Equality; I won’t be going to the Space Command conference

View 718 Friday, March 30, 2012

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The demand for equality has two sources; one of them is among the noblest, the other is the basest of human emotions. The noble source is the desire for fair play. But the other source is the hatred of superiority. At the present moment it would be very unrealistic to overlook the importance of the latter.

There is in all men a tendency (only corrigible by good training from without and persistent moral effort from within) to resist the existence of what is stronger, subtler or better than themselves. In uncorrected and brutal small men this hardens into an implacable and disinterested hatred for every kind of excellence. . . .

Equality (outside mathematics) is a purely social conception. It applies to man as a political and economic animal. It has no place in the world of the mind. Beauty is not democratic; she reveals herself more to the few than to the many, more to the persistent and disciplined seekers than to the careless. Virtue is not democratic; she is achieved by those who pursue her more hotly than most men. Truth is not democratic; she demands special talents and special industry in those to whom she gives her favours.

Political democracy is doomed if it tries to extend its demand for equality into these higher spheres. Ethical, intellectual, or aesthetic democracy is death. A truly democratic education—one which will preserve democracy—must be, in its own field, ruthlessly aristocratic, shamelessly "high-brow."

C. S. Lewis “Democratic Education” (1944) as quoted in “Notable and Quotable” WSJ 03/30/2012

Of course Lewis speaks from a classic point of view, in which “moral effort” has meaning. These matters are presented in more detail in his classic essays which were combined into a volume called “The Abolition of Man”, available on Amazon in paperback or Kindle edition. If you have not read it, you should; Lewis asks hard questions in that book as he tries to reason his way to morality and the desirability of moral effort.

But the quote above contains a great truth, and should have been read by everyone involved in the national debate on “No Child Left Behind.” Alas, I suspect that not one of the Congress creatures who debated that bill had ever heard of it, such is the nature of our education, both higher and lower. When I was called to conduct the annual Scholar/leader program for selected graduating high school seniors in Oklahoma a decade or so ago (I was asked on the sudden disability of the professor who had set it up) I added Lewis’s Abolition of Man to the seminar text list. I only wish I could have got the state’s Senators and Members of Congress to read it. But that’s another lecture.

The demand for ‘equality’ is one of those inherent defects in democracy, and one of the reasons that the Framers in 1787 rejected a ‘democracy’ in favor of a Republic. As Lewis observes, Virtue and Truth are not democratic; of course to admit that you must admit that Truth and Beauty exist. And therein lies the key question for our times.

The notion that a majority should rule – that the votes of 50% + 1 should decide all political issues – makes no more rational sense than the notion that kings should rule, or aristocrats should rule. Not that this is an original observation; it has been debated by political philosophers for millennia, and was very much a part of the debate in the Convention of 1787. The American intelligentsia has accepted the notion that government ought to favor the lowest and most downtrodden, not as an act of charity but as simple fairness. The problem is that this is expensive, and unless the society is extremely rich it cannot afford to shower benefits on everyone, and worse, the attempt to achieve equality by leveling – by bringing down the successful so that they have no more than the unsuccessful – generally produces ruin, as the first settlers in the New World learned to their sorrow, and as economic history has shown for – well, for millennia, but it was also a lesson of the 20th Century. See the history of Soviet agriculture.

If Education is an investment, then it ought to work to maximize return; meaning that more resources ought to be devoted to improving the education of the best and brightest than to bringing the just below normal up to normal. Yes, there is an economic advantage to improving the ability of everyone, but at the margin, and certainly under the current circumstances, we put way too much effort in that and way too little into making the top 15% more productive. The only way to achieve No Child Left Behind is to be sure that No Child Gets Ahead, and in many places that is relentlessly applied – and worse, where it is not, there is sure to be a charge of discrimination.

And of course that’s true. It is discrimination to devote more resources to the best and brightest. It is also necessary if we are going to have the resources to devote to improving the lot of the wretched of the Earth.

Enough. It is time for lunch.

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Steve Feigenbaum of New Jersey, I need your email address.

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I have had to cancel my trip to Colorado Springs. No doubt Air Force Space Command will get along without me. I was more looking forward to going for what I might learn than imagining I had much to contribute. I will have more on this another time, but apparently the airlines are so desperate now that they charge you about half what the trip costs just to have held a reservation for a few days; apparently I get to pay about $200 to Orbitz and the airlines for having made the reservations. Partly that is due to my having used Orbitz in the first place, I guess.

