November 2011 – Page 2 – Chaos Manor

Stringing up Gibson; tales of the American Nomenklatura

By Jerry Pournelle | Nov 25, 2011 - 11:56 am | Updated: November 25, 2011 - 3:10 pm | View

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View 702 Friday, November 25, 2011

I will be all day Saturday at LOSCON, and I am trying to catch up on stuff today.

Today’s Wall Street Journal has “Stringing up Gibson” by Kimberly Strossel (link) which details just what happens when you put the Nomenklatura in charge by giving them regulatory laws or expanding regulatory power. The 2008 expansion of the century old Lacey Act was intended to produce this result although I expect many of those who voted for it did not know that.

On a sweltering day in August, federal agents raided the Tennessee factories of the storied Gibson Guitar Corp. The suggestion was that Gibson had violated the Lacey Act—a federal law designed to protect wildlife—by importing certain India ebony. The company has vehemently denied that suggestion and has yet to be charged. It is instead living in a state of harassed legal limbo.

Which, let’s be clear, is exactly what its persecutors had planned all along. The untold story of Gibson is this: It was set up.

Most of the press coverage has implied that the company is the unfortunate victim of a well-meaning, if complicated, law. Stories note, in passing, that the Lacey Act was "expanded" in 2008, and that this has had "unintended consequences." Given Washington’s reputation for ill-considered bills, this might make sense.

Only not in this case. The story here is about how a toxic alliance of ideological activists and trade protectionists deliberately set about creating a vague law, one designed to make an example out of companies (like Gibson) and thus chill imports—even legal ones.

When you hand your affairs over to the Nomenklatura you can expect these results. (Nomenklatura or New Class. They ruled the USSR and its provinces. We have created them in America and we are rapidly handing more power to them.)

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free. Why do we always act as if we have forgotten that?

Adam Smith told us that whenever two capitalists get together, their conversation turns to scheming on how they can get the government to restrict entry into their business, and thus reduce competition. The usual method is to introduce regulations that make it impossible to start a competitive business on a shoe string. Over time those schemes create a Nomenklatura that governs all, and makes lobbying more important than productivity or ingenuity.

The biggest result of the legal harassments of Microsoft was to convert the Microsoft District of Columbia office from a sales organization to a lobby. More lobbyists mean more revenue for the Nomenklatura, more parties for the staff, more campaign donations for the Members of Congress and the Senators. Even “good” lobbyists (i.e. ones advocating policies we approve of) raise the cost of doing business. This results in more regulation, which results in higher to prohibitive startup costs in any industry which can get the attention of the Nomenklatura (and you can always get that attention if your lobby budget is large enough), which results in reduced competitiveness, more pay for “compliance officers” who produce nothing, higher costs for the affected trade, and higher costs for the consumer. Eventually that drives jobs overseas, so the lobbyists then turn to restricting imports.

One of the simplest ways to end the Depression we are entering is to abolish many of the Federal regulatory agencies and give those powers to the states. Of course we won’t do anything like that. The lobbyists won’t let us.

Salve, Sclave.

I posted this Thursday. This is a repeat:

I will give you one fact to ponder over the weekend.

Some Teachers Unions have pointed out that the average grade and high school performances in Wisconsin, which has teachers unions, are higher than the corresponding averages in Texas, which is a right to work state. This is true. The average student performance in Wisconsin is higher than the average student performance in Texas.

It is also true that the average black student performance in Texas is higher than black student performance in Wisconsin. The average Hispanic student performance in Texas is higher than the average Hispanic student performance in Wisconsin. The average white (non-Latino) student performance in Texas is higher than the average white (non-Latino) student performance in Wisconsin. The three classes are collectively exhaustive.

These facts are true, and they are not contradictory although they may appear to be. We’ll talk more about this next week, but if you are moved to comment I’m listening.

Looking for a Christmas present for a Kindergarten or First grader? Teach them to read. Get Mrs. Pournelle’s reading program. Seventy half hour lessons and you won’t have to worry about the competence of the school system. http://www.readingtlc.com/

Thanksgiving

By Jerry Pournelle | Nov 24, 2011 - 2:42 pm | Updated: November 24, 2011 - 2:49 pm | View

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View 702 Thursday, November 24, 2011

THANKSGIVING DAY

Count your blessings. We still have many of them.

