![\"bubbles\"](\"https:\/\/www.jerrypournelle.com\/chaosmanor\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/bubbles.gif\")
<\/p> <\/p>\n Sunday, December 4, 2016 <\/p>\n
If Republicans want to force through massive tax cuts, we will fight them tooth and nail. <\/p>\n
Senator Elizabeth Warren <\/p>\n
Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide. <\/p>\n
James Burnham <\/p>\n
<\/b>If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war. <\/p>\n
Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983 <\/p>\n
\u201cDeriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.\u201d <\/p>\n
Immigration without assimilation is invasion. <\/b> <\/p>\n
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Roberta is home and we are frantically rebuilding to accommodate her confinement to a wheelchair. She is recovering, a bit slower than I did, but we\u2019re confident that it\u2019s only a question of time. It has been a rather frantic week, bringing her home and setting up to dare for her, and I am behind on essays; I also have works of fiction to work on, and I got dome of that done, but I can only do one thing at a time, and if interrupted I take a while to resume focus. That sounds like an excuse, and I grew up not to make excuses; but while there are never adequate excuses, there are sometimes expiations. <\/p>\n
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Things to remember when considering free trade. <\/p>\n
There are always nice things you want to do for your workers. Minimum wages are one of them. High minimum wages coupled with free trade produces a paradox. If you require minimum wages in all your factories, companies will compete to bring other costs down; one way they will compete is to raise productivity: to make more widgets with a smaller work force. This means fewer jobs. <\/p>\n
If you also have free trade, and you trading partner does not require a minimum wage, he will generally produce widgets cheaper than you can make them; particularly if you keep raising the minimum wage. Surely this is obvious? You continue to raise productivity and employ more robots who do not get minimum wages or annual raises, and perhaps you can compete with your overseas trading partner who has neither minimum wages nor annual raises, so you stay in business; but you do so with fewer workers. This is efficiency, but those who used to work for you must be supported: food stamps, free \u201csurplus\u201d foods grown and bought at government price support prices (it\u2019s cheaper to give them away than to store them), unemployment compensation, government retirement, etc. That means taxes on everyone including those who do not want or need widgets; or of course you can put a sales tax on widgets, including imported widgets, and hope the need for widgets is great enough to keep the widget market healthy. <\/p>\n
Now comes a regulation requiring all businesses to give healthcare insurance to all employees. If it applies only to businesses with x or fewer employees, this will work to prevent widget businesses from ever growing past X employees; again limiting the number of people employed. We can also add various health and safety regulations, and inspectors to come around periodically and enforce them. They will have to be paid, of course, either out of the general fund or from the revenue from widget sales taxes. Meanwhile, your trading partner, who has neither minimum wages nor health and safety requirements, continues to export widgets. We can expand the complexities, but surely the point is clear? <\/p>\n
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There were two relevant articles in the Saturday Wall Street Journal. <\/p>\n
First, Peggy Noonan\u2019s weekly column entitled \u201cTrump\u2019s Carrier Coup and a Lesson From JFK<\/a>\u201d will be interesting to those who do not remember John Kennedy\u2019s experiences with business, about which he knew nothing. (He never had a paycheck from anyone but government, and he didn\u2019t cash those; he endorsed them and gave then to charity.) It isn\u2019t long, and it\u2019s worth reading. <\/p>\n On the same page is a column by Holman Jenkins, Jr., not my favorite journalist, called \u201cTrump\u2019s Charm of Not Being Obama<\/a>\u201d which injects some much needed realism into the energy debates. It is very well done, and perhaps Mr. Jenkins\u2019 best work this year, also well worth your time. <\/p>\n If the goal is to increase jobs and people working, cheap energy and fewer regulations and restrictions is the way to bring it about. There are many wonderful things you can do for workers, but requiring companies to do them is more likely to shrink the work force than grow it; and free trade will accelerate that unless your trade partners give their workers equivalent goodies. That is why Free Trade with England is not like Free Trade with China or Mexico. But surely you knew that? <\/p>\n And I