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View 703 Monday, November 28, 2011

I had a number of panels at LOSCON this weekend. One was a 20^th Anniversary consideration of FALLEN ANGELS by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, and Michael Flynn. There’s a Kindle Edition. I thought there was a print edition still available as a new book, but I haven’t found one, which is a bit of a surprise to me.

The Kindle edition is quite readable, but despite its appearance this isn’t a pitch to sell books. The premise of Fallen Angels was that climate is returning to the 100,000 year cooling cycle interrupted by the warming period that began ten to twenty thousand years ago.

Approximately every 100,000 years Earth’s climate warms up temporarily. These warm periods, called interglacial periods, appear to last approximately 15,000 to 20,000 years before regressing back to a cold ice age climate. At year 18,000 and counting our current interglacial vacation from the Ice Age is much nearer its end than its beginning.

Global warming during Earth’s current interglacial warm period has greatly altered our environment and the distribution and diversity of all life. For example:

Approximately 15,000 years ago the earth had warmed sufficiently to halt the advance of glaciers, and sea levels worldwide began to rise.

By 8,000 years ago the land bridge across the Bering Strait was drowned, cutting off the migration of men and animals to North America from Asia.

Since the end of the Ice Age, Earth’s temperature has risen approximately 16 degrees F and sea levels have risen a total of 300 feet! Forests have returned where once there was only ice.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

Something in the panel – Niven and me, with John Hertz as interviewer/moderator – got me thinking about the book Niven and I are doing. Then came another panel that got me thinking further along those lines, and this morning I saw reports of a New York Times article about Democratic Party strategy for the upcoming election, which in essence was to abandon the productive class in order to get all the votes of a coalition of the unproductive (those in need, on welfare, who want extension of unemployment, more food stamps, etc.) and Government Employees, teachers unions, and so forth. A different strategy to win political office that almost explicitly pits the unproductive against the productive in the name of fair play. This reminded me powerfully of Atlas Shrugged, and that got me thinking about the structure of our novel, and precisely what stories we want to tell in it (as with Hammer it’s a big multi-viewpoint novel). Of course this is an article by a party strategist.

Then Peter Flynn got me to do a long interview on the theme of ‘Why Science Fiction?’. I had to think on that. Why does science fiction exist, or why do I write it, or—. Anyway, one of the purposes of science fiction is warning; what Robert Heinlein called the “If this goes on—“ story. And of course it got me thinking about just why Niven and I are doing so much work on this book. No one but a blockhead writes except for money, but few writers including Dr. Johnson ever wrote just for money.

Then this morning I got this mail:

Climategate 2.0

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204452104577059830626002226.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

Wonder how long it will take this house of cards to fall?

Phil

Of course I have a lot of mail on Climategate 2.0 but this came just as I was thinking about incentives for Atlas not merely to shrug but to get his gun. What happens after Atlas Shrugged? Anyway, that’s one reason why this place is just a bit sparse lately. Thanks to all of you who subscribed, and particularly my Patrons and Platinum Club members, I can take a day off to think about what stories Niven and I can tell.

Suppose the Ice is coming back, or there is credible evidence of it; and suppose that can be prevented, but it’s a long term project, not something you can do overnight. You’ll need – well, that’s part of the story. But what happens after Atlas shrugs?

I have the last of my diabetes control classes at Kaiser this afternoon, so I have to cut this short. When I get back I’ll put together a mailbag, and I owe BYTE and all of you a new Chaos Manor Reviews column, and great heavens, there’s no lack of things to use me energies, but one reason one writes is to have written – there’s considerable satisfaction in saying that’s done, ship it! – and I am way behind on it all. I thought I was dancing as fast as I can, but perhaps I can pick the pace just a bit more.

I see that the Mayor of LA gave the Occupy LA people a deadline of midnight last night to get off the public square, but they aren’t doing it. The regulators have declared much of their free food preparation effort illegal, which spills over to other charity operations such as very long standing soup kitchens and school bake sales; using regulators to do the job of riot police can cast a long shadow.

