Monthly Archives: November 2015

Chaos Manor View, Friday, November 20, 2015

Boko Haram has pledged allegiance to the Caliphate. The Caliphate – ISIS, Daesh – is growing, and each addition strengthens its claim to be the legitimate ruler of the world, and the only true adherents to the Prophet. More than a year ago I said that it would take no more than a division – the 82^nd airborne would do – and some of the A-10’s to eradicate the Caliphate. In fact, a regiment would do, but it if you need a regiment to do a job, it will be done quicker and more thoroughly and with fewer casualties with a division. We had divisions that could be deployed in weeks; the campaign would be over in a year. Daesh would cease to exist.

Last summer I said it would take two divisions, and all the A-10’s. We are now up to three divisions – a corps — all the A-10 Thunderbolts, and a respectable number of air superiority assets to protect the Warthogs from SAMs. It could be done with less, but the costs would be higher, the casualties greater, and the success of the operation (including pursuit) much lower. Since ISIS is at war with us – on their own declaration – it must sooner or later be engaged. No one else is going to destroy them for us.

Every operation they undertake adds to the strength of their claim of legitimacy and the will of Allah. Defeat is the only remedy.

Today’s attack was in Mali; that is because there were Americans there, and Daesh can get to Mali. It was not in the United States because it is harder to get their assets here. It is not for want of trying, and a glance at the news will tell you. Bringing in Syrian refugees will remedy that. If we want to help refugees, give them new homes in territories taken from Daesh. That is not Obama’s plan, as he ignores the Congress and the Governors of more than half the states. He does not need the consent of the governed for his actions.

There were two editorial columns, not formally linked, in today’s Wall Street Journal that, taken together, make a fairly profound story. The first

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sweet-gig-of-being-a-bureaucrat-1447978181?alg=y

The Sweet Gig of Being a Bureaucrat

The average federal worker’s compensation is worth $119,934, nearly 80% higher than the average in the private economy.

By

Mac Zimmerman

Nov. 19, 2015 7:09 p.m. ET

318 COMMENTS

Here’s a story that is emblematic of life in Washington, D.C.: The Department of Veterans Affairs—a well-known sinkhole of mismanagement—handed out more than $142 million in bonuses last year. Taxpayers stumbling across this news might have been surprised by these rewards for bureaucratic incompetence, and perhaps they also got the sense that working for the federal government is a sweet gig. They’re right.

A review of the nation’s capital turns up ample evidence: In a report released last month, Cato Institute budget analyst Chris Edwards calculated that the average federal employee earned $84,153 in 2014—roughly 50% more than the average worker in the private economy. When you include benefits like health care and pensions, the average federal worker’s compensation rises to $119,934—nearly 80% higher than everyone else. “The federal government has become an elite island of secure and high-paid employment,” Mr. Edwards wrote, “separated from the ocean of average Americans competing in the economy.”

Pay for federal employees has grown significantly faster than for private employees. The percentage difference between the two has doubled in the past 25 years. Federal work is more lucrative than the average jobs in finance, information and professional fields.

Moreover, the number of federal employees salaried at more than $100,000 has grown by nearly 10% in the past five years, to more than 300,000. The 1,000 best-paid federal workers make a minimum of $216,000, with most of the highest echelon working at Veterans Affairs. Employees of little-known agencies such as the National Credit Union Administration and the Farm Credit Administration also top the list. [clip]

There is a great deal more. The United States has made getting a job on the civil service payroll the best career path for Americans. Of course civil servants are paid by money earned by those not in the civil service. The purpose of government is in part to collect that money, and of course employs highly paid civil servants to do that. Their taxes also go to bonuses for civil servants.

Salve, sclave.

The other article today goes with it.

Hounded Out of Business by Regulators

The company LabMD finally won its six-year battle with the FTC, but vindication came too late.

By

Dan Epstein

Nov. 19, 2015 7:11 p.m. ET

56 COMMENTS

Sometimes winning is still losing. That is certainly true for companies that find themselves caught in the cross hairs of the federal government. Since 2013, my organization has defended one such company, the cancer-screening LabMD, against meritless allegations from the Federal Trade Commission. Last Friday, the FTC’s chief administrative-law judge dismissed the agency’s complaint. But it was too late. The reputational damage and expense of a six-year federal investigation forced LabMD to close last year. [clip]

We are now ruled; India is hampered by its “permit raj”; the United states ids developing one which is more effective.

Total War Against ISIS! (Well, sorta)

I heard today that U.S. warplanes had, until very recently, been forbidden to hit ISIS tanker trucks because the civilian drivers might be killed.

That Rule of Engagement has apparently been changed and we now can bomb them — after 45 minutes warning.

Is this any way to fight a war???

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/2015/11/18/isis-oil-tankers-hit-for-first-time-with-45-minute-warning

https://pjmedia.com/blog/frustrated-pilots-vent-about-obamas-ineffective-air-war-against-isis-video

Lee

Hi Jerry –

A great post by Larry Correia about Paris, etc.:

• http://monsterhunternation.com/2015/11/16/thoughts-on-paris/

George

: ISIS and the end of the Schism

Jerry,

I wonder how long it will take for the Sunni and Shia Sects as well as all of the rest of Islam to realize that ISIS is an enemy to them all?

If the World is lucky ISIS may be the catalyst that unites all the rest of Islam into a religion of peace and tranquility after ISIS is wiped from the face of the Earth.

Perhaps Obama’s grand strategy to allow ISIS to grow large enough and powerful enough to force the rest of Islam to unite and assist in the extermination. If it is, it would be the first time Obama had a real strategy that might actually work.

