Panspermia, potholes in the road to war, Snowden, SDI, and other matters

Mail 787 Thursday, August 29, 2013

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H. Beam Piper

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/165184-life-on-earth-originally-came-from-mars-new-study-suggests

Chris Barker

Omnilingual

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"The evidence seems to be building that we are actually all Martians; that life started on Mars and came to Earth on a rock."

<http://news.sky.com/story/1134431/life-on-earth-started-on-mars-say-scientists>

Roland Dobbins

Not quite what Piper envisioned, but still…

Actually I have long accepted the panspermia hypothesis in most of my science fiction stories.

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Constitutional question re Nidal Hasan

Dr. Pournelle,

In reading the reports of the death sentence recommended by the jury, I learned something interesting: military death sentences require confirmation by the President.

The constitutional question this fact raises is this: In the event that President Barack Obama fails to confirm the death sentence for the Fort Hood workplace violence incident, would the prohibition on double jeopardy prevent Hasan from being brought up on treason charges when Obama’s term is over?

—Joel Salomon

“[N]or shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb “ says the Fifth Amendment, which means no. For that matter, the President could but certainly will not pardon Hasan. What I do wish is that he would rule that this as an act of war against the US and the soldiers wounded deserve Purple Hearts and all the benefits accruing to those injured or killed in combat.

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HASAN to death!

Finally, we see a sensible outcome:

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A military jury on Wednesday sentenced Maj. Nidal Hasan to death for the 2009 shooting rampage at Fort Hood, handing the Army psychiatrist the ultimate punishment after a trial in which he seemed to be courting martyrdom by making almost no effort to defend himself.

The rare military death sentence came nearly four years after the attack that stunned even an Army hardened by more than a decade of constant war. Hasan walked into a medical building where soldiers were getting medical checkups, shouted "Allahu Akbar" _ Arabic for "God is great!" _ and opened fire with a laser-sighted handgun. Thirteen people were killed.

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http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/08/28/Soldier-sentenced-to-death-for-Fort-Hood-shooting

This is the first time I’ve known of a military death sentence in my lifetime.  I wanted to check to make sure; what I found was on April 13, 1961, U.S. Army Private John A. Bennett was hanged after being convicted of rape and attempted murder — deathpenaltyinfo.org.

With the context of the previous paragraph in mind, Major Hasan’s execution seems fitting albeit severely delayed. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I’d like to see Hasan dance Danny Deever, but it won’t happen. Wall him in a secure place with a ham sandwich, water with a pork chop in it, and a live grenade, and come back in six months… But I suppose that would be cruel and most certainly would be unusual.

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Gas Attack – Whodunnit

This from RTV explains why the Russians don’t believe it.

http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-prepared-advance-901/

They say that though the Syrian government officially did it on August 21st, 3 videos of the attack were posted by the rebels on August 20th.

I assume they are right about this since the dates could be easily checked. In which case I can see no alternative to rebel fraud.

So why do our media keep silent on this aspect?

Neil Craig

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Two Questions on Syria

I have thoughts and two questions:

Would it be possible?  Who would be capable of doing such a thing?

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Last Wednesday, in the hours after a horrific chemical attack east of Damascus, an official at the Syrian Ministry of Defense exchanged panicked phone calls with a leader of a chemical weapons unit, demanding answers for a nerve agent strike that killed more than 1,000 people. Those conversations were overheard by U.S. intelligence services, The Cable has learned. And that is the major reason why American officials now say they’re certain that the attacks were the work of the Bashar al-Assad regime — and why the U.S. military is likely to attack that regime in a matter of days.

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http://tinyurl.com/q9otn9g

We have SIGINT intercepts proving a chemical attack?  At best, someone has a confession with details concerning use of chemical weapons. Does this prove an attack?  How can we verify those SIGINT intercepts? 

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"Gentlemen! We have called you together to inform you that we are going to overthrow the United States government." So begins a statement being delivered by Gen. Carl W. Steiner, former Commander-in-chief, U.S. Special Operations Command.

