| Wednesday,
April 16, 2008 The hubris of the political
class
Jerry:
An interesting note on the hubris of the political
class:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/
20080414/sc_afp/
euunfarmpovertyenergypoliticsbiofuel_080414143918
EU defends biofuel goals amid food crises
BRUSSELS (AFP) - The EU Commission on Monday rejected
claims that producing biofuels is a "crime against humanity" that threatens
food supplies, and vowed to stick to its goals as part of a climate change
package. <snip>
"There is no question for now of suspending the target
fixed for biofuels," said Barbara Helfferich, spokeswoman for EU Environment
Commissioner Stavros Dimas.
"You can't change a political objective without
risking a debate on all the other objectives," which could see the EU
landmark climate change and energy package disintegrate, an EU official
said.<snip - emphasis added>
In other words, the EU regulatory framework is so
fragile that they can't undo one violently opposed bad decision without the
whole thing unraveling.
J
You are surprised? You are seeing a picture of the
future. Education in these United State is pretty well in this fix now. And
the State moves to end home schools so that it is not clear to everyone how
bad the schools are.
Government employees have a right to their pay, and
to automatic raises. They have a right to extract money wherever it can be
found -- in your bank accounts and retirement funds extracted by inflating
the currency; in your income from whatever source derived; anywhere there is
money, they have a right to it. This is the first a great commandment...
==========
Colonel Couvillon on Iraq
iraqs-moment-of-truth-in-baghdad-and-basra
Friends,
It's been quite a while since I've sent a broadcast of
pertinent information about Iraq or the Middle East. After a couple of
computer crashes, job changes (civilian and USMC) and a myriad of other
things, it hasn't been that I've been uninterested - just mis-directed.
Still, I've tried to keep up and many people still ask for my opinion on
these issues, particularly in this election year. So, there is this reason
to again communicate with you. The link below is to an article that gives
first hand insight over events in the last 10 days in Iraq and paints the
best picture I've heard in quite a while about progress on the political
situation in Iraq. I encourage you to read it.
s/f Couv
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/
iraqs-moment-of-truth-in-baghdad-and-basra/
==========
Subject: surgery and brain function impairment
Dear Jerry
Re Dr McDougal's comments about brain function
impairment as a consequence of heart surgery, it is indeed a well known
fact, I can't vouch as to how much research has gone into it, but my father
was a cardiologist and I grew up surrounded by doctors of all kinds and even
35 years ago there wasn't much of an argument that general anesthesia has a
negative effect on you, if I recall correctly there is a correlation between
how deep it is and how long the patient is kept under, for older patients
the effect may take up to a year to ease off. The consequences of the use of
a heart/lung machine are also fairly well known and in fact clotting is an
associated risk in the use of such a device.
Having said all of that there are times when you
really don't have much of a choice and have to perform the procedure.
personally I like engineering better, you can have more certainty about the
results. My father's favorite phrase (after 40 years of medical practice)
was "in medicine there are no absolute certainties" that from a guy who was
considered an ace in diagnostics and clinical evaluation....
Keep well
Ariel
=========
Cognitive ability tests are the best way
for medical schools to select their entrants, rather than interviews and
psychological tests, says an editorial in this week's BMJ.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/
2008-04/bmj-cta040908.php
==========
From another conference. I post this without
comment
http://globalpolitician.com/24460-iq-race
IQ Differences: Do they exist and can we
admit it?
Guy White - 4/9/2008
Last year the Fire Department of New York
was sued by the federal government because of the racial gaps between
races. No reasons were given to prove that there was any bias, just the
fact that blacks did not score as well as whites. The FDNY test was not
the only test to show a gap. So did the SAT, GRE, GMAT, MCAT, LSAT, bar
exam, police exams, IQ test - every test of aptitude. All of them are
supposed to be racist.
The Consistency of the gap on aptitude
tests
But here's the interesting thing. All of
them show about the same gap - what psychometrists call one standard
deviation. And all of them show that Asians are about a third of a
standard deviation above whites.
Consider how difficult it must be to
maintain this gap year in and year out if it were not real, but the
result of a conspiracy.
