Monthly Archives: June 2014

View 828, Saturday, June 14, 2014

John Quincy Adams on American Policy:

Whenever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.

She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.

Fourth of July, 1821

It’s Roberta’s birthday and I got her the newest version Kindle Fire. It’s more advanced than my Kindle Fire and while I am sure it’s better, I haven’t figured it all out yet. I have got it running and it is registered as hers with her Amazon account. There was no book of instructions but there are supposed to be all kinds of instructions on the machine, and we are connected to the house Wi-Fi network. We’ll see but I am now going to go look for books on the new Kindle, because my experience with my older Fire doesn’t seem at all relevant. Maybe Alex can help.

The President has said that anyone who doesn’t believe in man caused global warming, and that we can do unilaterally something about it by curbing the carbon emissions of the United States, is putting partisanship over national interest, and is ignoring the indisputable scientific evidence. In his speech he was a bit short on the evidence, and had nothing to say about the obvious questions. Alas, I haven’t heard any discussion of the obvious questions from the True Believers – and oddly enough, the few who do now talk about the obvious questions have left the ranks of True Believers and have become Deniers. You can hear this speech.

President Obama Urges Action on Climate Change During UC Irvine Address

http://time.com/2875807/obama-uc-irvine-climate-change/

This is not science or any pretense of it. It is certainly not rational discussion. We seem to have degenerated to the point that important decisions are now made by partisan debating tactics, and to have no one in the decision making process who is actually interested in understanding what is actually going on with Earth’s climate.

Of course it gets boring to continue to ask the questions, only to be ignored – then after a while the opposition pretends the obvious questions do not exist, or that they have been answered to the satisfaction of any rational person.

The questions remain.

First, there needs to be a discussion about methods of measurement, and comparing temperatures from one year to another. In the real world, in the late 1960’s, I found it difficult to come up with the average skin temperature of an astronaut in a full pressure suit to a one degree F accuracy. I used dime sized thin copper disks with thermocouples soldered to them; we taped them to the astronaut’s skin. We chose back of hand, mid back, mid abdomen, and other such places so that we would have some comparability: the point of the tests was to measure the ventilation systems in the suit. We could measure the air flow of the controlled temperature air we used for ventilation, and the input temperature of that air, so that got another thermocouple from the harness. One of the thermocouples in the 12 thermocouple set went into a carafe of melting ice; the ice had been frozen from distilled water. That gave us a reference temperature accurate to 0.1° F. The thermocouple machine printed what it could see at one minute intervals; when we consolidated the data we sampled those one-minute readings since we didn’t have the data entry capability to use them all for average. In the modern world that would not be a problem.

But I do not know how to get the average temperature of my city block to any 0.1 ° F accuracy: where would I take the measurements so they would be comparable from day to day? Assuming I can answer that question, how would I do it for the City of LA? California? USA? But we want an average temperature of the entire Earth to that accuracy, and average all that over a year. We need 0.1° accuracy because that is what we find we need to describe the warming. Now I understand how we could come up with the measurements now, and take the same measurements year after year: but we were not doing that fifty years ago, much less 100 years ago, or 200 years ago. In the 1800’s the way we got sea temperatures was to pull up a bucket of sea water from some depth, put a mercury thermometer into the bucket, wait a bit, and read the thermometer. I think we can safely assume that these readings were not accurate to any 0.1 degree and probably not to 1 degree.

The same is true of most of the other measurements in the 19^th Century. We have measurements from many places, but from the same place every year. We know that in 1800 the Thames froze over solid enough to allow merchants to set up market stalls on the frozen river, and this practice continued until sometime into the century. The climate was certainly changing, but we don’t have a very good picture of how it changed. On Christmas Eve 1776 the cannon captured by Ethan Allen at Ticonderoga were taken to General George Washington on Haarlem Heights, saving his army from Howe who was working up the nerve to storm Washington’s position and end this rebellion once and for all. When he heard that Washington had cannon he called off the attack, and Washington escaped to fight another day. There was a time when every American school child knew this. The point being it was very cold in New York in 1776 although it was considered a warmer than usual winter. No one was astonished that the Hudson was frozen hard enough to cross with cannon. By 1850 the Hudson did not freeze so hard.

As The Hudson River Freezes, Classic Ice Yachts Emerge

It’s a rare sight of a sport that drew thousands of spectators in the late 1800s, when Hudson Valley gentry like the Roosevelts and brewer and New York Yankees owner Jacob Rupert raced their yachts on lengthy courses up and down the river north of Poughkeepsie. Commodore John E. Roosevelt — FDR’s uncle — built the 69-foot Icicle and formed the Hudson River Ice Yacht Club in 1869. A 46-foot version of the yacht was later clocked at more than 100 m.p.h. FDR so loved his own iceboat Hawk – a gift from his mother in 1901 — that he included it in the collection at his presidential library.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2014/03/07/as-the-hudson-river-freezes-over-classic-ice-yachts-emerge/

I cannot find a reference to the time when the Hudson froze so hard that you could bring cannon across to Haarlem Heights, but it doesn’t seem to have happened in this century. Sometime back in the days when the Vanderbilts and the Roosevelts raced ice boats.

