Monthly Archives: November 2011

Mail 700 Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Not surprised

Dr. Pournelle —

I can’t say I’m surprised by this. I know some who welcome such behavior.

"China Threatens Massive Venting of Super Greenhouse Gases in Attempt to Extort Billions as UNFCCC Meeting Approaches"

" In the run-up to the international climate negotiations in Durban later this month, China has responded to efforts to ban the trading of widely discredited HFC-23 offsets by threatening to release huge amounts of the potent industrial chemical into the atmosphere unless other nations pay what amounts to a climate ransom. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-threatens-massive-venting-of-super-greenhouse-gases-in-attempt-to-extort-billions-as-unfccc-meeting-approaches-2011-11-08

It never works to pay the Danegeld.

Pieter

And then there’s this:

Severe Defense Problems

This is a problem I’ve known about for years; you’ve been aware of it for at least a year — I emailed about this before.  Well, our government is still "talking" and "writing" about it:

<.>

"Sprinkling" sounds like a fairly harmless practice, but in the hands of sophisticated counterfeiters it could deceive a major weapons manufacturer and possibly endanger the lives of U.S. troops.

It’s a process of mixing authentic electronic parts with fake ones in hopes that the counterfeits will not be detected when companies test the components for multimillion-dollar missile systems, helicopters and aircraft. It was just one of the brazen steps described Tuesday at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing examining the national security and economic implications of suspect counterfeit electronics – mostly from China – inundating the Pentagon’s supply chain.

</>

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MILITARY_COUNTERFEIT_PARTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-11-08-13-41-48

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

It is a traditional Chinese business practice to establish relations with a customer, then slowly over time degrade the product delivered until the customer complains. This is described in stories out of China dating back hundreds of years, involving both British and Japanese customers. It was not considered unethical by Chinese merchants.

But of course we now get a lot of our electronics including military electronics from Chinese factories. And most of our Internet stuff including routers.

NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, summers are cooler, winters are getting colder

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/05/ncdc-data-shows-that-the-contiguous-usa-has-not-warmed-in-the-past-decade-summers-are-cooler-winters-are-getting-colder/

"So according the the National Climatic Data Center, it seems clear that for at least the last 10 years, there has been a cooling trend in the Annual mean temperature of the contiguous United States."

I was also interested in the discovery that 1934 was hotter than 1998 before it was cooler.

Graves

The evidence continues to come in: it’s not getting hotter just now. We are not on as long a cooling trend as we had in the 1970’s that caused so much concern about the possibility of a New Ice Age, but it has been a decade. Whether that applies to the entire Earth is a matter not easily settled because the average temperature of the Earth depends more on your model – the weights given to certain observations, whether you take air temperatures in the shade or exposed to the radiant environment, etc. – than anything else. By manipulating the samples and the weights you can get a significant change in the overall average temperature.

I think we can say that the way to bet is a slow rise in temperature since 1800 at about a degree a century; and superimposed on that linear model is the cyclical solar sunspot cycle; and over that a longer cycle whose cause we don’t know yet. We think it’s warming, but over the millennia we are still in an remission of a longer Ice Age. I don’t think the climate models know how to deal with that.

What Was Life Like In The Little Ice Age? – Part I

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/what-was-life-like-in-the-little-ice-age/

Life during the little ice age, both old world and new, northern and southern hemisphere.

For those who think it was just Europe.

Don’t be suprised if this winter is exceptionally cold, there is considerable data to show that we are in for a mild liltle ice age for the next several decades caused by a solar quieting which will likwely go for at least two solar cycles *we are not halfway through the first one yet, the next will be colder), and this winter we are into La Nina, which always results in cold. Individual results in differenct areas of the world may vary.

Legatus

So far as I can tell, there are enough fudge factors in the samples and weights used to calculate average temperatures to allow considerable swings in the final averages. I conclude that I do not ‘believe’ in any model that cannot take initial conditions in 1900 and output something similar to what was observed; I certainly would not trust such a model to predict the temperature in 2100. Why should I?

