Chaos Manor Musings

1615: Dr. Wang called. He has good news. The MRI shows that my tumor is about...

2008-05-08T17:50:02-06:00

1615: Dr. Wang called. He has good news. The MRI shows that my tumor is about half its previous size. It will probably shrink some more. There's no way to tell if what's left is a healthy tumor or scar tissue or just what. We'll do another MRI in about 6 weeks by which time we'll be able to tell more.

Since the monster is cut way back, I infer that most of my symptoms are the results of radiation damage and on introspection that's likely. The original symptoms are pretty well gone. I do have trouble fusing the two images in binoculars, or at least THESE binoculars that we keep here: I see two cormorants out on the buoy (and two buoys) when there's really only the one. Not much I can do about that except try with my own binoculars when I get home. I see all right without the binoculars and just this morning I was noticing that I don't have the problems reading I used to have.

All in all I'm apparently in pretty good shape, and things are looking up.

I see the oncologist, Dr. Rodriguez, next week. Now to relax...

1550: We have successfully arrived in San Diego for the weekend...

2008-05-08T17:50:01-06:00

1550: We have successfully arrived in San Diego for the weekend, leaving Joe in charge at Chaos Manor. Joe and Sable get along famously; I sometimes think she likes it better when he's there than when we are, but she's always glad to see us so I suppose not. Anyway, it was an uneventful drive down, and I am looking forward to some solid recuperation. I may or may not get a mailbag out for the Review. I probably will, being of the temperament I am, but I have been told to get some rest and I intend to try...

Thursday Mail Roundup 8

2008-05-08T11:40:12-06:00

Debt and Education

2008-05-08T11:40:11-06:00

Debt and Education

Trout Rader did an economic analysis of free education's role in long- term maximisation of domestic productivity. Remember <http://www.jerrypournelle.com/science/firstdark.html#Erwin > ?

In Economics of Feudalism, Rader also showed that the inheritance of debts from generation to generation (or, equivalently, the inability of families to build up capital) would lead over time to a highly in-egalitarian society, with almost all families in debt slavery, and with a very small domestic product primarily serving the consumption of the (small) elite class. To avoid concentration of wealth, the social system as a whole has to invest in children so they can start out free of debt and with valued skills.

-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland.

I would have thought that building a large state school system with resident tuition at pretty low levels was a heavy investment. In my time the resident tuition was small enough to be negligible: the big problem was staying alive while getting through school. Sure, tuition at Harvard and Yale was ruinous without scholarships and assistance, but it wasn't that important to go to one of those schools. I never even considered it.

Now, though, you end with debt even in state scho0ls -- which use the high tuition to ape the "intellectual" schools. The California State College system used to be dedicated to education and the benefit of undergraduates. Now --

The Sad State of College Education and the Labor Market

2008-05-08T11:40:10-06:00

The Sad State of College Education and the Labor Market

Mr. Pournelle,

While I agree that not all middle-class citizens need a university education, if they want to rise above the middle-class, it is almost imperative for an American to get such an education. This is what is frustrating me. For individuals to get into certain industries that could be taught just as simply with on the job training, they must acquire at least a bachelor's degree.

What ever happened to apprenticing?

One thing that really gets my goat are "prerequisite classes". Until recently, I was attending college for a Computer Science degree on GI Bill funding. However, for the past four semesters, I was stuck with completing prerequisite material before I could even get to the classes that were relevant to my major. I know such things are considered "necessary evils", but do I really need to learn what a keyboard is when I have been using one since I was 5?

College curriculums are in serious need of modernization, especially those that deal with computers and technology.

Blake

Jerry-

2008-05-08T11:40:09-06:00

Jerry-

Students at Northwestern are required to demonstrate writing proficiency during their two "freshman" seminars, typically during the freshman year, though science and math majors with heavy required course loads sometimes take the second of these seminars in their second year.

Infrequently, remedial education is necessary, such as for those students who have a first language other than English or for those with a uneven distribution of academic talent. These students enter the "Writing Program."

Your implicit assumption that Northwestern has lax academic standards is mistaken. The academic program at Northwestern is quite rigorous. That was one reason why I elected to matriculate at Northwestern.

-Steven HPME Northwestern Class of 1982

Thanks. But I do note they couldn't wait to hire the French Narrative Theory teacher...

China: an opinion

2008-05-08T11:40:08-06:00

China: an opinion

Hi Jerry,

"Finally: we need to pay attention to what happens with Hong Kong and Shanghai as an indicator of possible futures for Taiwan. It is not likely that the US will be able to dominate the Straits of Formosa once China seriously brings technology and economic resources to bear."

It is my belief that China will mostly try to avoid that game. I expect they will put enough "presence" to keep the US on their toes while their real intention is to become a high ground power which would allow them to invalidate at a stroke, the enormous advantage the US has in military power. Their pride in their current space program is like what the Americans pride used to be in theirs in the 60's

While they may lack the individual initiative and "can do" attitude that Americans used to have, they are a very very industrious and determined people.

It is a race that the Americans can easily win (for many reasons), but to win, they have to be willing to enter the race.

- Paul

Hi Jerry,

2008-05-08T11:40:07-06:00

Hi Jerry,

Don't know if you've seen this.

"This is the story of educational romanticism in our schools - its rise, its etiology, and, we have reason to hope, its approaching demise"...
http://www.newcriterion.com/articles.cfm/
The-age-of-educational-romanticism-3835

But it has a lot to say about your arguments on the current educational mess.

Robert Hickey

gibbon's 'decline and fall' on marching morons

2008-05-08T11:40:06-06:00

gibbon's 'decline and fall' on marching morons

Dr J-

Gibbon's 'tendency of luxury in the female to destroy fertility' may be upstream of the marching morons worry. Clever spinsters will always be a minority. Upper middle matrons who hate risky hard labor, not.

Chesterton thought less breeding of Britons came from women seeing too few men die in battle to feel inspired to die in childbirth- this was a little before WWI.

Cheap, safe abortion we got; test-tube babies not. When the tech level rises a notch, maybe we can outfox Gibbon and GKC both.

All the best,

Bruce Purcell

Student debt

2008-05-08T11:40:05-06:00

Student debt

Dr. Pournelle,

Richard York asks:

"Does it strike anyone that the idea of saddling our children with tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt before they have even started their working lives is simply crazy? Are there any other successful industrialized nations which do this?"

The short answer is "yes". The UK does this exactly. Newly-qualified (medical) doctors, to pick just one example, typically have debts in the �50-60K range (note, that's not dollars). And not infrequently, thanks to our wonderful centrally-planned government healthcare system, there will be no jobs for quite a few of them.

Of course, one could quibble as to whether the UK these days counts as either successful or industrialised, so perhaps the rhetorical question stands.