I don’t think that it would be prudent to allow ISIS to grow large enough for such a strategy to bear fruit. My personal call would be to use whatever methods are required to completely eliminate the threat ASAP.

Bob Holmes

The Caliphate proclaims that it is the only legitimate ruler of the world, and as proof offers its success at ruling under strict Muslim law. That success in conquest is its validation. The various Muslim kingdoms and republics know this, but they are not strong enough to accomplish it; if they were strong enough they would be subject to the question: why don’t you impose the law of the Koran?

Why call it Daesh rather than ISIS or ISIL?

https://www.freewordcentre.com/blog/2015/02/daesh-isis-media-alice-guthrie/

[quote]

And so if the word is basically ‘ISIS’, but in Arabic, why are the people it describes in such a fury about it? Because they hear it, quite rightly, as a challenge to their legitimacy: a dismissal of their aspirations to define Islamic practice, to be ‘a state for all Muslims’

and – crucially – as a refusal to acknowledge and address them as such.

They want to be addressed as exactly what they claim to be, by people so in awe of them that they use the pompous, long and delusional name created by the group, not some funny-sounding made-up word. And here is the very simple key point that has been overlooked in all the anglophone press coverage I’ve seen: in Arabic, acronyms are not anything like as widely used as they are in English, and so arabophones are not as used to hearing them as anglophones are. Thus, the creation and use of a title that stands out as a nonsense neologism for an organisation like this one is inherently funny, disrespectful, and ultimately threatening of the organisation’s status. Khaled al-Haj Salih, the Syrian activist who coined the term back in 2013, says that initially even many of his fellow activists, resisting Daesh alongside him, were shocked by the idea of an Arabic acronym, and he had to justify it to them by referencing the tradition of acronyms being used as names by Palestinian organisations (such as Fatah). So saturated in acronyms are we in English that we struggle to imagine this, but it’s true.

All of this means that the name lends itself well to satire, and for the arabophones trying to resist Daesh, humour and satire are essential weapons in their nightmarish struggle. But the satirical weight of the word as a weapon, in the hands of the Syrian activists who have hewn it from the rock of their nightmare reality, does not just consist of the weirdness of acronyms. As well as being an acronym, it is also only one letter different from the word ‘daes داعس’ , meaning someone or something that crushes or tramples. Of course that doesn’t mean, as many articles have claimed, that ‘daesh’ is ‘another conjugation’ of the verb ‘to crush or trample’, nor that that is ‘a rough translation of one of the words in the acronym’ – it’s simply one letter different from this other word. Imagine if the acronym of ‘Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’

spelt out ‘S.H.I.D’ in English: activists and critics would certainly seize the opportunity to refer to the organisation as ‘shit’ – but I think it’s safe to say that no serious foreign media outlet would claim that ‘shit’ was another conjugation of the verb ‘shid’, nor a rough translation of it. Of course, that analogy is an unfair one, given the hegemonic global linguistic position of English, not to mention the heightened currency of scatological words; but there is a serious point to be made here about the anglophone media’s tendency to give up before it’s begun understanding non-European languages.

[end quote]

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

http://theoatmeal.stfi.re/comics/plane?sf=wvoywx

I do not disrespect the Caliphate; they are an enemy, but they have been honest from the beginning. They do not wage undeclared war.  They are open enemies; but enemies they are.

How cracking explains underwater volcanoes and the Hawaiian bend

“There has been speculation among geoscientists for decades that some underwater volcanoes form because of fracturing,” said Professor Dietmar Muller, from the University of Sydney’s School of Geosciences and an author on the research findings published in Nature Geoscience today.

“But this is the first comprehensive analysis of the rocks that form in this setting that confirms their origins.”

http://www.geologyin.com/2015/04/how-cracking-explains-underwater.html
Makes sense.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

Christmas Bells

I came across this the other day. It seems appropriate somehow.

This is the backstory –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJQ2ajszyhU

and this is the music –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1erCcsT5mc

I sent this to some friends. One asked, “Am I missing something? What does Christmas have to do with the suicidal self denial of secular humanism and Isis (Isil, et al.)?”

I replied, “Christmas doesn’t, as such, but the last, seldom sung verses do. It was a rough time, for the nation and for Longfellow personally, and it was easy to fall into despair. To most Christians despair is a sin. 2,000 years ago John wrote that the essence of Christianity is faith, hope (optimism) and love, and the greatest of these is love. He could well have added joy, happiness and appreciation for life and what it offers and it is these characteristics that most often appear in Christian song, story and poetry.

Longfellow pulled himself out of despair when he realized that it accomplished nothing and, in fact, it kept him from accomplishing anything. That simple little song says a lot.

These are “interesting times” – again. We’ve been there before, and ultimately emerged the stronger. And we will again unless we allow ourselves to sink into despair. That is what history tells me. And that is why I thought the story and song was appropriate.”

Whatever our enemies think they are doing they are really worshipping death, for every disagreement, for every problem the response is to kill and ultimately to die themselves. I can see why considering that they set themselves up to live pretty miserable lives. That is, I think, the root cause of the conflict, we cannot co-exist with such people, not because of what we want, but because of what they want.

Ralph DeCamp

I find the backstory inspiring, and the performance spectacular

The Right To Milk Bears

Dear Jerry:

Vermont’s foremost Ice Cream Collective seems to be sending mixed messages about the California drought

So much for  Senator Sanders constituency- I am surprised California is is not retaliating against ISIS with a pistachio embargo.