If no one believes in a republic, it will fall to someone who does believe in his cause. When people are weary and without hope, then perhaps they are ready for an Akbar or Charlemagne, if they are fortunate enough to find one. I wonder if anyone reads people like John Stuart Mill any longer? And of course in searching for Charlemagne they may find Fidel Castro.

We have apparently come down to protests over the right to protest, and victory consists of being able to stay on the public square. That’s victory? But now I have to sort through today’s mail, have lunch, and get out to Kaiser for my final class. More tonight.

I am reminded that I have not given the explanation of the Texas/Wisconsin education statistics seeming paradox. First thing tomorrow. It’s a good story, there’s no paradox at all (although one has to accept a politically incorrect fact to resolve it), and it will help me avoid getting into the Cain mess until we know whether there is any connection between the latest woman and Axelrod.

I posted this Thursday. This is a repeat:

I will give you one fact to ponder over the weekend.

Some Teachers Unions have pointed out that the average grade and high school performances in Wisconsin, which has teachers unions, are higher than the corresponding averages in Texas, which is a right to work state. This is true. The average student performance in Wisconsin is higher than the average student performance in Texas.

It is also true that the average black student performance in Texas is higher than black student performance in Wisconsin. The average Hispanic student performance in Texas is higher than the average Hispanic student performance in Wisconsin. The average white (non-Latino) student performance in Texas is higher than the average white (non-Latino) student performance in Wisconsin. The three classes are collectively exhaustive.

These facts are true, and they are not contradictory although they may appear to be. We’ll talk more about this next week, but if you are moved to comment I’m listening.

View 702 Friday, November 25, 2011

I will be all day Saturday at LOSCON, and I am trying to catch up on stuff today.

Today’s Wall Street Journal has “Stringing up Gibson” by Kimberly Strossel (link) which details just what happens when you put the Nomenklatura in charge by giving them regulatory laws or expanding regulatory power. The 2008 expansion of the century old Lacey Act was intended to produce this result although I expect many of those who voted for it did not know that.

On a sweltering day in August, federal agents raided the Tennessee factories of the storied Gibson Guitar Corp. The suggestion was that Gibson had violated the Lacey Act—a federal law designed to protect wildlife—by importing certain India ebony. The company has vehemently denied that suggestion and has yet to be charged. It is instead living in a state of harassed legal limbo.

Which, let’s be clear, is exactly what its persecutors had planned all along. The untold story of Gibson is this: It was set up.

Most of the press coverage has implied that the company is the unfortunate victim of a well-meaning, if complicated, law. Stories note, in passing, that the Lacey Act was "expanded" in 2008, and that this has had "unintended consequences." Given Washington’s reputation for ill-considered bills, this might make sense.

Only not in this case. The story here is about how a toxic alliance of ideological activists and trade protectionists deliberately set about creating a vague law, one designed to make an example out of companies (like Gibson) and thus chill imports—even legal ones.

When you hand your affairs over to the Nomenklatura you can expect these results. (Nomenklatura or New Class. They ruled the USSR and its provinces.  We have created them in America and we are rapidly handing more power to them.)

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free. Why do we always act as if we have forgotten that?

Adam Smith told us that whenever two capitalists get together, their conversation turns to scheming on how they can get the government to restrict entry into their business, and thus reduce competition. The usual method is to introduce regulations that make it impossible to start a competitive business on a shoe string. Over time those schemes create a Nomenklatura that governs all, and makes lobbying more important than productivity or ingenuity.

The biggest result of the legal harassments of Microsoft was to convert the Microsoft District of Columbia office from a sales organization to a lobby. More lobbyists mean more revenue for the Nomenklatura, more parties for the staff, more campaign donations for the Members of Congress and the Senators. Even “good” lobbyists (i.e. ones advocating policies we approve of) raise the cost of doing business. This results in more regulation, which results in higher to prohibitive startup costs in any industry which can get the attention of the Nomenklatura (and you can always get that attention if your lobby budget is large enough), which results in reduced competitiveness, more pay for “compliance officers” who produce nothing, higher costs for the affected trade, and higher costs for the consumer. Eventually that drives jobs overseas, so the lobbyists then turn to restricting imports.