Best regards,

Andrew Duffin

Good paper on global cooling

2008-05-08T11:40:04-06:00

Good paper on global cooling

Jerry,

The link below is to a good paper on climate change. It is long but a good summary of why “global warming” is bunk.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf

Do we live in a special time in which the laws of physics and nature are suspended? No, we do not. Can we expect relationships between the Sun’s activity and climate, that we can see in data going back several hundred years, to continue for at least another 20 years? With absolute certainty.

In this presentation, I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling.

Mike Plaster

Your comments about Ms. Venkatesh...

2008-05-08T11:40:03-06:00

Your comments about Ms. Venkatesh, and who should and shouldn't be going to universities

A few minor observations:

(1) A bachelor's degree these days is largely nothing more than a white-collar union card. Most companies don't care WHAT you have your degree in - the question is, do you have one.

(2) 4-year schools have, for the last 20+ years, become not much more than advanced vocational schools. The quality of education that you received for your BS is now reserved for those pursuing a masters or higher.

(3) 30 years ago, an Associates degree was still something indicating that one had done a fair amount of work. Today an AA suffers from the same defects a peso does - can't buy anything with it, and it's too stiff to use for toilet paper.

(4) If one were to wish to ascribe causes to this, one should look no further than the "Me" generation, who apparently decided that Everyone Should Have a University Degree, And The World Is Unfair If They Don't.

(5) One should also note the credentialization of America. When I started in the tech industry, knowhow was important, but willingness and ability to learn, and drive, mattered more. That's why I was able to pay my way through college writing books on computer software. Today, if you don't have fifteen different certifications, don't bother applying. Do those with the certificates know more? Actually, oftentimes they know _less_. But certifications are easier for HR departments to check off, and they can be scanned for by automated systems, rather than requiring someone to actually READ a resume. It's buzzword bingo as a career development path.

Charlie Prael

I agree about the effect of credentialization, but not the cause. The cause is affirmative action including Americans with Disabilities Act. Personnel officers don't want lawsuits, so they look for "objective" criteria for hiring employees. Accumulated credentials including degrees are an easy choice.

Personnel officers really would like to hire people who will do well for the company, but that has become a very risky practice indeed. Fare fewer lawsuits if you stick to credentials.

As to AA degrees, my mother taught first grade in rural Florida in the 1920's; she was always a bit ashamed of only having an AA rather than a four year degree. On the other hand she was an excellent teacher.

I also note that when I went to work at Boeing in the mid-1950's, about half the engineers did not have engineering degrees from universities; many of them started as draftsmen, and learned to be engineers through an apprenticeship program that led to a professional engineering certification by examination. By the time I left Boeing in 1964 that was no longer true, and nearly all the new engineers were e-school graduates. There are virtually no non-degree engineers in aerospace today.

And more on education:

2008-05-08T11:40:02-06:00

And more on education:

I do sympathize with the universal angst over the way the education system operates. This is hardly a surprise for a broadly distributed and barely managed system that is working toward a common outcome while dealing with a wide spectrum of input. they can keep the job.

I have one comment. A major unvoiced role of the educational system is to provide behavior training for the developing mind. This is totally independent of content which has actually ranged all over the map throughout the world.

I think it is a viable outcome if a disciplined socially adept intellect is produced. Real success must be measured by how much the student was prepared to challenge himself and his appetite for further knowledge.

I think education needs to be vastly more flexible regarding content while more focused on developing learning behavior. We may find that we are doing a decent job

arclein

I agree with your major premise. I don't agree that we are doing that. French Narrative Theory is not the product of a disciplined mind.

Debt and Education

2008-05-07T16:00:01-06:00

Debt and Education

Dr. Pournelle,

Does it strike anyone that the idea of saddling our children with tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt before they have even started their working lives is simply crazy? Are there any other successful industrialized nations which do this?

It seems to me that the most successful period of real (not virtual) economic growth came in the wake of the largest publicly financed education effort in history – the GI Bill.

I’m sure that some, if not most, of my fellow Chaos Manor followers hate the “liberal” idea, but expenditures on infrastructure really are investments. And, there could be few more important aspects of our infrastructure than higher education. Just as a well-armed population can be an insurance against tyranny, so can a well-educated one.

In other words, higher education should be free to all who qualify for it. That is, it should be paid for out of the pockets of taxpayers. Did I really say that? Yup.

Richard York

It's certainly crazy.

As a product of the Korean GI Bill I can hardly denounce the concept. The problems really came when the intellectuals convinced people that "investment" in trade schools and such like wasn't as desirable as "investment" in higher education meaning universities. At the same time, the State Colleges became "State universities" and in the "upgrade" put more into graduate schools to the detriment of undergraduate education. We then poured more money into the "university" system which is quite unsuitable for education of more than about 25% of the population (I'd put that at a lower figure, but we can stay with that).

Now a lot of students who would do well at "college" level education can't get that; they have to go to "universities" and learn French Narrative Theory in Freshman Comp.

If investment is needed in "education" -- and it is -- it's in training in technical skills. Most of that could be done in high school. Of course the high school teachers don't want to work that hard and will stand in union solidarity with the college professors who want the large number of students willing to borrow money to go listen to foreign graduate students teach introductory math courses in incomprehensible dialects, but it's "world class" isn't it? Doesn't everyone deserve a "world class university education"?

So we continue to neglect the great majority of our citizens to benefit a handful of intellectuals. And they never catch wise.

They're changing their rhetoric from 'global warming' to 'climate change'.

2008-05-07T14:20:04-06:00

They're changing their rhetoric from 'global warming' to 'climate change'.

Mark my words, the bureaucrats won't give up the power they've discovered they can exert based upon unfounded theories of anthropogenic 'global warming' . . . once direct experience makes it impossible for the Big Science Politburo to continue pushing the fiction of 'global warming', they'll already have changed their tune and will be harping about 'climate change', irrespective of the direction or type (or cause) of said change, so that they can push for ever-more-draconian social controls and ever-larger taxes and 'fees' from us proles.

--- Roland Dobbins

Global warming "hiatus"

This is actually a brilliant move by global warming scientists. By predicting "cooling" for many years, but eventual drastic warming by and by, they have just swept all the evidence issues off the table. No matter what the climate does for the next ten years, what the temperatures are, what the ice and glaciers do, it can't disprove their "modified" theory.

They did something similar with the ozone hole, which continues to maintain its size despite a constant decrease in the manmade catalysts in the atmosphere. Scientists now say that the ozone hole will only heal long after they're all dead. End of controversy.

Tom Brosz

Obama's improbable history

2008-05-07T14:20:03-06:00

Subject: Obama's improbable history

http://www.powerlineblog.com/
archives2/2008/05/020462.php

"Tom Maguire <http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/
2008/05/dont-know-much.html> caught this passage:

I trust the American people to understand that it is not weakness, but wisdom to talk not just to our friends, but to our enemies, like Roosevelt did, and Kennedy did, and Truman did.