There was a time when I would have had American Express simply make the reservations for me and let them take care of cancelling if it turned out I couldn’t go, but I guess they don’t do that sort of thing any more. At least there are still competent and sympathetic people on the telephone – assuming that you can trick the nice computer voice into letting you talk to a human being – but the executive services young lady didn’t think there was much we could do about this; the airlines are just being desperate. 

I once had half million or million mile club cards in several airlines, and I have life memberships in all the VIP lounge clubs, but none of that matters. When the computer age started I imagined a story in which everyone had to deal with artificial intelligences all of them operating at about IQ 90, and all working through rules like any other bureaucracy, all passing a Turing test – can you tell if this is an AI or a human bureaucrat – Damn You! “Sir, it is unlikely that any curse you put on me will be effective. Have a nice day”.  I gave up the story as too depressing.  Now I am finding it coming true. The good news is that some of the AI entities are smarter than the humans they replaced. Or at least care more.

We have Windows 8 running. Eric named it Alien Artifact, largely because the handsome Thermaltake case is so spectacular. Windows 8 has some trickiness, as does the high end ASUS motherboard we ended up with, but it is becoming a pleasant experience.

I’ll use the time I have ‘saved’ by not going to Colorado to do a very belated first of the year/last of last year Chaos Manor Reviews column and trying to catch up with some of the routine maintenance of Chaos Manor.  I’m really disappointed at not getting to participate in the Space Command symposium and do some sight seeing at the Command and at the Academy. I used to be on one of the academic boards of visitors of the Academy and get there several times a year, but that was long ago; haven’t been there in a while. I am sure it has changed a lot since I was last there.

At least I am not still frantically working on stuff for the trip and conference. Not that I have much time to relax.

 

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I have some dialogs over the equality/debt/deficit issue that I will get up shortly; they are informative.

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We have got the new machine – Alien Artifact – working, but with Windows 7, not 8. Windows 8 works fine on less advanced machines, but on this one the ASUS board has some advanced features that haven’t had the drivers perfected yet; since it’s months to the release of 8 this isn’t really a problem. The system is fast, and all appears to be well. We had an interesting time for a while: my local network understood that a machine names Alien Artifact existed and had a login name and password that worked with Windows Live, since Windows 8 works that way. Which meant that machines on the net which had accessed the new system under the Windows 8 name could not longer find it and of course told us access was denied and we should see the system administrator and when told to trouble shoot that it told us, breathlessly, that we were denied access, and the remedy was to see the system administrator – in other words, Microsoft Help is about as useful as it ever was. Also Help doesn’t tell us how to delete a system from the Network according to this particular system.  Machines that had never accessed Alien Artifact before had no trouble doing it now that it had me as a local user with a password. Conversion from Windows 7 to 8 will be a problem for people who keep older Windows 7 or XP systems around. Boy will they ever. We managed it. Story in the column.

 

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Bed time. The system is very well behaved in Windows 7; it’s a bit advanced for Windows 8 but I am sure that will all be taken care of over time. It’s drivers, and particularly the huge silicon cache boot system. Again more in the column I am doing. But all is well, there are 16 GB memory, and wow is this system fast. It’s also really cool looking and it runs cool. I love Thermaltake.

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Largess or entitlement

View 718 Thursday, March 29, 2012

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I’m preparing for the big Space Command conference in Colorado Springs next week. Eric is over and we will try again to build the new machine. And we continue to find new attractive features in the Thermaltake case.

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I have mail calling my attention to Dr. David Brin’s disquisition on what he calls “The Largesse Canard”,  and since it says

Among those who have carelessly bandied this smugly cynical assertion has been sci fi author Jerry Pournelle, along with many of his more right wing colleagues. It circulates widely among the dour Rothbardians and Randites who dominate today’s warped version of the libertarian movement….

http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2012/03/who-is-insulting-middle-class.html

I suppose I should say something.

First, “The Largesse Canard”. I don’t know what, precisely, that means. The statement in question is the familiar ‘quote’ to the effect that a democracy can last only until the citizens discover they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury, after which the democracy will destroy itself. The sentiment has been around a long time. Dr. Brin claims it originated with Plato, and perhaps so, but I never found it there. The most familiar version is credited to A Scots lawyer named Tytler whose works are not familiar to me, but who was apparently read by some of the Framers before the Convention of 1787. It reads

A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.

There are some who say that Tytler never said that, and this may well be so, although I don’t know that anyone claims that he would have rejected the statement: he was certainly no advocate of democracy. Dr. Brin says this is ‘The Largesse Canard’. The definition of canard is “a false or unfounded report or story; especially : a fabricated report” so I presume he means that it is a canard that Tytler ever said this.

