Coming Ice Age

View 802 Thursday, December 12, 2013

 

 

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

 

What we have now is all we will ever have.

Conservationist motto

 

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Begin with this reminder of climate science consensus:

Leonard Nimoy on The Coming Ice Age: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_861us8D9M

Note that at the time as a science fact columnist I was pretty well convinced of this. I even took the picture of Stephen Schneider and Margaret Meade that they used on the back cover of their book. It looked like the future was desertification and cold, cold, cold.

For more on that

1974 : NCAR Called Global Cooling The “New Norm” And Blamed Climate Disasters On It.

<http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/12/12/1974-ncar-called-global-cooling-the-new-norm-and-blamed-climate-disasters-on-it/>

Roland Dobbins

Climate Change and its Effect on  World Food

by Walter Orr Roberts  Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the world’s peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie ahead for most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new “little ice age”

There are strong signs that these recent climate disasters were not random deviations from the usual weather, but instead signals of the emergence of a new normal for world climates.

www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull165/16505796265.pdf

It’s lunch time. Back later. But perhaps that will amuse you.

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And if you need something else to worry about

‘Thus ends roughly 90 years of post-Ottoman secularity.’

<http://takimag.com/article/turkeys_marginal_theocracy_guy_somerset/print>

Roland Dobbins

The Turkish experiment in timocracy seems to be ending in an Islamic State.

 

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As I was about to go downstairs for lunch, I got a call from Bob Neely, a long time neighbor who is also a base in the choir my wife sings in. He used to live down the street from us but has moved up by Gene Autry’s place up the hill.  His daughter Stephanie married Max Gladstone, whose Three Parts Dead is an imaginative new approach to heroic fantasy, and has done well enough that Tor has brought out a second book in the series, Two Serpents Rise. Max is in town for a day or so and wanted to bring over a copy of his new book.  As it happens Peter has just finished making the Great Hall inhabitable again, so these were my first guests in the newly rehabilitated rooms here in Chaos Manor.  Alas I couldn’t offer them tea because my electric water pitcher doesn’t seem to be working, but we have officially had entertainment in the room that has emerged from archeological layers of old computer books, computer parts, newspapers, old computers, tchotchkes from recent and ancient conventions, and useful stuff that was put down only to be lost in the swim.  Which means that when I get a new hot water pitcher I can have tea parties up here again, and I will do so.

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Thanks to those who pointed me to this:  http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2013/12/10/mit-biosuit-system-dava-newman/  Apparently MIT is experimenting with the skintight space suit that appears in many of my early space exploration novels, and apparently some think they have a new invention.  I’m pleased that the concept of the space activity suit is back in the wind and research is being done on it, because I have long been convinced that it’s the right way to go, and I’ll gladly forgive them for thinking they invented it, but I do hope they have not really forgotten the work that Litton industries and Webb Associates of Yellow Springs Ohio have already done.  I can refer them to the 1971 document http://chapters.marssociety.org/winnipeg/sas/DevelopmentOfASpaceActivitySuit.pdf and there are many others, including a couple things I wrote a long time before that.   The Space Activity Suit makes use of the fact that the human skin can be a perfectly good pressure container provided that it is reinforced. I know of experiments in the 1950’s using Spandex, and I was once in a chamber at Litton which was depressurized to 110,000 feet – as near space vacuum as makes no never mind – in one of them. It didn’t fit me perfectly and fit is very important in an SAS. Any void areas between you and the suit need to be filled with partly inflated sealed balloons which can expand to provide the padding.

  Of course the suit needs a neck seal and helmet to deliver breathing air; the lung pressure takes care of pressurizing your system. It’s surprising how much work you can get done in a SAS because you are not fighting pressure changes within the suit when you move.  The concept hadn’t been developed enough in the 50’s to warrant incorporating it into the Dynasoar Boeing was proposing, but it was promising and Webb at Yellow Springs continued the development work. I have always thought that would be the final solution to the space suit program.

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Bunny Inspectors

http://www.salon.com/2013/12/12/brace_yourself_for_the_srirachapocalypse/?source=newsletter

Because of the smell? Have you ever been in Salinas during the garlic harvest? Or, downwind of a sugar plant in Louisiana during grinding? Sheesh.

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

We are doomed. Doomed I say.  No Sriracha?

But the Bunny Inspectors are safe, in the new consensus budget which is going to eliminate needless government spending.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Mostly evolution theory

Mail 802 Tuesday, December 10, 2013

We haven’t had the plague of locusts yet, but there have been a number of distractions here. I hope most have ended, and we can catch up a bit on mail. Today I will try to reduce the pile of unpublished comments on the evolution discussion.  I’ll try to continue this tomorrow.

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Do we understand evolution?

Note that this is not a discussion of whether or not evolution takes place. That seems quite certain. The question is whether we understand the mechanisms.

A lot of this discussion came about from comment on Fred’s observations, particularly

http://fredoneverything.net/BotFly.shtml

And http://fredoneverything.net/LastDarwin.shtml

Fred concludes that if you think you understand this complex subject you must have been smoking Drano. He does not assert that he understands it. I come from a somewhat different tradition: I was brought up to believe in evolution but I was basically taught by wolves and my own reading habits until I encountered the Christian Brothers in high school. I had always been taught to “believe in evolution” and that was not contradicted by the Brothers who pointed out that church doctrine accommodated the notion of creation through primitive forms. But since that time the biology world has become much more complex, and the theories that account for evolution have become more so; and I find myself in agreement with Fred, you have to be smoking Drano to believe the current theories. Which isn’t a “disproof” of evolution because some kind of evolution has in fact taken place; but whether it was all be blind chance is another story. Sir Fred Hoyle was also an influence on my thinking although is notion of the Designer would not be acceptable to those who reject Darwin on religious grounds.

Mostly I don’t smoke Drano.

“About thirty years ago I wrote an essay on evolution and origins using the analogy of a watch: you can take all the components of a watch, but them in a bag, and shake them forever and they probability that they will fall into place is still remains vanishingly small with relation to the age of the universe. You can make the probability a bit larger by adding multiple copies of some of the components, but a bit larger still leaves you a vanishing probability. If you find a watch in the woods, that’s pretty overwhelming evidence for the existence of a watchmaker. Now what do you look for if you find a watchmaker?”

