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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 237 December 23 - 29, 2002

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Monday  December 23, 2002

And a Merry Christmas Week to all

There was a great deal of discussion in Mail over the weekend. 

I have some new mail up, but I have to go out: I will do my Christmas shopping early this year.

 

 

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Tuesday, December 24, 2002

Christmas Eve

Peace on Earth to Men of Good Will

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Merry Christmas from Sable, and thanks to subscriber John Zaccone, who sent her a Christmas present all her own...

A message for all who protect our land by sea.

And more puppy pictures...


Merry Christmas, and may God bless you all.

 

We all hear the first verse of this every year. We generally do not hear the rest.

  

 O ye, beneath life's crushing load,
  
whose forms are bending low,
 
Who toil along the climbing way
  
with painful steps and slow,

 Look now! For glad and golden hours
  
come swiftly on the wing:
 
O rest beside the weary road,
  
and hear the angels sing!

   Yet with the woes of sin and strife,
    
the world has suffered long
 
Beneath the heavenly strain have rolled
    
two thousand years of wrong;

  And man, at war with man, hears not
    
the tidings that they bring;
 
O hush the noise, ye men of strife,
    
and hear the angels sing!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The house is full of relatives...

 

 

 

 

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Visit from grand daughter. All day. Exhausting...

 

 

 

 

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Friday, December 27, 2002

Heimatsicherheitshauptampt  or GeheimSicherheitPolizei AKA Gestipo 

I will explain these later. See mail.

Trying to get back into work habit mode...

I do note that a day or so after the story about a passenger being locked up and fined for saying to pilots of a commercial airline "I hope you guys are sober," A Co-Pilot was busted for being under the influence. Different airline: does this mean it's OK for passengers to make cracks at Delta but not other airlines? In fairness, the co-pilot was close to the line, .07 as opposed to the acceptable .04, and probably had a beer with lunch or something: forbidden and not a good idea, but probably not dangerous. 

But the juxtaposition of the two stories says a lot. Don't we all feel so much safer now? More secure?


American Foreign Policy

It's easy enough to state general principles: the devil is in the details. I start, then, with a thorny problem that very much demands a US policy, and go from there to a more general statement. 

For a good statement of Israel's policy, click here.

I note in today's paper that a number of Palestinians have been killed, and Bethlehem is once more occupied by Israel, with patrols in Manger Square.

These are inevitable consequences of the settlements scattered through Judea and Samaria (and Gaza, which is in many ways even stranger). It's easy to see the settlements around Bethlehem (in the fields where they lay, watching their sheep...), but they aren't confined to border areas. They are scattered through the length and breadth of Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank") and scattered less thickly in Gaza. There are more than 80 of them.

The settlements are not defensible in the sense that anyone can prevent attacks on them: any gunman willing to die for the cause can manage to do some damage, sometimes shooting at armed male settlers, sometimes shooting any available target including women and children. The Israeli authorities then retaliate. The gunman is killed; often some other Palestinian civilians who may or may not be "innocent" but who can be made to appear so (and some really are innocent) are also killed. The miscreant's house is blown up. His family is made homeless.

The Israelis say that they hope these measures will deter future attacks on the settlements. This may well deter some potential attackers, but they will also provoke others to rage, particularly if they are followed by other acts of retaliation by the settlers on their Palestinian neighbors: chasing them out of olive groves, shooting at their goats, and so forth. Provocation plus easy opportunities for revenge will often lead to more attacks on the settlements and settlers. And the beat goes on.

If it is the Israeli policy to keep things aflame in the hopes that eventually they can wage an all out war on Palestinians, and employ ethnic cleansing in Judea and Samaria (possibly deporting the Palestinians to Gaza and perhaps evacuating the settlements in Gaza), this looks like a nearly optimum strategy, since it appears to be defensive, reactive, and retaliatory. It's easy to explain retaliation for attacks on women and children. Who can condemn that?

