Scalia and the Court; More on Trump; The Cold War returns

Chaos Manor View, Sunday, February 14, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

bubbles

The pledge drive week is ended, and thanks.

 

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I was going to suggest that the best thing Trump could do to show he is a serious candidate would be to discuss his possible appointments to the Supreme Court, but he obviously understands such things: he has gone on record as saying we need someone just like Scalia. He named one possibility but made it clear he was looking for Scalia replacements: scholarly, conservative, and persuasive. He scores high with me in his answers on Meet The Press today, and was neither frivolous nor overly aggressive. He is no philosopher, nor claims to be; he remains a pragmatic populist.

And he certainly would not nominate Bill Clinton or Barrack Hussein Obama…

This will be a critical appointment to USSC; with Scalia gone, the balance is close. We have two Obama and two Clinton appointments; one remaining by Reagan; and three by Bushes. The next one will, like Scalia before him, be pretty well the tie breaker on Constitutional matters. God helps look out for fools, drinks, and the United States of America, and we really need Him on this one.

The Hon. Antonin G. Scalia, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, RIP.

<http://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-antonin-scalia-20160213-story.html>

He will be missed.

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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I have some new stories about Computing at Chaos Manor, but it is for another time. Meanwhile:

Charles Murray on Trump’s America

http://www.aei.org/publication/trumps-america/

Phil Tharp

Is an extremely important essay by one of the few sociologists for whom I have any respect or regard, and I recommend it to all of you. It’s worth your time.

Jerry,

Via Instapundit, http://www.aei.org/publication/trumps-america/

Charles Murray, author of “Coming Apart”, methodically lays out where Mr. Trump’s current wave of support comes from. Long, and impossible to do justice to by a few short quotes, but here are a few anyway.

“If you are dismayed by Trumpism, don’t kid yourself that it will fade away if Donald Trump fails to win the Republican nomination. Trumpism is an expression of the legitimate anger that many Americans feel about the course that the country has taken, and its appearance was predictable.

It is the endgame of a process that has been going on for a

half-century: America’s divestment of its historic national identity.”

“The new upper class consists of the people who shape the country’s economy, politics and culture. The new lower class consists of people who have dropped out of some of the most basic institutions of American civic culture, especially work and marriage. Both of these new classes have repudiated the American creed in practice, whatever lip service they may still pay to it. Trumpism is the voice of a beleaguered working class telling us that it too is falling away.”

“Another characteristic of the new upper class—and something new under the American sun—is their easy acceptance of being members of an upper class and their condescension toward ordinary Americans.”

“For its part, mainstream America is fully aware of this condescension and contempt and is understandably irritated by it. American egalitarianism is on its last legs.”

“..the central truth of Trumpism as a phenomenon is that the entire American working class has legitimate reasons to be angry at the ruling class.”

Any Republican – any conservative, any American – who hopes to end this year with a chance to begin fixing the damage and pulling the country back together should read this piece and think hard.

I wrote recently about part of what Murray addresses, the erosion of our middle classes at the lower margin. My takeaway from this piece:

<bold>Our upper classes and their destructive cult of progressive virtue-signaling must also be addressed.</bold>

Not taxed out of existence to pay for far vaster entitlements as Bernie Sanders proposes – that simply won’t work. Nor are Mr. Trump’s current blunt repudiations of parts of their foolishness sufficient. Enjoyable and long overdue, yes, but not sufficient.

Our ruling classes, our self-anointed betters, require persuasive explanation of how far they’ve strayed from the essence of being American, along with a combination of shaming and cajolement to induce at least some of them to start rejoining the old ideal of the country.

The candidate that can do this, with that deft amiable Reagan touch (which as you point out, he made look easy, but it’s anything but) will burn Bernie, bury Hillary, out-trump Trump, and likely take 40+ states.

Not because he’ll immediately convince the ruling class – they took decades to drift into that state, they’ll take time to climb back out – but because a large majority of the country knows we’re crumbing but hasn’t yet heard a persuasively reasoned fix.

I wouldn’t rule out Trump being the one to do this. It’s a logical extension of what he’s been doing, and he is certainly a capable man.

It does require far more hard work (and risk) than he’s committed to so far.

Is there anyone else among the current candidates who also might gain then wield the bully pulpit thus? Cruz has the combination of deep intelligence and utter lack of need for establishment-approval it’d take. One or two others seem to have the intelligence…

Interesting times.

Porkypine

As you say.  Interesting times.  What is certain is that this broken system of education cannot go on; and that, with a false philosophy required to be learned and believed in order to graduate, reminds us of other places in the past.  But not even the USSR required you to incur a lifetime of debt in order to take your four years of Marxism.

 

bubbles

It’s Official, New Cold War with Russia

Well, it’s now official, once more we face the Red Menace:

<.>

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said his country is in a new Cold War with the U.S. and its allies, underscoring the tenuous level of trust that’s putting a day-old plan for a truce in Syria at risk.

</>

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-13/russia-sees-new-cold-war-as-nato-chief-criticizes-nuclear-threat

Thankfully, some of us experienced this; we’re ready for this. Or so we think….

