The Education dilemma; Feeding The Blob; More on LENR; Storage, Power; and new computers; ISIS; and much more.

Chaos Manor View, Saturday, October 10, 2015

10/10/1910 Date of the founding of the Republic of China; usually referred to as “Ten-Ten”

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I have been making progress on fiction, and have had less time for this place; trying to catch up

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There Will Be War Volume 10 is filling faster than expected. There are still a few fiction slots open, and we are looking for serious previously published non-fiction on future war; previous publication in a military journal preferred but not a requirement. Can be any length but under 5,000 words preferred. Payment on acceptance of a flat $200 advance against pro rata share of 25% of cover price royalties. We purchase non-exclusive anthology rights only; original works not excluded but no extra payment for first serial rights. Like the previous works in the There Will Be War series, this is a reprint anthology.  The introductions to the works will be original.  Previous volumes have sold well. submission@therewillbewar.net Volume will probably be published (eBook) in December; hardbound volume next year.

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Thousands of LAUSD teachers’ jobs would be at risk with charter expansion plan

http://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-charter-teachers-20151008-story.html

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If a proposal for a massive expansion of charter schools in Los Angeles moves forward, the casualties probably would include thousands of teachers who currently work in the city’s traditional public schools.

As new charters open, regular schools would face declining enrollment — and would need fewer teachers.

Under the $490-million plan being spearheaded by the Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation, 260 new charters would be opened in the city in eight years. The goal is to more than double the number of students attending these schools, which are independently run and mostly nonunion.

See the most-read stories this hour >>

The Great Public Schools Now proposal makes no mention of recruiting instructors from the ranks of L.A. Unified — even though the foundation acknowledged this week that the charter growth would require about 5,000 instructors.

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Better L.A. Unified schools would be best weapon against charter push

The plan talks about hiring from an expanded Teach For America and other groups that work with young, inexperienced instructors.

If the plan is carried out, “Los Angeles will have the strongest set of teacher and leader development programs of any city in the state of California,” according to the proposal.

The Broad Foundation said this week that teachers are key to the success of the proposal.

“We are in the process of listening to educators and community members to determine how best to support the dramatic growth of high-quality public schools in Los Angeles,” spokeswoman Swati Pandey said. “We know that without great teachers, there can be no great public schools. We’re eager to engage and support teachers as part of this work.”

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Test scores complicate the debate over expanding L.A. charter schools

The fate of teachers is becoming a major political issue in the debate over charter expansion, with L.A.’s teachers union at the forefront of the opposition.

“The charters are specifically looking for educators who have not had the experience of being in a union, which means that, by and large, they’re looking for teachers who may find it more challenging to raise their voice about curriculum or school conditions,” said Alex Caputo-Pearl, president of United Teachers Los Angeles.

Union leaders said they believe the charter expansion also is designed to dilute its political strength by reducing the number of dues-paying members. Teachers unions and their allies have squared off with Broad and his allies in recent and costly school board elections. Additionally, the union does not support the types of changes and accountability measures favored by Broad and others.

The number of teachers in L.A. Unified has shrunk to about 25,600 over the last six years from about 32,300. About half that decrease stems from the growth of charters, according to the district. Charters enroll more than 100,000 students, about 16% of the total in the nation’s second-largest school system.

Charters typically employ younger, less-experienced teachers who remain in the classroom for a shorter period of time, according to research from UC Berkeley and a 2015 analysis from the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass.

The Broad proposal, which would set aside $43.1 million for a “teacher pipeline,” refers to Teach For America as the “strongest human capital partner” for charters in Los Angeles. That group recruits recent college graduates and provides training that consists of six weeks before they start teaching — more in some cases — combined with ongoing support and course work.

The plan also looks to other fast-track programs, the New Teacher Project and the Relay Graduate School of Education, as avenues for hires. The New Teacher Project recruits those who want to change careers as well as recent grads; Relay is an emerging program developed in conjunction with charter leaders. It’s based in New York City, with regional campuses in five states, not yet including California.

Younger teachers offer a workforce that charters consider more flexible and one that is willing to work at a pace that may be unsustainable over the long term, some experts said.

“I completely understand why charters go for those kids — they are great, energetic young adults who want to make a difference, who are willing to work 60-hour weeks,” said Stephanie Medrano Farland, whose company, Collaborative Solutions for Charter Authorizers, helps school districts oversee and assist charter schools. “There are no limits because they have no union contracts. That also means they burn out.”

The California Charter Schools Assn. points to the success and popularity of charters as evidence that their instructors are serving students well. Los Angeles charters, on average, tend to perform higher on state standardized tests than traditional schools.

“Great teachers change students’ lives. Charter school teachers do that every day and the evidence is in their students’ progress,” said Jason Mandell, a spokesman for the charter group. “Teachers are the heroes of the charter school movement.”

And supporters applaud the idea of expanding the talent pool, especially given a looming teacher shortage in California as many instructors reach retirement age and the number of applicants to teacher-education programs has dropped.

“On one hand, teachers unions claim we need to replace thousands of teachers over the next decade,” said Jim Blew, president of the Sacramento-based advocacy group StudentsFirst, which supports charters as well as vouchers to allow students from low-income families to attend private schools. “On the other, they say there’s no room for teachers from organizations with proven, documented records of creating quality teachers…. L.A. needs more great teachers, and everyone should welcome them regardless of who recruited them to the city.”

The Times’ new education initiative to inform parents, educators and students across California >>

The Broad proposal, which the foundation called a “preliminary discussion draft,” specifies a need for 2,413 teachers. But a spokeswoman clarified this week that about twice that number would be needed to staff all the new charters.

Even in choosing among young teachers, charters have distinct hiring preferences. Many rely on nontraditional sources, said Kate Walsh, president of National Council on Teacher Quality, a Washington-based advocacy and research firm.

The issue is partly philosophical, Walsh said. University-based programs focus extensively on the history and theory of learning, whereas charters want more practical training for their recruits, such as how to keep a classroom quiet enough for students to learn effectively, Walsh said.

Some experts insist that there’s value in having a range of experience and ages among teachers in a school, to reach students in different ways. Some also stress the value of a faculty with less turnover from year to year.

