Investment in infrastructure; SECURITY WARNING MESSAGE

View 764 Thursday, February 28, 2013

SEQUESTRATION FRIDAY IS COMING

Doom Doom Doom Doom Doom

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It is a common axiom in political economics that investments that produce no revenue can lead to disaster. Examples are big stadiums, desert land developments, and the like. The history of Spanish economics is instructive. Under Franco, Spain had a long period of economic growth, including periods in which Spain led the world in economic growth rates. After Franco died the new government indulged in a frenzy of development, producing a bubble and economic collapse. Examples (1) (2). Another example is China, which has managed state capitalism extraordinarily well, but has also indulged in showcase projects: :

The authors cite the city of Loudi, in Hunan Province, which has used CDB’s loans to build a costly 30,000-seat "Olympic" stadium, adorned with the trademark rings, even though the city lacks a professional sports team. Infrastructure loans that produce no cash flows, such as Loudi’s, create the potential for a banking crisis in China. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324445904578286913921668472.html

State capitalism can be effective. Mussolini demonstrated that and garnered the admiration of a good part of the world including that of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and did so while remaining a committed Socialist. Some of his projects were for show and glamour, others were genuine infrastructure investments. As von Mises points out, opulence can have economic value, an example being the various cultural institutions of Vienna which made Austria a far more important country than her actual wealth would warrant. Proponents of free enterprise argue that over time state capitalism doesn’t win against freedom, but history shows that it can do pretty well and last generations. The key is the intention of the investments, and the management of cash flow.

Turn now to education. Would anyone argue that spending on education is not an infrastructure investment? Its purpose is to increase economic efficiency, lower the cost of government, and such like. The return on that investment takes a while, but the ultimate intent is to increase the national cash flow.

Infrastructure investments that produce no economic return can be disastrous. You can make a good case for the proposition that the most important infrastructure investment made by any State of this Union is in the education system.

“If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would consider it an act of war,” said Nobel laureate Glenn T. Seaborg in 1983. The system has since received huge investments. It has not improved. The quality of education appears to be independent of the investments made in it, at least to a first approximation. Increases in spending on education don’t produce consistent improvements, and cuts in the system don’t seem to matter much either. Other factors govern.

Meanwhile:

The $85 billion in spending that will eventually be cut after the sequester kicks in amounts to around two cents on the dollar in the overall federal budget. That hasn’t kept Mr. Obama and his team from trying to scare the bejesus out of Americans about the spending reductions.

On Friday, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said he’d have to furlough 5,000 air-traffic controllers. On Saturday, the president warned in his weekly radio address that thousands of teachers "will be laid off," and "tens of thousands of parents will have to scramble to find child care."

On Sunday, the White House released a report for each state detailing how many unsafe bridges would be left unrepaired. On Monday, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar threatened to close all National Park campgrounds. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said she’d have to sideline 5,000 border agents. Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced it would release from detention several hundred illegal immigrants.

This is all hogwash. After the sequester, this fiscal year’s federal budget ($3.553 trillion) will still be larger than last year’s ($3.538 trillion). Last year, the border was patrolled, emergency responders arrived when called, and airplanes left on time and landed safely.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324662404578329862541820272.html

The largest single item in most state budgets is education. Instead of thrashing around with concerns about the dire effects of sequestration, perhaps we ought to turn some intention on education that produces a future revenue flow? But in California the governor proposes to take money from the successful schools and put it into the poor schools that need it so much. And there we are.

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The plain consequence is (and it is a general maxim worthy of our attention), ‘That no testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood would be more miraculous, than the fact, which it endeavours to establish….’ When anyone tells me, that he saw a dead man restored to life, I immediately consider with myself, whether it be more probable, that this person should either deceive or be deceived, or that the fact, which he relates, should really have happened. I weigh the one miracle against the other; and according to the superiority, which I discover, I pronounce my decision, and always reject the greater miracle. If the falsehood of his testimony would be more miraculous, than the event which he relates; then, and not till then, can he pretend to command my belief or opinion.

David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding

I found this in another place in a discussion of the origin of Carl Sagan’s aphorism that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I have also heard the idea attributed to LaPlace and Descartes. In ESCAPE FROM HELL we have Sylvia Plath comment to Carl Sagan “Descartes, surely?” when he makes his famous claim.

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Education

My boss, when I returned to lab work after three years of clinical medicine in 1976, was German, Jewish and had got out of Munich to Britain in 1937. Having lived through hyper inflation, persecution and the rest, one of his aphorisms was "There is only one thing worth investing in and that is the education of your children". Advice that I took to heart without regret.

Robert Forrest

Well said. It refers to my short disquisition on education and the importance of learning to read before going into the school system (yesterday’s View).

 

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"They were something we thought we mostly understood by now, the first discovery of the Space Age."

<http://www.space.com/20004-earth-radiation-belt-discovery.html>

Roland Dobbins

We continue to learn how much we do not know yet. Few theories on Earth’s interaction with space are certain.

 

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death

Dr. Pournelle:

A warning to your readers that may have Hotmail accounts…..Reset your password now!

This is a widespread attack, and lots of Hotmail accounts appear to have been compromised. The result is that ‘you’ will send out a message to all of your contacts, the message will probably have malware attached, or a link to malware. Exploits to Hotmail accounts are widely available.

