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We are reviving Chaos Manor Reviews. http:\/\/chaosmanorreviews.com\/<\/a> There will be a lot more there as time goes on.<\/p>\n My Surface Pro is installing a major upgrade; I infer that since it is only 22% done, and it has been a while since it started. I presume it is a new build of Windows 10; I also note that my Windows 7 systems want me to reserve upgrade to 10. This looks to be a big deal. Hmm. The Surface is restarting. I\u2019ll see. Ah. After restart it\u2019s 32% done. A major build all right. Fortunately the Surface Pro 3 is not a main machine\u2026<\/p>\n OK through trundling, restarting and such. No build number. Must be the release.<\/p>\n 1952: OK it\u2019s the release candidate. I\u2019ll explore it over the weekend and something to say about it in Chaos Manor Reviews.<\/p>\n Had good story conference with SKYPING Wednesday. My 2008 Mac Book Pro died (power failed) quite suddenly after two hours plus, so I thought I would replace it. <\/i>Just checked, and yes, there is a replaceable battery as well as a replaceable hard disk back there; I wondered because there was no way to replace the Air\u2019s battery. With the Pro \u2013 this Pro at least \u2013 it\u2019s push pull click click; I just checked. Now I have to figure out what year it is \u2013 there are apparently several different sizes depending on year, and I don\u2019t remember exactly when I got the Pro; around 2008, and that was the year of my brain cancer, and my memories are a bit fuzzy. I\u2019ll find out. The price seems to be between $50 and $100.<\/p>\n Performance on a new Pro would be better I suppose but for what I do with that Mac would not be particularly noticed. <\/p>\n Ah, About This Mac says it\u2019s a late 2008 15\u201d running Yosemite. On line price seems to be about $100, although I still haven\u2019t found what Apple sells them for; my Mac experts tell me stick with Apple. No hurry in any event. Alas I suppose I\u2019ll have to replace the Air with its swollen battery, but the latest Surface Windows 10 Build is encouraging, and a tablet with OneNote is better than an Air for the kind of research I do away from my desk. Since there are obviously several hours of battery life in this 7 year old MacBook Pro which I don\u2019t use as a portable anyway, I suspect I get a mains outlet on an extension cord for living room SKYPING and otherwise do nothing\u2026<\/p>\n The Heritage Foundation on the Iran \u201cDeal\u201d (a kind of agreement with a foreign power unknown until recently) had this to say:<\/p>\n The deal the Obama administration reached with Iran is one of the worst in history, according to Heritage Foundation defense expert Jim Carafano<\/a>:<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Proponents of the Deal say it stops Iran from having the bomb anytime soon, but I see nothing in it that would make that impossible or even very difficult except Iranian intentions; apparently Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry believe they have persuaded Iran not to go for a bomb, at least not on their watch. That would be powerful diplomacy. <\/p>\n Inspection requires notice, and no American Inspectors are allowed at all.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-3165063\/US-inspectors-banned-Iranian-nuclear-sites-controversial-deal-amid-warnings-American-experts-tell-cheating.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Some say it\u2019s a brilliant act of diplomacy by diplomatic masters. <\/p>\n Putin\u2019s Brilliant Diplomacy to Bring West, Iran to Negotiations Table<\/p>\n Le Huffington Post columnist Didier Chaudet analyzed Russia\u2019s decision to sell Iran the S-300 missile defense system. The deal is not about mere economics, but a series of complex, chess-like moves successfully implemented by the Russian government to bring the West and Iran to the negotiation table.<\/p>\n Read more: http:\/\/sputniknews.com\/analysis\/20150505\/1021747686.html#ixzz3gBojssZU<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Why I\u2019ll vote in favor of the Iran nuclear deal<\/b><\/p>\n 07\/14\/15 01:23 PM <\/p>\n By Rep. Donald Beyer<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/msnbc\/why-ill-vote-favor-the-iran-nuclear-deal<\/a><\/p>\n The historic accord to close off Iran\u2019s pathways to a nuclear bomb<\/a> is an enormous win for U.S. national security and President Obama. In the coming weeks, I plan to vote in support of this landmark achievement and urge my colleagues to do the same.<\/p>\n I witnessed firsthand the transformative power of diplomacy as ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein. I commend our diplomats for skillfully averting a global showdown with Iran as part of a deal that blocks its efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon. <snip><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Congress can vote to reject this \u201cdeal\u201d but Obama has vowed to veto any such rejection. I presume that somewhere in the Pentagon there is a group studying a world with a nuclear Iran. this process of Presidential agreements without advice and consent of the Senate, with the President able to veto Congressional disapproval is a recent Constitutional discovery, unknown through most of the history of the Republic.