I would have said that is the wrong question to ask. I really don’t care who first made the observation. The question is not whether it was said by Tytler, or Plato, or originated with someone in a campaign staff in 1828 or 2000: the question is whether or not it is a valid observation. Attributing it to Plato may be thought of as an appeal to authority, but this is the first time I have been invited to think Plato said it (he certainly never did say it in that form) – and I really don’t care if it was said by an 18th Century Scots lawyer whose works I haven’t read (and in fact I don’t know anyone who has read Tytler). I don’t consider Tytler an authority to begin with.

As to whether the observation is true, substitute the word ‘entitlement’ for ‘largesse’ and it certainly is not obviously false; it is at least worth considering.

It was not all that long ago that everyone in America understood that this nation wasn’t founded as a democracy, and that democracy, having been considered by the Framers, was rejected for a constitutional republic of limited and precisely defined powers. As to democracy, most of the founding figures of the American Republic rejected it flatly. John Adams was particularly vigorous in his rejection:

Democracy… while it lasts is more bloody than either aristocracy or monarchy. Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide.
John Adams

Cicero certainly rejected democracy in favor of a Republic, by which he meant a mixed government that contained elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and popular democracy in a mixture with checks and balances – and that is what the delegates to the Convention of 1787 thought they had achieved. Very few of them favored a democracy, and the fact that they had not created a democracy was known and they were attacked for it. The Federalist Papers – which I would think far more relevant than a Scots lawyer – dealt with that subject in some detail.

I would not think that dismissing the argument that democracies are in danger of destabilizing themselves, and in particular of overspending on entitlements – largesse, if you will – because there is some doubt as to the source of the assertion would be the right way to approach a point of political philosophy which has, after all, been a topic of debate among political philosophers from Plato and Aristotle to the present day. It is a tendency of democracies to vote entitlements – pork if you like – and to transfer resources from the productive to the non-productive. That would seem to be one of the issues this election is all about. Have entitlements gone too far? Can we continue to borrow money from China in order to fund entitlements? Should we tax the productive to fund bureaucracies? I would have thought these more relevant questions. Note that they are not ‘yes or no’ questions, either. As Niven often observes, rich societies can afford many uneconomic things, including bashing down the curbs to make life somewhat easier for the handicapped, but only wealthy societies can do that for long. Once you get in the habit of doing it, it’s hard to stop when you aren’t rich any more.

There was a time when there was a fairly widespread agreement about entitlements. There were some who said they weren’t big enough, and some who said there ought not be any, but the larger part of the American populace had accepted much of the New Deal and its entitlements. Over time they expanded. Social Security began adding payments to disabled people who had never worked and never would work, and certainly had not paid anything into the Social Security accounts – in other words, from a kind of insurance (with some Ponzi elements in it) Social Security became a system for transfer of money from the able who earned to the disabled who did not. That is largesse. It may be a good idea – but it is certainly not what Social Security was designed to be. It is certainly largesse paid from the public treasury. And it can be a heavy drain on the public treasury, and on investment for economic recovery in hard times.

There has been a great deal of mission creep in entitlements. I’ve watched them over the years. And perhaps there are entitlements which are not largesse, but surely that is not the crucial argument here? And certainly the whole notion of how much to transfer from the productive to the non-productive is a more interesting argument than whether a particular statement was made by a Scottish lawyer, or for that matter, by Plato.

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On reading the above I seem to have left out something. The “Largesse Canard” is sometimes expanded to include a theory of cycles in government: democracy degenerates into disorder and is usually followed by dictatorship. Tytler is said to have written a great deal about this. http://www.commonsensegovernment.com/article-03-14-09.html

I’m not familiar with Tytler, but the cycles of government were described by Aristotle and were a pretty common notion among classical political philosophers. Cicero was very familiar with them. So were most of the Framers. Again it is irrelevant whether or no a Scots lawyer added to this theory, since it is not likely that he was the primary source of the views of many of the Framers. The notion that democracies end up as dictatorships was hardly new with Tytler, and probably the best discussion of the cyclical nature of government is C Northcote Parkinson’s Evolution of Political Thought, which I used as a textbook for senior political philosophy back in my professor days.

And while it hadn’t happened yet, the French Revolution followed by Napoleon does not seem to contradict the view.

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And we have this from one of my right wing friends:

On a cause of corruption in popular governments.

James Chastek had a post last July which may be apropos the business about the public "voting themselves largesse from the public purse." He opens by saying:

After giving a lengthy discourse on the rise and extent of the decadence of popular government (with a focus on the rise of the regulatory state), Jacques Barzun concludes to the formula that the moment when good intentions exceeded the power [of the average reasonable person] to fulfill them marked the onset of decadence. There is evidence in Barzun’s discourse that this moment is very difficult to avoid, and that this formula indicates a way in which popular governments contain the seeds of their own collapse into decadence. So how does this corruption happen?

