Chaos Manor Musings

2011-06-03T16:00:01-06:00

Thursday View Roundup 6

2011-06-02T15:20:02-06:00

TSA to take over high school proms?

2011-06-02T15:10:02-06:00

TSA at High School Prom???

What??????? http://www.koat.com/r-video/27979990/detail.html

I said they were going into the streets, now they are in the schools? When are people going to say no? Will they come in your house and grope your daughters next? What is wrong with these junkies?

-------- Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC

This seemed puzzling enough that I tried to follow it. It led to an earlier article:

Saturday night, a certified TSA official will be at the Santa Fe High School prom to oversee student searches.

This all comes after two Capital High School students, sisters, filed a lawsuit saying they were groped by a security agent at Capital High School's prom last month. On Friday, the court ordered Santa Fe Public Schools and the security company ASI to provide at least one TSA certified person at the Santa Fe High School prom and the Capital High School graduation.

The restraining order also spells out the specific ways security can perform searches. It says a pat-down is only to be used if there are reasonable grounds and that pat-downs should not be used as a first approach for every student.

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S2122102.shtml

and then to this from TSA:

While we enjoy power ballads and disco balls more than anybody, TSA has not conducted pat-downs at any proms. Some are getting the story right, but others are predictably getting it wrong and we wanted to clear things up.

Here's the scoop: A school in Santa Fe that uses contract security (unrelated to TSA) is being sued over how it screened two female students. In a ruling stating that the Santa Fe School System needed to change its screening procedures, a judge initially ordered the school system to provide a “TSA certified” person to “supervise the searches.” While we appreciate the Judge’s confidence in TSA screening procedures, TSA’s transportation security mission does not allow us to provide pat-downs at the prom. The judge later allowed the School System to use state police officers instead.

As to why conditions in Santa Fe are so awful that a judge would order them to submit to the TSA, I have not a clue; perhaps some Santa Fe reader would enlighten us?

I found a number of assertions that this was an order by a Federal Judge, but I have found no citation of the case or ruling so I can't look that up nor discover why it would be a Federal matter to begin with. Apparently the school system tried to impose some security searches as part of Prom Night, one supposes in response to a perceived need. I fear I never thought about any of this. I never heard of being searched on prom night, not when I was in school and not when my four boys were in school. It just didn't happen. There must have been incidents, either in Santa Fe or nationwide causing enough concern to make it look like a good idea to the Santa Fe school system. My neighbors daughter goes to her Prom this weekend; I'll have to ask whether they do this kind of thing in Los Angeles schools. I'm pretty sure they don't at Notre Dame, but again I may be well behind the times.

In any event the Santa Fe school system mandated searches and hired a private security firm to conduct them, and some of the Prom ladies sued the private agents, and a judge -- all the reports say a Federal judge but it seems unlikely -- ordered that future searches be supervised by TSA or TSA supervisors or some such, presumably on the grounds that TSA is expert on how to do effective but non-tort-injurious searches. (I presume the court has some evidence for that presumption.) But all this is speculation and is taking more time than it is worth. This isn't a national plot to have TSA take over high school Prom searches. It might be a local judge not too familiar with TSA trying to settle a perplexing matter. But that's a guess.

As to why we might not want to cut our defense budget too much:

2011-06-02T15:20:01-06:00

As to why we might not want to cut our defense budget too much:

Press Trust of India
ISLAMABAD, 19 MAY:

In the wake of the US raid in Abbottabad that killed Osama bin Laden, China has “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China”, a media report claimed today.

The warning was formally conveyed by the Chinese foreign minister at last week's China-US strategic dialogue and economic talks in Washington, The News daily quoted diplomatic sources as saying. China also advised the USa to “respect Pakistan's sovereignty and solidarity”, the report said. Chinese Premier Mr Wen Jiabao informed his Pakistani counterpart Mr Yousuf Raza Gilani about the matters taken up with the US during their formal talks at the Great Hall of the People yesterday. The report said China “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China”. The two premiers held a 45-minute one-on-one meeting before beginning talks with their delegations.

http://www.thestatesman.net/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=370105&catid=35

Of course the days when the US and Pakistan (and Iraq and Iran and UK and Turkey) were in a NATO-like formal alliance against both China and the USSR are long over (CENTO ended in about 1980); still, this is a warning. If China is looking for a causus belli (unlikely at the moment) there are junior officers at Nellis capable of providing one any day of the week...

Thursday Mail Roundup 6

2011-06-02T15:10:03-06:00

E. coli outbreak in Europe

2011-06-02T13:10:12-06:00

Subj: E. coli outbreak in Europe

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/06/02/new-strain-e-coli-in-europe/

It has been determined that the particularly virulent strain of E. coli currently impacting Europe contains genes from at least two previously known strains of the bug plus genes from at least one additional source making it more toxic.

The article emphasized natural gene transference mechanisms. But as the victims (and body counts) increase, non-natural mechanisms may begin to be considered, particularly as there is still a lot of question about vectors.

I saw the first suggestions of the latter from a correspondent yesterday. We'll see how things develop today.

Jim

Coincidentally -->

Considering that the E.coli has got to be one of the most studied and documented bugs around, I was wondering......

How long would it take for a determined garage microbiologist to breed a strain of e. Coli that is particularly virulent and resistant to common antibiotics. "Distribution" wouldn't be a problem as e.Coli is also a pretty hardy bug.

Hardly an original thought I'm sure. Frank Herbert did it some thirty years ago with The White Plague.

Chuck

Fortunately that's likely to be harder than you think; on the other hand, Mother Nature is pretty good at that sort of thing. MRSA anyone?

Pain Announced

2011-06-02T13:10:11-06:00

Pain Announced

Jerry,

Here it is, as we said it would be:

<.> The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London. </> http://www.cnbc.com/id/43239586

<.> Wall Street is having a hard time figuring out what to do now that the U.S. economy appears to be sputtering and yields are so low, Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, told CNBC. </> http://www.cnbc.com/id/43236764

------- Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC

Wall Street is always happy to have the Fed print money and hand it to them. When that stops the panic comes.

We might try things that have worked in the past. Anti-trust (banks, communication companies, etc.) to prevent concentrations and encourage competition; cutting back on regulations (let competition work; stop doing needless things like paying grown people as federal inspectors to investigate stage magicians who use rabbits in their acts; make it easier to start jobs and hire people); and developing energy sources. Cheap energy plus freedom brings prosperity.

A totally unregulated market will end up with human flesh sold in the market place. Growth of regulation leads to concentrations of wealth and the kind of "Permit Raj" that kept India and China in the dumps for so long. All that is obvious -- but it's obvious to those who issue the permits, too.

Immigration Redux

2011-06-02T13:10:10-06:00

Immigration Redux

Jerry,

You have long been a rare voice of sanity in the immigration debate<?>, and ,after enough gnashing of teeth and deliberation, I have seldom found myself in disagreement with you.

However: you lately stated (again), that control of our borders is a necessary but not sufficient condition.....actually, I believe that over the long haul, it would in fact be a sufficient condition. But later you went on to state that "Deport them all and deport them now will not work".

This may be true, but on what evidence do you base the assertion? To the best of my recollection, this is a policy which (just like border control) has NEVER been put to the test.

Now, with a change in subject so dramatic that whiplash may be a risk: The mention of the poll concerning the best SF books never made into a movie leads me to ask:

Have the screenrights to any of your books been optioned or purchased? Many of them, like Footfall, seem nearly designed for a screenplay.

Hope you recover soon, and the warmest regards to you and yours,

Larry Cunningham

I thought I made it clear enough: it's just impossible to round up, detain, find a place willing to accept, and transport twenty million people in any reasonable time. It's legally impossible without such drastic changes to our court system that the debates on making those changes won't last for years and be both divisive and disruptive. It's financially very expensive. It's politically as near impossible as makes no never mind as soon as you run out of tattooed gangsters, serial killers, and general lowlifes and have to start contemplating people who have committed no known crime other than being here; particularly in the cases of those brought here before the age of consent and who have clearly assimilated.

There are clear cases for deportation: think those who came in after Katrina, lived ten to a room (or slept under bridges) and who took the emergency cleanup jobs that a great many unemployed Americans. But sorting those out from the local gardener can be expensive and non-trivial. We can and should set up procedures to make it easier for potential employers to verify legal status of potential employees. We can and should conduct more random raids just to encourage self-deportation. I have often advocated a reward, say $3,000, for taking someone across the border after they sign a "I won't ever fight deportation" certificate (this can include yourself). The problem with that is finding a suitable punishment for coming back: given what it costs us to imprison someone it's cheaper to let them stay here and collect welfare!

But until we close the borders discussions may, like the promise of amnesty, encourage a flood. It's hardly a simple question.

We get periodically get option money for most of our major works, but so far no one has picked up the options and I think they have all run out.

John

Letter from England with supplement

2011-06-02T13:10:07-06:00

Letter from England

A quiet week. There's a bank holiday on Monday.

Trains are not running between Scotland and London. <http://tinyurl.com/3mvhep6>

UK is training snipers to help put down the unrest in the Arab world. <http://tinyurl.com/3qfe35k>

Twitter rolls over. <http://tinyurl.com/3nu9egn>

UK economic forecast bleak. <http://tinyurl.com/3zos4sd>

And I have marking to do.

-- Harry Erwin, PhD

A Few Midweek Stories in the UK Press

Funding crisis threatens the UK NHS. Cum grano salis. <http://tinyurl.com/3njedu8> . The point is valid with the ageing UK population. Medical care is manpower-intensive, so it doesn't respond well to economies of scale. The NHS isn't the most progressive user of technology, nor the most efficient organisation in the world, but the Government needs to pay attention to the real requirements. Barry Boehm used to say, "Don't start walking until you know where you want to go."

Chinese attack on Gmail. <http://tinyurl.com/3e72b54> <http://tinyurl.com/3qpr7ca> These webmail services have always been a security concern.

UK asylum backlog cleared by an amnesty. <http://tinyurl.com/6efwrmq>

-- Harry Erwin

We can all be pleased to hear that

2011-06-03T15:50:01-06:00

We can all be pleased to hear that

The lawsuit filed by a Pennsylvania woman who claimed that she was sexually assaulted by a Donald Duck performer at Epcot has been settled. April Magolon sued Disney in December 2009 over the May 2008 incident, where she claimed that she was carrying one of her children and approached "Donald" for an autograph when he grabbed her breast, then made a joking gesture indicating that he had done something wrong.

Magolon's suit claimed that she had suffered "severe physical injury, emotional anguish and distress including, but not limited to post-traumatic stress disorder, muscle contraction headaches, physical harm resulting from distress, including, but not limited to acute anxiety, headaches, nausea, cold sweats, insomnia, nightmares, flashbacks, digestive problems and exacerbation of the physical injuries and other severe emotional injuries." It also claimed that she "suffered injuries of an unknown nature; she suffered severe pains, mental anxiety and anguish, and a severe shock to her entire nervous system, and other injuries the full extent of which are not yet known."

http://www.mouseplanet.com/9624/
Walt_Disney_World_Resort_Update

Magolon got her suit transferred from Florida to Pennsylvania

because traveling to Florida would be a hardship for Magolon, her fiance, and the doctors treating Magolon, who would all be testifying in the trial, and because Disney could better afford to conduct the trial in Pennsylvania than Magolon could afford to conduct it in Florida. This change of venue took the trial out of Disney's home base in Florida, where it would be more likely to prevail.

Terms of the settlement are sealed, but one may expect that they include payments for the lawyers, the clinical psychologists, and various other experts willing to testify to the terrible pains and damages suffered by April Magolon, who with her children and fianc� was visiting Epcot when a cast member in a Donald Duck costume (limited visibility; thick gloves with only three fingers and a thumb) fondled her breast. It's hard to assess how much money a terrible trauma like that to 27 year old unmarried mother might be worth, but it is safe to say that the entire cost of this matter to the tax payers is not trivial, and that perhaps this indicates some needless costs in the legal system? It may be true that "severe physical injury, emotional anguish and distress including, but not limited to post-traumatic stress disorder, muscle contraction headaches, physical harm resulting from distress, including, but not limited to acute anxiety, headaches, nausea, cold sweats, insomnia, nightmares, flashbacks, digestive problems and exacerbation of the physical injuries and other severe emotional injuries." constitute a wrong that needs a'rightin', but given that the governments -- Federal, Florida, and Pennsylvania -- are nearly bankrupt, is this a high priority item? Has no one ever recovered from having a man in a duck costume pinch her mammary and then apologize? Or are headaches, nausea, cold sweats, insomnia, nightmares, flashbacks, etc.. etc., such terrible suffering that we should pay for a system to remedy this horror while cutting appropriations for science research, space, the military, prisons, health care...

Perhaps some drastic tort law reforms might be an appropriate part of any laws raising the debt ceiling?

Sarah Palin seems to be taking Mitt Romney apart...

2011-06-02T13:10:04-06:00

Sarah Palin seems to be taking Mitt Romney apart, but she has not announced that she is a candidate for President. It's going to be an interesting summer.

Yesterday I noted that the Feds have inspectors looking for unlicensed rabbit...

2011-06-02T13:10:03-06:00

Yesterday I noted that the Feds have inspectors looking for unlicensed rabbit sellers. It turns out that's not all of the story.

I find that the rabbit police has at least 64 employees we could get rid of without losing much. They are now harassing stage magicians who have rabbits in their act. It would be legal to buy a rabbit, take it home, and feed it to a rattlesnake without a Federal permit; but if you use the rabbit in a show, you must have a Federal license, and there are Federal inspectors who scour the newspapers hoping to find the names of stage magicians who don't have Federal rabbit licenses. I understand you probably think I am making this up.

My source is http://bobmccarty.com/2011/05/25/usda-rabbit-police-stalking-magicians/. The worst of it is that it no longer surprises me that there are grown people, holding Government Service ratings, who are willing and eager to do this sort of thing for a living. Tell me what you did for your country before you retired, grandma? Now I live on pension...

Wednesday Mail Roundup 8

2011-06-02T00:40:08-06:00

Quacking about quicksilver

2011-06-02T00:40:07-06:00

Quacking about quicksilver

Dear Jerry

The chemical transport lessons taught by the Japanese reactor meltdowns apply as well to mercury emissions, natural and manmade.

Most of what goes up comes down not very far away, and a lot never goes up at all, so airborne and groundwater plume source sink trajectories create hot spots and relatively bald patches in both cases . Neither environmentalists nor apologists for coal burning like this mere fact of natural history , but that's the way it is. The shallow ice cores from Wyoming are close to California , and far upwind of Eastern US power plants, so it takes a mighty belch of Rust Belt smoke to register there,

The 1849- 1864 Gold Rush spike is likewise historically bizarre as quicksilver miners hell bent to sell to their gold washing colleagues burned heaps of cinnabar rock from Almaden county ( namesake of the Spanish quicksilver mining district) to get the stuff, loosing prodigious amounts to the air by this 16th century Best Practice. While modern mining annually matches the total natural flux, much of the latter is from hot springs and wet hydrothermal vents that release little to the air.

The most cautionary point is that the WSJ no longer has a science editor , let alone a science section, perhaps by editorial design, as some on the Ed Page find science metaphysically disturbing , while others, including the WSJ Opinion editor are on the record as disinclined to study it at all.

-- Russell Seitz

Osama a casualty of the Arab revolt,

2011-06-02T00:40:06-06:00

Subject: Osama a casualty of the Arab revolt,

Jerry

Spengler says Osama in Laden was a casualty of the Arab revolt:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ME03Df02.html

His headline was “Osama a casualty of the Arab revolt” and I read it as “Obama a casualty of the Arab revolt,” which is an entirely reasonable position. Heh.

Anyway, Spengler talks a bit about how the Saudis have been supporting al-Qaeda, but al-Qaeda has been getting close with Iran, which is leaning on Saudi Arabia. So, he thinks the Saudis decided to reveal OBL’s whereabouts to us.

“Bin Laden appears to be a casualty in the great Arab breakdown of 2011. We can only guess as to the details of his demise, and may never know the entire truth. But it is a fair conclusion that he was crushed between the tectonic plates now shifting in the Muslim world. That makes American self-congratulation over the killing a bit unseemly. American special forces may have been the proximate cause of Bin Laden's violent death, but the efficient cause is a great strategic upheaval that America does not yet understand, and is not prepared to respond to.”

It’s getting deep over there. Remind me again why our soldiers are in central Asia.

Springtime for Hitler

2011-06-02T00:40:05-06:00

Springtime for Hitler

http://www.strategypage.com/
htmw/htlead/articles/20110531.aspx

Arab democracy?

http://m.youtube.com/?rdm=4mr2f3
v4f#/watch?desktop_uri=http%3A%
2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%
3Fv%3DG2y8Sx4B2Sk&v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk&gl=US

Steve Chu

Surprised?

Old tech

2011-06-02T00:40:04-06:00

Old tech

Jerry,

The Army has an Old Tech solution for mountain warfare:

http://fcw.com/articles/2011/05/27/
army-ditch-robots-pack-mules.aspx?s=fcwdaily_310511

Jim

We did all our farming with mules when I was growing up. And there were no bulldozers; mules with slip shovels. It's not that old a technology. When I was in school we learned that Memphis Tennessee (Capleville was a few miles outside Memphis) was the Mule Capital of the world. I had both horses and mules to take care of when I was growing up.

TSA thefts

2011-06-02T00:40:03-06:00

TSA thefts

Jerry,

Theft by TSA inspection (two cases plus other inanities) http://www.boortz.com/weblogs/nealz-nuze/2011/may/31/dumbest-tsa-agent-ive-seen-and-crookedest/

Hun

Astonishing.

Federal government loosens its grip on the BlackBerry -

2011-06-02T00:40:02-06:00

Federal government loosens its grip on the BlackBerry -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
business/economy/federal-government
-loosens-its-grip-on-the-blackberry/
2011/05/27/AG7wW1EH_story.html

Dear Jerry,

After many years in and around Fed service, (that is NOT always an oxymoron!) I have heard this before. There is usually some kind of false start, then "they" figure out the can do it. There will be unintended consequences, but I can remember when ordinary land lines were controlled at work. That state of affairs was common until well after most of the workforce had personal cell phones and the point was moot.

It will be interesting to see what happens out of this.

Respectfully, Rose

Just to nail it down, I am not an anarchist, and I understand that there are legitimate activities of the Federal Government. When i was a lad the (Federal) County Agent taught how to do contour plowing and prevent gullying, which was important. And of course the government was needed to fight the War. But when I was a lad, the Federal County Agent was the most visible part of the Federal Government, too. We didn't have anyone from Washington inspecting my pet rabbits.

Sunday Mail Roundup 1

2011-06-01T14:10:08-06:00

Saturday Mail Roundup 1

2011-06-01T14:10:07-06:00

Friday Mail Roundup 1

2011-06-01T14:10:06-06:00

odd mail

2011-06-02T13:10:08-06:00

odd mail

Hi Jerry

A new take on cold fusion, time will tell

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7942 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer

"Quick" climate change http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC34304/

since I have honeybees, 10 or 15 years ago I believed in (man made) climate change, but not now. I have seen how "competent" that the scientific world is by the response to CCD (colony collapse) since, alas my bees have it. IMO it is a very nasty virus, and not anything else (this is 95% likely to be true).

be well dave

I have no opinions on bees, although I do think it is unlikely that cell phones are killing them. As to "cold" fusion, I am always interested in data points. And I note that the Navy continues to fund low level research.

Viking Real Estate Scam

2011-06-02T00:40:01-06:00

Viking Real Estate Scam

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

In case you haven't seen this yet:

http://www.reuters.com/article/
2011/05/30/us-climate-greenland-
idUSTRE74T52920110530

Of course, this is what you've been saying for years. I'd love to see this article spread far and wide!

Sincerely, Frank Luxem

When I was in Capleville consolidated school in the 1930's we learned about Leif the Lucky, Vinland, and read The Skeleton in Armor. All in a day or so. But they don't do that sort of thing in our expensive public schools now. In those days we had 2 grades to the room and 20 or more pupils to the grade, but we managed to learn reading and writing and 'rithmetic and a bit of history while we were at it....

Governor Palin: New Afghanistan Development Dangerous to NATO

2011-06-01T14:10:03-06:00

Governor Palin: New Afghanistan Development Dangerous to NATO

Jerry,

Regardless of ones position on Afghanistan, alienating the host government whose election you supported is stupid. Palin understands this, Obama does not. However; it appears that she would be willing to withdraw

http://conservatives4palin.com/2011/05/
governor-palin-new-afghanistan-development-
dangerous-to-nato.html

The Paleocon dream of retreat into Neo-Isolationism is coming true.

Jim Crawford

I would not call not being involved in three endless wars in the Middle East "neo-isolationism". It was one thing to go in to throw the Taliban out of Afghanistan. We did that. It is quite another to leave the Legions in the graveyard of empire to try to build a new society propping up the Mayor of Kabul as the Khan of Afghans.

I didn't much care for going into Iraq to begin with, back when it would be a few months and a trivial $300 billion. I thought we could get a lot more for $300 billion by investing in domestic energy production. But having got in there, staying around for a decade seems a fairly drastic alternative to "neo isolationism". Was it isolationism to avoid the territorial disputes of Europe while sending the Marines to the shores of Tripoli? But they didn't stay in Tunisia...

US military interventions ought to serve US interests. I do not know what our interest in Afghanistan might be. they make nothing we want. They don't want us there. Why do we want to be there?

The money spent on foreign adventures would be better spent on investment in domestic energy development. Low cost energy and freedom produces wealth. We are not getting wealthy out of our Afghan, Iraqi, and Libyan investments of blood and treasure.

Immigration

2011-06-01T14:10:02-06:00

Immigration

Dear Jerry:

Illegal immigration has always seemed to depend on X to me, X being the number of people allowed to legally immigrate every year. I have no idea what that number is, how it's determined or even who makes those decisions or what they are based on. But it seems only logical that if there are jobs here that Americans are not willing to take, and are not being filled by the current volume of legal immigrants, then the place to start is by increasing X. Granted drug runners and other miscreants will try to sneak in under any system designed to keep them out, but the vast majority who are simply coming here for work - why not let them? Nobody ever seems to talk about this side of the equation...

All the best,

Tim

The important thing is not to overwhelm the capacity of the Melting Pot.

Memorial Day

2011-06-01T14:10:01-06:00

Memorial Day

.The debate over the budget continues...

2011-06-02T13:10:01-06:00

.The debate over the budget continues, with the House voting not to raise the debt ceiling until there are cuts in spending. The Democrats argue that cutting spending will destroy the poor, throw grandma in her wheelchair over the cliff, and generally wreak havoc; the government is too important to be cut.

Eventually some solution will come, the President will promise "cuts" which will turn out to be slower rates of acceleration in spending with most of those being accelerated again as soon as attention is removed from them. The problem is that the spending cuts won't be real cuts and won't matter a lot anyway. David Malpass explains this tolerably well in today's article A Smarter Debt Limit Strategy.

What's needed is real cuts. Elimination of entire sections and departments. We should maintain a list of Federal departments that we can't afford even if what they do might in theory be desirable. Even more important is to make a list of Federal activities that we'd be better off without even if we could afford them.

I have a candidate for that latter list. A man in Missouri sold about 600 rabbits for ten to twelve bucks each in 2008 and 2009. He made about 200 bucks profit. The United States Department of Agriculture discovered that he did this without a Federal License. Apparently you can't sell bunny rabbits in rural Missouri without the permission and license of the government in Washington. The United States Department of Agriculture is on this case: they have assessed a fine of Ninety Thousand Dollars ($90,000.00). If he doesn't agree to pay this fair and reasonable assessment, he will be subject to a fine of $10,000 for each rabbit sold, although they might be willing to round this down to half a million dollars.

It started out as a hobby, a way for the Dollarhite family in Nixa, Mo., to teach a teenage son responsibility. Like a lemonade stand. http://dailycaller.com/2011/05/24/
usda-fines-missouri-family-90k-for-
selling-a-few-rabbits-without-a-license/

I don't know what else this branch of the United States Department of Agriculture does, but given this example of their work I am pretty sure we could do without it. I suspect the entire Department could be eliminated, but perhaps that's a bit drastic: but surely the Republic need not borrow money to pay people whose work is to assess a $90,000 fine for selling six hundred bunny rabbits.

We might even be better off without such people on our payroll, but I don't have to establish that: it's self evident that we can afford to dispense with their services in these hard economic times. Here is the Department of Agriculture on the subject:

Ensuring proper animal care and comfort is not just good business-it is also required by law under the Animal Welfare Act. Passed by Congress in 1966 and amended in 1970, 1976, 1985, and 1990, the law protects many animals not raised for food or fiber. It also sets stiff penalties for sponsors and promoters of outlawed animal-fighting ventures.

Many businesses that buy or sell warmblooded animals, exhibit them to the public, transport them commercially, or use them in experiments or teaching must be licensed or registered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Normal farm-type operations that raise, or buy and sell, animals only for food and fiber, and businesses that use only fish and other coldblooded animals are exempt by law; those that use only rats, mice, or birds are exempt by regulation. The rabbit business is exempt from regulation if the rabbits are intended only for food or fiber. If any rabbits are designated for use in the pet, exhibit, or laboratory-animal trade, the business is regulated. Certain other types of businesses are specifically exempt by law or regulation. No exempt business has to be licensed or registered.

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_welfare/downloads/aw/awlicreg.pdf

* * *

USDA spokesman Dave Sacks said the agency learned about Dollarhite after an inspector looking at a licensed facility found that some of its animals came from Dollarhite. Sacks said licensed businesses are inspected to make sure animals are properly cared for. http://www.ktts.com/news/122393359.html

This branch of the USDA may be doing something worthwhile in preparing this pamphlet and finding unlicensed rabbit sellers, closing them down, and assessing fines; it may be a Good Thing for the Federal government to prevent cruelty to bunny rabbits and Easter chicks and ducks; but do we need to go into debt to do this? Do we need to borrow money to pay USDA Spokesman Dave Sacks to do Public Relations for this department? In times of economic crisis do we need rabbit inspectors? Perhaps all this could be left to the States, as it was before the Great Society? And surely there are many other things done at a Federal level that might not be worth borrowing money to keep doing at this time? We ought to be looking for those.

The Office of Redundancy

Perhaps Congress should establish an Office of Redundancy. It need not be very large. Its task would be to assemble lists of people doing jobs the Republic does not need to pay for in hard economic times. If the Office looks to be overwhelmed with suggestions from the public -- if it appears that it might be overwhelmed by work -- that might be a significant development. I suspect the new Office of Redundancy could enlist the help of the public. We could have interns and volunteers, local volunteer offices manned by retired civil and military service officers looking for a way to continue to contribute to their country's welfare. The old Civil Defense organization could serve as a model.

After all, services that seemed like a good idea when the nation was rich and money was flowing into the Treasury and had to be spent, may not be so attractive now that we're broke. People are reluctant to lend us money. Even the Chinese are wary. We're now having to borrow money from the Federal Reserve to keep the government going and avoid the train wreck. We need to save money without throwing grandma over the cliff. I bet we could find a lot of people doing things that it's not worth borrowing money to have them do for us. We can start with the people who assess $90,000 fines for selling 600 bunny rabbits. Who knows what else we can find if we go looking?

Sociology and Other 'Meathead' Majors

2011-06-01T14:00:01-06:00

Sociology and Other 'Meathead' Majors

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142
40527023045208045763456320614343
12.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

Amen, and pass the trade school!

Phil

I saw this while reading the paper this morning. I refer readers to my Voodoo Sciences lecture.

Sunday View Roundup 1

2011-05-30T13:30:05-06:00

Yesterday's MAIL had an item about the e. coli outbreak in Europe . A reader...

2011-06-03T15:50:02-06:00

Yesterday's MAIL had an item about the e. coli outbreak in Europe. A reader wondered

My reply was offhand and brief: "that's likely to be harder than you think; on the other hand, Mother Nature is pretty good at that sort of thing. MRSA anyone?" What I was thinking of was developing a new strain; clearly I didn't give this sufficient thought. One of the advantages of being me is that my readers don't let me get away with being that sloppy.

We obviously run in different circles. I know more than a few garage biologists who could do just that, and it wouldn't require much time or effort. That's a big reason why we should be encouraging garage biologists rather than trying to stop them. The genie is out of the bottle. There's no way to regulate or control these activities, particularly by people with evil intentions. We need lots of good guys doing this so that we'll be well placed to counter any such actions by the bad guys.

Also, nature didn't have much to do with MRSA or any of the other multi-drug resistant bacteria. Hospitals did that, with a big assist from the agricultural industry routinely administering sub-clinical doses of various antibiotics to animals. They couldn't have done a better job of breeding antibiotic-resistant bacteria if they'd set out to do just that.

Robert Bruce Thompson

Bob Thompson is a long time friend and advisor, and author of The Illustrated Guide to Home Chemistry Experiments: All Lab, No Lecture, and definitely runs in different circles from mine. His Guide, incidentally, is something I can recommend to anyone who misses the old Gilbert Chemistry Sets that inquisitive kids of my generation grew up on (and for that matter for all those who never quite grew up but still miss them). But that's another story.

I got that this morning before breakfast, so I invited him to elaborate:

Well, I'm neither a microbiologist nor an epidemiologist, but, speaking purely as a layman, several things come to mind:

E. coli O104:H4, the serotype implicated in the European situation, isn't new, although many news reports have claimed that it is. It's known, but relatively rare. It's not difficult to obtain, and like all E. coli strains is pretty easy to culture.

Most E. coli serotypes are benign. In fact, by competition they prevent the gut from being colonized by pathogens. Like O157:H7, the toxic strain most commonly encountered here in the US, O104:H4 is one of a relatively small number of STEC (shiga toxin-producing E. coli). They don't actually produce shiga (dysentery) toxin, but the toxins they do produce are very closely related.

The issue of antibiotic resistance is interesting. STEC strains do their damage by producing a toxin. Living bacteria release that toxin, but dead ones dump it wholesale. Broadly speaking, there are two classes of antibiotics, bacteriocides and bacteriostats. The former actually kill bacteria; the latter simply retard their reproduction, allowing the body's natural defenses to deal with the infection. By the time symptoms of a STEC infection are apparent, the body is already carrying a large load of the bacteria. Although a bacteriostat antibiotic might be useful in retarding further growth of the infection-- assuming that it doesn't stress the bacteria enough to cause them to dump toxin--the only real solution is to allow the body to physically eliminate as many as possible of the STEC bacteria. The problem with killing them is that a dead bacterium dumps its toxin load, which is the last thing you want to happen while it's still in the victim's body.

As to garage biochemists, you grossly underestimate what many of them are capable of doing. Recombinant DNA is certainly an amateur activity nowadays-- I've done it myself and know many others who also have--although there's no need to go to that much effort if all you want is to cook up some nasties. Simple culturing in conjunction with forced selection can produce some pretty vicious stuff. And, of course, bacteria themselves are pretty good at modifying their own DNA. That's how we ended up with STEC in the first place; an E. coli bumped into a Shigella bacterium, a bacteriophage got them to shake hands, and they traded some genetic material.

I'm sure you have readers who are better qualified than I am to comment on this, so perhaps you should solicit them to do so.

-- Robert Bruce Thompson

[Emphasis added]

Guilty as charged.

Which tells me a lot. Greg Bear has been telling me for years that I spend too much time on physics and electronics, and I need to start from the beginning and learn modern biology since everything I learned in school is out of date. He's probably right. It's true enough that in the early days of my columns I had my mad friend, Dan Mac Lean, (his widow is a retired Professor of Medicine at USC) who used to muck about with biology experiments in his garage laboratory. Dan actually published some results under a house banner called E. Coli Press -- the press was a basement letter press on which he did quite professional if limited editions of things that interested him. We did some investigations of the USSR experiments in biological warfare, and the resulting disaster, and I did enough research to get an idea of some of the difficulties of biological warfare and weaponizations. I didn't put much attention into the matter of sheer malicious terrorism using biology. I should have. If you're going to pretend that you know everything, you have to keep up with a lot. But during the 80's I spent my time boning up on space, strategic defense, and other such stuff as well as making a living. See A Step Farther Out and Mutual Assured Survival, as well as revisions of Strategy of Technology. The goal in those days was to get out of the Cold War alive. All of which is an apology for not having kept up with what's going on in amateur biological capabilities.

Terrorists don't need the kind of precautions that weaponizers do. It's harder than most think to brew up nasties without doing yourself, your family, and some friends and neighbors in, but if you don't care... And perhaps that's easier now than it was last time I looked into the matter.

Anyway it's serious.

And Niven is here for lunch, so more later.

Immigration

2011-06-02T13:10:02-06:00

Immigration

The answer is simple - Low taxes, reasonable regulation of business, energy investment. The economy takes off, jobs for everybody. Then we go back to being the land of opportunity that welcomed everyone in.

This needs little comment. We can quibble about overloading the Melting Pot, but given energy and a low level of regulation, the Melting Pot can accommodate a lot of newcomers. Of course the trend is not toward a low level of regulation.

But there was a time when this would be the automatic thought of many of the American people. Of course that was before we handed over our school systems to unionized bureaucrats and multiculturists who hate and denounce American exceptionalism, so that the only route to a decent education for most Americans of any origin is to escape the public school system. There is more than one way to destroy a middle class.