———————

But suppose there are rules that cause the different components to fall together in a particular pattern under the right conditions? The different components of the watch are not amino acids which bond together by themselves is placed in proximity. Magnetize the watch components and make their shape such that they fit together properly in some cases and they might form a ‘peptide watch’. What it takes to make these form a DNA strand isn’t known, thus the probability if this happening can’t be calculated. We know there is a factor of randomness to this, but what is unknown is how much is chaotic and how much is statistical.

You mix hydrogen and Chlorine together, you know what happens. Both elements do not just mix around and form random compounds, there is a strong statistical probability Hydrogen Chloride forms when light is added.

With organic chemistry the formation of compounds is less statistically certain, side reactions happen. Sometimes compounds form that catalyze other reactions. I suggest the beginnings of life are much the same.

This controversy can be easily resolved. All we need to do is define the conditions where life has formed, set that up and wait a few billion years. Stick around and when it completes I will let you know….

The problem here is that your rules have to apply all the time. If you know where you are trying to go, then it’s not so hard to get to the right place even with a random walk; it’s when you have no idea where you are going yet you get somewhere interesting that things need explanations. It is just not reasonable to suppose that a cloud of hydrogen gas will some day dance Swan Lake and build San Francisco.

Evolution

Here is a link to a pretty good on-line UW lecture dealing with some recent findings in what I guess you could call mathematical genetics:

Making Genetic Networks Operate Robustly: Unintelligent Non-design Suffices, by Professor Garrett Odell

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsbKzFdW2bM

I understand the assertion. I do not see the proof.

Jerry

Me, I’m not so sure that mutations really are random, given the cellular mechanisms not only for redundancy and self-repair, but also for accommodating any alteration by making other alterations in response. The laws of chemistry might matter more than the struggle for existence.

Shapiro: New findings about the genetic conservation of protein structure and function across very broad taxonomic boundaries, the mosaic structure of genomes and genetic loci, and the molecular mechanisms of genetic change all point to a view of evolution as involving the rearrangement of basic genetic motifs. A more detailed examination of how living cells restructure their genomes reveals a wide variety of sophisticated biochemical systems responsive to elaborate regulatory networks. In some cases, we know that cells are able to accomplish extensive genome reorganization within one or a few cell generations. The emergence of bacterial antibiotic resistance is a contemporary example of evolutionary change; molecular analysis of this phenomenon has shown that it occurs by the addition and rearrangement of resistance determinants and genetic mobility systems rather than by gradual modification of pre-existing cellular genomes.

http://shapiro.bsd.uchicago.edu/Shapiro.1992.Gentica.NatGenEngInEvo.pdf

There’s an attachment of a slide presentation by Shapiro that touches some of these points. Feel free to slide over the more technical items, as I did.

Mike

A link to Shapiro that isn’t quite so complex is http://shapiro.bsd.uchicago.edu/Shapiro.2013.Rethinking_the_%28Im%29Possible_in_Evolution.html

Evolution

I have this vague uneasy thought regarding evolution.

That where we actually exist is the result of someone’s science fair project. Like an ant farm. Or an aquarium. You know, the kind where various objects are added to make it more interesting. One that has been long forgotten and banished to an attic storage room.

I believe I have developed this idea from a short story I read a half century ago.

Sci-Fi writers can be so disturbing sometimes.

tonyb

Asimov wrote one such story. Of course that means you have found a watchmaker: but what brought the watchmaker about?

Richard Dawkins on the evolution of the eye

Hi Jerry,

Mr. Dawkins, who is a renowned evolutionary biologist and a member of the Royal Society as well as the most famous apologist for atheism, has a detailed explanation for how the eye may have evolved here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nwew5gHoh3E

I find it plausible.

Thanks for your books and all your columns, I’ve enjoyed them all.

Regards,

Julian Treadwell

He certainly does find it plausible. I fear I do not. Every step must lead to something fit enough to survive until the next step and some of those steps must make the new creature more fit.. I do not see how they do. If you know what you want, it’s fairly easy to describe a path that gets you there.

Evolution: "of Man" vs. "of Microbes"?

I wonder whether the Biology Teachers have their priorities right?

Is it not at least arguably more important, that kids learn about the evolution of antibiotic-resistant microbes than that they learn about the evolution of humans from apes?

The development of antibiotic resistance is easy to demonstrate in the laboratory and has potentially catastrophic implications for the health of billions of people, and not just in Third World hell-holes. You want a horror story that *we’re*all*living*right*now*? Try _The Forgotten

Plague: How the Battle Against Tuberculosis Was Won – And Lost_.

It affects individual liberty: Must we return to the days of involuntary detention in quarantine of infected people? Must we withhold treatment from patients who refuse to, or are unable to, complete their courses of antibiotic treatment — thereby turning themselves into breeding-grounds for resistant strains? Or are we Doomed, by our devotion to individual liberty, to slide on down the slippery slope to the End of the Age of Antibiotics and the Dawn of the Second Age of Sanatoria?

It affects property rights: Should we, by Law, restrict the dispensing of new antibiotics, developed at tremendous cost, to preserve their effectiveness? What would that do to manufacturers’ willingness to invest in developing such drugs?

Am I just blind and deaf, that I never see or hear this discussed?

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Aren’t we already headed there? I agree that practical evolution seems not well understood, although animal husbandry has understood for a thousand generations. Somehow it isn’t happening now.

Two Quick Points On Evolution

Why do you continue to use the straw man of "Darwinian" evolution? Do you also talk about astronomy as Ptolemaic or physics as Copernican? Also, why do you insist that evolution must lead to an improvement? What about cave dwelling species that have evolved to not have eyes (or functional eyes). Is this an improvement, or simply an adaption to environment?

I hate to say it, Jerry, since I love your writing, but your understanding of evolution is juvenile at best. And your continued use of logical fallacy betrays your inability to overcome simple cognitive dissonance.

