View 789 Thursday, September 12, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

What we have is all we will ever have.

Conservationist motto attributed to John Muir

If a freighter with 1000 tons of Sarin FOB Iskenderum, return address Russian Consulate, and a delivery address of Secretary John Kerry’s mile long driveway showed up in Boston harbor would US customs allow them to land? Perhaps there would be a long pdf document on how to reclaim the Sarin components for profit.

Today’s Wall Street Journal column:

Henninger: The Laurel and Hardy Presidency

After the Syrian slapstick, it’s time to sober up U.S. foreign policy.

After writing in the London Telegraph that Monday was "the worst day for U.S. and wider Western diplomacy since records began," former British ambassador Charles Crawford asked simply: "How has this happened?"

On the answer, opinions might differ. Or maybe not. A consensus assessment of the past week’s events could easily form around Oliver Hardy’s famous lament to the compulsive bumbler Stan Laurel: "Here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten us into!"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323595004579069291111631648.html

Henninger goes a bit farther than I would, but makes some serious points. Whether they make a case for continuous US intervention in Syria is not so clear. Russia is arming Iran with S-300 Surface to Air missiles; unlike the surplus Seventy Years War surplus stuff Russia has sent into the Middle East in the past, this is pretty good stuff, and a good cause for Israeli concern. One more reason to remember that until the US got involved, Iran and Iraq were at war and neutralized each other.

Secretary Kerry is now talking tough and threatening a military strike against Syria unless they comply with what amount to impossible demands. There is no word on whether this strike will still be unbelievably small, now that we understand from the President that the US military does not do pin pricks. Meanwhile the President has asked Congress to delay the vote authorizing him to bombard unspecified locations in Syria with more than a pin prick. We can surmise that makers of teddy bears to put atop the broken things and dead people that will result from this unbelievably small bombardment are at work just in case, since bombs and missiles often break things and kill people. The President has said he doesn’t need Congress’s permission to lob a few missiles in the general direction of some part of Syria, so the vote doesn’t really matter.

There do seem to be many opportunities for another fine mess with Secretary Kerry and President Obama. The State Department needs adult supervision. Even under Reagan and Bush is spawned a Foreign Service unable to convince Saddam Hussein that he would become an actual enemy rather than continue his status as informal commensurate so long as he warred with Iran if he dared to actually invade Kuwait. The message State gave him was ambiguous and uninformative as well as unpersuasive. One of Bush’s political friends from Texas ought to have been sent as Ambassador but State claimed to have that post as a non-political plumb. The result was a fine mess. Then after we had conquered Iraq, State sent us the most incompetent proconsul in Mesopotamia since the fading Roman Empire in the person of Brenner. The result was another fine mess.

Obama needs to find an adult to supervise the Department of State. Let Kerry head a special organization to dispose of the Syrian Sarin. Maybe Mr. Gore could participate. There’s money to be made at this. But get some adult supervision to state before we have yet another fine mess.

I missed this and perhaps you did. It’s important good news.

A Drop of Blood. An Instant Diagnosis

Elizabeth Holmes: The Breakthrough of Instant Diagnosis

A Stanford dropout is bidding to make tests more accurate, less painful—and at a fraction of the current price.

By

JOSEPH RAGO

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324123004579055003869574012.html

Palo Alto, Calif.

‘The reality within our health-care system today is that when someone you care about gets really sick, by the time you find that out it’s most often too late to do anything about it. It’s heartbreaking. Because in those moments, there’s nothing you wouldn’t do to change it, and too often you’re helpless," says Elizabeth Holmes. "We’re finding cancer when you have a tumor, or heart disease by virtue of the fact that you’re having a heart attack."

She wants to change that.

Ms. Holmes, a 29-year-old chemical and electrical engineer and entrepreneur, dropped out of Stanford as an undergraduate after founding a life sciences company called Theranos in 2003. Her inventions, which she is discussing in detail here for the first time, could upend the industry of laboratory testing and might change the way we detect and treat disease.

