Category Archives: View

Chaos Manor View, Thursday, October 29, 2015

Spent Wednesday (yesterday) in conference with Niven and Barnes, and lunch afterwards; we got a lot done, but the clear conclusion is that it’s my turn, and I owe them about a week of work. The Cthulhu War, (working title, probably not the final) is turning into a major and excellent project. It’s the third volume in the Avalon series. Both its predecessors, The Legacy of Heorot, and Beowulf’s Children were both best-sellers, and they hold up well. These are stories of founding the first interstellar colony in a world of slower than light travel; populating the universe at slower than light speed in a race with unknown competitors: we haven’t found them yet, but we have found life, and some it may be approaching intelligence; how long did it take us to evolve to interstellar travelling beings, and how many others are likely?

There is a novella, written after Beowulf’s Children but actually taking place between the two books; the necessity for keeping what happened in The Secret of Blackship Island from being known to the protagonists in Beowulf’s Children was not hard, and a bit of fun, but it turns out to have some serious consequences. Among other things, how do you keep secrets when there’s an AI that knows everything?

Remember, most of the passengers – the Colonists – went there in cold sleep or as frozen embryos. Children could not give informed consent about being frozen and sent off Earth. Thus there’s a real generation gap, because for the first twenty years there were no teen agers; only adults and children. And there’s still a generation gap between the Earthborn who rule, and the Starborn who do an increasingly large share of the work, even if robots do the menial labor… That was important in the first books; it’s even more so now. And Earth is not done sending colony expeditions…

Anyway, I’ve got several important scenes to do, and that’s going to take some of my time. The book progresses well, but this part is sort of my bailiwick. With luck you’ll never know what I did and what the other members of the team have done; we’re all quite active in writing this book.

Tonight is LASFS, and I’d give you the link to my page except that Time Warner has its usual 4: PM shutdown of the Internet. It will go away eventually—ah, it’s back. Anyway I’m going to the LASFS meeting, so this will have to be short.

Steve Barnes calling Jack Cohen for a Skype Conference. Ain’t technology grand?

The debate settled nothing, and wasn’t politically important; it was probably good practice for the candidates, but no one got knocked out, and maybe the Republican establishment is learning how much they are hated by the electorate, and seen as a lesser evil to Hillary – at best. And the media hates them, and perhaps they are learning that. We’ll lose at least one more candidate before Iowa as someone runs out of money. I rather hope it isn’t Carly Fiorina because I’m finding increasingly more reasons to like her, and she’s slowly moving up. Carson sounds better all the time, and he obviously has stamina and self control. Jed Bush is doing his duty and running but his heart isn’t in it. Trump is Trump; unpredictable and not controlled by any group. What you see is what you get.

The Republican Country Club Establishment has learned a few thing and forgotten some since they ran the only man Clinton could beat in the ’96 election; but they haven’t learned much, and have forgotten even less. They know that electing any Democrat will be a disaster to the country, so they think that the nation has no choice; people like me will have to vote for who they put up. The Primaries become very important; but you knew that. This is a very critical election. I wish Carly were more charismatic.

It’s still Pledge Week at KUSC and thus at Chaos Manor; if you’re sick and tired of me asking you for money you have only to hang on a bit longer – of course if no one subscribes or renews this place won’t be here at all and I’ll never ask you for money again. Actually, we’ve has several new subscribers this week, and the renewal rate has been pretty good. Not spectacular, but this is a Depression even if officially they don’t call it one.

They no longer count people who want work, don’t have it, and have given up looking for a job as unemployed, and since more and more do give up as this non-recovery wends on and the Debt grows and grows, the unemployment rate shrinks even as the number of people not working grows. The employment rate among young black males is low and getting lower; while the number of young black males murdered by young black males is growing. If Black Lives Matter, and they do, it is odd that no one in the Democratic Party seems to notice this. They wish to raise the minimum wage even higher; this means that the number of young black males who can do anything you would pay money to have them do gets smaller; but no one notices that cause and effect. Minimum wages might make sense when there is no alternative – the job has to be done – but a minimum wage for starting workers learning what they must do means there are fewer ventures and a lot of jobs just don’t appear.

But you knew that.

And it’s still Pledge Week, and if you have never subscribed, this is the time to do it. Click here

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html  and become a patron, or even a platinum subscriber.

If you have subscribed but don’t remember when, now is when you should do it. Click here http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html and renew.

Scrambling Carrier-Based Fighters

YOKOSUKA NAVAL BASE, Japan — The USS Ronald Reagan scrambled its fighter jets earlier this week after two Russian naval reconnaissance aircraft flew within one nautical mile of the U.S. aircraft carrier as it sailed in international waters east of the Korean Peninsula, according to 7th Fleet officials.

In the latest in a series of incidents involving Russian aircraft, two Tupolev Tu-142 Bear aircraft flew as low as 500 feet Tuesday morning near the Reagan, which has been conducting scheduled maneuvers with South Korean navy ships. Four F/A-18 Super Hornets took off from the Reagan’s flight deck in response to the Russian advance, 7th Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Lauren Cole said Thursday.

Full article at Stars and Stripes:

http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/russian-aircraft-approach-uss-ronald-reagan-prompting-us-fighter-jet-scramble-1.375709

Seems to me that this kind of stuff used to happen all the time in Soviet times.  Do our new generation of troops (and theirs) know how to deal with it?

Best wishes for your continued recovery!

David

Not so much after Reagan became President. But yes… We’ll see more of this of course

Military blimp goes AWOL for a joy ride up the East Coast

The Pentagon said Wednesday that U.S. fighter jets were tracking an unmanned Army surveillance blimp that tore loose from its ground tether in Maryland and drifted north over Pennsylvania. (Oct. 28) AP

WASHINGTON – The Pentagon got its blimp back.

It went AWOL from Aberdeen Proving Grounds in Maryland on Wednesday, snapping a more than one-inch thick cable and hitting the skies on a joy ride over the farm fields and towns of eastern Pennsylvania.

It’s hard to hide when you’re a blimp, and at nearly the size of a football field, this one has attracted attention and Tweets and two fighter jets. The Pennsylvania governor issued a statement. The military, too. They were all anxious to let people who were monitoring the blimp’s progress, that, well, they were, too.

Confirmed predecessors to the Carrington Event

Jerry:

Massive solar storms in AD 744/745 and AD 993/994 have been confirmed by carbon-14 spikes both in tree rings and in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica.  More confirmation that such events are likely to happen every few hundred years.  We have yet to experience such an event in the Information Age.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151026112106.htm

Best regards,

Doug Ely

Extreme solar storms could be more common than expected

Jerry,

I am not sure there is anything really new in this article but it is brief and does mention an estimate (5 months) of the duration of power outages from a Carrington-like event were it to happen today.

Title and link follow.

Extreme solar storms could be more common than expected

​http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/10/extreme-solar-storms-could-be-more-common-than-expected/

Regards,

George​

We’ve discussed this before. It’s inevitable, but we don’t know when.