One of the simplest ways to end the Depression we are entering is to abolish many of the Federal regulatory agencies and give those powers to the states. Of course we won’t do anything like that. The lobbyists won’t let us.

Salve, Sclave.

I posted this Thursday. This is a repeat:

I will give you one fact to ponder over the weekend.

Some Teachers Unions have pointed out that the average grade and high school performances in Wisconsin, which has teachers unions, are higher than the corresponding averages in Texas, which is a right to work state. This is true. The average student performance in Wisconsin is higher than the average student performance in Texas.

It is also true that the average black student performance in Texas is higher than black student performance in Wisconsin. The average Hispanic student performance in Texas is higher than the average Hispanic student performance in Wisconsin. The average white (non-Latino) student performance in Texas is higher than the average white (non-Latino) student performance in Wisconsin. The three classes are collectively exhaustive.

These facts are true, and they are not contradictory although they may appear to be. We’ll talk more about this next week, but if you are moved to comment I’m listening.

Looking for a Christmas present for a Kindergarten or First grader? Teach them to read. Get Mrs. Pournelle’s reading program. Seventy half hour lessons and you won’t have to worry about the competence of the school system. http://www.readingtlc.com/ 

View 702 Thursday, November 24, 2011

THANKSGIVING DAY

Count your blessings. We still have many of them.

1030: Alex and Dana will be here shortly, with Rocko. I don’t suppose dogs actually anticipate future events, but they always enjoy playing together once Sable establishes her rules, which are that some toys are hers and not to be taken by visitors, but others can be regarded as community property. The categories change from time to time by some kind of logic that may date back to the wolves. Sable insists on being treated as a higher ranking wolf than any other dog in the house and that can lead to scrapping. I am sure this is of more interest to me than to you.

Have a great Thanksgiving.

I will give you one fact to ponder over the weekend.

Some Teachers Unions have pointed out that the average grade and high school performances in Wisconsin, which has teachers unions, are higher than the corresponding averages in Texas, which is a right to work state. This is true. The average student performance in Wisconsin is higher than the average student performance in Texas.

It is also true that the average black student performance in Texas is higher than black student performance in Wisconsin. The average Hispanic student performance in Texas is higher than the average Hispanic student performance in Wisconsin. The average white (non-Latino) student performance in Texas is higher than the average white (non-Latino) student performance in Wisconsin. The three classes are collectively exhaustive.

These facts are true, and they are not contradictory although they may appear to be. We’ll talk more about this next week, but if you are moved to comment I’m listening.

14:20 Alex and Dana actually came over as I was in the middle of writing that last paragraph. I had intended to post it this morning.

Since then we have set up the Thanksgiving dinner and the turkey is now roasting in the over; we have cleaned up the preparation clutter; we have had lunch; and all of us except Roberta who wasn’t feeling quite up to it have had a two mile walk. The dogs have been well behaved on the walk, but for some reason Sable decided that the pool is her drinking bowl and resented Rocko taking a drink. Her objections were verbal (I suppose a better word is vocal; Sable tries to talk and actually knows a few words, but I could hardly call it speech). I have finished the paragraph above describing the seeming paradox that Texas leads Wisconsin in average student performance in a set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, but Wisconsin leads Texas in over-all average student performance.

I remind you that I was serious in soliciting stories of what a Paladin could do to make things right. I warn you that I may use your incidents in upcoming stories.

Have a happy Thanksgiving.

There are two important topics to be covered, both generated by Newt Gingrich’s remarks at last night’s Republican candidates debate.

• A Strategy of Technology

• A Strategy of Immigration Control

Can water prevent dehydration?

