Category Archives: View

View 789 Wednesday, September 11, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

This was Sable’s 11^th birthday. Sable is our red Siberian Husky whom we brought home on Friday, October 25, 2002. She was born on September 11, 2002. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/images/photos2002/sable1.html

In November last year we found out she had cancer in her right foreleg. The vet thought that if we cut off her leg she’d have about six months to live, otherwise considerably less. We had no difficulty deciding not to amputate her leg. She’s an active dog, and she would have been miserable as a cripple. We brought her home expecting her to get worse over time, and when she wasn’t enjoying life any longer we would have to do something about it; but until then she was acting like a happy dog, able to take walks although not go up the hill…

Well that was nearly a year ago. We had a good walk today, and she’s still a happy dog, not as active as she’d like to be, but she likes being with us. Of course she’s figured out that we’re letting her get away with begging and getting on the couch in the TV room and generally claiming entitlements – some would say we spoil her rotten – but we’re learning to deal with that too. We’re learning to say no again.

So we had a good day.

For most of the world 9-11 has a different meaning,

I fear I am not in the mood to discuss that day.

The President made about as good a speech as possible under the circumstances. He may have got us off the road to war.

I have yet to see evidence convincing to me that Assad ordered the use of Sarin in a Damascus suburb where it was sure to be known to the foreign press, and I have yet to be given a motive for his doing it. If the Sarin has been used to score a decisive gain in the civil war it might be convincing but to kill 1200 people? Send 1000 soldiers with 200 rounds each if all you want is a body count. For what purpose I can’t say. A couple of thousand random civilian casualties will not change a war of that magnitude.

The counter argument is that Assad isn’t really winning, and is getting desperate, and that he hasn’t read Machiavelli – he is willing to do his enemies a small injury, even at the cost of using war gas. All right, let’s use some but not much, and be sure to do it in a place where it is certain that the world will know it was used.

I have this from an old hand:

Sigint indicates that Assad didn’t order that attack

Dear Jerry:

Signal intercepts indicate that rogue elements in the Syrian military may have done the chemical attacks on their own. Assad is still technically responsible, but this may explain why he is now so ready to give those weapons up. If he can’t control them and their use, then he really is more vulnerable to outside military action, and not just from us. His neighbors will worry about them, too.

It is not an unreasonable hypothesis.

View 789 Tuesday, September 10, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

Ninety percent of the American people agree on sending Congress to Syria

The Onion

How to win in Syria.

 

Hi Jerry,

Someone has been reading your columns.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/09/05/mr-obama-youve-already-lost-syrian-war-here-how-to-win-big-one/

Cheers,

Doug=

A realist. There used to be a lot of us. The obvious Middle East Policy for the US is to develop our energy resources and let the Arabs learn to live on much lower budgets. And Herman Kahn thought that the 21st Century would be dominated by a US/Russian common interest.  It could still happen.

I have two questions I hope that President Obama will answer tonight:

We grant that Sarin was used in a Damascus suburb under rebel control. Can you show the evidence that this was ordered by Bashar as-Assad"?

Who does the United States want to be the winner of the Syrian Civil War?

The noon news closed with more confusion about the Syrian situation. Perhaps the President will accept Secretary Kerry’s ultimatum as the condition for not making an incredibly minor – oops, unbelievably small — strike in Syria. Perhaps Russia will collect all Syrian weapons of mass destruction.

Meanwhile I have yet to see any rational reason for Bashar al-Assad to have employed Sarin in a Damascus suburb. The casual statement by war enthusiasts that Assad was desperate and used them in the civil war because he was afraid of losing is nonsense: he isn’t losing and that suburb isn’t a vital asset one way or another – and indeed contains a number of Loyalists as well as rebels. Using Sarin there has no upside, and the downside of using Sarin anywhere is enormous. Had the Sarin knocked out a major rebel headquarters or troop concentration one might see the temptation for the regime to use it: but all it did was kill some unarmed civilians and children. Why would anyone be made enough to choose that target to bet his life on?

