Chaos Manor Musings

Education Union blocks Teacher Merit Grants from Gates

2009-11-20T15:50:03-06:00

Union blocks teacher bonuses

Hi Jerry,

I thought you might be interested in this story about how the teachers union in Boston is blocking bonus money from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.

- Al

Union blocks teacher bonuses

By Edward Mason | Wednesday, November 18, 2009 Local Coverage <http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/>

Grinchlike union bosses are blocking at least 200 of Boston’s best teachers from pocketing bonuses for their classroom heroics in a puzzling move that gets a failing grade from education experts.

The Boston Teachers Union staunchly opposes a performance bonus plan for top teachers - launched at the John D. O’Bryant School in 2008 and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates and Exxon Mobil foundations - insisting the dough be divvied up among all of a school’s teachers, good and bad.

“It’s insanity,” said Jim Stergios, executive director of the nonpartisan Pioneer Institute. “They’re less concerned about promoting the interest of individual members than maintaining control over their members.”

The incentive program pays Advanced Placement teachers $100 bonuses for each student who passes the test, and up to $3,000 a year for meeting other goals. Students also can also receive $100 for passing.

“(The union) is standing in the way of innovation,” school Superintendent Carol R. Johnson told the Herald. “I think we have to realize we can’t do business as usual. . . . We have to be willing to make changes and give kids the opportunities they need.”

The program also pays for after-school study sessions for AP classes, which can count toward college credit and which some universities use to evaluate applicants.

The incentive program - part of a series of innovations Boston Public Schools wants to roll out - includes drawing outside money to the city’s cash-strapped schools to boost academic performance.

Union head Richard Stutman bristled at criticism he doesn’t have his members’ interest at heart. “We’re not taking money away from teachers,” Stutman claimed.

He also objected to the suggestions his union is a foe of school reform, insisting he backs the incentive program - so long as the bonus goes to all teachers, not just AP instructors.

“There’s no one solely responsible for the development of these students,” Stutman said. “They should all share in the money.”

But by thwarting performance bonuses, the union is hurting students, argued Morton Orlov, president of the Massachusetts Math and Science Initiative at MassINSIGHT, the business-backed group that administers the bonuses.

Orlov said the 10 state schools that accept the bonuses saw a 39 percent increase in students who passed the AP exam.

“You can think of this as smart money,” Orlov said.

Ligia Noriega, headmaster at the Excel High in South Boston, wants the bonus program at her school.

“These incentives push people to work a little bit harder,” Noriega said. “We have to start thinking outside the box.”

Article URL: <http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view.bg?articleid=1212771>

The Iron Law in action. Predictable, of course.

Friday Mail Roundup 4

2009-11-20T15:10:04-06:00

Teachers union blocks Gates Foundation grants to teachers . See mail. Iron...

2009-11-20T16:20:02-06:00

Teachers union blocks Gates Foundation grants to teachers. See mail. Iron Law in action. I can't make this stuff up.

Pournelle mentioned in CRU's hacked e-mails

2009-11-20T15:10:03-06:00

Pournelle mentioned in CRU's hacked e-mails

Alleged CRU Emails - 1109021312.txt

The below is one of a series of alleged emails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, released on 20 November 2009.

From: Phil Jones To: mann@virginia.edu Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA Date: Mon Feb 21 16:28:32 2005 Cc: "raymond s. bradley" , "Malcolm Hughes"

Mike, Ray and Malcolm,

The skeptics seem to be building up a head of steam here ! Maybe we can use

this to our advantage to get the series updated !

Odd idea to update the proxies with satellite estimates of the lower troposphere

rather than surface data !. Odder still that they don't realise that Moberg et al used the

Jones and Moberg updated series !

Francis Zwiers is till onside. He said that PC1s produce hockey sticks. He stressed

that the late 20th century is the warmest of the millennium, but Regaldo didn't bother

with that. Also ignored Francis' comment about all the other series looking similar

to MBH.

The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick.

Leave it to you to delete as appropriate !

Cheers

Phil

PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data.

Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !

X-Sender: f023@pop.uea.ac.uk

X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.0.6

Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:40:05 +0000

To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk

From: Keith Briffa

Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO

DISCLOSE SECRET DATA

Subject: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA

Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:02:37 -0000

X-MS-Has-Attach:

X-MS-TNEF-Correlator:

Thread-Topic: pressure grows on climate modellers to relase secret data

Thread-Index: AcUXiV64e/f3Ii8uQSa0X88pndSQgQAl2O1w

From: "Peiser, Benny"

To: "cambridge-conference"

X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information

X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean

CCNet 22/2005 - 21 February 2005

PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA

--------------------------------------------------------------------

This should have produced a healthy scientific debate. Instead, Mr. Mann tried

to shut down debate by refusing to disclose the mathematical algorithm by which

he arrived at his conclusions. All the same, Mr. Mann was forced to publish a

retraction of some of his initial data, and doubts about his statistical methods

have since grown.

--The Wall Street Journal, 18 February 2005

But maybe we are in that much trouble. The WSJ highlights what Regaldo and McIntyre

says is Mann's resistance or outright refusal to provide to inquiring minds his

data, all details of his statistical analysis, and his code. So this is what I

say to Dr. Mann and others expressing deep concern over peer review: give up your

data, methods and code freely and with a smile on your face.

--Kevin Vranes, Science Policy, 18 February 2005

Mann's work doesn't meet that definition [of science], and those who use Mann's

curve in their arguments are not making a scientific argument. One of Pournelle's

Laws states "You can prove anything if you can make up your data." I will now add

another Pournelle's Law: "You can prove anything if you can keep your algorithms

secret."

--Jerry Pournelle, 18 February 2005

The time has come to question the IPCC's status as the near-monopoly source of

information and advice for its member governments. It is probably futile to propose

reform of the present IPCC process. Like most bureaucracies, it has too much momentum

and its institutional interests are too strong for anyone realistically to suppose

that it can assimilate more diverse points of view, even if more scientists and

economists were keen to join up. The rectitude and credibility of the IPCC could be

best improved not through reform, but through competition.

--Steven F. Hayward, The American Enterprise Institute, 15 February 2005 <snip>

I have no idea of the significance of this.

Buchanan: 'Is it possible we have done an injustice to this man by keeping...

2009-11-20T15:00:09-06:00

Buchanan: 'Is it possible we have done an injustice to this man by keeping him locked up all these years without trial? For that is what this trial implies – that he may not be guilty.'

<http://www.wnd.com/
index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=116268>

- Roland Dobbins

Holden made it clear that even if he were found innocent he would not be let go. That is hardly a monument to our liberty. Give him a fair trial, then hang him. Maybe shot while attempting to escape would be better?

More on education

2009-11-20T15:00:12-06:00

a subscriber responds to your assertions about public education

Dear Jerry -

I would not agree with your assertion that we are getting worse results in public education, despite the increased costs.

I would ask whether the children given to the teachers have anywhere near the same set of shared experiences before they ever set foot inside of a classroom. With the degradation of the family (working moms, divorce, parental recreational drugs, lack of punishment, etc.), most students are at a severe disadvantage before teachers and administrators do their thing. Also, many children acquire knowledge through siblings, and multiple-child families (say, three children or more) are becoming rare. I'd also look at decreased social interaction (fear-inducing media, fewer church/civic events) and families who don't demand English from their children.

It may be true that the progress is the same, but the starting line was moved way back; as a result, it looks like a decline. Incompetent teachers and administrators (and let's not forget school boards) certainly don't help the situation, but it's not the root of the problem. For all we know, teachers are doing better than the teachers of old, if one grades them on technique, preparation, knowledge of teaching styles to fit kids who learn differently, inclusion of mainstreamed handicapped or unruly children, etc. Little consolation, I'd agree.

The problem is, and always will be, the parents. I think we both know why this simple truth is not uttered. I especially blame those who think their parents were so mean to them, and now (that they know better) attempt a "kinder, gentler" approach. You know, for the child's self-esteem. How much self-esteem does a child retain when they learn life's lessons later on in life, to even greater embarrassment? Who's self esteem are these wishy-washy parents protecting, the child's or their own?

withhold name please

The purpose of the education system ought to be to take those who can be educated and teach them. If the reason they can't be educated is that they are poor protoplasm, or have bad parents, or bad families, or they are poor, then we may have both a moral obligation and financial incentive to try to remedy that, but it doesn't make it less important to do what you can.

When a paratrooper jumps out of an airplane and sees it is a bad landing area, the smartest thing he could do is climb back into the airplane and find another place. That doesn't work well as a strategy. We have the schools and teachers and children we have; what shall we do? I would argue that subsidiarity and transparency are about the only means we have to change the system.

No child left behind took effort dedicated to the top half of the class and applied it to raising the scores of the lower half. This may be fair but it is not productive.

The Gates F0undation has found that exceptional teachers can overcome all kinds of difficulties, including parenting, being poor, and so forth: I call to your attention Jaime Escalante as an example we knew of long before the Gates Foundation. But teachers unions do not want us to discover and encourage great teachers, and they adamantly oppose merit pay, elimination of the worst teachers, and so forth. So long as we use a national command system to control education, or even statewide, this will continue. It is the Iron Law in spades with big casino.

And we are certainly getting worse results. My country school (4 through 8 ) in Capleville, Tennessee during World War 2 had 4 classrooms; two grades per class, about 25-30 pupils per grade. These were local farmer kids. I was the anomaly (and when I got on the Whiz Kids radio program very much so). But we studied many things. Everyone read Scott's Lady of the Lake, as an example. We got the basics of education, yes, some by rote, but we knew stuff when we came out of there. Yes, I knew more because I read damned near everything in the library and besides I had the Encyclopedia at home, but we learned. Including self discipline, which I desperately needed to learn.

But I've said all that before. It's astounding how much the average kid can learn if he knows he is expected to. Of course ALL the kids in our school could read. Even the dummies could read the history book. But I have said all that before too.

We have to work with what we have, or the education system is pointless.

The latest Nigerian

2009-11-20T15:00:11-06:00

: Nigerian

Jerry,

Apparently the latest version of the Nigerian Email (I didn't open to find out more):

E-mail subject (paraphrased - caps in original):
FBI NOTIFICATION - THIS IS THE FBI AND WE WILL ARREST YOU UNLESS

I didn't open it either. I keep a sterile machine for doing that, but I haven't had time to fire it up lately.

What is worse than organlegging?

2009-11-20T15:00:10-06:00

What's worse than organlegging?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/20/peru-gang-killing-human-fat

Gang 'killed victims to extract their fat'

Peruvian police arrest suspects who allegedly drained their victims and sold liquid as an anti-wrinkle treatment <snip>Three suspects have confessed to killing five people for their fat, said Colonel Jorge Mejia, chief of Peru <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/peru> 's anti-kidnapping police, but the number of victims was believed to be much higher and to date back decades. Two of the suspects were arrested at a bus station in the capital, Lima, carrying bottles of liquid fat which they claimed were worth up to �36,000 a gallon. <snip>

Perhaps they can be farmers and breed people for the purpose? Of course none of this can happen in these enlightened times. Certainly not anywhere in North America.

Napoleon Bonaparte's saying and the Iron Law

2009-11-20T15:00:08-06:00

Dobbins' Assertion and Bonaparte's Axiom reconciled by Pournelle's Iron Law?

In answer to Roland Dobbins' assertion that the swine flu kerfuffle is, "...a grossly-exaggerated near-hoax genned up by health bureaucrats who're seeking larger shares of their respective budgets and greater powers over the citizenry," you replied,

"Well now, I wouldn't say that... Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. Napoleon Bonaparte"

To which I counter:

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureacracy. It seems to me that your own Iron Law could easily encompass both Roland Dobbins' assertion and your own citation of Napoleon's Axiom. Short-sighted (indeed, stupid and incompetent, no matter how intelligent they may be) "bureaucraps" (my own formulation for the worst of "type 2" bureaucrats noted in Pournelle's Iron Law) seeking to expand their fiefdoms' power and finances are likely to do any number of things that sober reflection would reveal as stupid and incompetent.

David W Needham
http://thirdworldcounty.us

Neuroscience

2009-11-20T15:00:06-06:00

: health?

This was on the BBC World News Thursday:

"A drug that could prolong the lives of patients with advanced liver cancer has been rejected for use in the NHS in England and Wales. The assessment body ... says [it] is too expensive."

I heard this won't happen in the US. I heard there was a bridge sale.

Soo--Prise!

http://www.investigatemagazine.com/australia/latestissue.pdf

2009-11-20T15:10:01-06:00

http://www.investigatemagazine.com/australia/latestissue.pdf

A hacker has released a flood of (apparently) genuine emails and pdfs from a climate change research center. The emails certainly seem to suggest a lot of high level data diddling has been going on.

Astonishingly, the major media have been slow to report this.

I also have this link: < http://www.climatedepot.com/ > Note that...

2009-11-20T16:20:01-06:00

I also have this link: <http://www.climatedepot.com/> Note that I am not familiar with the Climate Depot web site. Some of the links there lead to interesting information. I suspect that this is a large enough story that some large media organizations with far more fact checking resources than I have -- Fox News, at least, and possibly more main stream outfits -- will be unable to ignore it.

It does appear that the consensus has within it a conspiracy whose goal is to produce a consensus. The payoff is big grants, travel tickets to conferences in nice places to be, and generally financing many of the people who form the consensus. That isn't to say there are not genuine scientists among the consensus.

At one time the "climate change" community was starkly divided: the modelers were certain that there would be global warming. All their models said so, starting with Arrhenius and his simple calculations in 1895. Rising CO2 levels would bring warming. At the same time the data gatherers insisted they had not seen any warming other than the 1 degree F per century trend that began in the 14th Century as the Little Ice Age was ending -- and even that seemed to be faltering.

When the data and the models disagree, common sense would say to revise the models, and for a while that was what was going on; but then a number of highly visible scientists began political campaigns. There was Hansen rolling his large cardboard dice in an artificially heated Congressional Committee hearing room. That was in 1989; prior to 1985 or so the consensus among climate scientists was that the Earth was cooling, and the probable disaster was another Little Ice Age. After Hansen's dramatic act there was funding of new studies of warning, and the consensus began to shift from the view of the data collectors to the views of the modelers. Some of modelers were not terribly scientific: there was Mann with his "hockey stick" who refused to publish either the model or the data set he was using. "Trade Secret" science was something new, and he got little support for his position among scientists -- but he got quite a lot from the science administration bureaucracy that compiles and publishes a number of official reports.

The result was that Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy took over: those who got control of science organizations acted to increase their influence and the money flow toward their organizations.

We now hear that a number of actual scientists are beginning to question the warming hypothesis. Some are nonplussed. Is the cooling due to solar activity? Ocean currents? Cosmic rays? You can find supporters of each hypothesis. Of course this is from scientists who pay attention to data. Big Science continues to denounce Climate Change Deniers. The very name implies obloquy of course. You can't just not agree with the consensus -- you have to be a "denier", practically guilty of a hate crime just for your beliefs.

And now we find that at least some of the "Consensus" is in fact a conspiracy. I am sure we have not heard the last of this, Meanwhile, we have this:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html

11/19/2009

Stagnating Temperatures

Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out

Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

Which sounds to me as if climatologists are now admitting they have not the faintest idea of what is going on. I have a remedy for them. Study the data and refine the models. Stop assuming you already know the answers and start looking for better models....

But for the moment the Consensus begins to look more and more like a Conspiracy.

The Global Warming Consensus: Consensus or Conspiracy?

2009-11-20T12:00:05-06:00

I have a number of pointers to this:

Jerry

You may have already heard of the leak at the Hadley CRU of emails and documents... and I do not advocate such behavior but understand the reason a geek whistle blower hacked in and made these available. Oh my! http://tinyurl.com/yl2vfw6

-- duas unica in puncta mortalis est

Apparently some of the global warming consensus has been a bit less than honest. They feel so strongly about their theory that they feel no compunction about what they are doing.

I have often observed that you can prove anything if you can make up your data.

Heading out for our walk.

A clarification

2009-11-20T12:00:01-06:00

Thursday View Roundup 4

2009-11-20T01:40:02-06:00

Yikes!

2009-11-19T15:30:11-06:00

Yikes!

l <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/
article-1226672/Asteroid-scrapes-past-Earth
-just-8-700miles-away--15-hours-warning.html>

Steven

"We have had huge climate change in the past and to think the very slight...

2009-11-19T15:30:10-06:00

"We have had huge climate change in the past and to think the very slight variations we measure today are the result of our life - we really have to put ice blocks in our drinks."

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/
6553592/Climate-change-sceptic-Ian-Plimer-
argues-CO2-is-not-causing-global-warming.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

The evidence pours in, but of course evidence is irrelevant. What's important is consensus.

"Each vehicle will be equipped with a GPS device that tracks how many...

2009-11-19T15:30:09-06:00

"Each vehicle will be equipped with a GPS device that tracks how many kilometres are driven and when and where. This data will be then be sent to a collection agency that will send out the bill."

<http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id
=CNG.244057bd1b30448115575c2187e6
8681.141&show_article=1>

--- Roland Dobbins

Benefits of outsourcing.

2009-11-19T15:30:08-06:00

Benefits of outsourcing.

<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/
worldnews/article-1226934/Indian-police-
arrest-company-boss-accused-selling-
medical-records-British-patients.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Free Enterprise...

The show trials in Manhattan

2009-11-19T15:30:07-06:00

The show trials in Manhattan

Hello Jerry,

Forgetting for a moment the 'bait for more terrorism' aspect of bringing the poor abused victims back to NY so that they can have a 'fair trial' (for what?), think about what is going to happen when these folks get into court with the best multi-million dollar defense team that can be rounded up by the ACLU and funded by your tax dollars and are able spend a year or two forcing every intelligence agency in the country to testify under oath how they acquired said victims, what made them think that they were terrorists in the first place, where their information came from, how reliable it was, what was done to the victims while they were AT Gitmo, ad nauseum. And think who will be blamed for the unwarranted persecution of these poor innocent folks when they are predictably exonerated and released to resume killing Americans.

Then think who the folks are who came up with this 'plan', their background, and whether they are too stupid to be aware of the implications of a trial.

Then, considering how the whole process is likely to play out, decide if the actual objective of the whole farce is to try, convict, and punish 'criminals', or to use the process to damage the United States to the maximum extent possible.

You continue to give our current rulers the benefit of the doubt (although I am recently seeing signs of wavering) as well intentioned, but misguided people who have only love and respect for our country and are doing their inept best to 'support and defend' it and its Constitution.

I think that the evidence has become overwhelming that they are neither well intentioned nor misguided. It is simply that the principles which guide them call for the destruction of the United States as a Democratic Republic and replacing it with a Marxist Tyranny. And they are proceeding, very competently and thoroughly, apace.

Bob Ludwick

Dr. Pournelle,

2009-11-19T15:30:06-06:00

Dr. Pournelle,

Here's what we need as reported by The Wall Street Journal:

"The Edsel of Education Reform The Ford Foundation finds a needy cause: teachers unions."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240
52748704402404574527641778464958.html

Pete Nofel

Just what we need! Now there's a use for tax exempt money.

Intel brass sued over antitrust wrangle,

2009-11-19T15:30:05-06:00

Intel brass sued over antitrust wrangle,

Jerry

Here's an interesting new wrinkle in antitrust litigation:

"Intel CEO Paul Otellni and a host of other top Intel brass past and present have been fingered by a shareholder lawsuit, accused of ignoring and pandering to antitrust misconduct that resulted in record fines for the company:"

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/11/17/
intel_shareholder_lawsuit_antitrust_
delaware_nov_09/

I'm still digesting this, myself. Private enforcement of antitrust law. Hmm.

Copyright Time Bomb Set to Disrupt Music, Publishing Industries.

2009-11-19T15:30:04-06:00

<http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/11/
copyright-time-bomb-set-to-disrupt-music-
publishing-industries/>

--- Roland Dobbins

: Nidal Hasan - not quite sure what to make of this..

2009-11-19T15:30:03-06:00

: Nidal Hasan - not quite sure what to make of this..

He was a participant of the Homeland Security Policy Institute Presidential Transition Task Force.

See document page 29, pdf page 32.

http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/old/
PTTF_ProceedingsReport_05.19.09.pdf

Best, -jim

Kindle for PC in action on tablets, handhelds.

2009-11-20T01:40:01-06:00

Kindle for PC in action on tablets, handhelds.

<http://jezlyn.wordpress.com/2009/11/10
/my-tablet-pc-is-now-a-kindle/>

<http://www.umpcportal.com/2009/11/
kindle-for-umpc-now-available-hands-on/>

<http://www.appscout.com/2009/11/
test_drive_amazon_kindle_for_t.php>

<http://www.bulldogsolutions.net/VerisignInternetDefense/
VSN11192009/frmRegistration.aspx?bdls=22305>

--- Roland Dobbins

The Senate version of the health care bill changes the definition of a primary...

2009-11-19T15:10:03-06:00

The Senate version of the health care bill changes the definition of a primary care physician to include LVN and Physician Assistant. I'm not entirely sure this is a bad thing, but I am quite certain it need not be in a national law.

Subsidiarity and transparency...

Office 2010 Public Beta now available

2009-11-19T15:10:04-06:00

Outlook Tip for November 18 2009 (office 2010 beta)

Welcome to Outlook Tips, your source for daily tips on using Outlook effectively.

Outlook Tips: Office 2010 Beta

November 18 2009

The public beta is now available at http://www.microsoft.com/office/2010/en/default.aspx

You’ll need a live id (passport) and answer a short survey to get to the download page.

I highly recommend users not install it on their “production” system. If you ignore this advice, install the 32bit version, especially if you use add-ins or sync with devices. Existing add-ins will not work with the 64bit version. There is a good chance they will work with the32bit build.

For best results, uninstall your current version of Outlook and make a backup copy of any PST in your profile. The old profile should work ok, but you should consider making a new one.

If you use the Outlook Connector uninstall it before installing it beta. Outlook should offer to download the new connector for you. If not, make a new profile and add the Hotmail/Live account to it. This should bring up the offer to download the new connector. Once installed, it will work with the account in the old profile.

Bonus tip: Look on the File tab for Options and Account settings.

Diane Poremsky Outlook-tips.net

Search the archives at http://www.outlook-tips.net/archives/ RSS Feed: http://outlook-tips.net/cs/blogs/outlooktips/rss.aspx

Subscribe: mailto:dailytips-subscribe-request@lists.outlooktips.net Unsubscribe: mailto:dailytips-unsubscribe-request@lists.outlooktips.net <mailto:dailytips-unsubscribe-request@lists.outlooktips.net>

Hasan attack and Purple Hearts

2009-11-19T15:30:02-06:00

Hasan attack and Purple Hearts

Dr Pournelle, when Puerto Rican terrorists attacked the bus carrying watch standers to the NSGA site on that island, the wounded were given Purple Hearts. So the statement "The fact that the proposed recipient was participating in direct or indirect combat operations is a necessary prerequisite..." didn't hold true in that case.

I believe those wounded and dead deserve the Purple Heart. They were attacked not because of who they were but of what they were. If a soldier is attacked on a street corner, simply because he has volunteered to serve his country, I think he too should be awarded the Purple Heart.

Wasn't the original intent of the award to give it to someone wounded in defense of their country?

Thanks.

Heiskell Christmas

"The intention of anybody possessing a firearm is irrelevant."

2009-11-19T14:30:24-06:00

"The intention of anybody possessing a firearm is irrelevant."

<http://www.thisissurreytoday.co.uk/news
/Ex-soldier-faces-jail-handing-gun/article-
1509082-detail/article.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

No longer a castle. No longer an England. Or a Scotland.

Maersk Alabama repels 2nd pirate attack with guns - Yahoo! News

2009-11-19T14:30:23-06:00

Maersk Alabama repels 2nd pirate attack with guns - Yahoo! News

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091118/ap_on_re_eu/piracy

Dear Jerry:

Piracy, like all forms of terrorism , is an insurable risk. I wonder if this is like guarding factory and other buildings where the reductions in premiums pays for the added security. If so, we'll see more stories like this.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

Indeed. Or escalation?

intellectual property

2009-11-19T14:30:22-06:00

intellectual property

http://mises.org/books/against.pdf

Dear Jerry,

Have you seen this poorly written socialist tract masquerading as "libertarian thought"?

As you pointed out once, if intellectual property is so worthless and inconsequential, why are they so eager to get their hands on it?

-- Recent novels from Michael Z. Williamson CONTACT WITH CHAOS, Apr 09 from Baen Books

Intellectual property is what I make my living on. I am not an absolutist -- the Constitution sets definite conditions for my temporary monopoly -- but I have no other real source of income.

Survivalists Alert: MacKenzie's Recipes

2009-11-19T14:30:25-06:00

Survivalists Alert

macKenzie's 10,000 receipts

Jerry,

I was reading your column on Chaos Manor Special Reports - notes from a survival sage. Just wanted to note that you can read Mackenzie's 10,000 receipts on Google Books and download the PDF for free !

Here's the link:

http://books.google.com/books?
id=GZxBAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA4&lpg=
PA4&dq=MacKenzie's+10,000+
receipts&source=bl&ots=kIiAPs9Gfl&sig=
Seu4EMiFiGrjNDxlT-DyaMaVh1Q&hl=
en&ei=dWYES9CWJ
dSzlAfm8ZjnAQ&sa=X&oi=book
_result&ct=result&resnum=
1&ved=0CAgQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q
=MacKenzie's%2010%2C000%20receipts&f=false

Enjoy,

Ron Perrella

Cosmic Rays and Climate

2009-11-19T14:30:19-06:00

Climate, clouds, and cosmic rays

Jerry:

Here's a piece from the Register, a UK paper that seems skeptical enough about climate catastrophe to have a topic called "Thermogeddon". http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/
11/16/cern_cloud_experiment/

Essentially, over the recent past and over deep time, global temperatures have correlated much better with cosmic ray bombardment than with carbon dioxide levels.

...........Karl Lembke

Kindle Sales

2009-11-19T14:30:16-06:00

Kindle Sales explode for Random House – $2.9 to $22.6 million.

<http://ireaderreview.com/2009/11/15/
kindle-sales-explode-for-random-house-
2-9-to-22-6-million/>

- Roland Dobbins

Once more on electronic interference on airplanes

2009-11-19T14:30:14-06:00

: Electronics Interference redux...

