Confirmations; education; and other critical matters

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Between 1965 and 2011, the official poverty rate was essentially flat, while the government spending per person on poverty programs rose by more than 900% after inflation.

Peter Cove

Amnesty International Boss Endorses “Jihad in self-defence”

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide.

James Burnham

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

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I have about had it with Firefox. I have been using it for years, and mostly it works well; but periodically it crashes and has lost all memory of anything I have done with it since last October. It restores back to then. Not always: sometimes, after a computer reset or just overnight sleep, it comes back exactly as it was. But once in a while the computer is working fine, but when I got to Firefox it is seriously dead; nothing for it but to shut it down with Task Manager, because clicking on the shutdown X or indeed anywhere does nothing. When I open again, up comes a months old session. I can always tell, because it also opens a window in which I am talking about the Heinlein Award from NSS. I can close that window, shut down Firefox, telling it to remember the current session, and when it comes back up that’s gone: but after any serious Firefox failure, up will come the months old session and I hear myself talking again. After that it’s a half hour task to rebuild the session from yesterday’s history, painstakingly opening a new tab and restoring tab at a time – if I fail to open a new tab, the restoration replaces what I have just done.

I’m not sure why I stay with Firefox. I have had bad experiences with Windows Explorer often enough that I have stopped trying the new “improved” version – in my experience Microsoft “improvements” are at the expense of what used to be called user friendliness – but I guess I will have to try it again, because Firefox doesn’t fix old bugs while often adding new ones.

I’m sure there is some arcane formula for fixing Firefox, and in the old days I would have found and published it, but now I seem to have fewer and fewer productive hours each day, and bug chasing doesn’t have the appeal it once had.

And now, I discover, each of my new tabs is opened in a new WINDOW although I did nothing to tell this officious drech of a program to do that. It will take time I don’t have to find the fix for that, and meanwhile Firefox is useless. If they don’t fix these interface bugs pretty fast, I’m giving up.

Later: well, Firefox, after being shut down and restarted several time, seems to be it’s old, somewhat cranky, but usable self again. It has ceased to make any addition a new window rather than tab (and driving Windows 19 to distraction and I’m going to put up with it a while longer, but I understand Microsoft is still improving whatever they call their browser, and eventually they’ll

let a real user get at the interface. So they may be catching up. Certainly everyone needs competition.

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Everyone needs competition, but no one wants any for himself; one reason our schools for two generations or more have been easily mistaken for an act of oppression settled on us by a foreign conqueror. There used to be built in competition: schools were mostly paid for by the people who used them, in small enough school districts that it was actually realistic for competent people – like retired military, or police, or business people or even teachers – to run for them. They were usually depicted in intellectual circles as bombastic idiots whose main objective was to keep costs down – Miss Brooks was always in the right and the Board in the wrong – but even in fiction it generally worked out to the benefit of the students. Not any more. The problems and dissents in todays world ignore the students, and work out to the benefit of the politicians, educrat unions, and teachers with tenure regardless of competence, and everyone knows this. Few politicians send their own children to public schools, especially not to any they actually manage. They know better. Jimmy Carter sent his kids to public schools, as I recall. Never heard of them since, but perhaps I do not pay close attention to such news.

Recently there was drama in the Senate, with the Vice President called to preside over, and cast the deciding vote in, the confirmation of Mrs. DeVos as Secretary of Education. Not a single Democrat voted for her, including New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, when not all that long ago served on the Board of the school choice organization Mrs. DeVos chairs. According to the Wall Street Journal ( The Real Democratic Party) Mr. Cory Booker hopes to run for President, and since it is impossible to raise the money of superdelegate votes for the Democratic Nomination without the support of the Educrat Unions, he went along with the party Line and voted against his one time friend.

The unions can‘t even tolerate a debate on the subject lest their monopoly power be threatened. All that chatter about “the children” is so much moral humbug.

The official reason for the extraordinary opposition to Mr. Trump’s non-political nominee is her lack of educational experience. Of course to gain acceptable professional experience you would have to come up through the ranks of the educrats and become one of them – or break your heart in a classroom in a system of education indistinguishable from and act of war against the American people since 1983. I would have thought it obvious that whomever Mr. Trump appointed to Education Secretary it would not be an “experienced professional.” Instead he chose a very wealthy school choice activist; sort of like choosing a community organizer to be President? But perhaps that it too snarky.

The public school system has failed, and I doubt it will ever be reconstructed. If it is, it will be by returning control to the local neighborhoods and letting local school boards whose constituents pay school taxes run the show including choosing principals and key teacher; by rewarding competence and dismissing incompetence.

It has been shown more than once that one way to improve schools is to fire the worst 10% of the teachers. Don’t replace them. Just make do with the rest. The school will improve noticeably in numbers of pupils who can read and students who graduate – and can read when they do graduate. But in fact no school fires any incompetents, and teacher awards are given by seniority, not performance; the unions are unalterably opposed to rewards for competence in teaching.

Mrs. Betsy DeVos is now Secretary of Education. She is strongly for parental choice in school, and is aware that some parents will choose badly; but at present the school system is unimaginably bad; it is unlikely any parent would chose something worse than the system we have. They would really have to work to find one.

As to how do you choose the worst 10% of teachers, the other teachers know. So do the students. Try 5% to start; it’s still far more than the number fired for incompetence in the present system, which amounts to under 1% a year, ten or fewer in a system of tens of thousands. Yes: there might be some injustices, firings due to spite and factions; but the present system keeps them all, and the clock is ticking.

To give some idea of what schools once routinely did, I offer California’s image

I have just learned that Senator Sessions has been confirmed as attorney general (without the need for the Vice President). The Cabinet is forming.

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An Antipoverty Veteran Now Wages War on Dependency

How Peter Cove came to realize that jobs, not government aid, offered the route to prosperity

By

Jason L. Riley

Feb. 7, 2017 7:04 p.m. ET

100 COMMENTS

Peter Cove dropped out of a graduate program at the University of Wisconsin-Madison more than 50 years ago to enlist in Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty. These days, he’s fighting a war on dependency.

“We have edged toward a moral cliff where the shame of being dependent on government aid has been replaced by a breezy bonhomie for entitlement,” he writes in a new book, “Poor No More.” “We have moved from a commitment to serve the deserving poor to an assumption that all are deserving. And much of this rests at the feet of politicians trolling for votes by larding on the largesse.”[clip]

The government has spent an amazing amount of money per capita since Lyndon Johnson declared war on poverty. The poverty rate remains essentially unchanged since 1965, and there are more households on welfare now than when the war on poverty began.

If you take the annual expenditure on poverty and divide by the number of people on poverty, the result is a number above the poverty level; yet we are told of the misery of those in poverty. Where all the money goes I leave as an exercise for the reader. There is a great deal more worth reading in the article.

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Finally, George Schultz and James Baker, two former Secretaries of State, give their views on climate change.

A Conservative Answer to Climate Change

Enacting a carbon tax would free up private firms to find the most efficient ways to cut emissions.

By

George P. Shultz and

James A. Baker III

Updated Feb. 7, 2017 7:07 p.m. ET

1426 COMMENTS

Thirty years ago, as the atmosphere’s protective ozone layer was dwindling at alarming rates, we were serving proudly under President Ronald Reagan. We remember his leading role in negotiating the Montreal Protocol, which continues to protect and restore the delicate ozone layer. Today the world faces a similar challenge: the threat of climate change.

