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Monday  January 18, 2010

Haiti

Dear Jerry:

When we had the earthquake here in 94 I recall that it took quite a bit of time to get forces mobilized to cope with the disaster. The Haiti event is at least a hundred times larger and complicated by the fact that the UN seems to have had all of their Command and Control people killed or injured, and the Haitian government is basically out of business. One of the searchers for the dead said that the World Trade Center search was much easier because it was confined to one big block, while in Haiti, the problem is everywhere.

So, the US Army and Navy and Air Force will just have to muddle through in a foreign country where most of them don't speak the local lingo and fools obstruct rescue efforts with rumors, looting, and gunfire. It is interesting and irritating that the NGOs, which often criticize the military for carrying guns are also the first to cry out "where are the soldiers? " when the bandits appear.

 The 82nd Airborne is on the ground now and they've been told they will be there for quite awhile. Reserves are being called up. Undoubtedly all of the military police units put there in the 90s to reduce the size of the "real" army. Maybe a few Civil Affairs units as well, who will finally get to work their specialty rather than escort convoys. But it takes time. People never understand that. I used to have the same problem with clients in the security business and had to explain that we did NOT keep people waiting around just to fill extra guard positions on demand. That, in fact, we usually had positions we couldn't fill without paying overtime ( which we had to eat).

The reality is that no one could have prepared for this event, much less to respond in a timely manner. We are making it up as we go along, as we always do.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

Well said. I've little to add. I fear I am too upset by the comments I hear from people who have never seen an elephant.

==

A few points re. Haiti:

You mentioned the IDF having sent rescue teams to Haiti. There was also a group from the Israeli volunteer group ZAKA <http://www.zaka.us/>  that spent a “Shabbat from hell” working around the clock to rescue people from a collapsed university building. Between the rockets from Hizballah & Hamas and suicide bombings (and traffic accidents) Israel certainly has people who are well-trained in rescue & recovery.

The poor response of the local UN force can be attributed, I think, to the fact that its headquarters was destroyed along with the loss of some 150 lives. So the US stepped in, and of course we will be blamed for everything that goes wrong. How do you weigh the moral imperative to help against the cost (!) to our nation’s image?

As you wrote, may God bless the Legions.

—Joel C. Salomon

=========

Someone actually read the Health Care Bill,

Jerry

Here is a video that enumerates the scary bits of the Healthcare Bill - "Know the TRUTH about the Government Health Care Bill H.R.3200 - Key Points" Mebbe true, mebbe not:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcBaSP31Be8 

But clearly someone did as you suggested: they actually read the Health Care bill.

Ed

Imagine actually reading the bill before it becomes law...

===========

emergency shoe boxes

Hello Dr,. Pournelle:

Well, the fallout that began with the emergency gubernatorial elections, appears to be continuing, and with any luck will continue on into the mid term elections. Massachusetts may actually have a republican senator to replace saintly Teddy Kennedy. Though the Democrats profess to being unworried and confidant, they seem to be pouring resources, both financial and political, into the race. Could it be that they are being less than frank with us about the certainly of their victory? Democrat Coakley seemed a shoe in, just a month ago; but now challenger Brown has gained so much initiative that it is a dead heat.

Obama himself is coming, though even many supporters are not certain how much help this will be, as Obama himself is in trouble politically. I am not that familiar with the politics of that state; but I can see why Coakley is in trouble, just from the bits of the article linked to below. When asked about Obama's coming, Coakley commented that it was "pretty cool". Pretty cool? Do we have a fifteen year old running for office here? She is also a bit too flip about how much she doesn't need his help, advising reporters that she hopes Obama has a good time and a safe trip. Apparently it is just a coincidence that he is there, seeing the sights, just before the election.

The last paragraph of the article mentions the counterattack that the Democrats are launching, saying:

"They cast him as a far-right conservative funded by "tea party" supporters and they highlighted a TV interview from 2008 in which Brown seems to suggests that Obama may have been born out of wedlock."

A couple of interesting things about this counterattack are that, in fact, Obama probably was born out of wedlock. This may or may not be relevant, depending upon each individual voter's standards; but it is not untrue. The second point, that Brown is funded by Tea party Supporters, is too vague to even remotely be proven or disproven. Even if true, it is a strange bit of slander. With Boston being the home of the original Tea Party, and with there being so many conservatives and moderates who were either involved, or approving of the various tea parties, it might not be such a good idea to criticize the movement. Apparently, only members of liberal movements have the right to fund candidates.

You have often referred to the Republicans as the stupid party, and I quite agree. Still, there appears to be plenty of stupidity to go around. If the Republicans screwed up by acting too much like Democrats, then the Democrats may now be returning the favor by emulating many of the mistakes of the Republicans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100117/
ap_on_el_se/us_massachusetts_senate_obama_16 

I hate to sound so jaded; but does this mean that there will be another shoebox full of ballots found in a car trunk, after the dems determine how many extra votes they will need to win?

Neal Pritchett

Well of course they will. And Al Franken will be given the job of recounting them.

==============

who is this young man?

Hello Dr. Pournelle

You are quite a bit less formal than I had imagined, and I was surprised by the slight Southern accent. I had imagined a somewhat authoritarian, soft spoken, perhaps slightly stodgy, professorial type. Instead, you come across as a regular guy, perhaps going out with Tom and Durk for a game of pool and a shot and a beer after taping. Regular visitors to this site may be interested in hearing your voice. What is amazing to me is that you were both right on the money, about the technology. I suspect you were right on the money politically as well; but that is a tougher sell. Snyder is from my home town of Milwaukee - a much different place then, than now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U-Oxhb8SK4 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ7lHBnlKQM&feature=related 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVd_y5VAxEs&feature=related

=============

Letter from England

Growing terrorist activity reported in the UK <http://tinyurl.com/yaa8foa

The issue with Gordon Brown is that the job appears to be bigger than the man. You may disagree with Obama, but as yet he doesn't appear to be overmatched by his job--at least from across the Atlantic. Brown's making a play for the centre: <http://tinyurl.com/y87z7w5>  <http://tinyurl.com/yed6b6r>  <http://tinyurl.com/yesf8g4>  <http://tinyurl.com/ye9sws6

Grade inflation continues at university <http://tinyurl.com/ya3f5jp

-- Harry Erwin, PhD "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

============

Logistics

Jerry,

Quick comment on the scale of logistics for an event like Haiti.

Given the population of Port-au-Prince at 3 million, moving one quart of water per person per day amounts to moving:

(3,000,000 persons) x (1 qt/ person /day) x (2 lbs/ qt) x (1 ton / 2000 lbs) = 3,000 tons of water.

At 100 tons/plane (generous), that's 30 flights.

Say that pallets are 1 ton (again generous) and that 1 forklift is available per plane to unload, that's approximately 3 hours ground time to unload the planes.