An article about this attack is here http://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2012/04/27/microsoft-rushes-out-fix-after-hackers-change-passwords-to-hack-hotmail-accounts/ .

If your account has been hacked, then you should

1) Reset passwords on all of your accounts . Don’t use the same password everywhere.

2) Check your computer for malware by doing a full anti-virus scan. Make sure your antivirus is current. If you don’t have an antivirus, the free Microsoft Security Essentials is a good start.

3) Watch your financial accounts for suspicious activity. Change your PIN and passwords to all financial accounts

4) Ensure you have the latest Microsoft updates. Install them now.

5) Remove Java (not Javascript) from your computer. If you must use Java for a legitimate purpose, use Firefox, which will automatically disable Java and require you to manually enable for applications that need it.

6) Ensure all of your software is current. A really good tool is the free-for-personal-use Personal Software Inspector from Secunia (www.secunia.com )

7) Do this for any computer you access.

8) If your Hotmail account is compromised, send a notice to all of your contacts (use BCC, not CC or To; that hides your contact list from others). Suggest they follow the above steps on their computer.

9) Consider an on-line backup solution for your personal and critical files. The cost is affordable; I use Carbonite (www.carbonite.com) which automatically backs up my computer data.

Be careful out there!

Rick Hellewell, a computer security guy.

atom  This was an old message but one of my advisors who is fairly careful was hit with an attack last night. It’s going around again. 

 

 

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Major Comet Impact On Mars Possible Next Year

Jerry,

Via Instapundit, this story on a recently discovered large comet that will be doing a close pass by Mars in October 2014. The comet’s diameter and course are still not precisely known – it could hit Mars, and if it does it’ll be a major impact, what would be an "extinction-level event" if it happened on Earth. Even if it does miss, it should be spectacular, at least as observed by the various Mars probes.

http://astronomyaggregator.com/solar-system/large-comet-to-buzz-mars-impact-possible/

Henry

 

 

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Sequestration Kabuki takes a dangerous turn. Michelle Obama and the Oscars. A few words on education.

View 764 Wednesday, February 27, 2013

“Do not ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.”

— Napoleon Bonaparte

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Mass Release of Immigrants Is Tied to Impending Cuts

Federal immigration officials have released hundreds of detainees from detention centers around the country in recent days in a highly unusual effort to save money as automatic budget cuts loom in Washington, officials said Tuesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/us/immigrants-released-ahead-of-automatic-budget-cuts.html?_r=0

BOB WOODWARD: Obama Is Showing ‘A Kind Of Madness I Haven’t Seen In A Long Time’

The Washington Post‘s Bob Woodward ripped into President Barack Obama on "Morning Joe" today, saying he’s exhibiting a "kind of madness I haven’t seen in a long time" for a decision not to deploy an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf because of budget concerns.

"Can you imagine Ronald Reagan sitting there and saying, ‘Oh, by the way, I can’t do this because of some budget document?’" Woodward said.

“Or George W. Bush saying, ‘You know, I’m not going to invade Iraq because I can’t get the aircraft carriers I need?’" Or even Bill Clinton saying, ‘You know, I’m not going to attack Saddam Hussein’s intelligence headquarters,’ … because of some budget document?"

The Defense Department said in early February that it would not deploy the U.S.S. Harry Truman to the Persian Gulf, citing budget concerns relating to the looming cuts known as the sequester.

"Under the Constitution, the President is commander-in-chief and employs the force. And so we now have the President going out because of this piece of paper and this agreement. ‘I can’t do what I need to do to protect the country,’" Woodward said.

"That’s a kind of madness that I haven’t seen in a long time," he said.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-woodward-obama-sequester-republicans-2013-2#ixzz2M8Ad82th

The New York Times headlines about the early release of 30,000 prisoners in anticipation of the sequester had been out several hours. It caused mutterings about impeachment – after all, this is an illegal act. Congress has mandated the detainments and appropriated the funds, yet criminals are being released into the population. Take care that the laws are faithfully enforced and all that.

Shortly after that, the White House announced that the releases were not due to the President, nor even to the Secretary of Homeland Security. They were the actions of career bureaucrats in ICE, and the President only learned about them by reading it in the newspapers. Neither he nor his cabinet were aware that this was coming. I am astonished that the President would admit that this sort of thing can go on with no one held responsible for it.

I don’t usually follow breaking news, but this did seem unusual. Doubtless you will hear more as the story unfolds.

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The fact remains that the Federal Government will spend $15 billion more this year than last, and 30% more than was spent in 2007.

Phil Gramm: Obama and the Sequester Scare

Governing isn’t about blaming someone else. It is about choosing.

. . .

The first Gramm-Rudman sequester took effect on March 1, 1986. It cut nondefense spending by 4.3% and defense spending by 4.9%.

The most recent estimate by the Congressional Budget Office for this year’s sequester is that nondefense spending will be cut by 4.6% and defense spending will be cut by 7.9%. While the sequester will reduce spending authority by $85 billion, the actual cuts that will occur in 2013 will be $44 billion. That is a mere 1.2% of total federal spending this year.

The first round of cuts under Gramm-Rudman weren’t so devastating that Congress and the president rushed to repeal them. In July 1986, Congress had the opportunity simply to stop the sequester after the Supreme Court invalidated its triggering mechanism. Instead it voted overwhelmingly to reaffirm the across-the-board cuts. The vote in the Democratic House was 339 to 72, and the Republican Senate approved it by acclamation, not deeming it worthy of a roll-call vote.