I will not be able to get to either of them in detail today, but I will have essays on both; indeed, it is pretty clear that there is a real need for a revised version of The Strategy of Technology, by Stefan T. Possony, Jerry Pournelle, and Francis X. Kane. Dr. Possony was a former Intelligence Officer for Austria under Schuschnigg, for France after the anschluss, and then for the United States during World War II. When I met him he was a Senior Fellow for the Hoover Institution. Jerry Pournelle is me. Francis X. Kane is a retired Air Force Colonel, Ph.D. , and Director of Plans for General Schriever. When we wrote the book he was still a serving officer so his name does not appear on the published edition. The book was used as a text in all three US service academies and at two of the service War Colleges, and is said to have been influential in cold war planning policy. Mr. Gingrich has read it and has discussed it with me more than once. It is very much oriented to the Cold War threat, and most of the examples are from that era. The principles remain true and applicable, but both the original edition and the revisions were intended to be applicable to the Cold War. It needs a new edition applicable to the present era. I am reminded of this because in the Republican Candidate debate Mr. Gingrich, asked about defense policy and budget cuts, made it clear that his policy would be a strategy of technology to make the military more cost/effective.

For a fuller disquisition on The Strategy of Technology, see my essay with that title. When I was part of the team that advised Newt from 1981 until he left the office of Speaker I knew him to be a hands-on Congressman (like Bob Walker who was one of Newt’s team) who understood the matters he was dealing with. I met Newt originally when he telephoned me (having got my phone number form my publisher) to discuss A Step Farther Out . He had just been elected to the 6th District of Georgia and he wanted to discuss the book. We became friends, and I found he was quite serious about technology and space development. Clearly he still is.

If I were to wait until I could do a full revision of Strategy of Technology we might be a very long time; so next week I will try to do a brief essay on the application of a strategy of technology to our current strategic situation, and what might be some of the outcomes of that. Actually that is pretty well what the new book Niven and I are doing is all about, so it is not a shift of mental gears, and in the process of explaining it I will probably be able to generate scenes for the book, thus growing two crops on one field. A good use of my time.

The Immigration Issue

The second essay I need to write is a rational inquiry into immigration policy. One of Newt’s problems is that he assumes his listeners have thought about problems and have seen the obvious. That is why he often says things that seem inexplicable to new analysts who do not think through problems nor even attempt to.

In the Republican debates Newt said something obvious without doing much preparation for the announcement, and without making clear the prior conditions. To Newt it is obvious that one controls the borders; if you don’t you are not a sovereign nation. He also knows that we will have some kind of “guest worker” program whether it is legal or not: the nation has changed since the days of Ozzie and Harriet and Father Knows Best, and whereas for a hundred years women’s liberation meant that women were free to stay home and not have to work outside the home, that all changed starting with World War II, and liberation came to mean equality very much including women working outside the home and having careers in academia and business. The result is a need for nannies and housekeepers. There is a need for agricultural workers, particularly seasonal. These two factors alone constitute a magnet for migrant workers. Closing the borders with barbed wire, electrified fences, drones, armored cars, watchtowers, troops with orders to shoot to kill – remember the Mexican goat herding boy shot by a Marine team at the border, and the flap THAT caused> — and other such measures is possible, but it is expensive, particularly so long as those and other magnets are in place.

But presume that all that works. The borders are controlled, probably by a combination of security measures using all appropriate technologies (sometimes the most appropriate technology is quite low tech, sometimes it is high tech, most often it’s a combination of both, perhaps combined with firepower). Once you have the borders secured what do you do with the 11 million illegal immigrants already here?

Now for gangsters of any age the answer is simple: get them out of here. They’re illegal, deport them. If their country of origin will not take them, bribe some foreign country to give them a visa. Get them out of here. Then there is a great number of more ambiguous cases. And on the other end of the spectrum comes Newt’s sudden speculation (he’s prone to examining the limits, something that all systems analysts are taught to do routinely). Take the case of a hard working family that has been here 25 years, never in trouble with the law, parents of citizens, grandparents of citizens: in the real world no one in their right mind want to deport Grandpa and Grandma whether they be from Latin America or Eastern Europe or West Africa. We aren’t going to do it, and it’s madness to assume we will. Since we are not going to deport them, what do we do? Well that implies that we think of some means to make them legal residents but not give them citizenship. And in the real world that’s about all we can do, and we all know it.