Meanwhile “Human Rights Groups” flood the Internet with stories about how the evidence is growing to show that Assad used war gasses == but when I read the actual story rather than the headline, I see growing evidence that Sarin was used, but none whatever on who used it. I hear rumors of satellite photographs of missile launches from Assad controlled territory landing in the relevant target areas, but it’s all hearsay – no one seems to have seen the photographs, only to have been told they exist. We are reminded of the aria on calumny in Mozart’s Barber of Seville.

I don’t say that Bashar al-Assad is a good guy who would never use war gasses on civilians; I don’t know his inner feelings and motivations. I do say he is not a fool, and using Sarin on a suburb of your own capital – where all the foreign news people will be concentrated and known to the Free Syria press agents – when there is no conceivable military purpose is the act of a fool. The only explanation other than that it was an act of military desperation – which it could not have been – has been by some neocon warriors who say it was a sheer act of defiance. Since Assad denies he ordered any use of Sarin, it’s a peculiar act of defiance. I defy you, oops, no, really, I didn’t do it—

We continue on the road to war. Now the President needs to justify keeping on a bumbling Secretary of State who make us all miss Hillary Clinton. And to convince the Congress to give him permission to make an unbelievably small air strike against Syria. Only the Russian say that we must not use force. There’s no one out there that we can trust, no side that we want to win the Syrian Civil War –

One course of action almost makes sense: The United States tells Syria to change dictators. Get rid of Assad or we will. What we did n Afghanistan. The difference is that we say in advance that Assad must Go, but once that has been accomplished we get out (if we ever got in there in the first place). Of course this asserts a US hegemony that will require a much larger military than we have at present – at least a 450 ship navy and even that is probably not enough – since we in effect are saying that we have become the Enforcer of World Order. At some point that will be opposed, either directly or through proxies, by China and Russia, both of whom have oppressed minorities willing to stage some kind of revolt. There are nations with unhappy minorities who will not easily assume the role of banana republics in the days of United Fruit. If we are going to bully the world into obeying it’s own ideals, we will need troops to do it. Even that won’t do it all – if we are going to adopt the role of competent empire, we will also need to learn how to recruit puppet kings and local auxiliary forces, build a Foreign Legion, levy tribute on our allies (Athens moved the Treasury of the Delian League to Athens) and – well, converting from Republic to competent Empire is a serious step.

But tonight we will find out what President Obama believes must be done.

Live Free or die.

‘Cunningham is charged with possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose and unauthorized possession of a weapon. He is to appear in court Sept. 26.’

<http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/canada/archives/2013/09/20130906-110915.html>

—

Roland Dobbins

PETERBOROUGH, ON – A 24-year-old man faces two charges after he used bear spray to fend off a man who was trying to mug him in the street Thursday, police say.

William Charles Cunningham was walking along Bethune St. at about 4:30 p.m. when another man allegedly tried to grab him and demanded cash.

Cunningham defended himself by spraying the robber in the face, police said.

Officers who responded to his call for help discovered he was carrying both the bear spray and a large folding knife, police said.

Cunningham is charged with possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose and unauthorized possession of a weapon. He is to appear in court Sept. 26.

Jacob Scott Collins, 26, is charged with robbery and breach of probation. He was scheduled to appear in court Friday.

This got my attention because of the dateline Peterborough and my failing eyesight: I saw it as Peterborough New Hampshire. New Hampshire has the state motto “Live free or die,” which is no bad first approximation as a first instruction on how to stay a free society. Then I saw that it WAS Peterborough, ON, so this is an example of where we are going rather than where we are. Perhaps. We will see.

Possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose, and unauthorized possession of a weapon. So it goes.

The last time I had any contact with Ontario police was when I was GOH ad a convention and the Regional Police raided the convention because one of the convention entertainments was a singing group that featured as part of their performance a stuffed pillow called ‘the Penisaurus’, which looked exactly like you think it does. Apparently although the event in the hotel ballroom was supposed to be for convention member only, some mundanes staying in the hotel begged their way past the door dragon for a look at the fan event, were horrified, and ran out to call the Regional Police.  I can see the scene at HQ; “Hey Sarge, they say there’s a bunch of science fiction people having a lewd costume party out at a hotel, how many want to volunteer for the raid?”  “Me, Me. Me.”  In any event about 20 cops showed up and raided the place.  Eventually the Penisaurus was banished, two girls were told to put on sweaters, and the police went away.  I have remembered Ontario ever since. Now I have something else to remember them by.