Trucks carry 20 tons, so that is 5 trucks per flight or 150 trucks to carry the water. Note that with scheduling the number of distinct trucks can be reduced somewhat, but 75 is probably an absolute minimum.

Let's assume that we set up 150 distribution points -- which would force most of the victims to walk an average of about half a mile each way to get to the distribution point. Handing two one-pint bottles per person with a crew of five on the truck (one driver; one gunner to prevent having the whole truck hijacked, and three persons handing out water) at five seconds per average transaction, requires about 9 hours per truck. Doesn't seem time efficient. Unloading case boxes at 1 minute per case with three people would require ... the same 9 hours. Plus driving time to and from the distribution point, which is presumed to be a couple of hours due to roads rendered impassible by quake damage, survivors, and stacked bodies.

Multiply by food requirements and other services.

This is three times the number of victims of Katrina ...in a country whose infrastructure is primitive compared to the worst of New Orleans...without even the days of warning we got to evacuate New Orleans ... and at the end of a 700 - 4000 mile overwater (rather than overland) logistics chain. And despite being pilloried, the Bush administration's national level response (FEMA) was textbook, except for not overstepping local and state sovereignty when the City of New Orleans and State of Louisiana proved incapable of responding adequately on their own (which would probably have set the Civil Libertarian hounds yapping at them the other way, though never again after Bush's sad experience there).

Until we get the Starship Enterprise and the ability to teleport supplies straight from the point of manufacture to the end user, we're not going to improve on 48 - 96 hours to "boots on the ground" response to any emergency like this.

Jim

The complaint seems to be that we are sending Armed Clowns. In my limited experience, there is no lack of bad guys who will exploit any shortage in any situation; and it only takes a couple of them. But that's my limited experience.

God bless the Legions.

============

A View from Massachusetts

Dear Jerry,

Here in Massachusetts, the special election campaign to fill the senate seat was very low key until about 10 days ago week, when polls indicated the race was closer than expected. Mr. Brown has been endorsed by several police unions, including the State Police Association, and ironically, by Sen. Kennedy's hometown paper, The Cape Cod Times.

Mr. Brown is leading in recent polls:

"The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead."

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/
politics/view/20100114
brown-out_poll_shows_scott_brown_
trumping_martha_coakley/srvc=
home&position=0 

"Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19."

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ 

"Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
2010/01/massachusetts-senate-poll.html 

Yesterday, President Obama and Mrs. Coakley drew 1,500 in Boston whilst at the same time, Mr. Brown drew 3,000 in Worcester.

In our town north of Worcester, I have seen Brown signs and stickers and newspaper ads, but no such advertising at all for Mrs. Coakley. There have also been many letters in our paper in support of Mr. Brown, and none in support of Mrs' Coakley (hopefully that is not because the paper endorsed Mr. Brown). However, there have been increasingly shrill Democratic TV and radio spots over the last week, and I count myself fortunate not to have gotten one of these mailings from the Mass. Democratic Party...

“1,736 WOMEN WERE RAPED IN MASSACHUSETTS IN 2008. SCOTT BROWN WANTS HOSPITALS TO TURN THEM ALL AWAY.”

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/senate-republicans/dem-mail-scott-brown-wants-hospitals-to-turn-away-all-rape-victims/.

I think he can pull it off. The proof will be in the polling tomorrow.

Cheers,

Rod Schaffter

-- "The purpose of political correction is to delegitimate opposition; to make the most basic facts of life undiscussable, and thereby eliminate debate. It is a device for seizing power." --David Warren

============

I hope Mr. Niven is getting credit...

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1053424/plotsummary 

Set in the near future when artificial organs can be bought on credit, it revolves around a man who struggles to make the payments on a heart he has purchased. He must therefore go on the run before said ticker is repossessed.

I saw the trailer in conjunction with The Book of Eli (recommended); it's evident that organ repo men have a lot in common in organleggers in their methods.

Jim

===================d

 

 

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Tuesday,  January 19, 2010

w

A View from Massachusetts

Dear Jerry,

Here in Massachusetts, the special election campaign to fill the senate seat was very low key until about 10 days ago week, when polls indicated the race was closer than expected. Mr. Brown has been endorsed by several police unions, including the State Police Association, and ironically, by Sen. Kennedy's hometown paper, The Cape Cod Times.

Mr. Brown is leading in recent polls:

"The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead."

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/
politics/view/20100114brown-out_poll
_shows_scott_brown_trumping_
martha_coakley/srvc=home&position=0 

"Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19."

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ 

"Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
2010/01/massachusetts-senate-poll.html 

Yesterday, President Obama and Mrs. Coakley drew 1,500 in Boston whilst at the same time, Mr. Brown drew 3,000 in Worcester.

In our town north of Worcester, I have seen Brown signs and stickers and newspaper ads, but no such advertising at all for Mrs. Coakley. There have also been many letters in our paper in support of Mr. Brown, and none in support of Mrs' Coakley (hopefully that is not because the paper endorsed Mr. Brown). However, there have been increasingly shrill Democratic TV and radio spots over the last week, and I count myself fortunate not to have gotten one of these mailings from the Mass. Democratic Party...

“1,736 WOMEN WERE RAPED IN MASSACHUSETTS IN 2008. SCOTT BROWN WANTS HOSPITALS TO TURN THEM ALL AWAY.”

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/
senate-republicans/dem-mail-scott-brown-
wants-hospitals-to-turn-away-all-rape-victims/

I think he can pull it off. The proof will be in the polling tomorrow.

Cheers,

Rod Schaffter

-- "The purpose of political correction is to delegitimate opposition; to make the most basic facts of life undiscussable, and thereby eliminate debate. It is a device for seizing power." --David Warren

==f

 

A View from Massachusetts Part 2

Hi Jerry,

My Wife was home sick from work, so we voted together for the first time in many years. The polling place was quite crowded for 11:00, and the poll worker I asked said it had been busy all day. There were several Brown supporters outside holding signs, but no Coakleyites.

It's been snowing all day, probably an inch so far, with two to three inches forecasted here in Central Massachusetts, but it shouldn't keep anyone home.

Suffolk University released 'Bellwether Polls' of three 'typical' Massachusetts cities. We live just south of Fitchburg, which they polled:

"The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.

Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.

The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006."

http://www.myfoxboston.com/
dpp/news/politics/local_politics/
poll-scott-brown-surges-to-double-digit
-lead-over-martha-coakley 

This area went 62/38 for Obama in 2008.

Apparently someone is up to dirty tricks:

"Behind in the polls to Republican Senate candidate Scott brown, supporters of pro-abortion candidate Martha Coakley have evidentially reached into their bag of dirty tricks. A Washington, D.C. based company is making calls to Massachusetts residents pretending to represent a prominent pro-life group.

The calls, from 202-461-3441, a Washington number registered to a company called SOOH, claim to be from Massachusetts Citizens for Life.