Just as in the 1980s, there is mounting evidence of problems with the atmosphere that are growing too compelling to ignore. And, once again, there is uncertainty about what lies ahead. The extent to which climate change is due to man-made causes can be questioned. But the risks associated with future warming are so severe that they should be hedged.

The responsible and conservative response should be to take out an insurance policy. Doing so need not rely on heavy-handed, growth-inhibiting government regulations. Instead, a climate solution should be based on a sound economic analysis that embodies the conservative principles of free markets and limited government.[snip]

I do not accept all their arguments, but I agree that I could be wrong; and insurance policy makes sense. This one is worth thinking about.

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Recycle rare earths

Dr. Pournelle,
Perhaps we begin to recycle and collect what we have, if China limits our access. Expensive, but better than some alternatives.
Thanks for years of information and entertainment, Sir!
Beverly Nuckols, MD

Agreed. Of course it requires energy; everything does. But we need the energy for other uses too…

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Regulation and Draining the Swamp

Jerry,
In response to my post on the source of regulations, you wrote ‘It may start there, but I do not think the civil service is ever eager to declare any job redundant; certainly their union never has. It is also certain that it will take the cooperation of Congress to drain the swamp.’
You are right about the civil service and their protection of jobs, but surely, just like managing immigration, it is important to control the regulatory ‘borders’ even as we attempt to reduce the unnecessary burdens on the economy by eliminating over regulation. It is also difficult to see how a serious dent can be made in the regulatory burden if the case cam be made that the executive is no longer enforcing the laws as passed by the legislative. A serious draining of the regulatory swamp may require a serious refinement of existing legislation.
As for the number of civil servants, the plethora of regulations on the books certainly seems to provide justification for all of these government employees and making a serious dent in their numbers would put millions of people on the unemployment rolls with little prospect of finding a private sector job — a politically untenable situation. We need to figure out a way to get over our addiction to bloated government employment without going through a cold-turkey withdrawal.
We come to our bloated bureaucracy, though, from another set of forces other than having too many regulations to enforce. Early in my career I was a civil servant, a GS-1 working as an electronics technician for the Department of Defense. I saw highly competent engineers, doing productive work, stymied in their careers, unable to be promoted or given a pay raise in their GS-12 positions, because the rules by which civil servants gained promotion or pay raises did not allow them, no matter how deserving they were.
These engineers were at the maximum step within the GS-12 level. Their manager was not allowed to give them any kind of a merit pay raise above what that step specified. The only way to give them a pay raise was to make them a GS-13 level. This, however, required them to have a managerial role and, therefore, to have direct reports — lower level civil servants they would be responsible for. So, to solve the injustice of their stymied careers as highly competent technical employees, the manager creates a justification for new hires in his office, promotes the engineers to GS-13 and assigns them responsibility for managing the new hires.
The cycle continues from here. To get to GS-14, they need more direct reports, so more people are hired. And so on.
This plays along with the second driver of bloat in the civil service rules — an office may or may not get more money in next year’s budget, but will be guaranteed to get LESS next year if they do not spend ALL of this year’s budget. So, as the fiscal year begins to wind down, there is a frantic call to all levels of the office to SPEND MORE MONEY. On ANYTHING. The budget must be ‘justified’ by expenditure, not by production. No one is considered competent to judge the productivity of the various offices, so they have to look at the objective ‘measure’ of expenditures. A great way to spend money is to hire more people. Then you can promote people who may even deserve a promotion. And new people need cost of living increases, desks, supplies, you-name-its, so it is easier to justify a bigger budget for next year. Oh yes, and as the manager of the office has more people with more reports, he gets promoted, too.
If ever there was a prescription for inflation, these rules are it.

[

Kevin L Keegan

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Constitutional Crisis; Immigration Order; and other matters of importance.

Monday, February 6, 2017

Amnesty International Boss Endorses “Jihad in self-defence”

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide.

James Burnham

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

We are a nation of assimilated immigrants.

Immigration without assimilation is invasion.

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Apparently I am nearly alone in seeing this judicial revolt as a true constitutional crisis, fully deserving impeachments by the House even though Senate convictions are unlikely. I am not arguing the wisdom of Mr. Trump’s immigration executive orders, other than to say they are hardly unexpected given his campaign; but their legality is manifest. Even those disliking them say so. The Constitution gives Federal authorities control over immigration; not states. That’s the Congress and the President; there might be room for judicial mediation if these two branches were in serious dispute on this, but they have not been asked.

Black letter law gives the President authority to suspend or delay admitting any class of immigrant he sees fit if he declares it a matter of national security. That law has been in effect for a long time. Mr. Obama used it in reverse to admit migrants and refugees; he did not see them as a threat to national security. That was his prerogative as President, whether we agree or not. A judge could not have ruled that he was wrong. Congress could impeach him, or strip him of the power (although he could veto that legislation; a simple majority ruling would not be sufficient). Neither was done and his rulings stood. The same is true now with Trump: he has black letter law on his side.

Mr. Trump does. This decision might be questioned by Congress, but even Congress has no authority to stop his actions without considerable more procedure than we have seen, and as a matter of fact it will not do so. So the President takes an action that his predecessor says is wrong, and the Courts suspend the order, because they do not find that this is a national security issue. That is not for them to find. That is a matter for the President and Congress.

This is a grave constitutional crisis, and it does not look like ending well.

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SUBJ: Breaking news: Donald Trump cures cancer! The resulting headlines:

_The New York Times_ “TRUMP DECLARES WAR ON CANCER DOCTORS”

_USA TODAY_ “CANCER CURE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE, MANY SCIENTISTS SAY”

_FORBES_ “TRUMP’S LATEST ACTION SENDS MEDICAL STOCKS CRASHING”

_NATIONAL REVIEW_ “WAS CANCER REALLY ALL THAT BAD??”

_The Washington Post_ “TRUMP’S MEDDLING MAY HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

– ONCOLOGISTS HARDEST HIT”

Shamelessly stolen from Ace Of Spades HQ website at http://ace.mu.nu/.

They’re having a contest there to see who can concoct the funniest headline. The entries in the comments are priceless.

Cordially,

John

 

 

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This is a typical GOPUSA email:

Dear GOPUSA Reader,
This is an urgent alert for all American citizens born between 1931-1955.
For the last 3 years, a small team near Washington D.C. has been investigating chilling accusations of a secret U.S. government program…
The rumors? Confirmed: This program is quietly testing deadly ingredients on over 35.6 million unsuspecting senior citizens.
And today they’re releasing all the details in this shocking video exposé.[clip]

They almost never induce me to follow one of their links, but for some reason I followed this one. I have not the foggiest notion of what they want to warn me of, because after several minutes of dire warning teasing, with no possibility of fast forward, I gave up – and still had to click again to be allowed to close the window. I have no idea of who GOPUSA is, but I’ve had enough of them. If anyone knows what they are warning us of and can say so unambiguously and briefly I might look into it, but from here on, GOPUSA is junk mail for me.

 

GOPUSA

The link you got in the email from GOPUSA points, as you know, to a video presentation. I hate those things too. But if you click away from the video it offers the chance to read a transcript. From that, the following list of dangerous drugs can be seen. For some reason, they missed #4, which is Alzheimer’s drugs. Aricept is mentioned.