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

It has been building since Clinton and Albright chose the anti-Slavic side in a Balkan conflicts they did not understand, and in which the United States had no discernible interest. They bombed Serbia, dropped the bridges on the lower Danube thus wrecking economies all along the river, and achieved little beyond angering the Russians and earning the hatred of Serbians. The cost of resurrecting SAC will be enormous, yet there must be a MAD component because we have not moved far enough toward strategic defense; meanwhile we have wasted much of the economy on nonsense like alcohol fuels – which are not all that useful for cars, but keep the price of corn and sugar high – and other expensive “renewable” energy. If renewable energy is the goal – and it is a worthy one – nuclear power is the best we know of now; but more is spent on regulations and lawyers than on research and development of nuclear energy.

ISIS is a common enemy of all Europe and America, but few seem to recognize it.

And now we have a new Cold War with Russia. A grand reset.

Well, this is interesting and I have comments:

<.>

Europe is facing a convergence of the worst crises since World War II, and the overwhelming consensus among officials and experts here is that the U.S. no longer has the will or the ability to play an influential role in solving them.

At the Munich Security Conference, the prime topics are the refugee crisis, the Syrian conflict, Russian aggression and the potential dissolution of the European Union’s very structure. Top European leaders repeatedly lamented that 2015 saw all of Europe’s problems deepen, and unanimously predicted that in 2016 they would get even worse.

“The question of war and peace has returned to the continent,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the audience, indirectly referring to Russian military interventions. “We had thought that peace had returned to Europe for good.”

</>

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-13/europe-s-convinced-u-s-won-t-solve-its-problems

First, we both know that Europe is a joke militarily. I sent you articles about how the British and French considered merging their navies since neither country really has one anymore. I also wrote about how the UK MOD said they cannot initiate or sustain wars as of more than 10 years ago. I also wrote about how the German NATO rapid strike force used mop handles in a comparatively recent exercise because they had no small arms.

Second, when I traveled, I got nothing but bullshit from young Australians, Canadians, Kiwis, Englishmen, and people I affectionately came to refer to as “Eurotrash” simply for being American. Oh, we’re so evil. We’re the source of all the pain and suffering in the world.

My feelings of “friendship” with Europe disappeared during my travels.

And after listening to English chavs denounce my country, the country that saved them from two world wars, I’m not interested in helping them out of the kindness of my heart either.

I am not surprised Europe is in the dying cockroach position and I find it amusing that it’s “America’s fault” for “not helping”. My interests in Europe are purely geopolitical. Their politics, their societies, and their attitudes are about as acceptable to me as those of the American left. Though I wouldn’t mind having a cottage in Switzerland and the Swiss were never rude to me about my nationality.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

bubbles

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“It is as though they all have some signs of being on an Asperger’s spectrum.”

<www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/25/we-are-hopelessly-hooked/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Having spent two generations sowing the wind, whirlwind reapings may be expected.

bubbles

The earth’s core vs. climate

A geologist acquaintance of mine made the statement that earth’s core being a giant nuclear reactor is a major determinant of climate. That the internal heat thus generated is what makes our planet habitable and is the reason that Mars, lacking such, can never be made habitable.
I am at a loss as to where to turn to research this, I am not seeking to refute his position, simply to learn. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

John Pennell

I do not advise you to ask at your university; such questions are no longer appropriate. While climatologists have no explanation of El Nino, they use the El Nino warnings as explanations for why their climate models don’t work; but still they don’t. There now so many whose careers depend on manmade global warning that it is not even possible to discuss the subject in most universities; it is fatal to any academic success.

 

The sun’s quiet activity could trigger a mini ice age, researchers warn | Daily Mail Online

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3444633/What-happened-sun-Solar-activity-remains-quietest-century-trigger-mini-ice-age.html

Charles Brumbelow

At least we know how to throw another log on the fire…

bubbles

The Last Bastion of the Liberal Left

“To legitimize itself, the Left needs to hide the truth that the central planning it loves only begets misery. So all it has remaining is trying to shut the rest of us up.”
“Government By ‘Experts’ Is Failing Everywhere”
“Social Science Has Moved On”
“Research Shows Strong, Traditional Institutions Matter Most”
“The Last Leftist Bastion: Environmentalism”
A good essay with these paragraph topics telling you where it’s going.
http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/12/political-correctness-is-a-mask-for-leftists-intellectual-insecurity/
Pete

bubbles

Gravitational Waves and a Fish in Water

Jerry,

The euphoria about the gravitational wave detection reminds me of the fish that first heard the sound of the finger tap on the aquarium, but still has no understanding of, nor ability to comprehend water.

Cheers,

Jeff D

Nor have we; aether is still not falsified.

 

bubbles

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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clip_image002

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Porkypine, Trump, and other matters

Chaos Manor View and Mail, Thursday, February 11, 2016

 

More dentistry, but I drove myself to the dentist, and tonight Roberta drove herself to choir practice; we have reached the recuperation phase of the various ailments that have been bugging us. Tomorrow I should do a full day’s work, God willing.

Also I solved the dreaded 503 error and understand it now for the Surface Pro 3 with Pro 4 keyboard, which combination I recommend; I doubt I will buy a Pro 4, at least for a while; I can recommend the Surface Pro 3 with Pro 4 keyboard as good enough for a road warrior. Do carry a charging system and use often. Write-up coming in Chaos Manor Reviews covering 503 error, fingerprint ID on the Pro 4, and some more on .pst files.