Brian Walsh

I would appreciate enlightenment. I tend to concentrate on Darwinian evolution because that is what I taught in the schools. If there is a high priesthood with better understanding some of us await being informed. The new mechanism must account for the observed complexities.

Good Enough

Reproduction of the Good Enough

I may have been thinking of your oft-used Good Enough when I was discussing evolution with someone several years ago.

What occurred to me was that "Survival of the Fittest" was an unfortunate phrase to have captured peoples’ fancy. Instead, I have started using "Reproduction of the Good Enough." The idea that multiple variations can exist within a population until some external change happens with culls part of the population. To me, that explains much of what appears confusing at first glance.

A canonical modern example is DDT resistance. Where the resistance varied across a population, but it really didn’t matter. Then, DDT was introduced and it became paramount.

I think that metaphorically similar variations in light sensitive cells probably happened many times within populations. Within the extent environment, the differences were essentially "ornamental." Trivial. Then, some new predator showed up. Or, some new competitor for a resource. Or, a volcano erupted and the dust blocked much of the sunlight for several generations. Or, part of the population was isolated, which now produced different pressures on the different groups. And then, the differences in light cell patches allowed a portion of the population to survive and reproduce while some or most of the rest reproduced much less, or not at all. Ebbs and flows. Feast is followed by famine. Tranquility by adversity. Rinse and repeat.

That’s how species can end up with an eyeball, even though that was never a goal. Different light sensing mechanisms were tried within a forgiving environment. All were Good Enough to reproduce. Until some of them were no longer Good Enough. A subset passes on their then-winning trait.

That also explains how the progression of a species can start from one "peak" to travel through a "valley" to get to another "peak." Within the environment that existed when the trait variation sprang up, it just didn’t matter. Then things changed. The members of the population still living within the valley, and maybe most or all of the individuals living with the older genetic peak trait, are culled. Only those at the new peak can continue to reproduce.

And what’s left can look like it could have been goal driven. Even though it wasn’t.

Drake Christensen

I have always found that the most convincing of the arguments: they need not lead to fittest, but must at least be good enough for survival so that mutated individuals will reproduce and carry the next step along until the next mutation, which also must be good enough – but eventually a step must lead to “more fit”. I find the leap of faith less arduous than that of the “every step must be more fit”, but as the complexities of life continue to be discovered I do not find it sufficient.

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Evolution discussion continues:

Entropy and Life

Jerry,

One of your correspondents posited that life should not be because of entropy. If life represents increasing complexity and entropy tears down complexity, how can life spontaneously come into existence? The answer is quite simple — one can not measure the entropy of a system without considering the entire system. Take a freezer for a simple example. If one looks only inside the freezer and watches the temperature drop and sees the water freeze, one would start wondering how such an anti-entropic activity could take place. After all, everything in the freezer is becoming more organized as its temperature drops. The key is realizing that an enormous amount of work is being done on the content of the freezer to generate that order. Measure the heat output of the entire freezer and one would find that more heat was created by the freezer than was removed from the inside of the unit. Overall, entropy was increased dramatically, even though locally entropy was reversed.

Living creatures consume enormous amounts of energy from the environment, creating far more disorder in the system as a whole than the order it produces. In fact, life is one of the best and most efficient entropy generating systems in existence. Given enough of a usable entropy gradient (environments with low entropy) life can expand until that gradient is eliminated, using up the gradient and an ever faster rate. Then everything dies and the created order decays into chaos and entropy still increases.

Life on Earth is possible because the energy of the sun is very low entropy compared to the space around it. This provides a very high entropic gradient for life to utilize. There will come a point in the future where nowhere in the universe will have enough of an entropic gradient for life to use. At that time, life in the universe, the entire universe, will no longer be possible.

Kevin L Keegan

Well of course entropy decreases in local systems. The question is how those local systems are created.

Biodiversity

Jerry,

Evolution theory readily explains biodiversity. Living organisms survive best by eating things that other living organisms don’t eat. So the earliest drive in competition for resources would have been toward unused resources. Beat the competition by not competing. We can see it now all across the ecosystems of the world. Hunting at night reduces competition from other predators and allows tapping of nocturnal foragers who evolved that habit because of daylight predation. The evolution of flight happened over and over again (insects, reptiles, mammals) because it allows escape from predation and access to resources not available to walking, crawling, burrowing, or swimming organisms. Tolerance of otherwise toxic plants, animals, and insects grants access to a resource no other organism can use. The list goes on and on.

It is too easy to think about evolution strictly as a head-to-head competition. This indeed does happen a lot and evolution theory has largely been taught on that basis. But evolution is not really about competition, but more about a drive towards accessible resources. Plants do it by happenstance — a lucky quirk in a gene complex allows progeny to survive in soil the parental stock found unsuitable. Animals do it by experimentation — I’m hungry and I can’t get what I normally eat; can I eat this? Those that can, survive and reproduce; those that can’t perish. It is, for most organisms, not a conscious choice, just desperation.

It is also important to remember that evolution is a process without direction. The environment effectively tests mutant genes for their effectiveness at conferring survival. Those that confer survival become more prevalent in a population. Those that don’t tend to become scarce. But there is no drive towards any particular mutation. For example, the brains of the ancestor stock for the modern house cat has a brain that is 30% larger than that of the modern house cat. Wild cats need more brain power to survive, but it is metabolically expensive, reducing the number of off-spring that can be produced. The modern house cat occasionally needs to catch a mouse, but mostly relies on its human companions to bring it food. It needs to buy their affections by being cute and playful — kitten-like — for its entire life, so a large brain is just a wasteful expense. The pressures of surviving with humans favored house cats with less brain and more kitten making capacity. The modern house cat is a ‘simpler’ organism than its predecessor stock.

Kevin L Keegan

But the point is that it produces results that do not look as if they were accomplished without direction. You can get here from there, but some of the steps appear impossible if you did not know where you were going.

Hi Jerry,

I read with interest your posting on "Asking Questions about Darwin" (https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=16304). You used

an example of evolution involving a bag of watch parts and the probability that shaking said bag would result in a fully functional

watch. Or rather, the improbability of such a result without the involvement of an "Intelligent Designer".

