January 2015 – Page 3 – Chaos Manor

Mail: Climate, solidarity, humor, etc.

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 19, 2015 - 12:03 pm | Updated: January 19, 2015 - 1:21 pm | Mail

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Mail at Chaos Manor Friday, January 16, 2015

Monday, January 19, 2015

Catching up. There is also a View today, Monday, January 19, 2015

There is a lot of Mail to catch up, and I will continue to add to the View. Apologies for the disorganization , I am trying to regularize but I can’t do it myself, and my long suffering friends have their own lives… But do see View today as well

We begin with the “hottest year ever” absurdity. How does anyone know? We are talking about tenths of a degree F, over centuries. From all the historical records it was warmer in the Northern hemisphere in the Viking time, but of course we don’t KNOW, nor do we know how much warmer – or cooler — it was then. But it is absurd to say we know the average temperature of the Earth in 1900. Ocean temperatures then were taken with a bucket and a mercury thermometer and were no more than 1 degree of accuracy if that. Remember when we were young with mercury thermometers under the tongue? No one worried about tenths of a degree. It would be pointless. Even in space program days with anal probe thermisters which we calibrated daily we could be sure of 1 degree accuracy, and this of body temperature of a single subject. So now suddenly it is warmer on all Earth than it was in dust bowl times – and we know with certainty. I don’t believe that.

Local news reported that 2014 was the hottest on record, surpassing the previous records in 2005 and 2010, going back over a century for the previous record.

I find that interesting in light of the fact that we have been in that temperature plateau for the last 17 years, which would take us back to 1998. Also interesting is the fact that Dr. Spencer shows that 1998 had a far higher spike than the one in 2010, both of which were due to El Nino events, and there isn’t anything recognizable as a spike in 2005:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/uah_march2011.png

(overall page here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/05/global-temperature-still-headed-down-uah-negative-territory/)

It’s also interesting that I can’t find the article/report on the local news’ website in order to grab the much earlier year. USA Today however has it here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/01/16/record-warm-year-climate-change/21857061/

Pertinent quote: "The global temperature from 2014 broke the previous record warmest years of 2005 and 2010 since record-keeping began in 1880."

It is interesting to note that 1880 was still in the "wall" of the Little Ice Age; it is highly unlikely to have been any sort of record itself. It is entirely probable that the observed warming trend from the time records were kept in 1880 — and there is one, for about the first half to two-thirds of the 20th century — is simply the normal, expected rebound from the Little Ice Age.

Given the back to back series of extended solar minima that ran throughout the Little Ice Age, especially if combined with some of the large volcanic eruptions that took place during the time frame, it seems very probable that those comprise the explanation of the deviation, and that the current combo of solar inactivity and volcanic activity likely comprise the explanation of the current plateau.

Stephanie

Stephanie has the credentials to question with authority..

What bothers me is the assurance these people pretend. Most of these modelers have never actually taken a real temperature, do not seem to know the difference between globe and air temperature. Perhaps satellite temps are as accurate and reliable as said, but how do they know? It takes theory to know what numbers to average, and many are not regular so they average guess in with data. It sure does not look warmer in DC just now, and satellites show lots of ice at both poles.

Jerry,

The general public ‘science’ article published by the Inquisitor about the disappearing pulsar drew upon another general public science article published by Popular Science. The Popular Science interpretations of the science were quite liberally reinterpreted by the Inquisitor.

Nothing unusual happened to pulsar J1906. It is NOT beaming its signal somewhere else in time, just somewhere else in space. We detect pulsars as pulsars because spinning neutron stars that are accreting mass from another object produce jets at points perpendicular to the accretion disk, a plane determined by the neutron star’s magnetic field, not by its spin axis. Just like on the Earth, the magnetic poles on a neutron star seldom align with the spin axis of the neutron star, so as the neutron star rotates (at up to 30 times per second), the jets emitted at the poles are swept though space like a lighthouse. If those jets happen to illuminate the Earth, we detect them as pulsars. We can only detect pulsars that happen to aim at the Earth at some point in their rotation. Most pulsars never do, so we do not detect them, though we can estimate their number given the number of pulsars we have found.