My point is that the climate has been warming since 1800; exactly when the warming trend began to accelerate doesn’t seem to have been determined; yet isn’t that important if you are doing climate models?

Clearly the Earth has been colder, and it is now warming, and has been since 1800 or so.

But we also know that it has been warmer. We don’t have any good numbers for the average global temperature in Viking times, but it used to be that every schoolchild knew that Leif the Lucky discovered Vinland, which was either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. The name Vinland is interesting: certainly no place it could possibly have been grows grapes now. Leif sailed from the dairy farms his father, Eric the Red, had founded in Greenland. There are no dairy farms in Greenland now, although some of the old settlements are now emerging from the ice.

In the same time period (Leif the Lucky 970 – 1020 AD) we have records from Scotland and northern England: they grew grapes and made wine there. We have records from continental monasteries where they recorded planting and harvest dates: the growing seasons were longer than at present. We have records from eastern Europe. Same message, and also from China. The obvious conclusion is that the Earth was warmer than it had been in the earlier period after Marcus Aurelius when the growing seasons began to shorten, northern climates were colder, and the great migrations that wiped out the Western Roman Empire began in full force.

In other words, the Earth has been both warmer and cooler than it is now, and this in historical times. Clearly this was not a consequence of human industry. Something else happened. The best guess is solar activity, but there is some evidence of volcanic activities as well. Benjamin Franklin on passage to England observed the thick volcanic clouds streaming downwind from Iceland and wondered if enough of those would not cause an age of ice: evidence that the Great Lakes and much of Canada and New England had been covered with ice at one time was being gathered and discussed, and Franklin read everything.

I note that none of the climate models that predict the climate for a hundred years from now have any explanation of the Viking Warm or the 1400—1800 Little Ice Age. Indeed they don’t really account for the period in which annual average temperature fell after 1960 to after 1980.

Extreme Weather In The 1960’s & 1970’s

We are all familiar with the “ice age “scare of the early 1970’s. Science News ran a report at the time, with an interview with C C Wallen, chief of the Special Environmental Applications Division, at the World Meteorological Organization.

According to the article,

By contrast, (with the Little Ice Age), the weather in the first part of this century has been the warmest and best for world agriculture in over a millennium, and, partly as a result, the world’s population has more than doubled. Since 1940, however, the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere has been steadily falling: Having risen about 1.1 degrees C. between 1885 and 1940, according to one estimation, the temperature has already fallen back some 0.6 degrees, and shows no signs of reversal.

Extreme Weather In The 1960’s & 1970’s

There are no climate models that can take the initial conditions of 1900 and show the actual climate patterns that took place from 1900 to present.

I do not see these questions being addressed by the True Believers, or any indication that President Obama even knows they exist.

There are other questions never addressed.

Antarctic Glacier Melt Due To Volcanoes, Not Global Warming

Jerry

“A new study by researchers at the University of Texas, Austin found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is collapsing due to geothermal heat, not man-made global warming:”

http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/11/study-west-antarctic-glacier-melt-due-to-volcanoes-not-global-warming/

“Researchers from the UTA’s Institute for Geophysics found that the Thwaites Glacier in western Antarctica is being eroded by the ocean as well as geothermal heat from magma and subaerial volcanoes. Thwaites is considered a key glacier for understanding future sea level rise. UTA researchers used radar techniques to map water flows under ice sheets and estimate the rate of ice melt in the glacier. As it turns out, geothermal heat from magma and volcanoes under the glacier is much hotter and covers a much wider area than was previously thought.

“Geothermal flux is one of the most dynamically critical ice sheet boundary conditions but is extremely difficult to constrain at the scale required to understand and predict the behavior of rapidly changing glaciers,” UTA researchers wrote in their study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The geothermal heat under the glaciers is likely a key factor in why the ice sheet is currently collapsing. Before this study, it was assumed that heat flow under the glacier was evenly distributed throughout, but UTA’s study shows this is not the case. Heat levels under the glacier are uneven, with some areas being much hotter than others.

“The combination of variable subglacial geothermal heat flow and the interacting subglacial water system could threaten the stability of Thwaites Glacier in ways that we never before imagined,” lead researcher David Schroeder said in a press release.

And volcanoes are a significant source of CO2 as well.

Ed

Volcanoes can cool by putting up articulate matter. Underwater volcanoes can heat the seas and trigger El Nino and La Nina events. None of this is well understood. It is certainly not general purpose “global warming” or even “climate change” that has caused the change in Antarctic Ice; indeed, this latest cold period has produced more ice in polar regions that has been normal in the past few years. There appears to be a cycle at work here. It is apparently not well understood or perhaps not understood at all.

