A good fourth. A good hike. And go read Ortega; and the DNS attack

View 731 Thursday, July 05, 2012

I hope you had a good Fourth. We stayed home, joined by my son Alex and his wife, and by Larry and Marilyn Niven. Then today Niven and I went up the hill.

For reflections on the Fourth see https://statelymcdanielmanor.wordpress.com/ 

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In digging for something else I came across this:

Ortega y Gasset’s “Revolt”

and the Problem of Mass Rule

E. Robert Statham, Jr.

http://www.mmisi.org/ma/46_03/statham.pdf

It is not a substitute for reading Ortega’s Revolt of the Masses which is one of those books that every civilized person should read as part of his education, but it is a good exposition on Ortega’s thesis. It will seem quite alien to many. Ortega, after all, said in answer to the charge that he was in favor of aristocracy said that he was guilty of much more than that: he believed that societies were societies to the extent that they were aristocratic, and if they ceased to be aristocratic they ceased to be societies. The Revolt of the Masses is why he holds that view. This essay in Modern Age – a journal founded by my mentor Russell Kirk. One of his collaborators in the founding of Modern Age was Kenneth Cole who was my professor at the University of Washington. If you’re looking for some heavy reading, this essay is worth your time. And if you haven’t read Ortega, put him on your list. You should.

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It’s late, and it was a strenuous trip up the hill. I went to the LASFS meeting after dinner, and it’s very much time for bed now. More another time. LASFS will have a memorial meeting in memory of member Ray Bradbury this Saturday at 2 PM. A number of people who knew Ray will be there. The Los Angeles Science Fantasy Society has a tradition: death will not release you, even if you die; which is why I say member rather than ‘former’ member. Ray would agree. I’ll tell a couple of my Bradbury stories. Others will tell even better ones.

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Larry and Marilyn Niven, and alas my old shed needs painting worse than I thought. Sable is negotiating for anything Marilyn didn’t eat. Viking dogs don’t beg, they negotiate…

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It got hot on the trail today. Sable sees a big handsome Husky Malamute coming up the hill.

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I got this on another conference. Then a Pentagon contact told me his IT guy told him to check his computer

In case you haven’t heard, come Monday, the FBI is going to take down a DNS server safety net that could leave thousands (or more) U.S. internet users without internet access. This is not a hoax, it’s a real thing.
If you have not gotten your computers checked for the malware, please go to this link ASAP (http://www.dcwg.org) and do so. Otherwise, you risk being offline until you can get your computer fixed.

That got me asking my security experts about it, and Rick Hellewell has this to say:

True….somewhat overhyped, but true. See msnbc story here http://www.technolog.msnbc.msn.com/technology/technolog/malware-may-knock-thousands-internet-monday-864024

Facebook and Google users may have already gotten warnings. But that link is a good place to check; it’s run by the FBI.

..Rick…

Eric Pobirs expands:

From the descriptions I’ve read it’s very unlikely for an actively used machine to be infected and the user unaware. The malware was usually accompanied by other items that did obnoxious stuff like ad popups. I strongly suspect the estimated 350,000 infected systems are rarely used directly and things like monitoring systems checked by remote access or machines that have been left running and completely forgotten.

http://www.dns-ok.us/

This site, link provided by the DCWG.ORG site, appears to be a simple and painless test.

I wonder though, if instead of shutting everything down on the substitute DNS servers, if they should spend a day or so redirecting anything that talks to them from a web browser to a page saying YOU ARE INFECTED in big text and linking to the DCWG site. Perhaps they have and I just missed the mention.

Eric

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Sir James Lovelock; the Roberts decision and the coming election; education, aristocracy, and The Revolt of the Masses; and more.

Mail 731 Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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I will open with this in a spirit of fairness:

Canadian Crude

Dear Jerry:

Reading your header , " Gaia guru derides Warmist believers; <https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=8162> my eyes rolled skyward before beginning to search the page for the National Inquirer masthead.

It turned out instead to be the Toronto Sun, which has a lot in common with its London namesake If you want to know what James Lovelock thinks , there are better ways to find out than letting one newspaper edit what he had to say to another, especially when the subject is oil , and the second hand journalism is cut to fit the taste of Canada’s tar patch.