will say it again: doubling the size of the number of employees exempted from various laws and regulation \u2013 as in this regulation applies to companies with 10 or more employees, making it 20, and if 20 making it 40, etc. \u2013 is the quickest and simplest way to raise employment. <\/p>\n Aleta Jackson, RIP<\/b> http:\/\/www.transterrestrial.com\/?p=66229<\/a> <\/p>\n She was the executive secretary of the L-5 Society; later I recommended her to General Graham where she did invaluable service in his High Frontier organization. Her biography is well told in the announcement, and I will miss her greatly. Farewell, good and faithful friend. <\/p>\n Global Warming Explained Please <\/p>\n Dear Dr. Pournelle, One of the problems is disagreement on just what facts we have. I have been required to measure temperatures to a tenth of a degree (both C and F) and I found it very difficult and expensive; yet we discuss tenths of a degree differences in average year-round global temperature, and most of those discussing that seem to have no notion of the difficulty of obtaining that data. I give you one example: what is the average temperature of your back yard over a 24 hour period? Surely easier to measure than the average temperature of the entire Earth for a year, no? But if you attempt to discover it, you will find it no easy task. Take a copper globe, four inches in diameter, and put a good thermocouple inside it. Solder the thermocouple to a dime sized disk of thin copper, and let that hang free in the center of the globe. (While you are at it, put another thermocouple soldered to a small copper disk inside a beaker of ice water, preferably all water including the ice having been distilled. This will serve as the reference temperature and presumed to be 0 degrees C.) Hang the globe out where it will be exposed to the sky day and night. <\/p>\n You will notice that your temperatures will vary considerably from day to day, and even hour to hour. You are getting a combination of conductive air temperature and the radiation environment temperature, and while air temperature varies more slowly, the radiant temperature varies a lot, and quite quickly, depending on cloud cover. When there are clouds in daytime the temperature will be lower than when it is exposed to the sun. At night it\u2019s even more variant; the radiant temperature of clear night sky is some -270 degrees; the Romans used to make ice cream in the desert by taking advantage of this. The radiant temperature of cloudy environment will be much higher. OK, put you thermometer in the shade; but have you really got the temperature now? Just what is the temperature of your back yard averaged over a 24 hour period? Your answer will depend on how you measure it. Now look at the source temperatures fed into the climate models. <\/p>\n I could list some more problems; but my point is that the \u201cconsensus\u201d of the scientists includes people who never think about measurements and how they are obtained. The models are not sensitive to cloud cover. And if we try to compare temperatures from long ago to today\u2019s, none of those from long ago \u2013 even fifty years ago \u2013 were accurate to a tenth of a degree. In the 12800\u2019s and for much of the 20th<\/sup> Century, sea temperatures were taken by drawing up a bucket of water and measuring it with a hand-held mercury thermometer. At night, by a seaman who didn\u2019t have a magnifying glass. <\/p>\n Part of the consensus comes from the agreement of many models; they nearly all use the same inputs, and they give the same predictions. They all attempt to account for all known energy sources, but of course those aren\u2019t all predictable. The year 1816 is known as \u201cThe Year without a Summer\u201d (also known as 1800 and froze to death). This is because the volcano Tambura blew off and polluted the Earth\u2019s atmosphere, reflecting sunlight that normally would have reached Earth; the result was year round winter. The models could not have predicted that, nor could they predict most other volcanic eruptions. As an aside, Benjamin Franklin, observing an Icelandic volcano pouring gup into the sky that reached England and beyond, proposed the theory that something like this caused the Ice Ages. <\/p>\n No one sane denies that raising the CO2 levels without limit would have great and very likely deleterious effects on Earth\u2019s climate. If those levels get a good bit higher, something ought to be done. We were told the Iraq war would cost $300 Billion. I said at the time that for that much I could build 100 1000 megawatt nuclear power plants (the first ones would cost maybe $15 billion, but by the time we had 20 or so they would be more like 1 or 2 billion each, leaving plenty of money to mine Uranium); with that power we could tell the Arabs to drink their oil, and build plants to take whatever amount of Carbon we liked out of the atmosphere. Of course that