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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 177 October 29 - November 4, 2001

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Monday  October 29, 2001

There is a very great deal of interesting stuff in yesterday's View and Mail. This includes Microsoft's lamebrain thesaurus, exceeded in its stupidity only by the StarOffice Thesaurus, and an elegant and free solution to the problem.

I am hard at work on the column/feature for the new paper edition of BYTE. It will be on the theme of the book, distributed computing, and some of what I learned at recent conferences on that, as well as a short picture of the history of the concept.


Over in another place I got into a discussion about the sources of the anthrax. In the course of it someone said:

New Scientist's web site reports that the anthrax particles in the Daschle >letter have a size distribution that indicates they were processed by the >American weaponization process, not the ones used in Iraq or the Soviet >Union. See http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99991490 

and someone else said

>The people who've made up their minds that it's Iraqis And Nobody Else are going to scream "Disinformation!" at the top of their lungs.

I passed that by, but then I got to thinking, and I composed a reply, which, on reflection, belongs over here:

 

Who is likely to need disinformation?

The New Scientist article says nothing new and quotes no one; it speculates although giving the appearance of news.

Last night on TV the former head of the Iraqi bioweapons group said they never managed to make weapons grade powdered anthrax. The UNSCOM former chief investigator said they did. Which do you believe?

I know that Iraq has lots of reasons to want us to believe this stuff did not come from Iraq. I presume the US has reasons not to want it to look as if security was so lax that some of this stuff got out into the world. And Russia has a heck of a lot of reason to not be suspected.

If there is NOT disinformation flowing about, that would be astonishing, given the motivations of everyone concerned.

We know this much: the USSR developed a weapons grade anthrax because it killed somewhere between 50 and a couple of hundred people in an accident near Ekaterinberg (then Sverdlovsk). We suspect the US had some since we seem to have gone into production of about a metric ton a year for a couple of years before destroying the lot, and we probably wouldn't have produced any that wasn't going to be effective. If we know anything about the technical details of either the US or the USSR weapons -- particle size, milling methods, etc. -- I have seen no reliable reports, and I certainly don't know those things. They are likely to remain highly classified.

We don't know what the Iraqis managed, but we can say this: if they couldn't produce weapons quality anthrax then it is EXCEEDINGLY unlikely that a small group of any political persuasion from SDS Weathermen to Aryan Nation could have done so: the resources of Iraq may be small in comparison to the US or USSR but they are very large compared to all but a few major companies, and enormous compared to fever swamp political groups operating in hiding from their own government.

IF it is easy to produce than perhaps anyone could have done it, although it would not be likely to be done in the few days from 9-11 to its release; but in that case, the New Scientist argument isn't much use since if it's easy to do we can't make much inference from it. If, as seems likely, it's hard to do, then again, we know of only three possible sources, US, Iraq, and former USSR.

Of those the US is least likely simply because we're pretty competent, and there have never been rumors of US anthrax for sale or falling into unauthorized hands. (I hate the very phrase US anthrax; I think there were far better ways to deter its use than making that stuff. But that's me personally speaking.) It's possible that some leaked out of the labs, but it's not that likely.

The former USSR is leaky, their security is bad, and they are known to have made quantities of weapons grade stuff. If it leaked it could go to anyone with money. So far as I know there have been no rumors of USSR Anthrax on the market. Still, it's more probable that it came from the former USSR than the USA, no matter who ended up with it.

If Iraq made it, we know there were contacts between the 9-11 agents and Iraqi intelligence, for what purpose we do not know. We know Iraq is not a monolith and that agents within Iraq may hold Wahhabi sentiments (which would not endear them to the Iraqi regime): the probability of their passing out samples to their friends is not all that high, but certainly not zero, and the probability that the stuff came from Iraq seems higher than of the other two. That's a subjective assessment.

But the New Scientist article doesn't say very much to me one way or the other, and I would very much expect there to be a very great deal of misinformation and disinformation floating about in any case. Everyone involved has good reason to make up stories and spread confusion.