Maguire comments:

Obama's supporters are too young to know any of this, but Roosevelt led the United States in the war against Hitler; the Allied policy was unconditional surrender, so there was very little for Roosevelt and Hitler to discuss, and in fact, the two did not meet at all (but they did exchange correspondence before the war).

So my guess is that Obama is thinking of the Yalta Conference with Churchill and Stalin as talking to "our enemies," although of course we were still allied with the Soviet Union against Germany and Japan at that point. Beyond that, is the Yalta Conference something Obama and his advisers view as a success worthy of emulation? Puzzling.

And the United States has been talking with Iran right along in any event. It's not for lack of communication that Iran has been conducting its war on the United States."

All I can figure is that the people who keep saying if we only talk to the bad guys, we can get results, have never been on a playground. Talking to bullies got me nothing but heartache, but when I decided they might beat me, but they weren't going to push me around, they stopped bugging me. It's almost like economics, raise the price of something and it gets less attractive. Lower the price...

Oddly, FDR, JFK and LBJ were all at war with enemies, and were able to speak from a position of at least some strength. Obama wants to seek a position of weakness in order to ... I'm not sure what, but he is certain it'll help. The thing is, our enemies don't need to talk to us, they are sending the message already. Obama would be the one needing some result, some reason to say the talk was successful, and thus the one needing to make concessions to get something. How we expect to get good results out of that escapes me. Yet we cite Roosevelt, of Unconditional Surrender, as a source of validity for this. I do not grok this plan.

Graves

1250:

2008-05-07T14:20:01-06:00

1250:

A fairly good night after spending most of the day in bed. Got up and did some work before our walk. The walk went well.

I expect to finish the May column part one and the International Edition before dinner. Thanks again to those who subscribed recently. Now to get to work.

Global warming "hiatus"

2008-05-07T14:20:02-06:00

Global warming "hiatus"

Tom Brosz

Freshman Composition at Northwestern

2008-05-06T18:10:01-06:00

Freshman Composition at Northwestern

Jerry-

-Steven

HPME Northwestern Class of 1982

I replied

I hope you enjoy French Narrative Theory

Too little data to tell. I do enjoy French toast…

This silly lady will apparently be a research assistant at Northwestern. In this capacity, she will have little or no influence on the Northwestern curriculum or the education of undergraduate students. My understanding is that she was not offered a teaching assistant position because of her foolish behavior at Dartmouth.

You will note that last week, Northwestern's School of Theology withdrew the offer of an honorary degree to Senator Obama's retired pastor. At least the error was recognized.

I was in the Honors Program in Medical Education (2 years college + 4 years medical school), so outside of my areas of core competence, I am largely an autodidact.

I did take several "off-topic" courses during my two years as a college student at Northwestern: the Honors mathematics sequence, Compiler Design, Turing Machines & Computability, Transformational Grammar, Soviet Politics, Ancient History. Each of these courses was taught with enthusiasm and rigor. Not much fluff and nonsense at Northwestern, at least in my experience…

Steven

Chilling out.

2008-05-06T18:00:01-06:00

Chilling out.

<http://www.davidwarrenonline.com/index.php?id=863>

-- Roland Dobbins

Extract: Vast tracts of the Pacific, Indian, and Southern oceans have not yet been seeded with networks of instrumental buoys, and most of these read only the surface. For all practical purposes, the influence on climate of seas covering well over half the world’s surface are “maria incognita.”

Conversely, information about human contributions to the world’s climate is only too plentiful, thanks to the global craze for gathering economic statistics. We have every reason to believe it is quite small, yet the mere availability of mountains of data about it confers a systemic bias on any computer modeling, as on any other kind of statistical analysis. You go with the numbers you have, and draw very big conclusions from very narrow assumptions.

This is a routine flaw in all modern scientific thinking, which scientists themselves are loath to consider, just as we all are loath to consider facts of life that must tend to make us very, very humble. To be charitable to the scientists who take the pay of the IPCC -- though only for the briefest moment -- myopia is a universal human condition. We all imagine that what we know is intrinsically more significant than what we don’t yet know, or even cannot know.

Debt and Education

2008-05-06T16:20:04-06:00

Debt and Education

Jerry- Regarding the discussion of 'bonehead english' and other such freshman courses offered in US Universities: I graduated from a LAUSD High School in the 1980's. Some of the teachers were worthless, others were very good.

On the strength of many AP tests taken, I was able to enter a college of my choice with enough college-level credit to bypass the usual freshman classes and rank as a sophomore. Many of my friends did the same. Importantly, most of us had earned enough during our high school summers to supplement our college jobs and escape from college with degrees and little to no debt. It was hard, no doubt, but I did it. I didn't drive a new car or go skiing on weekends, but I did receive a BS in math with a minor in computer science. In other words, 'the system' does (or did) offer avenues around the usual wasteful process.

Those that are truly interested in an education, rather than a certificate to begin a worker-bee career in some anonymous cubicle, will find a way to make it happen. Pity that the system is making it ever harder to do so.

Thanks, get well soon

- -Jim

It's possible, but the floods of money to the universities allow them to hire people to teach French Narrative Theory in Freshman Comp all the same.

What's needed are some real alternatives to the credential system.

Memristor -- alert

2008-05-06T16:20:02-06:00

new discovery - the "Memristor"

http://www.informationweek.com/
news/hardware/processors/show
Article.jhtml?articleID=207403582

For me the following statement was interesting:

"Electronic theorists have been using the wrong pair of variables all these years -- voltage and charge. The missing part of electronic theory was that the fundamental pair of variables is flux and charge," said Chua. "The situation is analogous to what is called "Aristotle's Law of Motion, which was wrong, because he said that force must be proportional to velocity. That misled people for 2000 years until Newton came along and pointed out that Aristotle was using the wrong variables. Newton said that force is proportional to acceleration -- the change in velocity. This is exactly the situation with electronic circuit theory today. All electronic text books have been teaching using the wrong variables -- voltage and charge--explaining away inaccuracies as anomalies. What they should have been teaching is the relationship between changes in voltage, or flux, and charge."

THIS i call scientific progress - it affirms my belief, that science and engineering have NOT come to an end.

Maybe i am too pathetic now, but what you need is a society where you learn something but you are also free to think outside this "framework" without beeing punished for it. (The climate debate is definitely not carried by this spirit).

Andreas Reichl (Germany)

Mit freundlichen Gr��en/ With best regards

Dr. Andreas Reichl Software Development ISRA SURFACE VISION GMBH

1452: Not my best day. Or maybe it is. We'll have to see. A good night's sleep...