It has not been a high production month. I have been laid out by something vicious....

2011-05-31T17:20:02-06:00

It has not been a high production month. I have been laid out by something vicious. I think I am recovering.

On my walk this morning I gave some thought to the immigration problem. The topic was inspired by a letter from a reader who persists in trying to convince me that there is something morally wrong with Newt Gingrich's observation that at some point we are going to have to think of ways to legalize some of the illegals currently here.

I understand what is upsetting about this. Any hint that there can be some form of amnesty enormously increases the incentives for others to come here illegally. Even discussing the subject can produce an increase in the flood of undocumented migrants aka illegal immigrants. The system is already saturated, and we should do nothing to worsen the situation.

It has always been the position of Republican -- and some, although lately fewer, Democratic -- politicians that amnesty cannot be seriously proposed or debated until the borders are closed. The problem is that even talking about it can worsen the problem.

Perhaps that should be the position to take: we won't talk about this until the borders are under control. It is the position that politicians ought to take, and Newt's speculations, while reasonable from a political philosopher, are improper for a candidate for office. Of course any move to close the borders will do the same -- get in now, they're cracking down -- but there's not much help for that. A comprehensive immigration policy must be implemented quickly and effectively, with crackdowns on employment and employers as well as illegal workers, along with effective control of the borders.

There are still problems. One is that it often costs more to punish criminals than to deport them. The high cost of imprisonment is very much part of the immigration problem. There is little incentive for the recently deported not to try again, and again, and again --- they know we don't want to jail them. It costs too much.

Maybe what we really need to work on is a means for punishment that is not cruel and unusual, but which isn't so expensive. There was a time when prisoners contributed to the economy and some prison systems made money, but labor unions -- naturally and in most cases rightly -- protested that taking jobs from free workers by giving those jobs to prisoners was unfair competition. That argument can and usually is carried way too far -- to the point of replacing prison maintenance with overpriced unionized civilian workers -- but it will be made and often made effectively.

I haven't any glib answers to this, but until we can find ways to punish without bankrupting ourselves, we will always have immigration problems -- as well as increasing crime problems. Criminal activity responds often to economic considerations. Criminals are not bright, but they can make elementary economic decisions. If you can do the crime you can do the time, and if it ain't a lot of time -- if you're going to be let out early because the prisons cost too much -- the incentives are headed in the wrong direction,

And I have to go write. But it's something to think on.

MEMORIAL DAY

2011-05-31T17:20:01-06:00

MEMORIAL DAY

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

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Saturday Mail Roundup 3

2011-05-28T17:40:03-06:00

The Ryan/Medicare/NY-26 Conundrum

2011-05-28T17:40:02-06:00

The Ryan/Medicare/NY-26 Conundrum

Jerry,

It would appear that I'm not the only one who might think that the voters may very well understand the Ryan budget plan's approach to medicare:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/
opinion/27krugman.html?_r=1&ref=paulkrugman

I realize you don't pay any attention to me, but Dr. Krugman's bona fides are a notch or two above mine; yours too, in the field of economics. That is the appropriate field for some actual insight in the federal budget, isn't it?

Bruce

The heart of Krugman's argument is:

Take, for example, the statement that the Ryan plan would end Medicare as we know it. This may have Republicans screaming “Mediscare!” but it’s the absolute truth: The plan would replace our current system, in which the government pays major health costs, with a voucher system, in which seniors would, in effect, be handed a coupon and told to go find private coverage. <snip>

And, by the way, the claim that the plan would keep Medicare as we know it intact for Americans currently 55 or older is highly dubious. True, that’s what the plan promises, but if you think about the political dynamics that would emerge once Americans born a year or two too late realize how much better a deal slightly older Americans are getting, you realize that this is a promise unlikely to be fulfilled.

I hadn't thought that it was at all unclear that the Ryan Plan ends Medicare for those under 55. It's hardly a secret. As to the second paragraph quoted, that's a political prediction. It may be true, but it's not an economic fact.

The economic fact is that Medicare as we know it is the deficit: if entitlements continue as they are the deficit become endemic, and the US runs out of money. It can't be sustained. We won't grow our way out of that debit. There's another effect: The United States is being transformed into an Entitlement society: you are entitled to the fruits of someone else's labor, or, if you are fairly productive, someone else is entitled to the fruits of your labor. By entitled I do not mean moral entitlement: I mean entitlement in the sense that armed revenue agents will collect the money from the productive and bureaucrats will give it to the Entitled. That is not the Republic I was born into, and it is not the Republic of the New Deal that was formed during my lifetime. It is not even the United States of the Old Great Society, although that was substantially different -- more entitlements, less freedom -- from the New Deal.

That may be the meaning of the NY 26 election: it was the death knell of the New Deal Republic as we knew it, and the announcement of a new Great Society to replace the Old Great Society. And that may well be what the future will look like. The problem with that is that we can't afford it. Even if the economy turns around it's not likely we can afford it.

Understand that I am very much a beneficiary of the current Medicare System. It was none of my choosing. Before I turned 65 I paid about $400/month dues to Kaiser (covering Roberta and me; the kids ceased to be covered under my family policy when they came of age), with reasonable co-payments. I was willing to continue that; but the day I turned 65 I had two choices: I could pay $1250 a month for the exact same coverage; or I could accept Medicare Advantage A and let Social Security/Medicare make the vast majority of my payments for me. There wasn't a lot of choice in that. Whichever I did I would continue to pay the Social Security Tax since I have income. Naturally I "chose" Medicare. Kaiser delivered the radiation therapy that saved me from brain cancer. I didn't make a lot of money the years that was going on. I haven't been making as much after that as I had before it, but I still pay into the system. I have no idea what my choices would have been under the Ryan Plan because I don't know what the Kaiser dues would have been had there not been Medicare Advantage.

I am very happy with Medicare and Medicare Advantage. I'd be quite happy if it continued forever. Alas, I don't see how it can. There just isn't enough money. I wouldn't have voted to establish Medicare as we know it, but I certainly benefited from it. The chances that those now under 55 will be able to sign up for what I have ten years from now seem rather low to me.

A reader says

2011-05-28T17:00:03-06:00

A reader says

This is horrific.

<http://scienceblogs.com/deanscorner/
2011/05/growing_a_brain_in_a_dish.php>

It is certainly disturbing. I reserve further comment until I know more. One might also reflect on the comments.

I was looking for something else buried in the dim past here on this site --...

2011-05-28T17:00:02-06:00

I was looking for something else buried in the dim past here on this site -- snake biles, if you must know -- when I came across the reference to this:

A View from the Eye of the Storm a talk delivered by Haim Harari at a meeting of the International Advisory Board of a large multi-national corporation, April 2004. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail309.html#eye I had forgotten that I had published it here. It is an analysis of the Israel/Palestine conflict from an Israeli scientist, and it says many things that need saying. When I published it I had less appreciation for the Israeli position than I do now. Much has changed since then. The analysis holds as true now as it did then.

Actually that entire mail week was good, with a long series of discussions on the Iraq War. Contributions by Dr. Greg Cochran. Monty, and many others. Letters from serving officers and nco's. And all of it fairly relevant now in 2011, if only because I told you so... Begin with The Arrogance of the NeoJacobins...

====

While digging around in the past I found this, which may be worth reading through the section on how the ARPANET saved GPS. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives/archivesview/view27.html#ARPA

Friday View Roundup 5

2011-05-27T16:40:02-06:00

Friday Mail Roundup 9

2011-05-27T16:30:30-06:00

Missing Mass found

2011-05-27T16:30:19-06:00

Engineering student cracks major riddle of the universe,

Jerry!

Stop the presses! Missing mass found:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/24/oz_
undergrad_finds_the_missing_matter/

And it’s not even dark.

Great Heavens!

More on immigration - or invasion

2011-05-27T16:30:29-06:00

Farming in Central California

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Dr. Victor Davis Hansen is a classicist and a National Review contributor who also owns a farm in central California -- not far from where I was born.

He has a troubling tale to tell about his last six months.

" I think I have a clue to what’s ahead. Here is an aside, a sort of confession of my last six months in the center of our cry-the-beloved state: December 2011: rear-ended by a texting driver; I called 9/11 and the police; she called “relatives” who arrived in two carloads. You get the picture. Luckily the police got there before her “family” did, and cited her. Still waiting to fix the dented truck.

March 2011: riding a bike in rural California, flipped over a “loose dog,” resulting in assorted injuries. Residents -- well over 10 in various dwellings --claimed ignorance about the dogs outside their homes: no licenses, no vaccinations, no leashes, no fence. Final score: them: slammed door and shrugs; me: ruined bike, injuries, and a long walk home.

May 2011: two males drive in “looking to buy scrap metal.” They are politely told to leave. That night barn is burglarized and $1200 in property stolen.

Later May 2011: a female drives in van into front driveway with four males, “just looking to rent” neighbor’s house. They leave. Only later I learn they earlier came in the back way and had forced their way in, prying the back driveway gate, springing and bending armature.

Later May 2011: shop is burglarized -- both bolt and padlock knocked off. Shelves stripped clean. It is the little things like this that aggravate Californians, especially when lectured not to sweat it by the academics on the coast and the politicians in Sacramento.

NB: I have been hit three times in the last 10 years: 1) driver ran stop sign, slammed into my truck, limped off, was run down and detained by me until police arrived; 2) speeding driver hit a mattress in the road (things such as that are rarely tied down by motorists in California), swerved, was hit, did a 180, braked, but still hit me at 45 mph head-on (survived due to the air bags of the Honda Accord); 3) rear-ended as explained above. But this time your wiser author, when the car rear-ended me at 50 mph, was driving a four-wheel-drive Toyota Tundra with huge tow bar in back; the texter was driving a Civic. Nuff said.

Such is life 180 miles -- and a cosmos away -- from the Stanford campus."

How can we put a stop to this?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Hansen has written on this before. He is a professor of classic history as well as a farmer.

This is not "migration" nor is it immigration; this is invasion, and it is the task of the National Guard to protect us from this sort of thing. Of course that is unlikely.

On Immigration

2011-05-27T16:30:18-06:00

Immigration

Jerry

Recent discussion of illegal immigration leads to the following random thoughts.

A. Technically, there was no "illegal immigration" at the time, since there were no immigration laws as such, but when the parents of my grandfather's grandmother came over during the Hunger, the Know Nothings acted as a sort of informal immigration control. Because the US had imposed various port fees while the British were subsidizing transit to Canada, a lot of the Irish who fled in 1846/7 went to Canada up the St. Lawrence to Gross Isle Quarantine. But crossing into the US was a problem. Consequently, steamboat captains in Lake Champlain would make some money smuggling Irish across the lake. Consequently, my grandfather's grandmother was born in Burlington VT, "six days after her parents reached the New World." I guess nowadays she would be called an anchor baby.

B. Of the 9004 students in the public schools of Northampton County [PA] for the school year ending 1 June 1858: 4,537 spoke German Only 3,149 spoke both English & German 1,318 spoke English Only The Superintendent reported: “But the difficulty lies not therein, as some superficial observers seem to think, because our children speak German, but because they do not speak English. It is not the presence of the German language which causes the difficulty, but the absence of English.” So geht's im Leben. When my mother was in parochial school in the 30s, German was still a required course in grade school. Even years later, she could recite the Vater onser in a broad Swabian dialect. Our parish had its last native-born German pastor when I was in grade school. As late as my grandfather's time, there were as many German-language newspapers as English in town.

C. When I was a kid, the Italians in town were still speaking Italian among themselves and the Lebanese were speaking Arabic among themselves, but English with everyone else. I notice the same thing among the Spanish-speakers at church. They will speak Spanish to one another, but with everyone else they will use English with greater or lesser facility.

IOW, I think the melting pot is working fine in my part of the country, mainly because i) folks ain't stupid and aren't all that eager to sequester themselves in a linguistic ghetto and ii) television and pop culture pretty much does what comic books and penny dreadfuls did in earlier ages. Then too, PA doesn't have as many institutions promoting the opposite as perhaps other states have.

D. Someone once asked on an internet message board why everyone should have to learn English, so I responded: "Weil alle Amerikaner moechten einander verstehen." She responded: "I don't understand what you wrote." And I said, "Exactly."

E. The Edison NJ schools had so many students from India that they tried to put them all in ESL classes taught in Hindi. That sound you hear is hundreds of Indian mothers stampeding to the school to protest. "This is America," they said. "They should learn in English! In fact, English is a national language in India, and we are all Gujaratis and Marathis and Tamils and Punjabis. We don't even speak Hindi." The schools got federal aid based on the number of students enrolled in ESL classes.

F. A friend of my daughter was born in Argentina, so in middle school she was put in Spanish ESL. The mother was outraged. She had brought her daughter to America at age 2 and she did not speak nor understand a word of Spanish. They told this Argentinian mother that it was terrible that her daughter had lost touch with her native culture; and the mother said the US was her native culture. Nevertheless, it took months to get her out of the Spanish language instruction. See E for reasons.

G. When my daughter was living in Yonkers NY a number of years ago, MacLean Avenue was called "Irish Broadway" and the quickest way to clear out the Irish pubs along the street was to walk in and holler INS! There is also an open border at JFK airport arrivals, although these usually come on visas and then stay on. Weirdly enough, the other end of MacLean Avenue was mostly Arab, and mostly legal.

H. A good friend in grad school was from Iran. (He now teaches physics in San Mateo.) He had been in the country for a while and had applied for citizenship, but had been awaiting disposition for years. Then he learned that there was a fast track system for minorities, so he applied for that only to be told that there were not enough Iranians in the country to be eligible for minority status. The idea of not being big enough to be a minority puzzled his mathematical soul. So he joined the Army. And while his eyesight eventually got him a medical discharge, his enlistment did get him his citizenship.

Enough rambling.

Mike

The Melting Pot works quite well when it is not overwhelmed. Bill Buckley used to say -- indeed to boast -- that America was unique in that anyone could study and learn how to become an American. You can learn Swedish, but that does not make you a Swede, you can live your life in France and not become a Frenchman, but in America you can learn to become an American. It's one of the great things about America.

And of course your point F points to the vulnerability of the America system: if assimilation is not the goal, the Melting Pot has a lot more difficulty.

Suicide of the West

2011-05-27T16:30:24-06:00

Subj: James Burnham's _Suicide of the West: An Essay on the Meaning and Destiny of Liberalism_

You mentioned James Burnham's _The Managerial Revolution_ and _The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom_, but I think _Suicide of the West_ is actually the source of the characterization of Liberalism as "a philosophy of consolation for western civilization as it commits suicide". It was first published in 1964.

http://www.chiltonwilliamson.com/books
/the_conservative_bookshelf_suicide_of_the_west.html

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Yes, I should have cited that. The other two were better known works, and Managerial Revolution was once widely taught in universities back when there was a diversity of opinion in those institutions.

Luna Base

2011-05-27T16:30:14-06:00

So, forty years later, NASA decide that what's really needed is a 4-man Apollo.

<http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/
may/HQ_11-164_MPCV_Decision.html>

Also, their definition of 'deep space' is questionable.

---- Roland Dobbins

The Moon is getting wetter, well, being discovered wetter

Jerry,

It turns out that the moon's interior rock is as wet as the Earth's rock http://www.cleveland.com/science/index.ssf
/2011/05/lunar_samples_show_that_parts.html . The water may not be quite able to be mined, but it sure would be left over after processing the minerals/ores (or its constituents). We keep getting more and more reasons to go back and the picture continues to get rosier.

Regards,

Jim Laheta

It seems clear to me that a Lunar Base could be reasonably self-sustaining. Hong Kong Luna?

Fukushima

2011-05-27T16:30:13-06:00

Japan nuclear disaster...

Just to remind you about what is "really" happening in Japan at the site of the nuclear disaster:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/
energy/nuclear/report-to-government-
confirms-three-reactor-meltdowns/?utm_
source=techalert&utm_medium=email
&utm_campaign=052611

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/
fukushima-update-very-bad-situation/57915

Things are worse than we thought...see, especially, Martenson's remarks....

steven.

I am not sure what is meant by "we thought", and thus "worse". The worst case on Fukushima was that it was multiple Chernobyl class events. It does not seem to have been as bad as one Chernobyl. Of course it was bad enough. It will be very expensive to clean up.

I have not seen new reports of off-site injuries.

Martenson concludes"

If I lived over there, I would get myself a sensitive radiation/dosimeter and I would be personally scanning all of the food and water my family consumed, and my immediate surroundings as I lived, worked and played. If levels beyond what I considered safe were detected, I would then leave.

If I lived in Japan I would be doing much the same thing.

More on Mercury Sources

2011-05-27T16:30:26-06:00

: Mercury and the WSJ

(Continuing a discussion that began in View)

the authors of the WSJ article on Hg and power plants have a article online with more detail and footnotes (some links no longer work)

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/
stories/papers/originals/mercury_fact_sheet.pdf

L. Nettles

Thanks

What US EPA thinks or once thought about global mercury emission

These estimates are highly uncertain. http://www.epa.gov/hg/control_emissions/global.htm

-Joe

Interesting...

Additional data on mercury:

USGS: http://www.usgs.gov/themes/factsheet/146-00/#sources non-quantitative discussion

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080629081932.htm

Considerable interesting data leads to this concluding <snip>

'That one vent of one volcano can produce 7 tonnes of mercury a year is astounding,’ said Oxford’s Dr Melanie Witt, ‘that’s considerably more than total industrial emissions of mercury from the UK – recorded at about 5.5 tonnes in 2000. It confirms our suspicions that volcanoes are an important part of the global mercury cycle: what we need to understand next is where this mercury ends up and what effects it may have on the environment.’<snip>

Re: WSJ claim about mercury http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2011/Q2/mail676.html#Thursday

I question the validity of the chart shown on this date.

First, the chart conflates data from a 1991 [ice?] core and a 1998 [ice?] core. [These could be tree cores.] Are these cores comparable? Were they taken from the same location?

The data on the chart suggest not. There is an overlap of about 3 years (approximately 1945, 1946, and 1947). For those years, the data from the 1991 core and the 1998 core differ.

Second, data has been withheld. Data from the 1991 core ends in the year 1947. Why? Data from the 1998 core were given for the years 1945 to 1998. Why did the analyst choose to withhold data from the 1991 core for the years 1948 to 1991?

Third, the analyst's choice of data evidences prejudice. During the years 1945 to 1947 -- when the data from the 1991 and 1998 cores overlap -- the analyst took the *higher* line; that is, the line from the 1991 core.

Fourth, the analyst's history is incorrect. The graph attributes an increase in mercury levels in the mid-19th century to 'Gold Rush' [Gold Rush (circa 1850-84 AD)]. The Wind River Mountain Range -- where the cores were taken -- lies in Wyoming. The Wyoming gold rush began in 1867. How does the analyst account for the increase in mercury levels from 1850 to 1866? Is he suggesting that the gold rush in California is responsible for an increase in mercury levels in Wyoming? By what mechanism was this accomplished?

Fifth, ... well, I have tired of this. I won't even deign to discuss the irrational conclusions the writer of the text reached. Correlation is not causation.

You took the better line of reasoning: this is a debate, not a foregone conclusion. But we cannot reason together if we cannot agree on the data.

This chart, too, is a lie. The choice is which God-damned liar will you listen to.

Trust everyone, but cut the cards.

Live long and prosper
h lynn keith

PS Please note that I have said nothing about the WSJ article. I have not read it and do not intend to. It may be a lie, which implies deliberate deception. Or it may be a mentira (Spanish), which implies an untruth rather than an attempt to deceive (enganar). Perhaps the WSJ article cannot withstand scrutiny. But neither can this chart.

Actually, it's not even a debate. Until we have some mutually agreed data, there's little to discuss. You can prove anything if you get to make up your data, and nearly anything if you get to select it. Science needs to consider all the data, and I don't think we have it all.

Moreover, I have seen too many policies based on selective data in this wicked world.

local vs global mercury volcanism etc

Hello Dr. Pournelle,

I saw Greg Cochran's chart and was struck by a couple things. I'm not in favor of more mercury than necessary, but I'm not convinced that an icecore from Wyoming (which is comparatively close to Northern California and the Gold Rush) is indicative of atmosphere in general. You've mentioned Los Angeles smog back in the day, which I'm sure was awful locally, but it's unclear of it's global effect.

This reminds me of the measurements question: "how to we determine the global temperature with disparate measurement locations, systems, placements (shadow/shade etc.)?". Can I determine Global Warming from my backyard.

Just looking at Cochran's chart of the Wyoming ice-core, it shows a larger mercury volume from Mt St. Helens than from Krakatoa. However according to the Volcanic Explosivity Index at [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index] Krakatoa ejected ~ 10 times the volume of Helens (from the other side of the world).

So can we deem the Wyoming ice core to be absolute proof of atmospheric mercury at large? Or are the Wyoming heightened Mercury levels perhaps due to West Coast Industrialization? I'd be curious to see if Arctic, Antartic, Himalayan, Kilamonjaro ice core samples reflect similar mercury emission lines. Or is mercury-measurement, like politics, local?

Also, the mercury emission at the end of the 20thC appears to be in decline. Is this part of that idea that technology gets dirtier until it gets cleaner? Are we doing better? If it turns out the chart is perfectly reflected in every ice-core from around the world, should we establish regulatory standards for 2011 et seq, based on a peak emissions from 1980 that have been declining for 30 years?

I think the source for the original chart was this USGS site http://toxics.usgs.gov/pubs/FS-051-02/ The site does mention the mercury decline over the last 20years. It states that the mercury baseline is on par with cores obtained from other geographies. However, the opening section says "Atmospheric mercury concentrations in these cores are not likely influenced by local anthropogenic sources" which seems too conclusory to be in 'background information'. Factsheet also availalbe in a one-page pdf http://toxics.usgs.gov/pubs/FS-051-02/pdf/fs-051-02.pdf

Michael Crow

[Emphasis added ]

In general, in the West at least, industry does get dirtier before it gets cleaner, and as we discover more effective techniques the trend to cleaner continues. But for rational decisions on how much to spend for how much cleaner we need some agreement on the data; I do not think we have that.

Mercury and the WSJ Article

2011-05-27T16:30:11-06:00

: WSJ claim about mercury

"presuming its accuracy are quite enlightening: US power plants emit perhaps 50 tons of mercury per year. Contrast that to 44 tons from forest fires; 26 tons from human cremations; 400 tons from Chinese power plant -- and 9,000 tons annually from vulcanism."

I did bother to check. As far as I can tell, it's a lie. Not a mistake. That is absolutely typical for the WSj editorial page.

Maybe you should check more, Jerry.

Gregory Cochran

One of the advantages of being me is that while I don't have a big paid staff to do fact checking for me, I can be confident that someone will do it.

You can get spikes from volcanoes, but steady anthropogenic inputs are the main story in recent decades. Some not so steady anthropogenic inputs also show, like the Gold Rush in California ( amalgamation process).

To put it gently, why do you listen to God-damned liars?

Gregory Cochran

Although mercury is a naturally occurring element (it makes up 0.000008 percent of the earth’s crust) and has natural sources of emission, most notably volcano eruptions, the increased mercury levels of the past 150 years are almost entirely human-caused. Ice cores from the Wind River mountain range in Wyoming produced the following pattern in atmospheric mercury concentrations (2):

The base concentration from natural emissions is shown in green, with spikes emanating from large volcanic eruptions highlighted in blue. The large increase in concentration of the mid nineteenth century was a result of the Gold Rush period. As mentioned earlier, mercury easily forms amalgams with other metals, effectively dissolving them. Miners used mercury to extract gold from rock, later separating the mercury and gold through filtering and distillation. The red area of the chart shows the effects of industrialization. The most significant source of atmospheric mercury in the industrial period was the burning of fossil fuels, particularly coal. As human demand for cheap energy has risen, so too has the concentration of mercury in the environment.

No source was given for the diagram (as no source was given for the WSJ article), and I do not know the source of the text. I would be astonished if the WSJ just made up their data; surely sources were given in the testimony at the hearings. As those who have given data to Congressional committees are aware, those are done under oath and penalty of perjury (although there is seldom prosecution for presenting made up data to Congress). I do know that in the 1970's when I was preparing my articles on "America's Looming Energy Crisis" I visited several coal fired power plants, and was shown the stringent measures taken to clean up the stack gasses. Mercury was one of the elements scrubbed. Previously built coal plants had not been so efficient in cleaning up pollutants.

In the 1970's Los Angeles smog was a subject of national jokes -- Niven and I used the image of "Hertz Rent-a-Mountain" in Lucifer's Hammer -- but much has changed since then. The question is one of what is happening now, and is it cost effective to increase the burden on US power plants. What I said in my view was

US power plants emit perhaps 50 tons of mercury per year. Contrast that to 44 tons from forest fires; 26 tons from human cremations; 400 tons from Chinese power plant -- and 9,000 tons annually from vulcanism. Mother Nature accounts for 99%, and if we got rid of all the rest the result would hardly be noticed. If the economy were booming, with plentiful energy, it would make sense to debate the cost/effectiveness of phasing in even more efficient stack scrubbers for power plants. Until that time, this new regulation makes no sense.

If those numbers are wrong, then the conclusion is wrong. If there not 9,000 tons of mercury a year (on average, I would suppose) that is an argument in favor of making the scrubbers more efficient; but if the Chinese continue to put out 400 tons, and India is doing something similar, then there is at least something to discuss. The key to US prosperity is low cost energy. The US is not doing much investing in generating low cost energy, and adding to the burdens of the power industry certainly doesn't lower the cost to the consumer. I will repeat: if the economy were booming, it would make sense to debate the cost/effectiveness of phasing in even more efficient stack scrubbers for power plants. I will modify my statement that until then the new regulation makes no sense since that implies that there is no sense in debating it now; but it is a debate, not a foregone conclusion.

The "environmentalist" argument is that anything we do to harm the environment is wrong, and must not be done, and usually is followed by predictions of doom to the human race. The Small is Beautiful advocates of the last century went further. Isaac Asimov predicted that by the year 2000 we would be crowded into unbearable stress. Yet the life expectancy of humans in the US has steadily risen as we employed more technology, and one reason for the health care crisis is that we don't die soon enough. The longer we live the more it costs to keep us alive -- but the more it costs, the more it costs. Longevity is not free. Longevity in times of economic stress is a sure path to deficits. There are more dooms in this world than an increase in atmospheric mercury levels. There are costs to putting burdens on energy industries. Often those burdens make economic sense, but as we find new ways to increase scrubbing efficiencies, the cost of each incremental reduction in pollutants increases as well. Deciding to add to the costs of energy production in order to get the pollutions to ever lower levels is not an automatic decision.

New EPA mercury rules and related....

see below on mercury in light bulbs. Interesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePZGWvwvH_0&feature=share

Further notes;

1. GE's "FAQ" on compact fluorescent bulbs (CFL) answers questions about mercury by making claims on mercury from coal-fired power plants averted by use of lower-power CFLs. It does not discuss the mercury content of the CFL.

http://www.gelighting.com/na/home_lighting/
ask_us/faq_compact.htm#what_is_mercury

"A coal-fired power plant will emit 13.6 milligrams of mercury to produce electricity required to use an incandescent light bulb, compared to 3.3 milligrams for a CFL."

2. The government page suggests that 0.4 milligrams of mercury will enter the environment from a landfilled CFL (while claiming less emissions and savings from above, but they might have corrected for the fraction of coal-generated electricity).

http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/
promotions/change_light/downloads/Fact_Sheet_Mercury.pdf

3. This page -- which extols the benefits of CFLs -- finally give the truth: CFL's have 4-5 mg of total mercury.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/05/ask_treehugger_14.php

So going back to the energystar page... total mercury (coal plant emissions plus bulb contents) exceeds the coal plant emissions from incandescent. Of course, there is a bit of apples and oranges here -- but it goes both ways (not all mercury emitted from power plants is going to be in bioaccessable toxic forms, either, by any stretch of the imagination).

4. Finally, from today's Wall Street Journal: The Myth of Killer Mercury. http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB10001424052748703421204576329
420414284558.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

A counterpoint from a doctor in this Atlanta Journal-Constitution piece: http://www.ajc.com/opinion/pro-con-should-the-957562.html

talks about the risks of mercury to air-pollution sensitive children -- without EVER saying that she has ever treated a single child for a specific mercury-related illness. (Or noting how the child's health might suffer if the power goes out.

Jim

Mercury makes us stupid. The Flynn effect says the world as a whole is getting smarter. As I noted in A Step Farther Out protein deficiencies also make people stupid, and this happens fairly often in poor societies. Whole countries can have people stunted in size and in intelligence, and prosperity remedies that. The costs of prosperity may be high, but the benefits are large too.

Nobody in his right mind is for the release of mercury into the atmosphere; but it does not make one insane to say that sometimes the cost of removing another percent of the pollution is just too high. The costs of economic stagnation can be high. The costs of poverty can be devastating. The decisions are not automatic.

Discussion continues below.

Noonan

2011-05-27T16:40:01-06:00

Noonan

Jerry,

It appears that Ms. Noonan has finally gotten with the program:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001
424052702304520804576347743251994196.html

<snip>If Obama economic adviser Gene Sperling's presentation at the summit was indicative of White House strategy, then we're in trouble. Because that strategy comes down to windy and manipulative statements about how "we're all in this together" but GOP proposals "will lead to millions of children . . . losing their coverage." He added: "We are not criticizing their plan, we are explaining it."

It is a long time since I've seen such transparent demagoguery, such determined dodging. It's obvious the White House political plan for 2012 is this: The Democrats will call for fiscal discipline and offer no specifics or good-faith starting points. They will leave the Republicans to be specific, and then let them be hanged with their candor. Democrats will speak not of what they'll do but only of what they would never do, such as throw grandma out in the snow. In honeyed tones, Mr. Sperling said both parties should "hold hands and jump together," like Butch and Sundance. But it was clear Sundance was going to stop at the edge of the cliff and hope Butch gets broken on the rocks.

Jim

I do not always agree with Miss Noonan, but I have generally found it worth while to reflect on her views. She did an awesome job for Reagan.

This column is especially astute. Explaining all this will be very difficult; she understands that. I wonder how many others in politics do.

To see how difficult this will be, see
http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB100014240527023040665045
76345732775990392.html?mod=
WSJ_newsreel_opinion

More Barbarians

2011-05-27T16:30:28-06:00

More Barbarians

Reporting from Sacramento -- Computer errors prompted California prison officials to mistakenly release an estimated 450 inmates with "a high risk for violence" as unsupervised parolees in a program meant to ease overcrowding, according to the state's inspector general.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/
la-me-prisons-20110526,0,6293602.story

-------- Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC
Percussa Resurgo

Must be Global Warming

2011-05-27T16:30:27-06:00

Subj: Must be Global Warming

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/
US_MEMORIAL_DAY_SNOW?SITE=AP
&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
&CTIME=2011-05-27-04-51-12

DENVER (AP) -- Ski resorts are bustling with activity. A key highway into Yellowstone is closed because parts of the road have seen more than 25 feet of snow. And campgrounds are feverishly removing snow from campsites to clear the way for visitors.

Welcome to Memorial Day weekend in much of the West.

The traditional kickoff of the summer season will have a decidedly wintry feel in the Rocky Mountains, as well as California's Sierra Nevada, because of a lingering record snowfall.

<snip>

Job Opening - Psychic Ability Required

2011-05-27T16:30:25-06:00

Job Opening - Psychic Ability Required

Dr. Pournelle --

Upon reading this, at first I thought I was gobsmacked, then I realized I was depressed.

Italy earthquake experts charged with manslaughter Risks commission members to face trial over failure to give sufficient warning about L'Aquila earthquake in 2009

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/
may/26/italy-quake-experts-manslaughter-charge

I have it written above my desk: "Despair is a sin." Sometimes it's hard to remember.

Pieter

Words fail me...

For "jeff"

2011-05-27T16:30:23-06:00

For "jeff"

Jerry,

This is in partial response to your e-mail from "Jeff" in response to your equation of Mr. Gingrich to a corporate Chief Scientist. This regards my personal experience in a couple of positions where I've held that title; other's mileage may vary.

In my experience, the Chief Scientist may have either a staff role (and a "regular" job in addition to duties as Chief Scientist) or be a managing scientist on a research team.

In the staff position, the Chief Scientist is a broadly knowledgeable and moderately senior person trained in a scientific discipline relevant to the work; a Ph.D. is not indispensable but I can off the top of my head think of only one person I've met with the title who didn't have one. I generally had a "regular job" but would periodically be called on to perform independent reviews of business ideas and technical proposals from the standpoint of ensuring overall scientific accuracy. In other words, I was a BS detector, and I think I did a moderately good job of it most of the time.

As a managing Chief Scientist I was responsible for planning and coordinating laboratory work by others (thank goodness they didn't trust me around hazardous chemicals :) and compiling the results, and assisting in the concept-level design of systems to implement the results. I also had a view towards hazards assessment and backed up the safety staff.

I hope this helps.

Sarah Palin: Barack Obama's Disregard for Ally's Security Begs Clarity

2011-05-27T16:30:22-06:00

Sarah Palin: Barack Obama's Disregard for Ally's Security Begs Clarity

Jerry,

Agree or disagree, this FB post demonstrates the level of sophistication that one normally expects from Gingrich. Palin is certainly not a policy wonk, but she is obviously getting tutored by someone.

http://conservatives4palin.com/
2011/05/barack-obama%e2%80%99s-
disregard-for-ally%e2%80%99s-
security-begs-clarity.html#

Jim Crawford

Japanese Superquake...

