Chaos Manor Musings

The Firemen decision by the court continues to excite discussion...

2009-07-02T15:30:03-06:00

The Firemen decision by the court continues to excite discussion, but I can't think why. Four members of the Supreme Court plus two more Appeals Court judges agreed with Sotomayor; hardly an indication of wild radicalism on her part. The decision ran to a surprising 100 pages and I still haven't been through all of it; but it doesn't look to me as if it settles much.

The problem, which every judge and city official is aware of although no one will talk about it, is that any g-loaded test is going to produce disparate racial results. Any g-loaded test will produce disproportionate numbers of Ashkenazi Jews, Orientals, and whites (in that order) at the high scoring end, and of Blacks and Latinos in the lower scoring group. We can argue about why this should be so, but everyone knows that will be the result. One can work very hard to produce a test that has absolutely nothing to do with race. The city of New Haven did just that. One can work very hard to produce a test that is highly relevant to the task, to the work performance to be predicted. The city of New Haven did just that. It will not change the results, which are about as certain as anything known in the social sciences. There will be significant racial disparities in the outcomes.

New Haven was unfortunate in that the result was even more disproportionate than expected: not one Black applicant passed the test. The city council then, in my judgment quite reasonably, feared that if they went ahead with the promotions on the basis of the test, they would face endless law suits which they could not afford. They decided to scrub the test. I don't say I would have voted for that result if I lived in New Haven, but I sure can sympathize with the councilmen who thought that way.

What is needed here is a clear cut decision that says that if a test is properly constructed with no racially connected questions, then those who use the test cannot be sued for relying on the outcome. I do not think the decision does that. I am not sure that any decision ever will do that. Those who have the problem of designing ways to hire and promote while avoiding lawsuits have my sympathy. They need more than that. They need clearcut laws. I don't think this decision gives them that.

As to why the racial disparities, and what if anything can be done about them: that's another discussion, and involves an enormous literature. The argument generally gets very ugly very quickly.

Thursday Mail Roundup 10

2009-07-02T15:20:02-06:00

More on the Obama Steamroller to pass Cap and Trade (= Ration and Tax)

2009-07-02T15:20:01-06:00

More on the Obama Steamroller to pass Cap and Trade (= Ration and Tax)

The fun never stops in Washington. Forcing votes on legislation without allowing the bills to be read or allowing meaningful debate is a form of tyranny.

Myron is with CEI. <http://www.cei.org/> God Bless him for staying on top of this. Apparently we citizens get to keep our America as-we-know-and-love-it until after the 4th of July holiday.

Also see: Waxman-Markey Flunks Math <http://click.icptrack.com/icp/
relay.php?r=11485329&msgid=194312&act
=K30X&c=174876&admin=0&destination=
http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.forbes.com%2Fdigita
lrules%2F2009%2F06%2Fwaxmanmarkey-
flunks-math.html> by Rich Karlgaard, Forbes, 30 June 2009. Long ago, Rich and I used to write under the same masthead. He's now a publisher at Forbes.

Best,

John D. Trudel

The bill flunks on all counts, and one would think that pretty obvious. At least I think it does: to be best I know, there are still very few people who have read the darned thing. But from everything I know of it, it doesn't do anything it purports to do. It's an enormous tax increase that won't change Earth temperatures by more than 1 degree in a century at best; but it will sure whack the US economy.

Kindle's Fine Print

2009-07-02T15:10:05-06:00

Kindle's Fine Print

Jerry,

Megan McCardle at the Atlantic has some disturbing news about the Kindle's user agreement fine print.

<http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/
archives/2009/06/rethinking_the_kin dle.php>

"...'Oh that's the problem,' he said 'if some of the books will download and the others won't it means that you've reached the maximum number of times you can download the book.'....And, here's the kicker folks, once you reach the cap you need to repurchase the book if you want to download it again."

This is not good if you have to wipe and reinstall.

For a long time I have been seriously thinking about buying the Kindle. Now I am not so sure. However, the fine print isn't a problem with the public domain texts of project Gutenberg.

Regards, Charles Adams

Would depend on how often you have to wipe out and what the max limit is, I think. I've never encountered the problem.

I'm watching a lecture by MIT urban planning prof Noah Raford about Collapse...

2009-07-02T15:10:04-06:00

I'm watching a lecture by MIT urban planning prof Noah Raford about Collapse Dynamics and he has a slide, number 35, here:

http://www.slideshare.net/
noahraford/collapse-dynamics-phase-
transitions-in-complex-social-systems

"...the degree of heterogeneity determines whether a phase transition may occur, and it is closely related to the magnitude of the transition. We show that any social system in which individuals have some inclination to conform with their peers, and in which the population is not very heterogeneous, may undergo a phase transition."

Here's the video series: http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/
blog/other/noah-raford-collapse-
dynamics-26-may-2009-london-
school-of-economics-1539

So here's my question: Do ethnic groups differ in their willingness to conform with their peers?

If so, are some economies more unstable because the populaces of those economies are more inclined to become thundering herds?

I'm specifically interested in Japan, China, and Euro ethnicities. When China becomes the biggest national economy will that make the world economy more or less unstable?

An interesting question. Is this a cultural matter? There are many Oriental cultures; are they different in this? Same with Europe. We know that much of Europe succumbed to Nazi and Fascist and Communist movements. But some did not.

Firemen and tests

2009-07-02T15:10:02-06:00

Firemen and Tests

The fireman situation is complicated by the idea that for some reason upper levels of management should be composed of people who have passed an objective test. But in the rest of the world, absent government stupidity, upper management positions are held by those who have shown subjective abilities to be good managers, not good test takers. An African-American majority firehouse would not necessarily choose another African-American as a supervisor unless they had confidence in that person’s ability to protect their lives and jobs. So there is always a subjective component in the selection of management, live with it. The best thing is to have interview boards which are representative of all groups, and let them make important decisions. In addition, the input of rank and file personnel is important in the evaluation of colleagues who may be selected for management positions. The people in the ranks have a better idea of the merit of a nominee than any selection board.

CBS

I would never use a pencil and paper test as a sufficient qualification for promotion; but it can be used as a means of selecting those eligible for promotions. The problem is that under the current civil rights laws and Affirmative Action attention to outcomes, it's very difficult for companies to avoid lawsuits. One means they use is insisting on "objective" qualifications such as college degrees. That way, when there is a disparity in promotions -- and there very often is no matter what means are used to select candidates -- there is the defense that objective measures were employed, what more could they do? Even though there may be no other reason to insist on college degrees.

The current system empowers gatekeepers who issued credentials; there is thus a powerful lobby to keep things more or less as they are.