Of course it is easily predicted that the settlements will be attacked -- and any time the Israeli army scales down its activities and allows anything like normal life to resume in Judea and Samaria, it is predictable with near certainty that there will be new opportunities for attacks on the settlements, and new attacks will be forthcoming -- particularly since new settlements are being prepared, and old ones expanded.

This is conquest on the installment plan, and it's unlikely that it's not intended by Sharon. 

Understand, if I lived in that area, my views on this would probably be determined by who I happened to be. The Israeli Jews are divided into those with religious or imperial goals -- those positions tend to be highly correlated although not contiguous -- and a secular population who would be content just to have peace; that latter is divided again into those who want peace but ethnic superiority, and those who think they could live with secular equality. But that last group is itself terrified by birthrates: they don't tend to have a lot of children, and the Palestinians do. Straight democracy in Israel will inevitably result in Palestinian control of the government, which will likely be followed by the expulsion of the Jews. Most Israeli Jews fear this, and many are certain it will happen.

Thus Sharon's strategy, to keep the pot boiling. This convinces more and more secular Jews that there is no peace and never will there be until the Palestinians are simply gone. Now again, that group is divided into those who think that partition would bring peace -- stable borders difficult to infiltrate, and well defended -- and those who think there can be no peace until the Palestinians are gone from Judea and Samaria.  

Clearly the Sharon strategy is to convince more and more people that that final group is correct: there won't be peace until the Palestinians are expelled, and Israel extends through all of the old Mandate (possibly excluding Gaza). This is explicitly stated by a number of American Jewish groups who run advertisements in mostly conservative magazines: there is a Palestine, and it was renamed Trans-Jordan, and is now called Jordan, and that's where the Palestinians belong. 

And that is where things stand. Note I have tried to keep moral judgments out of this.

What ought the United States to do in this situation? 

I can say what I would prefer to see Israel do: withdraw the most indefensible settlements; consolidate the rest into a defensible border; fortify that border; expel anyone within the new borders of Israel who will not swear allegiance or who having sworn shows insincerity in word or deed; and close the border. Let Gaza and the West Bank remnant decide their own fate, either as an alliance or as two separate states, and their own form of government. Tell the new state or states that any attacks from across the border will be treated as acts of war and retaliation made, and probably will cause a change of regime. To the protestation that "If you think we are bad, think again, if you remove me you'll get Hamas or worse" say "Then we'll remove them, too."

But then that is the strategy I would recommend to the United States. And yes, given that strategy for the US, I can think of a couple of regimes that need changing. We did the job in Afghanistan. I can list a couple of others where decapitation would be a bonny thing to do...

Interestingly, what if every ruling class understood that the United States really meant that: We are the friends of liberty everywhere, we are the guardians only of our own: leave us alone and we'll leave you alone; trade with us and we'll trade with you, but you have nothing we want that we are not willing to pay for; provoke us or harbor those who attack us and someone else will be ruling your country. If the world understood that to be our invariant policy, we at least would have a rather peaceful existence.

I'd rather have peace on earth. But we already know that if you would have peace, be prepared for war.  And know what you are fighting for...


You will find over in mail an anecdote about Google and search engines. Looking into that got me to thinking and I began to look things up to see if I come up anywhere. I seem to be cited on the first page of hits on Republic and Empire, and on the fourth page for DC/X.  I never found this page cited on a search on foreign policy, space policy, science policy, or x-projects or x-planes. That isn't surprising, but there is some interesting and alternative information in these pages. I suppose the moral of this story is that no search engine will take you unerringly to the places you may need to go... I did find my page when I searched for SSX, but you'd need to know to do that.

Of course I don't update all the space papers much: there's no need. Things don't really change...

I also looked for x-airplane, and found a reference on pages 3 and 5, so I guess someone could find this place if they looked hard enough. Anyway, it's all summarized on the space papers home page.

 

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Saturday, December 28, 2002

Holy Innocents

Still recovering from Christmas. Trying to get back in to writing mode.