Russell  Seitz

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Wednesday, November 18, 2015

It’s Wednesday, and Niven, Barnes, and I had our book conference. The Avalon novel is progressing nicely, and it is interesting to see how many problems are inherent in populating a slower than light universe. They make for good stories.

immigrants and refugees
Dr. Pournelle,
You asked:
“Is there much point in analyzing the folly of admitting migrants, refugees, immigrants at this time? We have no way at all of vetting applicants.”
Actually, I do not think such an analysis would be a waste of time.
Just for the sake of argument, can we draw any analogies or come to any conclusions based on the admittance of refugees from e.g. Germany and Eastern Europe prior to and during WWII? Seems if Franklin Roosevelt’s administration had tightened up immigration quotas and turned people away, we might have been missing some keen minds and willing labor (and some fierce fighters) when we needed them most. (Not to mention that the movie Casablanca wouldn’t have had a good dramatic hook.) Why might such a line of reasoning, applied to the current situation, be invalid?
Looking forward to hearing of your Thanksgiving endeavors with gluten-free gravy,

-d

The refugees from Germany and Italy during the ‘30’s had many things in common, the most important of which was a general familiarity with and adherence to Western Civilization and its values. They did not espouse honor killings, female vaginal mutilation, Sharia Law, and other values quite at odds with the norm in America. They were apt candidates for the melting pot to become Americans; as Bill Buckley once observed, you could study to learn how to become an American in ways you could never study to learn to be a Swiss. They could be assimilated without great stress.

Good government is a blessing; or, if you don’t accept that, you must at least admit that it is rare, difficult to achieve, and even more difficult to keep. “A Republic, if you can keep it,” as Franklin put it. That has not changed since 1787, nor is it likely to. Diversity may be theoretically desirable, but the evidence that it leads to stability is thin. E Pluribus Unum used to be the National Motto; changing it to “In God we trust” may have been a mistake. Of course the goal is not one of forging a nation of identical believers, nor was it ever thought it would be; but seeking “diversity” – that is deliberately adding stress to the national unity – has always been a chancy enterprise. Republics degenerate as do other forms of government; one reason Jefferson thought that government which governs best governs least.

The 30’s refugees included a number of persons who were or became Communists; the result was a great deal of stress on the Republic. Could we tolerate an implacable enemy whose self-proclaimed goal was the destruction of our society in favor of one which, marched instead to the scientific end of history? An end which the Party knew only dimly, but since it was guided by the scientifically true principles of Marxism, it knew best. The dictatorship of the proletariat guided by the Party was inevitable; march with the flywheel of history, not against it. The way will be hard, and many will fall by the wayside, but the end of history is known; do not make yourself an enemy of the people. Join us.

It was decided that we could tolerate them, and we did; but that was government by an elite group, not of the people. The Enlightened knew best; and the Benighted masses had better learn that fast. The victim was self government, but after all, the people didn’t really know how to govern themselves, and had to be led, whether they liked it or not. It is always a temptation for the intelligent to use force to require the uninformed masses to follow where they lead; another reason why big government is dangerous. And so we accepted some immigrants; others like Karl Popper went to England.

But those emigrants were part of Western Civilization, and not all advocated that we join their version of the inevitable end of history; and opposed to them was another implacable enemy, equally dedicated to overthrow of “the rule of the classes” in favor of the masses led by the Enlightened, and which had even less adherence to principles we held dear. The Nazi’s were not, by pour standards, rational.

It happened that we were able to attract Einstein, Fermi, and many other refugees and immigrants who collectively added to our strength among others who added to stress; and of course a resilient Republic needs a certain degree of stress, if only to avoid stasis.

The question is one of transforming the values of the nation, abandoning the principle of E Pluribus Unum for one of perpetual diversity; and to do so under pressure without debate; and to do so against the will of the people: without the consent of the governed. Without debate or discussion.

: Refugee Terrorists in US

Well, they’ve arrested refugees who turned out to be terrorists; it looks like the FBI director was correct and we can’t properly vet these people. That being the case, I see no reason to take anyone that we can’t vet and I see no reason to make exceptions.

34 governors are refusing to take refugees with at least two threatening to use the National Guard.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3322649/The-enemy-Nearly-SEVENTY-arrested-America-ISIS-plots-include-refugees-given-safe-haven-turned-terror.html

And while this president used argumentum ad hominem in a pathetic attempt to attack the GOP position on pausing the refugee program by saying they’re afraid of widows and orphans, a female suicide bomber detonated her bombs in Paris:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/620250/Paris-terror-attacks-raid-dog-Diesel-killed-Islamic-State-ISIS

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

The President clearly is acting against the consent of the governed; his the office, his the power. That is not quite how the American government is supposed to work even in wartime. A better alternative would be for the US to take territory from ISIS and give it to the migrants to settle in.

A Foreign Legion in the Middle East, and Imperium

Dr. Pournelle,

You say:

“We also need what amounts to a Foreign Legion: an armed force that is permanently deployed overseas. Its job is to enforce the terms…”

If you have come to that conclusion, then it seems to me that we are merely discussing what sort of Empire we shall have, and the Republic is no longer an option.  A Republic may make war, and destroy its foes and even rebuild them as allies.  A Republic does not establish a permanent foreign constabulary.

Thanks,

Neil

France had their Foreign Legion from its creation by king Louis Philippe, through the Second Republic, Napoleon III, the Third Republic, Vichy, The Fourth Republic, to this day. It is true that a Foreign Legion is not a normal accoutrement of a Republic, and is more suitable to Empire; but it is possible, and at this point may be necessary for a rational foreign policy in the Near East. We cannot establish a protectorate without troops ready to defend them; such troops must not be citizen soldiers. The cost of that is too high. We cannot send our citizens overseas for most of their lives; yet we need forces ready to act in that foreign land.

