Category Archives: View

View 777 Thursday, June 13, 2013

WAR

Go back a few years. Imagine a CIA plot to get Iran which considers us the Great Satan and hates us, to declare war on al Qaeda and expend blood and treasure on exterminating al Qaeda – which long ago declared war on us, and which is the most easily defined enemy in our War of Terror. Imagine that al Qaeda might be induced to expend its resources fighting Hezbollah and Iran. Imagine that we could get our enemies to fight each other using whatever weapons they could muster, and expend their blood and treasure on exterminating each other, so that neither had very much to spend on killing Americans.

Come to the present, where that is happening. Israel after careful consideration has stayed out of the Syrian civil war on the grounds that the Assad Family has kept the peace with Israel for decades, while al Qaeda attacks Israelis. Imagine that somehow the trick has been made to work, and our enemies fight each other in a war in which the United States has no describable national interest.

Now imagine that having achieved that result we decide to enter the war.

Obama to step up military support of Syrian rebels

President Barack Obama has authorised sending weapons to Syrian rebels for the first time, U.S. officials said, after the White House disclosed that the United States has conclusive evidence President Bashar Assad’s government used chemical weapons against opposition forces trying to overthrow him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10119836/Obama-to-step-up-military-support-of-Syrian-rebels.html

Napoleon Bonaparte once said that one should never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. The problem comes when the incompetence is so grossly incompetent that one begins to wish for more competent malice…  Anatol France once said that a thief in power is to be preferred to a fool, for a thief may upon occasion take a vacation.

We have no national interest in Syria, and we have no obligations.  The Assad regime has been more tolerant of Christians and Bahai minorities than al Qaeda anywhere al Qaeda is in power. The rebels against Assad recently beheaded a 15 year old boy – after a trial – on a charge of blasphemy and insulting the Prophet. The al Qaeda insurgents have no chance of winning without powerful Western support, but they can make the war drag on a long time, neutralizing both Hezbollah and al Qaeda or at least slowing them down.  Whereupon the United States will give aid and comfort to our enemies no matter which side we choose to support.

Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, but one need not choose to support incompetence.

Obama apparently is rushing to enter his third war, and one in which we have few allies and no national interests at all. We do so on the basis of far less intelligence evidence about Assad’s use of Sarin than we had of Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.

Becky Gerritson, Tea Party activist, in testimony to the House of Representatives concerning IRS harassment of the Watumpka, Alabama Tea Party:

“I am not here as a serf or vassal. I am not begging my lords for mercy. I am a born free American woman, wife, mother, and citizen. And I’m telling my government that you’ve forgotten your place. It’s not your responsibility to look out for my well-being and monitor my speech. It’s not your right to assert an agenda. You post, the post that you occupy, exists to preserve American liberty. You’ve sworn to perform that duty. And you have faltered.

“This was a willful act of intimidation to discourage a point of view. What the government did to our little group in Watumpka, Alabama was un-American. It isn’t a matter of fining or arresting individuals. The individuals who sought to intimidate us were acting as they thought they should in a government culture that has little respect for its citizens. Many of the agents and agencies of the federal government do not understand that they are servants of the people. They think they are our masters, and they are mistaken.”

Speak Truth to Power, the Youth Movement says. Becky Gerritson of the Watumpka Alabama Tea Party has just done so. We should all be cheering.

: USA Supports al-Qaeda

The American people need constant reminding that we spawned and continue to work with al-Qaeda.  Here is the latest:

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The Obama administration has concluded that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government used chemical weapons against the rebels seeking to overthrow him and, in a major policy shift, President Obama has decided to supply military support to the rebels, the White House announced Thursday.

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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57589252/u.s.-syria-used-chemical-weapons-crossing-red-line/

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A Syrian rebel group’s pledge of allegiance to al-Qaeda’s replacement for Osama bin Laden suggests that the terrorist group’s influence is not waning and that it may take a greater role in the Western-backed fight to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad.