2011-05-27T16:30:21-06:00

Japanese Superquake...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/
article-1389247/Japan-earthquake-
Ocean-floor-moved-79-feet-sideways.html

Japanese Superquake Moved Ocean Floor 79 Feet Sideways and 10 Feet Up – and New Data Shows Region Is Under More Strain

Charles Brumbelow

Marmite has been made illegal in Denmark:

2011-05-27T16:30:20-06:00

Marmite has been made illegal in Denmark:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/
foodanddrinknews/8533896/Marmite-
made-illegal-in-Denmark.html

Sure, they had lots of good reasons. After all, the strongly flavored dark brown spread made from brewer's yeast has joined Rice Crispies, Shreddies, Horlicks and Ovaltine prohibited in Denmark under legislation forbidding the sale of food products with added vitamins as threat to public health.

A spokesman for the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration said: "I cannot comment on the Marmite case because our expert is away until Thursday."

And Obama holds the Europeans up for us to emulate.

I prefer Vegemite myself. Of course the Danes don't have the same traditions of freedom as we do. Well, the Vikings did...

And we have more mail including a continuation of the Mercury discussion

2011-05-27T16:30:01-06:00

And we have more mail including a continuation of the Mercury discussion

The more I look at this the more I think a Lunar Colony is sustainable. Perhaps...

2011-05-27T09:40:03-06:00

The more I look at this the more I think a Lunar Colony is sustainable. Perhaps the Chinese will do it.

http://www.projo.com/news/content/
MOON_WATER_05-27-11_OOOALJB_v13.31f912e.html

Thursday Mail Roundup 4

2011-05-27T16:30:17-06:00

The Democrat budget plan

2011-05-27T16:30:16-06:00

The Democrat budget plan

is to have no plan. The President appointed a budget commission in 2010, whose recommendations he promptly ignored in 2011. The Democrat Senate majority leader has no interest in even pretending to put together a budget

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may/20
/news/la-pn-harry-reid-budget-20110520

notwithstanding the fact that the Democrat controlled Senate has not passed a budget in more than 2 years.

The Democrat strategy appears to be to criticize the Republican proposals while offering none of their own. The Republicans can't beat that if the people do not demand to see a Democrat plan.

Steve Chu

"Tea" Party Candidates

2011-05-27T16:30:15-06:00

"Tea" Party Candidates

It occurs to me that, given the media prominence of the Tea Party, the Democrats could do quite well by having someone declare themselves a "Tea Party Candidate" in races where nobody of the sort was running. Anyone who doesn't research voting before they walk into the polling booth might see the label and think they're the real thing, splitting the otherwise-Republican vote.

-- Mike T. Powers

I would expect to see a lot of this.

And I am off to the barber shop.

2011-05-26T12:40:04-06:00

And I am off to the barber shop.

A side note.

2011-05-26T12:40:03-06:00

A side note.

Of course you have heard of Comet Elenin. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-135 Last night on Coast to Coast Richard C. Hoagland said he has reason to suspect that the comet isn't a comet at all, it's some kind of guided ship. Since it's about 300 million miles away and moving fast enough that it will come to its closest approach to Earth (about 20 million miles) next October 16, this seems unlikely: that is, although it's moving pretty fast for a solar system object, that's awfully slow for an interstellar object. Where did it come from? At, say, half a million miles a year, it would take it considerable time to travel a lightyear. (It's moving at about 10^-5 lightspeed if I've done the math right.) As a science fiction writer I would be intrigued by the notion of a slower than light spacecraft approaching Earth -- after all, Niven and I had a #1 Times best-seller in Footfall which was about a slower than light alien invasion of Earth -- but alas, I suspect that Elenin is more likely to be a not very spectacular event, nowhere near as interesting as Hale Bopp. Pity.

There is still no timeline for accomplishing the mission in Libya...

2011-05-26T12:40:02-06:00

There is still no timeline for accomplishing the mission in Libya, assuming that the mission is regime change. That isn't clearly stated: Obama said in England that the mission is protecting Libyan civilians. And Cameron made it clear that the air strikes on Tripoli are US assets. Apparently we are protecting civilians in Benghazi by bombing Tripoli. Obama has told us that the mission would be completed in days, not weeks; it is now two months, and the end is not in sight. Meanwhile, in Egypt, Mubarak, the former US ally who had kept the peace, is on trial for his life; a clear message to Khadaffi: never let go. Die in office, for you will surely die if you are out of office. Have a nice day.

The President thought a toast to the Queen would be a good opportunity to make...

2011-05-25T15:30:06-06:00

The President thought a toast to the Queen would be a good opportunity to make a speech without a teleprompter. He's always nervous without his teleprompter, and one presumes that being at a British State Dinner is not without stress. Americans have never been comfortable with court etiquette. It's not something we study. Mr. Obama is not always the embodiment of what I would call dignitas, but he is the President of the United States.

If you are curious about the effects of the Bond Market in these odd financial...

2011-05-25T15:30:05-06:00

If you are curious about the effects of the Bond Market in these odd financial times, see "Know Thy Bond Vigilante" by Holman Jenkins in today's Wall Street Journal (link).

What's really illustrated here is the problem of collective action. Unable to act coherently, politicians are buying time by doing whatever is politically possible to avoid default, while avoiding any politically unpopular action to change the underlying conditions producing the debt crisis.

This extends even to presidential outlier Newt Gingrich, whose eagerness to distance himself from any GOP effort to disturb the Medicare status quo has been so evident lately. Or take Mr. Obama. He's made it clear he will not countenance major reforms to entitlements but will use any "crisis" to extract more taxes from "the rich." He's betting implicitly on a calculation by economist Henning Bohn showing that, in future elections, the median-age voter will support higher taxes as the lesser evil if she believes it means preserving the value of her Social Security and Medicare benefits.

This approach has already failed in Europe. The thing to notice is that Europe's bond markets aren't appeased by the politicians' apparent devotion to creditor interests--because bond investors realize politicians can't keep it up. They realize that default only becomes more inevitable as countries are pushed into depression in order to meet current commitments.

Will the U.S. get to this point? Mr. Obama may be right--the U.S. economy will support a rise in the federal share of GDP to 25% or 30% from today's 20%, while avoiding inflation and rescuing America's credit standing in the process. But it would be a very different America--a more heavily taxed America to meet the demands of the elderly. A slower-growing, less dynamic America, unable to afford a role as the world's military arbiter. All that might be fine with the bond vigilantes as long as bonds hold their value. Stock vigilantes are a different story.

It will be a different America.

"The Myth of Killer Mercury" by Willie Soon and Paul Driessen...

2011-05-27T09:40:01-06:00

"The Myth of Killer Mercury" by Willie Soon and Paul Driessen (link) in today's Wall Street Journal makes a number of critical points, and is worth your time. It also should come to the attention of the House committee that authorizes EPA budgets. The EPA apparently pays more attention to ideology than science, to the advantage of China and the detriment of the United States. Soon and Driessen present data that I have no way of checking, but presuming its accuracy are quite enlightening: US power plants emit perhaps 50 tons of mercury per year. Contrast that to 44 tons from forest fires; 26 tons from human cremations; 400 tons from Chinese power plant -- and 9,000 tons annually from vulcanism. Mother Nature accounts for 99%, and if we got rid of all the rest the result would hardly be noticed. If the economy were booming, with plentiful energy, it would make sense to debate the cost/effectiveness of phasing in even more efficient stack scrubbers for power plants. Until that time, this new regulation makes no sense.

Dr. Cochran disagrees. See mail.

The unanticipated loss of what was thought to be a safe Republican House seat...

2011-05-25T15:30:03-06:00

The unanticipated loss of what was thought to be a safe Republican House seat in upstate New York has thrilled Democrats across the country, and caused a considerable stir among Republican strategists. The election was complicated: there was a "Tea Party" candidate who got 8% of the vote, enough to have changed the election result had they gone to the Republican. Oddly enough, the "Tea Party" candidate had formerly run for the seat as a Democrat. Democrats spent a lot of money in the campaign. So far as I can tell the principal issue in the campaign was Medicare, with the Democrat running adds showing the Republicans pushing Grandma off a cliff.

I didn't follow that election, and there isn't enough known -- certainly not by me, but I suspect not by anyone -- about the distribution of the votes, turnout by precincts, and the rest of it to allow any real analysis of why the Republicans lost what was thought to be a safe seat in what is thought to be a Republican year. I'll wait for more data.

One thing we can do is look at the Medicare issue. It's going to come up again and again.

One of the long term trends in modern America is the increasing Federal transfer of funds from the younger generation to the older. At one time that was primarily through pensions -- younger workers are taxed to make payments to older retired -- but lately health care has become more prominent. Another long term trend is the cost of health care, which has risen steadily as a percentage of national income to exceed 1/6 and is approaching 1/4. Since most health care expenditures go to older patients, this dramatically increases the transfer of income from younger to older. Note that it is also a transfer from productive to non-productive, and since the taxes do not fall so heavily on the less productive, the burden concentrates on the middle class -- middle in both age and income. This is more or less inevitable.

The Medicare program works quite well. Most of those involved in Medicare are happy to have it and unwilling to vote for any reduction. The election in the New York 26th seems to have been largely a referendum on Medicare, and the Democratic advertisements seem to have largely presented the message that the Republican health care plan would end Medicare.

This is why a precinct by precinct analysis of the vote is important: if that vote shows that people in retirement homes, and in precincts with aging populations, had a dramatic change from Republican to Democrat in this election, it is likely that the Medicare question was the deciding factor: in which case we ought to conclude that the Republicans are not getting their message across.

The Ryan Medicare plan does in fact abolish Medicare as we know it -- but it does not affect anyone 55 years of age or older. Those already on Medicare and those over 54 years old headed for it will get what we already have. The Ryan plan does not change anything; what it does is to try to save enough money in health care costs to allow those entitled to Medicare to get it. In the present situation and in this economy they won't get it because the money isn't there.

Medicare is going broke. We can't afford it any longer. To keep it going we'd have to raise taxes just for that purpose.

This isn't really news. It has been discussed since before the election of Barrack Obama, and not all the discussions were bereft of facts. See, for example, Robert Samuelson, Newsweek (Newspeak?) journalist in September 2008: http://www.newsweek.com/2008/09/05/
getting-real-about-health-care.html

It has long been known that we can't afford Medicare as presently structured. The only argument is over when it will collapse, and as health care costs go up and up the day when Medicare is out of funds comes closer and closer.

The question is, what does Obamacare do to save Medicare? If voters are rejecting the Republican plan as expressed in Ryan's bill because it abolishes Medicare for all those under 55 years of age, what do they expect they will get in return? What does the Obama health care plan deliver?

The 26th was designed to be a Republican district. The main lesson I get from the 26th NY District election is that the issue was Medicare and the Republicans didn't make their case; and they had better learn how, because a good part of the Republican base consists of elderly middle class voters, and if they are voting Democrat out of fear of losing Medicare, Republican strategists had better develop an answer to this fast.

Tuesday View Roundup 3

2011-05-25T15:30:02-06:00

Immigration

2011-05-24T18:40:01-06:00

Immigration

At a Mexican restaurant in downtown Fort Worth, our table was attended by a delightful young woman who spoke perfect English with a barely detectable accent (not unusual in Texas). She was intelligent, mature and witty. We had a nice conversation with her and discovered that she was originally from Mexico. Her mother had packed up her and her siblings and moved north with them because the local drug gang had taken up the practice of kidnapping school children when they thought it might serve their interests. They would even send photographs of the children to their families without taking them just to put them on notice that they were vulnerable. Her mother had received such a photo.

I told her that I was very glad that they had made it. I did not ask her if they had obtained visas in advance.

Good heavens! Would that I had more neighbors like her.

Richard White Austin, Texas

-- "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." --Plato

Of course I could also show you many data points of the dangers of 'diversity.' The Melting Pot works, but only if it is not overloaded. America can assimilate many cultures but it needs to have assimilation as a goal for that to work' and sheer numbers can destroy its effectiveness. Do we really want a fundamental change in the nature of the American society? Some would say so, but to what?

Deport them all and deport them now doesn't work; but a program of deporting those involved in crimes can be made to work, and if the borders are controlled a program for legal residence if not citizenship can be added; but only if the borders are controlled. Part of control would seek out and allow the results you are after.

Wouldn't it be nice if they put this kind of time and effort going back to get...

2011-05-24T18:30:16-06:00

Wouldn't it be nice if they put this kind of time and effort going back to get us *more* rocks, instead?

<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/
43115697/ns/technology_and_science-space/>

--- Roland Dobbins

The Power Point controversy

2011-05-24T18:30:14-06:00

The Power Point controversy

Dear Jerry:

I wasn't surprised a bit at that Army Times story. My last job in the Army was what is now called "Public Affairs" and was then called "Public Information". This was during the Vietnam War when the Army finally got serious about implementing Harry Truman's order about racial integration and certain civilians were trying to use that issue to damage morale and undermine readiness. I was in Europe, you will recall, so this had nothing to do with that "noisy sideshow" (My First Sergeant's words, not mine) in Vietnam. We also had a certain number of mid level career NCOs and officers who could not get with the program. The NCOs found they couldn't re-enlist and therefore would not get their pensions. The officers found when the big reduction in force came down after we were out of Vietnam that they were likewise shown the door, with their contracts bought out.

This was 40 years ago. With that history, it amazes me that some of the current generation have fallen into the same traps of what the Brits call "ladism". I'm not surprised they were dismissed. What surprises me is that they got promoted that high in the first place. Freedom of speech does not exist in the Armed Forces. There is a remarkable simulation of it most of the time, but the regulations are clear. It's an Army. not a debating society. You ignore the standards at your peril. Political correctness has nothing to do with this. It's about unity of command and unit cohesion.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

Illegal immigration

2011-05-24T18:30:13-06:00

Illegal immigration

The USA and the UK have similar problems with illegal immigration. Similar but not identical; I do not believe that the USA has any significant number of immigrants who are followers of a psychopathic paedophile, and the UK does. However, you are quite correct in saying that “deport them all” is a policy fraught with difficulties. On the other hand, deporting foreign criminals is both possible and desirable.

One partial solution is to stop pandering to the culture of the illegals. Specifically, end the dubious practice of multilingual education and public notices, with the exception of lessons in English for those who don’t speak it at home. The most basic expression of any country’s culture is its language. Multilingualism is also extremely expensive; in the UK official documents (including notices in hospitals, which are a government function over here) have to be available in at least a dozen languages, at vast expense. (Add one more, for the translation into American. J ) Yes, this would lead to the exclusion of non-English speakers from public life; this is a feature not a bug.

Regards

Ian Campbell

Controlling the borders is a necessary but no sufficient condition for addressing the problem...

Being a terrorist is like being a Chinook salmon

2011-05-24T18:30:11-06:00

Being a terrorist is like being a Chinook salmon

Your longevity depends on keeping away from seals

(retired Navy)

Numbers Flap Has Minor Implications For Global Extinctions

2011-05-24T18:30:10-06:00

Numbers Flap Has Minor Implications For Global Extinctions

Jerry

Some researchers touched up the model biologists have been using to assess extinction rates. It turns out that to be accurate, one must carefully gather lots more data than has been the practice to date. No surprise. But Organized Biology’s (must capitalize it now) response has been AGW-like in its furor:

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/
generic/id/74490/description/Numbers
_flap_has_minor_implications_for_global_extinctions

“Outspoken ecologists have already dismissed the work as technical quibbling that threatens to distract attention from the most cataclysmic loss of biodiversity in at least 65 million years. A long-time thinker about extinctions, Stuart Pimm of Duke University, objects to the paper as “truly disastrous.” He says it does advance understanding on a technical point but ignores bigger issues and practices among extinction predictors. “This is going to be the biggest bun-fight in my profession in a very long time,” Pimm says.

“But Hubbell insists that he is raising a scientifically substantive issue: “Come hell or high water, we have to be self-correcting. Or why are we doing science?” <snip>

“All ways that we measure extinction, not just species-area relationships, point to [extinction] rates that are elevated today,” says paleobiologist Anthony Barnosky of the University of California, Berkeley. In March he and his colleagues published an analysis -- not based on species-area relationships -- suggesting that ongoing extinctions could within the next few centuries grow to proportions qualifying as the sixth of Earth’s historical mass extinctions. Even using Hubbell and He’s adjustments to dial back a recent high-profile prediction of 18 percent to 35 percent land species losses from climate change could still means losing 10 percent in the not-too-distant future. That’s “an unacceptably high loss by anyone's standards,” he says.

And more of the same. They call it a ‘bun fight’ but to me it looks more like a hissy fit by the Catastrophists that their religion is being challenged.

The social sciences are also learning that many of their discoveries are based on faulty statistics. Science only works when crucial experiments are replicated; when a theory becomes a creed, it's no longer science and when it becomes heresy to experiment or question a theory, the results are seldom good.

Another letter from England

2011-05-24T18:30:15-06:00

New Levels of Absurdity

It's getting weird. Some people are commenting that the Arab Spring has made landfall in Europe.

30,000 Twitter users breach gag order: <http://tinyurl.com/3gtvuho> <http://tinyurl.com/3jyoawt> <http://tinyurl.com/3pnrcdf> <http://tinyurl.com/448z7mn> <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CTB_v_News_Group_Newspapers>

Attack on Pakistani Naval Base

2011-05-24T18:30:12-06:00

'Their primary objective appeared to be some of the military’s most sophisticated electronic warfare equipment, as they wiped out Pakistan’s anti-submarine warfare capability in a single stroke.'

<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c7c98ddc-
84b1-11e0-afcb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ND3oGr3F>

--- Roland Dobbins

Pakistani Troops Hunt Taliban Militants After Attack on Naval Base - FoxNews.com

Jerry,

This event should scare the Hell out of everyone. This certainly undermines the presumption that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure. It also demonstrates why the Bin Laden raid was an unnecessary and dangerous provocation.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/22/
officials-militants-attack-pakistani-navy-base/

Jim Crawford

FT.com / Asia-Pacific - Taliban raid triggers Pakistan shockwave

Jerry,

The Mystery

2011-05-24T18:30:05-06:00

The Great Mystery

Dr. Pournelle,

You said

"As to the rest of the Middle East, so far as I know the main reason for the US to be interested in the region at all is the obvious one: energy. Although US oil and gas reserves are high, the development is low."

But why? Do "green imperialists" encourage others to rape Nature on our behalf? Is there some conspiracy by the Illuminati? Mind control by the House of Saud?

I honestly find this situation both puzzling and frustrating.

Steve Chu

. Continuing a discussion of US policy in the Middle East:

2011-05-25T15:30:01-06:00

.Continuing a discussion of US policy in the Middle East:

In yesterday's mail Steve Chu asks why the US does not develop domestic resources rather than pour blood and treasure into the Middle East. Here is the classic economic answer:

The Great Mystery (Steve Chu)

In a situation of limited resources out of country and at home it is useful to consume as much from the external resource as possible. With increasing dearness of those resources ( remember you helped create that dearness ) your own resources will have much greater value for sale or be available for local use while others have to look for replacements elsewhere.

This falls on its face if those others move away from that resource to remedy rising resource cost.

Uwe

Of course this economic principle neglects both price and cash flow: that is, the US at present must borrow the money to pay for political, military, and economic intervention in the Middle East. If the purpose is to conserve domestic resources for later sale at higher prices, this reflects a longer term outlook than I would expect. It is also a fairly high risk strategy.

Meanwhile, an aid to the President of Palestine has denounced Prime Minister Netanyahu's address to a joint session of Congress "a declaration of war."
http://www.newser.com/article/d9nduqm80/
abbas-aide-netanyahus-speech-to-congress-is-
declaration-of-war-against-palestinians.html

The President's speech on the Middle East last Thursday was given in the hope that he could restart the Israel/Palestine so-called Peace Process. Whatever its effect, it does not seem to have accomplished that.

The news on the radio is that President Obama signed the Westminster Abbey guest book with the date of 24 May, 2008, which has caused some mirth and (possibly feigned) puzzlement...
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/
UK-News/Obama-Mistake-Westminster-
Guest-Book-Dated-2008-By-US-President-
BarackObama/Article/201105415998813?l
pos=UK_News_Second_Home_Page_
Feature_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_
15998813_Obama_Mistake%3A_Westminster
_Guest_Book_Dated_2008_By_US_
President_Barack_Obama

He seems to have dropped the Middle East topic for the duration of his Ireland/England/Continental tour. The actual purpose of the trip is unclear. He has issued another warning to Qadaffi, and NATO night bombing of the city of Tripoli has intensified.
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/449478

The effects of the bombing were disputed. The targets seem to have been military barracks located in the city. Libyan spokespersons said the barracks had been evacuated. Effects of the air strikes are disputed. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/
world/africa/24libya.html?_r=1

For a left wing account of the bombing and conditions in Tripoli see http://www.counterpunch.org/mckinney05242011.html by former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. McKinney questions the usefulness of NATO in the Post Cold War world. Some of her article might have been written by people holding far less liberal views than McKinney's.

What we do know, and what is quite clear, is this: what I experienced last night is no "humanitarian intervention."

Many suspect it is about all the oil under Libya. Call me skeptical but I have to wonder why the combined armed sea, land and air forces of NATO and the US costing billions of dollars are being arraigned against a relatively small North African country and we're expected to believe its in the defense of democracy.

What I have seen in long lines to get fuel is not "humanitarian intervention." Refusal to allow purchases of medicine for the hospitals is not "humanitarian intervention." What is most sad is that I cannot give a cogent explanation of why to people now terrified by NATO's bombs, but it is transparently clear now that NATO has exceeded its mandate, lied about its intentions, is guilty of extra-judicial killings--all in the name of "humanitarian intervention." Where is the Congress as the President exceeds his war-making authority? Where is the "Conscience of the Congress?"

What we do know, and what is quite clear, is this: what I experienced last night is no "humanitarian intervention."

Many suspect it is about all the oil under Libya. Call me skeptical but I have to wonder why the combined armed sea, land and air forces of NATO and the US costing billions of dollars are being arraigned against a relatively small North African country and we're expected to believe its in the defense of democracy.

What I have seen in long lines to get fuel is not "humanitarian intervention." Refusal to allow purchases of medicine for the hospitals is not "humanitarian intervention." What is most sad is that I cannot give a cogent explanation of why to people now terrified by NATO's bombs, but it is transparently clear now that NATO has exceeded its mandate, lied about its intentions, is guilty of extra-judicial killings--all in the name of "humanitarian intervention." Where is the Congress as the President exceeds his war-making authority? Where is the "Conscience of the Congress?"

The United States is involved in three wars in the Middle East. The Prime Minister of Israel is in Washington on an official visit. Meanwhile, the Commander in Chief tours Europe, and signs himself in as being in the year 2008. One presumes he remains in control of the situation.

Horizontal drilling

2011-05-23T23:50:09-06:00

Subject: Horizontal Drilling

Jerry, I happened to run across this explanation of how horizontal oil wells are drilled into shale formations and thought you might find it interesting: http://www.northernoil.com/drilling.php

Joe

Letter from England

2011-05-23T23:50:06-06:00

Letter From England

I'm watching the super-injunction story play out. The judges are livid. <http://tinyurl.com/65ykntz> <http://tinyurl.com/3rzjjjt> <http://tinyurl.com/42ydhan> <http://tinyurl.com/43c66y6> <http://tinyurl.com/3r2qv76> Judge demands on-line controls to attack the problem of 'those who peddle lies', equating it to child pornography. <http://tinyurl.com/444ltx8> Top judge attacks those in parliament who speak out about these cases. <http://tinyurl.com/63nhw6f> A judge has issued an injunction against Twitter. <http://tinyurl.com/44etr7h> <http://tinyurl.com/3ogfdjc> <http://tinyurl.com/3rx2nc3> <http://tinyurl.com/3beo6xc>, which is based in California and has no presence in Britain. <http://tinyurl.com/3g62p7b>.

Why it's not simply personal privacy. <http://tinyurl.com/3tarjht>

My prayers are with Space Shuttle crew: <http://tinyurl.com/3omjp72>

A high inflation rate has been accepted by the Bank of England <http://tinyurl.com/3csxa3e>

Harry Erwin, PhD

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

Royal Marine Commandant on War

2011-05-23T23:50:05-06:00

This was forwarded by Colonel Couvillon, USMC Ret. It is fairly long, and is a general lecture on warfare by the Commandant of the Royal Marines. Recommended.

Sunday Mail Roundup 1

2011-05-23T19:10:11-06:00

I was looking for other things and I found this from long ago. It's all still...

2011-05-28T17:40:01-06:00

I was looking for other things and I found this from long ago. It's all still true, but that's not why I copied it. I copy it here because I like the Blake poem. ===

Subject: Bletchley Park boffins seek Holy Grail, Knights Templar.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/14/tech/main617553.shtml

--- Roland Dobbins

Which is in fact very interesting. The whole saga of the Knights Templar is worthy of more study; unlike the silly "Da Vinci Code" stuff that seems to have taken over my local bookstore, there is some reality in the notion that the Templars actually recovered the Grail. There is also tradition although little evidence that the Grail (an actual cup, possibly plated in silver or gold, according to some traditions) was brought to England by Joseph of Arimathea.

And did those feet in ancient time
Walk upon England's mountains green?
And was the holy Lamb of God
On England's pleasant pastures seen?
And did the countenance divine
Shine forth upon our clouded hills?
And was Jerusalem builded here
Among those dark satanic mills?

Bring me my bow of burning gold!
Bring me my arrows of desire!
Bring me my spear! O clouds, unfold!
Bring me my chariot of fire!
I will not cease from mental fight,
Nor shall my sword sleep in my hand,
Till we have built Jerusalem
In England's green and pleasant land.

-- William Blake (1757-1827)

But the Da Vinci Code has it all wrong. The tradition, put forth among other places in a book I have seen recently revived, Holy Blood, Holy Grail, is that Jesus may have married: not Magdalene, but Mary of Bethany (sister of Martha; the Sons of Martha inherited service, the Sons of Mary inherited "that good part"...). Apparently there is evidence that the Albigensian Heresy had connections with this notion. The Rosicrucians and some other secret societies have held that the biological descendents of Jesus still exist and are the legitimate rulers of the world.

And it is certain that the Templars had some extraordinary secret treasures, and that many of them including a rather sizable war fleet escaped the purges, and after the Order was formally disbanded continued to play a part in history...

Steve Sailer

2011-05-27T09:40:06-06:00

Steve Sailer

I quoted your "Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for western civilization as it commits suicide"

and was berated by this comment:

LOL, Pournelle is friends with Steve Sailer < The-Refudiator <http://westslope.craigslist.org/forums/?act=su&handle=The-Refudiator> > 05/24 21:06:37 Craigslist, politics USA

You're quoting from a guy who is friends with the founder of VDare, a white supremacist group.

I'd appreciate your comment; I'm a veteran SF fan and think highly of you and your work.

Caz

I have many friends, including unabashed liberals like Francis Hamit. I am not very familiar with VDare (I think I went to the site once when something there was cited as a source). The Wiki description of VDare says it is "is a website that advocates reduced immigration, especially illegal immigration, into the United States." That is a position I would agree with. The Melting Pot works, and the US can assimilate all sorts and kinds of people (and has done so), but the system can be overloaded and in my judgment has been. I've said so fairly often.

I am also friends with Charles Murray, one of the authors of The Bell Curve, which I am sure horrifies your friend. I suspect I have other friends your commentator would find unacceptable. Heck, I have friends that some of my friends find unacceptable: as Larry Niven often says, I do not insist that my friends like each other.

The quote is from the late James Burnham, a National Review editor and author of The Managerial Revolution as well as The Machiavellians, both important books. His dictum that Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for western civilization as it commits suicide was formulated at a particularly bleak time during the Cold War, and was quite accurate at the time; it may still be so. Its truth is not affected by who is or is not my friend.

The Ryan Medicare Plan as I Understand it.

2011-05-27T16:30:12-06:00

The Ryan Medicare Plan as I Understand it.

Jerry,

1. Medicare is already a Budget Buster and it will only get worse if something is not done.

2. No one that is 55 or older will be affected by these changes.

3. If you are younger than 55, when you would have been eligible for Medicare you will get a periodic Federal payment to assist in the purchase of private medial insurance.

Pretty simple and straight forward if you ask me.

Bob Holmes

I don't disagree, but the voters in suburban Buffalo don't seem to have caught on. Somehow the message is not getting across. As I said yesterday, I want to see the precinct by precinct voting before I come to tactical conclusions. The loss of a safe district is alarming. It needs more analysis than I have seen so far.

If it were that easy to explain ---

I was a bit under the weather.

2011-05-26T16:10:01-06:00

I was a bit under the weather.

Monday Mail Roundup 6

2011-05-24T18:30:09-06:00

Your disquisition on Mid East peace today was right on. I would emphasize...

2011-05-24T18:30:08-06:00

Your disquisition on Mid East peace today was right on. I would emphasize that by supporting the overthrow of Mubarak who honored the Camp David Accords for three decades, Obama destroyed any vestige of hope that the Israelis would be willing to trade land for peace. Obama's subsequent demand for a return to the 1967 borders without even addressing the right of return issue will only further alienate Israelis. As you point out, a border will have to be imposed, not negotiated. If the Israelis succeed in imposing that border, they will expel all of the Palestinians and perhaps the Israeli Arabs. If the Arabs succeed in imposing a border, there will be no Israel to have a border and the Israelis will be exterminated rather than expelled. Until recently it was presumed that Israeli's opportunity to impose a border would end not long after Iran got the bomb. With the radicalization of Egypt and the alienation of Pakistan which already has nuclear weapons, that window of opportunity may already have closed. Given the United States' refusal to have an intelligent energy policy, acquiescing to Israel's extermination would seem to be in the United States' best interest. However, the long term consequences might be catastrophic.

Israel has managed since 1948 and in far more hostile climates than now. Things can go on as they have for another generation.

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop; but some things go on for a very long time even so.

Don't leave home without it.

2011-05-24T18:30:07-06:00

Don't leave home without it.

<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/05/angelenos-furious-over-special-gold-card-for-traffic-tickets.html>

--- Roland Dobbins

Chief Scientist

2011-05-24T18:30:06-06:00

Chief Scientist

Jerry,

You wrote

“I would not say that Newt always tends to blow things up, or that he has bad judgment; but I will agree that he is far better in the role of advisor than as the boss. In the aerospace industry there is the post of "Chief Scientist". The simplest description of the job is that everyone in a project including the Chief Engineer must listen to the Chief Scientist, but they don't have to follow the advice. They do have to consider it.”

I would love to read an in-depth analysis of this thought or links to other resources. My company has had people in this role but we are never quite sure how to use them. While we are quite far from aerospace (in fact, nearly the opposite since we are still stone age)… I think this can apply to any innovative “hard” industry.

jeff

The Supreme Court's Prison Break

2011-05-24T18:30:04-06:00

The Supreme Court's Prison Break

Wise Latino anyone?

Phil

http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB1000142405270230452080
4576341782242746932.html?
mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop

We have seen the logic of the President's appointees. Winning elections matters.

hydrothermal vents

2011-05-23T19:10:01-06:00

hydrothermal vents

Jerry P:

Massive Ocean Eddies Stir Up Life around Deep-Sea Vents: Scientific American

New research suggests that surface-generated eddies help distribute heat, chemistry and life at deep-ocean hydrothermal vents

By Nina Bai <http://www.scientificamerican.com/author.cfm?id=2709>

This article relates to a conversation you have been having about other sources of thermal energy which can possibly affect climate.

CBS

Sunday View Roundup 1

2011-05-23T12:20:07-06:00

I got some mail up last night . A couple of items seemed important enough for...

2011-05-27T09:40:02-06:00

I got some mail up last night. A couple of items seemed important enough for View. I'll be back after breakfast.

'There is no "Arab Spring", just some demonstrations accompanied by slaughter and extraordinarily vacuous observers.'

<http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110523-obama-and-arab-spring>

--- Roland Dobbins

And that is a proposition very much worth discussing. Of course it is probably a mistake to treat all the various Arab street movements equally. Syria is not Iran is not Egypt is not Tunisia.

Behold the vanguard of Arab 'democracy'.

<http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/451086>

- Roland Dobbins

A group of Egyptians have announced their intent to establish a Nazi party with "a contemporary frame of reference," an independent Egyptian news website said on Wednesday. Al-Badeel, a leftist news portal, quoted founding member Emad Abdel Sattar as saying the party would bring together prominent figures from the Egyptian society. The party’s founding deputy is a former military official.

The party believes in vesting all powers in the president after selecting him or her carefully, Abdel Sattar said, adding that preparations are underway to choose the most competent person to represent the party.

The Nazi party operated secretly under former President Hosni Mubarak, whose regime prevented party leaders from carrying out their activities freely.

A caller to the Rush Limbaugh show asked why the Republicans came up with the...