Here’s a link to the full transcript of what Sir James actually said, as opposed to Charles Brumbelow’s take on the wishful thinking of Watts Up with That.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/jun/15/james-lovelock-fracking-greens-climate

It appeared under the no less interesting title,

James Lovelock on shale gas and the problem with the Greens

Russell Seitz

Well, my headline did go further than Sir James’ text, but I will plead that my exaggeration is mild compared to those of the True Believers.

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Roberts

Hi Jerry,

Your analysis is the best I’ve seen to explain why Roberts did what he did, and I agree that this election is critically important.

I just wish we were running Reagan and not Romney. We sorely need a statesman with grand vision (not just the guy who’s turn it is) right now.

Cheers,

Doug

You are hardly alone in wishing that we had Mr. Reagan instead of Romney. But wishing will not make it so. We must play the hand we have been dealt. Mr. Romney won the primary. I was not thrilled with his attacks on my friend Newt Gingrich, but I never had a hope that Newt would win in the first place. Romney has been through every mill there is. He remains the most solidly states rights candidate other than the governor of Texas, and that is one big plus. He is more Mormon than Establishment, and self-reliance is strong among Mormons. So is states rights.

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Health care gloom

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

A bit more serious than the last email, but I wish to direct your attention to the following two articles.

http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2012/07/03/romney-puts-that-sleeping-giant-back-to-sleep/?cxntfid=blogs_jay_bookman_blog

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/07/03/the-truth-it-hurts/

I share their concern. Romney’s criticism of Obamacare has been muted. I have a nasty suspicion that "repeal and replace" simply means "make a symbolic vote, make some cosmetic changes, then continue with Obamacare with a shiny new ‘Romneycare’ label". Sort of like what they do on cars when they turn a Chevrolet into a Cadillac by changing the hood ornament.

Or do we truly expect the author of Romneycare to be anxious to undo something that closely resembles his signature achievement?

My concern is that there is insufficient fire in the belly of Republicans in power to repeal Obamacare even if they do get all three branches in November. ‘Compassionate Conservatism’ or something similar is more likely.

Do you have any suggestions? The only one I can think of is ‘light a fire under the Republicans running for office’.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

The key is what kind of majority Romney gets. If it is clear that the Republicans owe their win to the tea party, then non-establishment Republicans will have far more influence than if the Republicans think they are winning on their charm and merits. Since most of them are terrified, a shift in the leadership can be important. We’ve been through all this before. The Reagan/Ford primary election that resulted in Carter is in some senses the predecessor of the 2010 election.

As to Romneycare, I have never heard him suggest that what was correct and constitutional for a state is either constitutional or desirable as a federal program; and I have often heard him say that Romneycare was never intended as a federal program. Why impute to him a desire to implement something that he has repeatedly said was a state matter and has never proposed for national implementation?

The conservative cause is not going magically to take control of the government no matter what happens; but I would rather negotiate with the Republican establishment than with the Democrat establishment.

I do not pretend that the situation is not desperate. Mr. Roberts has made it so, whether deliberately or for some other reason. (I will not accept that he has lost his senses.) This election will be a referendum on entitlements. I think the Republicans will win, because Obama care is not popular; but for the conservatives to win we need to turn out every sympathizer we have. We must be seen to have finally decided to act. Those who want self government must make some effort at governing themselves.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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‘This means that Chief Justice Roberts is right. There is no short cut to reforming the welfare state and ending its reign of injustice and oppression. It must be accomplished through the expression of the American popular will.’

<http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/07/roberts_hands_a_poisoned_chalice_to_the_president.html>

Roland Dobbins

Madison made it very clear. You cannot have a special institution designed to protect the rights and liberties of the people. Qui custodiet and all that. Kemal Ataturk thought to entrust the liberties of the Turkish people to his comrades in arms, and made the Army the guardian of Turkey as a secular state. They did that remarkably well for four generations, but it is unlikely that this will continue. Timocracy is viable but it generally will not last.