It’s late. Short shrift time. Gravitational waves; I have a young friend who has a working fellowship at Cal Tech so I pretty well knew it was coming, but I wasn’t on the official press list (which was embargoed anyway) and it would have done you no good to know a few days in advance. I haven’t thought what this does to Beckmann’s ether theory, but it does not seem to me to refute it; Beckmann postulated that the local gravitational field is the aether in which everything waves, and I see no evidence that negates that. Beckmann assumed that gravity propagates at the speed of light, but that is not unchanging depending on the strength of the local gravitational field, and might be significantly different between galaxies or at galactic centers; this may go a way to explaining the gravitational anomalies which have caused the postulation of dark matter and dark energy. At this point you have exceeded my mathematical abilities and I must leave the rest to someone who knows better.

But, so far as I can tell, the confirmation of the existence of gravity waves is a confirmation of General Relativity, but also a confirmation — or at least not a falsification – of Beckmann’s gravity field as aether hypothesis. I am sure we will have considerable discussion on this in weeks to come.

bubbles

atom

atom

 

Wish I could go.

 

bubbles

I have said this before and I have seen no reason to change my view: Trump is not a Conservative as paleo conservatives understand the word, and he has no real conservative theories: he is a pragmatic populist in the tradition of Andrew Jackson or Herbert Hoover. He has no experience in governing, but he does have considerable experience in management including management of what would have been considered enormous projects not all that long ago. Reagan learned from governing California; Trump will not have that experience if he becomes President. He will discuss goals with potential managers and engineers, form some notion of the possibilities of success and the costs of failure, and choose those projects which he thinks will make us look great, get employment growing, etc. He does not try to look statesmanlike, but he can assume enough gravitas for the occasion when it arises. He will not be unintentionally rude. He knows he must enlist the services of people who don’t much like him; he has done that well in the past.

If you went by credentials, Jeb Bush is the most qualified; but you get his relatives and their friends with him, and that means the Republican Establishment and thus more of the same; and the country is sick of them. Both Democrats and Republicans have grown weary of what we have and want something different and new. No one asked Barrack the Magic Negro for blueprints of Hope and Change, and he hadn’t even managed the construction of a big building.

When I was growing up we were taught in sixth grade that Democrats wanted “tariff for revenue only;” Republicans wanted protective tariff to keep manufacturing – and jobs – at home. Abraham Lincoln said of tariff, if he buys a shirt from England, he gets the shirt but the money leaves the country and pays wages to Englishmen; if he buys it from a US manufacturer, he has the shirt, and the money stays in America, paying American workers. This is, according to Ricardo, far too simple an analysis; but it appeals to reason. American goods may cost more without overseas competition, but the money and jobs stay/ cheaper goods are not always appealing to those who have no jobs to give then wages, and must rely in government to pay them for not working; and a sizeable number of “workers” resent being on the unemployment role and getting welfare aid.

The US establishment went to war in 1940, and suddenly produced tanks, rifles, airplanes, trucks, bandages, ammunition, cargo ships and battleships; when the American people rose up they drowned Germany and Japan in war materiel. The German war machine used animal drawn transport to supply much of the Wehrmacht; The United States turned the last cavalry regiments into mechanized units and the Red Ball Express that supplied Patton. I used mules to plow cotton fields during World War II; but our soldiers did not depend on mules for ammunition. If all our plants had been in Frankfurt instead of Detroit, the outcome might have been different.

That, I believe, is how Trump sees things.

bubbles

NSS Pays Tribute to Late NSS Governor Dr. Marvin Minsky, A Pioneer in Artificial Intelligence

(Washington DC, February 11, 2016)  The National Space Society pays tribute to Dr. Marvin Minsky, a pioneer of artificial intelligence, who served as a long-time member of the NSS Board of Governors, and was involved in the original merger of the L5 Society and the National Space Institute to create the National Space Society.  Dr. Minsky was very involved in early NSS activities and was part of many NSS space policy projects such as the 1981 “Citizens Advisory Council on National Space Policy.” He attended Board of Governors meetings and participated in NSS’s annual International Space Development Conference.® He died on January 14 in Boston from a cerebral hemorrhage. He was 88 years old.
Marvin was also the thesis advisor for current NSS Governor K. Eric Drexler, a pioneer in the field of nanotechnology and an early activist who helped start NSS.

Hugh Downs, Chair of the NSS Board of Governors, said, “Marvin Minsky was a bright light in the arena of accelerating knowledge in modern physics. Where many of us plodded along to keep up with these changes, he seemed to always manage to be even with them. He will be sorely missed by those who worked with him and knew him well.” 

Marvin Minsky was Toshiba Professor of Media Arts and Sciences, and Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His research led to both theoretical and practical advances in artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, neural networks, the theory of Turing Machines and recursive functions. He made other contributions in the domains of graphics, symbolic mathematical computation, knowledge representation, computational semantics, machine perception, and both symbolic and connectionist learning. He was also involved with advanced technologies for exploring space.

In October 2015, the MIT Media Lab presented Marvin with a gift in honor of his lifetime commitment to MIT students. “What a beautiful thing. What does it do?” he asked, when studying the world’s first 3D-printed clear glass object. View the presentation here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tIIe3NnodU .

