Mail 782 Monday, July 15, 2013

— Flash! Bill Allen Seriously Ill

Jerry,

In case Bill Allen has not notified you, he has stage 3 cancer in the stomach.

Prognosis is hopeful.

Damn! You and the "Big Zap" and now Bill’s trials and tribulations.

All of the great influences in my life have had or is having a lot of life happening to them

All the Best, from your student one step removed.

Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

Bill Allen was one of my best students when I taught at Pepperdine. He went on to the Sorbonne where he got his Ph.D, then became Provost of a major university, Chairman on the Civil Rights Commission, and Superintendent of Public Schools.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_B._Allen   We have sort of lost touch in the past few years which is a pity.  I had not heard this before but a lot of my mail gets filtered, alas.  Than you for telling me.

Not Guilty <https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=14529>

I thought you did not do breaking news.

My take: DOJ pressured the Florida prosecutors into bring Zimmerman to trial. After their original investigation, the prosecutors marked any case against Zimmerman as a loser. I kinda followed the case by RSS feed. It was hard not to. I was gobsmacked by the prosecution’s witnesses. I would not believe them if they told me the sun shined in the Sahara.

My opinion is that the prosecutors knew the case was a loser, and they played it that way. I saw video clips of the defense attorney’s cross examinations. I saw at least two occasions when — had I been the prosecuting attorney — I would have objected. The prosecutor sat silent. My conclusion is that they meant to lose and played their hand that way. The late inclusion of the manslaughter count was just a raise on a hand of Jack-high nothing when they KNEW the defense was holding a full house, Aces over Queens.

I think the boys in Florida did not like Eric Holder’s Chicago Way. I think they deliberately set up the result so that Holder cannot pursue Zimmerman successfully.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

I do not usually do breaking news, but I kept silence for the entire trial and I had to say something. The prosecutors did not look to me like people who wanted to lose. They looked like people who thought they could not win, which is not quite the same thing. But I do hope they used up all the options so that the Federal government has no choice but to allow the law to prevail.

Manslaughter charge in Zimmerman case

Regarding Mr. Brewer’s comment:

"#3 What really troubles me most about the trial is that the prosecution was allowed to add a new charge after the defense had rested. That in itself appears to me to be something other than a fair trial. It is very scary. You get the court, ready to defend yourself and the government can decide new charges at any time with no opportunity to prepare a defense. Wrong!"

There are some big issues raised by this case, such as the wisdom of Florida’s approach to self-defense, the impact of race on the criminal justice system, the application of justice in high profile cases, and you’ve noted many.

However, Mr. Brewer’s concern here is misplaced I think. Generally, either side can add charges at the end of the case if the new charge is necessarily proved by proof of the greater charge; that is, if the new charge is a "lesser included offense." Thus, for example, proof of intentional conduct necessarily includes proof of reckless conduct, which necessarily includes proof of negligent conduct. This is considered fair, because both sides are on notice that this can occur.

(Aside: the defense, but generally NOT the prosecution, can add lesser NON-included offenses if they think it can help their case. The prosecution is limited to what the defense was on notice to going in.)

In a strong case, the defense often requests such "lessers" as a way to try to mitigate the damage to their client. In a case that is not as strong, or that seems less strong after all the evidence is done, the prosecution might ask for a lesser included offense to give the jury an option between conviction of the original charge and outright acquittal, if the evidence justifies the lesser charge.

This isn’t always or even usually a sign of desperation, at least in a routine case. A prosecutor’s view of a case can change in good faith based on things you couldn’t have known going in: a witness who looked good on paper but wavered on the stand, the sudden unavailability of an important witness, evidence offered by the defense (which is usually not disclosed in advance), and so on. Also, reasonable minds can differ about facts and witness credibility, and this "lesser included" rule takes this into account.

I’ve been prosecuting cases quite a few years now. I’m hesitant to specifically defend or attack the actions of prosecutors elsewhere; you never know how it looked before the fact. I just didn’t think it fair to pile on in this particular area, which is non-controversial.

Thank you,

Christian J. Schulte

Dr. Pournelle

Randall Garrett and the Arthur Clarke Prediction about love and marriage <https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=14487>

"When you have the facts, argue the facts. When you have the law, argue the law. When you have

neither, shout." –Lawyers’ adage

If you substitute ‘reason’ for ‘the law’ in the adage above, your recent experience defending Randall Garrett’s unseemly propositions at SF cons on an SFWA forum provides evidence for the validity of the adage. (By ‘defending’ I mean you took the position that RG’s behavior did not rise to the level of actionable sexual harassment. I do not mean that you approved RG’s behavior. It is clear in your post that you did not; in the only event in which you exercised some control, you persuaded RG not to engage in such behavior.)