In 1987, Congress fixed the triggering mechanism and restored the sequester in Gramm-Rudman II. That deal would have cut nondefense discretionary spending by 8.5% and defense spending by 10.5%, far greater cuts than will be triggered this year. Yet a Democratic Congress and a Republican White House came together to replace that sequester with spending cuts in fiscal years 1988 and 1989 that were larger than those called for by Gramm-Rudman II.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578327792209356054.html

The Kabuki Theater continues as the President threatens to cut park rangers, first responders, border guards, food inspectors, and air traffic controllers. Bunny inspectors are safe.

Senator Gramm continues

While history shows that a divided government can enact significant spending cuts as an alternative to sequesters, that doesn’t appear to be the path Mr. Obama intends to follow. Instead of protecting civilian defense workers, the president will continue to force the Pentagon to buy biofuels at $27 per gallon to promote his green agenda. Instead of protecting children from cuts in nutrition programs, the president will continue to allow $2.7 billion of fraud and mismanagement he has identified in the food-stamp program. Instead of protecting Medicare from a 2% cut, the president will ignore $62 billion in annual waste that his administration has identified in Medicare and Medicaid.

I can’t wait to see what happens next.

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I am persuaded that the use of the phrase “Big Sister” in my comments on Madam First Lady’s Oscar presentation was inappropriate and denigrates the office. Of course “First Lady” (“First Spouse”?) is not a constitutional office but I understand the point. The Royal Consort holds an important place in the American social system and rightly so. When she appeared on that enormous screen with troops in the background I was reminded of Big Brother in 1984. I won’t apologize for thinking it, but it was not an appropriate thing to say. I have considerable mail including some exchanges of views on this subject and they’ll be in an upcoming Mail. I will agree that Mrs. Obama added glamor to the Oscar ceremony.

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The education crisis continues and no one seems interested. Smart people avoid the school system entirely, or inoculate their children against incompetent reading teachers who don’t know that if a child can’t read by the end of first grade something is very wrong by teaching them to read themselves before they get to school. One way is with Mrs. Pournelle’s Reading Program. I wrote a discussion of what it is and does some time ago, and it is still available. Obviously children can learn to read without any program at all, but this one works and is easy to use even if it’s a bit old fashioned looking. If this program or something like it were used in Head Start a lot of the US education crisis would be ameliorated. I realize that sounds like an outrageous claim, but I have good reason to make it. In my discussion I say

We know of no case in which a student (who knows spoken English) has completed all the lessons of any version of the program and remains unable to read English.

We know of no other software that can repeatedly show a year’s growth in reading ability in four months and under.

The first statement remains true. I am not aware of any contradictions to the second, but I said it many years ago and I have not followed what is now available out there.

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Amazon warns iOS users to not update Kindle app due to glitch

A bug in the e-reader app update erases users’ Kindle libraries from their Apple devices. Amazon says it’s working with Apple to release a fix.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57571544-94/amazon-warns-ios-users-to-not-update-kindle-app-due-to-glitch/

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Thoughts on education

View 764 Tuesday, February 26, 2013

I am apparently in a distinct minority in thinking that the participation of Madam First Lady Michelle Obama in the Oscar ceremony was a partisan political act. It has been pointed out that Hollywood movie exports are important to the American balance of trade, and she made the event more important. Her appearance added to the glamour of the event and she was very right to do that, and if that was also a political advantage, well, having the office of President has its advantages and this was one of them.

I may still have some reservations, particularly about having military personnel participate as background, but I’ll keep them to myself.

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The Los Angeles Times has an important article, “Report: Gaps in learning start early” by Teresa Watanabe in today’s issue, and it presents a number of disturbing facts. I recommend it to your attention because it raises issues that must be dealt with.

It starts with a stark statement:

“African American public school students in Los Angeles County demonstrate significant learning gaps by second grade; those gaps widen with age and lead to the highest school dropout rate among all races, according to a report released Monday.

Black students are far less likely to take the rigorous college preparatory classes required for admission to California universities and miss more school days because of suspensions than their white counterparts, according to the study by The Education Trust-West, an Oakland-based nonprofit advocacy group.

Only one of every 20 African American kindergartners will graduate from a four-year California university if current trends continue, according to the report, which compiled data on academic achievement, suspensions and the psychological conditions of 135,000 black students in 81 public school districts in L.A. County.”

The rest of the article is largely a frantic effort to explain these results without bringing up the IQ gap (a gap of means and medians) between African Americans the mean IQ’s of Whites in America, Asians in America, Chinese in China, and other populations that don’t have many people of African origin. Of course we have become so sensitized that even mentions of this well known IQ gap are considered politically untouchable and are generally labeled as crude racism. Any mention of poor performance by African Americans in anything generally must be accompanied by a plethora of explanations without resort to heredity.

“The report, for instance, cited research findings by the Rand Corp. and Children Now that found African American toddlers were less likely than their white peers to have books at home or be read to everyday. The report also cited 2004 Rand findings that only 13% of black children attended preschools with teachers who have degrees in early childhood education, compared to about 41% for whites and Asians.

