| Thursday,
April 24, 2008 "But I do feel up to
working on some essays, and I suppose I had better give the column a lick
and a promise if nothing more."
Aha, this is a job for Khaos in a lounge chair!!!!
Richard Hakala
"Age and treachery always overcome youth and skill"
Actually, that sounds like a great idea! I was able
to do a bit of work with Khaos while waiting for Dr. Wang Tuesday. For some
reason I haven't thought about working that way at home. I can't think why.
==========
environmentalism
Dr. Pournelle:
First:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGQ1Z
TlmNTFjOGIxOTYyNjdjODJmMDMwMmViODY5ODI=
It's nice to see National Review waking up to
something you've discussed for years.
Second:
I wonder what will happen in Great Britain if the
Scots remember Wallace and Robert the Bruce? I really wouldn't want to be
near someone instigating a riot (Niven's Laws) if the Scots heritage
awakens.
jomath
I tried for years to get someone in the Republican
leadership to understand that Hansen was a politician, not a scientist, and
the Global Warming model builders were not supported by those who gather the
data; and failing someone in the Republican leadership to understand this,
at least someone in the conservative movement leadership. I wasn't terribly
successful. Access to Energy (www.accesstoewnergy.com)
was the only publication that took the threat of "environmentalism"
seriously.
After all, who can be against helping the Earth?
But as Petr Beckmann, founder of Access to Energy, used to say, there is no
need for coercive laws requiring us to conserve diamonds and gold...
Actually, some conservation laws make sense; but
note what has come of environmentalism: the mechanisms of government are
used to make us add methanol to gasoline despite all the engineering
objections to the stuff; despite the fact that it takes about as much energy
to make the ethanol or methanol as your car gets from it; and the result is
lots of money for the producers (astonishment!) and silent famine in parts
of Asia; food riots in Mexico City, and I suppose a feeling of smug
accomplishment by those who require us to burn food. Welcome to the Day
After Earth Day.
As to Scottish Nationalism, we will see. My last
visit to Scotland showed one thing: as soon as you crossed the border, the
roads got narrower.
- Scots, wha hae wi'
Wallace bled,
- Scots, wham
Bruce has aften led,
- Welcome tae your gory bed,
- Or tae Victorie!
- 'Now's the day, and now's the hour:
- See the front o' battle lour,
- See approach
proud Edward's power -
- Chains and Slaverie!
- 'Wha will be a traitor knave?
- Wha will fill a coward's grave?
- Wha sae base as be a slave?
- Let him turn and flee!
- 'Wha, for Scotland's
king and
law,
- Freedom's sword will strongly draw,
- Freeman stand, or Freeman fa',
- Let him on wi' me!
- 'By Oppression's woes and pains!
- By your sons in servile chains!
- We will drain our dearest veins,
- But they shall be free!
- 'Lay the proud usurpers low!
- Tyrants fall in every foe!
- Liberty's in every blow! -
- Let us do or dee!'
==========
Cloud Computing. Available at Amazon.com Today,
Jerry
You used to say that silicon was cheaper than iron.
Now it's that electrons are cheaper than silicon. Amazon is offering, well,
computation and storage, really cheap:
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/16-05/mf_amazon
Who could resist?
Ed
========
The End of the End of History
Jerry
I think you will find the analysis in this long paper
to be quite familiar:
http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?
id=ee167382-bd16-4b13-beb7-08effe1a6844
Ed
It is an interesting essay, and I agree with the
conclusion; but I would take issue with the general strategy that Kagan
thinks necessary. His father is certainly the scholar to look to for lessons
on the Peloponnesian War, and his maxim that if you seek peace you must keep
it is a variant on the old Roman maxim that if you would have peace, be
prepared for war. On that, I think, we can all agree.
