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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 135 January 8 - 14, 2001

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This is a day book. It's not all that well edited. I try to keep this up daily, but sometimes I can't. I'll keep trying. See also the monthly COMPUTING AT CHAOS MANOR column, 4,000 - 7,000 words, depending.  (Older columns here.) For more on what this place is about, please go to the VIEW PAGE.

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Monday  January 8, 2001

 

Final day on the first column of the Millennium. Got it done, too. Hello, world.

 

 

 

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Tuesday, January 9, 2001

I ought to reorganize this site. I probably won't though.

The newspapers this morning are filled with examples of problems that seem to come as a surprise when they were perfectly foreseeable by anyone with half an ounce of sense. They were also full of some of the worst journalism I have ever seen, not in tabloids, but in the Los Angeles Times. Headlines that bear no real relationship to the body of the story. Articles with a byline that should have been columns since they report as fact a lot of wishful thinking.

And silliness. If the US builds missile defenses, that "could" cause China and Russia to start a new nuclear arms race and they "could" then build thousands of new missiles, says one byline reporter supposedly reporting facts ("sources say" this nonsense). Well as a matter of fact they COULDN'T. Russia has neither the money nor the organization nor the resources to build thousands of ICBM's even if by some odd stretch of the imagination the thugs who run that kleptocracy were insane enough to want to. They might be happy enough to have contracts to do it, of course. It's one more way to steal. 

The interesting thing is that as an investment, missile defenses make sense: the technologies needed will make space access cheap. The laser techniques have a lot of civil and industrial applications. Space platforms will lead to new industries. New ICBM's and means to defeat missile defenses, on the other hand, are a lousy investment just now; they have almost no side payoff. 

In England they want to let off those kids who tortured and killed the boy theyu picked up in the Mall. The European Union courts have decided. They will also make it a criminal offence to publish the new names and addresses given the culprits when they are released. But of course that applies only in England and Wales. And of course no Scottish or Irish paper will publish that information, and I am Marie of Rumania. What do these judges think they are doing?

And Massachusetts "treats" a child abuser -- he didn't "molest" kids he raped them -- and lets him loose. Then he's picked up for another child abuse case. So they give him probation and move him to Montana. Not warning authorities there of course. So he hangs around a school yard, is picked up there, released, and goes out and kidnaps, kills, and eats a schoolboy.  All of which, including the cannibalism, was predictable to the "experts" who "treated" him in Massachusetts, although some of those "experts" testified that their "treatment" had been effective and it was safe to put him on parole. So when he violated the parole they ship him to Montana. Well done, Land of the Kennedys.

And on. The California energy crisis, which was easily predictable given the imbecile terms of the "deregulation" -- let's create a producer monopoly, and set a cap on what the utilities (which distribute but can't invest in production facilities that might let them compete with the production oligooply we just created) can charge, and wait for problems to happen. And act surprised.

I think the world has gone mad. And it is becoming easier to see how and why people turn to a Bonaparte.  

 

The column is off and done. And I have errands today. There is much mail for yesterday and today, including some discussion on sound studios.

 

 

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Wednesday, January 10, 2000

Chips and Bits advertises a lot in gaming magazines. Every time I go to their web site to try to buy something I find it is "backordered". I gather they don't really keep inventory?  I can also "preorder".  Now I understand that publishers announce stuff and shipping dates they don't keep (and probably never thought they would keep), and that gives outfits like Chips and Bits a problem, but this is ridiculous. They must be doing something right what with all the advertising they do, but I have yet to find they have in stock something I was ready to buy. Oh. Well. Maybe I can find it at Amazon.

And in fact I did find what I wanted at Amazon, and more than that, instead of "backorder" they told me when things would ship, and made it easy to buy. They even had suggestions for hint books I didn't know existed.  Interesting.

So then I tried to buy the game Medieval 2 which is been extensively reviewed and is advertised as available 12/00 in Chips and Bits. It's not available. But it can be downloaded. Only they don't tell you much about how to do that and I ended paying for the code key to activate the game before I managed to download it. Which is going to take forever anyway.

