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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 189 January 21 - 27, 2002

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This is a day book. It's not all that well edited. I try to keep this up daily, but sometimes I can't. I'll keep trying. See also the monthly COMPUTING AT CHAOS MANOR column, 4,000 - 7,000 words, depending.  (Older columns here.) For more on what this page is about, please go to the VIEW PAGE. If you have never read the explanatory material on that page, please do so.

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Monday  January 21, 2002 

Martin Luther King Day

 

I did another 2000 words of fiction and got to bed early.

When I was a young man in the Old South I was considered a hopeless left winger because I believed the law ought to be color blind. Now that I am somewhat older I am considered a hopeless right winger because I believe the law ought to be color blind.

I do believe in equal protection of the laws. I wish the law did.

 

 

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Tuesday, January 22, 2002

I have a lot of mail about the Microsoft case, most trying to convince me that I am wrong about one thing or another. I remain unconvinced.

It is over: the lawyers keep hoping for some enormous "settlement" that would give each of 100 million consumers a $3 certificate and the law firms a few hundred million, but it won't happen. Microsoft has the time, patience, money, and legal talent to drag this on until everyone has forgotten what it was about, if they ever knew in the first place.

Second, it remains true that the harm to consumers is theoretical, and the findings of harm all cite harm to competitors. There are many theories, most originating with the competitors, on why harm to competitors is equal to harm to consumers, but the law is not written that way. It is not illegal to have a monopoly; it is only illegal to use illegal means to acquire and keep it, or to have legally acquired a monopoly and use it to the harm of the general public.

Third, those who seem to know more about my thoughts and beliefs than I do have asserted that I must not believe in anti-trust. As I have said about a hundred times (go back to Mail 26, or use the site search engine on anti-trust), David McCord Wright used to say that the anti-trust act was one of the things that upset Marx's calculations on the future of the capitalist system, and I believe that thoroughly.

Fourth: the computer world changes, and often, and fast. Either Microsoft will keep up with those changes, or it will vanish. Microsoft did not get where it is by being extraordinarily clever, but the company was flexible to changes. Its competitors were arrogantly stupid and unadaptive. I am not at all convinced that I would be better off now had IBM won the war to the death started when IBM walked out of the Microsoft OS/2 conference in the presence of myself and most of the computer press and financial analysts. I am not convinced that I would be better served by arrogant stupidity any more than I am by whatever adjectives you care to use to describe Microsoft. 

Fifth: we can all do more with these machines than anyone I know including me ever thought we would be able to do with them in 2002 back in the 80's or early 90's. The mass market changed everything. Microsoft rode that wave. No one else did. For good or ill, Gates's vision was the only vision large enough. 

We come to a new phase now. We will see what happens. But the lawsuit is effectively dead and will stay that way. The main outcome is that those who started it now face a new level of tribute they must pay to the government. Microsoft went from nothing to an enormous lobby effort. Their rivals must match that. They can't really afford it, but it is they who opened that front and it is they who must now pay.

We live in interesting times.

And now Earthlink isn't working. For a few minutes an hour all is well, then it just stops working. The satellite connection is all right, but some router in the LA area isn't connecting land lines. It was off much of the afternoon, then back on, now dead again at 2010. No predictability, just one or off, and sudden.

I hate the Internet. It is less reliable than the telephone system was back in 1950. It just periodically decides to die, and you can keep trying or not to get back on.


Medal of Dishonor for America West

Joseph Foss got hassled by security guards at Phoenix's Sky Harbor International Airport last week. These days that's nothing unusual, but Foss is 86. He is a former governor of South Dakota and a retired Marine general. And what made the crack security staff for America West suspicious was the Medal of Honor he earned in 1943 for his service in the Pacific theater.

"I was held up for 45 minutes, while they decided what to do about the medal," Foss tells the Washington Times. "I almost missed my flight, as they went back and forth." Foss earned the medal for shooting down 26 enemy planes. Good thing he didn't tell the guards that, or they'd never have let him fly.

 

 

 

 

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Wednesday

I keep getting references to this:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/28/23747.html 

And then An-ders, an elder in the tribe of the sons of Kahn, dreamed a dream. And he called together all the tribe and spake unto them saying: Brothers - last night I dreamed that everyone in the world paid tribute to the god Vi Su-Albahsic. And the Mic-rosoftees did come down into the valley of Scotts, and forced all men who dwelt there to worship Vi Su-Albahsic. And the sons of Kahn gave in and became programmers like Jerripur-Nel, the scribe of Bytemag, who toileth still upon Roberta's Basic flash-card program; yea, yet he hath toiled upon it for seven and four-score years or more, as it seemeth to me.