Nearly 150,000 children under age 6 are on county waiting lists for child care, according to Children Now, a nonprofit advocacy group. And $1.2 billion in cuts to state funding for those services since 2008-09 budget year has reduced the number of child care spots by 110,000, according to Sydney Kamlager, district deputy director for Assemblywoman Holly J. Mitchell (D-Culver City).”

Other cultural factors are invoked. The one thing that can’t be tried is color blindness.

“Marqueece Harris-Dawson, president of the nonprofit Community Coalition, was a bit more upbeat, saying that although only 20% of African American students in L.A. County take college prep courses, that percentage has nearly tripled in the last decade.

He said the federal government’s move to provide student-achievement data by race in 2001 was a key factor in raising public awareness about the needs of African American students. Last year, a state Assembly committee held hearings on minority males and the academic, economic and health challenges they face.

"As a rule, things get better when people are willing to fight over it," he said.

He added that his organization would continue to push for lower class sizes, courses linked to careers, better college preparation and more effective discipline policies.”

Now we have known for a very long time that throwing money into classrooms and doing conventional things like reducing class sizes and paying teachers more does not do much to improve schools; while courses linked to careers and better college preparation are generally conflicting goals. As to more effective discipline policies, any attempt to impose discipline in classrooms which results in more black students being punished than their statistical numbers would predict will bring about investigations fo racism. Any intimation that disorder in the classroom is generally due to minority students is likely to get the teacher investigated.

The result of this is not good for minority students. California’s policy of requiring Algebra for high school graduation is not good for any of the students in the lower half of the class, minority or majority, Black or White or Asian or Maori: half the students in the school system are below average, and of those the number who will thrive in studies or careers requiring proficiency in Algebra is not likely to be high.

Any attempt to reform education must start with the facts: most of the students will not profitably go to college, and requiring them to take a college prep curriculum will give them less of importance to their lives than would a curriculum devoted to more practical aspects of life. Learning the addition and multiplication tables by rote is not very exciting but it has more practical value for those not college bound than analytical geometry. (Yes: I know that courses derived from algebra and geometry can be very useful for non-college-bound students; there are lots of practical applications to math, but knowing them generally won’t help with college or university physics.)

It seems to me that the first task of those designing an education system is to have a good appreciation of what can be taught to all, and a better understanding of the needs of those who are and who are not going on to what used to be called “higher education.” As an example, nearly all children can be taught to read. When I see statements like:

“The report found that African American students are doing well in some school districts, particularly those with higher concentrations of other races. In the diverse Culver City Unified School District, more than two-thirds of African Americans are at grade level in reading and math, and 88% graduate. Officials there credited more counseling support, a culture of high expectations and targeted actions to support African American students, such as focus groups and teacher training on diversity.”

it scares me. Only 2/3 read at grade level? This means that at least 30% are illiterate, can’t read, have had English words drilled into them the way the multiplication and addition tables ought to have been drilled into them but probably were not. In a school that understands how to teach reading, well over 90% of the students, Black, White, Asian, Maori, Malay, or Hispanic ought to be able to read English at any grade level including high school senior before they reach fifth grade. Granted, they won’t understand all the words they encounter. Polymorphic and antidisestablishmentarianism are not words most would have encountered outside school and probably not within it; but they ought to be able to read them. I grant you that antidisestablishmentarianism is a tough one, but everyone in Capleville school could read it in fourth grade because the teacher thought it a good joke that we should be able to read it. She even explained it to us, although few of us understood what she was saying about the Reformation and its consequences.

If the Culver City Unified School District took this seriously it would see to it that every student could read, and stop keeping racial statistics. All the students ought be able to read, and that particularly includes those who don’t yet speak English. English is easier to read than all its words are to understand.

I also suspect that treating African American students from others – “focus groups and teacher training on diversity” is no favor in the long run to the students, but it probably earns the teachers more money and thus serves its true purpose. The purpose of schools is to pay teachers, as the purpose of government is to pay government workers; it doesn’t start that way but the Iron Law makes it certain given time.

I stubbornly insist that the best way to help students of any background is to be colorblind. But I have thought that since I was about ten years old in the legally segregated South where I was thought a dangerous radical.

Enough. The way to improve schools is to think what they are for. They are to make good citizens of their pupils and students. To do that some need to be prepared for college, but most ought simply to be prepared for a productive life. To accomplish those goals one must first recognize that trying to stuff a world class university prep education into a kid who is far more qualified to be a carpenter is just cruel no matter what race that kid may be.

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The horror at the sequestration continues. We will spend more money this year after the sequester than we did last year, and we will spend more next year than we do this year. The drastic cut will in fact cut no budgets, only in the planned increases to the budgets. The Bunny Inspectors will continue to go to stage shows to be sure magicians are not using rabbits without killing them, and that kids don’t sell a pet rabbit to their neighbors without a federal license. Pension funds will continue to be funded and pensions will rise. Government workers “laid off” will most likely get the money back for the days they missed and thus will be tortured by paid vacations.

There will be show items, such as TSA agents working to the rules to increase the lines and others will work to make life painful so that we won’t dare do this again.  And all this over $60 Billion in a Trillian dollar budget.

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The drumbeats for increased attention to minority children, particularly black, continues.  It is now well known that Head Start doesn’t work, in the sense that it gives no head start.  Perhaps in all that money there might be found some to look for ways to teach teachers to teach children to read.  We know that some people can do it.  We know that in rural Florida, and Tennessee, in the 30’s all the children, black or white, who got through third grade could read: we have the conscription data. There were both white and black illiterate conscripts, but they hadn’t been to school; those who had been to school read well enough to get past the Army’s literacy tests for conscript soldiers.

