Chaos Manor View, Monday, November 16, 2015
“The analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.”
Barrack Hussein Obama
Paris terror attacks: Mother of suspected suicide bomber Brahim Abdeslam says he ‘may have been stressed’
Family of Ibrahim Abdeslam says he may have blown himself up because of ‘stress’
President Obama Calls Rejection of Syrian Refugees a “Betrayal of Our Values”
The US isn’t changing its plans to let in 10,000 Syrian refugees.
Jan. 27, 2014
Obama Likens ISIS to ‘J.V. Team’
President Obama described the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, as the Sunni militant group was widely known at the time, as a junior varsity basketball team, playing down the strategic threat posed by the ISIS, compared with Al Qaeda.
“The analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a J.V. team puts on Lakers uniforms, that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant,” Mr. Obama told David Remnick of The New Yorker.
That same month, ISIS seized Fallujah, a city in Anbar Province, Iraq, and parts of Ramadi, the province’s capital.
May 28, 2014
Defining the Extremist Threat
In a speech at West Point, Mr. Obama said, “For the foreseeable future, the most direct threat to America at home and abroad remains terrorism.” But he sought to distance himself from Bush-era doctrine, saying, “A strategy that involves invading every country that harbors terrorist networks is naïve and unsustainable.”
As the president defended his decision not to intervene militarily in Syria, the Islamic State was planning its takeover of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. Less than two weeks later, the group’s fighters did just that.
Aug. 7, 2014
Action in Iraq
Mr. Obama authorized airstrikes against Islamic State militants advancing on the Iraqi Kurdish city of Erbil as well as threatening to wipe out thousands of Yazidis, a religious minority group, stranded on Mount Sinjar. A day later he vowed that the United States had no intention of “being the Iraqi air force.” Still, it was American airstrikes and humanitarian aid drops, along with Kurdish fighters, that ended the siege, in an operation that also involved the presence of a small number of American forces to assess the situation.
“We’re not going to let them create some caliphate through Syria and Iraq,” the president said in an interview with Thomas L. Friedman, a columnist for The New York Times, a day after he authorized the strikes. “But we can only do that if we know that we have got partners on the ground who are capable of filling the void.”
When you said you have not underestimated ISIS’s abilities. This is an organization you once described as a jayvee team that has now evolved into a force that has now occupied territory in Iraq and Syria and has now been able to use that safe haven to launch attacks on other parts of the world. How is that not underestimating their capabilities? And how is that contained, quite frankly? A lot of Americans has this frustration that they see that the United States has the greatest military in the world. It has the backing of nearly every other country in the world to take on ISIS. I guess the question is – why can’t we take out these bastards?
CNN reporter November 16, 2015 asks President Obama in press conference.
President Obama is said to have been annoyed by the question.
I have said for about a year now that we are at war with the Caliphate. Initially I said we could eliminate the Islamic State with an American division and the A-10 Thunderbolts. Later I said it would require two divisions and some air superiority forces. It will now require three divisions, all the SA-10’s, and considerable air superiority assets to protect the A-10’s from SAM and other defenses. The reason the requirement goes up is the growth of Daesh after each successful terrorist operation: the Caliphate gets floods of jihadi recruits, and their existing troops get a great morale boost. This raises the requirement for defeating them without high casualties.
Sending “just enough” troops to accomplish a mission is always a last resort; in the vast majority of situations, it is cheaper to send far more than enough. The cost of transportation will be higher, of course, but the casualties will be fewer, the combat shorter, the pursuit and elimination of the opposition more complete, and the success of the operation more complete. Trying to operate with “just enough” troops is sometimes necessary, but it is only preferable politically if at all. It is seldom a profitable military option unless you need the unsent troops as a reserve for something else of importance.
It doesn’t cost that much to send more than you think you will need. You have to pay the soldiers anyway; their presence limits the cost of the operation. Often the enemy will not face overwhelming force, while they will fight if they think they can win or inflict significant casualties.
Britain sent Gordon to Khartoum to save money; the result was having to send a much larger force under Kitchener. So it goes.
Daesh claims to be the legitimate ruler of the world; the proof of that is that it rules, and enforces true Islamic law in the territories that it rules. If it has no territory to rule with true Islamic law, it is self-evident that it is not the true legitimate ruler of the world. This may not be obvious, but it is true and has been demonstrated time and again. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/23/islamic-state-works-to-establish-functioning-legit/?page=all https://news.vice.com/article/islamic-state-takes-a-stab-at-legitimacy-with-alleged-identification-cards-as-forces-lose-ground-in-iraq
The President is correct when he says that we need allies in the area capable of filling the void created when we conquer Middle East territories. This requires diplomatic skills that might be beyond Mr. Kerry’s abilities, but they aren’t beyond American abilities.
