| Monday
June 1, 2009 Race, IQ, and Motivation
Jerry,
I have a strong suspicion that any racial differences
that might be found in IQs and intellectual pursuits are caused by
environment and motivation. While my observations are limited they are
surprising.
The arithmetical skills of African-Americans have been
called into question. I have found this to be somewhat amusing having seen
many African-Americans at race tracks compute parlay payoffs in their heads
much faster than I can and I have a degree in mathematics. This would appear
to justify the view that motivation is a very important factor in acquiring
skills.
Perhaps this is something that has escaped the
attention of the Educator critters and others. In general it would appear
that people of all ages must understand the NEED to learn something before
they will expend the effort to learn it.
In what might have been the typical American Home, The
parents provided the motivation and explained the Need by the following; "If
you don't certain desirable privileges with be withheld."
Bob Holmes
Well said and provocative. Clearly motivation is
a great factor.
I can only say that there have been enormous and
expensive attempts to raise IQ. I will also point out that the Congress
has the absolute power to do as it wills with the DC school system: if
there is anything that CAN be done, Congress has the power to do it. And I
for one wish them well. A general 5-point incres in IQ across the board
would raise enormously the productivity of the United States, and if it
can demonstrably be done in DC it will be applied across the nation.
Note the results of the national spelling bee,
incidentally. Motivation certainly applies among Asians.
===========
Murray's Math Example
Dear Jerry,
The problem with the math example posted in Sunday's
View is one of context.
Remember what has taken center stage in schools these
days and how the math questions need to be written to reflect those changes.
I offer two options:
1. A small, hip company employs ninety workers. Ten
percent of those workers have benefits as friends with one another. How many
people in the company are engaging in sex?
2. Of the ninety workers employed by a company, ten
percent of the employees deal drugs to the other workers. How many people
are dealing drugs? How many people are buying? Extra credit if you can name
the drugs being dealt.
<tongue in cheek>
Sue
============
Hyperinflation
Dr. Pournelle,
This is from the teaser for an article from this
morning’s WSJ (6/1/09). I don’t have the subscription, but the teaser
conveys the message: the whirlwind is coming.
A hedge fund firm that reaped huge rewards betting
against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another
wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to
hyperinflation.
The firm, Universa Investments L.P., is known for its
ties to gloomy investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller
"The Black Swan," which describes the impact of extreme events on the world
and financial markets.
Funds run by Universa, which is managed and owned by
Mr. Taleb's long-time collaborator Mark Spitznagel, last year gained more
than 100% thanks to its bearish bets. ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124380234786770027.html
John Witt
I have reviewed Taleb's books here. He's very
much worth paying attention to. And I have my 3 pfennig stamp overprinted
to 3 mird millionem marks...
==============
Letter from England
I finally broke down and bought a mobile phone--an
iPhone 3G. It's a nice toy, but I don't know how useful it will be.
Labour has given up--52 Labour MPs have asked for
peerages. <http://tinyurl.com/mo64o4
>.
Labour minister proposes state funding of political
parties <http://tinyurl.com/lvqoqk
>. Individual donations would be capped at a few hundred pounds... I
wonder if the BNP or the UKIP would get any of this money at all.
Upcoming EU election looks bad for Labour. <http://tinyurl.com/kw45sr>
<http://tinyurl.com/mkphgg>
More stories on student visas. <http://tinyurl.com/kng7oq>
<http://tinyurl.com/nsmt3b > <http://tinyurl.com/kng7oq>
<http://tinyurl.com/kpu2sb>.
What the Home Office seems to be requiring are daily attendance checks and
frequent checks on where students are resident. This will probably not have
as much effect as the severe difficulties foreign students now face getting
student visas at all.
-- Harry Erwin harry.erwin@sunderland.ac.uk
Will there always be an England?
I have been reading some older Agatha Christie
novels about the time between the wars. That England is certainly gone. I
am not at all sure that its replacement is a better place to live. But I
don't live there.
=============
I may have already run this, but:
The "Obama is going after Republican car dealers" meme
Megan McArdle's reaction:
http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/
archives/2009/05/closing_chryslers_dealers_cui.php
"My operating assumption is that this story is a red
herring. Democratic and Republican dealers are unlikely to be found in the
same place, and the rural counties that tend to be red are probably less
profitable."