Every year, the test makers must work to
make that the gap remains the same - and not just one one test, but for
everyone from children taking the SAT and AP exams to doctors taking
medical boards.
Many of the aptitude tests are developed in
other countries, including Africans who need a way to filter students
into their universities and government jobs.
And many of the American tests aren't
uniform nationally. Bar exams given to lawyers and lieutenant exams
given to cops are different in every state. Not only are the laws
different, but the types of questions given by states are often
radically different (multiple choice, short essays, long essays,
questions based on knowledge, questions based on logic without any need
for memorization).
All those hundreds of tests must be worked
out to produce exactly the same bias, ever in and year out. The "White
Racist Conspiracy" must never falter. It cannot produce a white
advantage too big or too small because it would undermine itself and
expose the bias in all the other tests.
Why them?
At the same time, East Asians must score
better than whites - again, always by the same margin. The White Racist
Conspiracy allows Asians to score higher because… why is it again? If
the tests are developed by whites, why are whites failing to score
higher than East Asians?
But that's not it. The White Racist
Conspiracy must also make sure that within the races, there must be the
same scores for different ethnic groups, and keep it up for all the
different tests in all the years.
The Japanese must score higher than native
Hawaiians. The Jews must score higher than the Germans (IQ tests were
made illegal in Nazi Germany for this reason). The tests must be made so
that Ashkenazi Jews score higher than Sephardic Jews; Hong Kong Chinese
score higher than Taiwan Chinese; English immigrants from London score
higher than English immigrants from northern England. On every test, in
every state, every year.
But why? If this is a racist conspiracy,
why would white supremacists care who scores higher, those from Hong
Kong or those from Taiwan? Why would white supremacists want to make the
Japanese score higher than whites, but Hawaiians lower? And why would
the undercover Klansmen preparing these tests allow the Jews to outscore
everyone? And why would Americans hate Australian Aborigines so much
that they would make them score lowest on aptitude tests? Why would
Americans hate the Aborigines? What would it prove to give them such low
scores?
And why would the white male conspiracy
want black women to outscore black men? Aren't they supposed to be
sexist, as well as racist? Isn't that the reason given to explain why
white men outscore white women by about 3-5 point on IQ tests? So why
would the sexist test makers allow black women to outscore black men?
Where are the whistle-blowers?
To make sure that hundreds, maybe
thousands, of different tests conform perfectly to each other in terms
of racial/ethnic/gender averages, and achieve those unfair differences
through racist cheating for dozens of years, we would expect that there
would be a conspiracy of hundreds of thousands of people over the
generations since these tests were implemented.
This raises a question: why didn't someone
blow the whistle? Many people complain that the tests are racist just
because they show differences in average scores for different racial and
ethnic groups. But who has actually been able to point out the
conspiracy where questions were asked with the specific purpose of
discriminating? Nobody. Why not? Why is it never even alleged, as can be
seen from the above court complaint against the New York Fire
Department. Only the so-called "disparate impact" is used to indict the
test makers.
Why don't blacks create "fair" tests?
More importantly, why didn't blacks come up
with a test that's fair? There are many major cities - Washington, New
Orleans, Detroit, Camden, Oakland - that have been run by exclusively or
almost exclusively by blacks. These cities develop their own tests for
police, firemen, and other government employees. Why are their tests
also show the same exact "bias"? Are we supposed to believe that New
Orleans Mayor Ray "This is a Chocolate City" Nagin is part of the racist
conspiracy to disadvantage blacks when they are try to get a job or a
promotion?
Why don't black countries develop an IQ
test that would be fair? Why can't even a black racist dictator like
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe do it? Is he also part of the white supremacist
conspiracy?
There is a reason why Ray Nagin and Robert
Mugabe can't come up with a test like that. Maybe it's impossible to
create a biased test and keep the results consistent across the board
over many years? Maybe it's because a test that does not show a gap is
the one that would be biased? Maybe the gap actually exists?
Would admitting this gap be racist and
upsetting to blacks?