Hi -

You're probably tired of hearing yet another opinion, but here it goes: for many years I was a member of the IEEE and received, of course, their excellent Spectrum magazine. Back in the late 1980s/early 1990s there was an article discussing exactly this problem. Unfortunately, their online archives only go back so far, and work led me astray from continuing the IEEE membership (and space constraints led to the lack of archive: I had to choose between SF novels and the IEEE, and the IEEE lost).

That article pointed out several things:

1) it's not so much the direct RF output, but much more the combined output from multiple devices echoing around that tube of steel and aluminum that represents the danger, leading to problems with harmonics and reinforced waves from multiple devices;

2) it's not that individual instruments go bonkers and cease to work, but much more that the mixture of harmonics and sources of RF can lead to drift in readings from sensors and electronics that are unknown and uncontrollable;

3) it's not that each individual device represents the entirety of the danger, but rather the use, especially during landing and takeoff which one commentor has properly pointed out tends to make recoverable problems non-recoverable, of many different devices leading to an unknown RF environment with many possibilities of creating problems that are not immediately noticeable;

4) testing for this - to allow the use of consumer electronics of any kind - during phases of operation of aircraft is not even remotely feasible, given the enormous spectrum (pun intended) of RF radiation from such devices in varying states of repair;

5) given that we're talking about flying, with little or no survival rates from crashes, the responsibilties and duties of the aircraft manufacturer and the airline take precedence over the inconvenience of consumers;

and

6) while not mentioned in the article, let us do remember that there has been a case where an aircraft veered off course for reasons not clearly understood and was then shot down by the Soviets: Korean Air Flight 007 (at least Wikipedia doesn't point to clear reasons why that flight went off course so dramatically (besides the usual conspiracy theories)).

It's the undetermined probability of RF harmonics messing with sensor inputs that makes turning them off sensible to me: there is no way to test for this. Inflight, after the autopilots are on and control has been turned over to the computers, the pilots are there to monitor their performance and any problems can be identified, caught and solved before they turn into life-endangering problems.

If' I'm entrusting my life to a pressurized tube powered by high temperature, high speed rotating fans and carried by pressure differentials operated by humans dependent on inputs from electronic devices in term dependent upon sensor inputs for operating parameters, then I want those operating parameters to be reported cleanly. For that purpose, I'm more than happy to turn off my computer or cell during those time periods.

Others not wanting to do so are placing their inconvenience over what appears to me to be legitimate and proper safety considerations.

I'd love to have the original article, but as I said, the online archives only go back 10 years...

Best regards

John F. Opie

And that, I think should end the matter. I don't much mind turning off my phone and computer before takeoff and before landing.

Water on the Moon

2009-11-19T14:30:09-06:00

Water on the moon

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I will be fascinated to hear what you learned at your conference. If you are able and not TOO angry I'd also be interested in hearing how bad the flight was.

I'm sure you saw this: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/
LCROSS/main/prelim_water_results.html

Finding 25 gallons of water where most scientists have long believed there was none is like shaking a haystack and having 25 needles fall at your feet. What I thought was interesting was NASA playing coy about seeing the spectra of "volatiles," and "hints other intriguing substances." We can hope they are talking about carbon and ammonia.

Sincerely, Frank Luxem

It is very exciting and has profound implications.

'Basically, the regolith absorbs electrically charged particles given out by the Sun. These electrically charged particles interact with molecules of oxygen that are already present in lunar dust, and voila, you have H2O.'

<http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/
2009/11/moon-water-will-lunarbase-humans
-be-able-to-drink-it-a-weekend-special.html>

--- Roland Dobbins

Magnetic monopoles

2009-11-19T14:30:08-06:00

Magnetic Monopoles?

Jerry:

I'll bet at least a couple of your readers will be interested in this.

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/
2009-10/newly-dicovered-monopole-particles-
flow-electric-currents

In 1931, physicist Paul Dirac hypothesized that on the quantum level, magnetic charge must exist in discrete packets, or quanta, in the same way that electric energy exists in a photon. This implies the existence of magnetic monopoles: particles that have a single magnetic charge, or polar identity -- north or south.

For 78 years, Dirac's speculation interested only hardcore theorists, because the conjecture failed to find any expression in observed phenomena. All magnets had two poles, one north and one south, inextricably attached to each other.

That all changed in September, when physicists discovered the identity-carrying particle <http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2009-09/
have-scientists-finally-found-elusive-monopole> Dirac predicted, as well as the one-poled magnets the particle creates. These magnets, called monopoles, exist only in special crystals called "spin ice," which can't form regular magnets due to the forces generated by the unique geometry in their crystal bonding structure.

Now, English scientists have discovered how to make magnetic poles flow through those crystals like an electric current, transforming parts of the crystals into monopoles in waves. This advance takes this field out of theory and into the real world of computer engineering.

In a regular computer, chips store information as an electric charge. Positive and negative charges represent the ones and zeroes of programming code.

This new discovery opens up the possibility that magnetic monopoles could be used for computer storage. If magnetic polar identity can flow through crystals of spin ice, then the current of identity could replace positive and negative charges with positive and negative monopoles as the information storage medium. And since controlling the magnetic identity of electrons underlies quantum computing, this ability to alter that identity with a current positions spin ice as the new, leading candidate for quantum computing chips.

And if you aren't excited about the future of quantum computing, you're probably reading the wrong website.

Karl

I need to think about this one. Not sure what it all means.

On transparency, subsidiarity, and education

2009-11-20T12:00:03-06:00

Thomas Hiltzik in today's LA Times has written a reasonable description of the California education system's problems: too much money is being spent on not enough.
http://www.latimes.com/business/
la-fi-hiltzik19-2009nov19,0,5135920.column

It's fairly obvious what the problem is: far from the principles of transparency and subsidiarity, which would be the only successful approach to education reform, the state tries to centralize all decisions and make everything dependent on a central bureaucracy. I covered some of this in an essay last June, and that's still worth reading. California's problems began when the courts, presumably in the hopes of doing good, ordered some equalization of school district funding: wealthy districts were spending too much, and poor districts didn't have enough to spend, and the state had to do something about it. The constitutional basis of Serrano vs. Priest should have been challenged then and there: I see no compelling reason why the people of a school district in Paradise, California, should be taxed to increase the amount that the Los Angeles County Unified School District pays for its schools.

The result is about what you'd expect. The state bureaucracy controls the school funding, and mandates how a great deal of it will be spent, so that Paradise and Los Angeles, the one a small country school district whose school board actually pays attention -- or did pay attention -- to school results and what parents say and want, and the other a monstrous aggregate of inner city and outer suburb and everything in between whose board will schedule parents three (3) minutes for a meeting at least six (6) months after an application for appointment, must have the same policies. Paradise no longer controls either financing nor policies for its students. LA Unified never had a chance of a policy that would work in both Studio City and Watts.

I'm a little familiar with Studio City, Watts, and Paradise: I live in Studio City and although my children did not go to the local Carpenter Ave. public school, we know teachers there and we know neighbor children who do go there. I'm not so familiar with Watts today, but when I was a professor at Pepperdine I daily went to teach at the edge of Watts, and many of my students were graduates of LA public schools in the surrounding area. I realize that doesn't sound like the Pepperdine now known as Malibu U, but in those days the campus was on New Hampshire Avenue just South of Florence, and I used to walk with my Noon Senior Seminar students to Broadway and Manchester for hot dogs and ice cream in a perambulatory class session (about 12 students, generally about half black; it was an honors pre-law seminar on American Public Law). George Pepperdine founded his college with the intention of providing quality Christian (Church of Christ, to be exact) education to those too poor to go to major institutions, and thus located it in what was then near a number of light industries and other places where students could get manual labor jobs and work their way through college. The neighborhood changed over the years, and Pepperdine thanks to huge grants from a number of wealthy contributors moved out to Malibu. I didn't go with it. My familiarity with Paradise comes from their having hired me and Doc Lawler (once well known for his "each one teach one" literacy program) to go up and examine how well their schools were doing.

While some of my direct familiarity with Watts and Paradise is out of date, I do follow results; and it's very clear to me that all of our school districts have suffered badly from state centralization of education -- from the abandonment of transparency and subsidiarity. You may find more about this in a lengthy answer I gave to a letter about a year ago just after the election. It too is worth your time.

Transparency and subsidiarity are not fads or cure alls. They are, however, the necessary and often sufficient condition to many problems of social governance. They are necessary if we are to avoid the coming dark age. Dark Age Ahead

I have repeatedly said: the place to begin education reform is in the District of Columbia. Congress has the undoubted right to govern the city in any way it wants to. It has the money: DC spends more per pupil than anywhere else so far as I know. If there is education expertise in this world, let it be applied to DC. Let DC show us how things are to be done, rather than have Washington tell us how things must be done without any demonstration that their programs and desires will work.

The education crisis is real. The only way out of it is first to see what the goals of education must be: to educate students, to have them leave schools ready to be citizens, to get jobs, to do useful work: some immediately, some after further training, some after a liberal education, some after a stint in the military, and some only after many years of University including graduate school. The notion that one form of education will suffice for all these categories is patently ridiculous. The notion that eggheads in University Departments of Education know of policies that will be useful across this nation is at best an unverified hypothesis facing massive evidence that it is not true.

If the goal of education is to produce useful citizens, why are we not doing it despite spending far more, now, than ever we did in the past?

But of course the goal of the education system has little to do with education at all. The goals of the education system are determined by Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy, and in fact the education system is one of the most powerful data sets confirming the Iron Law.

Transparency and subsidiarity. A Watts school district controlled by Watts -- taxes and policy -- would have far less money per pupil than is spent there now -- and I would wager that it would have far better schools. And whether it does or not, we can be very certain that a Sherman Oaks school district given control of both the finances and policies of its local schools would produce better schools than it has now -- and spend less money on them.

There used to be three enormous examples of the futility of centralized planning of massive activities: NASA, the Soviet System of Agriculture, and the American system of education. NASA is trying to change as it shrinks, and one change was Dan Goldin's attempt to decentralize. The Soviet system of collective farming vanished with the other central planning of that failed empire. The American system of education remains, grows more powerful, and accomplishes less every year; and attempts to 'reform' it consist of even more centralization.

Somewhere we ought to try transparency and subsidiarity. Until we do we sow the wind. The whirlwind will be a Dark Age. Dark Ages are not times in which we simply cannot do things we used to be able to do: they are times when we have forgotten that we ever could do them, that they ever could be done. We sow that wind. Dark Age Ahead

Heinlein's Colorado House

2009-11-19T11:50:02-06:00

Google's digitized newstand has turned up some interesting stuff, including this article from June, 1952 issue of Popular Mechanics:
http://books.google.com
/books?id=XNwDAAAAMBAJ&pg
=PA65&dq=
popular+mechanics+
heinlein&lr=&as_pt=
MAGAZINES&rview=1#v=
onepage&q=&f=false

I had not known he published that: he swore me to secrecy regarding the existence of sleep over guest facilities in that house! He said far too many people would try to wangle a way to stay there. (I had a room at the Broadmoor Hotel, but it snowed as Robert and I sat talking in his living room, and the car could not get up the steep driveway that night.) The house looked much like that the night I stayed there.

Wednesday Mail Roundup 8

2009-11-19T14:30:20-06:00

Mandelbulb

2009-11-19T14:30:18-06:00

Mandelbulb

Some of these look to be knitted; I do recall that some guy involved in Mandelbrot sets learned how to knit. Enjoy.

http://www.skytopia.com/project/fractal/mandelbulb.html#renders

'So far, swine flu is not a medical emergency...

2009-11-19T14:30:17-06:00

'So far, swine flu is not a medical emergency, though no one says that very clearly.'

I'll go even further and state that the whole thing is a grossly-exaggerated near-hoax genned up by health bureaucrats who're seeking larger shares of their respective budgets and greater powers over the citizenry:

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/16/
AR2009111602631.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Well now, I wouldn't say that... Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. Napoleon Bonaparte

Guardian story about a high rate of birth defects in Falluja...

2009-11-19T14:30:15-06:00

Guardian story about a high rate of birth defects in Falluja, Iraq <http://tinyurl.com/yholpyj> >

Neurologists and obstetricians in the city interviewed by the Guardian say the rise in birth defects – which include a baby born with two heads, babies with multiple tumours, and others with nervous system problems - are unprecedented and at present unexplainable. ... areas that have in the past also been intense battle zones where modern munitions have been heavily used.

----------------------

Ahhhhhh yes... That depleted Uranium sabot ammunition...

These are a people who stole barrels used to store yellowcake and use it to store drinking water. Sad and pathetic, true, but will Political Correctness overshadow the truth?

Jerry,

2009-11-19T14:30:13-06:00

Jerry,

You wrote "There seems to be a tizzy about President Obama bowing to the Emperor of Japan.

I can't think why. "

It is not the act of bowing that irks. As you noted there is precedent for adhering to protocols in foreign courts.

What irked me was the depth of the bow. I have only a passing familiarity with 'bowing in Japan' but the little I do know informs me that a deep bow such as that is from an inferior to a superior. A person of my acquaintance familiar with Asia wrote it was the kind of bow you'd see from a bathroom attendant to the Emperor, not from a head of state to the Emperor.

-- Brian Dunbar Geidus

"Display some adaptability"

I find my time limited, and I haven't time properly to consider all the more serious matters I can identify. There are many things going on at State that I don't like much.

British Navy was within 50 feet of Somali Pirates as they Kidnapped British...

2009-11-19T14:30:12-06:00

British Navy was within 50 feet of Somali Pirates as they Kidnapped British Citizens

Their poltroonery in letting the pirates do this may be related to the advice that no pirate should be taken on a British ship in case he applies for political asylum. Words cannot express how far this is from the Nelson tradition.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/
afp/article/ALeqM5j26c2x65W3AFjK
MNqMZv9OTKJqEQ

Neil Craig

"I came away thinking...

2009-11-19T14:30:11-06:00

"I came away thinking, if the 20th century was the American century . . . you have to believe that the 21st century will be the Chinese century."

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2009/11/13/AR2009111303151_pf.html>

- Roland Dobbins

On airplanes and at PDC all day.

2009-11-18T19:50:01-06:00

On airplanes and at PDC all day.

I have heard on the radio that "some" are proposing that Hasan...

2009-11-18T19:20:02-06:00

I have heard on the radio that "some" are proposing that Hasan be stripped of his citizenship and tried as a saboteur. I can't imagine who came up with this proposal and I suspect some talk show host heard it in a bull session and decided to act as if it were serious; but I don't know. I do know it's a horrible idea in about twenty different ways, and it has zero chance of implementation. We haven't gone that far. I do find that Puerto Rico secessionists killed and wounded armed service people in domestic violence, and the victims got Purple Hearts.

Meanwhile there is the decision.

Attorney General Eric Holder told the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday that "failure is not an option" in the prosecution of accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in a New York City courtroom.

But he also acknowledged that the Obama administration may shift an acquitted terrorist back into open-ended military detention rather than allow him to walk free.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/1119/p02s13-usju.html

This reminds me of the old Western joke, about giving Old Bart a fair trial and then hang him. Surely this is not the way to show how fair and free our system is, or to generate more respect for it? Or have I missed something?

1700. Back from PDC. They are doing exciting things with Azure...

2009-11-18T19:20:01-06:00

1700. Back from PDC. They are doing exciting things with Azure, Silverlight, and their 2010 series. For a short report, see http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/11/18/silverlight_4_beta/ which caught much of what was said today. They seem pretty confident that they'll get all this done quickly. We will see on that. I will have much to say about the implications of the conference in my next column; I don't do breaking news any more. There was plenty of coverage of that.

One thing: the giveaways seemed pretty meager until today when they announced that conference members would receive a new Acer laptop set up to show much of what they are doing, with all the new beta software installed. It's the size of a netbook and a powerful little machine and I am sure you'll see some coverage of it on the breaking news web sites: alas, the Press didn't get one. Nor do government employees attending PDC. Since in the past the Press attendees all got everything anyone else did, I am wondering if this is due to these crazy new rules of the new administration. I can't think Acer and Intel would quibble about under two hundred press units given the thousands they were handing out to everyone else. The lines were very long at 12:30 today....

I'm home. I went down to the Microsoft PDC direct from the airplane and I'll...

2009-11-17T21:50:02-06:00

I'm home. I went down to the Microsoft PDC direct from the airplane and I'll be there again tomorrow so it's early to bed. I'm exhausted.. And my watch stopped working when I set the time to local LA time. Sigh.

I'll probably be late getting this up tomorrow, too.

Done after a long an exhausting day. Bed time. WinHEC started today will get...

2009-11-16T22:00:02-06:00

Done after a long an exhausting day. Bed time. WinHEC started today will get there Tomorrow in the Afternoon, which I must go to direct from Burbank airport. Nothing much here until tomorrow night.

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

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Monday Mail Roundup 4

2009-11-16T14:10:03-06:00

Actually, the surfaces are painted with radar-reflective material...

2009-11-16T14:10:02-06:00

Actually, the surfaces are painted with radar-reflective material, and only USS Alexander Hamilton and USS Aaron Burr have duel masts

From Popular Mechanics: "All these surfaces are also painted with radar-reflective material. The duel masts are enclosed in a composite material that allows antennas to transmissions to travel <http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military_law/4336537.html#> through."

I find it interesting that we have two ships with those names.

Sunday Mail Roundup 1

2009-11-16T14:00:09-06:00

Saturday Mail Roundup 1

2009-11-16T14:00:08-06:00

Brain Cancer in NYT

2009-11-20T15:00:07-06:00

Brain Cancer in NYT

A New York Time article you may find of interest:

Breaching a Barrier to Fight Brain Cancer Getting drugs into the brain has always been a major challenge in treating tumors <http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/tumor/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier> and other neurological diseases, because the blood-brain barrier, a natural defense system, keeps many drugs out. The study that Mr. Sugrue is in, at <http://nyp.org/> NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/
reference/timestopics/organizations
/n/new_york-presbyterian_hospital
/index.html?inline=nyt-org> , combines old technologies in a new way to open the barrier and deliver extraordinarily high doses of Avastin straight to these deadly tumors -- without soaking the rest of the brain in the drug and exposing it to side effects.

http://www.nytimes.com/
2009/11/17/health/17tumor.html?_r=1&em

Richard

Which is very much worth following.

XEROX IS DOING SOMETHING COOL

2009-11-19T14:30:21-06:00

XEROX IS DOING SOMETHING COOL

If you go to this web site, www.LetsSayThanks.com <http://www.letssaythanks.com/> you can pick out a thank you card and Xerox will print it and it will be sent to a soldier that is currently serving in Iraq . You can't pick out who get s it, but it will go to a member of the armed services. How AMAZING it would be if we could get everyone we know to send one!!! It is FREE and it only takes a second. Wouldn't it be wonderful if the soldiers received a bunch of these? Whether you are for or against the war, our soldiers over there need to know we are behind them. This takes just 10 seconds and it's a wonderful way to say thank you. Please take the time and please take the time to pass it on for others to do. We can never say enough thank you's. Thanks for taking to time to support our military!

: Biofuels Breakthrough...

2009-11-19T14:30:10-06:00

: Biofuels Breakthrough: Making Fuel From Air With Engineered Microbes : Gas 2.0

http://gas2.org/2009/11/10/
biofuels-breakthrough-making-fuel-
from-air-with-engineered-microbes/

Mike

This is another one I need to find out more about before I let my blood pressure rise.

The Union and the Boy Scout

2009-11-16T14:10:01-06:00

The Union and the Boy Scout

Dr. Pournelle --

There's something seriously wrong with this situation. (emphasis mine)

Union troubled by Eagle Scout project in Allentown http://www.mcall.com/news
/all-a8_5scout.7084728
nov15,0,6238384.story

"In pursuit of an Eagle Scout badge, Kevin Anderson, 17, has toiled for more than 200 hours hours [sic] over several weeks to clear a walking path in an east Allentown park."

"Nick Balzano, president of the local Service Employees International Union, told Allentown City Council Tuesday that the union is considering filing a grievance against the city for allowing Anderson to clear a 1,000-foot walking and biking path at Kimmets Lock Park.

"We'll be looking into the Cub Scout or Boy Scout who did the trails," Balzano told the council."

So much for the associations that de Tocqueville spoke of.

Pieter

No comment is needed.

I am doing this Sunday night. I will try to do an update Monday PM. There was...

2009-11-16T14:00:02-06:00

I am doing this Sunday night. I will try to do an update Monday PM. There was mail yesterday.

Letter from England

2009-11-16T14:00:03-06:00

Letter From England

Guardian story about a high rate of birth defects in Falluja, Iraq <http://tinyurl.com/yholpyj>

Washington Post story about high BPA levels affecting male sexual problems <http://tinyurl.com/yj8223h>

Australia apologises for treatment of children involved in a child migration scheme from the UK during 1947-67. "The (UK) children were separated from their families (by the Government) and told they were orphans, while the parents were told that they had gone to a better life. But most were brought up in institutions, or by farmers, and many were treated as child slave labour." <http://tinyurl.com/yzpnntl> <http://tinyurl.com/yzclqeg>

UK proposal to ration carbon usage on an individual basis. <http://tinyurl.com/ygvd46d>

US rejects UK proposal to tax financial transactions. <http://tinyurl.com/yc5s5ts> I'm glad someone in the discussion has some sense. This is the sort of tax proposal I've come to expect from UK politicians. One of my hobbies is trading in biotech, a less efficient sector of the stock market. My activity--since I base it on a knowledge of the technology and the industry--helps stabilise that market, as well as making me money. If I were taxed *specifically* for doing this, it would make the market less efficient, the global economy less productive, and everyone, on the average, poorer.

This report is the sort of thing that makes UK ministers leery of listening to scientists and engineers <http://tinyurl.com/yf9x6tg>

"The difference between theory and practice is that, in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there is." (Tom Vogl)

Harry Erwin

Sunday View Roundup 1

2009-11-16T13:50:06-06:00

In case it wasn't clear: what I said yesterday was not that the goal of most...

2009-11-20T12:00:04-06:00

In case it wasn't clear: what I said yesterday was not that the goal of most teachers is false; it is that the goal of the system is dictated by the Iron Law. There are many good teachers and some excellent teachers in the school system. Some produce remarkable results, and one of the things Bill and Melinda Gates' foundation has found is that an excellent teacher can produce far more spectacular results than smaller class sizes, better books, or any of the other conventional remedies. But the system not only doesn't recognize that, but works against it. The system resists the entire notion of merit pay, or promotion on classroom merit, or anything like that.

Subsidiarity and transparency. Local control of policy will generate thousands of policies. Some will be successful.

The University Students in California are out protesting the tuition...

2009-11-19T15:10:02-06:00

The University Students in California are out protesting the tuition: they assert their right to have someone else pay for their education.

That is worth a long essay and a number of questions. I got my education in a state university system: indeed I went to the University of Washington because I was legally a Washington state resident due to my parents then residing in the then Territory of Alaska -- Alaskans were Washington state residents, since Alaska was an economic colony of Seattle at the time. I couldn't afford a private university, and I was running out of the GI Bill which had paid my way through much of the University of Iowa where I was certainly not a resident. Long story. My point is that I can hardly denounce the state university system in this country.

But whether given the new and enormous costs of state universities -- see the Iron Law of Bureaucracy for many of the reasons why -- and the enormous expansion of that system (California used to have a system in which the Universities had tiny elite undergraduate programs and were mostly graduate schools, and the State Colleges were undergraduate schools with little graduate school activity -- but that got thrown out in the name of diversity and equality, and now there's no sane allocation system.

But the students had to be dispersed by riot police. And it's not over. That's education for you.

The solution is to admit fewer students to the expensive education systems, and expand the cheaper ones. But that won't happen. It would make too much sense.

Transparency and subsidiarity... That is, keep the State centralized university system, scale it to what can be afforded, and give the local state colleges to their local districts, to control and to finance as they can and will. But that is not likely to happen.

.Washington National Airport on the way home.

2009-11-17T21:50:01-06:00

.Washington National Airport on the way home.

====

Jerry,

Your correspondent was making a mild pun about the use of the word "duel" instead of the correct word "dual" with reference to the twin masts of the USS New York; referring to the duel between Burr and Hamilton. To the best of my knowledge, the U.S. Navy currently has no warships named for Mr. Hamilton nor for Mr. Burr. We do have the USS Paul Hamilton (a former Secretary of the Navy under President James Madison), DDG-60. See:

http://www.paul-hamilton.navy.mil/

For a listing of U.S. Navy warships, see:

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/

Also, I strongly suspect that the USS New York has radar absorptive material topside, vice radar reflective material; the latter would increase her radar cross section (RCS) instead of reducing it. What she has to reduce her RCS above the waterline is possibly a refinement of the radar absorptive material developed in secret during the old "Outlaw Bandit" program. See:

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/weaps/outlaw_bandit.htm

Here is what the USS New York official website has to say on the matter:

http://www.ussny.org/faq.php

------

...

What revolutionary design attributes or innovations are incorporated into the ships of this class?

Advanced Enclosed Mast/Sensor System. The AEM/S concept totally modified ship appearance topside and improves the warfighting capability through reduced radar cross-section signature, improved sensor performance, and greatly reduced maintenance of the mast and antennas. The concept was proven at sea in USS Radford (DD 968) and will be installed in each ship of the San Antonio (LPD 17) Class. Antennas are located inside each of two masts, which use a hybrid, frequency selective material to allow communications, and radar signals to pass through, but exclude electronic noise and weather.

...

------

Disclaimer: I have no security classified knowledge of this class of ship.

Best regards,

Rodger Morris NSWC PHD International Military Student Officer

Comes of being in a hurry. I suspected something but didn't stop to think long enough. Thanks

Partly done for the day but a few ends remain. I'll get this off...

2009-11-16T22:00:01-06:00

Partly done for the day but a few ends remain. I'll get this off, but there won't be much here until tonight.

It's actually the night before...

2009-11-16T13:50:01-06:00

It's actually the night before, and I'm about to go to bed, being here in DC (well, Virginia actually) and having an 0630 wakeup call scheduled. There won't be an update here until tomorrow night. I get home Tuesday. I did manage some comments yesterday if you missed them. As well as some mail yesterday.

It's time for bed. I have to get up very early tomorrow.

2009-11-15T19:50:04-06:00

It's time for bed. I have to get up very early tomorrow.

If the administration admits that Hasan committed treason and an act of war against the United States, there are implications that at least some of his advisors do not want to hear.

That would apply to allowing the Purple Heart for the Fort Hood victims: it would have the same implications. Either this is a war on terrorism or -- or what?

