| Saturday,
January 24, 2009 'Understand that
corporate America desires mediocrity in filling its job ranks.'
<http://www.takimag.com/blogs/
article/life_as_a_trained_monkey/>
--- Roland Dobbins
==========
Two important essays on empire,culture, and
demographics.
http://www.takimag.com/
sniperstower/article/empire_
undermines_tradition/
<http://www.takimag.com/
sniperstower/article/rome
_and_demographics/>
-- Roland Dobbins
Taki always has an interesting perspective. America
must decide on repbulic or empire and decide rather quickly.
==
Peaceful Transfer of Power
Brian Silverio wrote: "I do not believe it is proper
to call the transfer of power after an assassination peaceful."
I don't think I agree. I'm old enough to remember the
Kennedy assassination and as far as I can recall the transfer of power was
in exact accordance with the Constitution as well as being peaceful. No
troops in the streets, rushing to seize the radio stations, no martial law,
no riots, no round-ups of all the usual suspects.
I sometimes fell like Teddy Roosevelt's contemporary,
but I wasn't and have no recollection of the McKinley assassination or that
transfer of power, but I think it is significant that it is essentially a
footnote to TR's presidency. Even though the assassin was a known anarchist,
there appears to have been little public unrest. Possibly due to the length
of time where McKinley appeared to improve.
The aftermath of the Garfield assassination seems to
have been similarly without incident. Again, possibly because of the long
convalenence.
Of the four transitions of power after the
assassination of a president, the only one that look less than orderly is
probably Lincoln's.
Timothy K. Morris
Chief of Appeals
And in Johnson's case the House impeached him but
the Senate failed to convict. Southern schoolboys used to memorize the names
of the senators who voted no.
=========
It's not just you...
It's not just you. The guy whose girlfriend fell to
her death from a hotel balcony in Florida last month has been charged with
murder. Here's a link to one of the original articles:
<http://www.clickorlando.com/news/18387842/detail.html#->
All of the news articles, both the original and the
ones today about the guy being charged, talk about her falling 16 stories,
but in fact she was on the balcony of a sixteenth-floor room. So, she
actually fell at most 15 stories. But, the article says she fell onto the
roof of the pool, so presumably she actually fell only 14 stories. Unless,
of course, that hotel doesn't have a 13th floor, in which case she only fell
13 stories.
I wish they'd get their numbers straight. What would
be so hard about reporting it as "a woman fell 13 stories from the 16th
floor of the hotel"?
-- Robert Bruce Thompson thompson@ttgnet.com
Well in my case I plead haste...
===========
And when the government of Mexico collapses, what will
the US do?
Dr Pournelle
I do not know, but I predict we will do the same thing
we did the last time the Mexican gov't collapsed: sit back and watch until
some narco-warlord stumbles into New Mexico and shoots up a village
whereupon we will retaliate by sending a punitive expedition to wander
around the Sonoran Desert for some protracted period of time. But who knows?
Maybe the Marines will land at Vera Cruz again and collect customs duties to
pay for the misadventure.
What will happen after that? Again, I don't know, but
historically, after the Mexican body politic committed suicide in the
Revolution/Civil War of 1917-1921 (or pick your dates), the US saw the
influx of millions of Mexican refugees who wanted to escape death for not
supporting the righteous-cause-of-the-week . . . or for not supporting it
with enough enthusiasm. That is when the American Southwest gained its large
Mexican populations, not before. (An example: In 1850, Germans in San
Antonio outnumbered the Spanish-speaking inhabitants.)
So what will happen? People who want to live will seek
a home that provides order in lieu of one that yields violence. That means
Mexicans will move to the US.
Will they assimilate? Not the first generation. The
second will to some degree. The third will be decidely American. The fourth
will have forgotten Spanish.
That ain't a prediction. That's history.
Live long and prosper
h lynn keith
[83% of all statistics are fabrications.]
============
Fences & Tunnels
Dr. Pournelle,
I've long believed a Southern Wall (aka "fence") is
the solution to infiltration of our southern border. However, one thing
concerns me: tunnels.