At least the voice sounds amazingly like him.

But it is not Steiner. It is the result of voice "morphing" technology developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.

By taking just a 10-minute digital recording of Steiner’s voice, scientist George Papcun is able, in near real time, to clone speech patterns and develop an accurate facsimile. Steiner was so impressed, he asked for a copy of the tape.

Steiner was hardly the first or last victim to be spoofed by Papcun’s team members. To refine their method, they took various high quality recordings of generals and experimented with creating fake statements. One of the most memorable is Colin Powell stating "I am being treated well by my captors."

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http://tinyurl.com/7xxy

Consider Syria:  Would it be possible?  Who would be capable of doing such a thing?

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

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Nerve Agents

Jerry,

I looked at some of the victim tapes and they sure were twitching in a familiar way. Admittedly, my personal experience is with demo goats. A bit of neurotoxin in the eye; twitch,twitch; a syrette of atropine in the haunch; artificial respiration by the modified chest pressure/hoof pull method. About five minutes later the star staggers off the stage back to the pen. Survive three shows and you are off to Pelham Range to live a feral life.

Folks around Anniston might be able to tell us how the herd is doing these days.

Since the MSF doctors did not bring anybody back from the brink and there is plenty of atropine available in the area, it looks like somebody came up with old(probably) Russian rockets loaded with GD. Atropine won’t help with that.

As to whodunit, now there is plenty of room for speculation. May not even have been any of the serious participants.

Val Augstkalns

 

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Dr. Pournelle,

Scrolling through currant view I saw several reiterations, by you, that no wmd was found. Well perhaps yellowcake isn’t a weapon as such, but what else would it be used for? here is your link: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-202_162-4235028.html

and then there is this: http://news.yahoo.com/uk-experts-help-iraq-destroy-chemical-residues-44204378.html

I also recall a lot of speculation during the (2nd) war that perhaps it was moved to Lebanon.

Martin Lee Rose

Colorado

Throughout history it has been the inaction of those who could have acted, the indifference of those who should have known better, the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most, that has made it possible for evil to triumph. -Haile Selassie I

 

I think I do not entirely understand. Yellow Cake is useful only if you have lots of centrifuges and a very complex chemical industrial lab.

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I personally met soldiers from the 4th Infantry Division that not only stumbled upon bunkers of 55 gallon drums full of it, they had to go through the complete decontamination procedures

——————-

I am willing to bet, the WMD was seriously deteriorated to the point where it was hardly useful, but the USM is careful on such matters, so decontaminates in an abundance of caution.

The stuff the Poles found was decayed a lot.

I am assuming the “stuff” referred to was a war gas? We know Saddam had plenty at one time, but he does seem to have played a complex game after. He almost certainly had no “weapons” in the sense of usable and deployable weaponized war gas dispensers. He we found even one of those Bush would personally have gone on TV to show it. And no wonder.

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Syria –

Hi Jerry,

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08/28/israeli-intelligence-first-confirmed-assad-regime-behind-alleged-chemical/

I would not consider that a reliable source. Israel has strong self-interest in American involvement. I’m not saying that there is deliberate deception (though that’s certainly a possibility), but I’d argue that their desire for intervention may very well cause questionable intelligence to be given more creed than it deserves. I’ll say the same thing about Assad as I said about Saddam. They both want to be the big fish in a small pond, and they’re not likely to go teasing a shark. Saddam was never an existential threat to America, and Syria certainly isn’t. If we want to solve the tin-pot dictator problem, a good and cheap way to do it is to go back to the 1970’s….let them retire in luxury to the riveria. When the alternative is prison, war crimes trial, and death, of course they will fight to the end.

The war powers in the Constitution, and in the war powers act, only authorize the president to respond to an actual or imminent attack on us. That’s why Bush had to get congressional approval to do anything. Syria clearly isn’t an immediate threat and ‘doing something we don’t like’ isn’t an enumerated authorization for military action. Not that Obama cares one whit about separation of powers, limits on executive authority, or the constitution.