I still wonder: suppose they got to Afghanistan and Hasan had shot them down in Kabul just after they landed. Would they get Purple Hearts? If they were killed in a travel way station? On board a US troop carrier on the way to Afghanistan? On an airplane to Afghanistan from the US? What if the airplane was still flying over the United States? Or was on US soil on a runway, ready to take off for Afghanistan or Iraq, and a Muslim soldier aboard jumped up, yelled Allahu Akbar!, and started shooting? I ask not to be witty but to make a point.

And now to bed.

The President made a good speech as Chief Mourner in the Fort Hood Massacre....

2009-11-15T19:50:03-06:00

The President made a good speech as Chief Mourner in the Fort Hood Massacre.

There seems to be a tizzy about President Obama bowing to the Emperor of Japan....

2009-11-15T19:50:02-06:00

There seems to be a tizzy about President Obama bowing to the Emperor of Japan.

I can't think why. John Adams went through the usual ceremonies including three bows when he present his credentials as Ambassador to the Court of St. James after the Revolutionary War. He took some satisfaction over the fact that His Majesty had no choice but to deal with Mad Dog Adams. The United States has generally gone along with the accepted protocols. At the Congress of Vienna everyone was concerned about precedence who should bow to whom. It's the kind of fetish the US has tended to avoid -- it was Adams who declined to address President Washington as His Excellency or any of the other appellations fashionable at the time among Republics and addressed the President simply as "Mr. President."

It is true that we have no "Chief of State" other than the President, and thus we can't shuffle off some of those niceties onto a Royal Family; but we have managed it for a long time. If Obama chooses to go along with the protocol niceties of court procedure, that does no harm to the United States. It's what he agrees to that disturbs me, not his adherence to protocols of long precedence.

Incidentally, even into the early Twentieth Century the Prime Minister of England presented his reports to the reigning monarch on his knees...

Sunday Mail Roundup 9

2009-11-15T13:10:13-06:00

What You Really Should Know About Obama's US Healthcare

2009-11-15T13:10:12-06:00

What You Really Should Know About Obama's US Healthcare

Jerry,

I’m sure there are many such stories out there…but this one is good. If you’ve never read Howard Galganov, he’s got some good stuff.

http://www.galganov.com/editorials.asp?ID=1163

What You Really Should Know About Obama’s US Healthcare By Howard Galganov

About 16 years ago, a dentist friend of the family noticed a swelling under my left ear that I had ignored because it didn’t bother me. His advice was that I see a doctor without delay.

He knew what the swelling probably was, but didn’t want to tell me.

I will do my best to make this long story short: <snip>

...

But, to be sure that it was a tumor, I needed a CAT-SCAN. So, he gave me a prescription for the procedure to be done at the hospital radiology department.

When I handed in the prescription to his receptionist a few moments later, I was told that I would be scheduled for the procedure in about 6-8 weeks if I was lucky.

Whoa - 6-8 weeks with a probable tumor growing in my neck. NO WAY was I going to wait.

I asked the receptionist for the prescription back, as I was going to go to the USA to have the CAT-SCAN done there, to which she quietly said: I’m not allowed to be referring you to this, but there is a “PRIVATE” radiology service that is operating not far from here. She gave us the phone number.

Up till recently, it was AGAINST THE LAW for any private medical procedures to be done in most of Canada that were not elective, such as Plastic Surgery. So this clinic was relatively new.

My wife (Anne) called the private clinic from a hospital payphone, where Anne was told that they could take me right away if I was able to get there within 20 minutes. No problem Anne said. But, they also told her over the phone: We don’t take public healthcare. It was cash, check or credit card. No problem Anne said. And we were on our way.

The procedure cost $280.

When we called the private clinic it was a few minutes before noon. We got there in 15 minutes. They took me right away. The procedure was over in 20 minutes. The films were put in my hands within moments of me getting dressed. And we were back at the hospital just before 1:00 o’clock, where we saw the ENT surgeon walking down the hall.

As I approached him, he smiled and asked why I was still at the hospital. His smile turned to disbelief when I presented him with the CAT-SCAN films.

So, we went back to his office where he reviewed the films. He told me the tumor was in fact the size of a bagel. So big, that he didn’t want to be the one operating on it, as he preferred to leave it to the Chief of Surgery who is renowned for this type of procedure.

I WAS SCHEDULED FOR SURGERY IN JUST ONE WEEK.

But that’s not the end of the story.

After the surgery was done, it turned-out that the tumor was of a very rare mixed variety, where the outside tumor was benign, encapsulating a vicious malignant tumor that would have surely killed me had it entered my Lymphatic System.

And according to the Chief of Surgery, the benign wall separating the malignant tumor from my Lymphatic System was so thin, as to be nearly non existent.

The result was very aggressive radiation therapy that began a couple of months after the surgery, since the surgical wounds had to heal before they could start pummeling my neck and chest with massive doses of tissue destroying radiation.

I was nearly finished the radiation therapy when the hospital’s radiology department called to tell me that they had an opening for a CAT-SCAN, MORE THAN THREE MONTHS AFTER the original request was made (even though we had cancelled it).

Had it not been for the PRIVATE system and the $280 cost, it is very doubtful that I would be here today writing this editorial. BUT IT DOESN’T END HERE EITHER.

Because of the radiation therapy, my left ear doesn’t drain efficiently, which leads to a build-up of dead skin cells on my ear drum, which is uncomfortable, and makes it hard for me to hear.

It has to be cleared by way of minor surgery requiring the steady hand of an ENT doctor aided with a microscope. The entire procedure takes less than 5 minutes.

But, because of Canada’s healthcare policies, it takes anywhere from 3-6 months for me to get an appointment with an ENT doctor. And when I do, it take’s hours in the waiting room for a procedure that takes less time to do than it takes to describe.

Because the Canadian system is so overloaded, and the doctors are so poorly compensated, no one seems to care about the patients, making the medical system somewhat like a meat market.

Receptionists are generally curt, if not downright rude, since they don’t have to be nice to anyone. If you don’t like the service, what are you going to do? Take your so-called free business elsewhere? They don’t care.

If you don’t like waiting for an appointment, or waiting for hours in a crowded waiting room. Tough luck.

Again – what are you going to do, since there is nowhere else to take your business?

I went the so-called private route in Canada (Montreal), since there are more private clinics popping up to deal with people like me. But, I’m not the ONLY person to feel the way I do, so the private option is as nuts and as inundated as the government paid system.

So what’s my option?

I can’t plan on when I need the minor surgery, since it sort of sneaks up on me all of a sudden. So when it happens, I call for an appointment. But as I wrote in the preceding, that could take months before I get to see a doctor for a 5-minute procedure.

So, I decided to try a whole new different strategy. I went to the Internet and researched US hospitals close to where Anne and I live on our side off the US/Canada border, and found an ENT doctor with a great reputation. And I called.

The person who answered the phone was exceedingly polite and helpful. She asked the right questions and gave me the answers to questions I had. She gave me an appointment for 5 days from the time of my call, but told me that she would fit me in sooner if I was really uncomfortable.

But, what really floored me was when she said: Please be on time since we don’t like to keep any of our patients waiting.

Anne and I drove about an hour and a quarter to see the US doctor in his private home/clinic. True to their word, I didn’t wait a moment to be seen.

The doctor’s office was cheerful. He and his staff were cheerful. And he was really well equipped.

The procedure took about 5 minutes. But, in addition to clearing the debris from my eardrum, he also did a comprehensive check-up on both of my ears, my nose, and my throat, which is something NOT one of the Canadian doctors had done who I had seen over the last 16 years.

The total cost for all of this was $96 US.

When Anne and I left his office, I literally held back tears of joy, knowing that I no longer have to grovel, be treated like a piece of meat, and wait months for a procedure that takes 5 minutes to do, and relieves a great deal of discomfort. <snip>

Best Regards . . . Howard Galganov

Tracy Walters, CISSP

'We have reached a point in Afghanistan that the Soviet Union reached in the...

2009-11-15T13:10:11-06:00

'We have reached a point in Afghanistan that the Soviet Union reached in the 1980s: we no longer believe our own propaganda.'

<http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/
its_time_to_surrender_in_afgha_1.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Don't-Miss Video: Incredible Look at U.S. Airways Flight 1549,

2009-11-15T13:10:10-06:00

Don't-Miss Video: Incredible Look at U.S. Airways Flight 1549,

Jerry

Check out this sim of flight 1549, from takeoff to its landing in the Hudson:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/11/
incredible-new-look-at-us-airways-flight-1549/

"[T]he latest work by Kas Osterbuhr, an engineer at K3 Resources who specializes in the visual presentation of complex data, . . . It reconstructs the flight using vast amounts of material, including radar information showing the position of the geese that led to the Airbus A320 losing power. The result is an incredible series of videos providing an immersive look at the flight of Cactus 1549.

"The main video . . . shows a 3-D simulation of the flight from the moment the brakes are released at La Guardia to the collision with the geese to Sully's amazing touchdown. It shows the flight from several angles, including a constant cockpit view in the corner, as well as the plane's air speed and altitude. The video also includes the audio between the crew and air traffic control and text of the conversation between Sullenberger and Skiles. It's an up-close-and-personal look at the demeanor of both pilots.<snip>

Very cool.

A couple years ago, this kind of power would have cost millions

2009-11-15T13:10:09-06:00

Subject: A couple years ago, this kind of power would have cost millions

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/11/12/dell_cray_baby_super/

Dell resells customized Cray baby super

It's a workcluster, it's a superstation

By Timothy Prickett Morgan <http://forms.theregister.co.uk/
mail_author/?story_url=/2009/11/12/
dell_cray_baby_super/>

Posted in HPC <http://www.theregister.co.uk/hardware/hpc/> , 12th November 2009 17:09 GMT

Supercomputer maker Cray today announced a reseller agreement with number two PC and server maker (in terms of shipments) Dell, which will see the latter company resell its own custom version of the entry-level Cray CX1 baby supercomputer. <snip>

Unlike the Cray boxes, which support both Windows and Linux stacks, the Dell variants will only run the Windows stack.

Tracy Walters, CISSP

Health Care Reform

2009-11-15T13:10:08-06:00

Health Care Reform

“More Americans now say it is not the federal government's responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage (50%) than say it is (47%). This is a first since Gallup began tracking this question”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124253/
Say-Health-Coverage-Not-Gov-Responsibility.aspx

“The reason behind this shift is unknown.” Heh.

mkr

Dr. Pournelle,

2009-11-15T13:20:01-06:00

Dr. Pournelle,

You said:

> I continue to wonder why we find NATO in our national interest.

Is this not a classic example of the Iron Law?

I have frequented this place (and subscribed) long enough to become quite familiar with the concept. I know you are, as you say, "dancing as fast as you can", but I think the topic a worth some sort of formal presentation, perhaps even a book. It might not not solve all the world's problems, but it would help people understand a lot of them better.

Steve Chu

I commented on this in View; you are correct, and I am collecting notes on the matter. I understand that the matter is larger than just foreign policy and alliances.

I saw this on slashdot.org this morning:

2009-11-15T13:10:06-06:00

I saw this on slashdot.org this morning:

http://www.theage.com.au/technology/sci-tech/
japan-eyes-solar-station-in-space-as-new-
energy-source-20091109-i50b.html

Maybe we'll actually see this happen one of these days.

Brian

Water on the Moon

2009-11-15T13:10:05-06:00

Water on the moon

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I will be fascinated to hear what you learned at your conference. If you are able and not TOO angry I'd also be interested in hearing how bad the flight was.

I'm sure you saw this: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/
LCROSS/main/prelim_water_results.html

Sincerely, Frank Luxem

The discovery is of major importance, and deserves far more contemplation and comment than I can give it under the circumstances. We'll return to it when I get more time. It certainly makes Lunar Colonies a great deal more practical; and that is exciting news.

Heinlein right again

NASA has found significant water on the moon. What's next? Ice miners?

Chuck

Sarah Palin's newest book is already a best seller and it is not yet in stores....

2009-11-15T19:50:01-06:00

Sarah Palin's newest book is already a best seller and it is not yet in stores. She is a strikingly accomplished young woman. She would not be my first choice for President of these United States, but that should not be taken as condemnation -- I wouldn't be my first choice either. I will get her book next week.

I will also note that the conviction rate in DC on drug charges is in essence...

2009-11-15T13:10:01-06:00

I will also note that the conviction rate in DC on drug charges is in essence zero in jury trials. Contemplate that when considering the upcoming show trials in New York. Contemplate the OJ Simpson trial in Los Angeles. The administration is bold.

I presume that the Administration and the public authorities of New York...

2009-11-15T12:50:01-06:00

I presume that the Administration and the public authorities of New York have considered the security implications of these show trials. We can all think of increasingly horrifying scenarios. I thought of one last night that I don't think I'll publish just yet. That's either squeamishness or arrogance, I guess: I really don't think that anything I can think of in the course of dinner with my son Phillip is beyond the ability of determined terrorists to come up with. They have a better idea of their resources and technologies than I do. Do not underestimate your enemies -- nor take counsel from your fears. How's that for ambiguities? Yet each principle is true and important to a stragtegist.

Regarding the show trial in New York...

2009-11-15T12:40:02-06:00

Regarding the show trial in New York: it is not obvious that this is the best way to dispose of the matter. If that sounds ambiguous not to say wishy-washy, perhaps: as I say, it is not obvious. The 9/11 attacks, like the Fort Hood Massacre, were acts of war against the United States. We do not traditionally deal with such enemies in the open courts. They are not citizens. Dr. Hassan is, and is entitled to his day in court -- in, my judgment, to a trial for treason. He can always be tried in Texas for murder. The Federal charge ought to be for levying war against the United States.

Saturday Mail Roundup 6

2009-11-14T00:50:09-06:00

Cormac McCarthy: 'If you think about some of the things that are being talked...

2009-11-14T00:50:08-06:00

Cormac McCarthy: 'If you think about some of the things that are being talked about by thoughtful, intelligent scientists, you realize that in 100 years the human race won't even be recognizable.'

<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704576204574529703577274572.html>

- Roland Dobbins

See also C. S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

Kindle at the University

2009-11-14T00:50:07-06:00

Kindle at the University

Schools shun Kindle, saying blind can't use it

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin
/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/11/10
/financial/f210203S00.DTL&tsp=1

Understand: the Kindle has a feature by which it can read the text. The schools are not buying Kindles because that feature is difficult to turn on by a blind person without help.

Left unsaid is what the two universities plan to do about textbooks.

Mike

: Purple Heart

2009-11-14T00:50:06-06:00

: Purple Heart

HI Jerry...to quote you...

"If it were treason then certainly the wounded deserve Purple Hearts..."

I agree...but I suspect the following is the sticking point...

"The fact that the proposed recipient was participating in direct or indirect combat operations is a necessary prerequisite..."

I contend that these were AT LEAST, Indirect Combat operations against an enemy combatant whether the participants knew it beforehand or not!

Let us hope logic prevails...

Richard Hakala Former SSGT of Marines

Would they have been eligible if their airplane had been shot down on the way to Afghanistan?

"A major eruption...

2009-11-14T00:50:05-06:00

"A major eruption, like the one 39,000 years ago, would leave large parts of Europe buried under a thick layer of ash."

<http://www.newscientist.com/article/
mg20427333.600-plan-to-pierce-heart-of-
urban-monster-volcano.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Then there's Yellowstone which could go off anytime in the next thousand years or so including tomorrow. We live a bit more fragile than one might think. So we worry about CO2 a lot.

And now for bed. I've posted a bunch of mail.

2009-11-14T00:50:03-06:00

And now for bed. I've posted a bunch of mail.

Dr. Pournelle,

2009-11-14T00:50:02-06:00

Dr. Pournelle,

You said:

> I continue to wonder why we find NATO in our national interest.

Is this not a classic example of the Iron Law?

Steve Chu

I expect I should do an essay on entangling alliances. It's one of the things that having platinum subscribers allows me to do. I will start putting together notes this weekend. Thank you.

I am about to go to bed. I'll be up at 0 dawn thirty for my flight to Washington...

2009-11-14T00:50:01-06:00

I am about to go to bed. I'll be up at 0 dawn thirty for my flight to Washington National. I've posted some mail.

It's apparently true, they've decided that Dr. Hassan's attack was not enemy action so the wounded are not eligible for the Purple Heart. If that wasn't enemy action, what is? This was an attack on US military personnel by a terrorist during a war on terrorists. It was an act of treason, and an act of war against the United States.

Friday Mail Roundup 9

2009-11-13T15:50:16-06:00

'America's alliances are no longer considered responses to security challenges....

2009-11-13T15:50:15-06:00

'America's alliances are no longer considered responses to security challenges. Instead, they have become ends in themselves.'

<http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4366298>

-- Roland Dobbins

I continue to wonder why we find NATO in our national interest.

Hasan's Treason,

2009-11-13T15:50:14-06:00

Hasan's Treason,

Jerry

Austin Bay agrees with you on Hassan's Treason:

<http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/20091110222819.aspx>

If it were treason then certainly the wounded deserve Purple Hearts...

"An Alleyway in Hell."

2009-11-13T15:50:13-06:00

"An Alleyway in Hell."

<http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/
2009/11/12/alleyway-hell?print>

- Roland Dobbins

: XM-25

2009-11-13T15:50:12-06:00

: XM-25

Looks like a cover to one of your books.

http://www.strategypage.com/
military_photos/20091112195914.aspx

John

Re: Balloon Boy vs. Martha Stewert

2009-11-13T15:50:11-06:00

Re: Balloon Boy vs. Martha Stewert

Dr. Pournelle,

you recently replied "There has to be a difference here. Not sure how to draw a legal distinction, but I know it's there."

but doesn't the intent, as defined by the initiation of the report, provide a glaring distinction between the two situations? The parents called the police (though, if I remember, they called the media first), willfully providing a set of specific information, and undoubtedly answering with additional information in response to the professional investigators' questions (the commonality with the M.S. case), but they initiated the whole charade willingly.

Martha Stewart, on the other hand, was answering questions in an investigation that she did NOT request, and for which she was uninterested in the outcome (well, until it came out as it did).

I am neither a legal professional nor a professional investigator, but I would clearly expect that an uninvolved "witness" would provide less "trustable" information just because it is from someone who has no vested interest. If it is important that the information be truly "trustable", then it becomes essential to impress this upon the "witness" with an oath of truth or some such methodology.

When, on the other hand, a parent initiates a report such as Balloon Boy, I would think that an oath of truthfulness, at least in a "good faith" sense of providing facts to the best of one's knowledge, particularly when involving the mobilization of public resources such as emergency services like a call to 911, can be implicit in the type of emergency situation.

Perhaps I am just too naive from a legal point of view for the complicated legalities of today?

Best regards

James Siddall jr

Falsification of GH Physics

2009-11-13T15:50:10-06:00

Falsification of GH Physics

Jerry P: I am usually not interested in the arguments on global warming but found that the paper on " Falsification of GH Physics" most enlightening. This is stuff from college thermodynamics that I remember and of course the arguments are correct. The proponents of the greenhouse will ignore the physics and more importantly the engineering involved. I would like to hear the greenhousers mention mechanical work in their arguments but they are totally into radiative energy transport and not interested in discussing the conversion of thermal energy into mechanical energy, which does work moving the atmosphere about. This of course is much less than that amount of work done moving the oceans. And on that topic, the probability that oceanic circulation in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans does more to affect the ice shelves etc., than any atmospheric affects is something that should be considered. But I am an engineer and look for specific heat and mechanical energy relative to the mobile parts of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. I also consider convective heat transfer, a difficult topic at best, to be more interesting in climate discussions than radiation. It is also important to consider what the millennium oceanic circulation cycle may do with respect to climate than almost anything that is currently being discussed. I agree that we must understand what is going on before taking precipitous actions, but that is not how politics work; or don't actually work.

CBS

HEALTH / RESEARCH | November 17...

2009-11-13T15:50:09-06:00

HEALTH / RESEARCH | November 17, 2009 Vital Signs: Risks: 5 Pathogens Linked to Risk for Stroke By RONI CARYN RABIN The lead author of a study said low-level infection and inflammation in vessel walls might be leading to disease.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/health/research/17risk.html?emc=eta1

As usual, there is mail, much of interest. I wasn't inspired to an essay today....

2009-11-13T15:50:06-06:00

As usual, there is mail, much of interest. I wasn't inspired to an essay today. It takes longer to pack and get ready for a trip than it used to.

Readers will recall that I recommend the Tibetan Rites (having learned them...

2009-11-13T15:50:05-06:00

Readers will recall that I recommend the Tibetan Rites (having learned them from Steve Barnes). Here is more on the subject:

Tibetan Rites 2

Jerry,

This video is great. She updates the exercises based on a new script. I think you will like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjtslbrFbLY

-- PDAB,

Josh

I always feel better for doing these, and this is the best demonstration I have ever seen. By a 73 year old lady.

I just heard a radio announcement that the wounded at Fort Hood will NOT receive...

2009-11-13T15:50:04-06:00

I just heard a radio announcement that the wounded at Fort Hood will NOT receive Purple Hearts. I do not have a source nor have I heard the arguments. I presume the argument is that they weren't deployed against an enemy, and Major Hassan was not an armed enemy of the United States. If so, this is more political correctness. Perhaps that decision can be overturned.

The White House has announced that the "Gitmo Five" charged with...

2009-11-13T15:50:03-06:00

The White House has announced that the "Gitmo Five" charged with responsibility in the destruction of the Twin Towers will be tried in Federal Court in New York City. We may now expect legal complexities as lawyers demand a change of venue (obvious), pleas as to jurisdiction, and no doubt many other arcane points. This will certainly expose a great number of practices to court study. We may expect this to go on for a long time. Is information obtained from water boarding subject to the "fruit of the poisoned tree" argument? Given the time they have been held, can anyone claim they have had any right to a speedy trial? Will any of this affect the trials of other detainees who won't be tried in open court?

It will take a while to transfer the suspects/detainees from the Guantanamo detention complex to somewhere in New York City, because so far there have been no formal charges: if they come under the jurisdiction of US Courts, they are subject to habeas corpus, and at the moment there is no response to that writ: they aren't charged with defined crimes, at least in the 9/11 attacks. There have to be indictments. Then there has to be discovery, hearings of motions, and all this in a short while unless the detainees waive their right to a speedy trial. Many of the overt actions committed in connection with the the 9/11 attack took place in foreign countries, where there's no possibility of compelling the attendance of witnesses they may want to call in their defense. If any of the evidence is from confessions, is that admissible? If the Department of Justice asks for the death penalty there is automatic appeals. Etc. The questions that can be raised seem endless. We live in interesting times.

The White House has also announced its determination to tackle the issue of comprehensive immigration reform next year. The intent is to ram something through before the 2010 Congressional elections, because after those elections the votes probably won't be there. Even California opposes a new amnesty. Remember Proposition 187? But Pelosi is sure they have the votes now, and This Time For Sure. Once again, we live in interesting times.

Purple Hearts and Tibetan Rites

2009-11-13T15:50:01-06:00

Rapid onset of ice sheets

2009-11-12T13:20:04-06:00

About thirty years ago when I was science correspondence for a national weekly newspaper, I came across a study of pollens and leaves retrieved from deep cores taken from Belgian lakes. They clearly showed that the last Ice Age came on quickly, with the area going from deciduous trees to under sheet ice in well under 100 years. Alas, I do not have my notes and references, and I haven't been able to track down the original study. I did read it. The principle author wsa a female Belgian scientist whose name I cannot recall. (I recall that the name was feminine, in part because women were less common in science in those days == there were panels at AAAS meetings to promote women in science, and I recall showing the paper to one of the members of such a panel at an annual AAAS meeting.)

I would like to find it again. There is increasing evidence that "tipping" to a warm climate doesn't happen fast, fast, fast, but the spiral from leafy trees to tens of meters of ice can be very rapid. That paper was my first indication of this. I'd like to find it again.

Thursday Mail Roundup 11

2009-11-12T13:10:21-06:00

Oath of Enlistment

2009-11-12T13:10:20-06:00

Oath of Enlistment

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I heartily agree with your "modest proposal" to renew the oath of enlistment before deploying. I'd like to suggest a modification. The Army (and I am sure the Marines and Navy) requires a review of the Code of Conduct (for POWs) to be given annually. Requiring the oath to be given at the same time will inhibit the temptation to "sign off" on the training ("Oh, Suuuure, Sergeant Major/Master Chief! We did that training...nudge, nudge, wink, wink"). Further, I'd require the oath be given by at least a captain or naval lieutenant (O3) or higher, and not be passed down to the most junior 2nd lieutenant or ensign. Troops need to be reminded of why they are ultimately serving. It isn't for a paycheck or the GI Bill! Also, giving the oath annually will involve all the troops, not just those deploying.

I was involved in countless NCO bull sessions regarding the status of conscientious objectors. The consensus was that such status was desirable and even necessary "in your day" because there was a draft and those opposed to war didn't have any other choice. But "in my day" and today, there is a simple choice: don't enlist! We regarded those who decided right before deployment that war was a Bad Thing in which they suddenly did not want to participate were nothing more than cowards who should at the very least be booted out on their kiesters with a Bad Conduct Discharge and no benefits. Hassan enlisted after Gulf War I. He knew very well that he could end up in a war against Muslims. He's had over 8 years since 9/11 to get out. But he took the training and took the paycheck. I advocate either a bullet or dancing Danny Deever for him. One friend thinks he should be tried under Texas law, where he stands a much better chance of actually being executed.

Thanks for listening to my ramblings; I'll pass your suggestion along to my comrades who are still on active duty.

Sincerely,

Frank Luxem SFC, USA, (Ret)

: Balloon Boy and punishments for False Statements to Officials?

2009-11-12T13:10:19-06:00

: Balloon Boy and punishments for False Statements to Officials?

Hi Jerry,

I have not written for a long time but the news of the Balloon Boy prosecution has moved me to action... at least moved my fingers to action of propelling electrons in your direction.

I saw this below story and remembered your earlier disgust that you could be punished for making a false statement when you had not been under oath. This prosecution would go against that. How would you deal with this kind of hoax?

(CNN) -- The Colorado parents in last month's notorious "balloon boy" case will plead guilty to offenses for creating a hoax that their son had flown away in a large balloon.

Richard and Mayumi Heene are to plead Friday morning in Larimer County Court, according to a statement issued by Richard Heene's attorney. Mayumi Heene is expected to plead guilty to an offense of false reporting to authorities, a misdemeanor of the lowest level, according to the attorney. Richard Heene is expected to plead guilty to a felony offense of attempting to influence a public servant.