A new approach to solving “the ISIS problem”
Dear Jerry,
Did you notice this in Scott Adams’ blog:
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/131952466891/how-a-hypnotist-would-solve-isis
{You can’t bomb an idea to death. So how do you ever defeat the idea that is ISIS?
To kill an idea, you need a hypnotist, or someone skilled in the art of persuasion. I’ll describe one way to do it. I do not expect any of the candidates to favor this approach. So what follows is not a policy suggestion so much as an example of how a trained hypnotist would kill an idea.
[As always, don’t take cartoonists too seriously. In this blog we kick around new ideas for entertainment. New readers of this blog need to know I am a trained hypnotist.]
A hypnotist would start by defining ISIS in a way that is true (enough) but provides some sort of psychological advantage. For example, you could start by defining the ISIS brand of Islam as “historical” as opposed to modern. That might not be the right world, but you get the idea. We want a label that is fresh (such as “low-energy” or “nice”) so we can imbue it with the qualities we want. In this model, we stop using the old language of “religious extremists” and similar labels because the old words have not helped us enough.
Then we A-B test historical Islam versus modern Islam to see which one does best.
The way you A-B test “historical” Islam is by first putting a wall around the ISIS caliphate, which means a combination of drones, mines, fences, moats, and whatever works. Neighboring countries will do the heavy lifting on the borders. They have the money and the incentive to keep ISIS out.
Some of you will say walls never work. And that is true if you are speaking in military terms. A wall won’t stop an army in the long run. But this wall would not be built to stop an army. Nor would it stop every individual with bad intent. It doesn’t need to.
We are trying to kill an idea with this wall. The wall would exist to define the territory where the idea will be tested. In this context, the wall can be a little bit porous and still work okay.
Once the border around the caliphate is mostly secure, we declare that “historical Islam” is on one side of the wall and modern Islam is (mostly) everywhere else. Instead of saying we want to kill all folks who subscribe to this “historical” brand of ISIS Islam, we say we want to see how their world thrives compared to ours. So our plan is to leave the Caliphate alone and see how they do.
Here’s the best part of the plan: Over time, our stated objective would be to drain from the caliphate all technology that was invented or manufactured by heathens. The ISIS-controlled caliphate would be left with an “historical” version of Islam. That would be our gift to them. We’re just trying to help.
We could remove modern transportation options from ISIS by bombing oil refineries and keeping borders sealed. I hope we can someday use drones to jam satellite signals over selected areas as well. Eventually all electric power plants would be removed from the Caliphate, and their electronic devices would become worthless.
But that isn’t enough. We also need to provide massive amounts of pre-modern farming supplies, food, and medical supplies, so the innocent population can eat, and also to reinforce the image that we are helping ISIS get to their “historical” version of Islam.
For example, we might airdrop plows and seeds and other early farming implements. And all of it should have a label that says we are supporting ISIS in its plan to live a pre-modern version of Islam. I would go so far as to provide copies of the Koran – lots of them – with no edits and no surprises. We might include a cover letter explaining our helpfulness and our desire to let the Caliphate thrive under its own set of rules.
The leaders of ISIS will have a hard time convincing the locals that the countries giving them free farming supplies are the enemy.
Once we create a “digital jail” for ISIS, where no one can use modern technology to communicate, and almost no one can leave or enter, we will also control their access to news. And that’s what you need to kill an idea.
Obviously we would need to be proactive about allowing innocents to leave the Caliphate. And by innocents, I mean women and small kids. The men of fighting age probably have to stay, so they can kill whatever is left of ISIS when the time comes.
The basic idea I am proposing is to switch from enemy mode (killing humans) to helpful mode (removing heathen technology). Instead of saying we want to end ISIS, say we want to give them a chance to show the world they are right. Just as soon as they give up their heathen-made technology.
If you want to kill an idea, you have to go after the idea directly. And the best way to kill an idea is with a friendly embrace and a bright light.
Trump says he wants to put a wall around ISIS and bomb their oil refineries. That’s how a Master Persuader approaches this sort of thing. }
Hope you sort out your “Surface problems” soon.
Regards,
Roy

ISIS under its own proclamation has no right to exist or rule if it has no territory; its purpose is to impose strict sharia law on faithful and infidels alike. You can kill the idea of ISIS as Kitchener did after Khartoum. The Mahdi springs up now and then, but he has to be successful; either he rules somewhere of he is not the Mahdi.

In re Islam and the death of classical civilization, per Messr. Jordan.

I highly recommend this book, which updates Pirenne (whom I always found

persuasive) and thoroughly debunks the absurd and ahistorical ‘they preserved classical learning’ propaganda to which we’ve been subjected for the last 150 years or so:

<http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B006N0THLO>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

: Why Air Power Keeps Failing

I agree with the larger point, armies are generally army-centric, and ours is no exception. Look at air ops in Northwest Africa in ’42, for instance – we had adequate but far short of overwhelming air resources, but they tried at first to do a little bit of everything and spent some months achieving only modest amounts of anything.

Air supremacy is an excellent task for a separate air force – if you can afford it. And we certainly ought to be able to afford both that and dedicated professional ground-support forces, if we weren’t being pulled about as far up the diminishing-returns maximum-quality aircraft cost curve as it’s possible to go.

A quibble about WW II BoB, mind: The Luftwaffe understood just fine how to achieve air supremacy – go for the opposition’s air fields and support structure while also forcing them to come up and be atritted in the air. My read of ultimately why the Germans failed at the Channel is that the Brits (unlike everyone else to that point) had a good enough air defense that it was going to cost the Luftwaffe massive losses – on the rough order of half of their total air force – to grind the RAF into dust. German leadership (Goering) couldn’t stomach that price, backed off the proven winning approach partway, and commenced trying to find ways to win on the cheap – none of which worked.

Henry

Actually, Eagle started without realization by Goering that air bases were more important than airplanes; but the no one realized that fully for a long time. The Britain bombed Berlin, and Hitler ordered the Luftwaffe to waste planes and time on London, and Britain was saved.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, October 27, 2015

The Surface remains unusable, and I sort of need it; the consensus among my advisors is that I had a bad keyboard connection, and the endless blue-screen, diagnosis, repair, reset, blue screen has happened to others. The remedy is said to be start in safe mode, but to do that I need a keyboard it listens to, and it doesn’t do that until it has an operating system, and — We’ll try a USB keyboard next. There has to be some way to nuke it from orbit and install everything new, and we’ll get to that sometime this week. I like the Surface Pro a lot, but this is sure changing my mind about giving it a place among the machines I can rely on.

Tomorrow’s Wednesday and Niven and Barnes will be over, and the day pretty well devoted to fiction. It’s early on in the campaign season so there’s not much to be said.

The other night I hit 33 by mistake when I thought I was hitting fast forward, and found myself in CNN which I don’t watch; but there was Carly Fiorina in a town hall meeting, small audience, and she was taking questions. I listened for half an hour or longer. She took every question, gave thoughtful answers to each, some at length, and I don’t think I disagreed with her on any of the answers. It wasn’t always the policy I’d adopt, but none of what she’d do was anathema, either. I’d be happy with her for President. I don’t suppose she has the money to win the nomination, but it’s not impossible. Of course I expect that thousands, thousands, I tell you, heard her performance.

One thing she said was that the bureaucracy is killing us; reducing its size is complicated; but several hundred thousand retire every year, and she wouldn’t replace a single one of them. That alone would shrink the government over a few years, and she could do that as President…

And it’s back to fiction.

