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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 174 October 8 - 14, 2001

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Monday  October 8, 2001

The war continues. The best sources I have seen easily available are at DEBKA.

http://www.debka.com/ 

 For more on who these people are:

http://www.observer.com/pages/story.asp?ID=4905 

attached item from above url

gz

More as I get more. The satellite system seems to be working properly again. And the column is done and on the wire. Now to clean up a bit.


There is a high state of alert everywhere. Be careful. We can expect retaliation, not merely by organized groups, but by frenzied individuals and unconnected groups. The latter may be more dangerous than the first.

And I continue to worry about smallpox, the most easily weaponized one of the lot: it only requires that you have some, and have a population of prisoners or willing volunteers.

My last vaccination was a long time ago. Immunity does wear off. I presume the government is inoculating health care workers even as I write this.

Of course the satellite decided to die as I was attempting to post this. It really does have a critical need detector. It looks as if I will have to turn off the stupid satellite system and go back to dialup again. Whenever I need the satellite it simply stops working. There is no discernable reason. It just stops connecting to servers, as if the servers simply don't want to talk to it any more.

 The problem is, I can never tell. All I know is suddenly I cannot connect to my web site by ftp. I can't get mail. I can't update pages. The satellite lights blink furiously, the field strength meter shows a good signal, and nothing whatever happens.  If I shut the darned thing down and go back to the Netwinder and a land line all will work, and of course if I then bring the satellite system back up that will work too.

I really and truly hate this. But for the moment I am simply cut off entirely; if I wait long enough it may work again. And it may not. And there is no information whatever.  If you are contemplating DirecPC satellite service, think about pounding yourself on the head with a hammer instead. It won't be a lot less pleasant.

What happens is that there are a few bursts of communications, so that it looks as if something is going to happen -- and then nothing at all. But just enough happens that you try again. Stupid Stupid Stupid.

425 HTTP Error unable to connect with remote host. Get used to it. This is worse than unreliable. 

I am going to go shut it down and bring back my Netwinder. Of course it is possible that the entire net is dead. It may as well be...

And just as suddenly, it begins. The best way to fix the satellite system is to sincerely threaten to shut it down and go with an alternative.


"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feelings which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight: nothing he cares about more than his own personal safety: is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions and blood of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill


Smallpox: if they work it just right they will manage to kill most of our women and children, leaving only 40 year old veterans.

As John Ringo said elsewhere, that scenario works out to the last bounty hunter tracking down the last terrorist in a pretty dead world.


NOTE that this is a day book and a log of sorts that I share. Do NOT expect it to look like final copy...

Of course the egregious satellite has stopped working again. I guess I better opt for reliability. And as soon as I went in to the other room to do it, it started working again...

Then as soon as I wrote and sent that, whammo! Can't connect to mail server. Reliable this ain't. It could be pair.com server. of course. It might be evil spirits. But I hate this thing.

Well, it wasn't the satellite. NOTHING will connect me to my mail servers. Earthlink has gone bonkers, or Pair.com has. I have been holding off sending the column to Tokyo because I hoped to get some last minute revisions. Now I can't connect. If you see this then I will have managed, but for the moment we're dead by satellite and dialup.

The Internet seduces


 you into counting on it, then fails.

And as soon as I wrote that, it all started working again. Meaning that the satellite wasn't at fault at all. But how can you KNOW? There must be some way to know which has failed.

The Internet itself seems to fail a lot lately. Maybe if we dropped spammers on Afghanistan it would be beneficial to all. I am darned tired of elaborate unsolicited crap that has the nerve to say I signed up for it, and it gets fancier and fancier all the time. Something terrible, physical, and very public should happen to enough spammers that the rest get the idea.


Does anyone have real information on whether smallpox drifted out of the USSR in the collapse? That is the one biological agent that would be easy to cultivate, and easy to vector, and damned effective.  

Great. Now we scramble jets and break windows with sonic booms because a nutty kid tried to get into the cockpit of an airliner, and freaked out after being subdued.

From silly security: "Did you pack your bags? Did anyone ask you to carry anything on with you? Are you a  terrorist?" to this?  Sigh.


I have a question on anthrax. When I was young, anthrax was a cattle disease, and dreaded because if it appeared, the county agent and some sheriff's people showed up and killed the animal. Mules with slip shovels were used to dig a fairly deep pit, and the animal was dragged into the pit. Gasoline was poured in and ignited, then the pit was filled in.