The troops are moving out. We'll soon enough know if we can build a viable democracy, or at least an outpost of western capitalism, in an Arab country. It may be we have more confidence than before because we've done something like that up in the Kurdish areas of Iraq: there's not a lot of news from up there, but apparently the CIA is pretty well running the place.

Of course North Korea -- remember the Axis of Evil, Iraq, Iran, North Korea? -- has decided to heat up the stew, whether as a distraction or in an attempt to get some precedents on record I don't know. The unfortunate lesson many are learning from this is that if you have a nuke or two, you can get away with a lot; if you don't have one, you can be pushed around. It would take a particularly stupid dictator not to learn this lesson.

Obviously, this becomes an intelligence game: NK needs to convince us it has a nuke, and is crazy enough to employ it in a last ditch attack on Saigon or Tokyo; while the Company seeks to find the darned things so they can be disarmed or destroyed by one or another kind of raid. This is a situation where some credible missile defenses would be very useful...

I think the fate of Iraq is sealed. The war will start before Valentine's Day. US casualties will be under 1,000 while Iraqi casualties will run to the tens of thousands and possibly an order of magnitude greater. The result will be US/UK occupation of Iraq, and a proconsul to rebuild the country.

As to the oil, the sensible thing for an imperialist to do would be to pump a lot of it, getting the cost down to $20 a barrel on the world market. This would have a salutary effect on the DOW, pushing it above 10,000 and probably higher (low energy costs are a wonderful stimulant to any economy). On the other hand, the Russians pump about as much oil as Saudi Arabia and won't like our driving the price down. 

European intellectuals will jeer at us and whine a lot whatever we do, and I doubt that Bush and his people pay much attention to anyone over there but the Brits. European policies are greatly influenced by the intellectuals. Europe's real policy is to act like a Great Power, while using US military power to enforce the European decrees. Stalin once asked how many divisions the Pope had. It's a fair question to ask about NATO.

All in all it looks to be an interesting New Year.


Does anyone know off hand how to install a Windows 95 only program on an XP machine? I expect it's simple enough, but as usual the help index is smarter than I am.

Got it. I think. Thanks!

 

 

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Sunday, December 29, 2002

Pan Am Baghdad Express...

Visit today from the boy down the street, who grew up, went to the USAF Academy, retired back in the military cut-back crunch, is now in seminary... and is married to an active duty officer who has been told to prepare for deployment. 

I suppose I ought to do a year's end essay. We're going in. Now the question is, what will we do when we are there? 

I am frequently asked to recommend general histories of Western Civilization. I had a few words to say on that in a Book of the Month recommendation in www.byte.com for October. You can find that here.

Thanks to Mr. St. Onge, the Book Reviews page has been brought pretty well up to date.

I insert the following for the good of your souls. That is: we were required to read this in my high school. The concept of the one-hoss-shay is worth having in your vocabulary. Anyway, it doesn't take long to read and it's fun.

It will also get you to remember the date of the Lisbon Earthquake, which was so bad that it caused Voltaire to doubt the goodness of God.

 

The Deacon's Masterpiece Or, The Wonderful "One-Hoss Shay": A Logical Story

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Have you heard of the wonderful one-hoss shay,  
That was built in such a logical way
It ran a hundred years to a day,
And then, of a sudden, it -- ah, but stay,

I'll tell you what happened without delay,
Scaring the parson into fits,
Frightening people out of their wits, --
Have you ever heard of that, I say?

Seventeen hundred and fifty-five.
Georgius Secundus was then alive, --
Snuffy old drone from the German hive.
That was the year when Lisbon-town
Saw the earth open and gulp her down,
And Braddock's army was done so brown,
Left without a scalp to its crown.
It was on the terrible Earthquake-day
That the Deacon finished the one-hoss shay.
Now in building of chaises, I tell you what,
There is always somewhere a weakest spot, --
In hub, tire, felloe, in spring or thill,
In panel, or crossbar, or floor, or sill,
In screw, bolt, thoroughbrace, -- lurking still,
Find it somewhere you must and will, --
Above or below, or within or without, --
And that's the reason, beyond a doubt,
A chaise breaks down, but doesn't wear out.