Precession happens to any spinning object whose rotation axis is not vertical. As children, we see this as the wobble of our toy tops when we nudge them away from vertical while they spin. Newton provided a means of predicting the rate of precession for our toy tops, so we call this Newtonian precession. When you get up to objects of significant mass, such as the Earth, scientists like to differentiate the precession of these objects by calling it geodetic precession (see http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/geodetic/). While it is difficult to define ‘vertical’ in open space, a rotating mass produces a bulge at its equator, making it wider and more massive around its equator than it is around its poles. The Earth has this issue. The gravitational influences of the Moon and the Sun would like to keep that bulge at the Earth’s equator in the plane of the Moon’s orbit around the Earth and in the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The two are not coincident, so they are each pulling on the Earth’s bulge in different directions at different times. Also, the Earth’s spin axis is tilted 26 degrees to it solar orbital plane, likely by a large impact over 4 billion years ago. All of this leads the Earth to have an approximately 26,000 year precession. If we beamed a laser straight up in the sky from the North spin pole, it would strike the star we currently call Polaris. A few thousand years now, it will strike a different star. At some point in the time between, any observers watching Earth from Polaris will see our laser beam wink out. Disappear. Did the Earth just vanish? No. Did our laser beam go somewhere else in time? No.

What is complicating the Inquisitor interpretation is a misunderstanding of geodetic precision. Scientists make this distinction because large rotating masses alter their precession rates in a significant way due to the effects of gravity. In 1916, W. de Sitter used general relativity to predict that when a mass rotates, it actually rotates the spacetime around it as well. Think of it as a twisting effect, as would happen if you spun a bowling ball on a rubber sheet. This is called frame dragging. If a spinning mass is precessing, then frame dragging will have an effect on the rate of precession. It will not, though, allow the rotating object to send signals to other times.

What was observed with pulsar J1906 was geodetic precession shifting the axis of rotation away from the Earth, thus rendering the pulsar undetectable. While it may be the first time we have observed a pulsar doing this, it is not going to re-write the physics text books. Even without the effects of general relativity, this pulsar, and ALL of the other pulsars we currently observe, will eventually become undetectable as pulsars from the Earth as precession moves their rotation axes. Geodetic precession just predicts the when of this better than Newtonian precession. According to the Popular Science article, geodetic precession predicts that pulsar J1906 will be observable as a pulsar from the Earth again in just 160 years.

Which ought to settle that…

It’s Alive !

Dear Jerry:

Delighted to see you back on the air !

Here, to speed your physiotherapy, is evidence of a major advance on muscle building, from researches at Duke:

http://youtu.be/EQJ-K7s4LgA

Best regards

—

Russell Seitz

Fellow of the Department of Physics Harvard University

Eric Holder does something right, for once.

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/holder-ends-seized-asset-sharing-process-that-split-billions-with-local-state-police/2015/01/16/0e7ca058-99d4-11e4-bcfb-059ec7a93ddc_story.html>

—

Roland Dobbins

Movie Predestination

Someone made a movie out of Heinlein’s “All You Zombies” called Predestination. I just downloaded it off iTunes. I’ll keep my fingers crossed. After “The Puppet Masters”, I’m not sure what to expect.

Glad you are home by the way. Just be patient. The brain is a truly amazing thing.

Phil Tharp

But patience is a virtue hard to keep when a hundred trivial things go wrong and you can’t just get up and fix them.

I do not expect Hollywood to do well with Heinlein

The clarity of Philosophy,

Clarity of Philosophy

The Great Lao-Tzu said:

"It is only when you see a mosquito

landing on your testicles that you realize

there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”

Ed

Subj: Rush

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/01/15/liberal_foreign_policy_intellectuals_flip_on_obama_over_paris_episode

Pull quotes from today’s show (12:30 ET segment)

"Anyway, Mr. (Roger) Simon continues to write and speculate about why Obama ultimately didn’t go (to the rally in Paris). And then he gets to this: "Is there a ‘sleeper cell’ in the White House? It would certainly explain Obama’s not going to France…. There are so many other things that the existence of a White House ‘sleeper cell’ would explain that I couldn’t even begin to count them. …But who would be a member of this cell? … You are …free to guess…

"Well, now it’s not me calling a Democrat president irrelevant, it is TheHill.com, which is part of State-Run Media. Jim Patterson is the writer’s name. "The utter failure of the Obama administration can be measures in so many ways, from the number of beheaded American journalists, to embarrassing heads of state by spying on German Chancellor Angela Merkle’s personal mobile phone, to callously calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a war hero, ‘chicken shit’ and a ‘coward.’

