picture of me

Chaos Manor Home Page> Mail Home Page  > View Home Page > Current View > Chaos Manor Reviews Home Page

CHAOS MANOR MAIL

Mail 634 August 2 - 8, 2010

For CHAOS MANOR REVIEWS click here

 

HOME

VIEW

MAIL

Columns

BOOK Reviews

Chaos Manor Reviews

read book now

emailblimp.gif (23130 bytes)mailto:jerryp@jerrypournelle.com

CLICK ON THE BLIMP TO SEND MAIL TO ME. Mail sent to me may be published.

LAST WEEK                             NEXT WEEK

FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE

This page looks better if you set the default text to Georgia.

Atom FEED from Chaos Manor

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Highlights this week:

 

  If you send mail, it may be published. See below. For boiler plate, instructions, and how to pay for this place, see below.

line6.gif (917 bytes)

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Monday  August 2, 2010

China, free trade, and intellectual property 

 The problem with free trade between the U.S. and China is not a problem with free trade, per se. The problem is with the Chinese "local content" laws coupled with the lack of intellectual property protection within China (or the ineffective enforcement of same, which amounts to the same thing).

In most cases, if a U.S. company wishes to sell product in China, they must include a certain percentage of components manufactured in China, which essentially means the product must be assembled at a factory in China. This reduces the value-add for the U.S. company. In addition, the attitude toward intellectual property in China is, shall we say, cavalier. I have received first-hand reports of negotiations in which the terms of trade were "You have to assemble it here, I'm going to steal it from you anyway, why don't you just give it to me in exchange for a small royalty?". And of course, there's no way to verify the royalty was paid properly. I doubt very much that this does China much good in the medium-to-long run, but it certainly prevents U.S. exporters from evening out the balance of trade.

These amount to extremely high protective tariffs (although they are in-kind taxes, rather than payment in cash). Given that the U.S. is free-entry trade zone for China with essentially a pegged currency regime, China will eventually have to eliminate its trade barriers or lose the free-trade privileges. I think this has to be managed very carefully in order to avoid disaster, but I fear it is not being managed at all by either side, and a terrible outcome will be the result.

Anonymous

Indeed. As you say, it is not being managed at all.

============

the forgotten generation

Jerry,

You often talk about the kids on the left side of the Bell curve.

You seem to be one of the few commentators who care about them.

It is just as bad here in Australia.

Officially, Unemployment is only 5-6 percent, but among young people it is above 20 percent.

Nobody cares.

Recently, I got a surprise. Actually an article surfaced in an MSM paper.

The writer, Tim Colebatch in “The Age” mentioned that Australia has the most “disengaged” workforce in the OECD.

(a lower percentage of working age (16-60) in education, working or looking for work than any other 1st world country)

(which is a great way to make your unemployment statistics look good!)

And he mentioned the youth unemployment problem.

The surprise was that the “best” country in this measure was Switzerland.

Switzerland is the forgotten example in many things. It is high on many “quality of life” factors.

Why don’t MSM commentators ever refer to Switzerland?

Is it because it has the most decentralised government system?

Is it because there is a gun in every Swiss family home?

Why is the Swiss model never quoted for repairing broken constitutions, eg Afghanistan?

I asked a Swiss person I met at a party here in Melbourne.

She said, “oh, they are all hopelessly conservative over there”

Lucky Swiss.

Richard Hill

A Republic cannot exist when large numbers of its inhabitants make no contribution to the economy. Such people cannot properly be thought of as citizens. What do you do for a living? I vote for people to give me entitlements...

==============

Letter from England

The silly season--a few miscellaneous stories. Very quiet here.

 Welfare revolution being plotted: <http://tinyurl.com/2v62ah6>

 ASBOs criticised as being imposed top-down: <http://tinyurl.com/328mmvz>

 UAE to suspend Blackberries (probably because they're too secure): <http://tinyurl.com/34cn7wp>

 TOR researcher detained <http://tinyurl.com/3ahlx3k>

 Hired guns in malpractice: <http://tinyurl.com/2utrpfa>

 Coalition budget challenged as anti-women: <http://tinyurl.com/2uoadfc>

 Harry Erwin, PhD

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

============

Cluster munitions

Jerry,

The problem with the cluster munitions ban, from a pure operational perspective, is that they are just so damned effective. Everyone talks about the downside of cluster bombs but nobody wants to point out that we have some REALLY good ones in our inventory, and a single pass by a couple of fighters (or bombers) over even a slightly dispersed a tank column could reasonably end with the near complete destruction of said column. Without cluster munitions, we have to go back to vehicle convoy attack tactics first seen in World War I, blowing up the first and last tanks in the first pass, then hanging around long enough to plink them one by one before they scatter or shoot down the attacking aircraft. With cluster bombs, one pass haul ass is far more effective with a dramatically increased chance that the attacking aircraft and crew will survive.

I'm not an expert in ground warfare but the same considerations may be valid for various types of ground-based fires available to the Army, Navy, and Marines. The obvious additional consideration is that friendly forces must often walk through across ground recently held by the enemy, and minefields generally work both coming and going. So it seems reasonable that ground troops aren't nearly as fond of cluster munitions as the fliers are.

Still, I'm not the guy who gets to clean up the horrific mess cluster munitions leave on the battlefield, so the ban is probably for the best. And we aren't exactly shredding the designs so we can always start up production again if we ever find ourselves faced with a few thousand tanks that need killing.