Another question not addressed:

There is no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the warming is not global.

Freeman Dyson, American physicist.

http://noconsensus.org/scientists/freeman_dyson.php

President Obama told us today that CO2 traps heat. He said in a way that implies that no one can question that, and everyone must know it, and there is nothing else to discuss. Dyson points out that water vapor traps heat much better than CO2: indeed, anywhere there is high humidity, CO2 is irrelevant because there is no heat escaping for CO2 to trap. The water vapor has got it all. Therefore the effects of CO2 will mostly be on cold dry places. Most of the Earth is covered with water.

Methane is also a much better greenhouse gas than CO2, and any place that has methane in the atmosphere – above certain evergreen forests, and near large herds of cattle, as an example – CO2 will be irrelevant because all the heat escaping through the atmosphere will already be absorbed.

We could continue but there is no need to break a butterfly on the wheel: these are questions that are seldom addressed by the Climate Change True Believers, and when they are it is generally with condescension, as if everyone knows what brought about the Greenland farms. When pressed for a bit more specific information one usually is told “Gulf Stream” as if the Gulf Stream could simultaneously affect the temperature of Greenland, the Western Scottish Islands, Northumberland, York, Denmark, Saxony, Lithuania, and China, all of which recorded warmer weather and longer growing seasons. I have never had any of the True Believers offer to go beyond that condescension.

The President apparently is going to make Climate Change a big and important driver of his policies for the next few years. He seems quite positive that he knows all that anyone needs to know about the subject, and the topic is closed. Anyone who does not understand this believes that the Moon is made of cheese. There is nothing to discuss.

President Obama on Iraq: extract from Speech in 2008

When you have no overarching strategy, there is no clear definition of success. Success comes to be defined as the ability to maintain a flawed policy indefinitely. Here is the truth: fighting a war without end will not force the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future. And fighting in a war without end will not make the American people safer.

So when I am Commander-in-Chief, I will set a new goal on Day One: I will end this war. Not because politics compels it. Not because our troops cannot bear the burden– as heavy as it is. But because it is the right thing to do for our national security, and it will ultimately make us safer.

In order to end this war responsibly, I will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq.

http://www.cfr.org/elections/obamas-speech-iraq-march-2008/p15761

We can’t say he didn’t warn us.

Meanwhile the collapse of the Shiite Iraqi government we left behind continues. Sunni jihadists kill Shia heretics. The Kurds continue to consolidate. Since there are as many Kurds in Iran as in Iraq, and as many in Turkey as in Iraq, a consolidated independent Kurdish state on their borders is a major threat. Turkey is predominantly Sunni and Sufi. Iran is of course Shiite. Kurds are considered Sunni, sort of (“Compared to infidels, Kurds are Moslems”) but are closer to the West’s notion of “moderate Islamics” than almost any other powerful group. As I have noted, Saladin (1139 – 1193), the conqueror of Crusader Jerusalem in 1187, was a Kurd.

The latest news shows that the ISIS Sunni conquests continue as the government forces run away, but there is vigorous recruiting in Baghdad, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is said to be sending help to the Iraqi Shiites. No one is calling this civil war yet, but it certainly looks a lot like one.

Obama to Iraq: Your Problem Now

In his State of the Union address, in January, President Obama said, “When I took office, nearly a hundred and eighty thousand Americans were serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, all our troops are out of Iraq.” It was a boast, not an apology. The descent of Iraq into open civil war in the past week has not, to judge from his remarks on Friday, fundamentally changed that view. He did grant that it was alarming that the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, “a terrorist organization that operates in both Iraq and in Syria,” had made what he delicately called “significant gains” in Iraq. (That is, it has taken control of more than one city.) He said that he wasn’t entirely surprised—things hadn’t been looking good in Iraq for a while, and we’d been giving the government there more help. “Now Iraq needs additional support to break the momentum of extremist groups and bolster the capabilities of Iraqi security forces,” he said. After all, as he put it, “Nobody has an interest in seeing terrorists gain a foothold inside of Iraq.” But there were limits: “We will not be sending U.S. troops back into combat in Iraq.”

Speaking from the South Lawn, Obama argued that this was not just a matter of what the American people would accept, or the limits of our capacity to make sacrifices for humanitarian goals. It’s more that he doesn’t see the point. As he sees it, after all our investment of lives and money—“extraordinary sacrifices”—the Iraqis have not been willing to treat each other decently, and until they do our air strikes won’t help. “This is not solely, or even primarily, a military challenge,” he said, and went on:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2014/06/obama-to-iraq-your-problem-now.html

We await the news from Baghdad with abated breath. Note that the Russians are inclined to support Bashar Assad in Syria, because he is the only major leader there who has religious tolerance as a policy. Given the substantial number of Druze in northern Syria and Lebanon this may be important.  Only Israel and Lebanon seem aware of the Druze; I see no evidence that the State Department has ever heard of them.

