Russia, the US, and the future.

View 820 Thursday, April-17-14

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

clip_image002[12]

Europe

Hi Jerry,

So with yet another artificial nation about to implode due to ethnic boundaries, maybe it’s time for another Yalta conference – but this time divide up the world based on ethnic boundaries rather than geographic ones. It’d solve a bunch of problems.

Cheers,

Doug=

Why is it our job? We did that after WW I and the result wasn’t very pretty. Maybe Empire works for some places. Maybe it’s just not our business. Maybe even the Business of America is business, and getting rich

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Good point – it boils down to what are our strategic interests. Do we have any in Ukraine? South Korea? Israel? Taiwan?

I’d rather Obama just say that we don’t, than to pretend we do, and rattle an empty scabbard.

Doug

Peggy Noonan has much to say about the future of US Russian relations. Noonan: The Bear That Talks Like a Man https://www.google.com/#q=Noonan+bear+that+talks+like+a+man+wsj Her point is that we had odd relations with Russia in the time of Charles Francis Adams, in the times of John Hay and Teddy Roosevelt, and here we are again. In between was the Cold War.

But Europe has changed a lot: much of it our doing. Germany remains a great power, and the French still fear them: they want a US Army over there to sit on Fritz, as one French diplomat put to me a few years ago. Meanwhile we built a network of alliances against Russia once we were finally committed to the Cold War, then foolishly tried to extend it when the USSR collapsed. I am more and more convinced that what we should have done was get out of NATO when the USSR collapsed. HATO’s work was done; the Communist world threat was ended; and we could safely allow Europe to solve its own problems while we turned back to making money and living our quiet lives of freedom, building our City on the Hill for the world to admire, and avoid entangling alliances and interference in the territorial disputes of Europe – our historic foreign policy that served the Republic well for centuries.

Of course we didn’t always stay out of Europe’s problems. The results weren’t so successful as they might have been. But once Communism rose it wasn’t the old balance of power game anymore.

Herman Kahn once said that the most important fact of the Twentieth Century was that the United States and Great Britain spoke the same language, and that involved us in European affairs and dictated the side we would take. That proved startlingly true, beginning in 1914 and continuing to the end of the Century. Kahn also said that the most important fact of the Twenty-first Century might well prove to be that the United States and Russia were predominately White nations. That statement is often ignored now because it is not politically correct to say things like that. How dare he? But it remains true that Russia is a European nation, and the Russians are, after all, Vikings and Goths who came east and interacted with the Tatars for about a millennium; but they remained European. The first Rome was Rome. The second Rome was Constantinople. The third Rome shall be Moscow, and a fourth Rome there shall not be…

Nations have few permanent friends, but they do have permanent interests. One permanent interest of America is to maintain liberty and freedom. Russian Communism was a threat to that interest. It no longer is. Communism was a threat to Christianity. It no longer is. We do not have to look far to see threats to Christianity and Freedom in this world, but we do not see them in Russia now. We do see them in the Middle East, where the plain language of the Koran states that there can never be peace between Islam and unbelievers, only truces; and the plain duty of an Islamic leader, whether President of Muslim People’s State, or a Caliph of the Faithful, is to impose Islam everywhere. The Koran is as chiliastic as Das Kapital or the Manifesto ever were. Islam or the sword is the command of Allah. Of course for the People of the Book – Christians and Jews – there is the choice of dhimmitude: to live under Muslim rule and pay the tax for not being enlightened enough to accept Islam.

But surely no one takes that seriously now?

We thought that no one took Communism and its threat of world dominion seriously for a very long time. It took a while to take National Socialism’s brand of German Nationalism seriously with its need for Lebensraum, although there was no real attempt to keep that goal secret; and the plain language of the Koran imposing that duty on Moslem Leaders was pointed out in no uncertain terms on Suleiman the Magnificent, who took it seriously enough to besiege Vienna in 1529 – and came very close to taking that city. They tried again in 1689, and once again there was a huge battle that included the largest cavalry charge (led by the Polish heavy cavalry) in the history of the world, although historians generally believe that the Turks had fewer chances of success than had Suleiman in the previous century. Even so it was close enough.