The caller claims the pro-life group is opposing Scott brown because of his stance against the health care bill, but as MCFL president Anne Fox told LifeNews.com late Monday, the opposite is true."

http://www.lifenews.com/state4738.html 

We actually got a call from that number yesterday, but I deleted the message without listening beyond the first few seconds, so I can't comment on its content. We got at least ten calls this weekend from various pro-Brown groups (including one with Pat Boone's voice!).

Voting here is by optically scanned paper ballots. The results are tabulated by each Town Clerk and sent ot the Secretary of State, so preliminary counting will be completed within hours. IIRC, they have 15 days to wait for absentee ballots to arrive, and an additional ten days to send the final tally to Boston.

The outcome all depends on who shows up, as this 'heavily Democratic' state has 55% of its voters belonging to neither party, which is almost certainly due to its open primaries.

We indeed live in interesting times...

Cheers,

Rod Schaffter

PS. In fairness to the other side, 4,000 actually turned up to hear the President speak on Sunday, not the 1,500 I reported. There was only room for 1,500 in the hall.

-- "The purpose of political correction is to delegitimate opposition; to make the most basic facts of life undiscussable, and thereby eliminate debate. It is a device for seizing power." --David Warren

==============

The election in the home of the original Tea Party -

Dear Jerry,

No matter who wins I think many of the Dems will rethink pushing through the health care reform bill based on secret talks that exclude the Republicans. It may be a lot messier if done in the open, but I think that many will notice that they may put their re-election chances at risk unless they do listen to the "other" side.

One may hope.

R,
Rose

Do you think so? Or will the ram through their agenda whether you like it or not?

 

 

For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:

 

 

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

     With the surprising win in Massachusetts, perhaps there is hope for real change in America.  Mr. Clinton, in '96, grasped the desires of the American people with his slogan, "a bridge to the 21st Century." But neither Mr. Bush or Mr. Obama could understand that we have a bloated 20th Century government trying to work in the 21st Century.  Our people want change in Washington, but no one wants a federal government destroying our money and our lifestyles.  Do you believe that now may be the time for an economic constitutional convention?  Wouldn't the voters support an amendment that balanced the budget, gave the President a line-item veto, controlled the dollar printing press, payed our debts, stopped over spending, eliminated federal programs:  e.g. TSA, IRS, Nasa and departments like Education and Energy. Maybe that should be the mission of the Tea Parties and use a never before tried way to amend our Constitution, rather than wait for Washington to change itself. I would appreciate your thoughts.

Sincerely yours,

Christopher Vaughan
Kearney, Missouri

A return to constitutional principles is needed, but we have come so far toward centralization that it will look like radical change. It's going to take some patience, and the Republicans have got to understand that the country doesn't love them either. They didn't deserve to win in 2008. The voters turned them out. The Democrats decided that this gave them a mandate to do even more centralization and build even bigger government. That was not what people thought they were electing. Obama ran as a Christian centrist. He governed as an intellectual Marxist. Pelosi and Reid were closer to Mao. Now that has been rejected. We'll see what happens next. I hope your analysis is correct, but my guess is that the American people are disgusted with professional politicians and do not trust them nor do they trust intellectuals. It will be interesting to see who they do trust.

==

Hold the celebration 

You may excerpt this as needful.

SUBJ: Don't pop the champagne just yet, gang.

Ok, the Democrats lost in Mass. That's a big (hoo-AHH!!) change.

HOWEVER, some things haven't changed:

1. The Republicans are famously spineless and inept in power plays.

2. The Democrats are sneaky, shameless, ruthless and can bribe with the entire contents of the US Treasury and then some.

3. The Republicans are famously spineless and inept in power plays.

How long before some Repub senator crosses the aisle in key votes, effectively giving the Dems back their fillibuster-proof majority? Who will it be?

I have Olympia Snow (WA) and 10 days in the betting pool. Safe bet.

Other front runners are Lugar and Voinovich. Get your bets in early before all the small numbers of days are taken. Whoever it is, I don't think it will take long.

But we shall not despair! Mass. could indeed have gone the other way. I believe I'll crack a bottle of homebrew Dopplebock for the occasion, and hope the Repubs can rise above their genes.

Btw, I chanced onto a HB copy of WFB's _Red Hunter_ on ebay for a pittance and its in my reading stack. Also have a copy of _Wasp_ inbound and looking forward to it as well. A good book recommendation these days is a pearl beyond price. Only one of many services for which I treasure your web site. A heartfelt thanks.

Cordially, John

I think some celebration is in order, but I agree that the work has just begun. Thanks for the kind words.

===================g

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Emergency weather bulletin

Here's a real lesson on life: Scroll on Down

Wow-What a storm. I know I won't be complaining about our low temperatures we are having this year.

And all of this midst the global warming scare touted by

Al Gore!

Emergency Weather Bulletin

This text is from a county emergency manager out in the western part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan after a severe snow storm ...

The Mining Journal,Marquette, MI

WEATHER BULLETIN

Up here in the Northern part of Michigan we just recovered from a Historic event --- may I even say a "Weather Event" of "Biblical Proportions" --- with a historic blizzard of up to 44" inches of snow and winds to 90 MPH that broke trees in half, knocked down utility poles, stranded hundreds of motorists in lethal snow banks, closed ALL roads, isolated scores of communities and cut power to 10's of thousands.

df8c8eb.jpg

FYI:

Obama did not come.

FEMA did nothing.

No one howled for the government.

No one blamed the government.

No one even uttered an expletive on TV.

Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton did not visit.

Our Mayor's did not blame Obama or anyone else.

Our Governor did not blame Obama or anyone else either.

CNN, ABC, CBS, FOX, or NBC did not visit - or even report on this category 5snow storm.

df8c90b.jpg

Nobody demanded $2,000 debit cards.

No one asked for a FEMA Trailer House.

No one looted.

Nobody - I mean Nobody demanded the government do something.

Nobody expected the government to do anything either.

No Larry King, No Bill O'Rielly, No Oprah, No Chris Mathews and No Geraldo Rivera.

No Shaun Penn, No Barbara Striesand, No Brad Pitts, No Hollywood types to be found.

df8c92a.jpg

Nope, we just melted the snow for water.

Sent out caravans of SUV's to pluck people out of snow engulfed cars.

The truck drivers pulled people out of snow banks and didn't ask for a penny.

Local restaurants made food, and the police and fire departments delivered it to the snow bound families..

Families took in the stranded people - total strangers.

df8c93a.jpg

We fired up wood stoves, broke out coal oil lanterns or Coleman lanterns.

We put on an extra layers of clothes because up here it is "Work or Die".

We did not wait for some affirmative action government to get us out of a mess created by being immobilized by a welfare program that trades votes for 'sittin at home' checks.