Once the shouting began, reason and facts ceased to matter. The field was carried by passion and stridency.

I don’t know what to tell you. I am confident that anything I might have to say would be a just a reminder, not something new to you. I am tempted to say I expected more wisdom and restraint from you at your age, but I expected more wisdom and restraint from me, too, and have been soundly and repeatedly disappointed in that expectation.

What I learned from your experience is that you and I are fools who bumble through life, offending the bejeezus out of total strangers. One might think that we would have learned some tact along the way. Or else learned to retreat, regroup, and fight a worthwhile battle that we can win. One would be disappointed.

I swear on the eyes of my daughter, I would not bother to involve my self and my diminishing reputation in a dispute over an inconsequential definition of sexual harassment. It does not matter a whit what these twits say. It only matters what a court says. And the court has not spoken on these facts, so forget it. (Were I paid to argue this, I would argue RG’s behavior did not take place in a work environment and does not fall within the purview of the law, and I would move for a dismissal; but I ain’t, so I won’t; that’s logic.)

The little weight that I have I prefer to throw into the scales on the side of developing commercial access to space. I see that AdAstra wants to put a garbage robot in space — a vehicle to collect launch vehicle debris and detritus in LEO and dispose of it <http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/821885354/animating-vasimr-the-future-of-spaceflight> . They have other ideas, too. SpaceX flew Grasshopper — the ghost of DCX — up and down again <http://www.space.com/21881-spacex-grasshopper-rocket-highest-test-flight.html> . There is cause to be cautiously optimistic about humankind’s chances of getting off this rock.

Be of good cheer. Hush ye men of strife and hear the angels sing.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

I think I left it out of this year’s Christmas message.  Oh hush the noise, ye men of strife, and hear the angels sing…  Thanks

Dr. Pournelle

The discussion of ‘sexual harassment’ jumped to another site where The Passive Voice <http://www.thepassivevoice.com/> picked it up. In brief, the condemnation of bad behavior won applause on the original site, but the comment writers at The Passive Voice refused to join the chorus and said such comments were vulgar but did not rise to the level of harassment.

I confess that I am confused. The notion that unwanted sexual advances in a public setting constitute sexual harassment is alien to me. I thought that sexual harassment applied only to work environments. Perhaps I am mistaken, but I am not persuaded that I am wrong and that those who want universal coverage for their imagined complaints are right.

Anyway, thought you might feel better to know that others share your opinion.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Actually you would be astonished at how many people tell me that I am not alone in my views, but are afraid to make their names be known for fear of the consequences.

Re: harassment

For what it’s worth (and I’ve heard the Garrett story before, not from conventions but from biographical material in his books/collections), my understanding is that one variation of sexual harassment involves repeated unwanted advances. (The other and more serious version is a person with authority demanding sexual favors in exchange for favorable treatment.) I agree that while Garrett was boorish and offensive, it would be hard to characterize his behavior as harassment under the stated terms. (If he approached the same woman at multiple conventions with the comment and the same result, the response would of course be different.) As to the 10% figure, I have from other sources heard that in a random sampling of women, about 10% would accept such an offer if other conditions are favorable, so I can’t dispute Garrett’s statistics.

Conversely, there are women who are offended by the posting of photographs of scantily clad women in the work place and call it harassment. There was one case when I was a graduate student where one young researcher responded to such criticism by soliciting autographed photographs of porn stars applauding the laboratory where I worked and detracting a rival laboratory and posting them in his cubical. Under this definition, where sexually suggestive material is posted in the work place in spite of criticism but no person was solicited and no exchange of sex for favors was offered, one might argue that Garrett’s repeated behavior falls under the terms of harassment. But again, this wasn’t happening in a work place, it was happening in a social gathering.

I suspect that the complainers on SFWA are the relatively few people who would take offense at the photograph.

One doesn’t have to endorse such behavior to claim it is not harassment. So in general I agree with you.

Still, sign this one just

J.

Hookup culture

In many respects the "hookup culture" is just a continuation of trends since at least the 1960s, when effective birth control became available and women started gaining economic independence from men. (Arthur Clarke didn’t focus on the latter, but I think it’s an important causative factor.)