The liberties of the American people are entrusted to the whole of the people. Courts can delay, courts can warn, or, as with the Warren Court, they can be something to fear. But liberty must be won continually; it is not something you can win once and go back to sleep. As we are finding more and more.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free. And eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. Those clichés were once more than clichés and slogans; they were learned in the cradle and nurtured in grade school. We have forgotten them, and for some they are corny old clichés. They are not. They are the axioms of liberty.

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Hello, Jerry –

So, according to Justice Roberts, ObamaCare is a tax. OK, I’l buy that. What,exactly, is being taxed?

My understanding of direct/indirect taxation is that a direct tax is one levied on property, while an indirect is one levied on the transfer of property (or wealth). In the case of health insurance, it seems unlikely that this would be an indirect tax, since the point of insurance is that you pay your premium even if you received no benefits.

If ObamaCare is then a direct tax, why is it not subject to the apportionment requirement, and so invalid in its present form?

Regards,

Jim Martin

What Mr. Roberts is trying to tell you is that such matters are important only if you believe in the Constitution; and the Court can only prevent the political branches of government from doing as they will for so long. He says he can no longer protect us from the consequences of our political actions. For things like the apportionment requirement to be important you must first decide that such legalisms are more important than compassion and entitlement.

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Subj: Ray Bradbury: "Reagan was our greatest president"

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/kevinglass/2012/06/06/recentlypassed_ray_bradbury_reagan_was_our_greatest_president

I recall rereading the book publication of Bradbury’s essay "Apollo, the Sun Goes Out," arguing for the continuation of the space program instead of canceling it to pay for welfare programs; it has been a subtle influence on my life and thought ever since. So I can’t say I’m surprised. It appears to have originally been published in the LA Times, 17 May 1972. (The reprint was published in Perry Rhodan 18, Ace Books, 1972). But while I think I’ve seen it on the web in the past, it doesn’t turn up on a web search now, so there are probably no legitimate copies out there.

Some of his thoughts which went into that essay are captured here:

http://www.astronautix.com/articles/iftndies.htm

Yes. Ray was too thoroughly entwined with the Hollywood establishment to be very open politically, and he talked politics very quietly and confidentially. He had a lot at stake. But he was also very much pro space exploration.

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Political campaign lost, knowledge won…

http://lewrockwell.com/kwiatkowski/kwiatkowski286.html

"Having completed a political campaign, and lost, I’ve gained a new awareness of the nature and vulnerabilities of incumbent politicians in the current era of American national socialism. More importantly, I’ve glimpsed the unlimited possibilities and glorious impact of individual decisions to challenge the illusion of central authority and to live free, by no man’s leave and as we wish."

Charles Brumbelow

I’ve won campaigns and I have lost campaigns. I was a county chairman in the Goldwater presidential election (and we did carry the state for George Murphy but not for Goldwater) and I was manager of Barry Goldwater Junior’s first and successful campaign for Congress.

Freedom is not free, and there is always a campaign.

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Apple and the Strategy of Technology

Dear Jerry,

After reading the article you linked about McNamara and the Strategy of Technology, I was struck by a thought. For fifteen years Apple has conducted the commercial equivalent of a Strategy of Technology. They understand that technology is a stream, and they seek to swim with it. They perfect their logistics and operations, but only in the service of their strategy, and that strategy is based on a similar understanding of technology to SoT.

The three of you wrote: "To make the enemy counter each move you make, and dance to your tune, is the aim of a Technological War strategy."

I think that’s a fair summary of life at Google, Microsoft, RIM, Nokia, Samsung, Asus etc. recently. I wait to see what happens next. (And at least in commercial competition, the fallout is only metaphorical.)

Steve Setzer

An insightful observation. Thank you.

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Subj: Charles Murray: The BA is a Work of the Devil

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/06/more-reasons-why-i-think-the-ba-is-the-work-of-the-devil/

>>As long as the piece of paper called a BA remains the emblem of educational success, it will lead to colleges and community colleges that collude with students to provide that piece of paper without regard to anything that is learned. …<<

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

As usual, Murray is very much worth reading. I am working on several essays on what to do about the education crisis, but that involves understanding what education is. Most people can never be ‘educated’ in the true sense of the word; yet civilization depends on their being a core of educated and influential men and women.

