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Mail 494 November 26 - December 2, 2007

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Monday November 26, 2007

Harry Erwin's Letter from England (and China)

I spent almost a week in China at a neurodynamics conference, and there were good and bad aspects. On the good side, I met a lot of people, learned about the most recent results, identified some grant funding opportunities, and came away with a couple of papers to write.

On the bad side, my own research wasn't quite ready for prime time--so I had to do an interim report--and I learned first hand about the problems of modern China.

The Communist Party is riding the tiger. There's a lot of overhead (or underfoot) here. They use a parallel bureaucracy to the state bureaucracy to stay in control, and there are various police and military forces visible everywhere. It's currently a light touch, but they retain the capacity to clamp down suddenly. China is in the middle of explosive capitalist development. The pent-up demand of the last fifty years is being expressed in an unbelievable economic boom.

They're building up, and I suspect half the new construction will be unliveable in thirty years. As long as everyone continues to get rich, the system may remain dynamically stable, but one stumble, and the train crash will be incredible--"Heads-up!" for everyone else on the planet.

Jerry, you wouldn't do well here--the pollution level is sky-high.

They're bringing a new coal-fired power plant on line every week.

Shanghai is the only modern city I've ever visited where the tap water in a luxury hotel has to be boiled before you can drink it. The first day I was there, it was acid rain, and the other five days, it was various varieties of heavy smog--I was very ill by the time I left.

The hotel is non-smoking, but they use kerosene to clean the floors.

The UK Government managed to expose the banking details of half the population. The National Audit Office requested some information from the child benefit database that the tax office holds. These are actually maintained by a private company, so it was cheaper to send a copy of the entire database (including addresses and bank account

details) than to pay for a simple SQL select. The database was burnt to a couple of CDs and sent by mail, which proceeded to lose it. The BBC called the university on Wednesday asking to interview me on this, but luckily I was still in China. Ross Anderson (a well-known security expert at Cambridge) was incandescent.

The Government is setting up an enormous monolithic database with complete records for everyone in the UK, but this shows why that is a bad idea. The reason I had to come up with a security architecture for the Treasury Department's communications system was that federal law enforcement agencies had found that information held by a local police department was generally available for $1000 (illegally), and the price for FBI-held data was about $10,000. The drug barons were using their deep pockets to take advantage of this, tracking secret anti- drug operations and identifying undercover agents. If you want to protect sensitive data, you have to compartmentalise it and enforce need-to-know and least-privilege. Obviously this has not been done in the UK, and now everyone knows why the current approach is stupid.

I received signals that the US intelligence community is very unhappy about the Plame outing. Apparently there are moves afoot to impeach Chaney. Speaking of US politicians, you have no idea how naive the current crop is on international issues. Strange to say, Obama looks like the best of the lot.

Recommended book: Streater, R. F. (2007), Lost Causes in and beyond Physics, Springer. On research questions you do _not_ want to give your PhD students.

News in England:

Followups on the data loss story. The first link is a useful

commentary--

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=
/opinion/2007/11/24/do2401.xml

> <http://tinyurl.com/2x83ox>

<http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=1845362007>

<http://news.zdnet.co.uk/security/0,1000000189,39291039,00.htm?r=1>
 <
http://tinyurl.com/22n8oa
>

<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601102&sid=aAtMxrPfowaA&refer=uk

> <http://tinyurl.com/248apk>

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/11/22/ncustoms622.xml

> <http://tinyurl.com/2h2dhz>

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7110547.stm>

<http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2216363,00.html>
 <
http://tinyurl.com/ywxwpb
>

<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2933796.ece>
 <
http://tinyurl.com/2yf7mm
>

<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/janice_turner/article2933431.ece

> <http://tinyurl.com/2738yg>

Using the internet to crack passwords--

<http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/technology/2007/11/23/
forgotten_your_password_google_can_find_it_for_you_unfortunately.html

