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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 244 February 10 - 16, 2003 

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Monday  February 10, 2003

Roberta is recovering from a cold. I have the column off. Everyone and his Aunt Aemelia wants me to solve the problems with the space program, and half of them have their own suggestions that seem to have been generated without reading anything I have written.

The lead for the column that will be up next Monday (February 17, 2003 at www.byte.com )will give my take on what to do about space. It's the one I just filed.

Let me emphasize something that probably everyone here knows:

Without secure space assets, our high tech military isn't the world dominant force it has been. We become a country that can win through attrition but that lightning capability that fascinated everyone in the American Afghan War (as opposed to the British Afghan War, and the Russian Afghan War) won't be there. Special forces on horseback without space assets are more effective than Custer, but not a lot more.

Without secure and reasonable cost space access, Strategic Defense becomes pretty well impossible. Strategic Defense of the United States requires capabilities to detect in all phases of a missile's flight, particularly in boost phase; and a variety of kill mechanisms including boost phase intercept with lasers (requires that something be near the target area when it is launched), late boost phase with kinetic kill, midcourse with kinetic kill, threat tube sterilization including use of nuclear weapons to direct debris and other kinetic kill mechanisms, smart rocks and brilliant pebbles, and reentry intercepts including endgame. There can also be laser battle stations, and ground lasers with mirrors in orbit, or pop-up mirrors. We don't need all that to have some intercept capability, and having it all won't make a "leak proof" defense, but having a substantial part of that will make it a very uncertain proposition for those launching weapons at the United States -- including from submarines and ships off shore.

And nearly all of that requires space assets and space access, and I don't mean more Shuttles or any kind of super shuttle.

I think the President must know this: he's certainly an enthusiast for Strategic Defense, and I would suppose that those responsible for advising him on strategy would by now have pointed out that assured access to space is vital for American interests, whether Republic or Empire.

All this seems pretty obvious to me. Alas, I am finding it's not obvious to many others.

Request: before you write me a long message telling me why I am wrong, at least go read what I have said. 

In particular see the Assured Survival chapter of Strategy of Technology; and the various papers here, most of which are indexed on the "Space Cover" page. The really important ones are on X programs and NASA, and on what we learned from DC/X. The Council Report from many years ago gives some specific recommendations. I realize that's a lot to read, but it may save you some time: I have a dozen long essays refuting positions I never held containing little that wasn't in my previous papers -- indeed one diatribe to me uses my own words and arguments to "refute" my positions, only of course it's clear that the writer doesn't know whom he is quoting, or that I already believe what he is trying to convince me of.

Today with luck I will do fiction.

 

 

 

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Tuesday, February 11, 2003

I would have thought that if Bin Laden were going to distribute a tape, it would be visual and unambiguous with both English and Arab newspapers prominent, and Bin Laden speaking live. A still picture with voice text is something else again.

Roberta speculates that he's in such bad shape he doesn't want a picture shown. That's certainly one possibility.

But the tape does little for Iraq and does a lot for clearing up whether or not this is a just war. It is now. See below

 

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Wednesday, February 12, 2003

It's raining -- like 4 inches last night --  and one of the joys of puppyhood is that they can't figure out why their gods can't stop the rain, and Sable doesn't know where she is supposed to do her business. Or even where to sleep. The gutters are breaking, the yard is flooded, and the rain keeps coming down...

Sable wants us to make it stop. Huskies talk. She sounds like Scooby Doo. And she keeps looking at the rain and telling us about it. The UPS keeps screaming. The lights keep blinking. Fun Fun Fun.

 

The tape: it declared war, and proclaimed Iraq and al Queda to be allies. Saddam Hussein had time to denounce that. He hasn't. 

He's not a nice man, but there are a lot of bad people in this world who are not our business. Now he is letting our enemies proclaim policies for him. That makes for a just war.

Were I him I'd be on the TV day and night saying "He don't speak for me!"

More rain and lightning and screaming UPS and flickering lights. Megapath iDSL still working. How long I don't know.