The report from the Citizens Advisory Council, in which Marvin participated, was titled Space: The Crucial Frontier and includes this preamble:
“Space is potentially our most valuable national resource. A properly developed space program can go far toward restoring national pride while developing significant and possibly decisive military and economic advantages. In exploring space we will rediscover frontiers and more than frontiers; we can rediscover progress. The exploitation of space will have far reaching historical significance. The statesmen who lead mankind permanently to space will be remembered when Isabella the Great and Columbus are long forgotten.” (http://www.nss.org/settlement/L5news/1981-council.htm)

Today, NSS is vigorously promoting our expansion into space.  We are engaging with the international community via collaborations, tracks at our annual International Space Development Conference, and articles in Ad Astra and in major international publications. NSS volunteers today maintain the Space Settlement Nexus (www.nss.org/settlement) in carrying forward Marvin Minsky’s vision. 

###

I was one of the founding members of NSS, and For years was Secretary of the L5 Society.

bubbles

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GjETv16T1Io/Vrsefnpk3yI/AAAAAAAABwM/-BWIPHdsITU/s1600/TWBWv9_480.jpg

 

There Will Be War Volume IX

After Armageddon

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South Carolina New Poll Data

Jerry,

There’s been a dearth of new poll data out of South Carolina since before Iowa, a lifetime in politics. As of then, the RealClearPolitics.Com (RCP) average had Trump 36%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 13%, Bush 10%, Carson 9%, Kasich 2%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html

Most of the “Polls Say” stories currently out there are based on this obsolete data, and can be safely ignored. (Though keep an eye on RCP over the coming days, as new polls are no doubt in the works – but pay more attention to the actual new polls than to the average, until the old polls have rolled out of it!)

Today we finally have the first post-NH poll data out of SC (via Bill Kristol, though unofficial and with caveats): Trump 32%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 20%, Bush 10%, Carson 7%, Kasich 2%.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/sc-poll-trump-32-cruz-26-rubio-20-bush-10/article/2001032

So (assuming Kristol isn’t being played or the poll isn’t an outlier) over the last three weeks in SC Trump lost some ground, Cruz closed to within striking distance, and Rubio moved up to a solid third place.

Meanwhile Bush, Carson, and Kasich largely held on to what they had (but absent major gains what they had is likely to not be very relevant.)

My chief takeaway today: The SC Republican insurgent vote looks to be 65% (Trump, Cruz, Carson) even without trying to figure out how much of Rubio’s support is Tea Party types going along (for now) with his two-lane bid for establishment support.

New Hampshire’s 49% Rep establishment turnout (arguably less given Rubio’s 10% included in it) may be their high-water mark for this campaign. Iowa’s and now South Carolina’s two-thirds insurgent majorities may be the rule.

If so, I’m thinking that the Republican establishment needs to begin seriously considering which flavor of insurgency will be best for the country overall, and make their peace. My take is, they’ll survive that a lot better over the long run than if they throw the race to whoever they think best for themselves in the short run.

Porkypine

I have no significant quarrel with your analysis.

bubbles

Talk Like Reagan

The following is extracted from a piece called “How to Win the White House and Save the World: Don’t Talk of Reagan. Talk Like Reagan.”

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/361326.php (Ace of Spades HQ, via Instapundit)

The point made here strikes me as both highly explanatory of the current race and profoundly important. Read the whole thing, but the heart of it is here:

– begin quote –

There is a principle called the 80/20 principle. You surely know it: 20% of the work produces 80% of the gains. But the next 80% of the work only produces the last 20% of the gains.

Trump is being taken seriously because he’s not forgetting the most important thing: to tell people

* This will make you freer.

* This will make you safer.

* This will make you richer.

* This will make you happier.

* This will make a better world for your children.

That’s 20% of politics. He doesn’t do the 80%, the hard thinking about policy, the homework, because he’s a little lazy.

Yet his 20% is producing that magical 80% of the benefits, whereas many other candidates are focusing on the 80% that only gets you the 20%.

Everyone can beat Trump.

They just have to re-read Reagan, look at those beautiful words, each so simple but so perfect, and how, after every single policy proposal, Reagan explained to you:

* This will make you freer.

* This will make you safer.

* This will make you richer.

* This will make you happier.

* This will make a better world for your children.

Trump is doing the 20% and getting the 80% because he can’t really do more than that 20%. That’s really all he has.

But other candidates, who know the whole 100%, are getting bogged down in the 80% that gets you the 20%.

Anyone can beat Trump.

All it takes is speaking like Reagan.

– end quote –

Porkypine

I doubt whether Franklin Roosevelt knew how to loft an airplane or build a bombsight. Oy, have you studied Huey Long’s career? Speaking like Reagan is not trivial; having participated in some of the efforts to write speeches for him, I can assure you of that. Most career Sergeants Major know far more how to do things than their officers; and smart officers know this, and are advised on what can and cannot be done; but they seldom rise to command.

Trump says this will make YOU happier; I’m already happy.

Like the county roads commissioner who kept winning election although there was a weird road snaking through the hollows forty miles to make it easier for him to get to town – and ran on a platform of “I’ve got my road. I’ll build the ones you need.”

bubbles

While I was rummaging around in the Beyond Belief cupboard

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/obama-signs-two-executive-orders-on-cybersecurity/ar-BBpizIj?ocid=ansmsnnews11

As a Cybersecurity guy that has worked in this field for more years than I care to count, this says it all:

“…Obama created two new entities as part of a $19 billion budget proposal to Congress on cybersecurity: The first, a Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity, will be made up of business, technology, national security and law enforcement leaders who will make recommendations to strengthen online security in the public and private sectors. It will deliver a report to the president by Dec. 1….”