2008-05-06T16:20:01-06:00

1452: Not my best day. Or maybe it is. We'll have to see. A good night's sleep, after getting to bed about 0100, but I woke up sleepy. Breakfast, then back to bed. Roberta bullied me into getting up -- thank you -- and we took a walk. Then I went back to bed. In other words, I've been taking the advice about recuperation.

The problem is that I have deadlines, and it's time. So I am up, and I'll be working on the column.

A tale of two thermometers

2008-05-06T15:50:02-06:00

Subject: A tale of two thermometers

<http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/
02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/>

Michael Zawistowski

Looking at the NASA website, we can see that the person in charge of the temperature data is the eminent Dr. James Hansen - Al Gore's science advisor and the world's leading long-term advocate of global warming..

Imagine my astonishment. But the article is well worth study.

James Watson, six months later, still apologizing

2008-05-06T00:50:01-06:00

James Watson, six months later, still apologizing

May 1, 2008

You'd think James Watson would be pretty good at apologizing by now. Last October, the then 79-year-old Nobel Prize winner was quoted in the Sunday Times of London Magazine as saying that he was "inherently gloomy about the prospect of Africa" given that "all our social policies are based on the fact that their intelligence is the same as ours--whereas all the testing says not really."

Of course Watson is a well known idiot of no intellectual capability or value. It wasn't always that way, but last October it became obvious. And science doesn't permit certain subjects to be discussed as if they were amenable to scientific method.

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.

Re: Declining Demographics: A Counter Trend

2008-05-06T15:50:05-06:00

Re: Declining Demographics: A Counter Trend

Jerry,

There is one counter trend I know about in the declining demographics of educated women. Within the homeschool demographics, there are a *lot* of larger families, and these kids are generally getting a great education and going on to do well in public universities as well. My wife and I homeschool, and this has been our general observation. (We have five kids ourselves.) This is probably a small percentage of the demographics overall. But many of these kids appear poised to move out into life and into roles of positive leadership and achievement in America.

Mike Cheek

Houston

Fertility and College: Follow the Money

2008-05-05T16:40:04-06:00

Fertility and College: Follow the Money

I don't know if this counts as "challenging the validity of the data" in Mr. Chu's letter, but perhaps we should consider that cost of higher education may play just as much, if not more, of a role in fertility than intelligence or educational level by itself.

Mr. Chu writes:

<<Assuming a replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, women with bachelor's degrees are at 82%, and graduate and professional women are around 74%, compared to 118% for women without a HS degree. We may quibble about the exact figures, but there is clearly a positive correlation between IQ and educational achievement, and a negative correlation between educational achievement and fertility.>>

Higher education has both economic and opportunity costs. It is not uncommon for a recent college graduate from a middlin'-to-decent private school to have $ 40--$ 50,000 in student loan debt of various flavors. Professional (medical or law) school debt is even worse; in my line of work I see a great many recently-graduated lawyers, and most of them have $ 80--100,000 in student loan debt. This of necessity impacts the family-formation and child-rearing decisions of those holding the debt. In addition, students may forego starting businesses or investing in existing businesses to go to college; any return on the money invested would then be put off for years, if not permanently.

Also consider the tax code: student-loan interest is often fully deductible, while the costs of raising children are not. Add to that the incentives modern American culture provides towards a high level of material consumption (television advertising, for example), and one could legitimately marvel that the cited replacement rates are as high as they are. Finally, consider that the college-educated tend to marry each other, which reinforces the effect of these incentives. It takes a long time and a great deal of money to attain a high level of (credentials) education, which in turn reduces the time available to a woman (and her partner) to have children.

There are also two other developments to be considered in all this. Entry into many professional-level fields was once possible by way of an apprenticeship-style system ("reading law" in a law office, for example) which no longer exists. Getting the required piece of paper costs far more in time and money under an "academic" approach like this than being someone's understudy for five years. Sources of funding have also changed. With the vast and perhaps unwarranted expansion of "higher education" came a shift from grants and working one's way through college to straight loans. More students means more loans, more debt and more burdens militating against reproduction/family formation.

The level of debt burden among today's college graduates is at its highest level in history. There are more short-term pleasures available (and aggressively marketed) than ever before. Meanwhile, "globalization" and modern information technology provide more wage-reducing competition in the labor market than ever before. I'm not surprised that they are having fewer kids; our society is not set up to make it an attractive option. In short, "when all else fails, follow the money."

Cordially,

Mark Schaeber

P.S. In addition, let us also remember that simply having an advanced degree does not automatically mean a high level of intelligence. Not all advanced degrees are in medicine or the sciences (where a high level of intelligence may be legitimately presumed); a person may have a master's or Ph.D in education and still be an idiot. (This may explain school administrators and other members of the NEA.) Robert Heinlein once wrote that "catering to your mentors is necessary in any subject not governed by mathematics." I will wager large money at long odds that this maxim still holds true, particularly in education, sociology and similar fields.

I had nearly forgotten Mr. Heinlein's maxim. It is almost certainly true. Robert was an astute observer of society.

IQ and Families

Dear Dr Pournelle,

Steve Chu has made a compelling argument that intelligence and family size are linked, but I wonder?

I can’t help but think that his argument is playing fast and loose with the statistics. First off, his sample set is rather narrow. His argument appears to argue that smart women have fewer children as if there is a biological link, where I think that highly educated _and modern_ women are choosing to have families of a smaller size. Intelligent women are not incapable of having a large family because they’re less fertile, but that they’ve decided that their job is to work and help bring home the bacon. Whereas the high school dropout (which doesn’t necessarily mean stupid!) considers their job to stay home and have kids.

What is the typical family size of Ashkenazi Jews? I have no data available, but I am presuming larger than normal.

If educated people are choosing to have smaller families, to the point where they are no longer replacing themselves, I’ll argue that they’re not being very smart!

I hope you are starting to feel better!

Bill Grigg

Or they're up to their eyeballs in debt.

On requiring every child to be above average.

2008-05-05T16:50:01-06:00

On requiring every child to be above average.

http://www.newcriterion.com/articles.cfm/
The-age-of-educational-romanticism-3835

Saturday Mail Roundup 1

2008-05-05T16:20:16-06:00

Friday Mail Roundup 1

2008-05-05T16:20:15-06:00

Just when you think you’ve seen every type of bridge possible. [Pics]...

2008-05-06T16:20:03-06:00

Just when you think you’ve seen every type of bridge possible. [Pics]

http://deputy-dog.com/2008/05/05/gephyrophobiacs-look-away-now/

Michael Zawistowski

That is one strange bridge!

Alert: World Sea Ice At 25 year high! ...