Nate Silver's mathematical analysis:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/
news-flash-car-dealers-are-republicans.html
"It turns out that all car dealers are, in fact,
overwhelmingly more likely to donate to Republicans than to Democrats -- not
just those who are having their doors closed." ... "It shouldn't be any
surprise, by the way, that car dealers tend to vote -- and donate --
Republican. They are usually male, they are usually older (you don't own an
auto dealership in your 20s), and they have obvious reasons to be
pro-business, pro-tax cut, anti-green energy and anti-labor. Car dealerships
need quite a bit of space and will tend to be located in suburban or rural
areas. I can't think of too many other occupations that are more natural
fits for the Republican Party."
I expect there's a good bit of truth to that. On
the other hand, we'll see what happens next.
==============
Sequestration is capture, and cherrypicking chaos
subjects again
Dr. Pournelle,
The British are attempting sequestration in
significant volumes using what appear to be catalytic chemical scrubbers.
This article about a feasibility study states lofty goals but has no mention
of costs per kW/hr, nor what they plan to do with the gas after they catch
it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/
scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8072583.stm
I'm going to start using "carbon capture," as
preference over the term sequestration. It is more descriptive. Both words
imply a potentially temporary situation, but "captured" implies the
application of force, has fewer syllables, and is in common usage. Thank
you, once again, BBC, for teaching me my native tongue.
Now, if my fellow Americans would just stop using
"_Unmanned_ aerial vehicle," for remotely piloted aircraft: it is hard to
remain serious when one thinks that one may as easily be discussing flying
eunuchs or emasculated aircraft. Note to self -- don't chuckle while the
general is speaking.
Perhaps one thing to do with the captured carbon is to
leave it underground for several million years, then burn it, displacing
carbon release into the far future (save it for after the next ice age).
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/
2009/05/090527110137.htm but I can't see why burning carbon from
mud shale is better than using coal, with which the British isles are amply
endowed.
Windpower from inflatables
http://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2009/05/090528092526.htm but a prop or turbine based wind
generator seems more efficient than generating power from a kite.
Steam power for those going off grid:
http://www.defensenews.com/story.
php?i=4070490&c=FEA&s=TEC.
If one wants multi-fuel power at home, why not look at external combustion
again? If it can be produced cheaply, a well-designed, multifuel,
high-pressure steam generator would likely be more efficient and easily
maintained than one with an IC engine optimized for a single fuel type.
High-pressure steam production could be augmented by low-tech, low-volume
solar heating. Leno's steam cars are still running efficiently, given
restoration, many years after they were built.
Link to "Democracy in America" volume 1 on Gutenberg:
http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/815 The HTML version, at 1.15 MB is
the largest data size.
For perspective, one should perhaps read Mark Twain's
description of a trip upriver from New Orleans, post-flooding, to gain an
idea of how Americans once dealt with disaster. It is probably part of "Life
on the Mississippi" but I'm having trouble finding which essay it was. A lot
of Clemen's work is on Gutenberg and at
http://www.mtwain.com/.
Espresso books -- Didn't Heinlein write about a
character who used print-on-demand technology for the newspaper? The story
was predecessor to _Friday_.
Light weight artillery
http://www.defensenews.com/
story.php?i=4112946&c=AME&s=LAN. perhaps suitable for mounting on
cargo aircraft for ground support?
-d
=================
Just a minute....
Dear Jerry:
The "no smiling" rule for driver's license photos is
to allow the facial recognition software in the system to work and prevent
someone from applying for a license under two different names. This prevents
fraud and identity theft, among other things. It would also allow fugitives
to be detected.
On the EBM. There is a fairly neat video online that
shows it in action but it's currently operating in only about a dozen places
in the world. The manufacturer is pushing it at the BEA show in New York but
at $95,000 each, it's going to be a hard sell. Lightning Source was probably
contacting vendors because they need separate agreements in writing to put
our books in the system. They did this when they wanted to put all of my
e-books into the Sony Reader format. It's going to hard for owners of these
machines to make a buck even with the usual 40% discount because they will
need to be attended and be in really great high traffic locations. Not that
that will help the sales of any individual book. It's going to premium
pricing all the way, much like what we pay for food at airport concessions.