And they watched all the other cattle in the herd. The Jones place down the road had a case and that's what happened, and we were all worried that it might hit our dairy cows. It didn't. We were told humans could get it too.

It was considered contagious.  Now I am told it is not contagious in that it can't be passed from person to person.  I also know that a weaponized version got loose in the USSR -- I have a book on this -- and killed a bunch of people around the plant. 

What is the infection mechanism? I know that there are places contaminated with the spores that are considered too dangerous to approach. 

No speculation, please. Does anyone know?  I know some contagious diseases that could be used as biowar agents, including some endemic in certain parts of the country, and I would think that if anyone was going to use a biowar agent a contagious one would be selected, so why the fear of anthrax?

I'd appreciate some simple truths. I can speculate with the best...

 

OK! I have enough. Thanks. I'll try to make sense of it all.

Thanks. 

For a summary on anthrax as a threat, see mail.

For what our intellectual class thinks about the situation, see

http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB100223834682375520.htm 

Towers of Intellect

By JAMES BOWMAN

Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal, on its front page, told the sad story1 of Jennie Traschen, professor of physics at the University of Massachusetts, who had the bad luck at an Amherst town meeting on Sept. 10 to have called the American flag "a symbol of terrorism and death and fear and destruction and oppression."

Her words were circulated on the Internet just as real terrorism and death put them in an unwelcome perspective. Suddenly she started getting irate phone calls and e-mails, some of them threatening or obscene. "There's been a level of repercussion that was totally unanticipated," she said.

Well, maybe it's time that she did a bit more anticipating. The same goes for the professor at the University of New Mexico who said that "anyone who can blow up the Pentagon gets my vote." Later he called this claim "the worst attempt at an incredibly stupid joke," and I'm sure he is right. The language of politics in the rarefied world of American higher education had not prepared either professor for a reality like the terror attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Oh! So that's what "terrorism" means!

They were caught unawares, with their assumptions showing. But others in the academy spoke deliberately after Sept. 11 of the provocations given to the terrorists by America. Prof. Robert Jensen of the University of Texas wrote that the suicide mission "was no more despicable than the massive acts of terrorism . . . that the U.S. government has committed during my lifetime." Prof. Barbara Foley of Rutgers University wrote of the terror attack that "whatever its proximate cause, its ultimate cause is the fascism of U.S. foreign policy over the past many decades."

Not Thought but Reflex

For those unaccustomed to the jargon of the professoriate and unable to recollect the mass rallies of American black-shirts, I should mention that the word "fascist" in the preceding phrase is used in the Stalinist sense to mean anything that is not, well, Stalinist. So automatic has such jargon become to the likes of Prof. Foley that she probably never even stopped to reflect on how much more like the actual fascists known to history were the fanatical theocrats who brought down the towers.

  < snip >

Which leaves one to wonder, why do people pay large sums of money to expose their children to people like this?

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide.

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, October 9, 2001

Niven's back from a New York trip. I've made a major book sale to the film industry. I have to get things cleaned up from the column. It's a real mess here, isn't that unusual. And the beat goes on.

The satellite and land line systems both seem to be working better today. Clearly there was some kind of net weather storm yesterday but what I don't know. It cleared up about 9 PM and the intermittent inabilities to make contact with my mail servers went away and all was well from then on.

Column is filed, I need to take and send some pictures.

BYTE site seems to have some problems. I expect they'll get it all fixed.

Thanks to those who subscribed. If you haven't and intend to get a round tuit, this is no bad time...

And here's this:

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

One of your readers asked if Dr. Tony Kern was an actual person, and if he wrote the essay attributed to him.

The answers appear to be yes: http://www.snopes.com/rumors/tonykern.htm 

----------------------------- John W. Braue, III <braue@ratsnest.win.net>

"I conclude that since some men love as they please but fear when the prince pleases, a wise prince should rely on what he controls, not on what he cannot control" -- Niccolò Machiavelli

The Machiavelli quote is worth paying attention to...

I also have this from someone I pay attention to:

I'd go outside and check if Debka said the sun was rising in the east.

Thomas Holsinger

But I also have indications that Debka is on the mark sometimes. I certainly would not use it as a primary source...


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And here is Roberta at the grand opening of the Los Angeles Opera. She looked grand indeed...  I was putting other photos into albums and found this. Don't she look great?