I must say, were evolution as complex as you make it out to be, then the most parsimonious answer would be that an intelligent

designer was probably involved. However, your analogy is… incorrect…

While you could use a "bag of stuff" as an analogy to describe evolution, the contents of said bag would have to be a lot different

than watch parts, although a timekeeping device could reasonably be the outcome of this process.

Please allow me to repeat that. We could indeed get a functional watch out of a bag of parts through a stochastic process… But it

requires lots of bags, and a process that sieves the successes of one bag into the next bag.

To bring the analogy in line with what is actually going on in evolution, you would have to start with something simple like the

attached image of a child’s toy. Place that in a bag. Shake it around long enough and some of the shapes will make it through to the

inside of the sphere. Most will not…

This is the "test", as it were, and it is no more complex than that. The steps are small, and the evaluation process is unambiguous.

Nature shakes the bag, the parts change slightly, and we see what survives. Lather, rinse, repeat…

From such humble beginnings, endless levels of complexity can come about as long as it receives energy inputs from the sun.

..Ch:W..

and a process that sieves the successes of one bag into the next bag.

Which is in fact the point I was trying to make. If you know what you are trying to get, then you can select among random steps; but if each of your steps must itself be beneficial to the species, the ‘survival of the fittest’ is not likely to produce anything.

I suspect that it would take a lot of random clouds of gas to become San Francisco or the Ballet Russ de Monte Carlo

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

"If you know what you are trying to get, then you can select among random steps;"

Nature is a harsh mistress and only has one selection criteria – death. That which finds a way to cheat death a little bit better than another, will propagate more than the other.

"but if each of your steps must itself be beneficial to the species, the ‘survival of the fittest’ is not likely to produce anything."

I am not sure what you mean by that. If you ratchet one success over death after another, what do you think will result after billions of years? Mutations never stop, hence innovations against nature’s harsh hand never end. Eventually some sort of form will come of that. It will not look like San Francisco, but it might look a lot like a quadrapedal body plan (for land dwellers), or perhaps a sleek fin and a set of very sharp teeth.

For what it is worth, I had the same skepticism the first time I opened up the back of a TV. Such a bundle of wires and components could hardly make sense to anyone. Then over time I understood that, indeed, no one need understand the whole thing. What makes sense are small systems that are combined to make something more complex.

And so it goes with nature, such as when the mitochondria, existing only as a bacterium in one of nature’s many niches, finds benefit by combining with a primitive cell in another of nature’s niches. Suddenly oxygen metabolism and ATP generation allows new possibilities.

Of course, in saying this, we conveniently ignore the trillions and trillions of useless mutations and failed combinations that were ablated away by nature, much as we do not see the years of effort that Yo-Yo Ma put in prior to a tear inducing rendition of Bach’s Cello Suite No. 1.

And it appears as if you and I are very much in agreement about San Francisco and the Ballet Russ de Monte Carlo. Evolution could never produce those things. They are obviously the work of an intelligent designer.

I appreciate the opportunity to engage with you. Your mind is interesting.

..Ch:W..

With faith all things are possible,

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A Change of Pace:

Don’t watch this until tomorrow:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/28/exploding_whale_video/

Ed

Unsung DEAD WHALE EXPLODER hero, who gave the early internet a purpose, passes away

Jerry

Don’t watch the video until after your Thanksgiving meal.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/05/exploding_whale_man_dies/

Ed

I remember hearing it on the radio as it happened…

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: Trivium and Quadrivium

I find it interesting that you covered the Seven Classical Liberal Arts and Sciences i.e. the Trivium and Quadrivium.  Someone that you may know published this essay under the pseudonym Jester-Inquisitor.  I am certain you and certain of your readers will find this interesting.  Also, I hear a revised and expanded version is in the works…

<.>

The Trivium is — in the correct order — grammar, logic, and rhetoric. As an aside, Freemasonry and the Catholic Church teach this order in an improper sequence. Grammar forms the building blocks of language and allows expression of facts. Logic allows the ability to make relationships among the blocks or facts. Rhetoric allows attempts to inform, persuade, or entertain using grammar and logic for effect. Critical thinking and effective communication are among the many rewards achieved through undertaking study of the trivium; moreover, one proficient in the trivium does not need instruction from others e.g. teacher, professor to learn. One can — through his mental faculties — learn without aid and without an institution.

The Quadrivium is mathematics, geometry, music, and astronomy. Just as language is a human construct, so is the number. We introduce ourselves to the mental construct that we call a number through mathematics. Geometry allows us to perceive the number in space — as further explained in the degree work. Music allows us to get a sense of the number in time. Astronomy is where we apply the number in space-time. The quadrivium was — in old times — taught in college or university. Since then we’ve come to offer other programs. Through the quadrivium one can attain a better understanding of both the universe and one’s place within it.

One way to develop the Quadrivium further is to explain how one understands one’s place in the universe. In Freemasonry, we learn about the Pythagorean Theorem or the 47th Proposition of Euclid – 5, 3, 4. Five represents the five senses or empiricism — the Buddhists recognize six senses, three represents the Trivium, and four represents the Quadrivium. The sixth sense is the mind, which makes sense of the senses; else, we would experience the universe as a series of random "boom, bang, boom".

Reality is an ineffable, interdependent and interdeterminant process that exists in more dimensions than we are able to perceive with our six senses. The bible alludes to this by describing the ineffable name of God, but — really — everything is ineffable as Korzybski pointed out in Science and Sanity and Manhood of Humanity through the discipline of General Semantics. The computer screen that you are reading this post on is an ineffable object; we bind that object to the words, sounds, etc. of "computer screen". When I use those words — in auditory or visual form — they create a semantic reaction in your nervous system and call a sensation and related associations from your linguistic index. In this way, we can communicate and this important.