The Middle East takes the Koran seriously. And it clearly states that there can be no peace between Muslim leaders and the west. Only truces.

Russia watches as former states of the USSR revert to full Muslim rule; and the West builds alliances against Russia. Putin may be forced to look to the East for allies. But first he needs to consolidate all the Russians he can find into unity with Russia or at the least into alliances. That means most of the Ukraine and what used to be known as Byelorussia and is now called the nation of Belarus. Russia has always been pan-Slavic; it will continue to be.

And it is late. More another time.

clip_image002[13]

Lack of gefilte fish

Dr Pournelle

By invitation, I have joined friends at Seder over the years. Never did they serve gefilte fish. I gather it can be served, but the lack of it will not spoil the Seder.

I think the report is little more than an exaggeration to add to the AGW hysteria.

(I googled ‘gefilte fish seder’ and found the addition of gefilte fish to the Seder came late, circa 200 CE.)

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

As the evidence piles up that weather and climate are far more complicated than are dreamed of by our highly expensive models, Believers become more and more frantic. They fiddle with events, find strange fudge factors, (http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/just-hit-the-noaa-motherlode/ ) and make other moves to defend their grants and jobs. I don’t claim to have a better model than theirs, or that I know of a better model: what I claim is that the models we have are not good enough to bet billions of dollars on. Until they can account for Greenland having dairy farms in Viking times http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/17/when-greenland-was-green-in-warmer-times/ as recorded in their records and legends and the vary name for Nova Scotia – Vinland – and the Roman Warm times and other such historical phenomena, all of which tend to get ignored in the Great Climate Models, we have no obligation to spend money guarding against what they predict. Their predictions of doom by heat now are worth no more than the frantic predictions of a possible new Ice Age that prevailed in the last century. Me, I’d far rather have to move north to escape warming than have my house covered with a kilometer of ice. And the worst of that one is that from all indications Britain went from deciduous trees to meters of ice in under a century the last time the Ice advanced.

clip_image003[8]

From Yesterday’s view: “Or more likely, Microsoft is becoming subject to the Iron Law as each department and fief seizes what it can”

In companies the Iron law does not work so well when they are not propped up by government mandate.

People stop buying the product and without compulsory tax revenue the Iron turns to water.

Apple is just waiting in the wings for MS to make a mistake and then pounce…

Brice

The Iron Law applies to bureaucracies, including peace time armies. One definition of a bureaucracy is that there is no easily obtained objective measure of performance. Private firms have a measure of performance: they either make a profit or they don’t, they grow or they shrink, they gain or they lose market share. If they don’t make money then there are stockholders to hold management’s feet to the fire.

But not always: if government imposes enough regulation on the industry, then new ventures cannot come into that business because it takes a large chunk of capital just to hire the compliance personnel to allow you to exist. The result is the creation of oligarchies and they do become bureaucracies because much of their market share is protected.

The computer business was cut throat competitive as it began and thrived because Washington didn’t have a bureaucracy to impose regulation – needed or needless or even viciously selective – on the industry. That’s being corrected and government more and more gets to pick the winners.

That can happen to companies too. When it bureaucratizes itself eventually it pays, but sometimes it takes a good while before anyone notices what is happening.

clip_image002[14]

clip_image002[15]

clip_image004

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

clip_image004[1]

clip_image005

clip_image004[2]

Gefilte fish and global warming; income inequality and public education.

View 820 Wednesday, April 16, 2014

 

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

 

clip_image002

Microsoft confirms it’s dropping Windows 8.1 support.

