| This week: | Monday September
5, 2005
See last week's weekend mail for letters from Phillip on the Navy in the Gulf of Mexico Following is from my oldest son Alex in response to correspondence on how the response to the Gulf of Mexico crisis response was not well handled: Hmm. Well. "Well." Certainly not well-handled as compared to what we'd like. But: Compared to building the canals high enough, and compartmentalize the city enough, that the damage would have been limited? Compared to having NO evacuated before the hurricane hit? Compared to having the state, parish and city officials follow their own emergency plan? Compared to federalizing the response on Saturday the 28th? (Remember, the State has to ask before the Feds can move in. Few talking-heads seem to know this.) Compared to having the Governor call out the LA Guard on Sunday...Monday... umm... before Wednesday? Compared to not having the 17th Street and Industrial Canals collapse and scour? Compared to not having the NOPD completely collapse? Compared to being compelled to restore order in the city before establishing a post-flood evacuation? All those bad things happened. So: Compared to reality? Compared to reality, the Federal response has been both wretched and nothing short of awesome. Wretched at the top, and awesome below that. Wretched: Lack of coordination at the top, the know-nothing head of FEMA, the lack of immediate acceptance of non-Federal (and foreign) support, et very cetera. Many died unnecessarily. More will still. Awesome: The early repair (24 hours before the already optimistic deadline) of the 17th Street canal, the air bridges, the movement of displaced persons, the medical evacuation, the beginning of restoration of infrastructure in N.O., etc. A quarter million people moved to TX in four days. With help, another quarter mil moved to other places. Without a single NO City or NO school bus usable. 10,000 rescues--TEN THOUSAND--by the Coast Guard alone, with one (non-fatal) helo crash. So: if you're complaining that not enough support moved quickly enough, you're right--but considering where they had to start from, the Feds (including the much-hated FEMA) performed amazingly. And everyone, State or Feds, absorbed a doubling (and then another doubling) of the number of evacuees, WITHOUT the sort of operational paralysis that such insane changes of condition usually bring. My opinion: The actions of those same Feds saved thousands of lives, up to (and maybe including) the FEMA Region VI director, Ron Castleman. Complain away; it's your right. We Should Do Better. But know: Learning how to deal with emergency response ALWAYS builds lessons on the backs of the dead. And if you think you can do better--FEMA is hiring. --Alex My own view is expressed in the essay I just wrote, but Alex, who is involved in the California emergency response teams (as a volunteer, not paid) makes good points. My own view is that restoring the old Office of Civil Defense, with local organizations of both volunteers and professionals, with emergency militia powers and responsibilities at the discretion of the governor, makes a very great deal more sense; but it will take a long time to build a proper organization. We have the technology. We can do it. What we must end is the attitude that you can only trust professionals hired and paid for. Bureaucracy is the answer to many problems, like dog catching and enforcement of needful regulations. Bureaucracy is almost NEVER the proper response to emergencies and unforeseen situations. The Military is a form of bureaucracy but one with remedies: there is no tenure, and command changes can be made quickly. We cannot afford, nor would we want, large military establishments everywhere. We need them as garrisons in many places to be the core of a rapid response to disasters; but the primary responsibility for your neighbor is your burden, and the best response to local emergencies is local Civil Defense organizations, volunteers trained and ready, old goons and biddies who like playing soldier and pretending to be part of a militia -- until they are needed. And then they become heroes. I agree completely with Alex. I've grown weary of listening to Nagin complain, when he is more responsible than anyone for the failed evacuation and miserable conditions of those left in NO after Katrina struck. Barbara finally got through to a good friend of ours in Jackson, MI on Thursday. As distant as Jackson is from the catastrophic damage caused by Katrina, Allison told us she was barely able to get to the hospital where she works. There was no power, no water, no gasoline available, and people were shooting at each other over water and gasoline. Most of the major roads were still blocked by trees and debris, and hardly anything was able to move. And that's in Jackson. I can't imagine what it must be like in NO itself and the immediate surrounding area. If there's blame to be allocated, I think Nagin deserves much of it. He could and should have commandeered the NO city buses and school buses and gotten as many of those people as far north as he could have done. That city should have been a ghost town when Katrina hit. Had he taken even minimal steps to evacuate those who didn't have their own transportation, the situation in NO would have been a lot more manageable. And what about emergency stocks of food and water? I almost choked when I watched Nagin tell people to carry five days' worth of food and water to the Superdome. Does the man have any idea how much that weighs? How could he designate the Superdome a shelter of last resort and make absolutely no provision for food or water for the thousands of people that he'd left with that as their only option? As far as I've heard, the NO emergency management people didn't even think to provide chlorine bleach and trash bags for emergency toilets. I'm not defending FEMA, although I'm sure their people on the ground were doing their absolute best. But comparing a CNN news crew flitting in on their helicopters, shooting some footage, and then flitting out again to the resources needed to move meaningful amounts of aid to those thousands who were stranded in NO isn't a useful comparison. -- Robert Bruce Thompson In War everything is very simple but the simplest things are very difficult. It is called friction and Clausewitz wrote meaningfully of it. And disaster response is like to military actions, which is why it used to be CIVIL DEFENSE and local rather than FEMA and professional and a job for bureaucrats. Subject: Local lack of preparation in New Orleans I think FEMA guidelines call for localities to be capable of handling the first 72 to 96 hours of a disaster; the Feds commit to being there no earlier than 3 days after the disaster hits. The hurricane hit on Monday and the feds were arriving Thursday and Friday, right on schedule. New Orleans was not prepared to last three minutes, let alone three days. I wonder how Los Angeles or Chicago would have fared. I suppose you can argue that the feds had several days' warning before the storm even hit, and they should have been ready to move in. But still, a city ought to be able to hold itself together for 3 days. And a family ought to be able to survive without any help for 3 days after a disaster (assuming no injuries). Probably many of the ones left in the New Orleans city center were those on the left end of the foresight bell curve, though; for them, as well as for the sick or disabled who couldn't get out, the city should have had a real plan and resources saved up. Steve Setzer Alas, FEMA uses the we are trained professionals trust us approach. The old civil Defense system made it clear who was primarily responsible. And see below. ============ From Lt. Commander Phillip Pournelle Early today we drove out to USNS Arctic, tied up to her and offloaded supplies to her. These were the stores we took on in Pensacola last night. Arctic is unable to enter Pensacola due to the obstructions I wrote about earlier. We'll continue these operations for a while. The Captain likes to remind people we are "Fast and Versatile." He's very right Phil Phillip Pournelle Lt CDR USN The most important asset of all on this ship... and the ship dockside. More reports and photographs from Phillip in his long report below. =========== Subject: FEMA, Hurricanes, and Deployed Troops Dear Dr. Pournelle: While I agree with your assessment of Civil Defense, FEMA usually takes this long to respond to major hurricanes. In 1989, after Hugo pummilled the Carolinas, Governor Campbell of South Carolina complained about the slow Federal response. FEMA was also this slow in 1992 following Andrew. What we are seeing isn't the effect of troops deployed overseas, it's how FEMA usually reacts to major hurricanes. The only difference this time is that because of the magnitude of the disaster, the eyes of the entire world is focused on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, and is paying closer attention to what's going on. FEMA can be great when it get's going, but it always seems to take them several days to react to hurricanes. Obviously there's much that can be done better. It's hard to imagine how it could be done worse. The City of New Orleans needs to ask itself why it never came up with a full evacuation plan. The State of Louisiana needs to ask why the Governor didn't activate the National Guard on the Friday before Katrina struck, when it first became apparent that it could strike New Orleans. FEMA needs to ask why it takes several days for them to get their act together every time a major hurricane strikes. And from what I've seen during disasters, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if some petty officials were trying to swing their weight around and gummed up the works in the process. I've seen that happen before, except that the right people involved said "forget you" and did what needed to be done. Could have, would have, should have. I'm sure all involved will be pointing their fingers at each other long before the water is drained from New Orleans. Frankly the lack of improversation by all involved is dumbfounding. Dumptrucks and high-bodied trucks can carry people as well as buses; Citizens can be deputized as a police force multiplier; CB radios from the local electronics store can provide communications if satellite radios are not available; and so forth and so on. We haven't even paid much attention to the Gulf Coast yet. As I'm sure you're hearing from your source on the spot, damage extended up through at least half of Mississippi. We're only hearing a small bit of the flustration with a slow FEMA response from there, about as much as we usually hear following major hurricanes. The most obvious lesson from all this, as you have already pointed out, is that disaster response needs to be locally based. That point needs to be driven home to states and municipalities, if the tragedy of Katrina hasn't already done so. The Federal government needs a rapid reaction force to respond to disasters, and needs to plan for them in the same way it planed for a Soviet grab on Western Europe in the days of the Cold War. States have the legal authority (the exact part of the U.S. Code escapes me at the moment) to maintain a state defense force seperate from the National Guard, and perhaps the states should take a serious look in using it to provide muscle during major disasters. States should plan on dealing with disasters by themselves. If the Federal government can step in and help, fine and dandy, but if not, it doesn't need to be