When we get into the Quadrivium, we further index reality. Reality is a wiggle and we use language and the Quadrivium to create a grid on that wiggle; it works in the same way that latitude and longitude work on a map. Some examples follow: with mathematics we can use numbers; so I can tell you how many cows I want in exchange for how many pigs and we can have a rudimentary economy. Mathematics is important when exchanging monies or currencies. With geometry, we can agree to meet at a certain point in the forest and if we cannot make that agreement we cannot meet. Geometric operations like intersection and resection help immensely with land navigation and are still used today in competent armed forces. Music gives one a sense of timing; it is possible to use music to gauge distances where other forms of measurement are not possible — shaman use this technique to walk from one rock to a certain area. Music is a pattern, essentially, and it is the pattern of the moon that allowed life to occur on Earth in the first place. Without the moon, there would be no rhythm to the seas for the first organisms to manifest. Through astronomy we can predict the movements of heavenly bodies and their affects on our existence here. We can understand seasons, we can understand when objects might strike the Earth causing mass extinctions, and we can better understand how the Earth became what we see today. We can also begin to unlock the secrets of the universe.

</>

http://goo.gl/QniNYH

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

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experience modifies genes

hi Jerry,

This article about passing an aversion to smell onto offspring shows some of the first evidence that evolution is not completely random.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25156510

Jeff Marshall

Jerry

Geneticists have known about Lamarckian inheritance for quite some time, only they don’t call it that. The call it epigenetics.

It appears that various parts of your genome can be methylated. This is the one mechanism I have seen cited. Of course, there may be more.

As for the mice – well, good luck to them. I hope they can avoid the cat.

Ed

Jeff Marshall offered a link to this article

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25156510

suggesting that evolution is not completely random. I remain unconvinced. From the article:

“They showed a section of DNA responsible for sensitivity to the cherry blossom scent was made more active in the mice’s sperm.”

While interesting and important, this does not exonerate Lamarck, and certainly not Lysenko. Please note that no changes have been introduced into the genetic code – no new information and not even an alteration of existing information. This is an example of an environmental factor triggering the expression of an existing gene, an event which should surprise no one. A similar phenomenon was observed in a population of bees a few years ago and greeted with much the same fanfare.

Lamarck’s principle ideas were rejected by the scientific community over a century ago, yet their seductive appeal is so powerful, it seems, that biologists slip into their embrace time and time again. An article appearing in a peer-reviewed journal many years ago described what happened to a population of Darwin’s finches on one of the Galapagos islands when it experienced several years of drought. The preferred food source for these birds – certain seeds – dwindled, and they were forced to feed on a secondary plant whose seeds were tougher and harder to reach. Those birds with longer, narrower beaks found it easier to reach these seeds and as a result, they survived and reproduced in greater numbers than those with the “standard” beak. No surprises here. Natural selection at work, doing what it does best.

The paper’s authors, though, speculated that if the drought persisted for many years, or decades, that eventually a new species of finch would emerge that was better adapted for survival in that new climate, even to the point of being unable or unwilling to mate with unaltered or unaffected finches. This is undiluted nonsense. There is not a shred of evidence, nor even a plausible theory, showing how environmental factors can force a specific, adaptive change in the genetic makeup of an organism. The birds’ beaks – long and short – were well within the natural variability for the species.

Lamarckism, it seems, is the Holy Grail of biology, offering a quick and easy fix to their pet theory, toning up the flabby science that permeates evolution. It certainly induces smart, well-educated professionals to abandon the scientific rigor that is a sine qua non in the other disciplines.

Richard White

Austin, Texas

But isn’t genetic splicing a form of intelligently driven Lamarckism? Lysenko thought he could force evolution through Lamarckian heredity.

‘The mismatch between the anatomical and genetic evidence surprised the scientists, who are now rethinking human evolution over the past few hundred thousand years.’

<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/science/at-400000-years-oldest-human-dna-yet-found-raises-new-mysteries.html?_r=0>

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Roland Dobbins

 

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This is a partisan presentation, and presents a growing view of events. I do not share this theory. I do believe that there is a strong Republican faction that would rather be in office as minority and will compromise with anything.

Hello Jerry,

I have been saying for years that the Obamunists are not incompetent; they are frighteningly competent—and evil to the core. You have been cautioning that we should not ascribe to evil that which is adequately explained by stupidity and incompetence.

Here is a piece by a guy (that I know nothing about other than what appears here) who is clearly in my camp—which of course proves nothing. Just another voice (from my perspective) crying in the wilderness:

Bob Ludwick

Why Obamacare is a Fantastic Success By Wayne Allyn Root

There are 2 major political parties in America. I’m a member of the naïve, stupid, and cowardly one. I’m a Republican. How stupid is the GOP? They still don’t get it. I told them 5 years ago, 2 books ago, a national bestseller ago ("The Ultimate Obama Survival Guide"), and in hundreds of articles and commentaries, that Obamacare was never meant to help America, or heal the sick, or lower healthcare costs, or lower the debt, or expand the economy.

The GOP needs to stop calling Obamacare a "train wreck." That means it’s a mistake, or accident. That means it’s a gigantic flop, or failure. It’s NOT. This is a brilliant, cynical, and purposeful attempt to damage the U.S. economy, kill jobs, and bring down capitalism. It’s not a failure, it’sObama’s grand success. It’s not a "train wreck," Obamacare is a suicide attack. He wants to hurt us, to bring us to our knees, to capitulate- so we agree under duress to accept big government.

Obama’s hero and mentor was Saul Alinsky- a radical Marxist intent on destroying capitalism. Alinksky’s stated advice was to call the other guy "a terrorist" to hide your own intensions. To scream that the other guy is "ruining America," while you are the one actually plotting the destruction of America. To claim again and again…in every sentence of every speech…that you are "saving the middle class," while you are busy wiping out the middle class.

The GOP is so stupid they can’t see it. There are no mistakes here. This is a planned purposeful attack. The tell-tale sign isn’t the disastrous start to Obamacare. Or the devastating effect the new taxes are having on the economy. Or the death of full-time jobs. Or the overwhelming debt. Or the dramatic increases in health insurance rates. Or the 70% of doctors now thinking of retiring- bringing on a healthcare crisis of unimaginable proportions. Forget all that.