Even though a Category 5 blizzard of this scale is not usual, we know it can happen and how to deal with it ourselves.

df8c959.jpg

I hope this gets passed on.

Maybe ..... SOME people will get the message ...... The world does Not owe you a living.

The numbers refer to snow drift pictures. I suppose that there is some "debunk" place that will say this message is a fake, or made up, or something, and perhaps so, but the essence is true. I recall similar things in Memphis -- Memphis!! -- after an ice storm that took out all transportation and power lines for a week when I was in high school. I actually skated for miles down Central Avenue which was encrusted with several inches of ice. Government didn't do much about it, but we all survived fairly well. Of course we did have civil defence, not FEMA.

You mean the world doesn't owe me a living? What are you, some kind of right wing extremist?

==

FYI. Mike Fox is going a great job.

I added the blue highlights. I think Mike is right. We need to stop being "nice" about this. At best this is fraud, a crime. In fact, since Federal funds are involved, it's a Federal crime.

Best,

John

*****

All: The link below is to article documenting the global warming scandals. Climate gate I is the scandal uncovered at the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the Univ. of East Anglia in England. Climategate II Involves the dishonesty at the US NASA-GiSS facilities as well as at the NOAA facilities. The underlying science of the entire global warming scare has disappeared in a mushroom cloud of scientific dishonesty. Nothing produced by these agencies including all of the IPCC documents can be trusted for scientific honesty.

After all of this scandal any state, local, or federal agency which now proposes, promotes, or participates in cap and trade type legislation, now will be known for using junkscience to promote needless damage to our economy. We can no longer tolerate nor endure such willful damage to our nation. Such attacks on our energy systems fossil, nuclear, and hydro would seem to be suitable grounds for charges of sedition. See link. Mike http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog  <http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

** John D. Trudel

Well, I like to stay "nice" but I do say they call me a denier whether I am nice or not...

=============

Project Orion Battleship 

Dr. Pournelle,

This may give your readers a chance to see how the “Michael” from Footfall may look:

 <http://up-ship.com/blog/?p=5137

--

Bryan

It's not quite what I had imagined, but it's very like something they might have made in the years after Footfall. (That is, Michael was a much cruder affair. But I sure like this.)

=============

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/20/amazon_royality/ 

Amazon offers publishers pre-iSlate Kindle bribes

More for authors, too

By Bill Ray

Posted in Mobile, 20th January 2010 17:03 GMT

Amazon has announced it will give a 70 per cent cut of retail price to publishers who make their books Kindle friendly.

The figure is around double what a publisher currently gets, but the deal requires books to be priced at least 20 per cent below the dead-tree edition. Between three and ten dollars, the book must also be compatible with text-to-speech and any other functionality Amazon decides to throw into the Kindle in the future.

Amazon also deducts the cost of delivery, at 15 cents a megabyte, so a typical book will cost (the publisher) about 6 cents to deliver. That means the publisher of a $8.99 book will get $6.25 in pocket, rather more than the $3.15 the same publisher can currently expect. <snip>

Tracy Walters, CISSP

It's worth going to the site to see the rest. Thanks.

==========

Hitler Finds Out Scott Brown Won Massachusetts Senate Seat

http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=c4aQCiRjvZY&feature=player_embedded 

Thanks to all those who pointed me to this. It's -- very unusual. And it doesn't take long to watch.

===========

Crossing and double crossing the aisle

One of your readers astutely asks:

How long before some Repub senator crosses the aisle in key votes, effectively giving the Dems back their fillibuster-proof majority? Who will it be?

We just saw in the Senate's handling of the health care bill the potential benefits in being one of the critical swing voters. What ransom can a Senator demand for restoring that 60th vote?

Yet it's also true there's a lot of talk in the media this morning about the Democrats facing tough going in the midterm elections -- maybe somebody on the other side of the aisle will panic. Isn't it time for Arlen Specter to swap horses again?

--Mike

Indeed. We ain't out of the woods yet.

==========

: Amazon, Booklocker Settle - 1/20/2010 9:21:00 AM - Publishers Weekly

http://www.publishersweekly.com/article/CA6715696.html 

This a terrific victory, not just for Angela Hoy, but for writers and self-publishers everywhere.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

Thanks. And this relates to the Amazon royalty story in today's view.

============

EADS Space Power Concept report on BBC site

Dear Jerry,

I decided to look up your site and write a note after seeing the report today of the EADS plans to put a power station into orbit beaming the power down to Earth via a laser link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8467472.stm   if you have time to check it out).

I remember this concept being part of a lecture you gave at the 1979 World Science Fiction Con in Brighton, along with the concept of turning defunct oil platforms into giant geo-thermal power generators. The year after your lecture, alternative energy sources came up as a topic on the Geography paper of my degree final exams. Though we hadn’t covered it as a topic, I wrote down everything I could remember of that evening in Brighton and passed the exam with ease. Who says you can’t learn useful stuff on holiday?

Amazingly that was over 30 years ago and it has only just moved from concept to possibility.

Regards

Simeon Dawes

============

spotless 

Jerry,

www.solarcycle24.com 

We're back to a spotless sun facing the earth. However, Sunspot Region 1041 (the remnants of 1039) are coming back around the eastern limb with some of the most significant flare activity -- even at high angles -- yet seen this solar cycle. This was, based on my informal review of the data over the past several months, the first southern hemisphere sunspot cycle in months, if not of Cycle 24.

Jim

=============

change you can believe in.

I'll be damned

http://www.foxnews.com/
politics/2010/01/19/polls-close-
competitive-massachusetts-senate-race/ 

America did it. After cutting off our nose to spite our face, we decided we would rather have a less than ideal nose, than have our face continually disfigured. I hope the Republicans have learned enough to put a real conservative coalition on the ballot this time. The Democrats have clearly learned nothing, and even before the election returns were in, they were already discussing the Nuclear Option, on fast tracking their health care takeover. Should they do this, it guarantees they will lose big in the mid terms. Actually, this may be a given whatever they do, so many may figure they have nothing to lose.

Now that the Democrats are forced by the numbers, to play nice with the Republicans, Hearts and flowers are everywhere - it was all just a big misunderstanding, and nobody meant anything personal. According to the article:

Durbin, in Chicago, said Democrats "haven't given up on finding other options. I hope some of the Republican senators who have at least been in conversations with us in the past will join us in passing health care reform."

Isn't it nice, that they can all be friends again, if those Republicans will just be reasonable? Even so, I am curious what Republicans he is referring to, and where these conversations have taken place, since all discussions of this bill have been closed to the Republicans by the Democratic majority.