> <http://tinyurl.com/22jf3s>

Miscellaneous stories--

<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/
columnists/guest_contributors/article2933464.ece

> <http://tinyurl.com/2a6c43>

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;j?xml=/opinion/2007/11/24/do2402.xml

> <http://tinyurl.com/25r9tt>

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7107798.stm>

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7107265.stm>

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7102180.stm>

<http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/11/23/tor_abuse/>

<http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/11/british_nuclear.html>

<http://tinyurl.com/3779ml>

<http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/11/hacking_a_soda.html>
 <
http://tinyurl.com/2cgttd
>

<http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2007/11/hard_drives_sol.html>

<http://tinyurl.com/2ydahq>

--

Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland.

<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw>

Weblog at: <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>

Thanks for the report. Riding the tiger: Chinese bureaucracies have done that for thousands of years. So long as they have the Mandate of Heaven -- meaning that the river floods are under control, there's not famine in more than a few provinces (simple faming is easy: take all the food out of one province and put it in another; the recipient is grateful and the donor is dead) and things are looking up, the bureaucracy and dynasty prevail.

I think of the current China as a new dynasty, having got rid of Crazy Mao.

On the Plame matter, see below.

==============

Subject: Crazy Days

Dr. Pournelle,

I recently became aware of your site, so I’m not up on all of the e-mail strings or anything. But have you noticed how much today seems like the Crazy Days mentioned in the Heinlein Future Earth series? Incompetent politicians (more so than usual), divided politics and electorate, wars for resources, wars of religion, repeating history, loss of personal freedom in the name of public good, etc. It sometimes seems as if we are on the edge of collapse. I do like your analogy to the Roman Empire, as we could do much worse than the Roman example. The Romans went through some hard times before they became an empire, as we are. I’m not sure that the American public is comfortable with empire building, and I don’t think that the Russians or the Chinese will sit idly by and let us be the ‘cop on the beat’ without some dissent. After all, they want to be empires, too. We’ll probably fall into the role instead of seeking it out. As usual, we’ll muddle through.

I’ve enjoyed many of your books through the years, and look forward to reading many more. I also enjoyed several of the articles on survival. As a token of my appreciation, I will be subscribing to the web-site later this week, as soon as I find the check book.

Thanks,

Keith E. Owens.

Well, it's a good day for it.

43 BC - The Second Triumvirate alliance of Gaius Julius Caesar Octavianus ("Octavian", later "Caesar Augustus"), Marcus Aemilius Lepidus, and Mark Antony is formed.

===========

Subject: I think I've heard you say this....

Jerry,

Sort of a "duh" article, don't you think?

I certainly see the neglect of gifted programs in my own school district, and what a non-surprise. There are serious consequences in the NCLB act; every single child must get over that low bar....or else. There are NO consequences of neglecting the bright students. Well, of course, there are very serious consequences for the US as a whole 20 years from now, but no consequences the superintendent or the school board.

The trouble with setting up feedback loops to regulate policy decisions is that you have to be damn sure that the feedback loop optimizes the right thing. NCLB doesn't, and that's what is wrong with the law.

Chuck

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2007/11/24/AR2007112401420.html?
hpid=moreheadlines

========

Subject: True, the MFA is no guarantee of writing success

Dear Jerry:

You do have a point about not needing any kind of degree to be a good writer. Very true. In fact I worry that the Iowa Workshop experience, of which there are now over a hundred dopplegangers, has become too much of an academic exercise. There are now Ph.D. degrees in Creative Writing, mostly in the U.K. A knowledge of literary and cultural theory is a sine qua non for acquiring one of these, but otherwise it's pretty much the same as an M.F.A. course. The problem, as I see it, that none of that theory will make you a better writer. The only thing that does that is writing and testing what you have written in the marketplace of ideas. The real problem these days is publishing, which is why many fiction writers are now rolling their own, rather than have the agents and the publisher's marketing departments dictate what they will write. In fairness, I must note that none of the people I really learned from themselves had an MFA. However, the Workshop experience can be a very nurturing environment under the proper instructor. The peer review process is very valuable because no one lets you get sloppy about the easy stuff and they try to show what is and isn't working with your early drafts. As I said, the degree is secondary. The real bonus is being able to study and think about writing full time.