There is a fundamental desire in popular government to ensure fair play and equal access, and this requires regulation. There nevertheless remains a perpetual genius for a.) extending the scope of what will count as fair play and equal access (the gradual extension of rights) and b.) discovering ways to cut off persons from a fair share and equal access (new modes of fraud, monopoly, or impinging on the ever expanding notion of right). Both give rise to diverse sorts of regulation to ensure justice and punish crime, and the perpetual genius to extend equality or outwit the system lead to more and more regulation. At some point, the good intentions of the regulators amass to the point that no reasonable person can be expected to make his way through the labyrinth of regulation, and at this point the government is no longer a popular government. Thus the very regulations made to ensure the equal ability of everyone to compete amass to where they become an impediment to the ability of persons to compete.

This is not an argument for libertarian deregulation.

The whole essay – it’s fairly short – can be found here: http://thomism.wordpress.com/2011/07/27/on-a-cause-of-corruption-in-popular-governments/

I recall the essay. I suppose the simplest summary is that the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. But then we have much cultural knowledge about that, including folklore dating back to Aesop and before. Those who measure success by intention rather than result will often find unexpected consequences, and some will die condemned as villains no matter their intentions.

Of all sad words, of tongue and pen, the saddest are these: But I meant well.

I also have mail from many pointing out that it is not the middle class who vote themselves largess from the public treasury, but those who are unproductive transfer wealth to themselves (or to all) from the productive. This isn’t strictly true: a number of public benefits including the one that Niven and I often use as an example, bashing down the curbs to make life easier for the disabled, are enthusiastically supported by those who pay the taxes. Aristotle defines the middle class as those who possess the goods of fortune in moderation, and generally when you have government by and of the middle class, it will often boost public benefits, generally to be shared by all. The problem comes when they can no longer be afforded, yet the tax structure is that most to all of the taxes fall on increasingly smaller numbers of people. Those accustomed to the public benefits, yet now cannot pay into the public treasury, still want and generally insist on the public benefits.

Example: Some 70% of American public school children now get a breakfast paid for by the public treasury. This is apparently necessary for some number of the children – I don’t know how many, but numbers claimed run from a few percent to 30%. That is, the children would have no breakfast if the public largesse did not provide it. This is not seen as a responsibility of the parents – let them work, or go to the streets to beg; it’s their job to feed their children – but a public responsibility. One can, and I will, argue that a republic is far better off to allow locals and particularly local charities to address this difficulty. This has the great merit of allowing those temporarily out of work to assume some responsibilities and claim some pride in doing community work without burdening the people in the next county or state with local problems. It is always a good thing for a republic that many of the citizens are involved in working on local problems, rather than entrusting it all to a paid (and increasingly expensive) bureaucracy. But that’s a matter for another essay.  It should be obvious that one requirement of self government is that those who can participate in governing, and at the lowest level possible.

Rule by the middle class is not quite the same thing as populist democracy which at one time was known by the more pejorative name of mob rule. Those who have nothing have every incentive to get something, and if the easiest way to do that is through politics, than that is an attractive course. And as Murray observed in Losing Ground, if you given enough benefits to those in poverty, then poverty becomes an very attractive state to be in.  If I hire people to be poor for a living I will get many applicants; yet it must be paid for by the productive or it cannot be paid for at all.  Incidentally it is no canard to say that Barzun, Murray, and Aristotle said the things I have said they said. They did say them, famously. In Aristotle’s case we have several sources, including Cicero.

 

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The Burning City, and the price of local self government

View 718 Wednesday, March 28, 2012

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Zimmerman and Martin Photos [see last night’s mail]

While I do think the reaction to this incident has been unbalanced, my understanding is that the photo of the person flipping off the camera is misattributed (and that this not of the same Trayvon Martin who was shot).

http://www.wtsp.com/news/article/247194/19/Fake-Trayvon-Martin-picture-circulates-on-the-web-image-actually-shows-a-different-person

Ian Perry

Thanks. As I said, I have no provenance for the pictures. And we certainly have no authenticated source of information on what really happened in this Florida situation. How could we? We don’t have any of the old school journalists I grew up reading. That kind of journalism went away with the rise of the Media, and we now have to rely on do it yourself efforts. The real point here is that this is not a national case. Juan Williams in today’s Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577307613183789698.html?mod=googlenews_wsj has a number of important things to say. He concludes:

Despite stereotypes, the responsibility for the Florida shooting lies with the individual who pulled the trigger. The fact that the man pursued the teen after a 911 operator told him to back off, and the fact that he alone had a gun, calls for him to be arrested and held accountable under law. The Department of Justice is investigating the incident and the governor of Florida has appointed a special prosecutor to review the case.