I wouldn't say that someone who got the highest score on a written test about firefighting techniques was the proper person to promote to lieutenant. I would be inclined to think that someone who couldn't get a passing score on such an exam might not be the person to promote.

Spanish eco-jobs and Supreme Court activism

Dr. Pournelle,

In the 25 June and 29 June columns, George Will seems to agree with you on both the claims that the cap-and-trade will kill jobs (based on Spanish record of similar efforts) and that the Supremes' latest decision was unexciting. However, I'm wondering if some of your statements about the court decision aren't a little bit inconsistent--should we regret that the court did not create new legislature? While I agree that a new law (or change to an existing one) would be a better position, I am happy that this court chose not to engage in creating new legislation. Certainly we could both cite instances where previous courts did so to our loss and their discredit.

Your last statement serves to emphasize why we should not expect the law we would like to have from the current legislature. I see little likelihood that this (or any recent) congress would engage effectively on such a divisive subject.

In this case, I'm glad they stayed within their purview, and just ruled on the merits of the case. Sorry New Haven.

-d

Were I a New Haven city councilman, I'd be happy enough: there shouldn't be a spate of lawsuits now, and that's got to be good news. And they can finally promote someone.

Cancer Research Has Become Jobs Program

2009-07-02T15:10:03-06:00

Cancer Research Has Become Jobs Program

Jerry,

There is an interesting article in the NY Times today about how cancer research has become timid and it has become difficult to fund innovative research that might lead to breakthroughs in treatment or cures for cancer.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/28/health/research/28cancer.html?ref=science

Joel Upchurch

You are surprised that the Iron Law works? Finding truly innovative people is always difficult; and if you're in the grant giving business, you still have to shovel out the money, or go out of business. So it goes.

Women & decivilization

2009-07-02T14:50:02-06:00

Women & decivilization

I've seen you comment several times about women being the driving force behind civilization. So when I saw this, and particularly the included quote, I immediately thought of you.

http://roissy.wordpress.com/
2008/07/23/decivilizing-human-nature-unleashed/

" Men of the older generation are insufficiently aware how uncouth women have become. I came rather late to the realization that the behavior I was observing in women could not possibly be normal--that if women had behaved this way in times past, the human race would have died out.

The reader who suspects me of exaggerating is urged to spend a little time browsing women’s self-descriptions on Internet dating sites. They never mention children, but almost always manage to include the word “fun.” “I like to party and have fun! I like to drink, hang out with cool people and go shopping!” The young women invite “hot guys” to contact them. No doubt some will. But would any sensible man, “hot” or otherwise, want to start a family with such a creature?"

I must say, based on my experience with 20something and 30something women over the past decade or so, it is clear to me that Devlin (and Roissy) are correct and you are terribly mistaken. Women don't drive civilization, men do, and they don't build it for their women, they build it for their children. Marriage rates among white men are plummeting, and far too many people - particularly the older and supposedly wiser generations - are still under the impression that the problem is not enough chivalry and respect for women on the part of men, when the actual problem is that women are simply not deserving of respect right now.

The solution to this will be a reimposition of patriarchy and a return of women to the status of permanent legal children, whether any of us like it or not. The unresolved question is just how far we decivilize before these conditions are restored.

Responses

2009-07-02T14:50:01-06:00

Responses

Jerry,

Some responses to mail:

Regarding your correspondent Sean, I haven't checked the schedule but I believe the launch from VAFB was a periodically scheduled reliability test.

More significantly, regarding your correspondent Robert and his comparison of Cap and Trade to the "Space Race."

Cap and Trade is NOT comparable to the Space Race -- or rather, in a proper comparison, the United States would have paid for Project Apollo (approximately $5 Billion per year in then-year dollars) by taxing commercial air traffic at $25 billion per year and giving the surplus to Russia and China so that they could develop higher-performance jets, less 10% off the top for the bag carriers.

IF elimination of anthropogenic carbon dioxide were either necessary or desirable (I contend that the answer to both questions is NO -- though I will concede that some of the other pollutants which accompany fossil fuel combustion need to be better removed from the environment), the proper analogy to the Space Race would be a program like this:

> Objective goal that all replacement and new electrical generating capacity should be by low-carbon-emission (and by preference domestic) technologies.

> Objective goal that all transportation will be by safe low-carbon-emissions technologies by 2050.

> Electrical generation exceptions allowed on a case by case basis -- to be determined by local and state Public Service Commissions with public review and not by the federal government -- based on need, quality of grid, and local viability of alternatives based on current technology at time of installation. Nuclear is considered an essential element of the "mix."

> Government infusion of R&D funding in improved alternate generation technologies, storage, grid reliability and reduction of losses; government infusion of R&D for transportation. Research rules favor private spending over public (including national labs) and provides for strict guidelines on the ratio of direct plus overhead funding spent on non-technical activities to reduce bureaucracy.

> Government grants and tax credits to subsidize installation / use of reduced emission technologies where warranted.

Note that the research / subsidy portion of this portfolio would not cost more than what the Administration is proposing to divert from cap and trade fees to this purpose. The REST of the cap and trade money stream -- 50 - 80% of it -- goes into the pockets of the Cap - and -Trade middlemen (e.g. Gore) or to other politically favored purposes including third world grants. This portfolio could achieve -- or exceed -- the objectives of the Cap and Trade program at no more than about 20% of the cost.

Anon

Twitter & the media

2009-07-02T14:40:35-06:00

Twitter & the media

Jerry:

This was in the “Entertainment” section, but I believe it goes beyond that.

Steve

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20090701/ap_en_ot/us_web_twitter_and_media

Believe nothing until it has been officially denied.

-Bismark

I have yet to twitter or tweet, but then I didn't buy Extra editions of the newspapers, either, and I don't spend a lot of time watching daytime TV. I do have the radio on sometimes.

Federal Road Tax

2009-07-02T14:40:34-06:00

Federal Road Tax

Jerry, I read in Slashdot this morning about... "The commission pegged 2020 as the year for the federal fuel tax, currently 18.5 cents a gallon, to be phased out and replaced by a road tax. One estimate of a road tax that would cover the current federal and state fuel taxes is 1 to 2 cents per mile for cars and light trucks.'"