2011-05-26T12:40:01-06:00

A caller to the Rush Limbaugh show asked why the Republicans came up with the Ryan plan rather than do what they were elected to do, which is repeal Obamacare. The connection to the caller was lost in the middle of the call, so we didn't hear the rest of what the caller, a Florida Republican county level politician wanted to say. Limbaugh spent a good part of the rest of the program trying to explain and justify the Ryan plan. He didn't do that very well. He's for it, but the best he could say is that Medicare is the deficit, there is no way to save it as it stands, and the Ryan plan addresses the fundamental problem. Just stopping Obama's plan -- what there is of it, because much of it has yet to be implemented, and of that much has been wavered -- would be going on the defensive, and the Republicans need to be on the offensive, to use a football analogy.

This isn't a football game.

The scary part is that if Limbaugh can't articulate a concise and appealing argument for the Ryan plan and against panic, one wonders who can.

Meanwhile Karl Rove has an article in today's Wall Street Journal "Why the Republican Lost in NY-26" (link) also trying to address the problem. Rove's subtitle is The Ryan Medicare plan needs a clearer and more populist defense.

Five and a half weeks after House Republicans passed their budget, Democrats and liberal pundits have decided it is political kryptonite that will fatally weaken the GOP.

Their evidence is Tuesday's special election in New York's 26th district, where Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican Jane Corwin for a vacant congressional seat. This is not just any congressional district, but one carried by George W. Bush and John McCain in the last two presidential elections, and one represented for 58 years by a Republican.

Rove, Bush's political strategist, doesn't come up with the concise and appealing argument either. He tries. The problem is that the issue is too complex for simple sound bites. Rove concludes

Defense, no matter how robust, well-informed and persistent, is insufficient. Republicans must also go on offense. Democratic nonchalance towards Medicare's bankruptcy in 2024 and the crushing debt it will leave for our children gives the GOP the chance to depict Democrats as tone deaf, irresponsible and reckless. The country can't afford Democratic leaders who simply order the orchestra to play louder as the Titanic tilts and begins to slide under.

The reverberations of the loss of the Republican safe 26th Congressional District in Tuesday's election continue. We see the shape of the 2012 election year. So far the Republicans do not have a strategy for dealing with this issue.

There are other issues in this election, but this one looks to swamp everything else. That's discouraging. Will future elections all be dominated by entitlement issues? If so, it bodes ill for the Republic. Do note, though, that 8% of the vote went to a "Tea Party" candidate who had previously run for the office as a Democrat and who presumably would have been willing to join the Pelosi caucus had he won in 2010. That, too, is a frightening tactic.

Not 2008

2011-05-24T13:40:01-06:00

Not 2008

For platinum subscription:

2011-05-23T12:20:03-06:00

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

Patron Subscription:

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.

US Policy and the Middle East

2011-05-23T18:30:01-06:00

US Policy and the Middle East

If you haven't read the Sunday exposition on the Middle East, do so before continuing; I'm going to assume you know what's in it.

I concluded last time that there was no longer any possibility of agreed borders between Israel and Palestine. That opportunity was lost when Yasser Arafat rejected the Clinton-brokered Camp David summit accords, and declared the new intafada which was quickly followed by the Ramallah lynching. Since that time the possibility of any mutually agreed border has fallen to zero. Palestine is not going to sell off the settlement areas in Judea and Samaria, nor is Israel going to hand over the -- largely Christian -- ethnic Arab/Palestinian areas of Israel in a swap for parts of Judea and Samaria. Israel might well be pleased to lose a million or so Arabs, but it's not going to happen. Many of them far prefer Israeli citizenship to being turned over to the tender mercies of the rulers of Palestine, at present Hamas; and of course that leaves out the question of defensible borders. If the 1967 borders were indefensible, the hodgepodge resulting from "mutually agreed swaps" of Arab Israel for Jewish Settlements in Judea and Samaria would be far less so. It's hard to imagine what those borders would look like, but it's an exercise in absurdity anyway: it's not going to happen.

Any border between Israel and Palestine is going to be imposed, not "mutually agreed". If Obama does not know know this -- and it's very difficult to believe that he does not -- Secretary Clinton and the Foreign Service certainly do, as does most of Capitol Hill. There is not going to be any mutually agreed border between Palestine and Israel. There is not going to be any contiguous Palestinian state that unites Gaza and the West Bank. (The Camp David Accord proposal included an elevated railway and an elevated freeway between Gaza and Judea.) Israel is not going to give up the settlements, the Golan Heights, or the fortifications in the Jordan River Valley, nor will the IDF give up unmonitored and unrestricted access to the Jordan Valley. Israel does not have the resources to force the settlers to leave the West Bank. The IDF won't do it; the experience in Gaza was too traumatic. Nor could any Israeli government survive an hour after Palestinian police began forcibly removing Jewish settlers from homes around Bethlehem or in Samaria.

This is reality; but assume that somehow it happened and there were "mutually agreed swaps" leading to some kind of border: there remains the question of the refugees who claim a right of return. After the 1948 war, and again after the 1967 war, a number of Arabs fled Israel, in both cases at the encouragement of Arab governments. Most expected to return after the Arab victories. When those victories didn't materialize, they became refugees. How many is controversial, but a half million is a not unreasonable compromise. There are now more than a million who claim refugee status and a right of return to Israel. That includes the surviving original refugees and their lineal descendents including heirs to property to which they have a nearly indisputable title going back to the Turkish government that preceded the British League of Nations Mandate that created Trans-Jordan and Palestine. Some are Christians. I know some of these people. As one put it, "I know that the Germans did terrible things to those people, but I do not know why that gives them the right to my home." The home she describes is in the Jerusalem-Bethlehem corridor, and she grew up in it as a girl. Their family has always been Christian, and they claim descent from the original first generation baptized by the Apostles. Whatever the truth of that claim, they certainly owned that property under the Turks and under the British Mandate government, and it is certainly occupied by European born Jews whose title comes from the Israeli government. No compensation has ever been paid -- not that such compensation would be accepted. "It is not for sale. It has never been for sale."

That story can be multiplied by thousands. How many thousands is not clear. Some of the refugees are descendents of nomads of no fixed address -- much of Palestine in 1948 was undeveloped desert. Some have questionable origins or questionable titles to land in Israel. Discard all those of questionable status and there remain hundreds of thousands of genuine refugees displaced from land in pre-1967 Israel, and who claim a right of return. Add the the others whose status cannot be determined and the number climbs toward a million, perhaps more. While my friends have homes and jobs in Bethlehem (one is a physician married to another Palestinian who is legally resident in Jerusalem although he is not allowed to live there), most of those claiming refugee status live in poverty in refugee camps.

The Arab Israeli wars also produced tens to hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees, who were forced out of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Yemen, and other Arab lands. They fled to Israel, where they were absorbed into the Israeli economy and have long since ceased to have any kind of refugee status. That did not happen with the Arab refugees. They were put up in refugee camps and kept there. They were not absorbed into any Arab countries, and most of them remain stateless refugees (although of course many had the gumption to get out of those slums and go elsewhere. Some came to the United States, some legally and some just came in hopes of claiming sanctuary).

The refugee claim to a Right of Return was the official stumbling block to the Arab acceptance of the Camp David Accords which would have restored well over 90% of the land taken in the 1967 war. The refugee claim to a Right of Return will not be given up, and that issue alone will prevent any Arab/Israeli negotiated peace. Borders and the conditions of peace in the Middle East will not be settled by negotiation. They will be imposed, or they will remain in dispute. This is simple reality.

The question for the United States is a simple one: what part should we have in imposing peace in that region? This can only be answered by an analysis of national interests. One of the factors in that determination is the reliability of nations. Who makes and keeps agreements? The Egyptians did, even though Sadat was assassinated for his part in the Egypt/Israeli accord. Mubarak kept the agreement. His government was corrupt -- almost all governments in that region are corrupt, with baksheesh for public officials as a normal procedure -- but it had more economic liberty than many Arab governments. That government is gone, the Egyptian economy is in terrible shape, and the prognosis is uncertain.

US trade with Israel is significant, particularly in science and technology. As to the rest of the Middle East, so far as I know the main reason for the US to be interested in the region at all is the obvious one: energy. Although US oil and gas reserves are high, the development is low.

Niven is here. I'll continue later. But the situation is clear: there is not going to be peace over there except by imposition. Is that in the US interest? Or would we be better off investing in energy developments here?

We are the friends of liberty everywhere. We are the guardians only of our own.

Niven is coming over for a hike shortly.

2011-05-23T17:40:01-06:00

Niven is coming over for a hike shortly.

Saturday I did two short essays. The first was on Newt Gingrich, and the second was prompted by remarks Newt made on the immigration question. They are both intended to inject some reality into the discussions. In particular, there is no simple solution to the immigration question, and pretending that there is does not help the situation; whatever else Newt has done, he has tried to make us aware of that. Read the essays.

Sunday I attempted to inject some realities into the Israeli question. I note that this morning's news has President Obama frantically trying to explain his Thursday Middle East speech in which he seemed to make important concessions for Israel. Obama supporters are trying to throttle back the rash of criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu, who directed a 4 minute on-camera lecture to the President on the realities of the situation. Both the US State Department and the Israeli Foreign Ministry are trying to get the situation back under control and out of the headlines, back to normal diplomacy. At stake for Israel are the enormous subsidies the US gives to Israel, and the smaller but still quite large subsidy the US pays to Egypt. The subsidy to Egypt tends to stabilize the region; it provides money for the Egyptian military, with plenty of room for the customary baksheesh of Middle Eastern countries, giving the Egyptian rulers enough money for internal bribes to allow a relatively open economy -- or did until recently. The new Egyptian government hasn't stabilized things. Tourism is down to near zero levels, wheat prices soar, and Egypt is threatened with total economic collapse.

Sunday Mail Roundup 1

2011-05-23T04:22:27-06:00

Saturday Mail Roundup 6

2011-05-23T04:22:26-06:00

A modest proposal by a world power to help solve the US-Mexico border problem...

2011-05-23T04:22:25-06:00

A modest proposal by a world power to help solve the US-Mexico border problem

Jerry,

A modest and reasonable proposal by a world leader embroiled in a long-term conflict, to help kick-start the process to solve US-Mexico border problems.

http://bigpeace.com/dfriedman/
2011/05/20/netanyahu-urges-u-s-
return-to-1845-borders/

Pot, meet kettle. Stings a little bit, eh? Oh wait, I forgot. Nobel Peace Prize. I guess that settles it.

Can we negotiate?

When the President does it, he does not need permission.

2011-05-23T04:22:24-06:00

When the President does it, he does not need permission.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/
2011/05/white-house-on-war-powers-
deadline-limited-us-role-in-libya-means
-no-need-to-get-congressional-autho.html

-------- Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC

News as political satire: CNN edition

2011-05-23T04:22:23-06:00

News as political satire: CNN edition

Eliot Who?

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/
what-cnns-story-on-political-sex-scandals
-left-out-eliot-spitzer_b67009

Steve Chu

Where is the Republican voice?

2011-05-23T04:22:22-06:00

Where is the Republican voice?

Jerry:

Browsing the CNN site today, I came across -

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION
/05/16/frum.huckabee.gop/index.html?hpt=Sbin

...where David Frum says in part:

"There's accumulating evidence that upward mobility has broken down in this society. Poorer Americans find it harder to escape poverty than they did a generation ago. More bitter still, there is evidence that people born poor in America find it harder to escape poverty than do people born poor in many European societies, including those supposed backwaters of socialist stagnation, Germany and France.

The Democratic Party responds to those social challenges by offering more government, more regulation and more taxes. These are not Republican answers, obviously.

But what are the Republican answers? And who will offer them?"

Indeed, as the Democrats beat their drums for more centralized power, money, and control all placed in the hands of the bureaucrats who after all only have our *best* interests at heart, where are the Republicans? They decry the Democrat's excesses but offer little in the way of a united front when it comes to remediating them.

I'm not one of David Frum's fans but he indirectly asks a well pointed question: Has the top of the soap box become such a dangerous place that, regardless of convictions or how dearly they are held, there are no Republicans who are willing to stand on it any more?

John L.

Making politics a blood sport has the consequence of limiting those willing to participate...

Massachusetts Health Care

2011-05-23T04:22:21-06:00

Massachusetts Health Care

Steve Chu asked on Thursday, "How have things really worked out in Massachusetts? It is it a good or bad model for state-mandated health insurance?"

I quite agree that those are important questions. CNNMoney published an article last year that might shed some light:

"5 painful health-care lessons from Massachusetts"

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/15/news/
economy/massachusetts_healthcare_
reform.fortune/index.htm

The writer notes five key areas that he asserts are similar between the Massachusetts plan and the Obama/Democratic Congress plan and notes the problems that have arisen in Massachusetts resulting from these aspects of the plan:

The Massachusetts plan does not control costs. Community rating, guaranteed issue and mandated benefits swell costs. Huge subsidies for low-to-medium earners could prove extremely expensive. (Well, in Massachusetts, they already are.) The exchanges reward people for working less and earning less. The generous plans and added mandates give employers an incentive to drop health insurance.

Overall, these are issues that my carpenter grandfather would have foreseen (if memory of his comments about other federal government "charity" are any guide) with simple common sense, something sadly lacking in most politicians, it seems...

David Needham

You commented: "After all, don't people in France and England have all that? They don't have to pay...." Actually, in Britain, we don't perceive good health care as free. Rather, it's something we pay our fair share for over the years so that it will be there when we need it. Our NHS contribution is an insurance payment. What we particularly don't like is free-loading and feather-bedding, and so many people tend to avoid using the NHS until it does turn into an emergency. Concerns about the viability of the current proposals: <http://tinyurl.com/3fax8ke> <http://tinyurl.com/3sy7ut4> <http://tinyurl.com/5wrljo6>

Superinjunctions found to be overused: <http://tinyurl.com/44f6nyh>

University postgraduate recruitment story: <http://tinyurl.com/5uth8sh> . The UKBA seems to have a political agenda of its own.

Why train travel is so expensive in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/6cevyhl>.

Harry Erwin PhD

-- If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it? (Albert Einstein)

Friday Mail Roundup 2

2011-05-23T04:22:20-06:00

I was a bit under the weather.

2011-05-23T04:22:19-06:00

I was a bit under the weather.

Advertisement, sort ot:

2011-05-23T04:22:18-06:00

Advertisement, sort ot:

No Agenda Show Says IMF Chief Was Set Up

Adam Curry and John C. Dvorak, hosts of the No Agenda Podcast Show, www.noagendashow.com <http://www.noagendashow.com> , don’t hold back this week when they outline the possible conspiracy theories behind the “taking out” of IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn. They talk about things that no other journalists have questioned, like the timing of the reported attempted rape vs. the immediate response of the NY Police force. How did the chain of events happen so fast? Most other similar cases take days to get recorded and probed. Who moved this case to the front of the line and who knew where to go and what to look for?

The No Agenda hosts totally support the hotel housekeeper’s story but still claim “something doesn’t smell right” to how this whole thing unfolded.

To hear what Adam and John have to say, listen to the podcast here: http://curry.com/?p=9878 <http://curry.com/?p=9878>

No Agenda is a podcast which takes place two times a week on Thursday and Sunday in the morning, hosted by Adam Curry <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Curry> and John C. Dvorak <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak> on the mevio <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mevio> network. The show is a free-flowing conversation that deconstructs recent news and media memes <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memes> . Much of the appeal of the show comes from the odd couple relationship between the hosts. Adam Curry usually suggests theories about the news or world events, whereas John C. Dvorak has a more reasoned demeanor, and as acting as the "Straight man" to Curry.

Launch Vehicle Development costs - SpaceX vs NASA

2011-05-23T04:22:17-06:00

Subj: Launch Vehicle Development costs - SpaceX vs NASA

The very last page of

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/543572
main_Section%20403%28b%29%20
Commercial%20Market%20Assessment
%20Report%20Final.pdf

[quote] Appendix B – Discussion of Cost Effectiveness of Commercial Cargo Effort

NASA recently conducted a predicted cost estimate of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle using the NASA-Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM). NAFCOM is the primary cost estimating tool NASA uses to predict the costs for launch vehicles, crewed vehicles, planetary landers, rovers, and other flight hardware elements prior to the development of these systems.

NAFCOM is a parametric cost estimating tool with a historical database of over 130 NASA and Air Force space flight hardware projects. It has been developed and refined over the past 13 years with 10 releases providing increased accuracy, data content, and functionality. NAFCOM uses a number of technical inputs in the estimating process. These include mass of components, manufacturing methods, engineering management, test approach, integration complexity, and pre-development studies.

Another variable is the relationship between the Government and the contractor during development. At one end, NAFCOM can model an approach that incorporates a heavy involvement on the part of the Government, which is a more traditional approach for unique development efforts with advanced technology. At the other end, more commercial-like practices can be assumed for the cost estimate where the contractor has more responsibility during the development effort.

For the Falcon 9 analysis, NASA used NAFCOM to predict the development cost for the Falcon 9 launch vehicle using two methodologies:

1) Cost to develop Falcon 9 using traditional NASA approach, and

2) Cost using a more commercial development approach.

Under methodology #1, the cost model predicted that the Falcon 9 would cost $4.0 billion based on a traditional approach. Under methodology #2, NAFCOM predicted $1.7 billion when the inputs were adjusted to a more commercial development approach. Thus, the predicted the cost to develop the Falcon 9 if done by NASA would have been between $1.7 billion and $4.0 billion.

SpaceX has publicly indicated that the development cost for Falcon 9 launch vehicle was approximately $300 million. Additionally, approximately $90 million was spent developing the Falcon 1 launch vehicle which did contribute to some extent to the Falcon 9, for a total of $390 million. NASA has verified these costs.

It is difficult to determine exactly why the actual cost was so dramatically lower than the NAFCOM predictions. It could be any number of factors associated with the non-traditional public-private partnership under which the Falcon 9 was developed (e.g., fewer NASA processes, reduced oversight, and less overhead), or other factors not directly tied to the development approach. NASA is continuing to refine this analysis to better understand the differences.

Regardless of the specific factors, this analysis does indicate the potential for reducing space hardware development costs, given the appropriate conditions. It is these conditions that NASA hopes to replicate, to the extent appropriate and feasible, in the development of commercial crew transportation systems. [/quote]

One observer offers the following translation from NASA-speak:

http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=33930

[quote] Shorter version: our cost models are busted, and we don’t know how to do cost estimation for this new generation of space development companies. But the costs are a lot lower than most people think, and very promising for the future. [/quote]

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

California prison costs

2011-05-23T04:22:16-06:00

Subject: California prison costs

Per George Will, in California it now costs $49,000 to keep an convict in a state prison for one year. That is $7,000 more than it costs to attended Dartmouth for a year. You can substitute any other top-tier college for Dartmouth as you wish. Much of the cost of California prisons is salaries and pensions of employees.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
opinions/california-gov-jerry-brown
-is-too-eager-to-embrace-taxes/2011/05/
17/AF6mIm6G_story.html

-- Dwayne Phillips

The California legislature just approved a new agreement what will raise the pay of prison personnel.

Android Update

2011-05-23T04:22:15-06:00

Android Update

It looks like Sauron is not the only eye that watches:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/905bb4d6-813e
-11e0-9360-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1MmYopZ15

Owners of Android smartphones are being warned to avoid public WiFi networks after researchers found a security flaw that could affect the vast majority of devices based on Google’s software.

A trio of researchers at Ulm University in Germany found that it was “quite easy” for hackers to intercept data from Google’s photo-sharing, calendar and contacts applications, as well as potentially other Google services such as Gmail, using a flaw that affects 99 per cent of all Android devices.

-------- Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC

I see you...

74.5 quintillion transistors shipped in 2010,

2011-05-23T04:22:14-06:00

74.5 quintillion transistors shipped in 2010,

Jerry

Check out the Bootnote in this:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/18/revised_intel_roadmap/

74.5 quintillion transistors shipped in 2010.

That's a lot of transistors!

Zombie Invasion -- yeah, I know --

2011-05-23T04:22:13-06:00

Zombie Invasion -- yeah, I know --

I guess terrorists don't cut it anymore:

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/05/18/cdc
-warns-public-prepare-zombie-
apocalypse/?test=latestnews

-------- Most Respectfully, Joshua Jordan, KSC

federal zombie warning

Jerry,

Official from Centers of Disease Control: Preparation for the Zombie Apacalypse

http://www.foxnews.com/health/
2011/05/18/cdc-warns-public-prepare-
zombie-apocalypse/?test=latestnews

Jim

CDC Warns Public to Prepare for 'Zombie Apocalypse'

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/05/18/
cdc-warns-public-prepare-zombie-apocalypse/?
test=latestnews?test=latestnews

""There are all kinds of emergencies out there that we can prepare for," the posting reads. "Take a zombie apocalypse for example. That's right, I said z-o-m-b-i-e a-p-o-c-a-l-y-p-s-e. You may laugh now, but when it happens you'll be happy you read this, and hey, maybe you'll even learn a thing or two about how to prepare for a real emergency.""

The value of a plan isn't that everything will work according to what is foreseen, it is that it puts everyone on the same sheet of music and the process of working through the possibilities helps you deal with what will actually happen. This is as true of disasters as anything else. I highly recommend a Zombie Apocolypse kit, because it is also a hurricane kit, a flood kit or whatever else might be needed.

Remember, Graves' Law of Zombies: When being pursued by something you can't kill, aim for the knees and run like hell. (People have complained to me that I should shoot at the heads instead. My reply is that if the dead start to walk, I don't know if they need their brains or not, but I have confidence that the mechanics of a hinge joint are still going to be the mechanics of a hinge joint.)

Graves

Why does it not astonish me that bureaucrats are out there demanding brains?

More news as political satire...

2011-05-23T04:22:12-06:00

More news as political satire: Stephen Colbert unintentionally targets self

Mr. Colbert makes an entirely different point than he intended attempting to satirize the Citizens United vs. FEC case:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052
748703421204576329642637361406.html?
mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Steve Chu

Report on UK Copyright Law

2011-05-23T04:22:11-06:00

Report on UK Copyright Law

Three articles on the newly released paper on reforming UK copyright law. <http://tinyurl.com/6fpxnt4> <http://tinyurl.com/6j56ze2> <http://tinyurl.com/3cxpkhp> . (This describes the reason I can't buy most e-books available in America for my Kindle.)

-- Harry Erwin, PhD "If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

Health care mandates

2011-05-23T04:22:10-06:00

Health care mandates

Dr. Pournelle,

If individual mandates are the best solution (or at least an acceptable one) for health care, but cannot be levied by the federal government, what role would the federal government play? Does the President have any role? No one asks about the President's position on auto insurance. Also, how would illegal aliens be addressed? It appears that they would make out best of all.

How have things really worked out in Massachusetts? It is it a good or bad model for state-mandated health insurance? I'm not sure I can cut through the partisan rhetoric.

Steve Chu

Key questions.

health care debate

From a letter published Tuesday:

<snip> When nobody pays their own costs, the price also rises without limit. One can only imagine what groceries would cost if some third party was paying 80 percent of our freight. <snip>

Exactly the problem. So why not, as a first step, abolish employer payments for health care insurance? It would certainly make a huge swath of the American public start to realize just what their health insurance *actually* costs. Then, as another author suggests, consider the entire country to be a single risk group, and maybe we're on the road to rationality, rather than rationing.

Andy Preston

I do not think that is the solution to the problem. People have now been taught that they are entitled to good health, and they do not have to pay for it. After all, don't people in France and England have all that? They don't have to pay. We tried freedom in the United States, and it didn't work. The American system is broken. We need to socialize medicine, and give everyone free and equal health care, and the only real problem is whether we let rich people buy better health care than the rest of us get by birthright.

Such are the arguments. They are not really being addressed.

Of every dollar spent on health care, only 12 cents is spent by the patient; meaning that there is little incentive by patients to save money. And do note that the costs of the bureaucracy that enforces this are not included in that twelve cents.

Wednesday Mail Roundup 2

2011-05-23T04:22:09-06:00

I had medical appointments all day.

2011-05-23T04:22:08-06:00

I had medical appointments all day.

Pakistan Troops, NATO Helicopters Clash at Border - Bloomberg

2011-05-23T04:22:06-06:00

Pakistan Troops, NATO Helicopters Clash at Border - Bloomberg

Jerry,

And so the blowback begins.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
2011-05-17/pakistan-troops-clash-
with-nato-helicopters-in-afghanistan-
border-region.html

Things will get ugly if Pakistan closes the supply route. It could become a reenactment of Dunkirk but without the sealift. Bush at least could be relied upon to establish air superiority and air support to our troops while they march to the sea.

Jim Crawford

=Beware the fury of the Legions.

Philly Police Harass, Threaten to Shoot Man Legally Carrying Gun ...

2011-05-23T04:22:04-06:00

Philly Police Harass, Threaten to Shoot Man Legally Carrying Gun - Stossel's Take Blog - FOXBusiness.com

Jerry,

Future ATF agents?

FBI supplementary homicide reports show that Philly police are as useless as tits on a boar. They should let every citizens carry guns and fire the cops

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/
stossel/blog/2011/05/16/philly-police-
harass-threaten-shoot-man-legally-carrying-gun

Jim Crawford

Monday Mail Roundup 6

2011-05-23T04:22:01-06:00

Science fiction in action!

2011-05-23T04:22:00-06:00

Science fiction in action!

Thousands Of XM-25s Headed To The Troops

May 16, 2011: The spectacular success, and popularity, of the XM-25 grenade launchers in Afghanistan (since late last year, when five of them were sent to combat troops), has forced the U.S. Army to hustle and get more of them to the combat zone as soon as possible. Right now, 36 more are being hand-built (as all prototypes were), and these should be delivered to infantry units by late next year. Meanwhile, mass production has been ordered, and this will result in over 12,000 of the weapons being delivered, starting in 2014.

It was obvious that the XM-25 was a success after only 55 of the 25mm rounds were fired in combat. The users protested having to give them up after the few months of field testing. All this because the XM-25s work as advertised, firing "smart rounds" that explode over the heads of Taliban hiding behind rocks or walls, or hiding in a cave or room. Enemy machine-guns have been quickly knocked out of action and ambushes quickly disrupted with a few 25mm shells. Encounters that might go on for 15 minutes or longer, as U.S. troops exchange fire with hidden Taliban, end in minutes after a few 25mm, computer controlled, rounds were fired.

American infantry love gadgets, and they are extremely eager to get electronics that help them in combat. The XM-25 is all that, and the troops want more. In response, the U.S. Army decided to let the paratroopers keep the five XM-25s, and to speed up plans to produce more. The word has gotten around in Afghanistan, and every combat unit there is asking for XM-25s. Although warned to keep operational details off public Internet forums, XM-25 users are telling stories to other combat troops of a wonder-weapon that actually works.

All this comes after years of testing and debating whether the XM-25 was ready for a combat test. Finally, three months ago, after yet another year of testing and tinkering, the U.S. Army finally sent five of its high-tech, but long delayed, XM-25 grenade launchers to Afghanistan. This was supposed to happen in 2008, but testing kept revealing things that needed to be tweaked. The first troops to get the initial five XM-25s were paratroopers. It was always the plan that another 36 would quickly follow if there were no problems with the first five. But now those 36 are being rushed out as quickly as possible.

The years of testing and tweaking, in response to troop feedback, paid off. Even the current batch of users had suggestions for improvements, and some of these are being incorporated the next 36 being built. The mass production model will have still more changes. The troops also asked for a longer range (700-1000 meters) round, but this would probably require some major engineering and testing. But such longer ranges are required in a place like Afghanistan, where there's a lot of open terrain, surrounded by hills and places for hostile gunmen to fire from. Yet even with the current model, it's obvious that the XM-25 gives the troops something they need, and now want. The XM-25 won't win the war by itself, but it will make life much for precarious for Taliban fighters.

In development since the 1990s, the revolutionary, XM-25 grenade launcher has gone through several major design <http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/20110516.aspx> changes. It was six years ago that six XM-25s were delivered to the U.S. Army for troop testing. Two years, a few were sent overseas for testing in combat situations. While the troops have been very enthusiastic about the new weapon, there were a lot of suggestions, mostly about minor items. So the army kept tweaking and refining the weapon.

The XM-25 was originally one of two weapons (the other being a 5.56mm rifle) incorporated in the 8.2 kg (18 pound) XM-29 OICW (Objective Individual Combat Weapon). The OICW was originally developed as a replacement for the 40mm grenade launcher, with the intention of giving the grenadier some rifle firepower as well. Didn't work out as intended.

The big problem was effectiveness. The older 40mm, unguided, grenade rounds weigh 540 grams (19 ounces) each, the original 20mm OICW round weighed half that. This was one of the several major problems with the OICW. It was too heavy and ungainly, and the 20mm "smart shell" it fired did not appear capable <http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/20110516.aspx> of effectively putting enemy troops out of action consistently, especially compared to the 40mm shell it was replacing. So, in August, 2003, it was decided to take the 5.56mm portion out of the OICW and develop it as a separate weapon (the XM-8) and develop the grenade launcher part that fired the "smart shell" as the XM-25. But the XM-25 would now use a 25mm shell, which would generate 50 percent more fragments (and heavier ones at that) than the 20mm shell of the OICW.

The 20mm and 25mm "smart shells" both use a computer controlled fuze. The XM-25 operator can choose one of four different firing modes via a selector switch on the weapon. The four modes include "Bursting" (airburst). For this to work, the soldier first finds the target via the weapons sighting system. The sight includes a laser range finder and the ability to select and adjust the range shown in the sight picture. For an air burst, the soldier aims at an enemy position and fires a round. The shell is optimized to spray incapacitating (wounding or killing) fragments in a roughly six meter (19 foot) radius from the exploding round. Thus if enemy troops are seen moving near trees or buildings at a long distance (over 500 meters), the weapon has a good chance of getting them with one shot. M-16s are not very accurate at that range, and the enemy troops will dive for cover as soon as M-16 bullets hit around them. With smart shells, you get one (or a few) accurate shots and the element of surprise. The smart shells can be used out to 700 meters, but not as accurately. At those longer ranges, you can't put a shell through a window, but you can hurt a crowd of gunmen standing outside the building.

The other modes are "PD" (point detonation, where the round explodes on contact), PDD (point detonation delay, where the round detonates immediately after it has gone through a door, window or thin wall) and "Window", which is used for firing at enemy troops in a trench, behind a stone wall or inside a room. The round detonates just beyond the aiming point. For buildings, this would be a window or door frame, cave entrance or the corner of a building (to get enemy troops thought to be around the corner.)

The XM25 is still a heavy weapon, with the final version coming in at 5.5 kg (12 pounds). The 25mm shells weigh over half a pound each (270 grams). On the plus side, there is already a 25mm armor piercing round (using a shaped charge capable of penetrating over 50mm of armor) available. This makes the XM-25 capable of knocking out light armored vehicles. Then there are the new versions of 25mm round, like fuel-air explosive (or "thermobaric"). Such a shell would cause greater <http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/20110516.aspx> blast effect in an enclosed space, and actually suck most of the oxygen out of a cave or closed room long enough to make surviving troops at least a bit groggy. This gives the attacking troops an opportunity to rush in and kill the enemy, or take prisoners. In combat, every little advantage helps. With the XM-25, hiding behind rocks, trees, walls or in caves will no longer protect you. There is also a flechette ("shotgun") round. The magazine holds four rounds, which cost, on average $35 each. The XM-25, with its 4x thermal sight, costs $25,000.

Meanwhile, a year ago South Korea got its first export customer for its similar K-11 20mm infantry rifle. The UAE (United Arab Emirates) ordered 50 of the $14,000 20mm/5.56mm weapon, to try them out. It was two years ago that South Korea revealed it had developed the K-11, which appears to be identical in concept of the U.S. Army XM-29 (or OICW). The South Korean version weighs 6.1 kg (13.4 pounds) and combines a 5.56mm rifle, with one firing 20mm computer and laser controlled shells. The South Korean weapon appears to operate the same way as the 20mm shell of the XM-29. The South Koreans plan to issue the K-11, on the basis of two weapons per squad (an infantry unit containing 10-12 men). The K-11 is about 25 percent cheaper than the XM-29.

It's unclear if the South Koreans found solutions to the problems the XM-29 and XM-25 encountered, or simply developed an improved XM-29 and decided it was useful in small numbers. The South Koreans have found that the 20mm smart shell is effective out to about 500 meters. South Korean troops began receiving the K-11 last year, and there's nothing to stop any NATO nation from buying a few K-11s for their troops in Afghanistan. Then again, maybe not. South Korea recently halted production of the K-11 because nearly half of those already distributed to the troops had design or manufacturing problems. So it appears that the K-11 was rushed out the door, while the XM-25 spent years finding and fixing problems before turning some over to the troops to do whatever was needed with the reliable and effective new weapon.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw
htweap/articles/20110516.aspx

John

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

Dwight David Eisenhower

Infected Android apps can hijack your texts

2011-05-23T04:21:59-06:00

Infected Android apps can hijack your texts

At least 11 Android apps contain malware that is rigged to automatically send text messages from your Google Android smartphone to phone numbers in China.

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It's all true and it's all scarey.

A sign of the times

2011-05-23T04:21:58-06:00

Subject: A sign of the times

Jerry, there's a new program on TLC (The Learning Channel) that says quite a bit about the way things are going in the US: Extreme Couponing. The program features regular people going to the market and racking up a bill of several hundred dollars. Then they use their store loyalty card, coupons, gift certificates and so on to bring the bill down by anywhere from 80 to 95%. Granted, the show's on a cable channel, not broadcast, but there still has to be a reasonably large audience for such a thing to make a profit. Has the economy really gotten so bad that people find it interesting to sit and watch other people save money on groceries?