At KIPP LA, a well-regarded charter group with relatively strong test scores, 69% of last year’s teachers returned to the classroom this year, according to the group. In L.A. Unified, 94% of teachers returned, according to the district. Half of those who left were retirees. Among new teachers, 92% returned.

“If you’re tapping teachers who have very little preparation and you have lots of them in schools, without veterans to support or mentor them, the turnover rates are typically high,” said Ken Futernick, professor emeritus at Cal State Sacramento, who has studied the role of teacher quality in school reform. “Teachers learn to collaborate in teams over time. And the constant churning of teachers coming and going makes it difficult to create a successful school environment.”

(The Broad Foundation has given money to the California Community Foundation and the United Way of Greater Los Angeles to support Education Matters, a new Times digital initiative devoted to more in-depth reporting on schools.)

As noted previously, large grants to existing unionized schools produce no observable benefits to the pupils, but simply vanish into the blob.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/zuckerbergs-100-million-lesson-1444087064

‘What happened with the $100 million that Newark’s schools got from Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg?” asks a recent headline. “Not much” is the short answer. In her recently released book, “The Prize: Who’s in Charge of America’s Schools?” journalist Dale Russakoff attempts to answer the question more fully.

“The goal of improving education in Newark,” she told the Hechinger Report, “is not a hopeless one. But viewing it as something that can be imposed from the top down as opposed from the bottom up, or at least in combination, was really a very central flaw.”

The Facebook founder negotiated his gift with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and then-Mayor Cory Booker in 2010, and it flowed into Newark’s public-school system shortly thereafter. The bulk of the funds supported consultants and the salaries and pensions of teachers and administrators, so the donation only reinforced the bureaucratic and political ills that have long plagued public education in the Garden State.

Mr. Zuckerberg is not the first private donor to fail at reforming public education by working with government—and he won’t be the last. Such efforts date at least to the 1960’s, with the Ford Foundation’s ill-fated campaign to decentralize New York City’s public schools by giving community boards the power to fire and hire teachers and principals.

The teachers unions opposed the effort, as anyone could have foreseen. Union leaders called a citywide strike that paralyzed the system and forced Mayor John Lindsay to call the whole thing off. It was an early sign that two great liberal causes—reform and unionization—could not be reconciled. But many foundations and individual donors haven’t learned the lesson.

Note the sign carried by the marching teacher:

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You may translate that as you will; my translation is “Give us that money, don’t worry about the pupils.” Of course that is not said; but it is the effect.

The truth is that you cannot give every child a world class university prep education. The choice is to give none of them a world class university prep education, or select those who can profit from it and give such an education to them, while giving those not selected something less – which could still be substantial. See The California Sixth Grade Reader http://www.amazon.com/California-Sixth-Grade-Reader-Pournelle-ebook/dp/B00LZ7PB7E ; some examples are given in a previous Chaos Manor View http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/Sixthgradesample.html . It is possible to give a reasonable education at rather low cost. In my case, in Tennessee in the 1930’s, Capleville School had 4 teachers for 8 grades. There were two grades to a room, and about 25 students per grade. We all learned to read, to sit quietly while the other class had their turn, and do reasonably well at arithmetic.

The Catholic school system has escaped some of the horrors of the blob, but it is succumbing to it. For a good picture of how it used to work (and a very good read) see The Crazyladies of Pearl Street http://www.amazon.com/The-Crazyladies-Pearl-Street-Novel/dp/1400080371. It is by my late friend Rod Whittaker, who wrote as Trevanian; I forget which name he used for this book. It is about growing up in the Depression, but it describes the Catholic schools Rod went to in the 30’s.

My point is that what man has done man can aspire to; we once had decent schools, and for a lot less money than we spend now. Entitlement has become the ruling principle, and Entitlement For Teachers rules over any possible entitlement for students, although of course the demands are made “for the children”. Any attempt to point out that some students don’t learn as well as others usually results in charges of racism and demands for more money. Zuckerberg tried doing it that way: feed The Blob. The result was almost indistinguishable from nothing.

So long as teachers are unionized, Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy www.jerrypournelle.com/ironlaw.htm will see to it that The Blob does not change, and sending money to the schools will not result in better student performance.

Feeding The Blob results in a bigger and fatter Blob, and quite possibly harms the students. It certainly does them no good.

My wife comments that all the teachers come from the same institutions and receive the same certifications by the same process; you are hoping to change the way they teach, but they do not know other ways.  The ones who learn stay; but there will be turnover, as those who cannot adapt seek other employment.

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More on LENR theory from Dr. DeChiaro

Hello Jerry,

The previous link was just a ‘state of play’ presentation.

This is Dr. DeChiaro’s commentary on LENR theory:

http://www.e-catworld.com/2015/10/06/louis-dechario-of-us-naval-sea-systems-command-navsea-on-replicating-pons-and-fleischmann/

I don’t know the ‘chain of custody’ of the piece.

It looks to be quotes from Dr. DeChiaro, but I didn’t see any quote marks.

I am obviously not qualified to comment on the ‘scientificalness’ of the content.

Bob Ludwick

I have no more data, except to say that the Office of Naval Research continues to fund Pons and Fleischmann in hopes that they will discover the mechanism generating the excess energy in their experiments. I am told by usually reliable sources that there is some, and no one knows why. That brings hope that some low energy Nuclear Process is happening, and we can harness it. We have long known that we could build. By brute force, a hot fusion plant that would produce more energy than it takes to sustain it, but with existing technology it would be a stunt and cost far more than the value of the energy it produces. One of the costs would be operational and thus continuous. No one I know thinks we’d learn much from building it. Doc Bussard believed we could use fusion plants to recharge spent fission fuel, and had considerable success in his work, but since his death not much has come of it.

I have faith that we will come up with ways to produce low cost energy, and with sufficient energy all other problems such as pollution and water shortages become, if not trivial, at least more easily solved; but I do not know what path will lead us there. I make no doubt that before the end of this Century we will have new energy sources that do not involve fossil fuels.

bubbles

I got an email advertising Discover: 5TB Hard Drive $149 and commented Wow! To my advisors. Most said good deal, but it elicited some interesting comments.

