Monthly Archives: March 2012

Mail 717 Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Afghan conflict and recent killings

Hi Jerry

In reaction to the rogue killings in Afganistan here is one reaction from a Canadian perspective from an author who has been there and recently published a book on Canada’s involvement in that conflict. It is a bit of a rant and makes some remarks concerning the history of the conflict that are provocative (especially if you are a democrat).

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/03/13/terry-glavin-canada-deserved-better-than-this-so-did-the-afghans/

Hope you can access this link.

Sam Mattina

Thank you. I have posted more on this today: https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=6165

Nation building

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

David Warren concedes that nation building in Afghanistan and Iraq has been a failure.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/cominghome/export+democracy/6223785/story.html#ixzz1nplW1l7G

In this, he retracts his initial support, which was predicated on our success in rebuilding Germany and Japan back in 1945. He states that the situation is too different.

Which raises the question in my mind: WHY is the situation different?

You were alive and aware of world events in 1945. You’ve lived through both reconstructions. What is different between them?

From my vantage point of someone who grew up in the ’70s, I perceive two answers:

1) Japanese militarism and German Naziism were defeated *as ideologies* in a way that militant Islamism has not been. Consequently, the Axis populations were willing to abandon the old way of looking at things and adopt a new one. They were essentially racist viewpoints that were definitively rebutted when ‘inferior’ Slavs and Americans beat the Aryans and the Yamato Race. Not just defeated, but destroyed, annihilated, the Axis. By contrast, militant Muslims expect to win the battle in the long haul, tactical setbacks notwithstanding. It’s a viewpoint they have held since AD 700 and does not appear to have lost any staying power in all that time.

2) The US made it absolutely clear in 1945 that we were in for the long haul in Japan and Germany and were determined to win whatever the cost. In fact, we’re still there. By contrast, there was an expiration date on our adventures in the Middle East from the day of the invasion. I don’t think the most stupid shepherd in the hills doubted for an instant that the Americans would be leaving in a fairly short time. There’s not much incentive to change when the winning move is simply to grab a book and take a vacation until the Americans quit in disgust.

Is that correct ? Are there issues? As I said, you have living memory of both. What do you see?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

In World War II we had an objective, and we knew when it had been achieved. What we undertook in Japan and Germany was achievable by citizen soldiers – indeed required citizen soldiers.

See Fehrenbach. The kind of operations we undertook in Iraq and Afghanistan cannot be accomplished with citizen soldiers without great expense. It cannot be done on the cheap; it is actually more expensive than building legionaries and auxiliaries. Of course no one in Afghanistan believes that the father of two children deployed for the fourth time in eleven years will stay until the job is done. We don’t believe it either. When Rome sent a Legion to Britain it was not recruited in Rome and never believed that it would be called home to Rome – indeed, the troops dreaded it. See Benet’s Last of the Lecions. If we want to build nations, we need to send those who expect to garrison that nation, marry locally, and – well, you get the idea.

No such thing as a light infantryman in the US anymore…

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htinf/articles/20120311.aspx

And SLAM is rapidly rotating… http://www.amazon.com/Soldiers-Load-Mobility-Nation/dp/0686310012

s/f

Couv

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

A dilemma that has been with us since Roman times, when the new model Roman Army called themselves Marius’s Mules…

BUFF

When I’m in the Shreveport, LA area, I still marvel at the BUFFs flying around. Their northern landing approach brings them about 400 ft over I-20!

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20120313.aspx

s/f

Couv

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

My first aerospace job was in the Boeing Bomber Weapons Unit, where I was charged with helping convert the B-52 force to the new model in which the tail gunner was inside the flight cabin (and became the lowest ranking enlisted man aboard, and thus was charged with making and distribution of coffee when not in combat). I was also involved in the downward ejection system modifications, and in the control system for the Hound Dog standoff missile deployments. I got to play about in the huge bomb bay when we tried to make the bomb release timing more exact. The current BUFF is sometimes described as a bunch of parts flying in loose formation, and the crews are all younger than the ships they fly. She’s a splendid old girl. I love her.

Pirates and congress

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I thought you might appreciate these remarks by Stephen Carmel of Maersk lines.

To hear him tell it, he’s more worried about Congress than about pirates.

http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/08/pirates-vs-congress-how-pirates-are.html

Essentially, armed security — in Maersk’s case, made up exclusively of former SEALs — adds about one fifth of a cent to the cost of a gallon of gasoline at the pump. That’s not without it’s problems. For one thing, sending freighters with armed crew aboard invites reciprocity. He posits a Maltese freighter sailing into Norfolk with a crew armed to the teeth, in accordance with the piracy plan provided by the host nation.

Also, there is an issue that if someone shoots a Pakistani pirate aboard a US flag ship, there’s nothing to stop that pirate (or his survivors) from suing in Karachi, ensuring the ship is impounded the next time it docks there. There is liability protection in US law, which is very helpful against piracy off the New Jersey coast, but less where it actually matters.