And:

“The second, a Federal Privacy Council, will bring together chief privacy officers from 25 federal agencies to coordinate efforts to protect the vast amounts of data the federal government collects and maintains about taxpayers and citizens.”

$19 Billion dollars for a bunch of people who are probably mostly incompetent or at a minimum focused on their own varied agendas to produce “A REPORT BY DECEMBER 1.” 

And the second group is the set of dumbasses that failed in the first place.  You are going to keep them on staff and pay them MORE money!?!?

Good grief.  $19 Billion … and all they produce is a report in just under a YEAR.  $19 Billion would fix ALL their problem systems, upgrade them, put in state of the art security systems and train users.

One more COLOSSAL waste of money.

What they need is some competent System Architects and Security people.  But they won’t hire them, they’ll hire by cronyism.

Trace

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Nuclear winter rides again

Dear Dr. Pournelle,
It appears that nuclear winter, which we haven’t heard about in years , is once again saddling up as a theory.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/opinion/lets-end-the-peril-of-a-nuclear-winter.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
I need a sanity check; they claim that detonating 50 Hiroshima-size bombs (10 kt) would generate enough smoke and so forth to cause climate change for decades. 
The thought that springs to my mind is: Wait a moment.  Weren’t the conventional thousand-bomber raids which, on a nightly basis, incinerated Cologne, Dresden, Osaka, Tokyo on a par with the damage done to Hiroshima by one bomb?  It wasn’t that Hiroshima was especially atrocious or the destruction exceptional compared to  what conventional bombers did; it’s that it only took one airplane to do the job. 
I would like to take their models and run them against a conventional bombing raid of the sort that was common in both Europe and the pacific from 1944 and 1945, then compare against what climatological results actually occurred.
Respectfully,

Brian P.

bubbles

My former student asks a good question

Rohrabacher: Why Is America Restarting the Cold War With Russia?

<http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-restarting-the-cold-war-russia-15183?page=show>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Russia, WWIII

I’ve mentioned the possibility of another world war for some time.

Comparatively recently, I mentioned the Gulf State force and the declaration made by that Saudi general that they were ready to go to Syria. Well, Russia did not take kindly to their offer:

<.>

Russia issued a stark warning of the potential consequences. “The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war?” its prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper in an interview due to be published on Friday but released on Thursday night.

“It would be impossible to win such a war quickly, especially in the Arab world, where everybody is fighting against everybody.

“All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table instead of unleashing a new world war.”

</>

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12153112/Russia-warns-of-new-world-war-starting-in-Syria.html

One of the flash-points I raised was the Middle East; the others are the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Korean Peninsula. I predicted simultaneous conflicts in three of those four areas would lead to a situation where a third world war would be a major concern if not an inevitable crisis.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Putin thinks of us in the Balkans, where we took the anti-Slavic side and bombed hell out of Serbs, dropped the Danube bridges, and generally made them miserable. Imperial Russia went to war to save the Serbs from Austria; why do we think the Russian people have forgotten that they are leaders of the pan-Slavic movement?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwqdOhF6LhE

bubbles

The U.S. Military Suffers from Affluenza.

<http://www.unz.com/article/the-u-s-military-suffers-from-affluenza/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

So do our universities.

bubbles

Ideologues as Journalists

In another example of an ideologue convincing some managers and swathes of the general public they’re really journalists:

<.>

MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” host Joe Scarborough Thursday momentarily blamed GOP candidate Marco Rubio’s “dirty money” for pushing GOP presidential rival Chris Christie’s numbers down to fourth place in the New Hampshire primary and his eventual decision to drop out of the race, a slip that could add fuel to the growing complaints about the morning show.

</>

https://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Joe-Scarborough-Rubio-Dark-Money-Chrisie/2016/02/11/id/713833/

What is this clown even speaking of? What dirty money? How did this “dirty money” do what he’s saying? What is this madness? This is what passes for news programming in 2016? I’d expect to see this kind of crap in some backwater with limited access to electricity not in the United States.

He might as well accuse Rubio of sending evil spirits to destroy Christie’s electoral support.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

bubbles

Subject: the gravity-wave article from PhysRevLett

https://journals.aps.org/prl/pdf/10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.061102
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

http://www.sciencealert.com/live-update-big-gravitational-wave-announcement-is-happening-right-now
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

bubbles

I am OUTRAGED by what this French woman describes has happened to her, her family, and her city in France.

Resident of Calais speaks. This is the death of civilization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKAQX74yRyc

I’d title this, “The Rape of Calais”. And their own government is as much at fault as the 18,000 “migrants”, aka Muslims.

After seeing this does *ANYBODY* think we do not need a second amendment or even do not need to exercise our second amendment to its fullest?

{o.o}

Sound familiar?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-a-cooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Driving

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Sunday I broke a tooth, Monday was devoured by locusts and fiction, and Tuesday I spent the day at the dentist. No serious problem other than lost time and the finances, but it was annoying. The good news is I drove there, in my SUV, by myself and navigated from the parking lot to the dentist with a cane, not a walker. To those for whom this is a regular event, I can only advise you to be thankful, and contemplate that some years from now that ability may be a big deal; it certainly was for me.