Ecommerce is VERY confusing, even for me. Amazon is about the only place I know that has come close to getting it right and they are not making a profit. Fascinating.

Trying to go back to Incredible Simulations to actually download the game I have paid for through BIGSTEP I find that BigStep isn't through with me, not by a long shot, and they keep popping up in the way, and then sending page not available screens.  This is insane. You have to be DETERMINED to do business with Incredible Simulations. Why?

I also find that operating with multiple computers is not working well because I want to download using GETRIGHT, but that isn't installed on the Pentium IV I want to download to. With Getright I could Queue up the whole pile of things to download and forget it; eventually they'd all be there. Without it I have to do it one at a time. But I don't know how to transfer Getright from one machine to another, and I suspect their paranoia will prevent it. If it doesn't, the whole atmosphere of preventing you from transferring things from one machine to another is still poisoning the well.

I suspect I am just bilious today, but it seems to take forever to do simple things that ought to be done in minutes.

It gets worse. Trying to connect to the Pentium IV I find it wants a password I don't have. It thinks it is part of my network, but I suspect that in one or another iteration of changing network names and going back to them again, this got stuck out in the cold. The only way to get out of that is to go back and reset the machine a couple of times (remove it from what it currently thinks is its network domain, reset, add it back to the domain, reset again.)  One of the "benefits" of Windows 2000. But all I really need is a peer to peer file transfer.  Fat chance.  With 98 or even the execrable Me this would be no problem, but 2000 wants to do things the "professional way" but it will not make it easy to do that. So it goes, I guess, but it is enough to use up more time than I wanted to put into this. Computers don't raise productivity; or rather they do, but they have to, because they waste so much of your time getting them to do whatever you wanted that they have to do it fast once they get started or we would never get ANYTHING done. (AND please don't write me about how simple it would all be if I just used Apple Mac because we just went through a bout of that getting Roberta's Power Mac to print. On an Apple LaserWriter. Simple. Yeah. Sure.)

The weird part is that from the Pentium IV machine I can in fact map drives on other Windows 2000 machines, but none of them can see the Pentium IV. It's not a simple matter of shutting down and starting over either because this morning I shut down the Pentium IV to make it quieter in here for the Techweb broadcast taping. So it has been restarted, and recently, and it sees the network, and the network sees it, but it can get to the network and the network can't get to it, and I am getting VERY weary "proper" networking that "does things right" as opposed to the old fashioned peer to peer that's all so very wrong but lets you actually do your work. I know, I know, once I get the network "right" all will be well and I will love it. Sure.

And in fact that is so. It is a matter of plugging along.

First I tell Forrie (The Pentium IV machine) that it is no longer a member of CHAOSMANOR.JERRYPOURNELLE.COM even though it thinks it is, and the other systems don't think it is. Note the security situation: until I fixed these matters, Forrie could get at any system on the network, and transfer files from any place on the network that its current user (a power user) could get to. However, no one including the administrator could get at Forrie.

So I made Forrie part of a workgroup, which removed him from the domain. Reset. Put him back on the domain (and use the administrator and password when it asks by why right I am adding a machine to the domain), and reset yet one more time. And Bingo: now Forrie can get at other machines, and other machines can get at Forrie, and all is well.

The anomaly described in the first paragraph came about because Forrie was properly part of the Chaosmanor domain before we scrubbed the domain server and started over, giving the new domain the same name the old one had. After that, the only times I needed to transfer files to Forrie I did it from within Forrie, so I never noticed that although he thought he was part of the domain, he wasn't, not really; and in fact I ought not have been able to transfer files TO Forrie from within Forrie. The rest of the domain saw Forrie as not a member and wanted passwords. Forrie blissfully went along thinking he was part of the domain.