A much more recent trend that has accelerated things, specifically in the university setting, is the skewed gender ratio at most college campuses. Women now comprise close to 60% of all college students in the US, with similar numbers in much of Western Europe. Why this gap exists is a subject of debate, but the result is demographically profound: Three women for every two men. It’s not hard to imagine that in a male-poor environment, men will be less likely to commit to relationships, and casual sex ("friends with benefits" etc.) become more likely.

Jack B

The Randall Garret Story.

Dr. Pournelle,

First off, it was nice to meet you at last year’s Libertycon.

On the Randall Garret thing, I note something about the people saying "the very offer was harassment" or the like. That must mean one of two things. Either 1) Any sex outside of a committed relationship is thus the result of harassment (because somebody has to make the offer) or 2) they must mean that it’s harassment for a man to make the offer to a woman, which would be sexist in the extreme.

I consider the first unrealistic. (And I say that as someone who is in a committed, monogamous, relationship with my lovely wife.) I don’t think there’s ever been a society anywhere where the only people having sex were those in committed relationships. It might be a goal to strive for (or not–I can see arguments for quite a few positions on that and am very much a "live and let live" person on such issues) but expecting things to actually turn out that way? Not hardly.

The second is sexist.

Now, it’s possible that one could say making the offer so baldly is "harassment", that one needs to wrap it in circumlocutions and game playing, but that’s a different argument from making the offer at all.

So are they mired in sexism or in fantasy?

Best,

David L. Burkhead

I think they are mired in not thinking things through for themselves.  There’s a lot of that going around.

SFWA

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/07/09/alas-sfwa/

The opinion piece linked above may be of interest.

I’ve been a reader of SF for nigh on 50 years; for much of that time I looked on the SFWA as Mount Olympus. Alas, no longer. The gross disrespect for the elders (not just Resnick & Malzberg either!) of SF by these puppies is beyond disgusting.

Anyway, thanks for all you do.

Jeff Elkins

p.s. I’m rereading "Too Many Magicians," Very entertaining, and probably unpublishable in today’s toxic environment.

Jeff Elkins

The link leads to an essay by Sarah Hoyt, an old and valued friend.  I don’t share her view that SFWA has become useless, and it could use some of her clear thinking. There is far too much groupthink happening; but in fct it is mostly from a small number of people. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEqyIo1bOYk

CARBON DIOXIDE SOURCE

Jerry

I received what follows from my namesake – he shares my first and last names.

Anyway, it’s . . . amusing.

Ed

Ian Rutherford Plimer is an Australian geologist, professor emeritus of earth sciences at the University of Melbourne, professor of mining geology at the University of Adelaide, and the director of multiple mineral exploration and mining companies. He has published 130 scientific papers, six books and edited the Encyclopedia of Geology.

Born

12 February 1946 (age 67)

Residence

Australia <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia>

Nationality

Australian

Fields

Earth Science <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Science> , Geology <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology> , Mining Engineering <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_Engineering>

Institutions

University of New England <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_New_England_%28Australia%29> ,University of Newcastle <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Newcastle_%28Australia%29> ,University of Melbourne <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Melbourne> ,University of Adelaide <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Adelaide>

Alma mater <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alma_mater>

University of New South Wales <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_New_South_Wales> ,Macquarie University <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_University>

Thesis <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thesis>

The pipe deposits of tungsten-molybdenum-bismuth in eastern Australia <http://www.worldcat.org/title/pipe-deposits-of-tungsten-molybdenum-bismuth-in-eastern-australia/oclc/221677073> (1976)

Notable awards

Eureka Prize <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eureka_Prize> (1995, 2002),Centenary Medal <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centenary_Medal> (2003), Clarke Medal <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke_Medal> (2004)

Where Does the Carbon Dioxide Really Come From?

Professor Ian Plimer could not have said it better!

If you’ve read his book you will agree, this is a good summary.

PLIMER: "Okay, here’s the bombshell. The volcanic eruption in Iceland . Since its first spewing of volcanic ash has, in just FOUR DAYS, NEGATED EVERY SINGLE EFFORT you have made in the past five years to control CO2 emissions on our planet – all of you.

Of course, you know about this evil carbon dioxide that we are trying to suppress – it’s that vital chemical compound that every plant requires to live and grow and to synthesize into oxygen for us humans and all animal life. I know….it’s very disheartening to realize that all of the carbon emission savings you have accomplished while suffering the inconvenience and expense of driving Prius hybrids, buying fabric grocery bags, sitting up till midnight to finish your kids "The Green Revolution" science project, throwing out all of your non-green cleaning supplies, using only two squares of toilet paper, putting a brick in your toilet tank reservoir, selling your SUV and speedboat, vacationing at home instead of abroad, nearly getting hit every day on your bicycle, replacing all of your 50 cent light bulbs with $10.00 light bulbs…..well, all of those things you have done have all gone down the tubes in just four days.