Be careful in New Orleans

WND EXCLUSIVE

Police not interested in brutal beating on tape

Officer tells victims ‘zero’ chance of finding attackers

A couple’s early-morning walk in the world famous French Quarter of New Orleans turned into a nightmare when they were beaten savagely by three black attackers in a horrifying scene that was caught on camera.

Then it got worse: The responding police officer decided it wasn’t worth filing a report.

According to the local CBS affiliate, the three perpetrators surrounded, verbally abused and then attacked the two victims as they walked through the French Quarter around 6 a.m. on Saturday.

The woman was punched in the mouth, while the man was tackled and had his face stomped as he lay helpless on the ground. The male victim suffered a concussion and a severely broken jaw that required surgery.

The video, despite breaks, caught most of the action leading up to the violence. It shows the two victims, both white, crossing the street as they are stalked by three young, African-American males who then surround and strike them.

After a break in the footage, the two victims are shown, clearly hurt. The surveillance camera also picked up their friend, who flagged down the obstinate officer for help and talked with him for about six minutes.

The officer is never seen getting out of his vehicle in the footage, but police officials stated to local media that he got out of his car sometime during his response.

Despite the evidence shown in the video and the report of the victims’ friend to the responding officer, the policeman ruled the call “unfounded” and didn’t write a report of the incident.

The officer, who was about to go off his shift at 7 a.m., even told the friend who detailed the crime to him that there was “zero” chance of the assailants being caught.

http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/police-not-interested-in-brutal-beating-on-tape/

I don’t know this web site, but it sounds like New Orleans.

A new instance of the Iron Law

“New Twist in Feud with Microlender.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323864604579065091325080238.html

 

Bangladesh To Pursue Legal Action Against Grameen’s Founder Yunus

Move Apparently Escalates a Long-Running Political Feud

 

By
• SYED ZAIN AL-MAHMOOD

DHAKA, Bangladesh—Bangladesh’s government on Monday instructed authorities to pursue legal action against the Nobel Prize-winning founder of Grameen Bank for alleged tax evasion, escalating a long-running apparent political feud.

The decision to move against Muhammad Yunus, former managing director of Grameen, a microlending pioneer credited with helping many rural Bangladeshis escape poverty, was taken at a cabinet meeting headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, according to cabinet secretary Musharraf Hossain Bhuiyan.

Which is to say that the government sees an enterprise it doesn’t pay for and doesn’t own, but which it doesn’t control, and it’s popular.  It’s beak wetting time.

WHO USED SARIN?

"It wasn’t the government of Bashar al-Assad that used sarin gas or any other gas in Ghouta. We are sure about this because we overheard a conversation between rebels. It pains me to say it because I’ve been a fierce supporter of the Free Syrian Army in its rightful fight for democracy since 2012."

<http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504735/20130909/syria-chemical-attack-assad-rebels-blame-hostage.htm>

—

Roland Dobbins

I have no other information on this but it makes more sense than that Assad decided to pluck Obama’s beard and blow it in his face without any gain from doing it.

However, we also have this from a well informed observer:

Briar Patch?

Jerry,

I predict we will soon see an outburst of Strange New Respect for Constitutional separation of powers and Congressional prerogatives on the part of the President. Consider that his usual tendency in these things is to delay and do nothing, from the (rumored) repeated postponements of the bin Laden raid, to the apparent refusal to allow any response to the Benghazi attack, to the prolonged inaction on Iranian nukes. His sudden call for Congressional approval before attacking Syria makes sense only as a way for him to acquire someone else to blame before he ignores all the advisers telling him that having drawn a red line he must now act. Go ahead, Congress – force him to do nothing – throw him in that briar patch!

It still looks to me most likely that the source of the nerve gas was the Syrian artillery that was bombarding the neighborhood at the time.

The radical jihadists among the rebels do seem entirely morally capable of doing such an attack as a false-flag operation, but their physical capability to pull it off undetected is less clear. That said, the chain of command involved seems very unclear – one widely reported communications intercept has a senior Syrian in the nominal chain of command calling the local artillery unit and yelling at them "what are you doing?!" once he heard nerve gas was used. Which could fit with any number of scenarios, of course.

