The Wind, The Lion, and The Legend

View 741 Wednesday, September 12, 2012

On September 11, 2012, there were terrorist attacks on US diplomatic facilities in Cairo and in Benghazi, and the US ambassador to Libya was killed. At some point prior to the attack in Cairo the US Embassy issued an official apology of some sorts for an American made movie released months ago without fanfare and apparently without much in the way of viewership. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-libya-usa-hezbollahbre88b0sp-20120912,0,63276.story The quality of the film is said to be low and the acting something less than professional.

There are multiple and conflicting reports concerning the origin and financing of the movie, and some question whether the attacks were preplanned and coordinated, or merely spontaneous outbreaks happening coincidentally.

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A few random thoughts inspired by today’s radio and TV headlines.

The Charlton Heston movie, 55 Days at Peking. It was hokey, and it reflects the prejudices of the time (1963). Of course anything we see today reflects the prejudices of the times (2012).

This government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead. Of course the real story of the Raisuli affair isn’t as impressive as it became in literature http://www.americanheritage.com/content/%E2%80%9Cperdicaris-alive-or-raisuli-dead%E2%80%9D?page=2 or the movie it – inspired is too strong a word, suggested is probably more appropriate – The Wind and the Lion.

Do you print the truth or the legend? The legend is often a great deal more memorable – and sometimes conveys a stronger lesson.

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And for some reason I was reminded of

The Dane-Geld

Rudyard Kipling

A.D. 980-1016

IT is always a temptation to an armed and agile nation
To call upon a neighbour and to say:–
"We invaded you last night–we are quite prepared to fight,
Unless you pay us cash to go away."

And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you’ve only to pay ’em the Dane-geld
And then you’ll get rid of the Dane!

It is always a temptation to a rich and lazy nation,
To puff and look important and to say:–
"Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away."

And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we’ve proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say:–

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
Nor matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!"

Of course we would have to borrow the money to pay Dane-Geld to anyone.

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Are we safer on September 12, 2012 than we were on September 12, 2008?

That is a far more complicated question, and involves both truth and legends, since the legends often have more influence over mass behavior than the truth.

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"This was a well- planned, well-targeted event. No doubt about it."

<http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/international/american_ambassador_others_killed_uvtJF2mvUd6CzlMsrh169K>

Roland Dobbins

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Black Sea Fleet, The Road to Serfdom, and a large mixed mail bag

Mail 741 Tuesday, September 11, 2012

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‘It remains unclear how or why the Democratic Party used what’s believed to be images of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at their convention.’

<http://www.navytimes.com/mobile/news/2012/09/navy-russian-warships-displayed-dnc-veterans-tribute-091112>

Roland Dobbins

It’s the little things that embarrass you most

Dr. Pournelle —

Perhaps you saw this. File under "Oops".

Navy Times: Russian ships displayed at DNC tribute to vets

http://www.navytimes.com/mobile/news/2012/09/navy-russian-warships-displayed-dnc-veterans-tribute-091112

"But the fact they are Russian ships is not in doubt. In addition to the ship’s radar arrays and hulls, which are dissimilar from U.S. warships, the photo features one more give-away: a large white flag with a blue ‘X’ at the ships’ sterns.

Polmar, who authored “The Naval Institute Guide to the Soviet Navy,” recognized the blue ‘X’-mark: “The X is the Cross of St. Andrew’s, which is a Russian Navy symbol,” Polmar said. (An anchored U.S. warship, by contrast, flies the American flag on its stern.)"

I’m thinking this is taking inclusivity and diversity a little too far.

Pieter

I am not sure any comment is needed. Thanks.

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CoDominium Is Here!

From Instapundit:

http://www.professorbainbridge.com/professorbainbridgecom/2012/09/was-pournelle-prescient.html

George Fallenbeck

Not here yet, perhaps, but you can see the origin. See also Coming Apart by Murray. The elite no longer preach what they practive…

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‘The U.S. is now on the verge of a symbolic threshold: the point at which more than half of all American households receive and accept transfer benefits from the government.’

<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444914904577619671931313542.html>

Roland Dobbins

See previous item…

Grievous bodily harm.

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9516776/Farm-tenant-arrested-after-burglars-shot-was-plagued-by-break-ins.html>

Roland Dobbins

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Guess the U.S. and Canada have bureaucracy in common – following is something a friend picked up

A lesson in irony..