The problem with health care reform, which has caused it to backfire like most of the top priorities of the current government, is that this was mostly not a concern, and certainly not a primary concern of most people, before it was created as a campaign issue. Continually telling people that they want this, does not change the fact that most do not. Before all of the rhetoric and hyperbole about this started with the Democrats, most of the people I know had little more than a passing interest in the subject, and were relatively satisfied with our health care system. What concerns most people is getting or keeping a job, not losing a house, not being killed by inflation, and not being taxed to death. There are also concerns about personal security, terrorism, and other such things. Instead of dealing with these issues, the government created a health care crises, decided to do something about the mythical global warming, and created a huge, still largely unspent, slush fund under the guise of an economic stimulus package.

In addition to mishandling the priorities they assigned to issues, the solutions offered were not the solutions most wanted. You and the regular readers and contributors to this site, along with countless others, have covered the bad points of the proposed changes in detail. There is no point in my rehashing them, except to say that this is not the direction in which most people want to be taken. This, in fact, is my definition of the difference between leaders and rulers. A leader takes people where they want to go, while a ruler takes them where he wants to go. In ignoring the wishes, complaints, and misgivings of the majority of citizens, the Democrats have pretty clearly shown which style of government they prefer.

More and more, it seems we need two parties, even though I do not care for what has happened to the Democrats. Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union were nations run by a single political party, as are most of the terrible little former colonies that we like to think of as the Third World. Perhaps it is best that America not follow their lead, even if the party in control is the Republicans, but especially if it is the Democrats. The lesson here, that we always seem to be relearning, is that you can not trust politicians, and that government is merely a tool. The good craftsman is always in control of his tool, never the other way around.

Neal

Oh, by the way, I just got this very interesting mail from an address purporting to be shiping@DHL.com . Along with the mail was a zip file which was supposed to be a shipping label. Just for the heck of it, I checked the tracking number on the DHL website, and it does not exist. I was unsurprised. Now what do you suppose would have happened if I would have opened that zip file?

I just deleted mine. Thanks.

We need more interested citizens to take part in Party activities. I would love it if there were two competing parties so that when the Iron Law makes one despicable it would be safe to bring in the other. But the Democrats seem under the control of the far left liberal wing, who call themselves Progressives but act like Marxists.

============

Derb: 'Will our intellectual classes turn in despair to sleek authoritarianism, staking their hopes for national regeneration on cliques of bossy technocrats reporting to a charismatic leader, their authority protected by liberty-stomping cohorts of secret policemen?'

Given the current state of affairs, I'm somewhat surprised to see Mr. Derbyshire posing this as a question in reference to future events, rather than as a declarative statement describing the present.

<http://article.nationalreview.com/print/
?q=MzAxNjlhYzI2NzE1MTJiYTUyMTRh
NjQ3YWUwYmM2NTA=

-- Roland Dobbins

Mr. Derbyshire has become increasingly despondent in the last year or so. We correspond infrequently but I have no clue as to why. Despair is a sin.

==========

TSA Pays Blogger to Mock People Harassed by TSA

http://reason.com/blog/2010/01/19/tsa-pays-blogger-to-mock-peopl 

From the article: "The airlines will tell you the higher scrutiny lists come from TSA. They'll insist there's nothing they can do about it. All you can do is write a letter requesting a review. And now that a family whose (8 year-old) kid's name somehow ended up on a list is getting some media attention, TSA condescendingly tells them it's the airlines' fault."

"Might keep in mind as you read that Burns is paid with your tax dollars."

In which circle of Hell are the "Barney Fife Gestapo" goons of the TSA?

Cordially, John

Barney Fife was merely incompetent, but good natured and unaware of his incompetence.

===========

"She said that Sherlock Holmes was the Conan Doyle family curse.”

<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/19/
books/19sherlock.html?pagewanted=all>

---- Roland Dobbins

Some curse. A rational copyright system would have put Holmes into public domain long ago, and certainly by now.

========================

 

 

 

 

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Friday,  January 22, 2010

Orion Battleship

I saw your comment: "It's not quite what I had imagined, but it's very like something they might have made in the years after Footfall. (That is, Michael was a much cruder affair. But I sure like this.)"

I built the master parts for the Orion model... designed in CAD, grown via stereolithograhy and hand-finished. The "Battleship" is based on actual General Atomics designs from 1963. It is a "real" design, though the weapons details are a bit speculative. It's smaller than the Michael by a good amount, as can be seen in the scale rendering here: http://up-ship.com/blog/?p=3432 

Scott Lowther

Thank you!

==

A better "Michael" from Footfall

Dr. Pournelle,

Subject: A better "Michael" from Footfall

While reading your current mail I followed the link to see how the "Michael" from Footfall would look. What is shown is not the "Michael" but there was a link to a conceptual CAD version of "Michael". The link is http://up-ship.com/blog/?p=3432 , look at the far right on the bottom of the image. Now that's a battleship! Thanks for all you do!

Randy Christilles

Great pictures. For those interested in models, I can also refer you to a page here about INSS Macarthur

While searching my recent mail for "Michael" I found this:

Michael Crichton on science and scientists

Hello Jerry,

Michael Crichton 'belabors the obvious':

http://www.michaelcrichton.net/
speech-alienscauseglobalwarming.html 

Since I agree with him, I am all charged up to have you spread the Gospel far and wide.

You, of course, may 'beg to differ'. And act accordingly.

On another note, you often mention the fact that there is not much in the way of testable science going on in the climate science community and suggest that it may be a good idea to do some before committing trillions of dollars and the personal freedom of everyone on the planet to stopping and/or reversing Global Warming.

The central theorem of Global Warming is that humans are injecting large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere as a byproduct of Western Civilization, the anthropogenic CO2 is causing the temperature of the Earth to rise precipitously, the rate of rise is increasing, and the results of the rising temperature will be catastrophic.

To avoid the calamity, it is proposed that an international body be created with worldwide authority to severely regulate any human activity that releases CO2 into the atmosphere and to impose hard limits as to the amount that can be produced. Current suggestions are that an 80% reduction relative to today's production would be appropriate. It is also suggested that in addition to limiting our production of CO2, active measures be taken to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and sequester it. Permanently. These are articles of faith.

Testable science, i. e. ACTUAL science may still have a place at the table, at least potentially. (And NO, I DON'T think that there is ANY chance that the science will be done. But I can suggest it anyway.) So, here we go.

We KNOW (not suspect) that atmospheric CO2 is essential for plant life, and by extension, OUR life. We also KNOW that under controlled conditions, plants do better in atmospheres richer in CO2 than current world ambient. We also KNOW that the climate science community considers the current ambient level too high and proposes that political/technological action be taken--immediately--to stop the rise and if possible reduce the level. We also know (if THOSE books haven't been cooked along with the temperature data) that the current level is around 385 ppm.