Would it be racist to suggest that East
Asians have higher IQ scores than whites? Would it racist to say that
Asians are better educated than whites? Would it be racist to say that
Asians have significantly lower crime rates than whites? That they save
more and waste less of their income than whites?
So why then is it racist to say all those
things about whites as compared to blacks, if all the tests and
statistics show that these statements are true?
White people don't break out in tears when
they hear that they have lower IQ than Asians, on average of course.
They do not feel that now they can't go to school or that society is
against them. They do not get low self-esteem issues.
So why should blacks be upset that their
average scores are lower?
Our society didn't break down when we found
out that East Asians are on average more intelligent than whites, so why
would it break down if we admitted that whites are on average more
intelligent than blacks?
Just because we know that Asians are on an
average smarter than whites, we do not say that every Asian person is
smarter than every white person. Why can't we admit that whites have a
higher average IQ than blacks, while at the same time recognizing that
many blacks are more intelligent than many whites?
We can recognize that the fact that the
Asian average is somewhat higher, does not mean that every Asian person
is smarter. But we also recognize that the higher average IQ among
Asians will result in a higher average income and education.
Why can't the same be true in the
black-white dynamic: we can treat every person as an individual based on
his own ability, independent of the average score for his race. At the
same time we can recognize that there will be an average group
difference in income and education that is the result of the average IQ
score for the group, not discrimination by evil whites. Recognizing that
would mean that affirmative action is an unfair advantage for those
individuals who lucky enough to be born into a race with a lower average
IQ score.
Why should a black person with an IQ of 100
go to a university that is off-limits to a white person with the same
100 IQ just because the average black person has a lower score than the
average white person? Shouldn't the two people with the same IQ be
treated the same way?
What good would it be to admit IQ
differences?
This story appeared in the news yesterday:
Officials overseeing the Advanced Placement
program have announced that they intend to drop AP classes and exams in
four subject areas, in a pullback expected to affect about 12,500
students and 2,500 teachers worldwide.
Following the end of the 2008-09 academic
year, there will be no AP courses or exams in Italian, Latin literature,
French literature, and computer science AB, said officials at the
College Board, the New York City-based nonprofit organization that owns
the AP brand.
...
Mr. Packer said the decision was made
principally because of demographic considerations.
Only a tiny fraction of the members of
underrepresented minority groups who take AP exams take the tests in one
of those four affected subject areas, he said. (SOURCE)
This is what happens when we refuse to
recognize aptitude differences. Admitting that fewer blacks than whites
or Asians have a high IQ isn't just a philosophical matter. Courses are
cut, tests are butchered, corporations are sued and careers are
destroyed because tests show different results for different racial and
ethnic groups.
If we admitted that fewer blacks have a
high IQ, these AP courses would still be there and the FDNY would not
have gotten sued for discrimination (unless real discrimination could be
proven). When we pretend that evolution doesn't produce differences in
human populations, we begin harass the company that makes those courses
until that company eliminates programs that are desperately needed for
the nation's progress.
Is our nation and the the rest of the world
better off without our brightest kids getting the stimulation they need
to become great inventors, doctors, professors, engineers and
businessmen?
Most importantly, is our nation better off
hunting for witches in its own institutions and spending trillions of
dollars to work towards the impossible goal of equality of outcome,
especially if it means discouraging blacks (of all IQ levels, including
the very bright) from trying for the fear of racism while simultaneously
inciting them to hate "whitey"? Is our nation really better off this
way?
Oh and one last thing...
After writing this article, several people
emailed to ask why is it that if Asians have a higher IQ, they win so
few Nobel Prizes and invented few of the world's great modern inventions
like computers, cars and airplanes?
The answer is that whites have a wider
range than Asians, according to all the tests. Asians (and women of any
race) very rarely have a low IQ, but also do not have a genius IQ as
much as white men.
Compare these two groups (name and IQ
score):
Mike-70, Rob-80, Jon-90, Bob-95, Joe-100,
Ken-120, Dan-145.
Ho-90, Ma-95, Chi-100, Lee-105, Ting-110,
Lau-115, Wong-120.