But the Deacon swore (as Deacons do,
With an "I dew vum," or an "I tell yeou")
He would build one shay to beat the taown
'N' the keounty 'n' all the kentry raoun';
It should be so built that it could n' break daown:
"Fur," said the Deacon, "'t 's mighty plain
Thut the weakes' place mus' stan' the strain;
'N' the way t' fix it, uz I maintain,
Is only jest
T' make that place uz strong uz the rest."

So the Deacon inquired of the village folk
Where he could find the strongest oak,
That couldn't be split nor bent nor broke, --
That was for spokes and floor and sills;
He sent for lancewood to make the thills;
The crossbars were ash, from the straightest trees,
The panels of white-wood, that cuts like cheese,
But lasts like iron for things like these;
The hubs of logs from the "Settler's ellum," --
Last of its timber, -- they couldn't sell 'em,
Never an axe had seen their chips,
And the wedges flew from between their lips,
Their blunt ends frizzled like celery-tips;
Step and prop-iron, bolt and screw,
Spring, tire, axle, and linchpin too,
Steel of the finest, bright and blue;
Thoroughbrace bison-skin, thick and wide;
Boot, top, dasher, from tough old hide
Found in the pit when the tanner died.

That was the way he "put her through." 
"There!" said the Deacon, "naow she'll dew!"

Do! I tell you, I rather guess
She was a wonder, and nothing less!
Colts grew horses, beards turned gray,
Deacon and deaconess dropped away,
Children and grandchildren -- where were they?
But there stood the stout old one-hoss shay
As fresh as on Lisbon-earthquake-day!

EIGHTEEN HUNDRED; -- it came and found
The Deacon's masterpiece strong and sound.
Eighteen hundred increased by ten; --
"Hahnsum kerridge" they called it then.
Eighteen hundred and twenty came; --
Running as usual; much the same.
Thirty and forty at last arrive,
And then come fifty, and FIFTY-FIVE.

 Little of all we value here
Wakes on the morn of its hundreth year
Without both feeling and looking queer.
In fact, there's nothing that keeps its youth,
So far as I know, but a tree and truth.
(This is a moral that runs at large;
Take it. -- You're welcome. -- No extra charge.)

FIRST OF NOVEMBER, -- the Earthquake-day, --
There are traces of age in the one-hoss shay,
A general flavor of mild decay,
But nothing local, as one may say.
There couldn't be, -- for the Deacon's art
Had made it so like in every part
That there wasn't a chance for one to start.
For the wheels were just as strong as the thills,
And the floor was just as strong as the sills,
And the panels just as strong as the floor,
And the whipple-tree neither less nor more,
And the back crossbar as strong as the fore,
And spring and axle and hub encore.
And yet, as a whole, it is past a doubt
In another hour it will be worn out!

First of November, 'Fifty-five!
This morning the parson takes a drive.
Now, small boys, get out of the way!
Here comes the wonderful one-horse shay,
Drawn by a rat-tailed, ewe-necked bay.
"Huddup!" said the parson. -- Off went they.

The parson was working his Sunday's text, --
Had got to fifthly, and stopped perplexed
At what the -- Moses -- was coming next.
All at once the horse stood still,
Close by the meet'n'-house on the hill.
First a shiver, and then a thrill,
Then something decidedly like a spill, --
And the parson was sitting upon a rock,
At half past nine by the meet'n-house clock, --
Just the hour of the Earthquake shock!

What do you think the parson found,
When he got up and stared around?
The poor old chaise in a heap or mound,
As if it had been to the mill and ground!
You see, of course, if you're not a dunce,
How it went to pieces all at once, --
All at once, and nothing first, --
Just as bubbles do when they burst.

End of the wonderful one-hoss shay.
    Logic is logic. That's all I say

 

 

 

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