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Monday  July 12, 1010

: Priorities

"There are at least three aspects to the oil spill disaster."

And, in theory (if not fact), this is how the management/leadership of the response should be set up. There should be three command centers (hey! I'm a Marine!) established with a clear leader afforded with the authority and responsibility for each of these aspects. Additionally, a superior command center also with a clear leader, holding the responsibility and authority, imbued with dictate to oversee and coordinate the overall response to the handling of the disaster. Each of these command centers should have liaison personnel distributed to the each of the other command centers to facilitate coordination and provide expertise in each of the aspects. Liaison personnel from local and state governments should also be welcomed into each of the command centers. (NOTE: this structure does not preclude BP from being the responsible and authoritative command/leader for the leak - nor any of other governmental agencies or private companies from being assigned to the other aspects. These 'command centers' do NOT have to be creations of NEW governmental agencies).

In my opinion, this is the major failing of the Obama administration - that is, to set up a coordinated response to the overall situation with delegated authority and responsibility to persons/agencies to implement the intent of 1) "stopping the contamination; 2) "containing the spill"; and, 3) "cleaning up and paying for the cleanup".

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Collector of Hot Sauce; Avoider of Yard Work

I wouldn't suppose a community organizer or even a Senator would have a lot of experience managing a crisis of this magnitude, but I am astonished that he had no one to tell him how it ought to be organized. It may be the anti-military bias of his generation and party. Or it may be that he simply thinks he's smart enough to take care of the situation and doesn't need advice? I confess dismay.

============

: Climate Modelers

Jerry,

Well the climate modelers seem to have figured out that if they can stay ahead of the Barnum Curve, they might be able to fool enough people into going along with this nonsense...

--Andy Revkin reports <http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/
10/climate-panel-struggles-with-media-plan/?emc=eta1>  at Dot Earth that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faulted in the past for a siege mentality, has urged its participating researchers to “keep a distance from the media” --and send any press questions about their group work to supervisors.

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/
climate-panel-urges-distance-from-reporters/ 

-- BDAB,

Josh

"Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened." —Winston Churchill

“The opinion of ten thousand men is of no value if none of them know anything about the subject.” —Marcus Aurelius

===

The blacklist

You should read the paper before calling this blacklisting.

The paper cited for blacklisting is, "Expert Credibility in Climate Change". The paper is available here:

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract 

The paper surveys the scientific literature and attempts to evaluate the scientific credentials of the Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACS) "accepters" and the ACS "skeptics". The paper concludes that the skeptics comprise 2 percent of the climate change scientific community and tend to be less qualified than the accepters.

The paper does not conlude that ACS should be accepted. The authors mention, as you have, that scientific group think must be considered. The point may be made, as you have, that it is worthwhile to research all the objections that the skeptical 2 percent minority make before committing vast sums of money and resources to preventing ACS.

The paper describes at length its methodology. It describes the methods be which it identified scientists as skeptics and accepters. It describes the statistical techniques which it used to evaluate the qualifications of the skeptics and the accepters. To be completely transparent, the paper includes a link to all the scentist's names, both skeptics and accepters.

Professor Tipler, an ACS skeptic, was included in the list of skeptics. He finds this objectionable, referring to it as, "blacklisting". In reading the paper, it is difficult to understand what he finds objectionable. His name is included with others who he considers, in his words, "good company". No effort was made to defame him or misrepresent his views.

Brian Gulino

I see. Of course the paper had not a word to say about the arguments; the efficacy of computer models; or indeed anything other than "credentials". It is a list of "peers" if you like.

Publish those on that list at your peril. And you need not pay any attention to what they say.

=======

Nemesis Reconsidered.

<http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25420/

<http://arxiv.org/pdf/1007.0437v1>

-- Roland Dobbins

At least we have time to figure something out. If we live that  long.

============

'The woman assumed the identity of the rival parent, whose daughter was ahead of her own in the queue for Coleridge primary school in Crouch End, by signing up to a Googlemail address in her name.'

<http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/
standard/article-23854546-mother-
faked-identity-in-bid-to-cheat-girl-of-
school-place.do

-- Roland Dobbins

============================d

Letter from England

The new coalition government seems to be a fan of common sense <http://tinyurl.com/2uk74u5>

 Mandelson's criticism of the New Labour prime ministers. Blair was unable to handle Brown, and Brown was sometimes unhinged. <http://tinyurl.com/36mmhws> <http://tinyurl.com/2uav4ey>

 Church of England compromise over female bishops comes unglued <http://tinyurl.com/32j2baj> <http://tinyurl.com/39rtncl> <http://tinyurl.com/2cnuh53>

 A visit to an asteroid <http://tinyurl.com/2endkg4>

 GCHQ has problems with minorities that make it hard for it to deal with terrorism <http://tinyurl.com/35eawsx> <http://tinyurl.com/2847lqu>

 The UK Borders Agency has a well-deserved reputation for being ham-fisted and completely without common sense <http://tinyurl.com/2aywvsk> <http://tinyurl.com/37hrmmw> <http://tinyurl.com/3y99cwx>.