In any event I really would like to see a better source than New Scientist.

In summary:

Stealing a stash from the old US arsenal may have been possible, but having it around, waiting for an opportunity like this, argues a patience few political groups would have. Even if it proves to be a stolen American stash, I would direct efforts to finding out who wanted to sell the stuff, and who they sold it to, before concluding that this was the work of some domestic group.

It takes a fair amount of twisted to come up with the scheme that seems to be becoming popular now, that some "right wing" (whatever that means: right wing usually favors strong government) group had a stash, held on to it for years, never used it, and suddenly rushed to use it after 9-11.

Now it's certainly possible that some nut kept a bottle of the stuff in his freezer, half forgotten (and hoping that his kids didn't get it out and serve it as tapioca pudding) and remembered it after 9-11 and decided to galvanize the US into action by going to Florida with some of it and then New Jersey with more and mailing it about, but that's a pretty far fetched hypothesis compared to an organization: and of the organizations, which is the most likely?

I'm willing to be convinced. If it can be traced to a small stash by a domestic group the problem is a lot easier to solve than if it is an effort by a state sponsored outfit. But I suspect a lot more resources than any given nut group is involved. And I do hope the FBI is more competent than it wants us to think it is just now.

 

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, October 30, 2001

Back home again. Two columns due. 

And we have more anthrax. Still pinpricks. Not a death of a thousand cuts, more a thousand scratches. The strategy here is not easily discerned, and now they think there are two kinds of anthrax involved, one definitely military, the other more amateurish as if it were cultured from the military grade then hand ground. 

I have not enough data to speculate.

Query: when I go off on a trip I simply copy Outlook.PST over to the computer I am taking, then copy it back to the master system when I return. This keeps mail up to date, but I have used Outlook to look at newsgroups (I only look at a couple, all closed) and apparently Outlook actually makes use of Outlook Express: when I come back everything I have seen is back again as unread. Where does Outlook Express store this stuff so I can transfer the file that knows what has and has not been read?

>Where does Outlook Express store this stuff so I can transfer the file that knows what has and has >not been read?

Usually: C:\Windows\Application Data\Microsoft\Outlook Express

Chuck Ruthroff

Thanks. My readers know everything.

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Wednesday, All Hallows eve, 2001

Had to take the Explorer to the agency for its checkup and maintenance, and to have the Firestone Wilderness tires replaced. I have had no problems with those tires, but Ford is offering free replacements, and more or less insisting I take the offer.

That has put me way behind, but coming back on the bus -- which works very well at least along Ventura Blvd. -- I made some notes on an essay about where we are going, and there is also some mail that gets my thoughts going.

One thing that must not happen: during the Cold War the liberals exacted an enormous domestic program as the price for cooperation against the common enemy. I see signs of that happening anew. For instance, the courageous Congress, having run away from the anthrax scare, has not passed the military appropriations bill. This means no promotions to those being sent over. Re-enlistment bonuses are not being paid. Apparently the holdup has to do with domestic political issues, and the military pay bill is being held for ransom over those issues.

To which I can only say, SHAME.

Much strategic thought in MAIL.

And you had better have a look at this:

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1003-200-7720534.html 

There's a new worm out there.


The quote for the day is from Mark Twain:

"God created the Idiot for practice. Then He created the School Board."

Regarding my "Award", see Mail; it turned out to be interesting.

I have installed "Antaeus Rising" but it doesn't work very well. Anyone know if there is a patch, and if so where I can get it?

Never mind. I got it working. The premise doesn't look too bad, but the interface is beyond my abilities (actually it requires that I spend more time learning how to control things than I think worth the effort). Some nice graphics, but the rest of it is silly. I never got past the first tutorial: I couldn't drive the silly harvester thing well enough to make it worth while. Oh. well.

And Roland says don't miss the Jack-o-Linux

http://www.erickson.stfrancisville.com/pumpkin/index2.htm 

Whether the west knows everything can perhaps be debated:

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:z_T3Nt1_BKU:www.newstatesman.co.uk/200110290021.htm 

I hate places that insist on really long URL's as if they never had any new ideas...