Not everyone who gets a MFA becomes a writer. One of my classmates was Glenn Schaeffer, who became a top executive in the casino industry and put his creativity into places like the Mandalay. He has given several million dollars to the Iowa Writer's Workshop (Their library is named after him). He also founded a literary institute in New Zealand and done other good works. This is what comes of listening to all that well meaning advice to get "a real job". You stop writing.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

What I said was that I didn't know many professional writers who had got much out of creative writing programs. By that I mean, got much that made them better writers; clearly a good liberal arts program that insists you do a good bit of writing can be a valuable education.

I continue to insist, though, that writing techniques can be learned anywhere and are most developed by practice unless you were fortunate enough to have good formal education in English in grammar school (we did; diagramming sentences, looking at sentence structure, drills in learning formal rules) -- unless you were fortunate enough to have good formal eduation in English techniques you will have to learn them. I don't think you need an MFA to do that.

My editor Bob Gleason has an MFA. He earned the money to pay for his education by puddling steel in Gary, Indiana mills. I have nothing against an MFA, I just don't think one has to have one. It's more important to have something to write about, and that means a general education.

I don't regret my Literature and Thought program at the University of Iowa. Far from it. But I wasn't in it to learn how to write.

==========

Subject: The end of the world as we know it 

Jerry,

The end of the world as we know it:

A reminder that Professor Krauss of the "we're speeding up the end of the universe" paper, is the author of The Physics of Star Trek.

For what it's worth, of course. :)

Jim

Which wasn't all that bad a book if you just read it for fun. Thanks, I had forgotten that.

=========

NASA satellite; Lon live 

Dr Pournelle

Jason asked if the 'cheap' satellite NASA is marketing is a step in the right direction.

No, it is not.

NASA should not be selling cheap satellites. NASA is an agency of the federal government. NASA should be engaged in testing prototypes and proving concepts to make it possible for Rockwell, Lockheed-Martin, and General Dynamics (are they still around?) to sell cheap satellites.

Respectfully h lynn keith

=========

Muslim Pussy

If you were expecting, perhaps, something salacious .... sorry to disappoint you!

Bill

=========

Subject: Sarcos' Exoskeleton Brings us closer to Starship Troopers 

Sarcos has developed a military exoskeleton that looks like a precursor to what Heinlein imagined in 'Starship Troopers'. The video doesn't show the wearer juggling eggs, but he can dance (at least as well as me, which is faint praise) and play catch. Future versions with armored coverings are planned.

http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=1319 

Tim Boettcher

==============d

 

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Tuesday,  November 27, 2007

Subject: The Plame outing 

Dr. Pournelle,

I greatly enjoy Harry Erwin's weekly contributions. One section in the most recent installment puzzled me greatly:

> ...the US intelligence community is very unhappy about the Plame outing. Apparently there are moves afoot to impeach Chaney.

I followed this case rather closely, and I shall try to summarize what I know:

In November of 2003, veteran journalist Robert Novak mentioned that Valerie Plame was a CIA operative in one of his columns. At the time, Plame was working a desk job in the Washington area.

Novak would not publicly reveal his source, but rumors were rampant that this was a political payback by the Bush administration. There was enough outrage over this that Patrick Fitzgerald was appointed as special prosecutor. The Left was dreaming of a Watergate redux.

They were badly disappointed. Finally, in August of 2006, former deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage admitted he was Novak's source. The Left was distraught. There would be no Watergate sequel here, because the state department in general and Armitage in particular were no friends of the White House. Suddenly, the legal issue of "outing" Plame seemed less important.