Leslie Gelb <http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/13/this-is-obama-s-last-foreign-policy-chance.html> is a foreign policy writer at the New York Times … "I’ve never proposed such a drastic overhaul" of the US foreign policy establishment. "But if you think hard about how Mr. Obama and his team handled this weekend in Paris, I think you’ll see I’m not enjoying a foreign policy neurological breakdown. …Valerie Jarrett doesn’t know what she’s doing. …It wasn’t just because President Obama’s or Vice President Biden’s absence was a horrendous gaffe. More than this, it demonstrated beyond argument that the Obama team lacks the basic instincts and judgment necessary to conduct US national security policy in the next two years. It’s simply too dangerous to let Mr. Obama continue as is … I have to tell you that I’ve never made such extreme and far-reaching proposals," and he goes on. His proposals are for Obama to get rid of everybody. Fire Valerie Jarrett. But not just that. He wants them replaced with Republicans…"

It is clear that Obama made a large blunder when he did not go or send Biden to the Paris arm in arm march

Jerry

Since you’re recovering, I thought you’d appreciate a little ‘physic:’

http://xkcd.com/1473/

Ed

Jerry

This delightful link:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/13/preserve_the_cocinnity_of_english_caterwauls_american_university/

led me to another, better link:

http://www.wordwarriors.wayne.edu/list.php

Save the language! Up the Word Warriors!

Ed

Subject: botnets via home router compromise

Today’s “Infosecurity” magazine contains an article on the most recent DDOS attack on some game servers. My son’s console was impacted. Turns out the DDOS was a result of a botnet (as usual) using home routers. “Factory-default usernames and passwords for home routers are once again the culprits behind two high-profile distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks on Sony and Microsoft’s gaming networks.” http://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/lizard-squad-botnet-home-routers/

Long story short: some home devices are installed with the default user names and passwords set to things like “user” and “password.” In fact, there are websites where you can find out default user names and passwords for popular devices. As in this from the Verizon support site:

“What are the default user name and password for my Verizon 9100EM router? What are the default user name and password for my Verizon 9100EM router? The default user name for the Verizon 9100EM router is "admin," and the default password is "password" (do not include the quotation marks).

* Note: To improve security, your router password may have been changed to the serial number of your Verizon 9100 router if you hadn’t previously changed the password from the default of "password." You can find your router’s serial number on the label affixed to the bottom or back of your router.

* If you reset your router to the factory default settings, the router password will return to "password."

The user name and password are both case-sensitive, so be sure to enter them in lower case.”

Busting into someone’s home network is easier said than done, but once in, having default user names and passwords is always bad. Be careful.

Robbed by his own robot…

Welcome back to your keyboard!

In a recent post you bashed our country’s practice of foreign aid. Everything you said was correct, and you might have continued at greater length. As usual, however, there are exceptions. The story of our Haiti-Micah Project is pretty heartwarming, and I think it is an exception. For starters, see

http://us3.campaign-archive2.com/?u=058e092696e2ad78259d7c602&id=f66db555d8&e=df2eb6d1b2

This foreign aid effort has been conducted by an association of US churches, with a helping hand from the US government. It started small and grew organically over a period of years. It has been closely managed by a small team which has obtained the cooperation of the local government. The point of mentioning the program here: Foreign aid can succeed if it is closely managed, if adequate time is available, and if the objective is to be helpful.

Robert

Weave put more than a billion cash into Haiti. Enough to get everyone out of poverty? Not hardly. So who got the money? Yes, churches and private organizations tend to be efficient – with money they raised. With tax money not always so.

"It may also be the case that the viruses’ more or less complex functions in various species can help us to understand why we are so different.”

<https://hacked.com/ancient-viruses-hacked-human-brains/>

<http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/do-viruses-make-us-smarter>

Roland Dobbins

Is this cheering news or frightening? I have put smart making bugs in stories.. See Beowulf’s Children

This is from the opening “letter” in The Adventures of Hajii Baba of Ispahan, by James Morier, 1st published 1824.

A distinct line must be drawn between ‘the nations who wear the hat and those who wear the beard’; and they must ever hold each other, stories as improbable, until a more general intercourse of common life takes place between them. What is moral and virtuous with the one, is wickedness with the other—that which the Christian reviles as abominable, is by the Mohamedan held sacred. Although the contrast between their respective manners may be very amusing, still it is most certain that the Christian will ever feel devoutly grateful that he is neither subject to Mohamedan rule, nor educated in Mohamedan principles; whilst the latter, in his turn looking upon the rest of mankind as unclean infidels, will continue to hold fast to his persuasion, until some powerful interposition of Providence shall dispel the moral and intellectual darkness which, at present, overhangs so Large a portion of the Asiatic world.

Mr. Morier is a historical figure (you can look him up in Wikipedia) who spent 1809 to 1819 in what was then Persia. He was born in Smyrna (the one in the Ottoman Empire) and grew up there, 1780 to 1808. So his observations are only a historical curiosity, of course.