But I agree, McCain has lost the last shreds of his credibility on this one. I’m sure you remember the old tale of the tar baby – getting stuck to a petroleum product by our own bad choices made in a fit of righteous anger, seems an apt analogy. Brer Rabbit got free, but somehow we keep going back and getting stuck over and over again.

Cheers,

Doug=

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Kandi Technolgies Corp. (KNDI): Kandi Technologies: Exceptional Strategy For China From An Urban Planning View – Seeking Alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1658262-kandi-technologies-exceptional-strategy-for-china-from-an-urban-planning-view?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0

Dear Jerry:

The article linked above gives some extraordinary insights into the future. It’s comprehensive and well researched.

Regards,

Francis Hamit

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MLK III, claim, the color of your skin has become a license to murder.

Jerry:

Here is an interesting blog article addressing a subject that few people want to talk about.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2013/08/24/is-this-what-ryan-julison-intended-all-along/

In his speech in Washington, MLK III complained that the color of their skin has become a license to murder. He is partially right. Except having Black skin has become a license to commit murder, not be murdered.

The specter of lynchings is particularly interesting.

A racist conspiracy is by definition a conspiracy. A conspiracy by definition involves more than one perpetrator.

Here are some pertinent statistics from the FBI-SHR database. Here is a link to an online app to access the database.

http://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezashr/asp/off_display.asp

In the last three decades, over 15,000 Whites have been murdered by groups of Blacks.

Only some 3,600 Blacks have been murdered by groups of Whites during that same time period.

Given the fact that Blacks account for only one-eighth of the population, if the probability that Blacks would enter into a conspiracy to commit an interracial murder was no greater than Whites, the ratio of such group killings would be eight Blacks killed for every White killed. The fact that it is Six Whites Killed for every Black killed reveals that Blacks are almost fifty times as likely to enter into a conspiracy to commit interracial murder as Whites.

While the total number of interracial murders by groups of Blacks has decreased slightly in recent years, the percentage of such murders relative to the total number of murders has increased dramatically.

Exactly who are the racists?

James Crawford

SUBJ: Ben Stein nails it

"The Oklahoma Story"

http://spectator.org/archives/2013/08/21/the-oklahoma-story

A money quote: ". . . the real race problem in this country is not racism against blacks, but an astounding epidemic of violence among blacks, especially black youth? Will the media superstars start talking about the sickening worship of violence in the rap culture? Will anyone ever tell the truth again? Or is the fear of even a hint of an accusation of racism going to make us keep our blinders on?"

It is ironic that those who shout "racism" at every turn are in fact enabling the self-destruction of the very group they claim to defend.

Cordially,

John

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Judge Jeanie lights off a nuke criticizing the Obama regime

Judge Jeanine: US gov’t full of nothing but hot air?

http://video.foxnews.com/v/2627341572001/judge-jeanine-us-govt-full-of-nothing-but-hot-air/

Bravo! Now, when can we impeach the so and so at whose desk the buck stops?

{^_^}

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Iron Law

Dr. Pournelle;

I came across this and thought you might appreciate it. I and a few others have been embroiled in a struggle with local government in the Gulf Islands North of the border. They periodically attempt to enslave the local peasantry with draconian and far-reaching bylaws intended to strip us of our rights in a way that the Federal Government wouldn’t (yet) dare. At any rate, hope this missive finds you well. Keep fighting the good fight.

–Eric Gilmer, Gabriola Island, British Columbia.

In the year 2013, the Lord came unto Noah, Who was now living in America and said: "Once again, the earth has become wicked and over-populated, and I see the end of all flesh before me."

"Build another Ark and save 2 of every living thing along with a few good humans."

He gave Noah the blueprints, saying: "You have 6 months to build the Ark before I will start the unending rain for 40 days and 40 nights."

