Deflategate; Migration and Invasion; Coming Civil War in Europe

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, September 08, 2015


I keep hearing about the NFL quarterback who, to satisfy baying hounds of sports writers, is to be suspended or whatever they call it, from the first four season games because of numerous stories about his deflating, or allowing others to deflate, or possibly knowing others had deflated, or maybe knowing others were going to deflate, or were thinking about deflating, the footballs he was going to throw when his team was on the offensive during the Superbowl. Now a court says that the NFL Commissioner, who has arbitrary power, doesn’t really have arbitrary power, and there are rules of arbitration, and you have to tell people in advance if they are to suspend them. Or something. It’s all told in the deflategate story on Wikipedia and elsewhere if you really want the details.

The problem is that it doesn’t make sense. If deflated footballs were used during the Superbowl, the first move by the NFL should be to change the rules that allow the offensive team to supply its own footballs. That’s the NFL’s job. While they are at it, they can fire the referee for incompetence: surely the rules require that the referee inspect the ball before it is put in place for the next play? In basketball the ball has to be returned to the officials before the play begins each time the action is stopped; how can it not be the same for football, where the ball is much more subject to abuse?

So when the NFL fires the officials who presided at the Superbowl for incompetence – they let one, but only one, team play with deflated footballs – and fires the employees who wrote the rules not requiring the officials rather than the offensive team to provide the balls in play, then the Commissioner might consider penalizing the key player of the winning team. This isn’t about fairness, it’s about competence: they penalize the most competent man they can find to hide their own inabilities.

It might be pleaded that the referee can’t tell if the football has been deflated. That’s absurd. The ball is subjected to impacts and abuses on every play. Of course it will be deflated with use. How seriously I do not know; probably not enough to notice most times, which probably means that a small amount of deflation, too small to notice on casual inspection, won’t make any noticeable difference in play; requiring a metered inspection and reflation each quarter would be sufficient; possibly at half time would be enough to assure fairness, and in any event making both teams use the same ball seems reasonable; why should the offense be allowed to fool with the balls before playing with them? (If actually they can do so; it seems so unreasonable that I have trouble believing that an intelligent commissioner would allow it, although Wikipedia says that it is so; possibly the NFL should find a rational commissioner?)

If the NFL provided the footballs, and the same ones were used by both sides, the story would have never developed. It would be trivial to make it go away. I expect that won’t be done.


Of course I am still hoping that someone at Microsoft will go sane and restore the easy access to the autocorrect dictionary in Word 2008 to the Word you get with Office 365.  Hope springs eternal.


Migrant Wave Inspires Others to Try to Reach Europe A1

Images of migrants pouring into Europe are inspiring thousands more, from Iraq to Nigeria, to rush out on their own risky journeys, posing a burgeoning problem for policy makers focused mainly on Syrian refugees.

What a surprise! A successful invasion is followed by successive waves of occupiers! And note that no one is invading – or migrating to – wealthy Arab oil kingdoms. Suleiman only wanted Vienna in 1529; this year the Moslem invasion goes into the heart of Europe.

And they are being paid to come in!

And we are told that you cannot cut welfare benefits. It’s inhuman. Better to borrow the money; we can become indebted to the Chinese government. The National Debt:

Quantifying the National Debt

* As of April 3, 2015, the official debt of the United States government is $18.2 trillion ($18,152,112,019,695).[1] This amounts to:

  • $56,649 for every person living in the U.S.[2]
  • $147,304 for every household in the U.S.[3]
  • 103% of the U.S. gross domestic product.[4]
  • 540% of annual federal revenues.[5]

In other words, we directly owe a year’s work to the government to pay off the Debt; now for some that may be working for themselves – you work to get your money back with some interest – but most of us do not own any part of that national debt. My grandchildren have some of it, thanks to my wife’s practice of giving government bonds for Christmas and birthdays; I’d hate to see that defaulted. And then there is the underfunded Social Security and its empty Trust Fund (all loaned to the general government). We might get past this: it’s only 5% of everyone’s income for 20 years – but in twenty years we will owe $20 Trillion.

And that assumes that we are not invaded by another 10 million illegal migrants between now and 2030.


European Civil War 2017

    This came to my attention today. Apparently he started it last year and hasn’t updated it since November. I hope he gets back to it before his story is overtaken by events.



As Rush Limbaugh points out, the country club Republican leadership has a way to reject the Iran Deal.  They can keep the sanctions, because Obama did not meet the requirements listed in the egregious Corker Bill.  Not that they will do it.  Iran will have the bomb.  Live with it.



Israel second strike potential

Dr. Pournelle,
Israel _does have_ naval-based second strike capabilities (five “Dolphin”-class submarines operational and one more on the way. So it is 96 long-range cruise missiles).
Best regards,
Alex Krol

If you consider water launched pilotless aircraft a sufficient deterrent

Jerry Pournelle

Well, since it is widely assumed that each of these cruise missiles is equipped with 200 kiloton nuclear warhead..

And don’t forget about our ICBMs as well – I presume that missile silos in Soreq valley area are properly hardened.

( It may be not obvious from my e-mail address, but yes, I’m from Israel)


    Alex Krol

I presume Israel could build a 400 megaton dirty bomb and mount it at the border with Gaza, but I do not think it will be much use. The size of warhead is less important than the accuracy of delivery if you are fighting a war. If you are city busting accuracy is not so important. Assurance that your cruise missile will get over Iraq and make its way to Tehran is important; if Tehran is ringed with missiles that intercept at tens of miles distance, deterrence suffers.

Iran plans to sign contract for Russian S-300 missiles next week



Russian S-300 anti-missile rocket system move along a central street during a rehearsal for a military parade in Moscow May 4, 2009.

Reuters/Alexander Natruskin

Iran will sign a contract with Russia next week to buy four S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, the Iranian defense minister said on Tuesday, bringing Tehran closer to acquiring an advanced air defense capability.

Russian state arms producer Almaz-Antey in June said it would supply Iran with a modernized version of the S-300, among the world’s most capable air defense systems, once a commercial agreement was reached.

“The text of the contract is ready and our friends will go to Russia next week to sign the contract,” Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

Russia says it canceled a contract to deliver S-300s to Iran in 2010 under pressure from the West. But President Vladimir Putin lifted that self-imposed ban in April following an interim nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

Israel already likely has a second-strike capability via ‘pocket SSGNs’.

On 8 Sep 2015, at 3:19, Roland Dobbins wrote:

> They’re a bit more than Snarks, sir – smaller, more maneuverable, much

> lower RCS, etc.

Of course, this likely explains Iran’s recent investments in Russian AA and SAM systems . . .


Roland Dobbins


“Reporting rural unemployment is just too dangerous politically.”



Roland Dobbins

Indeed: it is hard to justify the notion that the Recession is ending; I can make a case that we are still in a second Depression.


Intel Federal and power consumption

Intel Federal got started to build lower power, more efficient processors for NSA and later Dept. of Energy. NSA is build massive data centers across the country. They are huge power hogs. Hence the need for more efficient processors to handle their specific work loads. Same for DOE.

So, Apple investing in solar is along the same lines.




Who has the balls?

You get a mention in the comments… (sort oldest first).

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellance;  Avoider of Yard Work


11 Reasons Terry Pratchett Is A Literary Genius

Charles Brumbelow




Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.




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