2008-05-05T16:40:03-06:00

Alert: World Sea Ice At 25 year high! - Global Warming Movement 'Unraveling' - Akin to Nostradamus? - Warming blamed for Shark Attacks? - Newsweek Slapped Down (Again) - Round up

May 5, 2008

Report: World Sea Ice reaches 'unprecedented' 25 year high in April! (By Climate data analyst Stephen McIntyre of ClimateAudit.org, one of the individuals responsible for debunking the infamous "Hockey Stick" temperature graph)

Excerpt: On a global basis, world sea ice in April 2008 reached levels that were “unprecedented” for the month of April in over 25 years. Levels are the third highest (for April) since the commencement of records in 1979, exceeded only by levels in 1979 and 1982. This continues a pattern established earlier in 2008, as global sea ice in March 2008 was also the third highest March on record, while January 2008 sea ice was the second highest January on record. It was also the second highest single month in the past 20 years (second only to Sept 1996).[…] Four of the past 5 months are “all-time” records for Southern Hemisphere sea ice anomalies, “unprecedented” since the data set began in 1979 as shown below: (See weblink for graphs)

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3066
<http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3066>

MUST READ Sampling of Key Quotes from scientists reacting to last week’s peer-reviewed study finding ‘Global Warming Will Stop’- Warming Takes a Break for Nearly 20 Years? (LINK <http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?
FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord
_id=a17defa8-802a-23ad-4912-8ab7138a7c3f&Issue_id=> )

“It’s All Unraveling” – Oh dear! The inevitable is happening. The ‘global warming’ trope is unraveling on a daily basis - scientifically, economically, and politically. The wheels are coming off the hysterical bandwagon, and it is not going to be a salutary sight watching the politicians and the media junkies jumping cart and trying to throw mud in everyone’s eyes.” […] How on Earth have folk been conned into believing such hubris? It is so like The Prophecies by Nostradamus” – May 2, 2008 - UK Professor Emeritus of Biogeography Philip Stott of the University of London. (LINK <http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/
Global_Warming_Politics/
A_Hot_Topic_Blog/Entries/2008/5/2_
It%E2%80%99s_All_Unravelling.html> )

“This whole climate change issue is rapidly disintegrating. From now onwards climate alarmists will be on the retreat. […] All indications are that we are now on the threshold of global cooling associated with the second and less active solar cycle.” – May 2, 2008 - By Professor Dr. Will J.R. Alexander, Emeritus of the Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering at the University of Pretoria in South Africa and a former member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters. (LINK <http://www.climatescience.org.nz/
images/PDFs/alexwjr.2-3.5.08.pdf> )

“Their entire global warming scare was based on around two decades of warming in the late 20th century so if that is followed by 20 years of stasis and cooling, which one of those two episodes represents the trend? How can we be sure that there is ANY trend?” - Australian John Ray, Ph.D., who publishes the website Greenie Watch said on May 2

IQ plus wannabe's

2008-05-05T16:20:11-06:00

IQ plus wannabe's

Jerry,

Re: the IQ discussion about smaller family size following IQ. Take a look at this paper (and many others) that draw the opposite conclusion.

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002812.html

I'm surprised that so many of your "High IQ" correspondents look at a data set and draw their own, self serving, conclusions.

Ephraim F. Moya
IQ = 100

There was considerable mail over the weekend ...

2008-05-05T16:20:08-06:00

There was considerable mail over the weekend; if you didn't see it, some was important.

Chinese Nationalism

2008-05-05T16:20:10-06:00

Zakaria: 'I felt as if I were in Germany in 1910, speaking to a young German professional, who would have been equally modern and yet also a staunch nationalist.'

Despite his incomplete understanding of history, his failure to grasp that economic power/informational power *is* the new leverage of control, with broader reach than mere bullets and bombs, his pollyannaish view that 'billions are escaping from poverty' (it's more like their ruling elites are adding zeroes to their bank accounts, in most cases) and his failure to completely integrate and analyze his astute observations, this is worth reading, IMHO:

<http://www.newsweek.com/id/135380/output/print>

I'll note that in my observation of Chinese college students - necessarily the scions of the Chinese elite - rallying to observe the Olympic torch procession and harass pro-Tibet supporters, their nationalism reminded me more of Germany in, say, 1936 or thereabouts, than in 1910.

- Roland Dobbins

I will agree that it's worth reading for information, but have a bowl of salt handy. Chinese nationalism must never be underestimated.

Possony -- who represented Taiwan in the World Court in the Hague, and like me was very pro Republic of China -- once told me that the Taiwan controversy would end this way: We and Taiwan would be on one side of the table with the Chinese Mainlanders yelling at us. We would look away; and when we looked back, the Taiwanese and Mainlanders would be on the other side of the table yelling as us. And no one in the West would understand what had happened; not us, not our experts, no one; but many Americans of Chinese ancestry would not be surprised.

China may be more imperial than first assessed...

Asian Wall Street Journal May 5, 2008 Pg. 13

China's Naval Secrets

By Richard D. Fisher Jr.

Experts attempting to understand the strategic aims behind China's aggressive military expansion have generally focused on Taiwan. But a new naval base points at Beijing's significant and growing interest in projecting power into waters far from the Taiwan Strait. China, in fact, is equipping itself to assert its longstanding and expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea, and this plan could raise tensions well beyond the region....

Serving Officer

I understand that Navy planning people must pay attention to worst case, and that threat is determined by capability not by intentions (which can change; indeed having a capability can generate an intention). I was in that game for much of my life.

China has historically been concerned with two ambitions: to incorporate into the Empire (or People's Republic) all those parts of the historical Middle Kingdom that have been lost. Tibet is one of those. Taiwan less so, actually -- it wasn't under mainlander control much. Korea is a special case, historically a dependent subject kingdom, a protectorate, but never quite incorporated into the Empire. Parenthetically: I'd rather North Korea were under the control of China than what it is today.

The second concern of Chine has been overseas Chinese. This makes Vancouver, British Columbia, something akin to Hong Kong East.

China is a world power, whether we like that or not. They have a legitimate interest in the South China Seas. The US as a maritime power has an interest in open seas, open doors, freedom of the seas. Whether this is in conflict with China's desire to control adjacent waters is a matter for considerable attention.

Finally: we need to pay attention to what happens with Hong Kong and Shanghai as an indicator of possible futures for Taiwan. It is not likely that the US will be able to dominate the Straits of Formosa once China seriously brings technology and economic resources to bear.

Harry Erwin's Letter From England

2008-05-05T16:20:09-06:00

Harry Erwin's Letter from England

The local elections were held, and the voters told Labour and Gordon Brown to "push off". Or as Cromwell supposedly said in a similar

situation:

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately ...

Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article3864138.ece

> <http://tinyurl.com/6jk45q>

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/uk_politics/2008/local_elections_2008/default.stm

> <http://tinyurl.com/58wuhk> <http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/interactive/2008/apr/14/localelection

> <http://tinyurl.com/3w6tvb> <http://blogs.independent.co.uk/independent/2008/05/today-in-poli-2.html

> <http://tinyurl.com/4n2nn5>

The Labour years have been a political education:

--I've seen how liberalism can go off the tracks.