I thought, what's the difference? If your car gets 18.5 MPG, its a wash at 1 cent/mile. After some thinking: 1) First, it will be 2 cents/mile, at least. So the effective equivalent fuel tax is 37 cents/gallon. Nice... 2) "phased out"??? Yeah, right, won't happen, you'll pay BOTH. So now we're up to 37 + 18.5 = 55.5 cents/gallon. 3) Highly efficient vehicles will lose out. At 37 MPG, they're currently paying at the rate of only 0.5 cents/mile. So now we're up to 55.5 * 2 = 111 cents/gallon, oh heck, $1.11 - go green!!! That's per gallon. 4) Then we'll go metric, but not adjust the tax, so $1.11/gal -> $1.11 / liter * 3.78L/g = $4.20 / gal equivalent. OMG!!!

Yes, the car you drive tomorrow's on the roads of tomorrow will cost you more than 22 times as much tax per gallon of fuel to drive than today's car costs today - and it will STILL get flats from the potholes!

v/r, David L. Curry

I do not understand why we tax Diesel fuel at a much higher rate than we tax gasoline, and we actually subsidize gasohol. Diesel is more efficient than gasoline which is considerably more efficient than methanol/gasoline mix. Does the new road tax repeal the fuel taxes? None of this seems consistent.

The Return of Russell Seitz

2009-07-02T14:40:31-06:00

The Return of Russell Seitz

Dr. Pournelle,

I trust you are well and I am happy to see your productivity returning to something you consider "adequate". The rest of us would surely consider your work-load untenably large.

It was with GREAT relief that I noted the Russell Seitz byline in your mail at the end of Monday 06/29/2009. I have followed his contributions to your discussions for a number of years and frequent his journal/blog http://adamant.typepad.com/ .

Having seen nothing updated on his site since before the election and with the only known contact for him being his hometown aol page which was shutdown in November 2008

http://hometown.aol.com/__121b_9HvrPyo
LLK+xpBcWu6dVxiIINYGpN0RRv9aCeTNapfM=

I had become concerned.

I realize Mr. Seitz on occasion trundles through the jungles of South America or sails about the world but lack of ANY reference to him or news of him for many months had become worrisome.

Sorry to be so long winded but please if you would, extend to Mr Seitz my sincerest greetings and wishes for his continued good health.

Thank you Mark Smith

RE: 1990s your fallen electrical distribution tower power spike

2009-07-02T14:40:30-06:00

RE: 1990s your fallen electrical distribution tower power spike

Hi Jerry,

This reminded me of your incident with the 40 KVA electrical transmission tower that fell on the local power grid and fried everything in your house that was not protected by the UPS units you had all your computers connected to. I recall none of the computers suffered any damage.

Now that UPS systems are more affordable, maybe it's time more of us protect the $5,000.00 home theater, computers, all the other electronic devices we've installed over the past few years. Better to replace a UPS than to fight with the insurance company or be faced with the rate increase they mention.

Cheers, Ray Edmonton, Alberta Canada

Claims for lightning damage in the U. S. have risen 45 per cent since 2004 as the value of home electronics has increased.

Photograph by: Gene Blevins, Reuters, File, Canwest News Service

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Business/
BUSINESS+BROWSER/1746350/story.html

LIGHTNING SPARKS RISE IN CLAIMS FOR ELECTRONICS; RATE HIKES MAY BE NEXT

The cost of claims by U. S. homeowners whose property was damaged by lightning topped $1 billion last year for the first time since at least 2004 as the value of home electronics increases, the Insurance Information Institute said.

Insurers may have to adjust rates accordingly, the institute says.

Insured claims have risen 13 per cent since 2007 and 45 per cent since 2004, the year the institute began collecting data, as the cost of consumer electronics that are insured has risen, and with it the value of electronics affected, according to the data.

The U. S. averages 20 million to 25 million lightning strikes a year, according to John Jensenius, a lightning safety expert with the National Weather Service.<snip>

For the record, that was a Falcon UPS. I still use Falcon UPS for just about all of my systems.

Here's another space program spinoff:

2009-07-02T14:40:29-06:00

Here's another space program spinoff:

Michael Jackson Cited Astronaut Shoes in Patent

"In addition to writing catchy pop-tunes and executing gravity-defying dance moves, the late Michael Jackson apparently had an inventive streak. It has come to light that the singer holds a patent on shoes that help create 'an impressive visual effect' in one of his famous dance moves.

"The patent on a 'system for allowing a shoe wearer to lean forwardly beyond his center of gravity by virtue of wearing a specially designed pair of shoes' was granted in 1993. The effect in his music videos was created using cables, but the star wanted to recreate it for live shows. The shoes allow the wearer to connect to hitches in the stage in order to lean over. Prior art mentioned includes footwear worn by astronauts in zero gravity as well as on tools for removing rubber overshoes without having to bend over."

http://www.ip-watch.org/weblog/
2009/06/30/king-of-pops-leanings-patented

http://www.google.com/
patents/about?id=MAUgAAAAEBAJ

David K. M. Klaus

Interesting...

Article on Polar Bears and Climate change

2009-07-02T14:40:28-06:00

Article on Polar Bears and Climate change

HI,

You might find this article on a Polar Bear expert being banned from a conference because he does not belief in Climate Change

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
comment/columnists/christopherbooker/
5664069/Polar-bear-expert-
barred-by-global-warmists.html

Yours Kevin Law

Scientific objectivity in action.

Gov't efficiency LOL

2009-07-02T14:40:27-06:00

Gov't efficiency LOL

………..The explanation is really quite simple, and it’s provided here <http://www.heritage.org/Research/
HealthCare/wm2505.cfm> by Robert Book of the Heritage Foundation. The statistic cited by [liberal columnists] Alter and Krugman uses administrative costs calculated as a percentage of total health care costs (For Medicare it’s roughly 3 percent and for private insurers it’s roughly 12 percent).

But here’s the catch: because Medicare is devoted to serving a population that is elderly, and therefore in need of greater levels of medical care, it generates significantly higher expenditures than private insurance plans, thus making administrative costs smaller as a percentage of total costs. This creates the appearance that Medicare is a model of administrative efficiency. What Jon Alter sees as a “miracle” is really just a statistical sleight of hand.

Furthermore, Book notes that private insurers have a number of additional expenditures which fall into the category of “administrative costs” (like state health insurance premium taxes of 2-4%, marketing costs, etc) that Medicare does not have, further inflating the apparent differences in cost.

But, as you might expect, when you compare administrative costs on a per-person basis, Medicare is dramatically less efficient than private insurance plans. As you can see here <http://timerealclearpolitics.files.
wordpress.com/2009/06/admincosts1.gif> , between 2001-2005, Medicare’s administrative costs on a per-person basis were 24.8% higher, on average, than private insurers……………………

Cyber Command

2009-07-02T14:40:26-06:00

Cyber Command

Dr. Pournelle,

I'd like to inject a note of caution into the discussion about NSA taking over or creating any sort of cyber command.