On a related note, did anyone notice the reports that the Russians never really complied with START? Is anyone naive enough to believe everyone will comply with this particular ban?

Sean

I know that the USSR built a battle management phased array radar in blatant violation of the ABM treaty. But that was the USSR, not Russia. Now we can trust and don't need to verify. Or so it seems.

=============

Warriors and the USAF

Jerry,

This is long but a short answer wouldn't tell even 1% of the story.

Regarding the new emphasis on the warrior mentality in the USAF... Even if one believes that it is "too far" of an attitude shift for the uniquely American volunteer force, it must be acknowledged that it is a necessary swing from the dysfunctional "chair force" attitude perpetuated in the USAF as recently as 8 years ago (in my experience). A historian could probably lay down a clear timeline of how the transformation has taken place, going back so far as re-implementing warrior weekends at the USAF academy in the early '90s, teaching "mobility 101" (how to deploy without leaving your toothbrush at home) as early as possible to ALL USAF members, to our lives being spiced up by almost bi-annual changes to the USAF fitness standards.

The fact that the USAF is *still* deploying officer and enlisted airmen to Iraq and Afghanistan to fill wartime roles delegated to the Army in title 10, is also a large part of the absolutely 100% justified shift towards the warrior mentality. The old-school out of shape chair-force clerk (who couldn't imagine actually SHOOTING someone) simply can't survive in today's USAF if for no other reason than they'd suffer heat stroke wearing body armor in the desert when they deploy as an Army augmentee.

Still, I find it greatly amusing that someone just noticed that the USAF has some warrior airmen. During my first assignment back in 1996, long before the service-wide shift in attitude noted in the article, we sang ancient songs of valor in our fighter bars. Well, most of those songs of valor involved drinking, women, and friends of ours who had busted their ass in some exceptional manner, but some dated back to World War I and that seems ancient enough for me. Even in that force draw-down era where the USAF had thousands of finance and personnel airmen who could reasonably expect to never deploy anywhere more hostile than Texas, there were portions of the USAF that knew we had better be ready to go to war at any time. That resulted in a certain attitude among "operators" that was alien to much of the USAF. That situation simply couldn't continue after 9/11 because suddenly EVERYONE in the USAF had the potential to get neck-deep in combat operations, regardless of their specialty code or prior training.

An anecdote on a positive aspect of the "new" warrior mentality in the USAF... After re-organizing our flying training wing by splitting 2 oversized (NATO manned) squadrons into 4 smaller ones, we found that we had an extra room in our operations building. As a result, we finally got approval and funding for a squadron "heritage room" *cough* bar *cough*. It is traditionally appointed with hardwood floors and paneling complete with inlaid squadron patches and other decorations of historical significance. Most importantly, it has a crud table right in the middle of room (flanked by surplus ejection seats). We've been trying to get this room approved and funded for years (more than a decade in my direct experience), and now thanks to a minor shift in attitude in our service our crusty old NATO instructor pilots now have a suitable venue to pass along some of the warrior culture that has provided a spiritual, moral, and ethical backbone for our aviators (of all nations) since World War I. I've had the good fortune to be hanging out in one of our squadron bars when a WWII Luftwaffe veteran and a USAAF veteran sat down for a few drinks, and the experience was uniquely memorable.

We need to be able to do this otherwise we are little more than a flying club that might get shot at from time to time, and our country doesn't need that. Even the USAF needs warriors.

Sean

============

Re: Sounds like a bit character from one of your novels

Dr Pournelle

Mr Bruce F. Webster wrote that his first response to Prof William Astore's (LtCol, USAF, Ret.) rejection of the 'warrior' appellation was "Well, yeah, that's the Air Force for you."

I was a young captain when the Air Force began Project Warrior to increase the war-fighting spirit among the men in blue. I hated it. I was not a warrior and had no desire to degrade myself to that level. I was a soldier and proud of it.

To me, a warrior is a brigand who fights for glory, plunder, and pillage. A soldier is a disciplined technician in the application of violence who fights when need be to defend his home, his country, and his way of life. A soldier does not glory in war, but he recognizes that it is sometimes necessary.

Maybe I do not make myself clear. Would examples be better?

Attila the Hun was a warrior. Cincinnatus was a soldier.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith.

=============

Re: North Korean Soccer Team

Jerry,

See the article (text below) at North Korean football team shamed in six-hour public inquiry over World Cup <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/
asia/northkorea/7918468/North-Korean-football-
team-shamed-in-six-hour-public-inquiry-over-World-Cup.html

Regards, George

=================

On Two Year University Degrees 

University report tells the Government what they can do with the proposal. <http://tinyurl.com/36l7hq2

-- Harry Erwin, PhD

Surprise

===========d

 

 

 read book now

 

TOP

CURRENT VIEW     Monday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Tuesday,  August  3, 2010

Escape from Hell unless you are in the UK

Jerry

I was interested to read in your July 25th Mailbag that one of your readers thinks that PDF files can't be searched.

This is the case for those PDF's where each page is essentially an image of the original page, but many ebooks and other PDF's are text based and very searchable - it depends on the options set when creating the file.

