Election Grinds on; Good news from ARPA; Data on Global Warming; Aliens among us? And a lot of mail

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, March 08, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

Under Capitalism, the rich become powerful. Under Socialism, the powerful become rich.

Under Socialism, government employees become powerful.

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The Republican Establishment, having alienated at least two thirds of its base – those who participate in primaries, anyway – has decided they must do something. They aren’t going to do much about the issues that have alienated their voters; they’re going all out to Stop Trump. So far they haven’t noticed, or pretend not to notice, that the only non-Trump candidate who might be able to appeal to the Trump voters is Texas Senator Cruz, who is not part of the Country Club establishment that is content to stay in the minority so long as their positions are safe, or that he is a great a threat to their sinecures as anyone.

They’ll learn. First stop Trump. Then woo Cruz, get him to join up with the insiders, win him over, make him grow in office. It worked in the past.

There’s a good chance that it’s too late. As it stands, an open convention would present them with a choice between Trump and Cruz. Mr. Trump scares people, and probably doesn’t really want the splendid misery of the Presidential office. It really is hard work, and it is unrelenting. An advisory post would better suit him, so long as he trusts the actual candidate.

We’ll see.

Meanwhile, Hillary’s problem grow: http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/email-scandal-hillary-clintons-last-defense-just-blew-up/

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0045 AM 

Trump and Cruz have wiped out Marco, so it’s pretty well a contest between them; and Trump’s ahead, but being surprisingly blasé about the negative campaigning against him.  The Establishment country club Republicans don’t really have a viable candidate.  We’re in uncharted waters with no pilot.

 

 

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And now for some good news.

Reusable spaceplane tops DARPA’s budget request, again

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WASHINGTON — For the second consecutive year, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s top-funded space program is an experimental spaceplane intended to make frequent trips to orbit.

DARPA asked for $50 million in the Pentagon’s 2017 budget request for its Experimental Spaceplane 1, or XS-1 program. That’s up from a $30 million the agency asked for during the fiscal year 2016 budget cycle.

XS-1 aims to develop a reusable first stage that could carry an expendable upper stage capable of placing payloads weighing up to 1,800 kilograms into orbit. DARPA said the vehicle could ultimately fly 10 times in 10 days and boost payloads into low Earth orbit for less than $5 million per launch.

Three industry teams are working on the program: Boeing and Blue Origin; Masten Space Systems and XCOR Aerospace; and Northrop Grumman and Virgin Galactic.

In July, all three teams received funding to continue design work and risk reduction activities in preparation for a production contract.

DARPA said in 2014 it intended to pick one team in 2015 to work toward demonstration flight in 2018, but now it is unclear when such a downselect will occur.

DARPA said in budget documents that it plans to complete system and subsystem designs later this year, as well as coordinate with the Federal Aviation Administration for preliminary flight test planning.

A critical design review is planned for fiscal year 2017, the documents said.

In October, the Government Accountability Office said none of several Defense Department efforts to field quick-reaction launch vehicles, including XS-1, have advanced past the development stage.

In its 2017 budget request DARPA asked for $175 million for its space programs and technology office, significantly higher than the $127 million budget for 2016.

In addition to $50 million for XS-1, next year’s budget would also include:

  • $45 million for the RadarNet program. an effort to design a deployable lightweight, low-power and wideband-capable communications antenna for cubesats.
  • $33 million for Robotic Servicing of Geostationary Satellites, which would establish a robotics operation in geosynchronous orbit to perform servicing tasks.

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And some good news for geeks; at least some of us:

Florida Senate approves making coding a foreign language (USA Today)

Madison Iszler, USA TODAY 3:07 p.m. EST March 1, 2016

Florida senators approved a bill allowing high school students to take computer coding classes in place of foreign language requirements.

The bill (SB 468), introduced by Sen. Jeremy Ring’s (D-Parkland), won by a 35-5 vote. It will take effect during the 2018-19 school year. Technological skills are a necessity “for every industry,” Ring told USA TODAY.

“It’s ahead of its time, but in reality, it’s in its time,” Ring said. “If you don’t have an understanding of technology, you will be left behind. It’s a basic skill, as much as reading and writing.”

Local groups are not pleased. The NAACP’s Florida Conference and Miami-Dade branch, the Florida chapter of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) and the Spanish American League Against Discrimination (SALAD) released a joint statement disputing the bill, reports The Tampa Bay Times.