Though the Heenes could receive jail time for the charges, the prosecutor has recommended probation, Richard Heene's attorney said.

We are former Iowans who sold the home, and are ocean cruisers living the dream in the islands aboard our 41 foot Catamaran, Angel Louise for the past three years.

Ed Kelly

Ed & Sue Kelly aboard USSV Angel Loiuse Currently anchored & floating happily at Salinas, PR

Your point is well made. Yet surely there is a difference between Martha Stewart who said, not under oath, that she hadn't done something that, had she done it, would not have been a crime; and the Heene's whose false report launched rescue aircraft and endangered lives. When one of my boys ran away (actually it was his birthday and he was going down to Buddy Brown's toy store because they had presents for 4 year olds on their birthdays, only he got lost) the police immediately began a search. If I had falsely reported that I'd expect to pay.

There has to be a difference here. Not sure how to draw a legal distinction, but I know it's there.

Fair winds and smooth seas!

15 hours.

2009-11-12T13:10:18-06:00

15 hours.

<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/
article-1226672/Asteroid-scrapes-past-
Earth-just-8-700miles-away--15-hours-warning.html>

--- Roland Dobbins

Space is large. Earth is a small target. Small is vulnerable. God helps those who help themselves. Of course a 7 meter rock isn't much of a threat, but we are finding there are a lot of such rocks out there.

Category error

2009-11-13T15:50:07-06:00

Category error

Hello Jerry,

Once again, Category Error raises its ugly head. The fact that a problem cannot be defined, for whatever reason, (in this case, political correctness) precludes a solution.

Quoting you: "Are all Muslims enemies of everyone not part of the House of Submission to Islam?"

The question of course is self answering. The murder/subjugation of non-Muslims is a (maybe THE) central tenet of the faith. In EVERY society around the world with a significant, but non-majority, percentage of Muslims, a noticeable subset of them take their religion seriously--and murder their non-Muslim neighbors with gay abandon. In Muslim majority societies, the Muslims simply impose sharia law and subjugate--or murder--non-Muslims.

Our government, in its infinite wisdom, is encouraging the Muslims within our borders to ''Be all that you can be, Muslimwise!", encouraging the importation of new Muslims, and subjugating our own culture to that of the Muslims when the two conflict.

We, in the immortal and deadly accurate words of someone or the other, are well and truly 'sowing the wind'. The harvest is predictable.

Bob Ludwick

OK, now this I would never have predicted, EVER

2009-11-12T13:10:16-06:00

OK, now this I would never have predicted, EVER

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/
prof_busted_in_columbia_gal_punch_
JmsXQ3NzaAt8uG6uUySGTN

A male Columbia University professor punched a woman in the face.

The male was black. The female was white. It occurred during a vocal dispute about race relations and "white privilege". It is not clear to me that this has anything whatsoever to do with the basic fact that a male professor hit a female in the face.

Jerry, in the world I grew up in, a university professor would die of shame before he would throw a punch in anger.

--John

I confess I was shocked as well. I recall some bitter debates in the academic senate, but they never came to the threat of blows.

: Hot CO2

2009-11-12T13:10:15-06:00

: Hot CO2

As for money and mouths, I'd say Gore was putting the latter where the former is.

Here's maybe some of the reason he's backed off slightly on the COO-COO causality bit: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0707.1161v4 Falsification of GH Physics

Brian H.

Are Black Hole Starships Possible?

2009-11-12T13:10:14-06:00

Are Black Hole Starships Possible?

<http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/
arxiv/pdf/0908/0908.1803v1.pdf>

--- Roland Dobbins

China Declares Space War Inevitable.

2009-11-12T13:10:13-06:00

China Declares Space War Inevitable.

<http://www.dodbuzz.com/
2009/11/04/china-declares-
space-war-inevitable/>

- Roland Dobbins

Apple Rejects My Caricature App | Tom's MAD Blog_PC run amuck

2009-11-12T13:10:12-06:00

Apple Rejects My Caricature App | Tom's MAD Blog_PC run amuck

Apple rejects an iPhone app for finding congress folk, because a caricature was done for each one, by an artist who works for MAD magazine. You may find it amusing, Tim.

http://www.tomrichmond.com/
blog/2009/11/09/apple-rejects-
my-caricature-app/

Tim

Wednesday Mail Roundup 9

2009-11-12T13:10:09-06:00

Be sure to Buy A Poppy

2009-11-12T13:10:08-06:00

Be sure to Buy A Poppy

I always do buy one, and within two hours its usually gone. I managed to keep mine long enough this year to be wearing it for Prince Charles visit. Apparently the Royal Consort is descended from the first PM of Canada, who just happened to have his familial state in Hamilton, not bad for a jumped up Scottish Baron in the Provinces. C’est le Guerre I guess.

Regardless I usually try to talk to the Veteran who is selling the things. This year I ran into a Korean War veteran, something I haven’t found since High School. Sadly this one was a bit shell shocked, and wasn’t able to give me much information. But last year I had to justify my interest in history to two members of the Navy, who both were in the Med during the big one. Got to find out that many of their friends lost their teeth to the water they were drinking. It was a good commentary since I was reading about Taranto and Swordfishes.

David March

Consumer Electronics on airplanes: final

2009-11-12T13:10:10-06:00

We have a great deal of mail regarding consumer electronics and airplanes. Begin with a correction

A correction regarding the history of portable game consoles.

The Atari Lynx and the Nintendo GameBoy were both released 20 years ago, in 1989; the Lynx never really took off, and the GameBoy took off in the early 1990s. Prior to that, there were a few primitive things like the Atari TouchMe (basically, a crude handheld predecessor version of the once-ubiqitous Simon electronic game) and those dumb LED-based 'football' games.

--- Roland Dobbins

Hello Dr Pournelle,

In the consumer electronics on airliners discussion, Roland Dobbins says that he doubt the story of "Alan" attributing a plane RF interference incident to a hand-held game console. Dobbins assures us that there was no hand-held game machine 20 years ago.

This contradicts my memories of getting a Microvision console around 1980, in my teens. I did a quick search, and sure enough, Milton Bradley did indeed release the Microvision cartridge-based, hand-held LCD console in 1979 (http://www.handheldmuseum.com/MB/uVUS.htm). I doubt it was designed with any kind of RF shielding in mind.

To give you an example of how poorly shielded consumer electronics was back in the day, I'll refer you to to 8-bit computer folklore of the late 70s. Many computer magazines published stories about how to use an AM radio to "listen" to your computer's CPU. To do so, you simply had to put an AM radio received near a TRS-80, for example, and tune it to long wave. In spite of the low CPU frequencies of the days (less than 2 MHz typically), notable RF noise could be detected up in the tens of MHz from several feet away. Most machines radiated harmonics generously. Plugging extensions (that is, PCB boards) into hobbyist machines increased the RF noise even more.

In today's ham radio forums, it's common to find threads about how to find and suppress sources of interferences (QRN) around the house. Consumer electronics is by far the worst offender.

And yet, these days, consumer electronics is designed with FCC specs in mind. Cheap knock-offs and defective models can make RF noise much worse. An apparently insignificant defect in shielding can turn a cable (such as an earphone) into an RF-emitting antenna. So as an engineer who occasionally battled with the RF noise issue myself, I understand why airlines ask people to turn off their electronics. Meanwhile, as a passenger, I grumble and curse these overly cautious policies, of course.

--Fred Mora

Jerry,

I know of at least one cargo aircraft (I won't say which one) where cell phones of one specific carrier set off the Fire Warning signal in the cockpit.

Before I install any system that goes on an aircraft we have to perform very expensive certification tests, and sometimes you get interference anyway. Consumer electronics clearly are not tested to the rigors of the Mil. Standards, so I would certainly expect them to be far more problematic.

Mark E. Horning, Physicist, L-3 Communications

Dr. P,

I must respectfully disagree with Mr. Dobbins: There is one immensely significant difference between electronics during takeoff/landing and at cruising altitude and that is the proximity of the ground. Any pilot will vouch that a brief disruption of flight systems is much more survivable when the ground is at least a minute or two away versus right flippin' there.

That said, I think that a couple of other data are worth mentioning:

1. As I recall, the original requirement to turn off cell phones on takeoff and landing had a ground-based rationale entirely separate from the whole interference issue: cell phones whizzing past towers at triple-digit speeds caused problems for the cell networks trying to track which tower was the current best for contact with the subscriber. 2. The last time I looked, avoiding failure with a worst-case option of failing to a safe mode is a fundamental design tenet for flight-control systems. Flight electronics, by necessity, must be able to continue operation in an RFI-unfriendly environment. I would think milliwatt-strength emissions by consumer electronics would not hold a candle to the electrical surges induced by high-powered radar, in-flight static electricity and cross-airframe voltage differentials, not to mention cross-talk between cables (with the caveat that a low-power emitter in close proximity to a wire run can trump a high-power emitter a few miles away).

On a totally unrelated front, I suspect that there was an additional mindset which clouded the Army's treatment of Major Hasan. As you may recall, each time our military has been mobilized to go in harm's way, there have been service members who resisted deploying because they had thought enlisting (or ROTC) was just a good way to get some marketable job skills or get their college education paid for. Many folks (myself included) become rather pig-headed in dealing with these folks, taking an almost knee-jerk stance of "You took the king's shilling, now you get to earn it." I would note that the Army's personnel bureaucracy seems almost hard-wired to take that stance, especially after all the arguments from folks who got caught up in stop-loss orders. This would mean that security measures meant to weed out potential infiltrators will inherently be resisted by measures meant to smack down the duty-dodgers. In that clash, we can only hope that somebody exercises intelligent discretion (rare as that commodity has been for much of this war).

Watching poppies grow,

Bill Clardy

And indeed I remember using my office radio to get the sound effects for a Star Trek game from an S-100 Buss computer. Phasers, and torpedoes.

I agree with your conclusions. The probabilities of significant interference are small, but the consequences could be large. The ritual of turning off electronics before takeoff and on landing approaches is a small inconvenience, a minor irritation compared to the many other annoyances of travel today.

In any event I I think we have pretty well exhausted this discussion topic.

I've been working hard on fiction. Progress is being made. Meanwhile...

2009-11-12T13:20:03-06:00

I've been working hard on fiction. Progress is being made. Meanwhile, there is mail on many subjects.

Dr. Pournelle, a trivial correction...

2009-11-12T13:10:03-06:00

Dr. Pournelle, a trivial correction: I believe you meant recently to refer to the A-10 "Warthog" aircraft (as you have many times in the past), not the Aardvark (which apparently was the official name for the F-111).

Oops. Thanks. I've fixed it.

You can't assume that every Muslim is a terrorist. That's obvious. Unless...

2009-11-12T13:10:02-06:00

You can't assume that every Muslim is a terrorist. That's obvious. Unless you begin looking at the definition of "Muslim." But I said all that yesterday. Hassan had a religious crisis; apparently he resolved it by deciding that a true Muslim must become part of jihad. I do not think the nation is well served by ignoring that.

Ideas have consequences.

Facing the threat

2009-11-12T13:10:01-06:00

Are Too Many Students Going to College?

2009-11-12T13:10:07-06:00

Are Too Many Students Going to College?

Includes comments from Charles Murray:

<http://chronicle.com/article/
Are-Too-Many-Students-Going-to/49039/>

-- Roland Dobbins

Are Too Many Students Going to College?

2009-11-11T14:40:30-06:00

Are Too Many Students Going to College?

Among those answering yes is Charles Murray, political scientist and scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, who is quoted as saying, "The four-year residential program leading to a B.A. is the wrong model for a large majority of young people." Mr. Murray argues that "only 10 to 15 percent of the nation's youth possess" the linguistic and mathematical ability to do well in a traditional college program.

http://thechoice.blogs.
nytimes.com/2009/11/10/too-many/

Bill Shields

We reviewed Murray's book some time ago. It seems obvious to me that half the children are below average, and the traditional college education assumes students of at least above average ability. In fact it assumes top 15% or so. Our present practice does not well serve the above average students, which is a waste of intellectual resources. But we've said all that before.

: Public domain -

2009-11-11T14:40:29-06:00

: Public domain -

Hi Jerry,

You'd wrote "I would say that once one has accepted the protection of copyright or patent, one has the obligation to allow the property to become public domain at some point. Once published you may not unpublish..."

What about limited editions, where the book only has a certain number of copies published in order to create a higher value? This is particularly true of art books, where the artist only produces a certain number, signs them as works of art, and sells them at a premium.

That's the challenge, all the special cases, and fiddly little exceptions. My preference is a modification of your starting point: Copyright is absolute, including the ability to restrict access to works, and to choose to not publish again, for some period of years after the death of the author (perhaps as little as 25, perhaps as much as 75 - we can debate that separately). That does raise the sticky issue about corporate owned/created copyrights, since corporations never really die - perhaps 75 years from first publication, or 25 years from last publication. Until that time, the work is not in public domain - if it's not available, then it's not available - sorry Google.

Now I don't expect that to happen, as Google has good lobbyists (and yes, for the record, I do think that what they are doing is evil, immoral, and nothing short of theft). At the very least, I would establish a trust fund for each work, with some reasonable level of royalties paid into that, and held in trust for the copyright holder or their heirs to claim. Place a statute of limitations of 10 years after the copyright expires, at which point the royalties are donated to the library of congress.

Cheers,

Doug

Even the government health plans have troubles these days -

2009-11-11T14:40:28-06:00

Even the government health plans have troubles these days -

http://www.govexec.com/story_
page.cfm?articleid=43998&dcn=todaysnews

And for the record, I pay a third of the cost up to a certain amount and all of the additional cost over a preset dollar limit. Yes, they tend to be good plans. Yes, I have access at a reasonable cost when many don't. But I DO pay premiums plus copays. I also make quite a bit less money per year than I have been offered by companies outside of government but stay because of the health benefits and pre-existing conditions in my family. (Don't kid yourself about COBRA laws and the like...Pre-Existing Conditions DO make a serious difference in a family's ability to get care for those conditions at a cost that doesn't require every penny of the family income.)

State of the Climate

2009-11-11T14:40:27-06:00

State of the Climate:

Jerry,

Dave

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=national&year=2009&month=10&submitted=Get+Report

National Overview:

I would not venture any strong conclusions from these data. My fear is of the world depicted in Fallen Angels. The book was a satirical romance, but the climate scenario was fairly realistic. My preference is to find out what's likely before spending all we have on trying to fix something. It's best to save and apply fixes to known problems; he who defends everything defends nothing, and societies that try to prepare for every possible alternative generally end bankrupt and able to prepare for nothing. If we spend all we have on carbon taxes, and cripple the economy in the bargain, what will we do when the Ice Age comes back? Ah, well.

Note that Fallen Angels was optimistic about the space program...

Melting ice sheets create new carbon sink, say boffins,

Jerry

Ice retreat produces new carbon sinks:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/11/10/ice_sheet_melt_carbon_sink/

homeostasis in action.

Perhaps; the question is, does CO2 have much effect? Well, we know it does, but does more CO2 have more effect? How much CO2 has to come out of the atmosphere to have an effect? Do we know more than Arrhenius did in 1896 when he did the calculations on the back of an old envelope? We should have better data, but it's not clear that the celebrity scientists and their sponsors pay much attention to data now.

Solar Sails

2009-11-11T14:40:26-06:00

Setting Sail Into Space, Propelled by Sunshine

About a year from now, if all goes well, a box about the size of a loaf of bread will pop out of a rocket some 500 miles above the Earth. There in the vacuum it will unfurl four triangular sails as shiny as moonlight and only barely more substantial. Then it will slowly rise on a sunbeam and move across the stars.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/science/space/10solar.html

Bill Shields

: Maybe we can sail to Mars one day? -

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE5A90EB20091110

I don't think that light sails are necessarily Crazyeddie. I hope this one works.

R, Rose

We can all hope it works. Mike Flynn has a number of stories about an interplanetary civilization that uses light sails.

Dissent

2009-11-11T14:40:24-06:00

Marketing skills

Dear Jerry:

As a former Vice President of Sales and Marketing I must take strong exception to Alan's crack that "People go into Marketing" because they have no useful skills." You can have the best product in the world and if no one buys it, you go broke. Keeping firms from going broke , especially in this economy, is, I submit, not just a useful skill but a critical one. Everybody sells. Everybody.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

I suspect your leg came off in his hand. I doubt anyone truly believes that sales and marketing aren't useful.

I, too, am a licensed amateur radio operator (KB4BED is my callsign), and I've been involved in RF professionally for data comms for the last 25 years or so.

And I must respectfully disagree with Mr. Horr. There is *nothing* different about the electronics during takeoff/landing vs. cruising which justifies making folks turn off their electronic devices - and the evidence is quite clear on this point, since a heck of a lot of people *don't turn off their electronics* because either a) they know this is nonsense and rightly ignore it or b) they don't know or have forgotten that said electronics are enabled in the first place.

There are dozens and dozens of mobile phones powered on during almost every commercial airline flight in the world, as most folks think that blanking the screen or locking the UI equates to turning it off, as do the flight attendants - and yet, aircraft are not dropping from the skies.

These phones aren't quiescent, either; they've mobile radios on, they have Bluetooth enabled, they have WiFi enabled, all actively looking for base stations/paired contacts/WiFi LANS to join. Not to mention the loads of laptops with WiFi and Bluetooth enabled, PSPs, and so forth. Again, the fact that the airlines have before and will again provide wireless Internet access during flight, and soon will provide airborne mobile phone service, gives the lie to their assertions.

Not to mention the hundreds of private aircraft flying around every day, from Piper Cubs to privately-owned 737s - they aren't falling from the skies, either, nor are the passengerless cargo flights. Heck, those Northeastern airline pilots who overshot their destination last week were dorking around with their laptop *in the cockpit*, were they not?

It's all nonsense, about control and rent-seeking rather than public safety. As are most rules and regulations.

'Alan' is telling tall tales.

---

I call BS on his story, too. I do datacomm for a living, including lots of RF in both licensed and unlicensed spectrum, globally, have done so for 25 years, and am also a licensed Amateur Radio operator. The two incidents 'Alan' is describing are bogus, because a) 20 years ago, there was no portable video game player which would've been on and operated in an MD-80 in the first place, and b) there is absolutely no piece of datacomm equipment one can hook into a laptop computer which, either directly or harmonics can interfere with standard aircraft voice or nav comms, and c) they wouldn'tve been able to identify it in the first place unless they grounded the plane and brought in specially-trained FCC folks with special equipment, of whom there aren't very many in the country and who most assuredly wouldn't be hanging around at that particular airport at that particular time.

---- Roland Dobbins

I confess curiosity as to how a laptop in standby mode stored in an overhead compartment was detected. Of course it would be easy on CSI or NCIS Los Angeles, but I don't know how to do it in the real world.

Consumer electronics on airplanes

2009-11-11T14:40:22-06:00

Consumer Electronics on Airliners

Jerry,

I am retired pilot, both from the Air Force and then a major US Airline, a ham radio operator with an Amateur Extra license, and along the way a PhD physicist who did his dissertation on high power RF heating techniques in fusion plasmas. You learn a lot about shielding doing that. ;)

Let me assure you that anyone who claims the ban on consumer electronics is JUST about protecting profits is speaking in ignorance. (Remember, people go into marketing because they have no useful skills, and are often oblivious to technical realities.) On two occasions, I experienced interference with aircraft systems which were traced to a piece of equipment in the cabin. The first was a video game in an MD-80 about 20 years ago, and the second was 5 years ago, just before I retired, in a brand new B-737-800. That was caused by a computer in an overhead bin which was in standby mode, not off as directed. The owner ignored the instructions because he "knew it was all nonsense since planes don't use radio for navigation any more." He did not go to jail, but he did find another way home.

This is a complicated issue, and it is getting more critical with the transition to digital controls. On the one hand, airliners are getting better avionics. On the other, consumer electronics with internal RF systems are now ubiquitous, and many of the indistinguishable gray and black market knockoffs radiate 10-20 db or more above specifications. On the gripping hand, though rarely, interference is found between properly operating consumer electronics and properly operating avionics by technically qualified industry researchers. This usually results in changes to the avionics specifications.

So please, don't subject your fellow passengers to a test flight they did not sign up for.

Alan

Missions and USAF

2009-11-11T14:50:01-06:00

Thank you, sir.

"The criticism is that USAF insists on keeping the ground support mission while it really doesn't want it. Had USAF handed over the Warthogs after the First Gulf War there there wouldn't be so much glee among the brown shoes when the blue suits take one.

I am no fan of turning the military mission over to legions of robots. I am a fan of giving the ground support mission to the Army."

Thank you, sir. It's the 'fighter pilot' attitude and reluctance to acknowledge that air to air combat is no longer logical (or, even that it exists!) where the rub lies. AND, my point is that it doesn't take a 'super-educated and trained on-board pilot' to do the job. Ground support is the current raison d'tere for aircraft - manned (in fact, I PREFER manned aircraft for ground support missions) or not. Do we need some capability for air defense? Absolutely! Aircraft made battleships obsolete (though I still support their use as fire support platforms - ironically, even more so due the reluctance the the USAF to use their aircraft in that role!) and long-range rockets (air to air and ground to air) have made air to air combat obsolete. It is past time for the US Air Force to change their priority. And, for the record, even though satellites are a means of 'robotic' communication, it's also true that AWACS and local communication nodes are also means of same. UAVs are not wholly dependent on satellite communication. Additionally, increasingly robots ARE being used by ground forces - it's only a matter of time that tanks are remotely controlled.

s/f

David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Collector of Hot Sauce; Avoider of Yard Work

BB's were very effective anti-aircraft platforms in WW II, particularly against kamikaze attacks. The sheer amount of steel they could put in the air was effective. They could carry a lot of both guns and ammo.

Warthogs were very effective in the First Gulf War. But USAF doesn't want them, and becoming a Warthog pilot is a career ender in USAF; yet they won't let go of the mission. If that means that USAF must be abolished and be split between the Army and the Navy, then that should be done; a Service that will not perform a critical mission but obstructs others from performing it has lost its reason for existence.

Fearful Tolerance

2009-11-11T14:40:17-06:00

Maj. Hasan even gave a PowerPoint presentation to Army doctors foreshadowing his intentions in June of 2007.

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/09/
AR2009110903618.html>

Roland Dobbins

Fearful Tolerance

You write: "It is not stupid to pay attention to probabilities. It is certainly less stupid to attempt to confiscate a retired general's Medal of Honor at an airport in the name of political correctness."

And it seems to me that this promise--that we would have effective enforcement if only prima-facie harmless people submitted to indignities--this promise isn't even being kept. Uniformed police officers take toys from toddlers, but we're too scared of being called racists to kick a religious-freak Arab out of the Army or take guns away from a crazy Asian student.

When did we elect officials that were so scared of being hated? Oh wait, that's right. We didn't *elect* any of these people. They were hired by someone who was hired by someone who was...well, you know the rest. Congress has ceded its governing authority to the unelected regulatory bureaucracy of the Executive Branch.

-- Mike T. Powers

extra scrutiny

It seems to me that the type of people who deserve extra scutiny are also situational. But I can honestly say I'd be hopping mad if the DoE had (strctly hypothetically here) ignored the nuke power plant inspector who was involved in a far-out group that believed that such plants would be the doom of us all for years, had given several odd speeches on how horrible they are were, and then went on a destructive spree either at Sandia. Seriously, couldn't you see the signs that this was NOT the sort of person who should be allowed access to the sort of people whose immediate destruction he is exhorting? If I were to say such nonsense about, say, HR folks, I'd be fired for cause so fast the paper would be singed. Which is, after all, the way it should be.

The Iron Law at work

2009-11-11T14:40:15-06:00

Iron Law at work

Jerry,

Here is a link to an excellent article about the problems with high tax/high service states. The short version: you never get what you pay for. Much of this article discusses how government bureaucrats look out for themselves at the expense of the work they are supposed to be doing. This article is explanation of the "Iron Law" at work:

"Whatever theoretical claims are made for imposing high taxes to provide generous government benefits, the practical reality is that these public goods are, increasingly, neither public nor good: their beneficiaries are mostly the service providers themselves, and their quality is poor."

http://www.city-journal.org/2009/19_4_california.html

I found this article at the Volokh Conspiracy. Two contributors to that blog will be at the Federalist Society Lawyer's Convention in Washington, DC this week. I wish I could be there too. d

Yours very truly,

Hugh Greentree

Time paradox?

2009-11-11T14:40:13-06:00

Hadron collider

The theory about the Collider sabotaging itself from the future to preserve the timestream is getting less funny all the time...

http://www.popsci.com/science/article
/2009-11/bread-loving-bird-shuts-down-lhc

Tom Brosz

Effect of ebooks on reading

2009-11-11T14:40:10-06:00

E-Books Impact on reading

Jerry,

Re - ebooks , and the idea that people are reading more. I respect Tracy Walters view that ebooks are not having a significant impact on the quantity of reading, but his perspective is that of an avid reader. There is not much opportunity for heavy readers to read more. However, for the casual reader, the impact can be tremendous. Prior to purchasing a Kindle, I averaged 5 - 10 books per year. I am now Reading 8 - 10 books per MONTH. And I am not a fast reader. But the key is easy access. I use my Kindle to read various blogs, including this site. When an interesting book is referenced it is so easy to acquire the referenced book. In addition, my 18 year old son is linked to my Kindle account with his IPhone. He reads anything I point him to. In addition, he has taken advantage of the public domain and is working his way through the classics! His increase in reading is proportional to mine, perhaps even greater as he is a much faster reader than I am.

In my neighborhood the increase has been noticeable as well. There is much more discussions about various books people have read electronically. The recurring theme is access. When traveling, many of us would grab a book to carry and read, but few people want to carry more than two books. With the Kindle that limitation is gone.

Amazon's estimate of a three fold increase seems very reasonable to me.

Two questions for you. One, as my interest in reading has increased, the slowness of my reading is bothering me much more. Any recommendations for an adult to improve his reading speed?

Two, I would like to introduce my son to your SF writings. Can you suggest which books of yours he should start with?

Thank you again for your efforts,

Herb Mueller

I read slower every year. It seems to come with the years. Sorry.

I'd say begin with Starswarm, then The Mote in God's Eye. Then Exile -- and Glory! That ought to get him started.