Ed

Agatha Christie’s pre WW II Come Tell Me How You Live has good insights into Mesopotamia also

Walkers and energy: Catching Up

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 19, 2015 - 10:24 am | Updated: January 19, 2015 - 5:15 pm | View

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View from Chaos Manor, Friday, January 16, 2015

Monday, January 19, 2015

Friday: I am posting a stub to work on later. Larry Niven and Wendy All are to be here shortly. (Well they got here as I was writing that.)

Monday : They were here and we worked on an old children’s book we started a decade ago. The story is complete or very nearly so, but Wendy has been so busy designing toys for Mattel that she has not completed the illustration – Now she can, and we will soon have the book ready to publish. It is a fairy tale about intelligent moles who are just discovering science and the scientific method, which they can employ in their war against the semi intelligent Weasels. A bit fantastic (but fantasies are), but it’s a pretty good story, for 8 and above kids who are not thrilled by talking sponges…

Saturday and Sunday were devoured by locusts, exercises, the exhausting drama of getting to church where Roberta sings in the choir and I sit in one of the handicap seats. I go in with the walker, which I am getting pretty good with. There are steps down into the garage that have to be taken, but the Holy Cross rehab therapists built a model of the steps when I was out there. They used little platforms, and we worked out the procedures to negotiate a double step down through a narrow doorway – down is harder than up – and all is well. Walkers work, a bit better than canes, and I got used to a cane after the cancer therapy radiation in 2008 destroyed y balance. I have got about 80% of what balance I had before the stro9ke, and now the key will be to do enough of the right exercises to be strong enough to overcome balance problems. A month in hospital even with physical and occupational therapy – they are not the same – can weaken you a lot. My advice to stroke victims is not to waste time – exercise as much as you can as early as you can.

More on that later. Thanks to all of you who renewed subscriptions or subscribed last month and this year. It is a life saver and I am catching up on the ability to type faster so I can do essays. The brain is still in here, although I wonder if the world is going mad…

Eric was here all day Saturday and we have solved a lot of the problems of computer connections. Need couple of fixes, but I can do the accounts and taxes down here in the old office now. Slowly getting back to normal

I’ll post this now and start today’s essay. Stand by…

The wireless connect on this lap top is slow, but it is almost good enough

.Monday: I am going to catch up on Mail, some of which is important.

So there is mail. Now let’s look at the day… First I am realizing how dependent I am on the Internet working right. It’s slow today, meaning Time Warner is slow, which is the way things were in 2004 or so before I got high speed Internet at all. I lived with it then, now it drives me crazy. So it goes. What cannot be cured… Over time these things fix themselves, and we are so much better off than we were that the improvements are the new normal. When the Franks got to Constantinople, the Byzantines wanted to impress them with their opulence so they served them oranges and fresh vegetables in mid-winter. The height of delight available only to the wealthiest… Now it is a right of the poor – in America. We do not notice that most of the world does not have fresh vegetables except in harvest time. Or oranges at all.

Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record… but we’re only 38% sure we were right

*

* Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record.’

*

* But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error

*

* Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html

ltm

‘The NASA climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true.’

<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html>

Roland Dobbins

hmmm

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Home and thriving, but it takes longer

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 15, 2015 - 3:34 pm | Updated: January 15, 2015 - 4:27 pm | View

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View from Chaos Manor, Thursday, January 15, 2015

Went to Kaiser, took all morning but the verdict is in – I am all right but everything takes longer. So it goes. Physical therapist here just after we got home – pharmacy out there took forever to get one bottle of standard pills. PT was lovely young lady who grew up in Memphis of all places. And gave me a pile of exercises to do daily. Slowly I recover. Well it seems slow to me, but actually the therapists say it is quite rapid. After all, I never got mu balance back after the 50,000 RAD cancer treatment, which finished the tumor.

Thought I might get to LASFS tonight but the fan club as to wait a week… Just too tired. Larry and Wendy will be over tomorrow…

President Obama has acknowledged this problem but, again, at a high level of abstraction. “The question . . . is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works,” he said in his first Inaugural Address. “Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public’s dollars will be held to account to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day.”

But no programs have ended since January 2009. Is it because all of them work?

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/liars-remorse_823377.html?page=3

. This sums up the situation of growing government nicely. Government programs last forever. Das Buros steht immer. As it was in the beginning, is now and ever shall be, per omnia secula seculorum.

Similarly, teacher unions say they protect only the competent, but few incompetents – in LA 10 in eleven years among 30,000 – are ever found. No one gets fired, money is spent, and the kids learn nothing, so they go to college and learn less. Now they are debtors forever, and the beat goes on. They have to turn to government, which will bail them out, by raising taxes and paying themselves big salaries and big sure pensions they could get nowhere else.

Of course eventually you run out of money.

It is predictable and was predicted. Salve sclave.