There is also an option that allows people to insert a disc and print out
their own books on the spot. Now that would be an unusual book signing,
wouldn't it?
There was an article in the Los Angeles Times about
John Sayles and the problems he's having selling his new novel to a
mainstream publisher. Considering how he broke into the film industry, it's
not impossible or even unlikely that he would eventually publish it himself
he can't find a good deal. Just another older author of historical fiction
who can't get no respect.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
============
That Bible Study Story
Jerry, I'd be willing to bet fairly serious money that
the San Diego home bible study flap started out as a complaint by the
neighbors about all the parked cars of the visitors, and the traffic getting
those cars in and out of the immediate vicinity.
Hold a big party once in a while, and the neighbors
will probably put up with it, especially if you invite them. Hold a big
party every Tuesday night, every week, and sooner or later someone is going
to get seriously ticked off. The police may or may not have been called, to
ask people not to park there. The police may have told the neighbor which
city office to call.
Every church I've ever seen had at least one large
room, other than the sanctuary, that could accommodate all kinds of uses.
Wedding receptions are one common use. Sunday School is another. The simple
answer is for the pastor to recognize that discretion is the better part of
valor and move the Bible Study sessions out of his house and into the church
meeting room.
John
Perhaps. Note that my street fills every day with
mothers parking to go get their children from the local school. It's part
of living here.
=============
Energy Costs
Dr. P:
Your correspondent Lindy Creede observed that I'd have
been better off investing my $12K at 5% rather than installing PV and
offsetting my electricity costs.
This isn't actually true, as I'll show below:
If I assume that my electricity costs are going to go
up an average of 5% per year, which I believe is a little bit below the
historical Colorado average, then my $700 electricity bill for 2007 when I
installed the PV array would increase to about $1250/year in 13 years and
would have repaid my capital outlay at that point.
But I'm overproducing with my system and getting an
additional $100/year from Xcel (also indexed by 5%) which brings the capital
payback down to 11 years.
If I had invested my $12K at 5% instead and continued
to pay my electricity bill, my $12 would be worth about $8700 at the end of
year 11, and would be gone on year 18.
On year 18 with my panels I will have offset $22K
worth of power costs. If I work backwards from that, the point at which
investing $12K at 5% is equivalent to offsetting my electricity costs is
between years 14 & 15.
There are other factors at play that are less cold &
hard, but not necessarily less relevant. In Colorado we generate a lot of
electricity with coal, and while I don't necessarily agree with the "CO2 is
poison" crowd, I'm pretty clear that I'd like to help reduce the other
pollutants being being spewed by the power plant 10 miles from here. As
well, my PV array offsets the need to spin up natural gas turbines in the
heat of the sunny summer days - reducing the need to burn natural gas and
lowering the rate at which natural gas rates increase.
And then there is the plug-in car I one day hope to
own. My excess electric production will offset some of what I need to keep
that vehicle charged - and offsetting the price of gasoline in a few years
with electricity that I'm selling to the power company at wholesale rates
can't be a bad thing.
Rob
The obvious answer is nuclear power as we develop
space resources.
==========
Tin supplies
Jerry:
Gregory Guida writes that we have about 35 years of
tin reserves left. I wonder if he'd be up to making a version of the Julian
Simon bet. Say, one dollar for each percentage change in the inflation
adjusted price of tin a decade from now? If it's higher, he gets the money,
and if it's lower, he pays out.
I think that bet is still a sore point with Paul
Ehrlich.
..................Karl Lembke
I thought of saying that as answer to the mail
but I was short on time. Thanks.
==========
How Hawks See the World,
Jerry
It figures that videocams would get small enough to mount on birds. Now,
How Hawks See the World:
http://wimp.com/hawkssee
YouTube version, with ads:
http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=p-_RHRAzUHM
Peregrine and Goshawk in flight. Magnificent.
Ed
The first one without ads worked fine.
Interesting!