Even now, absent fortification, these are hardly
unknown on our southern border:
http://www.foxnews.com/
printer_friendly_story/
0,3566,248658,00.html
http://www.nytimes.com/
2007/06/30/us/30tunnel.html
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/issues/2006/july/HuntersUnearth.htm
http://www.todaysalternativenews.com/
index.php?event=link,150&values%5B0%
5D=3&values%5B1%5D=3608
Tunnels also appear to be a logical response to border
fortification:
Korean DMZ:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/
military/world/dprk/kpa-tunnels.htm
Gaza:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/
0114/p06s02-wome.html?page=2
Of course, these tunnels are detectable. But if
smugglers can build new tunnels faster & cheaper than we can detect them,
they could zero out the interdiction capabilities of any fence/wall we
build. So my question is:
1) How easy/cheap/time-consuming is it to build these
sorts of tunnels?
2) Are there easy ways of detecting them (besides
HUMINT), or alternately of deterring their construction?
In the event of a Mexican Civil War, I would prefer
that we focus on insulating ourselves from the effects, in lieu of taking up
the white man's burden (oops, I meant "intervening"). My concern is with the
best methods for accomplishing that goal.
Sincerely,
Matthew Ing
I would think modern technology would detect
tunneling. In the siege of Vienna The Christians put drums scattered over
with dried peas in the basements, and were able to find places where they
needed countermines...
================
Study Pinpoints Main Source of Asia's Brown Cloud,
Jerry
They finally figured out that South Asia's brown cloud
is caused mostly by burning biomass, not fossil fuels:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27
/science/earth/27obbrown.html
"The findings suggest that controls on agricultural
burning and improvements in cookstove technology to allow for more complete
combustion could make as much of a difference, if not more, in lightening
the skies over South Asia as efforts to restrict cars or build
cleaner-burning power plants."
Ed
===========
Japanese car manufacturing
bob said "Toyota ought to not be able to make cars at
a profit doing things this way, but clearly they do. "
a google search of "toyota line stoppage" provides
this:
http://www.strategosinc.com/jidoka_1.htm
and this (the book "The Toyota Way")
http://books.google.com/books?id=9v_
sxqERqvMC&pg=PA131&lpg=PA131&dq
=toyota+line+stoppage&source=web&ots
=g6NSdIrMGH&sig=PI5bLXWnFnFjs5yrp
Gv9AqUyMh8&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_
result&resnum=10&ct=result#PPA130,M1
The bottom line seems to be that it is cheaper to
build quality in at the beginning than to try to fix it later. Line
stoppages and root cause analysis prevent repeated errors.
-Rich
============
Lessons from California
Jerry, I do certainly hope that some folks have
learned a lesson from California. Snippets from Governor Brewer's inaugural
speech:
* For decades, the abundance generated by free,
hardworking Americans has allowed government to remain in the habit of
growing, and in recent years to grow even more rapidly. But today, neither
prudence nor our Constitution will allow this to continue in our state. We
have all been seated to preside over that rarest of political happenings:
our government is going to get smaller.
My fellow Arizonans, it is important to remember that
we cannot budget our way to prosperity, and still less, we will not attain
prosperity by taxing our way there either.
We must make sure that beleaguered businesses in
California and other such overtaxed places hear the music of our commerce
and our culture and see brighter prospects in the cities and towns across
Arizona. *
Then again, it's one thing to give a speech, another
to make it happen.
Best regards as always,
Mark E. Horning, Physicist,
============
Subject: Despair et cetera
Much talk of despair and decline and intractable
problems... most of which are very "tractable" if we had the public and/or
political will power and the intestinal fortitude to follow up. Hard to come
by if folks despair of even the possibility of improvements. I'm hearing a
lot of this from young & old (of which I am pretty much in the middle) about
how the US is "waning"... I don't buy it. Things are bad, but they can be
(and have been) much worse. Some things (such as education) have been (and
can be) much better. How is this grounds for despair unless one is secretly
hoping for the end of days?
I have, however, had some lines of Tennyson running
through my head often lately...
"Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho' We are not
now that strength which in old days Moved earth and heaven, that which we
are, we are,-- One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and
fate, but strong in will To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield."
How "weak" our country is at this point is highly
debatable, but those who despair (as well as some of our more doom-saying
liberals) have chosen to "yield". I'd rather not see that take hold to
become a self-fulfilling prophesy. We have far too long a history of
striving, seeking, and finding... we've been doing it better than most for a
very long time.