Eric noted that we had not long ago built an NAS Raid with 4 4 TB drives (it is now one of the primary backup systems for Chaos Manor, and said:

At the time the drives for the NAS were ordered, 4 TB was the sweet spot for price/capacity, especially for models specced for NAS use.

    There are much, much higher capacity drives out there now but when you look toward the bleeding edge some special considerations come in regarding what applications the drives are suited for. This column discusses it briefly:

http://www.zdnet.com/article/hgsts-new-10tb-drive-not-for-everyone/

    Eventually there will almost certainly be drives of such capacity suited for mainstream use but right now the capacity is so far ahead of demand in the consumer sector that there isn’t much motive to advance on that front. The area where drive makers are concerned about competing is performance as SSDs become big enough at a low enough price to be the entire internal storage system for most PCs. If it suddenly became fashionable to have a massive library of 4K video on your home network that would be a great development for drive makers but that is going to remain a limited market. A 500GB-ish SSD is plenty big enough for most people’s apps and epic sized games if they don’t insist on having their entirely library on hand at a moment’s notice. Such SSDs are likely to get down near $100 in holiday season promotions.

Eric

And David Em added

When Digital Domain opened its doors in the early nineties, one of the owners gave me a tour. If I remember right, he proudly showed me a whole room dedicated to their 1TB of storage, complete with its own cabling and data wrangler.

— David

Spinning metal storage has lasted a lot longer than ever I thought it would: I saw early on that “Silicon is cheaper than iron” and foresaw the development of huge SSD drives; of course this was in the 80’s, and my idea of massive was megabytes (a 5 Mb drive was then rare, and ours was in a structure the size of a two drawer file cabinet; house light dimmed when I turned it on). SSD still has not caught up with spinning metal, but it’s hot on its heels.

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I was impressed by the new Microsoft lines announced, particularly by the new keyboard with key separation for the Surface Pro 4. Since the keyboard works with the Surface Pro 3 I already have, I have pre-ordered one—the one with fingerprint recognition, which I like a lot. I figure I can wait until I can actually see a Surface Pro 4 before deciding to upgrade my Pro 3, but that keyboard looks to be a life saver. It appears to be very like the Logitech K360 I am writing this with; I don’t use the Surface Pro 3 as much as I would like to because I still hit multiple keys in my two-finger typing, and then spend more time correcting sentences that in writing them. The K360 and autocorrect reduces the number of mistakes dramatically; alas I have yet to find the easy access to autocorrect that I have in my Word 2007 on Windows 7, and a K360 for the Surface Pro would be absurd. I have made a number of recoveries from the stroke, but touch typing wasn’t, alas, one of them, and it slows me down a lot. I do like the new Microsoft products.

Peter Glaskowsky said, after the rather impressive announcements by Microsoft of their new line of Surface Pro Tablets

Skylake was designed to deliver the features and performance that Microsoft requested for what became Windows 10, and I’m sure Intel was also thinking about input from Apple that led to Mac OS X El Capitan.
I was reading more details on the Dell systems here:
http://www.cnet.com/products/dell-xps-15-october-2015/
These new machines have some distinct advantages over the new Microsoft Surface Book. They have 4K-resolution displays (even on the XPS 12 tablet!), Thunderbolt 3 (which is also USB 3.1 on a USB Type C connector), battery life up to 18 hours (approaching Montalvo’s 20-hour target; I think this is the first time I’ve seen a machine that gets more than 12 hours without an external battery pack), support for the “minimum Adobe RGB” color gamut (I don’t know exactly what that means, since only Dell uses the phrase, but it must be good! :-), and the prices start at relatively more reasonable levels ($1,000 for the 12 and 15, $800 for the 13).
I’d say Dell has undermined the wow factor from the Microsoft announcements.
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After some discussion of the significance of Skylake, Eric said:

    I linked the piece because I thought these were notable, coming on the heels of the Microsoft news. The new normal. It’s been a while since there was much excitement in PC hardware outside the gaming sector. One thing I predicted is happening, that SSDs from the big OEMs would start hitting the mainstream when PCI-e connections and price/capacity made it impossible to ignore any longer. It had been frustrating to me how long it took for factory installed SSDs to be made available on more than a tiny range of models. I knew plenty of people who wanted new systems but had grown accustomed to SSD after I’d upgraded their existing PCs. They knew they wanted this on every PC going forward but didn’t want to void their warranty for it.

     At the same time, OEMs were largely pretending SSDs didn’t exist. They weren’t even a pricey option on the configuration choices for most models. My belief is that they were faced with a dilemma of how to make the mainstream shoppers appreciate the difference when it meant advertising higher prices for lower capacity. Using very small SSDs combined with traditional spinning platter drives introduced management issues for users that PC OEMs really didn’t want to deal with after many years of selling systems with seeming bottomless pits of storage capacity. Most users are perplexed if you ask them over the phone to put something on drive D: rather than C:.

    The hardware and software vendors weren’t much help. SSHDs (Solid State Hybrid Drives) were supposed to let them get past that issue but drive vendors were charging a lot for very little cache, resulting in a limited improvement the OEMs were reluctant to attempt selling. Intel tried to promote using small SSDs as caches. This offered better capacity than the SSHD approach but Intel’s software was so unreliable as to be useless. I never spoke with anybody who got satisfactory results with it. Microsoft might have helped by making aspects of this native to Windows but either Intel didn’t want to do this or Microsoft never thought to ask.

    Microsoft also dropped the ball on integration of SSDs with hard drives. Apple had a terrific solution in their Fusion Drive feature added Mac OS X. A system could have both types of drive and Fusion would make them appear to be a single volume of their combined capacity and manage which items lived on the faster storage without any understanding or effort by the user. (It also helped that Apple wasn’t intimidated by the price issue.) If a little used app came into more frequent use, it would be migrated to the SSD, entirely behind the scenes. It just got faster in response to user activity.