What did those teachers of old know that we don’t know now?  (Actually, what they knew was that the kids could learn to read, and since they knew that, they taught it.) If we taught children to read in Head Start that would proof them against the condescending teachers they will get later who think that since they, the teachers, can’t teach the kids to read, then there is something wrong with the kid; it can’t possibly be because the teachers don’t know what they are doing.

We know how to teach kids to read. My wife has been doing it all her life. It’s a matter of assumptions and goals and being systematic about it. Her program has been working for decades.  There is plenty of other evidence, but her experience alone covers students from all backgrounds and of all age and all linguistic abilities, and we can safely say: all children of reasonable intelligence (say from dull normal up) can be taught to read the English language in under a year of systematic instruction.  That includes all races, and children with poor English. The large one’s English vocabulary the less time it will take to learn to read, but once learned then one’s speaking vocabulary and reading vocabulary are connected. There’s no such thing as knowing a word you can read.  But it’s dinner time and I have rambled enough and it’s discouraging to see that after all these years the only “solution” they can think of to a bad education system is to keep doing the same thing but spend more money on it.

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Mike Flynn reminds me

The following quote seems apropos:

The society which scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity, and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because philosophy is an exalted activity, will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy. Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water.

– John W. Gardner

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Fort Hood, Republican Establishments,

Mail 764 Monday, February 25, 2013

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Purple Hearts at Ft Hood

Dr. Pournelle,

I am not surprised by the "ruling" that those wounded at Fort Hood are not eligible for the Purple Heart. I don’t think that this is a special case, and I think those unfortunates would have been excluded as ineligible at almost any time in our history. Despite the perp’s purported jihaadist intentions, the injuries were not caused in an act by a declared enemy in a theater of war. In a superset composed of a two-valued system consisting of those wounded who are eligible, and all others, I suppose that the set of the latter includes those with workplace injuries. Someone is winding up their radio listeners.

I am upset about the state of prosecution of Major Hasan. This Court Martial should be completed. Since he is patently and admittedly guilty of several capital counts under the UCMJ, I do not understand why he is still among the living after four years. Military justice used to be administered more quickly than this.

Aid was also promised for the injuries sustained by the civilian police that took him down. I understand those individuals have been let down by the CinC.

-d

The US declared war on terrorism and killed about 100,000 Iraqi’s military and civilian in the subsequent actions.

The Fort Hood victims were on active duty having either just returned from deployment or about to be deployed.

If an American citizen of Chinese origin "volunteer" had shot up Fort Lewis in 1951 in the name of Mao, there being no war at the time — or for that matter there was no declared war in Korea. Does that mean that Korean vets do not rate Purple Hearts for wounds?

Of course I agree that Hassan ought to have been found guilty and hanged by now. He doesn’t deserve the honor of a firing squad.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

My lack of familiarity with the standard is only partly at fault. I do agree that the casualties of the Fort Hood shooting should receive recognition, I did not think they were eligible under the normal rules for the award of the Purple Heart. In the sense that this incident should be treated specially, it should be a special case. My statement was not intended as a judgement on the quality or degree of their sacrifice or patriotism, but just based on what I remember.

To my poor memory, it seemed as if uniformed soldiers wounded or killed out-of-theater, Soviet-sponsored terrorist action were not eligible for decoration — during Vietnam or during the cold war. I never heard of any injury caused by a peace-protester assault that resulted in the award of this particular decoration. I just didn’t believe that this case was different than those.

What makes this particular crime even more heinous is that Hasan was not an Iraqi, Afghani, or declared "member" of Al Qaeda. Up to the first pull of the trigger, he was a comrade-at-arms of his victims.

I had not heard that the Mr. Obama took direct action to deny Purple Heart to anyone eligible for it. If this is the case, I am in complete agreement with, and just as upset as you.

I will remain unsurprised at any incident that abuses this country’s veterans. This is pure cynicism on my part, but based on what I know of history and only partially on my own REMF experience in service.

A personal gripe goes to the losing party last election. The massacre happened almost four years ago and Hasan remains unpunished, it seems the GOP used to be better at making known such poor, careless dereliction by an incumbent CinC. A large part of the responsibility for the re-election must laid at the feet of the opposition.

-d

Yes. My point is that we have a war on “terrorism”. Hassam was a terrorist. He operated here. Purple Hearts were awarded in the Civil War.

Of course the Administration does not want to say that Hassam was a terrorist, or that the massacre was an act of war. It’s a workplace injury.

I made a quick study. It seems Sec Army has the authority to determine Ft. Hood victims eligible for Purple Heart. I don’t know if this was done, or could be done prior to a courts martial verdict on Hasan.

I find this: http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/18/fort-hood-victims-see-similarities-to-benghazi/

"The Department of Defense is still refusing to reclassify the attack, citing the need to maintain the integrity of the legal case against Mr. Hasan. A spokesman for Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, however, did not rule out reevaluating that decision in the future."

I don’t know if the president decreed any other ruling (it would really surprise me to find him actively doing anything).

It seems that the civilians casualties (including the policewoman who shot Hasan) would be eligible for the Defense of Freedom Medal if the ruling was changed.