<http://www.infoworld.com/t/microsoft-windows/microsoft-confirms-its-dropping-windows-81-support-240407>

————

Roland Dobbins

If you still have Windows 8 and have not “updated” to 8.1, it appears that you’re lucky. Of course if all the 8.1 updates have installed properly, you’re also all right, I think. Microsoft is going to get a lot of heat about this, so they’ll be working pretty frantically to fix things. The best guess is that they’ll withdraw this goofy policy, but without either Gates or Ballmer perhaps sanity is a bit more scarce? Or more likely, Microsoft is becoming subject to the Iron Law as each department and fief seizes what it can…

Meanwhile, I’m catching up and winding down here. I did work on fiction today. Tomorrow I have to clear up some items with the California Reader so that can go on line.

clip_image002[1]

Paucity of whitefish mars Passover meals

With ice just starting to thaw on the Great Lakes, there’s a shortage of whitefish, a key ingredient in the Seder feast’s traditional gefilte fish. It’s not the only food that’s scarce.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-whitefish-shortage-20140416,0,6949238.story#ixzz2z7cduzQ1

Exactly how that fits with the theory – perhaps it is better to call it a belief – of manmade global warming is not clear.

Meanwhile we have

April 16, 2014: Earth’s poles are separated by four oceans, six continents and more than 12,000 nautical miles.

Turns out, that’s not so far apart.

New data from NASA’s AIM spacecraft have revealed "teleconnections" in Earth’s atmosphere that stretch all the way from the North Pole to the South Pole and back again, linking weather and climate more closely than simple geography would suggest.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/

It turns out that weather in Indianapolis (and other Midwest cities) correlates quite nicely with the upper atmospheric clouds in Antarctica (with a two week gap which is presumably the time required for the message about temperature in Indianapolis to get to Antarctica). I presume that more studies of the “communications time” (assuming that these weird correlations hold up, and it looks as if they might) will give us a better guess as to what the communications mechanism is. For the moment I can only think of speedy trolls, or perhaps fairies, but I’m fairly certain it’s something else.

The Gaia theorists (believers?) may be able to make something of this. And among the climatologists there will probably some who will look at their expensive models and sigh.

clip_image002[2]

When you contemplate income inequalities, think on the fact that we spend enormous a mounts of money on a school system which the rich – and most of the teachers – make considerable sacrifices so that they can keep their children out of it. One of the main hereditary advantages one can have is to be born to parents whose wealth or status or both entitle them to educate you without resorting to the public school system; just as one of the main advantages you can give your children is to free them from public education.

There are of course exceptions. We live near one of the, a Los Angeles school rated at the very top of the LAUSD system. Oddly enough, across the street from Carpenter School there is a private academy occupying the premises of Corvallis, a very highly rated Catholic girls high school. Corvallis might have merged with Notre Dame, an all male Catholic high school during most of the last century. Both Corvallis and Notre Dame were highly prized and had more applicants than seats, but the nuns at Corvallis resisted merging with Notre Dame until it was too late. Notre Dame went co-ed, and Corvallis ended up sold, to become a finishing school for Japanese students whose parents wanted them to spend some high school time or finishing school time in the US; that was during the Japanese ascendency and it declined as Japan’s economy declined. Now it is an academy for bright kids who can afford it. We’re fortunate here to have both public and private schools of some merit, but that’s a rare situation.

If you want to reduce income inequality, the first move would be to eliminate teacher ‘tenure’ in the public schools up through and including the community colleges. Promote and retain on merit, and eliminate the worst teachers every year. The US once had public schools that were the envy of the world – the result was that in World War II we had an enormously productive labor force, many of whom – the women – had never expected to do manufacturing work. Rosie the Riveter astonished Hitler and Tojo – but she also astonished much of the United States. Knudsen and Kaiser understood how to use workers with a good general education to operate well designed machinery; and we buried both Germany and Japan with the output of America.

Technology changes, but one thing seems certain to me: we have destroyed what was once the best public education system in the history of the world, and Federal Aid to Education became Federal domination of education; and the Department of Education contributed to that destruction with its crazy theories. The unions with their insistence on tenure – you can never fire a teacher for incompetence even when everyone in the school knows that teacher is incompetent – were the major cause of the decline of the schools, but the Department of Education might have accomplished it all by itself.