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, All Saints Day, 2001

Well, that fake news award turns out not to have been a joke: apparently everyone who visits that site generates a message to me. Over 300 from fakednews.com in my mail box this morning. Maybe there is some other thing generating those messages. I don't know.

Is there any way to close that thing down? This is more than a nuisance. I have generated a rule that will prevent it from doing more harm other than choking bandwidth, but surely the world doesn't need a thing like this? Hundreds of emails, from one joke site?  That's a worm, and is becoming a denial of services attack.

I don't know who to report it to. It's not a really serious problem, but it could become one if it keeps up.

The solution to the Administrator problem with Nero is upgrading Nero: see mail.


Thanks to all of you who have recently subscribed or renewed subscriptions. I am about to send out a mailing to all currently enrolled subscribers: if you do NOT get it, and you are a subscriber, please let me know (and put something to that effect in the header of the mail to me). I am about to purge the list of "bad" mail addresses, to make life easier on the mailing system.

 

I have GOT to get past Earthlink as a way to send mail. I try to send, the system trundles for 5 minutes, then says it can't accept the list because one user isn't identifiable or was rejected. I remove that one. I send again. It does that again. One at a time. Forever.

I really used to like Earthlink, but it is becoming a pain to use, and for no reason.

 

Robbie Walker, Terry Stickel and Richard Holm, your mail is rejected by your servers. As for the other subscribers I am still fighting Earthlink to get it to send anything to any of you. It times out when it is not rejecting. 

I will now try through the satellite system, since Earthlink seems to have lost the ability to send to a list through the landline. In a couple of months we will have DSL here and I can use something else. Until then I guess it just must be endured.

Meanwhile, satellite or landline, and chopping my mail list into small bits. Earthlink simply cannot handle it. It did for years, but not it simply will not do it.  I will I guess have to come up with a real mailer, although the lack of a real IP address with Hughes Direct PC probably will prevent it. I cannot recommend DirectPC satellite service (Roland told me I would hate it.  I am not all that happy with Earthlink any more either.

But I cannot send mail to my subscribers, even if I chop the list into bits. Interesting. The solution is a real ISP when I get DSL or cable modem. I suppose that will be a pain too. The Internet seems to specialize in that.

By chopping the list into really tiny bits I am getting some of the list sent, but it takes forever. Whatever has happened to Earthlink, it is not good.


parem@tachyon you are no longer in existence?

In any event, Earthlink has clearly fixed something that didn't used to be broken, and the result is pretty grim for anyone trying to use Earthlink and Outlook to manage a moderate sized mailing list. I'll be changing over when I get the opportunity. I know that Outlook isn't really the right tool for mailing lists, but then I don't mail all that much, and it works ok for most -- or did, for a couple of years.

But Earthlink mail is impossible today. It takes forever to send anything, and apparently it is doing some kind of checking of each address as it goes out. It has not done that before, I think: that is, this used to work. So I do not know what is happening.


What will happen is that I will build the subscriber data base in to an access data base, and feed that into better mail software: I have I guess gone past Outlook. Although, interestingly, it worked until recently. Now I can understand that perhaps the subscription list grew too great, but I chopped it in half: neither half would send thr0ugh Earthlink as it once did the entire list. So something there has changed too.

Actually, at some point I suppose I am going to have to bite a number of bullets and see just how much Linux I can get going: the attraction of Microsoft is "it just works" and lately that seems less the case. Now I have to fuss with it to make it work.

If I have to fuss with something I may as well be fussing with something that, once the problem is solved, I won't have to fuss with it again.

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Friday, November 2, 2001

There are several good suggestions for my mail problems over in MAIL. I suspect none of them will work here, but we will see.

The problem is simple: my connection to the Internet is through Earthlink. Pair provides simple connection services, but one of them is not mailing a list through them, or if it is I haven't figured that one out, so all my outgoing mail goes out through Earthlink. Earthlink sensibly requires you to have an Earthlink account and be logged on as an Earthlink user in order to mail through them, and that's fine by me. It prevents spammers from using them as a remailer service.