Six months later, the Lord looked down and saw Noah weeping in his yard – but no Ark."Noah!," He roared, "I’m about to start the rain! Where is the Ark?"

"Forgive me, Lord," begged Noah, "but things have changed."

"I needed a Building Permit."

"I’ve been arguing with the Boat Inspector about the need for a sprinkler system."

"My homeowners association claim that I’ve violated the Neighborhood by-laws by building the Ark in my back yard and exceeding the height limitations. We had to go to the local Planning Committee for a decision."

"Then the City Council and the Electricity Company demanded a shed load of money for the future costs of moving power lines and other overhead obstructions, to clear the passage for the Ark’s move to the sea. I told them that the sea would be coming to us, but they would hear none of it."

"Getting the wood was another problem. There’s a ban on cutting local trees in order to save the Greater Spotted Barn Owl."

"I tried to convince the environmentalists that I needed the wood to save the owls – but no go!"

"When I started gathering the animals, PETA took me to court. They insisted that I was confining wild animals against their will. They argued the accommodations were too restrictive and it was cruel and inhumane to put so many animals in a confined space."

"Then the Environmental Protection Agency ruled that I couldn’t build the Ark until they’d conducted an environmental impact study on Your proposed flood."

"I’m still trying to resolve a complaint with the Human Rights Commission on how many minorities I’m supposed to hire for my building crew."

"The Immigration Dept. Is checking the visa status of most of the people who want to work."

"The labor unions say I can’t use my sons. They insist I have to hire only union workers with ark-building experience."

"To make matters worse, the IRS seized all my assets, claiming I’m trying to leave the country illegally with endangered species."

"So, forgive me, Lord, but it would take at least 10 years for me to finish this ark."

"Suddenly the skies cleared, the sun began to shine and a rainbow stretched across the sky."

Noah looked up in wonder and asked, "You mean you’re not going to destroy the world?"

"No," said the Lord. " The Government beat me to it."

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“The emotional and financial burden has been staggering. Never in my wildest dreams did I somehow imagine I was committing a crime.”

<http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/08/16/199590/seeing-threats-feds-target-instructors.html>

Roland Dobbins

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Re: Making Sense from Snowden

Jerry,

See the linked article Making Sense from Snowden (I found it linked on Bruce Schneier’s blog). It’s a good analysis of what we’ve seen revealed so far.

http://www.computer.org/cms/Computer.org/ComputingNow/pdfs/MakingSenseFromSnowden-IEEESecurityAndPrivacy.pdf

Regards,

George

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Noonan’s column for Friday "A Nation of Sullen Paranoids" at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579029170678905440.html

You may need to go via Google news and search "Noonan paranoids" to get past the firewall.

"If you assume all the information that can and will be gleaned will be confined to NSA and national security purposes, you are not sufficiently imaginative or informed. If you believe the information will never be used wrongly or recklessly, you are touchingly innocent."

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SDI, Pseudo Science?

Jerry,

You commented on the missive asserting the cliché argument that SDI could not be successful because it couldn’t be 100% effective. While your response about making missile silos more survivable enhancing deterrence invalid, I think you ignore the potential benefits of even a marginally effective interceptor system.

IIRC, the cliché was that even if SDI was 99% effective, the country would be destroyed by the 1% of the warheads that reached their targets.

The first flaw is presuming that the 100 warheads that penetrated the defenses would destroy 100 separate targets. This argument ignores the fact that the attacker can not predict in advance which warheads will be intercepted. All he can do is aim 100 warheads each at 100 separate targets. The number of targets surviving given a 99% effective intercept system will then be (.99)^100 = 36%

The second flaw is presuming that an attacker needs to destroy only 100 targets to destroy the US. The last time I checked, far less than half of the US population lived in the largest 100 cities. More importantly, modern missile warheads are not the multimegaton, city busting nukes of the 1960s. Almost all deployed nukes are less than one megaton. If you crunch the numbers for the probable lethal area of modern weapons and compare this to the area of US cities, you find that an attacker would need to hit over 500 separate target areas to kill the inhabitants of the 100 largest US cities.