--A career in politics or law does not usually prepare someone to run a large bureaucratic organisation.

--A government will most assuredly run out of ideas after a while.

That said, governments desperately need good ideas--they're rare and precious--and the narrower the talent base a government draws on, the faster it will run out of good ideas.

--Your personal beliefs often have nothing to do with whether the people in power regard you as an enemy. You might be just a good target.

--Checks and balances are a very good thing.

--The hardest lies to recognise are the assumptions you don't think about.

--People and organisations learn to game the system if you don't move the goal posts from time to time. The English class system has been very good at preventing class mobility and social innovation.

--Watch for unexpected side-effects. The English poor pay a very large percentage of their reported income in taxes, and this has produced a large grey economy and a high "volume" crime rate.

--Government policy can impoverish people by keeping them from actively improving their lot.

--A policy wonk without a curb can destroy in a week what took centuries to build.

By the way, Diane tells me that staple food prices in the UK are up about 60% over last year. I wonder if that also contributed to the Labour debacle.

Sunday news stories:

Businesses considering leaving the UK over taxes.

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/04/cntax104.xml

> <http://tinyurl.com/5m4oeb>

Government reaction to voter fury.

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/may/04/tax.economy>

A Tory London, now.

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/05/04/do0402.xml

> <http://tinyurl.com/5vqsuo>

Davos story.

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/04/globaleconomy.economy

> <http://tinyurl.com/5baa57>

Climate change.

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/05/04/do0405.xml

> <http://tinyurl.com/6m9tfv>

"Truth is the intersection of independent lies." (Richard Levins, 1966)

Harry Erwin, PhD

JK Rowling

2008-05-05T16:20:05-06:00

Subject: JK Rowling

Jerry

Harry Potter and the battle of the lexicon -- chicagotribune.com
<http://www.chicagotribune.com/
business/chi-publisher-potter_bd
may04,0,4636217.story?track=rss>

Sourly amusing tidbit -- the publisher who is seeking to publish the lexicon that Harry Potter author JK Rowling believes reuses too much of her original material and provides inadequate research is a biographer of Michael Moore.

Jim

I am sure Ms. Rowling wishes this would all go away. As the judge said, this seems ripe for settlement. Alas, there are serious principles at stake here.

Minor Correction For The Record

2008-05-05T16:20:04-06:00

Minor Correction For The Record

Correspondent Eric wrote on 05/03/08:

"...traditionally Muslim ethnic groups; Arabic, Armenian, Berber, Turk, etc. etc."

Armenians have been primarily Christian since the official adoption of the faith by the nation in AD 301. Note that that was before Constantine The Great, making Armenia the first nation to convert to Christianity.

(I'm sure you already knew this fact, I wanted to point out the error in case you think it needs to be corrected.)

Thanks!

Petronius

All correct, and I should have caught that. Thanks.

American Axle

2008-05-05T16:20:03-06:00

Subject: American Axle

Dr. Pournelle,

I read the linked article about the travails (or the refusal to travail, perhaps) of the workers at American Axle.

Interestingly, the "picket" quoted was described as being "outside the gleaming headquarters the company built next to its refurbished Detroit plant four years ago".

One is inevitably reminded of C. Northcote Parkinson: "During a period of exciting discovery or progress there is no time to plan the perfect headquarters. The time for that comes later, when all the important work has been done. Perfection, we know, is finality; and finality is death."

Sounds like American Axle was on the way out anyway!

Andrew Duffin

PS Best wishes for your continuing recovery - we need you to go on doing stupid things so that we don't have to!

I'm trying.

The truth about Tuskegee

2008-05-05T16:20:02-06:00

Tall Tales About Tuskegee.

<http://article.nationalreview.com/?
q=Njg4MzdkYTQ0YjZjYWUwOWQz
OTg0OWVmYWVjMDY5ZTM= >

--- Roland Dobbins

Sunday View Roundup 1

2008-05-05T15:50:20-06:00

Friday View Roundup 1

2008-05-05T15:50:19-06:00

Got the column out including the International edition to Japan and Istanbul....

2008-05-08T17:00:01-06:00

Got the column out including the International edition to Japan and Istanbul. There have been a score of subscriptions, doubtless because of a link from platinum subscriber Glenn Reynold's Instapundit http://www.instapundit.com/ yesterday.

I'm now grinding on some new essays.

Symptoms: a good night's sleep. Still sleepy and tired, but I am up and working. We'll see how that works. Heaven knows there's enough to do here, and of course the office is littered with the detritus that accumulates when I do a column. Usual lower back problems: that is they were usual for a year before I started the steroids. Then I got used to not having them. They're back. Not much I can do about that, alas.

Before steroids I never had indigestion. I was warned that the steroids would cause heartburn and worse, and indeed they did. I thought they'd go away when I quit the steroids. Actually, while it's not as bad as before, I still get it. This is disconcerting because that has never been a problem for me: I have always been able to eat anything that wasn't eating me, and never have a stomach pang. No longer. Now it hardly matters what I eat, it's Tums and Titralac as after dinner mints...

Now it's time to get to work cleaning this place up.

A very important story:

2008-05-06T15:50:01-06:00

A very important story:

The battle for secularism in Turkey.

<http://www.jihadwatch.org/
dhimmiwatch/archives/020884.php>

- Roland Dobbins

14:30 It is now time to get started on this week's column which must also include...

2008-05-06T00:40:02-06:00

14:30 It is now time to get started on this week's column which must also include the International Edition for Japan, Istanbul, Sao Paulo, and points east and west...

Is there any program other than rar itself that will open .rar files?

Hi Jerry,

The free windows program "universal extractor" will open rar and a lot of others. http://www.filehippo.com/download_universal_extractor/.

Cheers,

Peter Cupit

Thanks!!

Cinco de Mayo

2008-05-05T15:50:14-06:00

Cinco de Mayo

1330: When I got my blood drawn last Thursday I discovered that there was a warrant out for more of my blood, and since I have an upcoming appointment with Dr. Rodriquez, the oncologist, and he'll want to see that as well as the internist who ordered it, I went out this morning at 0800 to get my blood drawn.

Choosing a Monday wasn't smart. It took a long time. Also they wanted a urine sample, and I had already done that task before driving out there, so while waiting between registration when I found out and getting to the technicians -- about 20 minutes, which was about how long I stood in the registration line -- I told you choosing a Monday wasn't smart -- I kept drinking water, and then after that I went to the cafeteria for coffee, breakfast, and a pint of tea. So about 10 AM I was able to give the urine sample and come home. By then I was nearly exhausted, but I sat down at the breakfast table and read the papers. There was a lot to read, much of it relevant to the day's work, which is the column including the International Edition.