It’s still pledge week at KUSC and thus at Chaos Manor. This place operates on the public radio plan. It’s free, but if you don’t subscribe and renew, it will go away. We got a lot of renewals, and some new subscribers this week, so the trend is in the right direction. If you haven’t subscribed, do so now, it’s as good a time as any. If you haven’t renewed this year, this is a good time to do it. Go to http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html and do it now. You’ll feel better. I’ll feel better…

“Finally, after months of beads being spitted uncontrollably from the tractor beam we had success. All my hard work has paid off, it’s brilliant.”

<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/star-wars-star-trek-sonic-tractor-beam-invented-by-scientists-a6710836.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Darth Vader’s Death Star and Captain Kirk’s Starship Enterprise both had one.

Now the tractor beam, that science fiction favourite deployed to memorable

effect in numerous films and television series over the years, has finally arrived on Earth.

Not quite what we wanted, but this one works…

Now THIS…

…should be VERY interesting!

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/10/151027-cassini-enceladus-ocean-plume-space/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=link_fb20151027news-enceladus&utm_campaign=Content&sf14592706=1
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

My Last Email on ISIS

Hopefully, this will be the last time I email you about ISIS; I’ve been hearing the word “Daesh” lately, But I didn’t look into it until

now:

<.>

The term “Daesh” is strategically a better choice because it is still accurate in that it spells out the acronym of the group’s full Arabic name, al-Dawla al-Islamiya fi al-Iraq wa al-Sham. Yet, at the same time, “Daesh” can also be understood as a play on words — and an insult. Depending on how it is conjugated in Arabic, it can mean anything from “to trample down and crush” to “a bigot who imposes his view on others.” Already, the group has reportedly threatened to cut out the tongues of anyone who uses the term.

Why do they care so much? The same reason the United States should.

Language matters.

With some 30,000 to 50,000 fighters, Daesh is a relatively small group, and propaganda is central to its growth strategy. Whether hijacking popular Twitter hashtags or using little known distribution channels to post videos to YouTube, their leadership knows that the war of words online is just as key to increasing its power and influence as the actual gruesome acts they commit on the ground.

By using the militants’ preferred names, the US government implicitly gives them legitimacy. But referring to the group as Daesh doesn’t just withhold validity. It also might help the United States craft better policy.

</>

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/10/09/words-matter-isis-war-use-daesh/V85GYEuasEEJgrUun0dMUP/story.html

As always, the information war is important and ongoing. This article makes a clear, valid point.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I prefer to call it The Caliphate, which expresses their goals perfectly.

Why ‘climate justice’ has India and the West at each other’s throats

The developing nations seem to have finally realized that Carbon emissions restrictions equal energy rationing which equals restrictions on economic growth.

http://theweek.com/articles/584216/why-climate-justice-india-west-each-others-throats

James Crawford=

Took ‘em long enough to figure it out. I pointed that out in A Step Farther Out a long time ago..

Islam, 1,400 years of Murder

This is an interesting video and I believe it is worth your time. If you would humor me and take 10 minutes of time to check it out, I’d like your opinion.

I knew the German barbarians weren’t as stupid as they tell us in school, but I didn’t know Islam seems to be responsible for the Dark Ages, the corruption of Christianity into what passes as the same in 2015, and more…

It’s hard to disagree with him…. But, I’m not a historian…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONhVB9kIzKI

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Islam, historically, engages in economic warfare whenever it can.

That video I sent you today discussed how — before Islam invaded Northern Africa — couriers from Italy to France would use the Mediterranean Sea. After Islam, there was no freedom on the sea and they went through the Alps to avoid pirates — much like the pirates in Somalia today. Back then, you would also be enslaved once your boat and cargo were stolen. This decimated the European economies and Spain fell to Islam.

Bin Laden spoke of the U.S. economy and his criticisms were apt. He said their strategy was to undermine faith in the United States since the US economy was 76% service at the time and he posited the value of a service is only worth what someone will pay for it. Without faith, that price would be lower or something like that. Apparently, he thought attacking financial centers — like the World Trade Center — would wipe out a swathe of our economy. I don’t know where the text of that speech is; I found it on some aggregate news website– maybe Drudge — and read it out of curiosity.

Then consider the latest Al Qaeda threat:

<.>

A notorious al Qaeda magazine is encouraging lone-wolf terrorist attacks on U.S. economic leaders, including Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg and Warren Buffett.

The list in Inspire magazine also included industrialist brothers Charles and David Koch, internet entrepreneur Larry Ellison, and casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. A prominent economist was also on the list but asked that his name be withheld. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was named, though not Janet Yellen, who succeeded him.

Also pictured was Jim Walton, one of the heirs to the Wal-Mart fortune, although he was misidentified in the caption as his late father, Sam Walton. Several other names on the list were misspelled.

</>

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/al-qaeda-mag-urges-attack-koch-brothers-buffett-bloomberg-n424386

Again, we note economic warfare or at least a desire to undertake such warfare. It remains to be seen how effective measures and countermeasure will prove in this latest piece of terrorist theater.

However there is another idea that’s been floating around for a few days at Chaos Manor. James Crawford wrote of the refugee flood and its application as shock troops. He also pointed out — what R.D.

Kaplan referred to — as the disenfranchised warrior class of young men. They have no jobs and are at risk for becoming terrorists. And, how kind of the House of Saud to offer to build a mosque for every 100 refugees in Germany. No doubt they’ll also finance the vitriol laced Friday prayers that are sure to occur in at least a few of these

mosques:

<.>

Saudi Arabia has reportedly responded to the growing number of people fleeing the Middle East for western Europe – by offering to build 200 mosques in Germany.

</>

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/saudi-arabia-offers-germany-200-mosques–one-for-every-100-refugees-who-arrived-last-weekend-10495082.html

And China told it’s people we have a responsibility to care for Syrian refugees and we should take more but they won’t take any. Well, it’s happening on their continent. We have an ocean between us and Syria; how is this our responsibility? But, notice all our enemies are agreed.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Tactics, strategy, and politics

This article is worth most people’s time. While I presume you have a keen grasp of the subject matter contained herein, a past contributor

— whose name escapes me at the moment — mentioned the difference between doctrine and weapons systems. If I were at my PC I run a Google search on your site and name the contributor because the point was apt. However, I’m on my mobile phone and lack the time to do it so I respectfully request allowances in this matter.

Having said that, this article touches upon that point in more detail and applies that point not only in the military sense but also stretches into its implication for the body politic. the article mentions essays and statements by other people commented on the matter and you may find it interesting even if you’re already abreast with the substance of the discussion.

@WarOnTheRocks: If one cannot tell the difference between task and purpose, how can one become a strategist? http://ow.ly/T1xI9

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Monday, October 26, 2015

Today was mostly devoured by locusts, although it ended with a nice dinner with friends.

I have killed my Surface Pro 3. Perhaps Eric can revive it; we’ll see.

Today my Surface Pro 4 keyboard came. It looks good. Very good. The keys are separated, making it a lot less likely for a clumsy typist to hit two keys at once. Since my stroke I have been entirely unable to touch type, and my two finger efforts often result in multiple keystrikes; I often spend as much time correcting a sentence as I did writing it.