The serious legal issues (was Plame a "covert" agent when Novak wrote his column?) would probably have simply evaporated except that Patrick Fitzgerald was still the special prosecutor, and he needed to convict SOMEONE after several years of investigation. He learned early in his investigation that Armitage was Novak's source, and (for whatever reason) he didn't want to prosecute Armitage. Fitzgerald eventually managed to convict Scooter Libby in March of 2007 for making untrue statements while being questioned during the investigation. Libby was not convicted for outing Plame, or even being part of a conspiracy to out Plame (although Fitzgerald very skillfully managed to imply that at trial). In fact, Fitzgerald very carefully avoided accusing Libby of that, so the presiding judge could never rule on whether revealing that Plame worked for the CIA was a crime (since judges cannot rule on hypothetical charges). In the end, Libby was convicted of making untrue statements in the investigation of what may not have been a crime committed by someone he had no connection with.

Can someone explain how Cheney fits into this, other than being Libby's boss?

Steve Chu

I have said about all I can about the Plame affair. She wasn't a covert agent, and the genuine coverts I know resent the holy hell out of her and her grandstanding. Libby probably misrecalled events, which is easy enough to do. I don't remember everything I have told people, even when I put it up here: I've more than once repeated letters, as an example. Special Prosecutor was a stupid idea, the Republicans have a death wish that this was in aid of, and I don't have any idea why Cheney is supposed to be involved.

The weird part is that if you read Wilson's report, it actually strengthens the notion that Saddam was trying to get WMD, and it was so taken at the Agency by analysts who had hoped it would show something else.

Valerie Plame drove in a convertible through the front gates the Bureau of Public Roads Research, oops, CIA HQ at Langley, every damned day. She must have been photographed by every intelligence service (or their stringers) in the whole blinking world. I can name you some free lance people who took her photo daily and sell their crop to anyone who wants to buy. It's not a particularly lucrative industry.

I am more than weary of the whole silly affair. A proper Empire would take better care of its minions.

==========

Subject: Madness? 

Jerry

Madness

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/11/25/nbook125.xml 

The scare over global warming, and our politicians' response to it, is becoming ever more bizarre. On the one hand we have the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coming up with yet another of its notoriously politicized reports, hyping up the scare by claiming that world surface temperatures have been higher in 11 of the past 12 years (1995-2006) than ever previously recorded.

This carefully ignores the latest US satellite figures showing temperatures having fallen since 1998, declining in 2007 to a 1983 level - not to mention the newly revised figures for US surface temperatures showing that the 1930s had four of the 10 warmest years of the past century, with the hottest year of all being not 1998, as was previously claimed, but 1934.<snip>

This year will be remembered for two things.

First, it was the year when the scientific data showed that the cosmic scare over global warming may well turn out to be just that - yet another vastly inflated scare.

Second, it was the year when the hysteria generated by all the bogus science behind this scare finally drove those who rule over us, including Gordon "Plastic Bags" Brown, wholly out of their wits.

==========

More on the MFA

Dear Jerry:

I agree completely that no degree is needed to become a writer. I also note that it seems to be a rare and unpredictable ability. Most people think it is easy, simply because they've been trained to think of work as something involving unpleasant effort, usually physical in nature and fail to understand that true success is finding something you love to do and getting paid for it. Some people will write dozens of books and others, like Harper Lee, write one and are so successful that they never venture another one. I think that writing is more a compulsion than an occupation. I realized yesterday that the administrative bog, the travel and some health problems have kept me out of the game for about the last year. I'm not blocked; anything but. I just can't find the time and mental space to commit to one of the various projects before me. I feel the itch and will bloody well make the time.