“Our children need skills in both technology and in foreign languages to compete in today’s global economy,” the statement reads. “However, to define coding and computer science as a foreign language is a misleading and mischievous misnomer that deceives our students, jeopardizes their eligibility to admission to universities, and will result in many losing out on the foreign language skills they desperately need even for entry-level jobs in South Florida.”

Under the bill, which has undergone several revisions, high schools may offer students the opportunity to take computer coding courses. Originally, the bill said that high schools “must” allow students to do so. [snip]

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‘NOAA’s best data shows no warming for 60 years.’

<http://realclimatescience.com/2016/03/noaa-radiosonde-data-shows-no-warming-for-58-years/>

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Roland Dobbins

Yet one more data point. I am sure it has warmed since the times the Hudson froze over hard enough to walk on, and there were market stalls on the Thames ice; beyond that I’m not so sure. It seems to be warming, but I recall in the 70’s at AAAS meetings the news was full of The Genesis Strategy and other means of coping with the coming Ica Age.

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‘The influence of the CO2 warming theory built into computer models is so strong that the climate science establishment does not believe the data until the data has been manipulated to agree with the computer models.’

<http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/03/yet_another_hottest_year_on_record.html>

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Roland Dobbins

Yet one more instance; if the data do not fit the model, adjust the data.

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“We are saying there is incontrovertible evidence that Alzheimer’s Disease has a dormant microbial component. We can’t keep ignoring all of the evidence.”

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/12188092/Alzheimers-disease-could-be-caused-by-herpes-virus-warn-experts.html>

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Roland Dobbins

But surely we can; it is becoming increasingly common to ignore evidence. Excuse my cynicism.

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What could go wrong?

China Is About to Get Even Better at Predicting Dissent

 

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China Is About to Get Even Better at Predicting Dissent

Turns out, “Minority Report” should have been set in Beijing.

 

View on www.defenseone.com

Preview by Yahoo

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Is “Common Core” rotten…to the core?

http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/education/item/17809-common-core-architect-now-dumbing-down-sat

“In addition to dumbing down the important [SAT] test, one of two main standardized exams generally used by colleges for admissions, analysts say the revisions will play a key role in imposing Common Core on all American students — even children who are homeschooled, private-schooled, or in states that have officially resisted the widely criticized national standards.”

“Among the biggest changes are the removal of the essay requirement and an end to penalties for incorrect answers aimed at discouraging guessing. Also sparking alarm among experts concerned about the ongoing dumbing down of American education is the fact that the SAT will be drastically scaling back and simplifying the vocabulary and math requirements.”

Charles Brumbelow=

And they need know no history other than we once had slavery.

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Mysterious repeating signals arriving from deep space

(NEWSER) – Researchers just announced the discovery of radio signals from beyond our galaxy that are behaving in strange ways. Fast radio bursts—or FRBs—are very rare, very quick blasts of radio waves originating billions of light years away, Popular Science explains. It’s unclear where exactly in the universe they’re coming from and what’s causing them. Since the first one was discovered in 2007, scientists have found only 17 total, and none of them ever repeat, the Verge reports. At least that’s what everyone thought. According to a paper published this week in Nature, researchers at Cornell University have found evidence of FRBs that do just that.

Scientists used to think FRBs were caused by “cataclysmic events,” such as neutron stars colliding with each other and exploding. Repeating FRBs means that can’t be the case. “This research shows for the first time that there can be multiple FRBs from the same place in the sky,” researcher Shami Chatterjee says in a press release. “Whatever produces the FRB can’t be destroyed by the burst, because otherwise, what would produce the next pulse?” And the mystery deepens: “We’re showing that whatever battery drives FRBs, it can recharge in minutes,” astronomy professor James Cordes says. “The energy of the event becomes very problematic.” Researchers hope to next pinpoint where the FRBs are coming from in order to figure out what they’re coming from, and they’ll be helped by three massive radio telescopes that start operating next year. (Speaking of space mysteries: “Alien megastructures” have scientists baffled.)

But see what’s next. Aliens among us? See Freefall http://freefall.purrsia.com/default.htm

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Octowow

This is interesting news:

<.>

A scientific study has revealed that the DNA make up of octopuses is nothing like any other living being on the planet Earth, hinting that they are more alien than Earthly.

Octopuses are present in all of the Earth’s oceans, and have shown a great sustainability among the other aquatic life that share the seas.