I had read in reviews that the Surface Pro 4 keyboard would work in the Surface Pro 3, and on inspection the connectors looked identical. I thought what the hell, took the Surface Pro 3 out of the docking station, swapped keyboards noting that the Pro 4 keyboard had the defect of not having a loop into which you could insert the stylus for safekeeping and carrying, but did have a new area obviously intended for fingerprint input. The swap was easy, and nothing happened to the Pro 3. I put it back in the docking station

It did not fit as easily; the docking station could close without quite making contact, and the little light that indicates closure is tiny and it’s easy to overlook that it’s not on. The battery icon showed that Precious was not being charged. I fussed with the seating in the docking station and it closed properly this time, the little light on the dock showed, and the battery icon on the screen chowed that it was charging.

The Surface Pro 3 was working properly but I had been using the touch screen; now I tried the Pro 4 keyboard, and nope: it was as if it were not attached. The mush pad had no effect on the cursor, and no key I hit did anything. I fooled about a bit aimlessly, but it was getting lunchtime and in an hour Larry would arrive to take us to an interview and dinner, so I was perhaps in more of a hurry than I ought to be.

I looked in the box. A manual, sort of, in many languages, but I couldn’t see any useful information, and I was unlikely to do any of the silly things it warned me not to do; and told me nothing about using that keyboard.

Do I decided to reset the system. Did; it said it needed an update; odd, perhaps it detected the strange keyboard? I pressed update and install. It trundled.

It took a while downloading and installing, but nothing disturbing. Came time for the final restart –

And now Precious is in an endless cycle of partial reboots, detecting an error, doing what it thinks is repair, restarting, finding the same errors, attempting to repair, etc. etc.

I’ll get Eric over to see if he can do anything. Of course I have the OLD keyboard in there now, but restoring the old Pro 3 keyboard has not changed the problem. More when I know more. It’s bed time.

It’s pledge week at KUSC which means I get to annoy you about renewals if you haven’t renewed in a while, and subscribing if you haven’t ever subscribed. This place operates on the Public Radio model: it’s free, and don’t want your rent money, but if I don’t get enough subscriptions, this place will go away. We have got quite a few renewals and some new subscriptions already. Keep them coming. Patron subscriptions are $36 Dollars; not per month as KUSC wants. Just per year, or as often as you think you should renew. Platinum subscriptions are $100, generally per once a year. Regular subscriptions are $20 when you feel like it, certainly at least once a year. See Paying for This Place for more information. If you have never subscribed, now’s the time. If you don’t remember when you last renewed this is a good time. If you have a vague feeling that you haven’t subscribed in a while – well, you get the idea.

I don’t like grubbing for money, but this seems to work. I don’t do it often, only when my local good music station has a pledge drive. I don’t annoy you with adds, and I easily could. And we’re all tired of this paragraph. Subscribe now and get it done with

Astronomers spot incredibly rare, insanely explosive pair of stars

Jerry
This goes beyond a “contact binary” to an “overcontact binary,” with the two O-class stars sharing 30% of their mass:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/216779-astronauts-spot-incredibly-rare-insanely-explosive-pair-of-stars
If/when they blow, they will sterilize “every single planet within a non-trivial distance.” The article also cites a gamma ray burst that was so bright that it likely did the same, over galactic distances.
This makes me wonder if the paucity of interstellar contacts with other civilizations has to do with literally cosmic events. Brr.
The article also links to this visual display of spectral class stellar relative sizes.
Do have your astronomer friend comment on this. Looks fairly interesting. It will fascinating to see how it all turns out – and when.
Ed

I have asked Stephanie to comment. She did so, quickly, and hasn’t had a lot of time to think on this.

I was just about to log off and go to bed when I saw this (it is about 2:30am here). I will see about responding more later.

But such overcontact binaries are not THAT unusual. My graduate work was in binary variable stars, and so I can state for a fact that’s the case. We used to nickname ’em “peanut stars,” ’cause that’s about the shape. I’ve never heard the “strapless bra” reference before. Seems a bit crass.

On the other hand, two O stars in an overcontact binary IS rarer, true. I would have to question, however, what precisely the full designation is of the two stars — usually the full spectral classification consists of (at least) a letter and a Roman numeral. (Sometimes an Arabic number is also added immediately after the letter, to subdivide the spectral class.) The letter — O, B, A, F, G, K, M, R, N, S — tend to denote photospheric temperatures/colors, and the Roman numeral denotes the size/luminosity. 

Example: Our Sun is a G2V. This means it is spectral type G, subcategory 2, and the V means it is a dwarf main sequence star. AKA yellow dwarf star.

Nowhere can I find a designation of the actual size of the stars in the system. I assume, given the reference to a hypergiant if they merged, and a combined mass of about 57 solar masses, that they are at least a II or III, and possibly a I — but not a 0. (III = giant; II = bright giant; I = supergiant; 0 = hypergiant.) I fully expect them NOT to have the exact same spectral designation; that very rarely happens, to be so perfectly twinned.

Still and all, it is unlikely to be nearly so catastrophic as is being claimed.

For one thing, the probability that they will both supernova at the same time is essentially nil. And once one of ’em does go blooie, that pretty much takes care of the problem, because it will blow the other star’s outer layers to hell and back again, leaving mostly the stellar core, which will be much hotter than the outer layers but much less massive than the original star. (This sort of thing has been observed, not happening, but the aftermath — with the hot, compact stellar core orbiting the stellar remnant.) It will also ensure that the other star cannot supernova, because a supernova is kind of the irresistible force (outer layers falling inward relativistically under gravitation) meeting the immovable object (the core, which is USUALLY a neutron star, made up of nucleon-degenerate matter), and the explosion itself is the resultant “splat.” It’s also how all the really heavy elements get made, as there is kinetic energy and to spare and to waste, in forcing together nuclei that normally don’t want to hold together. Anyway, so without the outer layers, the second star can’t really supernova. It’ll just gradually exhaust its fuel and probably pull a white dwarf. If there’s enough mass left, it can maybe still form a neutron star, but without the big blooie. 

If the first star does indeed form a black hole (and it sounds like it is big enough, regardless of which one of the pair), then we are probably looking at it cannibalizing the companion star pretty rapidly, given proximity. And again, that would pretty much prevent the companion’s going blooie. Arguably this could be considered a merger, but it isn’t the type being talked about, where they are both already black holes spiraling into each other. 

I just really can’t see either the double-supernova scenario OR the two-black-holes death-spiral scenario occurring. Were they farther apart, then perhaps. It is the very fact that they are an overcontact binary that I think will actually prevent those scenarios.

However, it should be noted that even a standard supernova can clear a wide swath of life — depending who you talk to, on order of 100LY radius. And yes, GRBs are much more powerful — but tend to be directed, as I understand it. Still and all, such things are factored in as one possible solution of the Fermi Paradox.

Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

My own thought is that it’s not likely to do much to us at that distance… We’ll have more when Jim gets back from a business trip.

A reader says:

Sometimes your web site takes more time than I have time to  think!  That’s a good thing, btw. 

The Dyson sphere discussion is one of those times

And yet there’s a touch more.