– – –

The secret that hundreds of employees are now refining involves devices that automate and miniaturize more than 1,000 laboratory tests, from routine blood work to advanced genetic analyses. Theranos’s processes are faster, cheaper and more accurate than the conventional methods and require only microscopic blood volumes, not vial after vial of the stuff. The experience will be revelatory to anyone familiar with current practices, which often seem like medicine by Bram Stoker.

A Theranos technician first increases blood flow to your hand by applying a wrap similar to one of those skiing pocket warmers, then uses a fingerstick to draw a few droplets of blood from the capillaries at the end of your hand. The blood wicks into a tube in a cartridge that Ms. Holmes calls a "nanotainer," which holds microliters of a sample, or about the amount of a raindrop. The nanotainer is then run through the analyzers in a Theranos laboratory. Results are usually sent back to a physician, but a full blood work-up—metabolic and immune markers, cell count, etc.—was in my inbox by the time I walked out the door. (Phew: all clear.)

It’s the kind of modern, painless service that consumers rarely receive in U.S. health care, though Ms. Holmes makes the point the other way around: "We’re here in Silicon Valley inside the consumer technology world . . . and what we think we’re building is the first consumer health-care technology company. Patients are empowered by having better access to their own health information, and then by owning their own data."

And a Theranos clinic may be coming soon to a pharmacy near you. On Monday the company is launching a partnership with Walgreens for in-store sample-collection centers, with the first one in Palo Alto and expanding throughout California and beyond. Ms. Holmes’s long-term goal is to provide Theranos services "within five miles of virtually every American home."

The entire article is very much worth reading. The process is cheaper, faster, and more accurate than conventional lab work done even in the best places: my recent blood work at Kaiser involved nine vials of blood, which was no problem for me but could be for others at my age.

The only problem here is the Federal government which is being furiously lobbied by the existing health technicians unions (one can hardly blame them; perhaps they deserve some early retirement plan?) which seeks to protect their jobs. We can watch the outcome with abated breath…

If you missed this  http://www.mediaite.com/online/whoa-take-a-look-at-esquires-epically-bad-911-fail/

Re: Putin Speaks

Jerry,

Linked from Drudge Report, a New York Times Op-Ed by Vladimir V. Putin, president of Russia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=0

He even indirectly mentioned the specter of teddy bears. I think Putin is kicking Obama’s butt.

Regards,

George

Colonel Putin is not a fool.  He also understands the Russian temperament. Although he prefers to take no chances,  I suspect he can win a purely democratic election. His motives are not clear, but Russian nationalism is certainly a part of his motivation.

And I again call attention to this: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/09/05/mr-obama-youve-already-lost-syrian-war-here-how-to-win-big-one/

View 789 Wednesday, September 11, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

This was Sable’s 11^th birthday. Sable is our red Siberian Husky whom we brought home on Friday, October 25, 2002. She was born on September 11, 2002. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/images/photos2002/sable1.html

In November last year we found out she had cancer in her right foreleg. The vet thought that if we cut off her leg she’d have about six months to live, otherwise considerably less. We had no difficulty deciding not to amputate her leg. She’s an active dog, and she would have been miserable as a cripple. We brought her home expecting her to get worse over time, and when she wasn’t enjoying life any longer we would have to do something about it; but until then she was acting like a happy dog, able to take walks although not go up the hill…

Well that was nearly a year ago. We had a good walk today, and she’s still a happy dog, not as active as she’d like to be, but she likes being with us. Of course she’s figured out that we’re letting her get away with begging and getting on the couch in the TV room and generally claiming entitlements – some would say we spoil her rotten – but we’re learning to deal with that too. We’re learning to say no again.

So we had a good day.

For most of the world 9-11 has a different meaning,

I fear I am not in the mood to discuss that day.

The President made about as good a speech as possible under the circumstances. He may have got us off the road to war.