 About the PNAS. Its peer-review practices are non-standard, and people who use it have learned to be careful. See <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proceedings_of_the_National_Academy_of_Sciences>

 Apparently Israeli academics have touched a nerve <http://tinyurl.com/2bnkw22> <http://tinyurl.com/34vlvt5>

 -

Harry Erwin, PhD, Senior Lecturer of Computing, University of Sunderland. Computational neuroethologist:

http://crowan-scat.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/mediawiki/index.php

============

'Howell objected that to dismiss him for teaching the Catholic position in a class on Catholicism was a violation of academic freedom and First Amendment rights.'

<http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/
illinois-professor-fired-for-giving-catholic-
teaching-on-homosexuality/>

- Roland Dobbins

Which sort of makes the whole concept of 'tenure' irrelevant.

==========

Scientists develop 'fake' genetically-engineered blood for use on the battlefield 

Jerry

People like to make fun of DARPA, but look: Scientists develop 'fake' genetically-engineered blood for use on the battlefield -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/
article-1293361/Scientists-develop-fake-
genetically-engineered-blood-use-battlefield.html  

They real thing, "pharmed."

Not revolutionary, but certainly transformational.

Ed

Astonishing.

I don't make fun of DARPA, I used to work for them (indirectly through Aerospace Corp.)

==

Jerry,

Kudos to Mr. Heinlein and Ms. McMasters Bujold

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1293361
/Scientists-develop-fake-genetically-engineered-blood-use-battlefield.html 

American scientists have developed 'artificial' blood that could soon be used to treat wounded soldiers in battle.

The genetically-engineered blood is created by taking cells from umbilical cords and using a machine to mimic the way bone marrow works to produce mass quantities of usable units of red blood cells.

Known as 'blood pharming' the programme was launched in 2008 by the Pentagon's experimental arm, Darpa<anip>

==========

LeBron's Tax Holiday 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142
4052748704075604575357232023445918.html 

"Mr. James figures to earn close to $100 million in salary over five seasons in Miami. According to an analysis by Richard Vedder, an economist at Ohio University, Mr. James's net present value tax savings on his salary are between $6 million and $8 million by living in Miami versus his home town of Akron. Professional athletes do have to pay other state taxes for the dates they play in visiting team arenas, but most of Mr. James's considerable endorsement income would be taxed at Florida rates."

Charles Brumbelow

Whatever happened to home town loyalty?

==============

Redevelopment

Jerry P;

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/07/09/BASD1EBKDM.DTL 

A point that must be considered is that the typical bureaucrat is not experienced in development of properties. The article from the SF Chronicle is a case in point. The large land holding, the former Alameda Naval Air Station, is thinly utilized by a few businesses who have detected a use for some of the facility. I happen to have direct knowledge of this usage. But this does not fall within the experience of bureaucrats and while some cities have planning departments, they are not in the business of imagining what an entrepreneur can imagine for a building or site. Many times the easiest thing is to visualize homes in an area and to contact someone who is in residential real estate development.

The City of Oakland has managed to contract individuals who have no capacity to develop several sites within that city. What they can and should do is to facilitate development with anyone who wants to convert part of a facility to a usage which is generally consistent with a general plan. For example the NAS in Alameda is suitable for industrial usage but would not be good for large residential development unless there were commensurate development of jobs on that island. The reason is that access to the facility is limited by the access through a tube under the estuary between Oakland and Alameda and a larger volume of commute traffic through the tube would put a burden upon the Oakland end of the system and jam an already freeway system as the commuters go to work elsewhere. So this is a simple limit to the equation: create opportunities for businesses that will provide jobs for Alameda. But the lure of simplistic solutions remains, as it is more complicated to work with individual businesses than with a large scale developer, no matter how wrong for the location their plans may be. So we need to have political leaders in charge who understand that the solutions to problems are not simple and require effort on their part. The city planners cannot operate outside of an intelligent set of guidelines, streamlined so that businesses want to work with them.

CBS

===============d

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday,  July 13, 2010

Busy getting the column done. Apologies

 

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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Another letter from England

I woke up to a number of interesting newspaper stories. (I've stopped reading the Times as it's now behind a paywall.)

Introducing the two-year university degree <http://tinyurl.com/2fwmtjb

Mandelson's memoirs: Blair thought Brown 'mad, bad, and dangerous' <http://tinyurl.com/2e9q2xd

Shots in Belfast: <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10624559>  <http://tinyurl.com/2vrovsj

Scope of anti-terror law review <http://tinyurl.com/39nwznm

Britain's public debt four times greater than previously admitted: <http://tinyurl.com/397mc3a

Sustained fall in UK living standards predicted <http://tinyurl.com/253quck

-- Harry Erwin, PhD "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

It's the silly season over here.

===========

And from England the answer to an eternal question:

This is normally nice an amusing for a Monday. Thought I’d pass it along:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38238685/ns/technology_and_science-science/?Gt1=43001 

Erik Carlstrom

And now we know

===========

Got Fusion?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/solomon1.1.1.html 

"Today, Chad [Ramsey] is 17 and attending the Georgia Governor's Honors Program at Valdosta State University <http://www.valdosta.edu/>  , which took an interest in him after his exhibit, "Furthering the Farnsworth Fusor," netted him four awards at the Georgia Science and Engineering Fair <http://www.times-herald.com/education/School-board-honors-science-fair-winners--1096779>  . Whereas Chad isn't the youngest person to build his own nuclear reactor – that'd be Taylor Wilson <http://www.sciradioactive.com/Taylors_Nuke_Site/Welcome.html>  , who started producing neutrons with his reactor at the age of 14 – he's on the verge of flipping the switch on what will be the smallest fusion reactor ever built."

