| Thursday,
January 14, 2010 Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/fegel1.1.1.html
"The earth is now on the brink of entering another
Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within
the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our
knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve
thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end,
and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000
years.
"Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic
record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all
demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which
each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials,
each lasting about 12,000 years.
"Most of the long-term climate data collected from
various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three
astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles.
The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies
over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes
over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also
known as the earth’s "wobble," which gradually rotates the direction of
the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the
Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles,
each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the
earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm
interglacials."
Ice will suffice...
Charles Brumbelow
Perhaps. I have to say that
I'm nowhere near as confident that we know what's going on. The Milankovich
theory is no more useful for explaining the climate changes of the past few
hundred years than any other. that doesn't mean that it's not correct; it
does mean that a lot more is going on. There are many feedback loops --
warming produces water vapor which produces more "greenhouse" effect, but
also causes more clouds, more precipitation which at high altitudes and high
latitudes produces glaciers which change reflectivity -- those are merely
the loops I think of off the top of my head. The Milankovich cycle may well
cause changes in insolation. Whether that's the entire story of the Ice/Warm
cycle isn't clear to me.
Changes in albedo -- planetary
reflectivity -- obviously have an effect on the overall temperature of the
earth. The Moon, which is a pure black body without an atmosphere and with
no volcanic heat sources, is quite a bit colder than Earth. Atmospheres have
an effect. Earth was once a snowball, nearly entirely covered with ice. In
the last Ice Age the ice didn't get so far south (or north in the southern
hemisphere). Given the amount of water on the planet, and the black body
temperature of the Earth at our solar radius and what we think has been the
solar output, I believe the prediction using just those factors is for
Snowball Earth.
Snowball Earth is a far more
dismal prospect than Tropicana Earth.
I don't think we understand
the climate cycle, and I think it behooves us to learn more before we bet
our economic prosperity on carbon taxes. Cap and trade and carbon taxes will
greatly increase the disparity between the incomes of the rich and the poor,
and its effect on climate are at best small and more probably will be
negligible. Our public policy ought to be one of learning more about
climate, while developing the engineering techniques required to be sure
that Ice will not suffice.
================
The "Google Grab"
Happy New Year, Jerry.
Something you said in your latest column really made a
light bulb go on in my head. You said "It's a breathtaking goal, and some
would call it noble. The problem is that it ignores copyrights.". That
really does highlight the problem. Copyrights were invented for the good of
society, to encourage the creation of (initially) books. If copyrights get
in the way of a noble goal (such as preserving works that have been created)
that's good for society, then the way copyright is formulated today is a
problem. It's copyright that really needs to be fixed.
(For the record, my personal feeling is that copyright
would work much better today if it went back not regulating reproduction,
but focussed instead on publication and distribution. Making a copy is no
longer the good indication of "intent to publish or distribute" that it was
when reproduction was added as an exclusive right granted to copyright
holders).
Chris
That was in fact my point:
something needs to happen that protects creators and encourages the useful
arts and sciences, but which also rewards the public for extending that
protection. I have ideas on the subject and at some point I'll write on
that.
===========
Subj: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission:
Vice-Chairman Thomas tries cloud-sourcing
I don't think it made it into the news reports, but on
the first day of fcic.gov hearings, Vice-Chairman Thomas basically invited
the public watching the hearings to send him any questions the public wants
asked, and said he'd consolidate them and ask them, in writing and in the
Commission's name, of the witnesses appearing before the Commission, and
then publish their written responses.
I wonder whether he has the staff and infotech to
handle what he's asked for? Or is he just indulging in Populist Kabuki?
Are there open-source software and associated rituals
"on the shelf" to handle that sort of thing?
Should there be? (I say "yes".)
Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com
Of course Obama promised eight
times in the campaign that the health care debates would be open. In fact
the Republican Senators aren't permitted to be in the discussions.