The real sign that this is a purposeful attack upon capitalism is how many Obama administration members and Democratic Congressmen are openly calling Tea Party Republicans and anyone who wants to stop Obamacare "terrorists." There’s the clue. Even the clueless GOP should be able to see that. They are calling the reasonable people…the patriots…the people who believe in the Constitution…the people who believe exactly what the Founding Fathers believed…the people who want to take power away from corrupt politicians who have put America $17 trillion in debt…terrorists?

That’s because they are Saul Alinsky-ing the GOP. The people trying to purposely hurt America, capitalism and the middle class…are calling the patriots by a terrible name to fool, and confuse, and distract the public.

Obamacare is a raving, rollicking, fantastic success. Stop calling it a failure. Here is what it was created to do. It is succeeding on all counts.

#1) Obamacare was intended to bring about the Marxist dream- redistribution of wealth. Rich people, small business owners, and the middle class are being robbed, so that the money can be redistributed to poor people (who vote Democrat). Think about it. If you’re rich or middle class, you now have to pay for your own healthcare costs (at much higher rates) AND 40 million other people’s costs too (through massive tax increases). So you’re stuck paying for both bills. You are left broke.

#2) Obamacare was intended to wipe out the middle class and make them dependent on government. Think about it. Even Obama’s IRS predicts that health insurance for a typical American family by 2016 will be $20,000 per year. But how would middle class Americans pay that bill and have anything left for food or housing or living? People that make $40K, or $50K, or $60K can’t possibly hope to spend $20K on health insurance without becoming homeless. Bingo. That’s how you make middle class people dependent on government. That’s how you make everyone addicted to government checks.

#3) As a bonus, Obamacare is intended to kill every decent paying job in the economy, creating only crummy, crappy part-time jobs. Why? Just to make sure the middle class is trapped, with no way out. Just to make sure no one has the $20,000 per year to pay for health insurance, thereby guaranteeing they become wards of the state.

#4) Obamacare is intended to bankrupt small business, and therefore starve donations to the GOP. Think about it. Do you know a small business owner? I know hundreds of them. Their rates are being doubled, tripled and quadrupled by Obamacare. Guess who writes 75% of the checks to Republican candidates and conservative causes? Small business. Even if a small business owner manages to survive, he or she certainly can’t write a big check to the GOP anymore. Money is the "mother’s milk" of politics. Without donations, a political party ceases to exist. Bingo. That’s the point of Obamacare. Obama is bankrupting his political opposition and drying up donations to the GOP.

#5) Obamacare is intended to make the IRS all-powerful. It adds thousands of new IRS agents. It puts the IRS in charge of overseeing 15% of the U.S. economy. The IRS has the right because of Obamacare to snoop into every aspect of your life, to go into your bank accounts, to fine you, to frighten you, to intimidate you. And Obama and his socialist cabal have access to your deepest medical secrets. By law your doctor has to ask your sexual history. That information is now in the hands of Obama and the IRS to blackmail GOP candidates into either not running, or supporting bigger government, or leaking the info and ruining your campaign. Or have you forgotten the IRS harassed, intimidated and persecuted critics ofObama and conservative groups? Now Obama hands the IRS even more power. Big Brother rules our lives.

#6) Obamacare is intended to unionize 15 million healthcare workers. That produces $15 billion in new union dues. That money goes to fund Democratic candidates and socialist causes- thereby guaranteeing Obama’s friends never lose another election, and Obama’s policies keep ruining capitalism and bankrupting business owners long after he’s out of office.

Message to the GOP: This isn’t a game. This isn’t tidily-winks. This is a serious, purposeful attempt to highjack America and destroy capitalism. This isn’t a train wreck. It’s purposeful suicide. It’s not failing; it’s working exactly according to plan. Obama knows what he’s doing. Stopapologizing and start fighting.

Oh and one more thing…Conservatives aren’t "terrorists." We are patriots and saviors. We represent the Constitution and the Founding Fathers. We are the heroes and good guys. Unless you get all this through your thick skulls, America is lost…forever

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Handshakes. Global Warming, and Ice Ages

View 802 Tuesday, December 10, 2013

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The news today was largely about President Obama going out of his way to shake hands with Raul Castro at the memorial for Nelson Mandela. The State Department has said that the US position on human rights and tolerance in Cuba has not changed.

At the hearing on Tuesday, Kerry said Obama "didn’t choose who’s" at the Mandela ceremony. Asked by Congress Member Ros-Lehtinen if Castro is upholding basic human rights, Kerry answered: "No. Absolutely not."

The Obama hand shaking incident seems to have taken the lead in coverage of the event.

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‘Climate change’ comes to Chicago.

<http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/12/10/temps-reach-18-year-low-more-bitter-cold-and-snow-coming/>

Roland Dobbins

Of course it has been this cold before. It has been warmer before. It takes a lot of computer modeling to determine the temperature of the Earth and a lot more to show a trend, and depending on the model you get different results. Until recently it seemed agreed that the Earth is in a period of remission from the great Ice Ages in which glaciers covered a lot of the Northern Hemisphere, gouging out huge trenches and covering the land with a kilometer of ice, making that part of the Earth uninhabitable.

I was taught in school that we are in an Interglacial period, an interruption of the coming of the ice; in the 1970’s we learned that the current ice age began suddenly, with some areas in Britain and Belgium going from deciduous trees to covered with a meter or more of ice in decades, possibly as few as twenty years. When the ice began to recede northern Europe was repopulated. The effect of the coming and recession of the ice was covered in many books, including a popular work called Ice With Your Evolution by my friend Adrian Berry. The great fear from 1950 to about 1980 was that the Ice might return, and indeed one reason for fear of nuclear waste was to preserve it in places that could survive the return of the ice. This was a standard theme at AAAS meetings of that time, and President Carter’s environment advisor Gus Speth said as much at a Boston meeting; when I asked him if there was not something more to worry about than nuclear waste when your house was under a kilometer of ice, he changed the subject.

In 1997, Edward Teller, Lowell Wood, and Rod Hyde wrote a paper about modulation of climate changes – things we could do to stabilize climate if we have to. As they say in that paper, global warming is not proven; but all the long term evidence indicates a near uncertainty of cooling and the return of the ice. A return of the ice ages is sure to come and will be a lot more catastrophic than the projected global warming. There are ways to modulate climate for cooling or warming. The costs are in the order of billions a year, not precisely cheap but certainly less costly than wars.