Charles Brumbelow

This is all news to me. I guess I can't keep up with everything. Making neutrons is a big deal. I'm astonished that we don't all know a lot more.  Is there a story here?

===========

Jonah Goldberg's Columns

It doesn’t appear there yet, but most of Jonah Goldberg’s published columns are archived at

http://author.nationalreview.com/archive/?q=MjE5NQ== 

Check tomorrow.

A

===========

BP Set to Test New Fix For Leaking Well

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001
4240527487038346045753650904151
07512.html?mod=WSJ_article_LatestHeadlines 

What is interesting is that BP is going through a series of pressure tests, where if as they close valves the pressure fails to increase it means that the well is leaking into the strata below the sea bed floor. Now my understanding from the information released is that the well is cased with a steel pipe to the level of the bearing strata. And the task of Haliburton is to cement the well to prevent leaking into the strata. After you do this it is related that tests are done to assure that the cementing is sealing off the well from leaking into the sea bed. Which tests etc. BP is related to have rushed or ignored. If the well leaks, the pressure test fails to assure that the well is not leaking, then BP not only failed several safety functions, but ignored tests that would have assured the well would not leak once they had capped it off, which was their original plan. The well was not ready to deliver crude oil to a collection point and so would have been closed off until delivery piping etc. was in place. So it seems that they are not certain that the well would not have leaked if the original plan had been followed. Of course the explosion and fire, collapse of 5000 feet of well casing onto the blow-out preventer could have caused some damage near the sea bed, but how secure is the whole system as designed? One must wonder. Maybe the US should require them to collect the oil with the new fix, transfer it to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and let the Department of Energy sell it to help defray the costs to the country for the failure of their operation.

CBS

I follow all this with abated breath...

============

: Rome fell...

I'd read this before, but it was remembered to me by a friend and I enjoyed reading it again... http://mises.org/daily/3663 

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Collector of Hot Sauce; Avoider of Yard Work

Beware debasing the currency. We all learned that in college, but apparently they don't study that sort of history any longer. I read Gibbons and Macaulay, and I think I'm better for it, but they don't seem to be assigned any longer.

==========

Spies!

A fascinating article. I've always been intrigued with espionage - mostly, though, on the level of entertainment: Mata Hari, 007 and Ian Fleming, Wild Bill Donovon and the origins of the CIA, and any number of spy fiction novels... This article gives a good overview of why spies operate and the basics of what they can accomplish...

 <http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/
20100712_russian_spies_and_strategic
_intelligence?utm_source=GWeekly&utm
_medium=email&utm_campaign=1007013&
utm_content=readmore&elq=c72dfd970
c9541c1a60231e9e6036879

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Collector of Hot Sauce; Avoider of Yard Work

Most spy work is dull. Long time dull punctured with a bit of terror here and there... Nowadays the Internet and the Freedom of Information Act seem like good ways to get lots of what used to take secret agents...

===========

Believing in Science

Hi, Jerry. You write: “It's different in the educated classes. Most of them believe in science, and believe that "science" has settled the matter.”

And there’s the rub; the “educated classes” “believe” in science like Catholics “believe in” the Immaculate Conception or the Holy Trinity. But you and I both know that scientists don’t “believe in” science; science is a METHOD for arriving at truth by demonstrating repeatable facts. “Demonstrating”, “repeatable” and “facts” are three elements that seem to be entirely absent in the global warming debate.

Ken Mitchell

============

DailyTech - Nuclear-Challenged U.S. Turns to Europe to Meet NASA's Plutonium needs

Dr Pournelle,

Interesting article, but why can't NASA just use some fissile material from redundant warheads? Not that I'm objecting: the EU is only too happy to get all the dollars it can. I just wish that the politicians in the country I live in (Ireland) would wake up and realise that we need nuclear power, rather than their current obsession with wind turbines (I strongly suspect that none of our elected representatives has even the faintest idea what 'base load' is). Bizarrely, we happily buy fission-produced electricity from the UK over the interconnect between the islands (probably at a lower cost than from our own peat-fired stations and those ubiquitous windmills), while the politicos simultaneously lobby for the UK to close down its nuclear reprocessing facility at Sellafield, because it *might* leak something radioactive into the Irish Sea. Morons.

http://www.dailytech.com/NuclearChallenged
+US+Turns+to+Europe+to+Meet+NASAs+
Plutonium+needs/article19007.htm 

Best regards,

Alun

==

Dr Alun J. Carr
School of Electrical, Electronic, and Mechanical Engineering
University College Dublin

===========

Subj: NASA: Plutonium-238 not Plutonium-239

The isotope of Plutonium used in Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) is Pu-238, half-life 88 years. The isotope used in weapons is Pu-239, half-life 24,000 years.

Pu-238 is better for RTGs because of its shorter half-life, which makes it generate more thermal power per unit mass.

http://www.ne.doe.gov/neac/Meetings/
Apr212008/NEGTN0NEAC_PU-238_042108.pdf 

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Sloppy of me not to have noticed that. Thanks. It has been decades since I had anything to do with nuclear weapons designs or construction, and that only as an editor in Project 75, but I should have spotted that.

 

 

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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Iran's answer to Vitaly Yurchenko.