Any discussion of education must also include Ortega y Gasset, Revolt of the Masses, and its implications.

“we distinguished the excellent man from the common man by saying that the former is the one who makes great demands on himself, and the latter the one who makes no demands on himself, but contents himself with what he is, and is delighted with himself. Contrary to what is usually thought, it is the man of excellence, and not the common man who lives in essential servitude. Life has no savour for him unless he makes it consist in service to something transcendental. Hence he does not look upon the necessity of serving as an oppression. When, by chance, such necessity is lacking, he grows restless and invents some new standard, more difficult, more exigent, with which to coerce himself. This is life lived as a discipline — the noble life. Nobility is defined by the demands it makes on us — by obligations, not by rights. Noblesse oblige. ‘To live as one likes is plebeian; the noble man aspires to order and law’ (Goethe) (quoted in http://pypaik.wordpress.com/2010/09/23/ortega-y-gassets-defense-of-elitism/)

And from years ago:

Hamilton, the bastard son of a Scots peddler, would have been content to have an hereditary Senate, and primogeniture, and in general the trappings and makings of aristocracy in the United States of the Framers. And Ortega y Gasset said that a civilization is a civilization only so long as it is aristocratic. Most people find the rather mobile aristocracy of the later British Empire, especially after the reforms of Macaulay, to have been one of its more admirable points: it wasn’t that they were all virtuous, in the old sense of the Four Cardinal Virtues, but that they aspired to be, and admired that kind of virtue — and admitted that there were virtues, which our present day equalitarian society does not, lest we discover that they are not as wide spread as we like, and we have to pass judgment on someone.

Prudence, Temperance, Courage, and Justice: if the British aristocracy that perished in the Boer war and then in The Great War did not all exhibit those virtues, they all admired them and found them desirable. Even Flashman finds himself being virtuous despite himself…

If we cannot be a republic, then the aristocratic empire of the Widow of Windsor may be what we must aspire to. What other models do we have? (Sparta, perhaps: an idealized Sparta was the founding myth of my Empire of Man in the series you mention; for those interested, The Prince  clip_image004is relevant.)

But recall that my CoDominium series was intended as a warning…

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail227.html#Sunday

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Subject: SCOTUS Ruling Means Bigger, More Intrusive IRS

http://www.foxbusiness.com/government/2012/06/29/scotus-ruling-means-bigger-more-intrusive-irs/?intcmp=fbfeatures

It certainly will if Obama wins the November election. If the Republicans win, that will not be so.

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Thought you might enjoy this.

http://www.duffelblog.com/2012/07/starcraft-game-added-to-officer-training-curriculum-offers-realistic-leadership-simulation/

DM

David March

Indeed. Thanks.

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There is no silver lining. And we still don’t know what’s in the bill.

View 731 Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Roberta has an appointment for an eye exam that includes dilation so I’ll have to drive her. This will be short.

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The storm over Mr. Chief Justice Roberts decision continues. There seems to be a lot of misunderstanding, and much talk of “silver linings” and others denouncing those who see “silver linings.” I am not privy to Mr. Roberts’ thinking, but I think those looking for silver linings are mistaken: this was not Mr. Roberts being the conservative Chief Justice standing in the way of the political departments as they rush the nation toward the end of the Constitutional Republic as we know it; this is Mr. Roberts in a cry of despair proclaiming that conservatives can no longer rely on the Supreme Court to save the people from the consequences of their political decisions.

What Mr. Roberts has seen is that a law so badly framed that it has internal contradictions and which mandates colossal new taxes while handing over nearly 20% of the national economy to federal bureaucrats has passed the House and Senate and has been signed by a President who purports to be an expert on Constitutional Law by dint of having been a lecturer on the subject at the University of Chicago as well as the President of the Harvard Law Review; and despite the obvious defects of this law, four Justices were eager to approve it. The whole course of the United States turns on the survival of five men. If one of them goes, so does the Constitution.

