Monthly Archives: March 2014

View 816 Monday, March 17, 2014

St. Patrick’s Day

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

.

The President continues to say that he will never recognize the validity of the Crimean plebiscite despite the widespread views of foreign visitors to Crimea that it was in fact overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia; and hints darkly of the terrible punishments Russia will have to endure now. President Putin does not seem to by paying much attention. The Germans are concerned because the real costs of the economic war President Obama is eager to declare will fall on Germany.

I spent yesterday at a paperback book fair and signing, and as usual after the book signing I had dinner with Larry Niven, Tim Powers, Karen Anderson, and John DeChancie. While at the fair I got a chance to talk to some other authors. This annual thing is a bit like the old SF conventions were in the early days, a place for fans and authors to get together and talk a bit. Modern conventions are bigger and more crowded, and better organized which rally means there isn’t much chance for just talking shop with other writers. We had a great dinner at the Glendale Outback.

Today I have a little more hearing in my left ear. Not much. It’s not loud enough for understanding. But it makes me think it’s possible they can reprogram the hearing aids. Alas, COSTCO says it will be three weeks before I can get an appointment for that. Disappointing, almost depressing. But nothing for it.

I had other things to say but I got this:

Hello Jerry,

You like opera. Therefore, you will like this.

It came from a Dutch friend locally and is from the Dutch version of ‘American Idol’ (???) or something similar.

If you got it from someone else, sorry for the duplication. If not, enjoy:

"This little 9 year old girl has had no

singing lessons, and was just getting over a cold. But she decided to show-up for her audition on " Holland ‘s Got Talent" anyway.

For those few of you that don’t speak Dutch, the video is sub-titled, although you won’t need those for the singing part.

<https://youtube.googleapis.com/v/qDqTBlKU4CE#&autoplay=1>

Bob Ludwick

This is a nine year old girl singing the ingénue’s song to her father from Gianni Schicchi, and – well you have to watch it. One of the judges wondered if it were Maria Callas singing it. Then in the final she sang nessun dorma from Turandot. I have never heard this song – which was Pavarotti’s signum song, and clearly written for a tenor – sung by a soprano before. It is startlingly beautiful. This girl is very likely to become one of the great opera donna’s of all time. She has great poise and aplomb. If you have any interest in opera, go listen to her, and when that’s finished choose some of her other performances. She is astonishing.

I had other things I thought I would say, but we have both been feeling a little down today, and I have some other work to be done.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

View 816 Sunday, March 16, 2014

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

As expected, the Crimea plebiscite went overwhelmingly for secession from Ukraine and joining Russia. The President of the United States has his view. “President Obama spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday afternoon, telling him the Crimean referendum would never be recognized by the United States and the international community.” I have not heard President Putin’s answer, but it may be that he has not comment at all.

The President has words about sanctions, and even about assistance to Ukraine.

President Putin, meanwhile, needs Russians. Crimea is an easy source of Russians, and he has them. East Ukraine is another, and we have yet to see what he will do to incorporate them into the new Russian empire, but we may be sure he has plans.

Machiavelli cautioned his readers never to do one’s enemy a small injury.

The Cossacks have had many relationships with the government of Russia. Most joined the White Army in the civil war following the Bolshevik revolution, and Stalin tried to eliminate them, as he used starvation to reduce the Ukraine to servitude. (See Harvest of Sorrow). Some joined the German Army after the German move against Russia. Some have bided their time since the dissolution of the USSR, and are now moving to resume their old role as Imperial Guards. The Cossacks have been moving into the Crimea for decades. For more on the Cossacks see http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/

If all this seems to lead to no conclusions, what conclusions would you like? We don’t really know the divisions within the Mainland Ukraine, but we can be very sure that a good 2/3 of the people of the Crimea would prefer to be part of the USSR rather than Ukraine, particularly if Ukraine actually tries to join NATO. That latter is not assured under any circumstances; think of the USSR inviting Nicaragua to join the Warsaw Treaty Organization at any point during the Cold War.

I wonder if I ought to be refurbishing my fallout shelter?

As to the Malaysian 777, it is now the consensus that it was taken in an act of piracy; as to what has happened to it, we can only speculate.

So, it looks like the captain did it.

<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581817/Doomed-airliner-pilot-political-fanatic-Hours-taking-control-flight-MH370-attended-trial-jailed-opposition-leader-sodomite.html>

The Malaysians lied and stalled because of the loss of face of having this aircraft doubling over their airspace, showing up on military radar, and then the military doing nothing – not even noticing, apparently. And there’s also the loss of face of having a Malaysian airplane captain do this.

——–

Roland Dobbins

If this is the explanation then we know that the aircraft was piloted by an experienced and competent person; which translates to saying that the maximum range of the aircraft just got larger, particularly if he had help. If the passengers, killed or rendered unconscious by a period of cabin pressure or 30,000 feet or so, were thrown overboard the flight range is increased even more. Even with all passengers intact the range is far enough to have reached Pakistan and Iran; and, of course, China.