It seems that Congresspersons can initiate an appeal if an applicant is denied. I would love to see one make some political hay with this issue.

-d

Fort Hood Attack

Dr. Pournelle:

The actions of Major Hasan that led to the deaths and injuries of soldiers at Fort Hood fall within the category of criminal attack, not combat. As such, his actions are considered equivalent to "fragging". Fraggings are neither enemy nor friendly fire related even if the motivation for the ‘fragging’ was due to a real-time or previous enemy-related situation; and as such, not eligible for the Purple Heart.

There is however, nothing stopping the commanders of those soldiers from submitting them for medals of achievement, commendation, or meritorious service for their actions during or recovering from the attack.

The Meritorious Service Medal may be awarded for outstanding achievement or meritorious service to the United States. For Fort Hood, this might be pushing the envelope.

Army Commendation Medal (ARCOM) is awarded to any member of the Armed Forces who distinguishes himself or herself by heroism, meritorious achievement, or meritorious service. I’m fairly certain that would qualify for the Fort Hood victims.

The Army Achievement Medal is awarded while performing in any way with the Army in a non-combat field, distinguished himself/ herself apart from his/her comrades by meritorious service or achievement of a lesser degree than necessary for award of the Army Commendation Medal. Considering the nature of this incident, I might consider this an insult to the men and women killed or injured.

One point to mention is that at least in the Air Force, all of these medals provide various extra points for promotion. Downgrade to a lesser medal can, and has, caused many a military member to be passed over until the next cycle. At this time, that might amount to several thousand dollars for each of the Fort Hood victims or their heirs.

Michael D. Houst, MSgt, USAF (Ret.)

p.s. Fort Hood damn sure wasn’t a workplace accident!

I contend that the Fort Hood massacre was an act of war conducted on US territory, and those involved have every right to combat pay and benefits.

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Sequester Love

Jerry,

I have come to love the sequester, and sincerely hope that it goes through. Having worked for or with the military since the age of 17, I find the idea that DoD can’t easily take a 7% cut laughable. Even better, post-sequester we will have raised Taxes on the 1% and disproportionately cut Defense (half the sequester against 19% of the budget). What’s left after taxing the rich and cutting defense?

Dan Steele

Icepilot

Port Ludlow, WA

It is not an uncommon view and given the size of the cuts on that makes sense. Somehow we have to stop spending so much more than we make.

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ancient myths and recent events

Jerry,

The recent meteor event over Russia sure reminds me of the myth of Phaeton. The chariot of the sun, driven off its usual track by Phaeton, burned both the heavens and the earth, until Jupiter hurled a thunderbolt knocking Phaeton off his chariot. The sun did not shine for a year, mourning his death.

Sure sounds like a shallow angle large meteor entry followed by an impact-generated dust or water vapor overcast, either local or global in effect. A rather spectacular volcano might do the same in reverse if it tossed up a particularly large chunk, but I think the myth sounds a lot closer to a low graze-angle large meteor entry followed by an impact heavy enough to cause either long-term cloud coverage or significant dust in the upper atmosphere.

Sean

I noted that back when I was doing research on an Atlantis novel. The other candidate for Phaeton would be the Thera (Santorini) event, an enormous volcanic eruption that caused tidal waves all over the eastern Mediterranean and clogged the sea with volcanic ash and “floating stone” for a long time. I spent a week with Marinatos at his dig at Akrotira discussing the concept, which was more or less his from a 1938 article speculating that this was the origin of the Atlantis legend (Atlantis was Minoan Crete). I never wrote that novel.

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An interview with ‘the father of global warming’

What I find interesting is that he’s in favor of remediation rather than the destruction of economies.

http://membercentral.aaas.org/blogs/scientia/interview-father-global-warming

I return to accuracies and what we know, which is that the Earth has been both warmer and colder than it is at present in both historical times and a very long time ago.

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Marine generals showing rare dominance of top jobs

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/02/24/marine-generals/1934129/

Traditionally the Navy – with the Marines – belong to the President. If it’s a bigger job than that, you need the Department of War, which is the Army, and belongs to Congress. This got all complicated after the Department of War was abolished, and the Air Force was ripped out of the Army to become its own independent self, leaving support of the field army as a job no one in the Air Force wanted, but which it wouldn’t give to the Army. My last professional job offer was to go to St Louis in 1972 and be part of the team that structured the Army’s air (mostly helicopter of course) force.

The Marines wanted Afghanistan even though it’s far from the sea. It is, after all, a small war, and that’s what the Marines specialize in.

Back in the late 50’s I published an essay pointing out that about 80% of the foreseeable violent incident missions for the United States could be handled by a battalion of Marines with helicopter support – i.e. an oiler, a destroyer, and a medium sized helicopter carrier. I wasn’t the only one to reach that conclusion and we built some.

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11 states with more people on welfare than employed

<http://admin.savage.wp.wnd.com/files/2013/02/130223welfaremap.jpg>

Last month, the Senate Budget Committee reports that in fiscal year 2011, between food stamps, housing support, child care, Medicaid and other benefits, the average U.S. household below the poverty line received $168.00 a day in government support. What’s the problem with that much support? Well, the median household income in America is just over $50,000, which averages out to $137.13 a day. To put it another way, being on welfare now pays the equivalent of $30.00 an hour for a 40-hour week, while the average job pays $25.00 an hour. Wrong, the cost includes the cost of administering these benefits (paying government employees).