If you want to end income inequalities, first restore the public schools to the quality they held before and during World War II.

clip_image002[3]

clip_image003

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

clip_image003[1]

clip_image004

clip_image003[2]

Taxes, and The Entangling Alliance; Hearing Aid Report

View 820 Tuesday, April 15, 2014

But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it away from the fog of the controversy.

Nancy Pelosi. Former Speaker of the House of Representatives

Referring to the Affordable Health Care Act

 

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

 

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

 

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. Period.

Barrack Obama, famously.

 

“…the only thing that can save us is if Kerry wins the Nobel Prize and leaves us alone.”

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon

 

clip_image002

The past week I have been engaged in taxes. Then, over the weekend, there was the annual awards ceremony for the Writers of the Future winners. That starts on Friday (for me; for the winners and some of the judges like Tim Powers it starts the first of the week). Writers of the Future brings together a large group of my colleagues, the judges, so we all get to meet and have dinner, and remember those we lost during the year. I’d have been down at the WOTF affair Saturday, but Roberta and I had to go to the memorial service for Hans von Leyden, Grand Prior for the United States of the Military and Hospitaler Order of St. Lazarus of Jerusalem, and when I got home from that one of my accounting programs was behaving strangely. I wrote that program in 1980 in Commercial Basic, and I’m very used to it, but for some reason one of the auxiliary programs that summarizes journal entries and finds references to ledger pages that don’t exist – i.e. entry errors, or quite possibly a ledger page I created during the previous year and didn’t put into the master chart – didn’t work properly, and that consumed a good bit of energy along with some panic. But I managed to get it running before I went to bed Saturday.

Sunday was the Writers of the Future Awards. They have been held in a variety of places, from the plushest of Hollywood and Beverley Hills hotels to the Hall of Nations at the UN in New York, at Cape Canaveral, at NASA Houston, at the San Diego Air and Space Museum, and at the Seattle SF Hall of Fame where they had to set up their stage in a few hours and strike that set in even less time. Then for a while in the Hollywood Roosevelt where the first Oscar ceremony was held, which was great, but it must have cost an arm and two other appendages. For the past few years they’ve been held at the Ebell Theater, an old house that was decaying until the WOTF people decided they’d use it. They’ve fixed it up and repainted and renewed gilding and the old girl looks great again. I first encountered the Ebell back before Los Angeles had an opera or an opera house; a group of volunteers hoping to found the LA Opera staged Britten’s Albert Herring there and my wife dragged me to see it. Dragged, because I generally don’t want to go to anything written after 1900 unless it was by Puccini, but I can be persuaded – by Roberta at least – to try other “modern” operas. I can’t say I was all that impressed with Albert Herring, although a few years ago the LA Opera did it again in the Dorothy Chandler, and it came off well. On the other hand I’ve been dragged to really modern stuff in which not only are there no arias, there are no tunes or themes or leitmotivs or indeed any memorable bars of music, and the most dramatic moment of the opera is sung almost sotto voce. But I digress.

Anyway the WOTF presentations Sunday were followed by a reception and party, and I got home late. Monday Morning I sat down at my desk with a feeling of dread, but strangely enough, things went swimmingly, and by dinner time I knew everything I needed to know, and after dinner I was able to finish both US and California.

I use TurboTax, which is the long time descendent of a program written for the Mac called MacInTax. Back in those days if you wanted fancy printing you were far better off with a Mac than with DOS, and as for Windows, before a Canadian company produced a Windows Accelerator graphics board you couldn’t even use Microsoft Word with Windows: do a page down and go for coffee while the screen redrew. The first Macs were painfully slow, but MacInTax was usable: it was a series of pre-programmed spread sheets along with the ability to print the IRS forms, and it was wonderful for anyone who had been struggling with 1040’s and all the schedules. Change an entry and the whole form recalculated. Get it ready and print it. Took a while – it would be painful to do that now – but in those days it was miraculously fast. Over time MacInTax got bought by various outfits, and ended up (after many sea changes of course) as TurboTax. Meanwhile Windows got better and was able to handle it, and I run TurboTax on a fast Windows 7 machine.