1030: Alex and Dana will be here shortly, with Rocko. I don’t suppose dogs actually anticipate future events, but they always enjoy playing together once Sable establishes her rules, which are that some toys are hers and not to be taken by visitors, but others can be regarded as community property. The categories change from time to time by some kind of logic that may date back to the wolves. Sable insists on being treated as a higher ranking wolf than any other dog in the house and that can lead to scrapping. I am sure this is of more interest to me than to you.

Have a great Thanksgiving.

I will give you one fact to ponder over the weekend.

These facts are true, and they are not contradictory although they may appear to be. We’ll talk more about this next week, but if you are moved to comment I’m listening.

14:20 Alex and Dana actually came over as I was in the middle of writing that last paragraph. I had intended to post it this morning.

Since then we have set up the Thanksgiving dinner and the turkey is now roasting in the over; we have cleaned up the preparation clutter; we have had lunch; and all of us except Roberta who wasn’t feeling quite up to it have had a two mile walk. The dogs have been well behaved on the walk, but for some reason Sable decided that the pool is her drinking bowl and resented Rocko taking a drink. Her objections were verbal (I suppose a better word is vocal; Sable tries to talk and actually knows a few words, but I could hardly call it speech). I have finished the paragraph above describing the seeming paradox that Texas leads Wisconsin in average student performance in a set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, but Wisconsin leads Texas in over-all average student performance.

I remind you that I was serious in soliciting stories of what a Paladin could do to make things right. I warn you that I may use your incidents in upcoming stories.

Have a happy Thanksgiving.

Immigration, power efficiency, dehydration, and other matters

By Jerry Pournelle | Nov 24, 2011 - 1:02 am | Updated: November 24, 2011 - 1:02 am | Mail

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Mail 701 Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Gingrich on Immigration

Newt’s local commission immigration amnesty proposal is fairly daft. The problem is that some jurisdictions will grant amnesty to practically everyone (hello, Berkeley) and there’s no real practical way to keep immigrants from moving to friendlier jurisdictions, nor is there any practical way to keep them there once they’re amnestied.

Adam Greenwood

Which is to say that the United States is no longer capable of self-government? Perhaps so, or perhaps commissions consisting of retired police and military officers? I confess I don’t know. I see your point, but how did we avoid such matters with Selective Service? Surely there were Selective Service boards more willing to give deferments, and there were no laws against moving to those neighborhoods. But things were different in many ways then.

I would note that some restrictions can easily be placed on what we can, for lack of a better term, call Green Card Boards or GCB. Any felony conviction would require the decision be made at a far higher level than the local board. Residency of fewer than ten years would simply remove that applicant from the local board’s jurisdiction. And so forth.

The purpose here is to prevent needless litigation and prevent absurdities. It is still the case that you will find few Javerts in these United States, who would expel a 25 year resident never accused much less convicted of any crime, and who was thoroughly integrated into the community and the nation. Since it will cost thousands of dollars per illegal to track them down and expel them (even if there are not large legal fees as well), surely there is some answer other than to set computerized hounds loose whose job is to expel anyone not here legally. I am not sure what that is, nor do I think Mr. Gingrich has been given any gift of enlightenment. Yet it remains a real question: once you secure the borders, what comes next? We can eliminate the obvious, those accused of crimes – don’t bother to prosecute them, send them to the border, as was done, for example, some 25 years ago when some burglars tried to break into our neighbors house and were caught in the act. They were conducted to the border: cheaper all around. Of course with porous borders that may not be much of a solution, but once the borders are under better control it’s a great deal cheaper to the state, the county, and the city. Or so I thought at the time.

Newt has the habit of speculating in public about matters like this. It’s not optimum politics and were I his political advisor I would certainly advise him not to bring such matters up in public debates; yes, they need discussion and thought, but think them through among friends before going public with them. But then that’s the advice Newt would give to any candidate.

With matters of such federal importance it may be necessary to place restrictions on the principle of subsidiarity, but I am convinced that transparency and subsidiarity – in other words self government at local level whenever possible – is the best way to preserve freedom. I will agree that we have tended toward creating a professional political class that is rapidly becoming a Nomenklatura, an American New Class, that rules without much limitation.