Their large brains and ability to solve complex problems with little observation have mystified researchers for years, coercing wonder of their true intelligence and cognitive abilities. The reveal of their DNA has researchers wondering more about the tentacled creatures, their origins, and why they are unlike any other animals on the planet.

It was found that the genome of the cephalopod mollusc, according to the Huffington post, is quite complex. Over 33,000 protein-coding genomes were discovered during recent research. In comparison, humans have approximate 20,000. Although the information is intriguing and will lead to further research, the findings have created more questions than answers.

</>

http://www.inquisitr.com/2336412/scientists-claim-octopuses-are-aliens-dna-study-finds-they-are-unlike-any-other-living-being-on-earth/

So, it may be the alien invasion began a long time ago? All I can say

is: Ia ia, Cthulu ftaghn; ph’nglui mglw’nafh Cthulhu R’lyeh wgah’nagl fhtagn. The seas are churning….

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

This is the first I have heard of this; informed comments welcome.

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Want that Apple II experience? Now you can run over 500 rare 1980s programs in your browser (ZD)

A group of hackers skilled at breaking Apple II copy-protection schemes is helping save old education and productivity software.

By Liam Tung | March 8, 2016 — 14:21 GMT (06:21 PST) |

After creating a living museum for ancient Windows games, apps, and malware, the Internet Archive has reached a new milestone in its Apple-related preservation efforts, now hosting a rare collection over 500 Apple II programs from the 1980s and 1990s.

The 500-plus set of programs have been supplied to the Internet Archive by a group of hackers known as 4am, which aim to crack rare Apple II programs and preserve them as closely as possible in their original form minus copy protections.

The group hosts cracked games on the Internet Archive, which through an emulation program allows people interact with the programs through a modern browser.

The 4am-cracked programs are a subset of the Internet Archive’s much larger Apple II software library. But as archivist Jason Scott explained in a blogpost, the 4am collection plays a special role in balancing out a library that is skewed towards popular arcade games.

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http://www.attitudellc.org/ibms-automated-radiologist-can-read-images-and-medical-records/?utm_content=buffer91531&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

IBM’s Automated Radiologist Can Read Images and Medical Records

HomeBig Data and Analytics › IBM’s Automated Radiologist Can Read Images and Medical Records

I have been optimistic about the potential for voice recognition for many years. In my 2001 book, Net Attitude: What It Is, How to Get It, and Why Your Company Can’t Survive Without It, I discussed the ability to translate languages. Adoption was slow for a decade, but is now accelerating with Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri, Google Now, Microsoft Cortana, and the Skype Translator. Listening to a voice and converting it to meaningful text is one of many forms of artificial intelligence. IBM Research has developed another form of AI called Avicenna. The Avicenna software can read medical images, structured data, and electronic health records. The result is a productivity boost for radiologists. [snip]

And the robots get better and better…

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“You can’t really get caught up in the cartoon because it’s a serious business.”

<http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-pursuit-in-mystery-machine-scooby-doo-20160307-story.html>

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Roland Dobbins

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Defense Secretary Takes Position Against a Data ‘Back Door’     (nyt)

By NICOLE PERLROTHMARCH 2, 2016 

SAN FRANCISCO — Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter assured an audience of computer security experts Wednesday that he was not in favor of a “back door” that would give the government access to data that is protected by encryption.

Speaking at the annual RSA Conference, Secretary Carter sought common ground with companies worried by Apple’s fight with the Federal Bureau of Investigation over access to an iPhone.

“Just to cut to the chase, I’m not a believer in back doors or a single technical approach,” Secretary Carter said to loud applause during a panel discussion at the conference. “I don’t think it’s realistic. I don’t think that’s technically accurate.”

Apple is resisting a court order that would require it to create software to break the password mechanism in an iPhone used by one of the assailants in the December mass shooting in San Bernardino, Calif. [snip]

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She Had an Abortion at 15. How It Changed Her Life.

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After a free pregnancy test came back positive, showing that then-15-year-old Nona Ellington was five weeks pregnant, she went forward and scheduled an abortion.

Read More

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‘Who really owns a Tesla? Not the title holder, that’s for sure.’