    Microsoft had most of the pieces needed to do their own version of this, already in Windows 8. Yet they never went the extra steps to make this automatic and easily incorporated by the OEMs. So SATA-connected SSDs will never become a mainstream feature on brand name PCs, despite their popularity among those who build their own or have a more technically adept person they can rely on for the upgrade. With PCI-e connected SSDs, the performance gain is so great (and the price/capacity issue reduced) it can no longer be treated as something for just niche products.

    I think SSDs could have reached a much bigger segment of the market by now if the vendors and OEMs had been more on the ball. These were the same people lamenting the lack of reasons for consumers to buy new PCs, completely failing to promote the biggest improvement to PCs to become available in many years.

    As I understand it, Adobe RGB can be 36-bit or 48-bit, so I’m guessing they’re saying they can accurately display the 36-bit color space, which is a huge improvement over when this became an issue in the 90’s.

    I’m expecting 4K to become the new 1080p as production volumes ramp up. 1080p will move down to much lower priced laptops and mobile devices, with 720p-ish resolution continuing to turn up on just the very cheapest devices. Not that any of us are surprised after seeing this progression so many times.

    HP has nice new models, too.

http://store.hp.com/us/en/pdp/Laptops/hp-spectre-x2—12-a001dx-%28energy-star%29

Eric Pobirs

My conclusion is that we are in for significant changes again as we go through another iteration of Moore’s Law. When things double in power after the previous doublings, they become awesome; that’s the nature of exponentials. Hardware has already outrun software. Now it will double in power several times more. And there’s lots of competition out there…

bubbles

One of the most prolific contributors to Chaos Manor Mail is Joshua Jordan. I am very grateful for the research he does and his comments; but I find I can’t always manage to comment on each missive he sends; yet they deserve more than short shrift. Here, alas, is the short shrift they don’t deserve:

: Alex Jones Interviews Matt Drudge

I know your time is limited, but I think you’ll find this interview is worth your time. Maybe skip through the beginning and get to the interview itself; it’s worth it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxbvYWKhX48

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

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Massive China, Russia, ISIS update

Things are moving at blinding speed in the Middle East right now.

China may be sending forces to Syria to work with Russian forces:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/610286/China-preparing-to-team-up-with-Russia-in-Syria-Boost-for-Putin-in-battle-against-ISIS

Even as evidence emerges that Turkey is working with ISIS, NATO seems ready to deploy troops:

http://www.infowars.com/nato-prepares-to-send-troops-to-protect-turkey-from-russian-threats/

Russian media also mentions the NATO deployment and says Turkey will be cutting a gas contract with Russia:

http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/08-10-2015/132275-russia_turkey-0/#sthash.d2fA9sUM.dpuf

Brzezinski wrote an op-ed in FT encouraging activities that I suspect will cause animosity and lead to that world war I’ve been mentioning from time to time in some of my emails.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c1ec2488-6aa8-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3npqX6Wfe

Notice Brzezinski seems underestimate the Chinese and notice the goals of his “strategic boldness” constitute “cooperation”, something Putin already offered. Therefore it is clear that one or both sides want “cooperation” on their terms or a misunderstanding exists. If we have a misunderstanding, I think we need to clear it up immediately. If we have are at crossed purposes then we need to create a compromise.

This is the 21st century and we are great powers. We need to set the example; not dump metal and chemicals on one another like glorified primates tossing excrement at one another in the tree tops. But, that’s just my opinion and I suspect I’m in the minority.

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Trump says that Putin wants to eradicate ISIS.  The US wants ISIS eradicated.  Let the Russians do it.  Alas ISIS gets a vote here, and they operate close to our only friends in the Near East, the Kurds.  Iran and Russia are becoming closer allies; and Iran does not love the Kurds, and has some fears of Kurdish power in Iran.  And it gets more complicated.

ISIS – the Caliphate – has declared war on us.  I could destroy ISIS with two divisions – it used to be I needed only one – and suitable air support including A-10 and other gunships. We could then give ISIS holdings we have conquered in former Iraq to the Kurds, with Baghdad having no say in the matter.  Ignoring the Caliphate as they plan to make war on us – and while they grow, mestastizing into other lands – does not seem a good idea, tactically or strategically; nor does abandoning the Kurds to the tender mercies of Iran and Russia.

More Government Harassment

On the heels of the Secret Service wanting to embarrass a Congressman:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/watchdog-top-secret-service-official-wanted-information-about-chaffetz-made-public/2015/09/30/ff280378-67ae-11e5-9ef3-fde182507eac_story.html

Now an edit to Wikipedia accuses McCarthy of having an affair and the IP address came from the Department of Homeland Security:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/08/did-someone-at-dhs-edit-the-wikipedia-pages-of-kevin-mccarthy-and-renee-ellmers/

Of course, DHS will investigate itself and of course if we have Congressional hearings we can’t expect any results. After all, nothing came of the IRS scandal and nothing came of the ATF scandal or any of the other scandals. We’re a third world country now; this is the new normal.

And, Sean Hannity wants Newt Gingrich to come back and be speaker of the House. Apparently one does not need to be a member of the House to be speaker. Wasn’t he speaker during NAFTA? And we’re coming up on TPP? I suspect Hannity was having a laugh.

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I confess I would very much like to have Newt back as Speaker. It won’t happen of course, but he was the best Speaker of my memory. Full disclosure: Of course he was also my friend.

bubbles

The United States Navy just hit the iceberg:

<.>

The United States Navy’s Bureau of Medicine and Surgery has issued a warning about “male privilege” and is teaching ways to combat it.

</>

http://www.theamericanmirror.com/u-s-navy-teaching-members-to-combat-male-privilege/

You can go read the article if you want, I doubt you’ll find anything encouraging.

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

We’re moving closer to war with China:

<.>

China said on Friday it would not stand for violations of its territorial waters in the name of freedom of navigation, as the United States considers sailing warships close to China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea.

A U.S. defense official told Reuters the United States was mulling sending ships within the next two weeks to waters inside the 12-nautical-mile zones that China claims as territory around islands it has built in the Spratly chain.

China claims most of the South China Sea, though Washington has signaled it does not recognize Beijing’s territorial claims and that the U.S. navy will continue to operate wherever international law allows.

“We will never allow any country to violate China’s territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands, in the name of protecting freedom of navigation and overflight,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular news briefing.