You mentioned that it helps to have something to write about, and in this context, the "Day Jobs" help a lot because they expose you to situations and characters you probably would not meet otherwise. Sometimes the lack of knowledge at a very deep level hinders the realization of a complete narrative. The rule is "write about what you know", right? I can think of a novel about the real estate business that was done by a best-selling author and which, by her own account, was hard to finish. Research will take you only so far. I read it and my own opinion is that she failed to understand why people go into that business, which at its higher levels can be very creative and satisfying. There is also the thrill of finally, finally closing the sale and making a large chunk of money. She missed that too. That lack of knowledge made her characters sad and joyless. It's hard to write people you don't like. Think about it; even villains have their attractive qualities or they wouldn't be so scary. Pure evil is predictable and boring.

I believe in "Kaisan". This is a Japanese term from Management Science meaning "Continuous Improvement". The current version of "The Shenandoah Spy" is getting really good reviews, but there will be some minor changes for the new print version, perhaps no more than 5,000 words, which will make in even better for the reader. I've never stopped reading and researching the background on this. Going once more to the source material can give you a better physical description of a minor character and inspire dialog that adds clarity to the theory of the novel. Since I started in Drama, I always ask that actor's question. "What's my motivation?" or "Why would (he, she, it) do that?" Even incredible situations have to have their own internal logic or they fail to engage the reader. Cognitive dissonance sets in; that nagging feeling that something is just a little off. The late Johnny Carson said "If you buy the premise, you buy the bit". Ursula K. LeGuin added that your P.S.G. (Pseudo-scientific Garbage) must always be in order. She was writing about science fiction, but the principle applies generally

That said, what is the role of MFA programs in developing world class writers? Why bother?

Well, as previously said, you already have to write very well just to get into one of these programs. That does not mean a mastery of the mechanical aspects, despite what your high school English teacher told you. I couldn't diagram a sentence to save my life. I employ my own editor. No, it means that you know how to tell a story. How to create interesting situations and characters and deploy language that will engage the reader. You don't go to one of these program to learn how to write, but to learn how to write better.

I've been at this for 42 years now and think I'm finally getting the hang of it. One of the real advantages is that you never have to "retire". You can just quit, the way Harper Lee did. But she's the exception. Last summer after WesterCon, Leigh and I went up to Marin County to see some people. One of them was Vance Bourjaily, my mentor at the Iowa Writer's Workshop, who is now 84 and no longer teaching. As we walked into his house we could hear a typewriter going full blast. He's working on a new novel.

I don't think that writing fiction or drama can really be taught. It can only be learned. There all sorts of venues for doing that and all sorts of theories about how to do it. There is a story about the famous author who was approached by a society matron at a party.

"Sir," she asked, "How many words are there in the modern American novel"

"I don' t know. I've never thought of it in those terms. I suppose eighty or a hundred thousand."

"Oh thank God! I'm done!"

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

I first heard that story told by Bennet Cerf: in those days a novel was about 60,000 words. I suspect it was in Joe Miller's Joke Book.

I still say that one can learn how to write fiction, but no one can teach it to you.

 

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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Ethanol Craze Cools As Doubts Multiply

Long, thoughtful article on Ethanol

Ethanol Craze Cools As Doubts Multiply

Little over a year ago, ethanol was winning the hearts and wallets of both Main Street and Wall Street, with promises of greater U.S. energy independence, fewer greenhouse gases and help for the farm economy. Today, the corn-based biofuel is under siege.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119621238761706021.html 

Bill Shields

I read this at breakfast, and intended to write today's View on the subject. Thanks.

=========

Remember Niven's "Cloak of Anarchy" where the King's Free Park was patrolled by floating copseyes that contained a camera and a stunner? Well, a "Taser Representative" in France is planning to build a "mini-flying saucer like drone which could also fire Taser stun rounds on criminal suspects or rioting crowds". They expect to have a working version next year.

Sounds just like a copseye to me. Seems like at least some of Niven's stuff is coming to pass. Can you get him to give us a warning just before the Kzin attack?

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/11/french-reveal-p.html 

Tim Boettcher

 

 

 

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Thursday, November 29, 2007

Subject: a great presentation by Dr. Barnett

Jerry,

This is worth your time.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/33 

You'll find a lot of your ideas in it as well.