</>

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/04/11/syria-al-qaeda-connection/2075323/

Oceania is at war with East Asia; Oceania has always been at war with East Asia. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Access To Energy

Jerry,

You wrote, "The worst of it is that we didn’t need to put tax money into nuclear power. We needed only to end useless regulation and endless hearing and rehearing and reregulation." It would not hurt to stop federal subsidization of the fossil fuel industries (corporate tax breaks, sub-value land leases, etc.) that skew the economics of carbon energy sources. I don’t like paying more for energy, but I certainly don’t want to pay the tax subsidies for these corporations or borrow the money from China to pay for them. At least if I am paying more for my energy, it is in proportion to what I use, not in proportion to what my income is.

Kevin L Keegan

Of course I agree.

Home solar panels

Hi Jerry,

Much like Nuclear Fusion power, home roofing as solar panels always seems to be 10 years out. I used to work for our local utility, and microgeneration via rooftop solar panels was on the horizon back then. The economics are pretty complex. Roofing materials now can reach 50 year lifespans (even in hail prone areas). Aside from the currently high cost in producing the initial panels (more on that below), you run into the longevity of the solar materials (20 years) and the degradation of the panels over time (when used as shingles). So a solar roof would cost 3-4x a regular roof, and last less than half as long.

One advantage though, is that you get much higher square footage, so some of the new lower-efficiency, much cheaper, printed/flexible cells are an option. The hard part is getting a durable coating that can survive both UV and physical damage over a long period of time.

The utility I worked at was thinking that these would replace peak-load generation (which almost always is within daylight hours), but you’re exactly right. It does nothing for base load generation needs – and that’s the stuff under assault (coal is by far the most cost efficient). Battery technology hasn’t advanced far enough to put storage in the home – you’d need a separate shed to hold them, and they don’t last very long. Higher capacity units (lithium for example) are far too expensive and finicky. Large-scale capacitors might work, but they don’t do very well in high temperatures and tend to fail, well, in interesting ways.

The potential is there – and without the government interfering the market, we’d see a lot more innovation.

Cheers,

Doug

P.S. Side note on the lithium batteries – I flew the 787 twice this month. It’s an *AMAZING* aircraft – a completely different flight experience. Large windows that dim, higher humidity, lower O2 pressure, and much much much quieter. I’m spoiled!

Solar power panel costs have come down dramatically (and would come down more if the government were not putting a protective tariff on them, and in many places (depending on sunshine, what the home power is used for, local power rates, etc.) it is economical to do home rooftop solar.  One want to work the numbers for one’s situation,  Carefully.  It’s still close.

New Nuclear Power Plants are Currently Under Construction in USA

Hi Jerry-

Your comments about nuclear power seem to imply that no new construction is underway in the USA. Yet other sources indicate that new plants are being constructed:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/12/business/energy-environment/nuclear-powers-future-may-hinge-on-georgia-project.html?pagewanted=all

Best,

-Steve=

They are, but not many. The permits cost more than the actual construction, and it is never certain that a certificate allowing operation will ever be obtained.

View 777 Wednesday, June 12, 2013

I have been caught up in other matters. In searching for something else, I found this. It was originally written in 1983 and it is still relevant.

Mercenaries and Military Virtue

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/virtue.html

Subj: Elon Musk interview – Dragon thruster glitch and recovery details

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sumVEEAZ_w

Why did three of the four thruster pods fail? The three that failed had check valves of an improved design. 8-\

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

The greens could not be happier about the closure of the San Onofre nuclear power plant, which has never exposed anyone off site to any danger.

From Access to Energy

“Government energy suppression has cost the American people the greatest windfall of prosperity ever offered to any civilization in human history.

“Had the government not suppressed the development of nuclear power, our national gross domestic product would be more than double its current value and the standard of living of our people – especially the poor and the middle classes – would would be twice as high as it is today.