So by Monday evening I was pretty well set, and after dinner Monday I did the final reviews of my US and California taxes – and discovered that TurboTax has changed the way it prints forms. Apparently many people now file electronically. I am not sure why I don’t, but I have been in the habit of taking my walk with my tax returns to the local post office at 4 PM on deadline day, and I don’t see any reason to change. But I would tell TurboTax I wanted to print my forms; it would exhort me to file electronically; I’d say no, I want print; and it would trundle for a while and open Acrobat, and there would be a pdf file. It never did that before. It used to just print them when told to do it.

I don’t print a lot of pdf files. I’d tell Acrobat – I’m no longer in the TurboTax program – to print, and it would say it had done so, but nothing happened. No printed forms. I tried this a couple of times. Panic mounted. Eventually I figured it out: once you are ready to print, you have to tell Acrobat which printer. It turns out it is set to use some kind of Fax print as the default. You have to poke a rather small and obscure icon of a printer, drop down a small menu, and there, listed among options like print to disk (how this is different from SAVE I didn’t bother to find out) and the fax printer, was my HP LaserJet. I chose that, told it to print as I had done already, and LO! the printer lit up and dozens of sheets of paper poured out. All was well. So before I went to bed Monday I had my taxes printed out (along with the file copy). Acrobat had in fact sent a message about no fax device, but it was hidden by the still open TurboTax. Last year TurboTax had its own print drivers and printed from the program: now it calls in Adobe, but it wasn’t very well tested, and the default printer is a fax system.  Once I figured that out all is well.  I seem to be back to doing silly things so you don’t have to.

Today I leisurely accumulated all the 1099-MISC forms that showed someone had withheld state and federal taxes, and got all the other certificates I needed, wrote the checks – I severely underpaid my Quarterly Estimated taxes last year – prepared all the envelopes, and while I was at it put together a Priority Mail box of books, fashion pictures, and some jewelry I accumulated in world travels that would be appropriate for an attractive teenager and set that up to mail to my granddaughter (well, to one of them; I have three). And that all got done, and I came home to relax a bit.

COSTCO Hearing Aids

Which is a long way of apologizing for neglecting this place for darned near a week. I think I can catch up now. Oh. And last week I went out to COSTCO and got my hearing aids reprogrammed. Their tests show that my right ear hearing hasn’t changed since I first got the COSTCO $2000 hearing aids, but the left one had. Of course we knew that from my trips to Kaiser where they did the steroid treatments I described a few weeks ago when I learned that I had suddenly gone stone deaf in my left ear. The treatments involved both lots of tiny little pills, and injections through the eardrum – nu fun at all. The wonderful lady technician at COSTCO said she could see a small scab on my eardrum but it looked like it was healing. Next week I go out to Kaiser to the audiologists. Meanwhile I can hear SOMETHING in my left ear. Not a lot, but it’s no longer stone cold deaf. I hear gongs and crashes and cracks and sudden noises, and I think it may even be adding a bit to comprehension. We’ll see.

So my report on the COSTCO hearing aids remains: for two weeks they were so wonderful I didn’t believe it: I could hear better than I have since 1950. Then one day the left ear just plain went deaf. Was not a problem with the hearing aids, both of which continue to work as well as they ever did, consuming eight of the tiny batteries a week, generally on Tuesdays and Fridays. COSTCO sells them with a 90 day return possibility but I am not about to return them. With both in I can still hear far better than with none. And my left ear is getting better. And if you have hearing problems, go try the COSTCO hearing aids. You may love them. I sure love mine.

clip_image002[1]

Entangling Alliances

We learned in 7th Grade that George Washington in his Farewell Address warned the new Republic to avoid “entangling alliances” and “not to become involved in the territorial disputes of Europe.” We have pretty well ignored that advice. We got involved in World War I, The Great War, and that prolonged that war far longer than it could have gone on, since Britain was convinced that the US could be persuaded to join Anglo-French-Italian-Russian-Japanese Entente; and Britain’s (and all the other’s) objectives were certainly territorial and Imperial. So were France’s which is why France ended up with African territories and holdings in Lebanon and Syria, and Britain ended up with Palestine and Iraq and Jordan became what amounted to British protectorates. There was also Egypt and the Sudan, and Italy in Libya, and Up The Empires.