Citizen soldiers can conquer territory from ISIS; we can give it to refugees and migrants and local authorities; but we cannot assure their stability without local forces. We cannot provide those local forces using citizen soldiers.

Creation of a Legion to serve US interests is a large topic, and we haven’t room for it here; but history shows that republics can have such military forces and remain a republic subject to consent of the governed.

Anonymous vs. ISIS?

Kevin D. Williamson is one of my favorite writers.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/427237/anonymous-declares-war-isis

[quote]

Compare Anonymous’s cocky declaration of war with the efforts of Senator Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.) and CIA Director John Brennan, who after the Paris attacks resumed their sad little campaign to convince Silicon Valley technology firms — sometimes bullying, sometimes wheedling — to simply design software and devices in such a way as to give government intelligence and law-enforcement operatives an easy “back door” into secure communication.

…

Can Uncle Stupid be trusted with a universal back door? There’s reason to think otherwise.

[end quote]

Anyone remember the late, un-lamented “Clipper Chip”?

The piece also reminded me — although it’s something of a stretch — of Dr. Pournelle’s story “Enforcer” in his book _High Justice_.

And of Vernor Vinge’s story, “True Names”.

Rod Montgomery

Exercise before Paris Attack

If you look into certain terrorist attacks, you’ll see an exercise occurred before the event, simulating the event. According to insurance company actuary tables, the odds of this happening are somewhere around 23 tetragillion to one. That’s a number with 42 zeros after it. Well, it happened again:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/hours-before-the-terror-attacks-paris-practiced-for-a-mass-shooting

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Parisian Preference Cascade?

Jerry,

Apropos the ISIL regime in western Mesopotamia, Winston Churchill famously said “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.”

Over the last few days, I’ve seen signs of a building US public consensus that our leadership, and troops, are needed to resolve the matter after all. What some of us have been saying since it happened, that failing to ramrod a status-of-forces deal and pulling all the troops out of Iraq was a disastrous error, seems suddenly to be the common wisdom.

This morning’s C-Span Washington Journal call-ins are one indication.

In recent years when people don’t care that much about an issue, thinly-disguised Dem partisan operatives tend to dominate the phone lines. This morning, they were crowded out on all three lines, Dem, Rep, and Independent, by people saying “leaving was a mistake – we need to go back.” (There were even multiple callers with African-American accents saying this President is in error on the point – something I’ve never heard before.)

Many of the callers (as well as, so far, half the governors in the

country) also said they don’t want refugees from the region brought here, given the obvious danger of ISIL operatives in the mix.

Over the past couple of days we’ve also begun hearing all this from media types who, pre-Paris, were reliably in the President’s pocket.

Mainstream reporters were suddenly aggressively questioning the President on the matter yesterday, forcing the President to spend most of an hour peevishly denying he ever made a mistake and refusing to consider any change of course.

Whether or not he admits error, the pressure on him to do more is suddenly huge. His history says he’ll resist as long as he can, and then do the minimum he thinks he can get away with – badly. I suspect we’re due for a rough next 14 months, with the problem more likely further enlarged by half-measures than solved.

The President who had Churchill’s bust removed from his office will probably continue proving Sir Winston right by trying everything else.

The wildcard in all this is the refugees. One of the points the President dug his heels in on yesterday was his plan to bring in thousands from the region with no realistic possibility of effective screening against ISIL operatives. If he doubles down on this one (he’s hinting at it and I wouldn’t bet against it) rather than backing down, he may finally discover an issue close enough to home for average Americans to generate a 67-Senator coalition against him.

Mind, I wouldn’t count on such a coalition holding together any longer than it takes to force him to back down on that one point. Unless, of course, he refuses to back down. Just how firmly divorced from reality is he on these issues? So far, pretty firmly.

interesting times

Porkypine

There is no indication that the President has the slightest intention of revising his policy of receiving refugee immigrants; he believes he has a moral obligation to do so, and anyone opposed to that is in error.

Islamic State plans deadly cyber attacks, says Britain – but how real is the threat? (ZD)

The UK today warned of terrorists targeting hospitals, power stations and air-traffic control systems. But for the moment a number of factors may stand in the way of those deadly ambitions.

By Steve Ranger | November 17, 2015 — 12:48 GMT (04:48 PST) |

Terrorists from the so-called Islamic State want to launch deadly cyber attacks against targets such as power stations, hospitals and air-traffic control systems in the UK, Chancellor George Osborne has said.

“The stakes could hardly be higher — if our electricity supply, or our air-traffic control, or our hospitals were successfully attacked online, the impact could be measured not just in terms of economic damage but of lives lost,” the Chancellor said in a speech at the headquarters of surveillance agency GCHQ.

Osborne said IS does not yet have the capability to kill by attacking the UK’s critical infrastructure but added: “We know they want it and are doing their best to build it. So when we talk about tackling ISIL, that means tackling their cyberthreat as well as the threat of their guns, bombs and knives.”

As a result of this danger and other threats, Osborne said the UK is almost doubling its cybersecurity spending to £1.9bn over five years.

But how likely is it that IS — or any terrorist group — could launch a deadly cyber attack?

Breaking into the industrial-control systems of a power station or chemical factory to cause damage is theoretically possible, especially because these systems are now being connected to the internet to help with, for example, remote monitoring.

And because these industrial-control systems were often built decades ago, they lack the security of more modern systems, making them potentially vulnerable to hackers. However, they also tend to be bespoke, so that attacking any system is likely to take significant reconnaissance, research and hard-to-find technical skills.