 

 

 

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Wednesday, October 10, 2001

Happy 10/10 ROC

THANKS TO ALL: I have managed the conversion. 

Roberta's web site was put together in Word documents. We're ready to do some revisions now, but I cannot for the life of me see how I can change the word documents to be FrontPage pages so I can edit them. I have imported them and when I open a page it opens WORD and there they are, but I can't find the normal FrontPage tools and controls. I would like to convert the darned thing, all its pages, into a real FP document. Anyone got suggestions?

It looks straightforward enough, copy the word document and paste onto a blank FrontPage page; but does that do it properly?

(DONE SEE BELOW. THANKS)


My thanks to all who subscribed recently. Some of you sent letters with your paper mail checks. I got them, I have read them, in general I just don't have time to respond to the individual letter. I wish I did. My thanks to all of you.

It has taken a while to get to some of the paper mail checks because the Mail Boxes franchise owner is a Marines Special Forces reservist and was called up and his family is operating the place...


Jerry:

I'm a long time fan. In regard to your Frontpage problem, all you have to do is point to the file you want to edit, and right click. You will be given a choice of editors to use at that point. Select FrontPage. Once you do that, it sill remember to open that document with FrontPage.

I swear I'm going to subscribe real soon now.

Julio Rivera

YES!  Thanks!

And the silly satellite is working properly today, and all is well...

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Thursday, October 11, 2001

I got Roberta's web site converted to FrontPage with that right click trick. Can't think why I didn't know about that, but it's sure not easily found in the help files. Indeed I haven't found it yet even when I know how to do it. Microsoft probably hires Sherman the Shark to do its indexing and he subcontracts to the hermit crab. That's the only way I can explain the abysmal state of their help file indexing. I mean, how hard would it be to put in something about "conversion from Word Documents" or "conversion" under Word, or whatever.

Now I have to figure out how we send the ordering information to her secured link. I know it works. I know I set it up. I know I made it happen. I know that when you hit the "submit" button on her web site having filled in an order for her program, or a subscription for this page, the credit card information is sent to us and all is well; but I cannot figure out how that is done or how to alter the scripts, and I think I must have been hit with a stupid stick...

At least I have all her stuff in Front Page now, and wow did Front Page put a lot of needless gubbage in the code. Fortunately it's easy enough to take out.

And we have files and files of stuff about mailscripts. Now I need enlightenment. It doesn't appear easy to come by, but what man has done man can aspire to, particularly in my case since I actually did it already...

I hate how much I don't remember. But then Sherlock Holmes wanted to forget the Copernican view of the Solar System because there is only so much room in one's head (or so he thought) and if you learn one thing you must forget another...  At least I am still learning things.

 

 

There's a twisted sense of humor here, but you may like

http://www.morphmaster.com/movies/BINLADEN.swf 

which is one of those things I could never have downloaded before I got the satellite.

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Friday, October 12, 2001

The president told the Taliban they have a choice: they can deliver bin Laden and we'll 'reconsider' what we are doing to their country.  No one seems to have thought much about what that means.

There is a lot in the papers about the New American Empire: the words are being used explicitly now. In particular, there is

http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/goldberg.htm 

and less well known William Mayer

http://www.etherzone.com/maye101701.shtml 

Goldberg makes reference to an editorial/article by Max Boot in The Weekly Standard, which is the explicit journal of "American Greatness" or perhaps one should say Empire. Mayer says

"Critics from the squishy right, mostly champions of libertarian thought, counsel a retreat from any American role that even approaches that of global policeman."

Both make the case that what is needed is a larger role of America in running the world: an American Empire.

As it happens, I wrote something this morning for another discussion group ( a small one I spend more time with than I should but it does generate some good stuff for over here sometimes): it's on this theme. The explicit question was asked by a former Chairman of the National Endowment of the Arts: would the US still be the target if it were not for US involvement in Israel. She concluded that we would be: that US support of Israel is irrelevant to our being hated by bin Laden and company. Let me start by pasting my reply  in here. (I have edited and added to it.)