Immigration Problem ~

Hi Jerry,

The debate I seem to hear most often is an argument about two extreme alternatives for the approximately 11 million illegal immigrants we already have. The arguments swing from "amnesty" to force marches to the border. Both extremes have consequences that I don’t think the general population would tolerate. Amnesty will just increase the amount of immigrants trying to get in on the window of opportunity. Forced deportation will generate too many heart wrenching stories of those affected (i.e. kids) that had no input into the decisions made by their parents. These stories would make any deportation program a short-term effort in terms of popular support and we’d find ourselves not being able to finish the job begun or even make significant progress.

I think a "Pay-to-Stay" system would be as good a compromise as we could get in our current political environment. Those discovered to be illegal through district commissions such as Newt started to suggest could pay an annual fine to help support their stay here until they get "legalized" through the normal process. This way, the immigration institutions could focus their resources (i.e. personnel and jail space) on deporting those who we really need to go such as criminals or those who continue their ways and try to avoid these fines. (Note: I also like the idea of using the IRS to go after people violating our laws instead of trying to squeeze more money out of citizens). There is no reason to insist that the "maximum penalty" of deportation must always be applied. As well, it would minimize the heart-wrenching stories that undermine enforcement efforts over time.

A guest worker program could also be considered for agricultural workers to fill in gaps for those who ordinarily would not earn enough to cover such fines. As an incentive, acquiring a useful degree or military service could exempt them from such fines to encourage useful contributions to the country.

All this would not preclude securing our borders as a separate step. I think for the most part that would get substantial bi-partisan support as a standalone effort rather than as part of a "comprehensive" reform.

V/R

Nathan Stiltner

Clearly the goal ought to be deportation of all those who are here for entitlements and have no interest in paying their share. Often it’s cheaper to deport someone than to convict them of minor crimes. That saves both the costs of crime and punishment, and quite often considerable amounts in entitlements.

Another goal ought to be the retention of those who actually add value to the society, and aren’t just consumers of taxes.

One can’t really apply those goals to citizens, but it seems reasonable to be selective regarding those who are not citizens.

Regarding military service, I think we can all have general agreement that, say, twenty years service with an honorable discharge is more than enough to qualify one for citizenship along with a pension. We can debate how many fewer years are needed to ‘earn’ citizenship, but surely we can all agree on that much? (Or of course there is the question of honorable discharge due to service related disabilities. Alas, that opens the shell shock can of worms, and no, I don’t want to get into that debate just now.)

England sinks another notch lower

SUBJ: You can’t make this stuff up

"You can’t buy that lime… it could be classed as a weapon: Shock for

chef shopping at Asda"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2063954/Asda-tell-chef-You-buy-lime–classed-weapon.html

I wonder if there will ever again be an England.

Cordially,

John

As you say, you can’t make this stuff up. Or can you? What do they do about vinegar? And I presume that no one has his own swimming pool? The more I think on this the more I suspect a store scanner programmer with a wicked sense of humor.

dehydration & rehydration

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Regarding dehydration, could the doctors have been using the word in a technical sense with a different meaning from the general one? A personal experience from about 15 years ago to make this point.

About that long ago I went with my late father to attend a family function in Bombay. There he got a bad attack of indigestion (change of tolerated bacteria probably) and later actually collapsed in public.

A cousin who is a doctor was there and diagnosed his condition as acute dehydration and treated him with an oral rehydration regime.

I remember him saying that acute dehydration results in the body losing salts and sugar as well as water and drinking water after an serious attack of ‘lose motion’ sometimes just made the liquid/salts balance worse.

A packet of "over the shelf" rehydration powder was procured and mixed with the water my father was given. He was back to normal in a few hours.

Yours

Ramesh Nayar

PS The powder was a mixture of salts and glucose with lime extract to mask the taste in a sealed foil cover. It tasted awful.

I thought of this after I posted the note in View, and of course it’s true: I can even see why forbidding the claim that water prevents dehydration might make a certain amount of sense if one is trying to avoid lawsuits. You can’t assume common sense.

It is certainly the case that drinking too much water can flush the system of electrolytes. Every hikemaster must be taught this, as must directors of campuses in remote places: I know, because having been both, I have had to be aware of it. Hikers who drink too much water can collapse. It’s not likely, but it can happen, and it is important to replace electrolytes when one sweats profusely.