The third flaw is the presumption that you can’t reduce the fatalities inflicted by warheads that aren’t intercepted. The above calculation was predicated on the "lethal area" demonstrated by the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs as well as nuclear test data with the two-thirds scaling law applied for increased weapons yield. However; Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined with test data reveals that the lethality of nuclear weapons is greatly dependent on the types of structures (or lack of structure) that people are in. The lethal area of a nuke against people in steel reinforced masonry structures is dramatically smaller than for people standing out in the open. Relatively simple, low cost bomb shelters based on underground fuel storage tanks developed by Professor Arthur Robinson can reduce the lethal area of a nuke by about 95%. Given such shelters, an attacker would need to deliver 10,000 nukes to 10,000 different target areas to kill the people in the 100 largest US cities. Bomb shelters can transform overkill into severe under kill.

Finally; the argument ignores the synergistic effect that shelters would have on missile interceptors. To protect unsheltered populations, the missile interceptor system needs to intercept at very high altitude. Given shelters that can protect people from 50 psi overpressure, the minimum intercept altitude can be as low as 2,000 feet. Simpler, lower cost antimissile systems included the Goal Keeper 30 mm Gatling gun can be employed for shorter ranged intercept. Suddenly; that seemingly impossible goal of a near perfect interceptor system becomes extremely plausible.

James Crawford=

Actually General Graham, Dr. Possony, Dr. Kane, and I made those arguments back in the 1970’s in various documents.

The Interstate Highway Act was justified in part by the provision that every major freeway intersection would house a large and well stocked fallout shelter, and at least one such shelter was built as part of a demonstration in the University District in Seattle. I saw it. Eisenhower was much in favor of it.

The USSR and much of the anti-anti-communist establishment in the US academic scene denounced this as an act of aggression against the Soviet Union. If this seems hard to believe, you can still find the papers by the Union of Concerned Scientists among others. Clearly since the Soviet Union would never attack the US, and US actions that would mitigate the destruction and death in the US was in preparation for an American first strike.

McNamara got rid of the civil defense aspects of the highway. Meanwhile the USSR required every Soviet citizen to take about 40 hours of civil defense instruction; but since this was in the peace loving USSR it was not an act of preparation for war with the US.

There are those who believe this yet.

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Jeffrey Singer: The Man Who Was Treated for $17,000 Less

Great spot Jerry, but the problem of ‘associations’ vs. ‘government’ come down to the last sentence in your comment – "And the associations were better able to deal with the problems of ‘entitlement’, justice, fraud, and the whole question of the deserving and undeserving poor." Who decides which poor are deserving and which are undeserving? In my view certainly government is too far removed, but ‘associations’ may too have biases which reward those with allegiance to local power authority, while ignoring the plight of those with a different point of view. I don’t see an easy solution at present.

Pete Russell

Perfect is always the enemy of better.

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Jerry,

I thought that you would recognize and appreciate the reference to "blood and treasure."

Bush at least was proceeding in the hope that he could bring a secular democracy to Iraq and was willing to spend blood and treasure to nurture that hope. Obama has every expectation and hope that Islam-fascists will prevail.

James Crawford

Begin forwarded message:

From: Sarah Palin Information Blog <comment-reply@wordpress.com>

Date: August 29, 2013 7:15:40 PM PDT

To: <mailto:starbirdfarms@hughes.net> starbirdfarms@hughes.net

Subject: [New post] Gov. Palin asks Obama who he’s rooting for Syria conflict

Reply-To: "Sarah Palin Information Blog" <comment+cy3_ld57f2h833hchvo5iqy@comment.wordpress.com>

Dr. Fay posted: "Posted on Governor Palin’s Facebook page this evening: Sarah Palin ———————- Mr. President, please give America justification before you spend blood and treasure to intervene. Start with: who are you rooting for in this? ———"

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