Rather than destroying the fountains of wealth that have produced our wealthy age, would it not make more sense to invest a few billion a year to construct and test climate modulation systems? The ice age is sure to come at some time; global warming is also a possibility. Rather than play CO2 games, we need to develop the means for coping with either trend. And note that while global warming is gradual – we can’t really be sure if we’re seeing a return to a warm period like the Viking age or a runaway climate climb, but runaway still means centuries – the evidence show that ice ages can come on suddenly and without warming.

Our present methods of coping with warming cost trillions. We are not investing much in developing climate modulation methods. We should be.

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Those interested in tracking climate trends will find http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/1871-climate-superstition/ interesting, but not definitive.

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Your TSA heroes at work:

“She took my monkey’s gun.”

<http://www.king5.com/news/local/TSA-agent-confiscates-sock-monkeys-toy-pistol-234986321.html>

Roland Dobbins

I think I might be harmed from laughing too much were I threatened with a 2 inch pistol from a monkey puppet, so I guess it makes sense. Safety first. And a cure for unemp0loyment.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Economic Axioms and an apology for assuming something was obvious

View 802 Monday, December 09, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

 

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

 

What we have now is all we will ever have.

Conservationist motto

 

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. Period.

Barrack Obama, famously.

 

Cogito ergo sum.

Descartes

Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum. Cogito,

Ambrose Bierce

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My apologies for my rather obscure humor with my “quote of the day.”

Chicken chess

Jerry,

Nice quote of the day! Heh. I sincerely hope Putin said that. Hilarious!

""Negotiating with President Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board and then struts around like it won the game…""

I think I first heard it years ago, and I really hope Putin’s English coaches just threw it at him as an American or English ‘idiom’ last week and he threw it into the mix. An oldie but a goodie! Heh. I seem to recall it as a chicken (chickens can be trained to play checkers if I recall correctly) here’s a good one from a month or so back:

http://inagist.com/all/386938157671153664/

Anyhow, the sentiment is not lost on me, whether or not Putin said it or not. I Respect Putin, I Laugh at Obama.

I thought it pretty obvious that the Russian chief of state would never have publicly said anything that crass about the President of the Unite States. As my correspondent points out, the story has been told for decades, and attributed to just about everyone in modern times. I believe it was once attributed to Hitler about Neville Chamberlain. It has certainly been said about other American Presidents.

I have received mail informing me that there is no reliable source for Putin ever to have said that, and I am sure it is true. I would be astonished if there were. My apologies for a misplaced sense of humor.

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Time Warner has lately had the habit of shutting down my Internet connection about 11 PM PST every night when I sit down to do the mail, so there hasn’t been a mailbag for a while. I’ll get to that. Also there are a number of items to discuss including the current DOJ punishment of Apple with what amounts to a Special Prosecutor whom Apple must pay at $1000/hour and more. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303997604579242320326157900

This is a continuation of the odd DOJ law suit about Apple’s conspiracy to fix book prices by allowing publishers to set their own price for eBooks, as opposed to the Amazon model of having the prices fixed by Amazon. The result of this vile conspiracy is that Amazon has about 85% of the eBook market, and Apple is just beginning to crawl out of the hole it dug itself. One might think that Apple has adequately punished itself. As to anti-trust measures, one wonders. The anti-trust case against Microsoft had nothing to do with real monopolies: Microsoft didn’t believe in having a huge Washington lobby to dispense largesse to government employees and Congressional staffers, and the biggest Washington presence of Microsoft was its sales staff. After the anti-trust action against Microsoft that all changed and now Microsoft throws the big parties and does the other other stuff one expects from the Washington office of a bit corporation.

Now Apple is being shaken down. It’s one way to spread the wealth around.

I have had several smart lawyers try to explain to me how the world was harmed because Apple allowed publishers to set their own prices for the products they sold through the Apple store – the “Agency Model” – as opposed to Amazon’s “:reseller” model in which they paid the wholesale distributor price for a book then sold it at whatever Amazon thought best – usually less than Amazon paid for it for big loss leaders. Of course book stores have long been giving enormous discounts on best sellers in the hopes of getting customers into the stores where they will buy other books at full price and perhaps buy some coffee as well.

I have never understood why I needed the federal government to protect me either as a consumer or as an author. Amazon continued to pay the publisher the full distributor price – generally half the cover price – and author royalties are a percentage of the cover price, so there was never an issue there. And yes, the issue is far more complicated, and involves whether or not Apple conspired to fix book prices which is said to damage the entire market and be bad for everyone; and all this will shortly be before the Court of Appeals. Meanwhile every Apple executive including the design and innovation departments are being summoned before a federally appointed master who has the power to waste their time and collect $1,000/hour as he does it. This is not likely to give us the next big thing. Apple’s competitors are rejoicing: not only have has the government placed a primary hamper on Apple innovation, but Apple is being forced to pay for the inquisition.

That’s nice work if you can get it.

For more on this case, see http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/12/06/wsj-blasts-apple-e-books-antitrust-judge-in-scathing-editorial

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I am fortunate enough to have several physician readers of this column, and I would appreciate comment on last week’s Wall Street Journal editorial

Don’t Get Your Operation on a Thursday

Legislation can’t fix hospital overcrowding. Better scheduling of surgeries can.

By Eugene Litvak http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303914304579194530055759414

New York, five other states and the District of Columbia are considering legislation that would mandate minimum hospital-nurse staffing levels. The Massachusetts Nurses Association is planning an initiative for the November 2014 state ballot asking voters to approve a law setting minimum staffing levels for all hospitals, a change they say would alleviate the dangerous strain on overworked nurses and result in improved patient care. The nursing associations in the six states (including Texas, Iowa, Mass., N.J. and Minn.) fervently support such legislation. In turn, hospitals vehemently oppose staffing mandates.

Who is right and who is wrong? Although each side is right in some sense, there is a way to address the legitimate problems faced by nurses without a rigid formula like minimum staffing. It will help nurses and their patients while simultaneously saving hospitals money.