It’s even worse if one has a disorder that causes diarrhea. Montezuma’s Revenge as an example: it can be fatal if one does not drink enough liquids. The problem is that if you give only water, eventually the lack of electrolytes will cause the victim to pass out. At that point it becomes very dangerous because how to you rehydrate? The usual solution is Gatorade, or some other drink that contains electrolytes. Even soda pop is preferable to just plain water in those cases.

So perhaps this is what the commission meant? Dehydration literally means lack of water, but in fact lack of electrolytes is what becomes the great danger, and both water and electrolytes must be replaced as they are lost to sweating or diarrhea.

Pepper Spray and Tactics

Jerry:

I agree that the command officer at UC Davis should be ordered to take a class in strategy and tactics. Even if he had one, or dozens, during his training. I suspect any training he had is obsolete if it’s more than a couple of years old. In particular, police need to take the Internet into account at all times. Assume anything they do is being recorded for later posting on You-Tube.

In Fandom, we have a saying along the lines of, "never put anything in a fanzine you don’t want on the front page of the newspaper." In business, it’s morphed into "never put anything in an e-mail you don’t want read aloud in court." Now it’s "never do anything you don’t want going viral on the Internet."

Tactics must take into account not only how to handle the sort of hostile situations police have dealt with since ever, but how to handle the fact that whatever they do is subject to being reduced to a thirty-second clip, carefully stripped of all context by someone who doesn’t like them.

If it means police officers wearing those webcams that look like Bluetooth earpieces, well, they’re $150 according to Popular Science.

………….Karl

It has certainly proven to be the wrong decision on many levels.

Fluoride shuttle increases storage capacity: Researchers develop new concept for rechargeable batteries

Jerry,

Interesting article on a new battery technology.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111021125521.htm

I think this new battery technology just might give electric vehicles comparable range to gasoline cars. The energy density still is not comparable to gasoline, but when the total system mass including fuel/battery, engine, transmission, drivelines and axels is considered, the electric car might become competitive.

Jim Crawford

Indeed interesting. One the biggest problems with intermittent energy sources like wind and ground based solar is the immense cost and inefficiency of power storage. The electric car starts with the disadvantage that the generation system is inefficient, then the transmission system, then the storage; whereas the internal combustion engine has only the original power conversion inefficiency. If electric power is cheap enough – say in places with lots of hydro-electric power, or nuclear (whose costs are more related to safety systems than to the actual power generation costs) – electric cars compete nicely. Regenerative braking can convert a reasonable fraction of kinetic energy back into stored power; storage efficiencies become very important in that cycle.

Saving the planet

Hello Jerry,

Apparently, when you are a government astronomer involved in the

crucial work of ‘saving the planet’, you are excused from all the

little nit-picky bureaucratic hassles, such as reporting outside

income and such, that lesser govvies have to endure. Or be

terminated and/or jailed.

For example: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/18/dr-james-hansens- growing-financial-scandal-now-over-a-million-dollars-of-outside-income/

Bob Ludwick

But if your mission is saving the planet, surely you ought not be hobbled with regulatory impediments…

Jefferson and the pendulum as unit of measure

By a strange coincidence I had just been reading Jefferson’s letter to Dr. Robert Patterson this morning regarding this subject, and the basic measure that Jefferson suggested was a half-period of 1 second, which is 0.994 m (which he described as longer than our yard and less than the ell). A pendulum with a period of 1 second would be slightly less than 10 inches in length (L = (T/(2 * pi)) ** 2 * g).

Lon McWrightman

This will have to do for tonight. I continue to get more interesting mail than I can publish and comment.

Technology, Immigration, and are we a serious nation? And send me examples of what a paladin could do.

By Jerry Pournelle | Nov 23, 2011 - 12:01 pm | Updated: November 24, 2011 - 2:39 pm | View

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There are two important topics to be covered, both generated by Newt Gingrich’s remarks at last night’s Republican candidates debate.

• A Strategy of Technology

• A Strategy of Immigration Control

Can water prevent dehydration?