“Instead, we find our country with very serious economic problems, with a large part of our productive industries lost abroad, and with our landscape increasingly littered with windmills, which are little more than false advertising propaganda for an economically useless technology”

Alas it is all true. The worst of it is that we didn’t need to put tax money into nuclear power. We needed only to end useless regulation and endless hearing and rehearing and reregulation. Note that China has more than 50 nuclear plants under construction. The low cost energy from those will drive a thriving economy. The United States will have windmills, and some rooftop solar panels.

Home rooftop solar power for home consumption in daytime can even make economic sense for the user, so long as they are willing to adjust to being without much power on cloudy days, and don’t run the air conditioner at night.  Batteries are of course out of the question: at night you use the power grid.  But none of this will get the United States out of economic doldrums.  Solar panels are now cheap enough that in some places individual home owners may find them a good investment. Look at Access to Energy, or so some on line homework; and understand that you will never have power at night from solar panels without very expensive batteries.

Industrial power comes from large central plants, and that will continue for decades absent a really astounding breakthrough in low temperature fusion technology. although low cost natural gas can help decentralize a bit.

As I have said for many years, low cost energy is the solution to nearly all US economic and pollution problems.  Do not think that those who run the Department of Energy do not know this. They have a different agenda. If you have not read A Step Farther Out, I think you will like it.  It has held up well.

Low cost energy freely available and freedom are the sure keys to a wealthy society.  Wealthy societies can afford to be generous with all including the least productive.

View 776 Saturday, June 08, 2013

[Original title said 2012.  In a sense that is true: the 2012 election which was lost because the Tea Party did not get out enough votes, in part because their voter organizations were crippled by the IRS – that was a crucial election.  And now here we are.  I put 2012 inadvertently but I could defend using that date as critical.]

It has been a depressing week, full of nightmare.

Nightmare Number One.

Southern California Edison has given in to the regulators and the anti-Nuke demonstrator, and will permanently close the San Onofre nuclear power plant, leaving the regulators free to pounce on the rest of the nuclear power industry. The result will be more CO2 added to the atmosphere,

At the California Independent System Operator, the company that runs the power grid in most of the state, Steve Berberich, the chief executive, said that most of the replacement power had come from natural gas, and that if California’s goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per kilowatt-hour, “you’re moving in the wrong direction.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/business/san-onofre-nuclear-plant-in-california-to-close.html?_r=0

San Onofre never endangered anyone. There was never an off-site radiation leak, and what little leakage there was – all in the steam generating side of the plant, not anywhere near the nuclear reactors – was trivial and easily fixed. It resulted from some poor decisions on the part of SCE management, who bought new steam generation equipment from the wrong source. It was a silly decision. SCE was once about the best managed company I ever had close knowledge of, but after the California Grand Theft Power “Deregulation” which separated power generation and distribution and created the “Independent System Operator” things worsened. The California legislature had goodies for everyone as they created an atmosphere that let Enron manipulate energy prices and create bubbles, and the result were predictable: transfer of a lot of wealth from the power companies to legislature cronies, creation of a number of lucrative regulatory positions, and wild manipulation of electric power prices. SCE which had quietly operated as a regulated public utility which consistently delivered electric power and made reasonable but steady returns on investments to the stock holders – in other words operated as what used to be known as a Blue Chip company – got pulled into the growth madness bubble. More legislators and political consultants got rich, and power industry management was forced into participating in the bubbles. The result was predictable and I predicted it, but no one paid much attention. And meanwhile the No Nukes! crowd headed by people of the sort who like to tell the press that “The only physics I ever took was Ex-Lax, yuk, yuk” kept the pressure on, the regulators multiplied as Parkinson’s Law and my Iron Law predict, and the terror propaganda escalated. After Fukushima it reached a crescendo, and a tiny minor leak in the steam generation side of San Onofre put a just measurable quantity of Tritium into the building. Tritium has been used to make fishing lures glow, as well as for gun sights, and the amount released was in the order of the amount in those devices, but the media immediately feigned fear of a new Fukushima disaster right there near Mission San Juan Capistrano (actually it is many miles away from Capistrano) and the plant was shut down, the regulators held public hearing after public hearing, and since it costs about as much to run a nuclear plan when shut down as it does when it is generating power and earning revenue, the announcement of yet more public hearings did the trick. SCE is getting out of the nuclear power business. There will be losses to the stockholders, but even more losses to the rate payers. And of course more CO2 in the atmosphere.