I have yet to see evidence convincing to me that Assad ordered the use of Sarin in a Damascus suburb where it was sure to be known to the foreign press, and I have yet to be given a motive for his doing it. If the Sarin has been used to score a decisive gain in the civil war it might be convincing but to kill 1200 people? Send 1000 soldiers with 200 rounds each if all you want is a body count. For what purpose I can’t say. A couple of thousand random civilian casualties will not change a war of that magnitude.

The counter argument is that Assad isn’t really winning, and is getting desperate, and that he hasn’t read Machiavelli – he is willing to do his enemies a small injury, even at the cost of using war gas. All right, let’s use some but not much, and be sure to do it in a place where it is certain that the world will know it was used.

I have this from an old hand:

Sigint indicates that Assad didn’t order that attack

Dear Jerry:

Signal intercepts indicate that rogue elements in the Syrian military may have done the chemical attacks on their own. Assad is still technically responsible, but this may explain why he is now so ready to give those weapons up. If he can’t control them and their use, then he really is more vulnerable to outside military action, and not just from us. His neighbors will worry about them, too.

It is not an unreasonable hypothesis.

View 789 Tuesday, September 10, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

Ninety percent of the American people agree on sending Congress to Syria

The Onion

How to win in Syria.

 

Hi Jerry,

Someone has been reading your columns.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/09/05/mr-obama-youve-already-lost-syrian-war-here-how-to-win-big-one/

Cheers,

Doug=

A realist. There used to be a lot of us. The obvious Middle East Policy for the US is to develop our energy resources and let the Arabs learn to live on much lower budgets. And Herman Kahn thought that the 21st Century would be dominated by a US/Russian common interest.  It could still happen.

I have two questions I hope that President Obama will answer tonight:

We grant that Sarin was used in a Damascus suburb under rebel control. Can you show the evidence that this was ordered by Bashar as-Assad"?

Who does the United States want to be the winner of the Syrian Civil War?

The noon news closed with more confusion about the Syrian situation. Perhaps the President will accept Secretary Kerry’s ultimatum as the condition for not making an incredibly minor – oops, unbelievably small — strike in Syria. Perhaps Russia will collect all Syrian weapons of mass destruction.

Meanwhile I have yet to see any rational reason for Bashar al-Assad to have employed Sarin in a Damascus suburb. The casual statement by war enthusiasts that Assad was desperate and used them in the civil war because he was afraid of losing is nonsense: he isn’t losing and that suburb isn’t a vital asset one way or another – and indeed contains a number of Loyalists as well as rebels. Using Sarin there has no upside, and the downside of using Sarin anywhere is enormous. Had the Sarin knocked out a major rebel headquarters or troop concentration one might see the temptation for the regime to use it: but all it did was kill some unarmed civilians and children. Why would anyone be made enough to choose that target to bet his life on?

Meanwhile “Human Rights Groups” flood the Internet with stories about how the evidence is growing to show that Assad used war gasses == but when I read the actual story rather than the headline, I see growing evidence that Sarin was used, but none whatever on who used it. I hear rumors of satellite photographs of missile launches from Assad controlled territory landing in the relevant target areas, but it’s all hearsay – no one seems to have seen the photographs, only to have been told they exist. We are reminded of the aria on calumny in Mozart’s Barber of Seville.

I don’t say that Bashar al-Assad is a good guy who would never use war gasses on civilians; I don’t know his inner feelings and motivations. I do say he is not a fool, and using Sarin on a suburb of your own capital – where all the foreign news people will be concentrated and known to the Free Syria press agents – when there is no conceivable military purpose is the act of a fool. The only explanation other than that it was an act of military desperation – which it could not have been – has been by some neocon warriors who say it was a sheer act of defiance. Since Assad denies he ordered any use of Sarin, it’s a peculiar act of defiance. I defy you, oops, no, really, I didn’t do it—

We continue on the road to war. Now the President needs to justify keeping on a bumbling Secretary of State who make us all miss Hillary Clinton. And to convince the Congress to give him permission to make an unbelievably small air strike against Syria. Only the Russian say that we must not use force. There’s no one out there that we can trust, no side that we want to win the Syrian Civil War –