The likelihood of the NSA ending up owning a military command is very low. The Reuters and AP stories have miserably few details because the Pentagon press releases had few details. It seems like reporters have jumped to the conclusion that, because the new command will reside at Ft. George G. Meade in MD (home of NSA HQS), it makes sense for the Cyber Command be its bailiwick. What they're not remembering is that the BRAC (Base Realignment and Closure) will relocate DISA to Ft. Meade in a couple of years. Right now, The (Three Star) Director of the Defense Information Systems Agency is also the Commander of the Joint Task Force for Global Network Operations, currently under STRATCOM purview. What I have seen of the Pentagon noise suggests that JTF-GNO will lose its task force status and become the cyber command.

While I would be surprised if the new command didn't work closely with the NSA, I would be positively shocked if the NSA had any real control over it. JTF-GNO has long needed a broader charter and I was pleased to hear that it would be a command and not another civilian agency.

Hope this finds you well. I just finished Red Heroin and Red Dragon and I'm wishing you'd write more spy novels (the nautical angle was good, too.)

v/r -Scott

Thanks.

New Haven Fireman's Case

2009-07-02T14:40:25-06:00

New Haven Fireman's Case

Jerry, while the city of New Haven may have had a legitimate fear of being sued if they had stuck with their guns, that hardly makes it illegal to discriminate against firefighters because of the color of their skin.

Having a fear of litigation makes the New Haven City Council less of a villain, but does not excuse their behavior.

Wade

As I said, I doubt that I would have voted with the majority in New Haven to scrub the test and start over; but I don't think that imposing federal control over a local decision is a great idea either. The problem is, as I said: if you apply any kind of g-loaded test, you will get racially disparate results. The law needs to be made clear on which procedures can be relied on, and which will get you sued. Congress has the constitutional authority to enforce "equal protection of the laws," but it has acted in an ambiguous manor, leaving situations like this one. As I have said, I probably would have acted differently from Sotomayor in this case, but it's pretty hard to say she was far off the line in what she did.

Census

2009-07-02T14:40:23-06:00

Census

Dr. Pournelle:

A conservative congresswoman (Michelle Bachman, R-Minn.) recently announced that she would fill out only the number of persons in her household, because she saw no authority for the census to ask the rest of the questions.

For the record, I'm going to fill out the form, correctly, having no wish to face federal prosecution, but I do think her question has merit.

Please feel free to tell me I'm completely wrong, but here's how I see it:

1. The Constitution requires a decennial census for the purpose of apportioning the House of Representatives.

2. As the Constitution also mentions "Indians not taxed" I can see some authority for asking if a respondent is a Native American.

3. The enumerated powers of the government under the Constitution do not include the right to ask other questions.

4. First Amendment rights of free speech include the right to remain silent.

Therefore, the Census has no authority under the Constitution to ask questions other than those necessary to properly apportion the House of Representatives.

I know that it has been suggested that we give the Constitution to some other country because it served us well and we're not using it any longer, but as to the matter of the census, is the above wrong, assuming that anyone pays heed to the Constitution?

The census people have never, to the best of my knowledge, answered this question directly. They state that the information gathered is of crucial importance and the census maintains strict adherence to laws about privacy.

My question is not whether the data remain private, nor whether the answers to census questions provide crucial data, but whether the Census Bureau has any right whatsoever under the Constitution to even ASK these questions.

Or am I completely off base?

jomath

Under a very strict construction you are correct; but I think it has been a very long time since we had any such interpretation. I once put it to Newt Gingrich (when he was Speaker) that (1) it required the 18th Amendment to make constitutional the Volstead Act that prohibited the possession and/or consumption of alcohol, and (2) that Amendment was repealed. Under which Article is it legal for the Federal Government (as opposed to the states) to prohibit possession and consumption of marijuana? (We could ask about other substances like opium as well. Shipping interstate may be prohibited, but what about growing pot for one's own consumption? Isn't that clearly for the states? His only answer was "It's all different now." We understood each other quite well, I think.

I do not know what questions the first census asked. It might be interesting to find out. And there was the question of slaves, who were counted, so one would have to answer questions about the number of slaves in a household (and they are mentioned in the representation clause).

I think this question was debated when the Census Bureau was first set up. It might be interesting to find those debates.

Is this the end of America as a space faring nation?

2009-07-02T14:40:32-06:00

NASA's future goes under scrutiny formatted, cleaned up, better version

Doctor Pournelle,

The writing is on the wall:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/
news/local/orl-augustine-commission-
opens-061709,0,4171578.story

: > And meanwhile, the clock is ticking for thousands of workers at > Kennedy Space Center, whose jobs will vanish when the shuttle is > retired. And depending on the committee's findings, KSC's future could > be bleak. >

> Augustine, an aerospace veteran considered independent and smart, > acknowledged last month that the group will have to determine what > sort of manned-space program the U.S. can afford.

I am calling it right here, right now: NASA as anything more than a space trukking service for the International Space Station is going to be out of the manned space flight business by the end of this calendar year, 2009.

That's right. No moon, not in 2020 or ever. No Mars. No nothing other than flying aging Ph.D. astronauts to a moribund suite of soon-to-be-obsolete Cans-In-The-Sky for dead end research and "prestige. Oh, and not to forget: the occasional billionaire.

In eleven weeks, this Presidential Commission will issue the death warrant to all that NASA bloviation about "Back to the moon".

Surprise.

What did anyone really expect from a hard-left, Democratic president who plans to revamp the entire financial industry of the largest economy in history, also reconfigure the largest health system in history AND simultaneously totally reconfigure the entire energy structure ot said largest economy ever, and do all of that in his first year?

What, did anyone really think such a person actually gave a thought to getting the human race out there among the stars?

Imagine Bill Cosby's voice, "RI-i-ight!"

He's a Big Spending, "I Feel Your Pain" (Excepting that pain he inflicts), Caring, DEMOCRATIC True Believer who is cut from the same cloth as every other whining "Why do we want to send billions into space when we have problems right here in River City!" baloney spouting demagogue of the past half century.

He's a smarter, milder spoken version of Senator William Proxmire.

The Augustine Commission is meant to do one thing, the only thing it might possibly be able to accomplish in the ELEVEN WEEKS (!) given it: Provide the fig leaf of "Too Expensive, Too Dangerous, Too Many Problems Right Here On Earth" thus to make it politically safe to expediently Kill The Dream. It's parliament voting to Kill The Queen so Henry VIII can have a new wife.

End Of Story.