The average IQ of the 7 white people is
100. The average IQ of the 7 Asians is 105. All the Asians are capable
of graduating from high school (minimum IQ of 80 is needed) and all but
one is capable of getting a college degree (requires a minimum IQ of
95).
Among whites, one person can't finish high
school at all, one is borderline and will have so much trouble
graduating that he probably will give up on it. A third doesn't have the
ability to get a college degree and the fourth is right at the edge, but
usually those people give up without getting the degree simply because
it's too hard for a person with an IQ of 95 to get a Bachelor's.
The 8 Asians are likely going to be better
educated and will make more money than the 8 whites… on average, of
course.
However, the only person classified as a
genius is a white guy who has an IQ of 145.
If someone will win the Nobel prize, it
will be that white guy. If someone will invent something great, it will
likely be that white guy. The odds of any of these 7 Asians winning the
Novel prize are slim to none - nobody with an IQ of 120 or below ever
won it.
And so we see that the Asian group will
likely have more money, but the white group is more likely to produce a
great inventor.
That's roughly how IQ scores work in real
life. While East Asians have about 3-9 points higher IQ scores
(depending on the test), the vast majority of people scoring in the
genius range are white… white men actually. The IQ range of white women
is similar to that of East Asians - they are overwhelmingly scoring in
the "normal" range, and very few are either particularly dull or
spectacularly gifted. Guy White writes on issues of race. He can be
reached at guywhiteusa@yahoo.com. Visit his blog at
http://guywhite.wordpress.com
===========
John Derbysnire has been attending a conference on
consciousness. I wish I could have gone to it.
While attending the conference I blogged it for
National Review. I've gathered the main blogs here
http://www.johnderbyshire.com/Opinions/
HumanSciences/scienceofconsciousness.html
with a follow-up this morning here
http://corner.nationalreview.com/
post/?q=MzcwYzkxZGY4Yzk4Mzc3
OWNkYTE1MDEzZDU4YmExOTc=
This will, I hope, answer previous questions,
which as I recall were along the lines "What's there to study?"
JD
==========
Lucifer's Hammer 2: German schoolboy, 13, corrects
NASA's asteroid figures to 1 in 450
"A German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, has revised
NASA's figures for the chances that the Apophis asteroid will hit earth.
Apparently if the asteroid hits a satellite in 2029, its path could be
diverted enough to cause it to collide with Earth on the next orbit, in
2036. NASA had calculated the chances as 1 in 45,000 but the 13-year-old, in
his science project, made it 1 in 450. NASA agreed."
http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html
=========
"It's inevitable."
What a sad, fearful, cowardly society we've become.
<http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/
pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080416/METRO/
556828862/1001&template=printart >
- Roland Dobbins
We ain't hit bottom yet.
==========
Conservation, the Iron Law, and the usual
corruption
“Never mind the issue of human rights and social
justice. Even from a purely conservation point of view, these moves are
suicidal.”
<http://www.guernicamag.com/features/556/post_1/>
Roland Dobbins
<snip> While the alleged purpose of the
evictions was wildlife conservation, teak and eucalyptus plantations
eventually replaced more than 40 of the evacuated hamlets. As it has in
Botswana, Kenya and elsewhere, conservation in India has become a
convenient and respectable cover for less savory motives when the very
same national government that removes native people from their land in
the name of conservation has no compunctions about giving up
ecologically sensitive areas to large-scale development projects. <snip>
Surprise, surprise.
=========
Subject: A question about one of Guy White's
assertions.
Jerry,
Mr. White's post ends with this comment:
"After writing this article, several people emailed to
ask why is it that if Asians have a higher IQ, they win so few Nobel Prizes
and invented few of the world's great modern inventions like computers, cars
and airplanes?
The answer is that whites have a wider range than
Asians, according to all the tests. Asians (and women of any race) very
rarely have a low IQ, but also do not have a genius IQ as much as white
men."
Is this a well-supported or widely-accepted
conclusion? I know the gap in mean IQ's is very well established. If there
were clear differences in the size of the standard deviation around the
mean, I suppose that would also be evident. But I couldn't find any mention
of it with a quick google search.