Regardless, the Syrian motive for such an attack seems clear to me – they’re severely short of infantry capable of effectively clearing a defended urban neighborhood. If they can get away with using nerve gas without major repercussions – the jury’s still out – this problem is solved, between the actual gas capability and the morale effects on other would-be holdout neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, the only halfway plausible argument I’ve heard for our intervening in Syria is the effect on Iran’s leadership and their push for nuclear weapons – either intimidating or emboldening them, depending. It occurs to me to modestly propose that we eliminate the middleman and go to the root of the problem: Use this crisis to build up forces in the region, then pivot and comprehensively destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities by surprise.

That, alas, would require a CinC with imagination, nerve, and resolve.

Our complete lack in that department is the overwhelming practical argument for doing nothing, as both Congress and country seem to be rapidly concluding.

Porkypine

I do not see why a non-decisive war gas attack would ever be attractive to the Assad regime; I suppose it could be a rogue effort within the Alawite command structure, but I don’t find that likely either he regime knows that using Sarin is a desperation move and there is no evidence that Assad doesn’t think he can win this civil war – provided that the Great Powers don’t intervene against him.  Other than nukes, using Sarin is the move most likely to get the west to attack him. I think it more likely that this is a false flag operation against Assad than a disastrous mistake by the Alawites.

If we were to intervene, on whose side should we intervene? We can break things and kill people. Whom should we kill?

View 789 Monday, September 09, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

The Syrian story has become bizarre. John Kerry, an unlikely Secretary of State, said that if Bashar al-Assad were to turn over all his chemical weapons http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/09/us-syria-chemical-weapons-attack-john-kerry the US would not kill some Syrians and destroy Syrian property because someone in Syria used chemical weapons to kill some Syrians. Whether he meant that or not, President Putin immediately went to President Bashar Al-Assad and proposed that Syria turn in all his chemical weapons, and Assad said sure, I don’t need no chemical weapons. Don’t have many, who do I give them to?

Which is apparently where things stand now. There are rumors that President Obama is not pleased. There are rumors that President Putin is cackling gleefully. There are rumors that the US fleet has now been told to widen its target list. There are –

And that’s the way some people think it is, or at least they say so.

And why I tend to stay away from breaking news.

Tactics vs. Strategy

Dear Jerry,

Interesting & thought-provoking:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/09/09/sun-tzu-would-be-very-unhappy-with-obama-plans-for-syria-strike/?intcmp=HPBucket

Sun Tzu: “Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”

Syria is a symptom of a larger problem. Over the past 12 years (since the 9/11 attack) tactics to counter terror have distracted us from achieving any strategic focus.

We have now, as we have for the past decade, the finest, most lethal fighting force that mankind has ever seen.

There is no doubt that we would quickly dispatch any military challenger. From Fallujah, Iraq to Gardyz, Afghanistan, to other secret battles that are not yet public – we have won hundreds of tactical engagements and yet, somehow, we have yet to win a single strategic victory.

During World War II there was a clear strategy that was followed bring victory in that war in less than five years.

During the Cold War, there was a very clear strategy of containment and mutually assured destruction and all tactics were based on insuring the success of these larger strategies.

Our great tactical capacity now drives our Pentagon budget and creates the temptation for politicians to this lethal capability without regard to a strategy that would focus our efforts to achieve global success.

I would love to see some reasoned discussion of this, especially from a military point of view.

How’s Sable doing?

Thanks for all you do,

Tom Brendel

As I have observed before, if you want to be in a horse race you need a horse. If you want to intervene in a civil war you have to choose a side to support. If your goal is simply to keep everyone killing each other and you wish a pox on all their houses, you don’t want to go breaking things and killing people because someone will catch on. If you do not know your goals, it is hard to achieve them.

Our vet says Sable is the wonder dog: she was supposed to be dead months ago, but she’s a happy dog enjoying life. She got a hot spot on her tail and had to have some of it shaved, and she didn’t like that much, but that’s recovered. She doesn’t run much, and we bandage her cancer leg to protect it from being broken, and she does get a pain killer every day, but she enjoys a walk (in the evenings – it has been 100 here in LA most days – and she spends a lot of time being with us. Every day is a gift.