THE 7 MOST DANGEROUS
PRESCRIPTION DRUGS

#1: Sleeping Pills
(Ambien, Lunesta, Restoril)

#2: Cholesterol Drugs
(Statins like Baycol)

#3: Blood Pressure Drugs
(Beta-Blockers, Calcium Channel Blockers)

#5: Arthritis Drugs
(NSAIDs like Celebrex)

#6: Diabetes Drugs
(Actos, Avandia, Byetta, Metformin)

#7: Chemotherapy
(Tamoxifen)

Richard L. Hardison, PLS, PE, CFedS

Waynesville, NC

I do not recall any opportunity to click away from the video?

 

I use Pale Moon, but it should work the same in Firefox as well. Just click to “x” to kill the open tab and you should get a dialog box that gives an option of staying on the page. The page you stay on should be the transcript.

Most of those video presentations work the same way.

Richard L. Hardison, PLS, PE, CFedS

Waynesville, NC

 

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Russians Hacked Superbowl!

I cannot confirm these rumors on Twitter, but it seems the Russians leaked the Falcons playbook to the Patriots. Those evil communists may have meddled in our most precious American traditions. We might never recover from this. Until we can be certain, we must encourage the media to engage in autistic screeching so we can keep America calm and protect the national security! =)

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Darn clever, those Slavs…

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Ethics of Government

I believe the ethics of providing government services and paying for them by borrowing money and giving our children and grandchildren the debt ought to be questioned and discussed if we are going to discuss ethics

—————–

Keep in mind the mentality of elected officials.  The extent of their vision ends at the next election.  Do whatever it takes to win the next election.

Fabricate lies, smear your opponents, misrepresent the facts.  The electorate has a short memory.  By the time the election is done the people

will have forgot what you said, or promised.  And if they don’t, well, you won the elections and have to be recalled to correct that mistake.

B-

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Lady Gaga was political

Hi, Jerry.
I hope you recover from the crud soon. It’s going around. I live in Ontario and I and my family have the same thing.
Re Lady Gaga, you said: “Lady Gaga’s half time show was spectacular, and didn’t make one political statement, or indeed any statement at all.” You seem to Have forgotten that Woody Guthrie, who wrote “This Land is Your Land” had “This guitar kills fascists” written on his guitar. It was a subtle reference but I’m sure she knew exactly what she was doing.
Regards
Keith

Perhaps you are more observant than I. I saw nothing more than a very well rehearsed spectacular and a very athletic performance in higher heels than Ginger Rogers ever managed.

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‘So, in every aspect of the preparation and release of the datasets leading into K15, we find Tom Karl’s thumb on the scale pushing for, and often insisting on, decisions that maximize warming and minimize documentation.’

<https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/climate-scientists-versus-climate-data/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

No surprises there.

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Dark matter and simplified models

https://sinews.siam.org/Details-Page/dynamics-and-the-dark-matter-mystery
It looks like the great disconnect between predicted and actual galaxy rotation may be due not to new physics or “dark matter” but an overly simplified gravity model used by astronomers to make the prediction.
The model is not reality, and the map is not the territory

I know it appeared yesterday. It cannot be repeated too often: the map is not the territory.

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Subj: Squeeze play

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/02/03/chinas-secret-trump-card-could-beijing-deprive-our-military-critical-defense-components.html

J

Something else to be aware of. But after all, it’s free trade…

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Immigration Order

Dr. Pournelle,
For many people, the main issue with the immigration order was not the fact that it temporarily limited immigration from the 7 specified countries–but the fact that it was applied to people who were already legal residents of the United States. Green Card holders were stopped at airports, reportedly against the interpretation the state department initially wanted to go with (a member of the administration reportedly told them it did apply to Green Card holders).
I don’t have a strong opinion on what security measures should be in place. I think reasonable people can support a more restrictive approach to war refugees, but (without some really clear and specific good reason) randomly and without giving them any warning making people who have already been accepted as permanent residents think they are being shut out as they are on planes to come back to the U.S. seems to violate the biblical prohibition against oppressing foreigners–and, more secularly, is likely to hurt our country’s reputation. That said, I think it was more likely a jerk negotiating tactic than (as much of the internet seems to think) a sign of an impending fascist coup. Now appointing Neil Gorsuch (who, I read, is known for taking a narrow view of administrative agency discretion in interpreting statutes) is likely to look more attractive to liberals.
Regards,
Ian Perry

Were any actually sent back?  Green cards are now accepted.

Green Card holders have been sent back if this is correct: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Assali-Family-Syria-Donald-Trump-Vote-Allentown-Immigration-Ban-Travel-Order-412238593.html

Of course if it was a policy that was a net benefit, the fact that some people were injured would not make it a bad policy, sometimes there are serious trade-offs. However, in this case the Green Card interference caused problems like this without a corresponding benefit. Restrictions on travel could have been put in place without stopping people who already have been given permission to stay in the U.S. legally. I at first wondered if the bureaucracy had possible interpreted the orders expansively in order to discredit them, but instead the reports are that it was first interpreted narrowly and then Steve Bannon told government officials that, yes, it did apply to Green Card holders.

Ian Perry

They seem to have been working it out. For eight years the immigration authorities have been working with UN and NGO supplied vetting of migrants, and very generous grants of green cards to favorites of the Obama administration officials. The case of the Iraqi translator who held a green card as a reward for service was worked out in less than a day of inconvenience to him.

However I am not making a case for the wisdom of the orders; but it is black letter law that President legally made them.

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The medical industry, immigration & honesty

Good Morning Dr Pournelle,
Scattered thoughts this morning while I was reading your offering.
Our medical industry. Ever try & find a Canadian or four who gave up their Health Care Canada card to use the US services? Not going to happen, I tried on the internet through various RV groups/sites/lists, lot’s of stories of it happening but no real people. If you did I’ll bet they were immigrants.
That is not to say that the wealthy don’t cross the boarder & pay cash for things, just like Americans do for things (medical tourism).
Illegal immigration. I have to agree with the writer who said to make it more expensive for the US employer but I think what is really needed is a simple way to allow “Guest workers” into the country. Not a standard US govt operation that takes years to go thru either but something that makes more sense for the guest worker to do then just sneaking across the boarder.
We have a great deal of technology these days, the guest workers could be much easier to find if they didn’t abide by the rules. The way it stands now when the guest workers sneak in we have zero control.
Last night as I watched President Trump on the tube I realized that his telling the truth is probably scaring a lot of people, we are really used to being lied to & being told what we want to hear from our politicians!

Rob M

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No, we aren’t.

We are a nation of assimilated immigrants.”

This is not true, even as a hopeful statement, and plays into the Leftist claim that all immigrants, even illegal ones, should be welcomed in our country.

The statement conflates descendants of immigrants with their parents. People who are born here are not immigrants. Calling them such prioritizes the country of their parents, not our country. This is the Leftist agenda, which seeks to keep us divided.

The statement also disregards those of us whose ancestors did not immigrate to this country, but rather, migrated to it.

Migrants brings their culture to the new land and reseed it there. That is what my English & Scottish ancestors did. As you point out, immigrants either invade an established country or assimilate into its culture.

In short, we are, or at least used to be, a country of Americans, most by birth, some – a minority – by choice, and all by great good luck. 