==========
Navy for rent
Dr. P,
I thought you might find this interesting:
The next time you read a report on the Yemen Navy
disrupting a Somali pirate attack, it could just be that's there's a little
more to the story than meets the eye.
The Yemen military, it seems, is available for hire to
protect vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden. Its franchisee is U.K. based
Gulf of Aden Group Transits (GoAGT)...
GoAGT recommends its armed escort services for vessels
transiting below 14 knots, or with a low freeboard, or unaccustomed to the
Gulf of Aden, transporting hazardous cargo, or simply looking for safe and
professional armed protection...
GoAGT will supply the customer's vessel with a
dedicated escort by what it describes as a "heavily armored 37.5 meter Yemen
Navy Austal patrol boat" transiting 500 m from the escorted vessel
throughout the entire journey
http://www.marinelog.com/
DOCS/NEWSMMIX/2010jan00080.html
Being the irrepressible cynic that I am, I confess to
whimsically wondering what fun Gilbert and Sullivan could have made out of
the hired sailors communicating with the pirates in local language.
Regards, Bill Clardy
p.s. I hope Sable does well with whatever course you
decide on. We had to euthanize our dog last October when he irreversibly
slipped into severe renal failure. While Sable's problem is far less severe,
you do face the similar question of weighing fiscal pragmatics against our
sense of duty to faithful companions.
Thanks. I can hear the
refrains now. Sable is quite happy as things are, and while she favors one
leg she does not appear to be in any pain whatever. We climbed the hill
today and she was happily hunting gophers.
===========
The trees of Mars.
<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/
space/6979855/Nasa-photographs-
trees-on-Mars.html>
--- Roland Dobbins
============
INTEL Compiler and the FTC
Dear Jerry,
I suspect objecting to the FTC wrapping yet another
tentacle around the computer industry is in most cases probably a wise idea,
given that their previous efforts have more often than not done more harm
than good. But in this instance I'm not so sure.
Possibly due to the slightly arcane technicalities
involved there seems to be a misconception among many commenting on this
issue that the problem here is Intel's compilers not supporting features
specific to non-Intel processors. Intel would be (and is) entirely justified
in doing that; nobody reasonable expects them to spend money making AMD's
products look better. But that's not what's happening.
X86 processors have a standard mechanism usually
referred to as 'capability bits' that indicates what types of code the chip
can cope with. If the CPU can run SSE code safely, it will have an SSE
capability bit. Applications can check that and run the appropriate code.
The same goes for MMX, SSE2, SSE3, and various other extensions that improve
performance or functionality.
What the Intel compiler is doing is completely
ignoring this system. All it does is examine the Vendor ID of the chip and
if it isn't 'GenuineIntel' then the capability bits are never checked and it
uses the dumbest, slowest code possible. There are no compatibility problems
between Intel and AMD chips; remove the Vendor ID check (as some
enterprising hackers have done) and the 'optimal' code runs fine on AMD
chips. Intel knows this full well, but has consistently refused to remove
the vendor check. When compiling 64-bit binaries we get the positively
Kafka-esq situation of an Intel compiler generating code for an AMD-designed
instruction set (AMD64) that treats AMD processors as potentially
incompatible!
Imagine if other vendors adopted this attitude. If
Windows disabled the mouse control panel when you plug in a non-Microsoft
mouse, or if the many NVidia-sponsored games on the market locked into a
minimum-detail 'safe mode' upon detecting the presence of an ATI graphics
card. Artificial interoperability barriers like this help nobody.
I read that Intel has agreed to stop this madness as
part of their legal settlement with AMD. I suspect that may have something
to do with Intel's efforts to get into the graphics business on a serious
basis and the realization that will make them dependent on software designed
with AMD and NVidia hardware in mind. They wouldn't like their own tactics
used against them!
Regards,
GC
I understand that it might be
better business tactics to negotiate an agreement, and I am very much for
competition in the CPU business, but I do wonder why Intel needs to be
compliant with a rival's features, and what it would cost to keep their
compiler's code generator compliant with other companies' features. This may
well be due to my unfamiliarity with the subject.