Phil

It is probably time for me to grind out my HIGH TECH WARS books. In my copious free time.

He makes the same points I have been making for some time: armies break things and kill people. Nation building needs another kind of force entirely. He says "Leviathan Force" and "Everything else"; I've used the terms Legions and Auxiliaries, but we pretty well mean the same things. 

Barnett believes you can build this and not become an empire. I fear I know better. What he describes is competent empire. He has forgotten, or perhaps never learned, Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy. Having said all that, yes, it is very much worth the time of just about anyone who reads this site.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Friday, November 30, 2007

Subj: Does Thomas P.M. Barnett advocate empire?

He doesn't think so. He's using a definition of "empire" different from Dr. Pournelle's:

>>Some people put these two things together and they call it Empire -- which I think is a boneheaded concept. Empire is about the enforcement of not just minimal rulesets -- what you *cannot* do -- but maximal rulesets -- what you *must* do. Not our system of governance, *never* how we've sought to interact with the outside world. I prefer that phrase, System Administration: we enforce the minimal rulesets, for maintaining connectivity to the world economy. Certain *bad* things you *cannot* do.<< -- time index 13:20 of the video

I believe Dr. Pournelle's definition of "empire" is -- and this is my paraphrase, not a quote -- "any system that imposes any ruleset on its subjects that they do not freely accept, by overwhelming consensus". It's not a matter of the maximality or minimality of the ruleset in question, it's a matter of compulsion.

Alas, I'm afraid this difference over definitions would make it hard for Drs. Pournelle and Barnett to reach what Herman Kahn used to call "second-order agreement" -- that is, agreement about *what the disagreement is about*.

Having now viewed this video of Dr. Barnett's Feb 2005 Brief, viewed a couple of other performances of the Brief, and read his first book (_The Pentagon's New Map_), but not his second (_Blueprint for Action_), and followed his blog occasionally, I see not reason to amend what I said three years ago:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail335.html#Friday 

That's fairly close to my view of Empire rather than Republic. A Republic minds its own business. We may impose some policies on others when our interest is overwhelmingly affected -- but given our history, that hasn't always been a great idea. The Monroe Doctrine was a compromise with Empire and ended with our occupation of the customs houses of the Dominican Republic and the Marines running some banana republics. The Marines and Navy were our "everything else" in Barnett's analysis; when we sent the Army anywhere we meant real business.

Republics mind their own business. Empires mind everyone else's and sometimes their own.

==

Subject: The pentagons new map - long version

Jerry,

The 2 hour 43 minute version is here:
 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=
4689061169761152025&q
=the+pentagons+new+map&total=35&start
=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0 

This is the long version as briefed to the government.

In his introduction, Dr. Barnett tells that he briefs up to the SecDef's staff and his 3 star boss briefs everyone above that. It occurs to me that you brief the rest of us. Your stories and this website serve the important purpose of setting the general mindset in the educated population at large. Not flashy, but damned important.

Phil

I try. Thanks to you subscribers I can manage. Sometimes.

==

Barnett: doing it the hard way with Iran

Jerry,

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2007/
oct/28/doing-it-the-hard-way-with-iran/ 

Have you seen anything like this? Could it even remotely be true. Are they that stupid? Ah crap, I used to work for NASA, of course they are....

Phil

===========

Book Marketing...

Here is an interesting approach to book marketing -- a YouTube video, an opportunity to download an eBook copy for $2.50, a ten page teaser on site, and a link to the Amazon listing which sells a paperback copy for $20.50.

The book? "Bill Clinton My Life a Meoldrama" by Harry Disco.

http://www.harrydisco.com/  is the site with the above marketing attack. The ten page teaser does that well.