Which is fun, but in fact  the DOS version of Roberta's Program was written in CBASIC, from Digital Research although the first version was from Stuctured Systems Group, which was Commander Gordon Eubanks who later was Symantec, and it was done a very long time ago. I started on that with a working model of the program done in regular old BASIC; the Mac Version was done in Supercard; and the Windows version was done, not by me, in Delphi, not Visual Basic at all. I wrote them to that effect, but I have had no reply or even acknowledgment that I wrote them, which reduces my respect for The Register.

BASIC and various compiled BASICS were in fact more than Good Enough for a lot of programs, and those got done a lot quicker than programs done in C. I prefer Pascal with range checking for just getting things done. But then I like languages I can read and that don't require me to simulate the compiler in my head.

There were some bad BASICS early on, but in fact it's a pretty good programming language for just making something happen fast. I wouldn't care to do 40,000 lines of BASIC but I suspect with modern computers I would have a program running sooner than anyone would get it done in C.

 

 

 

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Thursday, January 24, 2002

Sasha has made an amazing recovery. A couple of weeks ago I was certain he wouldn't last another week. Now he's eating, alert, eager to go out, and yesterday went with Niven and me to the top of the hill, about 4 miles and 1200 feet elevation change round trip. We're both stiff this morning and no wonder, but he ate all his breakfast and was begging ours.

Amazing. He's 16 which is quite old for a Husky.

 

Tonight on PBS they have a program called dot.con which is fine, but where were then when companies were being sold at IPO's when no one knew what the company did? And MSNBC and all the others were having these "analysts" touting the stocks they "analyzed" when in fact there was no analysis at all, and usually they either didn't know or didn't care what the new company did or how it might get some revenue.

Mail order dog food. Sure sounds like a winning idea.  How does one become an "analyst" anyway? Which is to say how do you get a job as a shill for a broker house which is going to make money off you so long as you buy stock, so they may have a good reason to try to get you to buy some...

 

I have the new ATI All In Wonder board, which I'll be looking at for the lead in next month's column. And I'm still turning out a couple of thousand words a day of fiction. 

And Roland found this gem on The Everquest Economy:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=294828 

I love it. One quote from the abstract: "The nominal hourly wage is about USD 3.42 per hour, and the labors of the people produce a GNP per capita somewhere between that of Russia and Bulgaria. A unit of Norrath's currency is traded on exchange markets at USD 0.0107, higher than the Yen and the Lira."

1620: Earthlink landline just died. Unable to connect to any server anywhere. This happens periodically. Bad router, bad phone lines, who knows?

But it came back at 1630, so this is just for the record. Sometimes things just go away, and not just with the satellite. And we get impatient.

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Friday, January 25, 2002

Building some new systems for the February column. I will also give the Onion of the Year in the February column.

I have a couple of inquiries.

First: I know that Pentium 4 systems are better at video editing -- Photoshop for instance -- than Pentium III and Celeron. For the rest of what we do, I don't know. I am told that there are some scientific programs with serious number crunching that one might want to run on a desktop, and that some of those have optimized compilers for Pentium 4 systems. I don't need guesses and speculations, but does anyone KNOW what programs, available now, run significantly better in Pentium 4 then Pentium III given comparable speeds (or which do, say, 3 times a well with a 2 GHz Pentium 4 than with a 1 GHz Pentium III other things being equal). I'd appreciate information: again, please, not speculations.

Second: how does one become an "analyst" for Wall Street? Again please, not speculation: does anyone know? As far as I can see one qualification is that you leave all your brains and judgment behind. Another is that you adopt the ethics of a shill or a racetrack tout.  Anyone who can seriously recommend unstable bubbles as a good buy, and continue to do so as they fall, has a decided lack of common and business sense. If I give you financial advice I can go to jail: I am not part of the licensed cult despite free speech. I was astonished to find this out. Apparently the financial advisers have a very strong union with ties to the government. But "analysts" can tout Enron stock long after anyone with sense could see there was something seriously wrong with the company, and tout stocks with ridiculous Price/Earnings as if this were a sane thing to do. So how does one get into this career? Again, I don't need speculations; I am asking for information from someone informed. I'll withhold names on request.

I've been turning out Burning Tower at better than 1,000 words a day and I expect to do the same today.

And there's important mail on the space program.

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Saturday, January 26, 2002

Garage Thermonuclear weapons? Anyone know?

 

 

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Sunday, Janyary 27, 2002

I have a lot on Pentium IV and a lot on the profession of analyst. I will probably do a special page on analysts. I'll save most of this for tomorrow.

Meanwhile there's some good stuff in today's mail.

And check out

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/26/opinion
/26KELL.html?pagewanted=print

which is Enron for Dummies and very clear.

 

 

 

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