| Friday,
September 23, 2004 Dr Pournelle,
“Where are all the stars?”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3680944.stm
QUOTE/ Scientists studying the deepest picture of the
Universe, taken by the Hubble Space Telescope, have been left with a big
poser: where are all the stars?
The Ultra Deep Field is a view of one patch of sky
built from 800 exposures.
The picture shows faint galaxies whose stars were
shining just a few hundred million years after the Big Bang.
But the image's revelation that fewer stars than
expected were being born at this time brings into question current ideas on
cosmic evolution /END QUOTE
Jim Mangles
Well, I didn't hide them!
Actually I always liked Sir Fred's
continuous creation and his evolution from space. Of course Adrian Berry
says "I think Sir Fred is off his head, don't you agree?" and I have to sort
of gulp.
============
And this from Mark:
From Byte in 1/96, I think. Fella writing is one J.
Pournelle. Blurb at the bottom of the column suggests that he is a science
fiction writer....grin!
"I don't like Franklin Quest's Ascend 5.0. I
don't like the colors, and I particularly don't like the way it handles
telephone calls. It uses the Microsoft Dialer, which means that if you hang
up the phone after your call, your software doesn't know you've done that;
and until you go back into the software and tell it that you've hung up, it
keeps the phone tied up. It also keeps a log file open that is "timing" the
call long after you hung up.
"The result was that I didn't use Ascend 5.0 to
dial. I'd look up the numbers in a paper book; but since I wasn't using
Ascend 5.0, I wasn't entering new numbers in it, so I got to losing phone
numbers.
"I'm not sure what I had against the rest of
Ascend 5.0, but I went for almost two months without using it. The result
was a mess. I wasn't able to keep track of appointments. I was losing phone
messages. I didn't have any priority to my work. That clearly could not go
on.
"Therefore, I went back to Ascend 4.0. It has a
few flaws that version 5.0 was supposed to fix, but I can live with them;
and it's just easier for me to use. The colors are brighter. It has a phone
dialer that knows when I have hung up the phone. It took me about 2 hours to
go through the nine weeks in which I hadn't updated appointments, kept my
journal, done my reports, and dealt with my priority task lists, but
eventually I was done with all that.
"The effect on my work was immediate. No more
jotting down little notes on scrap s of paper and losing them. Now I have a
record, and even better, it's a record I can search. With luck, version 6.0
will be as good as version 4.0, but with the bugs fixed; until then, I can't
live without Ascend, but I can sure live without version 5.0.
"One good thing came of all this: I
rediscovered the joys of paper logbooks. The problem with an electronic log
is that you often don't have it with you, and often you want to make
handwritten notes. Carrying a printed copy of the electronic log and using
that to jot notes in doesn't work well because the resulting book is too
thick to carry easily.
"For years I carried Borum & Pease hardbound
composition books. They're like the ones you see in the drugstore, but they
come page-numbered. Since I have the habit of taping business cards,
letters, and newspaper clippings into my logbook, I've found it makes sense
to use nylon strapping tape to reinforce the binding. When I dropped Ascend,
I started a new logbook. I'm going to continue to carry that. T he result is
I have a book that supplements my electronic Ascend records nicely.
"One day I suppose I'll have a personal digital
assistant (PDA) that I can carry about and jot notes into. My son uses a 286
DOS-only monochrome Gateway HandBook for that purpose and has mastered the
art of typing fast with one hand while holding the system in the other. I
still need a place to set the HandBook down, and thus it's as easy to keep
the Gateway 2000 Liberty in my briefcase. The bottom line is that so far
there is no PDA as convenient as a paper logbook, especially if you also use
Ascend on your laptop and desktop.
"Incidentally, I have friends who like Ascend
5.0 and can't figure out why I don't."
Mark Huth
Clearly I went back to 4.0, and used that, and
then the Y2K bug killed that operation. Sigh.
Now I will need something new I think.
================
This is long, and you
should skip it if the information isn't useful
Frequently Asked Questions About Falun Gong
How many people have been affected by Jiang Zemin's
persecution against Falun Gong?