There is Zero Probability, as in Nada, Bupkis, Zilch and Goose Egg, Ice Cube In The Inferno chance of the United States of America ever getting a human being beyond Low Earth Orbit again im our lifetimes, eaach and severally. That's it folks, end of game, the circus is holding its; tents and never coming back to town. It's gonna all be up to private enterprise and the Chinese, from here to inifinty.

Which is why:

I anticipate that those private sector "birds" will be the next target in the gun sights of this administration. Expect to see, within six months to a year, a bill offered up to the Boys On The Hill that, if passed, will inflict a "Death By A Thousand Regulations" upon the fledgling private sector space companies. My best guess is that it will get mixed up with green politics and "these people need to be regulated for their own good and the public's safety!" arguments. After all, rockets are big, scary, noisy and dangerous things that only government ought to be entrusted with. Besides, they create carbon dioxide, not to mention other nasty things that are unhealthy for children and other living things.

Count on it.

I hope I am wrong.

But don't count on that.

I'm not. I'm learning Chinese, so when the next man lands on the moon, I can understand what he's saying.

Petronius

I hope you're wrong too.

USAF Culture change?

2009-07-02T14:40:22-06:00

Air Force Culture Change

Pushing Culture Change AFA Daily Report John A. Tirpak Air Force Secretary Michael Donley thinks that Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz and he have succeeded in changing the culture of the Air Force in the past year. He told reporters at the Pentagon June 26 that the decisions on cutting the fighter force
<http://www.airforce-magazine.com/
DRArchive/Pages/2009/May%202009/
May%2021%202009/The2010HitList.aspx> by 3.4 wings and terminating F-22 production

<http://www.airforce-magazine.com/
DRArchive/Pages/2009/April%202009/
April%2007%202009/RaptorCutoff.aspx> are “broadly understood” in the service, “especially by the leadership.” He acknowledged that “it doesn’t mean they’re all of the same mind (see below).” But he said the unconverted are informed by their “personal and professional backgrounds,” which may reflect a prejudiced view of the service’s myriad missions. “The vision of the Air Force as flying fighter aircraft and doing air-to-air combat and dropping weapons from fighter aircraft is a very monocular and narrow-focused vision,” Donley said. Schwartz and he have been trying to steer the service away from undue influence by the bomber and fighter pilot communities, and have made a strong effort to take a “more inclusive view of the contributions of every airman to this work,” Donley said. (For more from Donley’s June 26 press roundtable, read It’s Around Here Somewhere
<http://www.airforce-magazine.com/
DRArchive/Pages/2009/June%202009/
June%2029%202009/It’sAroundHere
Somewhere.aspx> as well as Take a Deep Breath

<http://www.airforce-magazine.com/
DRArchive/Pages/2009/June%202009/
June%2029%202009/TakeADeepBreath.aspx> .)

Interesting, if true, because this seems to be leading the Air Force in the direction you have advocated for some time.

Braxton Cook

I have watched somewhat breathlessly. I gave those lectures at the Air War College some years ago; I wonder if they had any effect?

Toyota Brain Wave guidance control

2009-07-02T14:40:20-06:00

Subject: Toyota Brain Wave Driving Tests a Success

What I really want to know is when I can play World of Warcraft in a completely immersed environment….

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/06/29/toyota_brain_control_tech/

Tracy Walters, CISSP

Buzz Aldrin's NASA plan

2009-07-02T14:40:19-06:00

Buzz Aldrin’s Plan for NASA - Scrap Ares I, Fast-Track Orion and Colonize Mars

Hi Jerry,

Interesting proposal-it even appeals to the Iron Law by keeping the Shuttles' minions employed for five more years:

Cheers,

Rod Schaffter

-- "I loathe populism. But if there ever has been a moment when reasonable men's hands itch for the pitchfork, this must surely be it." --Jonah Goldberg

Ares 1x problems

Jerry,

Here's a news story on that Ares 1X I was talking to you about after lunch last month. You know, the cobbled-together initial flight demo of something sort of like the actual planned version of NASA's new "The Stick" crew launcher? No surprise, it's got problems.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/
news/local/orl-nasa-rocket-troubles
-062809,0,4229034.story

Henry

: Mars warmer recently?

It looks like Mars was warm enough to have liquid water on the surface as recently as 2 to 8 million years ago. See http://www.psi.edu/press/ , currently the most recent Planetary Science Institute release there. (The next release down is interesting too - uranium and thorium spotted on the Moon via gamma-ray spectrometry. Nice to know there's something to burn while we're still figuring out how to use all that helium-3.)

It occurs to me that Earth was considerably warmer back then too. Almost like Solar output might be a common factor dominating climate change on both planets... Interesting.

Henry

You think?

Russell Seitz on Geoengineering

2009-07-02T14:40:17-06:00

POOR RICHARD'S GEOENGINEERING ALMANAC

Dear Jerry

Lest we forget, Geoengineering began an eon or two before man set foot in the Americas, and its ongoing effects did not escape the attention of the Founders :

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/
65159/russell-seitz/the-next-top-model

-- Russell Seitz

NASA looking for ideas

2009-07-02T14:40:14-06:00

NASA Wants Your Ideas for Digitizing Wernher von Braun's Notes,

Jerry

NASA Wants Your Ideas for Digitizing Wernher von Braun's Notes:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/06/nasadata-2/

"NASA is taking the rare step of reaching out to the public for help. The space agency is looking for the best way to analyze and electronically catalog a precious collection of notes that chronicle the early history of the human space flight program.

"We're looking for creative ways to get it out to the public," said project manager Jason Crusan. "We don't always do the best with putting out large sets of data like this."<snip>

A rare admission for such a bureaucracy. Must be they think it's really important.

EPA suppresses report questioning climate change consensus

2009-07-02T14:40:12-06:00

E-mails indicate EPA suppressed report skeptical of global warming

Jerry,

It certainly appears that science is secondary to government policy regarding Global Warming.

<http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10274412-38.html>

"Less than two weeks before the agency formally submitted <http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/
2009/03/24/politics/washingtonpost/main4888350.shtml> its pro-regulation recommendation to the White House, an EPA center director quashed a 98-page report <http://cei.org/cei_files/fm/active/0/DOC062509-004.pdf> that warned against making hasty "decisions based on a scientific hypothesis that does not appear to explain most of the available data."

The EPA official, Al McGartland, said in an e-mail message (PDF) <http://cei.org/cei_files/fm/active/0/
Endangerment%20Comments%206-23-09.pdf> to a staff researcher on March 17: "The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward...and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision.""

Click on the 98-page report link in the article to get a full download of the report pdf file. <http://cei.org/cei_files/fm/active/0/DOC062509-004.pdf>

Must be nice to be a government official and not have to deal with reality.