RE: Google pushes to take Oracle Java copyright

Jerry,

As a software developer, I have always felt that software, which describes a process for solving a problem, should be coverable by patents. This use of patents, however, has been restricted to covering fundamental ideas, like graphical user interfaces, many of which patents should not have been granted because these ideas were already common practice at the time.

That left copyright law to protect general software. It is not in my mind an ideal fit, but my intellectual property deserves some protection or it has no market value what-so-ever. Then I go hungry and so do my children. Not good.

Copyright law, as currently implemented, is rather silent about licensing standard-essential property whereas patent law specifically recognizes standard-essential property. Patent law demands that the holders of patents for technology required to abide by a recognized industry standard (such as IEEE-802.3 for wired Ethernet or IEEE-802.11 for wireless Ethernet) are themselves required to license without prejudice and at a standard price to all who wish to manufacture devices complying with the industry standard. There is no such prevision in copyright law, allowing holders of copyrights over software the right to NOT sell to anyone or to sell at whatever price they wish to each entity wishing to use the copyrighted IP.

The case in question revolves around what Google did when it created Android (Well, Android, Inc. created Android and Google bought Android, Inc…). While Android is based upon Linux, Google wanted the apps running on Android to be written in Java and they wanted a Java JVM to run on top of Android to handle the execution of these apps. Google found that Java was not friendly to mobile devices as they did not have the memory or mass storage capabilities that the Java architecture requires to run well.

Remember the Spirit fiasco on Mars.

Rather than completely abandoning the approach, they re-wrote the Java JVM to be friendly to small devices, calling the result Dalvik. Dalvik is not the open source Java core, but it is based upon it. It does implement the Java API pretty faithfully, but Google diverged from that API where it suited their needs. Android and all of its components are open source. Android is also freeware. It sounds, at least, like fair use of open source software.

I find the case of Oracle trying to claim copyright over the Java API to be dubious as they have placed Java into the market as open source and as an industry standard. It is not, however, a standard recognized by any national or international governing body (e.g. IEEE, ISO, etc.). It is open source, or at least, most of it is. Sun Microsystems completed putting all of the Java they owned into open source in 2007, before Sun was acquired by Oracle. Open source, however, does not mean that anyone if free to redistribute Java tools developed by Oracle, such as the JDK or the JVM. That still needs to be licensed for commercial use.

Oracle has taken exception to Google’s use of the Java ‘standard’. Since Google does not use the JVM (it uses Dalvik), Oracle’s only approach to getting at Google is to claim abuse of copyright on its Java API, which Google largely used intact. The decision that API’s are copyrightable leaves Google with a very weak "fair use" defense. I see it as weak, because fair use has never allowed anyone to widely redistribute copyrighted material for free.

Should API’s be copyrightable? Probably, because they can’t be patented and IP deserves market protection. Do we need a way to manage copyrighted material that is standard-essential in the market place? Most definitely. Should the Java API, which has been put into the open source space, be copyrightable? Probably not. Open source distribution means that anyone can make as many copies as they want and give it away for free. It means that new code can be written based upon the open source and be given away for free as widely as desired. This seems incompatible with copyright protection. Did the court decision say that the Java API was not open source? Did the court even consider the nature of open source?

As a developer, I realize that recognizing copyright protection for industry standard APIs, absent a rule under copyright for handling standard-essential IP, is a disaster. I also recognize that the court’s decision has a terrible impact on the meaning of open source. If I base popular work on open source software, do I risk being sued for copyright infringement? IP protection needs to be re-thought and re-implemented.

Kevin L Keegan

It is generally known that when Oracle (aka One Raving Ass Called Larry Ellison) went to acquire Sun, the main goal was to monetize Java, and only reluctantly dealing with Sun’s dwindling hardware business. Android developers write in Java, then run the resultant code through a converter to create Android-compatible bytecode for its VM (Dalvik). Android’s need to create a counterpart VM was then-Sun’s insistence on licensing for mobile Java.

Oracle is trying to levy a reverse-engineering tax on Google for their ingenuity in avoiding the mobile Java licensing terms. Imagine the state of the industry had IBM done this back in the 80s to Phoenix, AMI etc for the PC BIOS, or AT&T/Novell to Linus Torvalds for reverse-engineering the UNIX APIs for Linux. In a previous life I made my living reverse-engineering 3270 terminal controllers for a third-party firm made up mainly of former IBM engineers from Triangle Park NC; they’d have been sued out of existence in this scenario.

If this went in Oracle’s favor, most coding would be brought to a screeching halt for re-implementing anything previously done by anyone, anywhere, in the last 70+ years (modulo the successor to the Sonny Bono copyright law).