</>

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/09/us-china-usa-southchinasea-idUSKCN0S30ND20151009

Freedom of the sea is important to us and the Chinese want to deny that freedom. This is a powerful index of incompatibility.

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

This is hardly a surprise.

A Leaked Budget May Finally Show How the Islamic State Makes Its Money

https://news.vice.com/article/a-leaked-budget-may-finally-show-how-the-islamic-state-makes-its-money?utm_source=vicenewsemail

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I lived in India. I did not live there long enough to have difficulty assimilating back into my culture, which many people who stay too long often report. but I lived there long enough to think that I’d seen quite a lot that I didn’t think was possible. and now we have the dirt mafia. The only thing I know of that we’ve ever conceptualized like this in the west is the mineshaft gap in Dr. Strangelove.

How India’s ‘Sand Mafia’ Pillages Land, Terrorizes People, and Gets Away With It

https://news.vice.com/article/how-indias-sand-mafia-pillages-land-terrorizes-people-and-gets-away-with-it?utm_source=vicenewsemail

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Having never lived in India, I never learned of the Sand Mafia; I am hardly astonished to learn they exist.

bubbles

US says no to encryption law – for now (ZD)

US administration will not seek law to force tech companies to decrypt customer communications, says FBI chief.

By Steve Ranger | October 9, 2015 — 13:33 GMT (06:33 PDT) |

The US government has decided not to call for new legislation to force tech companies to decode the encrypted communications of their customers – for now at least.

Police and intelligence agencies have become increasingly concerned about the use of end-to-end encrypted communications services by criminals because it is all but impossible to decode the conversations.

With more traditional methods of communication there is usually a way for the service provider to allow police – with a warrant – access to the data. But end-to-end encryption means the only place the message is unscrambled is on the smartphone itself.

“Changing forms of internet communication and the use of encryption are posing real challenges to the FBI’s ability to fulfill its public safety and national security missions. This [is a] real and growing gap,” said FBI director James Comey in a written statement to the Senate’s Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

Comey told the committee that terrorists are using social networks to find recruits and then switching to end-to-end encrypted networks to continue their interactions.

bubbles

It’s been ten years since Sony Music infected the world with its rootkit

Oct 31 2005: Security researcher Mark Russinovich blows the whistle on Sony-BMG, whose latest “audio CDs” were actually multi-session data-discs, deliberately designed to covertly infect Windows computers when inserted into their optical drives.

The malware installed by Sony blinded infected computers’ immune systems. Any file that began with “$sys$” became invisible to the operating system, not displayed in directory listings nor process-managers. Antivirus programs could not see files that began with this string. Immediately, other virus creators started renaming their programs to start with $sys$, so that they could operate under the stealth-cloak installed by Sony. These opportunistic infections were also invisible to antivirus programs.

In the end, we discovered that more than 6,000,000 malware-infected CDs were shipped, comprising 51 titles. These infected 200,000-300,000 US government and military networks

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Enjoy:

Can Philosophy Be Justified in a Time of Crisis?

Nathan J Robinson

Harvard University
September 3, 2015

Abstract:

In this paper, I take the position that a large portion of contemporary academic work is an appalling waste of human intelligence that cannot be justified under any mainstream normative ethics. Part I builds a four-step argument for why this is the case, while Part II responds to arguments for the contrary position offered in Cass Sunstein’s “In Defense of Law Reviews.” First, in Part I(A), I make the case that there is a large crisis of suffering in the world today. (Part I does not take me very long.). In Part I(B), I assess various theories of “the role of the intellectual,” concluding that the only role for the intellectual is for the intellectual to cease to exist. In Part I(C), I assess the contemporary state of the academy, showing that, contrary to the theory advanced in Part I(B), many intellectuals insist on continuing to exist. In Part I(D), I propose a new path forward, whereby present-day intellectuals take on a useful social function by spreading truths that help to alleviate the crisis of suffering outlined in Part I(A).

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2442511#show2655751

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellence;  Avoider of Yard Work

I don’t dare comment…

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We’ve seen this before but it is worth bringing up again:

Perth electrical engineer?s discovery will change climate change debate

This will come as no surprise to you or your subscribers, but it’s interesting that it is coming into the public realm now.

http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineers-discovery-will-change-climate-change-debate/story-fnii5thn-1227555674611

Richard White

Austin, Texas

“The model architecture was wrong,” he says. “Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming. The climate is largely driven by factors outside our control.”

Well, duh!

“While climate scientists have been predicting since the 1990’s that changes in temperature would follow changes in carbon dioxide, the records over the past half million years show that not to be the case.”

“But the political obstacles are massive.”

Richard White

Austin, Texas

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Ubeam sort of explains its claims

http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/08/how-ubeam-works/?ncid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29&sr_share=twitter

    A while back we  talked about a wireless power company’s extraordinary claims for their product. They now say they’re able to discuss the details but I’ll reserve judgment for a shipping product.

Eric Pobirs

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Clinton Email Bloodbath

I don’t know how much worse this thing could possibly get before people realize that something is severely amiss. The NY Post did an excellent just summarizing comparatively recent events on Clinton’s ongoing email scandal:

<.>

Hillary Clinton’s “there’s no evidence of that” line of defense over her e-mail mess continues to crumble in the face of . . . new evidence.

For all her talk of how using a private e-mail account for her work running the State Department was just fine, it’s now plain she left top-secret information vulnerable to hackers.

More evidence is likely to come out. The FBI’s probe has now expanded to include another private server she used, a backup service with Connecticut-based Datto Inc.

And now The Associated Press has confirmed that her main server was the target of repeated cyberattacks from China, South Korea and Germany. And those came after she left office, when her team belatedly agreed to use some threat-monitoring software.

In other news, a FOIA request from the watchdog group Citizens United has uncovered the fact that Hill’s chief of staff, Cheryl Mills, was forwarding classified info to the Clinton Foundation — so staff there could support Bill Clinton’s work in Africa.

Add to this new details about Hillary’s e-mails with longtime aide Sidney Blumenthal — e-mails that somehow didn’t make it into the data she finally handed over once word broke that she’d failed to share her work product with the government.