I very much agree with you that despair is a sin. With
smart and vocal folks such as yourself and many others on this site still
around to influence the minds of the younger generations, it should
eventually also end up quite unfounded. That was one bit I did enjoy of
Obama's speech - "dust ourselves off and try again" and all that. Whether or
not he follows through in an intelligent and reasoned direction is another
matter, of course. We get to tell him if he did four years out, either way.
I think everyone here knows enough of history to not
only recognize the bits where civilizations crept towards the precipice, but
also that such things ebb and flow over generations rather than moments.
We're in a somewhat dark moment right now... that should not be cause for
despair should it?
So I guess my rambling point is that it's not just a
sin, but unnecessary and unwarranted yet unless we collectively fall prey to
the media hyperbole of how "bad" things are.
Please don't join them... your site is far too much a
source of important things to think about.
Respectfully yours,
J.Scott Cardinal
Having got through brain cancer and come out alive
I have some proclivity to counting blessings...
Thanks
==
Khe Sanh and the Lash
Dear Dr. Pournelle:
You noted with approval Obama referring the Khe Sanh
in his inaugural address. I noticed it too, and thought; he's a centrist,
all right. I count that as outreach to the Republicans.
I also noticed his reference to slavery; that our
ancestors endured sweatshops and the lash for our sake. Well, technically,
no: slavery is, by definition, for the sake of the master. The sweatshop
workers did get some pay, though their wages were low. I count the lash
reference as over-reach. He was a bit _too_ nice there, I think.
Otherwise I thought it a good speech. I liked his
promises of green power and new infrastructure; it's national maintenance
and upgrade, long overdue. He might even mean it. He also decried trading
liberty for security; again I suspect that he's sincere.
Of course promises - and even sincerity - are one
thing, and delivery another. Stay tuned.
- Nathaniel Hellerstein paradoctor@aol.com
PS; recently you stated that there were _three_
Vietnam wars. I read your accounting as three phases of a single war. Your
unorthodox count does give the USA a 2-1 win on points; but only the last
point counted, unless you agree with Chomsky that the West won by
impoverishing alternatives.
And as for war not feeding war; everybody everywhere
agrees that the _other_ guy shouldn't start any more fights.
Which means we should not have defeated chiliastic
communism? I fail to understand the point.
============
A Man of Big Ideas: Remembering Samuel P.
Huntington
http://chronicle.com/weekly/v55/i19/19b09901.htm The Chronicle
of Higher Education, 9.1.16
By AARON L. FRIEDBERG
Since his death on December 24, 2008 at the
age of 81, Samuel P. Huntington has been described as the most influential
political scientist of the past half-century. That label is well deserved,
but it fails to convey the full measure of his achievement. For that, one
needs to look forward rather than back. Fifty years from now (and beyond),
when lesser lights have faded, Huntington's books will continue to be
studied, and not only for what they say about his times, but because of
their enduring relevance to the most fundamental issues of political life.
Huntington's claim to greatness rests on a
body of work that is astonishing for its breadth and originality, to say
nothing of its sheer volume. Time and again, with remarkable regularity
over the course of a career that spanned nearly six decades, Sam tackled
the most important questions of the day: In an era of perpetual threat,
what relationship between the civil and military authorities best
guarantees both security and liberty (The Soldier and the State, 1957)?
How do America's domestic political processes shape (and distort) its
defense policies (The Common Defense, 1961)? What are the determinants of
political stability and economic progress in the developing world
(Political Order in Changing Societies, 1968)? Why is the United States
subject to periods of upheaval of the sort it suffered in the 1960s and
1970s (American Politics: the Promise of Disharmony, 1981)? What are the
causes and likely future trajectory of the surge of democratization that
occurred in the 1980s and 1990s (The Third Wave, 1991)? What will be the
most important sources of conflict in the post-cold-war world (The Clash
of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, 1996)? Do
immigration and "multiculturalism" threaten the cohesion and stability of
American society (Who Are We?, 2004)?< snip >
==========
Cleaning up air pollution apparently increases global
warming in Europe
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7838358.stm
Could AlGore the magnificent have been so wrong…?
First CO2 is classified as a pollutant (if we eliminated it, what would the
plants breathe?) and now we find out that cleaning up the air “may have
amplified the warming of Europe”.