Dyson Swarm

Jerry,

Most of the popular articles on the oddly variable star KIC 8462852 are misusing the term “Dyson Sphere”, of course – a true Dyson sphere would totally enclose the star and collect all its energy, and would be visible externally only as a warm-ish infrared source. What we’re talking about here is the possibility that 8462852 is a “Dyson Swarm” – a star with enough orbiting energy-collection structures to block a significant fraction of its total output.

Not as remarkable a possibility as an actual Dyson Sphere, of course, but remarkable enough for me. The combination of variability too complex and large to be caused by a small number of planets and the apparent absence of the dust you’d expect to accompany a large number of natural-origin bodies is intriguing. I’m looking forward to the results of proposed radio-telescope surveys. I’m also hoping some bright person can take the existing Kepler data and come up with an orbiting-objects model (or models) that fits the observed variations.

Interesting times, indeed. In the good sense, in this case.

Henry

Dyson Sphere discussion

Jerry, just a few closing remarks.

1) Lack of artificial signal from the star: As I said in the original correspondence, it does not matter what type of communications medium an alien race might use; human astronomers are well equipped to detect it. As I mentioned, Claudio Maccone, the chairman of the SETI Permanent Committee of the International Academy of Astronautics, is a friend of mine and we have actively discussed what alien comm might look like, as well as ways to communicate over interplanetary and interstellar distances. If there were an alien race around that star, it would be the brightest object in WHATEVER MEANS they chose to communicate — and it isn’t. In any means, visible, IR, microwave, radio, UV, X-ray, gamma-ray, neutrino, WHATEVER. It simply isn’t. And they have to be able to broadcast/transmit — you cannot string fiber optics all around a stellar system for ALL of your comm. Also, contrary to popular belief, lasers are not THAT highly collimated, and spread out a considerable distance just from here to the Moon; how much the more interplanetary distances? Which again means that we would see the comm. More, since lasing frequencies are readily calculated and many used here, we know exactly where to look. And again, we don’t see it.

2) Since the IR is coming FROM the purported orbital structure, the notion that the structure is BLOCKING said IR is moot. And it is therefore also not possible to redirect the IR. The structure becomes a blackbody radiator, absorbing all of the star’s energies, rising to a given temperature, and radiating at a frequency corresponding to that temperature, which would (per calculations) be in the IR. Also you don’t want to stop the radiation, as this provides the equilibrium system to prevent runaway temperature rise.

3) The whole point of a Dyson sphere was originally to create a homeworld-type environment which could be inhabited around the entire star, while collecting all of the energy release of that star. Therefore you would indeed want to place the sphere at approximately the orbital radius of the homeworld; it is no fallacy, but was inherent to the original concept. If, of course, you only want to capture the star’s energy, you can place it at any distance you like, though certain distances will be more efficient than others, and placing the structure at the homeworld’s distance, or proximal, is certainly easiest. It is worth noting that the objects occulting the star are in fact roughly in the Earth to Mars orbital range, judging by their period(s) of occultation.

4) No structure is ever going to simply “hover.” That just isn’t the way the universe works. You can begin by placing it in hover mode, but it will not remain there, for the simple reason that you will have many other forces working on it. Remember that we still have not solved the multi-body problem: this is because of the extreme complexity of the forces involved, and it would have to be solved — or approximated to an immense accuracy — in order to “hover” structures in orbit around a star. More, you would have other things acting upon it. It isn’t, for example, a matter of IF a micrometeoroid hits a solar sail — it’s WHEN. And over time, the tiny, incremental momentum imparted will mount up. And the more system material you’ve incorporated into your structure, the less you have left over for adjusting. Solar sails can “tack,” but as soon as you start all that, now you have motion that subtracts from the “hover;” you’ve just destabilized the system, and it will start to fall from orbit.

5) It is also worth noting that whatever is being seen is NOT “hovering,” but actively in orbit about the star.

6) I will repeat my original statements regarding a ring structure and segmental variants: a ringworld is the ONLY such construct which has a hope of working. And it has its own problems: the orbit must be circularized, and perfectly circular orbits are NOT natural, and tend to be easily perturbed into elliptical orbits, which then deforms a solid ring to the point of breaking, and which will tend to result in collisions between components if the ring is unconnected. (Accelerating as they near periastron, decelerating as they approach apastron, etc.) Yes, you will have transverse forces on a ring structure as well, but assuming a relatively narrow ring, they will be much much less than the forces on the polar regions of a Dyson sphere.

7) Magnetic suspension of an orbital ring: The thing to realize here is that stars do not have simple, relatively unvarying dipolar magnetic fields like Earth. Stars are not solid bodies — they differentially rotate. This means that the core does not rotate at the same speed as the photosphere, and the equator does not rotate at the same speed as the circumpolar regions. And all of that differentially-rotating material is plasma, aka charged particles — aka electric currents. This scenario results in a very complicated dynamo, or series of dynamos, which in turn results in a very complex, and often varying, magnetic field. And this is quite aside from stellar winds (plasma flowing away from the star), coronal holes (locations where the magnetic fields don’t recurve back to the star but, like at the poles, extend out to infinity), coronal mass ejections (titanic “mushroom clouds” of plasma thrown off by giant magnetic reconnection events), etc. — which latter would be potentially devastating to a Dyson or ring structure anyway, and which I haven’t brought up until now. So while theoretically possible, from a practical engineering standpoint, probably not possible.

8) And again, let me just point out that the concept of a true Dyson sphere was tossed out by humans years ago as being impossible to build (due simply to the orbital mechanics) without some serious exotic matter…which would, again, almost certainly require interstellar travel in order to obtain. And frankly if you have the ability and technology to manipulate such exotic matter, you have the ability and technology to do interstellar travel anyway.

9) Colonization as an overpopulation solution: only in the near term, agreed. Very quickly the colonies would establish population increase rates of their own, which would negate the homeworld solution, unless whatever organizing body imposed some very harsh reproduction rates/rules on the colony…which rules likely wouldn’t last long, at least on an “existence of the race” timescale. For that matter, the governing/overseeing body probably wouldn’t last much longer than said rules. 

Jerry, I will try to get on to the other thing you sent me last night, very shortly. I think the analysis I sent you last night is correct, but there are a few things I want to check first — my technical analysis ability may not have been enhanced by being exercised an hour past my usual bedtime of 2am…
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Freeman Dyson on climate change, interstellar travel, fusion, and more • The Register

Greetings, sir. I thought you might be interested in this interview with Freeman Dyson. I’m including an excerpt with a link to the rest of the interview.

Take care,

Tim Elliott

Are climate models getting better? You wrote how they have the most awful fudges, and they only really impress people who don’t know about them.

I would say the opposite. What has happened in the past 10 years is that the discrepancies between what’s observed and what’s predicted have become much stronger. It’s clear now the models are wrong, but it wasn’t so clear 10 years ago. I can’t say if they’ll always be wrong, but the observations are improving and so the models are becoming more verifiable.

It’s now difficult for scientists to have frank and honest input into public debates. Prof Brian Cox, who is the public face of physics in the UK thanks to the BBC, has said he has no obligation to listen to “deniers,” or to any other views other than the orthodoxy.

That’s a problem, but still I find that I have things to say and people do listen to me, and people have no particular complaints.

