View 771 Monday, April 22, 2013

Air Traffic Controllers have been furloughed, and flights are delayed, but be calm. The Bunny Inspectors are still on the job, so all is well.

Chechnya and Czechoslovakia

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Greetings! Writing to you from my new email address.

Perhaps nothing more illustrates the woeful state of American education than this statement made by the Czech ambassador :

http://www.mzv.cz/washington/en/czech_u_s_relations/news/statement_of_the_ambassador_of_the_czech.html

Which was necessitated by this tweet:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151336710287161&set=a.252358827160.146546.575862160&type=1&ref=nf

Evidently the author, one Michael Matthews, leaped to the conclusion that the bombers were from Czechoslovakia and called for its nuking despite the fact that the two countries are a thousand miles apart.

Somewhere a geography teacher is crying him/herself to sleep while hitting the bottle hard.

I believe this animated gif best sums up my reaction:

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m31xm3BR1v1rtcfaqo1_500.gif

Respectfully,

Brian P.

EARTH DAY ABOUNDS.

Never fear, the icebergs will not be here next year.

I am using inspiration from Fallen Angels to celebrate Earth Day.

"Throw another log on the fire…"

Government Budgets vs. Private Industry

"Air Traffic Controllers have been furloughed, and flights are delayed, but be calm. The Bunny Inspectors are still on the job, so all is well."

As one recent letter to the editor in the Washington Post suggested, isn’t it interesting that mandating a 25% (or more) increase in the minimum wage (no small part of a company’s operating expenses) will supposedly not negatively impact a business’s operation, but a smaller cut in virtually any federal agency’s budget will apparently bring about significant downgrading in that agency’s ability to function.

Karl

Karl Fritz

Coincidences

Jerry,

This one is a bit of a stretch but once upon a time I attended a 1960 New Years party on Marlborough Street about a five minute walk from where the baloon went up. The folks I was with lived in Watertown about two and a half blocks from where the two firefights brought it down. I bet the two morons never even had a clue about how good facial ID technology has become. Considering the lousy tradecraft the FBI displayed in their first encounter with the older guy, it must have come as a hell of a shock to find that the non-Bunny Inspector side of the organization can be quite good.

Val Augstkalns

Fascinating

‘So big business and big government are uniting to pursue their mutual interest in sticking it to the little guy.’

<http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887324493704578432961601644942-lMyQjAxMTAzMDIwMTEyNDEyWj.html>

Roland Dobbins

Every time Congress has taken a serious look at proposals to boost Internet sales taxes, it has rejected them. That’s probably why pro-tax Senators are trying to rush through an online tax hike with as little consideration as possible.

As early as Monday, the Senate will vote on a bill that was introduced only last Tuesday. The text of this legislation, which would fundamentally change interstate commerce, only became available on the Library of Congress website over the weekend. And you thought ObamaCare was jammed through Nancy Pelosi‘s Democratic House in a hurry.

This thing is on rails, speeding for passage.

Mr. Enzi’s Marketplace Fairness Act discriminates against Internet-based businesses by imposing burdens that it does not apply to brick-and-mortar companies. For the first time, online merchants would be forced to collect sales taxes for all of America’s estimated 9,600 state and local taxing authorities.

New Hampshire, for example, has no sales tax, but a Granite State Web merchant would be forced to collect and remit sales taxes to all the governments that do. Small online sellers will therefore have to comply with tax laws created by distant governments in which they have no representation, and in places where they consume no local services.

It is in a way the end of the Nation of States, and a very strong move toward abolishing the notion of state sovereignty.

subject: EARTH DAY

Hi, Doc.

If one thing is trying to kill you, it’s called an enemy.

If everything is trying to kill you, it’s called Nature.

Earth Day is the result of a mass outbreak of Stockholm Syndrome.

Matthew Joseph Harrington

e pur si muove (the motto of consensus deniers since 1633)

View 771 Sunday, April 21, 2013

"Agents think the sleeper cell has up to a dozen members and has been waiting several years for their day to come.”

<http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/boston-bombers-fbi-hunting-12-strong-1844844#.UXM54Yqm6hA.twitter>

Roland Dobbins

I have heard this from other sources as well. The Brothers Tsarnaev expected to get away with it, melting back into the woodwork and never being suspected. In that scenario, in due time some organization not associated with the Tsarnaev family would step forward and take credit for the Marathon Bombing. We have little experience with such long term activities of this sort. Communist and anarchist organizations more or less gave up “propaganda of the deed”, preferring other means for undermining confidence in the legitimacy of the government. Perhaps that is coming back?