The volcanic ash emitted into the Earth’s atmosphere in just four days – yes, FOUR DAYS – by that volcano in Iceland has totally erased every single effort you have made to reduce the evil beast, carbon. And there are around 200 active volcanoes on the planet spewing out this crud at any one time – EVERY DAY.

I don’t really want to rain on your parade too much, but I should mention that when the volcano Mt Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth.

Yes, folks, Mt Pinatubo was active for over One year – think about it.

Of course, I shouldn’t spoil this ‘touchy-feely tree-hugging’ moment and mention the effect of solar and cosmic activity and the well-recognized 800-year global heating and cooling cycle, which keeps happening despite our completely insignificant efforts to affect climate change.

And I do wish I had a silver lining to this volcanic ash cloud, but the fact of the matter is that the bush fire season across the western USA and Australia this year alone will negate your efforts to reduce carbon in our world for the next two to three years. And it happens every year.

Just remember that your government just tried to impose a whopping carbon tax on you, on the basis of the bogus ‘human-caused’ climate-change scenario.

Hey, isn’t it interesting how they don’t mention ‘Global Warming’

Anymore, but just ‘Climate Change’ – you know why?

It’s because the planet has COOLED by 0.7 degrees in the past century and these global warming bull artists got caught with their pants down.

And, just keep in mind that you might yet have an Emissions Trading Scheme – that whopping new tax – imposed on you that will achieve absolutely nothing except make you poorer.

It won’t stop any volcanoes from erupting, that’s for sure.

But, hey, relax……give the world a hug and have a nice day!"

I was thrown out of an academic conference on climate modeling for insisting that they add in CO2 injections from volcanism, and also other volcanic effects lest their model be silly.  But they weren’t ready to do that.  This was long ago when I still did OR work.

Jerry

Climate SHOCKER: Rising CO2 is turning the world’s deserts GREEN:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/07/11/co2_greens_the_deserts/

The Register put in the caps.

Ed

Nature on climate models

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/11/quote-of-the-week-nature-on-the-failure-of-climate-models/

Jim

Our models are improving or at least could be; computers are more powerful and can handle many more cells and many more data inputs.  But they are still far from predictive and lack convincing explanations of some events and connections.  Brute force models are all we have though; theory generally makes them worse. And science that does not stay close to the data generally goes far wrong.

If this is indeed true….we need to create some serious heartache for those who approved it.

http://www.infowars.com/russian-forces-to-provide-security-at-us-events/

Tracy

I have seen nothing else about this, so I have no way of knowing if it be true, but it doesn‘t really astonish me.

US Army war college on youtube

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Provided for your viewing pleasure. I believe your correspondants will have it interesting indeed.

http://www.youtube.com/user/USArmyWarCollege?feature=watch

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Subj: Fwd: How Bad Is It In Egypt & Syria,…..??

How bad is it in Egypt and Syria….?? Not meant to be a lead in to a joke.

There is absolutely nothing that can be done to turn around the devastating situation in both countries. Egypt requires 20 BILLION U.S. dollars just to survive and feed its people…. Syria has completely devastated its scarce water resources by depleting its underground water table and cannot feed its people….

Max

The Economic Blunders Behind the Arab Revolutions

by David P. Goldman

The Wall Street Journal

July 12, 2013

http://www.meforum.org/3554/arab-revolutions-economics

Sometimes economies can’t be fixed after decades of statist misdirection, and the people simply get up and go. Since the debt crisis of the 1980s, 10 million poor Mexicans­victims of a post-revolutionary policy that kept rural Mexicans trapped on government-owned collective farms­have migrated to the United States. Today, Egyptians and Syrians face economic problems much worse than Mexico’s, but there is nowhere for them to go. Half a century of socialist mismanagement has left the two Arab states unable to meet the basic needs of their people, with economies so damaged that they may be past the point of recovery in our lifetimes.

This is the crucial background to understanding the state failure in Egypt and civil war in Syria. It may not be within America’s power to reverse their free falls; the best scenario for the U.S. is to manage the chaos as best it can.