Charles Brumbelow

========

Subject: The Wheels Coming Off the UK Government

Telegraph comment:
<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml
=/opinion/2007/11/30/do3001.xml >  <http://tinyurl.com/yqrzrz

The Tories are finally back to where they were when Margeret Thatcher was most popular: <http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKL3070929220071130 >  <http://tinyurl.com/2y9p4c

-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland. <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at: <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>

I hope there will always be an England, but I doubt it. I don't think all the immigrants can become either English or British.

=========

Subject: The Fermi Paradox

Dr. Pournelle,

Some interesting figures re: the classic question, "Where is everybody?"

"...To demonstrate the degrading effect of distance on an everyday omnidirectional signal, one might imagine a spacecraft equipped with an Arecibo-style radio receiver directed towards the Earth. If this hypothetical spacecraft were to set out for the interstellar medium, its massive 305-meter wide dish would lose its tenuous grip on AM radio before reaching Mars. Somewhere en route to Jupiter, the UHF television receivers would spew nothing but static. Before passing Saturn, the last of the FM radio stations would fade away, leaving all of Earth's electromagnetic chatter behind well before leaving our own solar system. If a range-finding radar beam from Earth happened to intersect the ship's path, it would be observable from a much greater distance; though its short duration and smooth, Gaussian meaninglessness would make it an inconclusive detection– much like the Wow! signal and Radio Source SHGb02+14a..."

http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=219 

Don -- Donald W. McArthur "It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood." - Karl Popper http://donmcarthur.com

==========

The Barnett TED link was very good. I disagree with you on the Iron Law but only to the extent that bureaucracies can be forced into retirement. My experience with FEMA was limited to Hurricane Iniki in Kauai 15 years ago. As I was in charge of emergency power generators, getting and deploying and all that stuff, I was finished in three weeks and it was on autopilot from there on. Of course that action was completed in a few months and that bureaucracy, or sub-group ceased to exist. I was not working for FEMA but was seconded to them for that action. My normal job with DOE was also a transient thing and I was more than willing to leave it when there was no longer a reason for committees to exist. My positions were absorbed by another person and probably are extinct. So it is possible to extinguish bureaucratic entities as long as it is understood that the personnel occupying those positions want a job. Way back in engineering, when we were designing industrial projects, done on paper or velum, the rule was that a drawing would take X number of hours except the last one which would take as long as it took for the designer/engineer to find another project to work on. Then it would be completed immediately. What agencies lack is the understanding of personnel matters, as everyone wants to think that what they are presently doing is important and needs to be done. Find them another position and they will usually move to another job without too much trouble. That excludes unions, where no logic applies.

We used to joke that in the construction industry, there was a cadre of people who would be working on a particular project, no matter who got the contract. If Bechtel got the contract or Kellogg, Brown and Root, or someone else, many of the same people would end up working on the project. That was the reality of business. That none of the competing companies had all the personnel they would need to complete the contract. They knew that the would be able to hire the personnel they needed when they got the contract. It has always been true and that was the difference between private industry and bureaucracies. The fixed entities never had to slim down when they didn't get a contract, and the personnel didn't get used to moving because their company lost the contract. So they get feeling rooted in their job and the management doesn't understand what it is like to efficiently manage an operation. It is not impossible to violate the Iron Law, but it is very difficult unless elected officials understand the process of running an operation efficiently.

CBS

==========

GEO-NEOCONS ?

With geoengineering being floated as an alternative to conscripting the world into the Party Of Carbon Taxation, how apposite of George Will to note :

"It is a pity that TR built the Panama Canal. If he had not, "national greatness" and "heroic" conservatives could invest their overflowing energies and vaulting ambitions into building it, and other conservatives -- call them mere realists -- could continue seeking limited government, grounded in cognizance of government's limited competences.

http://adamant.typepad.com/seitz/2007/11/geoneocons.html 

-- Russell Seitz

 

 

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Sunday,  December 2, 2007     

Subject: Book Marketing...

Book Marketing...

Here is an interesting approach to book marketing -- a YouTube video, an opportunity to download an eBook copy for $2.50, a ten page teaser on site, and a link to the Amazon listing which sells a paperback copy for $20.50.