The War : Second Month

I would assume that absent strong evidence to the contrary, the best source of information about bin Laden and his people's motives are bin Laden and his people. They don't talk much about Palestinian issues as much as they do about general Western interference in the affairs of the Near and Middle East. All of which is true. The Brits gave Arabia to Faisal, and then moved the Protector of Mecca from that area to Jordan, and gave his brother Iraq, all in their general messing about in Mesopotamia. The French got chunks. Eventually the Brits and French left the area. Eisenhower made the Anglo-French forces halt their Suez adventure, and then continued with a long US involvement over there. Israel would exist without US help, but it would have been a lot more difficult -- and many in the Arab world don't believe that anyway. But Israel isn't their only concern, and outside Palestine is arguably not even the major concern of the Arab world.

We're now the major prop for general imperial messing about in that area, which is why we are the target. We have troops in Arabia. We prop up not very savory Arab governments including the Kuwaiti Royal Thugs who cowered in London while the West reconquered their country for them. The goal of bin Laden and company is to get us to get out and come home and mind our own business. It is not an incomprehensible goal. It's one some of us can have sympathy with. 

Unfortunately for them they chose unacceptable methods for achieving their goal.

What We Must Do

There are two questions for America now. The first is to demonstrate that it is not wise to harm us, nor is it wise to be blind to attempts to harm us that originate in areas you control. Don't let it happen on your watch or you will pay. That lesson needs to be paid out to everyone in that area. We want everyone to know there is a high negative expected value to whacking on Americans.

I think we can all agree to that one?

But Then What?

The second is where we have debates: do we belong over there at all, and by "over there" I include Bosnia and Macedonia and Kossovo and the Balkans as well as the Middle East and Mesopotamia and all those places. What is our legitimate role in the world? It is my contention that we don't in general have the stomach for Imperialism: we are not willing to build the grave of the hundred head in retaliation for the murder of one of our officers, and we don't really know what we are doing when it comes to imperialism. It is my contention that we would do far better trusting to our technology, and developing hemispheric resources, and perhaps developing as a Pacific Power, than building entangling alliances and mucking about in the territorial disputes of Europe including the failed colonialism ventures in Mesopotamia.

We didn't make the mess over there, but we get blamed for it because we're there, booted and bareheaded poking into anything we like. Now that's all right if we're prepared to do the rest of what it takes to support our right and ability to poke about into everyone else's affairs and bomb whom we like and support whom we like and be shocked when the enemies of the people we support don't like it (tell them to lump it) -- but we have to be prepared to follow through with that.

Proud Legions

We don't at the moment have Legions, long term military units we can send anywhere for as long as we like without worrying about anything but paying them. We still use citizens for soldiers not only for home defense but for overseas adventures. We don't even have a China Navy and dirty blue uniform soldiers, and the days of the old one-troop western post are long gone; but dirty shirt blue makes for the best empires, and if we are going to play empire we will need imperial soldiers. They aren't that hard to get. Most won't be Americans to start with. We'll have to stop being so damned solicitous about troops killed in training -- if you don't lose troops in training you will lose more in their first battle -- and we will have to allow disciplinary methods a lot more arbitrary than the UCMJ. We need to read old Joseph Maxwell Cameron on The Anatomy of Military Merit and think about what he says. In the Legions at least we need to give officers the arbitrary authority to promote and break NCO's, and NCO's the authority that the rank of "corporal" implies. All that follows from a decision to take long term hands in the overseas power games.

Legions are dangerous. To everyone.

Control of those legions is possible. It will require some Praetorians, oops, domestic citizen units, and perhaps we can work that with reserves and National Guard and ringknocker service academy graduates promoted for loyalty and social connections rather than strictly for ability. We did that for a long time after the Civil War, when we had Legions out west, and we can do it again.

But do we have the stomach for that? For the moment it don't matter much: we have to make Lesson One manifest, don't muck with the US or you will get hurt (Niven's Law: Don't throw excrement at an armed man) and don't let people around you muck with the US (Niven's second law, don't stand next to someone who is throwing excrement at an armed man). But while we are getting that done we need to think what we will do next.

So What Next?

My view is I would rather invest all that money and effort into developing technology to make the Middle East resources irrelevant to our economic necessity, but I probably won't be around long enough to care a lot.

That ended what I wrote earlier this morning. Let me continue:

What to invest in? Hemispheric independence, particularly in energy. Now we have the technology to do that already: fission nuclear power plants, plus development of domestic oil fields. None of this is particularly expensive compared to war and maintaining Legions after the war. Nuclear power plants are not popular among the Left, but with much of the country supporting Imperial America that doesn't matter as much: energy independence is an important pre-requisite to republic rather than empire, and if we go for republic perhaps those who want the republic will understand that either we have the energy on our own or we will have to be in places where we can get it.