Those factors help explain why such attacks have until now only been thought of as an option for the largest nation states with significant resources and long-term planning. And so far no digital attack of this kind has lead to loss of life. [snip]

Macro viruses

Jerry,

     Interesting to note in light of your email about macro virus resurgence that the financial institution I’m on the security staff for has had a steep increase in that type of attack.  SANS described exactly the macro virus style we have been receiving.  The name of the file was different in each of the received emails of which there have been several dozen.

https://isc.sans.edu/forums/diary/Analyze+of+a+malicious+Word+document+with+an+embedded+payload/20377/

Please delete my signature information, I’d rather the senders of the virus didn’t decide to hit us harder.

Thanks,

It’s getting dangerous out there…

Important information

What should you do in an [terrorist] attack?

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34844518?utm_content=buffera243f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This article is very well written and the info is good — speaking as someone who has been a duly certified, sworn reserve police officer.

Of course, it is also written from a European standpoint, and so it does not assume that anyone in the victim group is armed. At least here in the US Southeast, that is an additional action to factor in. An option there is to take substantial cover, wait until gunfire has stopped or until the gunman is facing away from you, then take the shot(s), immediately ducking back under cover once you’ve popped as many as you can. Be aware that if there is more than one gunman, and you do not take all gunmen out, more than likely the others WILL return your fire. Hence the need for SUBSTANTIAL cover. Obviously as a police officer I would not have recommended this, but I’m not one anymore, and it’s what I’d do.

Be patient waiting for the gunman/men to give you an opening. This could take a bit, but wait for a GOOD opportunity. Otherwise you are wasting the chance and most likely your life.

NEVER come fully out from cover if you can avoid it, unless it is to take a high-probability chance to get to safety. Especially do not come fully out to take a shot. You will not have time to resume cover before the other perps fire at you. Expose only enough of yourself to take the shot, and minimize your profile as much as possible. Don’t know how? Go to the range and ask the rangemaster to show you, then practice taking those kinds of shots. Often.

Also be aware that, even for trained personnel like police, adrenaline will be very high, and consequently your hands will not be steady. Don’t try for a fancy shot — you will almost certainly miss. Don’t shoot to disarm; that’s a fancy shot and it’s next to impossible. Besides, if s/he has another gun, you’re toast. Police are often taught to fire in groups of 3, with the first two being center of mass shots, and the third being a groin shot. This targets:

• center of mass — spleen, liver, descending aorta, and to a lesser extent the spinal cord for incapacitation
• groin — junction of descending aorta and femoral arteries

Both target areas are rapid bleed-out sites. Shoot to take out the perp, whatever that ends up meaning. Chances are, it means the perp will be dead. I was taught that, if I had to draw my weapon, I should expect to use it; if I had to use it, I should expect the perp to be dead at the end of the encounter. This may sound cold, especially from me: Don’t worry about it. A terrorist doesn’t intend to leave the site alive anyway. Better you finish him before he can finish you.

Optimally, of course, you want to be so observant and cognizant of activity around you that you see something unusual shaping up and clear the area before it occurs.

I make no claim to being an expert; I am not. I merely offer what knowledge I possess for your consideration.

Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

One caveat. The terrorists in Paris were wearing suicide vests with TATP. This almost certainly will detonate from a large caliber impact. I don’t think that changes tactics – they still must be stopped to limit further casualties. All you can do is pray that nobody else is nearby and consider the blast protection of your cover point. Conversely, the one center of mass shot should suffice to neutralize the threat, though don’t let that stop your double tap.

Jim

Actually, an explosive vest will NOT necessarily detonate, Jim. The concept of a bullet impact detonating all explosives is a Hollywood image, not reality; otherwise mortar fireworks would all detonate on the ground. It very much depends on the type of explosive and the nature of the initiator.

Yes, I know you specified a particular explosive. But TATP (aka triacetone peroxide) is unstable, which is well known, and is also well known for detonating before it’s supposed to do. (It’s the child’s adage, “Fall down, go boom” — literally.) So while it is still used by terrorists, those who have a particular “mission” in mind will tend NOT to use it.

But that is one reason why I specified NOT to come completely out of your cover to take the shot, and to have substantial cover — one option that any other terrorists you don’t kill will have is to detonate their suicide vests. It definitely falls under the heading of enemy fire.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

The Quantum Source of Space-Time.

<http://www.nature.com/news/the-quantum-source-of-space-time-1.18797>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

You will see this again, with comments.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Monday, November 16, 2015

“The analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.”

Barrack Hussein Obama

Paris terror attacks: Mother of suspected suicide bomber Brahim Abdeslam says he ‘may have been stressed’

Family of Ibrahim Abdeslam says he may have blown himself up because of ‘stress’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-terror-attacks-mother-of-suicide-bomber-says-he-did-not-mean-to-kill-anyone-a6736076.html

President Obama Calls Rejection of Syrian Refugees a “Betrayal of Our Values”

The US isn’t changing its plans to let in 10,000 Syrian refugees.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/11/obama-calls-rejection-syrian-refugees-betrayal-our-values

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/09/world/middleeast/obama-isis-strategy.html?_r=0

Jan. 27, 2014

Obama Likens ISIS to ‘J.V. Team’

President Obama described the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, as the Sunni militant group was widely known at the time, as a junior varsity basketball team, playing down the strategic threat posed by the ISIS, compared with Al Qaeda.

“The analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a J.V. team puts on Lakers uniforms, that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant,” Mr. Obama told David Remnick of The New Yorker.

That same month, ISIS seized Fallujah, a city in Anbar Province, Iraq, and parts of Ramadi, the province’s capital.