Joe

Perhaps we all ought to be watching...

Global warming, global cooling, or whatever? Just weather...

2011-05-23T04:21:57-06:00

Global warming, global cooling, or whatever? Just weather...

<snip>North Dakota's highest recorded temperature is 121 �F (49 �C) at Steele on July 6, 1936 and the lowest recorded temperature is −60 �F (−51 �C) at Parshall on February 15, 1936. North Dakota is 1 of only 2 states to record their highest and lowest temperatures in the same year (the other is Utah in 1985).<snip>

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Dakota

Jim

I am sure there is some underlying process that can be modeled, if only enough money were spent on hardware and software ans studies by expensive people. Apply at any major university.

David Evans, formerly of the Australian Greenhouse Office, has become a skeptic.

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/
04/07/climate-models-go-cold/

Fundamentally, yes, CO2 is a greenhouse gas and should in theory warm the planet, but it is only one variable among many in the equation. The planet, through a mechanism we don't quite understand, seems to compensate for the increased CO2. This has been clear since the mid-90s, when climate science stopped being about science and became about politics instead. According to our correspondent, at any rate.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Jerry,

2011-05-23T04:21:56-06:00

Jerry,

I thought you might appreciate the delicious irony of draining the retirement funds of public employees to finance continued deficit spending. Perhaps this will encourage them to grow a brain.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/
2011/05/16/government-hits-debt-ceiling-
treasury-urges-lawmakers-reach-budget-deal/

Jim C

Jerry,

This is unbelievable:

<snip> Geithner, who has already suspended a program that helps state and local government manage their finances, will begin to borrow from retirement funds for federal workers. The measure won’t have an impact on retirees because the Treasury is legally required to reimburse the program. </snip>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/
treasury-to-tap-pensions-to-help-fund-government/
2011/05/15/AF2fqK4G_story.html?hpid=z1

So, now all we need to do is make a law and that fixes everything? They've lost their minds. non compos menti

-------- Most Respectfully, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

Keep those printing presses working. Maybe we will have $3 million postage stamps.

Rational debate on climate

2011-05-23T04:22:07-06:00

An attempt at rational climate debate

Dr. Pournelle -

Maybe one of your fans has been listening to you and did something. Apparently the meeting was generally cordial. As the author states at the end, at least somebody tried. "Would putting all the climate scientists in a room solve global warming... Skeptics meet Warmists at Cambridge" By Andrew Orlowski <mailto:andrew.orlowski@theregister.co.uk>
<http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/13/
downing_cambridge_climate_conference/>

Some highlights of the article:

"But the private invitation-only event I attended at Downing College Cambridge this week was no ordinary conference. It was an attempt to bring together leading climate scientists and IPCC figures with their critics."

"[Phil] Jones [of CRU] explained the temperature record. He said that biases are a real problem, and have a greater effect on the record than adjustments. He addressed the issue of UHI, the urban heat island effect, which critics say has skewed land temperature upwards, and hasn't been taken into account as much as it should have been. Jones pointed out that the UHI was evident in London 100 years ago – but it hadn't become greater over that time. "The trend is no different to outer London." Critics also point to the disappearance of 4,500 largely rural stations from the 6,000 formerly used by NASA, via the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Jones couldn't address this, but pointed out many stations aren't really independent; around 200 stations are needed to obtain a global average."

"The net cooling effect of clouds is 30W/m2, which is much greater than any of the figures mentioned above. So small changes in clouds will have significant impacts on temperatures."

"Svensmark saw four primary factors to climate change: solar activity; volcanoes; a curious "regime shift" that took place in 1977, and which has led to subsequent warming; and residual anthropogenic (manmade) components."

"The afternoon saw some fiery exchanges. Australian geologist Ian Plimer spent a lot of time on CO2 emissions from submarine volcanoes, which he said are not measured. Andrew Watson said his team could measure oceanic CO2 emission to 1ppm, and the output was negligible about 1km away. Plimer said he wasn't looking before and after eruption. Plimer was convincing on the long-term geological record. "I would like to see why 3 per cent anthropogenic CO2 drives climate, and the other 97 per cent doesn't". The official answer is that the 97 per cent of natural CO2 is perfect equilibrium, but the wicked (fossil fuel) 3 per cent tips everything out of balance."

"Mitchell's contribution was a mixture of the sophisticated and the simple. He rebutted the idea that you could not model a chaotic system and come out with anything useful. Obviously there's plenty of maths that begs to differ, and Mitchell mentioned some of it, such as Lorenz. Other arguments were odd: Mitchell used the examples of Mars and Venus – two planets which don't have biospheres. This example may prove that there's a greenhouse gas effect – but not much else. And it wasn't seriously in doubt. "People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful," he said. "Our approach is not entirely emprical." From the audience, Professor Michael Kelly, who served on the Oxborough Report, wasn't impressed with the thoroughness of this. Referring to using parameters as variables, Kelly said: "It strikes me as what you're doing is what we did in solid state physics in the 1970s, which wasted a lot of time. We didn't go back to our modeling as we should have, because it produced the right results. We quit while we were ahead." "

Pieter

Fascinating. Thanks. All extremely interesting and perhaps something will come of it.

UAV and other weapons

2011-05-23T04:22:05-06:00

From another discussion:

"a single UAV could now, potentially, stop an armoured battle group dead in its tracks in a matter of seconds"

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/12/
navy_spits_out_6kg_fire_and_forget_missile/

More lethal fun with cheap, smart drone aircraft and their weaponry

Well, yeah, if it works as advertised.

You know those letters in magazines for men where every guy describes himself as being amazingly well-endowed? For their day jobs, those guys write descriptions of new weapons under development, all of which are going to be real game-changers. Like the Mark 86 fire control system, which was specifically designed to engage small, fast, highly maneuverable boats (but in practice has never scored a single hit on a small boat). And Tacit Rainbow, a real game changer from the late 1980s. Tacit Rainbow was an amazing weapons system which could loiter over threat areas undetected and wipe out enemy forces. At least it did that in simulations, generating a lot of excitement until it was discovered that Tacit Rainbow was technologically impossible to actually build.

In on-going developments, there's the F-22, all of which are currently grounded because of problems getting oxygen to the pilot. (For $160mil an aircraft you wanted a reliable oxygen supply?) There's also the Navy's latest jewel, the Littoral Combat Ship, planned as an affordable, next generation surface combatant with dramatic improvements in capabilities, and which are advertised as "maximum combat capability for the dollar" but which an analyst (Raymond Pritchett) has accurately described as "...3000 ton speedboat chasers with the endurance of a Swedish corvette, the weapon payload of a German logistics ship, and the cargo hold of a small North Korean arms smuggler." All that for about $600 million a hull! And we have Gorgon Stare, subject of recent press releases in which the Air Force touted the ability of the system to surveil an entire town and spot important activity. The only problem was that when the Air Force sent Gorgon Stare to field testers the answer came back that it simply didn't work at all. It could look at a whole town all right, but it couldn't spot anything, let alone focus on it. (In the best tradition of weapons bureaucracies, the Air Force has decided to deploy Gorgon Stare anyway in the hopes that people in the field could somehow figure out how to make it work.)

In the best of times, descriptions of new weapon systems have to be taken with a grain of salt. Right now, with big budget cuts starting to roll and more expected, everybody is pumping out press releases about how their stuff in development is the greatest thing since gunpowder. But most of the time the only real difference between SF and those press releases is that the people writing the press releases get paid more than we do.

John Hemry CDR USN (Ret)

I thought this worth general circulation.

Reliance on secret weapons is often disappointing. As we pointed out in Strategy of Technology, you have to have doctrines and policies and trained troops when using new weapons. And practice. This is not to say that the technology war is not decisive; it does say that it is still a war, and in war everything is very simple but the simple things are ver complicated....

Groklaw is reborn

2011-05-23T04:22:03-06:00

Subj: Groklaw Is Reborn

http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20110515173831922

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Health care discussions

2011-05-23T04:22:02-06:00

National Health Care

I feel like the discussion of health care gave too little emphasis to what I feel is the most important point.

You are correct that our current system is that everyone gets some minimal level of health care paid out of (a) tax dollars, and (b) higher health care costs for everyone. The latter cost is because the law mandates that emergency rooms treat in emergencies, and some of the cost of providing that treatment for the indigent is spread over paying customers. As such, the discussion of mandatory insurance becomes a question of how we pay for this minimal level of health care, rather than a discussion of what is or is not required.

The issue that interests me is that setting up a national health care system of any type, whether it is called Medicaid, ObamaCare, or a One Payer system like the British use is a terrible political decision. It results in two problems:

1) Concentration of power. This is the source of corruption and cronyism. The more diffuse power is kept the less corruption is tacked onto th final bill. 2) A one size fits all system is created that does not allow for any effective experimentation with better methodology. I am a huge fan of the concept that the 50 states are laboratories of democracy. Push issues like this to the states and minimize the federal government's involvement. Note that to an extent this is already true of Medicaid.

I am not a fan of Mitt Romney, and I think that RomneyCare looks like a disaster, but his critics are wrong when they say that if he likes RomneyCare he should love ObamaCare. As I read it, states have the power to impose mandatory health insurance on citizens. The US Constitution grants no such power to the federal government.

-- David

I am in general in favor of leaving things to the States, where there is residual sovereign power not granted to the federal government. I believe that RomneyCare was legal, and can serve as an example and object lesson for all of us; and I do not believe that Romney ought to be disqualified for the position that it was and is a state matter. As to whether or not it is a disaster, I have mixed reports on that: it depends on what you assume would have happened without it, and I haven't the data. But whether or not it's good for Mass. I do not think it constitutional for the nation.

I would eliminate most of the federal mandates to the states on the subject of health care, and dump the problem in the lap of the statehouses. Let them argue freedom vs. equality.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free. Or have I said that before?

Compelled to buy car insurance

Dr. Pournelle --

There is commonly no blanket requirement for an individual to have car liability insurance to drive a car. There is typically no such blanket requirement to have a driver's license, either. There are only these requirements if the person wishes to drive on the public roads. Many a farm kid drives quite legally on the farm without either set of documents. Certainly, failing to obtain these documents places severe restrictions upon the individual but the option exists and is successfully chosen by many.

Furthermore, there is also typically the option of posting a bond in lieu of standard liability insurance, to in effect "self-insure".

States are also the ones who impose the obligation for car insurance. Their constitutions may or may not allow it. I see nothing in the US Constitution which allows federal involvement in health insurance. Not the commerce clause, not the power to tax an object, which does not beget the authority to spend for a thing.

People without health insurance do not impose a financial cost on others. "WE" have imposed this cost on us. Whether it is appropriate for others to pay for the care of people who cannot afford that care and, if this should be done, whether it should be done through the government or through charitable foundations is a debate worth having in earnest.

I agree to some extent with the former speaker's comments but those I have heard have been rather general. It's in the details where we find God and the Devil.

Pieter

The debate is certainly not over, and must not be.

"When health care is a free good the demand rises without limit."

Dr. Pournelle:

When nobody pays their own costs, the price also rises without limit. One can only imagine what groceries would cost if some third party was paying 80 percent of our freight.

The key to medical costs is to keep trying to introduce market forces back into the system via medical savings accounts and vouchers. At the same time, deregulate insurance rules and mandates to give people wider choices, and encourage moving away from employer-provided policies toward individual and non-employer group solutions.

It would also help to reconstruct the medical regulatory and gatekeeping systems to make it easier for people to become legitimate medical providers. Allow more personnel flexibility at the less-critical end of medical care.

Rework things like FDA regulations which require hundreds of millions to get a drug or device approved. A first step would be to focus on safety more than effectiveness. Make sure labeling is accurate, consistent, and transparent, and let people make their own decisions on effectiveness.

Computers used to cost millions and fill a room. Now everyone has their own. I see no technological reason medical systems could not have a similar renaissance, with diagnostic devices available to the average person. Right now, with prices artificially high, there’s no incentive to reduce medical device costs, and I suspect regulatory barriers also keep costs high.

I don’t have any magic solutions, but as with a lot of other issues, the key is the direction you travel: toward more individual choice and free markets and away from socialized one-size-fits-all mandatory concepts. When competition and variety become widespread, the solutions will develop on their own.

Tom Brosz

The Health Insurance Like Auto Paradigm

Based on my experiences driving in Iowa - a well insured state - I have some reservations about this. We have the be insured, be financially responsible or don't drive law that you mention. We also have a lot of scofflaws who drive uninsured. My last two accidents were the fault of uninsured motorists. In both cases, the police ( as they always do ), let the uninsured motorist go. They have better things to do with their time than to take some scofflaw to jail and no room in the jails to hold them. The insurance company told me in both cases, "You can pay for your own repairs or your can subrogate to us, pay the comprehensive deductible and hope that we can recover it for you from the uninsured motorist. In one case, they were never able to find the motorist. In the other, there were no assets to take, no income to garnish, ... So, not only was I out the deductible but everybody's insurance premiums went up to pay for the insurance companies losses due to the scofflaws. The bottom line is that with car insurance, it's well intended but it doesn't work. And, the estimate is that anywhere from 10% to 25% of the state population drives without insurance.

I can see exactly the same thing happening with health insurance. John Scofflaw goes to the hospital and says, "Take me in, it's your obligation under Federal Law." There are little or no assets to take or John moves and can't be found. And, the end result is the same as today. Medical costs and insurance costs go up to over those who can't or won't pay.

Pete

How do you opt out? Of course if you can't pay, your parts are worth money. Will it come to that?

Perhaps it should:

it is fine to say that you have to have car insurance or you can't drive. But in many states, many of the people who are driving don't have it. They may sign up before they renew their tags, paying for a month, then let it lapse for the year. I've seen numbers that it can be over 25% in some states.

The person who is hit by one of these drivers have to either file a claim on their own insurance, or go without recompense. Legally, you can go through the judicial system to get reimbursed, but try to make a claim against someone illegally in the US without assets.

At what point in the year would you have to prove you have health insurance? When you file your taxes? The people who can't or won't pay for health insurance will find a way to pass the buck.

Kevin

We can sell what remains of the offender's car. Perhaps...

fair healthcare

Dr.P

On fair health care. As Newt is found of saying, "there are always simple solutions, but simple doesn't mean easy". Here is my simple solution to make health insurance (sorta) fair: require insurance providers to consider the entire population of the country as 1 risk group. Allow deductions for healthy lifestyles. Make legitimate use of commerce clause to allow sales across state lines. Set a (low) national minimum and make states accept same. Require states to insure their citizens. Simple, and only requires 1 amendment to constitution. As a bonus, we get rid of medicare/medicaid. I can see a couple ways for states to implement. Buy a single policy to cover all citizens. Expend workers comp. to a full blown insurance. Require citizens to insure themselves. As a libertarian of the personal responsibility stripe, I have no problem with an individual mandate. As a federalist I do have a constitutional problem with a federal mandate. When states have to pay the bills perhaps they will get serious about tort reform.

Martin Lee Rose
"vote Satan; why settle for a lesser evil?"
{ Chutulu is too obscure a reference for most folks }

And if they are not serious about tort reform, let them pay rather than all of us. Leave Matters to the States is my default principle: if you don't, show my why you don't.

Jane Jacobs and Jane's Walks

2011-05-23T04:21:55-06:00

Jane's Walks.

Hi Jerry.

How Jane Jacobs is now being honored and actively remembered:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/arts/
jane-jacobs-honoured-in-the-breach/article2013286/page3/

and the Jane's Walks mentioned in the article:

http://www.janeswalk.net/

The idea is to take a walk and observe your own community, just like Jane Jacobs would have!

Unfortunately, all the walks just took place - I would have liked to have gone on one. Hopefully next year....

Cheers,

Mike Casey

Sounds like a great thing to do. Jacobs remains well worth reading. I don't always agree but she makes one think of things that ought to be thought of.

Discussion on health care

2011-05-23T04:21:54-06:00

Health care

Hi Jerry,

You'd stated:

"The analogy to automobile insurance seems to be overlooked."

Actually I think that's exactly the right analogy. A State (not the Federal Government) can mandate insurance coverage, but only for liability (to protect other people from accidents you cause). Even a state can't force someone to purchase collision or comprehensive insurance, which covers your own losses. I reject out of hand the idea that anyone is entitled to healthcare that they haven't paid for. We may choose to provide immediate life-saving efforts, but if you've chosen to not purchase insurance, once you're stable, you're out.

Cheers,

Doug

P.S. I'm VERY glad Huck dropped out. We don't need the party to move to the social right any more than it has.

The problem is that rejecting out of hand the idea that anyone is entitled to healthcare that they haven't paid for is an exercise in futility. I reject out of hand most entitlements, but doggone it, they keep being paid, and I keep being taxed for it. I don't know the solution to the problem, but it is highly unlikely that people will be allowed to die in the admitting rooms of emergency hospitals.

We may use taxes to do what amounts to buying (paying for providing) catastrophic healthcare to everyone, and thus we won't call that "compulsory premiums" although it wouldn't be different if we did. We then look to see what limits we can put on everything else. Perhaps we look at medical savings accounts. But the notion that we will let people opt out for their children and then let the kids die in the streets is the plot of a science fiction story I don't think I can write.

Leaving the matter to the states is one solution and one I would favor, but then I favor leaving most problems to the states. But I do not think you will be able simply to abolish what amounts to tax paid health care, and if it's tax paid you are buying insurance, and it's a compulsory purchase. It's just not called insurance premiums, it's called taxes. And rejecting those out of hand gets eventually a call from the public officers.

On Health Care Costs

Jerry,

In your essay, "A ramble on health care and candidates", you almost come out and say the dirty little secret. It is impossible for all to get the health care they would like and will die earlier than what medicine could provide them. We are only discussing who gets the short end of the stick; TANSTAAFL.

At the end of all the Sturm and Drang in the health case argument no matter whether it's the Democratic or Republican solution, all of the insurance contracts, laws, executive orders, and regulations will say, "If you are not in one of these protected classes, you are screwed." The only difference will be the number and types of protected classes.

The fabulously wealthy will be OK, they will set up boutique hospitals outside the long reach of the government. So we are left with all who are not fabulously rich which is most everybody else including me and I assume you.

So the question is what sort of system can be set up that most people will consider "fair enough?"

A way to cut to the chase in the silly season is to ask the rhetorical question "Is your life worth the entire wealth of the United States, including every individual's wealth? If not, then we are discussing where do we draw the line and how."

It's amazing to see how people try to wiggle out of the conundrum. It took me about a decade to finally convince my sister, a nurse, that medicine is a limited quantity and thus subject to the dismal science.

My hope is that surgery will not be so subject to the dismal science because of the ultimate development of Niven's "autodocs" that will come out of "Watson-like" software and autonomous robotics. But it won't be in my lifetime...

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

You raise the key point: what sort of system can be set up that most people will consider "fair enough"? And who will it cover? Do legal residents have more coming than illegal immigrants? And so forth. These are all matters that need far more consideration than they have been given.

The obvious personal solution is to become one of the fabulously wealthy, or else be somehow entitled to a first class organization's services. Now how do we provide that?

The complaint of most physicians about insurance is the micromanagement by non medical people. That extends often to government paid programs as well. Some outfits like Kaiser seem to have managed to insulate most of their medical people from the payment process, and the result is that most patients have confidence in the system. It works. But whether something like that can be cloned is questionable; and often trying to grow successful institutions destroys them.

When health care is a free good the demand rises without limit.

Sunday View Roundup 2

2011-05-23T04:21:47-06:00

Career Death by Powerpoint...

2011-05-23T04:21:46-06:00

Career Death by Powerpoint:
http://www.armytimes.com/news/
2011/05/army-frank-jenio-herbert-puckett-
fired-powerpoint-slides-052211w/

As I suspected, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not accept...

2011-05-23T04:21:42-06:00

As I suspected, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not accept President Barrack Hussein Obama's proposed starting point for near eastern peace. In particular, he rejected a return to the 1967 border on the grounds that the border was indefensible and led to endless war. "These were not the boundaries of peace. They were the boundaries of repeated wars."

Obama's proposal, made at Foggy Bottom in a speech to Foreign Service Officers, was clearly a government staged affair made to an audience that was not going to react with any surprises. There were no questions and no discussion. It was a state policy announcement, but significantly it was not made from the Oval Office. There were few pictures and I have seen none of the audience other than one in this morning's LA Times showing two young women in Muslim head scarves with one young man in typical diplomatic suit and tie. No significance was attached to that.

More later. The President and the Prime Minister did not seem to enjoy each others' company. It is clear that Netanyahu feels betrayed.

No Israeli government could impose the 1967 borders on the country. Surely Obama knows that. It is difficult to understand just what President Obama expected this speech to accomplish.

Prime Minister Netanyahu was barely polite when he rejected it.

Meanwhile the Arab Spring continues, but it is difficult to discern what it means. What do the street movements want? In Egypt we have the Lara Logan assault as one indication of what the protestors think is proper in the new society. We also have the burning of Christian Churches. I do not know if that is what drives the protestors into the street in Syria.

And the President of the United States has announced a change in US policy toward Israel. It is not clear what happens next.

According to the radio advertisement I am listening to...

2011-05-23T04:21:41-06:00

According to the radio advertisement I am listening to, most of this won't matter, since May 21 at about 3 PM Pacific Daylight time the world as we know it will end, and the Day of Judgment will come.

Day of wrath and doom impending,
David's word with Sybil's blending!
Heaven and earth in ashes ending!

What shall I frail man be pleading?
Who for me be interceding?
When the just are mercy needing?

I have always been taught that no man knows or can know the day and the hour, meaning that the Day of Wrath is no more likely to be May 21 as any other day. On the other hand, the Israeli Prime Minister will be in Washington, and will be asked to agree to the principle of the Green Line as the border for a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem. I suspect Israeli agreement to the President's latest Palestinian policy is about as likely as the Day of Judgment.

Newt Gingrich did a half hour segment of the Rush Limbaugh show talking about...

2011-05-23T04:21:40-06:00

Newt Gingrich did a half hour segment of the Rush Limbaugh show talking about health care. Limbaugh asked him about Ryan and the Ryan Bill. At first it seemed that Newt was evading the questions, but he was not, and he answered directly, but, as usual, he tried to be general before he was specific. As usual, Newt is careful, thoughtful, and consistent. He hasn't been emphatic about the fact that he -- and most of the conservative intelligentsia -- have had a change of view on the matter of compulsory health insurance premiums since the days of the Hillarycare debates, but he said it straight out. He has changed his view since 1993. He has not changed the principle: people ought to be responsible for their own health costs, not be entitled to impose them on other people. His general arguments are similar to what we have discussed here (no surprise). Once again he gets across the general principle: you cannot have universal health care without compulsory payment whether as a compulsory premium or as a compulsory tax. Once that point was made, he specifically said that the quote from him that appeared to be about the Ryan healthcare bill (which inspired the Wall Street Journal editorial Gingrich to House GOP: Drop Dead) were not about that bill at all, and that he has supported the Ryan plan, from the beginning. He also pointed out that he supported and publicized the states attorneys general in their suits against Obamacare. Asked what he apologized to Ryan for, he in essence said for not being clear enough in what he was saying and talking about. Newt made it very clear that he is not running for the "centrist" Republican position, and he remains firmly in the paleo-conservative position he held from the earliest days in the House.

This does not surprise me.

One may be critical of Gingrich for many reasons. He was critical enough of himself that he resigned from the position he ardently sought for most of his life, Speaker of the House. One may debate his policy positions. He doesn't have the kind of executive experience that I would want to see in a President; but he is the clearest and most consistent conservative thinker I know.

One commentator has said that "President Obama tells us he loves Israel...

2011-05-23T04:21:39-06:00

One commentator has said that "President Obama tells us he loves Israel, then kicks Israel in the groin."

An Uncertain Trumpet

2011-05-23T04:21:38-06:00

An Uncertain Trumpet

It is a bit early to react to the President's Middle East speech. I am not sure I heard what he said.

"The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states," the president said. "The Palestinian people must have the right to govern themselves, and reach their potential, in a sovereign and contiguous state." http://www.nationaljournal.com/
whitehouse/obama-urges-israel-and-
palestinians-negotiate-on-basis-of-1967-
borders-20110519

I do not know what a return to the 1967 borders "with mutually agreed swaps" would mean. Who swaps what? Israel might swap the settlements inside the West Bank for the Golan Heights, but the settlements weren't inside those borders. Who swaps what for what?

That, though, isn't really all that controversial, in that some concept of a Palestinian State built from territories acquired in the original 1948 war is the "basis" for a huge variety of proposals.

What we did not hear, and I can find no one else who heard, was any proposal about the "right of return" for the Palesitinian refugees, their descendents, their relatives, and so forth. Land for peace is controversial, but it is negotiable. Free immigration of Arabs into Israel, based on some kind of ancestral claim, is not. That would be the end of Israel. Since this question was not addressed and was only barely mentioned, the rest of the speech is meaningless in so far as it regards the Palestinian/Israeli question. It changes nothing of importance, although it may be an important signal to Israel about future US policies.

The rest of the speech needs careful analysis. On its face it is a paean to Arab Spring, an announcement that the US accepts that the street fighting in the Arab world represents a desire for reforms that will result in liberal democracy. There did not seem to be any attention to the darker parts of the Arab Spring: the Lara Logan assault, the destruction of Christian churches and neighborhoods, the rise of Moslem Brotherhood influence in the street uprisings, and so forth. There seemed to be nothing said about US support for stability in Egypt, or what is our official view of the Mamelukes in Egypt. We seem to have moved closer to a commitment to intervention in Syria, with Bashar Assad told to support democracy but not quite being ordered to depart: he's left in the position that Qadaffi was in before President Obama ordered him to leave forthwith or else. Repression will not work any longer. Dictators must learn this to their peril. Precisely what will follow is not clear.

It will take more study to understand just what policies this speech commits us to. It appears to move the US closer to the Palestinians and further from Israel, but oddly enough does not lower our commitments to involvement in the Middle East. It doesn't tell us what we will be doing about Pakistan. It says little about US interests. It gives us Jeffersonian rhetoric about the rights of man, but not much about responsibilities.

All of which is disturbing. Apparently our goal in the Middle East is the establishment of liberal democracy and the end of history. This was the intimate goal of the massive Bush invasion of Iraq, and the long term commitment of troops to Afghanistan after the initial success of the special forces in throwing out the Taliban. Is that still our goal? Do we still believe that is achievable? My impression from the speech is that the President believes it can, and we will continue to devote treasure to that end. At the back of his mind the President must understand that this will also involve blood, but so far he has not committed us to pour more blood into the deserts.

There was no word on what happens if the new Arab Spring regimes do not turn out to be liberal democracies, but something else. History shows that liberal democracy is generally not the outcome of revolution. Possibilities include one vote, once; Bonapartism; an endless succession of failing states with coups as the usual means of regime change; Pol Pot and whatever you want to call his regime; Idi Amin Baba the Last King of Scotland; the decades long misery in Zimbabwe ne Rhodesia; the long misery of Liberia; and I could go on.

It was an important speech, but I am not sure what it commits us to?

I appear to be in better shape than I feel...

2011-05-23T04:21:37-06:00

I appear to be in better shape than I feel, meaning that I am pretty well recovered from the flu that hung on for so long. It's well to have that opinion confirmed by the professionals. I should be able to get back to work again.

I have medical appointments beginning shortly. Mail and my commentary will...

2011-05-23T04:21:36-06:00

I have medical appointments beginning shortly. Mail and my commentary will be delayed until afternoon. With luck I'll find a remedy for the general crud that has kept me from catching up on all my work.

Rush Limbaugh had a good exposition on health care mandates and Newt Gingrich today. I don't know if his opening monologues are recorded and available, but if they are, his first forty minutes or so are worth your attention. As he notes, the origin of the movement to require individual responsibility for health care (with a system of subsidies for those who couldn't afford it) was considered a conservative policy in the 1990's, and much of its philosophical stuffing came from The Heritage Foundation. In those times Newt Gingrich, as Minority Whip, was the very essence of Reagan conservatism during the Bush I era. His speeches with his associates (Bob Walker as an example) to the otherwise empty House chamber in the afternoon, during the Special Orders time in the afternoons, were about the only conservative message the country got. Those were heady days, and they were important, and the conservative movement was largely founded by Newt and his people. They started in the 1980's, during the Cold War, when national survival was at state. They continued after Bush I fired every Reagan man in the White House, and Dan Quayle was the only reliable conservative in the administration. They continued during the framing of the Contract with America. We must not forget those days.

One of the issues in the 1990's was health care. Hillary Clinton had a plan which would have in effect imposed socialized medicine on the United States, and after the 1992 election that was a very real possibility. The health care issue came into play, both as a political matter and a philosophical issue. The conservative community was called on to reconcile principle with political reality, and there was much debate.

The chief question on health care was, how could the important requirement of individual responsibility and close coupling of payment with recipient be preserved? The debate was long, but one position emerged: Mandated insurance or membership in an HMO, with subsidies for those who could not afford any of that, were thought to be an important requirement. There was dissention within the conservative ranks about whether Congress had any authority to mandate the purchase of anything. I certainly held that position. But none of us thought that the States had not the power. Some thought it would not be a wise thing to do; but it was in most states constitutional, or so we believed. The Heritage Foundation agreed on the state issue and was divided on the federal matter. Some of the discussions reminded me of the debates between Jefferson and his Democrats, and Hamilton and his Federalists.

And it's time for me to go to my appointments. I will note that:

Rush then read a communication from Newt Gingrich saying, in effect, that he has been misquoted, he is in favor of the Ryan healthcare plan and would have voted for it. He opposed and opposes cap and trade. He does not appear to be retreating from his conservative heritage.

For the record: I have for most of my life been on record as saying that one qualification for being President of the United States is executive experience, as a Governor, or in the military, or as CEO of a large and vigorous private enterprise. One's first job at running something should not be the toughest executive task in the history of the world.

And it's time for me to go to my appointments.

My thanks to those who subscribed or renewed subscriptions.

Tuesday View Roundup 4

2011-05-23T04:21:35-06:00

Your rumor for the day

2011-05-23T04:21:34-06:00

Your rumor for the day

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

A fascinating story, if true.

http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=220879

Rumor from Die Welt states that Iran has struck a deal to build IRBM bases in Venezuela. Makes sense. Both Chavez and Iran could do with some deterrence, and neither has the ability to build ICBMs.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Now that is indeed fascinating. Monroe Doctrine anyone?

There is mail including a good bit on health care...

2011-05-23T04:21:33-06:00

There is mail including a good bit on health care, interesting news on climate debates, and other good stuff.

I have a medical appointment tomorrow. With luck we'll find out what keeps...

2011-05-23T04:21:32-06:00

I have a medical appointment tomorrow. With luck we'll find out what keeps laying me low. I know I am far behind on everything.

For platinum subscription:

2011-05-23T04:21:30-06:00

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

Patron Subscription:

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.

The radio clip of Obama's speech to Booker T. Washington High School in Memphis...

2011-05-23T04:21:29-06:00

The radio clip of Obama's speech to Booker T. Washington High School in Memphis keeps emphasizing that the students are poor and not a single one of them got anything handed to them.

I find that curious. Booker T. was the showcase black school when I was in Memphis (then legally segregated) and was the high school of the black upper and middle classes. Perhaps it has all changed since then. But of course if it has become a typical inner city school full of the children of poverty, then much has indeed been handed to them -- but by taxpayers, not their parents. Either way, I do not know of any school in which not a single person either inherited wealth or received government subsidies. It seems an odd thing to say in a speech, and even odder as the highlight of the speech.

There is mail including remarks on this.

2011-05-23T04:21:28-06:00

There is mail including remarks on this.

We had a pleasant dinner with friends at the annual Writers of the Future Awards...

2011-05-23T04:21:26-06:00

We had a pleasant dinner with friends at the annual Writers of the Future Awards at the Roosevelt Hotel. I understand it was broadcast live, although I am not precisely sure to whom, and I presume that there will be a podcast. The media necessities made for a different pace and procedures, and pressures, and the show had a somewhat different flavor from previous ones. I'm not at all convinced that awards shows of this kind ought to be broadcast. The model is the Oscars, of course, but even with some of the world's best entertainers working from expensive scripts they have trouble sustaining interest in what is, after all, an event of major interest to something smaller than the general public -- and that's about the movie industry. Awards to new science fiction/fantasy authors and illustrators starts with a smaller interested public to begin with, and what's inherently interesting to SF fans and pro's isn't so much so for everyone else. The people who come to the awards ceremonies have a pretty good idea of what they'll be seeing, and the general energy level in the room stays high, but I suspect I wouldn't have watched this show as a broadcast. Anyway, it was fun for us. I didn't get any pictures, but my guess is that the WOTF people will shortly have more pictures than anyone will want to look at, and of a lot better quality than any I can take.

I had a pleasant conversation with General Pete Worden, at present Director of NASA, Ames. Then Colonel Worden was one of the essential people in implementing Strategic Defense during the Reagan era. SDI was the decisive factor in the Seventy Years War AKA the Cold War. Pete has always been a strong supporter of space technology. When they get the WOTF Awards broadcast up as a podcast, I recommend that you go find it just to listen to General Worden's speech. The dream isn't dead, and everyone at NASA isn't dull. General Worden is a good speaker and he knows his stuff.