Pakistan is a leaky operation, and whether a Malaysian airplane could be landed at a Pakistani airfield without word getting out is problematic. An intelligent planner – and this was well planned – probably would not assume that was possible. Iran is another matter. Of course it would be possible in China, but I can conceive of no rational reason for the Chinese to hijack their own airplane and conceal it.

And of course the notion that the airplane has landed safely in Iran or anywhere else it pure speculation based only on its possibility; there’s no evidence for anything like that; still, as the search of the seas continues without anything whatever being found raises the probability that it is successfully on the ground. Understand that doubling a small probability is still a small probability.

And the following asks the right questions which perplex many:

Question about missing Malaysia Airlines plane

Jerry,

To me, the most shocking thing about this story is that it appears that the US intelligence community does not know the location of the plane. It would be a surprise to learn that we do not have a satellite with radar or another sensor that can track airplanes at any location globally.

If the US does have this information, its existence might be classified at a high level. If the plane crashed at sea, the US government could find a way to point out suitable locations to search, much like what happened during WWII with deciphered Enigma traffic and submarines and other ships. What about the scenario of the plane flying to Pakistan or another country?

I would be very interested to read a discussion on the subject with you and your other readers. This story is better than fiction.

Regards,

Randy Lea

I have little to contribute to the discussion.  I would be astonished if the Company doesn’t know more than it is saying, and protecting sources is important.  I really don’t want to say much else on that subject.  Perhaps someone will have more?  I cannot believe that anyone would think that Pakistan could keep that big a secret: a lot of people would have to know. Iran seems more probable to me.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

View 815 Friday, March 14, 2014

I have this news from my daughter:

Water From Oil: Can We Help Restore Iraq’s Marshes?

Dear Friends, Family, Acquaintances, and Contacts,

I’ve launched a new project to help restore ecosystem services in Iraq. I am writing to ask your help in getting the word out.

For the next 30 days, my university will provide a 100% match for any contribution to our startup. Even better news is that we really only need a couple of airline tickets to get off the ground. We have pledges for land donation, ground expenses, and a great science team.

You can learn all about the project here: https://experiment.com/cmarsh

I’d of course be delighted if you’d consider small contributions (all pocket change welcome), but even more importantly, please forward this along to anyone that you think might have interest: Iraq veterans, wetland and marsh lovers; fans of croudfunding; supporters of entrepreneurship.

We are already half way to our minimum goal; a little boost from you may well put us over the top.

Thanks very much in advance!

Jenny (Pournelle)

Dr. Jennifer Pournelle’s theory is that these marshes, then in what is now under water in the Persian Gulf (see Diving Into Noah’s Flood) are the cradle of Civilization, the origin of all the Mesopotamian civilizations. I am no expert on the matter, but it makes sense to me: why build irrigation systems in the desert unless you are familiar with living in areas where water is useful and can be manipulated. In any event the problems in the marshes began when the US invaded Iraq to restore Kuwait to the Kuwait Royals who spent the war in London Casinos until US troops could hand their throne back to them. When that was accomplished the US pretty well abandoned the people who had revolted against Saddam Hussein, and he retaliated; in the case of the marshes, he dealt them death, destruction, and bulldozers to drain these four thousand year old villages. You can see more of that in the National Geographic Diving Into Noah’s Flood. You’ll also see Jenny.

Was the Iraq War worth it? Veterans with ties to Wisconsin units weigh in

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/was-the-iraq-war-worth-it-veterans-with-ties-to-wisconsin-units-weigh-in-b99212594z1-249213641.html

Don’t know him.

WAS it worth it? Yes.

HAS it been worth it? No.

Did you read the comments on the article? Lot of invective there. But let me explain my answers. Under international law, the US was justified in attacking Iraq. And, there was the great opportunity to introduce democratic (note I didn’t say democracy) methods in a Middle Eastern Arab/Muslim country. Not to mention the physical ‘central position’ of a US presence in the Middle East to influence Persia, Syria, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi, et. al. The WAR was brilliantly conducted and won quickly. The aftermath was a shambles. While the Iraqis I met ran the spectrum, most were initially wary of the US, but extremely thankful ridding them of Saddam. AND, they expressed hope and anticipation for democracy. We (the US leaders and government) blew that opportunity by being stupid and arrogant in a culture we didn’t want to understand or cooperate with, much less HELP them build a legacy for themselves. As a result, insurgency blossomed (which is what cost Col Smith his Marines) which caused more damage to the Iraqi people than to the US military ever did. Regardless, we still had a good chance to provide the Iraqis success after the surge – then we go and blow that by withdrawing. Should we have remained in Iraq – even one Rgt sized base of operations, we would have told the Iraqis and the world we cared and wanted them to succeed without interference from other Middle Eastern influences. Iraqis were/are proud of their country and heritage in the region – that could have been built upon with US encouragement. In effect, we abandoned them… again.