May 28, 2014

Defining the Extremist Threat

In a speech at West Point, Mr. Obama said, “For the foreseeable future, the most direct threat to America at home and abroad remains terrorism.” But he sought to distance himself from Bush-era doctrine, saying, “A strategy that involves invading every country that harbors terrorist networks is naïve and unsustainable.”

As the president defended his decision not to intervene militarily in Syria, the Islamic State was planning its takeover of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. Less than two weeks later, the group’s fighters did just that.

Aug. 7, 2014

Action in Iraq

Mr. Obama authorized airstrikes against Islamic State militants advancing on the Iraqi Kurdish city of Erbil as well as threatening to wipe out thousands of Yazidis, a religious minority group, stranded on Mount Sinjar. A day later he vowed that the United States had no intention of “being the Iraqi air force.” Still, it was American airstrikes and humanitarian aid drops, along with Kurdish fighters, that ended the siege, in an operation that also involved the presence of a small number of American forces to assess the situation.

“We’re not going to let them create some caliphate through Syria and Iraq,” the president said in an interview with Thomas L. Friedman, a columnist for The New York Times, a day after he authorized the strikes. “But we can only do that if we know that we have got partners on the ground who are capable of filling the void.”

When you said you have not underestimated ISIS’s abilities. This is an organization you once described as a jayvee team that has now evolved into a force that has now occupied territory in Iraq and Syria and has now been able to use that safe haven to launch attacks on other parts of the world. How is that not underestimating their capabilities? And how is that contained, quite frankly? A lot of Americans has this frustration that they see that the United States has the greatest military in the world. It has the backing of nearly every other country in the world to take on ISIS. I guess the question is – why can’t we take out these bastards?

CNN reporter November 16, 2015 asks President Obama in press conference.

President Obama is said to have been annoyed by the question.

I have said for about a year now that we are at war with the Caliphate. Initially I said we could eliminate the Islamic State with an American division and the A-10 Thunderbolts. Later I said it would require two divisions and some air superiority forces. It will now require three divisions, all the SA-10’s, and considerable air superiority assets to protect the A-10’s from SAM and other defenses. The reason the requirement goes up is the growth of Daesh after each successful terrorist operation: the Caliphate gets floods of jihadi recruits, and their existing troops get a great morale boost. This raises the requirement for defeating them without high casualties.

Sending “just enough” troops to accomplish a mission is always a last resort; in the vast majority of situations, it is cheaper to send far more than enough. The cost of transportation will be higher, of course, but the casualties will be fewer, the combat shorter, the pursuit and elimination of the opposition more complete, and the success of the operation more complete. Trying to operate with “just enough” troops is sometimes necessary, but it is only preferable politically if at all.  It is seldom a profitable military option unless you need the unsent troops as a reserve for something else of importance.

It doesn’t cost that much to send more than you think you will need. You have to pay the soldiers anyway; their presence limits the cost of the operation. Often the enemy will not face overwhelming force, while they will fight if they think they can win or inflict significant casualties.

Britain sent Gordon to Khartoum to save money; the result was having to send a much larger force under Kitchener. So it goes.

Daesh claims to be the legitimate ruler of the world; the proof of that is that it rules, and enforces true Islamic law in the territories that it rules. If it has no territory to rule with true Islamic law, it is self-evident that it is not the true legitimate ruler of the world. This may not be obvious, but it is true and has been demonstrated time and again. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/23/islamic-state-works-to-establish-functioning-legit/?page=all https://news.vice.com/article/islamic-state-takes-a-stab-at-legitimacy-with-alleged-identification-cards-as-forces-lose-ground-in-iraq

The President is correct when he says that we need allies in the area capable of filling the void created when we conquer Middle East territories. This requires diplomatic skills that might be beyond Mr. Kerry’s abilities, but they aren’t beyond American abilities. 

The principles are simple enough: we do not seek to impose a government other than that whatever government emerges is not an enemy of the United States, and is tolerant.  We also need what amounts to a Foreign Legion: an armed force that is permanently deployed overseas. Its job is to enforce the terms: not an enemy of the UDS, and tolerant to domestic minorities. But that’s another discussion.

Is there much point in analyzing the folly of admitting migrants, refugees, immigrants at this time?  We have no way at all of vetting applicants.  We would do better to conquer an area from Daesh and giving it to the immigrants, possibly hiring some as mercenaries to assist them; always with the provision that the newly formed dependencies need not be friends to the United States but they must not be enemies; and that they must be tolerant of various tribal and religious minorities. Oil is fairly cheap, but there’s enough there to finance this, and enough work in extracting it to support the refugees. 

Daesh (ISIS) Strike in US?

You may have read about the car German police caught that had AK-47s and grenades with a GPS set for Paris. Did you read about the grenades and plastic explosives stolen from a French military base back in July?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3152461/Grenades-plastic-explosives-200-detonators-stolen-French-military-base-thieves-cut-wire-fence.html

I haven’t been able to research this to see if I could match the types of grenades and explosives with those used in the Paris attack. I expect someone else will do that before I get to it.

However, the recent raid on a military base in Massachusetts did not escape my attention:

http://www.whdh.com/story/30523224/fbi-weapons-missing-after-break-in-at-army-facility-in-worcester

As of yet, I have no details of what was taken but I would not be surprised if Daesh (ISIS) is behind this. The FBI recently admitted to have over 900 active investigations related to the terrorist group inside the United States.