Sowing the wind in the Middle East

2011-05-23T04:21:45-06:00

The Middle East

We went out for brunch after church this morning, and as usual I picked up one of the weekly free newspapers always available in most Los Angeles restaurants. The one I chose was the Jewish Weekly. The front page cover was on the Netanyahu/Obama meeting, with a picture of Arab intafada rioters storming a barricade and the headline "When They Say Return, They Mean it." All the articles were written before President Obama's Middle East speech last Thursday. All the writers all looked forward to the coming speech: they expected a reaffirmation of US solidarity with Israel. None even hinted that the President would concede the 1967 border as the starting point for negotiations. It will be interesting to see what next week's issue will have to say.

On Friday, on camera in what ought to have been a photo-op demonstrating US/Israeli solidarity, a tightlipped Prime Minister Netanyahu gave a four minute (well, 3 minutes, 48 second) lecture to the President of the United States. This has been reported with various spins.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to think that America’s role in the Mideast should be to keep quiet while sending huge amounts of aid to Israel and guaranteeing its security no matter what.

The arrogance is breathtaking. And the lack of gratitude for the sacrifices America has made to protect Israel, with money and political capital, is infuriating.

In his speech Thursday on the Mideast, Obama restated a policy that has been a basis of American diplomacy through several administrations, both Democratic and Republican -- that a final settlement must establish two secure states with a border that roughly follows the lines that existed before the 1967 war.

After the two men met Friday, Netanyahu responded with a pompous lecture in the Oval Office that distorted Obama’s statement. Israel, Netanyahu said, can never return to the 1967 borders because so many Israelis now live in Jewish settlements on the Palestinian side of the divide.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2011/05/bibis_oval_office_lecture.html

From Australia

Netanyahu has warned Barack Obama against chasing what he called a Middle East peace "based on illusions" amid a widening rift in US-Israeli ties.

In a dramatic Oval Office appearance, after 90 minutes of talks, Prime Minister Netanyahu emphatically vowed Israel would never return to its 1967 borders and laid down a set of non-negotiable conditions for peace talks.

The exchange, which left hopes for Obama's peace drive more remote than ever, came a day after the US president called on Israel to accept a return to territorial lines in place before the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, with mutual land swaps with Palestinians to frame a secure peace.

But Netanyahu seized on the notion that he was being asked to return solely to Israel's 1967 footprint, which he said was nine miles (14 kilometres) wide in places and half the size of the "Beltway" highway surrounding Washington.

"While Israel is prepared to make generous compromises for peace, it cannot go back to the 1967 lines - because these lines are indefensible," Netanyahu said, looking Obama squarely in the eye.

http://www.news.com.au/
world/israel-lectures-us-but-
shoots-teen/story-fn6sb9br-1226060392668

Alternatively

Normally these Oval Office grip-and-grins begin with a few minutes of blah-blah from the president about America’s enduring bond with the other leader’s country, followed by a minute or so from that leader about the “productive discussion” they just had, and that’s it. Not this time: Netanyahu takes off here for a good seven minutes, parts of which are so cutting -- the conclusion about history not giving the Jewish people another chance is simply devastating -- that it’s hard to believe it was extemporaneous. In fact, by the end he’s facing Obama and addressing him personally, just to add to the theater. Bibi knew this would be his golden opportunity to pay Obama back for yesterday’s speech, and darned if he didn’t seize it. It’s riveting. O was probably completely blindsided by it too, but no doubt realized quickly that this little history lesson would soon go viral in the media and online. Hopefully no meaningful agreements were reached earlier in their private meeting, because if they were, you can forget about ‘em now.

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/20/
video-netanyahu-lectures-obama-on-why-
israels-1967-borders-are-indefensible/

Israel's position is clear. They are not giving up the bases and fortifications along the Jordan River, and they are certainly not conceding the Golan Heights without getting something important in return. They won that territory at great cost, and they took some serious chances when they stormed the Golan Heights on June 9, 1967. They have paid in blood.

The 1967 Six Day War ended with a decisive Israeli victory: they had taken all of the West Bank territories which had been annexed by Jordan after the 1948 wars. They had taken the Gaza Strip and the entire Sinai from Egypt. On June 9 they took the Golan Heights from Syria. Later diplomatic measures transferred Sinai back to Egypt in exchange for establishment of diplomatic relations in the 1978 Camp David Accords. Egypt renounced its claims to Gaza, and Jordan, which had laid claim to the West Bank after the 1948 establishment wars, renounced its claims to the West Bank. (The Kingdom of Jordan was established as Trans-Jordan, and renamed itself Jordan after the establishment of Israel and the establishment wars gave it territory on the west bank of the Jordan river; the name was not changed after the renunciation of the West Bank.) Israel has established security zones along the Jordan river. About half a million Jewish Israelis live in settlements within the West Bank. About ten thousand lived in settlements in Gaza until the Israelis voluntarily withdrew from Gaza in 2005. Settlers who did not voluntarily leave were expelled forcibly by the Israeli Army. The experience was more traumatic for the IDF than for the removed settlers, and it is likely that many Israeli troops would refuse the order to evict settlers from Judea and Samaria. Since that time Israel has conducted punitive actions against Gaza in response to the use of Gaza territory as a base for the launching of several thousand unguided rockets aimed in the general direction of adjacent Israel towns.

No Israeli government could return to the 1967 borders, nor is there much prospect of "mutually agreed swaps"; what would be acceptable to the Israeli voters would not be acceptable to Hamas, or indeed to any conceivable government of the West Bank whether elected or imposed, and for that matter would not be acceptable to most of the Arab world. Borders in that area are imposed, not agreed to; it has been that way for at least three thousand years. Indeed, one of the earliest battles for which we have any record was between the Egyptians and the Hittites over the boundaries of their spheres of influence. Borders aren't agreed to without military force behind them. The Egyptians did not agree to peace with Israel because of a strong desire for peace and harmony. They did that to get Sinai back. Although there are a few who dream of a greater Israel that includes the Sinai, that is not a popular position. Most Israelis had and have no attachment to Sinai, and the vote to return that particular land for peace was essentially unanimous. The West Bank area includes most of what was historically Judea and Samaria, the very essence of the ancient Kingdoms of Israel and Judah. The 1967 West Bank lands include all of Old Jerusalem including Temple Mount. Various international proposals to make Old Jerusalem and some of the area around it an international city have not been accepted in Israel.

The "Peace Process" might have worked at one time. The Camp David accords came close. The Wikipedia entry on this is reasonably accurate. The offer was rejected by Arafat who chose to start a new insurrection, possibly in the hopes of getting a better deal. One result was the Ramallah lynching, which turned many Israelis against any agreement at all. Whatever Arafat's reasons, there has never been an Israeli government willing -- or even able -- to make a better offer, and Israeli willingness to agree to what was offered at Camp David is gone -- and is now nearly impossible given the expansion of the settlements. Since that time Israel gave up rule in Gaza, and most of the accoutrements of sovereignty in the West Bank. The result was rockets from Gaza. The Ramallah lynching cost the Palestinians much of the sympathy they might have had in the West. There is now far less sentiment in the US for the Camp David Accord offer, and even less in Israel.

Meanwhile, the United States remains involved in three wars in the Middle East. We are past 60 days in our intervention in Libya. The expenses grow. We have done little to develop energy resources in the United States, and while President Obama announces willingness for more domestic drilling and refinery construction, there is a remarkable lack of change in regulations, permits have not been issued, and whatever his intentions they have not only not resulted in action, they do not seem to have filtered into the bureaucracy at all. The only US energy developments tend to be the hopes for green and sustainable energy which so far haven't produced many megajoules.

It should be clear by now that US interventions in the area have been expensive in blood and treasure and have not much advanced US interests. What has been poured into the desert sands would have been more profitably invested in developing US domestic energy sources. Had the money spent on the Iraq adventure been spent on developing US resources and streamlining regulations, the nation would not be so greatly in debt.

Low cost energy and freedom equal prosperity. Interestingly, I find few who will argue against that statement. It's just that nothing is done to implement it. We can hope that someone -- Republican or Democrat -- will realize that. Meanwhile, we continue to sow the wind.

Immigration questions

2011-05-23T04:21:44-06:00

On Immigration

From my mail:

more Gingrich!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/
us-usa-campaign-gingrich-idUSTRE74C3UV20110519

He's advocating amnesty now.

Time for you to admit you're wrong about him. And no, that does not mean hemming and hawing and talking vaguely about how maybe he has a point. He does not have a point. It is entirely within DC's power to enforce the law and make it unacceptably difficult for them to remain here; that DC does not is plain treason, and anybody enabling and supporting such treason is going to get caught in the crossfire when the shooting starts. Amnesty is the best way to trigger that.

They are invaders and will be treated as such if this country actually has any future at all. They all must go.

I don't know what it is that I am supposed to have been wrong about, and this interview doesn't change it. What Newt said:

Gingrich was asked a question on a different hot-button issue -- immigration -- on Thursday in Iowa, the Midwestern state with a key early contest in the race for his party's presidential nomination.

He preceded his response by acknowledging that he risked sparking another controversy.

Gingrich recounted how World War Two-era U.S. draft boards chose who would serve in the military, saying a similar system might help deal with the millions of immigrants living in the United States illegally.

"Because I think we are going to want to find some way to deal with the people who are here to distinguish between those who have no ties to the United States, and therefore you can deport them at minimum human cost, and those who, in fact, may have earned the right to become legal, but not citizens," Gingrich said.

That is not my definition of amnesty; and it does raise a question that must be answered. There are about 20 million illegal aliens living in the United States. Suppose that Congress and the President decided tomorrow that "they all must go." How would that come about? Merely transporting Twenty Million People is a non-trivial task. Assume that of the 20 million aliens in the US, ten million will require transport of 1,000 km (621 miles). That is ten billion passenger/kilometers. The total annual rail passenger traffic in the US, including commuter travel, is about 17 billion passenger/kilometers. They would have to be fed. Many would have medical needs. While many of them could be transported by rail to the Mexican border -- in boxcars? or must there be at least day coach transport? -- many would have to go elsewhere, some to Latin America, but many to Asia and Africa, and many to places that will refuse to accept them.

A non-trivial task, even assuming that we could identify them all, and assuming there would be no expensive legal actions required: just identify, apprehend, and transport. It would take an enormous budget to accomplish.

Now add political realities. It's all very well to grab some thug with a long criminal record and say "Enough! Out!" to the general applause of a vast majority, but even then there are going to be problems with the ACLU as well as various immigrant rights organizations. Assume that it can be done: what fraction of the 20 million will that account for?

Of course advocates of amnesty or the dream act like to show the example of a teenage girl brought to the US at age five, brought up to speak English and assimilate to American customs, earning a high school diploma with an A- average, and in general an all-American girl who ought to be college bound. Or the young oriental boy with much the same record. We don't have to concede that people with similar stories will be a very great fraction of the 20 million, but it is not zero, and every one of those will be paraded by the media as soon as apprehended. Who is going to throw Marie into the boxcar headed for Tijuana?

Incidentally that is not a trivial question: an operation this large will require a lot of police agents. Do we insist that they all be capable of handcuffing teenagers and putting them on the train to the border? Do we want a lot of people with that attitude to have police power? And what of illegals who have joined the Armed Forces? Veterans? Active duty soldiers? An operation this large may well require action from the Legions: will they pay more attention to the orders of their officers or the appeals of their comrades? Of course that's a silly question, but my correspondent did talk about crossfire and punishing treason, which probably means civil war, and the Legions, both Regulars and various reserves and militias and National Guard are certainly not going to be idle while that happens.

But suppose that all the questions of how to do it are answered, and there is magically a black box with a button: push the button and all 20 million of the illegal immigrants will be magically teleported to their country of origin. If we took a national referendum on whether or not to push that button, what would be the outcome?

It's no good saying that conservatives ought not think about such matters. Of course they must. The problem of the illegals amongst us will not go away simply because we don't think about it.

Note, incidentally, that Newt distinguishes between the right to be a legal resident and citizenship. This is not brought up in most "amnesty" discussions, but it should be. Citizens have rights, including the right to sponsor other immigrants. The Supreme Court has held that illegal immigrants have rights very similar if not identical to citizens, but that is not the plain language of the Constitution. A sane immigration policy will make that distinction -- including entitlements.

I am not going to "solve" the illegal immigrant problem here, but I will say that denouncing as "amnesty" anything other than a policy of 'deport them all and deport them now' is not useful. We aren't going to deport them all, and no Congress or President will do that, nor could even if it were thought desirable. The United States is not going to erect detention camps nor will we herd people into boxcars. We can't even get the southern border closed. Despite President Obama's mocking speech, we have not built the security fence mandated a long time ago. We probably could get Congress to approve a moat and alligators, although there are likely more effective means. We can and should insist on closing the borders. That we can and must do. It won't be easy or simple, but it's going to be a lot easier than deporting 20 million illegals. Get the borders closed. We can all agree on that.

That leaves the problem of the illegal aliens amongst us. We can and should do more to enforce employment laws; but do we really want police coming around to demand "your papers" from our gardeners and fry cooks and homemakers? For if "your papers, please" becomes common practice, there will be demands for equality; for not profiling; for equal opportunity harassment -- but you get the idea. Think about what goes on in airports.

Every time we bring up immigration policy, someone will bring up Angela and Maria and Alexa and Chanying, charming young ladies illegally brought to the United States as children, all speaking perfect English and thoroughly assimilated into the American Way of Life, none with a criminal record, and now looking to the future. They will also bring up Felipe and Ramon and Sergei, all young men with flawless records, all brought here illegally when small children, and all willing and eager to join the Armed Forces (and perhaps some of them already have); and it will be demanded that we say what is to be done with them. Those making the demand fully understand that there will be no consensus, but there will certainly not be a majority in favor of putting them on an airplane back to their country of origin.

Of course when that happens we ought to bring up the others, the career criminals with long rap sheets, and insist that the amnesty advocates tell us that they would do with these. And perhaps, perhaps, there will come a time when there is an actual serious discussion of the subject, and we can come up with policies and tactics that have a chance of working and of actually being adopted.

But we will never get there so long as bringing up the subject for discussion makes you a traitor.

On Newt Gingrich

2011-05-23T04:21:43-06:00

On Newt Gingrich

At some point Republicans are going to have to choose a candidate who can win the presidency. Rush Limbaugh famously says that he would vote for Elmer Fudd in preference to President Obama, and doubtless there are others of the same persuasion, but the reality is that the Democrats will have a heavily organized ground game to get the Democratic base to the polls. Republicans will do the same. The election will be decided by voters, who, given the choice between Barrack Obama and Elmer Fudd may just stay home; which would probably mean Obama's reelection. Thus it behooves the Republicans to nominate someone attractive enough to get people to the polls.

All the major Republican branches -- conservative, Tea Party, "mainstream", country club, and frankly liberal -- need to understand this. Obama's presidency has been a disaster, and that will turn off a number of those who voted for him. Some of those will come out in anger to vote against him, and they might even be angry enough to vote for Elmer Fudd; but there will be many others who were looking for Hope and Change, didn't find it, and need to be given some alternative they don't think they will be ashamed of later.

Obama is vulnerable, and this has brought out many people with a variety of motives. The Democratic political operatives obviously are motivated to cripple potential Republican candidates, particularly those who have pulled upsets on them in the past. Newt Gingrich is one of those: the 1994 election which gave the House back to the Republicans after years in the wilderness was led in large part by Newt Gingrich, who became Speaker, and thus was identified to political operatives as a dangerous man. One should not be surprised by attacks from all parts of the Democrat apparatus, including from the party's media sympathizers. Newt ended the Democratic rule in the House in a year in which few thought that could be done. It was widely suspected that the Republicans would prevail in the Senate in 1994, but loss of the House was a genuine shock to Democrat strategists. They have not forgotten.

There have also been strong attacks on Newt from other quarters, some surprising, some not. Some are simply political maneuvering. Becoming President of the United States requires, among other qualities, a very strong "fire in the belly", as the traditional phrase goes; those with insufficient resolve can be eliminated by intimidation or simply worn down. Political campaigns are as stressful as any human experience with the possible exception of military combat, and it generally goes on for a long time. Some of the attacks on Gingrich are clearly from operatives backing some other Republican candidate, and are largely designed to get him into a defensive stance.

None of this is a strong argument for Newt Gingrich as a presidential candidate. Few Presidents have come to office from the House of Representatives, and the qualities that make for good legislative leaders are in general not the same as those which make a good President. Of course there are exceptions. Abraham Lincoln had no previous executive experience (and not much in either the Federal or Illinois legislatures). Barrack Obama has no previous executive experience. In general, though, America's strong Presidents have come from soldiers and governors, even if this is not the only route.

Peggy Noonan has joined the conversation about Newt in her Wall Street Journal article "A Week of Shocks but Few Surprises", (Link) (WSJ Link).

Everyone knew Newt Gingrich was combustible, that he tended to blow things up, including, periodically, himself. He was impulsive, living proof that people confuse "a good brain" with "good judgment." He had bad judgment, which is why he famously had a hundred ideas a day and only 10 were good. He didn't know the difference and needed first-rate people around to tell him. But the best didn't work with him anymore, because he was unsteady, unreliable, more likely to be taken with insight-seizures than insights.

I wouldn't say that, but she has a point. Newt has always had a very great deal of the Great College Professor in his makeup. The mark of the great teacher is that when a student asks a question the great professor answers not the question that the student asked, but the one that the prof thinks ought to have been asked. That makes for great classes. It does not make for great politics, and Miss Noonan is quite correct in pointing out that being really smart is not the same as having great judgment. Judgment generally comes from practice, particularly from executive experience. Judgment is the ability to deal with problems and crises without committing yourself to a disastrous course of action. Those with great judgment do not always set a great course of action, and often do not know the right course of action: great judgment can let one to get past the problem while still searching for the final solution; to get on with what has to be done without knowing the final answer, but also without closing off the best action. General Eisenhower is an example of that. Of course really great judgment includes the ability to see past the immediate problem, to see the goal and steadfastly move toward it. It's rare. President Reagan had that quality. He was never the smartest man in the room, but he was often capable of discerning who was, or which ideas would lead to the best course of action -- and do that day after day. He made some great mistakes, but he also ended the Cold War without the kind of violent ending most of the Cold Warriors feared. The death throes of the USSR might well have brought back the end of civilization, at least in the northern hemisphere.

I would not say that Newt always tends to blow things up, or that he has bad judgment; but I will agree that he is far better in the role of advisor than as the boss. In the aerospace industry there is the post of "Chief Scientist". The simplest description of the job is that everyone in a project including the Chief Engineer must listen to the Chief Scientist, but they don't have to follow the advice. They do have to consider it. I wish we had a similar post in the White House. Chief Political Philosopher? In any event, I would far rather see Newt in that job than as President. Incidentally, I'd rather have that post than be President. It takes a certain frame of mind to want to sit in the worry seat, and a lot of stamina and endurance to be there day after day for years.

I won't comment on stories about Newt's personal life.

Peggy Noonan concludes that Newt's campaign is ended before it starts. That may well be in the sense that he has any chance of winning the nomination. It doesn't make him irrelevant, and he's generally the smartest guy in the room no matter the size of the room. Think of him as the Chief Political Philosopher of the United States: candidates don't have to take his advice, but they would all do well to listen to him. When he asks questions, they ought to be considered.

Gingrich, Ryan, and health care

2011-05-23T04:21:31-06:00

The Health Care Debates

Obamacare is the law of the land. The implementation will require funding, and that is in the control of the Republicans in the House of Representatives. What the Republicans do in this matter is important. Meanwhile the Republican candidates debate the issue, and the pundits evaluate the debate. This issue has enormous implications for the future of both the Party and the Nation.

Rush Limbaugh made several interesting points today. First, he was careful to point out that he is not endorsing any candidate, and he is not trying to talk people out of any candidate. He is discussing positions and issues. That's a fair statement of what I am doing.

It is no secret that I while Newt Gingrich was Minority Whip, and in his first term as Speaker, I was one of his advisors, and whenever I was in Washington we always spent considerable time together, even to the point of keeping the Secretary of Defense waiting in the Speaker's outer office while Newt and I finished a conversation on X Projects. Newt and I had a close relati0nship from the time he was first elected to the Congress and, having got my phone number from my editor Jim Baen, called me one morning to discuss my book A Step Farther Out. (Kindle edition) Newt was and remains a good friend, but I am not involved in his campaign.

Now to the issue at hand:

I note that the Wall Street Journal today has a large editorial entitled Gingrich to House GOP: Drop Dead. (Link) The language employed seems chosen more to blackguard Mr. Gingrich than to address the problem of health care. Gingrich. who is not in Congress, is accused of trying to throw Congressman Ryan under the buss. Not that it's about tactics, not principles: the editorial itself says Mr. Ryan's bill has no chance of passing the Senate; it's a tactic, not an actual attempt to undue Obama care. It's not seriously proposed as legislation. As the Journal says in its editorial

Yet surely Mr. Gingrich knows that the Ryan plan has no chance of passing this Congress given opposition in the Senate. Our guess is that a politician as experienced as Mr. Gingrich knew exactly what he was doing and that as he runs for President, he wants to appear to be more moderate than he has sounded over the last, oh, 20 years, by suddenly triangulating against the GOP House he once led.

So what in the world is Gingrich doing? Is it a sudden shift in principle? Rush Limbaugh has seen Newt more recently than I have, and Rush has a theory on Newt's position on health care. Limbaugh's theory -- and he is careful to label it a theory, not information -- is that Newt is not a serious candidate for President. He knows he won't win the nomination, and he is trying to position himself within the ruling class, taking up the leadership of the establishment Republicans:it is his goal to become the McCain candidate in this election. He doesn't expect that to win the nomination; he is looking to the years after the election is over, to a life of speechmaking, positions on boards, possibly an academic appointment, and frequent consultation by the media and appearances on political shows.

I find that hard to believe. It would never have been true in the days I knew Newt. He didn't waste ammunition and political capital, and he didn't make compromises with principle in order to make friends. The Journal article continues:

Mr. Gingrich's charge of radicalism is false in any case. Mr. Ryan is proposing a "premium support" model for Medicare of the kind that already governs health plans for federal workers and public employees in California and other states. The government would pay a set annual fee (starting at $15,000 per senior and rising with inflation) to private Medicare plans that would then compete to attract seniors. With consumers paying the marginal costs of their own care, providers and insurers will begin to compete on price and quality.

The irony is that Mr. Gingrich's own history of political failure on health care has made Mr. Ryan's proposals all the more necessary. In 1995, Mr. Gingrich pushed a "Medicare Plus" reform through Congress that shared many of the same features as Mr. Ryan's. It would have cut $270 billion from Medicare over seven years, while giving seniors a premium-support choice to join HMOs. President Clinton vetoed it, which along with Mr. Gingrich's refusal to compromise helped precipitate the government shutdown.

As Newt keeps pointing out, he has thought about this issue for a long time. I can't imagine him playing a game of this importance with the intention of becoming a member of the establishment. I think he is dead serious about the problem. I tried to outline that problem yesterday.

Whatever the outcome of this, the health care question isn't going away. We had some mail on this yesterday, and the debate will continue today. It is not a simple debate. There are matters of principle: who is entitled to what, and who is obligated to pay for it? There is the question of equality: is everyone entitled to everything, and must the wealthy be forbidden from buying more health care than the poor can afford (or the nation can afford to buy for them)? Which is more important, freedom or equality? And is this a Federal matter, or can it be left to the States?

Beyond the questions of principle there are political realities. The rock bottom principle of America is that governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, and the purpose of those just powers is to secure fundamental rights. Among those are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, but that list is not exhaustive. Where among fundamental rights do we place the right to a heart transplant? Does equality demand that if anyone gets a heart transplant, then everyone who needs one should get one? But it is impossible that everyone gets one, and even if hearts were freely available, those capable of transplanting them are not: how are they to be paid? Who sets their salary? How do we prevent the best from leaving public service and going to expensive clinics? Do we forbid the existence of expensive clinics in America? Does that extend to forbidding physicians from leaving the country? Shall we invade Mexico or Thailand or any other place that allows a clinic that does heart transplants on Americans without license from the Federal Government? Exile anyone who receives one? Send a SEAL team to extract the contraband heart from the rich person who received it?

So we have a scarce asset, and we forbid you to obtain it with money. How shall we allocate it? By lottery? By "merit"? Is everyone truly equal, or have those who are grossly obese, or alcoholic disqualified themselves? Who certifies the disqualification? How is this precious asset to be allocated, and by whom, and how do we protect this Life Committee (or Czar) from the terrible temptations sure to come with the job?

And among the questions of political realities we have the question of tactics: is this question to be fought on principle and principle only, or will compromises be needed? Temporarily or permanent?

My point is not that I accept Newt's scheme -- assuming he has one and is not merely raising the question -- but that there is a lot to discuss here, and there is no obvious answer to any of this.

General Principles

Associations before government: if it can be done privately, either for profit or as a charity or a local civic activity, better that way than government.

Transparency: in general, decisions affecting the public should be made public, and financing should be open in both source and dispensation.

Subsidiarity: if it has to be done by government, transparency and subsidiarity should prevail: administration, financing, and control at as local a level as feasible.

Obviously there will be disagreements on possibility and feasibility. There will also be questions of policy vs. control. As an example, some crimes may require national police powers for both investigation and apprehension, but often is it better to have a national policy but local implementation. If the BATF had been required to work with the local sheriff, the Waco disaster would never have happened. I could give other examples.

This discussion will continue.

A ramble on health care and candidates

2011-05-23T04:21:27-06:00

A ramble on health care and candidates:

I have a bunch of mail quoting other people quoting Newt Gingrich on health care, but not much quoting him directly. Newt tends to have coherent positions which can be pretty complicated, and don't easily reduce to sound bites. The one direct quote I find is:

"I am for people, individuals -- exactly like automobile insurance -- individuals having health insurance and being required to have health insurance. And I am prepared to vote for a voucher system which will give individuals, on a sliding scale, a government subsidy so we insure that everyone as individuals have health insurance.”

This seems to upset a great many people. Taken in isolation it ought to. The objection seems to be the notion that people ought to be compelled to pay for health care. People ought not be compelled to buy anything. Only that's not true. What I don't see is anyone being upset about everyone else being compelled to pay for health care for people who don't themselves pay.

The analogy to automobile insurance seems to be overlooked. Whether you like it or not, if you drive a car you must have insurance. It's not a choice. In most states you aren't required to insure your own car; if it's wrecked it's gone and that's your problem. But if you damaged or destroyed someone else's car, you have to pay; and the only way we have to be sure that you will pay is to require you to have insurance. Your option is to buy insurance, or opt out of driving.

The same thing could apply to health care. Does that then reduce to the absurdity that you must have health insurance or opt out of life? Not precisely: but in that case we have the absurdity that in order for you to be free of compulsory health insurance, the rest of us must be compelled to pay it for you. Only that's not an absurdity: that's the present situation. It gets worse. What we call health insurance in general isn't working. Most health insurance insulates the cost of care from the person receiving it. That makes health care something like a free good, and the demand for free goods is nearly infinite. Costs rise steeply. The incentives are all wrong.

I can recall having this discussion with Newt in the 1980's.

Newt has for as long as I have known him been an advocate for the kind of health insurance known as "medical savings plans" in which part of your health insurance payments go into a fund. You own your shares in that fund; they are used to pay for your non-catastrophic health care. Over time the fund builds, and you can get some of that money returned to you. The devil is in the details in plans like this, but I recall that several such schemes have worked pretty well. Employers buy the medical savings plan system for employees; if they don't use the money for health care they eventually get it as retirement savings. There are tax problems with this. As I have said, the devil is in the details.

I haven't spoken with Mr. Gingrich on these matters in a decade. I would not have advised him to say some of the things he has been saying, at least not in the way he said them, but I know him well enough that he is not advocating some form of slavery. What he is trying to do is address the problem that the public is compelled to insure everyone else, but no one is compelled to insure himself or his family. This is a nearly implacable problem. It is also a terminology problem: no one seems to get enormously upset when we say that you must pay taxes -- you are compelled to pay taxes -- but if we say that you must pay for health care then suddenly it is tyranny. Somehow the compulsion to pay has been separated from what it is to be paid for. If the money is to be paid for someone else's health care which he gets free, it's an entitlement for the other fellow and a tax for you; if the system is structured so that you are compelled to pay for your own health care but no one else's, it is tyranny.

Now I have no simple solution to this problem, and I'm pretty sure no one else, including Newt, has one. Somehow we must couple the costs of health care to the people receiving it so that there are incentives to conserve that money. We must be able to limit the benefits that we are compelled to pay for -- and the courts continue to expand those benefits without bound. It is astonishing what the courts are granting as health care entitlements -- but note that this is an entitlement to taxpayer money, which is to say that others are being compelled to pay for insurance to grant those various medical treatments, therapies, and treatments.

We can say that we want to be generous, but what responsibility for health care remains with the individual? Example: do you have a right to be grossly obese? Well, yes. We can all agree to that. Do you understand that gross obesity leads to very high probabilities of expensive medical problems? Well, yes. Well, whose job is it to pay for those expenses? I understand that you don't choose to be grossly obese, it happens despite your desire or will and despite your best efforts not to be that way. I understand that it is not your fault. We are not discussing fault. We are discussing the obligation to pay. Let's leave gross obesity and go to diabetic conditions. It wasn't your fault that you developed diabetes. On the other hand, that certainly raises the expected costs of your future health care. Whose obligations are those? You probably can't afford them all without insurance, and the insurance is going to be expensive; but do you have an obligation to pay more than someone who is not diabetic? If you had a diabetic mother the chances that you will develop diabetes are higher than if you did not; therefore the expected value of your future health care is higher than that of someone who didn't have diabetes in the family history. Whose obligation are those increased costs? Do we pool them? What if no one wants to join the pool?

We could continue this discussion all day, all week, all year, and come to no unanimous decisions. What can't happen is that the system of expanding entitlements to health care without any coupling of costs to those receiving the benefits will be sustainable. I had that discussion with Newt more than once when I was often in Washington, back before the question was so acute.

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. The present system of expanding entitlement to some and expanding obligation to all is unsustainable. The present system of saying that everyone is entitled to health care but is not compelled to pay for his own insurance is impossible. In reality you will pay for that insurance; and you will be compelled to pay. That's called a tax, and you will be paying the equivalent of premiums not only for yourself but for everyone else.

The analogy with automobile insurance it apt: if you drive a car, it is very clear that there will be car accidents. Who should pay for their costs? We have chosen to do that by compulsory automobile insurance. You opt out of the insurance by opting out of driving. But there the analogy breaks down. You can't opt out of life -- and in practice you can't really opt out of getting health care. Meanwhile, we know, absolutely know, that decoupling the costs of health from those who receive it leads to disastrous rises in cost.

One "solution" is "freedom." No one pays for anyone else. If you don't have insurance, take the consequences. Show proof of insurance, or a fat bank account, or some other proof of ability to pay, or die in the admitting room, have your baby in the street, bleed to death in the alley or in the back of the fire truck, cough your lungs out in a cheap hotel... Well, you get the idea. That would certainly couple costs of care with those who receive it; but it will also never happen. Well, then require that people have some insurance. How? Well, at the moment we do it with taxes: we require all the taxpayers to insure everyone, taxpayer, pauper, unemployed, welfare beneficiary, those retired with pensions, those retired without pensions, and everyone else except himself. Perhaps that is preferable to a system in which we require all to take out some kind of health insurance (and provide subsidies to those who can't). But surely we can discuss this? Dismissing the entire argument doesn't look like rational discussion to me.

That's always been Newt's problem: he really is willing to discuss most issues. Alas, sometimes he acts more like an academic -- more like me -- than like a politician who is always aware that no public discussion is ever a rational discussion. It's always political, and he needs to remember that, but when I knew him he often got interested in the discussion for its own sake. The one thing I am sure of is that Newt knows more history than anyone else I see in the race for president, and he's worth listening to. He also listens. A political race with him in it will be unable to ignore a number of important questions because he'll keep bringing them up. That's important.

Meanwhile, the political field is thinning. Donald Trump dropped out as expected. Huckabee's decline was less predictable. Others will drop out, and some will come in. The big decision is will be whether the Republicans run someone from the Country Club, a neo-conservative, a tea party anti-taxer, an intellectual, or a governor or former governor with actual executive experience?

There are a number of important issues. Actual experience at running something is one of them. Intellectual matters are also important. What problems ought to be left to the states? Is there any way to get the economy going again? All right, we know that cheap energy and economic freedom, cheap energy and fewer regulations, is the sure fire way to do that: which candidates understand that? How the steady growth of entitlements is to be dealt with is an important issue. It is not the only issue. It ought to be an interesting campaign season.

And that's a long enough ramble.

Sunday Mail Roundup 7

2011-05-23T04:21:20-06:00

Political satire? Just read the news.

2011-05-23T04:21:19-06:00

Political satire? Just read the news.

Dr. Pournelle,

A proposal for a governmental agency to quash Internet rumors - from Bill Clinton.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54951.html

“That is, it would be like, I don’t know, National Public Radio or BBC or something like that"

Steve Chu

Never a dull moment...

Democracy in action.

2011-05-23T04:21:18-06:00

Democracy in action.