==
Intel Compilers and AMD Chips
Hi Jerry
The situation is slightly more complex.
If I develop a commercial application, I need to know
that it will run on a reasonable cross-section of computers. Generally this
is no problem, as the AMD chips are highly compatible with the Intel chips.
If you optimise the code for Intel chips, it will run fine on an AMD chip.
Now the compiler will often generate multiple versions
of some subroutines, so that a high-end chips can take advantage of
optimisations while lower end chips can still run, even though they don't
have the optimisations. The compiler generates startup code that identifies
the processor and chooses the best version of the subroutines.
Now it seems that the Intel compiler detects an AMD
chip and always runs the slowest version, even though the AMD chip is
capable of running faster versions. It is easy to tell if the AMD chip is
compatible as modern chips can be queried to see if they support particular
optimisations.
It is further alleged (though I don't think proven)
that in some cases, the compiler builds in deliberate delays in the AMD
subroutines to slow it further.
Now Intel doesn't like AMD and I'm sure it is mutual.
However the big loser is the third party software developer who has built a
product and now finds his customers (with AMD machines) complaining how slow
his application runs.
That is the point where the regulator is needed.
Regards
Michael J Smith
I understand the problem, but
surely Intel isn't required to solve it for AMD?
=================
Subj: Climate Modeling: "It's Clouds' Illusions I
recall / I really don't know Clouds ... At all!"
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
2010/01/13/spencer-clouds-dominate
-co2-as-a-climate-driver-since-2000/
>>What we will find is evidence consistent with
natural cloud variations being the dominant source of climate variability
since 2000.<<
Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com
==========
Al Qaeda playbook,
Jerry
I think someone in Al Qaeda must have read this:
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1905665458
Eric Frank Russell's best. I once read that it's what
he wanted to do to the Japanese, since he was in Allied intelligence in WW2.
Dirac Angestun Gesept, indeed. Too bad they're doing
it to us.
Ed
============
Paul
Jerry,
In response to Paul's plan to put up satellites to
measure atmospheric temperature:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html
jim
==========
This country is doomed
Jerry,
"The park service decision came in response to a
request from two Massachusetts Indian tribes, who said the 130 proposed wind
turbines would thwart their spiritual ritual of greeting the sunrise, which
requires unobstructed views across the sound"
http://www.nytimes.com/
2010/01/05/science/earth/05wind.html
Here's a rendering of what this sacrilegious
monstrosity looks like from the shore.
I like electricity enough to put up with the
"eyesore".
Chuck
===========
'During the Cold War, Soviet officials declared that
they would use nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack. But
when Soviet archives were opened, it became clear that "there were
scenarios where they would have contemplated first use," said Charles
Ferguson, a former State Department official who now heads the Federation
of American Scientists.'
<http://www.latimes.com/news
/nation-and-world/la-na-obama-
nuclear4-2010jan04,0,2198537,full.story>
-- Roland Dobbins
============
: Muslim Science Fiction?
Jerry:
If climate change isn't controversial enough, we have
another scientific debate with "experts" ...
<http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/3876.htm>
January 4, 2010
Egyptian Medical Doctor Criticizes the Phenomenon of
Accepting Unscientific Islamic Beliefs, like the Notion that a Woman's
Pregnancy Can Last Up to Four Years
In an article on the liberal website Elaph, Dr.
Khaled Montasser, a liberal Egyptian physician, criticizes the phenomenon
of endorsing traditional ideas that have been disproven by science, such
as the Muslim belief that a woman can be pregnant for up to four years. He
points out that this notion is believed even by some Muslim doctors, and
is acknowledged in the laws of some Arab countries, including those that
are not theocracies. He calls on the Muslims not to accept outdated and
unscientific ideas just because they were proposed by important clerics,
stressing that contesting the opinions of religious scholars is not
tantamount to attacking or disparaging the religion itself.
From the Four Corners of the
Earth...
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