I am aware of the arguments that say there are no other factors involved so the models have to be more or less rights, but I am not convinced. I don’t know if we know all the factors. Arrhenius calculated some ‘extra’ warming would happen in the 20^th Century due to industrial CO2, but I have yet to see that anyone has shown more warming in the 20^th Century than there was in the 19^th.

On the coming ‘Cold Fusion’:

Rossi’s E-Cat

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Just FYI, Rossi has a very, um, colorful past. He has been convicted and served prison sentences at least twice, once for smuggling gold, and once for claiming to have a process to convert garbage into oil (Petroldragon), which according to prosecutors, consisted of adding lime to the waste before dumping it in a landfill.

He also claimed to have invented a thermo-electric "heat-to-electricity" device that was five times more efficient than anything available. He convinced the Army to put money in to it, but never produced a working device. Here’s a link to the Army’s report: http://dodfuelcell.cecer.army.mil/library_items/Thermo(2004).pdf

Sincerely,

John Bresnahan

I have no more information. I do know there are Rossi believers and Rossi deniers, and I know people in each group.

CERN FTL Data Accumulation

Jerry,

Concerning the letter today regarding the observation of apparent FTL neutrinos being a "statistical fluke," I think they were referring to the observation from the Dutch scientist that you posted at https://jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=2624 .

(link to http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2394747,00.asp#fbid=iYm2szmfdD7 dated 15 October)

That said, I’ve been checking the CERN web site and have come across:

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/CERNBulletin/2011/45/News%20Articles/1394597?ln=en

Posted 7 Nov 2011: since 21 October CERN has been conducting test runs of an approach to obtain better timing definition for next year’s larger run of induced neutrino measurements.

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/CERNBulletin/2011/44/News%20Articles/1392338?ln=en

Posted 24 Oct 2011: Theorists have been looking at the data, but "(currently) there is no theoretical model that can accommodate the measurement." This reports a workshop on theoretical explanations on 14 October, before the ostensible date of publication of the Dutch paper.

So bottom line CERN has not yet accepted the "Dutch paper" as a contra-indication.

Jim

So we can hope the FTL is real, although I would not advise anyone to bet it that way.

Hello Jerry,

How could ANYONE speak harshly about a government that provides a service like this?:

http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/health-care/8294-walnuts-are-drugs-says-fda

It is examples like this that provide affirmation, as if any were needed, that a government (like our current one) that consumes 50% or more of the gross national product is, by all rights, just a START.

One can only imagine our idyllic existence when it has, finally, expanded to 100% and provides optimum solutions to ALL our problems. Or at least all of them that anyone is willing to complain about in public.

Bob Ludwick

The Iron Law in action. The government engages in a very large number or activities that we don’t need and can’t afford. Some are silly. Not news but we often need reminding.

Letter from England

The risk when a government releases a computer virus to the wild–people will copy it. http://preview.tinyurl.com/44kowgr

The UKBA decided to imitate the TSA, and ended up in a pit: http://preview.tinyurl.com/6g64tr7

Bankers challenged by Church for having slipped their moral moorings. http://preview.tinyurl.com/6fbxloz

Patent bubble? http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/04/is_there_a_patent_price_bubble/

Mandatory teacher training for university academics? http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=26&storycode=418019&c=1

Visa casualties: http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=26&storycode=418020&c=1

—

"We do not understand how a country,… can produce people who seem to be acting without thinking, let alone making serious efforts to investigate the consequences of their actions." (Mary Evans in the Times Higher Education)

Harry Erwin

UAVs & Pilots

Common sense has no place in military thinking.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htairfo/articles/20111107.aspx

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.;Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq;Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time;Distinguished Expert, TV remote control;Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

We devoted some space to the operations and doctrines requirements for employing a strategy of technology in, guess what, The Strategy of Technology by Possony, Pournelle, and Kane.

does this bear hate Quantas?