Since the leader of China, Jiang Zemin, began the
persecution of Falun Gong practitioners in 1999: 100 million people
practiced Falun Gong in 1998, but lost that right when Jiang banned it in
1999. Hundreds of thousands of Falun Gong practitioners have been illegally
arrested and detained. More than 500 have been sentenced to prison terms of
up to 18 years. More than 1,000 have been forced into mental hospitals, an
act condemned by World Psychiatric Association. Over 100,000 have been
illegally sent to labor camps without trials. At least 1023 deaths through
police torture have been confirmed, with government sources inside China
disclosing that the actual number exceeds 1,600.
What is Falun Gong?
Falun Gong is a traditional Chinese spiritual
discipline that includes exercise and meditation. Its principles are based
on Truth, Compassion, and Tolerance. Persons who practice regularly find it
to bring them better health, reduced stress, inner peace, and deepened
morals. The practice began in China in 1992 and quickly spread by word of
mouth throughout China and then beyond. Falun Gong is practiced by over 100
million people in 40 countries.
For more information about the practice of Falun Gong,
visit http://www.falundafa.org/.
Who is Mr. Li Hongzhi?
Mr. Li Hongzhi is the founder and teacher of Falun
Gong. He introduced the practice to the general public in China in 1992. In
keeping with Chinese tradition, Li is often respectfully referred to as
"Master" or "Teacher," but he is not accorded special treatment, nor does he
accept money or donations from students of Falun Gong. Li has given lectures
on Falun Gong in many countries, including Australia, Switzerland, Canada,
and the United States. For his contributions to humanity he has been given
over 400 honors and awards, and is a two-time Nobel Peace Prize nominee.
Is Falun Gong a religion?
Like religions, Falun Gong has its spiritual beliefs.
Through practicing, one strives to become a better person who is able to
contribute more to our society, so the goal is similar. But in Falun Gong
there are not any devotional activities or worship, nor any set doctrine or
canon; there is also no membership, organization, or hierarchy. Falun Gong
is more properly referred to as an ancient form of self-cultivation
practice, often called qigong.
Why is the Chinese government persecuting Falun Gong?
Falun Gong is a group that simply grew too large for
the communist leadership's liking; its 70-million-plus practitioners in
China far outnumbered communist party members. The persecution was ordered
by communist dictator Jiang Zemin, who feared losing control over people's
hearts and minds. Other, smaller groups that the State has not been able to
take control of are persecuted, too, like Protestants, Roman Catholics, and
Tibetan Buddhists.
For a more detailed account of why the Chinese leader
is persecuting Falun Gong, visit our special report on the subject (http://www.faluninfo.net/why/index.asp).
How has Falun Gong responded to this oppression?
Practitioners of Falun Gong in China have made appeals
to the Chinese government via the proper legal channels, and have resisted
the persecution with nonviolent public protests. There has not been a single
report of responding with violence, destroying property, or the like -
despite beatings, torture, jailings, murder, and other grave injustices.
Practitioners outside China have taken up long marches, done hunger strikes,
staged sit-ins, launched letter-writing campaigns, staged rallies, held
press conferences, and documented rights abuses.
What has been the United States' response, and that of
the international community?
The US government has been unequivocal in its
opposition to China's actions against Falun Gong. In November of 1999 the US
House unanimously passed resolution 218, with the Senate concurring, which
condemned Beijing's actions and called for the immediate release of all
jailed practitioners. A new, even stronger resolution, HR 188, was
introduced in July of 2002. President Bush and Secretary of State Powell
have spoken out and issued statements. Governments around the world have
responded with similar force. Human rights groups and other organizations
have been outspoken in their support for Falun Gong's freedom of belief,
including Freedom House, Amnesty International, Physicians for Human Rights,
and the National Organization for Women.
I found this of sufficient interest that I
read it. I know little to nothing about the situation or why China finds
this outfit so repulsive. They have been inimical to Christian missionaries
also, of course.
I put it here largely
to solicit letters like this:
Subject: Falun Gong
Jerry The Falun Gong aren't quite as innocent as they
try to portray themselves. The Chinese government is responding as all
dictatorships do to things they can't easily scare away.
Since the movement was invented in 1992 it has grown
to over 100 million people. In many ways they make Scientologists look
reasonable. They have taken a mixture of eugenics, fascism, spiritualism and
Darwinism to create something that appeals to the lost souls.
Since leadership is by appointment, the masters lead
their practitioners without having to worry about any challenge. Opposition
is by degenerates or if it's too powerful, by the hidden aliens.