But most illegal immigrants are neither gangsters nor Grandpa Lorca. How do we decide who goes and who stays, once we have the borders secure and a reasonable guest worker program?

What everyone seems to have missed is that Newt speculated that perhaps we need thousands of local commissions, very like the Selective Service Commissions we formed back in the days of conscription. Greetings, a commission of your friends and neighbors has selected you — etc. He didn’t get very far with that speculation, but it preceded his remarks about what to do with Granma Lorca. It’s clear he was speculating and hadn’t thought this through very far, but since then I’ve given it some thought, and it’s a good starting place. We really do have to deal with the problem. There will be illegal immigrants who are neither gangsters nor pillars of the community. More on this another time.

But no one up on that stage would put Granma Lorca in handcuffs and shove her across the border into Tia Juana, and everyone knows that.

Incidentally, one of Newt’s observations is obvious: any immigrant graduate in any of the hard sciences should automatically be offered permanent residency. As Governor Perry put it, there ought to be a visa stapled to the degree certificate. I can’t think anyone would object to that. If we are going to implement a strategy of technology to get ourselves out of this mess – and we could do that – we will need smart people to implement that strategy. It is madness to send an MIT computer science graduate go back home to a foreign competitor if there is any chance of getting that graduate to stay and work here. Same goes for medical and most health care graduates.

One other obvious observation: if this were a serious country, we would not be wondering about Iranian and Iraqi oil. We would rely on our own resources and in a year we could have supplies and refineries. The difficulties in doing that are not technological. We can do it.

During World War II we built a liberty ship a day. Advanced fighter aircraft went from design board to operations in combat in under 150 days.(For those who doubt it, look up the history of the P-51.)  During the Depression we built Hoover Dam in about five years. We built the Empire State Building in not much more than a year. We supplied oil for England as well as America and carried it through submarine infested waters to get it there. We organized D-Day, the most complex operation in the history of the world, and carried it off despite facing Rommel and his beach defenses. Have we so degenerated that we can no longer do those things?

Energy and freedom could make this country great again. But we have to treat those matters seriously.

This week remains frantic. Roberta has a cold, and I have been advised to stay off my knee for a few days (twisted a ligament somehow) which means that neither of us have been getting out for a walk, which means that Sable has decided that she has been remiss in doing her job which is to be sure these humans she lives with get out for their exercise and also do the daily hunting for the pack, so she has decided to remind us, at fairly frequent intervals.

Meanwhile they are coming to remove the whacking big desiccation machine from my bathroom, and they’ll be back next week to put in new floor covering. It’s Chaotic at Chaos Manor.

You can view Strategy of Technology on line free, but if you want a pdf copy it is available. I also send a copy to new Platinum and Patron subscribers to this web site, so if you were thinking of becoming a patron of this site, that may be relevant information.

For a copy of Strategy of Technology in pdf format, go to http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2011/Q2/mail669.html and scroll down to the end, where you will find a button. I have tried to transfer this but I don’t know how, and I haven’t time to learn it. I am presuming that the old web site buttons still work. If not I’ll find another way, but the simplest way is to become a Patron subscriber. That works because I do it myself.  And now I have work.

Can Water Prevent Dehydration?

Not according to the European Union and its panel of 21 scientists. Of course there is some controversy.

Of course this is one more development of the rule of the Nomenklatura in Europe and the United States. It’s not enough for the regulators simply to take the money and do their jobs keeping the system running. The modern bureaucrat is educated, a college graduate (who has probably learned little of any use, but it’s the credential that counts) and feels compelled to contribute something. What better way than to be certain that his – or her – benighted subjects benefit from the wisdom of the Nomenklatura? Hence bunny inspectors, water doesn’t dehydrate, the streets fill with pothole – there’s nothing creative about filling a pothole, let’s look for something to do that reflects our superiority – and civilization spirals down in a morass of permits and regulations.

Query: if you were a paladin given the Low and Middle Justice and sent out to make the world better, what might you do? I can use some incidents of bureaucratic madness that could be corrected by someone with power and common sense. Send me your examples.  And now I really do have to work, but first I have some errands.