And over time there will be more and more states in which this is true.

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Universal Background Check

Jerry,

The urge to Do Something federally regarding gun control seems to be coalescing around "universal background check". IE, no gun transfers whatsoever without the recipient passing a background check in a national database of people barred from firearms possession.

This may well pass, being the sort of thing that’s politically hard to argue against. Who could fail to support "keeping guns out of the hands of criminals"? (Never mind that it won’t do that; 3/4ths of weapons currently used by criminals are either bought retail through already-illegal "straw purchasers" or outright stolen.)

I see a couple of problems, however. First, there’s the minor one of Constitutional authority. Where is the Federal government empowered to regulate private citizen-to-citizen intrastate transfers of anything? (This will no doubt be answered by stretching the Commerce clause even farther beyond recognition, of course.)

Then there’s the major problem: There’s no practical way to enforce such a law that doesn’t boil down to national gun registration.

It would most likely end up as a sporadically (selectively) enforced sham whose main practical effect would be to push millions of citizens into explicitly defying Federal law. We already are said to commit "three felonies a day" in unwitting violation of the huge mass of Federal law. (I probably hit my quota this weekend in a routine bit of home maintenance.) It cannot be a good thing to push a large fraction of the citizenry from being unconscious members of "Ham Sandwich Nation" to being conscious outlaws.

Or it could include record-keeping and reporting requirements that would be a conclusive step toward a national database of who owns what guns. Retail sales data is already recorded and preserved, albeit restricted (for now) to being used only in tracing specific guns used in crimes. "I sold it (or bought it) privately" is currently a sufficient answer to any gun no longer being where the Federal retail sales records show. Pass a universal background check law that’s practically enforceable, and it could soon instead be the admission of (yet another) Federal felony.

grumpily

Porkypine

Your papers, please.

Jerry Pournelle

At

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senators-near-a-deal-on-background-checks-for-most-private-gun-sales/2013/02/23/d55e5f4a-7d0c-11e2-82e8-61a46c2cde3d_story.html

"Democrats say that keeping records of private sales is necessary to enforce any new law and because current federal law requires licensed firearm dealers to keep records. Records of private sales also would help law enforcement trace back the history of a gun used in a crime, according to Democratic aides. Republicans, however, believe that records of private sales could put an undue burden on gun owners or could be perceived by gun rights advocates as a precursor to a national gun registry."

"Could be perceived", eh? A good rule of thumb is, if the government has the data, sooner or later someone will be in charge who’ll use it.

So, Senate Dems want the essentials of a national gun registry, while Senate Reps want to compromise on merely making outlaws of a major slice of their voters.

Here’s hoping the House Reps have a little more backbone.

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Jerry,

I’ve realized since sending my first note that the Codevilla piece explains something that’s puzzled the hell out of me since last summer.

Do you recall my writing you when it became clear that Romney was going to win the nomination, that oh well, at least his conduct in the primaries proved we had a candidate who knew how to gutter fight? Then, come the main campaign, he inexplicably played nice and lost.

Codevilla calls it. The Establishment Republicans are still traumatized by the New Deal. They don’t dare hope to beat the Democrats; they believe the best they can do is join them as junior partners in a ruling coalition and modestly reduce their mismanagement of the economy.

From that point of view, the Democrats are merely the competition. The two-thirds of the Republican Party that actually wants to beat the Democrats and restore the old Republic are the deadly enemy.

Yes, the country would have been better off if Romney had won – Obama now is pushing even harder down a very destructive path. But next time, we need to nominate someone who actually understands the need to beat the Democrats, not merely moderate them.

Porkypine

Well, yes. That was what Newt overcame: a Republican establishment that simply wanted to exist in tranquility. His Contract with America changed all that. But when Newt left Congress, there was a feeding frenzy resulting in disaster, and the Establishment limped up and explained it all. Republicans can’t govern because they can’t restrain themselves. That isn’t true, but it can be a danger: why should the departure of Newt Gingrich unleash the greedy ghouls? And then came 9-11 and we decided on war. Deficit spending became traditional…

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Ruling Class vs The Country 

This Angelo Codevilla piece in Forbes looks at current political party fundamentals, with more hope than many – me included – have been feeling lately.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/02/20/as-country-club-republ icans- link-up-with-the-democratic-ruling-class-millions-of-voters-are-orphan ed/

Porkypine

Angelo is a good cold blooded analyst. He used to work for me at Pepperdine. Glad to see he is still doing well.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Nothing there that you haven’t mentioned many times, save his explanation of WHY the CCRepubs are that way.

I’m one of those annoying kids who asks "why" a lot, and won’t really buy off on anything till I understand the why of it. Motive matters a lot if you’re trying to predict behavior.

Codevilla’s explanation – traumatized by decades of losing to the New Dealers, thus deeply committed to "if you can’t beat ’em join ’em" – plus the McArdle "New Mandarins" piece – slots right in with what else I know. Always a satisfying feeling when the pieces fall into a coherent pattern.