<http://syonyk.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-tesla-building-throwaway-cars.html>

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Roland Dobbins

I find that interesting…

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: NHS to harvest babies’ organs in proposals to mums pregnant with damaged babies | Daily Mail Online

Jerry:

Niven might recognize the similarities to his organ banks.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3478477/NHS-harvest-babies-organs-Bombshell-new-proposal-mums-pregnant-damaged-babies.html

As long as the possible organ recipients are limited to infants, demand will be limited. What happens if fetal tissues can be used to treat life threatening illnesses in adults? Will the government run healthcare system start exaggerated the alleged fetal defects or even lie to expectant mothers so that their babies can be harvested? Will a certain quota become mandatory? Will aging voters mandate that access to contraception be regulated to ensure an adequate supply of spare parts to extend their lives?

James Crawford=

Indeed. In unrestrained capitalist societies you will find human flesh for sale in the market; in other, it will be a government monopoly.

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‘Were there sympathetic pre-board screeners in Boston and New York who ignored the X-ray images of weapons on September 11?’

<http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/03/so_you_want_to_privatize_the_tsa.html>

I don’t agree with the main thrust of this article, but it poses an interesting question, nonetheless.

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Roland Dobbins

I think box cutters were not forbidden prior to 9/11.

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A famous IBM employee took her baby to an IBM conference and had to deal with a smart aleck

Lisa Seacat DeLucaIBM super inventor Lisa Seacat DeLuca.

Lisa Seacat DeLuca is among the best-known women who work for IBM.

She’s a mobile software engineer and one of the company’s most prolific master inventors. She has close to 400 patents and patent applications under her belt as part of IBM’s massive patent-creation machine.

She’s often on the speaker circuit, including a TED talk she gave a few years back.

She’s also a new mom.

So on the last day of the IBM Connect Now conference, the ghost day when most people have cleared out, DeLuca married her two passions together. She loaded her 5-month-old daughter into a baby carrier and went to the conference.

While she was there, a man in his late 50s approached her to berate her for bringing her baby to a professional conference, she told Business Insider. He told her that having her baby there was a “security issue,” reports fellow IBMer Anna Seacat, who was so annoyed about the incident that she wrote a LinkedIn post about it. (Both women reached out and shared the story with me, too.)

DeLuca did some sleuthing and discovered that the man was an IBM contract employee.

Lisa Seacat DeLucaDeLuca and Emily.

Yes, the man’s comments were rude and out of line. And it was annoying that he somehow felt compelled (and entitled) to share his unsolicited opinion with a stranger.

But what I liked about this story is this: DeLuca describes herself as #motherworking not a #workingmother.

“I’m a mom first, a technologist second, #motherworking not #workingmother #lifeisshort,” she wrote on an Instagram post that featured a picture of her daughter.

But the question I have is, who says you have to rank the different parts of yourself like that? A cranky older man without the grace to keep his sarcasm to himself?

Whether you’re a mother or a father, you can be a professional, a hard worker, and lots of other things — a cook, a maker, a student, a sibling, a spouse …

Or to put it another way: If the world really has to choose between procreation and work — and if work is supposed to win — then the human experience wouldn’t be long for this world, would it?

So bring your kids to work sometimes, just as you bring your work home. And if someone feels the need to tell you you’re wrong, smile and tell the person, “Life is short.”

I liked this story.

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I am Iron Man: That’s how these augmented reality goggles feel (USA Today)

A Silicon Valley augmented reality company called Meta, whose Meta 2 AR glasses go on pre-order this week, gives users the feeling that they’re superheroes able to manipulate holographic images with a simple hand gesture. Martin E. Klimek, USA TODAY

Marco della Cava, USA TODAY 10:17 a.m. EST March 2, 2016

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – I am Iron Man. At least for a few minutes here inside a small conference room at the headquarters of augmented reality company Meta.

With virtual reality goggles, you dive into worlds while blacked out from reality. With the clear-lensed Meta 2 headset, I am able to simultaneously see my host for this demo, Meta founder Meron Gribetz, as well as a range of hovering holographic images that are projected downward from the top of the device.

There’s a wide flat screen TV. A three-foot-high globe. A see-through human body. And even a Meta employee from down the hall who is rendered in three dimensions for a brief video chat.

But the real showstopper – the moment when the promise of augmented reality, AR, comes into sharp focus against the ongoing VR buzz – is when Gribetz tells me to reach my hand out and point an index finger at the translucent human figure floating in my field of view.

“When it appears to light up, make a fist and move your arm to the right,” he says.

When I do so, the body suddenly splits into four different images lined up one by one, each showcasing a different aspect of the anatomy. If I want to layer them back on top of each other, I simply reach out, make a fist, and move the image. Robert Downey, Jr., does the same action in Iron Man, only he’s not wearing glasses.