The Food Bank Program, administered by Social Welfare Canada, is actually proud of the fact it is distributring the greatest amount of free meals and food vouchers ever.

Meanwhile, the National Park Service, adminstered by the Canada Parks and Natural Resources, asks us to "Please Do Not Feed the Animals."

Their stated reason for the policy is because the animals will grow dependent on handouts and will not learn to take care of themselves

Gordon Seddon

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SUBJECT: The Assault on Reason

Hi Jerry.

Commentary on current political discourse and (in Canada in particular) behavior of the government.

http://allangregg.com/?p=80

Cheers,

Mike Casey

Reason is always under assault…

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Vox populi

Jerry,

I found both the ramrodding of the Democrat voice vote, AND the fact that it was not unambiguously 2/3 in favor of the change, to be equally disturbing.

But there are a lot of religious conservative rural Democrats, and Catholics nationwide, who haven’t yet abandoned the party of their parents and grandparents (and in my case, to the fourth and fifth generation). The "abortion and contraception forever and free" aspect of the convention, combined with the widespread portrayal of that video without any spin other than the raw truth, is likely to shake a significant number of them out of the Democrat party.

Probably not my cousin the rural southern Baptist minister who has apparently proclaimed, "if Jesus Christ returned as a Republican, I’d still vote for the Democrats" (to the dismay of his family and parishioners, even the Democrats among them), but still…

I’ll also note that from my peripheral review of the subject, support for "choice" has shifted from a bare majority to a bare minority in the polls I’ve seen since 2008 and Sarah Palin’s familial choice of life for her young son and first grandson vs. the bitter attacks she suffered from the "pro-choice" fanatics for choosing life in those circumstances.

Meanwhile, another correspondent has brought to my attention that the 0.2 drop in unemployment announced this morning was accompanied by another decrease of 300,000 people from the labor pool. Thus continues the manipulation by mathematics…

Jim

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Let me see, didn’t I read about planets like this…

…in a three-book series you wrote? (Fourth book coming Real Soon Now…):

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-285&cid=release_2012-285

"One of the unexpected revelations of planet hunting has been that many planets travel in very oblong, eccentric orbits that vary greatly in distance from their stars.

"’Planets like these may spend some, but not all of their time in the habitable zone,’ Kane said. ‘You might have a world that heats up for brief periods in between long, cold winters, or you might have brief spikes of very hot conditions.’"

Maybe they should name one of these planets "Tran"…not exactly the same mechanism (i.e., no dwarf companion for the main sun) but the same principle of cyclical climate.

CAPT Chris

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Cyborg Cockroaches

Dr. Pournelle —

Fascinating – but creepy and scary, too. A scene in a new story, maybe?

Cyborg Cockroaches Could be Future Emergency Responders

http://www.livescience.com/23016-remote-controlled-cyborg-roaches.html

"Researchers say they’ve figured out a way to create cyborg, remote-controlled cockroaches, hoping one day the resilient creatures could be steered into disaster zones to gather information and look for survivors.

Video footage from the experiments at North Carolina State University shows the part-robot raoches being directed along a curving path via remote control. The researchers say they attached a lightweight chip with a wireless receiver and transmitter onto Madagascar hissing cockroaches and wired a microcontroller to the insects’ antennae and cerci — the sensory organs on the bug’s abdomen that cause it to run away from danger."

– or new surveillance technique or, … . The real world gets stranger than fiction every day.

Pieter

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Another agency with armed agents.

Sent to you by BobK via Google Reader:

No, The Social Security Administration Is Not Arming for a Rebellion <http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheAtlanticWire/~3/_UgBNkYTsiA/story01.htm>

via The Atlantic Wire <http://www.theatlanticwire.com/> by Adam Martin on 9/4/12

As they often are, the conspiracy theories swirling around the Social Security Administration’s request for bids to provide 174,000 bullets <http://www.infowars.com/social-security-administration-to-purchase-174-thousand-rounds-of-hollow-point-bullets/> were so much more interesting than the explanation. The Associated Press brought the pedestrian news on Tuesday <http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNYAOHYMsAaQaxuxegtPrcXrEC-Q?docId=775b212be3f64596b3cb3b81cebefedc> that the agency was buying the bullets to supply its Office of Inspector General, which employs 295 law enforcement agents, "who carry guns and make arrests." The agents investigate social security fraud, carrying out search warrants and responding to threats against the administration. They arrested 589 people last year, AP reports. "Agents carry .357 caliber pistols, [IG spokesman Jonathan L.] Lasher said. The bullets, which add up to about 590 per agent, are for the upcoming fiscal year. Most will be expended on the firing range."