On the war:

Aquinas teaches that war is justified in self defense, or on behalf of others in a moral cause. The war must be winnable and conducted by humane means. On those latter grounds there have been few wars in history that fit better: The US has the most humane means of reducing enemies to military helplessness that any army ever had. And we can certainly win. Moshe Dyan's remarks are clearly to the point here. Or Robert of Normandy's for that matter.

Since this Republic is not a Christian Republic (although the Framers seriously contemplated putting that phrase into the Constitution; after all, seven of the States had Established Churches, all Christian, and the other six were divided by denomination but nothing else): since this is not a Christian Republic we are not bound to go right wrongs by breaking things and killing people. God Wills It! is not a valid policy motivator for the Senate and People of the United States.

We have and should have a foreign policy based on national interest, and that's how I am treating this matter. I never had any intent of defending Saddam Hussein on moral or ethical grounds.

I contend that Saddam Hussein is too stupid to be in charge of the resources he has. Just now it's his business to convince the Senate and People of the United States that he can be deterred, that he is no threat to us, that the President is wrong in his assessment of him as a threat. He knows or darned well should know that there are many here out for his blood, and the only way his enemies can convince the Senate and People of the United States that this is a just war is to show that he is a threat. There are many ways he could act to try to convince us that he is not a threat, and that the President and his neocon warhawk advisors are wrong.

Saddam has not chosen to do this: either because he is a threat and wants to retain the means to be a threat; or he is so stupid as to believe that appearing to be a threat when he is not is a good idea.  Either way, there comes a point at which enough is enough.

Now true: had I been in charge I would not have sent the power of the Empire to the Persian Gulf. I would have adopted other policies more in keeping with being a Republic. We did not do that, and we threatened war, and prepared for war. We raised the stakes to the point that US credibility is now part of the bet.

That gives Saddam Hussein a much harder task, and requires that he make much greater effort to show that he isn't a threat and won't be one. If he does not know that he is too stupid to live. If he does know that, and isn't making those efforts, he is still too stupid to live, and dangerous to boot.

He has had many chances. Even after the State of the Union he had a chance. He steadfastly refuses to act in his own interest, he fires missiles at our airplanes, he plays silly games of hide and go seek with the UN and thinks that outwitting Inspector Blix is a good thing to do: he has shown himself to be unclear on the concepts, and he has too many resources at his disposal; and he doesn't understand that now is the time to show the Senate and People of the United States that he is not and will never be a threat. 

His behavior toward his own people is enough reason for men of good will to wish him removed, but, as I said, there are many in this world who have done that including thousands of teachers in South Africa who think it part of their rights to rape their high school students of both sexes. We need no moral justification to hang Saddam Hussein: we can do it for war crimes committed in the First Gulf War and never punished, if what we want is a moral pretext.

It is now a matter of high policy. Sanity requires Saddam Hussein to act and act quickly; he isn't doing it; if he's not smart enough to do that, he's too dumb to be deterred.

A man too stupid to be deterred can't be in command of resources capable of doing great damage to the people of the United States not to mention the world economy.

As to France, it's a pity their Viking blood has got so thin. Apparently the same problem afflicts the Russ...


Greg Cochran points out that the tape is likely a fake. As I said earlier, I think so too: if Usama were alive and healthy he'd be front and center with copies of US and Arab newspapers prominently in view. The background might be sheets or drapes but he'd be there. 

The fact that it's a still picture and voice means he's either disfigured, disguised as a dwarf, or dead.

It's Saddam's reaction or lack thereof that I am more interested in.

Greg also says, wisely:

And your Imperial analogy is not good, because we're not going to have the enthusiasm to keep pushing and pushing and pushing this in the face of bad press, televised casualties, etc, especially since there isn't going to be any payoff. On the contrary. Look the Roman Republic - more exactly the Senate was far-sighted, had a coherent policy, was determined, didn't care about casualties unless they approached the level where they threatened the strength of the state. Their aggressions made money - ours won't because our military is too damn expensive. None of those conditions apply today.

 And alas, that may be correct. We may end up as neither Republic nor competent Empire. Just Empire and not well managed at that.