Dr. Pournelle,

Possible "Koala?" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_cuscus

-d

Coup Against Google

The coup against Google forms in 2011:

<.>

Yahoo Inc , Microsoft Corp and AOL Inc have set up an advertising partnership as Google and Facebook’s online ad dominance grows.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/microsoft-aol-yahoo-idUSN1E7A724520111108

Make no mistake, this begins cooperation, communication, and consensus among three major Google advesaries — this could be a serious concern for Google in years to come. If this alliance could get Apple on board, this would be a commanding, powerful alliance. I do not see an alliance with MS and Apple, however. Though, I believe with Steve Jobs — and his historical conflicts with Bill Gates — out of the way this might be possible. It will be interesting to see what shape Apple takes with Jobs gone — both in terms of products and business strategies. But, anyone who knows the history of windows development, etc. knows that Jobs would never work with MS — never.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Interesting questions. We can wait and see…

One WTF item and something pretty cool

Not sure if you heard about this story:

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/08/obama-couldnt-wait-his-new-christmas-tree-tax/

It sounds like something completely unnecessary. Of course, this is just one more example of the Iron law.

On a lighter note, a pretty cool rendition of "Welcome to the Jungle":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AYEgwwCYWw&feature=share

Erik

Bunny Inspectors on steroid megadoses?

You thought bunny inspectors were bad? Wait until you see the Christmas Tree Commission.

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/08/obama-couldnt-wait-his-new-christmas-tree-tax/

Res ipsa loquitur, or some such.

Hm. Maybe some disgruntled Muslim could make a case for this being a clear violation of separation of church and state, Christmas being a religious holiday and all that…

John

I understand that President Obama has removed the Christmas Tree Tax, but I am not sure. Thanks

iPAD Halloween Costume

Jerry,

You may remember that I was struggling to find a real use for the iPAD. Well, this engineer may have just the thing:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20127922-501465/a-bloody-incredible-ipad-halloween-costume/

Tracy Walters

Jerry,

Subj: A blind spot for wind energy

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/11/05/wind-farms-disrupting-radar-scientists-say/

Jim

There are places where wind makes sense, but not so many as most think. Intermittent power requires storage capabilities which generally cost more than the power itself.

Subject: Record flight is step toward HYPERSONIC SPACE AIRSHIP

I suggest going to the site, there are some interesting animations:

Tracy Walters

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/02/space_airships/

Record flight is step toward HYPERSONIC SPACE AIRSHIP Ion-drive dirigibles to orbit from aerial ‘Dark Sky’ base By Lewis Page <http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/?story_url=/2011/11/02/space_airships/>

Posted in Space <http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/space/> , 2nd November 2011 13:02 GMT <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/02/>

Inventors in America are claiming an altitude record for airships after a recent test flight in which an unmanned electrically-propelled helium dirigible successfully manoeuvred under power at 95,085 feet above the Black Rock Desert in Nevada. The "Tandem" craft is intended to demonstrate the first stage of radical plans which would see enormous, permanently inhabited "Dark Sky Stations" floating high in the atmosphere at the edge of space – to act as bases for radical hypersonic airships which would slowly fly themselves into orbit over a period of days using hybrid ion drive propulsion.

Somewhat more conventional extreme-high-altitude airships along the lines of the Tandem, flown above Nevada on October 22, would serve as shuttles carrying people and cargoes from the surface up to the colossal, mile-wide Dark Sky air/spaceports floating at 140,000 feet up.

The "Airship to Orbit" scheme comes to us from American DIY volunteer space collective JP Aerospace <http://www.jpaerospace.com/> [1], founded by engineer John Powell, which has been developing high altitude balloons, rockets and combo rocket/balloon missions (aka rockoons, or in the parlance of our own Special Projects Bureau, ballockets) since 1979. JP Aerospace has now moved on beyond conventional rockoon flights to work on the use of small unmanned Dark Sky Stations <http://www.jpaerospace.com/dssoverview.html> [2] as bases for vertical rocket launches starting from high up on the edge of space.