It’s lunch time.

Despair is a sin.

Obama’s Mideast policy

Hello Jerry,

Here is a short commentary on Obama’s Syrian (and Mideast in general) policy by a pundit in the ‘New Yorker’:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/08/obama-promises-syria-strike-will-have-no-objective.html

I must say that of the commentary that I have seen on the subject, this one is the one that best explains the policy as observed.

Bob Ludwick=

So even the New Yorker is on that track. Or is competing with the Onion.

View 788 Wednesday, September 04, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Never do any enemy a small injury.

Niccolò Machiavelli

“Congress is now the dog that caught the car.”

David Axelrod on President Obama’s Syria decision, August 2013

Syria:

Succinct and on point: http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/syria/articles/20130903.aspx#startofcomments

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

Who should we support?  Or we can break things and kill people.  Who should we kill?

Jerry Pournelle
Chaos Manor

We should support the Turks, the Iraqis, the Jordanians, the Israelis, the Lebanese (I know, I know… which ones…), and the French. Our only interest is AFTER the situation in Syria is decided – one way or the other. ‘Til then… hands off.

David Couvillon

Which is pretty close to my sentiment. We have allies. We support them, with trade, ammunition, whatever we think they need that is within our interest. Choosing a side in Lebanon isn’t as difficult as it looks: the old Christian-Druze-moderate Islam coalition that seeks independence from Syria still exists and could use our help – including our intervention when Israel gets unhappy with their inability to control border areas. It’s tricky, it’s not easy, but it’s sure easier than choosing a side in an active civil war.

Libya-Syria

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/special-report-we-all-thought-libya-had-moved-on–it-has-but-into-lawlessness-and-ruin-8797041.html

“A little under two years ago, Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, urged British businessmen to begin “packing their suitcases” and to fly to Libya to share in the reconstruction of the country and exploit an anticipated boom in natural resources.

“Yet now Libya has almost entirely stopped producing oil as the government loses control of much of the country to militia fighters.

“Mutinying security men have taken over oil ports on the Mediterranean and are seeking to sell crude oil on the black market. Ali Zeidan, Libya’s Prime Minister, has threatened to “bomb from the air and the sea” any oil tanker trying to pick up the illicit oil from the oil terminal guards, who are mostly former rebels who overthrew Muammar Gaddafi and have been on strike over low pay and alleged government corruption since July.

“As world attention focused on the coup in Egypt and the poison gas attack in Syria over the past two months, Libya has plunged unnoticed into its worst political and economic crisis since the defeat of Gaddafi two years ago. Government authority is disintegrating in all parts of the country putting in doubt claims by American, British and French politicians that Nato’s military action in Libya in 2011 was an outstanding example of a successful foreign military intervention which should be repeated in Syria.”

We did this by spending treasure in Libya. We have the opportunity to do this in Syria without spending treasure…

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

Libya was colonized by Italy during the colonial era before World War One, and as a victor in the Great War Italy got to keep its colonial assets while the British and French grabbed Mesopotamia, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Arabia, and other territories torn from the grasp of the dying Ottoman Empire. The Turks had never attempted to consolidate Iraq into a single province, and they kept the peace between the Palestinian Arabs and the incoming Zionist Israelis with difficulty. The Turks wanted out of the empire business, and being defeated by Imperialists got their wish.

Britain kept Egypt and the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, France got Lebanon and Syria, Ibn Saud got Arabia having displaced the Hashemites who had been legitimate Protectors of Mecca since the days of the Prophet, so the Hashemite brothers got Iraq and Jordan under a British protectorate agreement. France kept Algeria and its protectorates in the western Mediterranean.