Pasted from one web site Terminology: Falun Gong,
(pronounced fah-luhn goong), literally means "the Practice of the Wheel of
the Dharma." 1 Falun Gong refers to five sets of exercises, done to Chinese
music and involving lotus postures and hand movements. Falun Dafa is the
spiritual movement that practices Falun Gong. Increasingly, the movement
itself is being called Falun Gong.
"Cultivation," as used in Falun Dafa, is an Eastern
concept. It involves the development and transformation of one's entire
being -- body, mind and spirit. "One literally 'cultivates' their qualities
like a garden, planting seeds of goodness and not letting that goodness be
damaged by circumstances or events." 4Dafa means Great Law or universal
principles. Dharma was originally a Sanskrit word. It is commonly used by
Buddhists. It can refer to: "...the impermanent and interdependent nature of
all life." 2 The teachings of the Buddha. 3 The workings of natural law --
the way that life works. 3
Fa: The law. Falun means law wheel; Gong means the
cultivation of energy and capabilities. Qi: The body's vital energy Qigong:
a set of Chinese breathing exercises.
Symbol: The Falun Dafa symbol is circular and is
composed of a central, counterclockwise-pointing swastika, a symbol of the
Buddha School. It is surrounded by:
four smaller swastikas two red/blue Yin-Yang symbols
two red/black Yin-Yang symbols.
It is viewed as a miniature model of the universe.
Some advanced practitioners are believed to see the symbol revolving. "When
Falun rotates clockwise, it can automatically absorb energy from the
universe. While rotating counter clockwise, it can give off energy. An
internal clockwise rotation offers salvation to oneself while an external
rotation offers salvation to others." 5
The swastika symbol has been used for many millennia
throughout the world by various civilizations, including ancient Indian
society, Chinese society, Germanic tribes, native Americans and ancient
Israelites. It is only in the 20th century, after a tilted swastika was
adopted by the Nazis as their prime symbol, that the swastika has been seen
as representing evil.
Racism: According to the New York Times, Li Hongzhi
said that: "...interracial children are the spawn of the 'Dharma Ending
Period,' a Buddhist phrase that refers to an era of moral degeneration. In
an interview last year, he said each race has its own paradise, and he later
told followers in Australia that, 'The yellow people, the white people, and
the black people have corresponding races in heaven.' As a result, he said,
interracial children have no place in heaven without his intervention."
Beliefs: As noted below, homosexuality is degenerate
behavior, on a par with sexual promiscuity. As noted below, illness is
caused by the indwelling of "an intelligent entity that exists in another
dimension." The body's vital energy, Qi, can be focused to improve one's
health and sense of well being. But it can also "be used to develop the
ability to fly, to move objects by telekinesis, and to heal diseases." 12
"...the Falun, or Dharma Wheel, and is described by Mr. Li as a miniature of
the cosmos that he says he installs telekinetically in the abdomens of all
his followers, where it rotates in alternating directions, throwing off bad
karma and gathering qi. Many Falun Gong adherents say they can feel the
wheel turning in their bellies." 13 Eighty-one previous human civilizations
had achieved a higher level of scientific achievement than we enjoy at the
present time. However, they were all "left in complete destruction." 12 A
person with qigong training can walk through solid objects, like a wall. A
qigong master emits "gong:" a "high-energy substance that manifests in the
form of light." Individuals with some qigong training can exhibit
super-human abilities: clairaudience, telepathy, precognition, etc. But it
takes a qigong master to achieve certain functionality, like alchemy -- the
ability to transform one type of substance to another. The latter could tear
down a large building using mental power only. They would never do this in
practice, because it is forbidden for them to demonstrate their powers.
Also, such destruction would cause harm. 10 Karma is a type of black
material that encompasses each person's body. It has a physical existence
"in another dimension and can transform into sickness or misfortune." Qigong
practitioners can open their "tianmu" -- third eye. When the passage between
their third eye and pineal gland can take many shapes: "oval, to round,
rhombic to triangular." It can be used to see through walls. A practitioner
can engage in remote viewing and observe objects thousands of miles away.
Normal people are aware of only three dimensional existence -- four if you
include time. However, a qigong master can see "dozens of levels of
dimensions." Time shifting is also possible. 10 There are many living
entities on earth that appear to be humans, but in fact are aliens.
Stephen Walker
But understand, I know literally nothing
about these people.