Having a large collection of paperback versions of your work (and Larry Niven's) I was interested to see whether I could get some of them as ebooks, so I clicked on your link the Kindle edition of Escape from Hell by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle <http://www.amazon.com/Escape-from-Hell-
ebook/dp/B001QREWRS/jerrypournellcha>  and was a bit depressed to find out that it isn't available in the UK. This is a very frustrating part of buying on the internet, and is sadly a very common occurrence.

After many years Amazon finally made the Kindle available in the UK, and I was happy with my Kindle DX, which is the same size as the Ipad, but a little taken aback to find that you can't use the web browser in the UK.

With the IPad, I am putting off the purchase until such time as the promise "More ebooks than you can read in a lifetime" is fulfilled for the UK, where the selection of ebooks available on IBooks is frankly pitiful.

In my view, you and many other authors are losing out bigtime when items aren't available internationally. You are not only losing sales revenue, but the frustration and anger will tend to diminish your brand overall.

Keep up the good work, and I hope to be able to buy your ebooks soon.

Regards

Andy Brimble

I hope so too. I do not know why Kindle books aren't sold in the UK. I don't have any control over that. 

==============

Arctic cooled to pre-industrial levels from 1950-1990:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/02/arctic_treering_cooling_research/ 

According to a statement issued by the UFZ: What stands out in the data from the Kola Peninsula is that the highest temperatures were found in the period around 1935 and 1955, and that by 1990 the curve had fallen to the 1870 level, which corresponds to the start of the Industrial Age. Since 1990, however, temperatures have increased again ... What is conspicuous about the new data is that the reconstructed minimum temperatures coincide exactly with times of low solar activity. The researchers therefore assume that in the past, solar activity was a significant factor contributing to summer temperature fluctuations in the Arctic. "One thing is certain: this part of the Arctic warmed up after the end of the Little Ice Age around 250 years ago, cooled down from the middle of the last century and has been warming up again since 1990," says Dr Tatjana Böttger, UFZ paleoclimatologist. [emphasis added]

Data – ain’t it inconvenient?

Ed

===========

From my former BYTE tech editor:

Thought you'd find this particular essay interesting (if you've not already seen it):

http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_3_social-science.html 

--rick grehan

Another way of putting the problem is that we have no reliable way to measure counterfactuals—that is, to know what would have happened had we not executed some policy—because so many other factors influence the outcome. This seemingly narrow problem is central to our continuing inability to transform social sciences into actual sciences. Unlike physics or biology, the social sciences have not demonstrated the capacity to produce a substantial body of useful, nonobvious, and reliable predictive rules about what they study—that is, human social behavior, including the impact of proposed government programs.

Pareto used to say that the social sciences always try to study what men ought to do, rather than what they do. Watson and behaviorism tried to remedy that, but does not seem to have had great success.

The missing ingredient is controlled experimentation, which is what allows science positively to settle certain kinds of debates. How do we know that our physical theories concerning the wing are true? In the end, not because of equations on blackboards or compelling speeches by famous physicists but because airplanes stay up. Social scientists may make claims as fascinating and counterintuitive as the proposition that a heavy piece of machinery can fly, but these claims are frequently untested by experiment, which means that debates like the one in 2009 will never be settled. For decades to come, we will continue to be lectured by what are, in effect, Keynesian and non-Keynesian economists.

The article is worthwhile. Thanks.

=========

Murder on the Khyber Pass express, 

Jerry

Spengler's take on the Wikileaks affair - Murder on the Khyber Pass express:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LG27Df05.html 

"Who covered up a scandalous arrangement known to everyone with a casual acquaintance of the situation? The answer is the same as in Agatha Christie's 1934 mystery about murder on the Orient Express, that is, everybody . . . "

As usual, it's complicated. For example: "With 170 million people - more than Russia - and a nuclear arsenal, Pakistan is too big to fail, that is, too big to fail without traumatic consequences for its neighbors. Whether it can be kept from failure is questionable."

Interesting stuff, always.

Ed

The connection between the Pakistani ISI and al Qaeda wasn't very well covered; I know of no one with a real interest in the situation who didn't know all about it, and how we created much of the Taliban during Charlie Wilson's War. Little of the WikiLeak material was news to anyone, and publishing it may have done as much good as harm. What was disastrous was the publication of sources. Most intelligence estimates don't really need classification except that if they are available they give lots of clues about sources. In this case there was more than a clue...

Meanwhile the Israeli air force is practicing long flights at low altitudes and injection of combat forces into mountainous areas.

We live in interesting times.

===========

Monday News 

 The silly season--a few miscellaneous stories. Very quiet here.

 Welfare revolution being plotted: <http://tinyurl.com/2v62ah6>

 ASBOs criticised as being imposed top-down: <http://tinyurl.com/328mmvz>

 UAE to suspend Blackberries (probably because they're too secure): <http://tinyurl.com/34cn7wp>

 TOR researcher detained <http://tinyurl.com/3ahlx3k>

 Hired guns in malpractice: <http://tinyurl.com/2utrpfa>

 Coalition budget challenged as anti-women: <http://tinyurl.com/2uoadfc>

 Harry Erwin, PhD

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

==========

The Creativity Crisis

Quite an interesting article on an important topic for our economic future. Education is key, of course -- and not the sort typically provided by Iron Law institutions.