=============
Sotomayor and Twisting the Law
"Her ability to find good reasons for doing what she
thinks we ought to do is not particularly remarkable. That is an ancient
art."
Indeed it is. The famous judges in American legal
history -- Cardozo, Holmes, Brandeis, Frankfurter -- are, at bottom, chiefly
renowned as experts in twisting the existing law and precedent into
providing a specious retionale that allows what Mencius Moldbug calls The
Cathedral to do what it wants to do, law and Constitution to the contrary
notwithstanding. The recent Kelo decision is only one of a long line of such
cases. Researching the Gold Clause Cases from Roosevelt's semi-fascism were
what persuaded me out of law and into an honest profession.
-- Tim of Angle
Cardozo and company were liberal but not judicial
activists. I will have much to say on that shortly. But yes, they were
able to find powers for Congress that would have astonished the Framers.
It is the Enlightened ruling to the benefit of
the benighted. Or at least they see it that way.
==============
I have referenced this elsewhere but if you have
not seen it...
Jerry
Pravda ("Truth") finally told the truth - American
capitalism gone with a whimper, it says:
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/107459-0/
They talk about our descent into Marxism. Ironic,
isn't it?
Ed
The Russians, who ought to know, sympathize at
the same time they are astonished at our descent into Marxism. I've had
problems getting to the site but it's worth it if you have not seen it.
The Russians feel sorry for America...
=============
Sotomayor vs. Summers controversies
Jerry,
I think the current controversy over Sotomayor's one
liner will subside, and she will be confirmed to the Supreme Court in fairly
short order. The statement generating the controversy is,
“I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the
richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better
conclusion than a white male who hasn’t lived that life,”
I thought back to Larry Summers statement that caused
him to become the former president of Harvard University, and I thought it
might be interesting to compare it with the Sotomayor statement:
"It does appear that on many, many different human
attributes -- height, weight, propensity for criminality, overall IQ,
mathematical ability, scientific ability -- there is relatively clear
evidence that whatever the difference in means -- which can be debated --
there is a difference in the standard deviation, and variability of a male
and a female population. And that is true with respect to attributes that
are and are not plausibly, culturally determined."
Both of these have to be taken in the context they
were delivered; both of them have to be put in context with all the
statements each individual made on the subject and the actions that they
took. A key difference is that Summers is backed by lots of data, and
Sotomayor is encapsulating her own anecdotal experiences (we like to say
"life story" nowadays).
Of course, Summers was crucified, and the process made
an utter mockery of "academic freedom". Probably, nothing much will happen
with Sotomayor.
Will these have the same outcomes? That's what will
make the point about where we are as a society.
Chuck
============
Solar Cycles
Jerry,
Nods: Drudge
Slow solar cycle could pack surprises...
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/
y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
<snip> <http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/
y2009/images/noaaprediction/29696
9main_flare_sxilabeled_HI.jpg> "If our prediction is correct,
Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any
cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman
Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.<snip>"Even a
below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points
out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance,
occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for
2013."<snip>In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous
signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with
increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface
("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s
equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in
solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening
Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous
forecast.
June 1 Frost in upstate New York
http://www.uticaod.com/archive/x
1175994993/May-to-go-out-under-a-freeze-watch
Local gardeners may want to take special measures to
protect their plants this evening as a frost advisory has been issued for
much of New York state, including Oneida County.
The advisory issued by the National Weather Service
remains in effect until 8 a.m. Monday.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid-to-low
30s overnight, and a hard frost is likely as temperatures in colder areas
approach freezing.<snip>
Jim
===========
Charles F Adams on Imperialism,
Jerry
I am reading a couple of pieces by Charles F Adams
called "Imperialism" and "The Tracks of Our Forefathers," from 1898, in
which he "discussed the question of extra-territorial expansion from the
historical point of view."
In the first, he notes the end of the Spanish Empire
in America and the recent defeat of Turkish forces by Greece. He says, "The
two, Ottoman rule in Europe, and Spanish rule in America, now stand at the
bar of history; and, scanning the long four-century record of each, I have
been unable to see what either has contributed to the accumulated
possessions of the human race, or why both should not be classed among the
many instances of the arrested civilization of a race, developing by degrees
an irresistible tendency to retrogression." Strong stuff.