I will not be able to get to either of them in detail today, but I will have essays on both; indeed, it is pretty clear that there is a real need for a revised version of The Strategy of Technology, by Stefan T. Possony, Jerry Pournelle, and Francis X. Kane. Dr. Possony was a former Intelligence Officer for Austria under Schuschnigg, for France after the anschluss, and then for the United States during World War II. When I met him he was a Senior Fellow for the Hoover Institution. Jerry Pournelle is me. Francis X. Kane is a retired Air Force Colonel, Ph.D. , and Director of Plans for General Schriever. When we wrote the book he was still a serving officer so his name does not appear on the published edition. The book was used as a text in all three US service academies and at two of the service War Colleges, and is said to have been influential in cold war planning policy. Mr. Gingrich has read it and has discussed it with me more than once. It is very much oriented to the Cold War threat, and most of the examples are from that era. The principles remain true and applicable, but both the original edition and the revisions were intended to be applicable to the Cold War. It needs a new edition applicable to the present era. I am reminded of this because in the Republican Candidate debate Mr. Gingrich, asked about defense policy and budget cuts, made it clear that his policy would be a strategy of technology to make the military more cost/effective.

For a fuller disquisition on The Strategy of Technology, see my essay with that title. When I was part of the team that advised Newt from 1981 until he left the office of Speaker I knew him to be a hands-on Congressman (like Bob Walker who was one of Newt’s team) who understood the matters he was dealing with. I met Newt originally when he telephoned me (having got my phone number form my publisher) to discuss A Step Farther Out . He had just been elected to the 6th District of Georgia and he wanted to discuss the book. We became friends, and I found he was quite serious about technology and space development. Clearly he still is.

If I were to wait until I could do a full revision of Strategy of Technology we might be a very long time; so next week I will try to do a brief essay on the application of a strategy of technology to our current strategic situation, and what might be some of the outcomes of that. Actually that is pretty well what the new book Niven and I are doing is all about, so it is not a shift of mental gears, and in the process of explaining it I will probably be able to generate scenes for the book, thus growing two crops on one field. A good use of my time.

The Immigration Issue

The second essay I need to write is a rational inquiry into immigration policy. One of Newt’s problems is that he assumes his listeners have thought about problems and have seen the obvious. That is why he often says things that seem inexplicable to new analysts who do not think through problems nor even attempt to.

In the Republican debates Newt said something obvious without doing much preparation for the announcement, and without making clear the prior conditions. To Newt it is obvious that one controls the borders; if you don’t you are not a sovereign nation. He also knows that we will have some kind of “guest worker” program whether it is legal or not: the nation has changed since the days of Ozzie and Harriet and Father Knows Best, and whereas for a hundred years women’s liberation meant that women were free to stay home and not have to work outside the home, that all changed starting with World War II, and liberation came to mean equality very much including women working outside the home and having careers in academia and business. The result is a need for nannies and housekeepers. There is a need for agricultural workers, particularly seasonal. These two factors alone constitute a magnet for migrant workers. Closing the borders with barbed wire, electrified fences, drones, armored cars, watchtowers, troops with orders to shoot to kill – remember the Mexican goat herding boy shot by a Marine team at the border, and the flap THAT caused> — and other such measures is possible, but it is expensive, particularly so long as those and other magnets are in place.

But presume that all that works. The borders are controlled, probably by a combination of security measures using all appropriate technologies (sometimes the most appropriate technology is quite low tech, sometimes it is high tech, most often it’s a combination of both, perhaps combined with firepower). Once you have the borders secured what do you do with the 11 million illegal immigrants already here?

Now for gangsters of any age the answer is simple: get them out of here. They’re illegal, deport them. If their country of origin will not take them, bribe some foreign country to give them a visa. Get them out of here. Then there is a great number of more ambiguous cases. And on the other end of the spectrum comes Newt’s sudden speculation (he’s prone to examining the limits, something that all systems analysts are taught to do routinely). Take the case of a hard working family that has been here 25 years, never in trouble with the law, parents of citizens, grandparents of citizens: in the real world no one in their right mind want to deport Grandpa and Grandma whether they be from Latin America or Eastern Europe or West Africa. We aren’t going to do it, and it’s madness to assume we will. Since we are not going to deport them, what do we do? Well that implies that we think of some means to make them legal residents but not give them citizenship. And in the real world that’s about all we can do, and we all know it.