As someone said, Global Warming has all the trappings of a new religion, where only belief is necessary.

Regards, Brian Claypool

Climate Change Deniers in the EPA Suppressed

I'm sure that this is salacious enough to generate a lot of media attention.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10274412-38.html

E-mails indicate EPA suppressed report skeptical of global warming

The Environmental Protection Agency may have suppressed an internal report that was skeptical of claims about global warming, including whether carbon dioxide must be strictly regulated by the federal government, according to a series of newly disclosed e-mail messages.

Less than two weeks before the agency formally submitted its pro-regulation recommendation to the White House, an EPA center director quashed a 98-page report that warned against making hasty "decisions based on a scientific hypothesis that does not appear to explain most of the available data."

The EPA official, Al McGartland, said in an e-mail message (PDF) to a staff researcher on March 17: "The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward...and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision."

The e-mail correspondence raises questions about political interference in what was supposed to be an independent review process inside a federal agency--and echoes criticisms of the EPA under the Bush administration, which was accused of suppressing a pro-climate change document. [...] After reviewing the scientific literature that the EPA is relying on, Carlin said, he concluded that it was at least three years out of date and did not reflect the latest research. "My personal view is that there is not currently any reason to regulate (carbon dioxide)," he said. "There may be in the future. But global temperatures are roughly where they were in the mid-20th century. They're not going up, and if anything they're going down."

Carlin's report listed a number of recent developments he said the EPA did not consider, including that global temperatures have declined for 11 years; that new research predicts Atlantic hurricanes will be unaffected; that there's "little evidence" that Greenland is shedding ice at expected levels; and that solar radiation has the largest single effect on the earth's temperature.

[...] I'm sure it was very inconvenient for the EPA to consider a study that contradicted the findings it wanted to reach," Rep. James Sensenbrenner, the senior Republican on the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, said in a statement. "But the EPA is supposed to reach its findings based on evidence, not on political goals. The repression of this important study casts doubts on the EPA's finding, and frankly, on other analysis the EPA has conducted on climate issues."

The revelations could prove embarrassing to Jackson, the EPA administrator, who said in January: "I will ensure the EPA's efforts to address the environmental crises of today are rooted in three fundamental values: science-based policies and programs, adherence to the rule of law, and overwhelming transparency." Similarly, President Barack Obama claimed that "the days of science taking a back seat to ideology are over... To undermine scientific integrity is to undermine our democracy. It is contrary to our way of life."

"All this talk from the president and (EPA administrator) Lisa Jackson about integrity, transparency, and increased EPA protection for whistleblowers--you've got a bouquet of ironies here," said Kazman, the CEI attorney.

Tim Boettcher

Waxman Markey bill

2009-07-02T14:40:11-06:00

Subject: Waxman-Markey

Jerry,

I think you may be understating how bad the Waxman-Markey bill. I think a pretty good case can be made that it will actually increase global warming. Sec. 338 requires all projects connected with this act pay the "prevailing wage" as per Davis-Bacon. The "prevailing wage" is usually much higher the local construction wages and will drive up the cost of renewable energy projects. In some cases the "prevailing wage" is twice average construction wages. Previously this had only applied to projects being built by the federal government. They have also applied Davis-Bacon to other projects such as nuclear power plant loan guarantee program from the Energy Policy Act of 2005. I suspect this will gut that program.

I also suspect that the complaince and enforcement costs alone will far exceed the $176 per household that the CBO is predicting as the total cost of the bill. We are going to spend billions of dollars on the carbon accounting this bill requires. We are going to see many small farms and businesses driven to bankruptcy just by the paperwork this bill requires. I mean this is worse than the tax code.

Also, it isn't 1000 pages that no one has read, it is 1511 pages that no one has read. The bill submitted was 1201 pages and Waxman put in a amendment on the morning of the day that the debate was scheduled that was another 310 pages. I skimmed through the amendments and made some snarky comments in my blog.

http://www.anupchurchchrestomathy.com/
2009/06/last-minutes-amendments-to-waxman.html

Joel Upchurch

“President speaks of this as a jobs bill”

I have to tell you, my business is in commercial building automation and energy efficiency systems as related to HVAC and other climate controls.

In a time of economic downturn, we are incredibly busy. I personally know of $2 mil in projects that are possible because of stimulus funding, and a considerably higher amount that is waiting to see what happens with cap and trade.

You all miss the point on this legislation. Think of it as a domestic version of the Space Race from the 60s. President Kennedy set a goal to get us on the moon before the end of the decade. When Neil Armstrong set foot on the Sea of Tranquility, there were entire industries launched, new processes, materials and technology created that did not exist before. This computer I am writing this email on is a direct descendant of the systems installed on the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo spacecraft.

Carbon trading will jump start the green economy, which is real, not just some Democratic talking point. Open your eyes to the possibilities. Think outside the box. What energy saving technology is waiting in the wings that will have the same profound impact on society as the guidance computers developed for Apollo?

Robert

The guidance computers developed for Apollo didn't lead very far; the profound revolution came from the on-board computers developed for ICBM's. The Apollo program was run by very large mainframes.

As to jump starting a green ecology, we can all hope you are right, but the economics don't seem very favorable.

The end of America as a space faring nation?

2009-07-02T15:30:04-06:00

The end of America as a space faring nation?

Minor reprieve from cap and trade.

Everyone is wondering just how GM can survive the new Fleet Average mileage...

2009-07-02T14:40:01-06:00

Everyone is wondering just how GM can survive the new Fleet Average mileage standards. Toyota is happy enough. They already sell lots of small cars. GM doesn't. GM sells cars, all right, but they sell big cars; no one goes to GM for a small efficient car. So just how will GM sell enough small cars to meet the CAFE standard? I suppose they just won't. The CAFE standard provides for a big fine for companies that don't meet it; perhaps GM will just pay it, and get a government bailout to cover the fine? Because they sure aren't going to manage to sell enough small cars to meet the standard.

Meanwhile unemployment rises. Companies are part-timing valuable employees to avoid laying them off, and you can be sure they'll bring them back full time rather than hire new people when the economy gets better. Unemployment hasn't hit bottom yet.

I have to admit I am a bit baffled: I am not at all sure how we build a new economy. I see no signs that the smart people in charge know how to build a new economy. I am convinced that low cost energy plus freedom will do the job -- but we are not likely to have either in the coming years. The good news is that we can recover, and we know how to do it. Eventually we'll understand that.

Now it's back to work on Mamelukes, Lucifer's Anvil, and the next column. Thanks to all of you who have renewed your subscriptions.

Al Franken is now a Senator...