Regards,

Jim Riticher

The Creativity Crisis

For the first time, research shows that American creativity is declining. What went wrong—and how we can fix it.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/10/the-creativity-crisis.html 

We'll have more on this another time. There have been numerous attempts to foster creativity. Given the current state of the public schools, the best I can say is good luck with that...

====================g

 

For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:

 

 

 read book now

 

TOP

CURRENT VIEW    Tuesday

 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

: A Newbie's Guide to Publishing: The High Cost of Self Promotion

http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/
2010/08/high-cost-of-self-promotion.html 

This is something about self-publishing that is new and deserves careful attention.

Regards,

Francis Hamit

=================

Not mere nostalgia

As a regular Jonah Goldberg reader you've undoubtedly seen (or will in due course) his column dismissing the nostalgia for certain conservative leaders of the recent past:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/
la-oe-goldberg-newright-20100803,0,3157292.column 

The latest example comes from my old National Review colleague David Klinghoffer in this paper. "Once, the iconic figures on the political right were urbane visionaries and builders of institutions — like William F. Buckley <http://www.latimes.com/topic/economy-
business-finance/media/william-f.-buckley-
PECLB004350.topic>  Jr., Irving Kristol and Father Richard John Neuhaus <http://www.latimes.com/topic/
religion-belief/richard-john-neuhaus-
PERLL000173.topic>  , all dead now," Klinghoffer lamented. "Today, far more representative is potty-mouthed Internet entrepreneur Andrew Breitbart."

As someone who knew Buckley and Kristol (and was a brief acquaintance of Neuhaus), I think David's got it wrong.

Goldberg may have a valid point if he's right in how he characterizes the true motivations of the nostalgic commentators he's criticizing. But at least in the case of Buckley I think there was embodied in one person a combination of qualities that comes along rarely and has yet to be rivaled or replaced, which is the conservative who "has it all" -- a visionary approach to the movement, rhetorical gifts, courage and perseverance, and skills in practical politics.

--Mike 

I did not take Goldberg's meaning precisely as you. Of course I knew Buckley, and Kristol and I corresponded. I was one of Russell Kirk's protégés. Possony and I were colleagues. They were giants, and we are the poorer for having lost them.

============

Bleive it or not....

Hi:

Due totally to my lack of eye sight, my access to audio recordings of novels is rather limited. However on Audible.com just a week or two ago there was a sale of older works and being of the kilt wearing type I couldn't pass up a deal. One of the books was Lucifer's Hammer which I mistakenly bought. I was in a hurry and thought the book / novel was about Harley Davison's racing motorcycle from the 70's - 90's, for you see I once raced bikes myself until 18 years ago.

Any how, much to my surprise I began reading the novel. Let me tell you, it ain't about a racing V Twin. However, I hadn't heard of either yourself or co-author but you both are on my radar. What an incredible read… We had a holiday in Canada yesterday and I spent nearly seven hours reading and have a bit to go.

I have a related question, what were your thoughts when Jupiter was hit with the Schumacher / Levie comet? Lucifer's Hammer was only off by two planet's.

I've begun to look through my sources for recorded versions of your work, would you happen to have a list?

Sincerely,

Jim

I really ought to make up a list....  Try Footfall, The Prince, Fallen Angels, and go over to Baen Books and have a look under my name...  Thanks for the kind words. Hammer is indeed an incredible read...

==

Inferno, Burning Tower, & Escape from Hell on Android Kindle

Dr Pournelle

I just purchased all three books for Kindle on my new Android X. Download took seconds and the text is very clear. So far it has turned out to be a great device.

I just finished the first chapter of Burning Tower and like it a lot. Can't wait to finish it later on after work.

Thanks and best regards

===

More Kindle stuff

Dear Doctor Pournelle,

It is possible to search across all the books on the Kindle, by clicking the HOME button and then entering the search term. You can then choose between ‘search my items’ (all my books), ‘store’, ‘google’, ‘wikipedia’, ‘dictionary’ and ‘go to’. I’m not sure what ‘go to’ does, and the browser options only work with a US Kindle.

It is possible to switch the Kindle between a US and an International version, by changing the country in the ‘Manage Your Kindle’ section of ‘Your Account’ at amazon.com. If you set a valid United States address, the browser is enabled. Of course, if you are outside the US when you do this, you may incur additional charges for the international traffic. I haven’t (yet) tried buying a US-only book yet, but I do intend to attempt this soon.

Regards,

Dave Checkley

=============================

Free people are not equal and equal people are not free - but John Rawls wins again as NY Representative Jerrold Nadler wants to equalize tax burden by raising federal taxes where the cost of living is less.

Today's WSJ: The Blue State Blues

Taxing the rich, except in my district.

One irony of the tax increase that arrives on January 1 is that the it will hit residents of high-income, Democratic-leaning states like California, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York the hardest. This is a problem for pro-tax Democrats.

Enter New York Representative Jerrold Nadler, who wants to exempt his own six-figure constituents from the tax hike he supports. Mr. Nadler's bill would "require the IRS to adjust tax brackets proportionally in regions where the average cost of living is higher than the national average."

C

Surprise!

===========

Afghanistan, Pakistan ISI and CIA

What Spengler and most others seem to be completely blind to is that the ISI has been a subsidiary of the CIA in that region for quite a long time.

The madrassas that taught their students "Talib" a "stoneage" version of Islam got heavy support from the CIA via ISI passthroug.