caught flat-footed. If there's any good that comes out of all this, maybe it will be that all levels of government will start to take disaster response seriously. Kevin J Cheek ================ New Orleans will be rebuilt http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive/050903-geopolitics_katrina.php I know that you've had Stratfor links before, but I don't know whether you read it regularly. The essay linked above was pasted into one of my usenet forums, and it makes it clear why such a large city was built in such an absurd location, two stories below sea level and even more below the river level. We hear a lot about oil and Louisiana, but nothing about this year's agricultural exports without the nation's largest port. Greg Goss ============================= Jerry. I don't buy this comment about not having enough troops to handle the hurricane disaster because of Iraq. One comment I read on the Free Republic Website said that only 10% of our current "National Guard" troops are in Iraq. The rest of the Iraq troops are Regular "volunteer" Army. That would leave 90% of the American National Guard available to be used for such disasters. I cannot verify the percentages, but I am sure that our total National Guard force IS NOT unavailabe, as you imply. They weren't there faster because of the LAW that says who, when, and how they may be legally employed. A careful reading shows that although there was some confusion, it was the officials of LA that were faulty here. If Bush had invaded with troops before the Governor requested it, it would have been an "invasion", and an impeacheable offense that hasn't been done since the Civil War. Bush has failed to stop our government from becoming larger, and has done many things I disagree with. But the "false witness testimony" being presented by our, in my opinion, Bushophobic, communistically inspired propaganda type Main Stream Media is absolutely nauseating. The other implication would be that we had "spent" all of the money that we might need for the disaster elsewhere. Jerry, I love your analysis of most things, but it was you who pointed out the fallacies of "Voodoo Economics." Even you should know that "Washington" economics is not dependent on reality. If Washington really, really wants money for anything, it will appear. PERIOD. For example, money is ALWAYS there for a war (not just Viet Nam, Iraq, or Korea). The Levies broke because of the recalcitrance of NGO's, Environmentalists, Democrats in congress, and the absolute corruption of officials in LA over a long term period who refused to, or diverted that money. Money not spent in one or another place does not mean that someone intentionally did that to destroy a city. Shame on you. Our troops in Iraq has nothing to do with "Mabel" who is still sitting in her flooded house because she knows that every cop in N.O. is a crook and wanted to keep her stuff. AND SHE IS STILL REFUSING TO LEAVE TODAY, WHEN A NEWSCASTER INTERVEIWED HER! It is a disaster. It doesn't help when people like George Noory present shows that state that all this is part of a "weather war" where hurricanes are being directed at American cities. It feeds in to the "unreality" of "somehow, Bush did it." Nonsense, but to much of our uneducated American public, who knows how much this will fan the flames of hatred. I am sorry to come down on you. I am unhappy that we are stuck in Iraq, and do not know what the final results may be. But I am more unhappy that I think that, because Americans have turned away from the basic rules that are necessary for survival, and thus is doomed to die. I mean that once "false witness testimony" is accepted in any society, it is a poison that cannot be reversed, and that society dies. Also, the "rule" that "if you don't kill me, then I won't kill you" is being voided, and the value of human life is now nothing, whether you are disabled (Schiavo), unborn (abortion), or poor (the N.O. mayor not using busses for the poor). Not to mention the shooting at rescuers. And of course, the total abrogation of "private property" by our "make it up as you go along supremes." Sorry Jerry. America may be over. But, NOT because of our troops in Iraq. If you think Bush is bad in a disaster, can't you just see every journalists lips firmly planted on a democrat Presidents "butt" as he does absolutely nothing but "makes a great speech" about how he "feels our pain." Then he would hire Sandy Berger to hide any "Levee" papers, and Richard Clarke to "cover up and make a video" of how the Republicans broke the levee's. Republicans may be bad. Democrats are even worse. Thus endenth my rant. PUBLIUS II
===================== IT would be easier to reply if I were not so irritated at your needlessly contentious and hostile attitude. Rational debate has no need of such silliness. I was, in my haste, perhaps unclear: The overseas war absorbed, used up, tired out, a Lot of our READY forces, the very ones we need now, leaving as to Call up the secondary reserves, both on state and national levels. And, I will admit, I had not then given sufficient consideration to the thorough destruction of the old Civil Defense organizations I knew. My youngest son has just reminded me that when I was a Scoutmaster we were tied in to Civil Defense and Emergency Preparedness. He was involved in emergency preparedness for earthquakes and flooding. You have mastered the art of saying things I have said (some of them) in a way that makes me want to abandon my own positions. Congratulations. In any event we have not totally abandoned private property. The Court has said that state Law prevails over Federal judiciary in an important decision on property. Perhaps making people take their States and state law seriously is a step on the return path? It does not abandon the notion of private property, and it may be a return to sanity from the Federal Urban Renewal bulldozer. Most such rights are better arranged and protected by the states, for what the Feds give and protect the Feds may instantly take away. As to this attempt to turn my analysis of structural failure into a partisan accusation, I have many such letters from both sides and I reject them all. The Civil defense defects are structural and partisan only in that they stem from The Cold War Liberal rejection of the whole notion of Civil Defense. Bush didn't kill Civil Defense because it was dead when he got into office. Neither did Clinton. Neither Party wants or wanted to change from the FEMA centralistic philosophy to one of local Civil Defense organizations as a local militia with federal help in training to act in emergencies. Trust us said FEMA. We are trained professionals. Don't try This as home. Well, we trusted them. ======= Subject: Disasters big and small It was clear to everyone who looked at the situation that if no provision were made, the poor of New Orleans would suffer grievously in a major hurricane. This was said repeatedly, for years. Nothing was done. I think this inaction is symptomatic of a larger pattern. America is a nation that has largely stopped really believing its myths. The "Great Society" to be created by winning a "War on Poverty," the vision of another generation of leaders, now seems an incomprehensible failure. One can argue methods, by my point is that now we can hardly imagine anyone even thinking they could actually realize such a ‘big idea.’ The now-pervasive cynicism and complacency mean that problems that could and should be solved are ignored. The result is obvious with Katrina, but there are thousands of individual-scale disasters in the U.S. every day, disasters of crime, poverty, domestic violence, economic decline, dysfunctional schools, and breakdowns of medical and other systems. These disasters are hidden and ignored, the same way the vulnerability of New Orleans' poor to flooding was ignored. America cannot be sustained, as America, by the achievements of a relatively small stratum of technical/managerial elites, while ever-larger swaths of the population become ever-more marginalized and underserved. We need a vision of rebuilding the nation for all our citizens. Perhaps we can find it in the way we rebuild the region destroyed by a hurricane. Mike Juergens mjcom99@hotmail.com Hurrah! = Subject: Apologists -- Dear Dr. Pournelle: I was never one to believe in Original Sin, but after witnessing the barbarity of the scum of New Orleans -- not the unfortunates left homeless, but the looters and snipers -- I have to think that man is, indeed, born flawed. For ever saint and hero that arose in this crisis, there are a thousand who pluck a the wounded, figuratively cutting off fingers for the rings of dying. Those who scavanged for the necessities of life can almost be forgiven, but those who raised the black flag and those who shot at rescue workers deserve no excuse and only punishment. Which brings me to the point of the e-mail. On Saturday, on NPR, Daniel Schorr, apologizing or the looting or shooting stated: that's "what happens, I suppose, when you have people desperate at the same time a lack of uniformed authority or anything to deter them..." So according to Mr. Schorr, the only thing between being a human and being an animal who shoots at rescue workers is the presence of a cop. Law means nothing. Morality means nothing. The only thing that keeps the jackals at bay are uniforms and guns. What does that say for Americans? Another apologist, Harry Conick, Jr., was recorded as saying that if he were in such a situation that he might be looting as well. Funny how Mr. Conick can get to what was his home town when supplies are having a hard time. I wonder how much food, water, and relief supplies Mr. Conick brought with him. I expect to hear how he is now shoveling muck from the streets. Yeah, I'll hold my breath. Pete Nofel I would make The correction that those who scavenged for necessities need no forgiveness; otherwise, yes, indeed. ========
Most people here in England seem to be bemused watching events in America. Talk about chickens coming home to roost! Have you read John McPhee's The Control of Nature <http://www.johnmcphee.com/controlofnature.htm>? It's extremely relevant to events, as is Jared Diamond's <http://149.142.237.180/faculty/diamond.htm> Collapse : How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive <http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/ obidos/ASIN/0713992867/qid=1125910487/sr=2-1/ ref=sr_2_11_1/026-8569031-0446041> . Really, we can't afford a ninety- day planning horizon for major disasters. America has our prayers. BBC article on criminals adapting to ID cards: <http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 1/hi/sci/tech/4213848.stm> . Problems with 'chip and pin' <http:// money.guardian.co.uk/scamsandfraud/story/0,13802,1562682,00.html> , see also <http://www.chipandspin.co.uk/> "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen": Labour complaints about grilling in speech by BBC commentor, Humphrys, <http://media.guardian.co.uk/site/story/0,14173,1562874,00.html> . Durham Cathedral story <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wear/ 4211426.stm> -- "The data (or the marks when teaching) are sacrosanct--they tell us what actually happened." Harry Erwin, PhD http://osiris.sunderland.ac.uk/~cs0her Well, the decision to Live there is local and responsibility is local. I live in an earthquake area, There are dangers. Should New York pay? Bit we have stopped thinking thus way. Federal caused problems are federal responsibility. Local problems may have National implications.