The old model of Congress messing with the Constitution and the Court trying to save it no longer works. We have gone too far down the road to serfdom, and if we continue there will be no turning back. The Courts cannot perpetually resist the political departments. If the Constitutionalists among us cannot regain control of the political branches, what we know as the Constitution of 1789 will be gone, irretrievably gone; it takes only one more liberal Justice.

Whereupon Mr. Roberts has thrown this question to the people. Is this the way you want to go? If so, confirm those who posed it. If not, turn them out. You have one more election to accomplish this. If Mr. Obama has four more years, the chances are good that he will be able to add one more to the Court, and there will be no turning back.

One can argue that this is a political strategic decision and it is not his to make. He would argue that it is his task to save the Constitution and this is the only way he knows that will accomplish that. Turn out the makers of this act which would march the United States down the path to federal control of everything, and do it while there is yet time to do so; or face the fact that the Court can no longer protect you from political consequences of your actions. If you want an entitlement state, here is your chance; if you want to reverse this course and move away from entitlements, here is your chance. And, incidentally, what we have is 2700 pages of bad law, passed by ideologues who had not read it and could not have known how bad it is, and approved by four Justices who haven’t read it either. If they’ll approve this they’ll approve anything. If you give Mr. Obama the chance he will add yet another to their number.

Mr. Roberts has proclaimed a reality. He might have gone with the conservative block and thrown the law out, thus making this election one of populism vs. the courts – something the liberals were preparing for. Now the issue is clear. This is a referendum on the entitlement state march down the Road to Serfdom. He may well have been wrong to do this, but it is what he has done.

If Mr. Obama wins this election he will have won and Obamacare will be implemented.

Ms. Pelosi told us that we had to pass the Bill so that we could find out what’s in it. We have done so. Now we know. And now that we know, we have a chance to reject it.

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I have mail from readers who say that since Romney is unsatisfactory, they will vote Libertarian. TRhat is certainly an option.

I note that on the 1912 election President William Howard Taft, who took office as the designated successor to Theodore Roosevelt, failed of reelection because Roosevelt found him unsatisfactory and ran against him as the Progressive (“Bull Moose”) candidate. The result was predictable, the election of Woodrow Wilson. Wilson won a second term on the platform of “he kept us out of the War”, meaning The Great War, which after American entry under Wilson was called the World War.

I can well understand the frustrations of those who find Romney unsatisfactory. He was not my candidate. On the other hand, most of the people I know including myself find it a lot easier to gain influence and even power within the Republican Party rather than the Democrat party.  We do not live in a perfect world. In this real world, either Romney or Obama will become President and will appoint at least one Justice of the Supreme Court. Neither of those potential winners would be my first or even tenth choice to be President; but there is a lot more than a dime’s worth of difference between them.

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You wrote:

"Ms. Pelosi told us that we had to pass the Bill so that w could find out what’s in it."

Perhaps you should read her complete remarks, so that you understand the context of the statement. It’s obvious to anyone who isn’t vested in taking her comments out of context that she was referring to the fact that given all the manufactured controversy, the only way The American People will find out what’s in the bill is when it’s implemented.

Of course, those with their own agendas won’t bother to actually review her remarks in their totality, because when it’s out of context and intentionally misconstrued, it makes a hell of a soundbite.

Which, of course, shows the validity of her point regarding the manufactured controversy and the reality.

M

But in fact we did have to pass the bill to find out what’s in it. And one of the things we find is that it fails to authorize funding of some of its own key elements: it was rushed into law defects and all. And I suspect that neither you nor anyone else believes that Ms. Pelosi actually read the bill that she conducted through the House. Indeed I would wager that not one of those who voted for that bill had actually read it. Twenty seven hundred pages is a lot of reading, and this was done by a lame duck Congress and even then has to use arcane parliamentary maneuvers to get it passed before that Congress was no more.  Yes: we had to pass the bill in order to find out what is in it. And what we are finding is not at all pleasant.

The simplest procedure is to repeal it, every bit of it, and then start over – assuming that there is any sentiment for a new national health bill at all.  The Clintons lost their Congressional majority on this issue, but Mr. Clinton was clever enough to disassociate himself from it in the election of 1996; and the Republicans were kind enough to run Bob Dole, probably the only man Clinton could beat. Romney is not Dole. Romney is more Mormon than Establishment.