One course of action almost makes sense: The United States tells Syria to change dictators. Get rid of Assad or we will. What we did n Afghanistan. The difference is that we say in advance that Assad must Go, but once that has been accomplished we get out (if we ever got in there in the first place). Of course this asserts a US hegemony that will require a much larger military than we have at present – at least a 450 ship navy and even that is probably not enough – since we in effect are saying that we have become the Enforcer of World Order. At some point that will be opposed, either directly or through proxies, by China and Russia, both of whom have oppressed minorities willing to stage some kind of revolt. There are nations with unhappy minorities who will not easily assume the role of banana republics in the days of United Fruit. If we are going to bully the world into obeying it’s own ideals, we will need troops to do it. Even that won’t do it all – if we are going to adopt the role of competent empire, we will also need to learn how to recruit puppet kings and local auxiliary forces, build a Foreign Legion, levy tribute on our allies (Athens moved the Treasury of the Delian League to Athens) and – well, converting from Republic to competent Empire is a serious step.

But tonight we will find out what President Obama believes must be done.

Live Free or die.

‘Cunningham is charged with possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose and unauthorized possession of a weapon. He is to appear in court Sept. 26.’

<http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/canada/archives/2013/09/20130906-110915.html>

—

Roland Dobbins

PETERBOROUGH, ON – A 24-year-old man faces two charges after he used bear spray to fend off a man who was trying to mug him in the street Thursday, police say.

William Charles Cunningham was walking along Bethune St. at about 4:30 p.m. when another man allegedly tried to grab him and demanded cash.

Cunningham defended himself by spraying the robber in the face, police said.

Officers who responded to his call for help discovered he was carrying both the bear spray and a large folding knife, police said.

Cunningham is charged with possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose and unauthorized possession of a weapon. He is to appear in court Sept. 26.

Jacob Scott Collins, 26, is charged with robbery and breach of probation. He was scheduled to appear in court Friday.

This got my attention because of the dateline Peterborough and my failing eyesight: I saw it as Peterborough New Hampshire. New Hampshire has the state motto “Live free or die,” which is no bad first approximation as a first instruction on how to stay a free society. Then I saw that it WAS Peterborough, ON, so this is an example of where we are going rather than where we are. Perhaps. We will see.

Possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose, and unauthorized possession of a weapon. So it goes.

The last time I had any contact with Ontario police was when I was GOH ad a convention and the Regional Police raided the convention because one of the convention entertainments was a singing group that featured as part of their performance a stuffed pillow called ‘the Penisaurus’, which looked exactly like you think it does. Apparently although the event in the hotel ballroom was supposed to be for convention member only, some mundanes staying in the hotel begged their way past the door dragon for a look at the fan event, were horrified, and ran out to call the Regional Police.  I can see the scene at HQ; “Hey Sarge, they say there’s a bunch of science fiction people having a lewd costume party out at a hotel, how many want to volunteer for the raid?”  “Me, Me. Me.”  In any event about 20 cops showed up and raided the place.  Eventually the Penisaurus was banished, two girls were told to put on sweaters, and the police went away.  I have remembered Ontario ever since. Now I have something else to remember them by.

Be careful in New Orleans

WND EXCLUSIVE

Police not interested in brutal beating on tape

Officer tells victims ‘zero’ chance of finding attackers

A couple’s early-morning walk in the world famous French Quarter of New Orleans turned into a nightmare when they were beaten savagely by three black attackers in a horrifying scene that was caught on camera.

Then it got worse: The responding police officer decided it wasn’t worth filing a report.

According to the local CBS affiliate, the three perpetrators surrounded, verbally abused and then attacked the two victims as they walked through the French Quarter around 6 a.m. on Saturday.

The woman was punched in the mouth, while the man was tackled and had his face stomped as he lay helpless on the ground. The male victim suffered a concussion and a severely broken jaw that required surgery.

The video, despite breaks, caught most of the action leading up to the violence. It shows the two victims, both white, crossing the street as they are stalked by three young, African-American males who then surround and strike them.