2009-07-02T13:40:03-06:00

Al Franken is now a Senator, thanks to endless recounts. The implications of this are pretty severe. The nation that champions democracy around the world changes the rules after the election.

Meanwhile, several readers have called my attention to actions against Inspectors General. See http://townhall.com/columnists/
MichelleMalkin/2009/07/01/
who_railroaded_the_amtrak_inspector_general .

The campaign continues, this time on Health Care, and more stumping for the energy tax bill. The campaign for change is implacable.

Changing the rules is part of the campaign for change. It continues.

Sotomayor -

2009-07-02T14:40:21-06:00

Sotomayor -

Hi Jerry,

The issue with Sotomayor isn't that she was overturned in a split decision, it's that the entire court, in a footnote, indicated that the means by which she reached the decision was deficient. Rather than evaluating the case on the merits, she issued a summary judgement based on her background and opinion. The fact that even the liberal wing took issue with her methods, indicates that she's not an appropriate choice for the Court.

Cheers,

Doug

I saw that, but I think is was only one of the dissenters. Perhaps I mistook. In any event I believe the case ought to have been sent back for actual trial on the issues, but given that this wasn't to be done, I'm not sure that a long opinion by an appellate court on this would have been useful: it was clearly headed for the Supreme Court no matter what.

The problem here is that we don't need the court acting as a legislature. There's already too much legislation, and it conflicts. No one wants to straight out say that the law is to be color blind, because we can predict the results of doing that: under representation of Blacks and over representation of Orientals in state supported colleges and universities. What we have, then, is dissembling, which enriches lawyers and creates just a lot of work for courts.

sabre rattling

2009-06-30T18:00:03-06:00

sabre rattling

Dr. Pournelle,

Is it sabre rattling when you actually hit what you're aiming at... 3 times... or is it just bragging?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090629/
ap_on_re_us/us_missile_test

Is this more "testing" along the lines of our satellite shootdown? We'll never know of course, but it's hard to ignore the timing of the shot. Regardless of why the missile was shot, the comparison is funny... 3 warheads lofted on a missile type that can be put on nearly instantaneous alert hitting a target thousands of miles away, compared to the last guy who lofted missiles in our direction needing weeks of careful preparation to loft one missile that has tended to break apart before the end of boost phase.

Yes our missiles used to "always blow up" too, but that was a while ago.

On another topic, Rush pointed out that the recent SCOTUS decision about the firefighters specifically excluded the core constitutional issue behind racial bias in personnel management. Both the majority and dissenting opinions were apparently pretty clear that this was a limited case because existing law was sufficient to decide this one without digging any deeper. The opinions pointed out that the constitutional issue will need settling eventually, but this apparently wasn't the right case.

Crystal ball time... With Obama's first nominee already making it known that her status as a minority makes her more qualified than any white guy, I wonder what the "right case" will look like. My guess is that it'll involve an illegal immigrant who eventually received citizenship, and the constitutional test will revolve around the question of if ANY measure of qualifications (other than where one fits within affirmative action racial quotas of course) can be fair to someone who doesn't even speak the language in use by the employer. Equal protection under the law (14th amendment?) will be twisted to mean something like if the law states that only 50% of promotions can be white men, then that is "equality" and therefore constitutional.

But that's just what my warped and cynical crystal ball tells me. Maybe it'll work out ok... I'm not holding my breath though, and the empty shelves at every sporting goods store in the nation tell me that Americans are stockpiling ammo. Not a good sign in a republic during "peacetime".

Sean

NASA reacquires original Moon landing footage,

2009-06-30T18:00:02-06:00

NASA reacquires original Moon landing footage,

Jerry

It appears that NASA's moon-landing tapes were in Perth, Oz:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/06/29/moon_landing_tapes/print.html

Well, it seems as if the lads from The Dish came through again.

Richard C. Hoagland says that NASA deliberately "lost" the tapes, and is now busily editing out pictures of alien structures and other artifacts on the Moon. On the other hand 'The Sunday Express notes that "if the visual data can be retrieved, NASA is set to reveal them to the world as a key plank of celebrations to mark the 40th anniversary of the landings next month".' according to the Register story. By the time of the actual Apollo mission I was involved in local politics in Los Angeles and had little to do with the mission; I was at a political meeting fund raising for Barry Goldwater Jr. when the Eagle landed. (We won, and he was on the space committee.) TV in those days wasn't very high resolution, but it's astonishing that NASA just plain lost the high definition tapes.

Of course they have closed the Goddard facility that might actually have been able to read the tapes, but perhaps they can manage something new. Surely they know the format.

Stimulus Packages, Cap and Trade and Broken Windows

2009-06-30T18:00:01-06:00

Stimulus Packages, Cap and Trade and Broken Windows

Dear Dr Pournelle,

Anyone, including President Obama, arguing that the recent stimulus package (or any other recent legislation) is a “jobs bill” has forgotten their Frederic Bastiat. Surely these arguments are merely examples of the Broken Window fallacy? See http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html. I think Bastiat has been referred to from these pages before.

Best wishes,

Simon Woodworth.

Bastiat is worth reading. I forget that few hear of him in college or college prep education any longer.

Sunday Mail Roundup 1

2009-06-30T16:30:23-06:00

Saturday Mail Roundup 1

2009-06-30T16:30:22-06:00

Friday Mail Roundup 1

2009-06-30T16:30:21-06:00

Circular Error Probable

2009-07-02T14:40:33-06:00

Circular Error Probable

Dr. Pournelle,

Your Tuesday correspondent, Sean, seems to think it significant that the Air Force was able to launch a Minuteman and hit targets in the Pacific this week. He shouldn't. The U.S. has been doing this for many, many years, sometimes 5-6 times a year in the past, as part of exercising the stockpile to characterize aging of the components. One should do sample testing with any stockpiled ammunition, no matter how complex the system. In the case of ICBMs, it also gives a lot of people practice in the art of providing a deterrent. The CEP accuracy standard for Minuteman III was pretty much established by the 70's and has been improved slightly but steadily since. It is usually easy to miss the news releases of these events.

I used to help assemble test systems at Vandenberg, working for the organizations ancestor of one of the current AF test squadrons.

I found it mildly interesting that we are still firing MIRVs in test -- a configuration supposedly no longer found in the wild. But there is probably still a plethora of test RV components around even if the alert force is forbidden to use multiples by treaty.

-d

Ant mega colony takes over world

2009-07-02T14:40:24-06:00

Ant mega colony takes over world

http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/
earth_news/newsid_8127000/8127519.stm

Steven

Post hoc ergo propter hoc: Thousands of experiments have conclusively proven that beating drums and clashing cymbals brings back the sun after a total eclipse

Mama mia! Now if that colony ever becomes conscious we have a heck of a story... Seriously, this is a manor ecological change. Man Made.

