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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 179 November 12 - 18, 2001

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Monday  November 12, 2001 COMDEX

I didn't go to Bill Gates's COMDEX speech last night, largely because I had heard him speak at the Microsoft Developer Conference a couple of weeks ago, and it was unlikely that he had anything to say I hadn't heard. I didn't think about the safety aspects beyond the fact that they were going to search people and I wasn't terribly interested in going through that. I gather it was a good talk, as usual, with some neat movies of Gates as Harry Potter fighting Steve Balmer as either Obi-Wan or Darth Vader, I forget which, with light sabers. They also showed the Tablet Computer, again, and my Compaq people tell me the plan was for Gates to hold one up made by Compaq. The tablet computer is neat, and I want one, but they won't really be available this year.

Peter Glaskowsky has his Newton, but of course that was Scully's creature and Steve Jobs killed it despite its profit potential. At Digital Focus last night Intel was showing a classroom computer that looks like the Apple e-Machine that would have been a wonderful classroom device, but the e-Machine was built on Newton technology and that had to go despite its educational value because it was built on Newton technology and no trace of the Newt could remain at Apple.  But apparently the more things Apple does wrong the harder everyone comes down on Gates and Microsoft: "the Tablet Computer has nothing that wasn't in the Newton!"  Which may be true, but it won't be long before you can actually buy a Tablet Computer and classroom computers built on that technology.

When the e-Machine came out it was introduced at a huge rally at Comdex (at The Beach, yet) and Mrs. Pournelle was really enthusiastic about its potential, but then it vanished. We'll see about the new Intel (based on Strongarm) systems.

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Here's a picture of it.

On the way here I drove by Mojave airport.

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Here's a rather depressing picture of the economy since Black September: all these are relatively new airplanes set out here in Mojave where it is dry and the only hazards are wind-blown sand to degrade the paint job. The airlines didn't need them just now...

 

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COMDEX is small this year, but there are more press than usual, many free lancers now. This was the line at Noon on Sunday. I confess I pulled rank and found an official who remembered me from times of old to retrieve my badge which had got lost in the system. Earnest Lilly stood in the line for both of us all the way to the bitter end, so I didn't cost anyone any time. After I got my badge I went into the Press Lounge to get Earnest some tea. They were just serving lunch -- something the old COMDEX never did, serve food to the Press beyond coffee and drinks. I took Earnest his tea, which couldn't possibly have taken five minutes, and when I got back to the lounge the place was bare. A steward said "The next feeding is 2:00 PM" and his implication of feeding the animals was unmistakable. It gets hungry out there.

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And here's RIM Blackberry, which I wish I had taken the trouble to get before I came here. The Blackberry was about the most useful thing I had at PC Expo and it would be more so here, but alas, I left off the arrangements until too late. Another time. They didn't have a press program for Comdex -- most of those promotions seem off this year -- but Blackberry is actually worth buying if you go to many trade shows and conventions. Best way to keep track of a crew I know of.

And enough for here. I will be filing a show report tonight for www.byte.com and two more during the week. Watch for them.


AN ALERT FROM BOB THOMPSON:

I've posted this on my page this morning, but this problem is potentially dangerous enough that it deserves an email alert.

"If you have Windows XP Home or Pro preinstalled on a computer, you need to read this sad article from Microsoft, entitled "You May Lose Data or Program Settings After Reinstalling, Repairing, or Upgrading Windows XP" (http://support.microsoft.com/support/kb/articles/Q312/3/69.ASP). The good news is that the data loss occurs only if you reinstall, repair, or upgrade Windows XP. The bad news is that if this bug bites you, your data is gone. Microsoft's only suggestion is that you recover your data from backup. This is a bad one, folks."

-- Robert Bruce Thompson mailto:thompson@ttgnet.com  http://www.ttgnet.com/rbt/thisweek.html 

I have no time to look into this, but BE WARNED!!!

And then there is breaking news.

Jerry,

Just rampant speculation on my part. Michael Moran, the firefighter who told Osama to kiss his white ass, and his family were from the Rockway Beach area where the plane crashed. I don't know much about the layout of New York, but is it a coincidence?

FOX news says that 170 of the lost firefighters came from this area.

Here's a page of firefighter's obits from the Rockaway area:

http://www.rockawave.com/News/2001/0929/Obits.html 

Brian

-- brianlane.com | nexuscomputing.com | libertynews.org | guetech.org

No data whatever. Thanks. And I have to get to COMDEX.


Apparently the Taliban has collapsed. With luck all the Taliban supporters in Pakistan will rush to their aid to fight the Mother Of All Battles.  The US ought to give them free transportation, a rifle, and 10 cartridges if they will go...


And I have just learned that Max Hunter, who built the Thor IRBM and was one of the giants of the space/missile industry, has died.

He was one of the great ones. 

That's Max with me and General Graham in the office of Vice President Quayle who was head of the National Space Council. We sold him on the DC/X which was built on time and in budget. A long time ago I fear.

Thanks to Roland for this link:

I thought you might want to have a copy of this . . .

http://gargravarr.cc.utexas.edu/ssrt/background/dcx-rollout.html 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, November 13, 2001

At Comdex.  I have filed a story, it should be up on www.byte.com soon. I fear that used up most of my time and energy.

 

The collapse of the Taliban isn't unexpected. Now comes the hard part. But the Afghan campaign is ended. Now others can be afraid. Be very afraid.

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McAffee has a neat new program that traces where hacking attempts came from. More another time but this is neat. (Not likely to be very useful, mind you, but neat and colorful...)

 

And I am off to the show floor again.


Long day. I will try to write my show report tonight. There's mail.

And the Afghan campaign, military phase, is done. It's now work for logisticians and bounty hunters -- in Afghanistan. There are other places we will need the Rangers...