Both the Tandem and the prototype Dark Sky Station already flown use conventional helium balloons for lift, linked together by lightweight carbon-fibre trusses slung beneath. The Tandem features electrically driven propellors designed for the thin air found up at 100,000 feet and higher. One particularly neat trick is JP Aerospace’s use of tied-down bags on the ground in which to inflate their balloons, meaning that there’s no need to wait for windless conditions to make a launch.

Future manned ground-to-Dark-Sky ships and Dark Sky bases would use similar but more polished structures which would resemble huge cylinders of helium with lightweight keels running along them. Technically the ships would not be blimps – that’s the term for airships without a rigid structure, which maintain their shape purely by internal pressure – but semi-rigids.

According to Powell, the two different types of ship and the intervening aerial base stations are vital as neither craft could survive the flight regime of the other. The vast, flimsy orbital vessels would be torn apart by the dense winds of the lower atmosphere, and the sturdier surface-launched jobs could never reach orbital velocity.

Behold the Mach 20 hypersonic hybrid ion rocket semi-rigid airship!

The underlying concepts at least of the surface-to-base craft and the Dark Sky outposts themselves seem to be feasible, but JP Aerospace has understandably yet to really do much in the way of flight tests on the mighty orbital rocket airships. Are they really feasible? Can massive gossamer envelopes full of helium gradually boost themselves up to Mach 20+ using slow-acting electrical ion drives (such as those used <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/07/goce_engines/> [3] to keep low-flying satellites up to orbital speed despite drag from the upper traces of the atmosphere)? Even though there’s very little air up there, surely a giant, hypersonic rocket airship is a big ask.

Powell recently gave an interview <http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/10/floating-airship-could-radically-reduce.html> [4] on the subject to nextbigfuture.com, in which he points out that upper-atmosphere weather balloons have already achieved Mach 10 as long ago as the 1960s, so that in his view Mach 20 isn’t impossible with modern materials. In fact in his judgement what’s called for is not a super-low-thrust but ultra-efficient ion drive, nor a conventional chemical rocket, but rather a hybrid of the two – which he describes as "the most efficient chemical rocket ever, or the least efficient ion rocket". The key issue will be whether enough electrical power can be stored at a low enough weight – either using fuel cells or batteries, solar panels can’t do the job – to get the ships up to orbital poke. One cunning aspect of the plan is that the ships will not need any heat shield for re-entry as they will slow down so gradually (using drag in the evanescent upper atmosphere) that no appreciable heating will result.

Powell and his crew certainly don’t lack for ambition. The idea is that the mighty Dark Sky floating spaceports would also carry telecoms equipment and tourist hotels to generate additional revenue on top of that gleaned from orbital launch. Their analysis suggests that the hypersonic airships could haul cargo into space for as little as $100 per pound in the near term and eventually just $1 per pound – and Powell sees manned flights to the Dark Sky region as soon as 2013, and permanent inhabited bases there from 2021. He says that JP Aerospace never makes a flight unless it will pay for itself, with revenue coming so far from advertising, telecoms experiments and aerospace tests for companies such as Lockheed.

It’s interesting stuff, but progress has been slow – 33 years after commencement Powell and Co and are still doing small unmanned tests on the more achievable parts of their scheme. Larger craft such as the "Ascenders" – more like the massive V-shaped craft envisaged for the future ground-to-Dark Sky leg – are not flying at the moment. We probably shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for the hypersonic space airships.

Even so, Powell’s team is plainly one to watch, especially in light of the Reg’s own aspirations <http://www.theregister.co.uk/science/special_projects_bureau/> [5] in the rockoon/ballocket space plane arena.

Professor fired

Professor fired for making students think?

http://www.good.is/post/was-a-professor-fired-for-requiring-students-to-think/

–Gary P.

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Is this a consequence of the government getting involved in employment

relationships? Where hiring and firing decisions are based upon evidence,

not good judgment. So objective criterion is needed.