======== http://www.ishkabible.com/archives/2005/09/arts_and_crafts.html September 04, 2005 Arts and Crafts in pre-calculus ... and law school JoAnne Jacobs has a depressing piece about make-work in high school: My niece started her junior year at a highly rated California high school. For her honor pre-calculus class, she was assigned to do a collage about herself. But it gets worse ... a commenter, Amber Taylor, says "Our first assignment at Harvard Law School was to make a collage." Here's Amber's collage. Ay caramba! No judge that I know of requires collages in lieu of opening motions, briefs, and statements ... yet ... the students in Amber's class won't start becoming judges for a few years ... Bailiff: All Rise, The United States District Court of the Southwestern District of Arizona is now in session, the honorable Homer Simpson presiding. Judge Simpson: Good morning. Before we can start what looks to be an interesting trial ... Bailiff, are there any more of those chocolate glazed donuts? Bring me a couple please ... Uh, where was I? Oh yes. Counsel, there is a preliminary matter that must be taken care of. You have failed to submit your opening collages. If you need help, please see Lisa or Maggie. The perfect court case for opening collages ... or cartoons ... is COYOTE V. ACME PRODUCTS CORP. Update: Prof. Reynolds, thanks for the link. ---- this blog talks about the use of collage in the study of calculus and law in both k-12 and higher-ed. sadly, i'm not making this up. i found the link on instapundit.com , one of my faves. enjoy the holiday! === Jay R. Larsen MBA, CNE, MCP Just to Show old problems continue. ==================== Re : "And it does appear that "full faith and credence" is being given to the marriage. The legality of the marriage is not in question. But the criminal acts that occurred prior to that marriage are being punished." Interesting point however is that, now that the couple are married, the wife probably cannot be compelled to testify against her husband. And that likely includes *any* evidence including DNA etc. Although I would think that the wife should take herself out of the prosecuting state until after the birth... And thereafter, of course, the baby is merely premature, whatever the experts may say... Geoff Who was admonished many years ago, that criminal lawyers have to associate with liars, cheats and scoundrels, and the clients are worse than that! And so does not practice criminal law.... =========== Subject: Chernobyl Death Toll May Be Less Than Feared But of course nuclear power is much too dangerous to use. It scares people. "...but then he slumped into the chair, and they heard only a thin whisper that faded to nothing, "Give them the lightning again." finis coronat opus http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050905/ap_on_re_eu/nuclear_agency_chernobyl VIENNA, Austria - Fewer than 50 deaths have been directly attributed to radiation released in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, and the final toll could be thousands fewer than originally feared, the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency said Monday. AND: The 600-page report says a lack of accurate information about the accident's consequences has made the mental health impact "the largest public health problem created by the accident." File under "Don't worry, be happy!" and "You call THIS a future?!" Petronius The Arbiter Of Taste artes, scientia, veritas perditae ===================== Would an American newspaper report this? http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,16473521%255E663,00.html
TWO Melbourne women were trapped in the chaos at New Orleans' Convention Centre last night. Karen Marks, 25, of Meadow Heights, and her aunt Pamela Whyte, 59, of Broadmeadows, are stuck with thousands of hungry, frantic people tired of waiting for buses to take them out. Karen's mother, Joy Marks, said they were getting desperate. "They are running out of food and water and they are just hanging in there," she said. "They are promised buses every day and they don't arrive." Ms Marks said Karen and Pamela were concerned for their safety amid rising violence. "There's a mob-like tendency in there. People are running around with legs broken off chairs, threatening people," she said. Up to 50 Australians are believed to be stranded across the Gulf Coast. About 10 escaped the New Orleans Superdome yesterday after it erupted in violence. They were holed up in the foyer of the Hilton Hotel last night. Brisbane's John McNeil, 22, told his family he'd witnessed murders, rapes and stabbings, and feared he would be killed. Mr McNeil's father, Peter, said his son was with about 60 other foreign tourists who had fled the Superdome. "They couldn't stay another night, the situation was so bad," he said. "People were just staring at them and making suggestions that they were going to kill them." John's sister Susie said he saw shocking acts of violence amid fierce racial tension in the Superdome. "It's turned into a black against white thing," she said. "My brother has witnessed murders, stabbings, rapes . . . it's like a Third World country." The mother of Sydney woman Vanessa Cullington, thought to be in the Superdome before it was evacuated yesterday, flew to the US in a desperate bid to find her daughter. Sharon Cullington said she had not heard from Vanessa since Tuesday. Vanessa's boyfriend, Toby Salmon, is accompanying Mrs Cullington. "We've brought lots of photos and we're just basically going to see who we can hassle," she said. "We're just going to try and talk people into taking the photos and try and find her." There are also concerns for Queenslander Fiona Seidler, 27, and her sister-in-law, Katie Maclean. The women had been staying at a French Quarter hotel since Monday, but a family spokesman said he had been unable to contact them yesterday. "The latest that we heard was that they were staying in a hotel, but the manager or owner told them that they had to get out because it wasn't safe and now we've lost contact. We don't know where they are," he said. Sydney woman Denise Riviera, 29, called her mother in Australia begging her for help. She rang her mother, Mercedes, yesterday, saying she was trapped in a church without food or drinking water. Mrs Riviera said her daughter told her: "Mum, I'm alive but I am trapped in this church. Get someone to come and rescue us. Report it, ring the embassy . . . since there's water everywhere we can't go anywhere; we haven't got any food or water." A tearful Mrs Riviera said: "I wonder how long my daughter is going to be alive." Adelaide man Scott Ramsay sat through the hurricane when it hit Biloxi, Mississippi. Four Aussie workmates managed to cross into Florida before the hurricane struck, including Michael Hawkins, who said: "The images of the tsunami are exactly what you are seeing in Biloxi - just rubble everywhere, concrete slabs." Queenslanders Tim and Joanne Miller and Garry and Cynthia Jones were rescued by a Channel 7 crew late yesterday. The two couples had huddled under a bridge next to the Convention Centre since they were evacuated from their hotel on Monday. Mr Jones said they were terrified by the violence. "It's a battle zone. There's shooting, dead bodies in the street," he said, adding they had to steal to survive. "We're looters, like everyone else." Mrs Miller said there were bodies around them. "I had an altercation with a police officer and he ended up just crying to me because he was so frustrated and he couldn't do any more," she said. The Millers' daughter, Kelly-Rae Smith, was elated her parents had been found safe and well. "You don't realise how hard it's been. Now we can celebrate," she said. Parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs Bruce Billson said the Australian Government was doing all it could. "All foreign governments that have expressed interest in getting access to the disaster area have been advised that they're not able to enter at this time," he said. =======
"The group really feared for their safety because they were being
targeted because they were the only white people there." ===============
================= I do not know how true this all is. It seems to be what overseas papers are reporting. =========== Subject: Tierney proposes flood preparedness a local responsibility John Tierney in today's NYT proposes that localities take responsibility for their own flood preparedness and that flood insurance not be offered by the feds at prices that encourage unsound building. He suggests that preparedness for floods in other states will never be a Congressman's highest priority. Seems right to me. JMC Your usual good sense. Sounds right to me, too. ============= On conditions in HOUSTON near the Astrodome: My girl friend saw some reports of an area where she often stays at the local residence inn (this is next to Reliant Stadium). There is a strip mall where there a lot of little shops, and sidewalk sales, etc. Some of the refugees have vouchers and what not to buy stuff at the strip mall. Two things that have happened: a) sidewalk sales have had to stop, people just take