But it is hardly unfair to say that the bill had to be passed in order to find out what was in it. No one knew what was in it when it was passed, and many are just finding out some of it now.

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The Road to Serfdom

View 631 Monday, July 02, 2012

I continue to work on a new column, so this will be brief.

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The controversy over the Roberts decision continues, with everyone speculating on what Roberts intended. There is speculation from someone who has in the past had sources inside the Supreme Court building that Mr. Roberts originally intended to vote to throw out Obamacare, but changed his mind; and that Mr. Justice Kennedy pleaded with Mr. Roberts to bring him back; and much other such. Much of the speculation is contradictory, so some of it must be wrong. Perhaps all of it is wrong. Mr. Roberts has been called an evil genius, Machiavellian,  a superb scholar, a damned fool, and almost everything else, and there is much speculation on his motives, his reasoning, his intentions, and his sanity.

None of that matters.

What matters is that Mr. Roberts has handed the question back to the political branches of the government.

For years the adherents of self government and political liberty have lost at the polls, and relied on the US Supreme Court to halt or at least slow the march of the nation toward nationalization of all significant issues. Over time this came down to a series of close decisions by the Court, and a slow – alternated by sudden lurches as with the Warren Court and its emanations and penumbras – march to the left toward nationalization of most significant social and economic issues.

We are left with control of nearly 20% of the economy to be decided by one man. One mortal man. We are left with the most fundamental issues of our time to be decided by thin margins, and even that condition depends on continuing to hold the Presidency whenever a conservative justice dies or decides to retire – and even then on finding potential Justices who will endure the barbarity of the Senate as expressed in the Bork and Clarence Thomas hearings. And that will continue.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/marc-a-thiessen-why-are-republicans-so-awful-at-picking-supreme-court-justices/2012/07/02/gJQAHFJAIW_story.html

http://blog.chron.com/texassparkle/2012/07/chief-justice-roberts-coward-or-evil-genius/

Whatever the motives of Mr. Roberts, he has sent the message that the Court cannot continue to be the only barrier toward the march of the nation toward national socialism. In my judgment it was clear to him – it certainly is to me – that handing the Federal Government direct responsibility for the 15 to 20% of the economy encompassed by health care, adding that to what the government already controls, is a fundamental change in the nature of the Republic. It is a fundamental change in the Constitution made without any Amendment. Ruling Obamacaret unconstitutional would make the Court the key issue of November 2012, when the key issue really ought to be, do you want the Federal Government running that much of the economy? Do you want to go where the country has been heading for the past decades?

Thus his decision: this is a political decision. Make it the key issue of the November 2012 campaign. You cannot rely on the Supreme Court to stand in the path of history and shout Stop! Perhaps at one time you could, but you are down to one man. You have bet the future course of the Republic on the life and integrity of five men; if any one of them dies or is disabled you will no longer have anyone standing in the way of this march to national socialism.

Mr. Roberts is one man, one vulnerable man, who sees the future clearly.

Now I have no sources inside the Court. I have never met Mr. Roberts. I have no idea what he is thinking, but I would be astonished if the above reasoning had never occurred to him. It seems obvious to me.

In any event the effect of what he has done is to make ObamaCare the key issue of the 2012 election as it was of the 2010 election. The 2010 election that sent a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. The election that reduced the Democratic power in the Senate, and gave the Republicans a majority in the House. The election that showed that raising taxes is not a popular platform to run on. And he has said that ObamaCare is a tax.

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So now the pundits are castigating Romney over – what? Not being clear? He has said, very clearly, that he will act to repeal ObamaCare if there is any chance of doing so.

It seems clear to me. The November 2012 election is a referendum on whether the US continues on the road to national socialism – what about half the country calls the Road to Serfdom http://www.christiannewswire.com/news/6202320092.html — or not. It couldn’t be more stark.

The conservatives have for decades pinned their hopes on the US Supreme Court to save the country from the consequences of its political decisions. Mr. Roberts has said that will no longer work. Like Obama or hate him, like Romney or despise him, the issue is far bigger than either man.

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I will try to deal with mail, much on this issue, tonight.

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