" At this point the single most helpful thing regarding piracy (aside of course from solving Somalia) the worlds governments can do would be to push through IMO a rule set that standardizes training and certification of shooters, a standard weapon set, and international protocols for entry and clearance of armed merchant ships in ports and a standard framework for liability cover. That to me would be a heck of a lot more useful than banal calls for the worlds Navy’s to do more."

The major costs to his shipping line, as he sees it, comes from $6 bil a year in emissions controls, $50/ton carbon tax on ship’s coal, $15 bil in invasive species mandates, ballast water mandates etc. etc. etc. Given the choice between Congress and the pirates, it’s almost as if he’d run up the black flag himself! Maybe John Galt’s valley will reflag merchant ships?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Ain’t we got fun? The Iron Law is quite real…

Share the Wealth

I love to see this President sharing the wealth.  He does not need to show valid identification to take the office of President, so why should the people who vote for him have to show such identification? 

<.>

The Justice Department has blocked a new law in Texas requiring voters to show a photo ID, saying that it disproportionately harms Hispanic residents.

The action is the second time in three months that the Obama administration has blocked a state voter ID law. In December, the Justice Department struck down South Carolina’s new law requiring photo identification at the polls, saying it discriminated against minority voters.

</>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/justice-department-bars-texas-voter-id-law/2012/03/12/gIQAUzgW7R_story.html

Eventually, they will learn "the hireling fleeth, because he is an hireling, and careth not for the sheep". 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Spreading the wealth around. We can’t say we were not forewarned. One must show ID to fly on an airplane, but it is apparently unreasonable to ask for identification for voters.

You need a reality check.

I’m not certain I have ever said that Ms. Fluke’s rights were violated, and I certainly don’t agree with her views about my obligation to pay for her contraceptives.

Stop spreading lies. I’m disappointed you’d let yourself be used to perpetuate this. It’s not even a good lie.

She has insurance coverage.

She pays over $1800/yr for the coverage.

Federal Regulations say her INSURER needs to provide birth control.

So, exactly where is she dipping into YOUR pocket?

The insurer pays the benefit from her premium collected, or their investment income, OR they suck at underwriting and deserve no pity for failing to be good capitalists and it comes from their reserves.

So, exactly where is she dipping into YOUR pocket?

Now, since you OBVIOUSLY haven’t actually READ HER TESTIMONY, it is reproduced below so you can clarify this issue for yourself before you publish your retraction.

YOU WILL NOTE THAT SHE NEVER MAKES THE CLAIM WHICH YOU FALSELY ATTRIBUTE TO HER.

Please remember to be as enthusiastic in your correction of others going forward as you were in spreading this malicious lie.

With barely concealed disgust,

Mike Lieman

I am not sure this needs comment. Once you tell an “insurance” company what benefits it must pay, you will find that subsidies are not far behind – or else the company simply ceases to exist. We all pay for subsidies. Even those who pay no taxes, since they generally exist on entitlements which could be increased. Of course those who live on entitlements don’t always get to say what it is they will be entitled to.

Ah, well.

antinihilism

Hi Jerry-

One way of confronting wrongheadedness is to take it seriously. This article is an example. It may be of interest to your readers.

http://www.newcriterion.com/articles.cfm/The-new-old-lie-7300

Best regards,

-Steve=

Yes, I have mentioned it elsewhere. Thanks.

x-prize for education

Jerry,

On the subject of an X-prize for education…

Spend the money convincing parents and govt busybodies that education is intensely personal and each child will, no matter how much effort is spent on them, achieve only to their own maximum potential. There is a huge difference between the top 10% and bottom 10% in academic achievement, but right now the big thing seems to be to force all kids to learn exactly the same amount and then measure the schools on how closely they come to making all students perform to a mythical average standard.

Nothing could be more harmful to our kids.

Above average kids need an extra challenge, and those kids with the potential for some seriously high-end education should not be held back in public schools, and their parents should not have to resort to putting their kids into expensive private schools. Likewise, kids who are at the lower end of academic potential should not be made to feel inadequate if despite all their hard work, they do not achieve to the standards set. Forcing a standard that all kids can achieve is simply enforcing mediocrity on our children.

Instead, an approach similar to the one I first saw in my own high school ought to be considered as a model for all public schools. My school had a 4-track system. The primary tier was for the 60% or so students who were "average". These courses challenged these students without either boring or embarassing them, and the classes were structured to minimize the effects of the "average" disruptive student as well. The next track had about 20% of the students, those who were either a bit above average in capabilities or who simply possessed a better focus for the school environment. Classroom disruptions were almost non-existent mostly because students who disrupted these classes were placed back in the primary track. The next track was for those 10% students who were clearly above average, and who consistently performed well with their grades, comprehension, and in various types of tests. There were ZERO disruptions in these classes, and students who qualified for these classes (mostly through testing and observation) loved the extra challenge. The final 10% track was for students who were getting no benefit from the normal classes, for various reasons. Some simply could not sit still through a class, some simply progressed slowly. These students were taught in much smaller classes by highly talented teachers (often the ones teaching the "top" track classes) and their education focused on things that could help them succeed later in life.