The problem apparently is that there are busy days and slow days in hospitals, and on the busy days the demand for nursing and orderly services in higher than the supply, while on other days there isn’t all that much for them to do. I’ve noticed the same thing in visits to Kaiser: some days the waiting rooms are full, other days the nurses have time to chat with both patients and each other. It really isn’t possible to have a bunch of standby nurses instantly available when demand is high, but not having to be around and on the payroll when things are slow.

Litvak’s solution is better scheduling models, something most OR (Operations Research) guys like me are familiar with. The first thing is to model the input queues. There are good statistics on demands for emergency room services, and a number of good models for staff sizes given predictable fluctuations in demand, and then accounting for an additional random demand input. I’d be astonished if most hospital administrators were not familiar with them. And according to Litvak

the peaks have nothing to do with emergency rooms. The real cause is scheduled, i.e. planned, patient admissions. When many admissions are scheduled for the same day, they create artificial peaks in the demand for beds and thus more work for nurses. Without the peaks in demand that hospitals themselves bring about with their scheduling practices, the hospitals could afford a much better nurse-staffing ratios without controversial legislative measures.

There is a hurdle, though. To better regulate the flow of patients, hospitals will have to change the way they accommodate the surgeons who have operating privileges at their institutions. Surgeons bring revenue into a hospital and in the past have largely operated at their convenience. The challenge is for hospitals to work with surgeons to stagger their scheduled admissions and procedures.

Surgeons are a limited resource and have their own scheduling requirements, and they are not slaves or good candidates for enslavement.

I’d appreciate comments.

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I once did a lot of formal study of economic theory, but I gave up: most economic models can be fudged to explain everything, but they don’t seem to be very good at predicting; which is one reason the Five Year Plans that were going to produce wealth in socialist countries didn’t work so well.

I have distilled basic economics into a few axioms about economics and government. One is primary.

I say this is an axiom, which is to say it is self-evidently true:

If you want more of something, subsidize it. If you want less of it, tax it or fine people for doing it.

A corollary is that if you can’t tax it, regulation will usually produce the same result.

The consequences of this should be obvious. If you want more unemployment, subsidize it. Pay people to be unemployed for a living and you will get applicants; raise the subsidy for being unemployed and you will get more of them.

But of course this is no more than reopening the discussion of the Deserving and the Undeserving Poor, and it has long seemed evident to me (not an axiom but a postulate) that the best way to deal with that dilemma is to leave a very great deal of the safety net to non-governmental institutions – to Tocqueville’s Associations. In his time these were mostly religious because religions promise high rewards for charity (And the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me.)

Of course we discourage religious activities and under the corollary we get less religious based activity for supporting the poor, so that government gets involved in deciding who shall receive entitlements and who shall not, and that involves politics and unionization. At one time there was even an attempt to form a union of welfare recipients, but I haven’t hear much about it since one city mayor invited them to go on strike and withhold their services.

Another principle I consider axiomatic is that raising minimum wages either has little effect or causes unemployment, and raising them enough will produce mass unemployment. This has always seemed self=evident to me, but my friend Ron Unz, who is a pretty smart cookie, has a different view.

Raise the Minimum Wage to $12 an Hour

Ron Unz, a software developer and publisher of The Unz Review, is the chairman of the Higher Wages Alliance, which is sponsoring a California ballot initiative next year to raise the state minimum wage to $12 per hour.

Tens of millions of low-wage workers in the United States are trapped in lives of poverty. Many suggestions have been put forth to improve their difficult situation, ranging from new social welfare programs to enhanced adult education to greater unionization. But I think the easiest solution is also the simplest: just raise their wages.
The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour and hiking it to $12 would solve many of our economic problems at a single stroke.

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/12/04/making-low-wages-liveable/raise-the-minimum-wage-to-12-an-hour

I have tried to follow Ron’s arguments here, but I can’t. I don’t see where the money will come from. The Marxist labor theory of value is that value is added by labor, and the capitalist pays below the value of the labor and keeps the surplus value for himself. Of course he then invests that profit in other enterprises, but that could be accomplished by a better system in which the workers themselves then own the enterprises in which the surplus values are invested.

Ron Unz argues that if Wal-Mart raised prices by less than 2% it could afford the $12 minimum wage without further price adjustments, and this would produce a massive economic stimulus – the higher pay would all be spent, not saved or invested, making more business for Wall-Mart – and the economy would boom. Wall-Mart won’t do that because this would signal competitors to pay less money in wages and use what they save to cut prices below Wall-Mart’s; but a minimum wage law would fix that. Now to compete with Wall-Mart you can’t do it by paying less than it pays, and once again everyone benefits.

I don’t know, but it seems to me that raising minimum wages either has no effect – people are already getting that – or it raises the cost of doing whatever it is that the worker does, and if that isn’t worth the minimum wage the job will disappear.

But I will vigorously dispute one point Ron makes: raising the minimum wage isn’t going to save billions in entitlements.

He says

Ordinary taxpayers would be the other great beneficiaries, saving many tens of billions of dollars each year in payments for Food Stamps, the Earned Income Tax Credit, housing subsidies, and other social welfare programs. Businesses should pay their own employees rather than quietly shifting the burden to government programs and the American taxpayer. Conservatives and free-market supporters should endorse this simple idea.

This assumes that having raised minimum wages the entitlement programs would be cut. I don’t believe that is politically possible.

I don’t disagree that Scrooge ought to have paid Cratchit a higher wage and ought to have bought a goose for the Cratchit family. I am less sure that Parliament should have required him to do it.

It’s lunch time. More later.

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I have not given abandoned the discussion about evolution theories, and the notion of inheritance of acquired characteristics needs discussion, but to me it is self evident that the original Darwinian hypothesis of blind chance and survival of the fittest simply can’t be demonstrated as plausible. My friend Fred has something to say on the subject: http://fredoneverything.net/LastDarwin.shtml And like Fred, I don’t know.  I don’t claim to know.  Just as I don’t know about Global Warming. But I am pretty sure that those who do claim that they KNOW are wrong.

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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