My guess is that even the conflict with India was bankrolled and pushed from the US side to "compensate" for India having (positiv) relations to the SU.

My conclusion is that in its base motivation the forces that determine US foreign policy still work on having a conflict zone on the russian and chinese borderfringe.

uwe

Apologies but I know for a fact that the ISI is not anything like a subsidiary of the CIA. In Charlie Wilson's War the ISI got most of the support because it was the only way to get the weapons to the anti-Soviet warriors. Your other conclusions aren't supported by any evidence I have seen. The Agency understood full well that building up ISI was not popular in India, and that there would be repercussions and blow-back. It was judged at political levels that supporting the insurrection against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was in the national interest even so.

As to the present administration I have no clues beyond their public statements.

========

Patients given huge radiation overdoses during stroke CT scans..

http://www.nytimes.com/
2010/08/01/health/01radiation.html?_r=1 

I thought you might be interested in this. Shades of the Therac-25 disaster only this time the operator's fault.

Best, -Jim

=============

Asimov vindicated? - 

Jerry,

It looks like Hari Seldon’s psychohistory <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Foundation_Series>  may be taking shape in this new startup:

http://www.gizmag.com/recorded-future-
uses-the-internet-to-predict-the-future/15921/ 

“Now there’s a company called Recorded Future that says it can use information scoured from tens of thousands of websites, blogs and Twitter accounts to predict the future.”

Cheers!

E.C. "Stan" Field

I have heard those people on George Noory's show. I have not been able to understand precisely what they do. It is an interesting approach to predicting the future, but I have not myself seen any spectacular results. It's like Distance Viewing, the promise is great, but the results don't seem to come as expected.

==========

Wikileaks and detained researcher

Jerry,

Read the CNET article referenced in today’s View about detention of Jacob Appelbaum and the examination and seizure of some of his equipment.

I’m a constant worldwide traveler as part of my job running a global sales team for a security company and we are advised by our legal team that when entering the US, but before you clear customs, you are in a no-man’s land. You are physically in the United States, but not exactly legally in the US until you are cleared. As such, normal search & seizure and 4th Amendment protections do not necessarily apply.

As someone who travels with a Smartphone and a laptop, both of which are encrypted, I haven’t decided what I would do if told that I had to provide the password for access. Hopefully it will never come to that.

Thanks for your writing and research,

Alex Thurber Santa Clara, CA

See reply to next letter

==

Jerry:

Very confused on your wiki-leaks stance. Three points.

1. Fourth Amendment protections don't apply when you cross the border. Maybe they should. Maybe Congress should pass a law to protect people. But that particular rule is as old as the Republic.

2. You seem to think the wiki-leak is bad. An American who is part of that, then, is guilty of treason, and maybe our border thugs (you can sense my views on those people) should be busting his ass. Or not?

3. The gentleman in question was a programmer at Tor, which, of course, started as a DOD program to allow our spies to snoop on islamic web sites at work while effectively anonymizing their IP address.

Krishna

Point One: I am not at all comfortable with the notion that once an American Citizen has landed on American soil he does not have constitutional rights. I understand the arguments, and I have read the court cases, and I think the situation needs clarification, and certainly is open to discussion. Either citizens have rights or they do not. As to that rule, it is not as old as the Republic.

Point Two: The treason charge would apply to the person who furnished the information in violation of an on oath of allegiance and loyalty. As to the question of anonymity on the Internet, that needs a lot more discussion than this. So does the entire question of "leaks" and publishing. We have been debating that since the days of the Alien and Sedition Laws in the earliest days of the Republic (and much of that debate, still unresolved, was taught in 7th grade in Tennessee when I was young). The debate is healthy. In general I am always in favor of transparency; but Republics do have the right to keep some secrets. Names of intelligence source would be among legitimate secrets as are the sailing days of troop ships.

Point Three: I didn't know that and I don't see that it changes my views in any event.

==

Traitors

Dr. P,

It is hard to get serious about a war when traitors are treated with kid gloves. A number of people will remain convinced that the source of the wikileaks documents will be suitably punished by some jail time, but the fact remains that for traitorous acts during wartime any consequences short of dancing the Danny Deever are a mere slap on the wrist. Are the peacetime humanitarian sensitivities that rule our nation today worth the certainty that we will encourage others to take the same actions in or out of a combat zone?

I suppose the real question is "Are we at war, or not?" For many people the outcome of the investigation and trial, plus the reality of what charges are actually filed, will answer that question. A nation at war cannot allow it to be "ok" to commit acts of treason. If that dude lives more than a year, the inescapable truth is that we are not in fact a nation at war, and we all (especially our military members conducting combat operations) need to be very careful to understand what that means. Acts in a combat zone that provide aid to the enemy and place allied lives at direct risk used to carry the threat of capital punishment in the field, at the earliest opportunity. Passing along detailed information on operations including names of collaborators and allies certainly meets the criteria, so if this whole thing leads to a demotion, reduction in pay, and some jail time, that will send a loud message to our troops in combat.

I would like to think that passing that sort of information to our enemies during a time of war would rate punishment somewhat greater than you'd face after robbing a convenience store, but I bet that's what we'll see come out of this.

Name withheld please...