Of course that isn’t the only reason for Russian support of Assad in Syria. His father had the support of the USSR; but not all former allies of the USSR are now allies of Russia.  The issue is complex, and Russia’s interests in that part of the world are not all in synch.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

View 828, Friday, June 13, 2014

John Quincy Adams on American Policy:

Whenever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.

She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.

Fourth of July, 1821

Home safe.  A few excitements over weather in Carolina, but US Air handled it all well, and despite several hours delay in getting off Hilton Head Island I got to Charlotte just in time for my regularly scheduled flight to LAX, the limousine service met me at the proper time and place, and LA freeways were working, and I got home tired but safe.  The conference was well worth going to. These are the people who are doing the work in advancing nanotech, mostly working at micron levels now,  building tools, testing materials, polishing surface, developing lithography at micron and smaller scales, and in general implementing the technology.  Think early days of the computer revolution.

In my talk to the conference I said that I could predict with confidence that everything I saw at this conference would be available as an app on whatever equivalent of an iPhone we will be carrying in 2044; that the smart phone we carried would have 10 terabytes of information storage  — on reflection I am sure it will be closer to 100 TB – and be able to Skype with anyone in the world who had one, and that would be a large fraction of the human race. Presumably we will be able to filter out unwanted calls, but it’s not clear how.  “Siri, call whoever is at the GPS location…”  We will not be at a singularity caused by self-replicating self-aware macro, micro, or nanotech robots doing Lamarckian evolution.  We will be building things that all of us will say “I should have thought of that!”.  Some of those in the room listening to this will be billionaires.  Most will not be, but nearly all will be well employed.  You went into the right field.  It was worth the cost of your education.

More on that another time.

The situation in Iraq is terrible. Predictable and predicted, of course. Now the Sunni al-Qaida are running amok killing heretic Shia, and the Shia Iranians are getting nervous, and as I understand it the super-Shia Iranian Republican Guard are now intervening. Meanwhile the pro-western Kurds seem secure and have used this opportunity to seize Kirkuk and some oil fields, and generally to consolidate their hold on their Kurdistan; and of course this all strengthens their independence from Baghdad. As to religion, the saying among Arabs is “Compared to infidels, Kurds are Moslem”. Since the time of the Saladin sultanate (Saladin was a Kurd and his shock troops which took Jerusalem from the Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem were Kurds), the Kurds have been comparatively and sometimes extraordinarily tolerant of all branches of the Moslem religion, and have made deals with the Christians. The Third Crusade ended when Richard Lionheart concluded that he could not retake Jerusalem, but was able to negotiate an acceptable truce with Saladin allowing Christian pilgrims to visit the Holy City, and even allowed some of the Christian hospitaler orders to operate.

The enemy of my enemy may or may not be my friend. Sometimes the enemy of my enemy remains my enemy. Between the Iranian Republican Guard and the al-Qaida jihadists there is little difference in their intensity of hatred for much of the west, and each time one of them kills his enemy perhaps we should applaud.

When we first decided to play the conquest game in Mesopotamia, I urged the powers to consider breaking Iraq – an artificial state created from provinces of the disintegrating Turkish empire and invented largely to create a kingdom for the oldest of the Hashemite brothers (his younger brother got Trans-Jordan) – into Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite states, drawing borders so that all got some oil, and all would be reasonably stable.

Note that Jordan is Sunni and more or less pro western, and far more tolerant of Jews and Christians than their Sunni relatives in Arabia. Note also that most Palestinian Arabs – over 90% — are Sunni, although they accept support from the Shiite Iranians.

Syria was Sunni, and tolerant of Christians, Sunni, Druze, Baha’i, and even some Jewish communities. This was because the rulers were Alawite, a minority within the Shia minority, and really needed a national policy of religious tolerance.  There are also Druze in Syria, and Druze are heretics to both Sunni and Shia. Tolerance has ended in all the areas taken from the Syrian government, and the usual first act of the taking of an area by insurgents is to chase the heretics and infidels out.

The Iraqi civil war was predictable and predicted – we predicted it here. The outcome is serious. When we went into Iraq the costs estimate was $300 billion. That was laughable but I pointed out that for that much money we could make the United States energy independent and tell the Arabs to drink their oil; we would not longer have any great interests there. Of course that was never considered; many say “and no wonder, there were too many oil interests involved”; to which I could only nod. Then we went in and Iraq fell. We promised the Iraqi generals that they “would have an honorable place in rebuilding Iraq”. There was a chance then to rebuild a state with regional armies; probably three states, Sunni, Shiite, and Kurd, with a loose federal government and a rigidly tolerant constitution. For a time it appeared that could be done.