things without paying. Many of the other possible convention attendees (mostly older women, this is the world's largest Quilt Show) my girlfriend has talked to our thinking about canceling their trip anyhow because they are worried about the refugees being housed in the downtown area. Anyway, I just though I'd offer that since I have some first person information. I don't think this is the apocolypse or anything, *but these concentrations of refugees need to be broken up SOON*.... But hey, what do I care? I doubt Oregon is going to get any.... = The crimes started as soon as the first bus loads arrived here in Houston. I wish I knew what fool volunteered our Astrodome to house refugees. This action is going to impose enormous costs on Houston's taxpayers that will not be reimbursed, and even bigger costs on the small businessmen and homeowners who will be victimized by these newcomers. There are *reasons* these people did not evacuate in an orderly fashion. Right now a cop friend of mine is collecting a lot of overtime working downtown to arrest refugees whom he characterizes as obviously mentally ill/impaired. (As Heather Mac Donald has documented, America has made a policy decision to use prisons as mental health hospitals.) After disasters in the Third World, I believe that the U.S. military sets up tent cities for those displaced. Something similar should have been done for the New Orleans refugees. The direct costs might or might not have been higher, but the collateral damage to innocent citizens and businesses would have been much lower. So the net resources available to help these people would have been higher. J ============== As I said at the start of the above section, I don't know how true any of that is. According the the Houston Chronicle, the crime wave near the Dome is just rumor http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/front/3340879 The Times-Picayune has the gang rape story at the NO Convention center "That's a kid," he said. "There's another one in the freezer, a 7-year-old with her throat cut.....One of the bodies, they said, was a girl they estimated to be 5 years old. Though they could not confirm it, they had heard she was gang-raped" http://www.nola.com/newslogs/tporleans/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_tporleans/archives/2005_09.html#077206 We're 400 miles from NO, and we have hundreds in shelters here. They're getting jobs and getting moved into longer term housing, but of course the ones that are here are the ones with initiative and means to get out on their own before all hell broke loose. Phil For more on Phil's ship: http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=91708&ran=132637&tref=o We can all hope and pray that most of the horror stories are exaggerated or even made up. Unfortunately, we are dealing with an area that had the highest murder rate in the country before the disaster; and people who did not heed the warnings to get out of town before the hurricane. It will take a long time to sort out what really happened. BUT: charity demands that we do something for the victims. Prudence demands that we consider the consequences of concentrating large numbers of people who were unable to keep order in their own communities in neighborhoods accustomed to having order kept largely by custom and civility rather than force. Dispersion to allow the Melting Pot to work its civilizing magics may be in order. Concentrating the formerly lawless in a few places is probably not prudent.
2 political scientists at Princeton help revive debate on how European liberals of centuries past viewed colonialism and imperialism By DAVID GLENN It is one of the most troubling puzzles in the history of political thought: Why were some of Europe's early liberal theorists -- the people who imagined and promoted tolerance, universal suffrage, the rule of law, and minimal government -- also enthusiastic supporters of European colonization, conquest, and empire in Asia and Africa? John Stuart Mill, author of On Liberty and The Subjection of Women, spent 25 years working for the British East India Company in the mid-19th century. He believed that India and other "barbarous" nations "have not got beyond the period during which it is likely to be to their benefit that they should be conquered and held in subjection by foreigners." Alexis de Tocqueville, among the century's most sophisticated proponents of democracy, argued during the 1840s that it was urgently necessary for France to subjugate and colonize Algeria. Through much of the 20th century, political theorists and intellectual historians largely ignored that element of classical liberals' thought, focusing instead on their abstract arguments for liberty or their campaigns for domestic reform. (Tocqueville's voluminous writing on Algeria was virtually forgotten in the English-speaking world.) And when these liberals' pro-imperialist arguments were acknowledged, they were sometimes dismissed as simple hypocrisy. More recently, some left-wing scholars have argued that -- far from hypocrisy -- the liberals' imperialist adventures reveal something essential about liberalism itself. The Enlightenment's calls for universal human liberty, according to this argument, have always contained a Eurocentric and potentially racist understanding of what human societies should look like. Such discussions are no longer confined to the margins of postcolonial studies. With the end of the cold war's international order -- not to mention the U.S. invasion of Iraq -- the question of empire has moved close to the heart of legal and political theorists' preoccupations. The past 15 years have seen a flourishing of sophisticated explorations of liberalism, conquest, and international justice. No Simple Formulas Two of the most visible exponents of this new wave in empire studies are Jennifer Pitts and Sankar Muthu, who met as graduate students at Harvard University a decade ago and who are now assistant professors of politics at Princeton University. Along the way, they got married. In Enlightenment Against Empire (Princeton University Press, 2003), Mr. Muthu examined the brief period in the late 18th century when several prominent liberal theorists -- notably Denis Diderot and Johann Gottfried von Herder -- were skeptical toward, and in some cases actively campaigned against, European colonialism. Ms. Pitts's new book, A Turn to Empire: The Rise of Imperial Liberalism in Britain and France (Princeton, 2005), explores the very different mood of the mid-19th century, when most leading liberals, Mill and Tocqueville among them, sat comfortably on the imperialist bandwagon.<snip> =======
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| This week: | Tuesday,
September 6, 2005 Subject: How would Los Angeles fare? Steve Setzer asks on your site, "New Orleans was not prepared to last three minutes, let alone three days. I wonder how Los Angeles or Chicago would have fared." I think I can answer that question: Los Angeles would fare just as well now as it did over a decade ago when the Northridge Quake hit. Unlike New Orleans, who seems to ignore the fact that it's situated in hurricane and flood territory, Los Angeles never forgets that it's in earthquake country. Our building code reflects this, we make it easy for people to get things they need to make their houses safer, and we have regular campaigns to remind people to keep their earthquake supplies up-to-date. Not being involved in such things, I can't know for certain that the city's emergency plans are adequate, but I'd be highly astonished to find they were as bad as New Orleans' turned out to be. I can't say there'd be no looting after another quake, but judging by what happened last time, there'd be very little, and the police would be right on top of it. New Orleans appears to have gone under the assumption that if they don't plan for an emergency, there won't be one. We've all heard of Kings Log and Stork; we now see what happens when a land is governed by King Ostrich. - - Joe Zeff The only problem with trouble-shooting is that sometimes trouble shoots back. http://home.earthlink.net/~sidebrnz http://www.lasfs.org === RE: Governor Blanco Must Share Blame Jerry, At this point in time it sure appears that governor Blanco of Louisiana has to share in the blame for the disorganization. Here in Florida, at least in the past few years, we will *always* have a relief convoy and national guard on standby in a nearby region and we start to roll in as soon as a hurricane passes through. It does not appear there was anything like this in place in Lousiana. The national guard is in direct control under the governor for situations such as these. Here in Tallahassee (the state capital) we have an emergency command and control center, designed for a direct hit by a category 5 hurricane and designed to be self sufficient for extended periods of time. Of course, we have come to this place via the school of hard knocks ourselves. Mike Cheek Tallahassee The primary responsibility for domestic crisis is the State which means the Governor. Everyone including the Governor knows this. Louisiana and Arkansas have for years contested to see which can be the most corrupt and least efficient state, and both generally win. It is not the Federal Government's primary task, nor should it be. The dismantling of Civil Defense, an organization of locals with support and equipment paid for by both state and national sources, mostly volunteers with a small paid full time staff, was a disaster; and the creation of FEMA made promises that would never be kept. The problems are structural. (See view) ==== One more point: I have mail wondering how many of the stories of lawlessness in Houston and elsewhere are true. Certainly there are those who delight in telling such stories to reinforce their own prejudices. I gave my response above so as to keep it with the reports; but it bears repeating here. I quote myself: We can all hope and pray that most of the horror stories are exaggerated or even made up. Unfortunately, we are dealing with an area that had the highest murder rate in the country before the disaster; and people who did not heed the warnings to get out of town before the hurricane. It will take a long time to sort out what really happened. BUT: charity demands that we do something for the victims. Prudence demands that we consider the consequences of concentrating large numbers of people who were unable to keep order in their own communities in neighborhoods accustomed to having order kept largely by custom and civility rather than force. Dispersion to allow the Melting Pot to work its civilizing magics may be in order. Concentrating the formerly lawless in a few places is probably not prudent. ===================== A long report from Phillip Pournelle. Pictures follow. I make no apology for the length: HSV-2 (High Speed Vessel) Swift left Pensacola last night and re-supplied USNS Arctic and proceeded on to New Orleans. We saw more of the stricken oil rigs I described before. Coast Guard and NOAA ships were out conducting surveys of the area and I could see shipping traffic in the Gulf of Mexico, particularly oil tankers, has started to pick up. As we started up the Mississippi river I could see that the full force of the storm had been unleashed on the southern shores. Navigation markers, buoys, protective docks and other structures were gone. If we sailed in there at night there would have been nothing to see. We can only navigate at night. There were a number of civil war era lighthouses still standing, but of course they have nothing to light them... Looking out at the Mississippi area on the way in one could be lulled into thinking of it as a nice rustic quiet area. That is until you talk to the pilots who work the river. As we headed up the river I spotted a chemical plant that looked like it had been abandoned years ago. The refining tanks were dark black and appear to be aged and corroded. That was until the pilot pointed out the small patches of green paint. The rest had been scoured off by the wind. We passed a barge that had wandered fifty miles down the river after breaking loose during the storm. Someone had pushed it ashore to keep it out of the way. As we went further up river the pilot told us the surge had caused the river to rise over twenty feet. This was evident by the large number of enormous ore barges and tugs that had been lift up and placed on the side of the river without breaking the trees in between. We could see a barge larger than my ship used for oil recovery. It was sitting on the side of the river in perfect condition. It was like some godlike chilled had lifted it like a toy out of the river and placed it gently ashore. The sad fact is the barge may have to be cut up to put it back in the water. There are few mobile floating cranes heavy enough to lift objects of this size. As we headed further up river we started to see more grain, iron ore, and concrete bearing barges strewn ashore. I soon lost count of how many of these huge barges were ashore. As we headed up further we started to see the outer villages. The villages were built in between levies. One levy held back the Mississippi, the other a lake or floodable land. Then in some cases, like New Orleans, portions of the villages are below sea level. During normal rain they just pump out the water. In this case the pumps could not keep up and were knocked out. Entire villages were lost along with the parish seat. Industrial loading facilities were severely damaged. A giant gantry crane used to ship coal into barges had fallen crashing into other structures. Houses, offices, garages and other structures were gone, only their foundations remaining to mark where they were. Small boats were broken, some sitting on a neighbor's lawn, others broken into kindling. There were areas strewn with so much rubble that you could not tell what ever had been there before. Then we saw the Pogie boats. These are 50-ton power tugs used to push flotillas of barges. Two of them had been picked up and placed on the highway like scattered toys. Again, the Pogie boats could probably be in perfect working condition if they could be re-floated. This was a double blow, jobs lost on the boats and with the roads blocked; it will be a while until this parish will be restored, if ever. This was perhaps the best illustration to me of the power of this storm. HSV-2 Swift can travel fully loaded up to 40 knots. At times we were traveling at 30 knots or more. We had to slow down in a number of areas as we saw tugs, cranes and others trying to clear the river or pull barges off the banks. We slowed to ensure our passage did not disturb their work. Four hours in we started to see the outskirts of New Orleans. The damage initially did not look too severe. We saw fewer barges strewn ashore and more boats and ships operating. Then we saw the Coast Guard working boats. They were about surveying damage. They became more numerous as we went up river. We saw more and more helicopters. Then it became obvious there was a flotilla of police, coast guard and military working boats in the water and a larger armada of helicopters in the air. The large number of helicopters reminded me of early footage of the first gulf war when Saddam's airmobile troops had invaded Kuwait city. Looking back, it also reminds me of Mogadishu where I watched Marine Corps helicopters take off from USS Tripoli and patrol the skies during Operation Restore Hope. The helicopters in Mogadishu were escorting the Marines and UN aid personnel through their lawless streets. Then I saw the truck convoys on the highway running through St. Bernard Parish and 9th Ward. The helicopters were hovering over them, escorting the convoy... St. Bernard Parish was one of the areas where a levy for an inner coastal highway had broken and sent water spilling in. Water was starting to recede. High ground was strewn with debris, lower ground was still flooded. Roofs were missing, some structures were wrecked. The 1800 era steam boat houses were built to look like steam boats, now they were awash. 9th Ward was flooded as well. We could see smoke still rising from the Mandeville warehouses/wharfs that had been set afire. I watched an army Chinook helicopter with a load slung below it. Initially I though it was carrying stores in a VERTREP. It turned out it was carrying a fire-fighting bucket. Several helicopters were picking up water from the flooded business district and dropping it on another warehouse that had been set afire. Our destination was USS Iwo Jima. She is moored to the quay wall on the Riverwalk near the Crescent City Bridge along with a Hamilton class Coast Guard Cutter. They are serving as command and control centers for the Joint Operations Center here in New Orleans. We watched helicopters come and go from USS Iwo Jima's flight deck. We pulled up and displayed the ship's maneuverability by landing on the pier in one location, pull out, twist around and land in another all without any tugs. It helps when the Captain is the best shipdriver I've watched in action. After unloading some fuel and parts for Iwo Jima, we set flight quarters. We are conducting a vertical replenishment. Helicopters are lifting stores from Swift's flight deck to USS Shreveport and USS Tortuga. The same crew of 44 motivated sailors, who drove the ship up the river, landed and tied her up, then proceeded to stage the stores and is working the flight deck. It has been a very long day for them. Fortunately, because the Mississippi is only open during daylight, they will get full nights sleep before we head down the river and start this all over again. They deserve it. The good news is there is power on the Riverwalk and the lights are on in Kelley's. I was able to call my wife on my cell phone and ask my daughter about her first day of school. The bad news is there is a nightly curfew and no one may leave military facilities unless part of a convoy. There is a joint task force here in New Orleans. I've watched sailors, soldiers, Marines, Coastguardsmen, National Guard and local police setting out this evening. Many will be able to sleep easy tonight because tough disciplined men and women are on station. The crew of HSV-2 Swift did such a great job providing the task force the food and equipment they need. I had almost nothing to do with it. I just make sure they get fed and nag them about sunscreen and look after the other details executive officers are supposed to do. I have to go. I've spent too much time on this already. My in box is crammed full of messages. I love you, Phil P.S. Please feel free to post this. The crew deserves all the credit they can get. I just get to watch them in action. The pictures and captions below are from Phil: The Captain in action. (He's in the middle) Me trying
to keep up with him on the bridge.
A Barge tossed ashore like a toy.
New Orleans. It looks so peaceful. Pan further to the
left and you would see an armada of helicpoters rising and faling towards
USS Iwo Jima.