Robert Halloran

Wow, followup to the previous item: EFF has submitted an amicus brief in support of Google with a list of names looking like a Who’s Who from the Computer Science Hall of Fame: Vint Cerf, Ken Thompson (UNIX), Bjarne Stroustrup (C++) , Alfred Aho, Peter Weinberger and Brian Kernighan (the A, W and K in UNIX’ awk), Alan Kay and Peter Deutsch (Smalltalk), Brendan Eich (Javascript), Ed Felten and Bruce Schneier (security), Mitch Kapor (Lotus), Ray Kurtweil, Tim Paterson (86-DOS); https://www.eff.org/document/amicus-brief-computer-scientists-scotus

Robert Halloran

One of my earliest columns in BYTE – about 1982 – included a conversation with my mad friend Dan Mac Lean on copyright vs. patents in software. Just what is patentable? But code is not the same as stories.

Buck up! Good reading ahead!

http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/?p=8139#more-8139

Sci Phi Journal on Amazon!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

Thanks. Indeed

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I’m glad you are out of the hospital and are recovering well.

I thought you might appreciate this feel-good story; Marines foil a robbery in progress, being careful not to mess up their dress blues.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/01/14/three-marines-foil-armed-robbery-of-woman-without-wrinkling-dress-blues/

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Robert Kinoshita, RIP.

<http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/robert-kinoshita-dead-robot-designer-763491>

Roland Dobbins

Sisi’s Brave New Egypt?

<http://pjmedia.com/blog/sisis-brave-new-egypt/?singlepage=true>

Roland Dobbins

‘A federal researcher points out George III couldn’t suspend laws — as many say Obama just did.’

<http://www.nationalreview.com/article/396261/what-not-even-king-england-could-do-joel-gehrke>

Roland Dobbins

Jerry, on your blog, you said:

It did sound a bit fuzzy to me, but it’s a bit out of my field. So what did happen? Just change in direction of a beam? That happens all the time.

Well, I’m an astronomer/astrophysicist by education and experience, so it’s right in my field. And if anything unusual happened at all — I haven’t gotten hold of the full article from the Astrophysical Journal yet, let alone had time to read it in full, so I can’t say that ANYthing unusual happened yet, although the news media seem to think so — then it was a simple (well, perhaps not so simple, depending on your point of view) case of spacetime distortion from the powerful gravity fields causing a gravitational lensing effect that essentially changed the direction of the pulsar beam.

If I should find out any more info, I will let you know asap.

Stephanie Osborn

Interstellar Woman of Mystery

Jerry,

The general public ‘science’ article published by the Inquisitor about the disappearing pulsar drew upon another general public science article published by Popular Science. The Popular Science interpretations of the science were quite liberally reinterpreted by the Inquisitor.

Nothing unusual happened to pulsar J1906. It is NOT beaming its signal somewhere else in time, just somewhere else in space. We detect pulsars as pulsars because spinning neutron stars that are accreting mass from another object produce jets at points perpendicular to the accretion disk, a plane determined by the neutron star’s magnetic field, not by its spin axis. Just like on the Earth, the magnetic poles on a neutron star seldom align with the spin axis of the neutron star, so as the neutron star rotates (at up to 30 times per second), the jets emitted at the poles are swept though space like a lighthouse. If those jets happen to illuminate the Earth, we detect them as pulsars. We can only detect pulsars that happen to aim at the Earth at some point in their rotation. Most pulsars never do, so we do not detect them, though we can estimate their number given the number of pulsars we have found.

Precession happens to any spinning object whose rotation axis is not vertical. As children, we see this as the wobble of our toy tops when we nudge them away from vertical while they spin. Newton provided a means of predicting the rate of precession for our toy tops, so we call this Newtonian precession. When you get up to objects of significant mass, such as the Earth, scientists like to differentiate the precession of these objects by calling it geodetic precession (see http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/geodetic/). While it is difficult to define ‘vertical’ in open space, a rotating mass produces a bulge at its equator, making it wider and more massive around its equator than it is around its poles. The Earth has this issue. The gravitational influences of the Moon and the Sun would like to keep that bulge at the Earth’s equator in the plane of the Moon’s orbit around the Earth and in the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The two are not coincident, so they are each pulling on the Earth’s bulge in different directions at different times. Also, the Earth’s spin axis is tilted 26 degrees to it solar orbital plane, likely by a large impact over 4 billion years ago. All of this leads the Earth to have an approximately 26,000 year precession. If we beamed a laser straight up in the sky from the North spin pole, it would strike the star we currently call Polaris. A few thousand years now, it will strike a different star. At some point in the time between, any observers watching Earth from Polaris will see our laser beam wink out. Disappear. Did the Earth just vanish? No. Did our laser beam go somewhere else in time? No.