Her extensive communications with him include the naming of a CIA source (obviously classified) as he pushed for action in Libya — action that would benefit his clients.

</>

http://nypost.com/2015/10/11/fresh-evidence-keeps-sinking-hillary-clintons-e-mail-defense/

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

It is fairly clear that her mail server, and the Benghazi affair, are indications of her character and competence.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Word OnLine; Surface Pro; and other matters. You are not a good parent if you do not know about the Kahn Academy.

Chaos Manor View, Wednesday, October 7, 2015

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As usual on Wednesdays, Niven and Barnes were over and we had a story conference on The Cthulhu War, That’s the working title of the interstellar colony novel we’re working on; as to why Cthulhu in a science in a hard science fiction novel, see The Secret of Blackship Island http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Island-novella-Avalon-Series-ebook/dp/B007MSK4HM and you’ll know.

I then investigated use of Word OnLine, and was able to open and was able to open and edit a copy of the manuscript posted to the cloud by Barnes; later Niven was able to open it and edit from his machine at home. Barnes used one version of Word to create it on a Mac; I have accessed it from Alien Artifact, a 64-bit Windows 7 system, from Swan, a 64-bit Windows 10 system, and Precious, a Surface Pro 3 running the latest beta release of Windows 10. They all worked. While Word 16 or whatever it is called has more collaboration features, Word OnLine is plenty Good Enough for what we do.

I have been in the Monk’s Cell, and have produced a thousand or so words of Mamelukes, with considerable work on the progress of a sea battle – of course no battle plan survived contact with the enemy. And I know where most of my characters are and what they are doing when this book ends. Progress is being made.

I can do three of the Five Tibetan Rituals now to a repetition of 10, and 20 sit-ups; it’s progress.

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Microsoft announced a new Surface Product Line, including a Surface Pro 4 with a new keyboard, and a Surface Book, which is the top of their Surface line. I have ordered the keyboard for the Pro 4; it appears to be better than the Surface Pro 3 keyboard. I will probably get a Pro 4 but I want to see it in action first; the 3 remains good enough. I did more experimenting with it today, and the keys are still too close together, but the new Pro 4 keyboard from the pictures has more key separation. I hit two keys at once on the 3 far too often, but I did get a bit better with it as time wore on, and I found I was spending more time writing and less correcting what I had written; I have high hopes for the Pro 4 keyboard. If thing go well, I will get a Pro 4.

I’m working just now with Swan, a fast Windows 10 desktop in the back bedroom. I am using the Logitech K360 keyboard, which has good separation of keys; I have K360 boards on all my main machines except the Surface Pro 3. And I am learning to type faster, although only two finger while staring at the keyboard. The I look up at the screen and see all the wavy red lines most caused by my hitting two keys,

When I went to play with the Surface Pro 3, I found that it had downloaded no Outlook mail after 2 October, and it was now telling me it couldn’t find the server. I complained to my advisors, then remembered the primary trouble shooting tool: restart the app. I proceeded to do so: shut down Outlook. Restart Outlook. And behold, it downloaded a week’s worth of mail, quickly and efficiently, and all’s well. While that was happening Eric sent me this link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn2FB1P_Mn8

It was appropriate, but in my defense, Precious had several updates since Oct 2, and had been reset each time; even so, that wasn’t shutting down. In any event, closing and restarting Outlook fixed the problem. I understand that Microsoft is going to make the quick access to autocorrect available to Word 365 or whatever they call it now, but I don’t know how to do it; I sure need it. Going to File / Options / Proofing / autocorrect while trying to remember exactly what you mistyped is useless. I do understand there is a fix, but I sure don’t have it yet.

Eric says

    If you buy an Office or Word license, that version will be with you however long you care to use it. Word from an Office 365 subscription will eventually upgrade to the latest version but there are ways to delay that for several months. The difference between word 2016 and 2013 is fairly subtle though. Aside from the return of AutoCorrect to the right-click menu, most of the differences are in the collaboration features.

    If you all get up to date there some very elaborate things, like real-time collaboration where you see each other typing away but I doubt that is really desirable for your group most of time. It could be good for plotting sessions if you have a shared notepad but looking over each other’s virtual shoulder as you type would probably be annoying. I expect that will be used more by corporate workgroups.

Eric Pobirs

He also says

About every two weeks or so,  Live Mail 2012 does an email download with infinite incoming messages. None of them actually exist but if it isn’t interrupted it will go on like that forever, never downloading any actual messages. You don’t have to exit the program but you do need to make the incoming message display visible so you can hit the stop button. After that it downloads messages normally.

Eric

And finally:

    You may want to try it on Swan first, due to the larger screen. In addition to the familiar red squiggly underline for unknown words there is also a little box that appears on the left end of the red squiggly line. Right-click on that box and you’ll be offered the AutoCorrect setting dialogue. The issue I raised before is in how it uses the item highlighted to seed new entries.

I need to test this but so far I cannot see any box at the end of the red squiggly line. I’m writing on Swan now. Eventually we’ll get this straightened out.

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I urge you to read http://www.wsj.com/articles/zuckerbergs-100-million-lesson-1444087064 which tells the story of how Mark Zuckerberg gave #100 million to a school district, and what the results were: nothing. You cannot help this awful school system by throwing money at it.

Then stay tuned: there are a few success stories, although the blob – the faceless officials and administrators and union officials who run our hopelessly awful school system – generally suppresses them. The protoplasm in the pupils has not degenerated. The potential is still there as it was when we used a real Sixth Grade Reader http://www.amazon.com/California-Sixth-Grade-Reader-Pournelle-ebook/dp/B00LZ7PB7E .The Iron Law has prevailed in the public schools, and that prolongs the depression – the only reason the unemployment rate is under 20% is because those who gave up looking for work are not, officially, unemployed – and slowly turns America into a Third World Country. That is the current situation. We can do something, but we probably won’t.

If you have kids of any age and do not know of the Kahn Academy https://www.khanacademy.org/ remedy that instantly.