But just now, Republic or Empire, we can't afford to look as if we can be bluffed by an idiot who doesn't even understand the game.


On an entirely different subject:

Dell Dude Reportedly Wearing Kilt, Tuxedo Jacket When Busted
http://www.wnbc.com/money/1968152/detail.html


Dude you're gettin' a cell. In the Tombs. With a kilt.


Well, it is now clear: you hire a Husky to be sure you get a lot of exercise, and get it EVERY DAY; and they take that seriously from 4 months on, and just because it is raining in sheets and buckets is no excuse for putting it off.

Roberta came upstairs a couple of hours ago. "She is guilty of every possible offense." That included getting a half dozen eggs off the counter and eating them leaving the shells all over the kitchen floor; shredding newspapers; messing in front of the door and in the bathroom since it's clearly flooded in her usual areas in the yard; running through the house like a maniac; talking incessantly including actual barking; etc.

So first lull in the rain we went for a walk, me in a rain jacket, boots, and a Swedish Army umbrella which is the best one I have. Sable wore her fur coat. And loved every minute of it including when it started coming down in sheets and buckets. Drying her off was a bit of a chore but she's now happily asleep under the dinette table, satisfied that she's done her job for the day.

If you want to be sure to get your exercise, get a Husky puppy.  They're intelligent, and while not obedient, they are cooperative -- and they know what job they have been hired to do.

 

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Thursday, February 13, 2003

Some random thoughts on coming events. My problem is mixed emotions.

Joe Zeff says of Saddam Hussein:

Back at the end of WWII, the four basic charges at Nuremberg were Conspiracy to commit a war of aggression, Waging a war of aggression, War crimes and Crimes against Humanity. Saddam Hussein is clearly guilty of the first two. Depending on how much control he had over what happened in the field, he may or may not be liable under the third. As to the fourth, his firing of the oil fields may qualify, but I'm not sure if destruction of resources counts. It's not exactly a crime against humanity as one against the human race as a whole. Even so, there are at least two of the classic charges available, and I'd like to see the court keep to these charges, as they really cover everything needed.

but I fear I don't find Nuremberg a particularly inspiring precedent. I can find other grounds to just take Saddam Hussein out and shoot him. But I can find grounds to take several hundred South African schoolmasters out and shoot them. I look about the world and there is no end to the number of people who'd be better dead. But at least they are our enemies.

Then the LA Times, which is not an LA paper -- there is no city desk as far as I can see and the stories of the rainstorm are back on page 5 of the second section -- has a huge spread about the Israeli practice of destroying the homes of relatives of suicide bombers and suspected terrorist leaders. There are no trials, and no warnings other than about 5 minutes to get people out of the house, and those haven't always been successful: at least one old lady didn't get out and was buried in the rubble as the Israeli Defense Force knocked her house down.

No trials, no evidence, no convictions. Just reprisals. I seem to recall that we hanged Germans for reprisals.

Perhaps all this is needful, the kind of thing that must go on in order to preserve civilization in some parts of the world, just as the militia in the United States thought that Sand Creek and Wounded Knee were necessary to preserve civilization in the west. Geronimo used to get drunk and beat his wives, until the US military commander couldn't stand it any longer and told him to quit, whereupon Geronimo went on a spree and left a trail of burned farms and dead settlers in his wake: his atrocities were used in justifying the lies told to him to induce him to surrender. Legitimate ruse de guerre to protect the innocent settlers and farmers, perhaps, but it leaves a bad taste when we read that the warrior chieftain was reduced to selling photographs of himself to support his drinking and gambling at Fort Sill until he died.

At least his wives weren't deprived of their houses.

It may all be needful, but it is the sort of thing that the United States finds a bit shameful in our own history; and which will become increasingly necessary as we try to extend civilization, not by being the shining city on the hill and an example of liberty, but the world cop. Go see the movie The Third Man again and think about the price of imposing peace and order.