Then Came Bremer.

 

Britain’s failure to intervene in Syria sparked Iraq chaos, No10 aide says

Nadhim Zahawi says al-Qaeda-aligned fighters "thrived" in Syria after Britain’s failure to strike created a "vacuum"

 

Britain’s failure to intervene in Syria has led to Iraq’s descent into civil war, a Downing Street adviser has said.

Al-Qaeda aligned militants have overrun a string of Iraq’s major cities because Britain created a “vacuum” in Syria, Nadhim Zahawi, a member of the No 10 policy board said.

He blamed the United States’ governance of Iraq following the 2003 invasion for the country’s seizure by Islamist terrorists.

The decision of Paul Bremer, the head of the occupational authority in Iraq, to disband the 700,000-man Iraqi Army eleven years ago is the root cause of the crisis, Mr. Zahawi, who was born in Iraq, said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10894255/Britains-failure-to-intervene-in-Syria-sparked-Iraq-chaos-No10-aide-says.html

It’s hard to say what policy the US should have now. Since this civil war was predictable and predicted, one hopes that President Obama (or VP Biden) have been thinking about this and have a policy ready to implement.

I have seen no evidence that this is more than a hope.

And now we wait and see. Al-Qaida will kill Shiites. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard will kill Sunni. The Kurds will consolidate and continue their policy of tolerance. At least the Kurds are better off than they were under Saddam.

I have this which needs comment:

Constitution

Your view column on 6/13/2014 includes a section from Roland Dobbins that you seem to agree with. He is saying that an amendment to the constitution is "unconstitutional". A clearly incorrect statement. Your seeming agreement with this makes all of your points suspect. Had He/You stated that you didn’t like the 14th amendment or various SCOTUS rulings, that would be fine and would not call in to question your logic. Please understand, I believe that the SCOTUS has made many questionable rulings, but amendments aren’t their responsibility, other than to rule on the application of the amendments.

Respectfully,

Jose Tenembaum

What Roland said was:

I applaud the ends, but deplore the means.

<http://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-teacher-lawsuit-20140611-story.html#page=1>

This is not a Federal issue, yet the legal reasoning rests upon the specious ‘disparate impact’ penumbra of the (unconstitutional, in my view) ‘equal protection’ clause of the (again, unconstitutional, in my view) Fourteenth Amendment.

That is not an assertion that the Constitution cannot be amended – there are a couple of very specific things that cannot be amended:

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no state, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate

What Roland asserts, and I tend to agree, is that the majority opinion expressed by Douglas in Griswold v. Connecticut, which stated that cases can be decided by “emanations and penumbras” from other amendments, was improper, and thus “unconstitutional”. Of course it is not unconstitutional in that the court made the decision and it is the law of the land; the proper way for him to have said it, I suppose, would have been to say “in my judgment” or some such, and perhaps to explain the reasoning, but that would have detracted from the point which had to do with teacher tenure – another “constitutional right” found in emanations and penumbras.

It is also possible to make the case that the 14^th Amendment was not properly accepted by sufficient state governments, since the former Confederate states were governed by Union occupation forces and the legislators and executives imposed by the Union army of occupation; and thus the amendment was not constitution because not adopted constitutionally.

I tend to agree with that, provided that we understand that it is an academic argument: I conceive of no plausible way that the 14^th Amendment will ever be declared invalid. It is not so certain that the interpretation of the Constitution holding that the Bill of Rights (and its emanations and penumbras) is now to be applied against the States will prevail forever. Until the 1920’s the Courts held that was not the case. It is unlikely that the modern interpretation will be overturned but it is not impossible, and one can conceive of plausible scenarios in which a Supreme Court might in fact get rid of all that, emanations and penumbras and all.

And I certainly agree that the vague ‘disparate impact’ penumbra is subject to reinterpretation and may well be cast out by a subsequent majority. If that makes everything I say suspect, I have no reply: I do not believe that the USSC is always correct, and I have considerable evidence that it has in fact reversed itself on many key constitution points. To hold that it is infallible is in my judgment a mistake. It is also unlikely that we will return to the older Jacksonian interpretation of the Constitution, in which each branch – legislative, judicial and executive – is charged to obey its own interpretation of the constitution, because it is good to have an agreed on final authority on that subject. Jackson’s answer in one famous case was “John Marshall has made his decision, now let him enforce it.” Or so we were taught in Tennessee history in 5^th grade; I understand it is now said to be apocryphal. Perhaps so, but the sentiment appears from time to time in other Presidents. USSC is a curb on imperial power.

In any event, I did not have time to write a long comment on the case, and I do agree that the result is good, but the reasoning is appalling. The court says that teachers cannot have tenure in any school ( a good thing, in my judgment) not because it has a deleterious effect on education (which many and perhaps a majority of educational theorists believe) but because it has a deleterious effect on minority students, who tend to be sent more teachers who would have been fired if it were not for tenure. I think that’s the reasoning; it’s not obvious.