It's pretty obvious this guy was a double. Angleton wept:

<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/16/world/middleeast/16iran.html>

- Roland Dobbins

============

Toyota was Right

<http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB100014240527487038346045
75364871534435744.html

So their fix was the only one needed, and many of the accidents were due to driver error.

David March
 Transport Coordinator

Apparently the Highway Patrolman who was killed with his family had an accelerator stuck by the floor rug? I would not think he had panicked and the panic lasted several minutes. I would have thought an experienced driver would put the car in neutral, giving him a chance to coast to a stop, since you can't remove the key to kill the ignition. I still think there ought to be a way to simply kill the ignition. I'd rather drive dead stick without power steering and brakes than have the accelerator stuck on full on.

It's hard to predict how people will react in an unfamiliar crisis. Reaction times and cognitive skills change over time, too.

=========

The Chicken and the Egg, Which Came First

Jerry,

In Wednesday's Mail there was a link to an article that suggested that the Chicken came first.

I would propose that the authors were some what confused.

While I would grant that the first egg layer may not have come from an egg, I contend that the first Chicken came from an egg that was laid by something not quite a Chicken. Ergo, the egg came first.

Of course, intelligent design believers might argue otherwise.

Bob Holmes

So the debate isn't over after all! 

Seriously, doesn't it depend on definitions of both chicken and egg? Snakes and turtles lay eggs. The "shells" are quite different from chicken eggs, of course. I don't know what kind of eggs a platypus lays, but I suspect they don't have hard shells.

===========

"Closing up the village benefits everyone."

<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20100714/ap_on_re_as/as_china_
fenced_in;_ylt=AlrEEJZnSOM.E.t_
FHVDoHVzfNdF>\

--- Roland Dobbins

Opening an interesting debate. One might argue that the States have the power to do such matters, but the Federal Government does not. Interestingly, I suspect that in the US the argument would not be that the States have not such powers, but the Federal Government ought to and therefore at need does have such powers.

Strong government is necessary when there is real danger to public order; but of course strong government is ever a dangrer to liberty. The federal system was intended to allow strong government while limiting its scope. When the FBI and other Federal Police organizations were created they were intended to work with the states, and not to be an actual police force; a bit like Scotland Yard, whose inspectors were for a very long time still subordinate to the country chief constables, this in a system where all authority comes from the Crown.

Government power is more difficult to limit than its scope. And yes, of course this means that some local governments will abuse their powers.

We all used to know the price of liberty, but that is no longer popular.

============

July snow in Alberta 

Jerry,

Global warming? Global cooling? Or just weather.

July snow in Alberta.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/travel/
July+snow+torrential+rains+pound+province/
3275110/story.html 

Jim

And in Los Angeles our June Gloom extended well into July, but now it is 107 in the San Fernando Valley. Meanwhile the Sun remains quiet. I don't think anyone's models are useful.

==

Concerning the Climate Blacklist:

My mind is kind of boggled by the study cited. They chose their “sample” by taking the names off lists of scientists who signed statements supporting or opposing the AGW concensus, plus the IPCC AR4 working group contributors were added as supporters. Then they compared the expertise of the two groups. They can perhaps draw conclusions as to the relative expertise of people who sign petitions, but they didn’t do that – they actually state as a conclusion that 97-98% of climate experts agree with the AGW consensus. And that’s how it’s referenced currently in Wikipedia,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

Perhaps it didn’t occur to them that not everyone is willing to sign such a public statement, particularly if it disagrees with the well-known consensus of one’s community?

I presume the article and study are peer-reviewed, but the incompetence involved is incredible.

mkr

The treatment of "deniers" is rather interesting. What isn't discussed is the science and evidence. But then one doesn't expect that.

==========

Subj: Bechtel teams with Babcock & Wilcox on Small Modular Reactors

http://www.bechtel.com/2010-07-14.html 

>>Babcock & Wilcox Nuclear Energy, Inc., (B&W NE) and Bechtel Power Corporation today announced they have entered into a formal alliance to design, license, and deploy the world’s first commercially viable Generation III++ small modular nuclear power plant. ...<<

's 'bout time!

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Hurrah.

==

Got Fusion?-Further information

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

You make reference in your Wednesday Bastille Day news to this:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/solomon1.1.1.html 

and you ask:

This is all news to me. I guess I can't keep up with everything. Making neutrons is a big deal. I'm astonished that we don't all know a lot more. Is there a story here?

Indeed it is news. A pity that those who claim to be the media haven't been following it, with the possible exception of a very occasional squib from MSNBC.

While I agree with you that generally, wikipedia is uneven, in this case, they present sufficient information to be able to learn more. For example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor 

Of more interest is the fact that the late Dr. Robert Bussard (of Bussard Ramjet fame) had been continuing work on the Fusor up until the time of his death

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Bussard 

Of more importance, at least to me, is the fact that Dr. Robert Bussard's work is being continued by Dr. Richard Nebel of Los Alamos

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/05
/interview-dr-richard-nebel-of.html 

I would like to know what's been happening lately, but it seems that no one is following this story. Pity.