Saddam Hussein is working to prove he cannot be deterred, and for that reason alone it may be well to make an example of him. Perhaps it must be done, and if it were done when 'tis done, 'twere best it were done quickly. 

As to how to fight the war, several have sent me links to

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030213-69206024.htm 

and interestingly enough, I have received many opinions on this. One came with the subject "lunacy" although which is lunacy, the policy of thinking ahead to the peace, or the tut tutting that goes on about that policy, is not clear.

The military art consists of balancing needs and objectives. Eisenhower once said he did not intend to risk any American lives for political objectives, when asked why the Americans didn't win the race to Berlin and beyond. He lived to regret that: the Cold War would have been immeasurably different had Berlin and Prague been in the American or British occupation zones. It would have cost lives to get to Berlin first, although perhaps not so many as all that: von Braun and many other Germans risked their lives to surrender to the Americans rather than the Russians; and certainly the number of German and Czech lives saved had we pushed on to Prague and Vienna and Berlin before the Russians could get there would be large compared to our increased losses.

So shall it be here. The military does one thing well: it breaks things and kills people. It is up to the politicians to decide what things and heads need breaking; and those will always be political goals, and some of them can be achieved only at increased risk to the soldiers engaged.

Winning the war but losing the peace is the sort of judgment history makes long after the event...

 

 

 

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Friday, February 14, 2003

Wolves rejoice: Happy Lupercalia

Actually I suppose we should thank the church for preserving this ancient day. May your flocks be safe from wolves.

The paper today has several disturbing articles. One is the announcement by the Belgian Supreme Court that Belgium now has the right to arrest and try Israel's Sharon, but only after he leaves office; but they can investigate and gather evidence now.

Belgium, which was the colonial power of the Congo and Rwanda among other interestingly governed places, is now the conscience of the world. And a NATO ally meaning that if they  kidnap an Israel and the IDF rescues him -- which it would do, think Entebbe -- then the US is obliged to make war on Israel. 

I think this is what George Washington had in mind about "entangling alliances." Of course it's silly that a pipsqueak country whose army consists mostly of 40 year old musicians thinks it is the inheritor of Charlemagne and the Holy Roman Empire -- I can't think of any other logic that would justify the mad assumption that they have the right to punish crimes committed in Lebanon by Lebanese Militia under the nominal control of an Israel general. But if there is to be an heir of the Holy Roman Empire, by what right? The Empire was formally abolished in Napoleonic times; I suppose it could be reconstituted by conquest, but not by Belgium, even if the French decided they would help with their military might.

Very odd.

I forget what the other disturbing thing I saw in the Los Angeles Times, a paper about every place in the world but Los Angeles, but doubtless I'll remember it later.


There seems to be some concern about holes in Windows that make the passwords for using accounts vulnerable. My view on that is that if you give someone unsupervised physical access to your machine, it's not yours any longer. Sure, I can keep casual office workers from getting at my stuff without going to a certain amount of trouble; but relying on OS passwords to protect a system is just goofy.


Several sent me this:

The Bork Edition of Opera

On one site, only, it transforms all text into the Muppet Show's Swedish Chef's accent. This is in response to Microsoft intentionally sending distorted pages to people using the Opera browser.

http://www.opera.com/pressreleases/en/2003/02/14/ 
 {^_^}

Despite Joanne's enthusiasm I am not entirely sure this is a good idea...

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Saturday, February 15, 2003

Saddam backs down. Got smart at the last minute. I suspect it's too late: even Colin Powell is now in the warhawk faction. We have sent too much of the imperial strength over there to meekly bring it home again.

I note that the French were all for bombing Serbs and others in the Balkans where it was certainly none of our business; now they're all for making nice. The Norman blood has thinned...

Whatever else happens, we will have given notice: don't harbor the enemies of the Senate and People of the United States, and don't even appear to do so; if accused of doing so, work your tail off to prove you haven't.

And we can hope that the effects in Pakistan won't be too severe. They may even be beneficial.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sunday, February 17, 2003

I seem to have a new bout with Roberta's crud, in addition to sciatica and other back and hip problems. Fun.

We grind away...

 

 

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