The article ends as well as we could expect, pointing
out somewhat obscurely that maybe we ought to study the problem more so we
understand what’s really going on.
Sean
=============
Did Archimedes anticipate
calculus?!
<http://www.sciencenews.org/view/
generic/id/8974/title/A_Prayer_for_Archimedes>
- Roland Dobbins
It looks very much as if he did. With real
infinity.
==============
Cycles: Foxes firmly in charge ...
for the time being
The Jack Bauer Exception: Obama's executive order
wants it both ways on interrogation.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123267082704308361.html
>>Mr. Obama's Inaugural line that "we reject as
false the choice between our safety and our ideals" was itself
misrepresenting the choices his predecessor was forced to make. At least
President Bush was candid about the practical realities of preventing mass
casualties in the U.S.<<
And so, as Pareto observed long ago, the Lions -- who
are willing to use violence -- are once again displaced by the Foxes -- who
rule by fraud and tricks and reject violence.
http://media.pfeiffer.edu/lridener/dss/Pareto/PARETOW6.HTML
We will see how well *that* works. "This time for
sure!"
But, as a Wise Man keeps saying, "Despair is a sin."
Oremus!
I suppose the good news is that we can pretty
confidently expect the Cycle to turn back again, in due course.
Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com
One ignores Pareto at one's peril. He was an astute
observer of the ways of mankind.
He's also a bit hard to read. The best explication
on Pareto is probably Burnham's The Machiavellians. Alas, the book is not
only out of print, but I have been unable to find a copy at a reasonable
price. I have mine, but I have not seen another for years.
=============
The Threat Of A Jewish Army (to
Israeli Secular Elites)
Given the reports of how angry the IDF is over the
latest Olmert-Livni-Barak government failure of will over Gaza, the
following 22 Oct 2008 piece from Caroline B. Glick bears close watching.
http://www.jewishpress.com/
pageroute.do/36895/
The_Threat_Of_A_Jewi.html
It looks like Israeli and American societies are
paralleling in more than one way. The military establishments in both are
more rural and more religious than the secular elites that govern both
nations. And in Israel, the combat units and emerging senior military
leadership are becoming increasingly estranged from the secular elites that
govern the Jewish State.
The Secular elites in Israel are now reacting to this
development with regard to the IDF.
Religious Zionists today make up about seven percent
of the total population of the country. But their sons comprise twenty
percent of IDF combat soldiers, nearly a quarter of the IDF's junior officer
corps, and fifty percent of its company commanders.
The growing prominence of religious Zionists in all
combat arms of the IDF is a consequence of a now two-decade trend among
religious Zionists in Israel to serve in combat units - the more elite, the
better. A contrary trend among upper middle class secular youth not to serve
in the IDF at all renders the contribution of the religious youth all the
more noticeable to the general public and all the more crucial for the IDF.
and
These countervailing social currents of increased
religious participation and decreased secular participation in fighting
units was brought to the public's attention in a graphic manner during the
Second Lebanon War. In the course of the war, only one soldier from Tel Aviv
was killed in battle while over a dozen soldiers from religious communities
were killed in combat.
The difference between America and Israel is that the
secular elites in Israel sees what is coming as far as military promotions
are concerned. They want to prevent the religious Jews who homestead in
elite units -- where future generals come from -- from taking away the upper
ranks of the IDF from the current Generals who have ties of blood, culture
and money to the secular elites.
Under the title "Without a Lord of (Military) Hosts,"
the paper demanded that IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi
"put the military rabbinate in its place" and force it to limit its
activities to ensuring that IDF grub is kosher and that religious soldiers
have what they need to observe religious laws. Haaretz further insisted that
the position of chief rabbi be cancelled and that the position of "chief
religious services officer" be created in its place. As the editorial put
it, "The injection of a religious dimension into the Israel Defense Forces'
goals constitutes a serious internal threat."
The push before the Lebanon war inside the IDF for
"High Tech" and a "Air force centric" military force was less about the
military security of Israel than it was a power play by the secular elites
in Labour, Likud and Kadma to keep the elite ground combat unit oriented
religious officers from evicting secular IDF senior brass from the secular
elite, procurement corruption, gravy train over time.