Now all is set properly, it all works, and I am happy enough with the situation, but have I found a hole in Windows 2000 security? There ought to have been NO WAY that Forrie could map a drive on a domain he wasn't really part of, but I could and did do that from Forrie to the outside world (but could not map or access any Forrie drive even though Forrie thought he was sharing, and now does share without my changing anything. Very interesting.

It's not a hole likely to come up: how many places scrub the domain server and reinstall a new domain with the identical name to the old? But if you do, be aware, machines that were part of the old and appear not to be part of the new if you try to access them through the new domain, CAN GET AT FILES ON THE NEW DOMAIN just as always.  Very interesting.

And I was wrong about Getright. All I had to do (once I could do it) was copy the GETRIGHT directory in PROGRAM FILES to Forrie and run getright.exe.  I will set that into the startup folder for the future. Works fine. I am now downloading the Battle of Hastings under GetRIGHT.

 

And for some comments on what was going on with Windows 2000 see mail.

 

 

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Thursday, January 11, 2000

We had a heck of a rainstorm last night, with high winds. I was down at the local shopping center -- Studio City is a village and we don't really have "malls" -- putting dog food in the Explorer when a gust of wind broke my Microsoft Umbrella right at the handle, leaving me holding a curved piece of wood and naught else. The rest of the umbrella went skating away into the distance. It may be in Ventura County by now. If any of you are Microsofties with access to the umbrella cache, I liked that one a lot and I'd sure like to get another.

I suspect that was the gust that did it to us. I had a few minutes in the drug store, then when I drove home (only a couple of blocks and normally I walk to the Von's/Savon complex but it was raining and I buy dog food in 50 pound bags) there were red flares at the corner down by the Japanese University campus that used to be Corvallis Sacred Heart High School. (I keep contemplating doing a spot of teaching there; the school is part university and part finishing school for young Japanese undergrads to get used to American ways, which they do; they have been good neighbors although one night I saw three boys giving one of their coed student companions a fast ride down the street in a Von's shopping cart. Shocking.)

The University had lights, but everything else in the Studio City Triangle -- about 8 square blocks, all residential -- was dark. With one exception. Ed Begley, Jr.'s house was lit up and the TV was on. Ed has solar power panels on the roof and batteries in the garage and claims to be off the grid, and he sure was last night.

I went home and found all the APC UPS's were beeping and squealing  but all the systems were waiting to be shut down, so I did that. All went down in an orderly manner. 

Then I put on rain gear and Sasha the Siberian Husky and I went out to investigate. A tree was down across the power lines. The house is one I very nearly bought 30+ years ago instead of the one I have. Like mine it has been extensively remodeled. It's owned by a chap who used to be one of the regulars on CHEERS, and I'm sure he will be annoyed that I don't recall his name, but he probably doesn't look at this web site anyway. Between the time I thought of buying that house and the present ownership it was owned by a family who kept a llama and an ostrich in the back yard and it was pretty odd seeing that pair looking at you over the gate. (Across the street from that house is a veterinarian who keeps a pair of dogs and several cages full of very large and very loud parrots ranging in color from pure white to sailor-parrot green. Maybe there's something about that intersection?)

The tree, a big pine or fir maybe 60 feet tall, was at about a 45 degree angle resting on the power lines, two lines were in the street sparking, the tree had caught fire but the rain put it out, and it was raining and storming like crazy. A lone fireman was trying to keep people from driving through the intersection where the lines were down, but he'd run out of flares and had sent the unit back to get more, and he wasn't about to stand out in that intersection. And people kept driving through it. No one was hurt by the Grace of God, but that's the only reason I think no one was fried. Those were high power lines, not house feeders.

This was about 9 PM and it was pretty clear they weren't going to get THAT fixed by morning, so we went to bed early. We had flashlights and unlike after the earthquake the gas stove worked (needed to be lit by a match, since this is a new one that doesn't have pilots, and the spark ignition wasn't going to be working...) We had hot water, and gas heat, just no power.