Some Stories Continue to Unwind

2009-11-11T14:40:25-06:00

Some Stories Continue to Unwind

Three more drug advisors throw in the towel <http://tinyurl.com/y9sobpz> <http://tinyurl.com/ybetou7> <http://tinyurl.com/ydxe5wj> <http://tinyurl.com/yknvkf6> . You have to read the tealeaves to understand what's going on; however, it takes a *lot* of abuse to get an academic to resign from those committees.

BBC plans to use DRM on broadcast TV rejected <http://tinyurl.com/y8l85fq>

Big Brother database rejected <http://tinyurl.com/yzartvx>

Government management by targets causes hospitals to lose track of the ball <http://tinyurl.com/ybb9suq>

Student loans still stalled <http://tinyurl.com/yzecbp3>

UK libel tourism <http://tinyurl.com/yjl36t5>

-- "If academic research is not devoted to finding the truth, it is a form of propaganda, and not necessarily to be preferred to other forms, much cheaper and perhaps more persuasive." (Conrad Russell 1993)
Harry Erwin

Loyalty Oath

2009-11-11T12:40:03-06:00

Loyalty Oath

Mr Pournelle,

While there may be some benefit in having the military periodically repeat their oath of enlistment, I fear that against this particular set of enemies it would be pretty fruitless, just as it would have been during the cold war against our communist foes. Where communists used the tactic of "maskirovka", Muslims are fully capable of lying to advance their cause, and in fact have a religious justification in the concept of ""Taqiyyay" a full explanation of which can be found at Jihad Watch at:

http://www.islam-watch.org/Warner/
Taqiyya-Islamic-Principle-Lying-for-Allah.htm

I become more and more convinced that Islam is not compatible with western civilization.

Regards,

Boris Berejan MD

Former USAF Maj

I agree that renewal of loyalty oaths will not disclose dedicated enemy agents. In the case of those with reservations and doubts such as Hassan, it may be useful. It would also be cheap, and may have some positive benefits for most troops. I do not see any major downside.

Thank you for your service.

Veterans Day

2009-11-11T12:40:01-06:00

Veterans Day

Be sure to buy a poppy.

I do not care to comment on Obama's speech at Fort Hood. I suppose it was the best his team could write, but I do not think the speech was of great comfort or inspiration to the Legions.

It is time for our walk.

unpopular new theory

2009-11-11T14:40:21-06:00

unpopular new theory

Which is correct - Dark Matter or MOND? Lower in the article it implies an unpopular new theory up against a popular established but not proven theory.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id
/33681096/ns/technology_and_
science-space/

“My belief today is that it’s better to have the Americans as...

2009-11-11T14:40:19-06:00

“My belief today is that it’s better to have the Americans as an enemy rather than as a friend, because you cannot be trusted.”

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/11/16/091116fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all

-- Roland Dobbins

The only way to win in the Afghan War is a 20 year commitment of blood and treasure. Can / will the United States make such a commitment?

Flu Assessment

2009-11-10T17:40:06-06:00

Flu Self-Assessment Licensed from Emory University

https://h1n1.cloudapp.net/fluquiz.aspx

John

If you think you have flu, this may help you decide.

Loyalty and The House of Submission

2009-11-10T20:40:01-06:00

Loyalty and the Dar al-Islam

Are all Muslims enemies of everyone not part of the House of Submission to Islam?

In one sense this is a very silly question: that is, anyone who cares to can find someone who calls himself a Muslim and who is generally agreed to be a Muslim who does not consider everyone not part of the Dar al-Islam to be an enemy to be put to tribute or converted to Islam. Moreover, it's not hard to find honorably discharged Muslim veterans of the US Armed forces, and with a bit more effort one can find heroes among their number. They don't consider the rest of us enemies to be converted by force. The question is mindless and stupid.

And yet, then the question becomes, are those people Muslims? Surely another silly question? They say they are. Their friends say they are. They attend services at mosques, some faithfully and some occasionally, some hardly at all. Surely, then, they are Muslims as certainly as any church going Catholic or for that matter a Catholic who hasn't been to confession or mass in thirty years but insists he is still a member of the church is Christian?

But it all depends on how you define "Muslim" and even more importantly, how the Muslim scholars who define Islam define Muslim; and there the question is not so silly. The Koran is explicit on the subject: all true Muslims must make war on the unbelievers and force them either to convert or to pay tribute. There can be truce in that war, but never peace. This is the nature of Islam. In other words, if you are not at war with the unbelievers you are not a Muslim, and thus the answer to our first question is "yes." Perhaps it is not a silly question at all.

Of course many religions have exhortations and commands that may remain on paper but aren't taken very seriously. The Old Testament condemns witches to death. Other sections seem to promise true believers immunity to poisons and the stings of serpents. Few take any of this seriously. Why be concerned about such commands in the Koran? How can that be different?

Alas, it is different, because while I know of few important Christian officials who command the faithful to slay witches, there are numbers of highly regarded Muslim scholars who command jihad against the infidel, and a very great many people take them seriously. Ask Salman Rushdie about that; a fatwah -- a religious edict -- from the supreme Ayatollah of Iran proclaimed it a duty of all true believers either to kill Rushdie or to point him out to someone who could if you couldn't do it yourself. Note also that this isn't a story from a novel. The ayatollahs who issue proclamations concerning the duty of jihad against unbelievers are not part of a secret organization, and the orders are not given in secret to an albino monk. It's all quite open and public. And sometimes there are real consequences, as we saw at Fort Hood.

The question becomes, what can be done? The facts remain. Most Muslims are not terrorists -- but a reasonably large number of Muslims including some very high ranking scholars consider that anyone not a terrorist is not a Muslim, and that anyone who thinks he is a Muslim must take this question seriously. This may well be what happened to Major Hassan. By the standards of some highly respected scholars, he was a heretic if not an apostate, and the only remedy was to join the jihad against the unbelievers who were making war on his fellow religionists. I suppose an equivalent would be a protestant infantry officer in the ranks of Tilley's army during the Thirty Years War. A more modern case might be if the United States found itself on the other side in a war with Israel. Many Americans, both Jewish and Christian, would find that they were forbidden by God to take part in any such exercise.

Interestingly, as I write this, I find that Hassan's Power Point presentation to fellow officers in a formal conference over a year ago was an exposition on the Koran as it affects Muslims in the US Army, including the question of just what is Islam. He took the question seriously. One wonders if others might.

What should be done? I don't know the answer to this question. I do think it's important that we find out. I do have a modest proposal. When troops are to be deployed, there is a long check list of things that one must do. They include making a will, naming a beneficiary of one's insurance, being certain that one's shot record is up to date, having one's dental records certified, and a number of such mundane issues. I propose that we add one: that each soldier pledge allegiance, and renew the oath of enlistment, both verbally by swearing before an officer, and by signing it. This wouldn't take five minutes -- it's not as if you're asking the soldier to do anything not previously done -- and the cost of adding this to the deployment activities would be trivial (after all, they're all being paid, and the whole checkout is a 'hurry up and wait' process and always has been). There's no additional records to be kept, just another box to be checked off.

Would requiring a renewal of the oath have any effect? On most troops, not at all, of course. It would be just one more damned thing to get done. On some, though, there definitely would be an effect. Those who take oaths and religious duties seriously would have to think hard about their duties. Hassan would have taken it seriously: he openly advocated that Muslims be allowed conscientious objector status in the Iraq and Afghani wars -- incidentally, a position that isn't automatically absurd. (In my day, conscientious objector conscripts sometimes ended up as medics, and more than one performed heroically in that task.) Hassan might have expressed some concern and reservation when required to renew his oath, and he might have refused to do it: which should have been a significant sign that more investigation was needed.

That's not enough, of course. But it's a start. We need to take the question seriously. Major Hassan did.

Twenty Years After the Fall | STRATFOR

2009-11-11T14:40:18-06:00

Twenty Years After the Fall | STRATFOR

Jerry

Stratfor has an interesting update on Russia:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091109_russian_dilemma

Atheism as a Stealth Religion.

2009-11-11T14:40:16-06:00

Atheism as a Stealth Religion.

<http://scienceblogs.com/evolution/
2009/10/atheism_as_a_stealth_religion.php>

- Roland Dobbins

And in other news, the niece of the Mayor of Cleveland is said to have lived...

2009-11-10T17:50:01-06:00

And in other news, the niece of the Mayor of Cleveland is said to have lived with the mass murderer, in the midst of all that smell. I await further news. With 'bated breath.

Now the record comes out. Even the FBI became concerned -- nothing was done...

2009-11-10T17:40:05-06:00

Now the record comes out. Even the FBI became concerned -- nothing was done as the evidence that Hassan was dangerous mounted. What would Israel have done in this case?

British Navy was within 50 feet of Somali Pirates as they Kidnapped British...

2009-11-15T13:10:04-06:00

British Navy was within 50 feet of Somali Pirates as they Kidnapped British Citizens

http://www.google.com/
hostednews/afp/article/
ALeqM5j26c2x65W3AFj
KMNqMZv9OTKJqEQ

Neil

rapid ice ages

2009-11-14T00:50:04-06:00

rapid ice ages

Jerry,

This isn't it item you cited but is immediately relevant regarding rapid onset of ice ages:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/
mg20427344.800-mini-ice-age-
took-hold-of-europe-in-months.html

JUST months - that's how long it took for Europe to be engulfed by an ice age. The scenario, which comes straight out of Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, was revealed by the most precise record of the climate from palaeohistory ever generated.

Around 12,800 years ago the northern hemisphere was hit by the Younger Dryas mini ice age, or "Big Freeze". It was triggered by the slowdown of the Gulf Stream, led to the decline of the Clovis culture in North America, and lasted around 1300 years.

Until now, it was thought that the mini ice age took a decade or so to take hold, on the evidence provided by Greenland ice cores. Not so, say William Patterson <http://geochemistry.usask.ca/bill.html> of the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Canada, and his colleagues.

The group studied a mud core from an ancient lake, Lough Monreagh, in western Ireland. Using a scalpel they sliced off layers 0.5 to 1 millimetre thick, each representing up to three months of time. No other measurements from the period have approached this level of detail.

Carbon isotopes in each slice revealed how productive the lake was and oxygen isotopes gave a picture of temperature and rainfall. They show that at the start of the Big Freeze, temperatures plummeted and lake productivity stopped within months, or a year at most. "It would be like taking Ireland today and moving it up to Svalbard" in the Arctic, says Patterson,<snip>

this aritcle seems opportune considering you just asked for help finding the old article that may have started the whole research angle.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/
mg20427344.800-mini-ice-age-took-
hold-of-europe-in-months.html

good luck on your trip.

: Belgian Scientist - Ice, Pollen, Lakes 1979

Is this it?

Nature, Genievieve Wollard 18 October 1979

Janet

That's it. I knew I hadn't dreamed it.

The curse of the book 'Fallen Angles'?

Projection of climate changes of the last 4century and past 500 years into the future. The black curve is temperature variation from 1900 to 2009; the red line is the IPCC projected warming from the IPCC website in 2000; the blue curves are several possible projections of climate change to 2040+ based on past global cooling periods (1945-1977; 1880 to 1915; and 1790 to 1820). The lack of sun spots during the past solar cycle has surpassed all records since the Dalton Minimum and some solar physicists have suggested we may be headed for a Dalton or Maunder type minimum with severe cooling.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/
Newgeologicevidenceofpastperiods
ofoscillatingclimate.pdf

Joe

The wrath of the legions

2009-11-13T15:50:08-06:00

The wrath of the legions

Sir,

I direct your attention to the following article in realclearpolitics.com:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles
/2009/11/12/connect_the_dots__redux_99127.html

Bill Kristol predicts that the author of the piece (a US Army major) will probably suffer more professionally than anyone else involved. Except for the shooter himself, of course. I concur.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

I expect Kristol is right. At some point we have to address this.

: Muslims and movies

From a review of the movie “2012”: <http://www.mtv.com/movies/
news/articles/1626159/story.jhtml>

“While the snickering fat cats get ready to split, the unticketed masses are deep in prayer. The director's heart is probably not with them, though -- not after he's blown away a Buddhist monastery, the Sistine Chapel and the giant Jesus statue overlooking Rio de Janeiro. (Not that Emmerich holds nothing sacred. In an online interview <http://scifiwire.com/
2009/11/5-best-things-2012s-direc.php> , he's quoted as saying that he'd wanted to wipe out a sacred Islamic shrine, too, but then thought ... maybe not: "You can [let] Christian symbols fall apart, but if you would do this with an Arab symbol, you would have ... a fatwa. So I kind of left it out.")

This really pisses me off. Our PC attitudes about a religion that wants to kill or subjugate us are having a subliminal effect on our society that we will regret. Here’s a case of a movie director changing his approach because he is afraid he’ll be murdered by Muslims. The example of Salmon Rushdie has not been wasted. Another example of Muslims getting more bang for their buck than they expected from our society.

John D. Witt

Re:Category error

Jerry,

The email from Bob Ludwick had an obviously incorrect statement.

" In Muslim majority societies, the Muslims simply impose sharia law and subjugate--or murder--non-Muslims."

I have little truck with political correctness, but I would like to point to Turkey and Indonesia as obvious counter-examples.

Joel Upchurch

You are correct, and the point has often been made, both here and elsewhere. There are Muslim nations that do not hold to the necessity of jihad against the infidels.

Turkey is not a Muslim nation, by Turkish Fundamental Law. Mustapha Kemal Ataturk established the Turkish Republic as a secular society, and the Constitution authorizes and commands the Turkish Army to enforce that stipulation. On more than one occasion the Army has come out of barracks and dismissed an elected government -- at least once hanging some of the officials -- for attempting to establish a Muslim state. There is considerable evidence that this Constitutional provision would be overthrown in a popular referendum in Turkey, and the current government has taken steps to replace the top leadership of the Turkish military with officers more sympathetic with the notion of an Islamic Republic. This situation is compounded by Western politicians including those of the European Union chastising Turkey for being insufficiently democratic. Of course a thoroughly democratic Turkey might well become an Islamic Republic with an established religion and bring in sharia; it might well go further. No one knows. Also note that the Turkish secularists cannot in general be described as "moderate Muslims". Most call themselves athiests.

Indonesia is indeed a highly diverse society, diverse in races and religions. It has the largest Muslim population in the world, but has never adopted sharia or demanded jihad.

Your point is well made, but there remains the problem that in both Shia and Sunni states sharia is often popular and has been imposed by both autocratic/monarchic and popular governments. The statement you object to needed modification, but it is not utterly untrue. There is a considerable body of scholarly work that holds that all Muslims must adopt sharia and wage ceaseless struggle to bring all infidels under the House of Islam.

'A wind arose from the south...

2009-11-12T13:10:11-06:00

'A wind arose from the south, strong and deadly, bringing with it vast columns of whirling sand, which entirely covered up the troops and caused them wholly to disappear.'

The supposedly unreliable Herodotus is vindicated yet again:

<http://news.discovery.com/archaeology/
cambyses-army-remains-sahara.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Veterans Day

2009-11-11T14:40:23-06:00

Veterans Day

Monday Mail Roundup 4

2009-11-11T14:40:14-06:00

Solar Power From Orbit

2009-11-11T14:40:12-06:00

Solar Power From Orbit

Jerry, According to Raw Story the Japanese government are planning to launch an experimental orbiting solar power satellite in 2020 which will beam down ten megawatts. Using the lessons from this a full prototype with a capacity of 250 megawatts will follow. Makes a lot of sense for a country that has to import all its energy. Makes a lot of sense for the USA too.

John Edwards

Beckman's books

2009-11-11T14:40:11-06:00

Beckman's books

Jerry,

"The History of Pi" is still available and in print for about $10. In fact, I saw it for sale in a Borders about 4 years ago in your area. Also here.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0312381859

His printing company seems to have been bought out by Vales Lake Publishing.

http://valeslake.com/bookmart.htm

"Einstein Plus Two" is listed at $40. Not cheap, but much better than $225.

Still, much like abandonware software, we need some equitable method of preserving works unless the author specifically opts out. I still have a great piece of shareware that the author directed the source code be destroyed on his death from cancer. His right, but I wish he had not. I understand that Alastair Reynolds has systematically removed one of his works.

Alan

I would say that once one has accepted the protection of copyright or patent, one has the obligation to allow the property to become public domain at some point. Once published you may not unpublish...

House Vote

2009-11-09T15:10:11-06:00

House Vote

Dr. Pournelle --

Yesterday you wrote, "Mourn the Republic."

May I remind you that despair is a sin. There's still the Senate vote on a bill which is not guaranteed, a reconciliation in committee of the two bills, and then the result of that has to be voted upon by both houses. There's still a chance that any Pelosi-Reid chimera will be wholly unacceptable to sufficient numbers of Congressmen and Senators.

There's still time but it will require more work, especially from those who live in the districts of the vulnerable Congressmen and Senators.

It could even be that the Lords on the Hill will suddenly shift their focus from good politics to good governance. (And maybe the horse will sing.)

Pieter

Point taken. And maybe the horse will sing...

Letter from England

2009-11-09T15:10:10-06:00

Harry Erwin's Letter From England

A commentary on Lord Mandelson's program of restructuring the UK university system in a more business-like fashion. <http://tinyurl.com/yz8opv9 > <http://tinyurl.com/yz725f4> <http://tinyurl.com/yfp9qbt>. THE

report: <http://tinyurl.com/yz725f4>. Growing university resistance to the new Government policies <http://tinyurl.com/ygzdjf2>. New government policies on university entrance to take account of social

class: <http://tinyurl.com/yk43quw>. UK Parents lose right to opt their children out of sex education (beginning at age 5) <http://tinyurl.com/ydrjquw > <http://tinyurl.com/ylfo65c>. I suspect these changes are being made because Labour knows it will be out of power in the spring, and they want to 'bed in' policies that their supporters want. I expect these will be reversed in a few years, but not before doing serious damage.

Bruce Schneier's latest comments on zero-tolerance policies <http://tinyurl.com/yfqngx3 >.

MPs ask about Nutt firing <http://tinyurl.com/y8mwa65>. Nature editorial "The sacking of a government adviser on drugs shows Britain's politicians can't cope with intelligent debate." <http://tinyurl.com/y9ho7j7 >. Having been a risk analyst, I recognise the problem--people are nutty about low-probability risks. The scientific establishment is now asking for a fresh start <http://tinyurl.com/ykcr8sk>.

Wikipedia defines 'anomie' as "a sociological term which may most simply be described as a personal condition resulting from a lack of norms." Durkheim comments "a lack of social ethic produces moral deregulation and an absence of legitimate aspirations." The average UK citizen may not know it by that name, but they recognise it in the behaviour they see around them. (I'm not sure I'd call it lack of norms so much as having norms appropriate to life in a baboon or chimpanzee troop.) There seem to be those in Government here who see it as a reasonable state to be encouraged or at least not discouraged.

In any case, the pervasive anomie here produces news stories like the

following: <http://tinyurl.com/ykh2zk6> <http://tinyurl.com/yblq29e>.

"If academic research is not devoted to finding the truth, it is a form of propaganda, and not necessarily to be preferred to other forms, much cheaper and perhaps more persuasive." (Lord Conrad Russell

1993)

Harry Erwin

I'm in Tyson's Corners, waiting for a visit from family members who live in...

2009-11-15T12:40:01-06:00

I'm in Tyson's Corners, waiting for a visit from family members who live in the DC area. The news is interesting. I see that a general consensus is forming on Afghanistan: that we cannot make the kind of commitment it will take to transform Afghanistan into a liberal democracy allied with the US.

What will happen? Probably a compromise. Some extra troops will be sent so that it can be spun that a surge did not work. This will cost blood and treasure spent to buy some kind of credibility to the administration and to the United States. I doubt that it will buy much face saving for the nation, but I can hope it does so.

The only real interest the United States has in Afghanistan is that neither the central government nor the provinces harbor our enemies. That can be done with silver bullets. Note I said silver bullets, not pieces of silver. Bullets can be fired, if need be.

It is not really in our interest to force the Afghan provinces into subservience to Kabul, even if that were in our power, which is doubtful. We need a way out that relieves us of most responsibilities in Afghanistan and saves as much of our reputation as we can save. I wish Obama well in finding such a solution; it appears that he wants that as much as we do. I think the Republicans ought to make that as easy on him as they can. In this case, politics probably should end at the water's edge.

That does not in any way diminish my opposition to the health care grab, the carbon tax, and the continued attempts to Nationalize America. Unlike foreign policy, these are very much the stuff of politics.

Friday the 13th falls on Friday this month

2009-11-13T15:50:02-06:00

Friday the 13th falls on Friday this month

This place will be slowing down for a few days. I am going to Tyson's Corners, Virginia, to take part in a conference. I'll be back Tuesday evening. Answering email and updating this place will depend on connectivity at airports, and whether I can make a router work at the motel, and that sort of thing. All worked out well on my last trip, so I don't expect problems, but I'm not sure of my time management for the duration.

They have charged Major Hassan with murder...

2009-11-12T13:10:04-06:00

They have charged Major Hassan with murder, not treason. I think that's a mistake.

There are 3500 Muslims in the US military. It is unlikely that any great number believe in the strict interpretation of the Koran: by which I mean that the fundamental command is to bring the entire world into the House of Submission, either through conversion or by levying tribute on unbelievers. There can be no peace between the House of Islam and the unbelievers. There won't be many in the armed forces who believe that, but we have seen the consequences of not paying attention to the matter.

The Department of Justice has the resources to look into the possibility of prosecuting members of the previous administration, but apparently not enough to look into the activities of an army psychiatrist making contact with declared enemies of the United States, but in fairness this is not a new problem, and the previous administration didn't deal with it either.

It is not a crime to be a Muslim. It is not a crime for a nominal moderate Muslim to begin taking the Koran literally. It is not a crime for him to seek advice on what it means to be a Muslim. It is not a crime even for an army major to do that. This is not a matter for criminal investigation with all the safeguards that implies. Yet surely it is a reason for concern, and it becomes a matter of investigating and neutralizing threats.

This is a serious matter. We do not want to be unfair to loyal soldiers, but we cannot ignore the situation. I leave its resolution to the professionals, but it would be comforting to know that there is serious thought at appropriate levels.

I have been asked in mail if treason can be a solitary act. I would think so....

2009-11-10T17:40:04-06:00

I have been asked in mail if treason can be a solitary act. I would think so. It's of course simpler to charge Hassan with murder, but I see no reason why he ought not also be charged with treason. John Brown was hanged for treason after his raid on the Harper's Ferry arsenal, and he was not acting in concert with any other organization: he did hope to inspire others to rise in revolt and do as he did. I make no doubt that Hassan would have been pleased if he could bring about a general uprising of Muslim troops in the US armed forces. I'd call that levying war against the United States.

For platinum subscription:

2009-11-09T15:10:04-06:00

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

Patron Subscription:

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.

From Saturday's Mail:

2009-11-09T17:10:01-06:00

From Saturday's Mail:

The larger question you raise is the important one: how many tragedies does it take before we discard political correctness. Not all muslims are terrorists, but essentially all terrorists that target the USA are muslims. This surely justifies extra scrutiny, rather than extra tolerance.

I didn't comment at the time because I didn't think a comment was needed, but apparently a few readers -- and a number of people I never heard from before -- are upset. First they have truncated what was said into "Not all Muslims are terrorists but all terrorists are Muslims," a straw man easy to kick apart. They then spray words like "this little platitude", and "stupid and baseless" without addressing the central issue of "extra scrutiny rather than extra tolerance."

It would seem to me rather obvious that if we are going to disarm our troops and concentrate them into target areas known to be safe to terrorists, we might give some thought to access to those target areas. Yes, of course there are Muslims loyal to the United States. Yes, there are anti-abortion terrorists. Yes there are Green terrorists. All these facts need to be considered in framing our policies.

There were plenty of indications that Major Hassan was behaving in an odd manner. Nothing was done about that. In my judgment it is not stupid to ask why nothing was done. It is not stupid to pay attention to probabilities. It is certainly not less stupid to attempt to confiscate a retired general's Medal of Honor at an airport in the name of political correctness. "Extra scrutiny rather than extra tolerance" may not be the proper policy, but suggesting that as a policy does not deserve the kind of obloquy I have been receiving. Of course it's usual to denounce any questioning of political correctness. That, after all, is the politically correct thing to do...

The Fall of the Wall

2009-11-09T15:10:02-06:00

The Fall of the Wall

The Cold War -- Seventy Years War -- shaped my life, and was certainly the most influential historical event of my lifetime. The Beginning of the End of the Cold War happened twenty years ago on this date, when Gorbachev gave up Soviet dictatorship of Warsaw Pact nations. When the Wall came down, the Soviet Empire began unravelling. No more Prague Spring, no more Hungarian Uprising of 1956. In both those cases the other members of the Warsaw Pact used their soldiers to suppress other members of the Empire; classic imperial strategy. Koestler predicted that glassnost would end totalitarianism. Of course the regime could hang on bereft of its belief systems so long as the Russian troops were loyal enough to intimidate the puppet regimes so that the puppet regime troops would suppress centrifugal tendencies, but doing that required a will to rule that was rapidly vanishing even among the Nomenklatura.

For much of my life there were over 20,000 nuclear weapons aimed at the United States. Young men and women sat in concrete holes deep below ground listening for Emergency War Orders they hoped they would never hear. Bomber crews lived out at the ends of the runways, and nuclear submarines tried to avoid their Soviet shadows knowing full well that the USSR had missiles targeted on their last known location. Those who didn't live in those times will not understand just what a relief the end of the Cold War was. When the Wall came down it was clear that the end of the Cold War was near. Rejoice.

It passed, getting one Republican vote. The storm gathers.

2009-11-09T01:00:01-06:00

It passed, getting one Republican vote. The storm gathers.

Sunday Mail Roundup 1

2009-11-08T22:22:50-06:00

Saturday Mail Roundup 8

2009-11-08T22:22:49-06:00

Beckmanns' book

2009-11-08T22:22:48-06:00

Subject: Beckmanns' book

Jerry,

This is a bit of a tangent, but it relates to the theme of orphan books. I was curious enough about the subject to see if "Einstein Plus Two" was still available. Unfortunately, the work is out of print. Beckmann had his own publishing company, which appears to have gone out of business. Who might retain the publishing rights is not clear to me. The only used copy I found on the internet was $225, listed as a "first edition". The text does not appear to be available from Google Books. Seems like there really should be a way to preserve access to books like these.