<\/p>\n Maunder Minimum Subject Francis Gingras<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n http:\/\/arstechnica.com\/science\/2015\/07\/the-maunder-minimum-is-back-maybe-and-we-probably-wont-notice\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The arstechnica piece says that the Little Ice Age was caused by volcanoes, not solar variation. This was, interestingly, a theory first published by Benjamin Franklin after he witnessed volcanic dust from Iceland extended a long way; he was sailing to England. And we know that 1816, the Year Without a Summer, was almost certainly caused by the Tambora eruption, which injected reflective particles into the atmosphere and thus changed the Earth\u2019s albedo. More solar radiation was reflected and thus did not reach the Earth.<\/p>\n The models of solar activity predict a new minimum in solar activity. The models have been validated against observation back to as long as we have observation. They are pretty accurate. Whether decreased solar activity has much relationship to solar output \u2013 and thus to irradiation received by Earth \u2013 is not so clear. We do know that the variance in solar radiation is tiny compared to the output of the sun \u2013 but that tiny variance exceeds all the other sources of thermal addition to the Earth\u2019s eco-system, including warming from the interior (due to radioactive element decay in the core). Tiny \u2013 relative to solar output \u2013 variations in solar output have a large effect on climate. Whether sunspots indicate increased total solar input to the Earth is not so well understood, since we do not have sunspot records for more than a few hundred years, and we do not have accurate records of Earth temperature for more than a century (defining accurate to a degree C or less).<\/p>\n http:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/Features\/SORCE\/sorce_03.php<\/a><\/p>\n Daily variation in solar output is due to the passage of sunspots across the face of the Sun as the Sun rotates on its axis about once a month. These daily changes can be even larger than the variation during the 11-year solar cycle. However, such short-term variation has little effect on climate. The graph above shows total solar irradiance on a daily basis. The plot is based on data collected by the ACRIM III instrument, which is currently in orbit. (Graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from ACRIM III<\/a>)<\/p>\n Variations in TSI are due to a balance between decreases caused by sunspots and increases caused by bright areas called faculae which surround sunspots. Sunspots are dark blotches on the Sun in which magnetic forces are very strong, and these forces block the hot solar plasma, and as a result sunspots are cooler and darker than their surroundings. Faculae, which appear as bright blotches on the surface of the Sun, put out more radiation than normal and increase the solar irradiance. They too are the result of magnetic storms, and their numbers increase and decrease in concert with sunspots. On the whole, the effects of the faculae tend to beat out those of the sunspots. So that, although solar energy reaching the Earth decreases when the portion of the Sun\u2019s surface that faces the Earth happens to be rife with spots and faculae, the total energy averaged over a full 30-day solar rotation actually increases. Therefore the TSI is larger during the portion of the 11 year cycle when there are more sunspots, even though the individual spots themselves cause a decrease in TSI when facing Earth.<\/p>\n <snip><\/p>\n Another trend scientists have picked up on appears to span several centuries. Late 17th century astronomers observed that no sunspots existed on the Sun\u2019s surface during the time period from 1650 to 1715 AD. This lack of solar activity, which some scientists attribute to a low point in a multiple-century-long cycle, may have been partly responsible for the Little Ice Age in Europe. During this period, winters in Europe were much longer and colder than they are today. Modern scientists believe that since this minimum in solar energy output, there has been a slow increase in the overall sunspots and solar energy throughout each subsequent 11-year cycle.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n\n
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US inspectors will be banned from all Iranian nuclear sites under controversial deal amid warnings ‘only American experts can tell if they are cheating’<\/h3>\n
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Hi Jerry,
With the constant hyperbole surrounding climate discussions, it’s hard for a non-scientist to get a solid sense of a writer’s objectivity. For instance, Ars Technica’s science writer says the maunder minimum is not an important factor on climate even if true.
I like reading Ars, but I’ve noticed its science writer is often (always?) at odds with your views. I’ve read everything you wrote here for over a decade so I value your opinion quite a bit, but I’d also like to read the opposite view. My problem is finding a source I trust. Do you have any advice on how a non-scientist can see through these issues without getting misinformed too much?
Thank you!<\/p>\n\n
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