Convincing the CCR’s we really can beat the Dems so they shouldn’t yet again pull a Stanley at Bosworth backstab can’t be neglected, but isn’t sufficient. The key is what Codevilla points out – a third or so of nominal Dems don’t agree with the current statist push. The potential realignment needs a better name than the "country" party though…

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The mandarinization of America

The column :

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/21/america-s-new-mandarins.html

My takeaway is that it’s all very well to talk about providing food and medical care for the poor. How about providing them with the opportunity to be something other than poor? As it is, we’re building a society where only those with graduate degrees from Princeton can go on to success at large firms– we are increasingly ruled by people whose main qualifications are academic achievement, people who are good at taking tests.

"They really are very bright and hardworking. It’s just that they’re also prone to be conformist, risk averse, obedient, and good at echoing the opinions of authority, because that is what this sort of examination system selects for.

The even greater danger is that they become more and more removed from the people they are supposed to serve. Since I moved to Washington, I have had series of extraordinary conversations with Washington journalists and policy analysts, in which I remark upon some perfectly ordinary facet of working-class, or even business-class life, only to have this revelation met with amazement."

You think about it, that’s exactly what we have in President Obama: A product of the Mandarin system with no real experience outside of it.

It took five thousand years, total humiliation by foreign powers for China, and a bloody revolution to drop the system and rediscover capitalism. Here’s hoping we don’t have to go through anywhere near the same difficulties.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

It is not a new concept, of course. Wittfogel had much to say on the subject. The temptation of smart people to control the lives of others is great. Adams, who was certainly smarter than the average bear, concluded that “we in America believe that each man is the best judge of his own interest.” This is summed in the notion of liberty. Of course that means being free to do stupid things including falling for con schemes, leading to the temptation to make ever more complex laws and regulations, the result of which are often a cure worse than the disease.

‘Twas ever thus.

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One of Us.

> But I don’t miss TV. I do worry about not being connected. I wasn’t for most of my life, and now the prospect of a few hours or even a day of not being wired is scary.

For someone approaching his 80th birthday in a few months (congrats on that!), you do a superb job at making the "generation gap" appear over-hyped!

Curiously, I expect my grandmother to start using Facebook some time this year; she didn’t care for it the last time she tried it, but her most recent exposure to my own account delighted her with the virtual torrent of up-to-date information about those family members that don’t visit as often as perhaps they should…

One of us. One of us…

Michael Mol

Well, thank you …

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Brian Bilbrey, one of my long time advisors and the operator of the ISP that provided web access for Chaos Manor for more than a decade, recently got his degree, so I induced him to write something about it.

None of the details are very interesting. It’s not like I waited until I was 95 to finish the degree I started at 18 … that might be interesting.

I just took a couple of classes at a time while working full time. I maintained a 4.0 throughout, and graduated Summa Cum Laude in Computer Information Technology. All of the last 5 years of work were online through University of Maryland University College, and I worked my ass off. Some classes had proctored finals on campus, but there was strong drive to write more papers… I guess that’s "better", but I’m really good at computer-based finals – I knocked down two of them back to back one Saturday morning in about an hour and a half.

Some correspondents in the world have stated that online education is a watered-down version of the real (and real expensive) thing – face time in a classroom with professors. Well … teaching assistants being paid a pittance is who you really spend time with in classrooms. Personally, I think it’s down to the student. I was a terrible student when I started, thirty-odd years ago. Why wouldn’t a school want the money, regardless of student academic achievement. Yet I was invited to take my custom elsewhere. In the intervening decades, I took a few classes at other institutions, but didn’t get rolling properly until I started up with UMUC in 2008. I’m a much better student at this stage of my life.

Online I had a few less-than-stellar instructors, a fair number of pretty good ones, and a few absolutely superb teachers. One of the best of the latter is Charles Neimeyer, who taught History of War. He’s also the Director and Chief of Marine Corps History at Marine Corps University. I also had some good writing courses, and as long as the instructor had command of the English language, things went pretty well. Most of my schoolwork was technology-related though, in pursuit of the CIT degree. A lot of the world (especially the technology side of things) has changed dramatically since I started taking college courses in 1979. So I learned a goodly amount from every course, even the silly required courses. Learning is always good.

That said, I’m glad to have time to be down in the woodshop, building stuff in my spare time, again.

best,

.brian

The moral of the story is that it’s never too late.

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National Security

Hi

The following tells about DHS "stealing" a new boat on importation from a very suspect country.

http://uncrunched.com/2013/02/21/the-department-of-homeland-security-stole-my-boat-today/

Roland Hill

The Iron Law at work. I have met bureaucrats like that. It makes me long for the institution of paladins.

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Jerry: A ‘fluffy’ article on a weak nuclear force reactor. The science might explain the ‘false positive’ cold fusion results.

http://www.gizmag.com/nasa-lenr-nuclear-reactor/26309/

Chris C

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Daughter of Time

Jerry,

Apparently you have readers around here – when I went to reserve a copy of The Daughter of Time at the city library website after your recommendation, there were two people already ahead of me, and several more shortly after. I finished it last night; a fine short read and a fascinating slice of history. (Yes, I’m going to return it today so the next in line can get to it.)

It occurs to me that it may be just as well the scheming and ruthless Tudors displaced the arguably popular and benevolent Richard III. The formidable British clandestine services that were key to winning the great wars of the twentieth century got their start under the Tudors.

Without those centuries of devious covert tradition (much of it passed on to the US at the start of WW II) this would be a very different world, likely not for the better.

thanks for the recommendation!

Henry

The British Security Services pretty well began with Walsingham…

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