Now for the 'testable science'. I propose that a dozen large greenhouses be constructed. Large enough to house a large variety of plants important to the human food chain. The environment in the greenhouses should be controlled to be as identical as feasible, with the exception that each greenhouse would have a different level of CO2, starting at 100 ppm and going up to 650 ppm in 50 ppm steps. 100 ppm is below the level that is achievable through strict limits on human production and/or sequestering and 650 ppm is above any level that we are likely to produce through our 'unrestricted race to dump CO2 into the atmosphere', at least in the immediate future.

Plants would be planted and growth rates monitored. Data would be compiled and reports written. Conclusions would be drawn as to how our efforts to reduce CO2 would affect our food supply, should we be successful. And how our food supply would be affected if we continue our 'unrestricted dumping of CO2'. The experiment would be cheap. And yes, I DO understand that cheap is not necessarily a selling point when it comes to establishing a government program. Of course the experiment would also be cheap enough that a large number of private individuals could conduct it with little financial strain and no government input whatsoever. Except for the inevitable permits that would be required before it could be attempted, naturally.

Just to confirm where I stand on the matter, I think that a curtailed food supply is a FAR greater threat than a rise in sea level of a foot or two, distributed over the next century.

Bob Ludwick

==

Update, re Climate data hack

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/

<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/>  saying it doesn't show much at all

Michael Zawistowski

==

Global Cooling a Myth

An article that I read with teeth gritted:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/26/tech/main5423035.shtml 

The AP gives global temperature data from the last thirty years to four statisticians (without identifying it), and asks if there has been cooling in the last ten. There hasn’t, at least not with statistical significance.

Note the exquisite care used throughout the article: They never ask the statisticians if there has been warming. A couple of them note that one might perhaps find slight warming, but none says that it has statistical significance. It’s clear that they weren’t asked. The Null Hypothesis was, No cooling, and the article repeats it a number of times.

The only reason this came up was that a couple of sources like Super-Freakonomics have mentioned that there has been cooling, not warming, in the last decade. And of course, what they meant is that the Alternate Hypothesis of – significant warming - has not been confirmed. Only Jerry Pournelle cares about Global Cooling these days.

Michael K R

Well, I still worry about it. I think the odds are greater for warming than cooling, but there's a significant chance that it's cooling -- and ice is a lot harder to adjust to than warming and longer growing seasons.

==

And from a year ago:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2009/Q3/view581.html#health 

Home safely and all is well. Sable was glad to see us. The house sitters took Sable for walks so she's not too frantic about it.

You may find this interesting:

Who Will Tell Michael J. Fox to Die? <http://newsletter.spectator.org/t/y/l/kjlltl/ddjjpiul/r

The points it raises are obvious but perhaps personalizing them is the right way to get attention. The only way we can have what amounts to free health care for all is to ration it. Of course once that is done there will be gaming of the system.

Meanwhile they contemplate fat taxes. Recall Lippidleggin' from my anthology Survival of Freedom...

Flippantly:

So if we give everyone food, we have to starve some of them?

More seriously:

Health Care Will Not Reform Itself by Halvorson sets a brilliant framework for the current debate. He presents a very convincing case that quality improvements alone, which do require that doctors conform to set protocols, will produce enough savings to pay for covering the uninsured. BTW, Halvorson is CEO of Kaiser Permanente.

Regards,

Charlie

==

Health care reform:

“The demand for a free good is infinite”.

It is being trumpeted that the United States spends nearly a sixth of its Gross Domestic Product on health care, much more than any other developed country. That’s the problem. But I wonder - is it necessarily a problem at all? We spend a vast amount of money on computers and software, a far larger fraction of our Domestic Product than we did in 1980; probably dozens or hundreds of times as much. Is that a problem? Or does it mean that computers have been enormously successful, so that a lot of products are available that meet a lot of people’s needs in a way that you couldn’t do in 1980? We buy ‘em because we want ‘em.

Why can’t that be true for health care as well? There is obviously a very high commercial demand for products that improve our health; for expensive lab tests, for expensive medical procedures, for expensive drugs. Why is that bad? Doesn’t that mean that medical technology has been tremendously successful and is producing a lot of ways to help people that didn’t exist until recently? What - we can’t all afford everything? Twice this last year I refused to buy prescribed drugs because of the price. Does that mean I would rather that the drug companies can’t afford to develop them at all?

I value good software, but I think that all of us value good health even more. We are willing to pay a big chunk of our income for it.

It is hard to quantify this kind of thing. There is a tendency to compare life expectancies in various developed countries and thereby conclude that the US has poor health care. But that isn’t very helpful; maybe Sweden doesn’t have as many crack addicts dying of gunshot wounds or something, or as many unwed mothers not getting proper prenatal care. I believe that if you look at some specific treatment, like five-year survival rates for prostrate cancer, the US is always near the top. It tends to have available any treatment available in the world, plus some available nowhere else. Certainly the lab where I work is continually upgrading its instruments, its tests – and its prices.

American health care spending has roughly doubled in the last ten years ( http://blog.american.com/?p=2991 ). Ask your local doctor: Is this because you or your colleagues are ordering lots of tests you don’t need (as President Obama said recently)? Or is it (also, partly, largely) because there are tests, drugs, and techniques available now which you feel do a clearly superior job?

Doesn’t necessarily mean that we shouldn’t set up some kind of national system. As Mitt Romney pointed out when he set up Massachusetts’ system (whatever its faults), we already pay to take care of everyone, in emergency rooms. That’s ridiculous; if we’re going to require that everything must be treated, it makes sense to try to do it more sensibly. But turning the rest of the system upside down because of that group will, I think, kill a lot of people. So will “cutting costs”, if that means placing a cap on what the industry can earn.

Best regards,

mkr

I agree with the last paragraph but the basic publicly paid system has to be limited to essentials; and that will not happen.

===========

'Now picture her expression as the TSA employee started to smile.'

<http://www.philly.com/philly/news/local/
20100121_Daniel_Rubin__It_was_no_joke
_at_security_gate.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

Kabuki Theater in action.

==========

Subject: No New Taxes!

Gosh Jerry - you seem to be buying into the "Tea Party" line a lot lately. Brown's election is more a symbol of what is right about the Tea Party line than anything else I can think of, but that is still precious little. Nor does it say much of anything about the Democrats.

In general, this Tea Party line is nothing more than the Neocons coming up with another way to scare and agitate the public. Anger *always* comes from fear, and so the Tea Party, obedient to their neocon masters, agitates it's membership to produce fear. The end result? A lot of Fox friendly snarling and snapping, and a lot of yapping. In this case, enough to get Brown elected. Personally, I think that is a good thing, not because of the Tea Party line, but because it defangs the Senate a bit. I would have been just as happy if the parties had been reversed. (i.e. Republican control lost to a Democrat.)

I still fear we are going to have another Civil War, and this time, it will so throughly wreck the country that we may never recover. Or the end result might more resemble Russia than the U.S. It won't be between the North and the South this time, but between those who side with the Tea Party, and those who just want to be left alone - which is most everybody I suppose.