I looked into the building that was raided, the Worcester Armory. The 1st Battalion, 181st Infantry Regiment is stationed there; this tells me the thieves could have access to claymore antipersonnel mines, fragmentation grenades, small arms, light machine guns (M249), sidearms, anti-tank weapons, massive casualty producing weapons e.g MK-19, M240B, etc.

We have enough threat inflation and fear mongering in this country; I don’t want to add to that but this situation should concern us.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

What ISIS Really Wants 

Jerry

I don’t know if you’ve seen this already:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

“People want to absolve Islam,” he said. “It’s this ‘Islam is a religion of peace’ mantra. As if there is such a thing as ‘Islam’! It’s what Muslims do, and how they interpret their texts.” Those texts are shared by all Sunni Muslims, not just the Islamic State. “And these guys have just as much legitimacy as anyone else.”

It will come as no surprise, at any rate.

Ed

Dear Dr. Pournelle,
I assume that you’ve already heard of the tragic occurrence in Paris. The first question on my mind, though, was what exactly the French intended to do about it. 
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/15/france-levels-isis-in-raqqa-after-paris-attack/
The answer is, conduct airstrikes against ISIS and ally with the Russians in a joint effort to destroy ISIS — and, of course, prop up Assad. 
It is a good plan, probably the best plan they could reasonably come up with.  The only bad thing about it is that we aren’t part of it — we’re being muscled out and steadily surrendering the Middle East to the Russian sphere of influence. If you can really call it “muscling out” when the Russians are simply stepping into the vacuum we left. 
Respectfully,

Brian P.

ISIS is at war with the US as well as France.  We could end ISIS at any time, for less cost than waiting will face us with; whether we want to be involved with territorial disputers in Mesopotamia, if one of the participants is at war with us, we have no real choice.  Of course if they are the junior varsity dressed up as Lakers they might not warrant our full attention, but they have repeatedly indicated that they are more than that, and are growing, not contained.  Containment requires that you contain the enemy and that time is not of the essence.  I do not believe that is the case here.  We must be ready to take advantage of the election. The Caliphate is not going away; it must be destroyed.  It has declared war on the American people.

Yale Student Shrieks At Prof For Denying Her ‘Safe Space’

 http://dailycaller.com/2015/11/06/yale-student-shrieks-at-prof-for-denying-her-safe-space-video/#ixzz3rgas7sBV

The Rise of the College Crybullies

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rise-of-the-college-crybullies-1447458587?alg=y

John DeChancie

8 November at 11:56 ·

Last nite I had a yen to hear a requiem mass. After hieing myself to St. Francis de Sales church in Sherman Oaks, I heard the Cherubini Requiem in C Minor, an edifying spiritual work indeed. Parts of it brought a tear to my eye. The St. Francis de Sales Choir and the Wagner Ensemble performed the work. The Dies Irae was especially powerful. The Ensemble sounded three times its size, and just as professional. The Choir? Marvelously full and resonant. The underrated Cherubini was Beethoven’s favorite composer. Thanks to Roberta Pournelle, who sings alto in the Choir, for the complimentary ticket.

John DeChancie

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Friday, November 13, 2015

Friday the Thirteenth Falls on Friday This Month

Everyone with an interest in education – and that is about everyone who reads – should read Eva Moskowitz

Why Students Need to Sit Up and Pay Attention

Our charters are guided by what I learned from a great public-school teacher: Distracted, misbehaving children aren’t learning.

By

Eva Moskowitz

http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-students-need-to-sit-up-and-pay-attention-1447373122

I doubt it says anything that would surprise you, but it is important, because a lot of public school teachers would be horrified by it.

I propose that school boards should have the right and obligation to fire for incompetence teachers who cannot keep good order and discipline in their classrooms. Teaching civility and self-control is one of the major purposes of public education, and if it isn’t being taught, what is the justification for tax support of the schools?

It may be necessary in some school districts to have classrooms where civility and self-control are the only important things taught, and those who refuse to be orderly in regular classrooms should be sent to them; distracting all the other students, talking back to the teacher, disrupting the class, and generally being a public nuisance in an institution supported by money collected by compulsion – taxes – is not a constitutional right in any state or nation I know of, nor should it be. Tolerating disruption – letting some express themselves at will – is depriving everyone in the class. And yes: if what is being taught is boring, as much of what I heard the second year in my two-grades-to-the-classroom grade schools was, there is still no right to disruption and incivility; and learning self-control is valuable even for bored kids. Teachers who keep good order and discipline are not necessarily competent; but those who don’t at least try are certainly incompetent, and firing them will improve the school.

There’s a lot wrong with the content of what is taught in our public schools; but failure to teach civility and self-control is intolerable.

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2015/11/03/a-venture-capitalist-searches-for-the-purpose-of-school-heres-what-he-found/

‘He walked out of a building, got in the car… we took the shot’: Pentagon chiefs reveal how Jihadi John was ‘evaporated’ in the street in midnight drone strike

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

For once, some good news.

I would not think that an all-out negative attack on Dr. Carson would be Donald Trump’s best approach to demonstrating he has the gravitas to be President.

On the same theme:

Republicans Are Ready to Rumble

Substantive arguments are healthy, but personal attacks aren’t. And unity gives Democrats an edge.

By

Peggy Noonan

Nov. 12, 2015 7:34 p.m. ET

http://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-are-ready-to-rumble-1447374852

Subject: Perhaps a New Record for Government Waste

If we thought HealthCare.gov was wasteful…how about $1 Billion to put one form online? What happened to that US Digital Services that was supposed to roam Washington and make these things work?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-decade-into-a-project-to-digitize-us-immigration-forms-just-1-is-online/2015/11/08/f63360fc-830e-11e5-a7ca-6ab6ec20f839_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_immigration910p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

—

Dwayne Phillips

Just shaking my head.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-decade-into-a-project-to-digitize-us-immigration-forms-just-1-is-online/2015/11/08/f63360fc-830e-11e5-a7ca-6ab6ec20f839_story.html

Heaving under mountains of paperwork, the government has spent more than $1 billion trying to replace its antiquated approach to managing immigration with a system of digitized records, online applications and a full suite of nearly 100 electronic forms.