Helicopters patrolling New Orleans skyline
Jerry, With the time zone change (it is now 4:30 on the West coast) you just might turn on the TV to NBC nightly news in time to see Philip's ship behind Bryan Williams on the Mississippi river. It is either his ship or one of the same type. They zoom in on the ship, and the helicopter carrier next to it at one point early in the broadcast. Chuck Bouldin
=========
USS Iwo Jima the flagship for the Joint Operating
Center. =========== The bit about looking in Japan in 1995 after the Kobe quake mystifies me. I did a column about the lack of preparedness for the event and how there were a lot of problems, but I also recall that the population was very orderly and looting was noticeable only by its absence. They're Japanese, fer cripes sake. Buddhists. Not inclined to take something not theirs. It turns out that the reports of looters firing on helicopters in New Orleans were false. Instant Urban Legends which I am sure will be with us, corrupting the real facts, for years to come. If you think about it, firing with a rifle at a military helicopter attempting rescues is the ultimate definition of "evolution in action."/ They will likely shoot back. I don't know why people enjoy making this stuff up, but they do. We had one such character in Frankfurt, an officer no less, who wasn't allowed in the Headquarters. The reason why? He once told me, "If I don't hear a rumor by ten in the morning, I start one." Very personable guy, but lonely since everyone avoided him like the plague. He had a drinking buddy who was a reporter for the local English language scandal rag and created a lot of work for me that I could have done without. I am sure that some of the dire reports we are hearing have some basis in fact, but that the facts have been severely bent in the service of entertainment and self aggrandizement. As the SecDef so famously said in another context, "this is not helpful". What it is, is disinformation or deadly memes that infect rational discourse and problem solving. Sincerely, Francis Hamit
===================== From Monday's Mail, pundit "J" opined in part: <snip> > Anyway, I just though I'd offer that since I have some first person information. > I don't think this is the apocolypse or anything, *but these > concentrations of refugees need to be broken up SOON*.... > > But hey, what do I care? I doubt Oregon is going to get any.... <snip> Ahem. I wrote up care plans for five of them last night, and had to pass seven more on to the next team... folks do evacuate themselves (the smart ones, anyway.... read Heinlein's "On the Slopes of Vesuvius", http://www.baen.com/chapters/W200310/0743471598.htm?blurb highly instructional under the circumstances). But, Oregonians _are_ preparing for FEMA's promise of a thousand or so evacuees: http://www.katu.com/news/story.asp?ID=79433 http://www.gazettetimes.com/articles/2005/09/06/news/oregon/tuesta00a.txt http://news.google.com/news?q=Katrina+Refugees+in+Portland&hl=en&hs=Gc8&lr=&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&sa=N&tab=nn&oi=newsr Fortunately, there's a donut shop http://ijcoffee.com in downtown Portland which serves beignet and chicory cafe au lait, so if the refugees are form New Orleans, they won't be completely lost... with free WiFi http://local.google.com/local?q=cache:Q1fb4a9_dF4J:wifipdx.com/spots/Island_Joes+Island+Joe%27s&near=Portland,OR&hl=en no less, well suited for 'fugees form the Silicon Bayou (as my wife and I were amused to read New Orleans describe itself in recent visits). We'll do our part to take care of them. -- -- John Bartley K7AAY PDX OR USA http://k-help.blogspot.com ''This is a carburetor,'' Hank tells his son. ''Take it apart, put it back together; repeat until you're normal.'' - KOTH ================ I don't remember whether I mentioned or not in my prior letter that while FEMA is on site nobody at the mid level or lower could even tell you that they are there. They are assisting with the highest level planning but leaving it to the local organizations to carry out the work. As I mentioned earlier from what I've seen it has worked well. Apparently the Mayor things so also. See <http://baboonpirates.blogspot.com/2005/09/message-from-hizzoner.html> a blog from an anonymous City of Houston employee. In one view this backs up your position. Things are getting done relatively smoothly because FEMA is not running the show. An alternate view is that FEMA is working well because it is doing the high level assistance that it is supposed to do. Unfortunately my position is lower down and so I don't have enough information to make a judgement either way. From the tinfoil cap crowd though it doesn't seem to make a difference. Everything is Bush's fault. Another bit of news of the Federal Government helping people by getting the heck out of the way is the emergency IRS order issued on Friday. They've waived the onerous paperwork and income requirements for the victims in obtain LIHTC ("Tax Credit") housing. Normally this is a very paperwork intensive operation with very severe tax and financial consequences if you rent to someone who does not meet all of the Federal and State rules for low income housing. This IRS waiver was issued very quickly after request from the State of Texas. Whether Bush had anything to do with this in terms of approval or speed I have no idea. But I am fairly sure that the media will not give him any credit. Name withheld Which is how things used to work. And it is unfair, perhaps, to blame the actual FEMA employees for the "trust us, we're professionals" attitude that finished off the local Civil Defense organizations (doomed to begin with because their rather small funding was cut off entirely; as was the Director of Civilian Marksmanship and the program to see that every qualified US household had a rifle -- surplus M1's were being sold for under $100. Horrors! Guns in the hands of citizens who had qualified and were not felons and -- Anyway when the local organizations were disbanded, the opportunities to work with FEMA were limited. Presidents of both parties used FEMA as a place to put old friends. This is how things work in the US, and it can be useful -- political friends of the President usually have more access than bureaucrats -- but it also means that the political people have to understand enough to fight for what is needed. The structural failures are what we need to concentrate on. Neighbor to neighbor; organization; communications that actually work; incentives for volunteers to spend a lot of unpaid time being prepared in the hope they will never be needed. Tennessee Colonels were not entirely a joke, nor is the militia entirely needless. I have been working at the Reliant Center complex. The stories appear to be complete fabrications. If anything the environment is surprisingly calm. I was planning a longer letter describing my observations. I don't have time right now but wanted to get a quick note off after reading some of the letter on your site. Yes, there are screwups all the time in any large operation but so far I have seen nothing out of the ordinary. I've probably seen more screwups in much smaller major corporations. At least here the people working are actually trying to help the clients (yes, that's what we are supposed to call them.) Whether this is because of or in spite of FEMA I have seen an amazing operation that has made me very proud of my fellow citizens. Perhaps this is because we are outside of the area but FEMA appears to be letting the local organizations run the show. If they are giving orders it is only at the very highest level. Today (Tuesday) we were expecting a drop off of volunteers showing up to help due to the end of the Labor Day weekend. From 6:00 AM to 11:00 AM I was estating roughly "only" 250 an hour arriving. Then the floodgates opened (ooh, bad choice of words) and over a one hour period close to 500 people showed up. These are just the walk-in "grunts" who are showing up to just do something. This does not include the thousands who are official name badged workers. One lady from California commented that Texas just amazes her. She was almost stunned by the community outpouring of help. The local evil money grubbing corporations have been sending money, goods, skilled manpower, even in one instance hiring people off of the street to come work. Local communications suppliers are fighting over rack space to supply additional data lines. The "clients" for the most part have the highest priority in getting their families back together. This lead to an interesting twist today when word was leaked about sheltering select groups on cruise ships that were leased for temporary housing. Rather than a mob scene of people trying to get on the list the opposite happened. People are so afraid of losing the ability to receive news of missing relatives and friends that they didn't want to leave in order to go on a free cruise. Somehow this doesn't quite match the the reports of the people sent here I read in the letters. Name Withheld In both cases above I know who the writers of the above letters are, and I have considerable confidence in their veracity. I also have: To give you an idea of the magnitude of what is going on, here is a description from a Washington Times story: "Storm victims are raped and beaten; fights erupt with flying fists, knives and guns; fires are breaking out; corpses litter the streets; and police and rescue helicopters are repeatedly fired on. "The plea from Mayor C. Ray Nagin came even as National Guardsmen poured in to restore order and stop the looting, carjackings and gunfire.... "Last night, Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco said 300 Iraq-hardened Arkansas National Guard members were inside New Orleans with shoot-to-kill orders. " 'These troops are...under my orders to restore order in the streets,' she said. 'They have M-16s, and they are locked and loaded. These troops know how to shoot and kill and they are more than willing to do so if necessary and I expect they will.' " The reference to Iraq is eerie. The photo that accompanies this article shows National Guard troops, with rifles and armored vests, riding on an armored vehicle through trash-strewn streets lined by a rabble of squalid, listless people, one of whom appears to be yelling at them. It looks exactly like a scene from Sadr City in Baghdad. The above is from a widely circulated article/letter/blog from a political writer who says it is a politically incorrect view of Katrina. Whether he has an incentive to believe the horror stories I do not know. I will admit that I heard so many from so many sources -- this while I was serving on about 15 panels at the science fiction convention and meeting with my colleagues about various matters -- that I began to believe them. And, I think, some were true. But many were not, as it turns out. There has always been crime in Louisiana and a lot of crime in New Orleans compared with other cities. One does not expect the crime rate to go down by much when the police are distracted from other matters. One also does not expect rapes of 7 year old girls (we can pray that that unconfirmed story was a vicious rumor) but one may not be astonished if a few people go over the edge. Niven and I wrote The Burning City as a kind of explanation of some of the phenomena; but that is another story. I also know the writer of the following: Subject: Firsthand report from Astrodome Dr. Pournelle, I spent 8 hours yesterday as a volunteer in the Astrodome manning the Red Cross phone lines. I'd describe it as a controlled confusion that is being heavily policed. Most of the people inside the dome just seem exhausted as can be expected. Almost all of the children seemed happy, and many were playing with the volunteers who were assigned to children duty. It's easy to see that there might be a crime wave around the astrodome. As young men in low hanging pants seemed to be just circling around outside the buildings in the 90 degree heat, waiting for sunset. Maybe that is just my biased perceptions, but I wouldn't let my wife go there alone to volunteer. There is an 11 pm curfew, and wristbands control the ebb and flow of people and don't allow anyone back in after 11 pm. This will be good for internal control, but woe to the surrounding neighborhood. The database that I was supposed to be checking against for survivors was only about 10% complete after two days of furious typing by data entry people. It was heartbreaking to tell callers that we had no information and no way to contact the people on the floor of the astrodome unless the refugee asked a volunteer to check on the web if someone is looking for them. I only managed to locate 3 people after spending 8 hours taking calls, while I collected information from about 80 relatives. (Next time I'll volunteer to carry heavy things in the hot sun instead of this.) One of the problems was the refugees didn't sign a form saying their data could be released, so now registration has to be repeated. Anarcho-tyranny rules. I've really enjoyed your books over the years, especially the collaborations with Larry Niven. please don't use my last name or email address. Take Care, Joe =============