What is complicating the Inquisitor interpretation is a misunderstanding of geodetic precision. Scientists make this distinction because large rotating masses alter their precession rates in a significant way due to the effects of gravity. In 1916, W. de Sitter used general relativity to predict that when a mass rotates, it actually rotates the spacetime around it as well. Think of it as a twisting effect, as would happen if you spun a bowling ball on a rubber sheet. This is called frame dragging. If a spinning mass is precessing, then frame dragging will have an effect on the rate of precession. It will not, though, allow the rotating object to send signals to other times.

What was observed with pulsar J1906 was geodetic precession shifting the axis of rotation away from the Earth, thus rendering the pulsar undetectable. While it may be the first time we have observed a pulsar doing this, it is not going to re-write the physics text books. Even without the effects of general relativity, this pulsar, and ALL of the other pulsars we currently observe, will eventually become undetectable as pulsars from the Earth as precession moves their rotation axes. Geodetic precession just predicts the when of this better than Newtonian precession. According to the Popular Science article, geodetic precession predicts that pulsar J1906 will be observable as a pulsar from the Earth again in just 160 years.

Kevin L Keegan

One advantage of being me is that I generally know someone who someone – or several – who does know. Pity this is probably a fairly standard observation among pulsars

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Home! Throwing money at things does not work.

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 12, 2015 - 12:47 pm | Updated: January 12, 2015 - 5:14 pm | View

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View from Chaos Manor, Saturday, January 10, 2015

Was delayed. Still at home. Monday, January 12, 2015

Came home Friday night. Get about with a wheelchair and walker … I am not frail, but I have even less balance than before, and I had essentially none before. I will add to this all day. Essentially I cannot type fast, but I can use both hands now. That may not be as fast as 2 fingers, do not know yet.

Slow but I am here. And of course it’s all expensive.

Hillary’s Half-Baked Haiti Project [WSJ]

Caracol Industrial Park is failing to deliver on the promises made to foreign investors and Haitians.

By

Mary Anastasia O’Grady

Jan. 11, 2015 6:18 p.m. ET

On the fifth anniversary of the 7.0 magnitude earthquake in Port-au-Prince, Haiti remains a poster child for waste, fraud and corruption in the handling of aid. Nowhere is the bureaucratic ineptitude and greed harder to accept than at the 607-acre Caracol Industrial Park, a project launched by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with U.S. taxpayer money, under the supervision of her husband Bill and his Clinton Foundation.

Between the State Department and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), which hands out…

Hillary’s Half-Baked Haiti Project: Mary A. O’Grady

The news all over the weekend was about France, but there are other stories that may be more important. Haiti proves again that throwing money at a problem enriches bureaucrats, but does far less good for those we “help”. Of course for Haiti it has been this way a very long time. When I was in graduate school I had a fried from Haiti who was studying fishing science at the University of Washington. He had the same observations, foreign aid from the US went to US civil servants, Brown and Root contractors who imported all but the most menial labor at high prices, and Haitian officials working for Duvalier. Clinton sent Marines to restore a different crook to office, and Brown and Root continued to thrive, and little else changed as the roads degenerated into jungle again. Little has changed. Haiti will not be rich, but we have put enough money in there that it should be up to poverty level if we just dropped the money from airplanes.

Education’s No Dollar Left Behind Competition

K-12 spending has little bearing on student success, yet state rankings drive the money scramble.

By

Vicki Alger

Jan. 11, 2015 5:59 p.m. ET

One of education’s most important annual rituals began last week, when Education Week released its annual Quality Counts report, which grades states based on a variety of criteria, including spending. On cue came the predictable hand-wringing over K-12 education funding.

On Thursday Florida’s Duval County Public Schools Superintendent Nikolai Vitti told the Florida Times-Union that underfunding is undermining student achievement. “[I]magine how much stronger our students would perform if the policy commitments were maintained and balanced with an increase in per pupil funding,” he said.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/vicki-alger-educations-no-dollar-left-behind-competition-1421017161

Of course the best schools have 50% proficiency in reading. Yet I recall in Capleville with two grades to the room, 25 students (usually; sometimes more) to the grade, four teachers to the whole school – the 7-8 grade teacher was Principal, and there were no other officials, no guidance counselors, no frills, and surely no $5000 a year per pupil – EVERYONE could read better than most high schoolers can today. See my California Reader on Amazon for what we read in 6^th grade.

Throwing money at them makes schools worse not better. Cut the school budget and give local boards control, and get the education experts out of the way. Fire them or bribe to get out of the way. Let teacher teach and put some discipline in the classrooms and things might improve. They can hardly get worse than the experts have made them.