Keynes and others regarded the Treaty of Versailles which ended The Great War as a “Carthaginian Peace”, and many have attributed the rise of the Stahlhelm, the Sturmabteilung (SA) and the National Socialist (Nazi) Party to the punitive actions of France and Britain following the Great War. When Hitler came to power, French and British troops still occupied parts of Germany, many years after the War, and there were serious “territorial disputes” left in Europe (including many pockets of ethnic Germans in territories that had been stripped from the German and Austrian Empires at the end of WW I and who wanted to rejoin the Fatherland). Meanwhile the Russian Empire had vanished, to be taken over by Stalin who openly wanted to convert the entire world to Communism.

This is not the place to discuss the proper role of America in the years leading up to 1938 and the outbreak of World War II. At the time it happened there wasn’t a lot we could have done – we had no real Army and while the Navy wasn’t insignificant, it wasn’t a two ocean blue water Navy either. All that changed but only after Roosevelt won an unprecedented third term on the promise that if he were elected not one American boy was going to die on foreign soil. After 1940 America mobilized, Detroit began to turn out tanks and trucks and artillery, airplane factories sprang up, Kaiser finished Hoover Dam and put in shipyards where there had been nothing but mud flats, and GM’s Knudsen showed everyone that if you could produce one of something, you could produce a million of them, and do it with workers who hadn’t been trained – this was the time of Rosie the Riveter. Hitler never really believed that Sharman tanks were being built by women, and where did we get all those bombers?

Up to then the limit to mass production was the skilled work needed to make machine tools; in the period leading up to WW II American industry learned how to make machine tools – tools to make the machinery for mass production machines – and to get past the limit that had previously been imposed by the requirement that workers had to be highly skilled to make tools to the precision – one thousandth of an inch – needed to build precision machine tools.  That opened the way to true mass production.  Incidentally, we are still learning that lesson, but it isn’t fully learned yet: that is, it takes highly skilled workers to build some of the production facilities required in modern large chip production.  That limit is being overcome, and Moore’s Law continues to be a good approximation of reality, with the inevitable consequence that fewer and fewer workers are required to produce more and more goods.  But that’s a theme for another time. But we learned all this just in time to allow us to tool up and swamp the Axis with our production. Airplanes, ships, tanks, artillery pieces, trucks – every American Infantry division was “motorized”; unlike the Germans we had no horse-drawn supply wagons. And we learned to do it fast.

The real question is why we had to go save the world from the Nazi’s? Why couldn’t Europe save itself? For that matter, how did a rabid expansionist nation exist in stable old Europe where once wars had been fought over a few square miles? Was it because we had intervened in The Great War? A case could be made for that, and in fact it was made by many intellectuals. The “Revisionists” wrote many books about how the US had been suckered into WW I, and much of what they said made very good sense. If you’re interested, Walter Millis wrote as good a book as you’re likely to want to read. http://www.amazon.com/Road-War-America-1914-1917-Walter-Millis/dp/0865271739 But the point of the Revisionists is that The Great War would not have been so deadly had everyone realized that it was futile, and ought to be stopped, for there was nothing to gain from it.  Alas, the expectation of American aid kept the “We need to win something from this” advocates in Britain and France form succumbing to the “Kaiser’s Peace Offensives” when the war could have been stopped much earlier on by a return to Status quo ante bellum. But if America came in, Germany could be made to pay. The Empire could be preserved.