washingtonpost.com Class Struggles Stories from the front lines of American schools reveal the world beneath policy debates. By Eric Hoover Sunday, September 4, 2005; BW13 In 1983, a national panel of education experts released the report that launched a thousand headaches. The document, "A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform," warned that public schools were foundering. The nation's jaw dropped, and politicians promised improvements. Two decades later, they're still promising. But the bickering over reforms is ceaseless. Take the No Child Left Behind Act, the controversial federal law requiring schools to show annual progress on state tests taken by students in grades 3 through 8. Supporters say the get-tough program promotes high standards and accountability; critics say the plan is too rigid and out of step with reality. Who's right? And how do such big questions relate to struggles in school systems near you? Satisfying answers rarely come from politicians and wonks, who dwell in a fog of slogans and statistics. But welcome are those authors who find the pulse of human drama in the education trenches. The experiences of students, parents, teachers and administrators in American schools make compelling stories, full of heroes, villains and conflicts.<snip> |
| This week: |
Wednesday,
September 7, 2005
As we study this disaster, let us see why the disaster response required that every one in the command chain make an immediate, correct analysis of the situation and take that action, within the law, that would be unarguably the best action to take. Any law that works only if everything is perfect is a really stupid law. A system that falls apart if any single component fails is a bad, bad system. Bad systems are the fault of bad designers. Congress, in the comfort and ease of your offices, rewrite the laws so as to make the best use of whatever information, people and materials are at hand. Make those laws with the knowledge that perfection is the enemy of good enough. Until congress is perfect it is hypocritical for them to demand perfection of others. Walter E. Wallis Indeed. Well said. The failure was structural; the fix is to use volunteers trained and equipped well in advance. ================= HMCS Athabaskan, Toronto, Ville de Quebec, and CCGS Sir William Alexander leave Halifax, Nova Scotia on hurricane-relief mission to the gulf coast: http://www.herald.ns.ca/stories/2005/09/07/f248.raw.html I know at least two of the people on this mission. Cheers, Mike Csey Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada A number of countries are sending help, which is noble of them. The primary problem here is coordination of resources and resource efforts, not lack of wealth; but lack of coordination early on results in the desperate need for more and more people and equipment to throw into sudden emergency situations. I just hope FEMA doesn't have them passing out leaflets (see view) =============== Dr. Pournelle: An interesting response to some of the misinformation that is going around about Katrina and its aftermath. I've provided excerpts, below. http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=4797 Reality #1: A very high percentage of the population of New Orleans and surrounding low lying areas were successfully evacuated before the hurricane hit. An article in 2002 in the New Orleans Times-Picayune explored the hurricane-induced flooding scenario and estimated that 200,000 residents of the city would be stranded by such an event. A Houston Chronicle article from 2001 estimated that 250,000 residents would be stranded. That is over 40% of the population of the city, which stood at 484,000 in 2000. Reality #2: The basic major media premise all week has been that the 20% who were left behind were all black, and poor and the rich got out of town. This is simply put, nonsense – and racist. New Orleans is a poor city (more than twice the national poverty rate). Most of those who got out of town were not rich, and were not driving SUVs, as Tim Russert sneered on the air Sunday (in a disgracefully-conducted interview with Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff). Reality #3: The destruction from the storm affected far more whites than blacks. This is the ultimate answer to the racism charge that Bush did not do enough because the victims were black. If more whites than blacks were storm and flood victims, and the federal response was slow, than I guess by this logic, the response was insufficient because Bush is a racist towards whites. As James Taranto pointed out Friday, in his opinionjournal.com column <http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110007203> , the three Mississippi counties that were hardest hit - Hancock (home to Pass Christian), Harrison (home to Biloxi and Gulfport), and Jackson (home to Pascagoula and Ocean Springs) are among the whitest counties in Mississippi... Reality #4: There were many victims of the storm this week that the media largely ignored <http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/03/D8CD6TQ03.html> . On the Mississippi coast, the hurricane caused damage we expect to see from a big storm, but far worse than last year’s Florida hurricanes. Buildings, both commercial and residential, cars, boats, and roads were leveled or destroyed by the powerful 145 mile per hour winds. Many areas of the Gulf Coast have been unreachable, even without the major flooding that occurred in the New Orleans area. In low lying areas of Louisiana near the coast, there are also communities that have not been reached yet, where many likely died. Reality #5: The lawlessness in New Orleans was more of the same for a city that has always had a very high crime rate <http://www.americanprowler.com/dsp_article.asp?art_id=8684> . Reality #6: There were enough National Guard forces in the region and nation when the hurricane and flood hit, and our commitment in Iraq did not <http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112587264899231569,00.html> prevent an adequate response by the Guard. Reality #7: While the news media have focused on a few modest appropriation cuts for New Orleans levees and water control, they have largely ignored the fact that the major reconstruction project that would provide more than a temporary fix to the city’s sinking condition, has been stalled for years. The big problem, as even the New York Times admits <http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/05/opinion/05mon3.html> , is that the Louisiana coast is disappearing Lee Keller King I would argue that our overseas adventures did very much affect our abilities to deal with the hurricane/flood, but since we have so many capabilities the lack of much of the ready force was not seen as often as I would have predicted. Otherwise I have no quarrel. Thanks. You are one of many who has sent me excerpts from this. ============== Subject: Creative Commons Dr. Pournelle, First of all let me thank you for hours and hours of reading and thought.
Now to humbly try and answer a few of your questions. 1. Yes it is missing a lot of details. This is because it is an attempt to use as liberal a copyright as possible. The reasons behind this are in the talk that I'm linking to. So the idea is to not be very detailed, leave a lot up to the user and to have something to maybe fall back on the case of obvious abuse. 2. The reason, or at least the reason I think, that Dvorak has talked so much about this is because it produces page views for him. But I take the cynical view of him on most things. 3. It works as a business model. I have 3 of Doctorow's books on my palm and at least one on an iPod. I also have deadtree copies of all three of them. I know I'm not alone here. It's the same theory on which Baen gives away content only with more liberal reuse rights. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Ray I hadn't noted Baen using this. From what I can see, this is a series of canned rights statements, very useful to those who do not have literary agents. I do not see why it is particularly controversial. Having said that, I also have a lot of hate mail from people telling me what is wrong with me for not using Creative Commons. I threw all that away. ======== And for pure fun Feathered, particoloured dinosaurs. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1764136,00.html Roland Dobbins Hah! And see Burning Tower... ========= Item of probable interest to another pet lover, Dr. Pournelle: "People and pets: Members of the news media have redeemed themselves in coverage of Katrina. But one truth is mystifying correspondents and anchors. They can't understand why some New Orleans residents still refuse to go despite water around their houses and the stench of dead bodies. "One reason is their pets. So now, to force the people out, the government is telling people they're on their own. No more water and food will be delivered. That's wrong. These people have lost so much. And they are holding onto life - in that pet - that gives them love and security. "Maybe some of us love our pets too much. But when we take an animal, we make a commitment through good times and bad. And no matter what the times are, that pet is always there to give back. We just can't desert them. "If the government wants people out, then let them take their pets. After losing so much, they should not have to give up life that provides so much unconditional love and reassurance." Quoted from Tim Chavez at Indeed. "We're from the government and we are here to help you..." =========== More from Lt. Cdr. Phillip Pournelle Exec of USNV SWIFT (and see above) Subject: Swift 7 September Dad, Today we headed out of New Orleans bound for Pensacola. As we started south from the Riverwalk I could see more areas where fires were burning. The local news reported that with large portions of the city abandoned there was no one to call the fire department. The only way to detect the fires were to watch for smoke rising. 