We could have had a success Iraq with democratic tendencies (worth it), but created too many mistakes and abandoned them (not worth it).

s/f

Couv

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

We have left the Iraqi Kurds better off than when we went in. We encouraged revolts in the marshlands but did not support them until the invasion after 9/11.

There is a lot of news, much of it contradictory, about the Malaysian 777 headed for Peking. It is now highly probable that the airplane continued flying for several hours after it ceased to be tracked by any ground station, which means it could be nearly anywhere – China, Pakistan, even Iran, or in the other direction, in Australia.  If it has crashed in any of those counties one would think this would be known by now. If it has landed, a lot of people must know that. No one has reported eight event.  It’s an interesting puzzlement but that is all it can be without reliable information.

Stark, Raving Mad

One proposal for US retaliation to punish Russia for its Ukraine actions is to send more US fighters into Poland. One proposal, fortunately rejected at least for now, was to send in unclear weapons for the US fighters based there. One hopes that this was never taken seriously by anyone in command of those weapons. Younger readers will not recall, but when Khrushchev proposed much the same thing – nuclear weapons into Cuba – the result was that I was out in my back yard in Seattle filling bags with dirt to line the fallout shelter in the basement of my house in the Green Lake district. I cannot think that Putin would find the prospect of US nukes just across his border than Kennedy did when the Russians were sending them to Cuba.

Secretary Kerry continues to bluster about what Russia can and cannot do, as if that were up to us. That is not diplomacy as I understand it. Loud public threats are seldom effective between great powers, and are often not very useful when delivered from a great power to a client state. No one seems to see any similarity between Crimea and Texas.

There is slight but real hearing returned to my left ear.  Next week I will have the COSTCO technicians reprogram my hearing aids to see if we can take advantage of any of that.  The left one will have to be much louder than the right.  Meanwhile I am recovering from the steroids, and I ought to be back in action next week. My thanks for your patience.

2330: The news is full of “breaking news” about the possible path of the 777: west across Malaysia, a wiggle, then northwest.  After that it was still flying but there is no evidence as to where.

It could have reached Iran if flown carefully, and landed somewhere near the coast. It could have reached airfields in Burma or India, and of course it might have flown to China. The Navy is apparently searching large sea areas.

I can add only one thing: the aircraft exceeded 42,000 feet in altitude at one point.  If it reached that altitude and the cabin pressure was compromised, everyone aboard in that cabin is dead. If the control cabin was separately pressurized someone in there would survive, of course, but above 42,000 feet (and in practice above about 38,000 feet) pure oxygen flowing freely would not be enough to sustain life for any length of time. If the control cabin is pressurized but the passenger cabin was not, then everyone back there would be dead.  No one would answer cell phones.  So far as I know there is no evidence that the cabin pressure was compromised.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

View 815 Tuesday, March 11, 2014

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

What we have now is all we will ever have.

Conservationist motto

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. Period.

Barrack Obama, famously.

I have spent the day at Kaiser, and I am exhausted, but all is reasonably well. I have had my last shot in the eardrum, and now we wait weeks to determine if it all did me any good. Meanwhile I will go out to COSTCO and get my hearing aids reprogrammed to see if that helps. I was hoping to do that today, but after the ear appointment I had an eye exam, and by the time that was over I’d had enough.

New glasses coming in a week or so. Cataracts getting worse, and that’s the next thing I need to think about. At some point I’ll have to have them done. Like most people my age, I learned that cataract operations generally leave you worse off than you were when you started. That is no longer true, as witness Larry Niven and his wife and others I know and trust, but it’s still terrifying. I’ll leave that undone for a while.

I mentioned this in mail last night. Of the people previously without health insurance who now have that under the ACA, a large percentage – 30% is reported – are felons going into state prisons who are now, under ACA, eligible for Medicaid. As of not I have yet to hear from anyone who voted for ACA who knew that provision was in the Bill, so there is no one defending: it’s like a act of God or a hurricane, except that I don’t see how it got into the law without someone putting it there. Perhaps someone will step up and proudly claim credit, but so far no one has.

Collected web sites worth your attention: a mixed bag.

http://www.thenation.com/article/178140/feminisms-toxic-twitter-wars

http://www.geekwire.com/2014/heres-real-bill-gates-windows-installation-debacle/

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/19/troop-left-to-fend-for-themselves-after-army-was-w/

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/20/a-self-licking-ice-cream-cone/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/10485281/Baby-forcibly-removed-by-caesarean-and-taken-into-care.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/15/health/the-selling-of-attention-deficit-disorder.html?_r=5&

It’s dinner time. I have stories about the corruption of scientific publications. If you cannot trust the data you cannot falsify anything.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.