What we do know is that the global shift
toward liberal democracy coincided with the historical shift in the
balance of power toward those nations and peoples who favored the
liberal democratic idea, a shift that began with the triumph of the
democratic powers over fascism in World War II and that was followed by
a second triumph of the democracies over communism in the Cold War. The
liberal international order that emerged after these two victories
reflected the new overwhelming global balance in favor of liberal
forces. But those victories were not inevitable, and they need not be
lasting. Now the re-emergence of the great autocratic powers, along with
the reactionary forces of Islamic radicalism, has weakened that order,
and threatens to weaken it further in the years and decades to come. The
world's democracies need to begin thinking about how they can protect
their interests and advance their principles in a world in which these
are, once again, powerfully contested.
On that we can agree; what we must do, and whether
we should rely on our military or our technological capabilities is worth
discussion.
=========
Subject: Rowling and Copyright
Dear Jerry:
As I have said from the beginning, Copyright is always
about the money. The guy who wanted to do a Potter reference work is a
fanboy, but the basic rule of fan publishing is that you can't make any real
money from it, because you are per se, violating someone else's copyright.
This, too, will fail the smell test for the "fair use" and "commentary"
exceptions. When the judge in the case urged the parties to settle he was
doing what every judge wants to do in a Copyright case. Make it GO AWAY!
It's a bad law that badly need reform and, despite all the rhetoric to the
contrary, judges don't really want to "make" law, just interpret it. Since
tried cases are so rare, every decision makes law, and these guys are
desperately trying to avoid doing that since they fell, quite rightly, that
this is the job of the Congress.
Rowling has every right to control this kind of
derivative work. Fanboy is in the wrong, his protests and tears
notwithstanding, and the case should be settled. If he proceeds, he will be
the hook for attorney's fees, her as well as his, and damages at a level he
will never be able to pay. Rowling doesn't need the money, but she does need
the decision. She's had a platoon of very expensive lawyers on standby for
years defending her rights. She and she alone has the right to profit from
Harry Potter. Any other answer invites madness.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
==========
Lifetime of Civilizations
Jerry,
On the lifetime of civilizations:
Converse to the Dyson contention you cited in your
reply to Mr. Morgan:
Scenario 1: Stan Schmidt's 1994 Analog editorial that
suggests an upper limit to the lifetime of a civilization is the time it
takes for 1 disaffected or careless individual to develop the mechanisms
(including leverage as required) to result in the physical destruction of
his civilization (bio warfare? triggering the nuclear holocaust? forming
planet-swallowing black holes with high-energy-density scientific
experiments? method X?)
Scenario 2: Even avoiding a grandiose end to
civilization as in Scenario 1, one can also imagine scenarios based on the
contention that if civilization collapses again for any reason (a somewhat
less catastrophic version of most of the items in Scenario 1, or a Fallen
Angel type of scenario, for example), the ability to recover a technological
civilization capable of sustaining a return to space will have been
squandered through having used up most of the readily available material and
energy resources of the planet.
Scenario 3: Per capita energy requirements for living
in space are significantly higher than on earth (including of course the ~
50 megajoules per kilogram necessary to move the initial mass to LEO, which
is currently supplied at an energy efficiency on the order of 1%) and all
but a few diehards finally decide that it is just not worth the cost in
energy to move off of the planet when the same energy could provide
extremely comfortable lifestyles here, even without a disaster. (of course,
even at that 1% energy efficiency for launch, I use enough energy in a month
to move that kilogram into orbit -- and my electric bill for doing so is
currently under $300, though that might change if the ecofascists take
charge, in which event revert to Scenario 2).
The human race is not out of the woods until we have
multiple viable colonies off of the earth's surface, as Mr. Heinlein so
poetically wrote.
Jim
=========
Coldstream Guards Regimental Recruiting Video
If the Army of these United States had a true
regimental system (the Iron Law killed it years ago...) we might have this
sort of recruitment ad. It's a bit more interesting than "Army Strong", but
then it wasn't done by some Madison Avenue whiz kid.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=PPE3cwkb3c8
Kind of makes you wonder if Col. Falkenberg might not
have used something similar?
Petronius
=========
Subject: Tariffs
Dr. Pournelle,
Your proposal for a 10-15% tariff on all imports makes
good sense. For those with a historical bent, see the graph of tariff rates
on the value of ALL imports prior to 1950 and afterward.