Monday Mail Roundup 5

2009-07-02T14:40:18-06:00

Once again, Tom Clancy was prescient

2009-07-02T14:40:16-06:00

Once again, Tom Clancy was prescient

I wish I was still working there…. J

NSA will manage the Cyber-Force

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/06/24/us_military_cyber_force_announced/

Matrix like VR world to test Cyber-Force tools

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/01/05/cyber_range_deals/

Tracy Walters, CISSP

California's Fiscal Crisis: The Legacy of Proposition 13

2009-07-02T14:40:15-06:00

California's Fiscal Crisis: The Legacy of Proposition 13

Doctor Pournelle,

From "Time", better known hereabouts as "The News Magazine Of Alternate Realities", the stunning revelationt hat California's fiscal crisis is the fault of thoe Bad Old Conservatives:

"And at the root of California's misery lies Proposition 13, the antitax measure that ignited the Reagan Revolution and the conservative era. In Washington, the Reagan-Bush era is over. But in California, the conservative legacy lives on."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599190493800

You just cannot make this sort of thing up. It's like a drunk driver blaming the accident on the tree tht got in his way!

Petronius

The truth is that even with Prop 13, California has average to high average property taxes relative to other states; while other taxes are near the top. California is not under-taxed.

Rutan's X-Prize flight glitch

2009-07-02T14:40:13-06:00

Rutan's X-Prize flight glitch

Hi!

When mentioning this in Thursday's Mail, you wrote: "The reason that Rutan's X-prize flight unexpectedly went into a spin has to do with engineering details of the kind of engines selected for the prize flight. None of that figured in our early science fiction about the glories of a space faring society."

Strictly tongue-in-cheek, allow me to disagree. In RAH's 'Blowups Happen', there is a fortuitous accident that leads to quick energy release needed to use water as a rocket fuel (that just so happens to wreck the testing rig). The line(s ), compliments of webscriptions, are:

"But," the psychiatrist pointed out, "you don't know which isotope blew up." "Nor care," Harper supplemented. "Maybe it was both, taken together. But we will know--this business is cracked now; we'll soon have it open." He gazed happily around at the wreckage.

I've always loved that last line. <manic grin>

Your main point, that small-scale feasibility testing is wise, is uncontestable (unless one is Too Big To Fail...)

Best Regards,

Doug Hayden

Another time & date coincidence

2009-06-30T16:30:09-06:00

Another time & date coincidence

Jerry:

For those whose dating conventions are mm/dd/yy, at 5 minutes & 6 seconds after 4 a.m. on July 8th, we’ll have 04:05:06 07/08/09.

Aren’t digital clocks wonderful? <G>

Steven

Post hoc ergo propter hoc: Thousands of experiments have conclusively proven that beating drums and clashing cymbals brings back the sun after a total eclipse.

Harry Erwin's Letter from England: neutrino interaction?

2009-06-30T16:30:10-06:00

Harry Erwin's Letter from England

The 27 June New Scientist has an interesting article on solar modulation of beta decay <http://tinyurl.com/o269mn>. An electron neutrino (from the Sun) plus a neutron can produce a proton and an electron. There's some evidence that this produces seasonal (and longer-term) variation in decay rate measurements. I'm wondering how this might be used in a science fiction story. Perhaps radioactivity might depend on your local star.

After twelve years, Labour may finally be getting it about the target culture. <http://tinyurl.com/nu5e6o> <http://tinyurl.com/ogdtgk> <http://tinyurl.com/pzaxna > But I doubt it.

Gordon Brown's proposal to oversee parliamentary expenses has implications for MP's freedom of speech. <http://tinyurl.com/o5gw45> <http://tinyurl.com/m4arcb >

Clear shuts down. Who gets the personal data it has collected? <http://tinyurl.com/m2tmsv > <http://tinyurl.com/q2akgc>

Harry Erwin, PhD

See <http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=974>

Interesting. I'll have to give that some thought. Are there energy implications? Does this correlate with sunspots? Now that would really be fascinating.

Sunday View Roundup 1

2009-06-30T16:30:07-06:00

Friday View Roundup 1

2009-06-30T16:30:06-06:00

Washington Post publisher cancels the exclusive event for lobbyists. A...

2009-07-02T13:40:04-06:00

Washington Post publisher cancels the exclusive event for lobbyists. A salon at the publishers house, for $250,000, with exclusive non-confrontational access to a ton of Obama officials. Interesting for several reasons.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/02/
AR2009070201563.html?hpid=topnews

Washington Post Publisher Katharine Weymouth today canceled plans for a series of policy dinners at her home after learning that marketing fliers offered lobbyists access to Obama administration officials, members of Congress and Post journalists in exchange for payments as high as $250,000.

"Absolutely, I'm disappointed," Weymouth, the chief executive of Washington Post Media, said in an interview. "This should never have happened. The fliers got out and weren't vetted. They didn't represent at all what we were attempting to do. We're not going to do any dinners that would impugn the integrity of the newsroom." <snip>

Probably the most interesting aspect is, how could they guarantee the presence of high ranking Obama administration officials at a private fund raising event? A second question would be, how can Katharine Graham's daughter not be aware that the newsroom would be horrified at the whole idea? Does the publisher never talk to the editors? But it does show just how isolated some elites are from the realities of the world.

I continue to be astonished that the cap and trade bill is seriously considered....

2009-07-02T15:30:02-06:00

I continue to be astonished that the cap and trade bill is seriously considered. This is probably my limitation, but I simply cannot see why anyone would be for it -- except, of course, as a huge tax increase, so that those who benefit from large government cash flows would be for it. I hadn't realized that this group was so powerful as to command a majority of the House of Representatives, but apparently it is so. Yes, I've seen the arguments that cap and trade will start a new green revolution and create a thriving new green economy; but I've seen precious little evidence for this, and a great deal of both scientific and economic arguments with evidence against it. Even in the arguments for the cap and trade bill there is little expectation that it will have much effect on climate. The most optimistic advocates don't give it much chance. CO2 has done about all it's going to do to raise temperatures, and in any even China and India aren't going to cut back on their use of coal and oil.

And unemployment continues to rise.

Late start this morning, but I think I have recovered from a weekend bug.

2009-07-02T15:30:01-06:00

Late start this morning, but I think I have recovered from a weekend bug.

For platinum subscription:

2009-06-30T16:30:02-06:00

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

Patron Subscription:

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.