============

Subject: Win 7 up, Mac OS X down in market share wars

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2010/08/02/os_market_share_stats/print.html 

Tracy Walters, CISSP

=================g

 

 read book now

 

 

TOP

CURRENT VIEW    Wednesday

 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Thursday, August 5, 2010

: Kindle for iPad

Jerry,

I don't know if you've noticed yet, but there is an update for Kindle for iPad available in the iStore. It makes, a good app much better. It has a dictionary, and links to Google and Wikipedia for word lookup. The Google and Wikipedia links are a little awkward right now, since they terminate Kindle and launch Safari when a lookup is done. However, the notes indicate that the app is OS4 multitasking ready, so that when OS4 arrives for iPad, things will work the way they should.

Kindle for iPad was good before, but it's now better than Kindle itself for reading ebooks in virtually every way.

Very much recommended!!

Best

-- Bob.

=================

David Brin on the recent planetary discoveries

140 Earth-size planets discovered in the last two weeks by Kepler space telescope

"Kepler finds planets by detecting almost imperceptible 'winks' - the tiny amount of dimming that occurs each time a planet moves across the face of a star. 'Transits', as they are known, by terrestrial planets produce a small change in a star's brightness of about 100 parts per million, lasting for 2 to 16 hours. Information such as a planet's size and the extent of its orbit can be calculated from the amount of dimming, the length of time between 'winks' and the star's mass." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/
article-1296841/More-100-Earth-like-
planets-just-past-weeks.html 

This raises the number of discovered extrasolar planets up around a thousand (up from ZERO in just 15).

Actually, the news article leaves out a lot:

1 - because these planets were discovered by “transit” that means ONLY stellar systems whose planets orbit in a plane exactly in line with the Earth will be discovered, maybe one in a thousand. The fact that so many have been discovered anyway, despite this handicap, suggests that the numbers in our neighborhood are truly large.

2 - Many of us always knew that lots of planets would be found, because of the “angular momentum effect. Almost all of our solar system’s angular momentum is held by one planet, Jupiter, and not the sun. The fact that other G type stars rotate at about the same rate as Sol suggested that they, too, must have bled off their angular momentum to orbiting bodies. Switching hats from astronomer to science fiction author, I knew it for other reasons, too.

3 - There are people who desperately want there to be no life worlds, among these newly discovered planets! Why would that be? See why, by looking up The Great Filter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

David Brin

============

Switzerland

Hi Jerry

I am always pleased when someone says kind things about Switzerland. The relatively direct democracy that we have does indeed work quite well.

That said, one must be careful to take the right lesson from the Swiss example. The Swiss system work well precisely because Switzerland's population is quite small. At around seven million, our population is smaller than that of many cities.

The correct lesson to be drawn is that democracy works best on a small scale. No individual voter can change the direction of the huge American federal government, but they might just manage to influence their city or county. The advantages of the Swiss model can be had anywhere, simply by pushing power down to local governments.

Cheers

Brad

Aristotle would have agreed.

My views are more complex; but the main point is that Switzerland does try hard for both transparency and subsidiarity, and that seems to work quite well. And I note that suicide bombers are rare in Switzerland...

============

How the Kyoto Protocol Really worked

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/secret-history-climate-alarmism 

An important piece on the Kyoto Protocol

DM

============

Prop. 8 

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I'm sure you're aware of the furor over Proposition 8, and I note this news story.

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/66802,news-comment,
news-politics,gay-judge-routs-mormons-to-overturn-
california-gay-marriage-ban-prop8 

One has to admire the framing. Bringing a suit against the law to a gay judge in San Francisco? Can you say "predetermined outcome"?

So it occurs to me that the best thing for conservatives to do, if they want any of their laws to have the force of wet paper, is to file suit *themselves* challenging the law -- in a suitable venue.

For example, the next time an immigration law is passed, get some suitable patsies to file suit in Texas before a hangin' judge who discreetly belongs to an anti-immigration organization.

Or -- if there is another law forbidding gay marriage -- get a compliant couple to sue in Long Beach before a Mormon judge. Then we can rush OUR predetermined outcome through the court system before the other side gets THEIR predetermined outcome through, and ours will be the precedent first!

The problem with Heinlein's guide to "taking back the government", as I see it, is that it was written under the assumption representative government means something in the US. In the 'culture war', it is so no longer. Rather, it is a legal oligarchy whereby judicial mechanisms are used to impose the will of the few on the many under color of law. Legal mechanisms are now weapons in political conflict, and judges in such a conflict are participants, not neutral arbiters.

This isn't the America you grew up in. It is, however, the one *I* grew up in. I know of no way to restore respect for the rule of law or to change the judicial system back into a tool for neutral arbitration. I am, however, open to suggestions. As you say, despair is a sin.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

I fear your cure would be worse than the disease...

============

Here Be Dragons

Here Be Dragons is written by a an embedded journalist in Afghanistan who has an unusual perspective. She is a senior citizen who has a lot of knowledge of and experience with Afghani culture.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LH03Df03.html 

--Gary Pavek

Unusual indeed. Thanks

=========

the real results of wikileaks

Jerry-

I wasn't sure if you saw this yet, but it's not just hypothesis, theory, or conjecture now. The real results of the documents posted at wikileaks:

"Late last week, just four days after the documents were published, death threats began arriving at the homes of key tribal elders in southern Afghanistan. And over the weekend one tribal elder, Khalifa Abdullah, who the Taliban believed had been in close contact with the Americans, was taken from his home in Monar village, in Kandahar province’s embattled Arghandab district, and executed by insurgent gunmen."

http://bigpeace.com/jhanson/2010/08/04/
measuring-wikileaks-assange-for-an-orange-jumpsuit/ 

Regards, Wade

=================g

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 

TOP

 

CURRENT VIEW    Thursday

 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Friday,  August 6, 2010

NOAA report: The State of the Climate

“The most recent studies, in which recently discovered data errors have been corrected, show the strongest warming.”