The recent Gaza fighting is the second political
failure of will by Israel's Secular Elites in two years to fully destroy the
enemies of Israel, when they had the opportunity. It has sown and fertilized
the seeds of discord between those who fight for the Jewish State and those
who do not.
The comments of people like Yoni Tidi, a former IDF
Colonel, at http://www.yonitheblogger.com/, make that very clear.
Israel has declared victory and a cease fire, never
mind the 14 rockets and 3 mortars fired into Israel resulting in two wounded
since the "victory" was proclaimed by our leaders. Our leaders are fools and
are laying the foundation, for the next destruction of Israel and massive
suffering and death of Jews. They seek protection from our enemies by
countries, which are not our friends and will do little or nothing to
protect Jewish lives. Our leaders feel no guilt or shame at the loss of life
on both sides that achieved nothing. To kill our enemy is part of war, but
to kill our enemy without gaining victory and security is immoral. To kill
our boys in a campaign that gained nothing is so wrong, that I can't
understand how our leaders can ever look our soldiers in the eyes again,
much less those of us that have given our sons to the IDF. This "victory" is
worse than our "victory" over Hezbollah in 2006. I don't know how many more
"victories" like this Israel can stand. I call on all Israeli's to boycott
the election next month since all our leaders are the same, Cowards, Scum
and Traitors to the Jewish people and Israel. Am Israel Chai
and
Democracy verses the status of a Jewish State. I have
no problem with Arabs being in the Knesset since our founding fathers
allowed Arabs living inside the borders of Israel to be citizens, and we
must stand with that decision. But with citizenship in Israel there must
come restrictions since we are a nation that has been at war since before we
were a nation. I don't care if you are a Jew or an Arab if you call for the
destruction of the State of Israel, you should not be allowed in the
Knesset. Remember I called this when the Knesset banned these two parties,
both of which call for the destruction of Israel, that the High Court would
over turn the will of the Knesset.
In the past it was unthinkable that we could see an
IDF coup against Israel's elected government.
It is not "unthinkable" anymore.
The secular elites in Israel are forcing the people of
Israel who bear it's arms to make a choice between being a Multicultural
Democracy and dying by inches or being a Jewish state and surviving as a
distinct people.
They will regret forcing that choice to be made.
= = = = =
http://www.jewishpress.com/pageroute.do/36895/The_Threat_Of_A_Jewi.html
The Threat Of A Jewish Army More Articles By
Caroline B. Glick <http://www.jewishpress.com/pageroute.do/36895/author>
Caroline B. Glick Posted Oct 29 2008 The Threat Of A Jewish Army ,
Caroline B. Glick<http://www.jewishpress.com/UploadedImages/StdImage/450tzahal-logo.jpg>
Over the past two weeks, the Israeli media have renewed their witch hunt
against religious Zionists in the IDF. These assaults have become seasonal
affairs. Usually there is a proximate cause, such as anticipation of a
deal with the Palestinians, to spur their attacks. But sometimes the
assaults on religious soldiers come on more like a twitch, or a flexing of
muscles.<snip>
Beware the fury of the Legions.
I have insufficient information or knowledge to
have any opinion here; except that warriors are motivated to do their jobs
and defend their nation.
All countries with standing armies exist at the
sufferance of their junior officers. Usually the junior officers don't know
that. Sometimes they learn.
Foxes always try to rule the lions. Sometimes the
lions object.
==========
Ardia on GateHouse v. NYT Co.:
What’s at stake in the linking case » Nieman Journalism Lab » Pushing to the
Future of Journalism
http://www.niemanlab.org/2009/01/
ardia-on-gatehouse-v-nyt-co-whats-at
-stake-in-the-linking-case/
Dear Jerry:
The above link to to a site with a very good analysis
about a web site linking case that has flown below the radar for the tech
community. It's also a good example of the why the Federal Courts hate
copyright cases and try to get rid of them. Full disclosure. I own stock in
Gatehouse Media. My own take is that Gatehouse HAD to sue New York Times or
be crushed. The obvious solution is mandatory licensing and micropayments.
That would level the playing field.
Regards,
Francis Hamit
============
"This is the first time we have seen a volcano beneath
the ice sheet punch a hole through the ice sheet."
<http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/41171/117/>
--- Roland Dobbins
Possible natural explanation found for West Antarctica's warming
=============w
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