Ron Mullane
http://pw1.netcom.com/~rdavis2/tariffs.html
Do understand, if all you want is increased
production and cheaper prices, simply getting rid of regulations and
restrictions like ADA and OSHA will probably do it better, but if you insist
on "decent" working conditions for your workers, you can't also compete with
countries that don't. The exception would be in skilled work, and for that
you need an effective education system. Ours is not good for teaching
skills, and No Child Left Behind makes it worse.
Tariff is the only way to preserve jobs in the US.
We thrived under protective tariff from Lincoln to Wilson...
A tariff plus leaving working condition regulations
to the states would be even better. Let the states compete for working
conditions vs. business friendly. But we had that and the Great Society
among other liberal interferences finished that.
==
Subject: Regulating Risk
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/
IBDArticles.aspx?id=293323242465620
Then there is a proposed Department of Transportation
rule that would force infants to occupy their own seats on commercial
flights, which would yield an expected savings of one life per two years —
but would produce a significant net increase in risk, as studies show that
parents choose to drive rather than purchase additional tickets.
Some of the worst regulatory excesses occur when the
government is exercising its "gatekeeper" role, in which it must grant
permission before a product can be marketed, as is the case for
pharmaceuticals and pesticides.
Regulators of these products are highly risk-averse,
often discounting or ignoring the costs of life-saving products that are
delayed or abandoned. As a result of pharmaceutical regulators constantly
raising the bar for approval, bringing a new drug to market now requires 12
to 15 years and costs more than $1 billion (in direct and indirect costs).
Max
All of which argues for a reasonable tariff and
leaving most of those regulations to the states. If a billion dollar trade
deficit costs 13.000 jobs -- according to Bush among others -- then what do
our staggering trade deficits cost us? And if those jobs were here and the
workers paying taxes---
=========
Nuclear Power in the UK
Probably of interest:
<http://www2.theiet.org/oncomms/sector/
magazine.cfm?issueID=267&articleID=76552
D53-EF75-39C1-C79C4CF1EBC4FD8F > <http://tinyurl.com/6f7enf>
-- Harry Erwin, PhD,
Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security,
University of Sunderland.
==========
Scottish nationalism, viewed from
England
As to Scottish Nationalism,
we will see. My last visit to Scotland showed one thing: as soon as you
crossed the border, the roads got narrower.
Well, anytime they want to give up England and go
home, they'll get no argument from me.
Seriously, they took us over with the Stuarts, most of
the 1745/Culloden thing was highland vs lowland with a little English and
German input, the victorious army at Culloden was mostly Scottish. Blair and
now Brown, both Scots. Most of the cabinet, Scots. Lots more public money
spent per head on Scots vs English. Any partly informed Americans with a
romantic view of Scotland's history should be aware that right now Scottish
politics is dominated by Socialist/Liberal thought, and relies on someone
else stumping up the cash. And they can have independence any time they
like, nobody is likely to fight them for it.
Even more seriously, the Union with England was what
allowed the Scots to have the immense influence they have had on the World.
Both countries have benefited from it, neither enslaves or exploits the
other (nowadays). Old rivalries remain, but they are not a reason to break
up a successful act.
Regards,
Adrian Camp
Agreed. Conservatives do seem intensely involved
with lost causes. Fortunately they usually have the good sense not to get
too involved. Singing the old songs is one thing, taking up a musket and
fighting another battle is quite another.
Actually Florence MacDonald, deported to the
Carolinas, was a Tory and helped raise a Loyalist company during the
Revolutionary War. Most of it was wiped out at Kings Mountain.
==========
The Ice Age Cometh...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html
"THE scariest photo I [Phil Chapman] have
seen on the internet is
www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of
the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep
space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.
"What is scary about the picture is that
there is only one tiny sunspot."
"The sunspot number follows a cycle of
somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum
was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon
after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
"It didn't happen. The first sunspot
appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot
appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot
appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.
"The reason this matters is that there is a
close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's
climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the
Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades
from 1790.