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It’s getting late. Stephanie sends this link:

http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineers-discovery-will-change-climate-change-debate/story-fnii5thn-1227555674611
If you want to learn more about climate predictions, read it.

And I remind you of

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/09/30/massive_global_cooling_factor_discovered_ahead_of_paris_climate_talks/

Our models don’t work. This might be one reason.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Mac Office users warning; Low Energy Nuclear; and other stories

Chaos Manor View, Monday, October 5, 2015

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It’s bedtime. I’ve worked on Mamelukes and sort of tended to mail, but I’ve pretty well neglected this place. I’ll get back to it shortly, but I’m on a fiction roll just now.

There are a few things to notice.

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LENR Status

Hello Jerry,

A presentation on the current LENR state of play by a PhD Physicist from my old department at NSWC Dahlgren:

http://www.lenr-forum.com/forum/index.php/Attachment/386-IEEE-brief-DeChiaro-9-2015-pdf/

Short, not much detail, but there is apparently growing evidence that there is really a ‘there’ there.

Of course I’ll be convinced when I can by one at Lowe’s to heat my house or a subset thereof (or as one outfit proposes, buy a car with a 30 kmile ‘LENR tank’), but in the meantime I continue to HOPE real hard.

Bob Ludwick

If there’s even a small chance of a 30,000 mile car – 30k on one filling – there are plenty of investors who will want to get in on it. And I note that the Office of Naval Research has never given up on LENR. And that most research centers are leery of press conferences; next time it won’t leave any doubts. But, as you say, the evidence that something is to be found piles up, and we can hope.

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OS X El Capitan and MS Office 2011 / 2016

Dear Dr Pournelle,

A word of warning to your readers: If you use Office 2011 or OS 2016 on OS X Yosemite, you may wish to wait before upgrading to OS X El Capitan.

OS X El Capitan breaks Outlook 2011 and almost all of Office 2016. Just about everything refuses to start or crashes repeatedly. I have experienced problems myself and they are also well documented at http://www.macrumors.com/2015/10/05/microsoft-office-2016-el-capitan-bugs/

Microsoft is working on it, apparently.

Best wishes,

Simon Woodworth BSc MSc PhD.

Thank you.

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Snowden Drama

This whole Snowden Affair looks more like a soap opera now; not that it changes anything revealed but the characters and activities are getting strange. I wonder if things aren’t so good in Moscow anymore?

Maybe his recent criticism of Russian policy wasn’t a good idea?

<.>

Edward Snowden says he has offered to return to the United States and go to jail for leaking details of National Security Agency programs to intercept electronic communications data on a vast scale.

The former NSA contractor flew to Moscow two years ago after revealing information about the previously secret eavesdropping powers, and faces U.S. charges that could land him in prison for up to 30 years.

Snowden told the BBC that he’d “volunteered to go to prison with the government many times,” but had not received a formal plea-deal offer.

He said that “so far they’ve said they won’t torture me, which is a start, I think. But we haven’t gotten much further than that.”

</>

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BRITAIN_EDWARD_SNOWDEN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-05-13-50-39

Normally, if you’re a guest in someone’s home you abide by their behavior and if you cannot bear it then you leave. You do not tell others how to live in their own home. Is this fallout from that?

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

There is some probability that rational decision is not the governing phenomenon here.

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Tactics, strategy, and politics

This article is worth most people’s time. While I presume you have a keen grasp of the subject matter contained herein, a past contributor

— whose name escapes me at the moment — mentioned the difference between doctrine and weapons systems. If I were at my PC I run a Google search on your site and name the contributor because the point was apt. However, I’m on my mobile phone and lack the time to do it so I respectfully request allowances in this matter.

Having said that, this article touches upon that point in more detail and applies that point not only in the military sense but also stretches into its implication for the body politic. the article mentions essays and statements by other people commented on the matter and you may find it interesting even if you’re already abreast with the substance of the discussion.

@WarOnTheRocks: If one cannot tell the difference between task and purpose, how can one become a strategist? http://ow.ly/T1xI9

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Actually, the necessity for doctrines is discussed in The Strategy of Technology by Stefan T. Possony, Jerry Pournelle, and Francis X. Kane. Of course most of the examples in that 1970 book are from the Cold War.

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“These results demonstrate for the first time that, regardless of potential radiation effects on individual animals, the Chernobyl exclusion zone supports an abundant mammal community after nearly three decades of chronic radiation exposure.”

<http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/chernobyl-disaster-exclusion-zone-around-plant-has-become-wildlife-haven-on-par-with-nature-reserves-a6680396.html>

Hiroshima and Nagasaki support abundant bipedal mammal communities, too.

Kind of puts paid to the Union of Confused Scientists, doesn’t it?

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

As opposed to coal mine tailings and other fossil fuel sites… With sufficient energy you can deal with any chemical wastes. And Chernobyl was a weapons reactor, not a power reactor; no positive void reactors can be licensed in the US; that’s fundamental atomic law, written into the Atomic Energy Act by Edward Teller.

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‘Cyber banging’ drives new generation of gang violence

Jerry

This is happening just south of you:

http://www.latimes.com/local/crime/la-me-1003-banks-lapd-gang-shootings-20151003-column.html

“Many of the people who were shot this summer seem like inexplicable targets, neither robbery victims nor gang-involved. “Somebody just drives to where the person is, walks up, shoots them, gets back in the car and drives off,” Harris-Dawson said.

“We’re used to people beefing in public,” he said. “Now the whole conflict is happening on social media. And all of us — interventionists, police, the community — are in over our heads on that.”

I’ve stayed off of social media for professional reasons, so I’ve missed all that. And really, this seems to be as much of a time-waster as television. “We’re dealing with a different generation and we’re going to have to evolve,”

Inevitable, wasn’t it?

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Dear Dr. Pournelle, 

It appears that Russia is making a play to become the new international arbiter of the Middle East. 

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/28/leave-it-to-vlad-and-the-supreme-leader-obama-iraq-iran-middle-east/

Foreign Policy’s correspondents are divided as to whether this blindsided the administration, or if this is the administration’s real plan for the Middle East — to abandon it to the Russians while we concentrate on our own domestic issues. 