Very truly yours,

Bernard Brandt

Bussard was an old friend who sometimes came by Chaos Manor for breakfast, but I have not followed what happened to his work after his death. Perhaps some readers know more on this. The last time I saw Doc he said "The problem is that all the easy stuff has been done. It's hard now." He meant physics specifically, but his suggestion was that we are up at the top knee in the technology S-curve and we don't know where the new S  Curve begins. We were going to talk about this more, but that didn't happen, largely because we both got cancer at about the same time. I survived mine. Doc was about my age.

================

Britain's public debt

A correspondent wrote:

Britain's public debt four times greater than previously admitted: <http://tinyurl.com/397mc3a

£4 trillion is about $6 trillion dollars. That is very nearly $100,000 per inhabitant in the U.K. (Not per family or per taxpayer...per inhabitant.)

A family of four's share is $400,000 today. With an interest rate of 2% and no more deficit spending that family of 4 will owe nearly a half million dollars in 10 years.

On top of that, what are the odds that the British government will magically suddenly balance their budget and eliminate deficits?

A much lower standard of living, inflation, higher taxes, rationing and currency devaluation will ultimately be the way to get out of such levels of debt. Who's up for that?

John Harlow, President BravePoint

The problem with socialism is that you run out of other people's money, and after a while the work ethic sort of vanishes as everyone wants to get in on it. The result is Detroit. Worldwide.

We sow the wind.

==========

Fritz Leiber

http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB100014240527487039641045
75335074084796494.html?mod=
WSJ_article_MoreIn_Books 

"We've seen the disturbing videos of oil gushing up from aquatic depths, the unsettling maps of our spoiled sea, and the troubling pictures of pelicans covered in crude. It isn't hard to despair for the Gulf of Mexico.

"Yet things could be much worse, at least in the vivid imagination of the author Fritz Leiber (1910-1992). In his 1964 short story "The Black Gondolier," petroleum threatens humanity not as a mindless environmental hazard but as a sentient menace. As one character speculates, what if man hadn't found oil, but "oil had found man"? What if the dark ooze "had thrust up its vicious feelers like some vast blind monster, and finally made contact"?"

Charles Brumbelow

It's a good article about Fritz. He lived in the LA area until his wife Jonquil died, and we saw him at reasonable intervals, and infrequently when he visited LA. He and his wife Jonquil both had drinking problems. That's fairly common with writers, alas. It was my understanding that Fritz's father was better known for performing as Othello, not Iago, but that may be a false memory.  Fritz used to be active in LASFS and acted in a couple of early LASFS-made short clips. He loved to act. I recall him in Chicago in 1962 devising a costume as "King of the Spiders" out of what he had in his pockets. I

I always enjoyed his company. There were stories about his living in poverty in San Francisco, but I had dinner with him in the late 1980's in San Francisco and he insisted on taking me to an expensive restaurant, and in the conversation he said he was doing pretty well, actually. He lived in a poor area but said he always ate out and it didn't matter. I tried to pay for the dinner since my trip was on the BYTE expense account, but I was never given the chance: he had an account and no logarismo was ever presented.

We used to have a saying: if there's a great story with a strange twist and you can't remember the author, it's probably Fritz Leiber.

 

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Friday,  July 16, 2010

Bone Buying and Art,

Jerry,

I feel like I have been sucked into some societal black hole. What is up with this?!

Sue

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2010/07/15/AR2010071506698.html 

The niche bone industry, in all its Gothic magnificence, does a small but steady trade. In the market for a coccyx, perhaps, or a tibia/fibula matching set? You might stop by -- or visit the Web sites of -- Skulls Unlimited International <http://www.skullsunlimited.com/> (based out of Oklahoma City), Maxilla & Mandible <http://maxillaandmandible.com/> or Evolution <http://theevolutionstore.com/> (New York City), or the Bone Room <http://www.boneroom.com/> (Berkeley, Calif.), whose site offers everything from assembled skeletons to pathological skulls displaying the effects of disease. One helpful prompt: "Need just a vertebra?"

A complete arm at the Bone Room will set you back around $650; individual carpals can be purchased for $10 a pop. Just now on eBay: a pearly cranium, sold with its own carrying case, current bid $779. The item description notes that the skull is "used."

I have no idea. A morbid taste for bones? 

===========

Climate Talk

Jerry,

Can you comment on the following which comes from a purportedly conservative columnists?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/
2010/07/15/bad-science-global-warming-
deniers-are-a-liability-to-the-conservative-cause/ 

Question?

I believe you have discussed this before.

The question is, regardless of whether or not the climate is changing due to mankind or as a part of a normal cycle, isn't it still prudent to come up with alternatives to fossil fuels (which are both polluting and limited in supply)?

Yours truly, Michael Frank

Of course it's a good idea to come up with alternatives to fossil fuels. I have been saying that ever since my "America's Looming Energy Crisis" articles in American Legion and other places in 1974. The question is one of economics and costs. I would also be a lot more impressed with the AGW argument if it spent more time explaining to me how it measures the temperature of the entire Earth over a period of a full year to an accuracy of one degree Centigrade. I don't believe you can do that, and since most of the data they show to support their position is in the order of tenths of a degree, I find it hard to believe that's justification for spending trillions of dollars on "green" alternatives that so far have produced essentially no jobs and darned little actual power.

I can make a case for the possibility of a new outbreak of Black Death, and I think it is prudent to examine ways to act if Plague strikes; but I would not think it prudent to spend several trillion dollars on Black Death Prevention.  As tio alternative power, I always thought that we have that. It's called nuclear power. The French have figured that one out.