After a break in the footage, the two victims are shown, clearly hurt. The surveillance camera also picked up their friend, who flagged down the obstinate officer for help and talked with him for about six minutes.

The officer is never seen getting out of his vehicle in the footage, but police officials stated to local media that he got out of his car sometime during his response.

Despite the evidence shown in the video and the report of the victims’ friend to the responding officer, the policeman ruled the call “unfounded” and didn’t write a report of the incident.

The officer, who was about to go off his shift at 7 a.m., even told the friend who detailed the crime to him that there was “zero” chance of the assailants being caught.

http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/police-not-interested-in-brutal-beating-on-tape/

I don’t know this web site, but it sounds like New Orleans.

A new instance of the Iron Law

“New Twist in Feud with Microlender.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323864604579065091325080238.html

 

Bangladesh To Pursue Legal Action Against Grameen’s Founder Yunus

Move Apparently Escalates a Long-Running Political Feud

 

By
• SYED ZAIN AL-MAHMOOD

DHAKA, Bangladesh—Bangladesh’s government on Monday instructed authorities to pursue legal action against the Nobel Prize-winning founder of Grameen Bank for alleged tax evasion, escalating a long-running apparent political feud.

The decision to move against Muhammad Yunus, former managing director of Grameen, a microlending pioneer credited with helping many rural Bangladeshis escape poverty, was taken at a cabinet meeting headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, according to cabinet secretary Musharraf Hossain Bhuiyan.

Which is to say that the government sees an enterprise it doesn’t pay for and doesn’t own, but which it doesn’t control, and it’s popular.  It’s beak wetting time.

WHO USED SARIN?

"It wasn’t the government of Bashar al-Assad that used sarin gas or any other gas in Ghouta. We are sure about this because we overheard a conversation between rebels. It pains me to say it because I’ve been a fierce supporter of the Free Syrian Army in its rightful fight for democracy since 2012."

<http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504735/20130909/syria-chemical-attack-assad-rebels-blame-hostage.htm>

—

Roland Dobbins

I have no other information on this but it makes more sense than that Assad decided to pluck Obama’s beard and blow it in his face without any gain from doing it.

However, we also have this from a well informed observer:

Briar Patch?

Jerry,

I predict we will soon see an outburst of Strange New Respect for Constitutional separation of powers and Congressional prerogatives on the part of the President. Consider that his usual tendency in these things is to delay and do nothing, from the (rumored) repeated postponements of the bin Laden raid, to the apparent refusal to allow any response to the Benghazi attack, to the prolonged inaction on Iranian nukes. His sudden call for Congressional approval before attacking Syria makes sense only as a way for him to acquire someone else to blame before he ignores all the advisers telling him that having drawn a red line he must now act. Go ahead, Congress – force him to do nothing – throw him in that briar patch!

It still looks to me most likely that the source of the nerve gas was the Syrian artillery that was bombarding the neighborhood at the time.

The radical jihadists among the rebels do seem entirely morally capable of doing such an attack as a false-flag operation, but their physical capability to pull it off undetected is less clear. That said, the chain of command involved seems very unclear – one widely reported communications intercept has a senior Syrian in the nominal chain of command calling the local artillery unit and yelling at them "what are you doing?!" once he heard nerve gas was used. Which could fit with any number of scenarios, of course.

Regardless, the Syrian motive for such an attack seems clear to me – they’re severely short of infantry capable of effectively clearing a defended urban neighborhood. If they can get away with using nerve gas without major repercussions – the jury’s still out – this problem is solved, between the actual gas capability and the morale effects on other would-be holdout neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, the only halfway plausible argument I’ve heard for our intervening in Syria is the effect on Iran’s leadership and their push for nuclear weapons – either intimidating or emboldening them, depending. It occurs to me to modestly propose that we eliminate the middleman and go to the root of the problem: Use this crisis to build up forces in the region, then pivot and comprehensively destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities by surprise.

That, alas, would require a CinC with imagination, nerve, and resolve.