Harmon Dow

Yes, we are, in the sense that those who use the phrase “Nation of Immigrants” generally mean it. Italians, Irish, Saxons, Jews, Irish, Poles, Balts, French, all came as immigrants; Few established ghettos and lived apart from their neighbors, and both the St Patrick’s Day and Columbus Day parades are led by the United States flag. Sometimes assimilation took two generations, rarely three; and those children of immigrants are what we refer to as a nation of immigrants. You generally have to ask their names before you can tell where they came from. That is what I mean by assimilation, and it is what used to be meant by the Melting Pot. There was no praise of “diversity” for its own sake, nor should there be. It once was possible to learn how to be an American, in a way that you can hardly learn how to be a Swede or A Dane or a Korean, or a Japanese. I know Americans of Japanese descent whom you must see, not just hear, to distinguish them from Americans of European ancestry, although their better than usual grammar is beginning to make that less true. I could say the same of Americans of Cuban and Mexican origin, or rather of their children, who were encouraged to grow up as American.

But you cannot flood the melting pot and encourage people to jump out of it and expect it to work.

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supreme court

Dear Mr. Pournelle,
Merrick Garland, President Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court, was also highly qualified, and had been praised by both Democrats and Republicans. As you recall, Senate Republicans refused to consider his nomination. It appears that the Supreme Court is now politicized, perhaps irretrievably, and nominees will be political footballs.
My question is: how do we step back from this?
Yours,
Allan E. Johnson

Come now. When was the last Justice nominated in a Presidential election year confirmed before that election?

 

Supreme Court Justices Confirmed in Election Years

Jerry,
Since 1912:
Justice Pitney, 1912 (March) — President Taft (Republican), Senate control: Republican
Justice Brandeis, 1916 (July) — President Wilson (Democrat), Senate control: Democrat
Justice Clark, 1916 (July) — President Wilson (Democrat) Senate control: Democrat
Justice Cardozo, 1932 (February) — President Hoover (Republican), Senate control: Republican
Justice Murphy, 1940 (January) — President Roosevelt (Democrat), Senate control: Democrat
Justice Kennedy, 1988 (February) — President Reagan (Republican), Senate control: Democrat

Only once since 1912 has a Supreme Court nominee been confirmed by the opposing party in an election year. It also appears that in 1968, a heavily Democratic Senate refused to confirm Johnson’s (Democrat) appointment to the Supreme Court, at least in part because it was a Presidential election year. Reagan’s appointment of Kennedy seems to be the anomaly, but Kennedy was Reagan’s third attempt to fill the seat and Kennedy apparently was a Justice no one could find a way to disagree with without looking openly political about it.

Kevin L Keegan

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Separation of Powers; Superbowl LI; a correction; more on health care. The Map Is Not The Territory

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Amnesty International Boss Endorses “Jihad in self-defence”

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide.

James Burnham

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

We are a nation of assimilated immigrants.

Immigration without assimilation is invasion.

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I have had a mild cold that is not mild at all in that it pretty well saps my energy and leaves me sleepy. I discover that Roberta has had the same condition for a couple of days. We also have some other problems; the symptoms are sufficiently similar that I am pretty sure we’ve both got some form of crud. In my case it has the effect that my get up and go has got up and went, enough so that I don’t feel much like writing this tonight, so I’ll be brief, and most will be mail, with, alas, very brief comments; I’m typing badly and that’s sufficiently frustrating as to change my mood, which is likely to cause me to say things I shouldn’t – and if you could see the monstrosity I typed for ‘shouldn’t’ back in the last clause, you’d understand all too well.

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I just watched Superbowl LI. I had figured the New England Patriots to win, but when the first quarter ended Atlanta 21, New England 0, I more or less stopped watching. Fortunately I did watch the half time show and thus the amazing third quarter, and if course I watched the fourth quarter and the first Superbowl sudden death overtime. Atlanta won the toss for overtime and oddly enough elected to let New England receive, but that makes so little sense that I must be misinterpreting what happened. In any event, New England received, and promptly marched up the field to First and Goal, then touchdown winning the game. Sudden Death.

Lady Gaga’s half time show was spectacular, and didn’t make one political statement, or indeed any statement at all. I’m not a big fan of such spectacular events, but that’s my age showing. She certainly is an amazing athlete, and the event was well planned, huge, with tons of special effects, and probably sold a lot of Pepsi.

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A Federal Judge in Washington is trying to say that Trump’s executive orders regarding restricting immigration are not constitutional, and the need to suppress them is so urgent that he has issued a judicial order. This judicial order seems to me to be unconstitutional on its face, because he says that he finds that Trump’s finding of a threat to national security is not his finding, and is not in accord with the historical record since 0/11 2001.

This is sufficient judicial activism that I think it warrants a Bill of Impeachment by the House; there is little likelihood that the Senate would convict, but the impeachment would send a clear message. Whatever the scope of the Federal Judicial Branch it does not extend to finding of facts about foreign affairs; if there is one thing clear in constitutional law, it is that the President controls foreign policy and foreign affairs in general. Judges generally don’t find facts anyway; juries do that.

If the executive orders applied to US citizens., the courts could claim some jurisdiction under the constitution; but the President is in charge of who may and may not enter the United States absent relevant legislation: and the relevant legislation, black letter law, gives what amounts to absolute discretion to the President over non-citizen immigrants, specifically mentioning exclusion by country of origin. This appears to be a clear case of a judge saying that what he wants the law to be is in fact the law; it is an unconstitutional act, and deserves impeachment, if only for the encouragement of other judges. I doubt it will happen, but were I a representative I should certainly introduce such a Bill. I doubt it would pass, but I strongly believe in separation of powers, and Judges do not exist to protect non-citizens from being treated as threats to national security, That is the President’s job.

bubbles

Behold Bat Bot, the Flying First Robot Bat.

<http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/robots/a25002/behold-bat-bot/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Problem with a URL in the “Confirmation; Velikovsky…” post

There is a problem with a URL in the “Confirmation; Velikovsky…” post at https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/confirmation-velikovsky-first-dark-age-health-care-and-ethics-mining-the-moon-and-other-important-matters/
In the lead in to the article about Obama appointments to Federal jobs, the URL you posted is malformed, and points to your local cached copy. Oddly enough, I don’t have rights to access your user account on your personal machine. (Who knew?) Fortunately the correction is simple because the URL you want is embedded in the URL that was pasted.
The URL that was actually pasted:
mhtml:file://C:/Users/JerryP/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/Content.Outlook/T3NEI7AD/email.mht!https://federalsoup.com/articles/2017/01/20/agg-obama-staffers-get-permanent-federal-jobs.aspx?s=FD_230117
The URL you intended to paste:
https://federalsoup.com/articles/2017/01/20/agg-obama-staffers-get-permanent-federal-jobs.aspx?s=FD_230117
However, that article only consists of a three-sentence summary and a very few comments about this NY Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/us/trump-cabinet-picks-inauguration.html?_r=1

While you might want to point to the original article, the NYT article is about how ill-prepared the incoming administration was for the actual handover, but did not have to be because Chris Christie’s planning appears to have been competently if incompletely executed before he was removed from the Transition team. In spite of the thrust of the Federal Soup summary, it looks like the summary is talking about a different article entirely.