Those who advocate suicidal jihad (generally for execution by someone else) find that the period in which the prospective jihadist is ready and willing does not last long: it is very difficult to plan long term events which require suicide for their culmination.  Obviously there are some operatives willing to spend a long time planning to die for their cause, but there is never a surplus of them. There is speculation that at least some of those involved in the 911 hijackings did not know that the end of the affair would be using the airplanes as cruise missiles. Obviously the pilots knew the mission and did not expect to survive.

In the Boston Marathon case it is pretty clear that both participants expected to get away with it. When they found that they had been discovered they had a sudden need for the means and wherewithal to flee, and it’s pretty clear that they had given that matter no thought; the most likely reason for that was they didn’t expect to have to do it.

If there is evidence of long term sleeper cells but no file on the Brothers Tsarnaev, can we draw any conclusions on how well the security organizations are working now?

View 770 Saturday, April 20, 2013

The bomb went off near the Boston Marathon finish line. Across the street from one of the bombs is Lords and Taylor, a department store. The mother of the bombers is now reported to have been arrested for shoplifting at Lords and Taylors some months ago. I have also heard it reported that the surveillance photographs that identified the bombers was from Lords and Taylors. This is probably all gubbish, but it is a bit peculiar.

View 770 Friday, April 19, 2013

The news is full of contradictions. The radio announcers buzz with contradictions. Here’s about the best account I have seen, and it has a byline of 1321 (1:21 PM) EDT

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_POLICE_CONVERGE_MASS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-04-19-07-09-32

Thanks to Roland Dobbins who finds these things from his post in Hong Kong…

I think I would not have placed Muslim Chechens with Russian names very high on my list of suspect profiles in the Marathon bombing. The where was clearly settled by their having been at Bunker Hill Community College and UM Dartmouth – Boston was just unlucky. The date was chosen by the event. The why is still open. The younger brother is said to have driven over the body of his older brother in his wild escape from a police road block. That, at least, is what my radio is telling me, when I can listen to it. For some odd reason my digital radio (socalled high definition radio) has some terrible RFI noises in it today. I can move the antenna around and it goes away but the position of the antenna is so critical that I can’t move it far. Doesn’t affect FM. Very odd. The I heart radio web connection is clear enough without static.

Anyway we now have official information that these are Shiite Muslims. Their relatives are singing paeans to life in America and how great a place this is.

From paradoctor

Get Me Rewrite!

I’m telling you, this has been a week directed by Edward Wood and scripted by Cordwainer Bird. I want my time refunded. Roger Ebert says thumbs down!

I see the scriptwriting scene going like this:

Wood: I’ve got the green light for a project, and I want you on board.

Bird: Great, boss! What ya got?

Wood: It’s an action movie.

Bird: Aww, maaan, I hate action movies! So crass! So stupid!

Wood: I know, I know…

Bird: And they’re always full of plot holes! It’s like the writers don’t care! No respect for the audience!

Wood: Tell me all about it!

Bird: Is this some kind of money laundering scheme?

Wood: Look, are you in or not? The pay’s good.

Bird: All right, I’m in! If the producers want a piece of crap, then Cordwainer Bird can poop one out!

Wood: That’s the spirit! So can you do explosions?

Bird: Sure I can do explosions! You want pressure-cooker IEDs or a big fertilizer bomb?

Wood: Why not both?

Bird: Okay, both! How do I tie them together?

Wood: Why bother?

Bird: Okay, a couple IEDs, and a completely unrelated industrial-accident fertilizer explosion! That’ll keep the audience guessing!

Wood: And have the accident kill five times more people than the IEDs.

Bird: Ah, you want _loser_ terrorists? Can do!

Wood: Can you do anthrax?

Bird: Anthrax is lame-o. How about ricin?

Wood: Ricin it is. Mailed to a Democrat and a Republican.

Bird: That makes sense. Related or not?

Wood: Oh, I don’t know… let’s say unrelated.

Bird: More misdirection, good. The audience won’t know what hit them til they leave the theater and they notice that their wallets are lighter.

Wood: And let’s have a carjacking, a chase scene, a shoot-out, and a city locked down for a man-hunt.