Compare that commonplace explanation with Infowars’ suggestion <http://www.infowars.com/social-security-administration-to-purchase-174-thousand-rounds-of-hollow-point-bullets/> that "the Social Security Administration is purchasing the bullets as part of preparations for civil unrest," or the Daily Caller’s hyperventilating guess that SSA and other seemingly non-law-enforcement federal agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were arming themselves to put down a widespread uprising. Terrifying! And completely unfounded. Just to save everybody the trouble when the NOAA puts in its next request for supplies, let it be known that that agency, too, has a law enforcement wing <http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/ole/ole_about.html> . This is like a lesson in government agencies, one conspiracy theory at a time.

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Jerry,

Obama’s 1995 mortgage discrimination lawsuit paved way for housing crisis

http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/03/with-landmark-lawsuit-barack-obama-pushed-banks-to-give-subprime-loans-to-chicagos-african-americans/

I had not heard this before. I knew the crisis was generated by government pressure to loan money to people who should not be borrowing it.

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Niven interview

Jerry,

I’m pretty sure you have already seen this, but passing it on just in case.

http://thefreehold.us/?p=877

Al

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Measurements indicating global warming is happening faster than expected

Hi Jerry,

It’s interesting to me that frequently when an announcement disputing global warning comes in you are told about it, but seldom do you get told of events supporting GW.

Sometimes the article you are told about is pretty light on credibility – the ones attributing heating/cooling to cosmic rays affecting cloud formation are memorable here, as (a) the point at which infrared photons exit the earth is high above clouds in the stratosphere, (b) the exit level is controlled by CO2 et al., and (c) there have _been_ no measured fluctuation in cosmic rays. You assume the supplier has done good-old-fashioned fact-checking before sending it on to you, but I fear that’s sometimes missing.

Getting to the point, in the last few months there have been at least 3 independent, solid global observations that are solid evidence for GW, plus a set of pretty strong hints in US and global records, and yet not a single note has been sent on to you.

Case in point: one of the most incredible new stories (that didn’t hit the news) this month has been the blowing away of arctic ice, as illustrated here: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ . Ice volume, which we are just getting a handle on measuring well, is the most shocking: over the last 10 years or so we have been losing a pretty solid 900 cubic kilometers per year, (it is thought to have started out at about 13-15,000 in the Fifties) with the rate of loss increasing each year. This year the Arctic will possibly dropdown to a scant 3000 cubic km. (source: PIOMAS) If the same rate continues, we will be down to 0 cubic kilometers in 4, possibility 3 years, *certainly* in 6. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

It seems the climate scientists who forecast an ice-free arctic in 2100 were very wrong, but in the wrong direction.

What do you think of these observations and the projected effect on the jet-stream and US weather from the additional stored heat when this happens?

Ken Rushton

I think that there were dairy farms in Greenland in Viking times, and that the Northwest Passage has been open more than once in the past millennia. And I still think I would rather be too warm than under a kilometer of ice.

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‘And then there’s the part of the story the Reuters piece doesn’t address: According to other reports, Zimmerman’s gun was loaded with hollow-point bullets — bullets that expand upon impact, maximizing internal damage and the chances of death. You don’t need hollow-point bullets to stop a pit bull. And you don’t need hollow-point bullets to stop a robber.’

<http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/04/george-zimmermans-ammunition/256509/>

Roland Dobbins

Well, that’s illuminating…

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Comment on "how real is science"

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I thought I understood Mr. Harry M. when he begin his comment on the role of science being subverted by agendas other than the search for truth. Then Mr. M. went on to make comments that sounded like he was saying science is attempting to replace religion.

From what little I know of the scientific method, I know that it can only be used on things that can be tested in the physical world.

Given that understanding there is never going to be a possibility of science explaining things that can not be tested in the physical world.

Religion, whether you have one or not, and whether you believe in it or not, is largely concerned with things that can not be tested in the physical world.