Here are two articles about the apparent “burrowing” of Obama appointees into career Civil Service jobs, all of which are more on point than the NYT article that the Federal Soup summary linked to:
http://nypost.com/2017/01/17/obama-rushes-to-fill-dozens-of-federal-jobs-before-leaving-office/
This one is about a specific case:
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/26/obama-political-appointee-burrows-into-permanent-job-at-va/

I don’t know which way the NY Post and the Daily Caller lean politically but the Caller’s article looks like a responsible piece of journalism, except for leading above the fold with a picture of a mole. Granted that the caption explains the photo choice, it still seems gimmicky for a serious news organization. But in newspapers, the writers didn’t usually get to pick the headline or select the photos that accompanied their articles. (If they were also the photographer or accompanied the photographer, the writer could make sure that certain shots were or were not taken, but which one got used was the Editor’s choice.)

Thanks for all you do for us!

–Gary P.

Thank you

bubbles

health care

Dear Mr. Pournelle,
I’ve been thinking about your comment: “As you point out, advances in science can develop procedures that, if given to all, would consume the national budget. They cannot be given to all; should they be available to those who can pay for them, but not to others? This is certainly inequality. Now what of those who contract a very expensive life threatening disease; a remedy, not precisely a cure but an effective treatment is found; should it be given to all those – a minority – who need it? Free? Means tested? It is also discovered that there is a rather simple way to make sure you never get that disease; the prevention is well known; yet there are some who continue to get it. Should they have the expensive remedy? Free? Make those who don’t get it pay for those who do?”
I find myself with questions, but nothing I trust in the way of answers. Any practicable system will at some point lead to triage: that will involve tragedies, and it will involve making decisions where there is no happy choice. I also presuppose we will find it impossible to do this well. We will be making decisions on the basis of inadequate information, and in any system there will be some incidence of waste, greed, and abuse. To paraphrase Mark Twain: we too are human, “and worse than that I can say of no man.”
In consequence, I need to stipulate that while I may find gross flaws in any proposal, that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t the best we can do. I don’t think there is any really satisfying way to do triage.
With that in mind: currently, we have what appears to be an example of a failing state-sponsored system in Britain’s National Health Service. Once rather excellent, it’s been the target of budget cuts for years. As a result, there aren’t enough beds in Britain’s hospitals: which means, for example, that surgeons have to decide which life-threatening emergency gets surgery, and who gets to wait on a gurney in the hallway for another couple days. Or, to address your question about disease and prevention, it’s being suggested that overweight patients will not be allowed to have hip or knee replacement until they lose weight. So yes, these questions are being asked, and nobody’s happy with the answers.
Any state-sponsored system will have to compete with other priorities, and the grim fact that it is paid for through taxes. If the system works, there’ll be the temptation to trim it a little. Then a little more.
Our own system has different problems. One of them, I think, is the “fiduciary responsibility” provision of laws governing any corporation with stockholders. I do see the point: if you’re responsible for other people’s money, you’ve got no right to direct it toward your private projects. The problem is, insisting that shareholder profit must *always* be the highest priority leads to its own unintended results. There’s plenty of profit in funding Viagra production, but not so much in the expensive research needed to develop new antibiotics before drug resistant bacteria whack us. As another correspondent pointed out, we’re paying a lot for this system, but the results are not commensurate. Decisions are being made: but I can’t say they’re being made well.
Likewise, insurance companies have an incentive — perhaps even a legal responsibility — to deny or delay coverage when any reasonable case can be made for that. In most cases, with standard treatments, insurance works well enough. If it didn’t, nobody would buy the stuff. But when we start getting toward the difficult decisions, this isn’t a system I’d want to trust with triage.
If allocation of limited medical resources were based on ability to pay, I would expect bad results. I’m remembering a hospital I used to visit regularly, more than twenty years ago. They built a new VIP ward; elegant rooms, special service. In this case, I’m not sure it did any serious harm to medical care for other people, and I was told it was a real money-maker for the hospital. But I don’t think much of this as a way to allocate scarce resources. I’d rather see people trained for heart surgery than for celebrity facelifts.
If resources for medical care were unlimited, a better argument might be made for “pay your way.” But I don’t believe wealth should carry an entitlement to lay claim to limited resources. Triage will be hard enough without people waving money at it.
Questions, not answers. In the end, I think the choices facing us with health care are unsettling enough it is not realistic to expect we’ll come up with a *satisfying* solution. And yet, these choices will in fact get made: by default, if not by decision. What I would hope for, is a “less bad” approach. Recognizing that it will be clumsy, there will be abuse, and unintended consequences will bite us.
What I would *not* trust, is any proposal offered as a way to fix everything, or as the obviously right approach. Not gonna happen.
I would hope for an approach which recognizes responsibility to the whole community, and does not leave the choices up to institutions or factions which will profit from (or be hurt by) the decisions. In our context, I think that means government involvement. We don’t have any other institutions which are even *allowed* to recognize that responsibility.
As a second factor: I think that in any situation where competing interests are involved, “checks and balances” are wise. In our economy, I don’t see any institution other than the federal government which has even a chance of balancing corporate power.
Will it do so? Or will they cozy up together? I can’t confidently predict an answer. But I don’t see a better candidate for checks and balances.
You raise important concerns about national defense, and about handing on debt to later generations; but those deserve separate response after I think about them more.
Yours,
Allan E. Johnson

This deserves a longer answer than I have the energy to prepare. Some is I think misconceived, but the thoughts are worth considering. It does not address the fundamental problem: why are my children obliged to accumulate debts to pay for elderly people who need medical care? We have spent more in the last eight years than in the last century, and much of it went for free stuff for the voters. It built a debt double the debt accumulated from George Washington until the inauguration of Obama, yet the infrastructure is not repaired. We do have generous health care, even for people whose health problems are self inflicted; to be paid for by borrowed money to be repaid by our grandchildren. Is this wise? And how is it ethical?

bubbles

Tabloids School Media!

I know this will rankle anyone who buys into academia a bit too much.

I like to call them “skeleton people”. They rattle on longer than even I would and they know the words but not the music. But, I know you can appreciate the form and the irony of these words once you consider the source:

<.>

Journalists can’t seem to get their stories straight in the opening weeks of the Trump administration, whether in tweets or in articles where falsehoods have been spread almost daily.

The mistakes have not just been from newer liberal news outlets such The Huffington Post or BuzzFeed, but from legacy media like Reuters, The Washington Post, and The New York Times.

What follows are several botched stories or conflicting reports since President Trump took office.