But on a larger scale, all of this should open a serious national conversation about how our culture made it easier for this type of crime to take place.

The conclusion that Zimmerman ought to be arrested suggests that Williams has more data than the rest of us including the local authorities, but that is assuming facts not in evidence; I suspect that’s Williams being ritually liberal. His article notes:

The most recent comprehensive study on black-on-black crime from the Justice Department should have been a clarion call for the black community to take action. There is no reason to believe that the trends it reported have decreased since 2005, the year for which the data were reported.

Almost one half of the nation’s murder victims that year were black and a majority of them were between the ages of 17 and 29. Black people accounted for 13% of the total U.S. population in 2005. Yet they were the victims of 49% of all the nation’s murders. And 93% of black murder victims were killed by other black people, according to the same report.

Of course he treats this in the usual liberal manner: this is a “social problem” and needs a “solution” through government action. One problem is that communities that have had great success in changing these dismal statistics are generally ignored by the press. There will be a few TV specials here and there, but the notion that discipline and hard work has an effect on education is generally ignored. I don’t think there is a ‘national’ education ‘solution’; there are schools that are effective.

As I write this I am listening to an advertisement for “I can afford college dot com” (maybe it’s I can’t afford college dot com) which is pretty well a stereotype: it advertises entitlements without any discussion of qualifications. Everyone is apparently entitled to college, whether qualified or not, and ‘college’ is a magic remedy, just as high school used to be. Because of the various quota laws we have adopted in the hopes of – well, it’s not clear what is hoped for – but because of the various laws and regulations we have adopted, personnel managers are forced to rely on external credentialism; which means that people of ability and character who haven’t managed to get the ‘credential’ are tossed out, while the credential factories are run as unionized bureaucracies thoroughly subject to the Iron Law. The radio add is disturbing. It is sponsored apparently as a public service advertisement. Almost as if it were a parody.

The Civil War amendments assumed that the freedmen would become American as the Melting Pot did its magic, as it had worked with the German, Irish, Jewish, Hungarian, Italian immigrants. As late as the 1960’s conservatives could and did argue that America was unique in that you could study and learn how to become an American, unlike, say, becoming a Swede or an Italian or an Irishman. All “hyphen” Americans – e.g. Italian-Americans, Hunkie-Americans, and so forth – had been discriminated against, and had overcome that. The freedmen would do the same. That was the assumption and in many places it was true. Signs of it working were the Tuskegee Airmen, the Red Ball Express, the integration – over time – of the US Army and Navy, all done without a lot of fanfare. But then came the big Civil Rights movements, and the notions of entitlement took over from the notions of civic responsibility. Being an American was an entitlement, and had no requirements whatever. An odd notion, but one which seems to prevail now. With the usual results.

The Zimmerman/Martin case is a local case for local authorities, and while there may be lessons to be learned, if it has a national legislative or executive policy effect, that effect will be to diminish libery.

A Republic of free self governing citizens will not get everything right everywhere and certainly every local community will not come up with policies that everyone else thinks are right. That is a certain outcome of liberty.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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The Black Panthers have raised the amount of the reward offered for Mr. Zimmerman’s whereabouts. And there are threats to burn down cities if they cut back on entitlements. News at eleven. We can learn about this kind of government from Greece.

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http://p.washingtontimes.com/blog/watercooler/2012/mar/27/picket-spike-lee-re-tweets-incorrect-address-trayv/

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Last night’s mailbag had a note about fusion experiments in France. I have today:

 

Michio Kaku was almost certainly referring the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) project currently being constructed in France. This is funded by a consortium of countries, with the EU (not just France) funding 45% and the US funding 9%. First plasma is planned for November 2019 which ties in with the "8 year" timeframe. However, D-T operation is expected start in 2026.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

From that article:

"ITER’s mission is to demonstrate the feasibility of fusion power, and prove that it can work without negative impact. Specifically, the project aims:

To momentarily produce ten times more thermal energy from fusion heating than is supplied by auxiliary heating (a Q value of 10).

To produce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5.

To maintain a fusion pulse for up to 480 seconds.

To ignite a ‘burning’ (self-sustaining) plasma.

To develop technologies and processes needed for a fusion power plant – including superconducting magnets and remote handling (maintenance by robot).

To verify tritium breeding concepts.

To refine neutron shield/heat conversion technology (most of energy in the D+T fusion reaction is released in the form of fast neutrons)."