"Northern winters became ferocious: in
particular, the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from
Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots."
"The bleak truth is that, under normal
conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about
1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally
by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years.
"The interglacial we have enjoyed
throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000
years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur
quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it
can happen in 20 years.
"The next descent into an ice age is
inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand,
it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in
typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the
temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.
"By then, most of the advanced nations
would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the
world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining."
"All those urging action to curb global
warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we
should do if we are facing global cooling instead.
"It will be difficult for people to face
the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes
for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation
may be at stake."
Would the onset of an ice age mean Algore would have
to give back his Oscar and peace prize?
Charles Brumbelow
No it would mean that we'd all have to pretend
there was no ice. We have just heard that a 7% variation in solar output
won't have as much effect on climate as CO2. This doesn't make a lot of
sense, but the computer models have to be correct, don't they?
========
In today's mail you said:
"No it would mean that we'd all have to pretend
there was no ice. We have just heard that a 7% variation in solar output
won't have as much effect on climate as CO2. This doesn't make a lot of
sense, but the computer models have to be correct, don't they?"
In fairness, the figure quoted above on this page and
in the linked article was ".07%" Seven hundredths of a percent, not seven
percent. Factor of a hundred less. Always assuming the report got it right
in the first place.
Regards, and best wishes for your physical
improvement,
-- Cecil Rose
Which shows I am not thinking as well as I should.
We know that the Maunder Minimum corresponds with a
very cold period; and that there have been other cold times that correlate
with minimum sunspots. Solar output variation is the OBVIOUS first thing to
suspect when the Earth's temperature changes...
Whether it's enough I don't know but historical
evidence says it certainly is.
==========
Re: PS, Rice
Ron -
"We still have our Y2k "hoard""
Back in Y2K days just like today most folk had zero
pantry storage, and would start to go hungry if they could not buy at the
supermarket every other day. I always bought when I found a deal on
something we would eat anyway, and probably had at least a couple of months
food for our then family of 5.
When Y2K hit lots of folk spent many thousands of
dollars buying either packaged storage systems, or did it cheaper on their
own. Lots of folk caned stuff at Mormon canneries. We bought a bit,
including some freeze dried stuff (that we liked the taste of) but added
overall very little because we already stored so much everyday.
Almost all of what we bought for Y2K got eaten in the
normal course of things, with just a very little given away.
These days we are just 2 and the pantry is smaller,
but still there. We might live a month on our current pantry.
I hear the "food shortage" talk and do not plan to run
out and buy any big sacks of rice (only the big sacks of the most popular
types such as Basmati and Jasmine rice are being rationed from what I read.)
While we like and eat rice, it is not that big a part of our diet, and a 50
lb bag of rice would probably take us 10 years to go through.
Maybe I am crazy, but I plan to just keep on looking
for deals on stuff we eat anyway, and stocking that in the pantry. Things
are quite different from when we had 4 hungry teenage boys at home to keep
fed :>) These days we almost never buy lots of things that we ran through
like crazy back in the day. That is why I don't think any "food storage
plan" package will ever work for us (unless we had money to throw away).
We could try to eat better, however.
Ray
Sounds like you used to read my column when I was
and editor/columnist for SURVIVE Magazine. You have of course hit on the
proper way to stockpile food without looking like a hoarder and without
going broke.
In the survivalist days we used to have a slogan:
"Some will collect food, some will collect gold, some will collect guns and
ammunition. And someone will end up with gold, food, and guns."
Of course we were expecting the entire collapse of
civilization with nuclear war as the probable cause, and that's not likely
now; indeed, we won't fall as far as we did during the Great Depression, and
even that is unlikely. Things will not collapse to the point that police and
National Guard will look to their own survival and families. At least that
doesn't look likely just now. The Great Rice Shortage is very local in a
couple of Costco stores heavily patronized by Philippine immigrants and
fairly wealthy ones at that.
Buying extra staples that you will eat anyway is a
good hedge against inflation and doesn't make you look like a probable
source in the event that the transport system comes apart and there are food
shortages in the stores.
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