Although this aspect of the Meta 2 demo wasn’t operational during our visit, Gribetz says at a recent TED Talk demo in Vancouver he demonstrated how two Meta 2 wearers can pass a hologram between each other. This sales pitch is aimed at architects and other designers, who can use AR to jointly work on a virtual project as technology gets rid of physical models.

“Eventually, we’ll all be wearing a very light and inconspicuous strip of clear glass across our eyes,” says Gribetz, who has been working on his AR vision for the past six years, a passion he shares with those working on rival AR projects at companies such as ODG, Epson and Microsoft. “The goal is to make the operating system completely intuitive, and to replace computers.”

That’s where the Meta 2’s gesture control comes in. In another demo, I’m presented with nearly a dozen TV monitors in my wide field of view, stacked two high. By reaching out and “grabbing” one, I’m able to move it into a different position, much like one might move apps on a smartphone screen.

And you can interact with the screens, too. Gribetz hands me a physical keyboard, which I can see through the Meta 2 lens. I start to type a message and it appears on the computer screen in my line of sight, which of course isn’t really there.

AR BANISHES CLAUSTROPHOBIA

A particularly powerful aspect of Meta 2 is the fact that the images it presents remain anchored in space, which allows me to walk around them and enhances the sense that I’m really in front of a solid object and not just a hologram. This has the added effect of banishing the somewhat disoriented woozy feeling that can accompany heavy VR use.

Ultimately, what’s truly significant here is that – thanks to both a lightweight form factor and the see-through visor – AR provides a liberating sensation that contrasts with VR’s often claustrophobic feeling.

I’ve hiked across Everest ice fields and retreated from angry dinosaurs in VR thanks to the magic of Oculus Rift and HTC Vive, products that are coming this year. But in each instance the experience was compromised by my mind never forgetting that I was in a real room and by my worrying about bumping into walls. By keeping us rooted in the real world, AR makes its mixed reality universe all the more inviting.

Meta 2 rolls out to developers soon priced at under $1,000 (you provide the computer to power it). There already are a range of enterprise customers for Meta’s wares, ranging from Nike to Airbus, and it will be a while before the average consumer will be living with AR on a daily basis.

But what Meta 2 clearly demonstrates is that the outsized predictions about augmented reality – it will account for 75% of a $150 billion AR/VR market by 2020, according to Digi-Capital – aren’t just justified, they’re as realistic as AR’s holograms are illusory.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Trump and other matters of importance

Chaos Manor View, Friday, March 04, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

Under Capitalism, the rich become powerful. Under Socialism, the powerful become rich.

Under Socialism, government employees become powerful.

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The week has been devoured by locusts and time consuming misfortunes; a series of unfortunate events. The last one was caused by my own stupidity: I had written several hundred words for this, rather painfully as I am typing with two fingers, staring at the keyboard, and whenever I look up at the screen it is covered with words underlined in wavy red, even though I have taught autocorrect to handle most of my most common errors (mostly caused by hitting two keys at once). Then, when I was trying to research some numbers, I kept getting popups from some malware that snuck in somehow and kept making me offers to clean up my machine. I found one program among those in control panel that I have not installed, and don’t want, but apparently simply removing it wasn’t enough. I ran Malwarebytes Anti-Malware, which my advisors assure me is safe if not complete, and lo! it found 37 questionable files, a dozen of them malware.

I ran them, and of course it wanted to reset, which I did, forgetting that I had an unsaved Windows file; and for the first time in years, Windows simply shut down, the system reset, and while the template I used to set the file up was saved, none of the hour and a half’s work I had done was saved. Anywhere. Word has never done that to me before.

So here I am, recreating it. And yes. I know Word is supposed to save everything, or at least a draft. It didn’t.

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We have had Super Tuesday and another debate. The Republican National Committee has taken our money to launch Mitt Romney in a fiery speech denouncing Trump, as if any Trump supporter would listen to, heed, or be influenced by anything the man they stayed home thus electing Obama said. Of all people to appeal to reason they chose perhaps the least effective; and they wonder why a third – actually two thirds – of the Party do not care to be led where they think they are leading us.

In the debate Cruz, whose supporters have no great love for the country club establishment Republican elites, attacked Trump repeatedly. It is curious to speculate why. He is not likely to get Trump out of the race, and unless Trump endorses him he has lost about a third of the Party base, plus a lot of Reagan Democrats.