If all goes well, ITER is to be succeeded by a demonstration commercial fusion reactor, known as DEMO:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEMO

Planned to start operating in 2033.

Alex

I used to follow fusion closely; for a long time fusion was the great hope for energy. Over time it became clear that we would have workable fusion energy Real Soon Now, but the date when we would have it continued to recede into the far future. I waited for some indication of real breakthroughs, but after a while I began to follow something else.

Energy either comes from the Sun or it’s nuclear.(Well, there’s tidal but that’s not the point.)  “Fossil fuels” were (most think) originally solar energy gathered over a long period of time. All of the renewable stuff like green slime and rooftop solar are subject to the solar constant limit of about 1.2 KW/meter^2 meaning that it takes a big area to generate a lot of energy. Moreover that’s when the sun is shining. Growing green slime is just as subject to day/night cycles as any other; green slime, on the other hand, does accumulate the energy gathered. Rooftop solar needs to be used when generated or stored. Storage is the big problem. That makes rooftop particularly appropriate for hot summer day air conditioning since air conditioning demand is one of the major factors in setting peak power generation requirements. It is very close to economic to invest in rooftop solar for schools in southern areas where the summer skies tend to be clear – in particular in Los Angeles, given the state subsidies. Private schools are finding rooftop solar very economic, but alas, that depends in part on local political considerations and subsidies.

Green slime production has similar limits – you need long days of sunlight without clouds. Such areas are generally called deserts. Green slime requires a lot of water. Transporting water to deserts is – well you get the idea.

Nuclear power would solve a lot of problems; it can even solve water problems. I have often said that Los Angeles ought to build a nuclear power plant and use its power to pump the outfalls of the Hyperion sewage treatment plant up to the top of the Angeles Forest and let it run down refilling the water table and the artesian wells. That would save pumping water across the San Joaquin Valley where much evaporates while the various Sacramento delta critters are endangered. But Los Angeles can outvote the rest of the state so we have the numbers so we get the water. This is democracy in action. Welcome to the conversion from Republic to Democracy.

It’s late and I still have errands. At least I have energy.

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The Secret of Black Ship Island continues to sell well. We are going to fix some minor formatting problems, but they are sufficiently minor that we are in no hurry, and you shouldn’t be concerned about buying it – they really are minor, and don’t really break the empathy in the story. We will fix them. There is a “review” on Amazon that complains that the book can’t be read in landscape as opposed to portrait mode. That concerned us, and we tested it. The problem appears to be with the commenter’s reader: we can read it landscape or portrait. By we I mean me, several advisors, and some readers. The “reviewer” gave us only 3 * rating because of this flaw, but it’s not our flaw. I don’t think that’s particularly fair, but it’s one of the growing pains of eBooks; at some point it will all even out. Despite the 3* rating (essentially that of a single person who says he did not read the book) we have

 

  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,159 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
  • Which, I am told, isn’t bad. Particularly for a novella.

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    Zimmerman, contraception, mercenary arsenals, fusion, and other interesting stuff

    Mail 717 Tuesday , March 27, 2012

    Not a complete mailbag, but a couple of topics are topical so to speak.

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    Black Panther Party has offered reward for Zimmerman’s ‘capture’

    It amazes me that this could happen and that the media gives it a pass:

    Zimmerman has gone into hiding. A fringe group, the New Black Panther Party, has offered a $10,000 reward for his "capture."

    http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-03-26/news/os-trayvon-martin-zimmerman-account-20120326_1_miami-schools-punch-unarmed-black-teenager

    Tracy

    Few things have amazed me recently. Incidentally, the radio today reports that the Black Panther Party has raised the ‘reward’ for information on Zimmerman’s whereabouts. All races are equal, of course…

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    Media Bias?

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    Anon

    I have no provenance for these pictures, but I have them from more than one source. It is an interesting question.

    This just in:

    Jerry,

    I just wanted to let you know that the photo in the bottom right of the montage that is supposedly a photo of an older Treyvon Martin is an admitted fake. Please see this report from Fox News online: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/03/27/media-matters-honcho-sorry-after-blasting-drudge-for-trayvon-photo/?intcmp=obinsite.

    There is more on this in tomorrow’s View. It all illustrates the point I have been trying to make: given the state of journalism we are not likely to get the facts, and there is no reason to conclude that the local authorities, who are a lot closer to this, have not or will not act properly. We can’t nationalize all events. If we did we would drown.

     

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    TSA

    Sounds like someone might be reading your blog in congress, which I believe you have always suspected if not knew.

    http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2012/03/congressional_t.html

    Bob Gates

    I know for a fact that at least two Congressmen and staffers of at least half a dozen more regularly read these posts.