For years Earthlink had a system under which, if you sent mail to a list, the addresses were checked -- this takes time but OK, I can live with that -- and if some number of names on the list was bad, the list was rejected. This too was a spam prevention device to keep people from signing up for an Earthlink account, spamming for a while, and shutting down the account or using it for spam until Earthlink shut down the account. That was inconvenient, and I often wondered why they didn't flag long time accounts for different treatment, but I could live with it. The number of rejects before the list was rejected wasn't public, but it seemed to be around 9 or so. I didn't like that much but I could live with it.

If I had a bunch of bad addresses -- largely people who subscribed and then changed their mail address, but some with full mail boxes or other temporary problems -- I might get a mailing to the entire list rejected, but I could break it in half and the halves would go out, and meanwhile I'd get feedback to let me eliminate the bad addresses or get mail on changing them.

Recently Earthlink seems to have changed its policy: if there is one bad address in a list the list is dumped. I don't know how any mail program can handle that except for those that send one at a time, and I am not at all sure I have the bandwidth for that.

Of course it may be that Earthlink has once again oversold its service and no longer can handle the number of customers it has generated, and is hiding the fact that service is awful for everyone.

What that means, I think, is that when I get DSL and/or cable modem, will get a different ISP provider with more reasonable rules for long time customers. I appreciate Earthlink's attempts to keep spam down, but this is I think more than they need to do.

It may be there is a simple solution, but for the moment, understand that whether I connect through modem or the satellite I am logged on to Earthlink as an Earthlink user, and I think that means all my mail has to go through them, or am I making a fundamental mistake? Is there a way to send PAST Earthlink direct to the Internet using software hosted here either on a Linux box or a Windows 2000 box?  

I admit confusion. I am also confident I have expert readers who can clear this up in a moment. 

Please don't speculate: just now I need to hear from people who KNOW. I suspect that won't take long.


 

I find that I probably can't use any mail list software through Earthlink, which seems determined to "prevent spam" but makes no distinction between customers of many years' standing and someone who is still using free hours on a new account.  If there is a way, they haven't told me yet.  In fewer than 90 days I will have cable modem and DSL, and I can look to a new ISP provider. I'll probably keep the Earthlink account, but perhaps not.

And from the mail I am getting the only real solution to my problem is to use a commercial mailing list service if I want to keep Earthlink. That may be expensive. So what I will probably do is wait until I get straight DSL and use a Linux solution to the problem bypassing Earthlink entirely.  We're moving more and more to Linux here anyway...


On another score, if you find electronic piracy sites, please notify

epiracy@sfwa.org 

It's a bit like trying to kill the hydra, and at the moment electronic copies of books don't sell enough copies to be important, but I think things are changing. The Tablet Computer is about as convenient for reading books as a hardbound book, and they'll be out next year.

 

 

 

 

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Saturday, November 3, 2001

Much adoo about email services, mostly over in mail. I understand the problem, now to figure a fix.

Late: I may have found two or three fixes. I am testing one right now; a more drastic fix will be to go with the mail service that Pair.Com provides, sort of, to people whose web sites are hosted there.

I also have the satellite system working again (that difficulty was independent of the mail problem): that story goes in the column.

I also think I know what needs to be done about/with/for Microsoft. That goes in the column too.

 

 

 

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Sunday, November 4, 2001

I managed to get out a mailing. If you subscribe and did not get it, check the badmail page. If you are not there, check to see that you get ANY mail: I had a number returned because of full mailboxes, and I did not put those names on the badmail page.

If you didn't get it and you believe you are a subscriber, please tell me, including when and how you subscribed. I hope to clean up this list and go to a new method of mail list maintenance.

Later this afternoon I will finish a short essay on a war strategy for the republic. It will probably be the lead for Monday's View. Now back to my deadlines.

Congress got around to passing the military pay bill. Finally. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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