One thing was VERY clear in all of the classes… Nobody was given a free ride, and the teachers and faculty did not say or imply that failing to go to college was somehow a failure to succeed in life. All students were encouraged to apply to college if they wanted, and some of the classes in all tracks, especially in the junior and senior years, were targeted specifically at preparation for college entrance. But the career counselors presented both college and direct entry job prospects after high school with equal respect. Because they realized that some students simply wouldn’t benefit from college and might even be badly harmed by an unsuccessful college attempt. This is why the school included vocational elective courses for everyone.

So my suggestion is to give the $10 million to someone who can figure out how to convince the meddling govt busybodies to get their fingers out of public schools, and let the schools set their own priorities and standards based on the student populations they have. Because each student is going to have different capabilities and trying to force them all into one single mold, or even trying to prepare ALL of them for college, is pretty destructive to almost every student including both high and low achievers.

Sean

The only way that education comes close to being an investment in the future is if it makes the public school graduates more productive citizens. It is not politically correct to notice that this really means that you ought to concentrate on the smartest students; there is little return on investment put into the disabled, feebleminded, and those with behavior problems that doom them to being unproductive. National wealth depends on production and productivity, not on getting a dull normal child to get a ‘passing grade’. Yes, half the children are below average, and that and they cannot be ignored; but adding a few points to the SAT score of a child with IQ 89 is unlikely ever to have a payoff equal to the cost of the education. You aren’t suppose to say this, but nearly everyone knows it.

Preparing a potential scientist to be a scientist, or engineer to be an engineer, can have huge return on investment; and taking the time of the teacher away from the bright normal who might become an engineer in order to raise the score of a dull normal a bit is simply not a good investment of limited resources. Wealthy societies can afford all kinds of ‘rights’ and entitlements, like bashing down curbs to make life more pleasant for the handicapped; but that always ends up in lawsuits, and assertions of rights, but seldom adds to productivity. If we’re rich enough we can be generous, but it doesn’t work that way now.

I do think that Khan Academy is making a big difference. http://www.khanacademy.org/

Denier? Warmer?

Great quote you had "I am so accustomed to being taken to task by AGW Believers that I haven’t really prepared for someone who attacks me as a warmer."

Isn’t it interesting that in a society where discourse is as simultaneously simple and complex as it is now-a-days that there is no room for skepticism without pre-conceived positions.

I wonder how long it will be before such skepticism is wiped out everywhere, even in professions like forensics, for being so darned inconvenient.

John

Well either you believe in rational discourse or you don’t. I read John Stuart Mill at an early age, and I suppose I have never forgotten it. Possony believed in rational discussion. It works among rational people, which is what I try to restrict myself to.

Texas vulture study upends forensics

Jerry

It is always true that if you go investigating and gathering data you will learn something you didn’t know, maybe even getting a surprise. For example, the Texas vulture study and its effects on forensics:

http://news.yahoo.com/texas-vulture-study-upends-forensics-142318853.html

“For more than five weeks, a woman’s body lay undisturbed in a secluded Texas field. Then a frenzied flock of vultures descended on the corpse and reduced it to a skeleton within hours. But this was not a crime scene lost to nature. It was an important scientific experiment into the way human bodies decompose, and the findings are upending assumptions about decay that have been the basis of homicide cases for decades. Experienced investigators would normally have interpreted the absence of flesh and the condition of the bones as evidence that the woman had been dead for six months, possibly even a year or more. Now a study of vultures at Texas State University is calling into question many of the benchmarks detectives have long relied on.”

“The time of death is critical in any murder case. It’s a key piece of evidence that influences the entire investigation, often shaping who becomes a suspect and ultimately who is convicted or exonerated. "If you say someone did it and you say it was at least a year, could it have been two weeks instead?" said Michelle Hamilton, an assistant professor at the school’s forensic anthropology research facility. "It has larger implications than what we thought initially." And more.

Ed

Fascinating. Thanks!

Possibly relevant to the end of the Encyclopedia Britannica:

: A parable about Wikipedia and MSM

Read this article first – all the way to the update at the bottom.

Video: Does O’Brien know what “Critical Race Theory” is?

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/03/08/video-the-wikipedia-definition-of-critical-race-theory/

What does this say about the reliability of Wikipedia when important articles are edited to match a liberal agenda and protect liberal media personalities from having their distortions discovered?

What does this say about the liberal media distorting reality in their quest to smear those of us on the right?

Should you believe either one when it comes to politics or your life?

{^_^}

e-books – good for serious writers

http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/03/13/should-serious-readers-buy-e-books/

Charles Brumbelow

The eBook revolution has changed the publishing business. We are just now learning how. I am still collecting thoughts and data on the subject. I also think that author associations must deal with the “self published” author who has sold thousands of eBook copies of an otherwise unpublished work. The publishing profession has been the gatekeeper as to who is a “serious” writer in the past, but no longer.