Of Egypt’s 90 million people, 70% live on the land. Yet the country produces barely half of Egyptians’ total caloric consumption. The poorer half of the population survives on subsidized food imports that stretch a budget deficit close to a sixth of the country’s GDP, about double the ratio in Greece. With the global rise in food prices, Egypt’s trade deficit careened out of control to $25 billion in 2010, up from $10 billion in 2006, well before the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.

In Syria, the government’s incompetent water management­exacerbated by drought beginning in 2006­ruined millions of farmers before the May 2011 rebellion. The collapse of Syrian agriculture didn’t create the country’s ethnic and religious fault lines, but it did leave millions landless, many of them available and ready to fight.

Egyptians are ill-prepared for the modern world economy. Forty-five percent are illiterate. Nearly all married Egyptian women suffer genital mutilation. One-third of marriages are between cousins, a hallmark of tribal society. Only half of the 51 million Egyptians between the ages of 15 and 64 are counted in the government’s measure of the labor force. If Egypt counted its people the way the U.S. does, its unemployment rate would be well over 40% instead of the official 13% rate. Nearly one-third of college-age Egyptians register for university but only half graduate, and few who do are qualified for employment in the 21st century.

That is the tragic outcome of 60 years of economic policies designed for political control rather than productivity. We have seen similar breakdowns, for example in Latin America during the 1980s, but with a critical difference. The Latin debtor countries all exported food. Egypt is a banana republic without the bananas.

The world market pulled the rug out from under Egypt’s mismanaged economy when world food prices soared beginning in 2007 in response to Asian demand for feed grain. Meantime, the price of cotton­on which Mr. Mubarak had bet the store­declined. Now Egypt’s food situation is critical: The country reportedly has two months’ supply of imported wheat on hand when it should have more than six months’ worth. For months, Egypt’s poor have had little to eat except bread, in a country where 40% of adults already are physically stunted by poor diet, according to the World Food Organization. When the military forced President Mohammed Morsi out of office last week, bread was starting to get scarce.

Since 1988, Bashar Assad’s regime misdirected Syria’s scarce water resources toward wheat and cotton irrigation in pursuit of socialist self-sufficiency. It didn’t pan out­and when drought hit seven years ago, the country began to run out of water. Illegal wells have depleted the underground water table. Three million Syrian farmers (out of a total 20 million population) were pauperized, and hundreds of thousands left their farms for tent camps on the outskirts of Syrian cities.

Assad’s belated attempt to reverse course triggered the current political crisis, the economist Paul Rivlin wrote in a March 2011 report for Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center: "By 2007, 12.3 percent of the population lived in extreme poverty and the poverty rate had reached 33 percent. Since then, poverty rates have risen still further. In early 2008, fuel subsidies were abolished and, as a result, the price of diesel fuel tripled overnight. Consequently, during the year the price of basic foodstuffs rose sharply and was further exacerbated by the drought. In 2009, the global financial crisis reduced the volume of remittances coming into Syria."

The regime cut tariffs on food imports in February 2011 in a last-minute bid to mitigate the crisis, but the move misfired as the local market hoarded food in response to the government’s perceived desperation, sending prices soaring just before Syria’s Sunnis rebelled.

Economic crisis set the stage for political collapse in Egypt and Syria, even if it wasn’t the actual spur. The two Arab states are, of course, not the only nations ruined by socialist mismanagement. But unlike Russia and Eastern Europe, they have no pool of skilled labor or natural resources to fall back on. In this context, Western concerns about the niceties of democratic procedure seem misguided.

The best outcome for Egypt in the short run is subsidies from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to tide it over. Egypt’s annual financing gap is almost $20 billion, and it is flat broke. The price of such aid is continuing to sideline the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Gulf monarchies consider a threat to their legitimacy. The Gulf states have pledged $12 billion in response to Morsi’s overthrow, averting a near-term economic disaster. That’s probably the best among a set of bad alternatives.

Syria may not be salvageable as a political entity, and the West should consider a Yugoslavia-style partition plan to stop ethnic and religious slaughter. Even the best remedies, though, may come too late to keep the region from deteriorating into a prolonged period of chaos.

Mr. Goldman, president of Macrostrategy LLC, is a fellow at the Middle East Forum and the London Center for Policy Research.