Went down this morning to see the progress and our splendid DWP workers -- whatever one wants to say about private vs. public power, I have zero complaints about the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and I've felt that way since I was deputy mayor of the city -- were out in force with cherry pickers. "Couple of hours more," they said. They had sawed the tree into logs and were now working on the wires. It wasn't raining just then but it began to rain again as we walked home.

We had a nice neighborhood meeting with Ed Begley out to gloat -- as well he might, and he was very good natured about it -- and the rest of us telling him we were going to invite ourselves to his house to watch TV. And about an hour ago the power came on, some 14 hours after it went off.

You would think bringing up my system would be straightforward, and it would have been, except that the servers did not respond to the keyboards, and Roberta was getting no video from hers.

To make the story short: my servers in the cable room are on a Belkin 8-unit KVM, and Roberta downstairs has two machines on a 2-unit Belkin and in both cases the remedy turned out to be simple.

Power everything down. 

Turn on the Belkin KVM units.  Let them WARM UP for several minutes. Now turn on your computers. All will be well.

Or will be if you have not recently scrubbed your domain server and reinstalled Windows 2000 Server with the same domain name as the one you scrubbed, in which case you may find some logon problems with some of your machines that have not been reconfigured to the new domain -- because even though the name is the same, it is a NEW DOMAIN and everything has to be taken off the old into some neutral state, then put back on the new domain. I found several machines that hadn't been done with and which hadn't been reset since the change. But all is well now, the Rebel Netwinder came up and attached to the web (and I am about to call Pac Bell about a t-1 line) and here we are. And we are whole here.

But don't forget to WARM UP your KVM units before feeding computer signals to them. 


Some very interesting mail today. Including from Carol Iannone.

 

 

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Friday, January 12, 2000

I am sure the world has gone mad. Just read any newspaper.

MacCaffrey, after damn near destroying the country, now thinks maybe the war on drugs wasn't such a good idea. Suddenly we have discovered that we get more oil from Venezuela than from all the Gulf states combined, and more from Colombia than from any one of them, and maybe, just maybe, depicting the Venezuelan President as undemocratic scum for not allowing us to carry on "hot pursuit" with military aircraft, and do search and destroy missions, in his country might not have been such a wonderful idea. Gee.

One definition of insanity is to continue doing things that don't work over and over again in the hopes that this time for sure.

We can increase mandatory sentences for drug dealing. This time for sure.

New York's schools are just awful, so the courts are saying they must spend more money on them. This time for sure.

New York spends $9500 per pupil per year on schools. Think about that for a while. Now true, some of that goes for "special education." Let's assume it takes $5,000 a year per pupil to handle really special cases (it doesn't but suppose it does). Take $450,000 and 100 randomly chosen "normal" (meaning not needing 'special ed') children in New York City. Use that money to hire facilities, hire teachers, give them free lunches, and give them an education. Stipulate that for any student who can't pass a test a grade level above the one that student passed to get into the grade, $5,000 will be taken from the payment.

Is there anyone here doesn't think he or she could get filthy rich doing that? I know I could. Or simpler: give me $950,000 and 100 kids chosen at random from the NYC public school system. For every kid who gains a grade level in a year (as measured by current standards) then I keep the money. If any don't, I given them the kid back and ten grand. I'd get rich, most of the kids would be educated, and the school district would have its money back for those I didn't manage to educate.

But that would encourage "cherry picking." I doubt it but so what? At the moment we have a system that sees to it that none get a good education, many get a lousy one, and more get next to nothing. At least under my system SOME would be taught. Or devise your own. But at $9500 per kid the one thing not needed is more money and anyone who says he can't understand that is on the take or so dumb as to justify not listening to them any more.

And China says we shouldn't build defense of the US because those are counter to the trend of the times, and might neutralize their own strategic weapons capability (read threats).  Well, DUH!!

I could go one right out of the newspaper but I weary of this. They've all gone mad.


New GeForce2 boards from nVIDIA arrived today. I'll put one in one of the megahertz Pentium systems and compare to the AMD Athlon which has one of those boards.  That ought to be fun. Let the triangles/dollar contest begin.