<http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/267211>

--- Roland Dobbins

Arab Spring has mixed benefits. We have written about this before: more next week. And note the rebellions in Syria continue. US policy for the Middle East needs intense consideration.

The Indiana Supreme Court has stricken down the 4th amendment.

2011-05-23T04:21:17-06:00

The Indiana Supreme Court has stricken down the 4th amendment.

"Indiana Supreme Court rules Hoosiers have no right to resist unlawful entry of their homes by police" "http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/14/
indiana-supreme-court-rules-hoosiers-
have-no-right-to-resist-unlawful-entry-of-
their-homes-by-police/"

I'm sitting here mouth gaping wide over this one. Nazi Germany maybe. But this is, for crying out loud, Indiana.

Ah WHHHAAAAAAAAAT?

{O.O}

We have a great deal of mail on this matter, and I will deal with it next week. This negates a common law right held since Magna Charta.

The "forces of the Crown" will no longer tolerate defiance from any "tenement"

Dr. P,

Friday the 13th was a very bad day in the Indiana Supreme Court:

We believe however that a right to resist an unlawful police entry into a home is against public policy and is incompatible with modern Fourth Amendment jurisprudence. Nowadays, an aggrieved arrestee has means unavailable at common law for redress against unlawful police action... we find it unwise to allow a homeowner to adjudge the legality of police conduct in the heat of the moment. As we decline to recognize a right to resist unlawful police entry into a home, we decline to recognize a right to batter a police officer as a part of that resistance... Because we decline to recognize the right to reasonably resist an unlawful police entry, we need not decide the legality of the officers‘ entry into Barnes‘s apartment... Because we decline to recognize the right of a homeowner to reasonably resist unlawful entry, Barnes is not entitled to batter Reed, irrespective as to the legality of Reed‘s entry… Because Barnes is not entitled to resist the entry of the officers, his battery on Reed was sufficient grounds for his arrest.. In sum, we hold that Indiana the right to reasonably resist an unlawful police entry into a home is no longer recognized under Indiana law.

Looks like they’re right about folks thinking that we have a common-law right of forceful resistance tending to promote violence and increase the chances of someone getting injured or killed.

On the other hand, I wonder what “remedies” they would offer the widow Guerena, whose husband died thinking that he was defending his home and his family, only to be slandered by a spokesman from the Pima County Sheriff's Department.

Regards, William Clardy

"There is always an easy solution to every human problem - neat, plausible, and wrong." -- H.L. Mencken

We have not heard the last of this, but given the new appointees to the US Supreme Court the outcome is not certain.

Surprisingly enough, the L.A. Times gets the clemency issue right.

2011-05-23T04:21:16-06:00

Surprisingly enough, the L.A. Times gets the clemency issue right.

<http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/
opinion/la-ed-pardon-20110514,0,2912422.story>

-- Roland Dobbins

Astonishing.

The $4-TRILLION cost of AMNESTY

2011-05-23T04:21:15-06:00

The $4-TRILLION cost of AMNESTY

<http://takeaction.banamnestynow.org/emk/
link.php?M=4873015&N=1450&L=266&F=H>

The $4-TRILLION cost of AMNESTY! Help B.A.N. stop Obama's Amnesty Scheme

<http://takeaction.banamnestynow.org/emk/
link.php?M=4873015&N=1450&L=268&F=H>

There are between 12,000,000 and 23,000,000 illegal aliens living in the United States today. Recent studies have conservatively estimated the fiscal cost of granting Amnesty to these individuals at nearly $4 Trillion dollars.<snip>

Global climate

2011-05-23T04:21:14-06:00

Global climate

Aside from demonstrating the usual lack of skill in preparing power point slides, the following is interesting, if a trifle blurred.

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No5a.pdf

And interesting point is that the oceans had to have gotten Really Cold down to the benthic deeps during the Ice Ages and that the current ocean warming is simply the still on-going recovery from that deep freeze.

This was sent by an friend who is one of the best applied mathematicians I know.

And of course they did have to get COLD, and that's a very big heat (and cold) sink...

I am a bit under the weather and have taken the day off.

2011-05-23T04:21:13-06:00

I am a bit under the weather and have taken the day off.

Friday Mail Roundup 11

2011-05-23T04:21:12-06:00

Real Fusion Progress

2011-05-23T04:21:11-06:00

Real Fusion Progress

Jerry, It looks like Bob Forward's ideas on fusion may pan out. At least this sounds like real engineering.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/
2011/05/10/6619613-fusion-goes-forward-from-the-fringe

The other part of this that I like, if the Navy likes the final product (assuming there is one) it will be safe. After all, the Navy didn't put "A Bombs" on their ships until it was safe. I understand that is still the philosophy of the Navy.

John Vogt

I confess I thought that fusion research would have paid off more by now. But we have energy sources if we would develop them.

Life on the Mississippi,

2011-05-23T04:21:10-06:00

Life on the Mississippi,

Jerry

When Mark Twain wrote Life on the Mississippi, he spent the second half describing the river and environs as they then existed. I’ll pass on some of the sociological discussions, though I believe they should be reread today. What I have never forgotten is his discussion of how the river engineers had straightened the river to improve navigation (the first half of the book of course vividly illustrated why they wanted to). He noted how, with the constant shortening, pretty soon . . . well, he did know how to practice the “if this goes on” trick very well.

My grandfather lived and died in Lake County, up by Horseshoe Bend and Reelfoot Lake. He learned to swim in the river (local boys kept throwing him into the water until he swam away). He tells me that his own is father thought those river engineers, with their dikes and cuts, were foolish: “The river will keep its length,” he said.

The floor of the old house was six feet above the ground. My grandmother showed me where, four feet above the floor, the floodwaters had come in 1937. They had a picture on the wall of a “traffic jam” in Ridgley – boats meeting at Main and King streets. After that they built a really big berm. When I was young Granddad would often carry me out there and we would literally take the Chevy to the levee.

But if that levee breaks, all that will happen is a lot of bottomland will fill up with water and get another layer of fertile silt. That’s what makes it so productive. But downstream in Louisiana the US Army Corps of Engineers is engaged in eternal warfare, trying to keep the Mississippi flowing past New Orleans – there is a spot where the river wants to take a shortcut and that would take NO out of the seaport business. John McPhee covered it in his book, The Control of Nature. (His descriptions of the inspection committee made me think of Escape from Hell.) Anyway, the Corp’s efforts have caused the entire delta to slowly sink for lack of replenishment, and they’ve just barely been holding the river back. With this flood it might actually break through and take that shortcut. Stay tuned.

When I lived in Memphis it was known as "Bluff City" because the city itself was high above flood levels. That wasn't true of some of the farmlands around the city of course, and there was always worry about the levees. McPhee's book was very good.

Gutsy decision?

2011-05-23T04:21:09-06:00

Gutsy decision?

Dr. Pournelle,

The liberal meme seems to be that that the Presidential order to mount the operation to kill Bin Laden was "gutsy". I believe it was the correct decision, but what were the alternatives? Imagine that it became known that the President had actionable intelligence on the whereabouts of OBL and did NOT try to kill or capture him. Clearly we did not trust the Pakistanis to cooperate. I think that the President had no realistic choice other than to try. Of course there was a risk of failure that would have been damaging both personally and nationally. On the other hand, the consequences of not trying would certainly have been personally damaging and possibly (politically) fatal.

I want to be clear that I find no significant fault with the President in this case. My case is against the those fawning over what appears to me to be the only sane decision. The only real judgment involved was the timing. The guys in the helos were the gutsy ones.

Steve Chu

The Education Bubble

2011-05-23T04:21:08-06:00

Subject: The Education Bubble

The final two paragraphs in this post sound like something out of your "Higher Education" novel. http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas
/2011/04/journal-the-education-bubble.html

Can (will?) organizations do an end-run around the education system?

Cheers,

Clyde Wisham

***"New opinions are always suspected, and usually opposed, without any other reason but because they are not already common." -- John Locke***

I confess that I thought it would have happened by now.

Greenland Residents Happy with Warming

2011-05-23T04:21:07-06:00

Subject: Greenland Residents Happy with Warming

The residents of Greenland are pretty happy with a warming trend there to the consternation of Secy of State Clinton.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
world/as-clinton-works-against-
global-warming-in-greenland-some-
there-dont-mind-it/2011/05/12/AF5d
4O1G_story.html?hpid=z3

-- Dwayne Phillips

What a surprise!

Darth Vader: Obi Wan is dead

2011-05-23T04:21:06-06:00

Darth Vader: Obi Wan is dead

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I know that I should, as an American, be incredibly furious at the comparison made in this parody ...

http://www.galacticempiretimes.com
/2011/05/09/galaxy/outer-rim/obi-wan-
kenobi-is-killed.html#idc-cover

...

unfortunately, I can't stop laughing long enough to be angry!

Respectfully,

Brian P.

PS. If the article doesn't slay you, the comments surely will. Personally, I think it's very suspicious Vader won't release any pictures of the dead Obi-wan Kenobi. Verrrry convenient -- BDP.

If you do not manage to control yourself, you should report to the nearest government mental health center. What could possibly be funny about -- ah -- excuse me --

It gets even better. Turns out the German news report on which Seal team got Osama really missed the mark by only a little bit.

http://www.galacticempiretimes.com
/2011/05/09/galaxy/outer-rim/obi-wan-
kenobi-is-killed.html

Who knew.

As one might suspect, I have multiple letters on this....

_The Operational Code of the Politburo_.

2011-05-23T04:21:05-06:00

_The Operational Code of the Politburo_.

<http://www.rand.org/pubs/commercial_books/CB104-1.html>

<http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/
commercial_books/2007/RAND_CB104-1.pdf>

-- Roland Dobbins

re: killing Ben Laden & "if this had happened in the 40's"

2011-05-23T04:21:04-06:00

re: killing Ben Laden & "if this had happened in the 40's"

Yamamoto was deliberately killed in 1943 by the US Air Force. And I do not think that bringing him to a trial that would have had 100% chance of condemning him to the death penalty warranted taking extra risk to life & limb of US soldiers.

Jean-Louis Beaufils, Paris

Oddly enough I once worked for Thomas Lanphier, the Colonel (then-captain) generally credited with shooting down Yamamoto. Equally oddly enough I never head him tell the story. Most of what I think I know about it is probably wrong. I do remember the newspaper headlines in 1943 when the mission was accomplished. We all followed the war news in those days, even in country schools.

Sentences

2011-05-23T04:21:03-06:00

Sentences

I find the uproar in California over the Governor's commutation of the sentence rather amusing.

A few years back California was leading the pack in criticizing Bush for not commuting the death sentence of a female murderer. What the folks on the Left refused to acknowledge even when it was pointed out was that the Governor in Texas does not have a real power to commute a sentence. He basically serves as a rubber stamp to a decision of the Board of Pardons and Parole. Nothing unusual there, the whole structure of Texas government is based on a distrust of the Governor (and every other elected official living out of rifle range). The Constitution (1876) even gives the Lt Gov more power than the Gov!

So California is now screaming for a concept like used in Texas. But you can be sure that when a Liberal killer gets into the news they will be demanding that the absolute power of the Governor be restored to save their darling. To put it bluntly, the mob is fickle, and we have destroyed ourselves as a nation with all the pandering.

earl

Of course we could do away with most of this and simply have people's courts, with a jury composed of whomever showed up. Or have a public opinion poll decide important cases. But people's courts are the usual answer when the question comes up.

http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/
govt-and-politics/article_ec169697-a19e-525f-a532-81b3df229697.html

I think I'm going to be sick.

"Overturning a common law dating back to the English Magna Carta of 1215, the Indiana Supreme Court ruled Thursday that Hoosiers have no right to resist unlawful police entry into their homes.

"In a 3-2 decision, Justice Steven David writing for the court said if a police officer wants to enter a home for any reason or no reason at all, a homeowner cannot do anything to block the officer's entry."

(It is worth mentioning that Texas law is very different, explicitly so. See http://law.onecle.com/texas/penal/9.31.00.html and http://law.onecle.com/texas/penal/9.32.00.html .)

--John

Home no longer a castle

2011-05-23T04:21:02-06:00

Home no longer a castle

Headline: "Court: No right to resist illegal cop entry into home" http://www.nwitimes.com/news/
local/govt-and-politics/article_ec169697
-a19e-525f-a532-81b3df229697.html

'"We believe ... a right to resist an unlawful police entry into a home is against public policy and is incompatible with modern Fourth Amendment jurisprudence," (Indiana Supreme Court Justice Steven) David said.'

This can't be allowed to stand if we are to maintain even a pretense of our Constitutional liberties. What the hell is "modern Fourth Amendment jurisprudence"? Make it up as you go along? Do whatever you can get away with? The article even mentions that the Common Law principle being cast aside, without new Constitutional amendment or even new legislation, has been around at least since the Magna Carta.

Greg Hemsath

Liberal sociological jurisprudence governs. The notion of the Constitution as a contract is not in vogue. Ask at Harvard Law School.

Thursday Mail Roundup 2

2011-05-23T04:21:01-06:00

: Mote in Gods Eye came in second -

2011-05-23T04:21:00-06:00

: Mote in Gods Eye came in second -

Dear Jerry,

I never heard of the winner before, and wondered how such an unknown could win by so many votes...until I looked at the link and realized it was a UK publication running the contest. It is a doubly keen accomplishment that this was done in an overseas market. Now if someone in Hollywood would drop by and suggest they actually DO the movie..l..

R, Rose

"Use of Weapons"

Jerry,

I'd never heard of this novel (and I do tend to keep track of SF), and after reading the Wikipedia synopsis I could only think (in a voice like Marvin the Robot's) "sounds awful" (at least in respect to the original 1974 version which the author claimed required 6-dimensional thinking to comprehend).

I suspect ballot stuffing is responsible for its victory in the "best sci-fi film never made". That, or provincialism (both the poll-taker and author are English). I suspect a similar-but-less-successful ballot stuffing was responsible for the second-place finish of "Mote". That's not casting aspersions on "Mote", but it's hard to avoid suspicion when 3rd place had less than 10% of the 2nd place vote, and "Lucifer's Hammer" received less than 1% as many votes.

And I won't berate the point by noticing the injustice of NO votes for "King David's Spaceship" ...

Calvin Dodge

The Use of Weapons,

Jerry

Ian M. Banks is an intense writer who is more or less the opposite of you and Larry. And his books are generally memorable. They stick with you.

The Use of Weapons is a kind of living hell for a man (well, a male humaniform). It is a gripping, grim tale, with a whale of a twist at the end. Highly recommended. I also highly recommend Look to Windward as a more approachable story set in the same universe.

I do not believe I have ever met Ian Banks, and while I have probably read one of his earlier books I have no memory of that; which is not a denigration of Banks, but of my absentmindedness. His politics are not mine.

Wednesday Mail Roundup 4

2011-05-23T04:20:58-06:00

Jimmy Doolittle's Granddaughter on the Tokyo Raid

2011-05-23T04:20:56-06:00

Jimmy Doolittle's Granddaughter on the Tokyo Raid

After looking at the youtube, there are other raid clips. They are all interesting. Note especially what the destroyer accompanying the carrier is doing in that sea.

Newport Beach lifeguards make over 100K/yr

2011-05-23T04:20:55-06:00

Newport Beach lifeguards make over 100K/yr

<http://orangepunch.ocregister.com/2011/05/10/lifeguarding-in-oc-is-totally-lucrative-some-make-over-200k/44783/>

Sounds like a great deal unless you have to live there...in Newport Beach, that’s about minimum wage...

They can retire at age 50, too, same as police and firemen.

“Lifeguard salaries here are well within the norm of other city employees.”

<http://orangepunch.ocregister.com/
2011/05/10/lifeguarding-in-oc-is-totally-
lucrative-some-make-over-200k/44783/>

---- Roland Dobbins

Floods in MidWest = Global Warming?

2011-05-23T04:20:54-06:00

Floods in MidWest = Global Warming?

In listening to the coverage on the floods I hear many direct or indirect claims that this flooding is because of AGW.

At the same time I see from the coverage that this is not the highest floodwater peak in Memphis and (IMHO) far more importantly, I never, ever hear anyone address the change in square miles of impervious surface in the basin areas of the Mississippi and its tributaries.

Here in the Atlanta area we rarely heard of major floods of Peachtree and Nancy Creeks until the late 70's and early 80's. It started happening fairly often and was blamed on the significantly increased runoff caused by development.

I don't know where to find that datum on impervious surface area for those basins, but I have to believe that between buildings, roads, driveways, parking lots, etc. it has increased significantly in the past 70-80 years. That has got to be a factor in flood levels.

Regards,

John

John Harlow, President BravePoint

The flood is caused by the melting snow. So far as I know the massive snowfalls were not predicted by the AGW models, nor do they explain the El Nino/La Nina conditions that seem to govern precipitation in North America.

Maine Ice Age Rebound

This may interest the community: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/
2011/05/maine-earthquakes/#more-59631

- Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC

Mysterious Maine Earthquakes Caused by Ice Age Rebound

2011-05-23T04:20:51-06:00

Mysterious Maine Earthquakes Caused by Ice Age Rebound

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/category/earth-science/

I have found this phenomena described elsewhere.

CBS

As I recall from high school, rebound earthquakes in formerly glaciated areas have been going on for a long time, and are less common now than they used to be.

Dr Spencer

2011-05-23T04:20:50-06:00

Dr Spencer

Jerry,

Dr. Spencer reports that global temperatures are trending upward again as the La Nina relaxes.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/
uah-temperature-update-for-april-2011-0-12-deg-c/

Jim

Tornadoes versus Blizzards

Temperatures below average for longer into the year than usual? Above-average snowfall? "That doesn't prove anything because the weather is not the climate!"

Tornadoes? "This is a direct result of Global Warming!"

-- Mike T. Powers

Do you belong to the elites

2011-05-23T04:20:49-06:00

SUBJECT: Do you belong to the elites

Hi Jerry.

A tongue-in-cheek test for one's elite status. The test contains a few questions that are Canadian specific, and can be ignored, but the interesting bits are in the commentary after the test, and on the second page of the article.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
news/opinions/opinion/do-you-belong-
to-the-elites-take-this-test-
and-see/article1787865/page2/

Cheers,

Mike Casey

Actresses speaking out

2011-05-23T04:20:48-06:00

Subject: Actresses speaking out

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

A recent letter included mistakes I made in the past, and was unfair to a rather talented lady.

Sigourney Weaver is talented, educated, and attractive. She has won nominations and awards for many performances in her long career, which is not limited to movies. She has a masters degree from Yale, no easy accomplishment. As for beauty, the brief scene in _Alien_ is overblown by those with limited observation. Her nude scenes in _Half Moon Street_ allow her to steal a movie from Michael Caine, a very fine actor.

Ms. Weaver's interest in environmentalism probably comes from studying Dian Fossey for the role in _Gorillas in the Mist_. She is Honorary Chairman of The Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund, and has spoken publicly on many issues. I would not care to debate her on an environmental issue. Assuming anyone has limited knowledge outside of a single profession is a dangerous assumption. Look at what Joan Crawford and Hedy Lamarr did.

regards,

William L. Jones

Germans tell us who really killed Bin Laden

2011-05-23T04:20:47-06:00

Germans tell us who really killed Bin Laden

Jerry,

I wouldn’t have believed it, if it wasn’t reported by the news. Check out who really went in to get Bin Laden.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20061024-71.html

Sean

Gee, who would have suspected...

Counter-Strike FPS game level replicates bin Laden's Abbotabad compound.

<http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/
2011/05/09/video-game-level-
replicates-bin-laden-compound/>

-- Roland Dobbins

Special Operations: SEALs And Their Dogs,

Jerry

A tail of dogs and SEALs:

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/20110508.aspx

Woof! What great gear these pups are getting!

An amazing military dog op

Dear Jerry,

http://blogs.reuters.com/fullfocus/2011/05/09/editors-choice/#a=1

Hopefully this link will lead to the picture with the dog. I wonder if these dogs become as much of adrenaline junkies as the people do.

I hope you are feeling better. I am in one of the groups that get nagmail from Kaiser about getting my flu and pneumonia shots, I got them all last year and still got a few really ugly viruses this year. Flu? Who knows? A real downer and discomfort? You bet! Get well soon!

Rose

Hi, Jerry. You note….

2011-05-23T04:20:46-06:00

Hi, Jerry. You note….

Firefox 4

When I downloaded Firefox 4 it ate most of my bookmarks. When I downloaded firefox 4.01 it ate everything except Google search. It is horrible.. Stay with Firefox 3.6.17. If you are running windows 7 do not go to a restore point. Firefox seems to be immune to being restored and retaliated by crashing my computer Luckily the Firefox help pages tell you how to revert to the old version. I am running an untweaked version of Windows 7, so I suspect that this will be a common problem. John Edwards

I have nothing good to report about Firefox 4.

The “New and Improved!!!” Firefox 4 moves most of the functionality to the new “Awesome Firefox” button, which ain’t so “awesome”. Click that Firefox button and select Options, then “Menu Bar”. This restores the normal Windoze Menu bar, and puts a LOT of things back where they were in previous versions. Still not great, but livable.

Ken Mitchell

Google Chrome hacked

2011-05-23T04:20:45-06:00

Google Chrome hacked

<http://www.zdnet.com/blog/security/
google-chrome-hacked-with-sophisticated
-exploit/8626?tag=nl.e589> I had recommended Chrome in the past.

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.;
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

Monday Mail Roundup 6

2011-05-23T04:20:44-06:00

Just WHAT were our sailors forced to do for Osama's funeral?

2011-05-23T04:20:43-06:00

Just WHAT were our sailors forced to do for Osama's funeral?

Osama bin Laden was buried at sea, supposedly with a proper Muslim ceremony. Andrew Bostom reveals what all that entails. I am very disgusted.

Did Naval Burial Ceremony for Bin Laden Curse Jews and Christians, and Confer Pardon and Paradise on the Muslim Mass Murderer? "http://www.andrewbostom.org/blog/2011/05/07/
did-naval-burial-ceremony-for-bin-laden-curse-
jews-and-christians-and-confer-pardon-and-
paradise-on-the-muslim-mass-murderer/"

May bin Laden suffer the right and proper torments in hell.

{^_^}

Osama photo, why not release it?

Why is the USA not releasing photos of Osmamas face after they had him, simple, because when they had him, he did not have one.

The reports I have seen say that he was hit twice in the face. They also say that even the SEALs there were not certain they had the right guy after that, the damage to his face making him unrecognizable. About all they knew was that he was 6 ft 4, and so one SEAL offered to lie down next to him to see if he was, they not having any other way to measure him.

Conclusion, releasing a picture of him would be no help, since no one would recognize him from it. Some would say it was not him, and start conspiracy theories. Others would agree it is him, but be angered by the damage done to his face. Yet others would say "how can you release such a gruesom photo"? Look like a lose lose situation to me.

Legatus

Holder vs. Holder,

2011-05-23T04:20:42-06:00

Holder vs. Holder,

Jerry

Thought you’d find this interesting: “Why does the Obama Justice Department seem to have trouble mounting a full-throated, compelling legal defense of Osama bin Laden’s killing? The problem for Eric Holder the attorney general could be Eric Holder the private attorney.

“In 2004, Mr. Holder chose to file an amicus brief on behalf of Jose Padilla, the al-Qaeda terrorist sent to our country by bin Laden and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to carry out a post-9/11 second wave of attacks. In the brief, Holder argued that a commander-in-chief lacks the constitutional authority to do what his boss, the current commander-in-chief, has just done: determine the parameters of the battlefield. By Holder’s lights -- at least when the president is not named Obama -- an al-Qaeda terrorist must be treated as a criminal defendant, not an enemy combatant, unless he is encountered on a traditional battlefield:”

http://www.nationalreview.com/
articles/266657/holder-vs-holder-andrew-c-mccarthy

“It would be useful if staffers at congressional oversight hearings passed around copies of Holder’s Padilla brief. It is a comprehensive attack on Bush counterterrorism, an enthusiastic endorsement of the law-enforcement approach in vogue during the Clinton era (when Holder was deputy attorney general under Janet Reno, who also signed on to the Padilla brief). This might explain why Holder sometimes has difficulty answering seemingly easy questions. That’s what happened this week, when the Senate Judiciary Committee quizzed the attorney general on the lawfulness of the U.S. military’s targeted killing of bin Laden.” <snip>

“A few days after the 9/11 atrocities, Congress -- by huge bipartisan margins -- enacted a sweeping authorization of the use of military force (AUMF). The AUMF, which was promptly signed by President Bush and has been reaffirmed repeatedly in congressional appropriations signed by Presidents Bush and Obama, states in pertinent part:

The President is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons. <snip>

And so forth. The piece goes on to show how the attorney general tries to wiggle out of this, but he clearly has difficulty differentiating the justifiable acts of the virtuous current administration from the unjustifiable acts of the previous evil administration. Typical.

“It was kind of cryptic. I’m not used to reading cursive or writing...

2011-05-23T04:20:40-06:00

“It was kind of cryptic. I’m not used to reading cursive or writing it myself.”

<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/28/us/28cursive.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Firefox 4

2011-05-23T04:20:39-06:00

Firefox 4

Jerry, First my credentials. If you disassembled a motor car that I had never seen to the last nut and bolt, I could reassemble it. Where computers are concerned I am like the driver who only knows enough to check the oil, water, and tyres. Anything else being left to a professional mechanic. When I downloaded Firefox 4 it ate most of my bookmarks. When I downloaded firefox 4.01 it ate everything except Google search. It is horrible.. Stay with Firefox 3.6.17. If you are running windows 7 do not go to a restore point. Firefox seems to be immune to being restored and retaliated by crashing my computer Luckily the Firefox help pages tell you how to revert to the old version. I am running an untweaked version of Windows 7, so I suspect that this will be a common problem. I know that a lot of your readership are computer experts who will smile at my lack of skill but I issue this warning to those of us who regard the computer as a tool and are indifferent to the niceties of coding. John Edwards

I have nothing good to report about Firefox 4.

Meet the MH-47G, capable of going where no Blackhawk has gone before

2011-05-23T04:20:36-06:00

Meet the MH-47G, capable of going where no Blackhawk has gone before

Dr. P,

Blackhawks are not the real workhorses in Afghanistan, the Chinooks are.

If you remember the SEAL who was killed during Operation Anaconda a few years ago, the birds used in the extracting that team (including the one shot down) were all Chinooks.

The MH-47 Chinook helicopter conducts overt and covert infiltration, exfiltration, air assault, resupply, and sling-load operations over a wide range of environmental conditions. The aircraft can perform a variety of other missions including shipboard, platform, urban, water, parachute, forward arming and refueling point, mass casualty, and combat search and rescue operations. Using special mission equipment and night vision devices, MH-47 aircrews can operate in hostile mission environments over all types of terrain at low altitudes during periods of low visibility and low ambient lighting conditions with pinpoint navigation accuracy.

http://www.soc.mil/160th/Chinook.html

For something more informative than the Nightstalkers’ official website, you might try:

http://www.chinook-helicopter.com/
model_comparison/MH-47E_specifications.html

http://www.chinook-helicopter.com/
history/MH-47G_Model_History.html

Regards, William Clardy

"There is always an easy solution to every human problem - neat, plausible, and wrong." -- H.L. Mencken

But we were told this was a covert operation, and only two BlackHawks were used, and no one noticed as they wended their way into Highland Falls and assaulted a house very near the Academy, and...

The point actually being that if you remove the restriction that this has to be quick and completely covert, many options emerge. Two assault BlackHawks, followed by a fleet of extraction vehicles. Surely no one would notice a sky train like that moving in from the Afghani border to Abbottabad.

Pakistan PM Warns of 'Full Force' Response to Future U.S. Raids - FoxNews.com

Jerry,

How much is real and how much is bluster for domestic politics?

If they hadn't crashed a helicopter, perhaps the US would have exploited plausible deniability?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/
2011/05/09/pakistan-backlash-
mounts-does-opportunity-new-terror-targets/

Of course the big issue is sovereignty. Perhaps even nations that have 200+ nukes are no longer considered sovereign by the US? Perhaps the Pakistani government will use it's nukes to assert it's sovereignty? If not, perhaps the government will be replaced with a military theocracy that will. If this explains Obama's 16 hour hesitation, then he has earned my respect.

Jim Crawford

What seems obvious to me is that Pakistan (1) knew we we coming, (2) will never admit it, and (3) counted on plausible deniability. We got in and got out. As you point out, the wreck of an undeniable US helicopter wrecked some pretty good cover stories.

OBL

Here's a question I haven't seen asked, and it's a simple one: why would you shoot Bin Laden in the head when inside that head is the answer to just about every major question you'd have about his organization, its sources, methods, and plans, starting with "Where's your Number 2 man?" I can see it if he's shooting at you, but that doesn't seem to have been the case. It just doesn't make sense, like taking a power drill to his hard drive before you've sucked the data off of it. Certainly you might want the world to believe he's dead, but a dead man tells no tales...

All the best--

Tim Loeb

I have heard many conspiracy theories about what horrors bin Laden could relate and how damaging that would all be to the secret masters of America. We know that the original Delta Team orders when we first went to Tora Bora were KILL BIN LADEN. Those could be changed by the President, but apparently they never have been. I have no serious comment on the conspiracy theory. Such conspiracies are very hard to keep quiet. Of course the bin Laden operation was extraordinarily successful at preserving secrecy. Bin Laden was never warned. By anyone. It would not have taken a lot of warning.

The Doolittle Raid (comments by his Granddaughter)

2011-05-23T04:20:57-06:00

Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo - Doolittle's Raiders

This is very interesting. Jimmy Doolittle's granddaughter speaking about the raid on Tokyo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgt8PMoRGG8&featur

I learned a good bit from watching that video. It's not very long. Recommended.

Why shoot Osama?

2011-05-23T04:20:53-06:00

Re: OBL

Why would you shoot Osama? That's easy. Let's think it through for a second. First, where do you stash him? An Afghan jail? I seem to have heard something about that recently, suggesting it isn't a great idea. Secret CIA prison? Hmm, I seem to recall somebody at a fairly high level in the US government who was against that plan. Gitmo? Wasn't there a promise to shut it down a year ago? How would it look if a man who ran on a platform to end Gitmo put high profile prisoners there? A US prison? No, that would entitle him, as per US courts, to the protection of the US legal system, including discovery. We've already lost classified information and sources because lawyers used discovery to release classified information and who gave it to us to terrorist sympathizers.

But we'll handwave that away, and say we can keep him in the phantom zone. Now, how do we question him? Waterboarding, something we do to every SERE class, is torture when we do it to a man who isn't protected by the Geneva Convention, except for the part we were wise enough not to sign, but is just harsh training if we do it to me. Instead, we can basically bore him until he wants to talk. Now if they grabbed me, I'd be tortured to death with real torture, involving blow torches, drills and other such pleasant devices. They still claim we must treat our prisoners well lest our men be mistreated upon capture, which would make me hysterical if I hadn't seen what happens in real life.

So, with no chance we can get actionable information in time to do anything about it, why bother? Three years ago I'd have been willing to lose men to get UBL alive. Now, no point. You may have noticed that three years ago we'd occasionally announce the capture of some named terrorist. Now we announce they received a Hellfire Enema instead. At the time we put the current policies into place it was widely speculated that the result would be fewer prisoners, more deaths and more collateral damage, and nobody should be surprised to see it happens. I do fail to see how this is more morally defensible, but that's not my job. I fail to see why it was worth calling for war crimes trials three years ago and is now a wise move, but that's not my job either. I was wondering how the change would be defended, but I see the method chosen was to ignore the question.

On the bin Laden raid

2011-05-23T04:20:52-06:00

The bin Laden Raid.

Col. Couvillon is of course 100% correct - there were not 40 people inside the house, nor could that number of personnel be accommodated, along with their equipment, in fewer than 4 Blackhawk variants. 8 shooters max inside a house of that size, else they'd get in one another's way and risk shooting one another.

The raid was obviously planned as a flat-out assassination. Even if bin Laden had an RPG or a crew-served weapon in his bedroom, all the SEALs had to do was to toss in a couple of handfuls of flash-bangs and CS-gas grenades into the room in order to completely incapacitate anyone within, then drag out whomever they wanted to extract.

I believe that handling this as an assassination and then disposing of the body at sea borders on the criminally incompetent. There was immense propaganda and intelligence value in taking bin Laden alive; assuming it was in fact bin Laden who was killed in Abbottabad, the Administration handled the situation with their typical lack of finesse.

--- Roland Dobbins

I do note that the official story is not well crafted if the notion is that it should be believed. I could have devised a better story myself, and I don't think I am all that much smarter than the troops who had the job to do. One may question the judgment of the king, but it is not necessarily the case that all the minions are as lackwit as their master.

Tornadoes and global warming

2011-05-23T04:20:41-06:00

Spencer

Jerry,

Dr. Roy Spencer on the tornado outbreak in Huntsville.

www.drroyspencer.com

I particularly call your attention to his April 29 blog post:

MORE Tornadoes from Global Warming? That’s a Joke, Right? <http://www.drroyspencer.com/
2011/04/more-tornadoes-from-global-warming-thats-a-joke-right/>

<snip>For example, the poster child for active tornado seasons was the Superoutbreak of 1974, which was during globally cool conditions. This year, we are seeing much cooler than normal conditions through the corn belt, even delaying the planting schedule. Cool La Nina years seem to favor more tornadoes, and we are now coming out of a persistent La Nina.<snip>

More tornadoes due to “global warming”, if such a thing happened, would be more tornadoes in Canada, where they don’t usually occur. NOT in Alabama.