But most illegal immigrants are neither gangsters nor Grandpa Lorca. How do we decide who goes and who stays, once we have the borders secure and a reasonable guest worker program?

What everyone seems to have missed is that Newt speculated that perhaps we need thousands of local commissions, very like the Selective Service Commissions we formed back in the days of conscription. Greetings, a commission of your friends and neighbors has selected you — etc. He didn’t get very far with that speculation, but it preceded his remarks about what to do with Granma Lorca. It’s clear he was speculating and hadn’t thought this through very far, but since then I’ve given it some thought, and it’s a good starting place. We really do have to deal with the problem. There will be illegal immigrants who are neither gangsters nor pillars of the community. More on this another time.

But no one up on that stage would put Granma Lorca in handcuffs and shove her across the border into Tia Juana, and everyone knows that.

Incidentally, one of Newt’s observations is obvious: any immigrant graduate in any of the hard sciences should automatically be offered permanent residency. As Governor Perry put it, there ought to be a visa stapled to the degree certificate. I can’t think anyone would object to that. If we are going to implement a strategy of technology to get ourselves out of this mess – and we could do that – we will need smart people to implement that strategy. It is madness to send an MIT computer science graduate go back home to a foreign competitor if there is any chance of getting that graduate to stay and work here. Same goes for medical and most health care graduates.

One other obvious observation: if this were a serious country, we would not be wondering about Iranian and Iraqi oil. We would rely on our own resources and in a year we could have supplies and refineries. The difficulties in doing that are not technological. We can do it.

During World War II we built a liberty ship a day. Advanced fighter aircraft went from design board to operations in combat in under 150 days.(For those who doubt it, look up the history of the P-51.) During the Depression we built Hoover Dam in about five years. We built the Empire State Building in not much more than a year. We supplied oil for England as well as America and carried it through submarine infested waters to get it there. We organized D-Day, the most complex operation in the history of the world, and carried it off despite facing Rommel and his beach defenses. Have we so degenerated that we can no longer do those things?

Energy and freedom could make this country great again. But we have to treat those matters seriously.

This week remains frantic. Roberta has a cold, and I have been advised to stay off my knee for a few days (twisted a ligament somehow) which means that neither of us have been getting out for a walk, which means that Sable has decided that she has been remiss in doing her job which is to be sure these humans she lives with get out for their exercise and also do the daily hunting for the pack, so she has decided to remind us, at fairly frequent intervals.

Meanwhile they are coming to remove the whacking big desiccation machine from my bathroom, and they’ll be back next week to put in new floor covering. It’s Chaotic at Chaos Manor.

You can view Strategy of Technology on line free, but if you want a pdf copy it is available. I also send a copy to new Platinum and Patron subscribers to this web site, so if you were thinking of becoming a patron of this site, that may be relevant information.

For a copy of Strategy of Technology in pdf format, go to http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2011/Q2/mail669.html and scroll down to the end, where you will find a button. I have tried to transfer this but I don’t know how, and I haven’t time to learn it. I am presuming that the old web site buttons still work. If not I’ll find another way, but the simplest way is to become a Patron subscriber. That works because I do it myself. And now I have work.

Strategy of Technology – Buy PDF version

Strategy of Technology in pdf format:

Can Water Prevent Dehydration?

Not according to the European Union and its panel of 21 scientists. Of course there is some controversy.

Of course this is one more development of the rule of the Nomenklatura in Europe and the United States. It’s not enough for the regulators simply to take the money and do their jobs keeping the system running. The modern bureaucrat is educated, a college graduate (who has probably learned little of any use, but it’s the credential that counts) and feels compelled to contribute something. What better way than to be certain that his – or her – benighted subjects benefit from the wisdom of the Nomenklatura? Hence bunny inspectors, water doesn’t dehydrate, the streets fill with pothole – there’s nothing creative about filling a pothole, let’s look for something to do that reflects our superiority – and civilization spirals down in a morass of permits and regulations.

Query: if you were a paladin given the Low and Middle Justice and sent out to make the world better, what might you do? I can use some incidents of bureaucratic madness that could be corrected by someone with power and common sense. Send me your examples. And now I really do have to work, but first I have some errands.