Saturday night I went down to Author Services/ Galaxy Press, as a guest; they were doing a dramatic reading of L Ron Hubbard (writing as Rene Lafayette): the first Ole Doc Methuselah story, published in Astounding Science Fiction in 1947; I read it when it came out. I was in Christian Brothers College High School in Memphis at the time. The Brothers pretended not to notice I had Astounding inside one or another text book. Roberta wasn’t feeling quite up to going out, and I wasn’t daring enough to drive at night – still am not – so Michelle drove me in her car. Goo performances. Good show all around.

Having used up the day at the dentist, I’m obviously going to be brief.

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The New Hampshire primary has one glaring lesson: Neither the Republican nor the Democratic voters are very interested in returning business as usual to power. An aging Independent Socialist Senator bested – thumped – Hillary, Mr. Trump won first place among the Republicans, and while Kasich was an unexpected second on the Republican side. The top three traditional Republicans together did not out-draw Trump even with a record turn-out. I wonder if the RNC got the message, and how they will act on it; probably by doubling down on their support for Jeb Bush.

In normal times, Bush would seem the most attractive candidate; his problem is that with Jeb Bush you get all his relatives, and all of their friends; you get the Republicans who got us in this mess in the first place. That, I think, just won’t do. Of course I am prejudiced; I was a Reagan Republican Party County Chairman, and Bush The First promised “Read my lips. No new taxes.” Then he fired every Reagan supporter he could find in the Executive Branch within hours of being inaugurated, and agreed to new taxes. Read my hips…

I notice that Jeb is bringing his mother to his campaign.

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It’s late. I have a lot of interesting mail and hope to get some of it up tomorrow. I also have more on modern technology. Volume Nine of The There Will Be War anthologies will be released this week. Like all of the TWBW series, there is an introductory essay, and introductions to each story, all by me; as well as other non fiction. Volume Nine was compiled as the USSR was reeling, and the world watched: would USSR break up peacefully, or would there be nuclear war launched in the death throes?  Om Amazon sometime this week.  Look for it.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Recuperation continues; RIP Ed Mitchell; What happened to the Middle Class; some economic data.

Chaos Manor View, Wednesday, February 03, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

 

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

James Burnham

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I have been working on fiction all day; I was interrupted by a lack of laundry soap, and Roberta still reluctant to undertake outside expeditions, so I decided to try it: it was a beautiful day, I feel fine, and I drove my ancient SUV the few blocks to the local store. There were no incidents. I do not think I will try to drive at night, but I am now confident that I can do small routine errands.

I’m making much progress on other work; apparently I am completely recovered from my bronchitis. Roberta is recovering from pneumonia, slower that she would like, but quite well. We are approaching normality – at least as much as Chaos Manor ever approaches normality.

 

I have just finished a Preface to the 2016 edition of There Will Be War Volume Nine: After Armageddon.  Originally published in 1989, this edition will be released as an eBook next week.

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RIP Ed Mitchell
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/astronaut-edgar-mitchell-6th-man-moon-dies-florida-n512511

Dave Kenny

When I was President of the Science Fiction Writers of America about 1973, one of my duties was to arrange the annual Nebula Awards presentation. At that time we gave a dramatic presentations Nebula, and I was able to enlist the support of the Hollywood studios for the event. They bought several tables and gave us some money to hire a name speaker; not much money, but Dr. Ed Mitchell, sixth man on the Moon, agreed to come down and present the awards as well as make a keynote speech. I don’t have a transcript; this was years before personal computers and easy copies of documents. We got him to come without a fee because he was an admirer of science fiction and thought it important.

He was also involved in ESP research, partly at Stanford; these were the days of Dr. Joseph Rhine, who had been experimenting with ESP since 1928, and Rhine Card experiments were very popular on college campuses: with tens of thousands of unsupervised experiments it is statistically certain that some improbable events would occur—after all, if the odds are 100 to 1 against something and you run the experiment 200 times—but Ed was not a naïve believer, at least when I met him; he hoped it was all true, but he was fairly rigorous in his experimental protocols.

I didn’t know him for long or all that closely, but I was impressed, and I have been rather glad that someone of that stature has been warning us that we don’t know everything. The US government spent some $10 million dollars on remote viewing research; given the value of the payoff if it had been successful, I cannot quarrel with that appropriation, even if the final conclusion was that they had found no useful results. Ed Mitchell was heavily into remote viewing, but the experiments he conducted were fairly rigorous in protocol, not stunts. The results, as have been all the results of that sort of experiment, were ambiguous at best and not repeatable.

I’ve had no contact with Dr. Mitchell for decades; I gather he was still interested in weird experimentation; but so far as I know he was quite rational about it. We need a few people of stature to head such to introduce rationality and some rigor in testing the limits of our knowledge; or I have always believed so. Requiescat in Pace.

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Think of this as a substitute essay by me; not that I agree with everything in it, but much is self evident and draws intelligent conclusion about the strange phenomena we are experiencing.

 

Erosion Of The US Middle Class

By Porkypine

 

Jerry,

In the recent Iowa caucuses, of the people motivated enough to show up, 50% of Democrats (Sanders) and 66% of Republicans (Cruz, Trump, Carson, Paul) voted for candidates who are explicitly running against the current Establishment. Moreover, in recent Rasmussen polls, 67% of US likely voters are somewhat-to-very angry about Federal government policies, and 81% think the Feds are somewhat-to-very corrupt.