At least all four have now said they would support the nominee no mater which of them it will be. That’s better than in 1968 when the country club Republican elite cut the ticket and repudiated Goldwater, thus giving us Lyndon Johnson, The Great Society, and a boatload of entitlements to throttle the economy. For Romney to tell us that Trump’s no conservative is about as interesting as for the neocons to tell us that.

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Fred

http://fredoneverything.org/reviving-napoleons-army-cry-havoc-and-let-slip-the-frogs-of-yore/

Fred has salient points here – and states the obvious in more words than this: “We go into new wars fighting the old wars.”  IOW – we don’t learn.  (well he goes even further – we’re too stupid to learn).

But he’s wrong in his basic premise that we conduct war stupidly because we can’t predict the course, or the outcome.   He, like many military ‘genius’ minds neglect to account for the greatest variable on the battlefield (or, even the football field!) – the enemy (other team!) has a say in the course/outcome.  Combine that with true screw-ups and/or brilliant strokes and/or just plain good/bad dumb luck, you can see that predictions are for guidance only, or for calculated risks – certainly not absolutes.  As the old saw goes, no plan survives the first shot.  If anyone could really get the enemy to play to the plan, THAT would be a story! 

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellence;  Avoider of Yard Work

It was von Moltke the Elder, creator of the German Great General Staff, who said “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.” Of course sometimes that doesn’t matter. As General Forrest said in the Civil War, “You get there firstest with the mostest” and you win battles. That’s hardly the only way. Of course, but sometimes the enemy can be overwhelmed.

The necessity for a General Staff came as the industrial revolution overwhelmed to capabilities of military commanders. Napoleon won nearly all his battles, but no one on his staff was his equal; war had become more complex than a single human mind could comprehend. A few writers pretended it was otherwise, as Gordon R. Dickson did in his “Tactics of Mistake,” but that was fiction and like all fiction need only be plausible: appear to be real, but the author controls all the events. In the real world of battle, the enemy gets a vote, as Fred points out.

Of course in the real world, after many mistakes, the United States won: t he Viet Cong was eliminated in South Viet Nam. North Viet Nam continued to build up its forces, and in 1972 sent 150,000 men with as many tanks as the Wehrmacht had in taking France in 1940. The United States honored our alliance, US air and naval forces supported the Army of the Republic of Viet Nam, and the armored corps the North sent down in invasion was utterly defeated; of the 150,000 sent south, fewer than 50,000 managed to return home to the North. The cost in US casualties was under a thousand in a battle that was as large as any we were involved in in Italy in World War II. It was in fact a great victory.

The United States was not defeated in Viet Nam because after 1972 came Watergate, and when in 1975 North Viet Nam, resupplied at some cost by its Soviet allies, sent a similar sized armored army south against a South Viet Nam that was never equipped to fight it without logistic support from its “ally”, the United States of America. Congress, however, had had enough of Nixon’s war and voted 20 cartridges and two hand grenades per man for South Viet Nam; and forbade air and naval support. Effectively abandoned by its ally, Viet Nam accordingly fell to invasion from the North; but the United States military had not lost because we were never engaged. That “war” was lost in Berkeley California and at Kent State, and in the halls of Congress.

For geopolitical reasons, North Viet Nam was allowed to build up and deploy two armored armies; we could see them coming but we did nothing about it. That was not a military decision, just as it was not a military decision to lose as many pilots over Viet Nam as we did in fact lose. You do not win air supremacy by shooting down the enemy’s planes over his own territory. That is like ridding yourself of a swarm of hornets by swatting them one hornet at a time. It doesn’t work, as Reichsmarschal Herman Goering discovered in the Battle of Britain. North Viet Nam had three air bases capable of supporting MIGs; McNamara would never give us permission to attack all three bases at once. I do not know his motives, but that cost lives, and he knew it.

I was once in a three way debate with Allard Lowenstein and McGeorge Bundy. Lowenstein turned to me and said “Jerry, you want to win it and get out.” I nodded agreement. “And I just want to get out. Your government wants to lose it and stay in.” It was one of the few times in my life that I was stunned into silence. He was right, of course.

But I do not think it was the generals and the strategists who lost Viet Nam. It was the political leadership of the United States who dribbled away blood and treasure, never doing enough to win , but sending in more and more.

If you voluntarily commit your soldiers to battle, there must be a desired outcome: some condition of victory. You cannot simply send them in and hope for the best. You must know what you want That is a political decision. It should not be made by the military, and under the Constitution it must not be.