It’s very sad that in this country, political opinion parted [people’s views on climate change]. I’m 100 per cent Democrat myself, and I like Obama. But he took the wrong side on this issue, and the Republicans took the right side.

Because the big growing countries need fossil fuels, the political goal of mitigation, by reducing or redirecting industrial activity and consumer behaviour, now seems quite futile in the West.

China and India rely on coal to keep growing, so they’ll clearly be burning coal in huge amounts. They need that to get rich. Whatever the rest of the world agrees to, China and India will continue to burn coal, so the discussion is quite pointless.

At the same time, coal is very unpleasant stuff, and there are problems with coal quite apart from climate. I remember in England when we burned coal, everything was filthy. It was really bad, and that’s the way it is now in China, but you can clean that up as we did in England. It takes a certain amount of political willpower, and that takes time. Pollution is quite separate to the climate problem: one can be solved, and the other cannot, and the public doesn’t understand that.

Have you heard of the phrase “virtue signalling“? The UK bureaucracy made climate change its foreign policy priority, and we heard a lot of the phrase “leading the world in the fight …” and by doing so, it seemed to be making a public declaration of its goodness and virtue …

No [laughs]. Well, India and China aren’t buying that. When you go beyond 50 years, everything will change. As far as the next 50 years are concerned, there are two main forces of energy, which are coal and shale gas. Emissions have been going down in the US while they’ve going up in Europe, and that’s because of shale gas. It’s only half the carbon dioxide emissions of coal. China may in fact be able to develop shale gas on a big scale and that means they burn a lot less coal.

It seems complete madness to prohibit shale gas. You wondered if climate change is an Anglophone preoccupation. Well, France is even more dogmatic than Britain about shale gas!

…Now for my space-mad children’s question. They want to get to the stars. So how are we going to get there – what’s the best prospect for interstellar travel?

The main point is to leave the energy source behind; don’t carry it on the ship. What makes a huge difference if you really want to go fast is have a big laser in space, and ride the beam. The beam will supply the energy and you don’t have to carry it with you. It’s essentially a public highway system with the laser beam as the highway, and little ships with sails. That works and doesn’t involve any new physics – it’s just a question of engineering. And you could get up to half the speed of light, and that’s much better than you can with any energy source you have with you.

That was proposed by Bob Forward, he worked out the details, and it certainly does work. He called it Starwisp. You’re using the speed of light in your favour: you’re borrowing the momentum from the light.

Finally, what are your views on fusion? Do you see any real progress being made?

I think they made a terrible mistake 50 years ago when they stopped doing science and went to big engineering projects. These big engineering projects are not going to solve the problem, and they’ve become just a welfare programme for the engineers. You have these big projects, both national and international, that are really a dead end as far as I can see. Even if they’re successful, they won’t provide energy that’s useful and cheap.

But it’s not clear when you do science, whether you’ll discover anything or not. But that’s the only answer.

So with fusion, we should go back to the drawing board?

Yes, and it’s not going to solve any problems for the near future.

But I don’t think there is a problem in the near future anyway [laughs].

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/10/11/freeman_dyson_interview/

Top Physicist Freeman Dyson: Obama ‘Took the Wrong Side’ on Climate Change

A good article about Dyson’s “heresy” on the topic of CAGW, catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. The Gaeaists will never forgive him.

Top Physicist Freeman Dyson: Obama ‘Took the Wrong Side’ on Climate Change

http://cnsnews.com/blog/mairead-mcardle/top-physicist-freeman-dyson-obama-took-wrong-side-climate-change

Regards,

Jim R

I have always considered Mr. Dyson as one of the sanest men on this planet

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Saturday, October 24, 2015

I’ve been busy with fiction and other stuff for days. I have also been faithfully doing the Five Tibetan Rites daily, which is good for me but tiring. If you don’t know about The Five Tibetan Rites, you should learn; they may not be your idea of a fitness program, but they do seem to work better than anything else I know of.

You can get a good idea of the mechanics of the Rites from Hugh Howie and Amber http://www.hughhowey.com/the-five-tibetans/ but for a bit more of the background and the importance of form, see Ellen Rush https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjtslbrFbLY , and there are more expositions all over the web. Form vs. getting through enough repetitions is a long time question. Howie is an advocate of just getting through it. Various martial arts masters like Steve Barnes are more concerned with form. Steve says one of the goals is training the mind as well as the body, which is similar to what the physical therapists insisted on when I was first recovering from the stroke. My conclusion has been that you need both unless you have a coach, which is to say like most of us.

That is: before my stroke I was working up to sufficient repetitions of each Rite, but I never got there because I couldn’t do enough in proper form. I had the strength, probably – no, almost certainly – so I was letting myself go with what I thought was a good excuse. After the stroke I missed the Rites – couldn’t even get down on the floor, or get up if I did, and the thought of doing Rite One was absurd. But after watching Hugh Howie, I decided that I had always had better form than him and he was getting through all of them just as he could. Amber has better form than I will ever have. They both do this daily and speak highly of it, and they aren’t the only ones I respect who do – after all, it was Steve Barnes who introduced me to this rather obscure ritual, years ago, and it has served me well for years.

The result is that I do 21 repetitions of each Rite daily. The first few are in reasonable form, and I am working hard to get all of them right; but when I can’t do it in good form, I don’t quit. I just do what I can in good form, and get through 21 no matter how hard it is – or how long it takes, which, I fear, is one reason I haven’t written much here this week. (The other is that my typing is getting sloppy again; Microsoft has said they are shipping the Pro 4 keyboard, which looks good for correcting some of that, but really, it’s as Dr. Lupo, the Rehab doctor at Holy Cross where I learned to be something other than a vegetable after the stroke says, “practice makes perfect.” He was talking about just swallowing my breakfast, but I since found that one of the most useful bits of advice I have ever had.)

I will add that before the stroke, the Five Tibetans were pretty well good enough for all my formal exercise, but I did a lot of walking – a couple of miles a day – and my office was upstairs so I climbed those stairs many times a day.  Now I don’t, and I find that even with the Five Tibetans daily I need more exercise – walks with my walker, formal exercise, etc. – to keep from turning into a vegetable. Now that we don’t have a dog, it’s easy to forget to take a morning walk, and the consequences can be grave.  Pity, but there it is.  I’m working on a new schedule. 

One thing that would help is the right device for Audible and other audible books; I need to listen to some of my own since we are writing in that universe. Suggestions on the right equipment for an hour a day walk in a walker while listening to a book – equipment suitable for someone with Costco hearing aids – appreciated.  Thanks in advance; I’ll read it all, but I may not be able to answer every email. Please use subject “audible book reading.” I suppose I should add that Audible has done a good job of publishing Legacy of Heorot and Beowulf’s Children as audio books. They’re free on a special promotion just now, and very well done.

I have two comments on the paucity of posts this week. First, unfortunately this begins Pledge Week for KUSC, the LA good music station. It began Thursday, and runs until next Saturday. Long time readers will know that signals my own pledge drive. I run this place on the same model as KUSC: it’s free, but like Public Radio, if it doesn’t get support from users it will go away. That’s not immanent, as it happens, but it’s possible. In addition to the comments and essays, I read a lot of mail from readers, publish what I think is pertinent – usually with what I hope are intelligent comments – and encourage rational discussions, some of which I edit into publishable exchanges.