I recently listened to a Bernie Sanders stump speech and found myself surprised. I agree with him on the problem: The US middle class has been under prolonged attack, is already seriously damaged, and it’s only getting worse. (Mind, the moment Sanders started proposing solutions, I was reminded of H.L.Mencken: “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong”.)

Given the modest but real chance that an anti-establishment candidate who actually means it will wake up in the White House a year from now, a quick review of the US middle class’s actual problems and some practical solutions is in order. Much of this will be rehashing of to-us obvious points, some of it perhaps not. I don’t have time to make this definitive anyway – I’ll be happy if it merely starts wiser heads thinking more thoroughly.

First, though, let me digress briefly to WHY fixing this erosion of the US middle class is vital. Recently, I wrote you about the role of a healthy middle-class majority in making democracy a stable and practical form of government. My main thrust was Western elites’ destructive foolishness in pushing democracy in places where it would predictably lead to some flavor of one-man-one-vote-once tyranny, but in the buildup I mentioned this:

“My take is, what actually makes for the stable prosperous societies many in the West currently take WAY too much for granted is middle-class rule, not democracy per se, with ‘middle class’ defined as those who tend to plan for their next generation, not just for their next week.”

“Consider the US, where the vote was originally pretty much restricted to settled property owners, and the Founders agreed “there never was a democracy that didn’t commit suicide.” We continued to do OK as the franchise was expanded for so long as this coincided with the expansion of a reasonably informed and forethoughtful middle class. Now that we’ve spent a couple generations simultaneously destroying our educational system and insisting that anyone who draws breath (and many who don’t) should vote, things are getting a bit dicey.”

My take here is, it isn’t just overseas where our self-appointed betters in the bipartisan establishment elite are screwing up. They’ve also spent decades imposing destructive policies on us here at home. Now, finally, what’s left of the country’s real ruling class, our middle class, seems to be catching wise, and we may – may – have one last chance to fix things before we’re history.

The Problem

I think it comes down to six things: Spending, taxation, regulation, education, and expectations. The sixth thing? A horrible result of these first five (though they do damage in other ways too.) To quote that eminent natural philosopher James Carville, “it’s the economy, stupid!”

Since the housing bust, GDP annual growth has been just over 2% – half the average rate for post-WW II recoveries. Unemployment is only “low”  because so many have given up looking, and of the jobs available, far too few are full-time at wages that will actually support a minimal middle class existence.

But that’s pretty abstract. I deal with the blue-collar lower margins of our middle class a lot. A few are doing OK, most are hanging on by their fingernails, and every year a few more fall off the edge. When they do, it tends to be ugly. The “safety nets” don’t help as much as you might think, as these are designed for stable clients. People whose lives have just exploded but who aren’t yet resigned to clientude can fall a long long way and hit very hard indeed.

More patches to the safety net won’t save our republic. We must remove a lot of the accumulated progressive dreck that makes it so hard to hang on in the first place. [emphasis added by JEP]

Spending

Federal revenues as a fraction of GDP seem prone to stabilize at around 18%, regardless of nominal tax rates, since shortly after WW II.

Revenue sees temporary peaks in boom times, temporary drops during busts, but always returning to the same ~18%. (I wouldn’t go so far as to call this some sort of natural law, mind – it’s more likely a matter of a natural inflection in the curve of American resistance to paying more taxes.)

18% of an $18 trillion GDP is a lot of money. Unfortunately, over the last eight years, Federal spending has averaged almost 22% of GDP (21% in 2015, but alas rising again from 2014.)

This level of spending has been sustained since the Dems lost control of Congress in 2010 by amazingly unscrupulous maneuvering – Harry Reid’s deliberate crippling of the normal Congressional budget process, and see also the recent revelation that Treasury knew all along how to avoid default in the various “shutdown” confrontations with Congress – IE, the White House threats of disastrous default were barefaced lies.

Assuming Republican control of both Congress and the White House next year, one of the first things to watch for is whether they get serious about bringing Federal spending swiftly back under 18% of GDP. It will be ugly, it will be painful, but it’s vital.

Taxation

Overt taxation at the bottom margins of the middle class is currently quite low. In fact, go low enough and EITC makes it outright negative – albeit on a one-“refund”-per-year basis that encourages a jackpot mindset unconducive to working back up into the middle class. This is worth fixing – if we’re going to subsidize lower-income workers with families anyway, we might as well figure out a way to do it per-paycheck instead.

Get into the broad middle of the middle class, and overt taxation rises to a substantial slice. Outrageous, no, but substantial. This is probably inevitable as long as we insist on government continuing to do most of the things it currently does, as the middle class is still where the bulk of of the money is. We’ll be lucky to succeed in stopping further national debt growth and paying for the middle-class entitlements we’re already committed to. Significant middle-class tax relief on top of that probably can’t happen until we have quite a few high GDP-growth years behind us.

Covert taxation is another matter entirely. There are any number of things that, by government policy, we pay a great deal more for as soon as we start putting some daylight between ourselves and the official poverty line.