I did find one reference which claimed that IQ is not
really normally distributed once you get out into the right hand tail
(genius IQ results, while rare, still show up more frequently than would be
expected from a true normal distribution). That being the case, wouldn't it
take a lot of high quality cross-racial data to make a firm assertion about
differences in the distributions far out in the tail?
CP, Connecticut
Both the means and the dispersions for various
races are known, and while it is possible to quibble about some of the
numbers, his assertion is a reasonable summary of what is known. One problem
is that publishing such data is not conducive to academic advancement. We no
longer do science by the scientific method as I was taught and as Popper and
the Vienna Circle described. This is particularly true in areas like human
diversity or climate.
========
Copyrights for visual artists, and changing copyright
laws.
Harlan Ellison has been saying "Register everything,
the minute you print it off. Once it's on paper, someone who couldn't cut it
is going to try and chivvy it out of you" since before I was born. That
advice is now applicable to everyone who does visual media as well.
Harlan must be getting tired of being proven right on
this issue all the time.
http://mag.awn.com/index.php?ltype=pageone&article_no=3605
(If I put Harlan Ellison and Cory Doctorow in a
gladiatorial arena to settle copyright, I think I could fund a Moon Base
from the Pay Per View rights. Hmmm.)
Ken Burnside
==========
Subject: Users fight to save Windows XP
"Those whom God wishes to destroy, he first deprives
of their senses." Euripides
Microsoft is now officially senseless:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080414/
ap_on_hi_te/microsoft_save_xp
"Microsoft Corp.'s operating systems run most personal
computers around the globe and are a cash cow for the world's largest
software maker. But you'd never confuse a Windows user with the passionate
fans of Mac OS X or even the free Linux operating system. Unless it's
someone running Windows XP, a version Microsoft wants to retire.
Fans of the six-year-old operating system set to be
pulled off store shelves in June have papered the Internet with blog posts,
cartoons and petitions recently. They trumpet its superiority to Windows
Vista, Microsoft's latest PC operating system, whose consumer launch last
January was greeted with lukewarm reviews."
For what it's worth, I have three systems. One runs
XP, one 98 and one (swelp me!) ME. From what I have seen and read of Vista,
I would rather run a fully patched 98 than Vista (were I to have to choose).
XP I like, once I have set it up to "look" like 98. ME is even tolerable
(located upon an old and noble gaming eMachine that seemingly will only run
with the original OS as factory installed.)
Microsoft is no longer a code producing company. They
are a "code exploiting" company. Once they swallow enough outside ventures,
even that will be relegated to "We Also Walk Dogs" territory. It's time for
someone new, somewhere, to Get Rich with The Next Big Idea. Please!
Petronius
Buy Yahoo. That will fix everything.
Microsoft built a formidable marketing machine on
top of a fairly good code generating establishment. The problem is that
Microsoft like everywhere else is subject to the Iron Law. And without Bill
Gates the company doesn't really have anyone with vision watching over it
and trying to focus its efforts.
Meanwhile Gates has his wrong headed notions of
what needs to be done to education.
========
Subject: Asteroid Computations
by German HS Students
Jerry,
Nasawatch.com and spaceref.com report that this story
is at best overblown and that NASA has had no contact with the young
gentleman in question, nor have they changed their official estimate of the
impact risk for 2036.
The NASA statement is at
http://www.spaceref.com/
news/viewpr.html?pid=25232
Links courtesy Dr. Powell.
Jim
One reason I did not jump on the story when I first
heard it. It does no harm to wait for more information. This is not a
breaking news site...
From the reliable David Morrison:
Subject: NEO News (04/16/08) Latest NEO Hoax
NEO News (04/16/08) Latest NEO Hoax
Today the Internet has been propagating a story out of
Germany that a 13 year old boy has corrected NASA's estimate of the chances
of an Apophis impact in 2037 by a factor of 100 - from 1 in 45,000 to 1 in
450. According to this story, NASA agrees with this correction, generating
headlines such as "NASA upgrades Apophis threat" This is incorrect of
course. Don Yeomans wrote, "This story is absurd, a hoax or both."