The book? "Bill Clinton My Life a Meoldrama" by Harry Disco.

http://www.harrydisco.com/  is the site with the above marketing attack. The ten page teaser does that well.

Charles Brumbelow

==========

Dear Jerry,

You've probably received multiple copies of the poem "A Soldier's Christmas" by now. It's being virally-forwarded from an email purportedly sent by LCDR Jeff Giles, SC, USN, Al Taqqadum, Iraq---but without attribution. Tracking it down, I found a site that you might find of interest; "International War Veterans' Poetry Archives" - http://iwvpa.net/marksm/index.php.  "A SOLDIER'S CHRISTMAS" can be found there (along with more of his works) written by Michael Marks. - http://iwvpa.net/marksm/a_soldie.php 

Greg Hemsath

==========

The Secret to Raising Smart Kids

See <http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?
id=the-secret-to-raising-smart-kids&print=true>


  <http://tinyurl.com/2l7me3>

We also know expertise is almost entirely a result of effortful practice, with raw talent petering out rather rapidly.

-- "If they do that with marks and grades, should they be trusted with experimental data?" Harry Erwin, PhD

==

Subject: Scientific American: Don't tell your children they are smart 

Jerry,

The Scientific American has an article called "The Secret of Raising Smart Kids". The study summarized in the article validates a lot of what you've posted here about the American education system. The study makes it very clear that it is better to teach your children to work/study hard than to tell them how smart & talented they are.

"In particular, attributing poor performance to a lack of ability depresses motivation more than does the belief that lack of effort is to blame. In 1972, when I taught a group of elementary and middle school children who displayed helpless behavior in school that a lack of effort (rather than lack of ability) led to their mistakes on math problems, the kids learned to keep trying when the problems got tough. They also solved many of the problems even in the face of difficulty. Another group of helpless children who were simply rewarded for their success on easy problems did not improve their ability to solve hard math problems. These experiments were an early indication that a focus on effort can help resolve helplessness and engender success."

"Subsequent studies revealed that the most persistent students do not ruminate about their own failure much at all but instead think of mistakes as problems to be solved. At the University of Illinois in the 1970s I, along with my then graduate student Carol Diener, asked 60 fifth graders to think out loud while they solved very difficult pattern-recognition problems. Some students reacted defensively to mistakes, denigrating their skills with comments such as “I never did have a good rememory,” and their problem-solving strategies deteriorated."

"Others, meanwhile, focused on fixing errors and honing their skills. One advised himself: “I should slow down and try to figure this out.” Two schoolchildren were particularly inspiring. One, in the wake of difficulty, pulled up his chair, rubbed his hands together, smacked his lips and said, “I love a challenge!” The other, also confronting the hard problems, looked up at the experimenter and approvingly declared, “I was hoping this would be informative!” Predictably, the students with this attitude outperformed their cohorts in these studies."

Of course this doesn't address the problem of a sub-culture that believes intelligence is to be avoided.

The article is online at:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=
the-secret-to-raising-smart-kids&print=true 

Tim Boettcher

==========

reading your mail

"...Seems like at least some of Niven's stuff is coming to pass. Can you get him to give us a warning just before the Kzin attack?"

Um.

You mean before civilization is hit with a sneak attack by an enemy which doesn't regard anyone else as people, has no concept of negotiation in good faith, and cannot imagine an end to war other than the conquest and enslavement of all opposition?

You're a little late.

Matthew Joseph Harrington

PS - Of course, Moslems don't eat prisoners. I guess that's something.

=========

Overweight? Standing May Be Solution, 

Jerry

A new way to lose weight - stand up:

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=3922069 

"When we sit, the researchers found, the enzymes that are responsible for burning fat just shut down."

I think I'm going to get a chest-high desk and talk to patients standing up. Maybe I'll get trim again.

Ed

=================w

 

 

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