I know a number of Scientologists, largely
through being a judge with the Writers of the Future, and whatever horrors
there may have been, (I have ted the books, and I know Keith Hensen) as
Algis Budrys says, most of those stories were about times long ago; while
the people I know are pleasant and do good work with the contests, which I
think are very useful for new writers. And as Roberta observes when we go to
Writers of the Future dinners in the Scientology Celebrity Center (last time
was with Ann McCaffrey and Kelley Freas and Yoji Kondo and Tim Powers and
Fred Pohl, old friends I see far too little of) -- outside the Center you
can see drug deals going down, and surly kids; inside there are plenty of
teen age kids and every one is polite, reading, and drinking soft drinks or
coffee. So comparisons with Scientology trigger mixed feelings in my case.
It is literally true that a couple of my better friends are Scientologists,
including one chap I consider the best authority on Medieval Jewish
scholarship I know.
The Chinese seem determined to root out
this group. I don't know why.
=======
The following is also long. I have been
cleaning out old mail as you may surmise:
Don't Shake Hands With Your Doctor. By Jack R Button
In 1875, Thomas Eakins made a painting of Samuel
Gross, a surgeon. It shows Dr. Gross wearing a surgical gown that was stiff
with the splatter of numerous operations. He was painted because he was an
outstanding surgeon -- not because he was one of the leading opponents of
the germ theory in the United States.
In Austria, thirty-five years before, DR. Ignaz
Semmelweis had found that far fewer patients died from infection when
doctors were required to wash their hands between patients. Austrian
physicians had fought this news and drove DR. Semmelweis to the edges of the
profession. He died insane.
American physicians fought Dr. Semmelweis' news as
strongly as the Austrian doctors. One declared that it is impossible that
physicians carry something on their hands that kills patients…. " we are
gentlemen."
Today, 157 years since Dr. Semmelweis‘ discovery,
doctors still do not wash their hands between patients about 55% of the
time. Doctors at Kaiser Permanente’s hospitals still shake hands with
patients. The Center for Disease Control tells us that there are even
doctors in the U.S. who do not wash up for surgery. This is one of the
reasons that each year about 2,000,000 persons acquire an infection in an
American hospital. And about 103,000 of them die each year as a result.
Your lifetime risk of dying from a hospital acquired
infection is twice as high as being killed in an automobile accident. The
most effective way to avoid these infections is simple -- stay away from
hospitals and doctor's offices unless absolutely necessary.
It is not a hardship to avoid "encounter medicine."
Sound data tell us that a visit to the doctor is as likely to harm you as to
help you. Every medical intervention includes a risk to the patient. The
American pattern of care increases that risk. Treatment is maximized. And
the more treatment, the more people are made ill or killed by drugs and
operations.
Dr Barbara Starfield is highly respected physician,
teacher and administrator. In an article in the Journal of the American
Medical Association, she estimates that each year 420,000 Americans are
killed by iatrogenic (doctor caused) harm. Hospital acquired infection,
(80,000 deaths a year) and reaction to medicine properly administered in
hospitals, (106,000 deaths a year), were leaders.
The estimates used are known to be low. The article
omits a number of categories of doctor caused death— such as cancer caused
by unjustified X-rays. A study found that when doctors buy their own X-ray
equipment, they suddenly order twice as many X-rays and charge more than
twice as much.
Studies show that each additional doctor increases
medical costs in an area by over $2,000,000 a year-- without making a net
improvement in health or the length of the patient's lives. Put bluntly,
additional medical care kills about as many persons as it saves and causes
about as much illness as it cures.
It is clear that our health care has to be
restructured. We can ignore the needless deaths but not the soaring costs.
If the growth rate could be sustained, medical care would reach an
impossible $82,000 a year in 2025.
Doctors have no interest in making the needed changes.
A rational system of care will shrink physician's income and authority. It
is up to the rest of us to act.
Businesspersons can be expected to be among the
leaders in restructuring health care -- once they understand that our
medical care is mostly smoke and mirrors.
The needed model of care is available. It is a new
system of health care cooperatives. The cooperatives can prosper by
providing "optimally limited care," which is the treatment that a patient
would choose if they were given all of the facts on benefits, risks and
cost.
The financial structure of cooperatives make it
possible to strip them of the fee-for-service incentives that expand costs
and kill patients. Far safer care at one third the cost will be popular.