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    Private arsenal ships

    Jerry, I get regular newsletters from military.com. Today’s included a link to an article

    (http://defensetech.org/2012/03/22/private-arsenal-ships-in-the-fight-against-piracy/)

    about how private security companies are maintaining floating arsenals in international waters off of Somalia. The idea is that merchantmen should be able to protect themselves from pirates but there are laws against armed ships entering some ports, for obvious reasons. The biggest problem with this is the complete lack of safety standards and, in fact, even the companies running them are concerned because they don’t want any accidents or thefts either.

    J

    I seem to remember some similar problems for Mike Hoare’s outfits in the Katanga days. I can pretty well guarantee that putting blue helmets on troops doesn’t really make them less mercenary or more reliable when it comes to safety regulations…

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    Subject: 4-Year-Old’s Drawing Leads to Dad’s Arrest

    I want to believe there was more to this story, but in today’s environment, I’m not sure any more.

    From the article:

    “One day last week at school Jessie Sansone’s 4-year-old daughter drew a picture of a man with a gun. The teacher didn’t like it, so she called Family and Social Services. If you think that’s an outrageous overreaction, just wait.

    According to the Calgary Herald, when Jessie went to pick up his daughter and his other children at the end of the day, he was handcuffed, arrested, and strip searched <http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Father+arrested+girl+picture/6209132/story.html> , as they looked for this gun. They did actually find one after they went and searched the family’s home in Ontario … only it turned out to be a toy. Yes, the only gun in the entire house was a toy gun. “

    http://thestir.cafemom.com/toddler/133600/4yearolds_drawing_leads_to_dads?quick_picks=1

    Tracy

    A startling story, but I am not familiar with the Canadian constitution. This sort of activity was a major factor in the Independence movements prior to 1776. Of course it could happen here…

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    Prostitutes have political power!  =)

    <.>

    Spain’s high-class escorts are refusing to have sex with the nation’s bankers – until they open up credit lines to cash-strapped families and firms.

    Madrid’s top-end prostitutes say their indefinite strike will continue until bank employees ‘fulfil their responsibility to society’ and start offering bigger loans for struggling Spaniards, it has been claimed.

    Sneaky bankers were trying to circumvent the protest by claiming to be architects or engineers, the sex-workers said.

    </>

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2120984/Spains-high-class-hookers-ban-sex-bankers-provide-credit-cash-strapped-economy.html?ITO=1490

    —–

    Most Respectfully,

    Joshua Jordan, KSC

    Percussa Resurgo

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    your nuclear power comment

    A couple of weeks ago Michio Kaku was a guest on Coast to Coast and in passing mentioned that there’s a French experimental reactor that is trying to get HOT fusion up and running. He said they’re close and expect to be generating power in about 8 years.

    I don’t know if I misheard him or not but I’ve seen nothing on this anywhere.

    Have you heard anything about it ?

    george senda

    I have not seen anything on this. My last serious inquiry into fusion power led me to conclude that we know how to build a large and expensive device that would, using fusion, produce more energy than it consumed (provided that you could collect much of the heat wasted in confining the reaction) but it would not be economically break even, and building a demonstration unit would be extremely expensive. Two decades ago I thought inertial confinement and laser triggers would make fusion devices a great deal cheaper, but I have seen nothing on that either. I confess that my enthusiasm for fusion now has faded since for thirty years it has been there will be fusion Real Soon Now. Eventually it will happen, but there are other things we have to develop first, I think.

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    I have had this mail for weeks:

    President Obama & the E.U. “Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities”

    Dr Pournelle,

    I hope you’re feeling well enough to give your thoughts on this N.Y.

    Times op-ed by John Bolton & John Yoo on the Obama administration’s unofficial adherence to the E.U.’s draft treaty on outer-space activities, including restrictions on the militarization of space:

    <http://nytimes.com/2012/03/09/opinion/hands-off-the-heavens.html>,

    “Hands Off the Heavens”.

    I know this issue is important to you. I’ve been borrowing your “There Will be War” series from the Brooklyn Public Library, and I’m sure that American military presence in space is not much less important now than it was in the ’80s.

    —Joel Salomon

    I covered most of the principles on this in The Strategy of Technology. Space will be decisive and if you have no ability to defend your access to space you may very much wish you had. Take the high ground, boy, or they’ll kick hell out of you in the valleys.