Unfortunately some of the German and UK press apparently accepted the claim
that NASA agreed with the new calculation, without bothering to contact
NASA. From there, this hoax quickly spread over the Internet.
Following are one of the original news stories (which
includes a number of other false statements about Apophis), a brief NASA
denial, and a more detailed rebuttal posted on the Internet.
David Morrison
= = =
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
GERMAN SCHOOLBOY, 13, CORRECTS NASA'S
ASTEROID FIGURES
A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected
NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a
German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had
miscalculated. Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the
Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a
1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the
Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.
NASA had previously estimated the chances
at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space
Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.
The schoolboy took into consideration the
risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites
orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.
Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres
a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the
Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.
If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its
trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.
Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the
asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and
iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes,
which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean. The shockwaves from that would
create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas,
whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies
indefinitely.
The 13-year old made his discovery as part
of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project
entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Asteroid."
==
NASA STATEMENT ON STUDENT ASTEROID
CALCULATIONS
April 16, 2008 Dwayne Brown Headquarters,
Washington 202-358-1726
dwayne.c.brown@nasa.gov
RELEASE: 08-103
WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program
Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not
changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000)
of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.
Contrary to recent press reports, NASA
offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and
have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the
Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.
This student's conclusion reportedly is
based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite
during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the
asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites
in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly
remote.
Therefore, consideration of this satellite
collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability
estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.
==
APOPHIS RISK NOT INCREASED: SCIENCE FAIR
JUDGES, WORLD MEDIA SCREW UP BIG TIME
http://cosmos4u.blogspot.com/2008/04/
apophis-risk-not-increased-science-fair.html
First the story appeared on April 4 in
Germany's 'leading' tabloid ("I have calculated the end of the world ...
and NASA says, I'm right"), later in more serious papers ("Nico and the
end of the world") - and today, thanks apparently to an AFP story where
the writer hadn't found it necessary to check anything, it has taken off
around the world. Alas: it's absolute nonsense! The claim is that a
13-year old German schoolboy "discovered" -- while working on an entry
for a major German science competition - - that the 2036 impact
probability of asteroid Apophis is not 1:45,000 as the NASA calculation
says but actually 100 times higher. Because during the 2029 approach the
asteroid would hit a geostationary satellite and be deflected into a
much more dangerous orbit. The newspapers also claimed that this boy not
only was awarded several prizes for his paper but that NASA had
"conceded" that he got it right and they were wrong. We're all doomed,
right?
Well, here's what NASA's NEO guru Don
Yeomans told this blog yesterday: "We have not corresponded with this
young man and this story is absurd, a hoax or both. During its 2029
Earth close approach, Apophis will approach the Earth to about 38,900
km, well inside the geosynchronous distance at 42,240 km. However, the
asteroid will cross the equatorial belt at a distance of 51,000 km -
well outside the geosynchronous distance. Since the uncertainty on
Apophis' position during the Earth close approach is about 1500 km,
Apophis cannot approach an Earth satellite. Apophis will not cross the
moon's orbital plane at the Moon's orbital distance so it cannot
approach the moon either."
And here's how one of the German scientists
mentioned in the first story, celestial dynamics expert Frank Spahn from
Potsdam University, explained events to this blog today: "I indeed had
contact with this engaged boy - he asked me which perturbations/forces
determine Apophis' orbit and especially during the close flybys. You
know that I deal with kinetic theory & celestial mech. in the context of
planetary rings, preplanetary disks etc. I explained him the 3 and 4
body problem and gravitational interactions in general. He did not tell
me about his idea to consider a collision. This was in January or
February. The next time when I heard of him was in in the boulevard
journaillie "Bild" - together with my name.