Of course it may be a case of finding any stick to beat tenure with, since it is so strongly defended by the teachers unions, and so clearly to the disadvantage of everyone seeking a good education…

Warning: the following is politically incorrect.

ISIS, the naughty boys running over Iraq, are bad medicine. Too radical for Al-Qaeda: better off dead. I haven’t seen this mentioned in the news media, likely because nobody (including the Administration) really understands it, but they’d be easy to squash (with air strikes) . Easy to beat. They were more-or-less pushed out of parts of Syria (fighting against both Assad and most of the other rebel groups). They aren’t able to deal with the Kurds, but they may have to face them. And they’re working at irritating Turkey: big mistake. They’ve only got a few thousand soldiers, tops. Maliki’s army is not running away because ISIS are such demon fighters – they’d probably run away from Mickey Mouse.

A friend and I were talking about this: we were trying to estimate how many 1942 Germans it would take, using WWII weapons, to exterminate these weasels. He guessed a battalion: I was holding out for a regiment. Of course, if you did that you might get some unpleasant side effects..

G

The proper way to have an empire is to have local troops to provide the blood, while you provide the Legion if needed; and if your proconsul is any use you will not need much in the way of legions.  Herod had more soldiers than Pilate. 

The Hollywood Sci-Fi Museum is trying to raise money with a kind of kickstarter program.  https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/newstarship/hollywood-sci-fi-science-fiction-museum If you have any thoughts on donating, go find out about it.  The site is worth a few minutes to begin with.  It might become something important.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

View 828, Wednesday, June 11, 2014

John Quincy Adams on American Policy:

Whenever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.

She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.

Fourth of July, 1821

1700 Wednesday. It has been a busy day. I have seen a ton of stuff, none of it singularity making but some probably world changing in ways not so easily predicted. None of it will lead us that much closer to self-replicating computers that evolved by Lamarckian rather than Mendelian evolution.

I will be asked tonight to predict what things will be like in 2044, and I am going to say that everything I have seen here, including the stuff just in development, will almost certainly be available as an ap for whatever you are carrying for a telephone in 2044. Your pocket computer will have more than 4 terabytes of storage, and in all likelihood more than 900 terabytes. It will have 64 CPU’s each one capable of doing what your multiple CPU system does now and then some.

Some stuff like the electron microscope they hope to sell for under $1000, will need some equipment as well as the connection to your smart phone, but it won’t cost any $1000. More like $30 bucks including shipment, and only that much because you bought the deluxe model. It may well be part of a device that takes your pulse and blood pressure, and takes a blood sample, after which you instantly get your blood sugar and the other numbers, but also calls to schedule you for a prostate exam or an MRI if it thinks it has discovered some anomalies. Good luck on that if you’re dependent on VA, but maybe you’ll be smart enough to be in Kaiser, which will have an ap on your phone that looks at a whole bunch of stuff about you and scolds you for your bad diet habits.

I was rather amused by a presentation about building super regenerative receivers at the 10 micron size level. I first encountered regenerative and super regenerative circuits in high school where Brother Henry had us reading Andrew Crissell’s Understanding Radio and mucking about with circuits in the back room. I next encountered regenerative circuitry when the Air Force wanted me to put astronauts into a chamber and cook them at 400 degrees F (with an 80 F breathing air feed) while doing complex tasks. The flight surgeon demanded a medical quality EKG in real time as a condition, and in those days you did a medical quality EKG by lying down on a metal table and being restrained as they put electrodes on you and the results flowed out to moving pens which wrote on ink on moving paper. And I was to do this with an unrestrained subject in a noisy lab environment.

Out came the Boeing Engineering Analog Computers, about 50 of them, and a rack the size of a small wall. We took the signal, noise and all, that were getting from the subject, filtered out as much noise as we could, fed that as intake to the next set, and kept that up until we got a signal that the flight surgeon could read. In other words we built a big regenerative receiver. So that was roughly twenty years since I played with this stuff in Brother Henry’s back room, with vacuum tubes. Now it was transistorized BEACs. Twenty years after that if you went to hospital they harnessed you and your EKG as on display at the nurses station wherever you were in the hospital. Today it’s probably an ap for your iPhone or easily could be. So think twenty more years…

Anyway that’s what I will be talking about. Also mind/computer interfaces as I used, primitively, in Oath of Fealty (1981), and much more sophisticatedly in Starswarm, (1998). If you haven’t read them, they still hold up very well, and I can say this after being in this conference.