CP, Connecticut

It was situations such as this which prompted Google to do their scans of books. I do not know who owns Petr's estate, but we need an amendment to the copyright laws that allows some way for the public to have access to works long out of print, yet provides some protection to the rights of the author. I make no doubt that something will evolve over time. It's too important to leave as is. As time goes on I am more attracted to the Google solution.

I once had a copy of Einstein Plus Two as well as a History of Pi. Alas the Brotherhood of Book Borrowers seems to have made off with both.

'NGOs have grown from a few small back-street offices into a multi...

2009-11-08T22:22:47-06:00

'NGOs have grown from a few small back-street offices into a multi- million dollar international organisation - in the case of Greenpeace, with a fleet of ships, modern office suites, staff and pension funds.'

<http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/
blog/?p=231#more-231>

http://www.amazon.com/
Chill-Reassessment-Warming-Climate
-Cooling/dp/1905570198/ref=sr_1_
1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=
1257571646&sr=8-1

-- Roland Dobbins

Nice work if you can get it...

- Maj. Hasan

2009-11-08T22:22:46-06:00

- Maj. Hasan

Hi Jerry,

I don't wish to defend Maj. Hasan, but - in our condemnation of him - there is always the risk of generalizing to far. I think you did so with this statement:

"...the instant he began to show doubts about the legitimacy of the War and an unwillingness to be deployed to participate in it, he ought at the very least to have been stripped of his commission..."

If Maj. Hasan refused an order to deploy, then he should have been disciplined. However, holding a personal opinion as to whether or not there ought to be such a war? I think the Iraq war was a serious error: naked aggression justified by trumped up evidence. Should I be stripped of my reserve commission for holding this opinion?

Also, perhaps relevant: In my memories of active service, it was often the case that doctors were not always terribly "military". Many of them joined the service as a way of getting their medical education paid for; and the military needs doctors badly enough to accept a lower standard of military behavior and allegiance. (I am also at risk of overgeneralizing here.)

Of course, a lower standard of military allegiance does not include shooting your fellow soldiers. Maj. Hasan is a treasonous bastard, and I trust he will be standing in front of a court martial as soon as humanly possible. Does the UCMJ still allow firing squads?

Cheers,

Brad

I will amend my statement to read that he should have been taken out of counseling the Legions as they prepared for deployment, and he was almost certainly unsuitable as a counsel or consolation for the severaly wounded returning from deployment. We no not need hire and purchase of treason.

I am not in favor of our Gulf Wars, and opposed them all, from the first one in the time of Bush I; but I am not applying for a position as troop counselor.

My position has always been that my opposition to the mission does not mean opposition to the forces we sent: once you send in the Legions, they deserve the support of all of us. My opposition to continuing in Afghanistan is based on my belief that we are unlikely to make the 20 year commitment of blood and treasure that is the minimum required for victory; and if we are not willing to stay the course, we ought to find another way to accomplish the objective of keeping Afghanistan clear of bases where our enemies can organize against us. Until we do something else to accomplish those goals, the Legions are needed in Kabul and the provinces, resented though they may be.

Hassan's position was that the Legions have no right to be in Afghanistan. He went further than that. This in a commissioned officer of the United States is an act of treason. He has a right to his opinion and to broadcast it; he has no right to do so as an officer. Oaths of office make a difference.

UCAVs

2009-11-08T22:22:45-06:00

UCAVs

Every guided air-to-air missile is a UCAV, and guided air-to-air missiles have existed since the 1940s. Indeed, the entire US air-defense interceptor force was really just reusable manned boosters for long-range guided missiles.

Mike

Ether theory a rival to Dark Matter

2009-11-08T22:22:44-06:00

Subject: Ether theory a rival to Dark Matter

Here is more support for your cocktail party theory:

--- Dark Matter's Rival: Ether Theory Challenges "Invisible Mass"

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/
news/2006/09/060908-dark-matter.html ---

CP, Connecticut

Consumer Electronics on Airliners

2009-11-08T22:22:43-06:00

Consumer Electronics on Airliners

"It has nothing to do with interference at all, it has nothing to do with technology at all."

I am a licensed pilot and a licensed amateur radio operator. The above statement is not correct. Since the mid-80's most consumer electronic equipment sold in the USA is complete cr*p from the RF emissions standpoint. Very few items sold in department stores goes anywhere near meeting the FCC rules on RF interference. There is a chance of interference with the avionics when it comes to untested consumer electronics.

At cruise it has been judged that the danger is not material. You have several independent navigational aids and ground radar for backup. If there is a problem detected you have enough time to order all equipment shut down. An error of a few miles while cruising is not significant. That same error when landing in IFR conditions obviously is. The same situation applies to takeoffs due to the danger of having to quickly land if there is a problem. Hence the prohibition during takeoffs and landings.

Regarding the comment about being inside a metal box - (1) the cabin is not a Faraday cage, and (2) even if it was, that the avionics is inside that cage along with the potential RF sources tends to eliminate this as an issue. Regarding the final operating frequency of cell phones it should also be noted that even a perfectly shielded phone will still be broadcasting harmonics. And those phones are not perfectly shielded, and so you have the issue of transmissions from the IF stages.

While I do tend to scoff at the "nothing is too much to be safe" and "how do you KNOW it is safe?" types in this particular matter the airline rules have a reasonable basis.

Gene Horr

I would think that isolating the essential aircraft electronics from the electronic cabin noise wold be fairly cheap, if one decided to do that. And I note that we used to pay a lot of money to be able to telephone from an airplane in flight. Finally, I also note that I have been on military flights where I had wideband wireless access while flying over the US.

: My interview with Heather Paye:

2009-11-08T22:22:42-06:00

: My interview with Heather Paye:

This is a recent interview I gave to Heather Paye for her blog: You may find it interesting.

Down to the Core

A blog that digs deep into the "A Gift From Above" book, gives details, news, upcoming events, and more! My Shelfari Bookshelf Shelfari

Meet Francis Hamit!

Meet Francis Hamit, the inspiring author of the historical fiction novel "The Shenandoah Spy" about Belle Boyd, the first woman to be formally commissioned an army officer.

http://heatherpaye.blogspot.com/
2009/11/meet-francis-hamit.html

Francis Hamit

Friday Mail Roundup 9

2009-11-08T22:22:41-06:00

Nuclear Power

2009-11-08T22:22:40-06:00

Nuclear Power

Jerry,

We can’t have those nuclear power plants because they would threaten too many jobs in a too many industries. Which is why the “green jobs” are so attractive to the left – they make a lot of work for people. They are the same as patronage positions in government.

This came to me one morning at 5:55 AM, back before I retired, while I was standing in the train station waiting for my morning commute. We heard a whistle and got in line, but around the corner came not our commuter train but a unit train filled with coal from the WV mountains. 150 cars long, with two large General Electric locomotives, hauling 15000 tons of coal. Since I worked in the nuclear energy field, I wondered how much energy that represented, as the train passed by. When you do the math, it turns out that one Pressurized Water Reactor fuel bundle contains twice the amount of energy as one of those coal trains. There are about 200 of these bundles in a typical PWR, and about one-third of them are replaced every 2 years.

I could haul one of those fuel bundles in the back of my pickup truck, if I was willing to let it hang over the back a few feet.

So, instead of those big GE locomotives, and 150 steel coal cars, and all those rails and ties and the labor to put them all together and keep them running, and maybe even a few ships, too, if the coal went overseas, you have one pickup truck and the public roads.

I don’t have the numbers, but I bet GE makes a lot more money on locomotives than on nuclear fuel. And the US steel industry will never get rich making 500 steel reactor pressure vessels, or even the piping and other tanks or structural steel in those plants. And the railroads would certainly not like to lose all that revenue to a pickup truck.

The coal miners might continue to have jobs, mining coal that could be turned into liquid fuels at the mine-mouth using heat supplied by a nuclear reactor, but the construction and transportation infrastructure for that sort of endeavor is minuscule compared to the current steam-coal system.

Realize of course that fresh nuclear fuel is not shipped in pickup trucks, but in ordinary tractor trailers, which carry a lot more than one bundle at a time. When the fuel is finally spent, it requires a large cask to carry a number of bundles to their final destination, which should be reprocessing, but is now just storage. But you get the picture about how many jobs and how much industry depends on our current system. Until those people stop feeling threaten by nuclear power, it is unlikely to replace much current generation capacity.

Ralph Caruso

speculation

2009-11-08T22:22:39-06:00

speculation

Jerry,

I hadn't read Dr Beckmann's theory in detail but I read some of the things he published about it. Jeffery Kooistra, who currently does alternating science columns in Analog, is also a modern ether theorist.

The bottom line as I see it (recall that at present I'm more an interested and educated dilettante in the subject rather than an active practioner, though that could change in January when the current job goes belly-up), is:

(a) Recall my "Einstein's fallacy" argument: dynamics is about geometric relationships; however, modeling dynamics geometrically does not mean that the underlying mechanism is geometric.

(b) The logical conclusion based on today's data and theory is that the underlying mechanism is more likely to be quantum theoretic, but that is an assumption; the cat is not yet belled in terms of a "final theory."

(c) The "waves in a medium" argument may come back to photons, or at least the concept of duality which underlying quantum mechanics: each particle carries the mass (more accurately, mass-energy) which supports its wavelike nature.

(d) There is accumulating evidence that Einstein's theory is incorrect, at least insofar as the concept that the speed of light is an absolute limit are concerned -- the European experiments showing superluminal transmission of RF signals, yesterday's report about reversed Cherenkov radiation in engineered "metamaterials." "Dark energy" and "dark matter" themselves are postulated because the visible energy and mass of the universe do not account for the observed gravitational dynamics on a universal scale. (Conversely, there are people who believe that the cosmological consequences of electromagnetism are not adequately understood, and I don't know the extent to which that might account for the observed discrepancies.) I also include here the papers from Los Alamos citing that the speed of electrostatic fields switching on is significantly greater than c (as opposed to the speed of radiating fields which by relativity are equal to c), and the Los Alamos results, never formally published, which Dr. Forward cited in several papers -- and was once gracious enough to speak to me personally about by phone -- suggesting that neutrinos always travel faster than light.

(e) Inadequate attention has been given to the issues that Hank Stein raised bout the speed of gravity. Landis and others have published on the web (years ago) essays stating that general relativity can adequately explain the discrepancies, but from what I've seen that may be a circular argument: the discrepancies always depend on the relationship between the velocity of the body in the test field and the position of the gravitating body (e.g that, as in Newtonian physics, the direction of the force always appears to be towards the instantaneous position of the gravitating body rather than towards the position where it was when the "gravity" was emitted, regardless of the velocities involved), and I suspect that such an relationship would be preserved independently of the speed of gravity.

All of this doesn't answer your question directly, but the bottom line is that there is nothing to preclude a universal field which has some, if not all, of the properties ascribed to the luminiferous ether, with the principle exception being the ether drift as anticipated by Michelson and Morley. A google of the subject appears to be fruitful as regards the modern theories.

Sincerely,

Jim Woosley

The Michelson Morley Experiment showed there is no ether wind resulting from the motion of the earth in its orbit. I have seen nothing that says it ruled out an ether entangled with the Earth's gravitational field. Einstein didn't say there that ether had been disproved: he said that the special theory explained the experimental data with no need for the ether hypothesis.

A Response to Colonel Couvillon on UAV

2009-11-08T22:22:38-06:00

A Response to Colonel Couvillon on UAV

Re. Col Couvillon’s gloating…

The average fighter pilot will accept obsolescence on the day that the average Army tank driver accepts unmanned main battle tanks as a suitable replacement for manned vehicles, the USN replaces their fleet with unmanned ships/boats, and an infantry officer hands in his sidearm in favor of a seat at a stateside console, since on-site presence is apparently not worth the cost or risk and our communications are good enough to substitute for actual presence.

The very same Army, Navy, and Marine folks who are adamant about the value of “boots on the ground” are the ones the most vocal about the uselessness and imminent demise of manned aircraft. Is that inter-service competition, hypocrisy, or ignorance? The arguments seem pretty adversarial, and the attacks on the “fighter pilot attitude” are far more personal than factual.

For my own opinion, I am confident that any military reliant on unmanned ANYTHING will find itself without any combat capability on the second or third day of the war. You were at least partially right in your mercenary series books… it’s too easy to knock a satellite out of the sky and our unmanned systems will always require non-line-of-sight comm. That, and even stealth aircraft can be shot down by anyone who has the ability to look out the window and SEE the target, so the force who can put real people in the sky will maintain an anti-stealth capability beyond that of any force relying on unmanned systems.

Remember, the pride of a modern F-15 pilot is no longer in the number of kills he has. We have no F-15 aces, and probably never will. Rather, it is in the fact that it has been decades since our ground forces have suffered a single loss to enemy air activity. It surprises hell out of me to hear anyone in the Army supporting handing that responsibility over to unmanned vehicles that can be rendered ineffective by a 50 gal drum of BBs lofted into the path of a comm. satellite. It’s a bit like giving an infantry soldier a gun that won’t work without an operational datalink back to the states, and asking him to be pleased with his new capability.

Then again, maybe the Army’s next main battle tank will be unmanned. The issues are exactly the same, and “everyone” agrees that there remains no substitute for human eyes and a brain on-scene when immediate action is required. But it’s too much fun to blame fighter pilots for everything and make operational recommendations for another service that wouldn’t be remotely considered for one’s own field of expertise. In the end, it won’t affect me in the slightest but our ground troops will bear the burden the first time we meet a halfway competent foe on the battlefield and they need some air support.

No one who thinks seriously about it begrudges USAF its honors in protecting the ground army from enemy action. USAF was superb at this from WW II, and can boast that no ground troops were lost to enemy air action in the Korean war. (Alas, I know for a fact that ground troops were lost to air action by USAF and USMC aircraft, but that's another story. On the other hand, USMC was damned effective in supporting USMC on the ground, and many Army people wished they could get that effective support; again another story.)

The criticism is that USAF insists on keeping the ground support mission while it really doesn't want it. Had USAF handed over the Warthogs after the First Gulf War there there wouldn't be so much glee among the brown shoes when the blue suits take one.

I am no fan of turning the military mission over to legions of robots. I am a fan of giving the ground support mission to the Army.

: Obesity, poor education big obstacles to military recruiting,

2009-11-08T22:22:37-06:00

: Obesity, poor education big obstacles to military recruiting,

Jerry

According to the W Post, obesity and poor education are big obstacles to military recruiting:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/
04/AR2009110402899.html

Perhaps soon we'll have an army like Rome's, just before it fell: a bunch of wimps not really up for a fight.

The Legions kept Rome going long after the center could no longer hold. But it is true: in the days of the Republic, Roman soldiers killed enemies until their arms were tired and raised new armies instantly after defeat. By the end, the Legions just weren't up to the fight. But that degeneration took a long time. Our Legions remain competent and loyal. So far.

The 'no electronic device use' issue on commercial airliners.

2009-11-08T22:22:36-06:00

The 'no electronic device use' issue on commercial airliners.

It has nothing to do with interference at all, it has nothing to do with technology at all. After all, the major carriers are all scrambling to allow in-flight mobile phone service via a TCP/IP-based satellite gateway, as well as Internet access (Lufthansa had this for a while and it was great; the problem is that they bought far more equipment than was needed due to networking vendor oversell, and so the service wasn't able to turn a profit).

The reason you're told to 'turn off electronic devices' is simply about control.

The aircrew want to be sure that you understand that, instead of being a paying customer who has rights and privileges, you're an unwanted guest whom they grudgingly allow a seat on their fine aircraft as long as you do as you're told. They want to avoid any possible liability resulting from a frivolous lawsuit filed by a passenger who was too stupid to understand how to put on his seatbelt, and who would claim that the aircrew should've prevented him from listening to his iPod/ iPhone and forced him to pay attention to the safety briefing the rest of us a) don't need and b) have heard 10,000 times before.

The secondary hidden agenda is that remarkably similar groups of delusional rent-seeking leeches within each airline company believe that they can somehow force people to abandon their personal electronic use due to abuse of the catch-all 'you must obey any command from the aircrew, no matter how absurd, or we'll send you to Guantanamo' laws passed in almost every country after 9/11, and instead make use of their insipid in-flight entertainment systems, for which they believe they can charge you.

It won't work, of course, but that won't stop them from trying. Here in Asia, everyone pretty much ignores these pronouncements, and as long as you don't flaunt the fact that you're ignoring their nonsensical ukases on this topic, the aircrew will simply ignore your transgressions.

The sole (and unsurprising) exception I've observed is Chinese airlines flying on domestic internal Chinese routes; taking a photo out the aircraft window is punishable by a term in the gulag, as China consider maps and aerial photography as covered under state secrets regulations, as was the case in the USSR. On international Chinese flights, everyone ignores these ridiculous strictures.

Roland Dobbins

Sary Shagan Unveiled.

2009-11-08T22:22:35-06:00

Sary Shagan Unveiled.

<http://geimint.blogspot.com/2009/11/sary-shagan-unveiled.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

I can recall when men risked their lives for photographs of that place... We saw tests of their ABM program conducted there.

"A colleague of mine spotted the anomaly on Google Maps...

2009-11-08T22:22:34-06:00

"A colleague of mine spotted the anomaly on Google Maps, and I thought 'I've got to go there'."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/
google/6474746/Mystery-of-Argleton-the-
Google-town-that-only-exists-online.html

-- Roland Dobbins

Re: challenges to special relativity

2009-11-08T22:22:33-06:00

Re: challenges to special relativity

My physics days are long behind me, but I want to add a point not being made in most of the discussion. You can challenge special relativity in the sense that it needs refinement. You cannot challenge it that it is totally wrong. Special relativity is one of the most confirmed theories in science. Every particle accelerator is built using special relativity to calculate the momentum of subatomic particles moving close to the speed of light. Every accelerator experiment discovers the change in elementary particle lifetimes, depending on how close the particles are to the speed of light. The theory is confirmed, in detail, every time you run one of these accelerators.

I do not think that you will find a serious physicist who thinks that special relativity is _wrong_, any more than you will find one who thinks that Newtonian mechanics is wrong. It may need refinement, but it is not wrong. We will never stop teaching Newtonian mechanics in elementary school and high school, nor special relativity in college. They work.

As an example, you can discuss whether the world is round or flat (I have no idea whether intelligent people ever thought it was flat, and I remember the discussions here.) Then you can question whether the shape is a sphere; maybe it’s an oblate spheroid. But we are never going to think that it is flat. Some scientific questions get settled. Then you go on to refine them, by adding new twists.

So don’t ask about GPSs. They are going to follow special relativity’s time dilatation. It works. Any challenges will be on far weirder cases, out of the range of experimental science to date.

You mentioned global warming. Global warming is a very different issue, at a very different stage. There we are arguing over whether the science has been done right in the first place. I think that most climate scientists believe in the standard global warming theory, but there is a significant percentage that disagree on various crucial points. I don’t care if it’s 90% against 10% (and all surveys have shown that the percentage of doubters in the field is way above 10%) – that means that _there is no consensus_. They are still working on it. The science is not settled until essentially every scientist in the field sees this as being part of the basic tools he uses to do his business.

mkr

Well, as I said, I don't have a dog in this fight, and I am not going overboard on defending cocktail party theories. I do point out that no one says Special Relativity doesn't produce correct answers that standard Newtonian physics can't produce without modifications -- but according to Beckmann and a few others, so does Newtonian physics with an ether that is sensitive to local gravitational influences. The Michelson Morley experiment pretty well shows that there is no ether wind brought about by the motion of the Earth in its orbit. That means either that there is no ether -- Einstein's postulate -- or that the ether moves along with the Earth, i.e. that there is gravitational entanglement of the ether with the Earth. Beckmann's hypothesis is that the ether is the local gravitational field; there isn't any other ether. Beckmann, not a theoretical physicist but better trained in engineering physics than I am, was very careful about his assertions. He claimed, and I have seen no refutation, that his assumption that gravitational fields were in fact "the ether" explained all the experimental data without the assumption that light speed in a vacuum is invariant, or that motion of an object relative to an observer is indistinguishable from motion of the observer relative to the object: that is, if you move toward me, my clocks slow down, or at least someone observing both of us will think so.

I can hardly insist that the universe make intuitive sense, but I would prefer theories that don't unduly strain credulity. I'd also prefer a theory that doesn't automatically rule out faster than light travel. I understand thoroughly that the universe doesn't care about my preferences, but once again, given the choice of two theories one of which fits my preferences and one of which doesn't, I can hardly be faulted for raising questions about what evidence supports what theory.

Regarding GPS, special relativity flatly says there is no synchronicity of clocks moving relative to each other. Now orbital speeds are not high compared to the speed of light, but we can detect interference waves from light coming from objects moving at those speeds. It turns out that special relativity correcti0ns work with GPS but, as I understand it, you don't need that complexity, and assuming synchronicity among all those clocks is "good enough." Meaning, I presume that despite the special relativity prohibition of synchronicity of clocks moving with respect to each other, the assumption of synchronicity is good enough for navigational purposes. I don't really mean to make light of this: I merely point out that the complexities of assuming special relativity make calculations tedious, and it you can find a way to get the right answer without going through all of that, it's worth something not to have to do it. None of which is definitive.

My speculation, just to be clear, is that IF Beckmann's theory that there is an ether, and the ether is the local gravitational field, be sufficient to explain all the known data -- I don't use the word "truth" except in the Popperian sense of "not falsified" -- then I wonder if Dark Matter, which would certainly be entangled with local gravity fields, might not be the ether? And as I said, it's a cocktail party theory. I will also point out that asking questions about special relativity is probably the best way to increase understanding of a rather thoroughly counter-intuitive theory. Even Einstein seems to have had some doubts about the need for two different relativities. And I see no harm at all in asking about GPS: I know it works. I also know that special relativity says you can't synchronize those clocks. And I know that we have to assume they are synchronized in order to get the right answers. While we're on that, I can ask about clocks sent around the world, one to the east, and one to the west: they come back out of synch, and oddly enough, out of synch by the amount predicted by an ether theory. I make no doubt that special relativity can explain this but I'm not sure quite how. The clocks were sent on commercial airplanes and didn't move very fast over the surface of the earth, the rotational velocity being the critical factor.

I agree regarding Global Warming. That one is beyond cocktail party theories. And see below

Thursday Mail Roundup 10

2009-11-08T22:22:32-06:00

2 Studies Gauge Effect of New York's Posted Calories http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/health/03nutrition.html...

2009-11-08T22:22:31-06:00

2 Studies Gauge Effect of New York's Posted Calories http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/health/03nutrition.html ]

How Posted Calories Affect Food Orders By RONI CARYN RABIN

Just a few weeks ago, independent researchers reported that New York City's ground-breaking calorie labeling law had had absolutely no effect on the caloric content of meals bought at chain restaurants in poor neighborhoods. Last week, city health officials delivered a more upbeat assessment, saying New Yorkers ordered fewer calories at four chains--Au Bon Pain, KFC, McDonald's and Starbucks--after the law went into effect last year.

The changes reported by the city health department's preliminary data were modest, indicating little change either way in the number of calories bought at 8 of 13 chains surveyed, and a significant increase in calories ordered at Subway, which researchers attributed to a continuing $5 promotional special on footlong sandwiches that has tripled demand for them.

Although the findings of the two reports appear to contradict one another, researchers said differences in focus and size might explain the discrepancies. <clip>

E. D. Hirsch’s Curriculum for Democracy.

2009-11-08T22:22:30-06:00

E. D. Hirsch’s Curriculum for Democracy.

<http://www.city-journal.org/2009/19_4_hirsch.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

I recommend this one to everyone's attention.

Solar Power in Space

2009-11-08T22:22:29-06:00

Solar Power in Space

Jerry,

What happens when something flies through the microwave power down-link?

Bob Holmes

This deserves a longer answer but I am out of time. In essence, nothing. The energy density is low enough that birds get warm and fly out. There's considerable literature on this.

Space Elevator

2009-11-08T22:22:28-06:00

Space Elevator

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091105/
ap_on_sc/us_space_elevator_11

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – A robot powered by a ground-based laser beam climbed a long cable dangling from a helicopter on Wednesday to qualify for prize money in a $2 million competition to test the potential reality of the science fiction concept of space elevators. The highly technical contest brought teams from Missouri, Alaska and Seattle to Rogers Dry Lake in the Mojave Desert, most familiar to the public as a space shuttle landing site. The contest requires their machines to climb 2,953 feet (nearly 1 kilometer) up a cable slung beneath a helicopter hovering nearly a mile high. LaserMotive's vehicle zipped up to the top in just over four minutes and immediately repeated the feat, qualifying for at least a $900,000 second-place prize. The device, a square of photo voltaic panels about 2 feet by 2 feet and topped by a motor structure and thin triangle frame, had failed to respond to the laser three times before it was lowered, inspected and then hoisted back up by the helicopter for the successful tries. LaserMotive's two principals, Jordin Kare and Thomas Nugent, said they were relieved after two years of work. They said their real goal is to develop a business based on the idea of beaming power, not the futuristic idea of accessing space via an elevator climbing a cable. "We both are pretty skeptical of its near-term prospects," Kare said of an elevator. The contest, however, demonstrates that beaming power works, Nugent said. "Anybody who needs power in one place and can't run wires to it -- we'd be able to deliver power," Kare said. Earlier out on the lakebed, team member Nick Burrows had pointed out how it grips the cable with modified skateboard wheels and the laser is aimed with an X Box game controller. It had never climbed higher than 80 feet previously, he said. The day's competition began late after hours of testing the cable system, refueling the helicopter and waits for specific time windows in which the lasers can be fired without harming satellites passing overhead. The Kansas City Space Pirates went first with a machine that initially balked but eventually began climbing. Its speed was too slow to qualify for any prizes but it got within about 160 feet of the top before the laser had to be shut down for satellite protection. Ben Shelef, CEO of the contest-sponsoring Spaceward Foundation, said the Pirates had a minor laser tracking problem but the real problem appeared to be in the mechanical system. As the afternoon grew late, the University of Saskatchewan's Space Design Team had to put off its attempts until Thursday. All three teams had further chances to qualify through Friday. The competition was five years in the making, Shelef said. "A lot of hurdles to cross," he said. "Now that it's happening I'm actually happy already. It doesn't matter what the outcome is." Funded by a NASA program to explore bold technology, the contest is intended to encourage development of a theory that originated in the 1960s and was popularized by Arthur C. Clarke's 1979 novel "The Fountains of Paradise."

Space elevators are envisioned as a way to reach space without the risk and expense of rockets.