= =

Spengler > Dismiss the Egyptian People and Elect a New One,

 

Jerry

Although Spengler says “Dismiss the Egyptian People and Elect a New One” his piece is more interesting than that:

http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2013/07/04/dismiss-the-egyptian-people-and-elect-a-new-one/

It starts, “Perhaps, the Communist writer Bertolt Brecht offered after East German workers rose against their Moscow-backed masters in 1953, the government should dismiss the people and elect a new one. Don’t laugh. That is what Mexico did after the debt crisis of the early 1980s: it dismissed the fifth of its population that moved to the United States. China has dismissed its rural population and recreated a new urban population, shifting by 2020 the equivalent of twice the American population from countryside to city. Egypt’s problem is that it has no practical way of acting on Brecht’s advice. The Egyptian people are dying; the question is whether they will die slower or faster. I prefer slower, so I am pleased by this turn of events. Starvation is the unstated subject of yesterday’s military coup. For the past several months the bottom half of Egypt’s population has had little to eat except government-subsidized bread, and now the bread supply is threatened by a shortage of imported wheat.” And on from there.

Kind of cold, eh? His takes on how Mexico handled its debt crisis and the magnitude of intra-China migration are . . . interesting, and worth thinking about.

Later, he adds this: “Nearly half of Egyptians are illiterate. 70% of them live on the land yet the country imports half its food. Its only cash-earning industry, namely tourism, is in ruins. Sixty years of military dictatorship has left it with college graduates unfit for the world market and a few t-shirt factories turning Asian polyester into cut-rate exports. It cannot feed itself and it cannot earn enough to feed itself, as I have explained in a series of recent articles. Someone has to subsidize them or a lot of them will starve. Unlike Mexico, Egypt can’t ship its rural poor to industrial nations in the north.”

I love this bon mot from further along: “The Saudi monarchy hates the [Muslim] Brotherhood the way Captain Hook hated the crocodile.” And this: “No should mourn the Brotherhood, a totalitarian organization with a Nazi past and an extreme anti-Semitic ideology. The notion that this band of Jew-hating jihadi thugs might become the vehicle for a transition to a functioning Muslim democracy was perhaps the stupidest notion to circulate in Washington in living memory.” Then he winds it up in exemplary fashion.

Well worth reading the entire piece.

Ed

Stratfor ratifies Spengler on Egypt:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/egypt-persistent-issues-undermine-stability

— and adds its own concerns.

Ed

Equality

Jerry

FW: Subj: Sometimes even I am at a loss for words..

This is just wrong on so many levels, where would a person even begin? It appears that "equal opportunity" is now gone; what is desired, and will be manufactured, is "equal outcome".

http://tinyurl.com/o28hjbv

Kurt Vonnegut Jr wasn’t at a loss for words…he was just optimistic by 78 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Bergeron

http://www.tnellen.com/cybereng/harrison.html

Those not familiar with Harrison Bergeron should be, and those who haven’t read it in a while can treat themselves. It shows that Vonnegut was more than just an inhabitant of Louise’s.

IVF baby born using revolutionary genetic-screening process, buffy willow

Jerry

They finally beginning to catch up with Robert Heinlein.

In Beyond This Horizon, he posited pre-conception genetic screening, with parents selecting potential germ cells (and hence, embryos) based not only on freedom from disease, but possession of desirable qualities. Well, now we have this – an IVF baby born using a genetic-screening process:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jul/07/ivf-baby-born-genetic-screening

Robert publish BTH in 1940. I’d say he was way ahead of his time.

Ed

Gray’s Elegy

I took my kids to England when they were teens. We were driving to Heathrow the day before we were to return home and I saw a sign for "Stoke Poges." I turned off the highway and there was Gray’s churchyard and the church. It was all as in the poem. One daughter refused to get out of the car (She recently voted for Obama) but the others followed me into the church and the church yard. The village is close to Heathrow and I wonder how many realize it. It should be an easy side trip of an hour or two if only people realized it.

Mike K

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Regarding your recent comment, https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=14512 ‘a disturbing trend’, may I suggest this apposite article:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/07/the_fall_of_the_humanities.html

I believe that the author of this article has pointed out the origins of the progressive degradation of the humanities in U.S. universities, and the scenario of what is now being played out in secondary education.

Cheers,

Bernard Brandt

Thais – Newman Levy

Dr Pournelle,

Thanks for linking to Thais.

Levy also did a brilliant verse parody of ‘Carmen’,beginning with:

In Spain where the courtly Castilian hidalgo strums lightly each night his romantic guitar…

It practically begs to be sung to "Out in the West Texas town of El Paso".

I ran across several of Levy’s poems in a verse anthology as a teenager. I’ve never heard any of them sung, though I’m told college kids Sanford them in the ’50’s.