=============

Pete duPont sets the cat among the pigeons, says what many Democrats think, but none can bring themselves to say.

<http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB10001424052748704518904575
365482705270718.html>

--- Roland Dobbins

I much enjoyed working with Pete when he was publisher of Intellectual Capital.

==============

: Midweek News from England 

More stories in the press:

Guardian article on Mandelson memoirs: "Peter Mandelson on Brown: 'We were in a pit of debt. And we kept on digging'" <http://tinyurl.com/23mqrjv>  Apparently Brown insisted on fiddling the economists' forecasts.

Graduate tax proposal: <http://tinyurl.com/2w7quo9>. 

UK involvement in the torture of its citizens: <http://tinyurl.com/2g4848o

Music copyright discussion: <http://tinyurl.com/37xyrm6

-- Harry Erwin, PhD

==

I woke up to a number of interesting newspaper stories. (I've stopped reading the Times as it's now behind a paywall.)

Introducing the two-year university degree <http://tinyurl.com/2fwmtjb

Mandelson's memoirs: Blair thought Brown 'mad, bad, and dangerous' <http://tinyurl.com/2e9q2xd

Shots in Belfast: <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10624559>  <http://tinyurl.com/2vrovsj

Scope of anti-terror law review <http://tinyurl.com/39nwznm

Britain's public debt four times greater than previously admitted: <http://tinyurl.com/397mc3a

Sustained fall in UK living standards predicted <http://tinyurl.com/253quck

-- Harry Erwin, PhD

==============

Journalism Needs Government Help

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100
014240527487046298045753247826
05510168.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h 

Have the salt shaker handy while reading this...

Charles Brumbelow

I thought we already had a government press. And the real trick to listening to National Public Radio is to try to figure out what really happened without going to another source. Government help is government control, of course. What we need is more indifference.

===============

The calm before the solar storm?

"The sun is finally emerging from one of the deepest solar minimums in recent history and could be heading toward an unusually active period in its eleven-year cycle <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle>  over the next few years <http://in.yfittopostblog.com/2010/06/09/will-the-earth-blackout-in-2013/>  :"

I thought the solar mimimum was in its early stage...

Charles Brumbelow

I am hardly an expert on solar cycles but several readers are. What concerns me is that the great flare of 1859 happened in a time of quiet Sun, and from what evidence I have seen, such events happen every couple of hundred years. Perhaps that is the end of the world predicted by the Mayans in 2012?

===========

NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day Archive

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html 

Charles Brumbelow

=============

Google and Congress

Jerry,

I find this amusing in several senses. First, google is not the first to do this sort of thing. An activity known as 'wardriving' has been occurring for sometime. This activity entails mapping of all unsecured wireless networks on the planet. The United States, Canada, Europe, Israel, and Japan were completely mapped out in 2005 or earlier. Other cities have greater or lesser measures of coverage in 2010. Now, this is done so that people like me can piggy back on any open networks and save fees and hassles connecting.

However, one could--as google has been doing--do a lot more than look for unsecured networks. One could take all the information out of the air and read the packets. If google is really nasty, they can even packet sniff and crack the encryption algorithms of the wifi networks and access encrypted information--which is illegal in most countries. I find this latest article interesting in another sense. The latest article involves Congress. That's right, Congress. Who else has been checking out Congressional wifi packets for the last decade or so? As you may know, the spies do not feel the law applies to them...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8802741.stm 

-- BDAB,

Josh

==============

Laffer curve

The comment on the Laffer curve Friday brings to mind another probable truth: the tax rate which yields maximum return to the government undoubtedly depends on other societal and economic assumptions as well.

I think I've previously stated as an unproven (by me) theorem that the most robust economy is the one where every individual works to maximize the value returned to them individually (elsewhere in discussions here in the past week this has been labeled "pursuit of happiness), where "value" is subjective and includes non-economic returns. The theorem assumes that (a) no other individual is actively working to harm anyone (delivery of a better product, yes; delivery of a bullet to the more effective producer, no -- thereby curtailing the "human flesh in the streets" condition); and, (b) that in particular that no individual is introducing false data ("financial fraud") into the system.

Any deviation from those assumptions represent either nepotism, fraud, theft, or murder (thereby covering most of the Ten Commandments as they deal with the relation between persons rather than the relation with God, and justifying the virtues of the former Judeo Christian Western culture), or a " command economy" which seeks on some (any) scale to replace some point of individual choice with fiat.

Different tax assumptions (progressive income tax, flat tax, fair tax, vat, traditional sales taxes, property taxes, inventory taxes, use taxes, etc.) will shift the tax rate which yields the maximum. So will the extent to which the deviations from the basic assumptions limit the economy.

Jim

============w

f

g

 

 

 

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Saturday, July 17, 2010

small nuclear reactors 

Greetings!