I asked him to meet me (last Friday), he
told me about the asteroid - satellite collision thing (after I asked
him how he calculated and "corrected" the NASA result). Then I showed
him at the black board about the extremely small collision probability
(frequency) with such an object. Seeing the arising problems I attended
the set of [German TV news station] N24 and explained the leading
responsible person that I appreciate the engagement of that young
student but simultaneously I express that one has to mention the low
probability of such a collision plus expressing that this is not a
correction to NASA. The filming session went on and I had to leave for
another meeting. Then I saw yesterday that nonsense in TV -- and I am
shocked. By the way -- I haven't seen that paper and the work so far,
Nico told me that his computer disk had a virus so that only hard copies
are available which are with the referees of the contest at the moment.
So -- I do not know how he could have won the competition, obviously the
referees were no experts."
Nor were the writers for the German
newspapers or AFP -- none of which bothered to ask NASA directly or just
consult the impact risk page for Apophis. This is clearly the most used
and abused Near Earth Asteroid in many years: Still called 2004 MN4 it
briefly reached a record high impact probability for 2029 in late 2004
which quickly evaporated (as always in these cases - so far) when radar
data nailed down its orbit in early 2005. And in the following months
the remaining impact probability for 2036 also continued to dwindle, to
the present 1 in 45,000: You can follow the real science - and the
triumph of radar astrometry - on this dedicated NASA website. Which
certain Jugend Forscht judges and journalists should have consulted, too
...
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Subject: one reference which
claimed that IQ is not really normally distributed once you get out into the
right hand tail - How about a brief mention that nothing is normally
distributed in terms of the Gaussian equation which has a much weaker
central tendency an
How about a brief mention that nothing is normally
distributed in terms of the Gaussian equation which has a much weaker
central tendency and longer tails than we observe in reality. What we call a
bell curve is a bastard standardized normal curve with tails that are so
thin no instances at all are observed (granted the probability is low frex
assume aging in normally distributed then the SF concept of a few really old
people are out there - the tail keeps going forever - but on the other hand
the probability is that any of the really old will die in almost the next
instant as well so.....) are observed and way too many instances clustered
at the center.
Indeed I've known people who as a hobby-lab were
working to supplant Gaussian with something with something more like the
observed for many purposes.
Bonne Santé
Clark Myers
Clearly the ends of the Bell Curve do not follow
the mathematical forms of the central limits theorum. How can they? At an IQ
of 10 you are dead. Actually it is chopped of well above that. And the
number of people with IQ 180 and above is so small that there will never be
enough in a sample to allow developing measuring instruments of any
reliability whatever. We are safer to say 150 and above and be done with it;
there is a difference between 160 and 180, or between 180 and whatever
number Richard Feynman might have achieved -- anyone sitting at a
dinner table with the two of us and Marvin Minsky would have seen that --
but we have no instruments to discover these matters.
The facts are pretty well known: there are
differences in the means, and also in the dispersions, of measured IQ in
samples of various races, and also the sexes. Women and men have similar
means, but women's IQdispersion is smaller than men's; the very highs are
rarer as are the very lows.
IQ is a measurement, an estimate of an underlying
"g" whose existence we infer but which we cannot measure directly. We
believe our measurements have a fairly high correlation with the "real"
variable, and we even have measures of that correlation; but the map is not
the territory.
Incomplete Gamma Functions are a better model for
some real life distributions; in estimates of mean time to failure and other
reliability models the simple Gaussian curve is not as accurate for
predictions of considerable economic importance. I developed some of those
for the aerospace industry way back in the 1950's when Human Factors and
Reliability was a single Group at the Boeing Company.
I am not sure, though, that explications on the
arcana of Gaussian distributions and models is all that useful. We will
never develop really close cutoff points. The military has always assumed
that 120 and above is officer class. Anyone can observe people of IQ 140 who
should never be allowed any command authority whatever; but all that proves
is that one needs qualities other than IQ before one ought to be trusted
with troops and command authority. (And yes, I understand that NCO's have
command authority, but it's different from officers: the simple statement is
that an NCO can plead that he went by the book if things go wrong. But all
that is for another time.)
If what you are saying is that very rare cases are
very rare and there are rarely enough of them to allow reliable statistics
to be gathered, then, yes, of course. I hadn't thought anyone doubted that.
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