Been playing Baldur's Gate II.  Anyone who does that without downloading an editor and upping the character's stats has more time and patience than I have. It's an interesting game, but I weary of having to fight, go rest and heal up, come back and fight some more...  The story line is good, but the characters are far too puny given the story line. Inconsistent it is.

COMMENTARY ON EDUCATION in mail.

 

Just returned from A. J. Budrys's 70th birthday party at the Author of the Future headquarters. I didn't take my camera which was stupid. Algys looks good and feels good. Budrys is one of the best among us, and I think the best critic science fiction ever produced.

His SOME WILL NOT DIE is one of the few novels that looks at the hero who might be a villain; it stemmed from Algys being present in Danzing during the Danzig crisis. I think it is his best book although it is not his most prominent. 

His father was prominent in the Lithuanian government in exile from 1940 to 1970 or so. 

Happy Birthday, AJ. And many more of them.

 

 

 

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Saturday, January 13, 2000

Last night at dinner (AJ Budrys's 70th birthday party) Craig Miller asked me if I knew what "IT" was. I had to confess that I had never heard of  "IT" which turns out to be a Dave Kamens invention that is, according to Steve Jobs and other backers, going to revolutionize civilization. Also code named Ginger, it's going to require redesigning cities, which, according to Jobs. all you have to do is see it to realize that we ought to rebuild our cities to accommodate it.

That's all third party reporting and I doubt Steve Jobs is quite that naive. Anyway last night I looked for reference to Kamens and IT and got a report on a quarter of a million dollar book deal about this device which won't be released until late this year. That's impressive but not enough to change the world. It's not even all that large an advance for an unwritten book. These things are usually structured at about 1/4 on signing, another on 1/4 on delivery, another 1/4 on hardback publication, and the last payment on paperback publication. Some contracts get more up front but oddly enough those are usually larger and a quarter million.

 

This morning a search produced the Drudge Report, which says that "IT" or "Ginger" is a motor-powered unicycle scooter, sort of a Razor scooter with some differences.  There's a drawing on the Drudge site. I have no idea whether or not Drudge is joking. He doesn't usually make that kind of joke, and this comes from a patent application which seems to be associated with the IT promotion group. If he is putting us on he's doing it with a straight face. Which doesn't mean that he can't be had by jokesters, for that matter.

I say all this because, although I had not heard of it -- where was I that I missed it all?  -- there has been so much buzz about "Ginger" and "IT" and how it was going to change the world. Now "it" turns out to be a low-powered relatively short range personal transport system?

I thought we had an invention that would work as a personal transport system within cities. It's called "legs". Some don't have the use of them and use "wheel chairs" and we have rebuilt many cities -- Berkeley, California being the prime example -- to make life easy for people who are confined to them and who can't use legs, but "legs" remain the standard transport. Most of us know how to use them, and they are not easily forgotten or stolen.

 Over the years our personal "walking radius" -- the distance we will walk rather than resort to automobiles or other powered transport -- has got smaller and smaller. In my case I substituted a bicycle, which is a bit more convenient than a unicycle scooter because my bicycle has a basket on it. But in Studio City I can walk most places, and those I would not walk to because of distance I wouldn't take a powered velocipede either: as for instance to my laundry/tailor which is a couple of miles away, close enough for a bicycle but it's awkward to be carrying my freshly cleaned and pressed tuxedo on a bicycle, and I am sure it would be doubly so on a powered scooter. And of course I take a car rather than legs or a bicycle when it is raining.

I expect Drudge is having a joke. I hope Drudge is having a joke. But then there is the wonderful Aesop fable about "The Mountain in Labor". I recall reading it at an early enough age that I had to ask my mother what "labor" meant, and that led to my having to be told things children my age were not, in those times, supposed to be aware of. But that was in a different country.