Debt, Education, and the Middle Class

2008-05-06T00:40:01-06:00

Debt and Education

There were also two articles relevant to education that need comments, both in the Wall Street Journal although there was no indication that the WSJ editors recognized that they had much to do with each other.

The first was an editorial on student loans.
http://www.nasfaa.org/publications/
2008/aweditorial050508.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB120994278813866099.html

You and I now own a lot of them.

Recently we told you about Congress's feverish effort to clean up the mess it made in the student loan market. Convinced that private lenders were making too much profit on federally insured loans, Democrats enacted changes last fall that rendered most new student loans unprofitable. As numerous firms abandoned the market amid the credit crunch and just before the peak of college financing season, the anxious pols realized their blunder and are now seeking a bailout of the same lenders they had just finished punishing.

This follows the disastrous experiment of having the government be the direct lender back in Clinton's time as President. The problem then was that the bureaucracy wasn't able to process the loans in time for the students taking out the loans to pay their tuition and expenses.

You will note that whoever owns the loans, they are loans, and those who graduate having taken out those loans enter life under a burden of debt that many will never escape.

I also note that while I went through undergraduate education by way of the GI Bill (3 years benefits for each 2 years in the Korean War army) and Board Jobs (1 hour waiting on tables for 1 meal off the menu at Reich's Cafe in Iowa City; no longer possible under the minimum wage act), and my wife worked her way through college as an office worker with New York Life in Seattle, nowadays it is pretty difficult to work your way through college -- big lifetime devouring loans are often required, even if you manage to go to a state university under resident tuition. (The reason I went from Iowa to the University of Washington was that my parents were legal residents of Alaska when I got out of the Army, and in those days residents of Alaska were legal residents of the State of Washington for tuition purposes; and resident tuition was important to me given that the GI Bill didn't pay a lot and my work hours were limited by my class and work schedules. Fortunately I managed to get assistantships at both Iowa and UW, and those helped a lot.)

I also lived a rather Spartan life. In Iowa I had a single room in a private home; it had a gas ring but no refrigerator, so the only way to preserve food other than in deep winter when a window box was good enough was to keep a pot of soup simmering at all times. That soup became legendary among my friends: what went into it was anything including stuff I could collect at supermarkets when they were cleaning out the produce at closing time, stale (officially day old) bread, and any meat or protein I could collect. It all went into the pot, and my main meal at night was a big bowl of that soup/stew and a chunk of "day old" rye bread so hard that it had to be dipped in soup to be edible; and of course my daily meal at Reich's Cafe.

Spartan the life was, but it worked until I impressed my professors enough to get an undergraduate assistantship doing lab technical work at Iowa. At UW I was "animal room manager" which consisted largely of conveying huge garbage cans full of rat dung and dead rats down three flights of marble stairs (in Smith Hall; the lab was in the attic) a couple of times a week, and generally cleaning up the animal cages. It wasn't fun, but it paid me; I didn't have to go into debt.

Nowadays the notion of working your way through college seems bizarre.

Now even resident tuition in a state university plus the cost of living near campus comes to more than most undergraduates can make. It's true that bright students who can prove they're high up on the right side of the Bell Curve can manage "scholarships" and "grants" that serve to cut the costs, and some do escape huge debt loads on graduation: but then those well out to the right side of the Bell Curve usually manage one way or another.

It's the IQ 80 - 120 who end up debtors for the rest of their lives.

Of course many of them ought not be in college to begin with. If our high schools and junior (community) colleges were anything like what they ought to be, anyone to the left of IQ 115 wouldn't bother with college. What they learn in a 4 year college isn't going to be all that much help; what they need to learn can be taught for a lot less money than our Universities charge. And those out to the right of the Bell Curve find themselves in classes taught by immigrant grad students who speak incomprehensible dialects said to be English; the Universities have to have jobs for these people (whose governments often pay full tuition) and the size of classes leaves the university little choice.

That brings us to the second article in today's WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB120995103004666569.html?
mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Often it seems as though American higher education exists only to provide gag material for the outside world. The latest spectacle is an Ivy League professor threatening to sue her students because, she claims, their "anti-intellectualism" violated her civil rights.

Priya Venkatesan taught English at Dartmouth College. She maintains that some of her students were so unreceptive of "French narrative theory" that it amounted to a hostile working environment. She is also readying lawsuits against her superiors, who she says papered over the harassment, as well as a confessional expos�, which she promises will "name names."

The trauma was so intense that in March Ms. Venkatesan quit Dartmouth and decamped for Northwestern. She declined to comment for this piece, pointing instead to the multiple interviews she conducted with the campus press.

Two things worth noting here: she left Dartmouth for Northwestern; one expensive university for another; and secondly, she taught Freshman Comp, otherwise known as Bonehead English. One wonders why Dartmouth or Northwestern accept students who need Bonehead English. The existence of Freshman Comp classes is an indictment of the whole college prep education system.

Note that Bill Gates and many experts claim that the goal of our high schools should be to guarantee every child in the nation a "world class university prep education". Note that if that were accomplished the demand for university education, already far too high (and the major factor in the spiraling costs that end up with half the middle class saddled with lifetime debts), would grow by more leaps and bounds, forcing the costs still higher.

Note also that the higher incomes the universities get let them afford Priya Venkatesan who teaches "French Narrative Theory" and Deconstruction in Bonehead English class.

Now I have to confess: When I went to the University of Iowa, they had tests for incoming freshmen, and my results got me relieved from both Freshman Comp and Freshman Speech; I was able to start the "core courses" Iowa was famous for in those days, and took Greeks and the Bible (a literature course involving a couple of dozen Greek plays by Aeschylus, Euripides, Sophocles, and that gang; the Laurence of Arabia translation of the Odyssey; and a very literary translation of the Bible; as well as Plato's Republic). I found that a lot more useful than Bonehead English would have been, but I suppose it disqualifies me for much commentary on the value of Freshman Comp and Freshman Speech. Still, from what I observed, those who did take Freshman Comp did not usually shine in the more advanced seminars in upper division work. Note that "did not usually" does not mean never and no one. I am sure that some -- perhaps many -- got bad secondary training and Freshman Comp helped them get where they ought to be.

But one thing I am certain of, "French Narrative Theory" in Freshman Comp doesn't accomplish that result. No one ever had problems in advanced courses because of a lack of French Narrative Theory or Deconstruction in high school -- and Bonehead English is supposed to remedy high school education defects, not teach college level Deconstruction theory. Note also that my Southern Catholic high school was able to teach me enough that I had no trouble getting exempt from Bonehead English.

The points here are two: first, pretending that everyone is competent to go to university drives the cost of university education up to the point that many will have to go heavily into debt in order to afford a university education; and secondly, the major universities are so awash in money now that they can afford -- and WANT to afford -- Priya Venkatesan to teach French Narrative Theory in Freshman Composition.