Our complete lack in that department is the overwhelming practical argument for doing nothing, as both Congress and country seem to be rapidly concluding.

Porkypine

I do not see why a non-decisive war gas attack would ever be attractive to the Assad regime; I suppose it could be a rogue effort within the Alawite command structure, but I don’t find that likely either he regime knows that using Sarin is a desperation move and there is no evidence that Assad doesn’t think he can win this civil war – provided that the Great Powers don’t intervene against him.  Other than nukes, using Sarin is the move most likely to get the west to attack him. I think it more likely that this is a false flag operation against Assad than a disastrous mistake by the Alawites.

If we were to intervene, on whose side should we intervene? We can break things and kill people. Whom should we kill?

View 789 Monday, September 09, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

The Syrian story has become bizarre. John Kerry, an unlikely Secretary of State, said that if Bashar al-Assad were to turn over all his chemical weapons http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/09/us-syria-chemical-weapons-attack-john-kerry the US would not kill some Syrians and destroy Syrian property because someone in Syria used chemical weapons to kill some Syrians. Whether he meant that or not, President Putin immediately went to President Bashar Al-Assad and proposed that Syria turn in all his chemical weapons, and Assad said sure, I don’t need no chemical weapons. Don’t have many, who do I give them to?

Which is apparently where things stand now. There are rumors that President Obama is not pleased. There are rumors that President Putin is cackling gleefully. There are rumors that the US fleet has now been told to widen its target list. There are –

And that’s the way some people think it is, or at least they say so.

And why I tend to stay away from breaking news.

Tactics vs. Strategy

Dear Jerry,

Interesting & thought-provoking:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/09/09/sun-tzu-would-be-very-unhappy-with-obama-plans-for-syria-strike/?intcmp=HPBucket

Sun Tzu: “Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”

Syria is a symptom of a larger problem. Over the past 12 years (since the 9/11 attack) tactics to counter terror have distracted us from achieving any strategic focus.

We have now, as we have for the past decade, the finest, most lethal fighting force that mankind has ever seen.

There is no doubt that we would quickly dispatch any military challenger. From Fallujah, Iraq to Gardyz, Afghanistan, to other secret battles that are not yet public – we have won hundreds of tactical engagements and yet, somehow, we have yet to win a single strategic victory.

During World War II there was a clear strategy that was followed bring victory in that war in less than five years.

During the Cold War, there was a very clear strategy of containment and mutually assured destruction and all tactics were based on insuring the success of these larger strategies.

Our great tactical capacity now drives our Pentagon budget and creates the temptation for politicians to this lethal capability without regard to a strategy that would focus our efforts to achieve global success.

I would love to see some reasoned discussion of this, especially from a military point of view.

How’s Sable doing?

Thanks for all you do,

Tom Brendel

As I have observed before, if you want to be in a horse race you need a horse. If you want to intervene in a civil war you have to choose a side to support. If your goal is simply to keep everyone killing each other and you wish a pox on all their houses, you don’t want to go breaking things and killing people because someone will catch on. If you do not know your goals, it is hard to achieve them.

Our vet says Sable is the wonder dog: she was supposed to be dead months ago, but she’s a happy dog enjoying life. She got a hot spot on her tail and had to have some of it shaved, and she didn’t like that much, but that’s recovered. She doesn’t run much, and we bandage her cancer leg to protect it from being broken, and she does get a pain killer every day, but she enjoys a walk (in the evenings – it has been 100 here in LA most days – and she spends a lot of time being with us. Every day is a gift.

It’s lunch time.

Despair is a sin.

Obama’s Mideast policy

Hello Jerry,

Here is a short commentary on Obama’s Syrian (and Mideast in general) policy by a pundit in the ‘New Yorker’:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/08/obama-promises-syria-strike-will-have-no-objective.html

I must say that of the commentary that I have seen on the subject, this one is the one that best explains the policy as observed.

Bob Ludwick=

So even the New Yorker is on that track. Or is competing with the Onion.