I’ve had a great time, I learned a lot, and it’s interesting to see where the real nanotechnology people are going and what they are doing; my experience up to now has been more with the nanotechnology fandom that sees swarms of millions of 20 nanometer bugs commanded by thought control doing their master’s bidding, while saving the earth from being turned in to green goop by runaway rapidly evolving self replicating nanobugs. That may happen, but it won’t be before 2044, and I doubt it will be before 2144. By then maybe we’ll have a handle on this stuff. Or we’ll be hit by an asteroid and it won’t matter…

TERRORISM CRISIS

Al Qaeda, in Iraq, now has U.S. military weapons http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/world/middleeast/mosul-iraq-militants-seize-us-weapons.html and over 400 million in new financing

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mosul-seized-jihadis-loot-429m-citys-central-bank-make-isis-worlds-richest-terror-force-1452190

I don’t think any comment is necessary.

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

It was foreseeable from the moment they sent in Brenner as proconsul and he disbanded the Iraqi army. It was forseeable from the moment we did not tell the Iraqi’s we were their liberators but also their conquerors and there were certain conditions … We had no need to go in there, but having done it we had some obligations to leave them stable – but that is not a condition that can be brought about through Liberal Democracy in Iraq. The conquest of Iraq was not the End of History and part of the transformation of the world into a peaceful league of liberal democracies, and those who thought it would inevitably be so were not only dead wrong, but ideologically blinded, and ignorant of history. Few of them were my readers, alas.

There are similarities to Afghanistan, but this is not the time and place for that discussion.

This is a serious matter; how will President Obama react? And how will President Putin react?

This is what collapse looks like.

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/06/10/mosul-falls-to-al-qaeda-as-us-trained-security-forces-flee/

I think it unlikely the US will commit ground forces to stop the rout; what if we were to loan the Iraqis an air force ,as we did to Kosovo in that war? I assume it is neither in our interest to see Al Queda gain greater power in Iraq nor to allow Iraq to fall deeper into Iran’s orbit.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Not bloody likely.

I applaud the ends, but deplore the means.

<http://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-teacher-lawsuit-20140611-story.html#page=1>

This is not a Federal issue, yet the legal reasoning rests upon the specious ‘disparate impact’ penumbra of the (unconstitutional, in my view) ‘equal protection’ clause of the (again, unconstitutional, in my view) Fourteenth Amendment.

——

Roland Dobbins

Agreed on both counts. Discussion when I get home.

Naming the new cyber-security building a USNA

The suggestions seem to be trending — surprise, surprise — toward Admiral Grace Hopper.

In addition to being a computational genius, Admiral Hopper was possessed of a great deal of wisdom, viz: Arrange to be told you’re too old to do something as early as possible and get it over with.

I didn’t put that in quotes because I’m reasonably sure I’m just paraphrasing her.

She also told Naval Officers to quit managing and start leading which vignette ought to be tattooed onto a sensitive body part ….

http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2014/06/you-dont-get-chance-to-name-building-at.html

Agreed. I had to follow her as a speaker. Twice. Once in San Diego and once in Karlsruh. A very tough act to follow. Amazing Grace!

Antarctica Ice Sheet Melt due to Volcano

Not climate change or global warming, but a volcano under the ice sheet that is larger than previously known. Global Warming Alarmists will ignore this story, of course.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/10/Why-the-West-Antarctic-Ice-Sheet-is-really-melting-And-no-not-climate-change

Rick Hellewell

And no climate model yet has any explanation for the Viking Warm period or the Little Ice Age. They are simply ignored. The Earth has been several degrees warmer and several degrees colder than it is now in historical times, and all this is documented. The notion that the Gulf Stream affected Greenland, the Western Scottish Islands, the Eastern Scottish Islands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, and China, all reporting longer growing seasons and earlier spring in the Viking era, is too absurd to consider seriously. Not that I expect rationality to prevail. There are too many grants at stake.

For your reading pleasure:

No kiddin’, Sherlock

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/the-dayside/freedom-and-physics-a-dayside-post?dm_i=1Y69,2IYZO,E1NJ7H,97JPO,1

JIm

Thursday AM:  packing up, get home at 2200 PDT, long day ahead.   All’s well.  It went well last night.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

View 828, Monday, June 09, 2014

John Quincy Adams on American Policy:

Whenever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.

She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.

Fourth of July, 1821

Monday Afternoon, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

The morning session of the nanotechnology conference – officially the 30^th Anniversary meeting of the Solid State Sensors, Actuators, and Microsystems Workshop – started intensely and stayed that way. Highly technical. The theme of the 1994 meeting was “When will Solid State Sensors take over the world?” The theme for this year is “Solid State Sensors have taken over the world. Where will we be in 2044?”