</>

http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/04/errors-from-the-press-are-piling-up-in-the-opening-weeks-of-the-trump-administration/

I stopped here out of respect for whatever beverage you may be holding as you read this. 😉 Pretty much anything negative you heard about Trump is a lie, according to this article but most of us did not need a UK tabloid to point that out to us — at least most of the people in my life didn’t and I would expect something similar or better as the case in yours.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

bubbles

Dark matter and simplified models

https://sinews.siam.org/Details-Page/dynamics-and-the-dark-matter-mystery
It looks like the great disconnect between predicted and actual galaxy rotation may be due not to new physics or “dark matter” but an overly simplified gravity model used by astronomers to make the prediction.
The model is not reality, and the map is not the territory

: john garnham

We need frequent reminders that we only know maps, and the map is not the territory. If you assume that the speed of propagation of gravity can very under certain conditions, and a gravitational field can be entailed – neither principle violates Newton – many observations can be explained without invoking unobservable substances or energies.

bubbles

Automation

Hello Dr Pournelle,
I just saw this 15 min video on automation & bots. It scared me. It showed what you’ve been saying about automation in a way that was as clear as anything I’ve seen.
The key point I took away was that for bots to work, they don’t have to be better, just make fewer mistakes.
Humans need not apply https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU

Rob M

bubbles

Paying for communist re-education centers

Hello Jerry,

“When I was young they built state colleges for those who were smart enough for college but couldn’t afford it.  I’m a beneficiary of that system. Now they loan you money to go to a school already paid for by taxpayers.  I say give the damned schools to the professors, and stop paying for them.  Let the professors collect money to pay for their salaries.  They demand to teach what they want to teach and tell me I am a Fascist and worse if I want them to teach what I want taught.  Fine.  Let them.  Just don’t make me pay for that.  They want to be paid to teach, let them go raise the money to pay themselves and all the administrators. Leave me out of it.”

My sentiments exactly.

Our problems began when legislators found that they could ensure re-election by identifying group constituencies and giving them money and power in exchange for the group constituencies contributing to and voting for their benefactors.  Young adults preparing to enter a society in which a ‘college education’ is mandatory constitute a VERY LARGE group.  

‘Higher Education’ is an endless rathole, down which we are apparently prepared to dump an infinite supply of other people’s money as an ‘investment in our future’  and opposition to which has become political suicide.  As a result, having a degree is now mandatory for essentially ALL non-menial employment.  To OBTAIN that degree means that the student has to subject himself to four (or more) years of forced indoctrination in the unacceptability of any political philosophy other than Marxist/communist/liberal/progressive/socialist/green/cover name du jour for the same thing, provided by conveniently installed higher education professors who ‘teach’ mandatory courses that require convincing regurgitation of the approved philosophy to obtain a passing grade.  And the coveted ‘degree’.

Governments should expend public funds ONLY to purchase the goods and services necessary to fund the necessary business of governing.  NO public funds should go to a private individual except to buy something that the individual is selling and that the government needs or to hire the individual as a government employee performing a constitutionally justified task.

If it is a sound ‘investment’ to loan a young person money so that he can purchase a college education, then banks should be chomping at the bit to do so.  Personally, based on the televised behavior of college students around the country subsequent to Trump’s election, I wouldn’t loan one a dollar to purchase a bottle of Dasani if he were on fire, let alone a few hundred $k to purchase a degree in (fill in the blank ethnic/sexual/racial) studies that will be used to justify the elimination of yet more of my former ‘rights’.

Bob Ludwick  

But unionized teachers have a constitutional right to teach what they want to teach, without regard to what the taxpayers want taught; how dare you question that? Don’t kids have a right to a real education? As defined of course by experts in education. Isn’t that in the Constitution? Judges say it is.

bubbles

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

bubbles

bubbles

Confirmation; Velikovsky; First Dark Age; Health Care and Ethics; Mining the Moon; and other important matters.

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Amnesty International Boss Endorses “Jihad in self-defence”

We are a nation of assimilated immigrants.

Immigration without assimilation is invasion.

bubbles

bubbles

Schumer in 2007: Don’t confirm any Bush Supreme Court nominee

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/schumer-in-2007-dont-confirm-any-bush-supreme-court-nominee/article/2583283

Sen. Chuck Schumer said in July 2007 that no George W. Bush nominee to the Supreme Court should be approved, except in extraordinary circumstances, 19 months before a new president was set to be inaugurated.

“We should not confirm any Bush nominee to the Supreme Court, except in extraordinary circumstances,” Schumer, a New York Democrat, said in prepared remarks to the American Constitution Society, a liberal legal organization. [sic]

(For a video of Schumer saying this flat out, see the linked video.)

So much for Schumer’s current theme that the Republicans stole a Supreme Court appointment by not confirming Mr. Obama’s appointment during the election year 2016. Schumer announced the new policy a decade ago. What is sauce for the goose…

Not that it is all that new a policy. It is the usual practice to wait for the results of the election if a USSC vacancy happens during a Presidential election year. If there is a new President, he will be more attuned to the will of the people than the losing President. Mr. Obama got two USSC Justices, the wise Latina Sonia Sotomayor, and Ms. Elena Kagan. It is clear that the nation still hopes for hope and change, but Mr. Obama’s hopes and changes were not the ones the people had been waiting for.

bubbles

They’re burning the campus at Berkeley. Perhaps we’ll have to borrow more money to pay for that.  It’s all right.  We’ll leave that debt for our grandchildren to pay, so it’s no skin off our noses.  of course the kids may then feel the need to riot against the taxes required of them to service that debt.

 

When I was young they built state colleges for those who were smart enough for college but couldn’t afford it.  I’m a beneficiary of that system. Now they loan you money to go to a school already paid for by taxpayers.  I say give the damned schools to the professors, and stop paying for them.  Let the professors collect money to pay for their salaries.  They demand to teach what they want to teach and tell me I am a Fascist and worse if I want them to teach what I want taught.  Fine.  Let them.  Just don’t make me pay for that.  They want to be paid to teach, let them go raise the money to pay themselves and all the administrators. Leave me out of it.

 

bubbles

If anyone still has any interest in The Velikovsky Affair, or if you do not even know what that means, there is an exhaustive discussion at http://www.jerrypournelle.com/science/velikovsky.htm. This was done in my old Front Page format, and is a compilation of dialogues and discussions that took place over several year; it attempts fairly to present the different views on the subject, as well as my own. Those not interested in Velikovsky – his astronomical theories range from implausible to ridiculous – may still find the discussion of the failures of Big Science to deal with him, Velikovsky’s correct hypothesis that there had been catastrophes in both historic and pre-historic times – this at a time when uniformitarianism was the consensus, and any theories of catastrophes were thoroughly rejected by scientific consensus as absurd and also a rejection of the theory of evolution, which was thought then to require very long periods of uniformity.

I said decades ago “It is hard for those who didn’t live through the 40’s and 50’s to realize just how firmly the uniformitarian hypothesis was rooted, and just how much ridicule was heaped on those who rejected it. To postulate catastrophes in history was to reject Darwin, and take sides with the Biblical literalists. Now of course this is not true: my high school science teachers at Christian Brothers believed in catastrophes in history for very good scientific reasons, and neither they nor the Roman church insisted on the literal truth of the Bible, Noah’s Flood as anything other than a local event, or Genesis in 7 literal days. I learned the theory of evolution in a Catholic school in the state of Tennessee (while the Scopes law was still on the books); I also was introduced to the riddle of what happened to produce the First Dark Age in the Bronze Age, to look underneath Exodus to see if there were not historical counterparts to the Biblical history, and the like; and I can guarantee you that people who had been taught that sort of thing were not welcomed as undergraduates in the 1950’s. Believe me. I was thought a troublemaker for asking about such things.”

There is also considerable discussion of the First Dark Age – Homeric times, when the idea of writing was lost ; who were the Philistines and do their descendants exist today; and the nature of Dark Ages which have lost not merely technologies, but the very memory that such technologies ever existed. That memory loss can exist even among people who live among walls they not only could not construct, but do not believe humans could ever have constructed them They must have been built by vanished Cyclopean Giants.