I also go through more press releases than I normally would, and tease out some that I think are worth your attention. That includes product announcements. I sometimes send email to the Platinum list; never more than one a day, always about something interesting; I can’t and wouldn’t send email to all patrons or readers, because it would be far too many.

Mostly I encourage rational discussion, including disagreements.

All of this takes up time.

The KUSC practice is to have their music program announcers vamp through pitches on why you should subscribe at $15 to $150 a month, and to give away prizes like free records — well Cd’s – well, DVD’s – prizes anyway, for subscribing NOW. I don’t ask for anything like that much. You and find out more at Paying For This Place http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html which tells all. If you’re curious as to what this place is, http://www.jerrypournelle.com/ has a lot of information.

So the pledge drive comes at an awkward moment when I was less productive than usual, but there it is. If you have been reading this for a while and just haven’t got around to subscribing, http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html will tell you more than you need to know. If you’ve subscribed but can’t remember when you last renewed, it’s probably time to renew. Go to http://www.jerrypournelle.com/paying.html and get it over with. It doesn’t take long.

And if you’ve recently renewed, as many of you have, I thank you.

I regret to announce:

Maureen O’Hara, RIP.

<http://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-maureen-ohara-20151025-story.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

I enjoyed her pictures a lot. RIP

Some residuum on the Dyson Sphere matter:

Jerry:

I was delighted to see my amateur musings on Dyson spheres in correspondence with Ms. Osborn reproduced on your website.

https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/dyson-spheres-and-the-mile-high-club/

IMHO, our failure to detect communications from the star does not preclude the possibility that this is a Dyson sphere or other megastructure because it is predicated on the premises that the aliens use a communication medium that we can detect. This argument is akin to Neolithic savages concluding that a modern city can not be an artificial construct rather than a natural feature because they haven’t seen any smoke signals or heard any drums. If the aliens rely on anything as mundane as tight beam lasers or fiber optics for communication, we will not detect them.

The absence of IR radiation to compensate for the decrease in emissions in the visible spectrum is the most compelling argument against the idea that the star is being occluded by an artificial structure. However; this argument is less compelling if the star is being periodically occluded by a megastructure that only partially occludes the star. How about a really big light said that is being launched towards Earth?

Finally, it is a fallacy to assume that a Dyson sphere or other megahabitat should be built at the same orbital radius from the star as the home planet of the builders. Because the radiating surface of a planet is four times greater than the instellation surface, a planet is on average much cooler than a flat surface that constantly faces the star would be. A Dyson sphere might and probably should be built at a greater distance from the star than the home planet. Of course Ms. Osborn is correct that a Dyson sphere or a “Bowl of Heaven” would collapse under a star’s gravity unless the materials were astonishingly strong. Even Niven’s Ringworld would experience substantial gravitational force transverse to it’s circumference that would compress it into a string. An armada of lightsails that enclose a star and use light pressure to support themselves is possible, but a large number of collectors in carefully orchestrated and actively managed orbits is more plausible.

James Crawford=

Orbital Rings and Dyson Spheres
A couple of possible “engineering” counter-points to some of the “science” objections raised against orbital rings and Dyson spheres:
Circular Orbital rings:
More of a question than a point – might an orbital ring be maintained in a circular orbit using electromagnetic interaction with the sun’s magnetosphere? The magnetic field is weak, but the size of the coils could be huge, and there should be plentiful solar power to feed the coils. Continuous maintenance of a circular orbit ought to require much less power than attempts to restore circularity from an elliptical orbit. If it is workable, it would eliminate most of the requirement for reaction mass.
Dyson Sphere radiation detection:
If the Builders wished to minimize their IR signature in most directions, it should be possible to direct their IR radiation mostly in two opposing directions, for example along a line perpendicular to the galactic plane.
For simplicity of terminology, think of the sphere as having an “up/down” orientation. Directed IR radiation could be accomplished by making the surface a series of stair-steps – with “horizontal” surfaces highly conductive while “vertical” surfaces are highly insulated, forcing most IR radiation into the “vertical” directions. Seen exactly edge on, there would be very little IR radiation, increasing at higher angles. The directional effect might be further enhanced by putting the radiating surfaces in insulated wells.
Tom Craver

Still yet more thoughts on Dyson Spheres

As regards whether it is more efficient to build a “Dyson Sphere” around a star, or engage in interstellar colonization, here’s something else to think about.
Consider the information transmission time between different elements of a civilization that are separated by A. Dyson sphere: light minutes B. Interstellar colony: dozens/hundreds of light years. Now think about how fast information can spread, and how rich/vital the respective civilizations might be…
If the neurons of a human brain could be separated by hundreds of kilometers from each other, but the same pattern of connections maintained, and the absolute transmission speed is the same, it would be as smart… but way, way, slower.
Also, as regards colonization as a solution to a population problem: Nah. As Asimov pointed out, if population doubled every 47 years (it recently doubled every 18 years in Syria!) it would take only 6700 years to convert all the matter in the universe into human flesh. So the answer to population growth is neither interstellar colonization nor Dyson spheres, but population growth restraint (which may be either the easy way or, like recent Syria, the hard way). If civilizations do build things like Dyson Spheres, surely it will be to increase the richness of the culture/total computational power, not deal with an exponentially growing population, because in a finite universe that’s impossible. The issue is not ‘efficiency’ per se, but what you hope to achieve…

TG

Russia Hit the Iceberg

I guess when things get crazy, you go to what you know:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11937348/Russia-retreats-to-autarky-as-poverty-looms.html

https://news.yahoo.com/stalin-portraits-soviet-nostalgia-rule-ukraines-rebel-regions-052534004.html

It’s over. If we can’t get something worked out with Russia now or very soon, it seems we’ll need to pass through another round of unpleasantness before we sit down and look at this again. Your thoughts?

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

My thought? This was predictable and predicted. When Clinton let us get into the anti-Slav position in Europe, endorsing Albanian thugs rather than Serbian thugs and bombing Slavic Serbs and destroying the economy of the lower Danube, what did he expect to happen? NATO closed an iron ring around Russia. The US continues with entangling alliances and concerns itself with the territorial disputes in Europe that have gone on for hundreds of years, and now we wonder what is happening?

Assad and the Kurds are tolerant of Christians. (And Jordan, which is probably the next Arab state to fall despite last minute US efforts taken when we suddenly realize the problem.) The Caliphate is not, nor are most of the Sunni rebels. Russia has always had an interest in the Middle East, particularly Persia; we are astonished that this interest continues? They do not require history in most of the major universities; what would you predict that does for foreign policy?

It is a bit late now to invest our money in energy production and tell the Arabs to drink their oil, but it is perhaps not too late…

Of course Russia will become an autarky. What incentives have we ever given Russian patriots to do otherwise?

“If it’s an invasion map, you wouldn’t show the bus stations.

It’s a map for when you’re in charge.”

<http://www.wired.com/2015/07/secret-cold-war-maps/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Surprise!