Many go to University who ought to have learned their career skills in high school -- or at least in junior college. It is not necessary for all the citizens of a republic to have gone to university and learned French Narrative Theory. One need not know know anything at all about Foucault or Deconstruction to be a good citizen, vote in elections, pay taxes; and indeed I put it to you that being without debt is probably preferable to knowing French Narrative Theory.

I think you will have no trouble drawing more inferences from the above pair of articles. And in case you were wondering, this is not my long delayed essay on education, although it has been inspired by that essay's conclusions. I'll do that essay when I get caught up on computer related stuff. This diatribe just flowed out; it's first draft, surely full of flaws, but I hope worth your time.

HDTV comes to Chaos Manor

2008-05-05T15:50:09-06:00

1700:

I had a day but all is well. I had to wait for the delivery of a Samsung 42" HDTV, which came at 1130. Once again, a consulting firm was interested in what I would do with an Apple TV box and HDTV; I didn't have to pay for this. My wife is happy about it -- she was telling me it was time to get a larger TV than the 32" normal definition TV which was the best we have. Of course he major purpose is the NBA playoffs. She's a big Lakers fan.

To the extent that I watch much professional sports that's my favorite too, although I sometimes like football; I played guard in 8th grade, which was odd because being 2 years younger than my classmates I should have been smaller. I wasn't all that bad, but when I got to High School the 2 year age difference was decisive: I got to go out for boxing. I wasn't all that bad at it either.

Anyway we now have HDTV downstairs and I am about to connect up the Apple TV Box and look into doing HD podcasts which I can edit with the iMac or Mac Book Pro and apparently there is a way to "publish" them using the Apple TV box. There are also rentals, and downloads, and lots of stuff. We are getting a 1 GB Ethernet line into the room where the TV is, but until then it will work with WiFi.

Never had any experience with HDTV before so this should be interesting, and the project is to see how well it all integrates with the rest of Apple and the MAC OS. I must say it's an interesting experiment.

I also had to get a blood sample drawn since tomorrow I get my MRI (in late afternoon) and they are going to give me some kind of dye marker, so they need to be sure my kidneys can handle the dyes. I had to do this before and it was no problem so I don't suppose there will be one now.

So tomorrow they get a picture and I have an appointment with the oncologist next week to see how it all looks. Wish me luck.

So it was an interesting day, and considering that I spent yesterday in bed, an active day wasn't something I expected, but I feel great, and all's well. Tomorrow I have a lunch appointment, then the MRI. That will be a busy day.

I see am rambling. Thanks again to all those who subscribed or renewed. Took the sting right out of not getting much done last week. I'm not used to long periods of not producing much...

Ethanol and Alcohol Debate begins

2008-05-05T15:50:08-06:00

I have opened the debate on ethanol and biofuels over in mail. I will now try to get some sleep.

When you are done with that -- it's long -- you may ponder another survey into the suicide of the west:

Astarte and Amaterasu - The diverging destinies of Europe and Japan.

I don't agree with all of this, and the mispunctuation in a couple of places grates, but it's still worth reading, IMHO:

<http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/3203>

- Roland Dobbins

It's worth your time.

1158: Did my morning walk. Got the column ready for posting tonight. Niven is coming shortly. This looks like a good day, and I already have done what amounts to a day's work.

Spending the day in bed yesterday may have been the right thing to do.

There's a lot of new mail. Now to get ready for a walk with Niven (a second walk for the day).

1545: Went to lunch with Niven and came back and crashed. There is a finite limit to the energy levels I have for the day, I guess.

The Bell Curve and the future

2008-05-05T15:50:04-06:00

The Bell Curve and the future.

See mail for one of the issues we face today.

Revealed Religion

2008-05-04T21:30:06-06:00

Revealed Religion

Dear Jerry,

This reader's tagline -

"Communism, like any other revealed religion, is largely made up of prophecies. H. L. Mencken"

- sure fits "Global Warming Science". GW even features its own Apocalypse & Judgement, due solely to Sinful Man's refusal to repent and bow down unquestioningly before the High Priests of Global Warming.

Best Wishes,

Mark

NO Gripping Hand! --

2008-05-04T21:30:05-06:00

NO Gripping Hand! --

Jerry,

On the one hand:

Ballmer: You want XP, we'll keep XP

http://www.news.com/8301-10784
_3-9927721-7.html?tag=nefd.pulse

But on the other hand:

Update: No change in Windows XP plan despite Ballmer comment

http://www.infoworld.com/article/
08/04/24/No-change-in-Windows-
XP-plan-despite-Ballmer-comment-
Microsoft-says_1.html

NO "but on the Gripping Hand" option located.

I guess that the *power* to *enforce* "your OS dies when we SAY it dies!" is too powerful a drug for them to resist.

Ron

Re: Regulatory Politics

2008-05-04T21:30:04-06:00

Re: Regulatory Politics

You wrote: " The key phrase is "present regulatory environment." Which is the same as saying prohibitory environment. Which is the same as saying that one party is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trial Lawyers."

Actually, it's entirely due to the Trial Lawyers, and hasn't really got anything to do with political parties. The reason that regulators think this way is that our country has spent thirty years saying, in every possible way, that We Do Not Want Risk. We want our risk to be ABSOLUTELY ZERO. No risk of any kind, whatsoever, in anything that we choose to do. I want to be able to buy a gun, load it, point it at my head and pull the trigger, and suffer no ill result. It's Someone's Job to make certain that this happens. And if it doesn't work out that way--if I'm exposed to risk--then obviously it's Someone's Fault, and that someone Must Be Made To Pay.

The government's response is to downcheck anything with risk in it. If they don't approve the activity, then they aren't responsible for negative outcomes--even if the negative outcome is a direct result of their non-approval.

Remember that thing about Misoprostol I sent you a few months ago? A small company did a research study on the use of misoprostol (aka Cytotec) as a labor-induction drug. The company found that misoprostol was exactly as effective as, and no more hazardous than, the standard-use drug for the purpose (Cervidil). The FDA refused to approve the use of misoprostol for labor induction, because it wasn't MORE safe than the existing drug.

Except that misoprostol is already being used by doctors to induce labor, thousands of times every day, all across the United States. They know it's not approved for this use, and yet they do it anyway. But as long as the FDA hasn't approved it, then any negative results from using misoprostol aren't the FDA's fault. As soon as the FDA approves the drug, they are now responsible for any failed inductions.

And there's no way to eliminate these bureaucrats. Nobody ever votes for them; indeed, the closest many of them come to an election is that their boss's boss's boss's boss's boss is appointed by the President. The people who make the actual regulatory decisions have been there longer than any Presidential administration; many of them have been a part of the bureaucracy for longer than FDR was President! Most of them are wholly apolitical. But they're more interested in maintaining the bureaucracy than they are in doing things that might go wrong.

Mike