I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. … Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never.

• John Adams, letter to John Taylor (15 April 1814).

The remedy, of course, was to form a Republic, and for over two hundred years the Republic endured. Now it is to be converted into a democracy, and the result is predictable and predicted. There are many good studies of what happens when a democracy commits suicide. If it is fortunate it gets a Claudius Caesar, but more often it must first endure a Caligula so that Claudius seems a blessed relief. And after Claudius as likely as not comes Nero. But I digress. For the moment we do not yet have Marius.

Then connection between the fall of the Republic and San Onofre is not direct or that strong, but the connection between the price of energy and the health of the economy is obvious; and the demand for ‘democracy’ rises to a flood in ‘bad’ economic times, even in a nation that sets its poverty level above the median earnings of most of the world, and keeps increasing those entitlements to the point of enormous debt.

Low cost energy can save the Republic. Perhaps fracking and natural gas will do that. Perhaps. Because the tide is running hard against nuclear power, which is over time the cheapest and safest reliable energy source we know of; and low cost power plus economic freedom remains the best way to produce the goods needed to satisfy the voters in a democracy.

Of course wealthy democracies have their historic problems. They are a great temptation. And without a sound economy they find they can no longer buy peace with silver bullets. Paying the Danegeld is not usually a good idea, but if you are indebt up to your eyeballs it isn’t even an option.

End of digression.

The nuclear industry has had a difficult year as it tries to compete with cheaper, abundant natural gas. San Onofre’s two reactors are the third and fourth reactors to be retired so far this year in the United States.

“It’s no secret that power markets have been radically changed by the development of shale gas,” said John Reed, an investment banker who specializes in nuclear reactors. “That changes the economics of any other power supply option, including nuclear.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/business/san-onofre-nuclear-plant-in-california-to-close.html

San Onofre has been handed over to the jackals. The regulators now regroup. You have not seen the last of this.

Nightmare Number Two

The evidence piles up: the IRS really and truly has become the arrogant highly-competent instrument of political terror out of the nightmares of conspiracy theorists.

The IRS Can’t Plead Incompetence

If the agency didn’t know what it was doing, it wouldn’t have done it so well.

Peggy Noonan

Quickly: Everyone agrees the Internal Revenue Service is, under current governmental structures, the proper agency to determine the legitimacy of applications for tax-exempt status. Everyone agrees the IRS has the duty to scrutinize each request, making sure that the organization meets relevant criteria. Everyone agrees groups requesting tax-exempt status must back up their requests with truthful answers and honest information.

Some ask, "Don’t conservatives know they have to be questioned like anyone else?" Yes, they do. Their grievance centers on the fact they have not been. They were targeted, and their rights violated.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323844804578529713576219412.html

Ms. Noonan gives details. As for example the now proved IRS leak of all the names and addresses of their contributors to their progressive liberal enemies. Hard fact. Definite proof of leak. Result so far, no one punished or dismissed and no felony charges filed. In another scandal a couple of people have been put on paid leave, which is to say free vacation. This is not likely to discourage anyone.

The task of the IRS was to put a primary hamper on all the conservative get out the vote civic organizations, and it sure did that, in Spades with Big Casino. Not one liberal or progressive get out the vote organization had similar problems; hundreds of conservative ones not only did, but continue to do so, as the IRS grinding machine continues to influence the 2014 Congressional election. That election is critical: if Ms. Pelosi becomes Speaker of the House, the final conversion of the US from a federal republic to a unified democracy will jump ahead probably beyond the recovery point. It is still possible for the US to turn back and forsake its foolish ways, although that will be difficult. If Ms. Pelosi becomes Speaker, it is unlikely ever to happen, world without end, amen. The Nanny State will become a reality, in which everything is regulated for your protection and safety. Of course California is attempting that now, but the results have not so far shown many of the benefits, as children continue to die at the hands of their mother’s latest boyfriend despite warning after warning from grandparents and teachers to the Child Welfare departments. And a teacher who fed his own semen to his pupils remains on the school system payroll. No one is ever fired. The Unions see to that. And under Speaker Pelosi expect more of the same, but with the exceptional ritual throwing to the wolves of some particularly egregious public worker chosen as an example. Depend upon it.