Fair warning: the discussion is long. And sufficiently fascinating that you may find yourself reading more than you attended. Of course for some that’s more interesting than reading about Trump fighting the alligators, or the Washington Establishment defending government by experienced people and instructions.

bubbles

SUBJ: Breaking news: Donald Trump cures cancer!

The resulting headlines:

_The New York Times_ “TRUMP DECLARES WAR ON CANCER DOCTORS”

_USA TODAY_ “CANCER CURE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE, MANY SCIENTISTS SAY”

_FORBES_ “TRUMP’S LATEST ACTION SENDS MEDICAL STOCKS CRASHING”

_NATIONAL REVIEW_ “WAS CANCER REALLY ALL THAT BAD??”

_The Washington Post_ “TRUMP’S MEDDLING MAY HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

– ONCOLOGISTS HARDEST HIT”

Shamelessly stolen from Ace Of Spades HQ website at http://ace.mu.nu/.

They’re having a contest there to see who can concoct the funniest headline. The entries in the comments are priceless.

Cordially,

John

Looks about right. I see they left off the Weekly Standard.

bubbles

closer to mining moon for trillions of dollars in riches

Hi Jerry,

Ran across this in the business news yesterday. Had heard nothing about it up until now. Unlike most space ventures with indefinite launch dates this project is slated to get off the ground this year.

Blair S.

Billionaire closer to mining moon for trillions of dollars in riches

Moon Express, the first private company in history to receive government permission to travel beyond Earth’s orbit, announced Tuesday that it raised another $20 million in private equity financing to fund its maiden lunar mission to take place in late 2017. This brings the total amount of private investment to $45 million from investors that include Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, Collaborative Fund and Autodesk.

What may have added impetus to investor interest in Moon Express is President Trump’s picks for the NASA transition team — Charles Miller and Chris Shank — and the leading candidate to become the next NASA administrator, GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine. All support commercial space ventures and manned exploration — including lunar missions.

If successful, the new MX-1 lunar lander from Moon Express would not only win the $20 million Google Lunar XPRIZE, it would also help jump-start a new era of space exploration. Up until now, only government-funded missions from the United States, China and Russia have landed on the moon.

Last year the U.S. government made a historic ruling to allow the company to engage in peaceful commercial lunar exploration and discovery following consultations with the FAA, White House, State Department and NASA.

The company’s challenge now is to meet the XPRIZE requirement: Make a soft landing on the moon, travel 500 meters across its surface, and transmit high-definition video and images back to Earth. All tasks must be done before the end of this year.

Full article: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/31/billionaire-closer-to-mining-moon-for-trillions-of-dollars-in-riches.html

Of course when I was at Galaxy, I thought we would have moon mines by 2010.I’ve always said that 90% of the resources easily available to mankind are not on this Earth.

bubbles

climate change temperature margin of error

Jerry,

You’ve questioned how anyone could report climate temperature changes measured in tenths of a degree. NOAA claims +/- 0.15C margin of error in their temperature data. I got a D in statistics so I’m not the guy to figure out how they got that number or why, in spite of all the variables and smoothing involved, they are so proud of their data.

The quote from Deke Arndt in the “beyond the data” blog: “For the global data, the 95% envelope is roughly +/-0.15C, but varies slightly each month/year based on data coverage. You can see exact values in our reports, for example the tables here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201611

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/beyond-2016-year-review

Sean

I didn’t get a D in experimental statistics, but no one has yet explained how we get a tenth of a degree accuracy out of observations made with 1950 equipment. In the late 50’s I was required to get temperatures of human skin to a 1/10 degree accuracy. I used very expensive thermocouple systems, with one of the thermocouples resting in a beaker of melting ice made from distilled water. In those times sea temperatures were got in a variety of ways including dipping up sea water and measuring with a hand held mercury thermometer; how does that give 1/10 degree accuracy? Averaging a bunch of numbers. All obtained in different and unknown way, does not give 1/10 unit accuracy; model makers do not seem to know how their source numbers are obtained. I don’t know what the average temperature of this room is to a tenth of a degree; or of my back yard; nor of Los Angeles. For right now. But by juggling numbers I can know the average for a whole year to a tenth of a degree? Velikovsky made more sense than that.

And in 1900? The sea temperature? Much less the yearly average for the Earth? To a tenth of a degree? Velikovsky was more interesting.

bubbles

Trump and management

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I believe you will find this blog entry by Scott Adams most fascinating.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/156628357041/is-president-trump-doing-management-wrong

“There are two basic styles of management. One is the cautious style of Fortune 500 companies. The other is the rapid-iteration and A/B testing style of entrepreneurs. Trump is bringing the latter style to the office. The markers for this style of management include:

1. Rapid and decisive hiring and firing.

2. Bias toward action.

3. Rapid A/B testing. Release the early beta version and judge reactions. Adjust accordingly.

4. Emphasis on the psychology of success. Entrepreneurial management includes lots of persuasion and bullshit because entrepreneurs have to fake it until they make it. In other words, they have to create demand via persuasion.

Compare that management style to a large company style. Big companies move slowly in both hiring and firing. They get caught in “analysis paralysis” because no one wants to be seen as making a mistake. And they don’t do rapid testing and iteration with consumers. They try to get it right before any customers see the product.

The world is watching Trump trade some “chaos” to get the benefits of entrepreneurial management. It’s fast and messy, but he’s testing in real time. He’s watching protests. He’s watching news coverage. He’s watching social media. And he’s rapidly adjusting as needed. The net effect of Trump’s bias for action in his first week is that he created a presidential brand of being the most action-oriented president of all time. Your first impression will be sticky. If things work out for Trump, you will forget any temporary “chaos” and remember him as the most effective president in history. Success fixes everything. Every entrepreneur knows that.”

I oppose the President some issues, but I’m rather pleased with his style and the speed with which he does things. Washington could use some shaking up and some of this management style.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Well, Trump is learning that before you drain the swamp you need to fight the alligators, and their press card carrying allies. He even had to fire the Acting Attorney General of the United States for insubordination; I hope we don’t have to pay her a pension. It was after all black letter law that the President has a lot of discretion over who gets into the US; Mr. Obama knew that well, and used the power. A lot. What one President can do, a successor can undo. It’s called a Republic.

bubbles

The United States Air Force Academy Doesn’t Train Warriors Anymore

Dr. Pournelle 

RE: The United States Air Force Academy Doesn’t Train Warriors Anymore 

For those who would rather not chase through 17 pages of OpsLens to find the story, here is the direct link: http://opslens.com/2017/01/17/usafa-training-pc-culture-obama-administration/

I see it was no accident that Imperial Stars 2: Republic and Empire contained both “Minor Ingredient” and “The Gods of the Copybook Headings.” 

Live long and prosper 

h lynn keith

No, it wasn’t.

bubbles

‘There is almost as much evidence, it seems, for man being hundreds of millions of years old as there is that modern man is 60,000 years old.’