9th Ward and St. Bernard are still flooded, but the highways were open. Military convoys were still streaming in. The good news is Salvage operations on the river are starting up in earnest. There is a lot to do. The bad news it means we had to slow down a lot. At 30+ knots Swift does not leave a huge surface wake but the catamaran hull and water jets creates a surge that can bounce people around ashore. So we had to drop to a measly 15 knots at times... Ashore I could see working trucks and other traffic on the highways. With a second view along the way, I could see more villages and towns that were wiped out. The Pilot pointed out a furniture factory that looked like a pile of rubble. A car dealership was completely demolished. Horses were grazing nearby. There were 20,000 cattle near a town called Venice. A much smaller portion of that herd was now grazing on the opposite bank from their ranch. A local merchant prince owns a cattle ranch on the river. The paddocks where Horses, Cattle and Elk lived were flooded. The remaining livestock were now all grazing on his front yard. Fuel tanks that had been emptied before the storm were crush inwards like beer cans, the drop in pressure caused them to implode. Enormous oil tanks looked like their roof was rolled back with can opener. Merchant traffic is starting to pick up but is still very light. One River pilot for the lower river portion stated they usually handle 30 ships each a day. Today they would handle 15 total. The seas have picked up here in the Gulf of Mexico as we head to Pensacola. We'll arrive early in the morning tomorrow. There we will load up with more refrigerated containers. Additionally, we will load out with MREs, food, bottled water, parts, equipment, etc. Up to 500 tons of necessary materials for transfer to the Joint Task Force in New Orleans. The crew is doing great. They were chiding me about the Plan of the Day (POD) I write every morning. It is supposed to give them an idea of what to do that day. Today was the only day since this started where it has not changed (well actually one event did have to be delayed...). They now call it the "Premonition of the Day." They are great folks, smart, motivated and flexible. I wouldn't trade this assignment with any other job in the Navy. Love, Here are some pictures of us conducting
VERTREP operations last night. Note the lights are in the Riverwalk area. ======== [Following were not captioned, but from same series]: The Navy on the job. Thanks, son. =========== Subject: Zarqawi's Communiqué About Katrina Dr. Pournelle: Please note Zarqawi's communiqué of September 4 thanking "Allah for harnessing the elements of nature against America" and swearing "to carry on from there." www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1080 Bob
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Thursday,
September 8, 2005 Subject: It's the lawyer's fault Jerry, This is pathetic (the situation, not the essay): Robert Novak at http://www.townhall.com/columnists/robertnovak/rn20050908.shtml <snip> Democrats have seized on the administration's performance in handling Katrina to bash George W. Bush, but Republicans are not much happier with him. The common complaint is that the president has let the lawyers take over. Chertoff, a former federal judge and assistant attorney general, is a quintessential lawyer who has surrounded himself at Homeland Security with more lawyers. Michael D. Brown, who as head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is Chertoff's subordinate, is also a lawyer. Neither Chertoff nor Brown was experienced in politics or large-scale management before joining the Bush administration. <snip> Rep. Mark Foley of West Palm Beach, Fla., not known as a shouter, was especially critical. Contrary to claims that FEMA's Brown was doing just fine until Katrina struck, Foley has been at odds with Brown over the government's handling of hurricanes that have hit his Florida district. Foley has stories of Brown's denial of reality and FEMA's inherent bureaucratic sluggishness. Attempts in Florida to send 500 airboats to the Gulf Coast to help, the congressman says, hit a governmental brick wall.<snip> The Democrats on the ground, Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, have done little to commend themselves. But that does not excuse the federal performance, in the candid opinion of many Republicans. To start with, these Republicans talk about taking FEMA back from the Homeland Security Department. They agree that heads must roll, certainly Brown's and possibly Chertoff's. Above all, these Republican politicians say, let's get the lawyers out of disaster relief.<snip> Well, the situation is more complex than that; I will have some things to say in my essay on the subject. Since it is column time and I have deadlines I may not get that done today but I will try. I do point out: the usual activity of bureaucracies is compliance with a myriad of rules and regulations. It takes a lawyer to deal with them. An administrator who ignored them would be jailed. And now an illustration of bureaucracy in action: <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9231271/> -- Robert Bruce Thompson I think I can rest my case? See also my notes toward an essay, on how we are using this to build imperialism and destroy the republic. Then weep for the Republic. Subject: Lawyers in government Jerry, Over 25 years ago, I worked as a consultant (Beltway Bandit) to the Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA). Most of the ERDA employees were engineers, with a serious interest in energy research. Much of the work that got funded was similar in spirit to your beloved X-projects. By contrast, the then Federal Energy Administration (FEA), the group entrusted with energy policy and most directly responsible for the 1970’s gas shortages, was mostly lawyers and bureaucrats. When all federal energy agencies were consolidated into the Department of Energy, many expected FEA to be dissolved. Instead, it and the much larger ERDA (plus other agencies) were combined into DOE, and it was the FEA people who ended up in charge. Not surprising, given that their primary focus was on their careers, not on the supposed mission of DOE. At the time of this transition, I had a meeting at FEA with on of the Deputy Administrators. I can still vividly remember her condescending attitude towards the ERDA engineers. She told me that they had been living in a dreamland, but now, with the FEA folks in charge, they would find out what it was really like to work for the government. She was right, and when they did many of them left DOE for industry or academic positions. I guess the only surprise in all this is that anybody still believes that it can ever be otherwise. The definition of insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again, while expecting different results” certainly seems to apply here. Regards, John DeVries Precisely. But Trust Us: Subject: Astrodome radio station blocked I know the folks involved in this, the report is 100% accurate: http://wired.com/news/hurricane/0,2904,68806,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_4 Roland Dobbins We are from the government and we are here to help you, Citizen. === I don't know the veracity of this report: http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/fema.html - Roland Dobbins Nor do I. The horror is that I do not know the veracity of that report. There was a time when I could have said, with some vehemence, it was propaganda put forth by enemies. Now I do not know the veracity of that report. Weep. It is well to be skeptical of fast reports. See below. (Monday, September 12: it wasn't entirely true. See next week's mail.) Subject: Re: Falls Creek "detainee" story About the story linked here http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/fema.html recounting the FEMA use of the Falls Creek Baptist Assembly "campgrounds" for Katrina refugees. I cannot (yet) verify the narrative, but the pics are all legit, all definitely Falls Creek, all legit OHP vehicles, etc. And the volunteering of the facilities is a fact. I have some emails out to folks in Oklahoma who may be able to discover more locally. David Needham http://thirdworldcounty.blogspot.com/
============ Private Volunteer Efforts Complicate Disaster Response http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/07/AR2005090702070_pf.html <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/07/AR2005090702070_pf.html> (More) Get out of here boy. You bother me! The utter audacity of telling people NOT to help, you are just in the way. I am proud of the American frontier heritage. I keep getting this odd mental image of a frontier town putting together a barn raising for a neighbor whose barn was struck by lightning. Then the sheriff organizes a posse to block the townspeople people from helping the neighbor. It just does not make any sense to me. This is just plain old un-American. Yes, I do weep for what we once were. Rob == Dear Sir: While watching all this tragedy and farce immediately to the south of my home (Columbus, MS) unfold, I was attempting to extrapolate what a properly run emergency response organization should look like. From my training as a Boy Scout and work done in the Episcopal Church, I had some idea what the words "emergency preparedness" meant and that local organizations could serve as quite effective responders. Seeing the Surgeon General on CNN caused me to wonder what life would be like if we had a civilian service like the Public Health Service, uniformed and with some quasi-military traditions, to instill continuity, duty, and the importance of the task. Such a service could be small in number, simply serving as a core to assemble emergency response bursts around (so we don't have to wait around for three-star National Guard generals who show up three days later from somewhere else). Such a service would not interfere with the existence of FEMA as such (for it does do some useful tasks), nor with private charities or the useful bits of Homeland Security. Instead it would provide the one thing lacking above all else in this situation -- coordination. Combined with local volunteers and FEMA resources, the service would probably do a far better job of preparedness and planning for both natural disasters and homeland security than FEMA and DHS are doing alone. I design all this in my mind... and then log on to your website and discover that before I was born, all this actually existed under the name of Civil Defense! Imagine my shock. Do not yet weep for the Republic, sir, for there are many who would gladly take part in these things if they but knew of them! Indeed, one of the major public responses I see in the media and in public discourse is outrage over the interference of FEMA in citizen-organized rescue operations. I think this is the first time people have really noticed government interference in basic civil society... and many of the calls for the FEMA director's head are for ignoring or discouraging civilian responses in favor of less efficient professional responses. So let us resurrect Civil Defense: "...The old that is strong does not wither, Deep roots are not reached by the frost. From the ashes a fire shall be woken, A light from the shadows shall spring..." ...but per your comments on Republic and Empire, I think we can do without the king. With all due respect to Professor Tolkien, there are better places to put our trust than in the blood of the Dunedain. |