People can be expected to vote with their feet, causing echoing corridors in
fee-for-service hospitals.
In 1976, Dr.Franz Inglefinger was the editor of the
New England Journal of Medicine. In an editorial, he estimated that only ten
percent of medical cases were helped by treatment. He placed the number of
cases where the patient is harmed by treatment at 9% "give a point or two
either direction." He described the net benefit of medical treatment as
being "moderately on the positive side of zero."
Current studies show that Dr. Inglefinger's estimates
were surprisingly accurate. They were just a bit optimistic. Sound studies
show that outcomes are on the negative side of zero.
The sooner Americans become health care realists like
Dr.Inglefinger, the sooner we will shift to cooperatives. And the sooner we
will be free from medical expenses that cost jobs, eat our retirement, and
take the tax money needed for basic services.
You don't have to wait, you can get a head start. Stay
in control, do your own research – and trust no one completely. Do not go to
the doctor unless you know what you want.
. Remember that your decisions will usually be better
than your doctor's. Your decisions won't be distorted by years of living in
a fantasy world where you play death fighter while shortening many lives.
This time the financial incentives can work for you. Stay out of hospitals
if at all possible
Shifting to a rational system of care can reduce
medical costs by over $1,000,000,000,000 a year and save a great many lives
-- maybe yours.
Jackrbutton@health-care-revolution
===========
Subject: "There's no electro shock--yet."
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1035_22-5379953.html
--- Roland Dobbins
================
We have seen this story before:
Subject: Teacher Arrested After Bookmark Called
Concealed Weapon
I feel safer, don't you?
You asked what would happen when all the jobs for the
lower half of the bell curve were exported. For those at the far end, they
get jobs at the TSA.
http://www.local6.com/news/3738885/detail.html
Dean
But you raise a point that needs dealing
with. TSA jobs tend to require judgment when faced with new situations not
covered in training, and thus need people with education rather than
training. Most skilled jobs don't need that: they need meticulous care to do
things right. This is not something to denigrate. High IQ allows education,
and often correlates rather badly with the ability to do skilled work. Most
professors (back when professors were smart and educated) were awful
mechanics and the tales of absent-minded professors were based on realities.
One can admire a skilled mechanic or plumber or air conditioning expert,
although I suspect there are very few of any such reading this.
The left half of the Bell Curve are people
we need; but we need to be sure there are jobs and training. Skill is not
education. Educated people can learn skills, but many aren't very good at
skilled work. My carpenter friend makes wonderful model airplanes and thinks
nothing of spending months on one; that would drive me mad, although I would
love to have something like that I could say I had made. And so forth. I
doubt he could run this web site. Or want to.
========
Subject: Laptops and Spinach
Dr. Pournelle:
As a wise philosopher said "Well, blow me down!"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6084099/
Regards, Rick Hellewell
===========
And here on Iraq
we have:
I am truly not trying to be defeatist in posting this.
I in fact hope the US can somehow stay the course, hold elections and get
out leaving Iraq in one piece controlled by moderately anti-US Shiites.
But this report is interesting because it gives the UK
counterfactual to US methods of ruling Iraq. And the results are...it makes
no difference who rules Iraq, it always goes from bad to worse.
Thus even if a committee composed of Jesus Christ,
John Stuart Mill and Otto Bismark had run the CPA with all the money and
staff they needed it would not make much difference.
The Iraqi political class would still have been
composed mainly of hot-headed Iraqis. They apparently can think of nothing
better to do with their new found freedom than take up arms to settle scores
against who ever is within AK47/RPG range.
So perhaps the Bushies should not beat themselves up
too much over their undoubted errors in administrative execution. Even if
every decision they made about security, economy, polity, military had been
absolutely perfect Iraq would still have gone FUBAR. Bushies stuff- ups just
made us taste the bitter truth sooner.
Not that all Iraqis are like this. But all Iraqi
political contestants seem to trend this way, esp the young and restless
males. In political contests of this kind, one "counts balls, not noses".
I believe that this is another data point in favour of
the Steve Sailer "Mesopotamia: in-bred grave yard of statesmans dreams"
argument against Iraqi regime change.
J
Iraq: How bad can things get? By Paul Wood BBC
Middle East correspondent, Basra
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/
from_our_own_correspondent/3675538.stm
Just how bad are things in Iraq? Since just
last week it has seen hundreds of deaths, suicide bombings, beheadings, yet
more people kidnapped.