Having won the Spanish-American War, "A wholly new
problem was thus suddenly presented to the people of the United States. On
the one hand, it is asserted that, by destroying Spanish government in these
islands, the United States has assumed responsibility for them, both to the
inhabitants and to the world. This is a moral obligation. On the other hand,
trade and commercial inducements are held out which would lead us to treat
these islands simply as a commencement--the first installment--in a system
of unlimited extra-territorial dependencies and imperial expansion." He
discusses the changes in our principles that would be required, then he
says, "as historical investigators, and so observing the sequence of events,
it cannot escape our notice that on every one of the fundamental principles
discussed,--whether ethnic, economical, or political,--we abandon the
traditional and distinctively American grounds and accept those of Europe,
and especially of Great Britain, which heretofore we have made it the basis
of our faith to deny and repudiate."
It's a great snapshot of that moment. He saw it
leading to a potential fault line in American development. I can't help but
think he was right.
Ed
Never did he dream that his bullet's scream ...
==
Another comment on Charlie Adams,
Jerry
Oh, the man is nasty funny. The sarcasm can be bitter.
He foresees the problems that will come from abandoning our industrial and
labor protections. He foresees that Asian labor will be quite cheap indeed.
He even - well, I'll let him tell it:
"To others, older perhaps, but at any rate more deeply
impressed with the difference apt to develop between dreams and actualities,
the situation calls to mind a comparison, more historical it is true, but
less inspiriting so far as a commitment to the new policy is concerned. At
the risk, possibly, of offending some of those present, I will venture to
institute it. In the fourth chapter of the Gospel according to St. Matthew,
I find this incident recorded: "The devil taketh him [the Saviour] up into
an exceeding high mountain, and showeth him all the kingdoms of the world,
and the glory of them; and saith unto him, All these things will I give
thee, if thou wilt fall down and worship me. Then saith Jesus unto him, Get
thee hence, Satan. Then the devil leaveth him, and, behold, angels came and
ministered unto him." Now, historically speaking, and as a matter of
scriptural exegesis, that this passage should be accepted literally is not
supposable. Satan, on the occasion referred to, must not be taken to have
presented himself to the Saviour _in propriâ personâ_ with his attributes of
horns, tail, and cloven hoof, and made an outright proposition of
extra-territorial sovereignty. It was a parable. He who had assumed a lofty
moral attitude was tempted by worldly inducements to adopt a lower
attitude,--that, in a word, common among men. It was a whispering to Christ
of what among nations, is known as "Manifest Destiny;" in that case,
however, as possibly in others, it so chanced that the whispering was not
from the Almighty, but from Satan. Now if, instead of recognizing the source
whence the temptation came, and sternly saying, "Get thee hence, Satan,"
Christ had seen the proposition as a new Mission,--thought, in fact, that he
heard a distinct call to Duty,--and so, accepting a Responsibility thrust
upon him, had hurried down from the "exceeding high mountain," and proceeded
at once to lay in a supply of weapons and to don defensive armor, renouncing
his peaceful mission, he would have done exactly--what Mohammed did six
centuries later!"
He is wordy, but that was a good speech he made!
Ed
==========
No Smiling revisited
Jerry,
Francis suggests, "The "no smiling" rule for driver's
license photos is to allow the facial recognition software in the system to
work and prevent someone from applying for a license under two different
names. This prevents fraud and identity theft, among other things. It would
also allow fugitives to be detected."
Can we not just get software that works? I'd like to
keep smiling, even though I feel less incentive to do so by the day.
Software should accommodate people, not the other way around.
Besides, if I'm a fugitive, I'm going to grow/shave a
beard, get tinted contacts, cheek inserts, collagen injections, plastic
surgery, use makeup, dye my hair, etc.
The more I think about this, the more it sounds like
the Kabuki play "security" we all go through at airports; the appearance of
effectiveness, not the reality. Face scanning software can be defeated so
many ways that have nothing to do with facial expression.
Instead, let's all keep smiling :).
Chuck
Well, this iteration gets the stupid fugitives.
Or should we all just grin like crazy when in public?
===============d
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