Bird: Standard fare. I could write it in my sleep. Now let’s get to the plot, if any. Time? Place? Bad guy? Good guys?

Wood: The good guys are the cops, plus a zillion citizen detectives with phone cameras and Internet connections.

Bird: Ah, a futuristic policier! Sounds like fun.

Wood: Time and place of the money shot… something all-American. Wholesome and fun…. I got it; the Boston Marathon.

Bird: Why the Boston Marathon?

Wood: Why not?

Bird: You’re right, it doesn’t have to make any sense, it just has to make an impression. So: two IEDs at the Boston Marathon.

Wood: At the finish line of the Boston Marathon.

Bird: So this is a sports flick too, good.

Wood: On Tax Day. And also Patriot Day.

Bird: Wave that flag, bro. It’s not just red-white-and-blue; it’s green.

Wood: The wounded all survive.

Bird: A medical heroism flick too, good. And the bad guys are…? White supremacists? Islamists? Loners?

Wood: Why not all three?

Bird: White supremacist Moslems? That doesn’t make any sense!

Wood: So what?

Bird: No, really, it won’t work! Nor does loners, plural!

Wood: Alright, already… just white Moslems, drop the supremacist. And they’re a loner pair; it’s an alienated-buddy flick.

Bird: They’re brothers; it’s a family flick.

Wood: That’ll do.

Bird: But white Moslems? Who are they? What’s their motivation?

Wood: Good one… I got it! They’re Chechens!

Bird: Chechens?! That’s Russia’s headache, not ours!

Wood: Like you said, it doesn’t have to make any sense. Besides, they’re loners, meaning they’re idiots.

Bird: How to make friends and influence people. Got it.

Wood: They need names. Something weird and Russian.

Bird: How about… Tsarnaev?

Wood: How about what?

Bird: Tsarnaev! I put a tsar in it! Don’t be naive!

Wood: The magic of scriptwriting. Their first names?

Bird: Tamerlan. Dzhokhar.

Wood: Tamerlane? Joker?! Nobody will believe that!

Let me hasten to add that the Cordwainer Bird in this story bears no resemblance to my friend who often uses that appellation as a disclaimer when he has been associated with a project he disclaims…

Why bomb America because the Russians suppress Muslim insurgents in Chechnya?  It isn’t al Qaeda although they probably learned to make the bomb from the al Qaeda recipe in their Inspire on-line magazine; but the Chechnya militants  are  Shiites by my reckoning. As I understand it the Chechnya militants are milleniests who believe they can bring about the foundation of the True Caliphate, and look for the appearance of the Kahdi; think the Dervish uprising, Gordon at Khartoum, that sort of thing.  Of course I am no expert on these things.  I know a few Chechnya seperatists (or did, a decade ago) but they were secular and political, not Muslim militants.

This was not a well organized action. There was certainly no escape plan.  I heard an expert – qualified because he has been writing about terrorism since 1978, which would qualify me, as Possony and I were writing about the subject much earlier than that – conclude that a moment ago. He didn’t conclude that they had expected to blend back into their lives after the bombing, and had not thought they might be identified from photographs and would have to flee, meaning that they needed money but had no plans for acquiring it.  After that whatever plans they had were irrelevant. One has to give the younger one credit for his escape from the police chase.

I keep saying I don’t do breaking news, and I sure don’t have much in the way of sources, so I suppose I am caught up in the ramble like everyone else.

Jerry:

I found your comment relating escape plans and organized action to be very strange indeed. To quote your comment at

https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=13471

"This was not a well organized action. There was certainly no escape plan."

I immediately wondered what you thought the escape plan was for the jihadists who took down the World Trade Center or the one who murdered the soldiers at Fort Hood or the many others who blow themselves up all around the world. What was the escape plan for Sueng-Hui Cho’s superbly organized and well-planned Virginia Tech massacre on 4/16/2007? What in the world does the lack of an escape plan indicate about organization?

Best regards,

–Harry M.

Perhaps I wasn’t clear? My conclusion is that they never intended to go anywhere; they would blend back into the background and go on living as they always had.  They didn’t intend to run anywhere. No escape plan.  They had not fathomed that they would be identified from recorded photographs.

= = = = =

So the younger brother has been taken alive, meaning there is a possibility of learning just what arguments were persuasive enough to seduce these people into Jihad. Only a possibility of course.