It is well known that strong to violent tornado activity in the U.S. has decreased markedly since statistics began in the 1950s, which has also been a period of average warming. So, if anything, global warming causes FEWER tornado outbreaks…not more. In other words, more violent tornadoes would, if anything, be a sign of “global cooling”, not “global warming”.

Anyone who claims more tornadoes are caused by global warming is either misinformed, pandering, or delusional.<snip>

I note that the current outbreak is (a) later in the month of April and (b) further south than the 1974 outbreak (which I also lived through in Kentucky, though the nearest tornado then was somewhat further away -- to the north -- from home than the 6.7 miles closest approach of the North Alabama F5 tornado to my home in Huntsville). Also bespeaks more cooling yielding higher temperature gradients.

See my letter several months ago quoting Ringo from "The Last Centurion" on Meteorology 101 ( http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2010/Q2/mail621.html on Tuesday).

Spencer hasn't yet posted April average temperatures, I suspect because events have kept him from his office for the last week. They should be out in the next couple of days.

Jim

I recall more tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama when I was quite young -- the 1930's -- than when I was in High School -- 1940's. I had some interest in them in high school and they didn't happen often or close by (we had a motorcycle and would have gone down to have a look, not during one, but aftermath, but we never had a chance to do that). I was gone from the South after 1950.

The Maunder Minimum

2011-05-23T04:20:38-06:00

Maunder Minimum 1740--replay in 2020?

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/36268

"Usually, there’s about a ten-year lag between sunspot changes and their impact on earth’s temperatures. The sunspots began predicting lower temperatures about 2000, for instance, and the cooling trend began eight years later in 2007. Now the sunspot minimum that just ended is predicting quite serious cold, perhaps about 2020."

Charles Brumbelow

It's sure cold out in Los Angeles. We usually have a bright spring before June Gloom.

Another letter from England

2011-05-23T04:20:59-06:00

A few random notes

I suspect one reason the White House staff have been mishandling the OBL assassination story is that most of them are either unaware or have never bought into the policy that I mentioned in the last Letter from England. On the other hand, I sincerely hope our adversaries believe we are serious. "Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock." (Will Rogers) See also: <http://tinyurl.com/3esoxdk>

'Use of Weapons'--I enjoy Iain Banks a lot, but 'Excession' is my favourite of his novels.

How Europe does healthcare--a Guardian survey of some major systems--<http://tinyurl.com/69vznc3>

UK university graduates taking low-skill jobs: <http://tinyurl.com/69jlc9q> . "Would you like fries with that?"

Parochialism in the UK about international secondary qualifications: <http://tinyurl.com/6jrjn7y> . The UK Government and universities seem to be unable to see how UK education stacks up against other countries.

Universities and Science Minister defends Tory policies to allow people to buy places in university: <http://tinyurl.com/6a93zny> <http://tinyurl.com/6h7t82y> . 'Legacies' anyone?

Deadwood in the universities <http://tinyurl.com/5um6t55>

-- Harry Erwin

Letter from England

2011-05-23T04:20:37-06:00

Letter from England

The Archbishop of Canterbury is upset about the shooting down of an unarmed Osama bin Laden <http://tinyurl.com/64b429m>. This came up in a prayer meeting on Thursday--one of those in attendance was concerned that the members of the Seal team would feel guilt about shooting an unarmed man. I replied 'No, they won't', mentioned the long-standing, unwritten American policy that we would relentlessly kill any leader who ordered such an attack on us, and suggested that was one of the reasons the Cold War never became hot. That put a real damper on the discussion.

UK teeth are in bad shape: <http://tinyurl.com/6j3gaco>. One of those areas where healthcare is rationed.

The Scottish National Party wins in Scotland and Labour loses. <http://tinyurl.com/5sx5mq4> The Tories might be open to Scotland becoming independent.

Volume crime is usually not investigated. I think this case will be, though. <http://tinyurl.com/68jtxgc>

Recruiting students based on their ability to pay. <http://tinyurl.com/6ehbwnj> It has been like that for foreign students for years, leading to problems like this: <http://tinyurl.com/6b765l2> About 30% of the foreign masters theses I read are written in 'business english', which consists of English words written in some foreign grammar, usually Chinese or Hindu. My head hurts.

Greek debt in trouble: <http://tinyurl.com/3qvyb6c>.

-- Harry Erwin, PhD "If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

Helicopters and Seals

2011-05-23T04:20:28-06:00

There is mail

2011-05-23T04:20:27-06:00

There is mail

This afternoon is the Writers of the Future dinner and awards presentation...

2011-05-23T04:20:26-06:00

This afternoon is the Writers of the Future dinner and awards presentation at the Roosevelt Hotel, indeed in the very room in which the first Oscar ceremonies were held. I'll be getting into my black tie shortly. I'll try to get some pictures. I took the camera to the barbeque Friday night, but I didn't think to take any pictures. My head isn't really working very well this week. With luck I'll be back in form tomorrow.

.I am a bit under the weather and have taken the day off. The Writers of the Future...

2011-05-23T04:20:25-06:00

.I am a bit under the weather and have taken the day off. The Writers of the Future barbeque with the contest winners and judges was at the Roosevelt Hotel last night. We left early because Roberta thought I ought to, and she was right. I spent a good part of the dinner talking to Kristine Kathryn Rusch about what's going on in the business of writing. She has put a lot of the story up on her web site http://kriswrites.com/ and if you have any interest in the business of writing, you should not miss it. In particular the whole field of agents and agenting is changing, and it happened without my noticing it much because I have had about the best agent in the business for a very long time. Now the Hollywood style agents, many of whom who value their markets more than they do any client, are moving into the publishing business. In particular some of them are themselves becoming an odd hybrid of epublisher and agent.

Her advice, and mine, is that you must be very careful of what contracts you sign, and that includes 'agenting" contracts. When I first began in this business it was usual to have handshake agreements with agents. Later on there came about contracts between authors and agents -- Sprague and Catherine de Camp were strenuous advocates of such things. Now the contracts are usual, and a lot of new writers, thrilled to "get an agent" sign some really bad contracts.

Nowadays the subsidiary rights -- audio rights and epublishing rights -- are often worth more than the print rights for many books. The whole business has got very complicated.

I'll have a lot more on this another time when I'm feeling up to it.

There is mail

2011-05-23T04:20:24-06:00

There is mail

on another subject of importance

2011-05-23T04:20:23-06:00

on another subject of importance

"a single UAV could now, potentially, stop an armoured battle group dead in its tracks in a matter of seconds"

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/12/
navy_spits_out_6kg_fire_and_forget_missile/

Klein Article

2011-05-23T04:20:22-06:00

Klein Article

Hi Jerry

You might like to promote an article in the June Atlantic, "Scenes from the Class Struggle" <http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/
archive/2011/06/the-failure-of-american-schools/8497/> , by Joel Klein. The article describes his adventures dealing with "...feckless politicians, recalcitrant unions, mediocre teachers, and other enduring obstacles to school reform." Klein's credibility is high as he was chancellor of the New York City school system for eight years.

- Robert Griswold

I subscribe to Atlantic because every year or so it will have an article of this quality on a subject of importance. I heartily recommend this to everyone interested in education; and I consider the education crisis enormously important, the biggest danger to the Republic.

Excerpt:

During the first three-quarters of the 20th century, America developed an enormously successful middle class, first by making high school universal, and then, after the Second World War, by making college much more available, through the GI Bill and other scholarship programs. As a result, our educational attainment kept pace with our strong technological advancement. But that’s changed markedly since 1980, and now our technological progress is advancing more rapidly than our educational attainment. From 1960 to 1980, our supply of college graduates increased at almost 4 percent a year; since then, the increase has been about half as fast. The net effect is that we’re rapidly moving toward two Americas--a wealthy elite, and an increasingly large underclass that lacks the skills to succeed.

This division tears at the very fabric of our society. Nevertheless, there’s little national urgency to fix its underlying causes. Unlike a bad economy, poor educational achievement creeps up on us. Right now, if you were running for office, would you be more concerned with unemployment or education? Also, unlike terrorism, an educational crisis has a different impact on the powerful than it does on most of society. Their children, who are in private schools or elite public schools, receive a decent education, so it’s hard to get them fully engaged in the broader national debate. Plus, unlike in health care, for example, where we perceive the quality of care to be good and worry instead about controlling costs and covering the uninsured, in education, despite massive increases in expenditure, we don’t see improved results. That leads too many people to suspect that poverty is destiny, that schools can make only a small difference, and that therefore we’re unable to fix this problem, regardless of its seriousness. So why try?

Of course many think that the only problem is money. But that was what the teachers said back in 1983 when the Commission concluded that "If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States we would rightly consider it an act of war." More money was paid. The schools continued to deteriorate. Money does not fix the problem and more money will not fix the problem.

If that last paragraph is ambiguous...

2011-05-23T04:20:21-06:00

If that last paragraph is ambiguous, what I meant is that the first thing that has to be done is to win the next election. This is not the time to "stand up for principle" and select a candidate on ideological grounds. It is important that someone run who can win. Of course one can go too far in sacrificing principle for electibility.

Leaving it to the States

2011-05-23T04:20:20-06:00

Leaving it to the States

The nomination dances have begun.

It's pretty well inevitable that the Democratic candidate for President will be President Obama. Prior to the Civil War there were several sitting Presidents who didn't get nominated for reelection but in those days there were no primary elections. Lyndon Johnson probably could have fought his way to the 1968 nomination for a second full term, but the growing unpopularity of the Viet Nam War and other dissent took the fire out of his belly and he decided to call it quits. That's extremely unlikely in the case of Barrack Obama, and it's about the only way he wouldn't be the Democratic nominee. We can call that side of the ticket pretty well decided.

On the Republican side it's all chaos.. There are serious candidates, candidates are clearly not serious, and candidates who don't look very serious but might be. There is no one standout candidate. It will be interesting to watch the dance.

One of the serious candidates is Newt Gingrich. Newt is an old friend. He has generally sound political principles. When I was active in national politics he was one of the few national politicians reliably in favor of investment high technology. He was sound in both principle and practice in the scary times of the Cold War, and a reliable if sensibly critical supporter of Ronald Reagan at a time when the outcome of the Seventy Years War was not predictable. Those were scary times: 26,000 warheads aimed at the United States, under the control of a changing parade of masters. Newt was able to work with Reagan. After Bush I turned out every Reagan supporter in the White House and Newt was Minority Whip, Newt was a sound and reliable source of conservative criticism: some readers may recall his House speeches in those times, and how he carefully built the coalition that led to the 1994 House majority after Bush l lost the White House to Clinton in 1992.

Although there is a great deal of nonsense about his involvement in Global Warming, his position on that is pretty close to mine: we don't know. For a good statement of his position, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9mTRDhWTJM It's very close to what I have been saying since the 1970's when I met Newt. Our policies ought to be governed by prudence, and it is an act of hubris to pretend that we really "know the science." We do not know. Newt has many sources in the sane science community, and not he not only listens, he solicits opinions. I first met him after he read A Step Farther Out and took the trouble to get my telephone number fr0m my editor and called me to discuss it. Newt Gingrich has been a principled conservative with a sense of history for a very long time.

Another serious candidate is Mitt Romney, who is being bashed repeatedly over his adopting a state health care plan for Massachusetts that is similar in parts -- but not details -- to the Obama health care plan. His defense is that he thought it was a good idea for the state of Massachusetts at the time, but he is opposed to Obama's national health care plan. Lost in this debate is an important principle: Federalism. This is how things are supposed to work in these United States. Leaving matters like this to the states -- particularly now that the Seventy Years War with the Soviet Union is ended -- is precisely how things are supposed to work. I have never met Mitt Romney, and I haven't really looked at his principles in any great detail, but I do note that he won governorship in Mass.

Note that I am not endorsing anyone here. I am not rejecting anyone here. I am not deliberately overlooking anyone here. Over time I will have something to say about other candidates as they make their announcements. These are my observations, and there will be more.

The goal for the next election is to change the course the Republic has taken. The Republic is headed for the rocks; that has to be stopped. Once we are not sunk we can look at our destination.

Friday the Thirteenth Falls on Friday

2011-05-23T04:20:19-06:00

Friday the Thirteenth Falls on Friday

Rush Limbaugh suggests that the soon to be laid off workers at the National...

2011-05-23T04:20:18-06:00

Rush Limbaugh suggests that the soon to be laid off workers at the National Zoo could have their jobs saved if they were employed to take care of the alligators in the new moat that will supplement the southern border fence...

There is mail.

The San Diego DA continues to argue sociological and political reasons for...

2011-05-23T04:20:17-06:00

The San Diego DA continues to argue sociological and political reasons for reversing the commutation of Esteban Nunez's sentence. This diminishes the people's faith in government. It undercuts the plea bargain made by the prosecution and defense and agreed to by the judge. It was unjust, a political favor, and all around a bad idea. So far as I know every bit of that is true, but that does not change the principle. We rightly distrust arbitrary power, and generally we do not grant arbitrary power to do harm. The legislature cannot convict an individual by bill of attainder, nor can the President simply order someone to the Tower (or the DC jail, or the Fort McNair Stockade, or the brig on some warship anchored in the Potomac) by Executive Order. All that was put into the Constitution and rightly so. And yet, after considerable debate, the executive power of clemency was given the President (and in nearly all cases to state Governors) as a personal and arbitrary power with no requirement for review, advice, or consent from any other body.

Injustice consists of treat equal matters unequally, or unequal matters equally. Arbitrary power always creates the opportunity for injustice even as it creates the opportunity for the executive to end an injustice. There is never perfection in human institutions.

There are many far more dangerous imperfections in our constitutions. both State and Federal, than the clemency power.

Capturing/Killing OBL

2011-05-23T04:20:16-06:00

Capturing/Killing OBL

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I read the discussion on Chaos Manor on the advisability of capturing or killing Osama Bin Laden, and I think the entire discussion is missing one crucial point:

-- What the killing of OBL tells us, more than anything, is that our justice system is so broken it cannot be trusted to correctly try and jail a man guilt of even the most heinous crimes. The government itself has tacitly conceded this by issuing kill orders when capture should be advisable.

If this had happened in the 1940s, OBL would have been brought back alive and interrogated as rigorously as necessarily. When we had everything we wanted from him, he'd have gone from there to a military commission and from there to a gallows.

The reason we don't do this is because the justice system cannot be trusted to convict even criminals who are obviously guilty of monstrous crimes.

Thus, the killing of OBL is a symptom of a disease -- a disease we must cure if we want to remain a nation under the rule of law. As it is, the laws are so broken our government must go outside the law entirely to achieve it's objectives. And that does not bode well for the rule of law.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

A disturbing thought. My first thought was, no, things are not that broken here, but on reflection I wonder. Certainly our judicial system produces weird results, and recent appointments to the Supreme Court provide few reasons to expect improvement.

We have sown the wind for decades. I suppose I ought not be surprised when we begin to reap.

There is mail.

2011-05-23T04:20:15-06:00

There is mail.

Best Sci-fi film never made

2011-05-23T04:20:14-06:00

Best Sci-fi film never made

Mote in Gods Eye came in second.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/11/sci_fi_poll/

I've never heard of the winner.

Don Miller

We preen.

The big news in California is that the San Diego District Attorney is bringing...

2011-05-23T04:20:13-06:00

The big news in California is that the San Diego District Attorney is bringing suit to overturn former Governor Schwarzenegger's commutation of the plea-bargain sentence of 16 years given to Esteban Nunez, son of the former California Assembly Speaker Fabio Nunez.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/
news/2011/may/11/dumanis-sues-
nullify-commutation-nunezs-sentence/

The facts here are not much in dispute. Nunez and companions were denied admission to a party at San Diego State University, and returned with knives to attack those who had denied them entrance. One boy was killed, and others were wounded in the resulting fight. The original charge was murder. Nunez and his companions were convicted of voluntary manslaughter, Nunez pleading guilty. On essentially his last day in office Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger commuted the sentence to 7 years. His explanation was that Nunez had not committed the actual murder. At another time he added that he knew the young man. Schwarzenegger and Fabio Nunez are friends, and Schwarzenegger has remarked that of course one helps one's friends.

The commutation was almost universally condemned in California, with few -- I know of none -- public figures approving of the Governor's act. Commentators said this was literally a favor for a friend, that it was unjust, and a parody of the executive clemency power.

The suit by the San Diego DA seeks to overturn the commutation and restore the original sentence on the grounds that a California initiative known as Marsy's Law requires notification of the victims or victims' families whenever any convict applies for clemency. It also requires notification of relevant judges and public prosecutorial officials. The law does not require that the Governor seek the approval of any of these people; merely that they be notified.

Most commentators are happy about this. Some are thrilled. The common comment is that the commutation ought to be overturned with the original sentence restored. This is simple justice.

On the face of it this is a simple enough matter, but I don't find it so. The purpose of executive clemency is part of the scheme of separation of powers; it is a final exception to the rule of police, prosecutors, judges, and public bureaucracies. The power has always been personal and discretionary, and many executives have used it in ways that some find unattractive, or even corrupt. Many Presidents and Governors have been accused of improper use of the power of clemency. That is an almost inevitable consequence of a grant of discretionary clemency. Even so, few attempts to constrain or limit executive clemency have been successful, and for good reason: the fear that a worse injustice will result from attempts to impose limits or require some kind of consultation with political or judicial or bureaucratic entities. It is not a good day for justice when a flagrant offender gets off more lightly than the public believes proper; but it is a far worse day for justice when an unjust sentence is imposed and there is nothing that can be done about it.

I've no brief for young Nunez, but I have a strong belief that tampering with executive clemency is a very bad idea. It is absolute and discretionary, and thus subject to nearly inevitable abuse. Executive clemency cannot undue all injustices nor will it ever be applied equally; but it is a necessary safety valve. Perhaps -- almost certainly -- the Governor was wrong to do this; but it was within his power, and the courts have no business being involved. If the prosecutor can find evidence of improper action on the Governor's part, let him be charged; but that will still not overturn his act of clemency, nor should it. Adding bureaucratic layers to clemency is a bad idea.

The day has been eaten with medical appointments and recovering Roberta's...

2011-05-23T04:20:12-06:00

The day has been eaten with medical appointments and recovering Roberta's car from the shop. I am in theory recovering from what has laid me low for the past weeks, but I fear my brain isn't working all that well. I am almost ashamed to remind you that this is KUSC pledge week, meaning that it is time to remind you to subscribe or renew your subscription (and my thanks to those who have just done so).

UH-60s

2011-05-23T04:20:11-06:00

UH-60s

"Meanwhile, the very heavily laden helicopter -- carrying about 40 troops including the flight crew of the destroyed helicopter, plus one dead body, plus an unknown amount of loot. From Wikipedia on the Black Hawk:

Capacity: 2,640 lb of cargo internally, including 14 troops or 6 stretchers, or 8,000 lb (UH-60A) or 9,000 lb (UH-60L) of cargo externally"

That many people in 2 helos???? Wouldn't happen. While the climate data is temperate at this time of year and well within the operation envelope for helos; Abbottabad is about 4100 ft above sea level - an presumably the helos would have to go well above that to climb some of the ridges on the track to/from Afghanistan. Thus the overall payload per bird would be have to be less. Additionally, I think 40 people as a strike force for this type of operation is asking for trouble; people just start getting in the way (even well trained people) - more likely that number includes ground operatives (probably less than 20); flight crew (4 per bird); and command cell (the rest of the cats and dogs who glom on to an operation for the prestige/awards). When planning for heliborne operations, there is always planning for 'shrinkage'. The number that goes out is usually not the number that comes back. MINIMUM to do this job is 2 birds, but assumes NOTHING goes wrong. A 70% probability to get all the 'shooters' back is 3 birds. To get to the 95% solution you move to 4 birds (mirror teams on 2 birds each - and capacity to extract everyone if any helo(s) go down) - this would also give you the capability to retrieve bodies (alive or dead) as necessary. Assuming max shooters and 4 helos - we get to 36 people quickly; with probably 2 communications/commander liaison on the helos as well - 38 total in country on the assault (I'd still factor in another 5-8 in the command cell who'll claim 'participation.').

I'd also think this scenario points to cooperation from the Paki's. If the assault force is carrying security to protect from counter-operations from Pakistani military and/or police - you start getting into a battalion sized operation quickly. At the very least a reinforced company - in which planning means you expect lose a lot of people dead and captured to insure the 'package' gets out. A heliborne extraction, under fire, is a disaster (it's not waiting to happen - it will happen).

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

I suspect I wasn't as clear as I might have been. I took all my numbers from what was reported to us, and it was obvious that the story couldn't have been true as reported. And since it is now admitted that the compound was under observation for months by CIA operatives in a "safe house", but there is no account or even mention of their involvement, it becomes even more obvious that what we have been told is not true, whether or not the people telling us these stories believe it or not.

This operation wasn't possible without some Pakistani involvement, although the probability that Pakistan can or will admit that is quite low. My familiarity with this kind of operation is limited largely to analysis, theory and war games prior to 1972, and many years later a long discussion of the Iran operation with Colonel Beckwith back when we were discussing my writing the Delta Force book. (I do wish I had done that book; at the time there were formidable obstacles. Ah well.) I defer to your command experience in these matters. Having said that I am generally in agreement that 40 is too many, given that the house was under observation for months. Perhaps an entry team of 8 shooters, with another team of a dozen for perimeter security. The perimeter team also includes the communications and command cell. Finally a reserve of 10 whose main job is to hang on while everyone else bugs out. And possibly a very smooth talking liaison guy with a Platinum American Express Card and some Kruger Rands whose job is to make nice with the local authorities...

Eventually the whole story will come out, but unfortunately it will trickle, with many "eye witness" accounts by people who were not actually involved, and many more by "command cell participants". There won't be confrontations, just contradictions. It has been that way for a few thousand years...

They're rioting in Los Angeles. Well...

2011-05-23T04:20:10-06:00

They're rioting in Los Angeles. Well, not rioting, but a bunch of students have been whipped into a frenzy to "save their school." The school is about the worst in the district. Union contracts don't let the district just fire the incompetent teachers. The result is that the teachers are sending the pupils into the streets to save their jobs. The taxpayers get to foot the bill. I have not heard where the civics teachers stand on this matter. The students are blocking traffic and sitting in the streets.

The school in question had 5% test proficient in math last year. About 25% tested as proficient in English.

One wonders: wouldn't it be better to "save" this school by transferring all the unfirable lousy teachers in Los Angeles to it. Save the place that way. It would improve all the other schools, and it's unlikely to make that one worse. Not much could.

You may take it as a general rule: get the worst 10% of the teachers out of a school, distributing their students to the remaining teachers, and you will improve the school, probably very dramatically. So designate one awful school as the place to send all the worst teachers. It won't hurt that school much, because not much can. It complies with the silly laws and rules that make it impossible to fire bad, incompetent, malicious, and generally unsatisfactory teachers, and it will do some good for the other schools. Admittedly it's a silly way to improve a school system, but it may well be the only possible way, since there appears to be no way to change the rules.

===

Up in Sacramento some teachers are trying to occupy the capitol building.

All of this assumes that the purpose of the schools is to be concerned about the rights of teachers, union contracts, pensions, pay (second highest in the country) and other entitlement matters, not with any actual performance or education. The law doesn't require that anyone be educated, but it is very detailed about who gets paid, and how much. Similarly the teacher contracts don't require that anyone learn anything, but they are very explicit on how hard the teachers must work. One of the current demands is that teachers receive more paid time off for union activities which will count as time in grade. Another is that the state raise taxes since it can't pay the current rates. There does not seem to be any movement to cut salaries and benefits in order to avoid layoffs when the state runs out of money. Layoffs will of course be by seniority, not by merit.

The purpose of the school system is to pay teachers and administrators, both while they work and after they retire. The teachers are inviting the public to join them in their demand for higher taxes. The taxpayers are invited to come out and demand that their taxes be raised.

For platinum subscription:

2011-05-23T04:20:09-06:00

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

Patron Subscription:

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.

Pakis allowed UBL hit

2011-05-23T04:20:08-06:00

SUBJ: Pakis allowed UBL hit

Your conclusions confirmed, Jerry. Actually I suspect Paki involvement goes well beyond this, behind the scenes.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/
2011/may/09/osama-bin-laden-us-pakistan-deal

The money quote: "Under its terms, Pakistan would allow US forces to conduct a unilateral raid inside Pakistan in search of Bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the al-Qaida No3. Afterwards, both sides agreed, Pakistan would vociferously protest the incursion."

Cordially, John

P.S. "Coming Soon To A Bahnhoff Near You" As you have doubtless noticed, the MS press is now festooned with articles of the Gomer Gestapo being poised to take over US train stations. Don't you just feel safer already?

John

Well, it's hardly astonishing. Pakistani had to have cooperated in some ways; the operation was impossible without at least some leashing of the local cops. When people start assaulting houses in Beverly Hills, you expect the Beverly Hills PD to respond even if the US government is doing the assaulting. The story I have heard is that Pakistani police were telling people in the neighborhood to turn off their lights and stay indoors. There certainly was no fire fight with the local police.

There was a bit of mail last night.

2011-05-23T04:20:07-06:00

There was a bit of mail last night.

There is mail today

California public school teachers are marching about Sacramento to insist...

2011-05-23T04:20:06-06:00

California public school teachers are marching about Sacramento to insist on raising taxes since they don't want any cut in their pay. California teachers are the second highest paid in the country according to the radio (New York is the highest) and indeed, if they had a pay cut of 10% they would still be the second highest paid in the land. Alas, while we once had one of the best public education systems in the land, that is no more. There are some good schools, but the average isn't so very good. The problem comes from failing to think about the purpose of public education.

The current way of thinking is as a right, and about equality, and about entitlements.

What isn't examined is why taxpayers ought to want to pay for public education: is there any benefit to those who pay taxes to finance this entitlement? If so, how do we assure that this beneficial goal will be met?

How many helicopters?

2011-05-23T04:20:05-06:00

Subj: How many helicopters?

The version I read -- probably in the WSJ but perhaps in _National Review Online_ -- said there were four helicopters in the operation, of which two landed in the assault.

Presumably the people who arrived in the disabled helicopter departed aboard the two helicopters that were present but had not landed in the assault.

This is rather more plausible than stuffing forty people into one BlackHawk.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

That certainly sounds more plausible in one way, but it also means a larger operation, with more assets. Four black helicopters from the Afghan border to Abbottabad, and no one noticed. Four come into the neighborhood and no one calls the cops. Well, that's more plausible in Pakistani than California, I suppose.

There is also the possibility that some of the agents already in place in Abbottabad took part in the raid; they may have gone out with the raiders, or made their way some other way. I suspect that someone was left behind to turn the mess over to the Pakistani authorities, who then vanished. I note that Pakistan is now 'retaliating' by outing some CIA officers who were perhaps due to be withdrawn anyway. Perhaps one of those greeted the local Chief of Police when the Pakistani came to the compound after all the excitement was done.

Since Pakistan is a very leaky outfit, but the US presumably made it clear to all three elements of Pakistan control -- the military, the government, and the ISI -- that bin Laden on their soil was a "bad", not a good. It would not have taken much warning to give bin Laden a chance to get away. Presumably he had some alternate safe house somewhere. Presumably the US had a watch on the house. All presumption, of course. I could easily write an adventure story about all this, and many will do that, but there are a lot of screwy details.

And my brain isn't working very well this week.

My thanks to all who have recently subscribed or renewed. This is KUSC pledge week, which means that it's the Spring Chaos Manor Pledge Drive, but I sort of hate to do that since I haven't had a great deal to contribute for the past week or so. I seem to be in the grip of something awful. I like to think I'm worth the money for the pledges and subscriptions and renewals, and I will be, presently; for the moment here we are.

There's a lot going on worth comment. I'm dancing as fast as I can...

The biggest question is...

2011-05-23T04:20:04-06:00

The biggest question is, how was something this big kept secret? And just what secrets were kept? By whom, and from whom? Did Panetta keep the operation secret from the President until it was launched? Did the Pakistani government keep secrets from the Pakistani ISI? There are three entities in Pakistan: the government, the military, and the ISI. They have overlapping but not identical interests, and overlapping but very different personnel. They keep secrets from each other. The ISI created the Taliban, largely in reaction to the US abandonment of interest in the area following the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. Once the Russians were out, the US wasn't interested in Afghanistan. Pakistan lives next door.

More details emerge. There is ambiguity in the number of troops engaged. There are many questions about just how many CIA assets were already in place in the general neighborhood.

The one thing we may be sure of is that the official story will leave Pakistan looking perhaps stupid but not in complicity with bin Laden. We may, however, use logic to try to infer just what did happen.

I'm not feeling very good, and I'm going to go have lunch while I contemplate all this.

Improving Schools

2011-05-23T04:20:02-06:00

The official story

2011-05-23T04:20:03-06:00

We now know the official story:

Months ago (in August, 2010) we discovered that Osama bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad, a military town in the foothill region northeast of Islamabad. It took months to become certain of this, and all during that time the secret that we were interested in the region was meticulously kept from most of the White House Staff, the Congress, the CIA except for those who needed to know and there were few of those, the Director of National Intelligence (who seems to have been completely out of the story, and whose job and staff seem increasingly less useful), most of the US military, most of the State Department, and everyone in the Middle East.

The government of Pakistan, meanwhile, is convinced that bin Laden is hiding in the caves in the tribal areas, or has gone to earth somewhere else, but it has no suspicion that he is in hiding in their military retirement city. They have none of the clues that led the US to Abbottabad. The CIA investigates -- it is certainly reasonable to assume that at least a couple of CIA tourist teams will take their honeymoon vacations in scenic Abbottabad -- but that draws no attention from Pakistani authorities. Bounty hunters are looking for the biggest bounty ever, but none are drawn to Abbottabad. No one drops any hints to bounty hunters. The compound remains not only safe, but pretty well left alone by the Pakistani security apparatus while the CIA seeks clues to resolve the ambiguities.

The President was decisive from the beginning. He ordered mission plans to be made for the contingency that this was, in fact, Public Enemy Number One. Although the ambiguity of just who was hiding in that compound was never resolved to a certainty, eventually there was enough resolution to warrant an armed expedition from a US base in Afghanistan fairly deep into the sovereign territory of Pakistan. This was done without either the knowledge or consent of the government of Pakistan.

Two stealth helicopters containing about 40 armed warriors crossed from Afghanistan into Abbottabad. Cruising in the dead of night they came into the city and settled in over a walled compound a couple of miles from the Pakistani Military Academy in a city in which many of the Pakistani flag officers live in retirement. One helicopter crashes, but without casualties. The troops assault the compound. At some point shots are fired. There were initial reports of a fire fight, but those turn out to be untrue, probably a misinterpretation of the "shots fired" report. For forty minutes more or less the assault continues. No one from outside interferes. There is no intervention by the Pakistani police, who probably possess helicopters and certainly possess squad cars. There is no intervention by the Pakistani armed forces including whatever security forces protect the military academy. There is no intervention from neighbors. The compound under attack is said to be unusual in that it had neither telephone nor Internet connections, from which we can infer that at least some and probably most of the houses in the neighborhood had both.

After forty minutes on the ground the troops, carrying a body and all the collectible information they could gather board the remaining flightworthy helicopter. This flies unopposed and unmolested back to a US base in Afghanistan, carrying some 40 men. At some point in this operation the Pakistani government is informed that the US has invaded their sovereign territory, and that this is an official US operation, please do not interfere. The Pakistani government is astonished, but stands down; no interceptors are sent, no inspections from air or ground are made. Pakistani investigators arrive at the compound, to find that all US operatives have left. There are some people in the compound. Some are alive. Some are dead. Some have been, and perhaps remain, handcuffed. There is no one in charge, no US operatives to explain the situation. The former compound inhabitants are taken into custody and removed to a Pakistani military installation.

The next morning the situation in the neighborhood returns to something like normal. New media are not allowed in the compound, at least not at first, but they can approach its walls. Local inhabitants come out in curiosity. Food vendors appear. There doesn't seem to be any great excitement. It is not clear which Pakistani organizations have come to take charge of the investigation. Certainly none of the operatives involved in the assault are in Pakistani custody.

Meanwhile, the very heavily laden helicopter -- carrying about 40 troops including the flight crew of the destroyed helicopter, plus one dead body, plus an unknown amount of loot. From Wikipedia on the Black Hawk:

Capacity: 2,640 lb of cargo internally, including 14 troops or 6 stretchers, or 8,000 lb (UH-60A) or 9,000 lb (UH-60L) of cargo externally

We have reports of 40 assault troops. Call it 35 including the flight crew of the downed copter. Add a dead body. That makes 36, at an average of, say, 190 pounds is 3240 pounds without equipment and a very crowded machine. The combat radius under normal load is said to be 368 miles, and the Afghani border is under 150 miles away so even fully loaded that's not a problem. It's not going to be a comfortable trip, and there's sure not a lot of room in there, but it's possible. By this time the Pakistani authorities have been told this is happening and ordered not to interfere, and for once everyone gets the word, and nothing happens.

This is the official story plus reasonable inferences. You can believe as much of this as you want to.