I would assume that Babcock & Wilcox are quite competent at building small reactors. In the early 80's, the company I was working for did a mock up weld for a liquid sodium cooled reactor (Clinch River) at B&W's nuclear fab shop in Barberton, Ohio. At the conclusion of this "test", we were given a quick tour of the facility. At the time they were working on two reactors for submarines and one for an aircraft carrier. They were also fabricating the steam generators. I do not know who else builds these things, but I do know that B&W has been actively doing this stuff for years. Though the technology has changed some, the expertise is there. I am unsure of what Bechtel is bringing to the party.

best regards

Steve Mackelprang

The relevant point being that we have been making portable nuclear fission reactors for decades. They run submarines and warships. We also experimented with nuclear merchant ships, but it didn't work well. The economics were close -- given current fuel prices nuclear is probably cheaper -- but there were all kinds of regulations and restrictions and coutires forbidding the ships to enter their harbors, and agitation, and -- anyway, there are no more nuclear merchant ships in commission. Some day. Perhaps.

============

Believing in Science

"the “educated classes” “believe” in science [of global warming] like Catholics “believe in” the Immaculate Conception or the Holy Trinity."

Actually, insofar as the Trinity is concerned, I can give a rational argument, based on prior theorems demonstrating that God is a rational being, and so that there is in God something analogous to intellect and will. I don't know that global warming is quite up to that level. <G>

MikeF

============

Thermosphere Shrinks 

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/16/nasa.upper.atmosphere.shrinking/index.html?hpt=Sbin 

Scientists baffled by unusual upper atmosphere shrinkage by Derrick Ho

<snip>

An upper layer of Earth's atmosphere recently shrank so much that researchers are at a loss to adequately explain it, NASA said on Thursday.

The thermosphere, which blocks harmful ultraviolet rays, expands and contracts regularly due to the sun's activities. As carbon dioxide increases, it has a cooling effect at such high altitudes, which also contributes to the contraction.

..

The collapse occurred during what's known as a "solar minimum" from 2007 to 2009, during which the sun plunged into an unprecedented low of inactivity. Sun spots were scarce and solar flares were nonexistent, NASA reported.

Still, the collapse of the thermosphere was bigger than the sun's activity alone can explain.

..

The abnormal change in the thermosphere may also affect other layers of the atmosphere, and though less certain, can result in slight disruptions of satellite communications, including global-positioning system signals, Solomon said.

Emmert said there were still other possibilities unaccounted for that could have contributed to this phenomenon.

"It could be that we're underestimating the effects [of carbon dioxide] somehow. It could be because there were some physics that we're missing in the region of the atmosphere below the thermosphere, which quickly affects the thermosphere," he said.

</snip>

So, something unusual happened to the atmosphere that they can't explain or understand. I thought after all the IPCC bruhaha and AGW stuff that the "science" was all settled and we knew everything about the atmosphere. How could the Sun and carbon dioxide and "something unknown" possibly have any effect of it?

Braxton Cook

============

Michael Frank's letter

Hello Jerry,

A couple of points: First, while Mr. Frank specifically solicited YOUR comments on the linked article, a good deal of supplementary opinion on the column has been provided by other readers of the column and may be of interest to Mr. Frank.

Second, your commentary was spot on, except that the hokey precision with which we are purportedly able to measure the 'Annual Temperature of the Earth' that you cited is actually more egregiously hokey than you reported. NASA felt perfectly confident in citing an Annual Temperature of the Earth to a precision of 1/1000 degree F. when they declared 1998 to be the hottest year ever (58.496 deg F.), beating the previous record held by 1995 (58.154 deg F.). Or if not PERFECTLY confident, at least confident enough to provide a press release citing those figures.

Now you and I both know that there is no way that anyone could measure the annual temperature of the building lot that your house sits on to a precision of 1/1000 degree, C or F, let alone that of the earth as a whole. We may not be climate experts but we can be confident that we share our ignorance with those who pretend that they have measured the Annual Temperature of the Earth to a precision of 1/1000 degree. Or those who claim to have deduced the temperature of Siberia with sub degree precision, over hundred year time spans predating the invention of the thermometer, from the growth rings of a single tree, as have the recognized climate experts, in authoritative, peer reviewed journals.

Bob Ludwick

==========

NASA 

Jerry,

Congress appears to have reversed the Administration's cancellation of the Constellation program, to some degree.

http://www.waff.com/Global/story.asp?S=12821311 

<snip>

As part of the senate committee's proposal, NASA will have until December of 2016 to design, develop, and fly a new spacecraft to the International Space Station and beyond.

They would use the shuttle and the Ares 1 workforce to make that happen. <snip>

Jim

I knew the Standing Army would be rescued somewhere along the line.

==========

Agree? 

Jerry,

Whether you agree or not, a painless introduction to the strategic and tactical situation of Israel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytWmPqY8TE0&feature=player_embedded 

Jim

It summarizes the situation nicely, but of course it's Israel's view of the world. I won't try a critique. For a good statement of what Israel believes is necessary for security, this is a good source.

===========

Liquid Armour

Doctor,

In case you haven't seen this. Reminds me of Louis Wu's.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10569761 

Regards

David Maritz

Fabulous. But I know no more about it.

==========

Russian Spies and Strategic Intelligence 

Jerry

Stratfor's take on the Russian spies:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly
/20100712_russian_spies_and_strategic_intelligence 

Always interesting. Also, one of them approached Stratfor.

Ed

AKA the gang that couldn't spy straight? One does wonder what their mission was.

============

packs her bags.....

Jerry,

Looks to me like Gubment Motors might be a good play..

<http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/
2010/07/12/g-m-s-do-it-yourself-corvette-
engine/?nl=automobiles&emc=wheelsema2>

_jer

==============

Re: E-Paper Videos

Jerry,

You might find these brief demonstration videos interesting.