And the nightmares continue. The story is still developing, but apparently the government knows much more about each of us than we suspected, and has access to as much more as it likes. Of course government agencies like IRS would never leak that data to progressive allies – oops. The IRS has your tax return data. It doesn’t yet have access to your telephone and email and browsing search records – but colleagues in other agencies do. Of course no one would want to do favors to an IRS investigator.

From The Washington Post:

Documents: U.S. mining data from 9 leading Internet firms; companies deny knowledge

By Barton Gellman and Laura Poitras, Thursday, June 6, 2:43 PM

The National Security Agency and the FBI are tapping directly into the central servers of nine leading U.S. Internet companies, extracting audio and video chats, photographs, e-mails, documents, and connection logs that enable analysts to track foreign targets, according to a top-secret document obtained by The Washington Post.

The program, code-named PRISM, has not been made public until now. It may be the first of its kind. The NSA prides itself on stealing secrets and breaking codes, and it is accustomed to corporate partnerships that help it divert data traffic or sidestep barriers. But there has never been a Google or Facebook before, and it is unlikely that there are richer troves of valuable intelligence than the ones in Silicon Valley.

Equally unusual is the way the NSA extracts what it wants, according to the document: “Collection directly from the servers of these U.S. Service Providers: Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Facebook, PalTalk, AOL, Skype, YouTube, Apple.”

PRISM was launched from the ashes of President George W. Bush’s secret program of warrantless domestic surveillance in 2007, after news media disclosures, lawsuits and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court forced the president to look for new authority.

Congress obliged with the Protect America Act in 2007 and the FISA Amendments Act of 2008, which immunized private companies that cooperated voluntarily with U.S. intelligence collection. PRISM recruited its first partner, Microsoft, and began six years of rapidly growing data collection beneath the surface of a roiling national debate on surveillance and privacy. Late last year, when critics in Congress sought changes in the FISA Amendments Act, the only lawmakers who knew about PRISM were bound by oaths of office to hold their tongues.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/us-intelligence-mining-data-from-nine-us-internet-companies-in-broad-secret-program/2013/06/06/3a0c0da8-cebf-11e2-8845-d970ccb04497_print.html

Of course we can trust the reliable civil servants never to abuse this knowledge.

There were more nightmares last week, but surely those are enough for one dose.

Despair is a sin. It is also futile. The remedy to all this is more action. We know to a certainty what the battle ground will be. We know we have the resources to win it. There Is no reduction in the people sympathetic to the Tea Party. The President’s personal approval remains high but there is no longer much confidence in his ability to manage the affairs of the nation and even less conviction that Hope and Change was anything but a campaign promise. The realization that Barrack Hussein Obama was only a politician is sinking in.

The IRS will continue to harass conservative organizations but all the money they collect is tax paid money. The donor can’t claim a tax deduction but few ever thought they could. The people of the United States do not need the IRS permission to assemble and that includes on election day.

Winning the upcoming election will not be a final win for the friends of the Republic; but losing it could be a decisive event. All the markers indicate a conservative win – and the enemies of the Republic can read those indicators as well as we. That includes the IRS agents whose jobs and pensions are on the line.

It will not be an easy job.

View 776 Thursday, June 06, 2013

Anniversary of D Day, the most complex and expensive event in the history of mankind.

I have been bogged down all week. I started this two days ago. Still just checking in.

Every time we think the IRS scandal is as bad as it gets, it gets worse. Given that the IRS was used to cripple the get out the vote efforts of the Tea Party and all organizations claiming to be patriotic or civic duty directed, and all religious operations, and given that it was Obama’s ground game that won, it is hard not to conclude that this was the key to Obama’s win.