When I visited Basra exactly one year ago it
was safe enough to stay in town on our own.
This time, we wouldn't dream of doing that. The
chances of being kidnapped are too great.
British troops are on high alert as they patrol
Basra now It's true there have been some real, solid achievements over the
past year.
There aren't petrol queues, or petrol riots, in
Basra any more.
The electricity is on for longer. And oil
exports from the south are up to 2.9 million barrels a day.
But here are some other statistics. Last month,
the British Army fired 100,000 rounds of ammunition in southern Iraq.
The base in al-Ammara sustained more than 400
direct mortar hits.
The British battalion there counted some 853
separate attacks of different kinds: mortars, roadside bombs, rockets and
machine-gun fire.
No British regiment has had such intense
"contact", as they call it, since Korea.
Fury over Najaf
A year ago, the British Army was still
congratulating itself on running one of the more peaceful parts of Iraq.
It seems sometimes UK troops are gingerly
walking on the thin crust of a volcano, wondering how much pressure is
building below
If you'd predicted all this, it would have been
dismissed as doom- mongering.
British officers characterise the fighting in
August as merely a spike in the violence.
They say quite rightly that the trouble had a
particular cause.
The Americans were battling Shia gunmen loyal
to the radical cleric Moqtada Sadr in Najaf.
The British say they could have destroyed
Sadr's militia if they had wanted to. The fury spilled over into Basra and
al-Ammara.
The anger was fuelled by the widespread belief
that US-led forces were attacking the two holy shrines in Najaf.
At the height of the crisis, a leading Shia
figure in Basra told a British Brigadier: "There are lots of moderates here
who support you. But if the shrines are touched, I'll kill you myself."
Uprising fears
Eventually a peace deal in Najaf brought peace
to the rest of the south too.
Since the shrines were not touched, only about
400 hard-core gunmen joined the fight against the multi-national forces in
Basra.
Still, in an area which is 99% Shia, the great
danger for the British is of a general uprising.
A year ago the atmosphere in Basra was very
different It sometimes seems as if the troops are gingerly walking on the
thin crust of a volcano, wondering how much pressure is building below.
The British - with tanks, air support and
thousands of soldiers - say they could have destroyed the small militia
force attacking them.
But they were asked by local people not to turn
Basra into a war zone.
And because they didn't, the majority still
welcomes them here.
Grateful for security
We went on a British patrol in the dead of
night to stop and search vehicles on the road from al-Ammara to Basra.
None of Basra's 25,000 police officers came to
the aid of the British soldiers in the August fighting. Some even helped the
gunmen
At our checkpoint, drivers were made to get out
and show their ID cards while soldiers looked under the seats and in the
boot for illegal weapons.
Not one of the drivers or passengers expressed
any resentment at this.
One explained that hostage-taking was
especially bad on that stretch of road.
The gangs usually kidnap a driver, his lorry
and its cargo, he said, and ransom the whole lot back to the company
concerned.
Many drivers are killed. It's no surprise then
that people are glad of the British presence.
Vicious intimidation
The problem is that very few people are
actively supporting the fight against the militants.
There are no illusions about life in the
British sector any more A vicious campaign of intimidation doesn't help
matters.
Last month, five cleaning ladies at a British
base were murdered on their way to work.
Two local translators disappeared. Their
severed heads were found outside the front gate.
But perhaps the most worrying development of
the August fighting was that none of Basra's 25,000 police officers came to
the aid of the British soldiers. Some even helped the gunmen.
I met one of the senior civilian political
advisors to the military command.
Every time he came to Basra things seemed a
"step change worse", he said.
The best thing to happen, he went on, would be
for a new Islamic government to be elected in January which would ask
multi-national forces to leave.
I don't think he was being facetious.
Exit strategy
Elections do form part of the exit strategy,
but not in this way.
The hope is that national elections in January
will produce a government with the authority and the legitimacy to face down
the gunmen on its own.
But in local elections in the British sector
this week, turnout was just 15%.
A government election with that much backing
would be just one faction in the civil war which some American intelligence
officials believe is brewing.
That is very much the worst case. But whatever
happens, British officers no longer have any illusions that the southern
corner of Iraq they run will be immune from the violence.
And that says a very great deal. The same
correspondent sends:
It looks like this article will become more applicable
to Iraq et al in the not to distant future.
