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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 110: July 17 - 23, 2000

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This is a day book. It's not all that well edited. I try to keep this up daily, but sometimes I can't. I'll keep trying. See also the monthly COMPUTING AT CHAOS MANOR column, 4,000 - 7,000 words, depending.  (Older columns here.) For more on what this place is about, please go to the VIEW PAGE.

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Monday  July 17, 2000

It's no great secret that NASA isn't doing very well lately. Part of the problem is a lack of adult supervision. Much of it is simple ossification.

The one organization that has been consistently right about the salutation is the Space Access Society. They now have an important report. If you are at all interested in mankind's future in space, go read that. Now. And tell your friends.

http://www.space-access.org/updates/sau94.html 

While you're there you might poke about the web site and see what else is there. 


We go back to Studio City tomorrow.

 

 

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Tuesday, July 18, 2000

We are home. I still have a zillion things to do.

 

 

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Wednesday, July 19, 2000

Roland tells me that the Microsoft security bug is real, but the fix is fairly simple. The security hole is similar to ones in UNIX systems and is called a "buffer overflow exploit", caused by a programmer not properly checking ranges of values.  (One reason I always preferred Modula and other languages with range checking on compilation, but that's another matter.)

The problem is in INETCOMM.DLL and can be fixed by either downloading Internet Explorer 5.5 and installing it, or getting the INETCOMM.DLL fromversion 5.5 and substituting it in your system. This may require some registry diddling for NT. We expect Microsoft to have something comprehensive on this shortly.

You can also see

http://www.sans.org/newlook/resources/win_flaw.htm for other fixes to security issues. 

All these measures are simple enough. Just DO them.


Roland points me to:

http://unisci.com/stories/20003/0718001.htm 

which discusses physics and multiple dimensions and why gravity is weak, and gets into string theory. I confess I haven't paid a very great deal of attention to string theory. I'm afraid my head will explode. I suppose I could tool up to learn -- I once spent an afternoon with Penrose as he explained Twistors to Niven, Poul Anderson, Bob Forward, and me -- but my suspicion is that none of these theories are right, and like the new theories of the brain that come out every year or so, they're wrong and you don't need to learn them unless that's your business.

Long time readers of my stuff will recall I used to speculate on brain models and the like. Marvin Minsky took me aside one day. "They're wrong," he said. "We don't know enough to have a good theory yet. You don't have to follow that stuff because it will all be wrong."  He was right of course and I saved myself 20 years of close study by taking his advice...


My new column on strategic defense will be up on www.intellectualcapital.com tomorrow (Thursday).

 

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Thursday, July 20, 2000

Barak and Arafat remain at Camp David. Were I either of them, I'd rather be there than back home, too. Ah. I hear Albright is chairing the meetings now. Maybe not.

What does anyone expect of these "peace talks"? Peace is what happens when it's a better alternative than war. Neither side here is at that state: Israel will give up Jerusalem to the Arabs when the Jews forget Jerusalem. Despite The Press. (I am reminded of Kipling's rollicking poem, with the refrain "The Jews will forget Jerusalem before we forget the press...")  When I was in Jerusalem, we had a meeting with the various bishops -- Roman (Melkite) , Armenian, Anglican, Methodist, Lutheran) who were all convinced that the only fair way to run the Old City was to have an International Commission to do it. It would also need plenty of outside money, but that they could probably raise: appeals to their congregations to rebuild Jerusalem would likely be successful: they have in the past, which is how many of the splendid churches were built in the days when the Turks ran the city. 

Their arguments for an International Commission were that politically no Israeli government can be fair in the face of Jewish settlements -- while we were there, several Christian properties were seized by radical Jewish groups, and the Israeli government was dithering on what to do about what was, under Israeli law, a naked act of theft -- nor could any Arab government be fair and survive.

But while an International Commission might or might not be capable of governing fairly given enough money to pay for professional police, it isn't going to happen. Arafat wants the city for a capital (odd, it never was a capital city of any nation since the Roman occupation before the Christian Era). He can't allow it to fall in the hands of an international commission which would likely be dominated by Christians (that's where the money would come from). He'd be assassinated in six weeks. No Israeli government could give up the Old City even if Israel retained sovereignty over Temple Mount. The government would fall within hours.

So even assuming both sides WANT some kind of end to the Jerusalem impasse, there's no realistic path from here to there. No one will impose a solution by force (even if privately both Arafat and Barak might wish for that). And there we are, and there we will remain. 

Meanwhile, the US sends vast sums to Israel to prop up their socialist government, and one supposes Clinton will promise more, to both sides, if he can get even the illusion of an agreement. 

On the strategic side, any Israeli government that gives up the Golan Heights has a death wish. Morally, it's hard to justify making the west side of the Jordan Valley a minefield and desert (which it is today: "they made a desolation and called it peace"); strategically one tries in vain to find plausible alternatives.

And so it goes. "But it's the Middle East..." (For discussion of this see mail.)


Then there is:

Dr. Pournelle:

Re your latest Intellectual Capital article. While I agree with you, Jef Raskin has a different (and interesting) point of view:

http://www.jefraskin.com/piper_cub_offense.html 

Akiva Atwood

which points to an exercise in silliness. Does anyone really believe that China would threaten destruction of San Francisco by Piper Cub if we arm Taiwan?  No one REALLY believes in junk like this, they just say it to avoid having to tackle hard issues. I don't know Jef Raskin  but I doubt he truly believes it's harder to intercept a piper cub than an ICBM. But until you can intercept the missile is there any point in defending against other delivery systems?