It also means that we know how to win in 2014 and 2016.

This was recommended to me some time ago. I read it and thought it worth recommending, but various distractions intervened. Rather than keep this as a Firefox tab, I recommend it to your attention without comment.

http://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/it-can-happen-here/?singlepage=true

I find myself increasingly approaching the state of the famous absent minded professor, who one day was walking through the Yard and was approached by some students who wanted an expansion of a lecture. They were impressed. Then he asked, “Gentlemen, in which direction was I going when you stopped me?” They pointed. He said, “Thank you. Good. I’ve had my lunch.”

I find I can focus on the subject at hand and give myself a good accounting, but I often have to refer to the Internet for details such as names and dates. The other day I could remember a phrase, and I knew who had said it, but I could not remember his name, or the name of the book in which it was said. Fortunately I could remember he had written A Tale of Two Cities. As I was Googling that work I realized that he had also written A Christmas Carol and that was written by Charles Dickens so I didn’t have to complete the search. It was an odd experience. On the other hand I can sometimes remember incidents that took place forty years ago. I gather it’s not uncommon. Fortunately I now live in the Internet age…

I am doing the last intro work for the California Reader. Thanks to those who have expressed interest in it. Real Soon Now

I’ll try to do a bit of mail tonight.  And if you haven’t read my rather ancient essay on the Voodoo Sciences recently, this would be a good time.  It’s still extremely relevant.

I was asked in another conference to show some pictures of where I work, and having done that I was about to erase the file when I realized that it might be of interest to some of you, so I paste it on to the bottom of tonight’s View.

My office has grown over the years, and the downstairs office suite where John Carr and any temporary associate editors worked is now my wife’s.

We rebuilt the front part of the house with this upstairs office suite for me. I actually do a good bit of creative work on a laptop in what used to be the room of the oldest son resident, but now that all four of them have moved into quarters of their own it is a combination guest room and monk’s cell – a room without Internet or distractions like telephones, and most of the books are high school text books. But I spend most of my time here,

I’ve been a bit under the weather and this place has slowly settled into the muck – it’s a real mess.

View of my work chair and the three computer screens I keep open. The window faces onto a second floor veranda where I keep humming bird feeders, and two big ceramic dishes that serve as bird baths and watering stations. There’s a brick waist high wall around the veranda and I put out bird seed most days. There has been the same family of California Jays since we moved here in 1968, and they have learned that if they yell loud enough I will go out and give them peanuts. The squirrels have learned to listen for the jays and come running. The resulting contest between jays and squirrels is a more even match than you might suppose. The chair is by Henry Miller and is expensive and I recommend anyone spending many hours in a chair to get one.

View from my chair into the conference room. Alas the conference table is covered with stuff. That’s the room in which we held the meeting that resulted in the SSX presentation to the White House. It eventually became a scale model of SSX called DC/X. That mess on the left is a counter on which I keep the chemistry lab of vitamins and other supplements. I am sure that about half of them do me good and the other half make expensive urine, but I don’t know which ones are effective and which aren’t so I take them all.

View of the conference room looking east from the west end.

And the same room looking west from the reading corner in the bay window on the east end.

Sorry the place is such a mess. I really do intend to clean it up and have a nice tea party for local SFWA members. My wife says I can’t invite anyone over until I do some cleanup and throwing out. I have to agree she’s right.

There’s a bit more, a room originally intended for the printer because this was designed before Laser printers and the Diablo was so loud you didn’t want to be in the same room with it, and another room of the northeast side of the conference room (dubbed the Great Hall) which is a pure store room. The printer room now holds the network server and cable modem and lots of tools, as well as a microwave and small refrigerator. It’s larger and more complicated than I need now, but in the 80’s we had meetings of the Space Advisory Council, and I was turning out a number of anthologies as well as fiction and three monthly science/computer columns, so all those facilities made more sense than they do now. But it’s a comfortable place to work, and a nice place to have friends over for tea.