wasn\u2019t done, the war cost far more than $300 billion, but that\u2019s for another discussion. <\/p>\n We know that in historical times the Earth has been warmer than it is now. In Viking times. Leif the Lucky and his cohorts built dairy farms in Greenland that are still covered by ice; and the Vikings planted a colony on Nova Scotia which they called Vinland because they could grow grapes and make wine there. Needless to say it\u2019s still to cold to grow grapes in Vinland. In those Viking times we find middle European monastery records of longer growing seasons, and we find similar records of agricultural yields in China. It was warmer in Viking times. We have pretty good evidence of a Roman Warm period, and of climate variations during the Bronze age. It is unlikely that human CO2 contributions caused those. I don\u2019t know what did, but it seems clear that in historical times we have been warmer. <\/p>\n Clearly it has been colder. In 1776 cannon were brought across the frozen Hudson River to the relief of General George Washington in Harlem Heights, thus saving the Continental Army and the Revolution. The Hudson hasn\u2019t frozen hard enough to walk on, much less drag cannon across it, for a century. <\/p>\n It has been warmer and colder in historic times. The models say there is a sudden great rise in temperature now, but the data don\u2019t show it. <\/p>\n And in a way it\u2019s all irrelevant anyway: give me enough electric power and I\u2019ll take the Carbon out of the atmosphere if we have to do that, and if we don\u2019t have to and it\u2019s getting colder again, I\u2019ll have power to heat homes. Our Climate Problem is an economic and energy problem, and that\u2019s true whether we are in for warming or cooling. <\/p>\n Erik Verlinde’s Gravity Minus Dark Matter | Quanta Magazine <\/p>\n Might not be dark matter out there after all. Maybe we just don’t understand gravity. <\/p>\n > But the dark matter hypothesis assumes scientists know how matter in the sky ought to move in the first place. This month, a series of developments has revived a long-disfavored argument that dark matter doesn\u2019t exist after all. In this view, no missing matter is needed to explain the errant motions of the heavenly bodies; rather, on cosmic scales, gravity itself works in a different way than either Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein predicted. <\/p>\n https:\/\/www.quantamagazine.org\/20161129-verlinde-gravity-dark-matter\/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits<\/a> <\/p>\n Thanks, <\/p>\n John<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n I have long said that until we understand gravity better, we should not adopt a new physics and assume 75% of the universe is invisible\u2026 <\/p>\n ‘My research was attacked by thought police in journalism, activist groups funded by billionaires and even the White House.’ <\/p>\n <http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/my-unhappy-life-as-a-climate-heretic-1480723518<\/a>> <\/p>\n ————————————— <\/p>\n Roland Dobbins<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n In this Land of the Free. I thought the point of university tenure had to do with free exchange of ideas, but apparently it\u2019s just more rent seeking. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Poems from Paradoctor <\/p>\n Hsin Ku and Quads<\/b> <\/p>\n By Nathaniel Hellerstein <\/p>\n <\/strong>New classic poem form; \u201cLet Reason rule Rhyme,\u201d I admit that I couldn\u2019t resist some sardonicism there. I hope<\/i> <\/b>much vaster! A single look reveals: Me, praise a pearl? O love, we wonder; Mr. Fan wanted poems in honor of an ancient Chinese king who prayed for world peace. Alas, I could not resist delivering the following snark:<\/p>\n \u201cMay all war cease,\u201d There are also \u201cquad\u201d poems, which are hsin-ku with 4 letters per word, abab rhyme, and telegraphic grammar. Here are some:<\/p>\n This quad poem form; Don\u2019t rule over rime! Hill tent camp rest Dear love, what song I also composed these science-fictional hsin-ku and quads:<\/p>\n Science, myth and fantasy Don\u2019t take time trip! This book make slip; \u201cThis plug,\u201d says punk Just what does Zugs \u201cWe come in peace,\u201d Said robot to man Build cities in space? \u201cWhat is true reality? \u201cI seek your boss,\u201d Why read science fantasy <\/p>\n The Trump Carrier Deal <\/p>\n Carrier gets $7 Million in tax incentives. <\/p>\n If average Carrier employee salary =$23\/hr x 40 = $920\/wk x 52= $49k\/yr x 1000 jobs =$49Million <\/p>\n Federal Income Tax paid by 1000 employees = $7,350,000\/yr <\/p>\n State Income Tax paid by 1000 employees = $1,127,000 <\/p>\n That leaves ~$40 Million\/yr that people have to spend in the local economy and bills. <\/p>\n Only an idiot would think this is a bad deal. <\/p>\n No wonder Trump made all the other candidates look like silly children. <\/p>\n