 

 

 

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Wednesday, November 15, 2001

COMDEX all day and conferences at dinner, and I'm tired.

 

 

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Thursday, November 16, 2001

Going home today. Back on line tonight.

The Afghan campaign is over as a military operation. There remains much to do but it's bounty hunting (and best done by bounty hunters). The best thing we can do now is overturn some other regimes that harbored our enemies. The message is simple: if you rule a country it is very much in your interest to kill or jail everyone on your soil who plots against the US: for if you do not we will overthrow you.

I would still like to build my monuments -- see the Black September War pages -- but I doubt we will do that. Ah well.

Home safe to find a flap regarding the British magazine Bizarre, see mail.

 

 

 

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Friday, November 16, 2001

I have a ton of work to do. I can't wait to get DSL here. I am so weary of the Hughes DirecPC satellite system with endless "Page cannot be displayed " errors requiring about five refreshes.

I have written some additional materials to the "What To Do" pages of my Black September War coverage. I need to go through regular mail and pull some of that over to the mail pages there. Meanwhile, I find my What To Do section rather interesting starting from the beginning; but I have also set up a link to the new material for those who don't want to start at the beginning.

And one should not speak ill of the dead.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,60-2001396671,00.html 

But if I were going to...

And then there's this:

Poor Code Quality Contaminates Mental Models (Alertbox Oct. 2001)

"The poor quality of Microsoft Windows costs the world economy $170 billion per year in lost productivity due to crashes. This is four times Bill Gates' net worth, so we are not talking pocket change, even for him, if he were forced to cover the cost of his deeds."

 

I am entering new subscriptions that came by paper mail.

Every now and then I get subscriptions from readers who don't seem to have email addresses and read this page at the public library. Now that's devotion! 

Max Pinkerton I have no great quarrel with anything you said, and I wish your letter were an email so I could print it and comment.

parem @ tachyon.renaissance.ca I cannot seem to find a name to go with this address, nor is the address good...

 

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Saturday, November 17, 2001

I get a bunch of market newsletters, which do me no good since I don't invest in stocks of companies I write about and I don't know anything about any others; but there is a remarkable unanimity about their advice, which is that the market is about 16% undervalued, and this situation hasn't happened since before the Long Boom. Having said that, I am not sure what it means. Most "market analysts" seem about as successful as a priesthood reading chicken entrails, but like government employees there are never any consequences for getting things wrong.

So now we are to turn airport security over to the equivalent of the Post Office. Argenbright, the outfit responsible for security at Logan on September 11, is in bad shape and getting worse and people will lose their jobs. Had they been Federal Employees would anything have happened to anyone? What happened to the idiots at Waco? Who got fired? Those in charge got promoted. Now true, the promotions didn't stick because of public outcry, but the Waco survivors remain in jail, and no one was even reprimanded much less disciplined for bringing about a domestic disaster with citizens and visitors burned to death while under siege from -- Federal Employees. Law Enforcement Officials.

And yesterday one lone joker closed down an airport and nearly closed the commerce of the United States. A silly but politically correct result: except you keep wondering why. But one thing is sure, if bureaucrats are in charge they will play it safe. The purpose of the rules will be forgotten, but the RULES will prevail. That is the way of bureaucracy. "When a stupid man does something he knows is wrong, he always insists that it is his duty." So said the Centurion (Michael Rennie in the movie) in Bernard Shaw's Caesar and Cleopatra, and so says Lon Horiuchi, and so say they all...

So now we are to be safer with Federal Employees in charge. At least they didn't put Federal Employees in charge of flying the airplanes -- although they don't trust the pilots with weapons. 

Congress has become a focus group and not a lot more. The media say the American people want Federal Security through Federal Employees: they want the Post Office and the Hostage Rescue Team to combine to run all the airports. And that is what we will get. Happy flying.

What comes after Afghanistan? 

I see that the Germans and French are rushing to get troops in there so they can be part of The Great Game. 

Let them: what we should do is invest what that would cost in hemispheric energy independence. Afghanistan remains a quagmire. We won so quickly precisely because we do not want or need a hand in The Great Game. Nor do we really need to be involved in intrigues in which every one of our allies has a different interest and a different stake. 

If there is one way we can guarantee problems with both the British and the Russians, it is through continued American involvement in the Hindu Kush and the Khyber Pass...


Roland notes http://www.aerienetworks.com/ricochet.html with the comment "We'll see." And there is more on communications in Las Vegas over in mail.

 

 

 

 

 

If you are not familiar with the Claude Raines/Vivian Leigh movie Caesar and Cleopatra, you ought to be. It's very faithful to the Shaw play, and this was Shaw at his best, not being politically correct and catering to his Stalinist friends. Shaw at his best is very good indeed, and Raines is such a perfect Caesar, a man with human failings who could inspire his troops and become master of the Roman world, that it is hard to imagine anyone else in the role. Shaw's Caesar, unlike Shakespeare's, is utterly believable as a leader men would die for. I bought my copy of the movie from Amazon.

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Sunday, November 18, 2001

I missed the meteorites. I hope you all saw them. Roberta didn't feel up to going to the desert, and although the people who run Mount Wilson are old friends, I didn't feel up to driving up there either. I don't suppose I'll live to see the next big one, but I did see the one in the 60's.

Harry Potter has opened with a well deserved Bang! and I can't wait to see it. When Star Wars opened they had special screenings for SF writers, but nothing on this that I saw. Oh well.

And the LOSCON which is the official SF Convention of the Los Angeles Science Fantasy Society takes place Friday through Sunday next week. I'll be on a couple of panels and signing some books there. It's at the Burbank Airport Hilton. 

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