The Coming Anarchy
How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism,
and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet
The Atlantic by Robert D. Kaplan
http://web.archive.org/web/20000816043104/
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/foreign/anarchy.htm
The Minister's eyes were like egg yolks, an
aftereffect of some of the many illnesses, malaria especially, endemic in
his country. There was also an irrefutable sadness in his eyes. He spoke in
a slow and creaking voice, the voice of hope about to expire. Flame trees,
coconut palms, and a ballpoint-blue Atlantic composed the background. None
of it seemed beautiful, though. "In forty-five years I have never seen
things so bad. We did not manage ourselves well after the British departed.
But what we have now is something worse--the revenge of the poor, of the
social failures, of the people least able to bring up children in a modern
society." Then he referred to the recent coup in the West African country
Sierra Leone. "The boys who took power in Sierra Leone come from houses like
this." The Minister jabbed his finger at a corrugated metal shack teeming
with children. "In three months these boys confiscated all the official
Mercedes, Volvos, and BMWs and willfully wrecked them on the road." The
Minister mentioned one of the coup's leaders, Solomon Anthony Joseph Musa,
who shot the people who had paid for his schooling, "in order to erase the
humiliation and mitigate the power his middle- class sponsors held over
him." <snip>
Jane Jacobs speaks of a coming Dark Age.
She of course means here.
===================
From W2K
News
|
Thousands Of Zombies Created Daily
Symantec apparently monitors the Net and can see how many
PC's are turned into zombies. Since 50% of the USA's
households are now on 'always-on' cable internet, the
numbers are going up rapidly.
It turns out that the rate at which PC's are getting
hijacked skyrocketed in the first half of 2004. A whopping
30,000 systems per day were subverted into zombies, and that
is 15 times more than the 2000 per day in 2003.
Symantec claimed that building "botnets" (networks of
zombies) is a very lucrative business. Phishers and spammers
pay good money for botnets, which can also be used for all
kinds of other attacks like Ddos. Symantec's service
development manager Jeremy Ward told New Scientist (link
below) that "What we're seeing now is malware that is truly
professional, you have the ability to set up botnets for a
number of money-making schemes."
http://www.w2knews.com/rd/rd.cfm?id=040927TB-Zombies
|
|
and see below
=============
This from another conference:
America's *original* occupation plan was not all that
crazy, according to an interview on PBS radio with General Jay Garner I
heard yesterday (Thursday, 9/23/2004). Going in, the plan was to disband the
Republican Guard units, but to keep the regular Iraqi Army intact, "Under
New Management". Note that this plan was consistent with the
Administration's pre-GW-II propaganda effort aimed at getting the regular
Iraqi Army to overthrow Saddam itself and thereby save itself from the
inevitable drubbing by the U.S. military.
This plan at least made numeric sense--we were not
sending in enough troops to police the entire nation, so we would take over
its existing Army/police forces and merely purge the worst of its Baathist
leadership. General Garner had no idea why the plan was changed under his
successor.
Meanwhile, of course, it is not extraordinary for
Americans to not be able to go places for fear of kidnapping. A number of
fellow residents of my Houston condo building are Mexican nationals who come
to Houston to get away from the constant threat of kidnapping/need to have
armed guards with them at all times they experience back home in Mexico
City. Things are even worse in Columbia, I hear.
And as for "no-go" areas, ref: my separate post on
this topic. Europe has at least a hundred of them by now--muslim
neighborhoods made so dangerous by disaffected young males that police and
fire services stay out. As my Christian Nigerian cab drivers always say,
"Muslims Are Trouble".
Anyway, remember that Iraq disintegrating would not be
a bad thing. Smaller entities have less resources to cause trouble, and more
focus on just fending off the tribes around them. It's only when oil money
is available that these thugs can embark on anything really troublesome like
WMD programs (e.g., Pakistan would not have nukes were it not for Saudi
subsidies).
Also remember that we have not even *tried* positive
incentives. Young men who will be costing their grandmother her pension
check that month by causing trouble would be less inclined to attack just
for the hell of it. But instead we apparently keep sending the food rations
to Faluja.
Jim
There are things that can be done: why
they aren't done I don't know. And why we changed the original occupation
plan including the promises to the regular army units that they would have a
place in rebuilding the new Iraq I don't know either. But I don't understand
neo-Jacobins.
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