Do not forget, in a Republican controlled U.S., you either support the Republican agenda or you are "un-Americun." And lord forbid you want to exercise any personal rights, or rail against some kind of unfair discrimination.

Of course, objectively, Democrats may not be much better - and have their own "tea party" group. But, Democrats are not as unified as the Republicans as a group; they agree on fewer things, and as a consequence, appear to be far more tolerant of odd or fringe behavior than Republicans. This is not a bad thing, in my opinion.

-Paul

That is not my view. The nation is very much divided, but not to civil war levels. In the War Between the States the conflict had some geographical limits. This time it would be Bleeding Kansas, more similar to Lebanon than Bull Run and Cold Harbor. God save us from that.

==

Tea Party 

Doctor Pournelle,

A response by one of your contributors has me in a quandary.

Quoting "Paul",

"Gosh Jerry - you seem to be buying into the "Tea Party" line a lot lately. Brown's election is more a symbol of what is right about the Tea Party line than anything else I can think of, but that is still precious little. Nor does it say much of anything about the Democrats.

In general, this Tea Party line is nothing more than the Neocons coming up with another way to scare and agitate the public. Anger *always* comes from fear, and so the Tea Party, obedient to their neocon masters, agitates its membership to produce fear."

I've followed the Tea Party fairly closely. I even attended part of the demonstration in Washington City. Where, and who, are these neo-cons Paul speaks of? There is quite a bit of resistance in the movement towards accepting or allowing, nominally "conservative", Politicians like Newt to speak at Tea Party events. From what I see and hear there is no tolerance at all for RINOs (republicans in name only) at any of the events (not that the RINOs haven't tried to co-op us). The people I know in the Party equate "neo-con" with Liberal and wish nothing to do with them.

Thank you for what you do.

Best Regards,

Paul T.

Your observations are fairly close to mine. I published the note because it was startling, not because I agree.

I think it is a mistake to make ideologies out of party politics. What is needed is a consensus that there is too much government and too little subsidiarity and transparency. What I want is a time when I don't have to be frightened if my party loses. I haven't had that assurance since the liberals decided that the tigers are gone and we can get on with progressivism. But then I never felt very assured when my party won the elections either. I do not believe the United States should roam the world looking for dragons to slay, or that Washington ought to be more important to my life than my own city.

=========================

Report: Boots Back Home: Haiti, piece by piece...

Jerry, FYI.

---- To my family, friends and friends of friends -

First of all, I am humbled by the outpouring of support that Carla and I have received since last Friday when I received the offer to jump on a medical supply plane to fly to Haiti.

The details of our journey would challenge even the most interested of you to endure, so I won't belabor that. I would like to distill my experience down as best I can and share what I've learned from my time on the ground among the Haitian folks I was blessed to encounter.

The Haitians are an amazing culture. I found them friendly, patient, appreciative and incredibly resilient. They are, for a variety of reasons, thoroughly impoverished, and most in the country lack what we would consider even the most basic of daily needs. The average per capita income is $300.

Per year.

The damage resulting from last week's earthquake is devastating. As I watched CNN coverage this afternoon, and replayed the events of the last few days in my head, I can assure you that the images are every bit as tragic as they seem. The damage is beyond belief. The suffering is palpable. The smells are real. But the people are not broken in spirit.

One Haitian told me that his advice to those around him is "patience". He said they have a saying in Haiti, "Piz a piz" (phonetically) which translates to "piece by piece".

There are amazing missionaries representing Christ throughout the country. Most of the guys and girls I met are pouring their energy into the children, either through childrens' homes, orphanages or support centers. Two in Jacmel I would direct your support to are "Hands and Feet" and "Joy in Hope". I've rarely seen people "walk the walk" like these people. They are changing lives every day.

We also had the opportunity to interact with various military personnel on a daily basis.

We joined with a Canadian expeditionary force on Monday in Jacmel to assess the injured people in that town. Jacmel was cut off from any possible ground support from Port au Prince (as if there was any to share, right?), though greatly effected by the quake as well. The Canadians have chosen to direct their efforts into that town, and should have a field hospital up and running by Friday. They will ease the suffering quickly when that is done. They were very professional and clearly motivated to help.

After we arrived at the airfield in Port au Prince, we connected with the US military medical personnel as well. These guys are working hard and doing great work. We also met several other civilian orthopedic surgeons and medical personnel that were trying to get more supplies flown in. The docs in the local hospitals had lots of patients, but few beds and were either out of medical supplies or medications.

The way Port au Prince is currently managed, the UN has responsibility for the city and the US military has control over the airspace and the airfield and is managing the huge amounts of material being brought in for distribution. This is an air field that typically sees 5-15 flights a day. It is a single runway. They are now coordinating up to 280 flights a day! Every incoming flight has a specific time slot assigned. It is not negotiable. Every flight and its contribution is carefully and specifically assessed with regard to its need and time/space available.

I have chosen to address this specifically, because reports through the media have - either out of frustration or the need for even higher drama - continued to highlight the lack of supplies, portraying it as some sort of dereliction. I spoke with a Major in charge of assigning flight slots about this specifically, since I had been in contact directly with a major orthopedic trauma supplier that was having trouble getting to the island.

What we all need to understand is that the one airstrip that is available must supply 2 million people a day with food and water. The number of flights necessary to make that happen is enormous, maybe more than they can handle. So they are always playing catch-up just supplying the necessities. Add to that the influx of military personnel, both US and UN, and you have a logistical nightmare. If they are able to restore the port to a usable state, the supply side of the equation will quickly be solved.

In the meantime, decisions have to be made with regard to what is essential at that time, based on best information, and I'm personally glad that someone else is making those incredibly hard decisions. They care, deeply, about what they are doing, and they are doing their best. I've never met a finer, more dedicated group of young men and women in my life, and I am proud of what they are doing in this crisis in the name of our country.

Medically, all around Haiti, the problem appears purely logistical as well. Every health care provider I spoke with said the same thing: the problem is not personnel. Doctors, nurses and the rest are in the country and ready and willing to work. There are no facilities that anyone could identify that needed more help at this time. Remember, mounting injuries do not necessarily equate to an increased need for providers. The rate-limiting step in this arena is access; access to facilities, beds, OR's and supplies.

As an illustration, The Methodist Hospital has 900 beds; Ben Taub, 650. There are 30 "hospitals" in the entire Port au Prince metropolitan area on a good day. Three have over 100 beds. Total beds, all institutions, 3.5 million people: around 1600. And that was before the earthquake.

There are an estimated 250,000 injured to a variable degree.

Do the math.

They need more beds and more supplies (from a medical perspective) more than anything, regardless of what Anderson Cooper tells you. It broke my heart when messages starting pouring in about how "doctors were desperately needed" in Port au Prince, according to the media. I knew that surgeons all over the country would be thinking about doing what we did - jumping the first flight to Haiti to try and ease the need.