Is there global warming? I don’t think so, especially when I am given statements like the above that purport to indicate global warming, but just indicate the stupidity of the author. If I have been weighing myself daily for two months and find after the first month that my scales are low by 10 pounds, which I correct; I cannot point to the graph of the weighings and claim that the second month’s measurements, “in which recently discovered data errors have been corrected”, show that I have gained 10 pounds over the last two months.

When someone tries to pull the wool over my eyes like that, I tend to discount anything else they say. I think that in legal circles, they refer to this as “False in one, false in all.”

I would also expect to find that the experimental errors both increase and decrease the measurements; however, what I see in the public reports indicate that all corrections increase the temperatures.

Hugh

The problem is that the theorists have no better explanations than their models, so they can't reject the model. If you don't have a better model then you must accept theirs. If you have no better theory than phlogiston, then go away...

==

Arctic cooled to pre-industrial levels from 1950-1990:

 <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/02/
arctic_treering_cooling_research/

According to a statement issued by the UFZ: What stands out in the data from the Kola Peninsula is that the highest temperatures were found in the period around 1935 and 1955, and that by 1990 the curve had fallen to the 1870 level, which corresponds to the start of the Industrial Age. Since 1990, however, temperatures have increased again ... What is conspicuous about the new data is that the reconstructed minimum temperatures coincide exactly with times of low solar activity.

OK, makes perfectly good sense to me....until the thought occurred: But aren't we CURRENTLY undergoing a time of very low solar activity? So just how hot would it be if we were not?????

Hmmmmmmm

Warm regards,

Larry Cunningham

You are free to speculate as you will. I continue to conclude that we do not know with enough certainty to put enormous resources into "remedies" like Cap and Trade. We need to know more about what is happening, and to take hard looks into operations that have some real chance of making a difference.

==============

the future of manned space flight

Dear Jerry

I have just read the following interesting and thought provoking article on the BBC website here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-10777658  under the heading "Adventurers to fund space travel, astronomer royal says".

The article was based on a Cambridge University podcast which can be found here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHu0IHzyTKY 

I understand that robotic exploration missions and space telescope hardware is the way to go for initial exploration and academic research, being much better value for money than manned missions, not to mention safer and easier to deploy.

However I believe that the greatest threat to the human species is over-population, which shows no signs of slowing down.

The second greatest threat is that some random piece of rock, big enough to radically change conditions past the point of survivability by humanity, will turn up at any moment. As we know, it has happened before, several times. There are other 'outside context' scenarios of diminishing probability which might also have the same result, any of which would more than just solve the first problem mentioned, but not in a good way.

Therefore at some point we will need to take a little more seriously the 'all eggs in one basket' situation that we are in. We need to at least, as a first step, establish some kind of back up colony and a means to terraform an alien environment - Mars, Venus, some large asteroid or moon, either by burrowing or by transformation of the surface environment. A self sustaining colony containing enough samples of humanity and life on planet Earth to start over if necessary. I don't underestimate this effort, this would probably be humanity's greatest work to date. But we need to get on with it, right away. Also I think it should be a living, fully functional colony not just a DNA bank with minimal or little occupation.

So while it's not cheap, some form of manned space flight must be made workable, safe, repeatable and affordable. Robotic scientific or academic missions are certainly also necessary to supply raw data to play with but not the actual solution to these issues.

Therefore I hope that someone in charge has a plan and is not just leaving it up to 'some adventurers'.

I did email the author of the comments, the Astronomer Royal Martin Rees, Baron Rees of Ludlow last Sunday morning and was gratified when I got an immediate response thanking me for my comments.

Obviously there are many barriers and risks to a practical solution for manned space travel, not least cost, the effects of hard radiation over long periods, and the lack of a practical and cheap propulsion system which has yet to be devised.

Given all of the above, I would be very interested in your opinion on this matter. Perhaps we must wait for the adventurers after all.

yours sincerely

David J Mallinson.

Arthur Clarke said it well: If the human race is to survive, then for all but a small fraction of its history, the word "ship" will mean space ship.

I probably ought to rewrite my paper on how to get to space, but really it is current enough.

=============

What hath Larry wrought?

See http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=ARwZ3scXQ7U&feature=youtube_gdata 

Also http://www.youtube.com/watch?
feature=iv&annotation_id=annotation_66528&v=N1yDYXStHyI 

Harry

Another "flash" choir amusement. Interesting.

If you want to know why I put "flash" watch the second linked video.

==============g

 

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 

TOP

CURRENT VIEW     Friday

 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Saturday, August 7, 2010

"Gay Marriage" 

Jerry:

This is a bit of a nitpick, but instead of "gay marriage", we really ought to use "same-sex marriage".