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Regarding Codevilla’s essay and your comments:

We have the ability to go into Sunni-stan (as he calls it) and break up the Caliphate. A substantial number of the enemy will be killed, the rest will disperse into the civilian population and wait for us to leave. Then what? You suggest that we have feasible alternatives to deal with the captured territory. We effectively have already tried giving it to Shia-stan, which clearly didn’t work. The possibility of creating a Western friendly Sunni strongman seems remote, given the history outlined by Codevilla. So I have to assume you think we could make an alliance with the Kurds? But how do we know that won’t eventually backfire on us?
With regard to the Kurds, I found this essay interesting:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n05/patrick-cockburn/end-times-for-the-caliphate

Craig

You need to understand that ISIS is unique among our enemies in that they have to have sovereign territory to govern to have any claim to be the caliphate, otherwise they are an insurgent group indistinguishable from others that have existed a long time.

Part of their territory can be given to its inhabitants with a fair degree of  safety; part to the Kurds, some to Jordan.  There are other solutions after they are conquered.  They have declared war on us, and are getting stronger.  Ignoring them will not make them go away.

Incidentally, both Sunni and Shia say of the Kurds, “They are Moslems compared to infidels…”

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

I get the part about a Caliphate needing to hold territory to have any legitimacy.   Codevilla’s essay was about the futility of trying to rely on others in the region to destroy that Caliphate for us.   So… why is it any less misguided to think we can rely on those same players to preserve order (once restored by our troops), and prevent the resurgence of ISIS, or something similar, after we withdraw?

Craig

Destroying the Caliphate is the mission. We leave it to those who live in the Middle East to restore order. We are not nation builders.

bubbles

Zero-gravity Cat

Jerry,

On page 64 of these rare historical pictures, there is a photo of the zero-gravity cat experiment you have mentioned before.
http://dailybananas.com/5_d_rare_photos_of_history_us_db_1/64/

Reactionless Feline Drive in action?

Best wishes to you and Roberta.

Respectfully,

-Tom B.

Sigh. Yes, we did that once at Brooks as I recall. I think there was some MacAllister involved.

bubbles

Obama: The Lamest Duck

From a friend…

Always like Victor Davis Hanson:
http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/?p=9102#more-9102

If all cultures are equal, why do they hate our culture?

bubbles

There’s a new way to hijack drones in mid-flight

Researchers have found a new way to hijack some police drones, as first reported by Wired. The attack was developed by researcher Nils Rodday, currently employed by IBM, who will present his findings at the RSA conference this week. By exploiting vulnerabilities in a drone’s telemetry system, Rodday was able to assume control and block out communications from the owner, an attack with potentially broad implications for drones everywhere.

Rodday’s research focuses on a specific model of drone used by police, which he declines to name, but the broader vulnerability may be much more difficult to fix. The attack focuses on the protocol connecting the drone to its controller, which is often left unsecured to ensure that commands reach the drone as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, that also means that with the right set of signals, attackers can masquerade as the drone’s owner and take control of the craft. There are a number of established ways to protect against that attack, but it would require rewriting the drone’s wireless protocols, either adding latency or additional hardware to handle the more complex requests.

As drones have grown more popular, there are an increasing number of researchers and companies looking at ways to take them down, occasionally for public safety reasons. Companies like Selex and Batelle are already marketing products to law enforcement officers that would take down potentially threatening drones that stray too close to airports or prisons, although the use of such devices still occupies a legal gray area. Open vulnerabilities are rarely consistent across different models, while broader spectrum jamming violates FCC regulations, often leaving responders with few options for bringing down a drone without endangering public safety.

bubbles

http://www.zdnet.com/article/these-microscopic-robots-swim-in-blood-to-diagnose-disease/

These microscopic robots swim in blood to diagnose disease

Fifty years after Raquel Welch to her Fantastic Voyage, nanomachines are a reality.

By Greg Nichols for Robotics | March 3, 2016 — 11:25 GMT (03:25 PST) |

Picture a robot. You’re probably envisioning something fairly substantial that goes beep boop bop. But a lot of early work is being done on nanomachines–robots so tiny they might not be visible to the naked eye.

Researchers at Brock University in Ontario, Canada, recently published positive results after building a robot out of a 20-nanometer gold particle. Short and long strands of DNA attached to the particle form the functional mechanism of their little machine, which is designed to detect diseases in a blood sample.