What they need are more hospital beds and OR's, and that is exactly what is happening day by day. The arrival of the USNS Comfort today adds 1000 patient beds, 80 intensive care unit beds, 950 naval hospital staff and 12 operating rooms.

So what do YOU do?

My family will be praying - for the broken folks, for the hungry, for the thirsty, for our soldiers, for the pilots and drivers, for the medical staff. They need wisdom, discernment, faith, safety, protection, hope, courage and patience.

My family will be giving - to the orphanages, to the suppliers (like World Food Program), to the Red Cross, to anyone else that I think needs it more than we do.

My family will be planning - on how we can contribute with our "hands and feet", walking the walk, as it were. I want to go back soon. I will plan better next time. I will connect with an organization that can best direct my skills, perhaps to a facility where the staff needs a break or a respite of sorts. And I want to take my family to Jacmel, to meet these folks that have given their lives to love children that no one else would love.

I'll close saying thanks again for your prayers for me and my family. I felt every one. Through God, they gave me the courage to do things that were beyond what I could do alone.

Let's not waste this earthquake. Let's be both persistent and patient. Let's make life better for these wonderful people in the end and show them more of what the love of our Saviour looks like.

Blessings,

Dave

<http://clk.atdmt.com/GBL/go/196390709/direct/01/

 

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Saturday, January 23, 2010

NAS call for asteroid defense.

<http://abcnews.go.com/
Technology/wireStory?id=9635376>

More on asteroid defenses.

<http://www.space.com/news/
space-rock-earth-threat-100122.html>

-- Roland Dobbins

===========

- Haiti solution

Dear Jerry,

I wonder if the most humane solution to Haiti is to make it a part of the United States just like Puerto Rico. Since there is no government there to speak of and I would guess that the UN running the show would only make it worse, just take it over and then Congress would have the chance to help them.

Rick Dahl

Systems Engineer and about to renew……

Humane it might be, but alas, the United States can't afford it.

=========

Medical Costs

" We spend a vast amount of money on computers and software, a far larger fraction of our Domestic Product than we did in 1980; probably dozens or hundreds of times as much. Is that a problem? Or does it mean that computers have been enormously successful, so that a lot of products are available that meet a lot of people's needs in a way that you couldn't do in 1980? We buy 'em because we want 'em."

There was a good book several years ago that did a very good comparison on true standards of living of the 60's/70's versus the 90's. One of the conclusions was that health care costs had actually dropped - if one was willing to restrict oneself to treatments available in 1970.

Gene Horr

==========

Subject: NBC

Hi Dr. P.

Perhaps you could mention to your Hollywood contacts that while NBC is sorting out the Jay/Conan debacle, they could re-run Kings. As far as I can remember, only about half of the 12 episode first season ever aired.

-Dave Porter

Not sure I know anyone relevant to that. It was an interesting series.

==========

Subject: USSC campaign finance decision and Trijicon Inc.

Hello again Dr.Pournelle,

Given that the USSC, in Citizens United vs Federal Elections Commission, has decided to end the corporate (and union) gag rule, and also given that Trijicon, Inc. has agreed to stop encoding bible verses into the product number on its excellent ACOG rifle telescopes, (that the Army and Marines are buying by the hundreds of thousands) perhaps the good people of Trijicon will use the production cost savings to fund political causes and/or candidates whom they feel merit their support.

I still remember when every Buck Knife shipped from the (US) factory with a company printed gospel tract in the box. Nobody seemed to mind.

All the best to you and yours.

Dave Porter

Interesting. I'll have more to say on the court decision next week.

===========

Re: American Thinker on CRU, GISS and Climategate

Jerry,

A good read on the continuing exposure of fraud in climate science.

Regards, George

http://wattsupwiththat.com/
2010/01/22/american-thinker-
on-cru-giss-and-climategate/

One needs to be careful on both sides of this. I continue to contend that we don't really know what's going on. There certainly is Arrhenius Global Warming -- but most of the dire predictions are from theoretical feedback loops in the models, and the evidence doesn't seem too strong for those. There's a good chance that the feedback works the other way: CO2 increases some atmospheric warming, which increases humidity, which increases precipitation; can indeed cause more snow causing more glaciers. We really do not know what those feedback loops do. For the moment the thinking is that it causes increased heating, but I can recall papers at AAAS meetings that presented the opposite loop.

We don't know, and we need more precise data.

============

Disaffected Republican and the Massachusetts Miracle

Jerry,

You are spot on with:

"This is not a turn to Republicanism in Massachusetts, and the Republicans had better not think it was. This was a big tea party. Or so it seems to me."

The Republicans have a lot to demonstrate before I can consider them trustworthy. To me Bush 43 was a RINO with regard to finances and how the government acted in the first TARP.

I believe the Republicans lost their way with Kirk's fourth, ninth, and tenth principles of conservatism and were rightly thrown out.

<http://www.kirkcenter.org/index.php/
detail/ten-conservative-principles/

"....Fourth, conservatives are guided by their principle of prudence.

Burke agrees with Plato that in the statesman, prudence is chief among virtues. Any public measure ought to be judged by its probable long-run consequences, not merely by temporary advantage or popularity...."

....Ninth, the conservative perceives the need for prudent restraints upon power and upon human passions.

Politically speaking, power is the ability to do as one likes, regardless of the wills of one's fellows. A state in which an individual or a small group are able to dominate the wills of their fellows without check is a despotism, whether it is called monarchical or aristocratic or democratic.

....Tenth, the thinking conservative understands that permanence and change must be recognized and reconciled in a vigorous society.

The conservative is not opposed to social improvement, although he doubts whether there is any such force as a mystical Progress, with a Roman P, at work in the world...."

For any Republican incumbent who has ignored the principles, beware. I will support a primary challenge.

I have always felt that money in local races should be local, but the current makeup of the House and Senate is one I can no longer ignore. All races are now local until prudence becomes preeminent again.

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

Bush 41 was the real RINO as you put it, although I don't use that phrase. He was a typical country club republican. Even then the Republicans ran in 1994 the only man Clinton could beat; it was after all Dole's right to run then. It was his turn. Bush 43 was a privileged young aristocrat; he wasn't a Creep but he was amenable to the ravenous wolves who were running the Congress, pretending to be conservative while spending like mad. Bush 43 could have been persuaded that there are things desirable in themselves that ought not be done by the nation but ought to be left to the states or private action; but no one tried to so persuade him. Or that's my view.

The problems of the nation are not so much due to Bush 43  as to those who came after Gingrich in the Congress. I blame Newt: not for his marital transgressions but for being so ashamed that he resigned. Once he was gone the wolves were loose. There were no restraining principles in operation.

The American people turned out the Creeps. Unfortunately, they elected the Nuts.

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