So said the Revisionists, and many American intellectuals believed that. Many still do. But none of that debate mattered after Pearl Harbor, although if Hitler had not unwisely decided to declare war on the US to honor his alliance with Japan it is not clear what would have happened even then: there was considerable opposition to having US troops pull the British chestnuts out of the fire yet one more time.

And World War II generated the Seventy Years War, the last half of which is usually called The Cold War, and the most entangling alliance of all, NATO, which had the objective of containing the Soviet Union. George Kennan proposed the Strategy of Containment, and Strausz-Hupe, Possony, and Kintner expanded the policy in detail. http://www.worldcat.org/title/protracted-conflict-a-foreign-policy-research-inst-book-with-an-appendix-by-stephen-t-possony/oclc/632306142 Possony and I wrote The Strategy of Technology which was a Cold War book although its principles are broader than the Cold War and apply now as well as then; but that’s another matter.

My point is that we needed The Entangling Alliance right up to the fall of the Berlin Wall and perhaps a bit after that; but we had no need of it after that, yet we retained it and expanded it. NATO give territorial guarantees to a number of old and new nations who can not possibly contribute to American security, as well as to a few that have been of assistance in Iraq and Afghanistan. NATO got us involved in territorial disputes in the Balkans after the breakup of Yugoslavia, and when we took the anti-Slav side in that morass – if you can find the Good Guys in those wars following the dissolution of Yugoslavia please inform me – we began a new Cold War with Russia, although I doubt that President Clinton understood that he had done so.

And we continued to surround Russia with NATO alliances, all given US guarantees.

The Ukraine crisis has demonstrated that American guarantees of territorial integrity are not worth much: Ukraine is not a NATO member (but was apparently being courted to join NATO as well as the European Union) but both the US and Russia guaranteed its integrity provided that it gave up all nuclear weapons. The weapons were given up, but The Crimea is a part of Russia now. I do not think that this lesson has been lost in Pyongyang. (Nor has the lesson of Khadafy been lost. He gave up his nuclear weapons and even took the blame for the Lockerbie attack although the evidence is against his actual involvement; but when his time came the US could not even send in an extraction team to take him to some kind of exile. The lesson to those contemplating building a nuke or two will be understood in many places.)

Nor is the Ukraine affair over. As I pointed out here a while ago, Putin needs Russians. He needs them badly. There are Russians in Eastern Ukraine and whether they are in danger of persecution from Ukrainians is not important: they might be, and in any event, Russia needs Russians. Much of the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin sounds suspiciously like warmed over Woodrow Wilson, what with its self determination of nations and such. Of course in Wilson’s time such notions were not dancing hard to avoid being called racist. They were avowedly racist, in that they believed there were differences between the races of man. But that too is a matter for another night.

It’s getting late, and I don’t suppose I have a major point here. There is no easy way out of the mess we have put ourselves into. We owe the Ukraine a guarantee we can’t do anything about. We have committed ourselves in Syria, but we have neglected or abandoned those commitments. It is not likely that anyone will value an American guarantee so highly as those guarantees were valued in the 20th Century and the first few years of the 21st.

It is likely that Putin will not cease his imperialist moves before he has a land bridge from Russian to the Crimean peninsula. His next move after that will probably be in Moldavia. These too are territorial disputes of Europe.

And NATO, an entangling alliance, commits American blood and treasure to territorial disputes in Europe.

clip_image002[2]

Every Boy Scout (at least in the West) knows something about jackalopes, but not many know a lot.  I’m one of those who don’t know much: jackalopes weren’t part of the lore in Tennessee. I found this by accident, but it’s a rolling good story:

http://www.apex-magazine.com/jackalope-wives/

clip_image002[3]

clip_image003

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

clip_image003[1]

clip_image004

clip_image003[2]

An important security warning. Armed Federal Agents. Navy and alternative fuels

View 819 Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Additional April 9

 

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

clip_image002

Open SSL vulnerability ("Heartbeat")

Dr. Pournelle:

This one, by all accounts, appears to be a serious vulnerability that should be implemented immediately. It is all a bit geeky, but the takeaway is that, if using OpenSSL to provide SSL security for a web site, there is a way to get the credentials of anyone visiting the site.