The principles are simple enough: we do not seek to impose a government other than that whatever government emerges is not an enemy of the United States, and is tolerant. We also need what amounts to a Foreign Legion: an armed force that is permanently deployed overseas. Its job is to enforce the terms: not an enemy of the UDS, and tolerant to domestic minorities. But that’s another discussion.
Is there much point in analyzing the folly of admitting migrants, refugees, immigrants at this time? We have no way at all of vetting applicants. We would do better to conquer an area from Daesh and giving it to the immigrants, possibly hiring some as mercenaries to assist them; always with the provision that the newly formed dependencies need not be friends to the United States but they must not be enemies; and that they must be tolerant of various tribal and religious minorities. Oil is fairly cheap, but there’s enough there to finance this, and enough work in extracting it to support the refugees.
Daesh (ISIS) Strike in US?
You may have read about the car German police caught that had AK-47s and grenades with a GPS set for Paris. Did you read about the grenades and plastic explosives stolen from a French military base back in July?
I haven’t been able to research this to see if I could match the types of grenades and explosives with those used in the Paris attack. I expect someone else will do that before I get to it.
However, the recent raid on a military base in Massachusetts did not escape my attention:
As of yet, I have no details of what was taken but I would not be surprised if Daesh (ISIS) is behind this. The FBI recently admitted to have over 900 active investigations related to the terrorist group inside the United States.
I looked into the building that was raided, the Worcester Armory. The 1st Battalion, 181st Infantry Regiment is stationed there; this tells me the thieves could have access to claymore antipersonnel mines, fragmentation grenades, small arms, light machine guns (M249), sidearms, anti-tank weapons, massive casualty producing weapons e.g MK-19, M240B, etc.
We have enough threat inflation and fear mongering in this country; I don’t want to add to that but this situation should concern us.
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Joshua Jordan, KSC
What ISIS Really Wants
I don’t know if you’ve seen this already:
“People want to absolve Islam,” he said. “It’s this ‘Islam is a religion of peace’ mantra. As if there is such a thing as ‘Islam’! It’s what Muslims do, and how they interpret their texts.” Those texts are shared by all Sunni Muslims, not just the Islamic State. “And these guys have just as much legitimacy as anyone else.”
It will come as no surprise, at any rate.
Dear Dr. Pournelle,
I assume that you’ve already heard of the tragic occurrence in Paris. The first question on my mind, though, was what exactly the French intended to do about it.
The answer is, conduct airstrikes against ISIS and ally with the Russians in a joint effort to destroy ISIS — and, of course, prop up Assad.
It is a good plan, probably the best plan they could reasonably come up with. The only bad thing about it is that we aren’t part of it — we’re being muscled out and steadily surrendering the Middle East to the Russian sphere of influence. If you can really call it “muscling out” when the Russians are simply stepping into the vacuum we left.
ISIS is at war with the US as well as France. We could end ISIS at any time, for less cost than waiting will face us with; whether we want to be involved with territorial disputers in Mesopotamia, if one of the participants is at war with us, we have no real choice. Of course if they are the junior varsity dressed up as Lakers they might not warrant our full attention, but they have repeatedly indicated that they are more than that, and are growing, not contained. Containment requires that you contain the enemy and that time is not of the essence. I do not believe that is the case here. We must be ready to take advantage of the election. The Caliphate is not going away; it must be destroyed. It has declared war on the American people.
Yale Student Shrieks At Prof For Denying Her ‘Safe Space’
The Rise of the College Crybullies
Last nite I had a yen to hear a requiem mass. After hieing myself to St. Francis de Sales church in Sherman Oaks, I heard the Cherubini Requiem in C Minor, an edifying spiritual work indeed. Parts of it brought a tear to my eye. The St. Francis de Sales Choir and the Wagner Ensemble performed the work. The Dies Irae was especially powerful. The Ensemble sounded three times its size, and just as professional. The Choir? Marvelously full and resonant. The underrated Cherubini was Beethoven’s favorite composer. Thanks to Roberta Pournelle, who sings alto in the Choir, for the complimentary ticket.
Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.