I looked him up some years back – he was an assistant DA IN New York City.

Joseph

I never heard the El Paso song, so I wouldn’t know. There is a definite tune that the Thais ballad is sung to, in keeping with the meter of the poem

Way down in Alexandria, in wicked Alexandria.
Where nights were full of revelry and and life was but a game.
There lived, so the report is, an adventuress and courtesan,
The pride of Alexandria, and Thais was her name.

Nearby in peace and piety, avoiding all society,
There lived a group of holy men who’d build a refuge there,
And in the desert’s solitude avoiding earthly folly to
devote their lives to holy work, to fasting and to prayer.

Now of this group of holy men is one whom I shall solely mention’
Known as Athanael he was famous near and far,
At fasting bouts or prayer with him no other could compare with him.
At ground and lofty praying he could do the course in par.

One night while sleeping heavily from fighting with the devil (he
Had gone to be quite early while the sun was shining still,
He had a vision Freudian and thought he was annoyed he
analyzed it in the well known style of Doctors Jung and Brill.

He dreamed of Alexandria, of wicked Alexandria,
A group of men was cheering in a manner rather rude,
And Athanael glancing there saw Thais who was dancing there.
He saw her do the shimmy in what artists call “The Nude”.

He said this dream fantastical disturbs my life monastical,
Some long repressed desire I fear has reached my monkish cell.
I blushed up to the hat o’ me to view that gal’s anatomy,
I’ll go down to Alexandria and save her soul from Hell.

So pausing not to wonder where he’d put his winter underwear,
He quickly packed his evening clothes, a toothbrush and a vest.
To guard against exposure he threw in some woolen hosiery,
And bidding all the boys Goodbye, he set off on his quest.

Though previously warned and fortified the monk was deeply mortified
To find on his arrival wild debauchery in sway.
While some lay in a stupor sent by booze of more that two percent,
The others were behaving in a most immoral way.

To the lady he said “Pardon me, this here job is hard on me,
But I got to put you wise to what I come down here to say.
What’s all this sousing getting’ you? Cut out this pie eyed retinue.
Let’s hit the trail together kid and save your soul from Hell.

Though taken in astonishment by this bold and frank admonishment’
She coyly answered “Say, you said a mouthful Bo!
This burg’s a frost I’m tellin’ you, the kind of hooch they’re sellin’ you
Ain’t like the stuff we used to get, let’s hit the trail and go!”

Sop away from Alexandria, from wicked Alexandria.
They trudged across the burning sands beneath the blazing sun,
And Thais who was sweltering, found refuge in the sheltering
Walls of a convent and the habit of a nun.

But now the monk is terrified to find his fears are verified,
His holy vows of chastity have cracked beneath the strain.
Like one who has a jag on he cries out in grief and agony,
”I’d sell my soul to see her do the shimmy once again!”

Alas his pleadings clamorous, though passionate and amorous,
Have come too late. The courtesan has danced her final dance.
The monk says “That’s  joke on me, for that there gal to croak on me,
I should have got a piece of that what time I had the chance".”

ScienceCasts: The Zero Gravity Coffee Cup

Jerry

The Zero Gravity Coffee Cup:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZYsOG60dKQ

It’s a great video. Watching the liquids in microgravity is fun!

Ed

SUBJ: Ham Sandwich Nation: Due Process When Everything Is a Crime

http://www.columbialawreview.org/ham-sandwich-nation_reynolds/

Opening paragraph:

"Prosecutorial discretion poses an increasing threat to justice. The threat has in fact grown more severe to the point of becoming a due process issue. Two recent events have brought more attention to this problem. One involves the decision not to charge NBC anchor David Gregory with violating gun laws. In Washington D.C., brandishing a thirty-round magazine is illegal and can result in a yearlong sentence.

Nonetheless, the prosecutor refused to charge Gregory despite stating that the on-air violation was clear.1 The other event involves the government’s rather enthusiastic efforts to prosecute Reddit founder Aaron Swartz for downloading academic journal articles from a closed database. Authorities prosecuted Swartz so vigorously that he committed suicide in the face of a potential fifty-year sentence."

A problem as old as Cato. Of course Shakespeare grasped its essence centuries ago and had the gift of brevity besides. To wit:

"The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers."

– Henry The Sixth, Part 2 Act 4, scene 2, 71–78

At our annual Shakespeare Festival here in Oregon, that line now reliably draws a round of applause.

But I digress . . .