Instead, electrically powered vehicles would run up and down a cable anchored to a ground structure and extending thousands of miles up to a mass in geosynchronous orbit -- the kind of orbit communications satellites are placed in to stay over a fixed spot on the Earth.

Electricity would be supplied through a concept known as "power beaming," ground-based lasers pointing up to photo voltaic cells on the bottom of the climbing vehicle -- something like an upside-down solar power system.

The space elevator competition has not produced a winner in its previous three years, but has become increasingly difficult.

The vehicles must climb at an average speed of 16.4 feet (5 meters) per second, or about 11 miles (18 kilometers) per hour, to qualify for the top prize. A lesser prize is available for vehicles that climb at 2 meters per second.

The rules allow one team to collect all $2 million or for sums to be shared among all three teams depending on their achievements.

While the concept of an elevator to space may seem too fanciful, Andrew Williams, 26, a mechanical engineer on the Saskatchewan team, said he has no doubts it will come about.

"Once we put our minds to something it's just a matter of time for us to achieve it," he said.

Once you have government running health care you get stuff like this.

2009-11-08T22:22:27-06:00

Once you have government running health care you get stuff like this.

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/1109/prayer_coverage.php3

Our current health care system is not perfect, but the proposed "cure" seems much worse than the disease.

Ray A. Rayburn - AES Fellow

And of course this was inevitable too. You'd be amazed at what has to be covered in national health care insurance policies. I expect to see snake oil in there if a snake oil company opens a factory in a powerful Member's district. Why not? And it probably will be adulterated and end up importing the oil from China where they'll sneak in lizard oil to save money...

Well, now it's official!

2009-11-08T22:22:26-06:00

Well, now it's official!

Religion and "global warming"

http://www.dailytech.com/Global+Warming+
Afforded+Same+Legal+Status+as+
Religion+in+UK/article16721.htm

Rob

It had to happen...

Molecular spray for real!!? Implications for space travel.

2009-11-08T22:22:25-06:00

Molecular spray for real!!? Implications for space travel.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
id/33626447/ns/technology_and_science-space/

Like the nano-lathing in Total Annihilation... Wow.

Quantitative analysis reqd

2009-11-08T22:22:24-06:00

Quantitative analysis reqd

Scientific analysis requires quantitative analysis…

While we're speculating;

You said GPS clocks must be syncronized to nanoseconds. If you did the arithmetic would it turn out that the differences caused by special relativity would be less than that?

Reminds me of Newton's laws still being valid for special cases, such as use on Earth.

Not all scientific models are quantitative, and the assumption that all of nature can be described by mathematics has yet to be proved; but it is certainly the case that having a good mathematical model is best when possible. The special relativity equations are ugly and tedious but not really beyond advanced high school algebra. The tensors of general relativity, on the other hand, are beyond most people (including me) and some have as I understand it yet to be solved at all. That is one reason for interest in finding a simpler model of the universe that doesn't require tensors. Of course there may not be a simpler model; the universe doesn't always cooperate with our efforts to understand it. It's remarkable just how much of it we do understand.

Guy Fawkes Day

2009-11-08T22:22:22-06:00

Guy Fawkes Day

A Penny for the Guy...

Always remember the fifth of November,
Gunpowder treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
ever should be forgot...

Wednesday Mail Roundup 9

2009-11-08T22:22:21-06:00

SNAFU: Situation Normal, Act F***ing Incomprehensible

2009-11-08T22:22:20-06:00

SNAFU: Situation Normal, Act F***ing Incomprehensible

"There are sources, and despite your disdain I note that Limbaugh actually read portions of the proposed health care bill. Incomprehensible, of course, but that's not his fault."

I vaguely remember from long long ago... as the saying is. watching Johnny Carson one April 15th. He brought on a man, with a short and intentionally misleading introduction, to 'discuss and read' the Internal Revenue Code.

The man, dressed in somber black, stood behind a lectern, which held a thick tome, and read in unctuous and solemn tones, as if delivering a funeral oration (I paraphrase here only a little..:)

"The amount by which the amount by which the amount determined pursuant to article 6 of subparagraph 12 less the amount determined pursuant to article 7 of subparagraph exceeds the amount determined pursuant to article....."

The roar of the crowd made hearing any more, impossible.

Incomprehensible, of course, but that's not his fault.....

Geoff

Hi Jerry:

2009-11-08T22:22:19-06:00

Hi Jerry:

Don't know if you've seen this article about the USN's newest trimaran:

http://www.informationdissemination.net
/2009/10/these-are-very-fast-ships.html

Very interesting military strategic site too, for that matter.

JR in WV

Re: eBook on Airplane

2009-11-08T22:22:18-06:00

Re: eBook on Airplane

The problem isn't that these devices generate interference. The problem is that the FAA doesn't _know_ that they _don't_. And, in a government risk-assessment bureaucrat's mind, "don't know it doesn't" is a synonym for "does".

"Well, why don't they just test the device?" you ask. You ask this because you don't think like a government risk-assessment bureaucrat. These people consider an iPod and an iPod second-generation and an iPod third-generation and an iPhone and an iPod Touch and an iPod Touch second-generation and an iPod Nano and an iPod Nano second-generation and a Shuffle and a Shuffle 2G and an iPhone 3G and blah blah BLAH...anyway, every electronic device is a completely unique item which must be put through the full range of tests, in all possible operating configurations, before it can be certified as okay. If I swap the hard drive in my notebook PC, then it's no longer a certified device and I have to re-test it before the government risk-assessment bureaucrat will allow it to be used on an airplane.

-- Mike T. Powers

electronics use on airplanes

Jerry,

You can't call this security theater, but it is still theater. Aircraft comm is in the 108-135 MHZ band and is AM. Most cell phones today are very low power and operate in the 1800MHZ range. The chances of a cell phone interfering with TSO'ed Part 121 aircraft avionics is about 0. The only thing even close is DME in the 900MHZ band, but it's not the same type of modulation. The cell phones are running inside a big aluminum tube with windows, the Aircraft comm is running through blade antennas on the body. Not much competition. If every single passenger on the plane made a worst case connection with a cell tower, the RFI would still be minimal.

Another urban legend.

Phil

Article: The Collider, the Particle and a Theory About Fate

2009-11-08T22:22:17-06:00

Article: The Collider, the Particle and a Theory About Fate

Dear Jerry,

A couple of (non-crackpot) scientists have posited that the products of the Large Hadron Collider are sabotaging it from the future:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/
13/science/space/13lhc.html?_r=2

I don’t know if I buy it, but it would make a fine plot device.

Jeff Stoner Centreville, Virginia

As I said when it came out, I am not sure that one gets up to being a cocktail party theory...

Colonel Couvillon on UAV's

2009-11-08T22:22:16-06:00

Colonel Couvillon on UAV's

: Pilots & UAVs

Na, nah, na, nah, nyah... Told you so!

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmoral/articles/20091102.aspx

earlier: http://pournelle.org/cgi-bin/perlfect/
search/search.pl?q=ssx&showurl=/
mail/2008/Q3/mail530.html

http://www.pournelle.com/cgi-bin/
perlfect/search/search.pl?q=
usaf&showurl=/mail/2009/Q1/
mail558.html

and, http://www.pournelle.com/mail/
2009/Q1/mail559.html#airpower

<http://www.strategypage.com/
htmw/htmoral/articles/20091102.aspx>

Solar cost hype

2009-11-08T22:22:14-06:00

Solar cost hype

Dr. Pournelle,

Your correspondent wrote " See it? That little black square in the middle of Saudi Arabia? It's 231 kilometres on a side, covering some fifty-three thousand square kilometres."

Please check me on this, or throw my calculations on the mercy of your other readers. Just playing around, I'm finding a quote for solar panels at about $190 U.S. per square meter in bulk. With thumbs and a calculator, I'm getting that cells alone would cost about $10 trillion. You might be able to beat that unit cost. Generously only doubling my number for the cost of rest (e.g. structure and power controller), costs for that one plant is $20 trillion. I'm sure someone in Saudi has that.

The energy efficiency rating quoted to get the 53k^2 number is an ideal based on clear-day noon output in a factory new panel. Ignoring transport losses, transmission infrastructure, and without a ready means of storage, you'd need a plant that size at about every other time zone -- a dozen or so around the equator -- to get a constant power delivery @ $20 T. While we're at it, also ignore the political cooperation you'd need to share all that power with all the nimby countries who aren't on the equator and hosting the plants -- or even the agreements you'd need for day-side countries to share with night-side countries.

Cells degrade over time. In about 20 years (about the time you finish building the first set), you'd need to replace about 30% of your capacity, just to break even. Also, as your neighbor Ed Begley demonstrates on television, cells don't produce well when covered with dust -- they need cleaning. Maybe Saudia Arabia isn't the best site after all, but regardless, someone is going to have to sweep your initially 650 ish thousand square kilometers of cell power plants. When they get done, they can start on that extra 195k square klicks you'll need to add every couple decades. Think on the scale of cleaning Texas, then going on and getting Arkansas while you're at it (it'd take 20-30 years, trust me: in bad winters we can't even get ice off our roads in a week). That's job security you can believe in. It'll work so long as we don't need sovereignty or greater capacity, and while the weather holds out.

Personally, I prefer your approach of avoiding weather, night-time production, transport issues, the nimby international politics, and some of the maintenance by setting the plants in orbit on a national basis. However, I think nuclear plants are still the better choice, one for which the technology exists now, and I think your nuclear power estimates were lower than the real setup cost of solar. Another correspondent mentioned limited uranium reserves, but didn't mention plutonium or thorium based power generation. We've got a load of the former material just sitting around waiting to go back into bomb casings.

-d

I am not on record as believing in any kind of large centralized solar plants. I do think they can be very useful as distributed power generators. Depends on time and place.

Nuclear Costs

2009-11-08T22:22:13-06:00

Nuclear Costs

"Westinghouse claims its Advanced PWR reactor, the AP1000, will cost USD $1500-$1800 per KW for the first reactor and may fall to USD $1200 per KW for subsequent reactors. They also claim these will be ready for electricity production 3 years after first pouring concrete. " http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2323

Part of a rather good article on the whole subject.

If nuclear at $6-8bn a reactor is "competitive against other technologies" imagine it at $1.2bn. Probably even undercut China's cheap coal based energy on which their booming economy has been built. The rest of the cost is regulatory. I think government regulation overall destroys about 50% of the potential economy

Neil Craig

I think there is no consensus on the actual costs of reactors, but I am pretty sure there is agreement that a good half of it has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with the Trial Lawyers Association: France doesn't pay what we do. It's the legal eagles who profit.

I would still put the cost of a 1000 MW reactor at no more than 4 billion for the first one, and if you build 100 the last one will be less than $1 billion. I can defend that with numbers, but it seems intuitive as well.

The Ether, Light Waves, And Etc.

2009-11-08T22:22:12-06:00

The Ether, Light Waves, And Etc.

Jerry ---

Just read your speculation about the New Ether (heh!) being, or possibly being able to be, the dark matter that is "observed" in the universe. I like it. Whether or not it's true or not, however...

Your speculation generates a thought:

The "vacuum" has been shown (Casimir effect) to be populated by virtual particles coming into and out of existence in every square, um, inch of spacetime, at all times, with the timescales, of course, being very, very small.

That sounds to *me* like a stroboscopic version of the ether.

Just a thought...

--- Tim Kyger

Scientific Truth in my Thomistic/Popperian view is a statement that generates falsifiable hypotheses which haven't been falsified. (I will leave Eternal Truth and Revelation for another discussion). I haven't yet seen data that falsifies my hypothesis, but then I haven't looked hard at the actual professional literature. It does seem to me that there is something wrong with special relativity given some modern evidence like synchronization of the GPS clocks -- which are certainly moving relative to each other as well as relative to the transmitter that updates their time stamps, so under special relativity as I understand it they can't really be synchronized -- but GPS only works if they are synchronized to nanoseconds. That data have been known for years, but special relativity is still accepted, which may be a comment on my lack of understanding of the explanations, but it may also be a comment on consensus in science: who would fund an experimentum crucis on special relativity? Assuming there is one that everyone would accept as crucial.

How eInk works.

2009-11-08T22:22:11-06:00

Subject: How eInk works.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/11/01/e_ink_technology/

Tracy Walters, CISSP

Follow $

2009-11-08T22:22:10-06:00

Follow $

Jerry,

Even the New York Times can eventually figure out to follow the money:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/
business/energy-environment/03gore.html

<snip>

Critics, mostly on the political right and among global warming skeptics, say Mr. Gore is poised to become the world’s first “carbon billionaire,” profiteering from government policies he supports that would direct billions of dollars to the business ventures he has invested in.

Representative Marsha Blackburn, Republican of Tennessee, asserted at a hearing this year <http://energycommerce.house.gov/
Press_111/20090424/transcript_20090424_ee.pdf> that Mr. Gore stood to benefit personally from the energy and climate policies he was urging Congress to adopt.

Mr. Gore says that he is simply putting his money where his mouth is.<snip>

Chronically ill people 'happier if they abandon hope', say docs

2009-11-08T22:22:09-06:00

Chronically ill people 'happier if they abandon hope', say docs

Jerry,

My ‘Conspiracy Theory’ antenna just started spinning…what if the ‘researchers’ are getting us ready for ObamaCare and the Last Year of Life syndrome.

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/11/02/best_just_give_up/

Chronically ill people 'happier if they abandon hope', say docs

Promises to 'reconnect bowels' make people sad

By Lewis Page

Posted in Biology, 2nd November 2009 12:26 GMT

Health researchers in America have suggested that it is better for people suffering from severe illness to give up any hope that their condition might improve.

“Hope is an important part of happiness,” said Dr Peter A Ubel, one of the authors of the "happily hopeless" study, “but there’s a dark side of hope".

Essentially, according to Ubel and his colleagues, it's often better to just resign yourself to how awful things are rather than raging against your situation and hoping desperately that it will get better.

The doctors based this on surveys of patients who had their colons removed. Some were told that was it, they were on colostomy bags for life; others were informed that doctors would "reconnect their bowels" at some future date. Apparently the first group reported higher levels of happiness over the next six months.

“We think they were happier because they got on with their lives. They realized the cards they were dealt, and recognized that they had no choice but to play with those cards,” says Ubel, who was teamed up with social scientist George Loewenstein on the study.

The better-living-through-bad-news profs say that the same psychology is seen in other situations. It's better, they argue, to have your spouse die than to have them divorce you.

“If your husband or wife dies, you have closure. There aren’t any lingering possibilities," says Loewenstein.

The very worst thing a doctor can do, according to the profs, is to sugar-coat any medical bad news, or to rashly lay any stress on chances of survival or recovery.

“Hopeful messages may not be in the best interests of the patient and may interfere with the patient’s emotional adaptation,” says Ubel. “I don’t think we should take hope away. But I think we have to be careful about building up people’s hope so much that they put off living their lives."

There's more from Michigan Uni here http://www2.med.umich.edu/prmc/
media/newsroom/details.cfm?ID=1359 . �

Tracy Walters, CISSP

Social science, voodoo science...

So do the grouches of the world still need to apologize? -

Not Earth shattering, but I was amused by this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/
lifestyleMolt/idUSTRE5A10ZP20091102

R, Rose

Dell chief stuffs data center into suitcase

2009-11-08T22:22:08-06:00

Dell chief stuffs data center into suitcase

It occurs to me that a market exists for this…either develop and sell boxes to clients that could be prepositioned in a disaster situation…they could literally put them anywhere they had power and access to communication lines….they could even be updated to keep current along with the in place systems.

…or build boxes ready to ship and contract with a customer for a monthly fee guaranteeing the system to be onsite within 24 hours and operational within 48 hours of a disaster call. You could shelve several of these at a central hub (like UPS or Fedex), keep them current with updates from a software and hardware perspective, depending on the customer need and willingness to pay the fee.

Could be a paradigm for a new business opportunity if someone were willing to take it on.

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/10/27/data_center_in_a_briefcase/

Tracy

eBooks and reading more

2009-11-08T22:22:07-06:00

Subject: eBooks and reading more

Jerry,

Re: the conversation on eBooks, and the idea that people are reading more because of them. I am an avid reader…I have been since discovering Tom Swift and the Hardy Boys in 4th grade…umm…let’s just say it was sometime in the middle of the last century. I’m now on my fourth eBook now having gone through an eBook Reader, a Sony Reader, and my second Kindle.

I would propose that Amazon’s assumption that electronic book reading people are reading more is probably flawed. I am reading more books from Amazon, simply because they are easier to get on the Kindle and I can start reading right away, which Amazon would view as increased business from me. It’s also making me branch out a bit more, because the book I want is not always available on the Kindle, so I’ll look around a bit for new material. The point is, I’m in a regular bookstore much less than I used to be, I may make a monthly trip now as opposed to weekly trips before, so I’m buying far fewer books from Barnes & Noble or Borders.

I do read a lot as I spend a lot of time on airplanes and I don’t like working during those periods. Speaking of which…I really wish the airlines would address eBooks and let us read them for the first and last 10 minutes of the flight…it’s annoying to have to turn it off during taxi, takeoff and reaching 10,000 feet…I don’t believe the eBook generates enough power to interfere with the flight instruments (obviously the Kindle and other books can’t be in wireless mode during any part of the flight). I also read every night before bed and often when I have a few minutes during the day. My Kindle goes everywhere with me…in the car, on the airplane, on my Harley, and I find it much easier to load the Kindle with a dozen books before I go overseas than to carry that many with me.

I’d probably read just as much or nearly as much if I didn’t have a eBook reader, although it does make it more convenient to catch a few minutes with my nose in the book, and perhaps the time I would have spent driving to and from the bookstore is spent in other ways, including reading.

I also wish the Kindle did a better job of formatting Adobe documents ….I wouldn’t mind sending some Adobe documents from work to the Kindle so I could review them at various times…even share them with others wirelessly.

Certainly eBooks are changing the landscape for many of us….and not just early adopters of technology.

Tracy Walters, CISSP

I don't think an ebook generates enough anything to harm an airplane but the simple thing to do is turn off the wireless part of it. And I agree about Kindle formatting of pdf. But over time things are happening...

: Solar Power

2009-11-08T22:22:04-06:00

: Solar Power

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_o30sCBMjTtk/SusH3gTRjuI/AAAAAAAAAWE/UDg1nj-_VWc/s320/solar+power+area+on+globe.png

See it? That little black square in the middle of Saudi Arabia? It's 231 kilometres on a side, covering some fifty-three thousand square kilometres. That's the total area of solar panels needed to supply global electricity needs at its current rate of consumption, some 2 trillion Watts. Calculated by Professor Raymond Pierrehumbert of Chicago University, in an open letter <http://bit.ly/3Pdk0i> that corrects global-warming denying innumeracy in Superfreakonomics.

http://unlikelyworlds.blogspot.com/2009/10/solar-power-footprint.html

Hidden Solar Cells: 3-D System Based On Optical Fiber Could Provide New Options For Photovoltaics

"Using this technology, we can make photovoltaic generators that are foldable, concealed and mobile," said Zhong Lin Wang, a Regents professor in the Georgia Tech School of Materials Science and Engineering.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2009/11/091102172517.htm

Bill Shields

The chief problem with solar power is the expense of storage; and of course it is irregular and not entirely reliable...

Monday Mail Roundup 2

2009-11-08T22:22:02-06:00

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust,

2009-11-08T22:22:00-06:00

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust,

Jerry

Want to know why it hasn't felt like a depression? The pain has been deferred:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/
9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html

Hmm. Negative interest rates are here, for the rest of the world. Very interesting.

Critter arithmetic

The White House says the stimulus package has created or saved 640,329 jobs. I'd hate to be the 640,330th person.

Meanwhile 2.2 million jobs have been lost. In my day we would have subtracted one number from the other, giving a net loss.

But with the new math we have a gain, alongside the loss.

Discussion of Special Relativity

2009-11-08T22:22:23-06:00

On Special Relativity

Your cocktail party theory on ether

Dear Jerry,

Linking Dark Matter/Dark Energy and ether is not so far fetched at all: http://www.space.com/
scienceastronomy/080211-
mm-dark-unification.html and http://www.eurekalert.org/
pub_releases/2006-08/ns-ert082306.php.

I would define a wave as "a cyclic changing of state over distance". I guess the key question is "change of state of what?" Michelson and Morley removed the "what". It seems to be returning. This also seems to suggest that gravity can be manipulated so maybe gravity drives are not as farfetched as before.

Taking honours physics at McGill I got to look at Michelson's notebooks; this was an elegant experiment and his notes were beautifully written. It isn't that they did an experiment badly, more that we need to figure out why they got the result they did if there is an ether.

Best, Michael

If there is an ether that is affected by gravity, then it will be entangled and one would not expect the Michelson Morley experiment to find an ether wind caused by the Earth's movement through the ether -- least not until one got a long way from the Earth, to, say, the L5 Point or beyond.

GPS needs quasars

GPS will only work if the Earth's position is known so precisely that only quasars plus other recent high tech will do the job.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33605919/
ns/technology_and_science-space/

GPS orbiters and relativity

I asked a physicist I know about this. His answer:

"The errors caused by Special Relativity are on the order of a half of a nanosecond per second, which is about a half of a foot in distance. If you didn't account for special relativity in the time of one orbit there would be an error of many feet. BUT the clocks know about special relativity and correct their time signals so that they "look right" in the coordinate frame of the surface of the earth. The fact that the correction works is actually an indication that special relativity is correct."

I have heard that also; I have also heard it questioned. I am not qualified to choose between those who say there's an anomaly and those who say this is a proof: I know people who are so qualified who will argue either way. As I said, it's a cocktail party discussion.

Dark Matter and the Size of the Universe

Jerry,

I would like to pose a three questions concerning Dark Matter.

Is the deficit in the observed matter in the Universe based on the perceived size of the Universe?

What if the perceived size of the Universe is larger than the actual size? (The "straight line" distance between two objects in the universe is less that the distance that the light from these objects must travel.)

If these are true do we need to postulate dark matter to make up the perceived deficit?

Bob Holmes

The perceived size of the universe changes like dreams. I have no idea. Special Relativity is counter intuitive-- even Einstein said that and sometimes he seems to have had some doubts -- but that hardly means it is not true. The universe is not only queerer than we imagine, but...

As a general comment on the whole thing, let me say I have no dog in this hunt. I do find Beckmann's challenges to special relativity, particularly what I think is an anomaly of the aberration of spectral binaries, somewhat intriguing, but it's no more than that. I do not believe that the United States has billions of dollars riding on the question -- unlike the consensus view of Global Warming. Special and General Relativity fermented great activity in the scientific world; a finding that the theories don't explain all the data would probably do the same, and that would be a benefit. Of course admission of that would make obsolete a lot of what we think we know, but that is the way of science...

And see below

H Beam Piper Memorial scheduled 7 November

2009-11-08T22:22:15-06:00

An Announcement from the former Senior Editor at Chaos Manor

H. Beam Piper Memorial

Hi Jerry,

Just thought I'd let you know that the new H. Beam Piper Memorial Stone will be unveiled on Saturday, November 7th, 2009, at Fairview Cemetery in Altoona, Pennsylvania at 3:00 p.m. I welcome you, as well as all of your readers and subscribers who are fans of H. Beam Piper, to attend.

This has been a three-year effort and I'd like to thank all of you who contributed to the Memorial Fund and welcome you to the Memorial unveiling. Thanks to the generosity of almost a hundred fans we were able to raise over $5,000 toward the Memorial stone. I went to Fairview Cemetery last week to oversee the stone setting. All I can say is this monument is gorgeous -- even more than even I had hoped for.

Finally, a fitting tribute to H. Beam Piper, the man who has brought us all so much reading pleasure and provided so many stimulating ideas and new worlds. For those of you who are in the State College area, Dennis Frank and I will be meeting at the Waffle Shop on Atherton at 10:00 am on the 7th. We encourage you to join us there. (Contact me via e-mail for details.) From there we will caravan to Altoona for the Piper Memorial unveiling.

For more information on the Memorial and H. Beam Piper visit: http://h-beampiper.com/

Your friend,

John Carr

Nuclear power costs

2009-11-08T22:21:55-06:00

SCRIBD

2009-11-08T22:22:06-06:00

News on Scribd

Dr. Pournelle,

I saw this on a litigation news reporter I subscribe to and thought you might have some interest. Mssg below:

Andrews Telecommunications Industry Litigation Reporter October 28, 2009

Online

PUBLISHING SITE COMMITTED MASSIVE COPYRIGHT VIOLATIONS, CLASS ACTION SAYS

Scott v. Scribd Inc.

In addition to wholesale, direct infringement, a filtering system used by online publishing and document repository Web site Scribd itself infringes the copyrights of authors whose works it purports to protect, according to a putative class-action lawsuit.

Scott v. Scribd Inc., No. 09-CV-03039, complaint filed (S.D. Tex., Houston Div. Sept. 18, 2009).

Author Elaine Scott filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas, seeking to lead a class of all authors whose copyrights Scribd has infringed.

Scott describes herself as a successful children's book author. In a strongly worded complaint, she accuses the defendant of being an “egregious infringer” that has “broken barriers to copyright infringement on a global scale” and “shamelessly profits from the stolen copyrighted works of innumerable authors.”

Scott also takes issue with Scribd's system for dealing with copyright infringement. When the company receives a notice of infringement from a copyright holder, it removes the work in question and archives it in a filtering system to keep it from being uploaded again. Under the guise of helping authors, this practice still constitutes infringement and benefits Scribd, the complaint alleges.

Under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. � 512, operators of Web sites are not normally liable for damages stemming from any information posted to them. However, Scribd is not entitled to such protection, Scott says, because it directly profits from copyright infringement.

Further, the company allegedly fails to maintain a designated agent to receive notices of infringement.

The complaint alleges copyright infringement.

Scott seeks a declaration that Scribd is not protected by the DMCA's “safe harbor” provisions. She also seeks damages, costs, injunctive relief and attorney fees.

According to the complaint, Scott will seek a ruling on her DMCA declaration on an “expedited basis.”

She is represented by K.A.D. Camara of Camara & Sibley in Houston, TX. Company: Scribd Inc.

Smart grid

2009-11-08T22:22:05-06:00

Smart Grid

I've worked for several of the largest utilities in the country, so this is first hand knowledge.