For impact, think of hackers grabbing credential information from a bank site.

The geeky part can be seen starting here (among other places) http://krebsonsecurity.com/2014/04/heartbleed-bug-exposes-passwords-web-site-encryption-keys/ .

The Internet Storm Center has technical advice: https://isc.sans.edu/forums/diary/+Patch+Now+OpenSSL+Heartbleed+Vulnerability/17921

There is a way to test a web site for the problem; this one appears to be thorough and safe: https://www.ssllabs.com/ssltest/analyze.html .

The problem appears to be well-publicized, so most site admins already know about it, and hopefully they are into mitigation mode. End-users should be aware of it.

As for web site owners that have hosting companies for their sites; you can use the test link to check your site for the vulnerability (it only affects your site if you use SSL — the https: part of the link to pages on your site). Proactiveness would indicate the need to do a quick check via the above testing link, then contact your hosting company if the results indicate a vulnerability.

Note that Dr. Pournelle’s site (www.jerrypournelle.com ) is safe.

Regards,

Rick Hellewell

Security Dweeb

 

I received this later and am publishing it Wednesday evening:

 

.

Dr. Pournelle:

Further thoughts on the HeartBleed vulnerability, I think, in no particular order

- this vuln has been around for two years, I believe. And there is no logging available that would tell you that you got attacked.

- the Internet Storm Center guys did raise their alert level to yellow, and strongly encouraged all to check and fix

- media reports that tell you you must change all your passwords immediately are overblown. *If* a site was vulnerable, and *if* you logged into that system, and *if* an evildoer did the attack after you logged in, then you *might* have your credentials stolen. And *if* you changed your password on a vulnerable site during an attack, your credentials *might* be compromised. But that is a lot of *if’s* to worry about.

- ‘watchful waiting’ is probably the best action for individual users to take now. People should watch their financial accounts, perhaps change their passwords in a few days (which will let sites remediate as needed). And make sure that you don’t share credentials (user/pass) between sites.

- it is probably good that site owners make sure their sites are not vulnerable, and patch accordingly.

But there is some excitability going on, and perhaps the risk to the user is not as great as the media would make it seem. Still a risk, and ‘watchful waiting’ is a good idea, but "Don’t Panic".

Rick Hellewell, Security Dweeb

clip_image003

And there is this to think about.

Armed Fed Agents and Snipers? Nevada Rancher Is Taking on the Gov’t in a Battle That’s Reaching a Breaking Point

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/04/08/armed-fed-agents-and-snipers-the-decades-long-battle-between-the-govt-and-a-nevada-rancher-that-has-finally-reached-breaking-point/

s

clip_image002[1]

new alternate fuel – http://navylive.dodlive.mil/2014/04/07/energy-independence-and-the-warfighter/

I do think the US Navy may come up with some of the best alternative fuels. A dollar increase in a barrel of oil costs billions of dollars. More importantly it costs lives. Maybe there will be one "silver bullet" that fixes the problem or there will be many smaller solutions that may add up to a new way of life. There is even talk of an SPS.

http://www.wired.com/2014/03/space-solar/

I don’t care why, just that there are many possibilities being explored. There is a ocean buoy test off the coasts of Hawaii and Oregon, solar panels are sprouting up all over naval facilities, one of my personal favorites is the algae-generated diesel fuel. There are many hopeful projects out there.

I hope you are in ever increasing health.

V/r,

Rose

And I am still in the middle of getting my taxes done. There is some hearing return in my left ear: I can at least hear some sounds there. Friday morning I get my hearing aids reprogrammed. We’ll see.

As I post this the US Navy now thinks it has head some pings that might be the missing 777.  We’ll see. 

Stay well

clip_image002[2]

clip_image004

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

clip_image004[1]

clip_image005

clip_image004[2]