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    Contraception

    Contraception is pretty much universally available and affordable here in the US, yet the very people that you would think would most avail themselves of it don’t. http://neoneocon.com/2012/02/18/over-50-of-births-to-mothers-under-30-are-outside-marriage/ Digging into the data it seems that it is 59% among young Hispanic women and 78% among Blacks. This is an unmitigated disaster (particularly for the children) whose wave, I suspect, has not yet crested and to which government will inevitably turn its attention. In this regard the legislation mandating the universal availability of free contraception is not only a boon for Big Pharma, but a necessary precondition for a government mandate to **employ** contraception. The ‘Progressive’ welfare state has created a problem which can (notionally) only be solved by an even more controlling welfare state. There won’t be any unanticipated side effects, I’m sure; it’s all good. Strangely, I’m missing the troglodytic, pitchfork waving mobs burning down condom and pill factories. Perhaps they are only deemed to have rioted and burned.

    Certain contraceptives seem to be a major cause of blood clots in women. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cts=1331257756266&ved=0CGAQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.webmd.com%2Fsex%2Fbirth-control%2Fnews%2F20111026%2Fnewer-birth-control-pills-may-double-blood-clot-risk&ei=fmFZT6CTE8eZiQLVlrHOCw&usg=AFQjCNE8osVr3Kexnui7VIWGUI8r7SdZyg&sig2=JgRZZM0Fbxi4zPaCRCZtxA

    Women’s health is not really the driving force behind this movement.

    Regarding Ms. Fluke and her alleged constituents, $1,000 a year on contraceptives would seem to indicative of a certain energetic and sustained focus on the prevention of the consequences of procreative activities. But perhaps they are merely obsessive compulsive consumers of these products rather than practitioners of pillow arts; better not to use nasty words in the absence of evidence; probability we’ll just ignore.

    As for Malthusian prophecies, I have become sceptical. I clearly recall predictions that 25% of Americans would starve by 1990, and someone even went so far as to suggest the extermination of India as a realistic, if temporary solution to world overpopulation. The panic seems to have been a bit premature. What saved us? I submit: human ingenuity. Panic is still premature.

    Leo Walker

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    Universal Health Care

    A point from one of your commenters:

    "Its time that we get past the idea of universal health care. Every industrialized, forward looking country has some type of universal coverage and it shows in their health statistics. The US if falling way behind in infant mortality, life-span and general health. This impacts us economically, and reduces our ability to compete."

    He is the one behind the times. The truth is that all of these "forward looking" countries (and ours) have huge piles of debt. Politicians will promise anything to gain support, and just like Athens in ancient Greece or Athens today, it will catch up with us. I say "us" instead of "them" because this problem has been pushed off in the grand style of Louis the XIV "Apres moi, le deluge". There is nothing new under the sun and human nature is basically consistent. Bills always come due and you can never make specific calls on what is the best way for the economy to be micromanaged. The idea that macro economics is different than micro is absurd on its face, yet the "progressives" still insist that they just need to spend a bit more for the good of all and things will be perfect.

    Damon

    The one thing you can be sure of is that someone will pay soldiers.

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    Saw your mention of your "tendency to overly long and complex sentences" and realized that the sentence itself might be a case in

    point: 72 words, 4 commas, 1 semi-colon, and 1 period. Also 6 pronouns, 6 proper names, and 6 verbs. I also count at least four separate timeframes-as-point-of-view (present, past retrospective to present, past influencing expectations of the present, past retrospective to present (again), present, and past). On the gripping hand, the sentence was perfectly and easily undersandable on first reading.

    "Niven and Barnes and I have developed pretty good editorial habits and we’ve worked together long enough to know some of each other’s weaknesses, such as my tendency to overly long and complex sentences and Steve’s addiction to gerunds, so our works are generally well edited; having said that I don’t want to diminish the contribution of editors like Ed Kuehn, Bob Gleason, and Jim Baen on our works in the past."

    Once in High School I decided to see just how long a sentence I could write. It ended up being shortly over one page, long-hand, on wide-ruled paper. Didn’t actually *say* much, but I said it verbosely and within the bounds of proper English grammar. I think I had you beat by a bit (at least in number of semi-colons), but if I kept it I don’t know where the page would be. And it still wouldn’t be worth re-reading except for the same amusement value that caused its creation.

    You keep on writing and I’ll keep on reading. Unlike my younger self, you have a lot to say that’s worth saying.

    –Gary P.

    I was impressed by Macaulay at an early age and never got over it…

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    Zero trust in the professional force

    http://thisainthell.us/blog/?p=29019

    "The U.S. Navy will start giving Breathalyzer tests to Marines and sailors reporting for duty aboard ships and submarines and at squadrons, Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus announced Monday in a worldwide call to forces."

    I see many results to come from this, none desirable. Provided, that is, that the goal is to improve the defense of the United States.

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