If this is true, it’s the most important discovery to date in human history.

<http://www.inquisitr.com/1745673/pulsar-observed-wobbling-out-of-space-time-and-vanishing-out-of-our-now/>

—————-

Roland Dobbins

It certainly seems significant. This is perhaps a crucial finding for Einstein; I do not see how Petr Beckmann can explain the vanishing but I am not sure that ia really what was observed.

Web: www.nss.org <http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001EJ_Yd-dbwmXhomE0GHvhwWM1RjYLDRgETsoI8iPV2DGUEOt8oFD_LnQfhjUaG9wGXk_hiDGCg67lCJLDCS7curyr3NFEaW_PNp8ghjDslMCJL8W08cLAkuPWSfK50U3qM1jQnKf7x8oedxtFVINM-M5H_FHLKrQ1&c=a6Qs5IRzfyXMo0xE7XIHNZz4aqUrLraLaLe6tza19V36Ya7GXBuSAw==&ch=9Abw5bAFaycARgPM2duTGvcrtPDaKRqphLHg-LWxSd8mcBoZnzqEyQ==>

National Space Society Applauds Milestone on the Road to Space Settlement: First Precision Return of a Falcon 9 First Stage to an Ocean Platform

(Washington DC, January 12, 2015) The recent launch of NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services 5 (CRS-5) on January 10th represents a major step towards space settlement, according to the National Space Society (NSS). The Dragon capsule berthed with the International Space Station (ISS) at 5:54 am EST Monday, January 12th. This is the seventh flight of the Dragon, and the fifth of 12 contracted flights to the ISS by SpaceX.

CRS-5 marked a major step forward for SpaceX’s efforts to develop reusable rocket technology. Such technology is called for in Milestone 2 of the NSS Space Settlement Roadmap (http://www.nss.org/settlement/roadmap/ <http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001EJ_Yd-dbwmXhomE0GHvhwWM1RjYLDRgETsoI8iPV2DGUEOt8oFD_Lq__lWm6K7xYnZl-7_6CYoEmotz0B1JFUbOtre1AJwIDBbEevqUOtOqcK8eAIbsxsa2T77SH3Gdlbv6wuAaZxTWdePHVm6AClVGJUeTnMTtjv1dYMJhCqw-aqpQFb59b4ludm5Zi-nPTHKKPgSISLj4=&c=a6Qs5IRzfyXMo0xE7XIHNZz4aqUrLraLaLe6tza19V36Ya7GXBuSAw==&ch=9Abw5bAFaycARgPM2duTGvcrtPDaKRqphLHg-LWxSd8mcBoZnzqEyQ==> ), titled "Higher Commercial Launch Rates and Lower Cost to Orbit" based on, among other things, "re-usable vehicles." For the first time ever, SpaceX attempted to land a returning first stage on an ocean-going platform. The stage impacted the platform "hard" according to Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO. The ocean platform measures 300-ft by 170-ft, and achieving this level of precision on first stage return represents a significant milestone toward a reusable launcher. CRS-5 also utilized for the first time hydraulic grid fins to control the descent. Musk stated that the "grid fins worked extremely well … but ran out of hydraulic fluid right before landing." The next Falcon 9 flight will increase the amount of hydraulic fluid by 50%, raising the chance of a successful landing that will lead to ultimate re-use of the first stage and a significant drop in the cost of flying to space.

Nobody threw money at them

<http://www.inquisitr.com/1745673/pulsar-observed-wobbling-out-of-space-time-and-vanishing-out-of-our-now/>

The headline is total hooey, and the science in the article is BS. The article in the ApJ — at least the abstract — indicates that all that is happening is that the relativitistic gravitational distortion is creating a gravitational lensing effect, and changing the direction of the pulsar "beams" as a result.

I quote, "The pulsar is fading fast due to geodetic precession, limiting future timing improvements."

http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/798/2/118/article

Stephanie Osborn

Interstellar Woman of Mystery

http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com <http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/>

It did sound a bit fuzzy to me, but it’s a bit out of my field. So what did happen? Just change in direction of a beam? That happens all the time.

Google pushes to take Oracle Java copyright case to Supreme Court (ZD)

Summary:Can software code, and application programming interfaces in particular, be copyrighted? That is the question.

By Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols <http://www.zdnet.com/meet-the-team/us/steven-j-vaughan-nichols/> for Linux and Open Source <http://www.zdnet.com/blog/open-source/> | January 12, 2015 — 16:46 GMT (08:46 PST)

This is important, because how can there be a standard if copyright is used to make these things proprietary for seventy years?