Of course, employees don’t concern themselves with details like these. <\/p>\n Obama administration is more concerned with “Bathroom Bills”, Muslims and <\/p>\n continual stupid race dialog. <\/p>\n Trump Protesters don’t have jobs (That’s why they have time and energy to protest.) <\/p>\n so they don’t pay income tax. <\/p>\n The Carrier deal is the kind of policy change every working American has been waiting for. <\/p>\n ericsabo<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n “British officers don’t duck!” <\/p>\n https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=GrauBQf7FpI<\/a> <\/p>\n With examples, historical testimony, and explanations as to why. <\/p>\n Fascinating. <\/p>\n He’s cheeky, but quite serious and worth hearing out, this Lindy beige chap. <\/p>\n Petronius<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Stephen Hawking: AI will automate middle class jobs – Business Insider <\/p>\n I think he is spot on and understating the danger to society. <\/p>\n We\u2019ll have Univ Basic Income and a lot of people spending most of their lives in boredom with nothing to do and no sense of accomplishment. Drug use will soar. We think our schools are bad now. Wait until no one has any real reason to get a good grades since they have no future to worry about. 77% of China\u2019s population with no work is really worrisome. <\/p>\n I see this as a far greater threat to our survival as a species than climate change will ever be. <\/p>\n A report put out in February 2016 by Citibank in partnership with the University of Oxford predicted that 47% of US jobs are at risk of automation. In the UK, 35% are. In China, it’s a whopping 77% \u2014 while across the OECD it’s an average of 57%.<\/p> \n<\/p> \n\n
First I am very happy to hear your wife (and you!) are doing better! I have read your columns since the Byte days and truly enjoy your style and content. With that in mind, would you please take a crack at explaining what is and is not scientifically known about Global Warming in laymen’s terms? There has been a huge amount of discussion on your site about it, but to be honest I am left with a rather murky picture of what is and is not fact vs. theory.
Thanks in advance!
Robert Porter <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/p> \n\n
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In May of 1993, I participated in a poetry festival at Lincoln University, then in San Francisco. At this conference, Dr. Kenneth Fan called for poems of a new form: \u201cHsin Ku\u201d, or \u201cNew Classic\u201d. Its form and rules are summarized by these two hsin-ku I wrote:<\/strong><\/p>\n
four words, four lines
Any topic, any image
Second, fourth near rhymes. <\/p>\n
Decreed the sage Master,
\u201cSo our audience be
(I hope) much vaster.\u201d<\/p>\n
Here are some more:<\/p>\n
Airplane left, bird right
Climbing, crossing; silent passage
In the evening light.<\/p>\n
Or its owner, ma\u2019am?
Or its inner grit?
I praise the clam!<\/p>\n
Through you, I\u2019m wise;
How deeper we see
Than only two eyes!<\/p>\n
The high lord sings;
But when there\u2019s peace
Then who needs kings?<\/p>\n
Four word, four time
Four each word; also
Even line good rime.<\/p>\n
You\u2019d feel like fool
When even this time
Says rime over rule.<\/p>\n
Even dark sees afar
Late nite view best
Land, lake, moon, star.<\/p>\n
What best true rime
Will show them long
This love thru time?<\/p>\n
Future joy and sorrow;
Dreamer, come enchant me
With life beyond tomorrow.<\/p>\n
Push days into spin
Make just tiny slip
You\u2019d ain\u2019t even been.<\/p>\n
They don\u2019t show rite
That move that ship
More fast than lite.<\/p>\n
(make such huge deal)
\u201cfill head with junk
That ain\u2019t even real.\u201d<\/p>\n
From afar star hurl
With eyes like bug\u2019s
Want with Urth girl?<\/p>\n
The green man said.
\u201cCame we for war
You\u2019d all be dead.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cYou low human slob!
Behold my evil plan;
I\u2019ll take your job!\u201d<\/p>\n
It doesn\u2019t seem fair
Pay owners of place
Food, rent \u2013 and air.<\/p>\n
Computer, say the word!\u201d
It answered with finality,
\u201cYour question is absurd.\u201d<\/p>\n
The star man sings.
\u201cThat is your loss;
We have no kings.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mostly thud and blunder?
I seek marvels, mystery,
Vision, sense of wonder.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/p> \n\n
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And three of the world’s 10 largest employers are now replacing their workers with robots.
Automation will, “in turn will accelerate the already widening economic inequality around the world,” Hawking wrote. “The internet and the platforms that it makes possible allow very small groups of individuals to make enormous profits while employing very few people. This is inevitable, it is progress, but it is also socially destructive.” <\/p>\n