Cordially,

John

ULTRASONIC BOLLOCK BLASTERS help Hawkmoth battle The Bat

 

Jerry

I hope you are enjoying your midsummer’s holiday. I found the flowing, and I knew it was of the greatest scientific interest. So I’ll let The Register give it to you straight.

ULTRASONIC BOLLOCK BLASTERS help Hawkmoth battle The Bat:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/07/05/ultrasonic_cock_blasters_help_hawkmoth_battle_the_bat/

Some things are just too important to ignore.

Ed

Subject: DC-X 20th, New Mexico August 16-18?

 

Jerry,

Bill Gaubatz roped me into helping with organizing bits of the DC-X 20th Anniversary celebration/conference – Friday August 16th out at the NM Spaceport for politician speeches and a DC-X Team award ceremony, then Saturday and Sunday August 17-18 in Alamogordo for the conference on how DC-X has been, and should be, followed up.

It’s not my panel to run (though I’m on it) but I’ve noticed you’re listed for the "Behind the Hardware Story" panel on Saturday morning, but I’ve seen nothing indicating you’ll actually be there. So far it’s me, Rick Tumlinson, and Tim Kyger, with you and Jim Muncy listed as invited but not confirmed. I can speak to the CACNSP aspects if needed, but I was pretty junior and you can tell that story far better. (Plus, you may help keep me from strangling Rick Tumlinson for reasons I won’t go into for now.)

Any chance you’ll be able to get out to New Mexico next month? I can help with local transportation if needed, meet you at the El Paso Airport and drive you around to the various venues, then get you back to your plane after, if that helps.

Sunday of the conference will be "Reviving X-Planes For Space Access"

workshop sessions; Bill Gaubatz is serious about having something real come out of this. Here’s what he wrote me RE "newspace" participants in this conference (but it occurs to me you might have a thought or two to contribute also):

> Their participation is a major thrust of the conference to develop recommendations for several SSRT, X-Plane type programs to address key technical and operational issues facing the reusable spaceplane developments. In one sense, the Saturday sessions are a "warm-up" for the Sunday planning sessions. It will start to surface these issues and get the community comfortable about discussing them.

>

> These teams will [then] be invited by Dennis to participate in the AIAA RLV Program Committee planning sessions to come up with recommendations for X-Plane programs that can be taken forward for implementation by DARP/AF/NASA/NRL(if they wish to get involved).

I was planning on skipping the Friday ceremonial stuff out at the Spaceport, but they’ve pressed me to be there; I might suspect some flavor of attaboy in the works. It looks like a bit of a PITA – show up early in Truth Or Consequences for buses out to the spaceport, then at their mercy all day – but I’ll probably show out of politeness. If you want to go to that, I’d suggest flying in to El Paso the evening of the 15th, if not, then the evening of the 16th.

As for your latest View on arguing with politically-correct grievance-farmer fuggheads, well, you have my sympathy, but as someone said, it’s like wrestling with a pig: you both get covered with mud, the difference being the pig enjoys it…

best

Henry

I would love to come but travel is a problem for me as you will recall from the last time I came to a DC/X affair, and I doubt I have anything original to say. I’m sure you’ll give me a good account of it. Thanks

Dr. Pournelle,

It’s official, we’re now a card carrying banana republic.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/11/justice/zimmerman-trial/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Defense wrecks the prosecution’s case? Just change the charges after the defense rests so they can’t defend against the legal standards of the new charges. Works great in tinpot dictatorships, now it works in Florida.

Rule of law? Psh. We used to have that around here, gave it up. Now there’s no hiding that its all about power, and this judge wants more of it. Trayvon could have been Obama’s kid, so the judge going to do ANYTHING to ensure a conviction because she wants what Obama can give her. She’s a judge who wants to please her masters and move on up the power ladder, no question about it. There’s no question that even if she knows full well that any conviction would be thrown out on appeal due to her allowing these changes after the defense rests, she will still do anything to get that conviction.

Even the retired police chief who was fired for resisting the political interference into the case can’t keep quiet about this. The influence from outside the legal system is enormous in this case, and with the president himself declaring the outcome months before the trial ever began, we have an ever more clear picture of the gang of thugs running the country through intimidation and bullying tactics. We know exactly what President Obama meant, when he complained that the pesky constitution was his greatest barrier to making changes in the US. We’re seeing the results with the IRS assault on the first amendment and now this judge turning her court into a circus to please her masters. It makes the President’s attempted intimidation of the Arizona governor a few years ago make so much more sense. It’s how he does EVERYTHING.