A decade in, all that officials have to show for the effort is a single form that’s now available for online applications and a single type of fee that immigrants pay electronically. The 94 other forms can be filed only with paper.

John Harlow

Of the candidates for President, Mrs. Fiorina seems the only one seriously interested in government incompetence, and certainly one of the best qualified to deal with it. See also

https://www.aei.org/publication/the-regulators-yoke/

Another Big War
Could the U.S. mobilize for a major war today? In Parameters, Steven Metz suggests our greatest limitation might be logistical, stemming from the lack of excess industrial capacity (which differs starkly from pre-WWII). Another could be the fact that so many young people today do not meet the standards for military service. Large formations formed in the lead up to a major war would most probably have inferior equipment and men, and may not be able to carry out the mission. Thanks in advance for your response,

Nathan Jaco

There’s not much response to make; despite government hoopla, we remain in close to a depression, and have since 2008. We do not have surplus industrial capacity, and our schools aren’t turning out work-ready graduates. In 1941 we converted to a war economy and overwhelmed both Germany and Japan; it may not be so easy this time. Robots may help.

But our high tech advantages are not so great as they once were either.

How Free Speech Died on Campus

In a 2012 interview, Greg Lukianoff describes how universities became the most authoritarian institutions in America.

By

Sohrab Ahmari

Nov. 16, 2012 7:11 p.m. ET

New York

At Yale University, you can be prevented from putting an F. Scott Fitzgerald quote on your T-shirt. At Tufts, you can be censured for quoting certain passages from the Quran. Welcome to the most authoritarian institution in America: the modern university—”a bizarre, parallel dimension,” as Greg Lukianoff, president of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, calls it.

Mr. Lukianoff, a 38-year-old Stanford Law grad, has spent the past decade fighting free-speech battles on college campuses. The latest was last week at Fordham University, where President Joseph McShane scolded College Republicans for the sin of inviting Ann Coulter to speak. [snip]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323894704578115440209134854

To be decided: why should taxpayers support this sort of thing? Harvard and Yale can do as they wish; but the state universities and colleges were established to aid qualified students not able to go to private institutions. Should taxes pay for intolerance of this kind? Certainly those who accept public largess are subject to stricter rules than those who do not. Universities supported by taxes are public, not private, institutions. But surely being subject to a diversity of views is part of a good education?

The Death of College Sports

The University of Missouri football team has just killed college sports. They have showed that if the football team threatens to not play a game ($1 million fine to the university) the university President and Chancellor will resign. Taken to its logical conclusion — an idea fraught with peril — a football team can demand that admission policies and everything else be changed at a university or they will strike. Imagine A BIG BIG BIG time football program like at U of Alabama or Ohio State U threatening strike.

Another logical conclusion is that those who operate state universities, a.k.a. state legislatures, cannot allow a situation where 40 students, who happen to be on the football team, dictate policy. They have inadvertently given economic power to those students. Hence, they will remove the football program from the university.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2015/11/09/missouris-student-government-calls-for-university-presidents-removal/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_missresignation-1124am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

It will be interesting to see what happens at the University of Missouri.

Alumina smelting
Smelting Bauxite into Aluminum uses huge amounts or electricity. To meet military needs (and other) The Bonneville Dams on the Columbia were built to supply this power cheaply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dams_in_the_Columbia_River_watershed
In the eighties and nineties increased demand found Kaiser and others selling their power south at a profit higher than making aluminum. No good idea is safe from government and they changed the rules and started charging market clearing rates for the power.
Pricing US aluminum smelters out of market.
The results of increased recycling of cans and waste aluminum has also reduced US price points further.

Tom Weaver

As everyone used to know —I believe I learned it in 6^th grade – aluminum is made where electricity is cheap, not where bauxite is found; it’s cheaper to ship bauxite. Energy is ultimately the governing price of most everything. The pipeline from Canada would have been important, and perhaps will be after the election.

We are not building power plants.  Nuclear fission plants are “green” and emit no CO2, but it is impossible to build them because of regulation upon regulation.  Coal works but is messy and creates waste.  Natural gas would be reasonable but creates CO2.  None of this discourages China or India who are building all three, and will become economically much stronger.

Make of this what you will

http://www.independent.co.uk/student/shu/how-xbox-kinect-can-transform-breasts-literally-a6721051.html

FBI expands probe of Clinton emails, launches independent classification review

By Catherine Herridge, Pamela Browne

The FBI has expanded its probe of Hillary Clinton’s emails, with agents exploring whether multiple statements violate a federal false statements statute, according to intelligence sources familiar with the ongoing case.

Fox News is told agents are looking at U.S. Code 18, Section 1001, which pertains to “materially false” statements given either in writing, orally or through a third party. Violations also include pressuring a third party to conspire in a cover-up. Each felony violation is subject to five years in prison.

This phase represents an expansion of the FBI probe, which is also exploring potential violations of an Espionage Act provision relating to “gross negligence” in the handling of national defense information. [snip]

Does this affect the election?

In Case you missed this

Miranda Devine: Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate

http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineers-discovery-will-change-climate-change-debate/story-fnii5thn-1227555674611

I have seen no refutation.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.