I was reminded of one of the early Pournelle’s Laws, “Silicon is cheaper than iron,” which caused me to predict that silicon mass storage memory would soon take over from spinning metal. After all, in those days, “mass storage” for most of us consisted of 64 K – that’s 64 Kilobyte – floppy disks. I had an early Honeywell Bull 5 megabyte hard disk; it was in a stand alone cabinet about the size of a two drawer file cabinet, and when it was turned on the house lights blinked. It seemed to me obvious that silicon memory system would soon be much faster, have more storage capacity, and be much cheaper than hard disks. Of course that didn’t happen. Silicon got cheaper, but as computer chips got cheaper and more powerful they allowed better robot control of the fabrication of spinning metal disks, and the faster software allowed much better data separation getting far more bits/mm of disk track, and soon there appeared 5” hard drives of 5, then 50, and then 300 megabyte capacity. I have a 500 Kilobyte magnetic bubble memory card from those days. It was much faster than a Winchester hard drive, but it was only half a megabyte. Now, recently, I have acquired huge capacity silicon drives which are faster than spinning metal, and the spinning metal disk is economically doomed; but it has been about 30 years since I made that prediction. I was right on the outcome of the race, but I sure didn’t expect it to take 30 years.

So now solid state sensors and actuators have taken over the world. No longer do we use the old ink needles on flowing paper to do EKG and Electro Encephalograph and such. It’s all being modernized.

My last intense and up close experience with the world of sensors was when my friend Eph Konigsberg was still alive and Konigsberg Instruments was working at the frontier of the technology. The company is still at the frontier, but I don’t know anyone there now. Eph kept me informed on what was going on in solid state sensors and the world of medical technology. I’ve lost touch since his passing, and I sure miss him.

But the world of solid state sensors – read practical nanotechnology – goes on. Oliver Paul of the University of Freiberg reported on the state of the art in sensors for brain activities. Start with the brain: 10^14 interconnections of 10^11 neurons running on 15 Watts of power. That’s what we are studying. We have 250,000 cochlear implants which do for the totally deaf what hearing aids do for the partially deaf; 130,000 spinal cord stimulators; 17,000 implanted vagus nerve stimulators. Probes get more efficient and smaller in a kind of “Moore’s Law” with a doubling time of 7.4 years. This leads to prediction of having 10^11 electrode sensors in 2240.

Of course that assumes that this is a normal exponential curve. As we showed in The Strategy of Technology, technological progress goes in ogives or S-curves.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/slowchange/Strat.html

It is not only possible, but likely, that solid state sensors (and nanotechnology in general are still in the beginning stages and have not reached the sharply rising section of the S-curve. Moore’s Law is reaching the top of the S-curve in present computer technology, as we approach limits to the number of transistors that can be put into a chip. That is clearly not the case with solid state sensors, and it is possible – some would say probable – that this new sensor technology will approach the 1.5 year doubling time we have experienced with computers. (And computer technology will probably begin a new ogive of effectiveness and lower costs).

There were many other papers, and it is clear that the entire “nanotechnology” technological field is on an S Curve with doubling time in the range of 3 to 8 years, and it is quite possible that those times will come down.

This conference has the feel of some of the early computer conferences in the 80’s. There are differences. A much larger proportion of the attendees are Orientals. There is also a larger proportion of women, both Oriental and Western. Unlike in the early computer days when girl geeks sought to look as much like guys as possible, and wore jeans and tennis shoes and baggy sweaters, these women dress like women, most quite fashionably. There are more skirts than trousers, and as many high heels as flats and sandals. The days of blending in by dressing like guys is gone, I suspect much to the relief of guys and dolls alike. And of course several of the papers were presented by women team leaders, several in skirts and heels. None of which detracts from the serious nature of the conference and the subject. Apparently in the highly technical world of nanotechnology a real degree of equality of the sexes has been achieved; at least that’s my observation from having been around in the early days of the computer revolution, and now this conference.

I have little doubt that the effect of these people on society will be as great as the computer revolution has been on the old society prior to the eighties. Not just in prosthetics, where a good deal of effort is concentrated just now. The old methods of trying to “read thoughts” have been given a new start with the new technologies. I have used “computer implants” in several of my science fiction stories, notably Starswarm and Oath of Fealty ; I always imagined that such things would be possible, although I did not know or try to predict just what technologies would lead to their implementation. It’s still not clear which technology will prevail, but it is becoming clear that a human/computer interface at least as good as described in Oath of Fealty and probably as good as in Starswarm will happen, perhaps as soon as 2044. Or so I have been persuaded by the progress papers I have seen so far.

For those looking toward future careers, I can say that this field of nanotechnology — Solid State Sensors, Actuators, and Microsystems – has much of the excitement and ferment of the early days of the computer revolution and I think a very great potential. People are going to get rich out of this, and others will have great scientific achievements. Some will have both, but not all; but that’s another story for another time. There will be no lack of employment for those able to do the technical work; not just research grants, but commercial product development. Think Silicon Valley starting up again.

And now it’s time for a walk. I have no idea what’s going on in the outside world. The isolation here is complete. I could spoil all that by getting the Wall Street Journal on line, but I think I will wait to do that until after I have walked on the beach.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.