Science can study the effects of religion on a society or an individual but it can not legitimately study whether the beliefs of those with a particular religion are true or false. This makes me think that anyone claiming science is trying to subvert religion is using that claim as a straw man and seeking to gain publicity by that claim.

I also noted the mention of book with the title of "The God Particle". It is my understanding that the book on the Higgs Boson was actually going to be named "The God Damned Particle" in reference to current particle accelerators inability to produce evidence of said particle.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20120727/letters/The-Higgs-particle.430277

I heard the name of the book was shortened to avoid offending those whose religion forbids certain combinations of words and letters. This is one example of several someones taking a book title completely out of context and building a straw man they can poke the stuffing out of.

The reference to how valid scientific papers are by the speaker Dr. John Patrick points out several valid points in regards to people not being truthful due to personal needs that are not met by the truth. Dr. Patrick makes some interesting points about the ability of religion to set a standard of moral values that can later guide people to do the right thing even if their personal needs do not get met. He also raises the idea of tacit awareness and its power to predict, in some cases, the outcome of an experiment. Dr. Patrick implies that without religious training that instills proper morals there are no checks or balances on the validity of scientific papers. For some reason I thought scientific papers had to be reviewed and their assertions tested by other members of the scientific community before they were accepted. Am I wrong in that thought?

People are, after all people. We all have our opinions and we all like to protect our world from invasions of thought that might make us have to work a little harder.

The scientific method is a tool to try and discern truth in the testable physical world. It is a valuable tool when used for its intended purposes. It is also like using a screwdriver to pound in a nail when used for purposes that it was never intended to be used for.

In short, I do not find the assertion that science is not real as valid. I do find people jousting at science and at religion using a number of straw men to try and garner publicity.

Sincerely,

David P. Zimmerman

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Hello Jerry,

Harry M. requested commentary on his question: "How real is science?"

In his piece he noted that both climate scientists and Darwinists are noted for practicing ‘the politics of personal destruction’ when the axioms which pass for science in their fields are questioned.

I think that this would be a fine occasion for Harry to read Fred Reed’s column: "Fredwin on Evolution" , found here:

http://www.fredoneverything.net/EvolutionMonster.shtml

if he hasn’t already.

I think that he would enjoy it. I do. Every time I read it.

Bob Ludwick

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You asked, "Does grammar matter?"

This question was answered to my satisfaction by Richard Mitchell in his many books and essays.

In particular, Mitchell’s "Why Good Grammar"

concludes with

"Good grammar," in the fullest sense of the term, is neither an embellishment nor an accessory to anything else. It is the Law by which meaning is found and made. It may be, of course, that a good "education" ought to provide something more, but it is preposterous, perhaps even wicked, to suggest that it can be had with anything less.

http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/the-booklets/2.htm

<http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/the-booklets/2.htm>

Mitchell’s theme quote is from Ben Johnson:

Neither can his mind be thought to be in tune,

whose words do jarre;

Nor his reason in frame,

whose sentence is preposterous;

– Ben Johnson, Discoveries, 1641

(This can be found in more complete form at http://www.molenda.com/under-grammar/full-quote.html <http://www.molenda.com/under-grammar/full-quote.html> )

Mitchell was widely known for his newsletter "The Underground Grammarian," which he published for many years when he was a professor at Glassboro State Teachers College, now Rowan University, in New Jersey. In it he quoted materials distributed by academics on his campus and others, and then he took apart those writings line by line and word by word.

Thus, besides being useful, his books are absolutely hilarious.

His four books, the newsletter, and other booklets and writings are available for free at http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/index.html <http://www.sourcetext.com/grammarian/index.html> .

Best regards,

–Harry M.

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Anniversaries and progress.

View 741 Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Happy Birthday Sable

This is Sable’s tenth birthday. Sable is our red Siberian Husky. She’s had a knee rebuilt, but you would never know that, and she acts like a dog half her age, even in hot weather. Husky dogs are great companions, but they do insist on going for a walk, and when they decide they are entitled to something they make that known. Unmistakably.

I’m still working on a pile of necessary administrivia. I’m still recovering from something debilitating, but I am getting some work done.