The utility companies are pretty well stuck. They've been vilified by the current administration only slightly less than insurance companies. As regulated utilities, they have a moral and ethical duty to provide safe, reliable, inexpensive power to their consumers, yet they've been hijacked by the green movement. In many places, rather than building clean-coal plants for example, which are the cheapest generation capacity currently available, they are building wind and solar facilities with are the most expensive. More important, these new technologies are unreliable, and can only be used for peak power demands, rather than base-load generation. Power storage technology simply isn't advanced enough to address the situation on a large scale, and across every climate in the country. Even if we had additional generation capacity, we don't have the transmission capacity to move the power to population centers.

As demand increases, we are headed for widespread brown and blackouts, and the utilities know it. The lead time on new plants can be up to 25 years, and transmission lines can be 10 years. For some, Smart Grid is a desperate attempt to stave off the inevitable for a few more years by reducing power consumption, since they can't build cost- effective new base load generation capacity (coal, gas, hydro, nuclear), for others, it's simply a means to advance a green agenda and control our standard of living, and for the rest, a way to boost profits and defer costs.

What they call Smart Grid has been wrapped up in nice pretty packaging, but from the consumer standpoint it involves installing a meter that has two-way transmission capability. This will allow them to do several things, beginning with automated meter reading, and moving on to variable rates, which means charging different rates at different times of the day. Later, it could allow them to ration power, create rolling brown/blackouts on a property by property basis, and expand the use of 'saver switches' on a mandatory basis to turn off certain appliances (e.g. dryers and air conditioners) whenever the utility company (or in theory, the hacker) wants. I have yet to have anyone explain to me how letting the utilities (and government) monitor and manage my power usage benefits me. It doesn't.

Now there are modifications to the electric grid itself, but those are somewhat different. Until recently, the grid was managed using a protocol called SCADA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCADA , which is not accessible outside the SCADA network. That software has been written and tested over many many years, and works very well. Currently there are modifications underway to transition that network over to TCP/IP. It's not so much that there is new software, as that there's a new protocol.

Of course there will be firewalls, and private networks and other mechanisms to prevent remote access, but we all know that those aren't perfect. So essentially, we're moving from a network that is non- routable to the Internet, to one that is routable to the Internet. I'm not so much worried about solar flares bringing down the grid (which can still happen), rather somewhat concerned about hackers doing so. It's probably not a huge risk, but it is definitely non- zero.

In this case, the primary motivator behind the transition is money. SCADA requires the construction of dedicated network lines to each facility to be controlled, which are expensive. It requires knowledge of an increasingly arcane technology, and specialized, low-volume hardware components. By moving to TCP/IP they can leverage existing network links, reuse existing hardware and software, and reduce costs. Not a bad motivator, but security and reliability have somewhat taken a back seat.

So the net is, that Smart Grid doesn't do much for the consumer at all. For people that are retired, spend most of the time at home (or work there), it will likely result in significantly increased utility bills for those who need to use air conditioning, or like to do laundry during the day. I see zero benefit for the consumer in the long run, and many paths to future crises.

Dr. Pournelle,

I see a different reason for the smart grid. One that doesn't even require the grid to be reliable.

One of the favorite methods of determining unpaid taxes in the underground economy is to divide economic activity by power usage. When there is much power used that doesn't get reported on taxes, one has found an excellent place to audit. An example is growing marijuana under electric lights. Another is working a factory off the books. Alternative energy threatens to take this method away from the taxman.

I believe the smart grid is simply intended to preserve this method of social control and to extend it. Currently this method only extends to areas and groups. It is a back-office method that, however useful, does not cover individuals. With the smart grid power use may be admissible in court. Also, it is paid for by the consumer. Finally, it becomes more accurate.

For the government, what's not to love?

Yours,

David Bullis

The purpose of government is to hire and pay government workers; to this end it must collect taxes since it has no other reliable source of income...

Nuclear Power

2009-11-08T22:22:03-06:00

We have mail on nuclear power

Nuclear piece from Monday's mail on cost of new plants

Jerry, appreciate the support for nuclear in yesterday’s mail <http://jerrypournelle.com/view/2009/Q4/view595.html#Monday> .

The cost for a new nuclear plant in the US, however, is more in the range of $6-$8B per plant. Maybe one day we could get it down to $2B but not anytime soon. Even though they’re expensive to build, new nuclear plants are still competitive against other technologies because of their low operating costs. Below is a link where you can find a Nuclear Energy Institute paper titled "The Cost of New Generating Capacity in Perspective": http://www.nei.org/financialcenter/. This paper could give you a good start on finding information on the economics and finance of new nuclear power plants in the US if you’re interested.

Regards,

David Bradish

NEI

That is the cost in the present US legal environment; it is not what it would cost if we took energy independence seriously, and give it a national security priority. Simple legal changes would bring the price down by half simply by taking uncertainties out of the process. Having to have a bunch of capital committed but not working while the legal buzzards circle is one of the major costs. In France they don't cost so much. Nor in Japan.

Nuclear economy

Hi.

You said in http://jerrypournelle.com/view/2009/Q4/view595.html#Monday that

"One estimate is that 500 nuclear power plants would make America energy independent."

Keep in mind that we've got about a 100-year supply of uranium at our current rate of consumption (A) using current once-through technology and (B) at about the current price of uranium ($130/kgU -> ~0.4�/kW•h). To quintuple nuclear power, we need to expand production considerably and/or shift to breeder reactors. Fortunately, both are possible.

http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/cohen.html

the Integral Fast Reactor http://bravenewclimate.com/ or the Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (aka Molten Salt Reactor) http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/

Or more speculatively, Bussard's polywell fusion, or Lerner's focus fusion, http://www.economist.com/
sciencetechnology/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14698355 .

-- Bill Woods

Doc Bussard was a long time friend. There are new technologies in the technology stream, but for now we don't need them to get going. If we had turned to nuclear power on 12 September 2001 where might we be now? We would not be in Iraq and we would have gone to Afghanistan and got out again. And as we stop buying oil from the Middle East the need for involvement there would be smaller and small. Of course I was saying all this before the FIRST Gulf War.

I think most people who think about these matters KNOW these things, but apparently those who control our destiny find other interests more important. All I can do is keep trying to get the message out.

The way to make an economy boom is to have low cost energy and freedom.

Nuclear and transportation is an easy enough problem.

1) Build nuclear plants in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Michigan's Bay area--anywhere with coal and water. 2) Set up a co-generation facility where the steam from the plant and the coal extracted locally are used in Fischer–Tropsch generation of petrochemicals (including transportation fuels).

It reduces resistance to nuclear from the coal producers by both directly adding jobs in coal-producing areas and by creating a new market for coal. It serves national security/energy independence purposes by moving the source of transportation fuel to domestic resources. It cuts carbon emissions less than the Sierra Club wants, but still some when you move the energy base of the country from coal-and-oil to coal-and-nuclear. Make the nukes fast reactors with on-site waste reprocessing, and they can even eliminate the problem of long-term nuclear waste storage, since you consume all the actinides.

Is it more expensive energy than the late-1990s coal-oil base? Sure. It's also long-term stable-priced energy from domestic resources. But since you're building new infrastructure, you have to beat the NIMBYs and BANANAs and the anti-nukes to do it.

-- Steven Ehrbar

We send a trillion a year to the Near East.

Nuclear power plants

… or, politically even easier, the Administration could direct 1/4-1/3 of the outstanding unallocated stimulus funds toward building nuclear power plants, thus “creating and saving” jobs in their most-favored locations in to-be-rewarded-for-political-support states. It would get the ball rolling. And, allocating more money wouldn’t necessarily get them built any faster than could be done with this level of funding (due to limited resources and ramp-up time), nor get any more built during this administration’s reign. As you say, it would work…

Allen P

It would work.

Doom: if despair is a sin, is Pelagianism?

2009-11-08T22:22:01-06:00

Subj: State of the US: Rome vs Byzantium or Lions vs Foxes?

Might it make more sense to understand the current state of the US using the framework of Pareto's "Circulation of the Elites", with its oscillation between Lions-dominated and Foxes-dominated states, than using the framework of unidirectional Imperial degeneration?

Did not Jefferson, for example, have in mind more a cyclical pattern for the unfolding of the then-future history of the US, with his famous "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is its natural manure."?

Is Despair the only appropriate form of Pessimism for our current predicament?

Perhaps "We Are Doomed", as the title of John Derbyshire's most recent book puts it, but are we Doomed to annihilation, or merely to occasional, perhaps even periodic, less-than-annihilating catastrophes? Are we living on a live volcano, or merely on a coast that gets hit by hurricanes every few years?

Is not the expectation that we can Restore the Republic, and then bask forever after in serene Republican security and contentment, merely another form of the Pelagian doctrine of perfectibility?

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Conservatism and libertarianism are vectors, not scalars; I do not expect the restoration of the Republic, but moving in that direction is still the right idea. Being governed by national interests and not social theories still works better. Being objective about the world is still a good idea.

I agree, we are not going to restore the Old Republic; but then I never expected to. Conservatism as I see it is a set of principles and a map of some dangers and swamps to avoid; it is not an ideology, and I have never insisted on ideological purity. I would prefer a centrist nation with two parties, neither of which had any real ideological commitment to anything except to capture control of government, so that one chooses candidates on googoo -- good government -- principles. Of course that too is unlikely.

I thought the Seventy Years War was a live volcano, and I was a Cold Warrior most of my life; I had to compromise a number of conservative principles to do so. Perhaps too many. Perhaps we ought to have fought harder against domestic ideologies than against the USSR, but the USSR did pose an existential threat, and for a while communism was vcry much on the march. It wasn't efficient but if it could expand and let war feed war the eventual result was inevitable.

The US has great internal strength. And do note that life was often good in Imperial Rome; it was when the resource base failed that things got grim at home. Of course the Emperor was no longer a Roman, and his staff were no longer Romans, but surely that isn't going to happen to us? The President has to be natural born, and the Chief of Staff has to be confirmed by the Senate and above reproach?

My friend the Derb is a bit more pessimistic than I am.

More on climate

2009-11-08T22:21:59-06:00

Climate

Jerry

(1) This Youtube video from Viscount Monckton came via e-mail yesterday with the note attached:

This speech was made October 14, 2009 In Minnesota!

This has got to be disseminated quickly so that perhaps something can be done to stop this absolute madness. This is the most scary thing I have seen to date and it is going to happen very, very fast – in a matter of days. This is a relatively short video – PLEASE TAKE A FEW MINUTES TO WATCH IT.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMe5dOgbu40

(2) This page appears to be an outline of the treaty. On a quick scan (all I have time for this AM) I can neither confirm nor deny the Viscount's charges that it sets up a new world government that he expects the US to cede sovereignty to. (Conversely, the Viscount seems to know little about the ratification process; such a thing would never be ratified).

http://assets.wwf.ca/downloads/wwf_proposal_copenhagen_climatetreaty.pdf

(3) The official web site of the Copenhagen Council. http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/

Linked from the Wiki for Copenhagen Climate Council.

(4) Official web sites of the Copenhagen Climate Conference 2009

http://www.erantis.com/events/
denmark/copenhagen/climate-
conference-2009/index.htm http://en.cop15.dk/

I've got to head out, but this is crucial. Hopefully the network can pick up on more.

Jim

<http://www.erantis.com/events/
denmark/copenhagen/climate-
conference-2009/index.htm>

I doubt it is that urgent. Treaties take a long time, and the Senate isn't in a rush to hand over US sovereignty to Al Gore. We do need to get past cap and trade.

"For shame, Scientific American"

That's the final comment of Lewis Page in his discussion of SA's current cover article all about how wind, sun and water renewable energy will save us all.

Julie

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/10/26/jacobson_sciam_globo_renewables_bit/

Harry Erwin's Letter from England

2009-11-08T22:21:58-06:00

Harry Erwin's Letter From England

The academic cartoonist Jorge Cham had a run-in with the UK Borders Agency when he came here to lecture and ended up being deported. Go to <http://www.phdcomics.com/> and see the series of strips beginning 10/26/2009. Cham has hispanic and oriental parents and did a PhD in Mechanical Engineering at Stanford. He then was a full-time instructor and researcher at Caltech for three years before becoming a full-time cartoonist. This is not an uncommon experience for foreign (non-EU) academics in the UK--see this THE story: <http://tinyurl.com/yhdczv8>.

The Royal Mail strike continues: <http://tinyurl.com/yg5zxn5>. The Tories are getting fed up: <http://tinyurl.com/yfgh676>.

Labour under fire as recession continues in the UK and the US returns to growth. "The UK now has a smaller economy than Italy." <http://tinyurl.com/ygnejcf > <http://tinyurl.com/yfrocot>

New UK Supreme Court questions the vetting scheme. <http://tinyurl.com/ygb86h9 >

Phorm in court: <http://tinyurl.com/yf3g3vv> <http://tinyurl.com/yhlomzt>

Nimrod problems: <http://tinyurl.com/yl86rjz>--the shortcut culture. <http://tinyurl.com/yg7m5tk >

UK helicopter problems: <http://tinyurl.com/yks53rg>

Chief drug advisor sacked: <http://tinyurl.com/ylsc4x2> <http://tinyurl.com/yetayzr > <http://tinyurl.com/yjoyuts> <http://tinyurl.com/ykzjvwb> <http://tinyurl.com/ydvrxm6 >

Harry Erwin, PhD

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

I have a column to get out the door, so not much will be done today.

2009-11-09T15:10:01-06:00

I have a column to get out the door, so not much will be done today.

The fallout from the House vote on health care continues. Apparently the Democrats are determined to show their power despite indications that much of the nation doesn't want 1,000 pages of new health care laws. It is a naked transfer of wealth, with a tax on high incomes to pay for benefits for low incomes; and a heavy cut in middle class health care benefits in Medicare.

The implications for the future are profound. We already hear the triumphalism of Nancy Pelosi.

I would have thought that the Obama administration is at least as responsible...

2009-11-08T22:21:47-06:00

I would have thought that the Obama administration is at least as responsible for the US response to the Swine Flu problem as the Bush administration ever was for the New Orleans response to Katrina, but the media are not reporting it that way. I wonder how those who stood in long lines for hours only to find that there is no vaccine feel about the government's coming takeover of the entire health care system? Will the new health care system work more smoothly than does, say, FEMA? Is there any reason to think so?

Still no vote as of 1650. The longer the vote is delayed, the more likely that it won't pass. But Nancy Pelosi is smiling, and claims to have 218 votes. Mourn the Republic.

Health Care Bill Day

2009-11-08T22:21:46-06:00

Health Care Bill Day

Unemployment is over 10%. It wasn't supposed to get that high. TARP was supposed to fix that.

Meanwhile today may be the most important vote in Congress since the days of the New Deal. If the health care bill passes, it will fundamentally convert these United States into a different kind of popular democracy, which generally means rule by a unionized bureaucracy organized to vote. Once that much of the economy is run by government, economic recovery as many hope for will simply be impossible.

Permanent unemployment at 7% or so; median income perhaps 10% higher than it is now, but not much higher; and a long period of stagflation. Reluctance to take on new employees, and great incentive to export jobs. Is this a picture of the future? We will have to see, as Congress debates the health care and carbon tax bills.

One of the big debating points is over abortion. That is certainly in important moral point, but the creation of an enormous entitlement overshadows it. At least under this bill, illegal immigrants can't be jailed for not buying government approved health insurance. The rest of us can be. I have no idea what happens to those my age. I gather that it pretty well eliminates the Medicare Advantage that pays most of my Kaiser dues. This all promises to be interesting.

With Detroit a ruin and manufacturing industries on the ropes, small business is the only possible engine of recovery from what they don't call a Depression; so the Congress is going to add an 8% tax on employing people. We already have the longest period of increasing unemployment since the Great Depression; I presume we are going for a really big record setting period of increasing unemployment.

What incentives people have to invest and create new jobs in this environment is pretty murky now; with the health bill there will be fewer incentives to invest in new jobs in the US. The incentives are now to the job black market -- hire illegal immigrants who don't have to have health insurance -- or to export the job if that can possibly be done.

Meanwhile the credit index is way down: people aren't borrowing or lending, meaning investment is down. Moving money around in circles keeps Wall Street going, but next year the Bush tax cuts expire, meaning a new round of higher taxes to go with the new taxes of the health care and carbon taxes, and the new regulations. And with a trillion dollar deficit the incentive to add surtaxes is overwhelming, thus again confiscating money from the successful -- money that otherwise would have been invested. Perhaps the government can invest for us with a new TARP?

Parts of the economy will thrive, but then some made good money during the Great Depression. The incentive will be to tax those who continue to do well, meaning they won't invest either, and will spend more on tax avoidance rather than making more money. We have seen that spiral before; the remedy was to cut taxes, but that is not a politically viable incentive.

Without investment there isn't a lot of job creation. Companies thrive by getting more work from fewer workers. That's good for the productive (who will have to work harder to pay their increased taxes) but doesn't do much for those without jobs. Unemployment compensation and welfare do not create jobs nor do they get people employed. Government employees don't increase production and wealth, but they have to be paid for what they do; and that takes more out of the economy. The spiral continues. When we do recover we may consider getting where we are now to be a great thing.

In other words: Have we seen the end of the good times? Tax rates go up, but government revenues keep going down. And down. Raising tax rates doesn't seem to make the government much more money. And unemployment goes up. And the beat goes on.

A new Great Depression is not inevitable, but each time there is another transfer of resources to the government, it becomes more likely. The trick to survival is to find niches where one can thrive or at least hang on in the midst of the downward spiral. Who is succeeding in today's Detroit? It would be worth studying those survivalists...

It's also worth considering vegetable gardens. I wish I were kidding.

The other survival tool is to learn a lot more about the tax laws. The return on investment from knowing more about tax laws is probably higher than the return on investment from increasing productivity.

The politically correct spin is coming like a tidal wave. He is a crazy guy...

2009-11-08T22:21:45-06:00

The politically correct spin is coming like a tidal wave. He is a crazy guy who happens to be a Muslim. All of that misses the point: he was disloyal to the United States, and said so openly and many times; yet he remained a commissioned officer of the United States. That is the point that is being overlooked. Whether the disloyalty is due to a psychotic episode or some other cause is not important.

Reaping the Whirlwind

2009-11-08T22:21:44-06:00

Reaping the Whirlwind

Section 3. Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court.

England was fond of declaring various actions treasonable, and convicting people of treason for activities that could be described as "loyal opposition." The Constitution nailed down the definition of Federal treason.

I would presume that arming oneself and shooting 43 US soldiers is (1) levying war against the United States, and (2) an overt act, and that Major Hassan should be charged with treason. I would further argue that prior to his actions he had made a number of overt acts which were evidence of adherence to their enemies, and he could have been charged with treason for those; but I won't argue the case too strongly.

I will argue that political correctness led to the madness of having someone who does not believe in the legitimacy of the war in Iraq practice psychiatry by counseling some of the most severely traumatized in the Iraqi war: that the instant he began to show doubts about the legitimacy of the War and an unwillingness to be deployed to participate in it, he ought at the very least to have been stripped of his commission and suffer whatever other consequences of failing to fulfill his part of the contract under which the United States paid for both his undergraduate and his medical education in return for his service as a medical officer.

Richard Weaver wrote an important book called Ideas Have Consequences. It's one book that everyone ought to read as an undergraduate, but the title makes an important point. Political correctness was the cause of the Fort Hood Massacre, and we ought not forget that. The fact that someone could go through -- at government expense -- an undergraduate education with ROTC, then medical school at a US military institution, and remain a traitor to the United States is a significant warning. A very significant warning that the idea of Political Correctness has consequences we can't afford. Corruption of the Legions is one danger the Republic cannot endure.

The Legions remain faithful; but for how long when their officers are no longer faithful? Hassan had been through ROTC and a US armed forces medical school as a commissioned officer. Why was his failure of loyalty to the armed forces not detected earlier? But of course he was a Muslim, and it would not be politically correct to wash someone out of an armed forces medical school for lack of loyalty to the armed forces of these United States.

We sow the wind. We have reaped one whirlwind.

I'm getting a late start and it's time for our walk.

2009-11-08T22:21:43-06:00

I'm getting a late start and it's time for our walk.

While I'm gone you can have a look at mail about cocktail party theories.

We have mail on many subjects including some general thoughts on philosophy...

2009-11-08T22:21:42-06:00

We have mail on many subjects including some general thoughts on philosophy of science. (I once studied that under Gustav Bergmann many long years ago, but that's another subject.)

Afghanistan:

2009-11-08T22:21:41-06:00

Afghanistan:

What is victory? If we define victory as a stable liberal democracy in Afghanistan with a government centralized in Kabul, then we can see the requirements: a very long term commitment, twenty years at the least with a large Army of special forces devoted to community organizing and development; better schools in rural Afghanistan than we have in the District of Columbia; health care clinics; and enough soldiers to protect those who become our friends from those who keep the Afghan tradition of distrust of Kabul and hatred of armed foreigners on their soil. That's a lot of soldiers.

If we are not prepared to make that commitment, what should we do?

If we cannot achieve victory, what can we achieve? And what is it that we want? If it were up to me, if I were trying an experiment in nation building, it would be in a nation that has something we want; Afghanistan has nothing we want exported to the United States.

As to what we can achieve, I suggest that we think in terms of silver bullets. If we pay the President of Afghanistan (AKA the Mayor of Kabul) enough he can bribe the war lords and tribal chiefs to exclude the enemies of the United States from their regions. We can pay well. Meanwhile we run an open market for opium. We'll buy all you can make, and pay good prices for it. It's up to you to get the stuff to us and avoid being killed by the Taliban who will forbid you to sell to us. The whole program will cost less in blood and treasure than the war, and the poppy market will give the farmers something they can grow for cash. We save that part of the cost of the War on Drugs that goes to intercepting heroin made from Afghan poppies.

Guy Fawkes Day

2009-11-08T22:21:40-06:00

Guy Fawkes Day

A Penny for the Guy...

Always remember the fifth of November,
Gunpowder treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
ever should be forgot...

Newt Gingrich said last night that he had endorsed the Republican candidate in upstate New York because she was the unanimous choice of the eleven Republican County Chairmen in the District. Precisely why they endorsed someone who would later withdraw and endorse a Democrat candidate is not known to me, and I doubt that Newt knows either. His advice to local party officials in New York state (where the Conservatives get to run a candidate or can endorse a candidate of another party; that's not a common situation in most states, and makes New York state politics unique) is that the Republican Party has to pay at least some attention to the local Conservative Party people in choices like this.

My observation is that parties and movements who can't generate party workers generally don't win. The ground game -- getting out the vote on election day -- remains fairly decisive, and one key to political influence remains: become a party activist and you get some influence. It is no longer true as it was in the 1950's and much of the 1960's that the US is in effect governed by about 50,000 self-selected Party Officials. Their influence and power have been greatly diluted by fund raisers and professional campaign people .

The so-called expertise of the army of mercenary political experts can be questioned. So can their commitment to any given political philosophy. It's hard to make a living as a political consultant unless you are willing to make fairly extensive compromises; it's easy to get in the habit of making compromise a goal, not a means to an end. The pay isn't all that good between campaigns, unless like Lyn Nofziger (whom I knew fairly well and admired) you do other consulting work. Lyn even co-wrote a couple of Western novels back in the slow times of Jerry Ford and Jimmy Carter before the Reagan resurgence.

The self-selected party workers still have influence over party philosophy. It's one reason why the "social conservatives" have the influence they have: the can turn out the shock troops, people who will stand in the rain at a shopping mall, drive voters to the polls, organize people in assisted living facilities to get absentee ballots and fill them out, and all the other not very colorful work that goes into the ground game. Most conservatives don't want to do that. As Russell Kirk used to say, "conservatism is enjoyment." Conservatives believe that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty, but it's not a price so many of them are prepared to pay. Vigilance, yes; but sporadic, intense vigilance. Supreme effort, then "I lie in possession. Let me sleep."

The self-selected Party Workers -- of both parties -- no longer have the influence they once had, but they have some.

Meanwhile, the gloves are off, and we have seen that the Change We Can Believe In -- health care 'reform', cap and trade, enormous deficits, nationalization of industries, regulations without limit imposed by regulators who are beyond any regulation but the Iron Law -- has awakened some of the sleepers.

Tuesday's by-election has had a large influence on the future of the health care and carbon tax bills; the great shift of Independents from Obama has them scared. This must not be exaggerated. Back room politics will still have great influence, and the news media are already spinning the by-election shift to minimize it. But by and large there is reason for joy if not great rejoicing.

From the Club for Growth on the upstate New York Congressional election:

2009-11-08T22:21:39-06:00

From the Club for Growth on the upstate New York Congressional election:

Party labels aside, conservatives lost nothing last night, as Scozzafava and Owens are both avowed liberals in support of Nancy Pelosi's agenda in the House of Representatives. Doug Hoffman was our only chance to bring real change to Washington, and in little more than a month, we almost helped him pull it off.

Recall that the reason the seat was vacant is that McHugh (formerly the Republican incumbent in that seat) accepted a position in the Obama administration. Winning the seat would have been encouraging, but the loss is not critical to conservative principles. The lesson to Republican Party officials is that the country remains center/right. When Clinton pronounced that the era of Big Government was over, a majority of the nation cheered. When Gingrich left Congress and the Republicans pulled the stake out of Big Government's heart and resurrected it, they lost support. Obama did not campaign as far left of Bill Clinton. He governs left but he didn't run from the left. He'll have to consider his options now.

For those who favor limited government and federalism the news from yesterday was good, perhaps not bracing, but certainly not depressing.

Coming up: another assessment of Afghanistan. What would we consider a victory in Afghanistan? Is that achievable? If so, is it achievable at a cost we are willing to pay? If not, and we must abandon Victory, then what must we do now?

Yesterday's by-election was encouraging. New Jersey...

2009-11-08T22:21:37-06:00

Yesterday's by-election was encouraging. New Jersey, as blue a state as you can get, now has a Republican governor. In Virginia the Republicans had a landslide. In upstate New York the country club republicans and rinos got an interesting message. Across the country the results have been encouraging, to the point that the Senate Democrats are now talking about further delays in the Health Care Bill That Was Demanded Before September.

If you are concerned about the rush to nationalize health care and carbon use, yesterday was a good day. Not as good as it might have been, but a good day. We'll take what we can get in this year of grace...

Tuesday View Roundup 4

2009-11-08T22:21:35-06:00

There's a bag of interesting mail. Including on nuclear power.

2009-11-08T22:21:34-06:00

There's a bag of interesting mail. Including on nuclear power.

Subject: A visit to the first Microsoft store

http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=669&tag=nl.e019

Tracy Walters, CISSP