Quantum Theory Experiment Said to Prove ‘Spooky’ Interactions    (nyt)

By JOHN MARKOFFOCT. 21, 2015

In a landmark study, scientists at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands reported they have conducted an experiment they say proves one of the most fundamental claims of quantum theory — that objects separated by great distance can instantaneously affect each other’s behavior.

The finding is another blow to one of the bedrock principles of standard physics known as “locality,” which states that an object is directly influenced only by its immediate surroundings. The Delft study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, lends further credence to an idea that Einstein famously rejected. He said quantum theory necessitated “spooky action at a distance,” and he refused to accept the notion that the universe could behave in such a strange and apparently random fashion.

In particular, Einstein derided the idea that separate particles could be “entangled” so completely that measuring one particle would instantaneously influence the other, regardless of the distance separating them.

Einstein was deeply unhappy with the uncertainty introduced by quantum theory and described the implications of quantum theory as akin to God playing dice.

But since the 1970’s, a series of precise experiments by physicists are increasingly erasing doubt — alternative explanations that are referred to as loopholes — that two previously entangled particles, even if separated by the width of the universe, could instantly communicate.

The new experiment, conducted by a group led by Ronald Hanson, a physicist at the Dutch university’s Kavli Institute of Nanoscience, and joined by scientists from Spain and England, is the strongest evidence yet to support the most fundamental claims of the theory of quantum mechanics about the existence of an odd world formed by a fabric of subatomic particles, where matter does not take form until it is observed and time runs backward as well as forward.

The researchers describe their experiment as a “loophole-free Bell test” in a reference to an experiment proposed in 1964 by the physicist John Stewart Bell as a way of proving that “spooky action at a distance” is real.

“These tests have been done since the late ’70s but always in the way that additional assumptions were needed,” Dr. Hanson said. “Now we have confirmed that there is spooky action at distance.”

According to the scientists they have now ruled out all possible so-called hidden variables that would offer explanations of long-distance entanglement based on the laws of classical physics.

The Delft researchers were able to entangle two electrons separated by a distance of 1.3 kilometers, slightly less than a mile, and then share information between them. Physicists use the term “entanglement” to refer to pairs of particles that are generated in such a way that they cannot be described independently. The scientists placed two diamonds on opposite sides of the Delft University campus, 1.3 kilometers apart.

Each diamond contained a tiny trap for single electrons, which have a magnetic property called a “spin.” Pulses of microwave and laser energy are then used to entangle and measure the “spin” of the electrons.

  The distance — with detectors set on opposite sides of the campus — ensured that information could not be exchanged by conventional means within the time it takes to do the measurement.

“I think this is a beautiful and ingenuous experiment and it will help to push the entire field forward,” said David Kaiser, a physicist at M.I.T., who was not involved in the study. However, Dr. Kaiser, who is with another group of physicists who are preparing to perform an even more ambitious experiment next year that will soon measure light captured at the far edges of the universe, also said he did not think every scintilla of doubt had been erased by the Dutch experiment.

The tests take place in a mind-bending and peculiar world. According to quantum mechanics, particles do not take on formal properties until they are measured or observed in some way. Until then, they can exist simultaneously in two or more places. Once measured, however, they snap into a more classical reality, existing in only one place.

Beyond the immediate result, physicists noted that the experiment represented an advance in the understanding of a Lilliputian world that was once largely the province of theory. Quantum mechanics has already had a huge impact on modern technology and industry. For example, it is the foundation for modern computers and lasers.

“What I do find interesting is that the experimenters are learning how to manipulate quantum systems, and do experiments that are far beyond what was possible when I was starting in physics,” said Leonard Susskind, a theoretical physicist at Stanford. “Things which were at best ‘thought experiments’ become possible, then routine. That is incredibly impressive.”

Indeed, the experiment is not merely a vindication for the exotic theory of quantum mechanics, it is a step toward a practical application known as a “quantum Internet.” Currently the security of the Internet and the electronic commerce infrastructure is fraying in the face of powerful computers that pose a challenge to encryption technologies based on the ability to factor large numbers and other related strategies.

Researchers like Dr. Hanson envision a quantum communications network formed from a chain of entangled particles girdling the entire globe. Such a network would make it possible to securely share encryption keys, and know of eavesdropping attempts with absolute certainty.

For some physicists, even though the new experiment claims to be “loophole free,” the matter is not yet completely closed.

“The experiment has closed two of the three major loopholes beautifully, but two out of three isn’t three,” Dr. Kaiser said. “I believe in my bones that quantum mechanics is the correct description of nature. But to make the strongest statement, frankly we’re not there.”

A potential weakness of the experiment, he suggested, is that an electronic system the researchers used to add randomness to their measurement may in fact be predetermined in some subtle way that is not easily detectable, meaning that the outcome might still be predetermined as Einstein believed.

To attempt to overcome this weakness and close what they believe is a final loophole, the National Science Foundation has funded a group of physicists led by Dr. Kaiser and Alan H. Guth, also at M.I.T., to attempt an experiment that will have a better chance of ensuring the complete independence of the measurement detectors by gathering light from distance objects on different sides of the galaxy next year, and then going a step further by capturing the light from objects known as quasars near the edge of the universe in 2017 and 2018.

Quantum Theory Experiment Said to Prove ‘Spooky’ Interactions (NY Times)

Think about three positions: A, B, and C.

A is the place where the two entangled particles come from.

B and C are the current locations of the particles.

There’s definitely no way to get the particles from location A to locations B and C faster than the speed of light.

There’s also no way to influence the state of either particle at locations B or C from location A at any speed.

That’s old news.

As far as I know, there’s still no way to control the state of the particle at B from location C or vice-versa.

While an event at position B can cause a change at position C, there’s no way to control or predict what that change is or will be, so no way to use the change to communicate any information.

But that’s just my own interpretation. You probably have real physicists among your readers, so I suggest you pose that question on the website and see how they respond.

Best,

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Meanwhile, on the subject of spooky:

‘The researchers demonstrated that they were able to suppress quantum tunneling merely by observing the atoms.’

<http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2015/10/zeno-effect-verified-atoms-wont-move-while-you-watch>

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Roland Dobbins

What’s going on with El Nino…

…and the real (okay, probable) effect on the weather. This is a good article; the writer had his head on his shoulders, logicked his way through, and gathered some very good statistics.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2015/10/14/godzilla-the-blob-son-of-blob-el-nino-reality-check/?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DSC_News_151022_Final&utm_content=&spMailingID=23815290&spUserID=MTE2MDc4MjYyNjg3S0&spJobID=662308129&spReportId=NjYyMzA4MTI5S0#5468

Basically what’s happening, insofar as I can tell, is that the strength of the El Nino is throwing off the circulations in the Pacific, resulting in The Blob and Son of Blob. I make no claims to expertise on this, but that’s what it looks like to me.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

Prepare for a wild winter.

In unexpected discovery, comet contains alcohol, sugar – Yahoo News India

Jerry:

It sounds like the ingredients to a good cocktail.

https://in.news.yahoo.com/unexpected-discovery-comet-contains-alcohol-182309427.html

James Crawford=

Unsurprising but possibly of interest:

www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/20/update-leader-of-effort-to-prosecute-skeptics-under-rico-paid-himself-his-wife-1-5-million-from-govt-climate-grants-for-part-time-work/

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.