Some of this is obvious: The various explicit subsidies for the government-client underclass that go away fast as income rises. It’s not news that there’s significant pressure at the lower margin to just give up and slide into being a government client rather than continue struggling to be an independent citizen. Tinkering at the margins can actually be quite effective here, as witness the ’90’s welfare reform.

A bit subtler is Obama care, where the majority of the middle class is only now discovering that it’s us paying for all the new mandatory expanded benefits, via outrageously higher premiums for anyone moderately healthy who’s above the not-very-high subsidy cutoff. A free market in insurance, plus a formally subsidized high-risk pool, would get rid of this covert taxation, and allow rational decisions on both how much coverage we need, and on how much charity, how paid for, we can actually afford.

Other examples abound, any place the government mandates that we buy more than we might otherwise choose. Now, many of these we might not want to change. For instance, I find modern auto crash-worthiness quite comforting, compared to some of the deathtraps I drove when I was younger. (Modern fuel-economy standards, on the other hand, I think have led to all sorts of pernicious nonsense.) But, my opinions aside, all such mandates should be reviewed for which are cost-effective in terms of supporting the overall well-being of our average citizens, and which aren’t, with ruthless pruning of the latter.

Regulation

The regulatory metastasization-induced cratering of the small-business startup rate and (related) of overall economic growth has obvious implications for availability of middle-class jobs. Housing is also made more expensive by a range of government policies – largely local till recently, but increasingly national, with multiple new federal power grabs by the current administration underway.

There’s also the regulatory drag on individual initiative. If I start a craft guitar shop, will I go to jail for importing the wrong exotic wood? And on political participation – do my chances of going to jail for importing the wrong wood go up if I donate to the wrong cause?

Overall, regulation greatly overlaps with the “covert taxation” I’ve already described. One solution is the same: An ongoing review for which regulations are cost-effective in terms of supporting the overall well-being of our average citizens, and which aren’t, with an effective mechanism for removal of those that don’t make the cut. Another

solution: Mandatory sunset period for all new regulations. Another: No new regulation becomes final without resubmission to the Congress for an up-or-down vote.

The US middle class can’t afford Federal bunny inspectors any more.

Multiply that by a thousand and cut, and it’d be a start.

Education

The nationalization and homogenization of US education to provide full employment for a politically-connected credentialed educrat class whose fads and fashions are increasingly unconnected to actual learning has been well covered elsewhere, and the solutions are generally obvious.

Painful and politically difficult, but obvious.

My major beef here is that basic teaching of children HOW to be middle-class has been not just neglected but actively sabotaged. The basic math skills to plan ahead, the basic logic skills to spot deceptive sales pitches, the basic historical knowledge to spot political knavery, the basic practical and technical skills to work productively, the basic personal discipline to apply all of these to leading a stable and decent life – the parts of our middle class strong enough to pass these skills on in-family survive, while those at the margins crumble ever faster into government clienthood.

Let’s not even mention US higher education coming to combine the worst aspects of debt-peonage and Maoist reeducation camps. Some things are just too depressing.

Expectations

Curated this, organic that, free-range food, helicopter-parented over-scheduled designer kids – all these elite establishment cultural expectations hugely increase the cost of having a middle-class family.

It’s easy to dismiss all this as passing upper-class faddism – but increasingly it’s being applied to all by government mandate. As witness, parents being charged with neglect for allowing kids to walk to school alone, or schools being forced to switch to “healthy” foods the kids won’t eat (with the definition of “healthy” changing like the wind.) Much is curable faddism, of course – minimum “acceptable” houses growing ever larger, minimum acceptable media access growing ever more immersive, frenetic, and expensive.

Cultural counterpressure is the answer, of course, though blest if I know how to produce that. Beyond, that is, writing screeds like this and hoping for the best.

Porkypine

 

I note with interest that while Newt Gingrich – who, after all, as Speaker was able to get a balanced budget from Clinton – has not exactly endorsed Mr. Trump but has taken him seriously and has not joined the ritual attack machine.  As I say, I find it interesting.  And I do not expect Mr. Trump to tell me a lot of technical details; he will accomplish his goals (or not) the way leaders have always accomplished goals – by ordering them done by people he has a reasonable expectation of having the ability to do them, and seeing that they have the requisite resources.  He could not tell you how he built Trump Tower; and few of you could do so either.

 

You say we should not mention the utter destruction of the free public education system that took this nation from farmers to a middle class as our vanished apprentice system made for a blue collar middle class; but it is important. We cannot thrive if the cost of an education is a lifetime of debt.  We do not owe our academic masters a lifetime of luxury which they “perform” by abusing academic “adjuncts” and other minions. I agree that the system which produced me – financed by the Korean War GI Bill – was deliberately sabotaged, and credentialism has made essential a gang of academic thugs called administrators as well as given faculty. once accustomed to an adequate but not luxurious life, poppycock dreams which have been fulfilled.

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The Ministry of Empty Gestures Wants You

Dear Jerry:

What do Al Gore , Darth Vader and the Animal Legal Defense League have in common ?

An advertising consortium with enough clout to commandeer the Eiffel Tower

http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2016/02/now-all-they-need-is-secret-handshake.html

Shades of Kornbluth and Max Headroom !

Russell  Seitz

Fellow of the Department of Physics Harvard University  

 

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Sunday Evening:

 

You’ll see this again:

 

by the numbers 

Seen on twitter

Embedded image permalink

 

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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