Libya was not a united kingdom: it was an artificial entity of various tribes occupying the regions of Tripoli, Cyrenaica, and the interior with Tauregs and Berbers and others, and it was not unified until Mussolini decided he had enough of Libyan independence movements and forcibly pacified the Italian colonies, then incorporated the whole mess into metropolitan Italy—as the French had done with Algeria. There’s more, of course, since Italy joined the Allies after the King dismissed Mussolini and confined him to a fortress, and Skorzeny rescued him in a Storch, and no I am not making any of this up. The upshot was that an artificial state composed of warring tribes which had oil in Cyrenaica, fierce tribes in the Fezzan, and the remnants of an Italian culture in the West was created and consolidated by force, and held together by Khadafy. Civil war was likely at some point, and establishment of a liberal democracy encompassing the entire region was highly improbable if for no other reason than Cyrenaica has no motive to share oil revenue with Tripoli and the Fezzan, and neither Tripoli nor Fezzan has much of the makings of a stable middle class democracy or for that matter a viable economy.

As Colonel Couvillon observes, we achieved the unsatisfactory results existing at present in Libya by expending treasure; we have the opportunity to achieve similar results in Syria by doing nothing.

One, many years ago, a wise man told me in an appropriate situation, “Son, if you want to win a horse race, you have to have a horse.” Similar observations apply to both Libya and Syria: do we have a horse in either race? The British, French, Italians, Turks, Israelis, Jordanians, and Egyptians have strong interests in the Middle East. Our only real interest is oil – and we have it in our power to make Middle Eastern oil irrelevant to America by adopting our own resources – and development will create jobs here while costing less than war.

I recall that the invasion of Iraq was to cost $300 Billion. I said at the time that for that sum I could make the US pretty well energy independent and let the Arabs drink their oil. The costs have changed, but it’s still true. War is Hell, Sherman said. It is also expensive. Gold cannot get you good soldiers, but good soldiers can get you gold – except that we have foresworn any advantage we might gain from successful conquest. We get the expenses and the Hell, but none of the fruits of war. So it goes.

As to whether the United States has the physical, economic, and military ability to be the world policeman as we implant liberal democracy throughout the world – remember the End of History? – we don’t know because it’s a moot question: we don’t have the political stamina to try. We are not ruthless enough to have a policy of competent empire, and we are not rich enough to afford incompetent empire. If we wish to spread republican government we once knew how: we were the shining example of just how rich you could get as a nation of states: as the land of the free. Now we transform ourselves into something else.

The Congress should state it clearly: the President is authorized to take any military action in Syria that he deems necessary to protect the vital national interests of the United States. If he has further designs for the region he should state them and obtain a new authorization from Congress. This Congress supports the interests of the people of the United States and calls upon the President to protect them in the Syrian situation.

The costs of security:

Roland found this account: “We’re not detaining you. You just can’t leave.” Or Why a Hindu must not fly during Ramadan.

http://varnull.adityamukerjee.net/post/59021412512/dont-fly-during-ramadan

I intend to write considerably more on this, but it is taking time to gather and evaluate the data. It’s still important to keep in mind

Fifteen Years After Autism Panic, a Plague of Measles Erupts

Legions spurned a long-proven vaccine, putting a generation at risk

PORT TALBOT, Wales—When the telltale rash appeared behind Aleshia Jenkins’s ears, her grandmother knew exactly what caused it: a decision she’d made 15 years earlier.

Ms. Jenkins was an infant in 1998, when this region of southwest Wales was a hotbed of resistance to a vaccine for measles, mumps and rubella. Many here refused the vaccine for their children after a British doctor, Andrew Wakefield, suggested it might cause autism and a local newspaper heavily covered the fears. Resistance continued even after the autism link was disproved.

The bill has now come due.

A measles outbreak infected 1,219 people in southwest Wales between November 2012 and early July, compared with 105 cases in all of Wales in 2011.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323300004578555453881252798.html

There is considerably more to the story, of course. It is a matter of evaluations of risk: vaccinations can – indeed must if they are going to work – cause stress to the immune system. We have plenty of evidence regarding smallpox, polio, diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus – DPT shots were universal when I was a lad, all three at once – to know that the benefits far outweigh the risks.  We have plenty on measles and mumps.  It’s not quite so clear when you add rubella to the measles and mumps package. The consequences of overstressing the immune system in young children is still under study. The evidence is that in vast majorities the bad effects are small and the benefits large, but there remain doubts about just how many have suffered what bad side effects. At some point we’ll address this, but it has turned out to be more complex than it at first appears.