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The Prime Minister of Israel has requested a meeting with the President of the United States, but the President’s office has announced that the President’s busy schedule will not permit the meeting. http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Obama-Schedule-Won-t-Allow-Meeting-With-3857175.php They just won’t be in the same city at the same time, according to the White House. There are reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu has offered to come to Washington, and Reuters reports that the refusal to meet is a snub. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/11/us-israel-iran-netanyahu-idUSBRE88A10B20120911

The US embassy in Cairo is said to be under siege. Three US citizens were killed in an attack on a US diplomatic convoy in the Gaza area. The US is said to be apologizing for a film said to be insulting to the Prophet Muhammad. http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/09/after-attack-us-embassy-in-cairo-apologizes-for-unspecified-135222.html The President of the US does not have time to meet the Prime Minister of Israel.

There is considerable pressure on the White House to reverse this decision.

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It is now eleven years since the 9/11 attack and the US declaration of war on terror. We have established the TSA and the Department of Homeland Security. We sent armies to Iraq and Afghanistan.

We did not start a massive campaign to achieve energy independence for the United States. That, we were told, would have cost too much. We were told that the invasion of the Middle East would cost $300 billion, although it might run higher than that. At the time I pointed out that $500 Billion would have been enough to build one hundred 1,000 megawatt nuclear power plants and begin a massive space program for construction of space solar power plants; and there would still be enough left over to cover the administrative costs for a great expansion of US oil wells and refineries (which would mostly be paid for by private capital). I was told that these programs would cost more than $500 Billion; I agreed, but it was pretty clear that the wars would cost a great deal more.

Money invested in energy production facilities has the prospect for some return on investment. Money invested in military operations in Iraq had the possibility of a return on investment in oil production but apparently that was not a goal of the invasion; I can think of no possible return on investment from a long term engagement in Afghanistan, which manufactures nothing we want and grows what we don’t want. Once we demonstrated to the Taliban that it was not a good idea to harbor the enemies of the United States, there was little to be gained in staying in Afghanistan.

Both major political parties assert than we are safer now than we were in September, 2001.

I was no great fan of the policies of Mr. Bush, but I will state that we were safer on 9-11-2008 than we are on 9-11-2012.

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New York on 9/11/01 from the ISS

Jerry,

Given that you are both a science fiction writer and an engineer, I thought that for today it is good to remember that horrible day from the view of the ISS and its commander.

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

New York, 9/11/2001 from the ISS

<http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/583025main_iss003e5387_full.jpg>

and

Expedition Three Commander Frank Culbertson (CAPT, USN retired) Letter from September 11, 9/11/01 <http://www.nasa.gov/topics/nasalife/features/sept11_culbertson.html>

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For those interested in popular technology, I can recommend http://tirania.org/blog/archive/2012/Aug-29.html on what happened to desktop Linux.

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Have I gone mad?

View 741 Monday, September 10, 2012

I have been under the weather for a week, but I am recovering. Thanks to all who were concerned.

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The election drags on. The Democrats managed to restore God but not Divine Providence to their platform, but just barely, and if you watched the event they probably didn’t – they certainly didn’t get any 2/3 majority, and it sounded to me as if there were as many ‘no’ votes as well as boos as there were ayes. Of course the amendment covered both restoring “God given” talents and Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and which one was so unpopular as to inspire no votes and boos is not entirely clear.

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Chicago teachers strike for higher pay. According to Drudge and other sources, they are the highest paid teachers in the country – I’d have thought that California had that distinction but perhaps not. The schools were sort of open in that free breakfast was served to a bunch of kids already on food stamps, but perhaps that has been misreported. Meanwhile the LA teachers are upset about a free breakfast program: apparently requiring the children to get to school early enough to have a free breakfast in the cafeteria didn’t get enough turnout, so the LA school district is now serving breakfast in the classrooms. This gets more kids taking their free breakfast — a lot more showed up for that – but upsets the teachers who are faced with the residue and the lost teaching time.

I must have misunderstood all this. Perhaps my summer cold has driven me out of my mind.

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I am inundated with minor chores, some pleasurable – I have to take some signed contracts to the Post Office – and I haven’t a lot of energy, but I am recovering. Thanks to all who have been patient. And I’ll try to do a big mail bag tonight.

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In reading this over I seem to have left out the most important message: Don’t Panic. It’s still the silly season. There is a strong move on the part of one party to make the whole thought of the election disgusting so that people will simply stop paying attention. This gives the biggest advantage to those who have professionalized election politics.

Machiavelli described much of this five hundred years ago.

Self government requires that the governed take some part in government. Freedom is not free.

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