Certainly the author of the piece believes the second is more likely, as Putin evidently did tell President Obama face-to-face that he was planning on escalating pressure on ISIS.  
The scope of the Pentagon’s Anti-ISIS training effort — all 60 recruits — does not project confidence in the effort.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/247060-pentagon-only-training-60-syrian-rebels-against-isis

Huffington Post suggests that there are other “black” operations under way in larger numbers 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/four-five-fighters-pentagon-syria_55f9ad27e4b0d6492d63ed49
but, if so, they have neither been effective at containing ISIS or convincing the Russians of our seriousness. 
It seems that we are abandoning influence in a region we have considered of utmost importance since 1945. Regaining it will probably not happen without bloodshed. 
Respectfully, 

Brian P.

 

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Climate Model Developments; ISIS

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Thursday, October 01, 2015

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The week has been enjoyably consumed by family matters, with three of our four boys in town. Wednesday I had a good story conference with Niven and Barnes and Jack Cohen by Skype from England, and lunch after that. All’s well, but as usual I have been falling behind.

Nice walk this morning with Frank, my number two son, after dinner with Alex (1), Frank (2), and Richard (4), lacking Phillip (3) who is still a career Navy officer. Now Frank and Richard have gone home, and we’ll try to get back to what passes for routine at Chaos Manor. It was all complicated by a dead rat who expired Monday behind the walls in the downstairs office, rendering the place unusable with the smell. The exterminators are due in hours, but the smell was so awful that I cajoled Frank into clearing access to an access door, where, Lo! he found and extracted the corpse, so I am able to write this; it’s hot outside, but we have all the windows open, and I prefer hot with a fan to the alternative as normal chaos returns…

And it’s lunch time.

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The big news is Climate Models: they have left out an important factor in cloud formation. The expensive climate models we depend on for climate predictions cannot predict the present from the past, and cannot explain the past fifteen years of virtually no warming at all: they predicted a monotonic temperature rise that failed to happen.

MASSIVE GLOBAL COOLING process discovered as Paris climate deal looms • The Register

Thought y’all might be interested in this. Credit belongs to Jim W., but he doesn’t have your emails on his smartphone, which is all he has access to right now.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

“Sometimes you gotta say what’s in your heart… And you have to stand for what you believe. No matter what.”
~’Dr. Michael C. Anders,’ Burnout: The mystery of Space Shuttle STS-281

Date: Thu, 1 Oct 2015 12:09:36 -0500
Subject: MASSIVE GLOBAL COOLING process discovered as Paris climate deal looms • The Register
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/09/30/massive_global_cooling_factor_discovered_ahead_of_paris_climate_talks/

A team of top-level atmospheric chemistry boffins from France and Germany say they have identified a new process by which vast amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted into the atmosphere from the sea – a process which was unknown until now, meaning that existing climate models do not take account of it.

The effect of VOCs in the air is to cool the climate down, and thus climate models used today predict more warming than can actually be expected. Indeed, global temperatures have actually been stable for more than fifteen years, a circumstance which was not predicted by climate models and which climate science is still struggling to assimilate.

In essence, the new research shows that a key VOC, isoprene, is not only produced by living organisms (for instance plants and trees on land and plankton in the sea) as had previously been assumed. It is also produced in the “microlayer” at the top of the ocean by the action of sunlight on floating chemicals – no life being necessary. And it is produced in this way in very large amounts.

The standard climate models have never been very good on clouds and cloud formation; this is known, and many of the ad hoc corrections usually applied to the models’ predictions have involved clouds, their formation, and their effects. This new discovery will be an important correction to the models. Obviously, C02 increases facilitate more growth of plants on land, which may increase VOC production – a negative feedback.

It is also reasonable to assume that increased ocean temperatures will increase formation of VOC’s, and cloud reflectivity over the ocean may have some effect on el Nino events, which we do not understand. None of this affects the influence of C02 on warming, of course, but the negative feedback mechanisms may explain why the models have been so unsuccessful in explaining the actual climate behavior.

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The situation in Syria is serious, and we have an incompetent Secretary of State and a President not educated in foreign policy, and not gifted with natural talent in that subject.

Meanwhile ISIS, The Caliphate, thrives having declared war on the United States while openly calling for terrorist attacks on the West in general and the US in particular. It suffers little punishment for these acts, and the President’s responses to the televised brutality of the ISIS regime have not been effective.

The United States, by pronouncement of the President and the Secretary of State, has a policy demanding regime change in Syria without specifying what regime it should change to. President Obama has also designated ISIS as “the junior varsity” and also demanded its end, but ISIS has continued to grow; it presumably is not the President’s designated successor to the Baathist regime of Western educated Syrian President Assad. Now that the US has cooperated in the regime change in Libya, ISIS has colonies there as well.  So long as ISIS has territories to rule by its version of Islamic Law, it will continue to attract recruits as it claims to be the legitimate Caliphate: if effect The Return of the King.

Baathists put Arab unity as a primary goal; this means toleration of both Sunni and Shiite Arabs, and also toleration of other Arabs including Christian and Druze. When the American Press speaks of “moderate Arabs” it generally means Baathists although it does not seem to realize this. The Baathist Party has generally thrived in Arab nations with Sunni majorities, although Baathist party members are often Shiite. Baathist regimes tend to be one-party despotates ruling by force.

The President does not seem to understand that majority rule democracy in the Middle East equates to legalizing persecution of minorities; and this is generally inevitable. Lebanon had a multi-party multi-religion multi-ethnic regime at one time, but the US support was slowly withdrawn, and the tolerant regime has pretty well vanished. Lebanon was not a majoritarian democracy, but it was constitutional with offices reserved for Marionites, Shiites, Sunni, and Druze.  It worked at one time, but generally the only tolerant regimes have not been democracies. We will except Israel, but it is very much an exception.

Now Putin has offered cooperation and has been rebuffed. I foresee interesting times as Russian warplanes attack the Caliphate and Obama worries that they will also strike “moderate Muslims” whom Obama approves of – if he can find any. Interesting times.

Perhaps it is time to leave Syria to the Russians and Assad, and concentrate on shoring up the Kurds, who are the only real friends we have in the region?

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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