Wars don't happen out of the blue. See Strategy of Technology on the subject of Surprise. Sneak attacks are fun to write about but in the real world one has some idea of who the enemy is and what his capabilities are. I can go cook up a quart of botulin spores; given time I could make enough to kill every vertebrate creature on Earth, and I suppose I could send them as a cloud of yellow dust in a mass mailer. And what does that have to do with ICBM's?

Strategic missile defenses don't solve all problems. Neither does anything else. A bit more in mail...

And thanks to Alan Anderson for this link:

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment072000c.html 

which has some cool stuff on star formation and the like.

 

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Friday, July 21, 2000

It was hot in Los Angeles.  Indeed.

Over in mail, Bob Thompson wonders if someone is trying to sabotage The Burning City. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised. This is what happens today, and there's not a lot to be done about it. As the sales people at the old paper BYTE used to tell me, They charged premium rates for ads on pages facing my column, because "a lot of readers like you and a lot of them hate you, but they all read you," which was about all I could expect. I am a bit surprised at sales, which are lower than we'd expected: much of this genre gets its best sales in hard cover. But that partly depends on what season it's published in, too. 

Burning City isn't like any other book we've done. The next two books in the series are more for fun (although being Niven and me we won't be able to keep our views of the world to ourselves), but Burning City was begun by Niven in white heat. He was going to do it alone and tried for about 6 years before he asked me in on it. It took a couple more years to do it right.

Books heavy with "commentary" run the risk of being boring as hell. The trick is to keep the characters believing they are in an odd kind of heroic fantasy, one without silly quests and a big foozle who has to be killed to save the world, but still an heroic fantasy: that they're important and not their thoughts and views, and certainly not those of the authors. I think we accomplished that, and reading the poison pen reviews makes me fairly certain of it.

Ah well. I have other work to do. Thinks to all those who did like the book and said so. And if you want to buy a copy, this might be a good time...


Meanwhile, out in the real world, there's a whole bunch of stuff going on in physics that's just complex enough that I'm going to let the dust settle; some new evidence that we know precisely what "g" is and where it is located in the brain, which if true is going to spark a civil war among social scientists; and Greg Cochrane is forging ahead with evidence that a lot of what we thought was hereditary in in fact infectious disease...

I'm angling for some brain and g papers from the principals. 

And should Britain opt out of EU and join NAFTA, and would that be a good idea for the US?

Have crowded brain cells, will be smarter October 25, 1999

Remember those annoying people in school (perhaps even you were one) who studied less, yet always scored higher? Well, it turns out there's a scientific explanation for that phenomena. Researchers at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, have found that some people may have a built-in advantage when it comes to learning - brain cell density.

The prefrontal cortex, located just behind our forehead, is that area of the brain believed to have a major say in how well we learn and remember. According to Sandra Witelson, the lead researcher in the study, the more crowded the cells are in the prefrontal cortex, the better adept we are at performing its functions.

Given that measuring intelligence and then counting brain cells in the tissue is a logistical nightmare, Witelson's sample size was small. She used the brains of four men and five women. She had collected the brains from middle-aged terminal patients who were given intelligence tests prior to their death.

Full text: http://www.exn.net/html/templates/htmlpage.cfm?ID=19991025-53&;Parent=Science 

And then there is

A Measure of Intelligence Scientists Say Brain Scans Show Locus For Basic Intelligence A team of researchers says general intelligence may reside in one part of the brain. (Science magazine)

By Willow Lawson

July 20 - Test preparation courses may be a waste of money after all. A study published today in the journal Science suggests there could be a biological basis for what scientists call "general intelligence." The team of European researchers says it has identified one brain region, rather than many, that may be at the core of problem solving.

Which misses the point: heredity may set an upper limit (one which can be compromised by fetal environment or diseases or a while bunch of environmental factors) but developing the potential isn't all that automatic. Every professor knows the difference between the two kinds of "B" students: A smart but not working, and C smart but working very hard indeed.  And sometimes that slower student wins through hard work.

There's a pointer to a summary of materials on this in mail.

And more. If today's mail doesn't have enough for you to think about, I give up. 

If you haven't subscribed or renewed in a year, this would be a good time...

 

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Saturday, July 22, 2000

I will try this weekend to get together a letter for subscribers. My apologies: it has been a while. Things get backed up here, and I run out of creative energy after a while... ANd my desk is piled high with junk that has to be cleaned off. Want me to send a picture?  Sigh.  But I will get at it. Thanks to all those who renewed recently.

There is a dialogue with Moshe Bar on Jerusalem in mail.

And an interesting commentary on the nature of human nature, also in mail...

Hurrah! My test mailer to subscribers went out: I am getting some "bad address" returns, and they will be posted on my badmail page by Monday (don't look there yet, I haven't done it yet).  If you subscribe, did not get the test mailing, and by Sunday night your name is not on the badmail page, please tell me, indicating when and how you subscribed.

I will send a REAL subscribers only message sometime this weekend. THANKS to all of you.

 

 

 

 

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Sunday, July 24, 2000

Alex came over and we did a long hike, first good exercise I have had in a week. Dinner in Santa Monica with Earthlink founder Sky Dayton and Reason Foundation founder Robert Poole. Purely social, but that uses up Sunday.

Lots of BADMAIL returns from my mailer to subscribers. If you subscribe and did not get a mailing this weekend (actually TWO mailings) look at badmail and see if your name is there. If it is NOT there, and you did NOT get the mailing, please send me details: when you subscribed, and how. My mailing list should be up to date as of evening July 22, 2000. I haven't got the ones that came in this weekend.

 

 

 

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