And Solar Power Satellites, not because they are cheaper than nuclear, but they can be, given a few iterations of Moore's Law on developing efficiency and better fabrication methods for solar cells, and given a few tens of billions put into getting the cost of access to space down to about the cost of air freight. And that would have a payoff worth going for.  I would rather have Solar Power Satellites and a US Space Navy than have the US Tenth Legion in Baghdad and the XVIII in Kabul. 

But then I am part of that squishy right that believes in the republic. But I am also a member of The Augustan Society and its sister organization The Octavian Society, and my ancestors shouted for Napoleon and served him well. Empire has an appeal, with flags and glory, and the glitter of the Praetorian Guard: but it's based on dirty shirt blue and don't you ever forget it. And if you want to keep your Legions happy, you will have to let them have their way.

For they swore by the Holy Water,
They swore by the salt they ate,
That the soul of Lieutenant Eshmitt Sahib
Should go to his God in state,
With fifty file of Burmans
To open him Heaven's Gate.
 

I thought Roberta looked great at the opera. Thanks to those who sent mail to forward to her.

And of course the satellite or pair or the internet or graveyard spirits are out in force, and my connections die before I can send stuff up to my web site. I HATE THIS. It's the unreliability that drives me up the wall. I should plan on batch updates at random times when the Internet is actually working.

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Saturday, October 13, 2001

Friday the 13th comes on a Saturday this month...

Let this stand for a lot of such things I have got:

http://serendipity.magnet.ch/wot/psyopnews1.htm 

It's odd how some people will spend their time.

And I keep getting this mail and variants, and I keep finding people who bit on it. It is one of the oldest cons in the book: it was used in the Spanish American War and thereafter that I know of:

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

Fax 234 -1 -7597393.

ATTN:M.d

SIR,

WE ARE SENDING THIS LETTER TO YOU BASED ON THE

INFORMATION WE GATHERED FROM THE FOREIGN TRADE OFFICE

OF THE NIGERIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY. WE

BELIEVE THAT YOU WOULD BE IN A GOOD POSITION TO HELP

US IN OUR BID TO TRANSFER THE SUM OF TWENTY MILLION,

EIGHT HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITED STATES DOLLARS (US$20.8)

INTO A FOREIGN ACCOUNT.

Etc.  They may even show you money, although they are not likely to have millions. But you will never get any of it...

 

I am not sure who Lew Rockwell is, but I was sent a copy of a reminder of  Albert Jay Nock's essay on Isaiah, and I found it intriguing:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/yates/yates42.html 

This was written by a Stephen Yates, and I don't know him either. Nor am I as gloomy as Yates or Nock. Still in all, Nock has always been worth contemplating.

Mail on that in mail.

 

 

 

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Sunday, October 15, 2001

I probably won't be updating this for most of next week: Niven and I are about to blitz a book. 

I have the latest StarOffice and a number of favorable reports. It will probably be the lead in the next column.

Chip prices way down. New systems cheaper. Computer power!

Roland asks:

This country's posture has always been that we'd reply to an attack with weapons of mass destruction - nuclear, chemical, or biological - with nuclear weapons.

Why is nobody talking about this now, in light of the anthrax attacks?

But of course the reasonable question is, who do we bomb? Baghdad?

You may all recall that my first proclivity in this mess was to build monuments using bulldozers; destroy property and kill only those who resist. My goal was to make something so visible in the lands of those who took pleasure at harming us that they would think twice about it.

Now part of that was squeamishness on my part: I really don't want to be haunted by the CNN pictures of dead babies as Herod was haunted by visions of the slaughtered innocents. But part of it was because I thought we might actually DO something of that sort. Loosing nuclear weapons on cities when we don't know for certain who is the enemy is not only unlikely, but not all that great a strategy. If all it takes to get the US to destroy someone, do you not think there are those in Delhi, or Ankara, or Tel Aviv smart enough to mail a few anthrax spores about?  It don't say that is what happened, and I don't in fact suspect it: but were the equation absolute, would it not be a great temptation, if not to the heads of such services, then to rogue agents?  Perhaps I think too deviously but I can't think I am alone...


For an Indian view of the situation, read

http://www.flonnet.com/fl1821/18210160.htm 

and read it carefully. 

 

 

 

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