<http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/increasingly-evolution-has-no-proof>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins <roland.dobbins@mac.com>

Yes, but that isn’t the consensus. One needs to be careful in saying things like that. And when does it get to be “Man”

bubbles

health care

You are a little of base with Canadian healthcare. First the US is not the first reserve it is India. We actually outsource it. Australia has a very interesting after many surveys and commissions they have a two tier system and the unions through their insurance schemes always use the most deluxe one. My wife whose occupation and financial position was given the choice of a private and very restricted cure for her carpal-tunnel problem in both wrists. . Public was a wait of 12 months (FREE) or she opted for the next week at $500,00. The Doctor amused me. The biggest opponent of private health care the biggest opponent of the Doctor who operated the private clinic had just phoned and wanted his knee fixed. He was a high union official. The doctor said no thanks.

mike hurcum

I confess that the last time I looked at this was years ago, probably when Hillary was just coming to the White House and planned to mind our health business for us. I do know physicians in Detroit who have a good cross-border list of patients, but again I haven’t discussed it with them recently.

US Big Pharma as I recall gives Canadians a big discount on drug prices, for a complex variety of reasons.

I understand that having a private competitor to public health care seems popular with the patients but is generally resisted by the governments involved, but again I am no expert. Doubtless I will receive a plethora of information; I generally do if I got something wrong.

Thanks.

bubbles

voting irregularities

Hello Jerry,
I am pleased beyond measure to read of the continued recoveries of Mrs. Pournelle and yourself.
Here in Michigan, before the courts stopped the recount, many ‘interesting’ things were discovered, including one Detroit precinct where the machines recorded 307 votes when only 52 ballots had actually been cast.
The State is graciously proclaiming Operator Error with regards to the optical ballot scanning machine.
I myself am reminded of the old adage: “Once is a coincidence, twice is incompetence, three times is enemy action.” What then is 255 times?
And this is just one single precinct in a once large city which remains a democratic stronghold. It doesn’t take much imagination at all to apply similar numbers to the large cities across the nation and watch Hillary’s alleged popular vote victory disappear.
Link to the story here:
http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/12/michigans-elections-bureau-audit-detroit-precincts/95349562/
As always, thank you for all you do.
Dave Porter

bubbles

health care

Dear Mr. Pournelle,
You write: “the subject should be, is this Constitutional (for the Federal Government) and is it a good idea. Subsumed under that second question is an all important one: can we afford it, or is the money more required for other needs? And that discussion I do not recall seeing.”
I agree. Let’s try that.
Regarding legitimacy: at this point, I would start with the argument that health care legislation would stand on constitutional grounds comparable to those which the courts have recognized for Social Security and Medicare; and that the Constitution gives the Congress broad powers to “provide for the general welfare.”
Can we afford it? That question is more difficult. One problem is that our current system provides us with no credible base line on cost and effectiveness. Here’s an interesting article in Consumer Reports:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2014/11/it-is-time-to-get-mad-about-the-outrageous-cost-of-health-care/index.htm
First, I think it’s necessary to stipulate that with continuing advances in medical technology it is increasingly the case that we are *capable* of providing medical care which no plausible economy can *afford.* That’s a problem. I have no brilliant solutions, but I do think we need to begin by recognizing that limits exist. Currently, those limits are often imposed by insurance companies. I don’t find that an optimal solution; but I won’t pretend that any other visible solution is very good either.
Beyond that: falling back, for the lack of anything better, on anecdotal evidence —
A few years back I read about a few East Coast hospitals who ran an interesting experiment. They found that overall costs of medical care could be significantly reduced by providing unusually strong home health care to a surprisingly small number of vulnerable patients. Readmission rates dropped significantly. The problem which arises is: while such a program can be effective, and reduces costs, it is to the economic disadvantage of any hospital that adopts it. Under free market assumptions, it won’t happen.
It also turns out that a quite disproportionate amount of the cost of medical care is attributable to hospital expenses in the last six months of life. This presents, I think, both ethical and practical quandaries. The notion of limiting medical care for older people (of whom I am now one) seems ethically intolerable. On the other hand, if I were offered the choice between keeping me “alive” but unconscious for three months, while running up extravagant hospital bills, and spending that same amount on young children, I’d have to go with the children.
Beyond that: one datum I’ve run across repeatedly in church work is that people without medical insurance far too often wind up in emergency rooms with problems that could have been more effectively treated, at less expense, earlier on. The bills with which they are then, in theory, presented are higher by several orders of magnitude than any bills which would be paid by insurance. And in fact they are not paid. I cannot imagine that this system is cost-effective.
In consequence, while I am not sure pertinent information is reliably available, I inclined to think that in terms both of effectiveness and of cost-effectiveness we could do a great deal better.
Is the money more required for other needs? That’s a difficult question. I’d need to ask: what might those needs be? And I’d also note that a similar argument has been raised with reference to space exploration; where one pertinent response is “and how many other uses for rocket fuel can you name?” Which is to say: if we do not spend these resources on health care, is it in fact the case that more resources will be available for other needs?
If I may be cynical: as I watch our infrastructure deteriorate while people scream about their taxes and then go buy snowmobiles, I’m not impressed. Some years back, in Minnesota, Governor Ventura thought the state’s “rainy day” fund was too high; so he pushed through a rebate of a few hundred dollars per resident. Which was received, and duly spent, with no apparent benefit. Then the rainy day came…
A further comment on “rights,” while continuing to think this isn’t a useful approach to health care:
Mr. White suggests, citing the French theorist Bastiat, that “since the people can only delegate the authority that they themselves possess, and “the people”, as a collective, cannot be deemed to possess any authority — or right — that a single person lacks, it follows that the state also cannot legitimately act against a person in any manner that would be forbidden to another person.” I think this assertion is highly problematic, and (attempting to use the term analytically rather than pejoratively) hard to distinguish from classical anarchism. As I read Mr. White’s description, on that basis any taxation by the state would be illegitimate, even for the purposes of national defense. Highway patrols would also be problematic: I, as a private citizen, cannot pull another driver over for speeding, and “road rage” incidents suggest it would be a very bad idea. On the whole, any society I would care to live in rightly prohibits private vengeance, the “wild justice” in place of which we have courts, police, and prisons. None of these functions, I think, can be legitimately exercised by private citizens. So I just don’t think this definition is sustainable.
Yours,
Allan E. Johnson

The Framers operated on the principle that governments were instituted to secure rights, and derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. This gives the government powers not legitimate for individual citizens; it does not take away rights from those citizens, but there must be some agreement on that those rights are, and who shall consent.

I think that survival of a nation is an important need for both government and governed. The governed are usually incapable of defending that right without government.

I believe the ethics of providing government services and paying for them by borrowing money and giving our children and grandchildren the debt ought to be questioned and discussed if we are going to discuss ethics; children have no say, yet they are governed, and do not consent. Yet they are to pay for goodies we give ourselves. We can feel very good about our generosity with other peoples money.

As you point out, advances in science can develop procedures that, if given to all, would consume the national budget. They cannot be given to all; should they be available to those who can pay for them, but not to others? This is certainly inequality.

Now what of those who contract a very expensive life threatening disease; a remedy, not precisely a cure but an effective treatment is found; should it be given to all those – a minority – who need it? Free? Means tested? It is also discovered that there is a rather simple way to make sure you never get that disease; the prevention is well known; yet there are some who continue to get it. Should they have the expensive remedy? Free? Make those who don’t get it pay for those who do?

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During his last days in office, former president Barack Obama made over 100 appointments before the new transition took over.

Obama staffers get permanent federal jobs — FederalSoup.com

   
 

Obama staffers get permanent federal jobs — FederalSoup.com

During his last days in office, former president Barack Obama made over 100 appointments before the new transiti…

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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