Gays have always had the right to marry, and many have in fact married. They have not been able to marry their first choice of marriage partner (or frequently, their second, third, fourth, and so on), but they have long had the right to marry a legal partner of their choice. Similarly, heterosexual men and women have the right to marry any legal partner of their choice. That the requirement that the partner be of the opposite sex has been less of an impediment for them, is not discrimination on the part of the law, but on the part of the people wishing to marry.

If Judge Walker's ruling stands, it changes the definition of "marriage" to include any two people, within certain other limits. (Siblings, for example, will still not be able to marry each other, even if one or both is sterile.) Thus, if two heterosexuals of the same sex want to marry for some reason (say, putting one on the other's health plan), that will be perfectly legal. No one will ask the couple their sexual orientation, just as no one asks it now.

       Karl

Correct, of course.

============

Hack uses Google Street View data to stalk its victims:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2010/08/03/google_street_view_hack/ 

"This is geo location gone terrible," Kamkar said. "Privacy is dead, people."

Yuck.

Ed

Some think privacy has been dead since the invention of cookies.

===========

Alternate QDR: More troops, modern equipment

By John T. Bennett

Pentagon spending plans and cost-saving efforts would fall short of fielding the kind of modern combat arsenal likely needed to fight future foes, including a rapidly modernizing Chinese military, according to a high-level bipartisan group of defense experts.

“We are concerned by what we see as a growing gap between our interests and our military capability to protect those interests in the face of a complex and challenging security environment,” according to a congressionally mandated alternative to the Pentagon’s 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review.

Military Times obtained a summary of the “alternative QDR,” set to be unveiled Thursday.

The military continues to rely on 30-year-old combat equipment, largely because of the staggering costs of two ongoing wars, including the expense of keeping aging platforms in operational shape for those conflicts, the independent QDR study team concluded.

While Defense Secretary Robert Gates has charged each military service with freeing up between $10 billion and $15 billion annually over the next few years, ordering them to roll the “savings” into hardware modernization efforts, the independent QDR panel doubts that will generate enough new monies to build the kind of force America will need for decades to come.<snip>

We do not seem to know what is the purpose of the Legions.

=============

Mercury Memories

http://www.newscientist.com/article/
dn19239-whats-the-best-way-to-eject-
astronauts-during-liftoff.html 

The New Scientist article about a new capsule escape system brought back memories from my days as part of the McDonnell Aircraft Project Mercury team. McDonnell's initial proposal for the capsule featured a different capsule escape system. Several existing small rockets were bolted to the outside of the adapter that attached the capsule to the rocket. In an abort, the adapter was separated from the booster and all the rockets fired simultaneously to pull the capsule away from the booster. This was a much lighter and more aerodynamic solution than the escape tower but required that all the rockets fire simultaneously.

On the first attempt to test the escape tower using a boilerplate capsule, one of the three nozzles in the escape capsule failed causing the capsule to arc over into the beach. Right after the test failure, there was a lot of renewed NASA interest in McDonnell's solution but it didn't last long. The escape rocket carried a lot of ballast to make the capsule aerodynamically stable in an abort. The solution was to make the nozzle from heavier material and remove some lead from the front end of the escape rocket.

All this is from memory about events from 60 years ago. I still have a lot of vivid memories from my days on Project Mercury. Now if I could just remember events from last month as well.....

Chuck Anderson

One of my first big research projects was testing human tolerance to the heat profile of the worst case for Mercury (landing in the desert rather than water, and the escape hatch stuck closed). We later used the same experimental setup to test heat tolerance for the Apollo suits. That was indeed long ago.

=============g

 

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 

TOP

 

CURRENT VIEW     Saturday

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Sunday,  August 8, 2010     

We went to the Ford Theater with friends for a concert, so I took the day off from mail. There are short disquisitions on Hiroshima and on Afghanistan in today's view.

 

 

 

 read book now

 

 

  TOP

CURRENT VIEW     Sunday

The current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be bookmarked. For previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE.

FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE

If you are not paying for this place, click here...

IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private SAY SO AT THE TOP of the mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld).

Note that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name and address you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also, repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time.

I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too...  I am reminded of H. P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail. 

Day-by-day...
Monday -- Tuesday -- Wednesday -- Thursday -- Friday -- Saturday -- Sunday
 
 

 Search engine:

 

or the freefind search

 
   Search this site or the web        powered by FreeFind
 
  Site search Web search


Boiler Plate:

If you want to PAY FOR THIS PLACE I keep the latest information HERE.  MY THANKS to all of you who sent money.  Some of you went to a lot of trouble to send money from overseas. Thank you! There are also some new payment methods. I am preparing a special (electronic) mailing to all those who paid: there will be a couple of these. I have thought about a subscriber section of the page. LET ME KNOW your thoughts.
.

If you subscribed:

atom.gif (1053 bytes) CLICK HERE for a Special Request.

If you didn't and haven't, why not?

If this seems a lot about paying think of it as the Subscription Drive Nag. You'll see more.

Patron Subscription:

Search: type in string and press return.

 

For platinum subscription:

For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:

= = = = = = = = = =

For a Regular Subscription click here:

= = = = = = = =

Strategy of Technology in pdf format:

To order the nose pump I recommend, click on the banner below:

Entire Site Copyright, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 by Jerry E. Pournelle. All rights reserved.

birdline.gif (1428 bytes)