Cheap E-Paper Displays Coming to a Store Near You <http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/guest/25465/?ref=rss

Regards, George

Now that is interesting. This technology advances rapidly. When they can do the Sunday Comics on e-paper...

=================w

 

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Sunday, July 18, 2010      

Got Fusion? "Is there a story here?" - Better Believe It!

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Dr. Bussard's research is being continued by the EMC2 Fusion Development Corporation currently under contract to design, build and test fusion reactors using the concept called "Polywell."

The best source for information about the Polywell I have found is here:

http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/index.php 

EMC2's website is here:

http://www.emc2fusion.org/

I am almost astonished you don't know about this, but then, was it Francis Bacon was the last man who knew everything?

Best,

R. Peters

Doc Bussard was a long time friend, and I eagerly followed his research reports, but I haven't kept us since his death. I haven't the expertise to evaluate results. My last excursions into Fusion research were long ago, and the prospects didn't seem very good: for many years I was a strong supporter of fusion research and I still believe there will be a payoff one day, but for a very long time it was always "we need about 20 more years." I have heard that since 1970.

I would appreciate  -- I'd be overjoyed -- to find there is solid progress.

===========

Changing Stance, Administration Now Defends Insurance Mandate as a Tax

Wow. This comes as a real surprise.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/18/
health/policy/18health.html?_r=1&ref=politics 

"When Congress required most Americans to obtain health insurance <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/
diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/health_insurance
_and_managed_care/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier>  or pay a penalty, Democrats denied that they were creating a new tax. But in court, the Obama administration and its allies now defend the requirement as an exercise of the government’s “power to lay and collect taxes.”

And that power, they say, is even more sweeping than the federal power to regulate interstate commerce."

Health care as a tax and a power grab! Who knew?

John Harlow, President BravePoint

The taxing power appears to be infinite.

==========

NASA grows more cautious

Hello Jerry,

Apparently NASA is getting more conservative with their measurements of the 'Temperature of the Earth'; now they are only reporting it to a precision of +/- 0.01 deg C: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38263788/   . Apparently the National Climactic Data Center has records going back to 1880 (although IT doesn't) that enable it to report that the first six months of this year the Temperature of the Earth was 1.22 degrees F above the 20th century average, beating the old record, 1998, by .03 degrees F.

Of course the southern hemisphere is apparently freezing (see a selection of links on Robert Felix's site: http://www.iceagenow.com/   ), but we know that record cold is only a local weather phenomenon while record heat is clear confirmation of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming directly resulting from human production of CO2.

Bob Ludwick

If I had to bet on which way we're going, I'd stay with the trend: we're in an intermission of a Great Ice Age. It's Ice, not fire.

Fire and Ice

 Some say the world will end in fire,
 Some say in ice.
 From what I've tasted of desire
 I hold with those who favor fire.
 But if it had to perish twice,
 I think I know enough of hate
 To say that for destruction ice
 Is also great
 And would suffice.

-- Robert Frost

and I am certain that having Seattle and Detroit under fifty meters of ice would be a worse disaster than a five foot rise in sea level. I'm just saying...

==

Scientists baffled by unusual upper atmosphere shrinkage

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/16/nasa.upper
.atmosphere.shrinking/index.html?iref=NS1 

So now things are looking up, the answer is CO2, our old favorite. Not that they know why the thermosphere is shrinking, but it must, yes must, be the CO2. Now no one really knows, except we do know that the low solar activity brings on a shrinkage, and maybe, just maybe, what we knew about the extent of that shrinkage, wasn't actually true. One in a while I would like a scientist to forget grasping at answers that might or might not be the case, and just state that we will continue to observe the phenomena and then maybe revise our models. You observe and then postulate, not the inverse order. And you observe a cycle of events in order to fully understand what has happened, rather than grab a transient phenomena and worry about things that will grab headlines.

CBS

Don't hold your breath. See the character Carl in Escape from Hell, by Niven and Pournelle.

==

On That Subject:

Nova Scotia -  wineries

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I am not particularly qualified to comment on Climategate, but I did take note of one example you used in that column:

"I have seen strong evidence that Erik's son Leif went further west to what is now called Nova Scotia, and found a land he called Vinland because vines grew there. I am fairly certain that no one today would give the name Vinland to Nova Scotia."

A simple web search on "Nova Scotia Wine" provides information about that region's winery and wine grape industry.

Here is one of many links: http://www.winesofnovascotia.ca/ 

So, even today, Nova Scotia can still be called Vinland.

Cheers, and thanks for the many years of enjoyable reading you have provided for me.

John Edens

I have to say I hadn't known that. I've never been to Nova Scotia but all accounts I have heard do not include wineries. I stand corrected, and I'll take that datum point out of my calculations. On the other hand, I did fly over one of the Greenland Colonies some years ago, and it was still under ice, although I understand the ice is retreating there. I still do not believe it is as warm now as it was in the days of Leif Erickson, but then I don't claim to have data precise to a few degrees Fahrenheit or Centigrade. I do know that you couldn't support many people by dairy farming in today's Greenland even with modern technology.

And I very well recall the general consensus being that "The Ice is Coming!" at AAAS meetings back in the 1970's. And "The Genesis Strategy"...

======================w

 

 

 

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