I do not think powered unicycle scooters or powered scooters in general will very much change the world, but perhaps I live in a restricted part of it, and there are places where much energy would be saved by them. Perhaps.  But I also notice that  my energy aware neighbor, Ed Begley Jr., has got himself a dual-fuel car rather than his older all-electric, since the baby came; and I don't see him much on his electric-power  boosted bicycle anymore. (Understand, this is not intended as putting down Ed. His house generates all the electricity he uses through its solar panels, so he's not being inconsistent when he experiments with alternate forms of transportation.  

Incidentally Ed tells me that solar power shingles for your roof are down to about $3 bucks a watt, and you have to cover your roof with something. Without battery storage you'd have to use the power as fast as generated, but on a hot day it could certainly contribute to your cooling: both by absorbing the energy before it gets to your house, and by helping run the air conditioner, which in LA at least you only need when the sun is shining...)

Of course that "Watt" will need defining. I suspect it means 1 Watt/hour at high noon, clear skies. The average will be considerably less. Be generous: assume we can get 1/2 Watt/hour for an average of 8 hours a day.  Then we have 4 Watt/hours/day. In 1000 days we will have 4 KiloWatt Hours, or 250 days for 1 KW/Hr. I believe electricity sells for under $1 KiloWatt/Hr, but I have not priced it recently. Certainly it's not a lot more than that. It was 1.5 cents a KW/Hr when I was a kid and it was TVA power, and the price was remarkably stable during those years of inflation by a factor of ten to 100 on nearly everything else since my childhood. (Kerosene was 10 cents a gallon in 1944, during the War.)

I am not sure that $3.00/Watt solar cells are all that good an investment. I suspect that new power sources, including space solar power, would have a greater payoff both in environment and return on investment. Some discussion in mail.


Jerry,

found a reference to this http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/01/12/airborne.laser/index.html  item over on slashdot. Thought that you might be interested, and have some thoughtful commentary.

john

This is one of several notes I have on this. The referenced report is a bit breathless. I have been aboard an airplane equipped with that, and I was the keynoter at the Directed Energy symposium last Fall. All this is still in the labs, but yes, it can be made into an operational weapon. It's boost phase of course with a limited range; but it should work in a SCUD environment. USAF found and destroyed exactly zero unlaunched SCUDS during the Gulf War.


All evening working on getting installation versions of the Windows version of Roberta's reading instruction program. So far it works fine on Windows 95, 98, and ME in 32 bit color, OK in other resolutions except some color transparencies aren't what they ought to be but it is usable, and not at all in Windows 2000. Still, the number of machines that have a CDROM drive but not 32-bit color isn't large, and Windows 2000 is a lot less widely distributed particularly in schools and home school situations than the other versions of Windows.

The program is self administering: that is, once the pupil learns a bit about rules and mouse clicking and such, it works pretty well unattended, with the vocal instructions done by Roberta. Sound levels aren't as uniform as I like, but they're all adequate. And 70 lessons of about half an hour each and anyone can read any word in the English language. 

The old DOS version works too, but that requires a tutor -- someone who can read to read the lessons off the screen to the non-reader. It works well, and for those who are looking for an excuse to spend some quality time with a child it's pretty good, but we are astonished at how few seem willing to put in half an hour a day (per kid) to be sure their kids can read. (Read: look at a word like Constantinople and SAY it properly; more to the point a word like Oldsmobile or birthday or Dalmatian which is likely to be in the speaking vocabulary and say it thus putting all speaking vocabulary words into the reading vocabulary.)

The Mac version uses the Mac's text-to-speech engine to read the instructions and thus doesn't need an instructor. The Windows version is more or less a conversion of the Mac version except that the sounds are all on CD-ROM recorded by Roberta.

And after years of work it looks to be nearly done.

 

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Sunday, January 14, 2000

With any luck we will get the Great Hall cleared out even better and I'll have the bills paid by tonight. And my desk cleared off. There's no reason papers can't age in a red box in the back room rather than on my desk...

 

 

 

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