The long DNA strands contain the genetic sequences of whatever disease the bot is testing for. The short strands carry fluorescent signal reporters. If biomarkers for the disease are present in a blood sample, the machine “switches on.”

When activated, the bot is designed to use its long DNA strands to cut the short DNA strands, activating fluorescent signals. The result is a glowing bot, which indicates a positive result.It’s that process, which happens autonomously, that makes these little specks true robots.

Theoretical physicist Richard Feynman was one of the first to postulate about manmade molecular machines way back in the 1950s. But the technology to make those devices a reality is only now within reach of advanced labs.

[snip]

bubbles

‘All it took was the biggest publishing companies in the world deliberately murdering their own share of the market. And it wasn’t even true.’

<http://genedoucette.me/2016/02/the-collective-madness-of-the-publishing-industry/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

bubbles

: CCP: The Party is Over

Isn’t one of the platforms of communism giving everyone a job? Or does everyone already have a job when they take over during “The Revolution”? But, even so, while using the “socialist road” to get to “communism”, won’t babies be born? How will they get jobs? If nothing else, should a communist government, run by “workers”, be able to provide jobs for it’s people?

While we all know China has not really been “communist” for some time

— I personally saw the special economic zones during my travels in China — I found this news beyond interesting:

<.>

China aims to lay off 5-6 million state workers over the next two to three years as part of efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and pollution, two reliable sources said, Beijing’s boldest retrenchment program in almost two decades.

China’s leadership, obsessed with maintaining stability and making sure redundancies do not lead to unrest, will spend nearly 150 billion yuan ($23 billion) to cover layoffs in just the coal and steel sectors in the next 2-3 years.

The overall figure is likely to rise as closures spread to other industries and even more funding will be required to handle the debt left behind by “zombie” state firms.

The term refers to companies that have shut down some of their operations but keep staff on their rolls since local governments are worried about the social and economic impact of bankruptcies and unemployment.

</>

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-layoffs-exclusive-idUSKCN0W33DS

So, the CCP cannot or will not continue paying workers without purpose to not revolt against the party. Now, what does this mean?

This does not look good. It’s “only” 5-6 million. Which, in Chinese terms, isn’t that much and these may be spread across a wide area.

I’d need to look deeper into the statistical distributions and the cohorts involved to say anything with certainty. However, a few general hypotheses are possible:

1. It could mean the CCP believes it’s losing its grip; they’re out of money and have no choice but to institute a controlled crisis; here comes the pain. This could put the CCP in a position where their heads are on the table or they start a war.

2. It could mean the CCP is confident it its ability to quell unrest and no longer feels that it needs — or will need — to pay potential malcontents. This could include blaming someone else for their policies — guess who?

3. It could mean that we have complete confusion and panic and the CCP is not sure if they’re losing their grip or if they have the strength to deal with social unrest. In this situation, anything can happen and the worst of it — for us — was already listed in points one and two.

I think we’re looking at an acceleration of a powerful index of factors I’ve been following for some time. I wrote a country analysis report on China and I don’t have time to get into, or even summarize, the points here and you wouldn’t need or want to bother with all that data anyway.

But, my previous analysis revealed the CCP will either collapse or find a way to compete internationally in such a way its population is distracted and the collapse is forestalled. That competition can come in many aspects, but war seems a likely manifestation. War with whom?

Well, the Chinese generals threaten to nuke us pre-emptively every so often, as do the Russians. It’s worth considering.

However, the CCP has shown canny ability to move at the right speed.

The “right” speed is important. It is necessary not to go at the speed you think you should go, not to go at the speed others want you to go, but to go “at the speed of man”. China is able to do that.

While these indicators and hypotheses are sound, proper handling of the conditions will cause those hypotheses to shift.

Chinese leadership can avoid war and they can avoid losing their heads, but it gets harder with each day. However, we can take hope that CCP leadership is aware of the problem and working toward a solution. The CCP is preferable to war and it is also preferable to a Chinese civil war. Though I think we all know which better suits us.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

bubbles

A disturbing corollary to Pournelle’s Law of Computer Troubleshooting.

<http://www.cnet.com/news/usb-type-c-cable-problems/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Good old Obama doesn’t stop does he?

<.>

The White House is quietly pushing for an increase in refugees from Syria, despite new concerns raised by state and county officials that federal help is often missing when they arrive.

</>

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/white-house-wants-increase-of-syrian-refugees/article/2584498

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

bubbles

bubbles

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

bubbles

clip_image002

bubbles